1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene Jaylie. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. So 5 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 1: the main event, it's Chairman Powell. In this first semi 6 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: annual testimony Deutsche Banks Alan Ruskin saying the following, and 7 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: I love this quote. When a new sheriff comes to town, 8 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: what does he do if things have been unruly? He 9 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: asserts himself and shows whose boss. If the old regime 10 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: was largely peaceful, successful, he follows the old sheriff's protocols. 11 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: So is it time to follow the old sheriff's product tools. 12 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: Let's ask Brian Levitt shown we openheim At Funds Senior 13 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: investment strategist, BRIANO. It's great a cash up with you. 14 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: Is that what today is about? Keeping the peace and 15 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: not saying too much? Yes, that's what today is about. 16 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: And this is a federal reserve who is going to 17 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: be gradually raising interest rates. But you'll hear things like 18 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: data dependent and you know the expectation of continued improvements 19 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: in the US economy and and rising inflation expectations, which 20 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: is all good news for the equity markets and good 21 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: news for households. But UM, remember the Federal Reserve is 22 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: still looking at their preferred measure of inflation, which is 23 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 1: below their comfort zone. And and so we have some 24 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: time here. I think that investors shouldn't get too concerned 25 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,479 Speaker 1: that this tightening cycle UM is gonna curtail this cycle 26 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: anytime soon. There is some excitement out there, Brian about 27 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: the prospect of moving from three hikes to four. One 28 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: on earth with a new chairman Jerome pal come in 29 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: and make that move, to communicate to the market this early, 30 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: He would not, And and I gotta be honest with you, 31 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: I don't see why why anybody would UM want to 32 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: set forth and say we're gonna have four interest rate 33 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: hikes in the coming year. Remember the last or in 34 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 1: this year. The last time we did that, I believe 35 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: was in late early sixteen. Stanley Fisher was was signaling 36 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 1: four interest rate hikes in the year ahead, and the 37 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: dollar rallied substantially. So the Fed wants to be cautious 38 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: on this. The good news is this is not late 39 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: growth outside the United States looks a lot better than 40 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: it did in late so we don't need to see 41 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 1: the dollar rally significantly on the back of interest rate hikes. 42 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: But if the Fed gets too tight, they could flatten 43 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: the Yelk curve and and increase the dollars. So I 44 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 1: don't We're not going to hear four interest rate hikes 45 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: this year. We're gonna hear, you know, gradual rise in rates, 46 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: but it'll be data depending at each meeting. So another 47 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: question that overhangs the new leadership of the Federal Reserve 48 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: is how willing he may be to allow for an 49 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: inflation overshoot. Big conversation about that brant going into this um. 50 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: Do you think this Federal Reserve is willing to accommodate 51 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: an inflation overshoot? Well, it's spect that this this Federal 52 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: Reserve is going to be willing to allow inflation above 53 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: two percent for a period of time. That doesn't mean 54 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: high and rising inflation, like there's a there's a level 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: where high and rising inflation is detrimental to businesses in 56 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: the equity market. But when you're coming out of a 57 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: deflationary scare in two thousand and eight, a deflationary scare 58 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: in sixteen. The last thing you want to do is 59 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: harm the first time you see any real hints of inflation. 60 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: Brian love it with this with Hoppenheimer Funds. Good morning everyone, 61 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: John Farrell and Tom Keen. Huge news flow this morning, 62 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: just just just stunning what we had to deal with 63 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: early in the morning. We're gonna do a lot on that, 64 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: particularly this this amazing British merger of Sky TV, and 65 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: of course we're hugely advantage toy of John Farrell where 66 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: this Who's do you watch a lot of Sky John? 67 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: And like a Sky Yeah, Yeah, fantastic platform. Brian love 68 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: it with us. And you know what's interesting And I 69 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: mentioned this yesterday at chart by Dean Baker or SEEP 70 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: showing inflation and taking out shelter and there's still no 71 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: inflation when you take out shelter. This sort of reminds 72 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: me of Janet Yellen and cell phones, where she's gonna 73 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: be He's gonna be in a press conference and they're 74 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: gonna go raise Race, Race is gonna go yeah X shelter. 