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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Monday Edition as we try to bring
Speaker 3: you the most important stories of the day here and
Speaker 3: in Washington. It has a lot to do with the
Speaker 3: government shutdown looming less than a week off. This is
Speaker 3: Friday now we're talking about. There was a hope that
Speaker 3: over the weekend a plan would emerge. Sunday night, we
Speaker 3: were told it did not happen. If you're following along
Speaker 3: on our home game. The government begins shutting down Friday
Speaker 3: and would be totally shut the following Friday, March one
Speaker 3: and March eight. We're going to talk to Jack Fitzpatrick
Speaker 3: about this a little bit later on this hour as
Speaker 3: the dear colleague letters start flying again, as we also
Speaker 3: pick up the pieces coming out of South Carolina. This
Speaker 3: is what we're going to focus on for the next
Speaker 3: little bit here, and a twenty point blowout for Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: who has now swept all of the early states. This
Speaker 3: has never happened before. I know you thought it was
Speaker 3: going to happen because everyone predicted it. But let's just
Speaker 3: stop down for a moment. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina,
Speaker 3: and yes, the Virgin Islands all for Donald Trump. Unprecedented
Speaker 3: in a contested primary. We have never seen this before.
Speaker 3: And so now Nicki Haley is hearing what she has
Speaker 3: been fearing that the money might be going away. The
Speaker 3: headline on the terminal billionaire GOP donors pivot to Congress
Speaker 3: as Haley run feeds, we're talking about the Koch Brothers here.
Speaker 3: Americans for Prosperity Action had spent tens of millions trying
Speaker 3: to create a real challenge to Donald Trump here by
Speaker 3: way of Nicki Haley. And as we are reporting now,
Speaker 3: the political network created by the billionaire industrialist announcing that
Speaker 3: it's suspending its support for Niki Haley and it's going
Speaker 3: down ballot, House and Senate races. That's where we start
Speaker 3: our conversation with Mark Niquette, reporting for Bloomberg National Politics
Speaker 3: and Government Reporter. He's the man on the trail and
Speaker 3: it's great to see you, Mark, after another primary weekend
Speaker 3: will remind everybody that a week from tomorrow is Super Tuesday.
Speaker 3: Nikki Haley says she's in for the duration, at least
Speaker 3: through next week. Mark, Is that what you expect.
Speaker 4: That's what she's telling us. I mean, presidential candidates only
Speaker 4: get out of races when the money drives up, and
Speaker 4: they can't keep the lights on when they're necessarily losing.
Speaker 4: So she's pledged to stay in the race until Super Tuesday.
Speaker 4: Give these states, you know, these twenty one states that
Speaker 4: are voting here in the next ten days a chance
Speaker 4: to vote, and we'll see. I guess she'll probably have
Speaker 4: enough money to stay in through that point. But as
Speaker 4: you said, if the donors keep leaving her now, deciding
Speaker 4: that she can't ultimately win or they don't want to
Speaker 4: keep funding her campaign, she won't just have the money
Speaker 4: to continue after that.
Speaker 3: How important is the coke money going away here? I
Speaker 3: feel funny asking you that, Mark, but you know.
Speaker 5: What I mean.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think very little bit is important.
Speaker 4: I mean, this was a source of funding for her
Speaker 4: campaign that again was sustaining her even though she wasn't
Speaker 4: winning any elections. So not having that access to that money,
Speaker 4: I think you know, one, it would be less money
Speaker 4: that she has available, but it could also signal to
Speaker 4: other donors that, hey, this is not a good investment anymore.
Speaker 4: You know, maybe I should pull my money as well.
Speaker 3: Nikki Hilly's got events scheduled in the coming days. You'll
Speaker 3: probably be at some of them, if I know, you
Speaker 3: market a qutte Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, and Utah. What is
Speaker 3: she actually trying to accomplish on Super Tuesday having not
Speaker 3: won a state yet?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think she's trying to hold out to be
Speaker 4: the alternative in case Trump for whatever reason is not
Speaker 4: able to continue or if it's some point down in
Speaker 4: the process here you know, he's not able to be
Speaker 4: the nominee. I mean, I think it's pretty clear at
Speaker 4: this point she's she's not going to win enough delegates
Speaker 4: to you know, to be the nominee. But I think
Speaker 4: the strategy is to win enough delegates to be relevant
Speaker 4: and be sort of the alternative in case Trump some
Speaker 4: for some again, for some whatever reason, you know, can't
Speaker 4: continue as a nominee.
Speaker 3: Is there a state or are there are a couple of
Speaker 3: states she's targeting though for for actual ws on Super
Speaker 3: Tuesday to say, hey, I can actually do this. You
Speaker 3: can't come in second place forever. Mark, and I realized
Speaker 3: that she's got some delegates. She could drive them all
Speaker 3: the way to the convention if she wants, right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think there's there are some states
Speaker 4: I don't know specifically, you know what she's targeting, but
Speaker 4: you know, states in the Western US, for example, and
Speaker 4: states that have you know, more liberal rules in terms
Speaker 4: of who can participate in the primary where she might
Speaker 4: do better. You know, for example, she was able to
Speaker 4: do better and in New Hampshire than South Carolina because
Speaker 4: Democrats were able to participate in the Republican primary. So
Speaker 4: I think the thinking is that she could tract you know,
Speaker 4: some Democrats or independence to play in the Republican primary
Speaker 4: and some of these Super Tuesday states that can help
Speaker 4: elevate her. But again, she's not shown the ability to
Speaker 4: you know, actually win these states. You know, I don't
Speaker 4: think she's got higher than forty three percent in any
Speaker 4: of these primaries.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's it's really something, Mark.
Speaker 3: I appreciate your joining us stay in touch as we
Speaker 3: get into Super Tuesday, we've got more to ask Mark
Speaker 3: Niquette find him on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 3: He's an important part of our campaign coverage. Now as
Speaker 3: we add the voice of Jim Ellis, I've been looking
Speaker 3: forward to this conversation. Ellis Insight, the founder of the
Speaker 3: election analysis service. Jim, it's good to see you. Welcome
Speaker 3: to Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube as well. We've got
Speaker 3: a lot of folks here watching and listening, wondering what
Speaker 3: happens next. I want to go down ballot with you,
Speaker 3: but before we do that, your insights following Super Tuesday
Speaker 3: or South Carolina or rather and heading for Super Tuesday?
Speaker 3: Is this actually Nikki Haley's last stand next week?
