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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from throwing out spect I'm

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Speaker 3: saying it's a cash touchdown. We see most gambles when

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Speaker 3: they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm Jill Gallant, joined by Evan Abrams Eaton. Every week

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Speaker 3: he is our research director and media consultant here at

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. We're gonna dive into all the Sunday

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Speaker 3: NFL action for Week fifteen. Of course, as the show goes,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna have Brandon Anderson, he's gonna give us his

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Speaker 3: hot reads later in the show, and Patrick Everson from

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Speaker 3: Vegas Insider, he'll give us an update on sportsbooks and

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Speaker 3: Vegas and how they fared this NFL Sunday. But as

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Speaker 3: we do, Evan, let's start off the show looking at

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Speaker 3: Monday Night football Eagles and Seahawks. Now, this game's a

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Speaker 3: little tricky, Evan, because the Eagles right now are three

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Speaker 3: point favorites with an over under a forty five and

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Speaker 3: a half. And this line is right now at halftime

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Speaker 3: of Sunday Night Football because I bring that up because

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Speaker 3: as of halftime of Sunday Night Football, we do not know,

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Speaker 3: if one hundred percent certain, who is starting for quarterback

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Speaker 3: for the Eagles. Earlier today, Adam Schefter reported that Jalen

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Speaker 3: Hurts was downgraded to questionable due to an illness. He

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Speaker 3: is traveling to Seattle, but on a separate plane, and

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Speaker 3: so we have no word of whether or not it's

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Speaker 3: going to be Jalen Hurts or Marcus Mariota at quarterback

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Speaker 3: for the Eagles, Whereas on the Seahawks side, we do

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Speaker 3: have a little bit of clarification. Gino Smith is likely

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Speaker 3: not to play, that it will be Drew Locke at quarterback.

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Speaker 3: That was confirmed earlier on Sunday morning. But the one

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Speaker 3: thing I would say Evan looking at the spread right now,

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Speaker 3: is it was Eagles minus four, and then this news

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Speaker 3: came out, it went down to three and a half,

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Speaker 3: and now it's down to three. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 3: sportsbooks know for certain if whether or not he's going

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Speaker 3: to play, that's Jalen Hurts, And to be honest, man,

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Speaker 3: it's kind of a shit show for the NFL because

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Speaker 3: they flexed this game out from Sunday to Monday Night

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Speaker 3: Football because they had Chiefs Patriots set up for this

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Speaker 3: Monday Night. And now we're staring into the abyss of

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Speaker 3: Drew Locke and potentially Marcus Mariota.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Chiefs Patriots wasn't exactly the best game I've

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Speaker 2: ever seen.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a worthy substitution.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, is what it is. I

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Speaker 2: think at this point the spread hasn't done too much adjusting.

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Speaker 2: You've seen three and a half's go to three. It's

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Speaker 2: only been the total really forty seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: forty seven down to forty five. I think they're just

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Speaker 2: bracing for the fact that it's Locke and Mariota, to

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Speaker 2: be honest with you, just because we're getting so close

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Speaker 2: and they're getting you the extra day, and we're getting

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Speaker 2: news that it's possible he's not playing, and you usually

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Speaker 2: wouldn't get that if Hurts was gonna start and everything

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Speaker 2: felt like it was heading in the right direction. Probably

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Speaker 2: worth noting just you know where these quarterbacks are in

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Speaker 2: terms of Mariota and lock. So, Mariota has struggled pretty

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Speaker 2: bad recently, on the road. His last four road starts

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Speaker 2: scored thirteen fifteen, seventeen fifteen, it's not great, and fifteen

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Speaker 2: and twenty five straight up road neutral in his career.

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Speaker 2: No season above five hundred. So if it is Mariota,

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Speaker 2: it's just gonna be very elementary, and that's probably what

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Speaker 2: you see in the line. I don't know how you

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Speaker 2: bet this game if it's Lock Mariota, aside from the under,

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Speaker 2: because I just don't know if I'm gonna be able

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Speaker 2: to pick a side ats wise in terms of touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: which I know is your specialty, Sure got it. I

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Speaker 2: don't know, like maybe something of that nature if it's

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Speaker 2: some backups and Mariota is gonna be looking for a blanket.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Single offense right now for the Eagles is really hard

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Speaker 3: to project with Marcus Mariota instead of Jalen Hurts because

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Speaker 3: he was so bad last year near the end he

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Speaker 3: basically got kicked out of Atlanta and released for Desmond Ritter,

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Speaker 3: who I think as a bottom five quarterback in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: But in a spots start, especially if you think of

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Speaker 3: like Week one when they played the Saints last year,

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Speaker 3: the Falcons, then they came out and surprised them. They

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Speaker 3: didn't win the game, but Mariota looked competent in.

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Speaker 4: That kind of game.

