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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and

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Speaker 2: then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Monday Edition as we try to bring

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Speaker 3: you the most important stories of the day here and

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Speaker 3: in Washington. It has a lot to do with the

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Speaker 3: government shutdown looming less than a week off. This is

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Speaker 3: Friday now we're talking about. There was a hope that

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Speaker 3: over the weekend a plan would emerge. Sunday night, we

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Speaker 3: were told it did not happen. If you're following along

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Speaker 3: on our home game. The government begins shutting down Friday

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Speaker 3: and would be totally shut the following Friday, March one

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Speaker 3: and March eight. We're going to talk to Jack Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 3: about this a little bit later on this hour as

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Speaker 3: the dear colleague letters start flying again, as we also

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Speaker 3: pick up the pieces coming out of South Carolina. This

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Speaker 3: is what we're going to focus on for the next

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Speaker 3: little bit here, and a twenty point blowout for Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: who has now swept all of the early states. This

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Speaker 3: has never happened before. I know you thought it was

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Speaker 3: going to happen because everyone predicted it. But let's just

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Speaker 3: stop down for a moment. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina,

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Speaker 3: and yes, the Virgin Islands all for Donald Trump. Unprecedented

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Speaker 3: in a contested primary. We have never seen this before.

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Speaker 3: And so now Nicki Haley is hearing what she has

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Speaker 3: been fearing that the money might be going away. The

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Speaker 3: headline on the terminal billionaire GOP donors pivot to Congress

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Speaker 3: as Haley run feeds, we're talking about the Koch Brothers here.

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Speaker 3: Americans for Prosperity Action had spent tens of millions trying

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Speaker 3: to create a real challenge to Donald Trump here by

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Speaker 3: way of Nicki Haley. And as we are reporting now,

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Speaker 3: the political network created by the billionaire industrialist announcing that

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Speaker 3: it's suspending its support for Niki Haley and it's going

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Speaker 3: down ballot, House and Senate races. That's where we start

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Speaker 3: our conversation with Mark Niquette, reporting for Bloomberg National Politics

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Speaker 3: and Government Reporter. He's the man on the trail and

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Speaker 3: it's great to see you, Mark, after another primary weekend

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Speaker 3: will remind everybody that a week from tomorrow is Super Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: Nikki Haley says she's in for the duration, at least

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Speaker 3: through next week. Mark, Is that what you expect.

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Speaker 4: That's what she's telling us. I mean, presidential candidates only

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Speaker 4: get out of races when the money drives up, and

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Speaker 4: they can't keep the lights on when they're necessarily losing.

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Speaker 4: So she's pledged to stay in the race until Super Tuesday.

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Speaker 4: Give these states, you know, these twenty one states that

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Speaker 4: are voting here in the next ten days a chance

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Speaker 4: to vote, and we'll see. I guess she'll probably have

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Speaker 4: enough money to stay in through that point. But as

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Speaker 4: you said, if the donors keep leaving her now, deciding

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Speaker 4: that she can't ultimately win or they don't want to

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Speaker 4: keep funding her campaign, she won't just have the money

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Speaker 4: to continue after that.

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Speaker 3: How important is the coke money going away here? I

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Speaker 3: feel funny asking you that, Mark, but you know.

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Speaker 5: What I mean.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think very little bit is important.

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Speaker 4: I mean, this was a source of funding for her

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Speaker 4: campaign that again was sustaining her even though she wasn't

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Speaker 4: winning any elections. So not having that access to that money,

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Speaker 4: I think you know, one, it would be less money

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Speaker 4: that she has available, but it could also signal to

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Speaker 4: other donors that, hey, this is not a good investment anymore.

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Speaker 4: You know, maybe I should pull my money as well.

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Speaker 3: Nikki Hilly's got events scheduled in the coming days. You'll

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Speaker 3: probably be at some of them, if I know, you

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Speaker 3: market a qutte Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, and Utah. What is

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Speaker 3: she actually trying to accomplish on Super Tuesday having not

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Speaker 3: won a state yet?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think she's trying to hold out to be

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Speaker 4: the alternative in case Trump for whatever reason is not

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Speaker 4: able to continue or if it's some point down in

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Speaker 4: the process here you know, he's not able to be

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Speaker 4: the nominee. I mean, I think it's pretty clear at

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Speaker 4: this point she's she's not going to win enough delegates

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Speaker 4: to you know, to be the nominee. But I think

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Speaker 4: the strategy is to win enough delegates to be relevant

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Speaker 4: and be sort of the alternative in case Trump some

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Speaker 4: for some again, for some whatever reason, you know, can't

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Speaker 4: continue as a nominee.

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Speaker 3: Is there a state or are there are a couple of

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Speaker 3: states she's targeting though for for actual ws on Super

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Speaker 3: Tuesday to say, hey, I can actually do this. You

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Speaker 3: can't come in second place forever. Mark, and I realized

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Speaker 3: that she's got some delegates. She could drive them all

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Speaker 3: the way to the convention if she wants, right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think there's there are some states

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Speaker 4: I don't know specifically, you know what she's targeting, but

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Speaker 4: you know, states in the Western US, for example, and

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Speaker 4: states that have you know, more liberal rules in terms

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Speaker 4: of who can participate in the primary where she might

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Speaker 4: do better. You know, for example, she was able to

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Speaker 4: do better and in New Hampshire than South Carolina because

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Speaker 4: Democrats were able to participate in the Republican primary. So

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Speaker 4: I think the thinking is that she could tract you know,

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Speaker 4: some Democrats or independence to play in the Republican primary

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Speaker 4: and some of these Super Tuesday states that can help

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Speaker 4: elevate her. But again, she's not shown the ability to

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Speaker 4: you know, actually win these states. You know, I don't

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Speaker 4: think she's got higher than forty three percent in any

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Speaker 4: of these primaries.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's it's really something, Mark.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate your joining us stay in touch as we

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Speaker 3: get into Super Tuesday, we've got more to ask Mark

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Speaker 3: Niquette find him on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 3: He's an important part of our campaign coverage. Now as

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Speaker 3: we add the voice of Jim Ellis, I've been looking

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Speaker 3: forward to this conversation. Ellis Insight, the founder of the

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Speaker 3: election analysis service. Jim, it's good to see you. Welcome

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Speaker 3: to Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube as well. We've got

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Speaker 3: a lot of folks here watching and listening, wondering what

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Speaker 3: happens next. I want to go down ballot with you,

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Speaker 3: but before we do that, your insights following Super Tuesday

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Speaker 3: or South Carolina or rather and heading for Super Tuesday?