Speaker 6: Well, thanks so much for having me. You think it
Speaker 6: would be? She loses basically sixty forty in her home state,
Speaker 6: remember before a Republican electorate that had propelled her to
Speaker 6: being governor twice. I was amused a little bit that
Speaker 6: your earlier reporter indicated that Donald Trump was the incumb
Speaker 6: but I don't think that's the case in South Carolina.
Speaker 6: So that some people are claiming that Trump didn't do
Speaker 6: as well in the suburbs as he should have around
Speaker 6: Charleston and Columbia, but still sixty forty and the other
Speaker 6: person's home state. That's a pretty good indication that this
Speaker 6: race is over. So we'll see. We have Michigan tomorrow,
Speaker 6: and that's another indication for both Donald Trump and President
Speaker 6: Biden as to where we might be headed. And we
Speaker 6: should have official nominees here very early in March, if
Speaker 6: not by Super Tuesday, then certainly by March nineteenth, when
Speaker 6: Ohio and Illinois and Arizona vote.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting, Jim, we're all Joe Biden more closely
Speaker 3: than the Republican contest in Michigan tomorrow, maybe because there
Speaker 3: just isn't that much to watch when it comes to
Speaker 3: Joe Biden. And this is a very special circumstance that
Speaker 3: could present a problem for him nationally when it comes
Speaker 3: to Arab American and Muslim American voters. But as far
Speaker 3: as the Republican primary is concerned, and like I said,
Speaker 3: I want to move down ballot with you. But when
Speaker 3: you listened to Nicki Haley last night, does she have
Speaker 3: a point? In Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump won with
Speaker 3: about half the vote. We saw what he won with
Speaker 3: in South Carolina. If you can't win your whole party,
Speaker 3: how do you win the general?
Speaker 6: Well, that's pretty common. This is a contested race, after all,
Speaker 6: remember how many candidates began running here. It's not as
Speaker 6: if you're unopposed for reelection really, as President Biden is
Speaker 6: or has most presidents have been in the past. So
Speaker 6: this is an open election. And the fact that he's
Speaker 6: doing as well as he has, I think is an
Speaker 6: indication that he's in very strong shape headed into a
Speaker 6: jen election with the United Republican Party. I mean, no
Speaker 6: one really has had as strong as internal numbers over
Speaker 6: the course of his term in office and post as
Speaker 6: Donald Trump has. So I think he's in good shape.
Speaker 3: Elli's insight right now on Bloomberg as we look to
Speaker 3: Super Tuesday, not presidential, but let's look at some of
Speaker 3: these Senate races, Jim. Starting with California. This is a
Speaker 3: big one, a lot of money spent, a lot of media,
Speaker 3: and a lot of attention here. Adam Schiff is looking
Speaker 3: like he's in good place, in a good place going
Speaker 3: into it. He's certainly spent some money, but it's a
Speaker 3: jungle primary. As you can explain to our audience here,
Speaker 3: this has almost as much to do with second place
Speaker 3: as it does first, doesn't it.
Speaker 6: It certainly does so. A jungle primary means everybody's on
Speaker 6: the same ballot, and three states use this for their
Speaker 6: primary elections, California, of course, being won. It began in Louisiana,
Speaker 6: but they're going to change and go back to a
Speaker 6: partisan primary, and Washington is the other state that uses it,
Speaker 6: so everybody's on the same ballot, regardless of political party
Speaker 6: or percentage attained. The first two finishers here in California
Speaker 6: will advance to the November general election. Adam Schiff appears
Speaker 6: to be set in position one, but there's a real
Speaker 6: dogfight in petition too, and it's one of the more
Speaker 6: unique campaigns we've ever seen in American history because you
Speaker 6: have both Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, congress Woman Porter
Speaker 6: from Irvine in Orange County. They're the two leading Democrats,
Speaker 6: and they're actually advertised to help Steve Garvey, or detract
Speaker 6: from Steve Garvey coming in second place. Remember Steve Gardy
Speaker 6: be former famous baseball player running for the Republicans and
Speaker 6: by claiming he's too conservative, and this obviously is a
Speaker 6: signal to conservative Republicans to vote for him. So Schiff
Speaker 6: wants Garvey in second place, and therefore he doesn't have
Speaker 6: to deal with a double Democratic general election, which would
Speaker 6: be highly competitive and highly expensive. He wants a republicanly
Speaker 6: ye next to him in the general, and Katie Porter
Speaker 6: is advertising to try to knock Garvey out of second
Speaker 6: place by claiming he won't support Donald Trump. So you
Speaker 6: have to go for this Eric early and so to
Speaker 6: help propel her in the second place. It's really a
Speaker 6: fascinating situation in California that'll be decided on March fifth.
Speaker 3: This is incredible maneuvering here before we move to another state. Jim,
Speaker 3: is it more likely that we will have a Democrat
Speaker 3: and a Republican then if they're both spending in that direction?
Speaker 6: Polding looks like Garvey is on the move if the
Speaker 6: polls are correct, but they're all very close, so it
Speaker 6: could go anyway, and it all depends on turnout. But
Speaker 6: I think there's a good chance right now that Garvey
Speaker 6: does get second place, and that would virtually elect Adam
Speaker 6: shiff in November.
Speaker 3: Fascinating, and that's going to be part of what we're
Speaker 3: talking about on Super Tuesday. It's not just presidential. Shortly thereafter, Jim,
Speaker 3: we moved to Ohio. That's the nineteenth of March of
Speaker 3: course shared Brown, who hasn't had to get on the
Speaker 3: campaign trail in a while. We're looking at a three
Speaker 3: way Republican race.
Speaker 5: What do we need to know?
Speaker 6: Well, that's an extremely important race for the Republicans, and
Speaker 6: this is a critical election cycle for the Republicans in
Speaker 6: the US Senate. They have to take advantage of a
Speaker 6: favorable map, and by that I mean of the thirty
Speaker 6: four center races the Democrats have to protect or defend
Speaker 6: twenty three, the Republicans only eleven, and they really don't
Speaker 6: have very many vulnerable seats. The Democrats think they've got
Speaker 6: a shot at Ted Cruz in Texas. I don't think
Speaker 6: that will be the case at the end of the day.
Speaker 6: It's really not the year to presidential year is not
Speaker 6: to win the year for a Democrat to win in Texas.
Speaker 6: So it really comes down to Republicans not only getting
Speaker 6: to fifty or to fifty one to get a bare majority.