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Speaker 3: I feel like a spots start, he could probably give

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Speaker 3: you seventy to seventy five percent of what Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 3: can give you. But I think if you're gonna be

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Speaker 3: betting the Seahawks and you were already feeling the Seahawks,

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Speaker 3: you have to bet them now because if Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 3: is getting ruled out and it's Mariota, that line is

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Speaker 3: going to shift into Seahawks favor It's gonna probably drop

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Speaker 3: to two and a half, maybe to one. But if

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Speaker 3: you are wanting to take the Eagles, I think you

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Speaker 3: probably just waited out. I don't know if it's really

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Speaker 3: gonna move past four, for example, past another key number

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Speaker 3: with Hurts ruled in, But if it's Mariota, I can't

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Speaker 3: imagine it'll drop that much more where you're not getting

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Speaker 3: a better number. But again, that's Eagles defense. This has

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Speaker 3: nothing to do with the offense, but offensively and defensively,

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Speaker 3: they've been out gained in seven straight games now offensively,

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Speaker 3: so I can't imagine Marcus Mariota as all of a

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Speaker 3: sudden going to rejuvenate this passing offense also from a

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Speaker 3: defensive standpoint. Just a funny thing too, Evan Matt Patricia.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if you saw that he's going to

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Speaker 3: be calling the defense for the Eagles now after his

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Speaker 3: last stint of I believe calling the offense for the Patriots,

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Speaker 3: after a stint of coaching the Lions where he was

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Speaker 3: basically showing the door. But from a touchdown scorer perspective,

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Speaker 3: I like Jackson Smith and Jingba in this game, slot

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Speaker 3: receiver he's playing over seventy percent of snaps. The Eagles

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Speaker 3: are bottom three in the NFL and touchdowns allowed to

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Speaker 3: the slot. They've also given up the most touchdowns to

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Speaker 3: wide receivers in the NFL with twenty three. And we

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Speaker 3: talked about this last week when they were playing the Niners.

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Speaker 3: Drew Locke. He didn't look horrible last week versus the Niners.

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Speaker 3: And that's saying I have to come a long way

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Speaker 3: to say that he threw the ball a lot in

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Speaker 3: games with a trailing game script. DK Metcalf look good

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Speaker 3: in that game. No Darius Slay as well in this game.

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Speaker 3: So that's going to be a matchup now that DK

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Speaker 3: Metcalf I believe can exploit if he's going to be

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Speaker 3: matched up. Who says, somebody like James Bradberry, But he's

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Speaker 3: only around plus one eighty five, So I think Jackson

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Speaker 3: Smith and Jigba will be who I would look at

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Speaker 3: at plus two to eighty. I would also say Jalen

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Speaker 3: Hurts for an interception around plus one thirty five plus

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Speaker 3: one forties enticing as well, especially if he is playing

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Speaker 3: with that illness. Ten picks this year, seven of those

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Speaker 3: I t's have been on the road. He only had

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Speaker 3: six picks last year, so I think the turnover probability

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Speaker 3: is high, especially with Jalen in the spot, you know,

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Speaker 3: especially facing an upcoming secondary on the road in one

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Speaker 3: of the loudest environments as well in the NFL at Bluemanfield.

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Speaker 3: So that's Monday Night football. But now let's move to Sunday.

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Speaker 3: Kind of a mixed bag kind of day. I would

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Speaker 3: call it a melancholy week. Favorites they go eleven and

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Speaker 3: three straight up nine three and two against the spread.

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Speaker 3: Favorites again continue to crush, but the home teams go

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Speaker 3: ten and four straight up, nine and three and two

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Speaker 3: against the spread. Other than that, that was probably the

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Speaker 3: biggest takeaways from the overall trends of week fifteen. Was

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Speaker 3: there anything else I'm missing here? Evan?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned it. With favorites eighty three thirty three

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Speaker 2: straight up sixty one fifty and five, which is fifty

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Speaker 2: five percent since week eight, so a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a run. And aside from that one week that underdogs

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Speaker 2: went over five hundred straight up, it's been pretty good

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Speaker 2: for favorites straight up that I've been winning, you know,

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Speaker 2: doing the good job. Overall public today's six six and two,

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Speaker 2: so basically a five hundred week. I think the one

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Speaker 2: thing that's interesting is you look at the standings and

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Speaker 2: again just AFC domination, yet nine teams above five hundred,

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Speaker 2: and in the NFC there is only four. So that's

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Speaker 2: pretty much a story right now going into the next week.