75 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: But there's a lot of yeah butts when he goes 76 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: to his first press conference. Well sure, but if I 77 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: mean there are there're gonna be some components of inflation, 78 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 1: some things that we purchase going up in price, but 79 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: the aggregate numbers are still I mean, we look at 80 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: a lot of things that we consume. We are the 81 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: beneficiaries of as consumers, as lower cost labor around the world, UM, automation, uh, 82 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: things that are bringing the price of a lot of 83 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: our goods down. So we do and we and we 84 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 1: have not seen the substantial credit growth that usually leads 85 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 1: to a significant amount of money chasing too few goods? 86 00:04:55,240 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: Should we do a chart for bluebird radio work? So 87 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: he should do it, John two thousand two. Cleveland CPI 88 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: my favorite number. I know. It is up to two 89 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: points six zero percent early this year off a cliff, 90 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: and it's rebounded about two thirds. But the Cleveland CPI 91 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: hasn't broken out yet. Granted, the vectors in the power 92 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: like you know, one to three four rate increased direction, 93 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: but we're not there yet. And co PC isn't there 94 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: yet either, Brian. So it just makes you wonder what 95 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: the thinking is either the Federal Reserve. Now, I know 96 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: it started to improve recently, at least in terms of 97 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: how they would view things, but quite obviously to a 98 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: lot of people. The bias has been to hike regardless 99 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: of the data, even though they tell us the data dependent. Um, 100 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: can you give me some insight as to why I 101 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: think the people believe that there that were the economy 102 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: is doing better, the patient is, you know, out of 103 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: the emergency room, and there's no reason to a lot 104 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: of people to have this type of ongoing support for 105 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: the economy. What I would counter with that is, you know, 106 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: we've gone through the de leveraging process. The economy is 107 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: doing well, but the last thing you want to do 108 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 1: is curtail the cycle unnecessarily when more households are are 109 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: participating in the economic expansion and there's still more people 110 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: left to come into the equity markets. I also think 111 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: one of the concerns, Jonathan, is that we have never 112 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: seen stimulus to this extent this late in the cycle 113 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: on the fiscal side. So you know, those that grew 114 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: up in the late seventies and early eighties have this 115 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: fear that we could get back to the environment where 116 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: inflation gets out of hand. I would counter that by saying, 117 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: we are a long ways away from what we saw 118 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: in the late seventies. In the early rise is a 119 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: really important theme that staving and drive at Raffiki has 120 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 1: been up running some research about recently. It's how does 121 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve communicate that it's leaning against the policy 122 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: goals of this administration by having tied to monetory policy, 123 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: because you're getting sophiscal So now, serious, serious question, How 124 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: on earth does the Federal Reserve communicate that effectively what 125 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: it's going to be doing is leaning against the policy 126 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: goals of this administration. Yeah, and we do have an 127 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: independent central bank, and I hope that we continue to 128 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: have an independent central bank. And and so the point 129 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: is on the administration and Congress are going to be 130 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: stepping on the gas pedal at the time that the 131 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: Fed is going to be stepping on the brake. So 132 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: what you get in the States is a bounce between 133 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: expansion and slow down. And my opinion that's fine for markets. 134 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: But I think markets will outperform when you have recovery 135 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: and expansion. That's the international and emerging markets. Brian Levin, 136 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciate with and now, and 137 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: particularly after our discussion yesterday was center deportment of Ohio. 138 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to get away from the drone of 139 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: the different issues of Washington, and I can do that 140 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: nicely with Margaret Tullef. She's our senior White House correspondent. 