Speaker 6: They need to pretty much run the table and get
Speaker 6: to fifty two, fifty three to fifty four to protect
Speaker 6: themselves against more unfavorable maps coming in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 6: Eight is we all know senators have six year terms
Speaker 6: and every two years a third of the senator is up,
Speaker 6: so this year it really helps the Republicans and they
Speaker 6: have to take advantage of this map. Ohio becomes one
Speaker 6: of the key states for them. The West Virginia race
Speaker 6: without Senator Mansion in that race looks like it's in
Speaker 6: the bag. So we're really an effectively fifty to fifty
Speaker 6: right now from an electoral standpoint, Ohio Montana being the
Speaker 6: next two that have to go for the Republicans for
Speaker 6: them to take advantage of this. In that Republican primary
Speaker 6: in Ohio, you have a three way race the Secretary
Speaker 6: of State Frank Leroose, state Senator Matt Dolan, whose family
Speaker 6: owns part of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and the
Speaker 6: third candidate, who both former President Trump and Senator jd
Speaker 6: Vance has endorsed, the businessman Oh my names, I'm scaping
Speaker 6: on his first name, Marino. That will have a three
Speaker 6: way race to win their nynation Bernie, thank you so much,
Speaker 6: and he is all three of them. Polls are very
Speaker 6: close in that race. It's a three way race and
Speaker 6: it's a I think frankly though, whichever one of the
Speaker 6: three wins, the Republicans are actually going to be in
Speaker 6: pretty good shape. I think each of those candidates would
Speaker 6: be strong enough to go up against shared Brown. And really,
Speaker 6: from Senator Brown standpoint, he's won tough elections in Ohio before,
Speaker 6: but the state has really moved to the right since
Speaker 6: his last election in twenty eighteen. And we have to
Speaker 6: remember these Senate terms are so long that the last
Speaker 6: time people like Senator Brown and Senator John Tester and
Speaker 6: Montana were on the ballot was twenty eighteen, and that
Speaker 6: was a good Democratic year, a wave most people thought
Speaker 6: for the Democrats, and so they were able to win
Speaker 6: in those years. And then the previous time they had
Speaker 6: twenty twelve, what was happening In twenty twelve, They had
Speaker 6: Barack Obama on the ballot running for reelection. They don't
Speaker 6: have that this time, and this year is going to
Speaker 6: be a much more difficult time for both Senator Brown
Speaker 6: and Senator Tester in those two critical states.
Speaker 5: Fascinating.
Speaker 3: This is why we wanted to talk to Jim Ellis
Speaker 3: in a real seminar as we look down ballot here
Speaker 3: specifically to the Senate, you have the wild card of
Speaker 3: Maryland and Larry Hogan, and we've got a real conversation Jim,
Speaker 3: I hope that you'll come talk to us on the
Speaker 3: regular here throughout the balance of this cycle. I'm really
Speaker 3: happy to have you on today and bring your expertise
Speaker 3: to our viewers and listeners. He's the founder of Ellis
Speaker 3: Insight Election analysis service. Jim Ellis, Thank you, sir for
Speaker 3: being part of the conversation today. Keep this all in
Speaker 3: mind as we go into Super Tuesday. It's not just
Speaker 3: Donald Trump and Nicki Haley we're talking about here with
Speaker 3: massive implications when it comes to yes, the Balance of
Speaker 3: Power on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 2: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.
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Speaker 3: The deer Colleague letters are starting to fly, which is
Speaker 3: never a good sign.
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.
Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power as
Speaker 3: we keep our eyes on midnight Friday. This is when
Speaker 3: the government's set to start shutting down here. And while
Speaker 3: we've been talking about it for weeks on this program
Speaker 3: while many folks had their attention.
Speaker 5: On other matters. It's still here and there's no deal.
Speaker 3: Lawmakers will get back Wednesday, at least the House, so
Speaker 3: they'll have three days to put this together.
Speaker 5: And that would be a land speed record.
Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer out with the deer colleague last night, accusing
Speaker 3: Republicans of playing politics with people's lives, and boy, it
Speaker 3: seems like we've seen this movie before. Jack Fitzpatrick seen
Speaker 3: it a lot of times. He's with us from Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Government and keeping an eye on things here on the Hill. Jack,
Speaker 3: I'm sure you're in for a couple of weeks. It's
Speaker 3: Friday followed by Friday, right, two different deadlines. There was
Speaker 3: talk of a deal emerging last night, that we might
Speaker 3: wake up Monday morning to having some kind of a
Speaker 3: deal on spending.
Speaker 5: It did not happen. Was that real was that media talk?
Speaker 7: It never seemed particularly realistic. It was floated out there.
Speaker 7: It was reported in a couple places. We had heard
Speaker 7: that some people involved in the negotiations hope to have
Speaker 7: something by Sunday night. But even late last week when
Speaker 7: it started coming out, two staffers from the Speaker's office said, no,
Speaker 7: that's not a plan. That's not something that's going to happen.
Speaker 7: So there's a bit of a back and forth on
Speaker 7: expectations setting. You then saw the dear colleague letter from
Speaker 7: Chuck Schumer come out late yesterday saying we hope to
Speaker 7: have a deal Sunday, but House Republicans are dragging this out.
Speaker 7: The Speaker then said, it's Democrats who are introducing new
Speaker 7: issues that weren't even in their own bills initially. There's
Speaker 7: some mudslinging going on. I think when you hear of
Speaker 7: expectations of oh, here's when it's going to come together,
Speaker 7: here's what we know is going to happen, you have
Speaker 7: to take it with a grain of salt. They are
Speaker 7: very likely going to take this up to the last
Speaker 7: minute if they do succeed in avoiding a shutdown. Yes,
Speaker 7: and there are maybe some games being played behind the
Speaker 7: scenes on expectation setting.
Speaker 3: So let's talk options here, and we can remind everyone
Speaker 3: that this is not the full government. This is four
Speaker 3: departments or four spending bills that would be expiring on Friday,
Speaker 3: and these are the easy ones, right. If you can't
Speaker 3: figure that out, the week later is going to be
Speaker 3: really something. The Speaker of the House has vowed to
Speaker 3: not do another continuing resolution a short term deal, although
Speaker 3: apparently there is talk.
Speaker 5: Of doing that. When will we know he's out of
Speaker 5: options that we either do a CR or close it down.