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Speaker 3: Well, and the favorites and the homes trend that really

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Speaker 3: relayed to the Bills today because the Bills were home

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Speaker 3: favorites two point home favorites over the Cowboys, probably their

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Speaker 3: most dominant win of the year, thirty one to ten

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Speaker 3: over the Cowboys. The total goes under though of forty nine. Honestly,

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Speaker 3: I haven't just the biggest takeaway from this game is the

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Speaker 3: Bills and they're a cent now back up into this

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Speaker 3: AFC playoff picture where I think everybody was writing them

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Speaker 3: off after that Eagles loss. The NFL is just such

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Speaker 3: a week to week league as far as the narratives

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Speaker 3: are concerned. But now they're eight and six with the Chargers, Patriots,

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Speaker 3: and Dolphins on the horizon, where now that Week eighteen

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Speaker 3: game is starting to feel like it could be the

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Speaker 3: AFC East title game because the Dolphins got the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: and the Ravens coming up and then the Bills to

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Speaker 3: finish shit out, whereas the Bills have the Chargers and

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Speaker 3: Patriots much easier arout here. It would be not shocking

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Speaker 3: for them to go to and zero in those games

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Speaker 3: and then setting up for a finale in Week eighteen.

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Speaker 3: But for today, the big thing was is that they

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Speaker 3: just would not be denied running the ball. They crushed

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys running the ball. The rain, rainy game just

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Speaker 3: made the game to run three rushing touchdowns, three hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty rushing yards by the Bills today. That's the

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Speaker 3: most rushing yards the Cowboys allowed in any game today.

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Speaker 3: And Josh Allen he didn't really have to do much.

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Speaker 3: He only threw it fifteen times eighty five passing yards,

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Speaker 3: but no turnovers. I think that was the most important thing.

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Speaker 3: Didn't put them in a hole. I mean they doubled

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys in first downs twenty four to eighteen. They

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Speaker 3: led twenty one to three at halftime, and this just

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Speaker 3: looked like an emotional letdown for the Cowboys, who looked

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Speaker 3: like they played their Super Bowl last week and beating

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Speaker 3: the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Dallas has been pretty predictable lately. When you think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be good, they're gonna be good, and you

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna, you know, drop an egg and be bad,

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Speaker 2: they're given be bad. There hasn't been really much of

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Speaker 2: a odd game in terms of what we've expected. I

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Speaker 2: think with them, I will say a stat or to

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Speaker 2: here just to kind of bounce off of what you've said.

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Speaker 2: So Dak is now six and thirteen straight up on

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Speaker 2: the road versus over five hundred teams in his career,

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Speaker 2: So he is one hundred and fourteenth of one hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixteen quarterbacks since he was drafted in that stat.

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Speaker 2: They are zero to three straight up in that stat

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Speaker 2: this season. So they just don't show up in those

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Speaker 2: outdoor against good team, which I'm gonna call Buffalo good.

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Speaker 2: They're one game Buffet and they're also Buffalo, so kind

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Speaker 2: of prove that again. Listen, Dallas had the fewest pass

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Speaker 2: yards as a team for thirty plus pass attempts since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and eight. For them, it's been a long

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Speaker 2: time since they looked this bad while trying to pass

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Speaker 2: the ball, so really difficult. A few more so Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen interception streak over that it took this game. It

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Speaker 2: was nine games straight with an interception for him, finally done. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean that's really the difficult one night. Looking forward,

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Speaker 2: and you said it, Buffalo is going to be a

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Speaker 2: fourteen point favorite against the Chargers. They're going to be

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Speaker 2: probably ten, twelve thirteen against New England, so they're going

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Speaker 2: to go to and oh, they're going to be two

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Speaker 2: and oh going into that Miami game. So it's you know,

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Speaker 2: they were fifty to one to win the Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: just a few weeks ago. A lot of people took

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Speaker 2: them it was a good opportunity and they've shown up since.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think the Cowboys to another thing, not

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Speaker 3: that it would really make them maybe pull the reins

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Speaker 3: back a little bit, but with the win the Panthers

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Speaker 3: win today, we're going to talk about that Panthers win

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Speaker 3: over the Falcons. But with that Panthers win that actually

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Speaker 3: clinched a playoff spot for the Cowboys. Today, they're likely

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Speaker 3: going to get that first wild card spot, which will

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Speaker 3: set them up with a first round playoff spot facing

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Speaker 3: the NFC South winner, likely which is probably going to

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Speaker 3: be the Buccaneers. We might see a first round rematch again,

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Speaker 3: but again, a team that is now five hundred and above.

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Speaker 3: Should be interesting to see whether that DAC trend plays

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Speaker 3: out if the Bucks kind of continue to look as

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Speaker 3: solid as they did. We'll talk about that Bucks Packers

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Speaker 3: game in a little bit. Let's move over to Bears Browns.

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Speaker 3: Browns win twenty to seventeen and the Browns is two

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Speaker 3: and a half point home favorites do cover, but the

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Speaker 3: total does go under a thirty seven and a half

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Speaker 3: and they come back to win. Joe Flacco down thirteen

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Speaker 3: going into the fourth quarter, and I gotta tell you, Evan,

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Speaker 3: when you have that strong of a defense, you can

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Speaker 3: throw three interceptions and still be within reach to be

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Speaker 3: able to win the game. Because again another multi touchdown

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Speaker 3: game of passing.