141 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: UH loads and loads of perspective here on the history 142 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: of the White House and on the temperament of the 143 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: White House in this fractious February. In the March of 144 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: two thousand e tream Margaret. There's a paragraph off of 145 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: Laura Litvin's work where the President had a private lunch 146 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: Sunday with Wayne LaPier of the n r A and 147 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: their top lobbyist, Christopher Cox. He's spoken with Paul Ryan, 148 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: He's spoken with Mitch McConnell. And there's going to be 149 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: a bipartisan lawmakers meeting tomorrow with the President. What is 150 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: he going to say to them or how is he 151 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: going to listen to them? I mean, it is really 152 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: the most important question right now when you think about 153 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: the prospects of having any legislation or change come out 154 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: of this tragedy. And so far the reaction from Capitol 155 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: Hill is that the President, who has been a little 156 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,079 Speaker 1: bit all over the map. On the one hand, E 157 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: and his top aids have said they have a sense 158 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,319 Speaker 1: of urgency. There is a moment here there is a 159 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: window they want something to be done, and then on 160 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: the other hand, they have not yet come forward with 161 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: specific asks. This is what we wanted to plan, this 162 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: is what we don't and he's thrown out things like 163 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: army teachers or whatever that are. You know, lightning rod 164 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: is not going to happen at the federal legislative level, 165 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,479 Speaker 1: and so a lot of lawmakers in the Republican Party 166 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: are now either waiting for guidance if they're in the 167 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: camp that wants something to be done, or are not 168 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: waiting for guidance and think very little as getting done. 169 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: And Democrats are in an interesting position because while the 170 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: overwhelming majority of the Democratic Party uh when they go 171 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 1: home to their constituency say they want this, there are 172 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: an important handful of Democratic lawmakers to particularly in the Senate, 173 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: particularly in tight races this year, who don't necessarily want 174 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: to be having test votes on something unless it's actually 175 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: gonna happen. You know, Margaret, what I find so important here, 176 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 1: and you've got a lot more perspective at watching paint 177 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: dry than I do, is the advantage here for the 178 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: entrenched Republicans is to let time go by, and the 179 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: time will slip by and we'll move on. Is that 180 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: the arch presidential strategy? Well, if that's what the president 181 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: is trying to accomplish, that's certainly always true. But I 182 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: really am hearing from inside these what the president does 183 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: want to get things done. The question are what does 184 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 1: he want to get done and how does he want 185 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: to get it done? And in my conversations last night, 186 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: there seems to be a strategy emerging with the White 187 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: House where they would they believe that it makes sense 188 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: to do this in waves, but if you do sort 189 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: of an omnibus gun control package, there's too many constituencies 190 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:40,719 Speaker 1: who will be against too many little parts and the 191 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: whole thing will fall apart. So they want to do 192 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 1: this low hanging fruit first, this six Nick's thing, and 193 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: then they want to come back with school safety grants 194 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: and then kind of come back and try another wave. 195 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 1: It looks like one of the immediate casualties to all 196 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 1: of this is the prospect of raising the age on 197 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 1: the faults. Why is that one? I had three people 198 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 1: yesterday asked me the why of that? Not that I 199 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: have any unique wisdom on this, but let's parse and 200 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: whatever the gun is an A or whatever the gun 201 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: is that that that creates this horror? What's the difference 202 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: between sixteen eight? Hike? Right? I think the simple answer, 203 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 1: and there really are no simple answers in gun control, 204 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 1: is that this is a crucial issue for the lobby, 205 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: and it is an issue that UM lawmakers, either who 206 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 1: believe in this ideologically or who faced primary challenges, don't 207 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: want to fight out. But even the White House, and 208 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: I talked to officials in the White House, they what 209 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: they kind of sigh when you say, what are the 210 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: prospects creating the age? They say there seems to be 211 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 1: a different UM gun instinct or reaction on whether a 212 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: little bit more can be done on background checks. The 213 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: bump stock thing seems to be easier, but uh, you know, 214 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,679 Speaker 1: whether this goes to gun sales. Are in the right 215 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: to bear arms? It is like it's an obvious question 216 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: if you can regulate um, you know, alcoholis, why can't 217 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: you regulate the age of having a gun exactly? I mean, 218 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you're Margaret, You're way too young 219 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 1: to remember when they took the drinking age from eighteen 220 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: up to twenty one. And you know, we had guys 221 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: literally dying in wars in Asia while we were raising 222 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:14,199 Speaker 1: the drinking age. Nobody really could figure out. Yeah, you know, 223 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: I didn't miss the cut. I was living it and 224 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: it was sporting to say. At the least, Margaret Tell, 225 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: when we look at all this, you'd think conversations would 226 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: be engaged. I tried to do that yesterday from the 227 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: junior senator from Ohio, Rob Portman, the Senator from Cincinnati. 