Speaker 7: That's another last minute issue, because we've heard from the Speaker,
Speaker 7: we've heard from others in House Republican leadership. It came
Speaker 7: out from Tom Emmer a little while back. They're not
Speaker 7: doing another continuing resolution. But if they don't have a
Speaker 7: deal that they can enact and they're not doing a CR,
Speaker 7: then it's a question of how long do you shut
Speaker 7: the government down? And that's what really builds pressure, and
Speaker 7: people crack under pressure sometimes. So look, it is very
Speaker 7: notable that House Republicans have said absolutely not, we do
Speaker 7: not want another CR. So that's the escape hatch if
Speaker 7: nothing else works. Anyway, so it's going to be a
Speaker 7: last minute question of do they need to buy a
Speaker 7: little more time. And it's worth keeping in mind that
Speaker 7: House Republicans in particular do not want to vote for
Speaker 7: a stopgap measure, and that is a factor that could
Speaker 7: lead us in full partial shutdown.
Speaker 3: They do hate that a lot of this we're told
Speaker 3: is coming down to policy writers. Is that still the case?
Speaker 3: Could that change when they come back Wednesday.
Speaker 7: That seems to be the case, And it's been pretty
Speaker 7: consistent that once they got the basic parameters of how
Speaker 7: much they're going to spend on defense, on non defense,
Speaker 7: on each bill, it was a matter of policy writers.
Speaker 7: There were a ton of policy writers and the House
Speaker 7: Republican measures. As I said, the Speaker then accused Democrats
Speaker 7: of adding things that they hadn't included in their own bills.
Speaker 7: But generally, what I've heard is a lot of things
Speaker 7: were not able to be negotiated by the people who
Speaker 7: are supposed to write the bills, the subcommittee chairs, and
Speaker 7: that was sent up to the full committee chairs and
Speaker 7: to leadership to hash out a great number of remaining
Speaker 7: policy rider issues that cover a lot of ground.
Speaker 5: So this is the granular stuff.
Speaker 3: Big picture is a meeting tomorrow, apparently at the White House.
Speaker 3: Joe Biden's invited Mike Johnson to come back with the
Speaker 3: other leaders. McConnell, Schumer, Jeffries will be there. What's the
Speaker 3: point if we've come.
Speaker 7: This far without a breakthrough, We're at a point now
Speaker 7: where pressure is a major part of the negotiations. In
Speaker 7: the news cycle. That may be more of a factor
Speaker 7: on Ukraine funding than funding the government. But like I mentioned,
Speaker 7: when you have a number of things that cannot be
Speaker 7: negotiated by the people who usually write these bills and
Speaker 7: it's kicked up to the top, there's you could call
Speaker 7: it a staring contest, a game of chicken. The pressure
Speaker 7: is building on the toughest issues, and this meeting may
Speaker 7: not be glad handing, but they'll get a sense of
Speaker 7: where they agree, where they disagree, who has an advantage,
Speaker 7: and who has a discisis.
Speaker 3: And they come out to the sticks. As they say
Speaker 3: in the business, there'll be a stake out in the driveway.
Speaker 3: Those microphones will be set up. Does Mike Johnson walk
Speaker 3: out in bad mouth Joe Biden or say that we
Speaker 3: actually see eye to eye on some things.
Speaker 7: It would be harder for him to say he sees
Speaker 7: eye to eye.
Speaker 5: It would harder politically.
Speaker 7: He's got to sell a lot to conservatives who do
Speaker 7: not want to deal with Joe Biden. He's in a
Speaker 7: tough spot. He's got a lot of members of his
Speaker 7: conference who do not want to vote for a stop gap.
Speaker 7: They don't want to vote for anything that could get
Speaker 7: past the Senate and get Biden's signature. So you know,
Speaker 7: a Kumbaya moment is not in the cards politically for
Speaker 7: the speaker.
Speaker 3: Well, that's going to be a riot. We'll be talking
Speaker 3: about it tomorrow. That is confirmed, right, Did they all
Speaker 3: accept the invite?
Speaker 5: They're going.
Speaker 7: They're all invited. It would be unusual if anybody's skipped.
Speaker 5: But Johnson's going is the point. Everyone else is just
Speaker 5: there to bear with.
Speaker 7: That's the two keys.
Speaker 2: Yes.
Speaker 3: Now, I don't know if they're going to talk about
Speaker 3: anything else, like say Ukraine. Maybe this is a very
Speaker 3: specific topic meeting here, but this is the other matter.
Speaker 3: As President Zelenski, who has been on quite a tour
Speaker 3: speaking of pressure lately, tells us that thirty one thousand
Speaker 3: Ukrainians have died in this war, the Ukrainian members of
Speaker 3: the military, and we're seeing this kind of last minute
Speaker 3: full court press from NATO members including Poland was on
Speaker 3: the air with US their foreign minister making the point
Speaker 3: here last week it was in Washington, DC. There's no
Speaker 3: sign of anything changing here, is.
Speaker 7: There not yet? But that's where the pressure comes in
Speaker 7: because there's been there have been little bits of movement.
Speaker 7: It's been pretty quiet in the last week or so,
Speaker 7: but when you saw the Centrist House members led by
Speaker 7: Brian Fitzpatrick, say well, we have a paired down proposal. Look,
Speaker 7: it doesn't look like they're about to attach something on
Speaker 7: Ukraine to one of these government funding bills. It's not
Speaker 7: moving that quickly, but the pressure is building. You see
Speaker 7: swing district members feel like they have to put something
Speaker 7: out there. It's a pressure campaign. I wouldn't say it's
Speaker 7: an absolute stasis. There has not been a lot of movement,
Speaker 7: not a lot of negotiating, but as the pressure builds,
Speaker 7: that's when you look for cracks and changes in people's.
Speaker 5: I'm glad you mentioned that this brings us to the
Speaker 5: idea of a discharge petition.
Speaker 3: That would be very rare, and we're told stop talking
Speaker 3: about it because that never happens, but it seems like
Speaker 3: it might this time. To see Fitzpatrick no relation to
Speaker 3: you on Sunday Morning television sitting there or the Republican
Speaker 3: talking about this happening. By the way, the flannel, I
Speaker 3: guess it's main It makes you wonder if we're getting
Speaker 3: closer to something here.
Speaker 5: Does Mike Johnson.
Speaker 3: Secretly hope that they do this and he doesn't have
Speaker 3: his fingerprints on it.
