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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the bloom Big Day BAQ podcast, available every

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Speaker 2: morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the eleventh of March in London. I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Market optimism over Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump evaporates as US stocks suffer their worst day of

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Speaker 1: the year.

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Speaker 2: American and Ukrainian officials hold crunch talks in Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 2: over the parameters for any cease far with Russia.

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Speaker 1: Plus keep setting that early alarm, the UK Statistics Office

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Speaker 1: ops to continue releasing economic data at seven am.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: A global stock route has begun to show some signs

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Speaker 1: of easing following a sharp selloff on Wall Street as

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Speaker 1: investors tempered their bullish views on the US economy. US

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Speaker 1: and European stock futures are pointing slightly higher ahead of

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Speaker 1: the cash trade today. That's after we saw the and

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Speaker 1: P five hundred dropping by two point seven percent on Monday,

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Speaker 1: the Nastak one hundred last three point eight percent, and

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Speaker 1: Tesla shares sank by fifteen percent. Amy W. Silverman equity

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Speaker 1: derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets says there could be

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Speaker 1: more losses to come.

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Speaker 4: So far it's been relatively orderly, but there's only so

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Speaker 4: many times you can say that as we go one, two,

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Speaker 4: three standard deviations off in terms of drawdown, there is

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Speaker 4: going to be a period where I think it's going

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Speaker 4: to be panic at the disco. We haven't gotten there yet,

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Speaker 4: but you know, as these levels climb there will be

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Speaker 4: ulines and more uncertainty that triggers even more amy.

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Speaker 1: With Silverman speaking, there is the latest moves market abrupt

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Speaker 1: reversal for markets after the dominant driver for more than

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Speaker 1: a decade has been the surprising resilience of the US economy,

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Speaker 1: even as growth weakened overseas well.

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Speaker 2: The increasingly bearish sentiment from traders comes as economies across

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Speaker 2: Wall Street have been raising their odds for a US

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Speaker 2: economic downturn. City Group has now joined others in downgrade

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Speaker 2: its view on US equity, citing expectations of negative US

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Speaker 2: data prints as part of its justification. Meanwhile, President Trump

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Speaker 2: refused to rule out the possibility of a recession in

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Speaker 2: an interview over the weekend, saying instead that the economy

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Speaker 2: is in quote transition. Gina Martin Adams is chief equity

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Speaker 2: strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 5: Up until this weekend, it really was about a reset

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Speaker 5: of expectations that were far too robust. I mean, this

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Speaker 5: is something we started talking about in December. Our fair

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Speaker 5: value models were detecting that inside the market, the S

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Speaker 5: and P five hundred was priced for greater than twenty

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Speaker 5: percent earnings growth to emerge this year, which is the

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Speaker 5: next two impossible task. This just doesn't happen unless you're

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Speaker 5: bouncing out at recession.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Gina Martin Adams. There.

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Speaker 2: President Trump is scheduled to meet top business executives later

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Speaker 2: today as they grapple with uncertainty about tariffs as well

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Speaker 2: as the equity market sell off.

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Speaker 1: The US Secretary of State Mark Rubio will lead a

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Speaker 1: meeting with top official from Ukraine today in Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 1: The meetings intended to help clarify what concessions might be

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Speaker 1: possible in the push toward a ceasefire with Russia following

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Speaker 1: a breakdown in relations between Washington and Kiev. The US

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Speaker 1: National Security Advisor Michael Watts, as part of the American

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Speaker 1: delegation attending the talks.

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Speaker 6: The President has been crystal clear, and he's been clear

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Speaker 6: to all sides. The fighting has to stop. Both sides

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Speaker 6: need to get to the table. But we think we're

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Speaker 6: going to get things back on track, get the ceasefire

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Speaker 6: in place, and drive peace home.

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Speaker 1: The US National Security Advisor Michael Watz, speaking there sources of,

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Speaker 1: told Bloomberg that Russia is willing to discuss a temporary

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Speaker 1: truce in Ukraine provided those progress toward a final peace

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Speaker 1: settlement wherever. There's been no public indication that Putin is

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Speaker 1: willing to compromise or that the US is pushing him

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Speaker 1: to do so.

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Speaker 2: Now, a cargo ship has crashed into an all tanker

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Speaker 2: on the UK's east coast, in the worst maritime disaster

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Speaker 2: the country has seen any years. One person is missing

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Speaker 2: and jet fuel has spilled after the container's ship so

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Speaker 2: Long collided with the Stene Immaculate in the North Sea.