228 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: We talked about Holland, Ohio on the border with Michigan, 229 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:38,679 Speaker 1: and about he has a constituency with a real agricultural 230 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: fabric and they believe in an n r A of 231 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 1: a different time and place. Is the President engaging the 232 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: Rob Portman's of the Republican Party. Uh. The President does 233 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 1: not seem to have decided precisely what he wants to 234 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: ask for yet, And what we do know is that 235 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 1: he's engaged the n of the world and talking to 236 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: the K Street crew, when with the starting point so 237 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: far has in terms of those behind general discussions, has 238 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: been basically, what can I get without too much of 239 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: a fight? Could we start there? If he wants to 240 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: get something big done, he's gonna need to flip the switch. 241 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: But he seems to have decided were now that getting 242 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: a few smaller things done is pieces may be more 243 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: effective than getting a big thing done, Margaret to shift 244 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 1: gears here in the final few minutes we have with you, 245 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,719 Speaker 1: um this morning. There seems to be a great curiosity 246 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: within the zeitgeist and certainly within my messaging and email 247 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 1: from listeners over the future of the two generals, General 248 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 1: Kelly and General McMaster. Do you lump them together? Are 249 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 1: those two separate conversations for the President, for Mr Kushner 250 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: and others within the White House? Well, we have always 251 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,319 Speaker 1: been really different figures. I mean McMaster came in and 252 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: as kind of a caretaker after Mike Flynn debacle to 253 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: stabilize things, But things with he and the President were 254 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: always a little bit on easy. McMaster's, you know, like 255 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: it has a different kind of style and has been 256 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: more of a facilitator. Kelly is this guy who he 257 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: and President Trump were sort of forged in the crucible 258 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: of the immigration fight. And he's like a you know, 259 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 1: like a manly man like getting there and gets stuff done, 260 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,439 Speaker 1: and and he has that sort of the generals of 261 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: the Capital chief thing that President Trump vincerally responds to. 262 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: But then of course became competitive with almost instantly. You 263 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: could like see that coming three miles away. So in 264 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: their uh, in their manner, they're completely different in the 265 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: type of ways in which the interact are completely different. 266 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 1: The one thing they have in common is that they're 267 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: sometimes chafe at one another, and that President Trump has 268 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: had tensions with them both. I do see them separate 269 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: in terms of the specific calculus. McMaster's job is, by 270 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: design is more of a facilitator job. The chief of 271 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: staff job, particularly when you have a president without real 272 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: political experience, is uh much more kind of one of channeling, 273 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: you know, power and decision making. So but they do 274 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: both speak to kind of that push and pull about 275 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: Presidents Trump's desire to have competent leadership versus President Trump's 276 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: desire to have the flexibility to pivot when he wants 277 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: to Thank you so much. I could go to the 278 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: tweets of the President today, but we'll leave it that 279 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: Margaret Tell has been more than generous with her time. 280 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: Our senior White House corresponded her interview of the day 281 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: on Sky Craig Moffett Moffett uh Nathan Soon Mr. Years 282 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: writing Black Books at Sanford Bursting. Craig I want to 283 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: cut to the chase. US satellites doesn't work, Sky satellites. 