Speaker 7: That is one way in which a discharge petition is
Speaker 7: sometimes useful. That's probably the most obvious way for a
Speaker 7: discharged petition to work is if leadership isn't necessarily entirely
Speaker 7: opposed to putting a bill forward, but they have to
Speaker 7: go to the opponents and say, look, I had no choice. Yes,
Speaker 7: there are other ways. I think maybe even more important
Speaker 7: is if there are promises by Democrats to back him up,
Speaker 7: if there's a motion to vacate the chair and not
Speaker 7: allow his speakership to be kicked out. Yeah, because of this,
Speaker 7: that would relieve a lot of pressure on him and
Speaker 7: move him toward potentially favoring Ukraine. So those are two
Speaker 7: big questions there. With regard to the pressure on Mike
Speaker 7: Johnson's specific.
Speaker 3: Then the Senate would have to, I guess, handle or
Speaker 3: deal with whatever they sent back over there. And I
Speaker 3: bring that up because I'm just compelled by the headline
Speaker 3: that John Thune has decided to endorse Donald Trump. This
Speaker 3: is about as close to Mitch McConnell as you can
Speaker 3: get here in the chain of command, and I wonder
Speaker 3: how important that is when we've seen the hand of
Speaker 3: Donald Trump impact what's happening in the House to this extent.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it is a sign of the strength of Donald
Speaker 7: Trump in Republican politics that if you were harshly critical
Speaker 7: of him following January sixth, now you see those same
Speaker 7: people coming back to endorse Donald Trump. He's had a
Speaker 7: huge effect on these Ukraine negotiations. He hasn't necessarily scuttled
Speaker 7: the possibility of the AH to Ukraine, but he looms
Speaker 7: large over these talks and over anything else on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 7: The question of Republicans looking to Trump saying what exactly
Speaker 7: does he want to do? Is he going to come
Speaker 7: after me for this vote? That is one of the
Speaker 7: key questions in the cash Sure.
Speaker 3: Now Donald Trump's going to the border this week. Apparently
Speaker 3: Joe Biden is too. He's not gonna let anything get
Speaker 3: through on the border. Well, Joe Biden's running for reelection.
Speaker 2: Is he?
Speaker 7: I mean, that's again where you look to the Centrists,
Speaker 7: you look to something pared down. He is largely responsible
Speaker 7: for the death of that bipartisan negotiated measure led by
Speaker 7: James Langford, who kind of got thrown under the bus.
Speaker 7: Could there be something smaller focused on a remain in
Speaker 7: Mexico policy, like Fitzpatrick brought up, that's not necessarily out
Speaker 7: of the question. But yes, the former president managed to
Speaker 7: basically kill a major piece of legislation and it's going
Speaker 7: to be tough to see anything broad on immigration in
Speaker 7: the border because of it.
Speaker 5: For sure.
Speaker 3: And the Senate leadership is starting to apparently come around
Speaker 3: on this.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 5: That's one of the three.
Speaker 3: I don't think Mitch McConnell is ever going to endorse
Speaker 3: Donald Trump.
Speaker 7: Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see. That's Trump is effectively the
Speaker 7: head of the Republican Party right now. It's it's a
Speaker 7: lot of support for Trump among people who might have
Speaker 7: surprised you.
Speaker 5: Well, I'll tell you. We talk about politics a lot.
Speaker 3: We talk about the appropriations process with you because that's
Speaker 3: your specialty. But you're a generalist as well. You're a
Speaker 3: political junkie. You're watching all this stuff. Imagine a world,
Speaker 3: and I keep hearing in this newsroom there are two
Speaker 3: things that political journalists pine for every four years or
Speaker 3: maybe more often. One of them is a contested convention.
Speaker 3: The other is a discharge petition. Of course that could
Speaker 3: come anytime. Are we going to be in a world
Speaker 3: pretend we're not on the air right now.
Speaker 5: Where we get both this year?
Speaker 7: Ah oh man, would that be something to number of
Speaker 7: things that have happened or could happen this year that
Speaker 7: are so so unusual. I'll admit I'm a little more
Speaker 7: focused on the possibility of a shut down there during
Speaker 7: the State of the Union right now.
Speaker 3: Look, I've asked a lot of folks this. We have
Speaker 3: less than a minute. Would that delay the speech? Does
Speaker 3: Joe Biden go back to it from the White House?
Speaker 7: It would be a massive embarrassment to cancel the State
Speaker 7: of the Union because you shut the government down. I
Speaker 7: have to think they would stick to it, and Biden
Speaker 7: would relish the opportunity. My god, give it a point address.
Speaker 7: Some blame Republican.
Speaker 3: They can pay to keep the lights on in the
Speaker 3: chamber for that, right Yeah, Congress cameras will work. Can
Speaker 3: you imagine the booing and the heckling on that night
Speaker 3: as well? Are you going to be there for it?
Speaker 7: I don't think I'll be in the room, but I'll
Speaker 7: be around, all.
Speaker 5: Right, Meet me in stat Hall, I'll be there.
Speaker 3: Let's getch you on. We have special coverage that night
Speaker 3: State of the Union as well as Super Tuesday. Both
Speaker 3: of them are next week. We'll find out if it
Speaker 3: shut down coincides, with a lot more to follow. Today
Speaker 3: on the fastest show in Politics.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play
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Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 8: As we talk about how Trump decisively won South Carolina,
Speaker 8: as he's decisively won every primary contest thus far, it's
Speaker 8: worth keeping in mind, and Nicky Haley pointed to this, Joe,
Speaker 8: roughly forty percent of Republican primary voters or Republican or
Speaker 8: primary voters, as there's independence in this mix as well
Speaker 8: that we should consider, are not picking him, and he's
Speaker 8: essentially an incumbent Republican.
Speaker 5: That's true.
Speaker 3: If you look at this from the incumbent standpoint, it
Speaker 3: might not be as impressive I guess, to see.
Speaker 5: Him win all of the early states.
Speaker 3: Joe Biden's winning his as well, but you don't look
Speaker 3: at it because he's the.
Speaker 8: President, and so it raises a question of how those
Speaker 8: primary voters may translate into general election voters and On
Speaker 8: that note, we want to bring in Andrew Smith now
Speaker 8: of the unh Survey Center. He is the director there. Andrew,
Speaker 8: always great to see you and get your expertise. Far
Speaker 8: beyond New Hampshire, of course, state that Trump also won.
Speaker 8: Where do those forty percent of voters who did not
Speaker 8: vote for Trump in a primary? Where are they likely
Speaker 8: to go in a general election?
Speaker 9: Will the great majority of them are likely to go
Speaker 9: and vote for Trump in a general election, presuming that
Speaker 9: he's a candidate. People have a great ability to rationalize
Speaker 9: why their party skunk is better than the other party skunk.