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Speaker 2: Christopher Parry is a former Rear admiral and maritime risk expert.

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Speaker 2: He says many questions now need answering.

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Speaker 3: It shouldn't happen at all. Looking at the conditions.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't seem to be a visibility problem, although there

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Speaker 1: were some fog and missed around both ships.

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Speaker 2: Reign On Father Stenet Immaculate was carrying roughly two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty thousand barrels of jet fuel for the US Navy,

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Speaker 2: but it's unclear how much is spilled, with the UK

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Speaker 2: Coastguard saying an assessment is underway.

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Speaker 1: Kay Starmer has reportedly backed up the Chancellor's plans to

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Speaker 1: reform Britain's benefit system and cut costs. According to the BBC,

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister told a private meeting of his MPs

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Speaker 1: that the UK's welfare system was indefensible and unfair.

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Speaker 7: Poombroog James Wilcock has more the UK government has to

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Speaker 7: find more money. That has ruled out raising taxes or

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Speaker 7: borrowing more so what are the options. The largest big

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Speaker 7: ticket spending items in the state's budget are social security,

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Speaker 7: pensions and health. Senior figures, including the Work in Pensions

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Speaker 7: Minister As Kendall and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have started making

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Speaker 7: very similar noises to the previous Conservative government, saying the

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Speaker 7: welfare system encourages people to stay out of work and

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Speaker 7: needs reform. As of January, nine point three million people

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Speaker 7: are economically inactive but of working age, so what's not

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Speaker 7: clear now is how Prime Minister Keir Starmer commits his

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Speaker 7: backbit genps to support what some fear might be a

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Speaker 7: deeply unpopular policy with their core voters in London. James

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Speaker 7: Wilcock Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, when you see a headline about UK economic data,

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Speaker 2: it is still likely to be around seven AM London time.

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Speaker 2: After these Statistics Agency rejected calls for a change.

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Speaker 3: Binbergs Un Potts has more.

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Speaker 8: Before the pandemic, UK economic data always came out at

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Speaker 8: nine thirty AM, a civilized time in the morning when

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Speaker 8: traders it has had a couple of coffees and more importantly,

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Speaker 8: the markets were open. But the Statistics Regulator says it's

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Speaker 8: accepting arguments from the ONUS the current seven am arrangements

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Speaker 8: serve the public good. The ONNESS also says its current

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Speaker 8: website would struggle with all the extra traffic from moving

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Speaker 8: the data back to nine point thirty. The regulator says

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Speaker 8: it's looking forward to reviewing the timings at a later date.

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Speaker 8: I'm ewing pots always up early for Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Those ear tap stories on the markets. It was a

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Speaker 1: tumultuous Monday for US equities. The SMP five hundred and

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Speaker 1: folloing two point seven percent than ASDAK fell three point

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Speaker 1: eight percent and it's worse session since twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: The mag seven have now erased all of their post

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Speaker 1: election gains. Tesla shares starting fifteen percent, Delta Airlines delivering

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Speaker 1: and delivering a profit warning and its stock sank by

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Speaker 1: some eleven percent and after hours trading. New European stocks

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Speaker 1: ended in the read yesterday, although futures are pointing higher today,

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Speaker 1: Eurostock's fifty features up by three tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 1: The treasury markets are seeing a continuing rally. We're looking

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Speaker 1: at the ten year treasury yield down three basis points

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Speaker 1: this morning to four point one eight percent. In Asian equities,

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Speaker 1: the selloff continuing their mascish pacifica in dexten one point

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Speaker 1: two percent.

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Speaker 3: In a moment, we will bring you more on the market.

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Speaker 2: Jitters over the US economy, plus today's talks between American

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Speaker 2: and Ukrainian officials on a potential ceasepar with Russia. But

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Speaker 2: another school story called our I this morning. You remember

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Speaker 2: those images from Donald Trump's inauguration. Of course it was

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Speaker 2: held inside and there were some of the world's richest

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Speaker 2: people standing right behind the president at that point. New

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Speaker 2: figures Wan plom Both Billionaires Index show what has happened

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Speaker 2: in the intervening days.