284 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: What's Comcast getting themselves into with satellites? Yeah, good morning Tom. 285 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 1: You know, look, I think that's going to be the 286 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 1: question of the day, and I think that Comcast investors 287 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: are going to be scratching their heads over this um 288 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: for a while, irrespective of whether they actually win the 289 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: bidding here or whether Disney comes in and top says, 290 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: when satellite has been proven to already be an obsolete 291 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: technology in the US and and starting to go into 292 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: free fall, why in heaven's name is Comcast saying we 293 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: want a piece of that in Europe before that same 294 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: evolution takes place. Within this is the profitability. I looked 295 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg quickly, and it looks like Comcast is 296 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 1: way more profitable than Sky. Can they move the needle down? 297 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: The income statement on emerged Sky TV not clear why? 298 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Comcast is a good operator, but 299 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: it's not clear that that Sky is not a good operator. 300 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: And so um so I'm not sure that there's some 301 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: missing magic sauce that Comcast bring to the table. Well, 302 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: explained US Craig. Why then a T and T in 303 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: their direct TV operations? Is that not successful? And I 304 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: thought that people were cutting the cord. People are cutting 305 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: the cord and that's the problem for a T and 306 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: T and direct TV. I mean, look direct tv, um, 307 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 1: they bought direct tv what two and a half years 308 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: ago for eight times ibata UM. Two and a half 309 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 1: years later, Ibada is growing at negative at direct TV. 310 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: Subscribership is starting to fall pretty rapidly. Subscribership for Dish 311 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: Network is falling at almost ten percent a year, and 312 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: there he does, falling by five Um, Why in Heaven's 313 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: name again would you want to own a piece of that? 314 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: When you look in your colleague and crying Michael Nathanson, 315 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:46,200 Speaker 1: When the two of you look in folks generally Mofatt's hardware, wireless, Comcast, 316 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: and Nathanson does touchy feeling he gets to go to 317 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: the movie openings and where exactly you get to go 318 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: to conventions about plumbing and pipes, Craig, when the two 319 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: of you got together on this, to me and Pim, 320 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 1: it's started with eight T and T time, Warner, let's 321 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: back up. Why are we having a mating of everyone 322 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: in all in media? Um? Well, the first the first 323 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: thing I would say, is it's not entirely clear that 324 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 1: we are. UM. But let's go back into the dark 325 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: ages for a second. UM. When there were a set 326 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: of rules passed way back in in UH in the 327 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 1: UH in the Cable Act that that created a prohibition 328 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: carried through the Telecom Act, that created a prohibition for 329 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: vertically integrated UM operators against withholding content from their competitors. 330 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: Those were called the program Access Rules or the exclusivity 331 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 1: provisions of the Program Access Rules in in Layman's terms 332 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 1: simple language. They kept it. They made sure that if 333 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: you were a distributor that also owned content, that you 334 00:18:55,440 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: couldn't exercise under market power by withhold thing that content from, 335 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: say a satellite operator and leaving them from being able 336 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: to compete. When those rules sunset. There was back in 337 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: two thousand nine, there was some speculation that that the 338 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 1: doors had been thrown open to vertical integration and that 339 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: new strategies that would effectively work around content exclusivity UM 340 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: were made possible UM, And that may still be true. UM. 341 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: You know, Comcast agreed to provisions that would UM that 342 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 1: would prohibit that kind of behavior for the first seven years. 343 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: Well those seven years expire um, sorry ten years. Those 344 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: those ten years expire in June. In Mark, I mean, 345 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: so next month you're going to get to find out 346 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: whether Comcast can do some of those kinds of things. 347 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: A T and T may be able to do some 348 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 1: of those kind of things too, and if so, you 349 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: could see more of these types of deals with the 350 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: time that we've got left with you. Is Mr robertson 351 00:19:58,080 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 1: a bidding work. I mean, this is all the dusk 352 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: in a settle and the whole I did an extrapolation 353 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: chart which I can send and you can give me 354 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: your royalty and off at Nathanson. But I did a 355 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: log extrapolation chart. We're right on extrapolation and by definition 356 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: it's got to go for one or two standard deviations 357 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: above the eight year trend. That tells me bidding war. 358 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: Is that what you guys see here? Yeah? Look, I 359 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: think UM Disney will have to come back um and 360 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: decide what it wants to do here the markets already 361 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: anticipating that there will be a higher bid. Um. I 362 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 