Speaker 9: So I imagine a lot of those voters will go
Speaker 9: to vote for Trump because they're you know, they don't
Speaker 9: they aren't engaged in politics that much, and they're going
Speaker 9: to vote for their team, and that is the Republican Party.
Speaker 9: The biggest problem that Trump has is not that they're
Speaker 9: going to go over and vote for Biden, but that
Speaker 9: they just won't show up and turnout. I think is
Speaker 9: really going to be the key issue in determining who
Speaker 9: wins the election this fall. It's essentially a replay of
Speaker 9: almost the last two presidential elections, and turnout of a
Speaker 9: few percentage points in key states makes a difference between
Speaker 9: who wins and who loses. And if say five percent
Speaker 9: of those Republican voters who voted for Haley don't show
Speaker 9: up in November, Donald Trump will lose.
Speaker 5: So where's your head on this race? Andrew?
Speaker 3: We left New Hampshire talking with you about a general
Speaker 3: election that was already beginning. It's really looking like when
Speaker 3: now you've got Trump and Joe Biden both at the
Speaker 3: border on the same day. They're now referring to each
Speaker 3: other directly. How long can this last for Nikki Hayley,
Speaker 3: as you know, the potential alternative. She's in there just
Speaker 3: in case something goes wrong with the Trump campaign, it seems.
Speaker 3: But when does that start to look ridiculous?
Speaker 9: I think you're right, she's in there in case something happens,
Speaker 9: But that means that you're campaigning where you're relying on
Speaker 9: something that's completely out of your control, and that's not
Speaker 9: a good place to be in My sense is this
Speaker 9: her campaign is really all over. But the crime to
Speaker 9: use a phrase, she can stay on until Super Tuesday
Speaker 9: and see when the money runs out. I think that's
Speaker 9: going to be the key issue. But to the point
Speaker 9: of your last guest that I think she is somebody
Speaker 9: who with the Republican Party, with kind of the mainstream
Speaker 9: of the old Republican parties, looking forward to as a
Speaker 9: potential candidate in twenty twenty eight, presuming that Trump is
Speaker 9: already the nominee this time around, so she can go
Speaker 9: on for a little bit more. But I just don't
Speaker 9: think she really has any avenue to winning the nomination
Speaker 9: unless something really dramatic happens to Trump. And I don't
Speaker 9: even think that's a conviction in a court case. I
Speaker 9: think it's going to have to be something a health
Speaker 9: related thing, or something that really prevents him from being.
Speaker 2: Able to run.
Speaker 8: So when you see pulling like some that we've conducted
Speaker 8: here at Bloomberg Worth Morning consult that suggests that voters,
Speaker 8: specifically swing state voters would be less likely to vote
Speaker 8: for Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony,
Speaker 8: you don't necessarily think that matches reality.
Speaker 9: Well, it may match reality right now, but again, the
Speaker 9: election is a long time away and people are not
Speaker 9: in an election framework. By the time the election comes around,
Speaker 9: you're going to have so much mud thrown by both
Speaker 9: of these candidates that I have a feeling that both
Speaker 9: parties are just going to hold their nose and vote
Speaker 9: for the R or the D, not necessarily for the
Speaker 9: candidate who's running. But it's really way too early. We've
Speaker 9: not seen an election like this where the nominees have
Speaker 9: been identified this early on, where there's really not much
Speaker 9: going to be going on between now and then except
Speaker 9: a battle between the top two people. That's just going
Speaker 9: to get uglier and uglier. And my maybe that's what
Speaker 9: I fear it's going to get, but it's not going
Speaker 9: to be something that's illuminating a sparkling example of American democracy.
Speaker 3: For spending time with Andrew Smith, political scientist and head
Speaker 3: of the UNH Survey Center, when we were in New
Speaker 3: Hampshire with you, Andrew, the idea was that this state
Speaker 3: was unique because of the independent vote, that if Nicky
Speaker 3: Haley were to outperform anywhere, it would be here. Her
Speaker 3: campaign pointed to South Carolina in the same way, what
Speaker 3: did we learn from the demographic breakdown and the party
Speaker 3: breakdown in the Palmetto state here to try to gauge
Speaker 3: success and failure moving forward?
Speaker 9: Well, you know, Hayley has done okay with the protest,
Speaker 9: but essentially you know, Trump is going to get the
Speaker 9: majority of the republic mainstream Republicans, registered Republicans, and Haley's
Speaker 9: had to rely on people who are not the mainstream
Speaker 9: part of the party, and obviously getting forty percent of that,
Speaker 9: frankly is pretty good. And she got over forty percent
Speaker 9: here in New Hampshire, which is pretty good, but it's
Speaker 9: certainly not enough to win. But I think the problem
Speaker 9: that we have to look at this is that Trump
Speaker 9: hasn't been able to win convincingly really anywhere he's won.
Speaker 9: But he is, as you say, he's the incumbent. He
Speaker 9: should be able to win this by eighty to ninety percent,
Speaker 9: like Biden is able to do against the say Dean Phillips.
Speaker 9: What that tells me is that you've got us just
Speaker 9: a deeply divided Republican party that wishes it had somebody else,
Speaker 9: but it doesn't see that there is any alternative to
Speaker 9: Trump at this point.
Speaker 8: Andrew, you just mentioned that Biden has been able to
Speaker 8: secure eighty to ninety percent of the vote. Do you
Speaker 8: think he'll be able to do that in the Michigan
Speaker 8: primary tomorrow? Knowing that Arab American specifically there are suggesting
Speaker 8: they will be backing uncommitted instead of the president because
Speaker 8: of the issue of Gaza and his role in supporting
Speaker 8: Israel in that war effort against.
Speaker 9: A moss Yeah, I think Biden will be fine in
Speaker 9: the primary election. The Arab vote is very important, but
Speaker 9: it's important in just a few places in the state,
Speaker 9: and in a very close statewide election, whether or not
Speaker 9: they show up and vote, it's going to be a difference.
Speaker 2: But in a.
Speaker 9: Democratic primary, I think Biden has all the controls of
Speaker 9: the party establishment itself, so I think he'll win the
Speaker 9: HANDI leive there in Michigan.
Speaker 3: What does it tell you when you start to see
Speaker 3: the money turn here, Andrew, this is a big headline
Speaker 3: for Nikki Haley. Koch Brothers money is going down ballot,
Speaker 3: which was really helping to breathe life into her ground operations.