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Speaker 3: Weeks, it's barely been a few weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, I mean five of those billionaires who were

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Speaker 1: standing behind Donald Trump have now last combined two hundred

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Speaker 1: and nine billion dollars in wealth since the inauguration. The

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Speaker 1: period between Donald Trump's election and his inauguration was a

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Speaker 1: boon for the world's wealthiest. The S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred day setting several all time highs, so that helped

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Speaker 1: to boost the networth of some of those richest people

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Speaker 1: on the planet. But the numbers are pretty astonishing about

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Speaker 1: what's happened since market sentiment has soured. Elon Musk the

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Speaker 1: worst hit, down one hundred and forty eight billion dollars

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Speaker 1: since the close of trading on January seventeenth, the day

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Speaker 1: before the inauguration.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Amazon's founder Jeff Bezos is down twenty nine billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: The Google co founder Sergey Brin is twenty two billion

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Speaker 2: dollars worse off. Mark Zuckerberg LVMH boss bound now alnor

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Speaker 2: have both lost five billion dollars each. Look, I think

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Speaker 2: it's very interesting. We shall see whether actually inauguration day

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Speaker 2: was the high watermark for the benefits for those billionaires

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Speaker 2: and the companies of course that they founded. There was

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Speaker 2: such optimism after Trump was elected. In that period before

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Speaker 2: the inauguration, there was a real kind of high that

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Speaker 2: maybe the policies would be very beneficial to those firms.

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Speaker 2: Maybe now the reality is sort of checking some of that.

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Speaker 2: But it's interesting that Musk and Tesla is the one

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Speaker 2: that has lost the most value.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, look, Rich goes the function on the terminal if

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Speaker 1: you want to get the latest figures on all of that.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk though about the souring sentiment on market that's

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Speaker 1: contributed to that drop on the fortunes of those people,

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Speaker 1: but also some of the world's biggest companies. Our market's

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Speaker 1: live stratus. Ary Nicola is with us for more. Mary,

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Speaker 1: can you put in context the scale of the moves

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Speaker 1: that we've seen over the past twenty four hours, how

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Speaker 1: worried our investors about the US economy.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's clear that the investors are really struggling, and

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Speaker 9: equities as a result are bearing the brunt So if

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Speaker 9: we look at the SMP draw down that was the worst,

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Speaker 9: was worse than the August twenty twenty four shakeup, and

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Speaker 9: we all remember how dramatic that one was, and it

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Speaker 9: was tech's worst day since twenty twenty two. And then,

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Speaker 9: of course in all of this, we're seeing a strong

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Speaker 9: bid for US treasury So two year yields hit fresh

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Speaker 9: twenty twenty five low, and all that is really clearly

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Speaker 9: showing how investors are worried about the health of the

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Speaker 9: US economy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, what our investors worried about then, exactly.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: So it's interesting because the R word, the recession word,

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Speaker 9: keeps coming up now, so escalating fears of a recession.

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Speaker 9: You've got cracks in US exceptionalism, all that is coming

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Speaker 9: to the fore, and then you've also have tariff concerns

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Speaker 9: that's still linkering. And then on top of all that,

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Speaker 9: there seems to be no Trump Trump or FED put

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Speaker 9: So President Trump acknowledged that the economy is like likely

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Speaker 9: to see some short term pain as it transitions, and

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Speaker 9: then FED chair on Friday maintained a more cautious tone

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Speaker 9: when he spoke. So investors are asking where is the support,

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Speaker 9: where is it going to come from? And now markets

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Speaker 9: are looking for a fifty percent chance of a cut

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Speaker 9: in May.

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Speaker 1: On the back of all this, talk to us about

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Speaker 1: where we are today, Mary, looking at the Asian set,

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Speaker 1: now looks like the sell off taking a bit of

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Speaker 1: a pause. So it's been a rough day.

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Speaker 9: We've seen some markets manage to pair earlier losses, but overall,

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Speaker 9: I would probably say, especially that the way we're clausing

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Speaker 9: is that the sentiment overall and the underlying tone remains

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Speaker 9: quite dour. So but I think one thing is very

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Speaker 9: clear from the last few days of trading is that

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Speaker 9: volatility is here to stay.

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Speaker 2: Just lastly, in terms of President Chompy is due to

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Speaker 2: meet business leaders late to today. What do you think

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Speaker 2: he needs to convince them of. Yeah, he needs to

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Speaker 2: highlight his pro growth policies.