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Speaker 4: For Joe Flacco.

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Speaker 3: He has three of them already in three starts, even

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Speaker 3: though he did have three interceptions today a huge late rally,

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Speaker 3: But this was a defensive battle, really a mess of

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Speaker 3: a game. I honestly thought the Bears defense up until

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Speaker 3: that final drive played fairly well. I mean, they got

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Speaker 3: a pick six on Flacco again, the three interceptions. They

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Speaker 3: completely shut down the Browns run game as well. Jerome

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Speaker 3: Ford and Kareem Hunt couldn't really do anything today. But

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Speaker 3: I think the one thing this was almost like a

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Speaker 3: double whammy for the Bears today because you're always going

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Speaker 3: to try to contending about how Justin Fields is your

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Speaker 3: quarterback of the future. He did not look good today.

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Speaker 3: I believe he was sixteen for forty throwing the ball,

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Speaker 3: and with that Panthers win. Now, that's kind of putting

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Speaker 3: them maybe a little bit more in danger of missing

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Speaker 3: out on potentially drafting Caleb Williams. So just something a

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Speaker 3: little bit of a double whammy here for the Bears.

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Speaker 3: But for the Browns perspective, here's where their schedules at.

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Speaker 3: They're nine to five. Now, they've got the first wildcard

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Speaker 3: spot in the AFC, and they've got Houston coming up.

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Speaker 3: Houston is eight and six, they're gonna that's basically I

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Speaker 3: think gonna be for Houston a win or go home

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Speaker 3: kind of outcome, and then the Jets in Sincy to

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Speaker 3: round out the years. So I think the Browns, if anything,

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Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see at least ten to eleven

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Speaker 3: wins from this team. But I think there's still a

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Speaker 3: little too far to be able to catch the Ravens here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously, if the Jaguars were to win tonight,

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Speaker 3: maybe that might be able to change their fortunes. But

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Speaker 3: from a front AFC standpoint, I think the Browns are

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Speaker 3: fairly solid, especially with that defense and now with Joe

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Speaker 3: Flacco apparently can move the ball better than anything that

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Speaker 3: we saw from Deshaun Watson, PJ. Walker and Dorian Thompson Robinson.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move to Bucks Packers. Probably my favorite

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Speaker 3: game of the day, just as far as watching offensive outputs.

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Speaker 3: But the Bucks win thirty four to twenty, and the

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Speaker 3: Packers lose as home favorites three and a half point

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Speaker 3: home favorites, and the total forty one and a half

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Speaker 3: does go over. The Bucks continue to win and Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 3: We talked about this last week. Evan man, he looked

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Speaker 3: pretty good today, like I did, Like I was kind

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Speaker 3: of on the fence of like, oh, should I come

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Speaker 3: around now? He did that against the Falcons, but again

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Speaker 3: going on the road to do that lambeau Field. Three

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Speaker 3: hundred and eighty one passing yards and four touchdowns, and

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Speaker 3: I mean he was hanging in there. He took some

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Speaker 3: hard hits he I mean, the Packers got after him.

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Speaker 3: He was sacked five times today, but they would scored

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Speaker 3: the pack twenty one to ten in the second half.

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Speaker 3: On the I thought this was a solid competent win

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Speaker 3: for the first time that I've seen from an nfc

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Speaker 3: SO team all year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, coming off of the roller coaster. We just discussed

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Speaker 2: with Cleveland where they've had four quarterbacks win them a

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Speaker 2: game this year and they can't find the guy after

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Speaker 2: giving DeShawn a trillion dollars. Now you go into Baker,

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Speaker 2: the guy that got rid of, who literally just had

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Speaker 2: the best game ever played by an opposing quarterback at

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Speaker 2: lambeau Field. Nobody's ever had a perfect passer rating. Baker

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Speaker 2: did four touchdowns, zero picks, three hundred and eighty yards.

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Speaker 2: It's the best career game for him ever, He's never

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Speaker 2: done all three of those numbers. So a wild turn

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Speaker 2: of events. And then you kind of just look at

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Speaker 2: the Bucks season seven and one against the spread on

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Speaker 2: the road, best team in the NFL. They've continued to

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Speaker 2: show up away from home and score a ton of points.

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Speaker 2: I think we've actually talked about this before, but let's

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Speaker 2: just bet Evans and Godwin to score a touchdown and

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Speaker 2: used to just find its way to the end zone

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Speaker 2: every single week. This week, yeah, and then this week

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Speaker 2: Godwin doesn't get there, but he has one hundred yards

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Speaker 2: in the first like eighteen minutes. So Bucks continue to surprise.

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Speaker 2: They continue to win games, flying over their win total.

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Speaker 2: Now so they cash that and now at home against

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville and home against New Orleans and at Carolina, the

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Speaker 2: driver's seat for Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield, it's right

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Speaker 2: in front of him. So just a crazy turn of events,

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Speaker 2: and you kind of look at it from Green Bay

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Speaker 2: just for a quick second. Five and six straight up

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Speaker 2: his favorites last year, now one and two straight up

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Speaker 2: his favorites this year. It's just it's a different game,

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Speaker 2: it's a different team. I'm not sure they deserve that

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Speaker 2: type of having to lay points, respect at least not yet.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they've been amazing, right, the targets, the receivers,

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Speaker 2: the whole deal, the rookies. I mean, everything is just

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Speaker 2: over expectations. But this was probably a Pickham game where

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Speaker 2: you're getting free points with Tampa.

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Speaker 3: Sure. Yeah, and I think the Packers too looking the

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Speaker 3: rest of their schedule because they do have a nice

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Speaker 3: little get right against the Panthers. Look, yes, they did

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Speaker 3: beat the Falcons today, but let's not pretend like people

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Speaker 3: aren't circling the circle and the Panthers on their schedule

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Speaker 3: being like we got to get a whip, yeah, to

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Speaker 3: go to it oh here, and then of course the

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Speaker 3: Vikings and the Bears to runt out the year for

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Speaker 3: the NFC South or the NFC North rather, but no

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Speaker 3: teams above five hundred that they're playing. But at the

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Speaker 3: same time, they basically got to go three and ohero

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Speaker 3: to probably make the playoffs, and nine to eight months

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Speaker 3: still might not get you there in the NFC, depending

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Speaker 3: on how the rest of that plays out with the

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Speaker 3: teams like the Rams or even the Vikings. As we go,

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Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM used

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00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,879
Speaker 3: bonus code action when signing up to get up to

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Speaker 3: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 3: Gambling problem called what eight hundred gambler? All right, now,

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Speaker 3: it's time for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon,

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Speaker 3: what do you have us looking for for early Week

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Speaker 3: sixteen lines?

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Speaker 2: Hot Rap seventy on ice rights, ice cream lot A

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Speaker 2: right arm nineteen seven nineteen HOOI.

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Speaker 4: Bill soul right hot.

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Speaker 5: All Right, Week sixteen Hot Reed. We are zero and

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Speaker 5: one on the Hot Read this week the ugliest grossest

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Speaker 5: Thursday Night under the year sixty three twenty one waiting

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Speaker 5: on Sunday Night, but so far for the season seventeen

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Speaker 5: nine and one on the season for the Hot Read

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Speaker 5: sixty one percent. We're gonna start out right in on

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Speaker 5: Thursday night. This is a pick I gave out on

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Speaker 5: the look Ahead on Friday on the Best Bets episode

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Speaker 5: of the podcast.

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Speaker 4: I'm going back to it. I'm loving it.

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Speaker 5: I'm doubling down on the Los Angeles Rams minus three

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Speaker 5: and a half against the Saints in LA. This line

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Speaker 5: has not moved, and I certainly think it should have

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Speaker 5: by now think it will. The Rams on Sunday they

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Speaker 5: go up twenty ninthing on Washington. They basically coasted Washington,

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Speaker 5: kind of closed the gap in garbage time, but never

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Speaker 5: really competed. LA had one hundred and forty eight more

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Speaker 5: yards really should have been more than that until the

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Speaker 5: end of the game. The Saints look like they did

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Speaker 5: the same thing. Twenty four to six over the Giants,

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Speaker 5: twenty eight six over the Panthers last week, really really

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Speaker 5: unimpressive games when you take into the numbers. They only

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Speaker 5: had five hundred and three yards of offense combined against

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Speaker 5: the Giants and Panthers in those games. Two terrible teams.

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Speaker 4: Really, they're just.

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Speaker 5: Playing awful offenses, and they've been getting by on that.

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Speaker 5: These teams are basically being counted as equals by the spread,

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Speaker 5: and I don't see it now. They're both sound and seven.

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Speaker 5: They're tied in the wildcard race. Into the weekend, the

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Speaker 5: Rams were seventeenth DVA the Saints were twenty first. So

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Speaker 5: on that note, this line kind of looks right, but

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Speaker 5: these teams are going to opposite direction. Despite these recent

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Speaker 5: Saints whims last five games before Sunday, Rams were a

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Speaker 5: top ten team by DVAWAY. They're the number two offense

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Speaker 5: in the NFL, behind only the unstoppable forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 5: and the defense really has even been improving around the

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Speaker 5: league average. Same stretch, the Saints are thirtieth in DVOA.

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Speaker 5: Their offense is still bottom ten, has been all season.

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Speaker 5: The defense has been dropped to thirtieth. Now that's gonna

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Speaker 5: get a little better, of course, after holding the Giants

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Speaker 5: to six points, but not necessarily a lot. The Giants

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Speaker 5: are a terrible offense, one of the worst in the league.

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Speaker 5: You're supposed to hold them to six points. Saints are

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Speaker 5: injured up and down the roster, lots of key injuries.