Speaker 5: Specifically, she's not going to have that moving forward.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: You're used to people asking you every four years when
Speaker 3: people are going to drop out. Give us the anatomy
Speaker 3: of the end of this campaign.
Speaker 9: Well, you stop running when the money runs out. That's
Speaker 9: the ultimate truth of it. And I think the money
Speaker 9: is slowing down dramatically, and in fact, Haley needs so
Speaker 9: much money to counter Trump. In fact, I don't even
Speaker 9: think there's an amount of money that she could spend
Speaker 9: that would really effectively counter Donald Trump, because he's so
Speaker 9: well known to the electorate and to the Republican primary
Speaker 9: electorate to convince them otherwise. I think there's almost no
Speaker 9: amount of money that could make that case. But she's
Speaker 9: not going to have the money just to keep the
Speaker 9: people going in her staff for too much longer. So
Speaker 9: I think that she's likely to go through Super Tuesday.
Speaker 9: She's been pretty honest by saying that. She says she
Speaker 9: was going to be in South Carolina. She's there. She
Speaker 9: said she's going to be there at Super Tuesday. She's
Speaker 9: likely going to be there. But I just can't see
Speaker 9: her really practically going on mind longer than that. About
Speaker 9: half of the delegates are going to be awarded on
Speaker 9: Super Tuesday, and it's going to be hard for her
Speaker 9: to win just anything but a fraction of those.
Speaker 8: Andrew, we just have about a minute left with you.
Speaker 8: But it strikes me that we always knew Nikki Hayley
Speaker 8: was going to be a long shot candidate. We knew
Speaker 8: that she was gaining momentum, Yet we knew that Trump
Speaker 8: was still far and away ahead in pretty much every
Speaker 8: poll across the board, all of which at this point
Speaker 8: seemed to have proven pretty accurate. Is this the most
Speaker 8: accurate election cycle you've seen in terms of polling in
Speaker 8: some time?
Speaker 9: Yeahlling primary is it's really kind of a little bit
Speaker 9: of a crap shoot. You don't know what you're going
Speaker 9: to get because you don't know who's going to show up.
Speaker 9: But this has been a fairly straightforward primary going forward,
Speaker 9: even including the Iowa caucuses, which are really quirky. Yeah,
Speaker 9: but I think the poll has been pretty accurate, largely
Speaker 9: because you essentially have an incumbent and people are either
Speaker 9: going to vote for the incumbent or not. And now
Speaker 9: that Hayley's the only one left, it's really just the
Speaker 9: two person race. The biggest problem in primary poling always
Speaker 9: is who's going to show up, and I think that's
Speaker 9: one of the reasons that you see Trump's numbers overestimated
Speaker 9: a little bit.
Speaker 3: Remember this conversation a week from tomorrow again, that'll be
Speaker 3: super Tuesday. Andrew Smith, great to see you post New Hampshire.
Speaker 3: He's the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey
Speaker 3: Center and a reliable voice Kayley on All Things Politics.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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Speaker 3: You know, it's interesting we talk about different topics and
Speaker 3: ideas throughout the course of an hour. In this particular hour,
Speaker 3: they all intersect. We're at the point now where you
Speaker 3: cannot remove the tentacles from the campaign trail to the
Speaker 3: White House to Capitol Hill, where of course Donald Trump
Speaker 3: is impacting the outcome of a number.
Speaker 5: Of debates right now.
Speaker 8: Yeah, as he has the ear of the House Speaker
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson, and it's not really clear exactly what Mike
Speaker 8: Johnson might be thinking about the looming deadline to avoid
Speaker 8: a partial government shutdown.
Speaker 7: Correct, come the end of Trump's.
Speaker 5: Wait in on that. We don't have a truth social
Speaker 5: on shutdown yet.
Speaker 8: No, a lot on the border by some other things.
Speaker 8: But yes, definitely stand by because of course the House
Speaker 8: still isn't back. They come back to town on Wednesday,
Speaker 8: and then they'll have to race over the course of
Speaker 8: just three legislative duties to try to avert this. Reminding everybody,
Speaker 8: this is a partial government shutdown, potentially just for appropriations bills.
Speaker 8: Are the ones that are supposed to pass to avert this,
Speaker 8: They're supposed to be the easy ones, to the controvers
Speaker 8: are the hard ones.
Speaker 5: That's true.
Speaker 3: Yes, so the countdown clocks will be running here, and
Speaker 3: we're going to do this twice. Although if we shut
Speaker 3: it down, if we start shutting down Friday, I would submit,
Speaker 3: we're going to be in much more trouble the following
Speaker 3: week because to your point, you know, doing the the
Speaker 3: HUD bill or the FDA bill is a lot less
Speaker 3: controversial than say the Pentagon or.
Speaker 8: Right when you're talking defense, the big bulk of government
Speaker 8: spending on the eighth, that's where it gets really tricky.
Speaker 8: But of course this is all tricky already. So on
Speaker 8: that note, trying to work through the trickiness is Mark Goldwine,
Speaker 8: who is joining us now from the Committee for a
Speaker 8: Responsible Federal Budget where he is senior policy director. So, Mark,
Speaker 8: how do you see this going down? What odds are
Speaker 8: you personally putting on a partial shutdown by the end
Speaker 8: of this week.
Speaker 10: I really try not to put odds on this stuff,
Speaker 10: but it's relatively high. Remember the shutdown, what happened midnight Friday,
Speaker 10: so it really wouldn't matter until sometime on Monday. But
Speaker 10: I think it's likely we have that little shutdown and
Speaker 10: that we try to pass these individual appropriations bills and
Speaker 10: then probably have kicked the can for that second set
Speaker 10: of bills so that they don't have a larger shutdown
Speaker 10: or a particularly long one.
Speaker 3: You're, of course, again at the Committee for a Responsible
Speaker 3: Federal Budget that's the name on the door mark. Is
Speaker 3: is it possible we don't get a responsible federal budget
Speaker 3: for this entire fiscal year because they're talking about cr
Speaker 3: for the duration at this point.
Speaker 10: Well, it seems like we haven't had a responsible federal
Speaker 10: budget in some time. But yeah, it's possible we don't
Speaker 10: get any appropriations. I do think if they go the
Speaker 10: route of permanent continued resolutions sort of kick the can,
Speaker 10: they're going to have to make so many adjustments to
Speaker 10: it that will almost look like a hybrid between a
Speaker 10: continued resolution and an appropriations. But it is possible they
Speaker 10: can't get all their act together on the rail true appropriations.
Speaker 8: Well, and of course if they don't come the end
Speaker 8: of April, that's when the one percent sequester kicks in.
Speaker 8: One percent cuts to everything across the board, defense included.
Speaker 8: And when you're talking about defense that has a significantly
Speaker 8: larger budget, that one percent is worth a lot more
Speaker 8: than for other appropriations. Just can you just remind us
Speaker 8: walk us through what would really happen to the government
Speaker 8: financing if that one percent sequester kicks in? What would
Speaker 8: be detrimentally affected?
Speaker 10: Well, here's the reality. A one percent sequester by itself
Speaker 10: is actually not that big a deal, and most of
Speaker 10: the agencies could bear it because they've been on the CR.
Speaker 10: The problem is sort of this twofold. The first is
Speaker 10: it's actually more than one percent right now on the
Speaker 10: non defense side because of some weird stuff relate to
Speaker 10: veterans and receipts, so it's actually more like a five percent.
Speaker 10: But the other is, if we do a permanent CR,
Speaker 10: we don't actually get those one percent sequester. What we
Speaker 10: get is no sequester for defense and something closer to
Speaker 10: a ten percent sequester in the non defense And trying
Speaker 10: to cut ten percent of your budget in just half
Speaker 10: the year is just not doable. The only way is
Speaker 10: really significant rolling furloughs for many of the agencies.
Speaker 5: Wow.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean you'd think that that would be quite
Speaker 3: a deterrent mark. But it seems to me Defense spending
Speaker 3: will be the matter that makes a difference. Right when
Speaker 3: the Hawks get a hold of this, this is going
Speaker 3: to be an ugly debate on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 10: And with defense spending, it's less the level and it's
Speaker 10: more this stagnation that if you do the CRS, you
Speaker 10: can't actually make new choices about what contracts to enter
Speaker 10: into and things like that. So with the Defense Department,
Speaker 10: it's really the flexibility that matters, maybe more than the
Speaker 10: actual level of spending.
Speaker 8: Well, and of course, as Joe and I were discussing,
Speaker 8: the first week of March is going to be pretty
Speaker 8: wild because of course you have this March first deadline,
Speaker 8: you have the March eighth deadline in terms of government funding,
Speaker 8: and smashed in between, the President is supposed to be
Speaker 8: giving his State of the Union address to a joint
Speaker 8: session of Congress on March seventh, so the eve of
Speaker 8: the deadline for the bigger chunk of appropriations bills that
Speaker 8: need to pass, and then just a few days after that,
Speaker 8: he's supposed to be giving his budget for the next
Speaker 8: fiscal year, when we still haven't sorted out, as Joe
Speaker 8: was alluding to the budget for this current fiscal year,
Speaker 8: when the president outlines his policies, what should those policies
Speaker 8: look like to be more fiscally responsible.
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I also heard there's some election stuff happening
Speaker 10: in that same time.
Speaker 7: Yes, indeed, yeah, I mean.
Speaker 6: Look, we are deeply in debt.
Speaker 10: Interest this year is projected to be larger than the
Speaker 10: defense budget and larger than medicares. Expect to be the
Speaker 10: second largest government program, which is nuts if you think
Speaker 10: about it. So I hope the President comes forward with
Speaker 10: significant depths of reduction. Doesn't mean balancing the budget, doesn't
Speaker 10: mean paying off the debt, but at least getting US
Speaker 10: five to eight trillion dollars, so the debt isn't growing
Speaker 10: much faster than the economy. And that's going to have
Speaker 10: to come from tax revenue, which actually this president has
Speaker 10: been pretty good about talking about, and it's going to
Speaker 10: have to come from spending cuts, which this president hasn't
Speaker 10: really talked about at all, especially in the healthcare system
Speaker 10: where there's so much waste that I think we could
Speaker 10: cut trillions of dollars and not even really miss it.
Speaker 3: We haven't talked about raising revenues yet, Mark, is that
Speaker 3: a joke?
Speaker 10: Well, I mean actually just said the President's actually been
Speaker 10: pretty good on this issue. I do think he only
Speaker 10: wants to raise taxes on the two percent of Americans
Speaker 10: making over four hundred thousand dollars. I think it's a
Speaker 10: little silly that if we have a bad tax break,
Speaker 10: we'd want to leave it into effect for somebody making
Speaker 10: three hundred and ninety nine thousand. But as president actually
Speaker 10: in his last budget put forward about three trillion dollars
Speaker 10: of net tax increases, maybe even a little bit more.
Speaker 10: And I hope he'll put forward more this time because
Speaker 10: they got to be on the table so that we
Speaker 10: can discuss them, figure out which ones are good, which
Speaker 10: ones are bad, and ultimately we're not going to be
Speaker 10: able to solve the debt without raising substantially more revenue
Speaker 10: than what we're projected.
Speaker 8: To Mark, just in our final minute with you, we're
Speaker 8: obviously here on Bloomberg Television and Radio, where both Joe
Speaker 8: and I have taken note that markets at this point
Speaker 8: don't seem that concerned about fiscal risk that may out
Speaker 8: be out there. A partial shutdown is not really reflected
Speaker 8: at all, it seems. What would you tell the markets
Speaker 8: about how worried they should be about fiscal conduct on
Speaker 8: Capitol Hill.
Speaker 10: Well, a shutdown itself, it's disruptive, but it's just not
Speaker 10: like it's not a macroeconomic activity that's going to fundamentally
Speaker 10: change the economy. And so even if I were worried
Speaker 10: about shutdown, I wouldn't be worried about its effects. What
Speaker 10: I worry about is what it means for the ability
Speaker 10: of Congress and the President to solve other larger problems.
Speaker 10: Right our debt is as large as the economy, and
Speaker 10: if we can't even keep the lights on, how are
Speaker 10: we gonna how are we gonna solve these major issues?
Speaker 10: And if we can't solve the major issues, then we
Speaker 10: are in big trouble. And I think you're starting to
Speaker 10: see that a little bit in the interest rates.
Speaker 5: Pay Mark.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you, Mark Goldwine at the Committee
Speaker 3: for a Responsible Federal Budget. Thanks for the insights here
Speaker 3: and the fair warning as it does look like we
Speaker 3: couldn't in fact be headed for a shutdown starting Friday.
Speaker 3: Kaylee then we'll see where we are by the next
Speaker 3: Friday made complete. Thanks for listening to the Balance of
Speaker 3: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,
Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 3: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC
Speaker 3: at Noontimeeaster at Bloomberg dot com.