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Speaker 3: Is this actually Nikki Haley's last stand next week?

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Speaker 6: Well, thanks so much for having me. You think it

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Speaker 6: would be? She loses basically sixty forty in her home state,

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Speaker 6: remember before a Republican electorate that had propelled her to

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Speaker 6: being governor twice. I was amused a little bit that

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Speaker 6: your earlier reporter indicated that Donald Trump was the incumb

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Speaker 6: but I don't think that's the case in South Carolina.

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Speaker 6: So that some people are claiming that Trump didn't do

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Speaker 6: as well in the suburbs as he should have around

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Speaker 6: Charleston and Columbia, but still sixty forty and the other

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Speaker 6: person's home state. That's a pretty good indication that this

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Speaker 6: race is over. So we'll see. We have Michigan tomorrow,

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Speaker 6: and that's another indication for both Donald Trump and President

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Speaker 6: Biden as to where we might be headed. And we

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Speaker 6: should have official nominees here very early in March, if

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Speaker 6: not by Super Tuesday, then certainly by March nineteenth, when

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Speaker 6: Ohio and Illinois and Arizona vote.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting, Jim, we're all Joe Biden more closely

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Speaker 3: than the Republican contest in Michigan tomorrow, maybe because there

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Speaker 3: just isn't that much to watch when it comes to

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden. And this is a very special circumstance that

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Speaker 3: could present a problem for him nationally when it comes

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Speaker 3: to Arab American and Muslim American voters. But as far

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Speaker 3: as the Republican primary is concerned, and like I said,

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Speaker 3: I want to move down ballot with you. But when

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Speaker 3: you listened to Nicki Haley last night, does she have

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Speaker 3: a point? In Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump won with

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Speaker 3: about half the vote. We saw what he won with

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Speaker 3: in South Carolina. If you can't win your whole party,

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Speaker 3: how do you win the general?

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Speaker 6: Well, that's pretty common. This is a contested race, after all,

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Speaker 6: remember how many candidates began running here. It's not as

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Speaker 6: if you're unopposed for reelection really, as President Biden is

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Speaker 6: or has most presidents have been in the past. So

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Speaker 6: this is an open election. And the fact that he's

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Speaker 6: doing as well as he has, I think is an

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Speaker 6: indication that he's in very strong shape headed into a

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Speaker 6: jen election with the United Republican Party. I mean, no

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Speaker 6: one really has had as strong as internal numbers over

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Speaker 6: the course of his term in office and post as

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump has. So I think he's in good shape.

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Speaker 3: Elli's insight right now on Bloomberg as we look to

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Speaker 3: Super Tuesday, not presidential, but let's look at some of

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Speaker 3: these Senate races, Jim. Starting with California. This is a

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Speaker 3: big one, a lot of money spent, a lot of media,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of attention here. Adam Schiff is looking

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Speaker 3: like he's in good place, in a good place going

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Speaker 3: into it. He's certainly spent some money, but it's a

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Speaker 3: jungle primary. As you can explain to our audience here,

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Speaker 3: this has almost as much to do with second place

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Speaker 3: as it does first, doesn't it.

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Speaker 6: It certainly does so. A jungle primary means everybody's on

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Speaker 6: the same ballot, and three states use this for their

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Speaker 6: primary elections, California, of course, being won. It began in Louisiana,

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Speaker 6: but they're going to change and go back to a

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Speaker 6: partisan primary, and Washington is the other state that uses it,

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Speaker 6: so everybody's on the same ballot, regardless of political party

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Speaker 6: or percentage attained. The first two finishers here in California

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Speaker 6: will advance to the November general election. Adam Schiff appears

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Speaker 6: to be set in position one, but there's a real

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Speaker 6: dogfight in petition too, and it's one of the more

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Speaker 6: unique campaigns we've ever seen in American history because you

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Speaker 6: have both Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, congress Woman Porter

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Speaker 6: from Irvine in Orange County. They're the two leading Democrats,

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Speaker 6: and they're actually advertised to help Steve Garvey, or detract

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Speaker 6: from Steve Garvey coming in second place. Remember Steve Gardy

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Speaker 6: be former famous baseball player running for the Republicans and

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Speaker 6: by claiming he's too conservative, and this obviously is a

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Speaker 6: signal to conservative Republicans to vote for him. So Schiff

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Speaker 6: wants Garvey in second place, and therefore he doesn't have

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Speaker 6: to deal with a double Democratic general election, which would

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Speaker 6: be highly competitive and highly expensive. He wants a republicanly

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Speaker 6: ye next to him in the general, and Katie Porter

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Speaker 6: is advertising to try to knock Garvey out of second

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Speaker 6: place by claiming he won't support Donald Trump. So you

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Speaker 6: have to go for this Eric early and so to

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Speaker 6: help propel her in the second place. It's really a

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Speaker 6: fascinating situation in California that'll be decided on March fifth.

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Speaker 3: This is incredible maneuvering here before we move to another state. Jim,

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Speaker 3: is it more likely that we will have a Democrat

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Speaker 3: and a Republican then if they're both spending in that direction?

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Speaker 6: Polding looks like Garvey is on the move if the

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Speaker 6: polls are correct, but they're all very close, so it

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Speaker 6: could go anyway, and it all depends on turnout. But

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Speaker 6: I think there's a good chance right now that Garvey

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Speaker 6: does get second place, and that would virtually elect Adam

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Speaker 6: shiff in November.

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Speaker 3: Fascinating, and that's going to be part of what we're

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Speaker 3: talking about on Super Tuesday. It's not just presidential. Shortly thereafter, Jim,

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Speaker 3: we moved to Ohio. That's the nineteenth of March of

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Speaker 3: course shared Brown, who hasn't had to get on the

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Speaker 3: campaign trail in a while. We're looking at a three

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Speaker 3: way Republican race.

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Speaker 5: What do we need to know?

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Speaker 6: Well, that's an extremely important race for the Republicans, and

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Speaker 6: this is a critical election cycle for the Republicans in

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Speaker 6: the US Senate. They have to take advantage of a

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Speaker 6: favorable map, and by that I mean of the thirty

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Speaker 6: four center races the Democrats have to protect or defend

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Speaker 6: twenty three, the Republicans only eleven, and they really don't

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Speaker 6: have very many vulnerable seats. The Democrats think they've got

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Speaker 6: a shot at Ted Cruz in Texas. I don't think

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Speaker 6: that will be the case at the end of the day.