1: think the real question here is is this a prelude 363 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: to a Comcast bid for the rest of the same 364 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: Fox assets in the US that Disney is trying to 365 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: buy and this doesn't preclude that in any way. And 366 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 1: they were on their conference call they were pretty clear 367 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: that um that they aren't ruling that out. They didn't 368 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,199 Speaker 1: want to talk about it. And so if the judge 369 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: in the COMCAT or in the Time Warner A T 370 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: and T case approves the vertical integration of a T 371 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: and T and Time Warner, then the regulatory door is 372 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: open for Comcast to then try to buy a box. 373 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 1: And you can see a bitting war for the rest 374 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 1: of Fox. That a lot hinges on what happens in 375 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 1: that A T and T Time Warner trial. We'll have 376 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: much more to say, I'm sure, Craig Moffatt, thank you 377 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: so much. On short notice, Mafitt Nathanson, if you have 378 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: been taken by the news out of China, this is 379 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: without question, I've only the interview of the day, but 380 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,199 Speaker 1: the interview of the week. On short notice. I'm absolutely 381 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: thrilled to bring to you Stephens Saying out of Oxford 382 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: now at the University of London, and they're wonderful School 383 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 1: of Oriental and African Studies s o A. S Dr. 384 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: Saying is absolutely definitive. His one volume on Hong Kong 385 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 1: is heartbreaking at its end when Chris Patton hands over 386 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 1: the keys to the Chinese doctors, saying, wonderful to have 387 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,880 Speaker 1: you with us this morning. Were you surprised by the 388 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: dictatorship or the extension of President Gee's term. I was 389 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: surprised that he would push it for the extension of 390 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: the potential extension for his term of office as State president. 391 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: I was surprised because it is unnecessary. The State presidency 392 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 1: is a ceremonial position, is not an office with real power, 393 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 1: and the office of real power is being General Secretary 394 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: of the Communist Party of China. There's no limits to 395 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 1: how many terms he can serve as General Secretary, so 396 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: it's not necessary for Ji Jimpings to extend his um 397 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: potential for him to stay on a state president, knowing 398 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:05,399 Speaker 1: well that there will be significant discomfort within the Communist 399 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: Party and the population at large, and yet he pressed 400 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: for that within This is the divide between presidents activities 401 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: foreign and the power play domestically. Does this set him 402 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 1: up more for foreign advancement with his relation with other nations, 403 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 1: or does it have a stronger domestic component. I think 404 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: he's a strong component of vanity more than anything. Else. 405 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 1: The only difference whether he stays on as state president 406 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: in twenty three or not, it's whether he can have 407 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: formal state visits. When he travels overseas as the leader 408 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 1: of China holding the office of General Secretaryship of the 409 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: Communist Party, he will be treated as the leader of 410 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: China wherever he goes, and he will be able to 411 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,640 Speaker 1: have some meetings. She just cannot have sat to day 412 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: foremost day visits. And that is the only difference, doctor saying. 413 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: I went back and looked at an interview I did 414 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: on September fourteenth of two thousand four or fourteen years 415 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 1: ago when the acclaimed Marshall Goldman, who at the time 416 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: was in Moscow, and really it was one of those 417 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: days where he realized and others realized that Mr Putin 418 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: was going to do a power play and maintain his 419 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 1: decades long influence. Did we see a Putin equivalencye yesterday 420 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: and Sunday? Did we see did we see President g 421 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: try to get the power that we have perceived out 422 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: of Mr Putin over the last decade. I think we 423 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 1: saw confirmation over the weekend wather than the indications he made, 424 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 1: the indication that at the nineteenth Party Congress last October 425 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 1: when he broke with the convention after majodong In not 426 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: allowed going a successors to him to be named at 427 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 1: the nineteen Party Congress, which what happens the Constitutional convention um. 428 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 1: What he did over the weekend was to confirm that 429 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,679 Speaker 1: this is indeed his intention to do so, and he 430 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: will do so not only by holding power, but holding 431 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: onto the three top offices that he holds currently at 432 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: his own pleasure. Your magisterial A Modern History of Hong Kong, 433 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 