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Speaker 3: There.

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Speaker 5: Short week, we only have four days here and after

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Speaker 5: this game. For the Saints, they play the Buccaneers in

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Speaker 5: Week seventeen. That's the team they're tied.

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Speaker 4: With in the division.

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Speaker 5: This is a sort of game where you might rest

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Speaker 5: a couple guys. You need that Bucks game. You have

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Speaker 5: to win that as the Saints. This one's not quite

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Speaker 5: as big big deal. It's nice if you get it.

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Speaker 5: You gotta have that Bucks game. So I like that

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Speaker 5: Angle four as well. Saints are good running the ball,

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Speaker 5: that's their one real strength. But the Rams run defense

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Speaker 5: has been better. Saints run defense is terrible lately. Kiren

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Speaker 5: Williams I think will shred them. And of course, you

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Speaker 5: know we love to fade Dennis Allen always, especially on

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Speaker 5: a short week, especially against Sean McVay, an elite head

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Speaker 5: coach five and two ats on a super short week

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Speaker 5: like this, these teams all are not equals. Give me

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Speaker 5: the Rams all day, Rams minus three and a half

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Speaker 5: against the Saints on Thursday night, and then let's get

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Speaker 5: the very next game on the schedule Saturday, Saturday afternoon,

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Speaker 5: two teams that played this Saturday. Give me the raw

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Speaker 5: raw Mike Tomlin Steelers at home plus two and a

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Speaker 5: half underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 4: This is a bullseye on the raw rod trend. We'll

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Speaker 4: get to that in a second. Look. It's ugly in Pittsburgh.

432
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,120
Speaker 5: Steelers have lost three in a row against the Cardinals,

433
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 5: the Patriots, the Colts. They're really not even competitive in

434
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 5: these games. Playoff hopes around life is the five hundred

435
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 5: streak and Jeopardy, how can you bet the Steelers? This

436
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 5: is exactly when you bet the Steelers. This is what

437
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 5: the Tomlin Steelers have been four years now. So first,

438
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 5: with the matchup, there is a chasm in between these defenses.

439
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 5: And I know Pittsburgh didn't look the part this weekend,

440
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 5: but Cincinnati they are terrible, terrible defending the run and

441
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 5: they're really bad defending the middle of the field passing.

442
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 5: We saw Minnesota exploit both of those things. Ty Chandler

443
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 5: had a huge game.

444
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 3: TJ.

445
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 5: Hockinson had a big game along with their other tight ends.

446
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 5: I think Pat Fryarmouth for the Steelers will have a

447
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 5: big game here. The Steelers have been a top five

448
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 5: run offense the last six games. They put Broderck Jones

449
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 5: on the line, the rookie. They've been really doing well

450
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 5: running the football. I think they're gonna run the ball

451
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 5: well here. I think they're gonna go to Friremuth. And

452
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 5: that's really Steelers football. That's what the Steelers have been

453
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 5: doing well, and it matches up perfectly with what the

454
00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 5: Bengals don't do well last five games. Cincinnati's defense that's

455
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 5: thirty first overall by DVOA, including thirtieth against the past,

456
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 5: and they've been terrible against the run all year. Another thing,

457
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 5: the injuries. Cincinnati just lost DJ Reader for the season.

458
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 5: That is a big loss on the line, especially as

459
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 5: bad as that line has been. Anyway, Jamar Chase, we

460
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 5: don't know if he'll be ready to go. He was

461
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 5: limited at the end of that game Saturday. Meanwhile, we

462
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 5: might get Kenny Pickett here. I certainly would like Kenny Pickett,

463
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 5: please and thank you. I do not enjoy Mitchell Trubisky,

464
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 5: but you know we're playing it either way, so I

465
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 5: will take it. But great if we get Picket here.

466
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 5: Even better if Jamar Chase ends up limited or out.

467
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 5: And you know the trends, the raw raw Tomlin trends.

468
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 5: Let me give you the numbers week five forward as

469
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 5: an underdog for his career, Mike Tomlin forty four twenty

470
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 5: and one ats sixty nine percent. Very nice cover rate.

471
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 5: But you got to use the trend right. People are saying, oh,

472
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 5: the raw RA trend is dead. Raw raw is over fire, Tomlin. No, No,

473
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 5: the ra RO trend is great. You just got to

474
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 5: use it in the right spot. Notice I said week

475
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 5: five Ford, the raw trend is not good the first

476
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 5: month of the season. Well, here's a few other spots

477
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 5: where the trend is good. Trend is better at home

478
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 5: fifteen four and one ATS seventy nine percent.

479
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 4: Guess what home game for Pittsburgh.

480
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 5: It's better in divisions games twenty one to five and

481
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 5: one raw raw ats eighty one percent.

482
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 4: Guess what we're in a division game here. It's better

483
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 4: after a.