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Speaker 6: It's really not the year to presidential year is not

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Speaker 6: to win the year for a Democrat to win in Texas.

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Speaker 6: So it really comes down to Republicans not only getting

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Speaker 6: to fifty or to fifty one to get a bare majority.

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Speaker 6: They need to pretty much run the table and get

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Speaker 6: to fifty two, fifty three to fifty four to protect

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Speaker 6: themselves against more unfavorable maps coming in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 6: Eight is we all know senators have six year terms

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Speaker 6: and every two years a third of the senator is up,

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Speaker 6: so this year it really helps the Republicans and they

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Speaker 6: have to take advantage of this map. Ohio becomes one

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Speaker 6: of the key states for them. The West Virginia race

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Speaker 6: without Senator Mansion in that race looks like it's in

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Speaker 6: the bag. So we're really an effectively fifty to fifty

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Speaker 6: right now from an electoral standpoint, Ohio Montana being the

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Speaker 6: next two that have to go for the Republicans for

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Speaker 6: them to take advantage of this. In that Republican primary

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Speaker 6: in Ohio, you have a three way race the Secretary

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Speaker 6: of State Frank Leroose, state Senator Matt Dolan, whose family

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Speaker 6: owns part of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and the

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Speaker 6: third candidate, who both former President Trump and Senator jd

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Speaker 6: Vance has endorsed, the businessman Oh my names, I'm scaping

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Speaker 6: on his first name, Marino. That will have a three

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Speaker 6: way race to win their nynation Bernie, thank you so much,

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Speaker 6: and he is all three of them. Polls are very

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Speaker 6: close in that race. It's a three way race and

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Speaker 6: it's a I think frankly though, whichever one of the

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Speaker 6: three wins, the Republicans are actually going to be in

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Speaker 6: pretty good shape. I think each of those candidates would

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Speaker 6: be strong enough to go up against shared Brown. And really,

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Speaker 6: from Senator Brown standpoint, he's won tough elections in Ohio before,

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Speaker 6: but the state has really moved to the right since

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Speaker 6: his last election in twenty eighteen. And we have to

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Speaker 6: remember these Senate terms are so long that the last

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Speaker 6: time people like Senator Brown and Senator John Tester and

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Speaker 6: Montana were on the ballot was twenty eighteen, and that

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Speaker 6: was a good Democratic year, a wave most people thought

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Speaker 6: for the Democrats, and so they were able to win

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Speaker 6: in those years. And then the previous time they had

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Speaker 6: twenty twelve, what was happening In twenty twelve, They had

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Speaker 6: Barack Obama on the ballot running for reelection. They don't

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Speaker 6: have that this time, and this year is going to

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Speaker 6: be a much more difficult time for both Senator Brown

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Speaker 6: and Senator Tester in those two critical states.

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Speaker 5: Fascinating.

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Speaker 3: This is why we wanted to talk to Jim Ellis

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Speaker 3: in a real seminar as we look down ballot here

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Speaker 3: specifically to the Senate, you have the wild card of

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Speaker 3: Maryland and Larry Hogan, and we've got a real conversation Jim,

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Speaker 3: I hope that you'll come talk to us on the

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Speaker 3: regular here throughout the balance of this cycle. I'm really

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Speaker 3: happy to have you on today and bring your expertise

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Speaker 3: to our viewers and listeners. He's the founder of Ellis

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Speaker 3: Insight Election analysis service. Jim Ellis, Thank you, sir for

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Speaker 3: being part of the conversation today. Keep this all in

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Speaker 3: mind as we go into Super Tuesday. It's not just

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump and Nicki Haley we're talking about here with

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Speaker 3: massive implications when it comes to yes, the Balance of

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Speaker 3: Power on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

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Speaker 1: Ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: The deer Colleague letters are starting to fly, which is

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Speaker 3: never a good sign.

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Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power as

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Speaker 3: we keep our eyes on midnight Friday. This is when

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Speaker 3: the government's set to start shutting down here. And while

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Speaker 3: we've been talking about it for weeks on this program

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Speaker 3: while many folks had their attention.

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Speaker 5: On other matters. It's still here and there's no deal.

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Speaker 3: Lawmakers will get back Wednesday, at least the House, so

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Speaker 3: they'll have three days to put this together.

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Speaker 5: And that would be a land speed record.

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Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer out with the deer colleague last night, accusing

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Speaker 3: Republicans of playing politics with people's lives, and boy, it

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Speaker 3: seems like we've seen this movie before. Jack Fitzpatrick seen

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Speaker 3: it a lot of times. He's with us from Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Government and keeping an eye on things here on the Hill. Jack,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you're in for a couple of weeks. It's

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Speaker 3: Friday followed by Friday, right, two different deadlines. There was

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Speaker 3: talk of a deal emerging last night, that we might

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Speaker 3: wake up Monday morning to having some kind of a

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Speaker 3: deal on spending.

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Speaker 5: It did not happen. Was that real was that media talk?

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Speaker 7: It never seemed particularly realistic. It was floated out there.

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Speaker 7: It was reported in a couple places. We had heard

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Speaker 7: that some people involved in the negotiations hope to have

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Speaker 7: something by Sunday night. But even late last week when

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Speaker 7: it started coming out, two staffers from the Speaker's office said, no,

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Speaker 7: that's not a plan. That's not something that's going to happen.

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Speaker 7: So there's a bit of a back and forth on

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Speaker 7: expectations setting. You then saw the dear colleague letter from

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Speaker 7: Chuck Schumer come out late yesterday saying we hope to

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Speaker 7: have a deal Sunday, but House Republicans are dragging this out.

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Speaker 7: The Speaker then said, it's Democrats who are introducing new

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Speaker 7: issues that weren't even in their own bills initially. There's

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Speaker 7: some mudslinging going on. I think when you hear of

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Speaker 7: expectations of oh, here's when it's going to come together,

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Speaker 7: here's what we know is going to happen, you have

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Speaker 7: to take it with a grain of salt. They are

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Speaker 7: very likely going to take this up to the last

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Speaker 7: minute if they do succeed in avoiding a shutdown. Yes,

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Speaker 7: and there are maybe some games being played behind the

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Speaker 7: scenes on expectation setting.

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Speaker 3: So let's talk options here, and we can remind everyone

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Speaker 3: that this is not the full government. This is four

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Speaker 3: departments or four spending bills that would be expiring on Friday,

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Speaker 3: and these are the easy ones, right. If you can't

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Speaker 3: figure that out, the week later is going to be

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Speaker 3: really something. The Speaker of the House has vowed to

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Speaker 3: not do another continuing resolution a short term deal, although

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Speaker 3: apparently there is talk.