1: which folks, it was my book of the year too 434 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,959 Speaker 1: long ago, and Stephen Yang's younger days Doctors saying you 435 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: ended with a chapter building a new Kitchen. How's the 436 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,199 Speaker 1: building of the new kitchen going in China and for 437 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 1: that matter, in Hong Kong. Well, the new kitchens that 438 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: Chris Patton built in Hong Kong just before nineteen nine 439 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: was complete, lead dismountled, and so that is now gone, 440 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: and Hong Kong is increasingly under pressure from the Chinese 441 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: government to hold the line, and this will continue even 442 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: further under ci gimping. Now in terms of what's happening 443 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: in China, I think what is disconcerting most is that 444 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: the way, what the way how Jimping is managing things 445 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: means that he is reducing the scope for internal debates 446 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 1: before policies are being made. China has a very unusual 447 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 1: system compared to ours. Both the American and the British 448 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: systems can deal with mothering food, we can steal with 449 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:55,359 Speaker 1: leaders who are not particularly fit for office, because the 450 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 1: system will limit what damage they can do. China has 451 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 1: a system that requires the Communist Party and its leader 452 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: to get its policies right really all the time, in 453 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,639 Speaker 1: orders to in orders to deliver a better tomorrow for 454 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 1: everybody today. Stephen saying with us. Of course, he's with 455 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: the uh School of Oriental and African Studies at the 456 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: University of London, Doctor saying, let me bring in my colleague, 457 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 1: doctor saying, I was wondering if you could offer your 458 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,879 Speaker 1: thoughts about what are some of the assumptions and the 459 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: misconceptions that particularly investors or even policymakers in the United 460 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: States have about China. They look at it as something monolithic, 461 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,920 Speaker 1: and they may not even speak the language or other culture. Well, 462 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:49,679 Speaker 1: China is not monolithic monolithic um At the moment, it 463 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:54,360 Speaker 1: may largely speak with one voice because basically sh Jimping 464 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,719 Speaker 1: doesn't want alternative voices to be heard. It doesn't mean 465 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 1: there are no other exist even in the current situation 466 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 1: with the UH. With the way how c Jimping has 467 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: to manage the two steps U confirmation of his intentions 468 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 1: to stay in office and stayed in power for a 469 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:24,399 Speaker 1: very long time, it shows that he is still facing obstacles. 470 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: He could not have both at the ninete Party Congress 471 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: back in October. He has to deny somebody becoming his 472 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: successor in the Nineteing Congress and wait for another four 473 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: months before he could ask the party and the country 474 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: to approve the prospect for him to stay on as 475 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 1: state president. I mean that shows that he is not 476 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 1: completely absolutely UH in control and there are other voices, 477 00:28:56,320 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 1: but other voices will not come out unless and until 478 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 1: She Jumping gets into serious problems, perhaps with the economy 479 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: in China in serious trouble. What do we overestimate and 480 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 1: underestimate when we think of the power of President Ji Jimping. 481 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 1: I think we would overestimate if we try to compare 482 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 1: Si Jimping with Machadong Uh. Si Jimping is not a 483 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: maoist and he is not trying to restore Maoist to 484 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 1: the retarianism, but he is a very uh strong and 485 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 1: devoted Leninist. A letinist is somebody who believes in the 486 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: Communist Party, who uses the Communist Party as the main 487 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 1: instrument for controlling everything. Are there any garbage out there 488 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:51,880 Speaker 1: in China? There is no go in on the horizons 489 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 1: in China. And in fact, in twenty twelve, when she 490 00:29:55,640 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 1: Jumping become leader, the first major announcement he made was 491 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: that under his watch China, the Communist Party of China 492 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 1: will not make the mistake of the Communist Party of 493 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union and allowed to take it like Gobachov 494 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 1: to emerge, he will squash him the minute he says 495 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: such a think, emerging professor saying thank you so much. 496 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 1: We greatly appreciate. It's just saying with us, folks, and 497 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: of course this will lead our podcasts this morning in 498 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 1: ac usually eventful day. He is with the School of 499 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: Oriental and African Studies the University of London. Thanks for 500 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to 501 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 502 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before the podcast, you 503 00:30:52,520 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio