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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The amount of momentum that we

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Speaker 1: saw in January was distinctly different from anything that we've

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Speaker 1: seen over the last four years. Unfortunately for US. For

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Speaker 1: the US in the near term when it comes to manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: were still fit in headwind cyclemarket is effectively recalibrating. It

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Speaker 1: is taking back the losses that had made an anticipation

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Speaker 1: of a much deeper fet trajectory. Bloomberg Surveillance your link

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Speaker 1: to the world of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. It is seven am on Wall Street. It

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Speaker 1: is noon in Lester, where the Foxes have pulled off

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Speaker 1: the impossible, winning the Premier League as a five thousand

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Speaker 1: to one underdog. It is nine pm in Sydney where

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank of Australia has pulled off the unexpected,

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Speaker 1: cutting rates and setting off a global debate on the

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Speaker 1: outlook for inflation and growth, all that the weather forecast.

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Speaker 1: On Surveillance today, I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: The rb A move cutting rates to a record low

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Speaker 1: of one and three quarter percent, coupled with a cut

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Speaker 1: in the economic forecast for Europe by the European Commission

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Speaker 1: and lousy European bank earnings has markets on the wrong

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Speaker 1: foot worldwide. Noticed Tom, how we're using English idioms today

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Speaker 1: in honor of Leicester. Australia finished up two point one

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Speaker 1: percent of the right cut and fiscal stimulus from the government,

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Speaker 1: but Europe is lower. Right now, the stock six hundred

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Speaker 1: is down six points one and three quarters percent. Financials

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Speaker 1: they're down two and a quarter percent. The Dacks is

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Speaker 1: off a hundred and eighty five points one point eight percent.

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Speaker 1: The foot seat in London down seventy nine points right

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Speaker 1: now one point three percent. The Purchasing Managers Manufacturing index

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Speaker 1: there comes in showing contraction comes in in forty nine.

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Speaker 1: Brexit concerns are cited here. In the U S S

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Speaker 1: and P futures are down sixteen eight tenths of a

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Speaker 1: percent down futures one one that's three quarters of a percent,

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Speaker 1: and Nasdaq features are off thirty six eight tenths of

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Speaker 1: eight percent. Yields are dropping. People coming into US markets

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Speaker 1: for safety. It appears one point eight for your tenure

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Speaker 1: five is one in a quarter percent, and a two

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Speaker 1: year yield is seventy five basis points. Right now, what

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Speaker 1: is really falling. The Dollar index nine down another four

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Speaker 1: tenths on the day. To Lee is chief investment officer

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Speaker 1: of del Tech International. UH normally with us from the Bahamas.

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Speaker 1: But life is better here in New York where it's

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Speaker 1: cold and rainy. Right, you don't want to be that

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Speaker 1: where it's warm. It's not to be back in civilization. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: what's going on out there? Is there deflation? Is there inflation?

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Speaker 1: I mean in the US we're starting to see the

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Speaker 1: signs that prices are rising. Is this is what the

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Speaker 1: world is doing, just reflecting a dichotomy and inflation possibilities.

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Speaker 1: That's that's the exactly the point that we are saying

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Speaker 1: these doctomy in flash and outlooks from around the world,

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Speaker 1: there's clear a flash and re precious We've still got

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Speaker 1: uh capasc utilization rates which are very low in many

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Speaker 1: many parts of the world. But when we take a

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Speaker 1: step back and actually look at what's happening in the US,

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Speaker 1: there's clear inflationary coming inflationary pressure coming through from the

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Speaker 1: wages side of things. There's clear inflationary pressure coming through

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Speaker 1: when we look at capacity utilization rates are now starting

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Speaker 1: to get stretched and some of that imported deflation we

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Speaker 1: were seeing in the affecting the US over the past

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Speaker 1: year is actually coming out of the system as well,

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Speaker 1: courtesy of the dollar dropping back a little. So what

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Speaker 1: matters more. I mean, we're seeing reaction today short term

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Speaker 1: to what the RBA did, But what matters more what's

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Speaker 1: happening in US and the outlook for US inflation or

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Speaker 1: the fact that the Japanese and many countries in Asia

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Speaker 1: can't gin any up. Well, what we're seeing around the

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Speaker 1: world is definitely adding to dislocations in markets. When we

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Speaker 1: saw the moves from the Bank of Japan last week

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Speaker 1: or the lack of moves from the Bank of Japan

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Speaker 1: last week, that caused a major dislocation in markets. But

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Speaker 1: when we look at what's happening in the US, that

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Speaker 1: ultimately is going to be the driver of policy settings

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Speaker 1: around the world. The US FED fund rate is the

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Speaker 1: reference rate for the rest of the world. The US

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Speaker 1: Tenure Treasury is the reference rate for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world as well. So I think what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: happening in the US with the burgeoning inflationary pressures, that

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Speaker 1: will really start to impact as we move into Q

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Speaker 1: four two thousand sixteen and into two thousand and seventeen,

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Speaker 1: those inflationary pressures will end up dominating well. Sergio Mardy,

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Speaker 1: the CEO of UBS, reported first quarter profit today dropped

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Speaker 1: the stock is down by eight and a half percent

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Speaker 1: in Europe right now, said we're seeing volatility quote, but

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Speaker 1: it's not the kind of volatility that is translating to

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Speaker 1: client activity. It's a paralyzing volatility. Is that what you're

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Speaker 1: seeing as well? That's certainly what we're seeing. We're seeing

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Speaker 1: huge dislocations in markets in this year already. Of course,

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Speaker 1: we started the year with the worst six weeks start

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Speaker 1: to the year ever for equity markets. We've seen dislocations

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Speaker 1: across currency markets. So nobody wants to treat because they're afraid.

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Speaker 1: And that's what it is. It's it isn't the type

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Speaker 1: of volatility way you say opportunities come out come out

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Speaker 1: of the woodwork. It's actually the top of volatility where

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Speaker 1: you say these displocations and it causes people to question.

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Speaker 1: Really a lot of the models that are looking at

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Speaker 1: it causes us to question. We run models on a

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Speaker 1: huge number of of of autems uh in in our

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Speaker 1: outlook paces, and the Dell tekets caused us to re

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Speaker 1: look at all of our models. Good morning, Michael, good morning,

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Speaker 1: You're you're slow today, I'm I'm I've been celebrating Lester. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I've been celebrating Lester all night. Actually, the red Sox

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Speaker 1: in first place is a pretty good idea. And your

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Speaker 1: Penguins one last night they did it was a big

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Speaker 1: name of late game too. They went forever Bloomers Surveillance

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Speaker 1: and folks. This morning, folks, we said good morning to

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Speaker 1: all in Australia as well with the big news there

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Speaker 1: Bloomers Surveillance, brought you by Investco. Investco believes it's time

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Speaker 1: to bench the benchmarks and to consider active management factor

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Speaker 1: based strategies. Find out more investco dot com, slash high conviction.

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Speaker 1: It has been an extraordinary morning as I set out

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Speaker 1: on Twitter. There's a real shift here. You see in

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Speaker 1: a three standard deviation, almost three standard deviation. Move a

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Speaker 1: euro dollar and make you mentioned stronger. Yeah as well

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Speaker 1: one oh five point eight one a tool the idea

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Speaker 1: of linkoln And you said this earlier transmission mechanisms. How

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Speaker 1: does central bank activity transmit over to the real economy.

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Speaker 1: Well that the primary tool in which it occurs is

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Speaker 1: via the banking system, and so when we see these

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Speaker 1: problems across European banks, that's a real problem because it

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Speaker 1: means that the transmission mechanism from what the ECB is

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Speaker 1: doing into the real economy is not working. That's a

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Speaker 1: stark contrast in Europe to what we're seeing in the US.

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Speaker 1: When we see the FED Senior Officer Senior Line Officer survey,

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Speaker 1: which was out yesterday, you were saying that transmission mechanism

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Speaker 1: at work. We're still clearly seeing that loans to consumers

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Speaker 1: are being east. So the transmission mechanism is working very well.

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Speaker 1: In the US, it's not working very well at all.

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Speaker 1: Why Why isn't that that's the huge y? Isn't it well?

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Speaker 1: That the reason is the problems in the banking system.

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Speaker 1: When the banking system in Europe is still deleveraging, when

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Speaker 1: it's still getting rid of bad assets, which are largely

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Speaker 1: emerging market exposed assets, when they're bad commercial loans out

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Speaker 1: of Europe, When banks in Europe at de leveraging, they're

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Speaker 1: going to be very reticent towards extending new loans and

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Speaker 1: actually transmitting that easy their monetary policy. Can I admit

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Speaker 1: I'm a tourist, a sort of naively look at Australia

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Speaker 1: banking like I look at Canadian banking, which is it's

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Speaker 1: extremely robust, small set of banks. Is that true? Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's a very good way of looking at the banking

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Speaker 1: sector that they're They're very similar in terms of you've

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Speaker 1: got a few major pillar banking institutions out there. I

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Speaker 1: think that that the element that we're looking at from

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Speaker 1: a market's perspective right now is both Australian and Canadian

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Speaker 1: banks have a huge increase in nonperforming loans ahead of

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Speaker 1: them as this commodities boom on wines and impacts asset

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Speaker 1: prices across their economies. That's the similarity to look at

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Speaker 1: that right now. The the FED is seems to be

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Speaker 1: at the center of all these concerns. Uh. If they

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Speaker 1: raise rates, it helps emerging markets, it helps Australia, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of people say it hurts the US economy.

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Speaker 1: And then the US economy is the one that's supposed

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Speaker 1: to buy all of everybody's stuff and make the world better.

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Speaker 1: So where would you go? What would you advise them

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Speaker 1: to do? The FEDS in a difficult situation because actually

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Speaker 1: we take the view that as the FED raisers rates,

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Speaker 1: that removes the US dollar liquidity from the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world. Six pc of global GDP relies on US

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Speaker 1: all liquidity, So when the FED raisers rates, it has

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Speaker 1: a huge impact on the rest of the world. It's

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Speaker 1: actually very negative for emerging markets because emerging markets are

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Speaker 1: so heavily reliant on US doll liquidity just to fund themselves.

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Speaker 1: They rely on those U s dollar capital inflows. And

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Speaker 1: so when we start to see the FED raised rates,

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Speaker 1: it has such a massive impact across the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world that causes a lot of this volatility that

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Speaker 1: the FED suddenly stuck in this situation where this food

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Speaker 1: feedback loop from them raising rates into the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world. That volatility impacting the US market leaves them

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Speaker 1: in this very difficult situation and and frankly has left

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Speaker 1: them in a situation I've been in right now. They

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Speaker 1: were on a very clear path to raise rights, and

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Speaker 1: then we sold a volatility in like late two thousand

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Speaker 1: fifty in earlier two thousand and sixteen from their earlier actions,

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Speaker 1: and that's really day rail the story that they had,

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Speaker 1: which is right to gonna steadily rise this year. Let's

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Speaker 1: come back. There's a red button. Oh Mike quickly, what

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Speaker 1: do you got No, I was just saying, um, well,

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Speaker 1: we'll we'll discuss it here in a little bit. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, I wanted to ask about the the the

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Speaker 1: the whether the dollar is too important. Well, I I agree,

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Speaker 1: let's come back and lead with that. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a good idea. Let me do an extended data check here.

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Speaker 1: With markets really on the move. It's a very subtle,

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Speaker 1: nuanced move, but clearly risk of futures were negative eleven.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna call it now negative fifteen down futures negative

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Speaker 1: one twenty two with a vengeance. US yields in the

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Speaker 1: two year in four bases points point seven five percent,

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Speaker 1: the ten year one in a solid seven huge seven

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Speaker 1: basis point move. Their oil doesn't play five down fifty

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Speaker 1: three cents on West Texas Intermediate Gold flat twelve ninety six.

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Speaker 1: The announce where you see it. I'm watching German two

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Speaker 1: and ten year yields. They have come in only in

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Speaker 1: the last hour. They've really broken down. Not down to

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Speaker 1: any kind of doing thos or anything like that, but

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Speaker 1: the German two year negative point four nine three. Bears

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Speaker 1: watching Euro one seventy eight en one oh five eight

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Speaker 1: two and Sterling on sixty two show the abupt currency

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Speaker 1: move Australian dollar UH stronger US point seven five six

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Speaker 1: two on the Aussie dollar. This morning, time now to

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Speaker 1: bring in Michael Barr and get the latest world and

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Speaker 1: national headlines. Michael Nke time, Thank you very much. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is hoping today will be the knockout against rival

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Speaker 1: Ted Cruz. It is primary day in Indiana, bolshield Trump

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Speaker 1: leading heading into today's vote. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders admits he

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Speaker 1: has a tough battle to catch Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton.

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Speaker 1: Sanders says as though a good showing today could give

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Speaker 1: him momentum all the way into California. An American serviceman

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Speaker 1: has been killed near or Bial in Iraq. Defense Secretary

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Speaker 1: Ash Carter, who is in Germany consulting with European allies,

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Speaker 1: says it is a combat death. Former New York Assembly

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Speaker 1: Speaker Sheldon Silver will learn his fate following last year's

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Speaker 1: conviction in a corruption case. Just today is scheduled to

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Speaker 1: sentence the Manhattan Democrat. The government has asked that he

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Speaker 1: served substantially more than a decade in prison. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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