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Speaker 5: Of doing that. When will we know he's out of

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Speaker 5: options that we either do a CR or close it down.

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Speaker 7: That's another last minute issue, because we've heard from the Speaker,

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Speaker 7: we've heard from others in House Republican leadership. It came

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Speaker 7: out from Tom Emmer a little while back. They're not

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Speaker 7: doing another continuing resolution. But if they don't have a

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Speaker 7: deal that they can enact and they're not doing a CR,

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Speaker 7: then it's a question of how long do you shut

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Speaker 7: the government down? And that's what really builds pressure, and

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Speaker 7: people crack under pressure sometimes. So look, it is very

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Speaker 7: notable that House Republicans have said absolutely not, we do

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Speaker 7: not want another CR. So that's the escape hatch if

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Speaker 7: nothing else works. Anyway, so it's going to be a

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Speaker 7: last minute question of do they need to buy a

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Speaker 7: little more time. And it's worth keeping in mind that

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Speaker 7: House Republicans in particular do not want to vote for

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Speaker 7: a stopgap measure, and that is a factor that could

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Speaker 7: lead us in full partial shutdown.

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Speaker 3: They do hate that a lot of this we're told

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Speaker 3: is coming down to policy writers. Is that still the case?

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Speaker 3: Could that change when they come back Wednesday.

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Speaker 7: That seems to be the case, And it's been pretty

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Speaker 7: consistent that once they got the basic parameters of how

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Speaker 7: much they're going to spend on defense, on non defense,

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Speaker 7: on each bill, it was a matter of policy writers.

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Speaker 7: There were a ton of policy writers and the House

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Speaker 7: Republican measures. As I said, the Speaker then accused Democrats

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Speaker 7: of adding things that they hadn't included in their own bills.

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Speaker 7: But generally, what I've heard is a lot of things

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Speaker 7: were not able to be negotiated by the people who

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Speaker 7: are supposed to write the bills, the subcommittee chairs, and

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Speaker 7: that was sent up to the full committee chairs and

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Speaker 7: to leadership to hash out a great number of remaining

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Speaker 7: policy rider issues that cover a lot of ground.

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Speaker 5: So this is the granular stuff.

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Speaker 3: Big picture is a meeting tomorrow, apparently at the White House.

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden's invited Mike Johnson to come back with the

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Speaker 3: other leaders. McConnell, Schumer, Jeffries will be there. What's the

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Speaker 3: point if we've come.

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Speaker 7: This far without a breakthrough, We're at a point now

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Speaker 7: where pressure is a major part of the negotiations. In

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Speaker 7: the news cycle. That may be more of a factor

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Speaker 7: on Ukraine funding than funding the government. But like I mentioned,

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Speaker 7: when you have a number of things that cannot be

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Speaker 7: negotiated by the people who usually write these bills and

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Speaker 7: it's kicked up to the top, there's you could call

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Speaker 7: it a staring contest, a game of chicken. The pressure

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Speaker 7: is building on the toughest issues, and this meeting may

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Speaker 7: not be glad handing, but they'll get a sense of

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Speaker 7: where they agree, where they disagree, who has an advantage,

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Speaker 7: and who has a discisis.

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Speaker 3: And they come out to the sticks. As they say

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Speaker 3: in the business, there'll be a stake out in the driveway.

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Speaker 3: Those microphones will be set up. Does Mike Johnson walk

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Speaker 3: out in bad mouth Joe Biden or say that we

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Speaker 3: actually see eye to eye on some things.

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Speaker 7: It would be harder for him to say he sees

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Speaker 7: eye to eye.

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Speaker 5: It would harder politically.

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Speaker 7: He's got to sell a lot to conservatives who do

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Speaker 7: not want to deal with Joe Biden. He's in a

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Speaker 7: tough spot. He's got a lot of members of his

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Speaker 7: conference who do not want to vote for a stop gap.

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Speaker 7: They don't want to vote for anything that could get

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Speaker 7: past the Senate and get Biden's signature. So you know,

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Speaker 7: a Kumbaya moment is not in the cards politically for

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Speaker 7: the speaker.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's going to be a riot. We'll be talking

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Speaker 3: about it tomorrow. That is confirmed, right, Did they all

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Speaker 3: accept the invite?

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Speaker 5: They're going.

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Speaker 7: They're all invited. It would be unusual if anybody's skipped.

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Speaker 5: But Johnson's going is the point. Everyone else is just

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Speaker 5: there to bear with.

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Speaker 7: That's the two keys.

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 3: Now, I don't know if they're going to talk about

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Speaker 3: anything else, like say Ukraine. Maybe this is a very

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Speaker 3: specific topic meeting here, but this is the other matter.

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Speaker 3: As President Zelenski, who has been on quite a tour

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Speaker 3: speaking of pressure lately, tells us that thirty one thousand

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Speaker 3: Ukrainians have died in this war, the Ukrainian members of

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Speaker 3: the military, and we're seeing this kind of last minute

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Speaker 3: full court press from NATO members including Poland was on

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Speaker 3: the air with US their foreign minister making the point

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Speaker 3: here last week it was in Washington, DC. There's no

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Speaker 3: sign of anything changing here, is.

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Speaker 7: There not yet? But that's where the pressure comes in

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Speaker 7: because there's been there have been little bits of movement.

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Speaker 7: It's been pretty quiet in the last week or so,

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Speaker 7: but when you saw the Centrist House members led by

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Speaker 7: Brian Fitzpatrick, say well, we have a paired down proposal. Look,

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Speaker 7: it doesn't look like they're about to attach something on

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Speaker 7: Ukraine to one of these government funding bills. It's not

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Speaker 7: moving that quickly, but the pressure is building. You see

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Speaker 7: swing district members feel like they have to put something

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Speaker 7: out there. It's a pressure campaign. I wouldn't say it's

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Speaker 7: an absolute stasis. There has not been a lot of movement,

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Speaker 7: not a lot of negotiating, but as the pressure builds,

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Speaker 7: that's when you look for cracks and changes in people's.

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Speaker 5: I'm glad you mentioned that this brings us to the

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Speaker 5: idea of a discharge petition.

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Speaker 3: That would be very rare, and we're told stop talking

437
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 3: about it because that never happens, but it seems like

438
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 3: it might this time. To see Fitzpatrick no relation to

439
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 3: you on Sunday Morning television sitting there or the Republican

440
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 3: talking about this happening. By the way, the flannel, I

441
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 3: guess it's main It makes you wonder if we're getting

442
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: closer to something here.