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Speaker 9: One of the heading into the Trump administration and after

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Speaker 9: he won, businesses were actually quite optimistic about the future,

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Speaker 9: given deregulation and what some of his policies would be

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Speaker 9: that would be favorable to businesses. But businesses are now worried.

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Speaker 9: They're now worried about the outlook of the economy. They're

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Speaker 9: worried about tariffs, and we've heard that through some of

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Speaker 9: the calls on earnings call and we've also heard their

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Speaker 9: concerns about them in the ism. So he'll need to

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Speaker 9: address these recession concerns and that his plans will need

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Speaker 9: to lead will be more limited. And it really is

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Speaker 9: a short lived adjustment period, because otherwise you could see

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Speaker 9: this spiral into something even bigger and deeper losses for

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Speaker 9: the markets.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Mary, thanks so much. Our market's live stratt is

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Speaker 1: Mary Nicola.

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Speaker 2: There. Now let's senn our attention to the US sector

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Speaker 2: of state. He says that today's meeting between America and

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Speaker 2: the Ukrainian and Ukrainian officials is intended to help clarify

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Speaker 2: what concessions might be possible in the push for a

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Speaker 2: cease far with Russia. Marco Rubio has played down the

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Speaker 2: possibility of a major breakthrough in the talks that are

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Speaker 2: taking place in Saudi Arabia. Ahead of the discussions, Ukraine

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Speaker 2: launched what seems to be the largest drone attack on

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Speaker 2: Moscow since the war began three years ago. Let's bring

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Speaker 2: in our Middle East editor Paul Wallace for more. Now,

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Paul. What are you expectations around this meeting today?

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Speaker 1: Hi, Cayline.

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Speaker 10: It is interesting that Rubio is playing down any expectation

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Speaker 10: of a big breakthrough in these meetings in Jedda, in

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Speaker 10: in Saudi Arabia. Today, it's almost as if the US

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Speaker 10: is coming around to the idea that this is an

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Speaker 10: extremely complicated conflict and it's it's not something that Donald

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Speaker 10: Trump can can end as quickly as as he perhaps

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Speaker 10: thought he could when he when he first when he

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Speaker 10: when he came back to power in in January. So

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Speaker 10: I think at the moment, as Rubio says, they're going

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Speaker 10: to sound out the Ukrainians, see what their position is,

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Speaker 10: see what they see, just what it is that they

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Speaker 10: might accept in terms of a ceasefire or or or

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Speaker 10: even a bigger peace deal with Russia, and see if

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Speaker 10: that squares with what the Russians have said to the US.

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Speaker 3: And talks so far.

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Speaker 1: Interesting to note that.

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Speaker 10: Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian President, won't be in the talks today.

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Speaker 10: It will be other Ukrainian officials sitting with Marco Rubio

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Speaker 10: and other US officials, and that is probably something to

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Speaker 10: do with the pretty explosive meeting that Zelensky had with

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Speaker 10: President Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the White

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Speaker 10: House not so long ago.

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Speaker 1: So perhaps a chance to turn the sentiment around in

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Speaker 1: that relationship. Anyway, Russian not invited to these talks. Although

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Speaker 1: Trump is sending his envoy Steve Whitcoff to Moscow, what

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Speaker 1: do we know about the Russian position and what sort

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Speaker 1: of message that Steve Wikoff will be bringing to Vladimir Potin.

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Speaker 10: So I think a lot of that will depend on

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Speaker 10: what happens today between the Ukrainians and US officials, and

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Speaker 10: Wikoff is going to take whatever has said and whatever

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Speaker 10: is just GUS two Moscow. Moscow is still very much

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Speaker 10: saying that while it's not ruling out cease far, but

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Speaker 10: it doesn't think that that's in its interest and ness.

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Speaker 10: It gets clear signs and a good sense of what

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Speaker 10: the final or longer term peace steel peace steel will

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Speaker 10: will be. It's from all the all the signals from Moscow,

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Speaker 10: from Vladimir Putin and others that Russia thinks it's in

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Speaker 10: a good position on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. It's

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Speaker 10: making advances, even though those are coming at a huge

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Speaker 10: cost in terms of in terms of casualties. So even

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Speaker 10: getting to cease fire, let alone a full on peace

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Speaker 10: steel is is proving very very complicated so far, both

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Speaker 10: the Ukrainians and Russians are not let's say, they're not

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Speaker 10: just gonna they're not going to easily accept a cease file.

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Speaker 10: That's that's what it seems like so far.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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