443
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 5: Does Mike Johnson.

444
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: Secretly hope that they do this and he doesn't have

445
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 3: his fingerprints on it.

446
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 7: That is one way in which a discharge petition is

447
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 7: sometimes useful. That's probably the most obvious way for a

448
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 7: discharged petition to work is if leadership isn't necessarily entirely

449
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 7: opposed to putting a bill forward, but they have to

450
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 7: go to the opponents and say, look, I had no choice. Yes,

451
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 7: there are other ways. I think maybe even more important

452
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,479
Speaker 7: is if there are promises by Democrats to back him up,

453
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 7: if there's a motion to vacate the chair and not

454
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,959
Speaker 7: allow his speakership to be kicked out. Yeah, because of this,

455
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 7: that would relieve a lot of pressure on him and

456
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 7: move him toward potentially favoring Ukraine. So those are two

457
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 7: big questions there. With regard to the pressure on Mike

458
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 7: Johnson's specific.

459
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 3: Then the Senate would have to, I guess, handle or

460
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 3: deal with whatever they sent back over there. And I

461
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: bring that up because I'm just compelled by the headline

462
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 3: that John Thune has decided to endorse Donald Trump. This

463
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 3: is about as close to Mitch McConnell as you can

464
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 3: get here in the chain of command, and I wonder

465
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 3: how important that is when we've seen the hand of

466
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 3: Donald Trump impact what's happening in the House to this extent.

467
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, it is a sign of the strength of Donald

468
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 7: Trump in Republican politics that if you were harshly critical

469
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 7: of him following January sixth, now you see those same

470
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 7: people coming back to endorse Donald Trump. He's had a

471
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 7: huge effect on these Ukraine negotiations. He hasn't necessarily scuttled

472
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 7: the possibility of the AH to Ukraine, but he looms

473
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 7: large over these talks and over anything else on Capitol Hill.

474
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 7: The question of Republicans looking to Trump saying what exactly

475
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 7: does he want to do? Is he going to come

476
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 7: after me for this vote? That is one of the

477
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 7: key questions in the cash Sure.

478
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 3: Now Donald Trump's going to the border this week. Apparently

479
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 3: Joe Biden is too. He's not gonna let anything get

480
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: through on the border. Well, Joe Biden's running for reelection.

481
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 2: Is he?

482
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 7: I mean, that's again where you look to the Centrists,

483
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 7: you look to something pared down. He is largely responsible

484
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 7: for the death of that bipartisan negotiated measure led by

485
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 7: James Langford, who kind of got thrown under the bus.

486
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 7: Could there be something smaller focused on a remain in

487
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 7: Mexico policy, like Fitzpatrick brought up, that's not necessarily out

488
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 7: of the question. But yes, the former president managed to

489
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 7: basically kill a major piece of legislation and it's going

490
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 7: to be tough to see anything broad on immigration in

491
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 7: the border because of it.

492
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 5: For sure.

493
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 3: And the Senate leadership is starting to apparently come around

494
00:24:58,560 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 3: on this.

495
00:24:58,880 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: Now.

496
00:24:59,080 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 5: That's one of the three.

497
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 3: I don't think Mitch McConnell is ever going to endorse

498
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: Donald Trump.

499
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 7: Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see. That's Trump is effectively the

500
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 7: head of the Republican Party right now. It's it's a

501
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 7: lot of support for Trump among people who might have

502
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 7: surprised you.

503
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 5: Well, I'll tell you. We talk about politics a lot.

504
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: We talk about the appropriations process with you because that's

505
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 3: your specialty. But you're a generalist as well. You're a

506
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 3: political junkie. You're watching all this stuff. Imagine a world,

507
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 3: and I keep hearing in this newsroom there are two

508
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,919
Speaker 3: things that political journalists pine for every four years or

509
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 3: maybe more often. One of them is a contested convention.

510
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 3: The other is a discharge petition. Of course that could

511
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 3: come anytime. Are we going to be in a world

512
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 3: pretend we're not on the air right now.

513
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 5: Where we get both this year?

514
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 7: Ah oh man, would that be something to number of

515
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,719
Speaker 7: things that have happened or could happen this year that

516
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 7: are so so unusual. I'll admit I'm a little more

517
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 7: focused on the possibility of a shut down there during

518
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 7: the State of the Union right now.

519
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 3: Look, I've asked a lot of folks this. We have

520
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 3: less than a minute. Would that delay the speech? Does

521
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 3: Joe Biden go back to it from the White House?

522
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 7: It would be a massive embarrassment to cancel the State

523
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 7: of the Union because you shut the government down. I

524
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 7: have to think they would stick to it, and Biden

525
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 7: would relish the opportunity. My god, give it a point address.

526
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 7: Some blame Republican.

527
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: They can pay to keep the lights on in the

528
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 3: chamber for that, right Yeah, Congress cameras will work. Can

529
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 3: you imagine the booing and the heckling on that night

530
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,479
Speaker 3: as well? Are you going to be there for it?

531
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 7: I don't think I'll be in the room, but I'll

532
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 7: be around, all.

533
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 5: Right, Meet me in stat Hall, I'll be there.

534
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 3: Let's getch you on. We have special coverage that night

535
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 3: State of the Union as well as Super Tuesday. Both

536
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 3: of them are next week. We'll find out if it

537
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: shut down coincides, with a lot more to follow. Today

538
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 3: on the fastest show in Politics.

539
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

540
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

541
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business App.

542
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

543
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

544
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 8: As we talk about how Trump decisively won South Carolina,

545
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 8: as he's decisively won every primary contest thus far, it's

546
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 8: worth keeping in mind, and Nicky Haley pointed to this, Joe,

547
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 8: roughly forty percent of Republican primary voters or Republican or

548
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 8: primary voters, as there's independence in this mix as well

549
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 8: that we should consider, are not picking him, and he's

550
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 8: essentially an incumbent Republican.

551
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 5: That's true.

552
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 3: If you look at this from the incumbent standpoint, it

553
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 3: might not be as impressive I guess, to see.

554
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 5: Him win all of the early states.

555
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 3: Joe Biden's winning his as well, but you don't look

556
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 3: at it because he's the.

557
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 8: President, and so it raises a question of how those

558
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 8: primary voters may translate into general election voters and On

559
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 8: that note, we want to bring in Andrew Smith now

560
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 8: of the unh Survey Center. He is the director there. Andrew,

561
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 8: always great to see you and get your expertise. Far

562
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 8: beyond New Hampshire, of course, state that Trump also won.

563
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 8: Where do those forty percent of voters who did not

564
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 8: vote for Trump in a primary? Where are they likely

565
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 8: to go in a general election?

566
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,120
Speaker 9: Will the great majority of them are likely to go

567
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 9: and vote for Trump in a general election, presuming that

568
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 9: he's a candidate. People have a great ability to rationalize

569
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,719
Speaker 9: why their party skunk is better than the other party skunk.

570
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 9: So I imagine a lot of those voters will go

571
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 9: to vote for Trump because they're you know, they don't

572
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 9: they aren't engaged in politics that much, and they're going

573
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 9: to vote for their team, and that is the Republican Party.

574
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 9: The biggest problem that Trump has is not that they're

575
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 9: going to go over and vote for Biden, but that

576
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,919
Speaker 9: they just won't show up and turnout. I think is

577
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 9: really going to be the key issue in determining who

578
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 9: wins the election this fall. It's essentially a replay of

579
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 9: almost the last two presidential elections, and turnout of a

580
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 9: few percentage points in key states makes a difference between

581
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 9: who wins and who loses. And if say five percent

582
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 9: of those Republican voters who voted for Haley don't show

583
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 9: up in November, Donald Trump will lose.

584
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 5: So where's your head on this race? Andrew?

585
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: We left New Hampshire talking with you about a general

586
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 3: election that was already beginning. It's really looking like when

587
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 3: now you've got Trump and Joe Biden both at the

588
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: border on the same day. They're now referring to each

589
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: other directly. How long can this last for Nikki Hayley,

590
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: as you know, the potential alternative. She's in there just

591
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 3: in case something goes wrong with the Trump campaign, it seems.

592
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 3: But when does that start to look ridiculous?

593
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 9: I think you're right, she's in there in case something happens,

594
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 9: But that means that you're campaigning where you're relying on

595
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 9: something that's completely out of your control, and that's not

596
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 9: a good place to be in My sense is this

597
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 9: her campaign is really all over. But the crime to

598
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 9: use a phrase, she can stay on until Super Tuesday

599
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 9: and see when the money runs out. I think that's

600
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 9: going to be the key issue. But to the point

601
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 9: of your last guest that I think she is somebody

602
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 9: who with the Republican Party, with kind of the mainstream

603
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 9: of the old Republican parties, looking forward to as a

604
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 9: potential candidate in twenty twenty eight, presuming that Trump is

605
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 9: already the nominee this time around, so she can go

606
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 9: on for a little bit more. But I just don't

607
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 9: think she really has any avenue to winning the nomination

608
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 9: unless something really dramatic happens to Trump. And I don't

609
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 9: even think that's a conviction in a court case. I

610
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 9: think it's going to have to be something a health

611
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 9: related thing, or something that really prevents him from being.

612
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: Able to run.

613
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 8: So when you see pulling like some that we've conducted

614
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 8: here at Bloomberg Worth Morning consult that suggests that voters,

615
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 8: specifically swing state voters would be less likely to vote

616
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 8: for Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony,

617
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 8: you don't necessarily think that matches reality.

618
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 9: Well, it may match reality right now, but again, the

619
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 9: election is a long time away and people are not

620
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 9: in an election framework. By the time the election comes around,

621
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 9: you're going to have so much mud thrown by both

622
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 9: of these candidates that I have a feeling that both

623
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 9: parties are just going to hold their nose and vote

624
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 9: for the R or the D, not necessarily for the

625
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 9: candidate who's running. But it's really way too early. We've

626
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 9: not seen an election like this where the nominees have

627
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 9: been identified this early on, where there's really not much

628
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 9: going to be going on between now and then except

629
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 9: a battle between the top two people. That's just going

630
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 9: to get uglier and uglier. And my maybe that's what

631
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,239
Speaker 9: I fear it's going to get, but it's not going

632
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 9: to be something that's illuminating a sparkling example of American democracy.

633
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 3: For spending time with Andrew Smith, political scientist and head

634
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: of the UNH Survey Center, when we were in New

635
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 3: Hampshire with you, Andrew, the idea was that this state

636
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: was unique because of the independent vote, that if Nicky

637
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: Haley were to outperform anywhere, it would be here. Her

638
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 3: campaign pointed to South Carolina in the same way, what

639
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 3: did we learn from the demographic breakdown and the party

640
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 3: breakdown in the Palmetto state here to try to gauge

641
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: success and failure moving forward?

642
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 9: Well, you know, Hayley has done okay with the protest,

643
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 9: but essentially you know, Trump is going to get the

644
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 9: majority of the republic mainstream Republicans, registered Republicans, and Haley's

645
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 9: had to rely on people who are not the mainstream

646
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 9: part of the party, and obviously getting forty percent of that,

647
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 9: frankly is pretty good. And she got over forty percent

648
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 9: here in New Hampshire, which is pretty good, but it's

649
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 9: certainly not enough to win. But I think the problem

650
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 9: that we have to look at this is that Trump

651
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 9: hasn't been able to win convincingly really anywhere he's won.

652
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 9: But he is, as you say, he's the incumbent. He

653
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 9: should be able to win this by eighty to ninety percent,

654
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 9: like Biden is able to do against the say Dean Phillips.

655
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 9: What that tells me is that you've got us just

656
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 9: a deeply divided Republican party that wishes it had somebody else,

657
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 9: but it doesn't see that there is any alternative to

658
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 9: Trump at this point.

659
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 8: Andrew, you just mentioned that Biden has been able to

660
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 8: secure eighty to ninety percent of the vote. Do you

661
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 8: think he'll be able to do that in the Michigan

662
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 8: primary tomorrow? Knowing that Arab American specifically there are suggesting

663
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 8: they will be backing uncommitted instead of the president because

664
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 8: of the issue of Gaza and his role in supporting

665
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 8: Israel in that war effort against.

666
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 9: A moss Yeah, I think Biden will be fine in

667
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 9: the primary election. The Arab vote is very important, but

668
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 9: it's important in just a few places in the state,

669
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 9: and in a very close statewide election, whether or not

670
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 9: they show up and vote, it's going to be a difference.

671
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 2: But in a.

672
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 9: Democratic primary, I think Biden has all the controls of

673
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 9: the party establishment itself, so I think he'll win the

674
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 9: HANDI leive there in Michigan.

675
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 3: What does it tell you when you start to see

676
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 3: the money turn here, Andrew, this is a big headline

677
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 3: for Nikki Haley. Koch Brothers money is going down ballot,

678
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: which was really helping to breathe life into her ground operations.

679
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 5: Specifically, she's not going to have that moving forward.

680
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 2: Now.

681
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: You're used to people asking you every four years when

682
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: people are going to drop out. Give us the anatomy

683
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 3: of the end of this campaign.

684
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 9: Well, you stop running when the money runs out. That's

685
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 9: the ultimate truth of it. And I think the money

686
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 9: is slowing down dramatically, and in fact, Haley needs so

687
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 9: much money to counter Trump. In fact, I don't even

688
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 9: think there's an amount of money that she could spend

689
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 9: that would really effectively counter Donald Trump, because he's so

690
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 9: well known to the electorate and to the Republican primary

691
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 9: electorate to convince them otherwise. I think there's almost no

692
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 9: amount of money that could make that case. But she's

693
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 9: not going to have the money just to keep the

694
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 9: people going in her staff for too much longer. So

695
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 9: I think that she's likely to go through Super Tuesday.

696
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 9: She's been pretty honest by saying that. She says she

697
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 9: was going to be in South Carolina. She's there. She

698
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,360
Speaker 9: said she's going to be there at Super Tuesday. She's

699
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 9: likely going to be there. But I just can't see

700
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 9: her really practically going on mind longer than that. About

701
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 9: half of the delegates are going to be awarded on

702
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 9: Super Tuesday, and it's going to be hard for her

703
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 9: to win just anything but a fraction of those.

704
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 8: Andrew, we just have about a minute left with you.

705
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 8: But it strikes me that we always knew Nikki Hayley

706
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 8: was going to be a long shot candidate. We knew

707
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 8: that she was gaining momentum, Yet we knew that Trump

708
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 8: was still far and away ahead in pretty much every

709
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 8: poll across the board, all of which at this point

710
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 8: seemed to have proven pretty accurate. Is this the most

711
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 8: accurate election cycle you've seen in terms of polling in

712
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 8: some time?

713
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 9: Yeahlling primary is it's really kind of a little bit

714
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 9: of a crap shoot. You don't know what you're going

715
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 9: to get because you don't know who's going to show up.

716
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 9: But this has been a fairly straightforward primary going forward,

717
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 9: even including the Iowa caucuses, which are really quirky. Yeah,

718
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 9: but I think the poll has been pretty accurate, largely

719
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 9: because you essentially have an incumbent and people are either

720
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 9: going to vote for the incumbent or not. And now

721
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 9: that Hayley's the only one left, it's really just the

722
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 9: two person race. The biggest problem in primary poling always

723
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 9: is who's going to show up, and I think that's

724
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 9: one of the reasons that you see Trump's numbers overestimated

725
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 9: a little bit.

726
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 3: Remember this conversation a week from tomorrow again, that'll be

727
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 3: super Tuesday. Andrew Smith, great to see you post New Hampshire.

728
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: He's the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey

729
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: Center and a reliable voice Kayley on All Things Politics.

730
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

731
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

732
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 1: royd Oro with a Bloomberg Business app.

733
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

734
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

735
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 3: You know, it's interesting we talk about different topics and

736
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 3: ideas throughout the course of an hour. In this particular hour,

737
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 3: they all intersect. We're at the point now where you

738
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 3: cannot remove the tentacles from the campaign trail to the

739
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 3: White House to Capitol Hill, where of course Donald Trump

740
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 3: is impacting the outcome of a number.

741
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:06,919
Speaker 5: Of debates right now.

742
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, as he has the ear of the House Speaker

743
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson, and it's not really clear exactly what Mike

744
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 8: Johnson might be thinking about the looming deadline to avoid

745
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 8: a partial government shutdown.

746
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 7: Correct, come the end of Trump's.

747
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 5: Wait in on that. We don't have a truth social

748
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 5: on shutdown yet.

749
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 8: No, a lot on the border by some other things.

750
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 8: But yes, definitely stand by because of course the House

751
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 8: still isn't back. They come back to town on Wednesday,

752
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 8: and then they'll have to race over the course of

753
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 8: just three legislative duties to try to avert this. Reminding everybody,

754
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 8: this is a partial government shutdown, potentially just for appropriations bills.

755
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 8: Are the ones that are supposed to pass to avert this,

756
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 8: They're supposed to be the easy ones, to the controvers

757
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 8: are the hard ones.

758
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 5: That's true.

759
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 3: Yes, so the countdown clocks will be running here, and

760
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 3: we're going to do this twice. Although if we shut

761
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,280
Speaker 3: it down, if we start shutting down Friday, I would submit,

762
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 3: we're going to be in much more trouble the following

763
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 3: week because to your point, you know, doing the the

764
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 3: HUD bill or the FDA bill is a lot less

765
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 3: controversial than say the Pentagon or.

766
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 8: Right when you're talking defense, the big bulk of government

767
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 8: spending on the eighth, that's where it gets really tricky.

768
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 8: But of course this is all tricky already. So on

769
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,720
Speaker 8: that note, trying to work through the trickiness is Mark Goldwine,

770
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 8: who is joining us now from the Committee for a

771
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 8: Responsible Federal Budget where he is senior policy director. So, Mark,

772
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 8: how do you see this going down? What odds are

773
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 8: you personally putting on a partial shutdown by the end

774
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 8: of this week.

775
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 10: I really try not to put odds on this stuff,

776
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 10: but it's relatively high. Remember the shutdown, what happened midnight Friday,

777
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 10: so it really wouldn't matter until sometime on Monday. But

778
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 10: I think it's likely we have that little shutdown and

779
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 10: that we try to pass these individual appropriations bills and

780
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 10: then probably have kicked the can for that second set

781
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 10: of bills so that they don't have a larger shutdown

782
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 10: or a particularly long one.

783
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 3: You're, of course, again at the Committee for a Responsible

784
00:38:55,600 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 3: Federal Budget that's the name on the door mark. Is

785
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 3: is it possible we don't get a responsible federal budget

786
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 3: for this entire fiscal year because they're talking about cr

787
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 3: for the duration at this point.

788
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,720
Speaker 10: Well, it seems like we haven't had a responsible federal

789
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 10: budget in some time. But yeah, it's possible we don't

790
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 10: get any appropriations. I do think if they go the

791
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 10: route of permanent continued resolutions sort of kick the can,

792
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 10: they're going to have to make so many adjustments to

793
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 10: it that will almost look like a hybrid between a

794
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 10: continued resolution and an appropriations. But it is possible they

795
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,720
Speaker 10: can't get all their act together on the rail true appropriations.

796
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 8: Well, and of course if they don't come the end

797
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 8: of April, that's when the one percent sequester kicks in.

798
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 8: One percent cuts to everything across the board, defense included.

799
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 8: And when you're talking about defense that has a significantly

800
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 8: larger budget, that one percent is worth a lot more

801
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 8: than for other appropriations. Just can you just remind us

802
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 8: walk us through what would really happen to the government

803
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 8: financing if that one percent sequester kicks in? What would

804
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 8: be detrimentally affected?

805
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 10: Well, here's the reality. A one percent sequester by itself

806
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 10: is actually not that big a deal, and most of

807
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 10: the agencies could bear it because they've been on the CR.

808
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 10: The problem is sort of this twofold. The first is

809
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 10: it's actually more than one percent right now on the

810
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 10: non defense side because of some weird stuff relate to

811
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 10: veterans and receipts, so it's actually more like a five percent.

812
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 10: But the other is, if we do a permanent CR,

813
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 10: we don't actually get those one percent sequester. What we

814
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 10: get is no sequester for defense and something closer to

815
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,919
Speaker 10: a ten percent sequester in the non defense And trying

816
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,399
Speaker 10: to cut ten percent of your budget in just half

817
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 10: the year is just not doable. The only way is

818
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 10: really significant rolling furloughs for many of the agencies.

819
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 5: Wow.

820
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 3: Well, I mean you'd think that that would be quite

821
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 3: a deterrent mark. But it seems to me Defense spending

822
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: will be the matter that makes a difference. Right when

823
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: the Hawks get a hold of this, this is going

824
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 3: to be an ugly debate on Capitol Hill.

825
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 10: And with defense spending, it's less the level and it's

826
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 10: more this stagnation that if you do the CRS, you

827
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 10: can't actually make new choices about what contracts to enter

828
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 10: into and things like that. So with the Defense Department,

829
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 10: it's really the flexibility that matters, maybe more than the

830
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 10: actual level of spending.

831
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 8: Well, and of course, as Joe and I were discussing,

832
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 8: the first week of March is going to be pretty

833
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 8: wild because of course you have this March first deadline,

834
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 8: you have the March eighth deadline in terms of government funding,

835
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 8: and smashed in between, the President is supposed to be

836
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 8: giving his State of the Union address to a joint

837
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 8: session of Congress on March seventh, so the eve of

838
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 8: the deadline for the bigger chunk of appropriations bills that

839
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 8: need to pass, and then just a few days after that,

840
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 8: he's supposed to be giving his budget for the next

841
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 8: fiscal year, when we still haven't sorted out, as Joe

842
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 8: was alluding to the budget for this current fiscal year,

843
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 8: when the president outlines his policies, what should those policies

844
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 8: look like to be more fiscally responsible.

845
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,760
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I also heard there's some election stuff happening

846
00:41:58,800 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 10: in that same time.

847
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 7: Yes, indeed, yeah, I mean.

848
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 6: Look, we are deeply in debt.

849
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 10: Interest this year is projected to be larger than the

850
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 10: defense budget and larger than medicares. Expect to be the

851
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 10: second largest government program, which is nuts if you think

852
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 10: about it. So I hope the President comes forward with

853
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 10: significant depths of reduction. Doesn't mean balancing the budget, doesn't

854
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 10: mean paying off the debt, but at least getting US

855
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 10: five to eight trillion dollars, so the debt isn't growing

856
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 10: much faster than the economy. And that's going to have

857
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 10: to come from tax revenue, which actually this president has

858
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 10: been pretty good about talking about, and it's going to

859
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 10: have to come from spending cuts, which this president hasn't

860
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 10: really talked about at all, especially in the healthcare system

861
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 10: where there's so much waste that I think we could

862
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,879
Speaker 10: cut trillions of dollars and not even really miss it.

863
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 3: We haven't talked about raising revenues yet, Mark, is that

864
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 3: a joke?

865
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 10: Well, I mean actually just said the President's actually been

866
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 10: pretty good on this issue. I do think he only

867
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,320
Speaker 10: wants to raise taxes on the two percent of Americans

868
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 10: making over four hundred thousand dollars. I think it's a

869
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,840
Speaker 10: little silly that if we have a bad tax break,

870
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 10: we'd want to leave it into effect for somebody making

871
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 10: three hundred and ninety nine thousand. But as president actually

872
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 10: in his last budget put forward about three trillion dollars

873
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 10: of net tax increases, maybe even a little bit more.

874
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 10: And I hope he'll put forward more this time because

875
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 10: they got to be on the table so that we

876
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 10: can discuss them, figure out which ones are good, which

877
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 10: ones are bad, and ultimately we're not going to be

878
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 10: able to solve the debt without raising substantially more revenue

879
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 10: than what we're projected.

880
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 8: To Mark, just in our final minute with you, we're

881
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 8: obviously here on Bloomberg Television and Radio, where both Joe

882
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 8: and I have taken note that markets at this point

883
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 8: don't seem that concerned about fiscal risk that may out

884
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 8: be out there. A partial shutdown is not really reflected

885
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 8: at all, it seems. What would you tell the markets

886
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 8: about how worried they should be about fiscal conduct on

887
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 8: Capitol Hill.

888
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 10: Well, a shutdown itself, it's disruptive, but it's just not

889
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 10: like it's not a macroeconomic activity that's going to fundamentally

890
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 10: change the economy. And so even if I were worried

891
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 10: about shutdown, I wouldn't be worried about its effects. What

892
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 10: I worry about is what it means for the ability

893
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 10: of Congress and the President to solve other larger problems.

894
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 10: Right our debt is as large as the economy, and

895
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 10: if we can't even keep the lights on, how are

896
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 10: we gonna how are we gonna solve these major issues?

897
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 10: And if we can't solve the major issues, then we

898
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 10: are in big trouble. And I think you're starting to

899
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 10: see that a little bit in the interest rates.

900
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 5: Pay Mark.

901
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 3: It's great to see you, Mark Goldwine at the Committee

902
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 3: for a Responsible Federal Budget. Thanks for the insights here

903
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 3: and the fair warning as it does look like we

904
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 3: couldn't in fact be headed for a shutdown starting Friday.

905
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 3: Kaylee then we'll see where we are by the next

906
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 3: Friday made complete. Thanks for listening to the Balance of

907
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 3: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

908
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

909
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 3: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

910
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 3: at Noontimeeaster at Bloomberg dot com.