484
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 5: Lost by seven or more nine in one ATS ninety

485
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 5: percent cover rate. Guess what they just lost by more

486
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 5: than seven. This is a bullseye. This is the exact

487
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 5: spot you want the raw RAH trend. Mike Tomlin for

488
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 5: his career against the Bengals sixty seven percent ATS and

489
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 5: few team agnostic trends go Pittsburgh's way here too, Just

490
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 5: basically a by low sell High thing here where Cincinnati

491
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 5: is the cell high. They have won a few games

492
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 5: in a row. Pittsburgh on a three game losing streak

493
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 5: sixty two percent ATS were teams like that AFC North

494
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 5: Division underdogs late in the season, that's a trend. You

495
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 5: want sixty one four percent for the underdog and then

496
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 5: just taking the team that is the desperate team that

497
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 5: needs the win, like Cincinnati forty to sixty percent win

498
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 5: rate just ahead of an opponent in week sixteen through eighteen.

499
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 5: Only thirty two percent cover rate all time in the

500
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 5: last couple of decades. So this is a spot we're

501
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 5: given Cincinnight too much credit, Jake Browning too much credit.

502
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 4: I know the Steelers look dead.

503
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 5: I will stop betting Rah rah when they pour a

504
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 5: dirt on Mike Tomlin's grave.

505
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 4: I gotta do it one more time. Ra Ra Mike Tomlin.

506
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 5: Steelers plus two and a half So week sixteen, how

507
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 5: Reid's Thursday Night Rams minus three and a half home

508
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 5: against the Saints and Saturday Raw Ra Mike Tomlin and

509
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 5: the Steelers plus two and a half home against the Bengals.

510
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 5: How Red is off next week for the holidays. Merry Christmas, everyone,

511
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 5: Let's get a couple of wins.

512
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 3: All right, thank you, Brandon, all right, Evan, Let's now

513
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 3: keep moving along here to Texans Titans, where the Texans

514
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 3: and probably win in overtime nineteen to sixteen in overtime

515
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 3: the total does go under of thirty eight, but the

516
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: Titans do not cover his three point home favorites, which

517
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 3: was very surprising because as the week went along, we

518
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 3: found out that CJ. Straud was not going to play

519
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 3: in this game, and we saw case Keenum with Stroud

520
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 3: and concussion protocol, and I'll be honest of mean man,

521
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 3: I thought it was gonna be a disaster, and it

522
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 3: kind of was until about six minutes left in the

523
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 3: fourth quarter because Keenum, you know, he just was not

524
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 3: being efficient on third down. They had to pick six,

525
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: put them really in a hole. I thought Devin Singletary

526
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 3: really carried them in the second half, especially against the

527
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: Titans defense that is normally very strong against the run.

528
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 3: Twenty three carries one hundred and twenty yards. But in overtime,

529
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 3: not that we'll be looking at the Titans going forward,

530
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 3: i whether or not they're going to make the playoffs

531
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 3: or division, but just from a game to game standpoint,

532
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 3: Will Levis went down with a little bit of a

533
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 3: leg injury as well in overtime, so that'll be something

534
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 3: to monitor as we go into next week. But the Texans, Now,

535
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 3: the one thing I'll just say about the Texans if

536
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 3: I'm Demiko Ryans and I'm submitting my candidacy for Coach

537
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 3: of the Year this game, I have it right at

538
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 3: the top of the list.

539
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: This was a surprising performance. I liked Tennessee in this one.

540
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: I felt like this was the get right spot. I

541
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: found a stat prior to Our Favorites podcast recording last

542
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: week that I feel like I had to double take

543
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: Simon didn't believe and now just extended to the fact

544
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: that the Titans have lost seven straight games against AFC

545
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 2: South opponents, not something I think I would have believed.

546
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 2: But the struggle is real, and they really blew it

547
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 2: in this one because they were up, they were controlling,

548
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: and they kind of just let it all slip away.

549
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 2: Tennessee just can't run the ball. There's a problem with

550
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: Derek Henry. He's getting older, but you just look. They

551
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 2: were thirteen to thirty four first half, seventeen to thirty

552
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: two second half. It just almost feels impossible. But listen,

553
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 2: but Dimico Ryans has done and even now without Stroud

554
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 2: and listen. October thirteenth, twenty nineteen. The significant of that

555
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 2: date was Keenan's last road win, and during today it's

556
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: been five years since that guy won a road game,

557
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: and coming from behind is just a very impressive performance.

558
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: And now Houston hopefully gets Stroud back and he gets

559
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 2: through protocol. They got two home games Cleveland and Tennessee again,

560
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: and then they got to go to the Colts. So Houston,

561
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:26,719
Speaker 2: it's all in front of them after this, just come

562
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 2: from behind, when this when they just shouldn't have had

563
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 2: to be honest.

564
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 3: Well, and one thing I was going to say too, Evan,

565
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 3: is with the Texans, big log jam right now for

566
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 3: the wildcard spots in the AFC, and you have the Texans, Colts, Bills,

567
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 3: Bengals all at eight and six, with the Browns ahead

568
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 3: of them now at nine and five, and at this rate,

569
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 3: I'll be honest, Evan, I feel like there's going to

570
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 3: be a ten and seventeam that ends up getting squeezed

571
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 3: out of the playoffs right now. And I kind of

572
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 3: thought at the start of the year and maybe even

573
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 3: halfway through, that ten and seven was gonna be the

574
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: barrier for entry in the AFC playoff picture, at least

575
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 3: to get that seven seed. And I think now there

576
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 3: could be a ten and seven team that ends up

577
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 3: getting squeezed out. I don't know which team it's gonna be.

578
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 3: You would probably pick the Colts, knowing how I know

579
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 3: how you feel about Gardner Minshew and that team. But

580
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 3: we both feel pretty good about where the Bills stand

581
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 3: right now. So the Bengals, again, we'll talk about the

582
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,719
Speaker 3: Saturday games quickly a little bit later, but the Bengals

583
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: know another win. With Jake Browning now at eight and six,

584
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 3: it's gonna be really tight there. It's gonna be a

585
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: really fun race down the stretch. But that's kind of

586
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 3: why I thought to myself, if the Texans play the

587
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 3: Browns here, that might be if you don't win that

588
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: game from a Houston perspective, that might be your playoff

589
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 3: season gone, because just with the way the margin for

590
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: error is so small now with all of these teams.

591
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 3: So we'll see how it goes. But again, Texan's are

592
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 3: gonna be hosting the Browns here coming up, and with

593
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 3: how CJ. Stroud throws the ball, playing against a pass

594
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 3: defense that was just incredible today, stopping the passing offense

595
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 3: from the Bears should be very interesting to see how

596
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 3: they match up and if he's able to find any

597
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 3: ways to exploit it. But let's move now to Chiefs Patriots.

598
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,719
Speaker 3: Chiefs went twenty seven to seventeen. This game was flexed

599
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: out of Monday Night Football and for good reason. And

600
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, as eight and a half point road favorites,

601
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: do win and cover and the total does go over

602
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 3: of thirty nine and a half. Now, I'm still not

603
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: really that encouraged by the win. I'll be honest with you, Evan.

604
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 3: I mean, two interceptions today for Patrick Mahomes. He's now

605
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 3: tied for the most interceptions in a season for his career,

606
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: and he still has three games to go. And what's

607
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 3: funny is because the Patriots are so bad the two interceptions,

608
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: it didn't even matter because the Chiefs were still able

609
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 3: to just move the ball as they wish put up points.

610
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: They got touchdowns from Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards Hilaire.

611
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 3: But you could tell that they really missed Isaiah Pacheco

612
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 3: as well, because they only had seventeen total carries for

613
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 3: forty three yards. They didn't really do Mahomes no favors.

614
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: But I think this is another thing too, Evan, and

615
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: I feel like it might be like grounds for termination

616
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 3: to slander Bailey's appy on this podcast, but he's just

617
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 3: not it for an NFL starter. Like I'm sure he

618
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 3: had and won people a lot of money at this

619
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: company when he was at Western Kentucky. But like today,

620
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 3: first half, seventeen for nineteen, one hundred and fifty yards

621
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 3: on touchdown.

622
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 4: Not bad.

623
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 3: That's exactly my notes that I wrote down at halftime.

624
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 3: We start the second half, he immediately throws an interception,

625
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 3: Chiefs immediately score right after the turnover. He goes the

626
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 3: rest of the way six for twelve, passing for thirty yards.

627
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 3: They did cut it to ten with eight minutes to go,

628
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 3: but you knew it didn't even matter. And now the

629
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 3: Chiefs they're nine to five. They got the Raiders, Bengals

630
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 3: and Chargers to wrap up the year. But even if

631
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 3: they go three and zero, I don't really think there's

632
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 3: a path at this stage for them to get a

633
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: one seat. So we're likely going to see the Chiefs.

634
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 3: They might they'll still probably host a playoff game, but

635
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 3: if we get to the second round, we might be

636
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 3: seeing a rogue playoff game for the Chiefs this year

637
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 3: for the first time. I think we will in the

638
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:06,479
Speaker 3: Mahomes era.

639
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: Rather, I think we will. I mean, looking at it

640
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 2: from Casey's point of view, this is a lose lose.

641
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: There was nothing that I think could have been gained

642
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: by them playing in New England today, because you know,

643
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 2: winning thirty to nothing almost wouldn't have proved anything just

644
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: based off of what New England is week to week

645
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: and what they are now. The fact that this game

646
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 2: was close and Mahomes you know, had his ups and

647
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 2: downs and you know, it wasn't completely solidified until maybe later,

648
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 2: it just made me question Casey even more. Obviously from

649
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 2: a you know, game perspective. We had Darius Tony with

650
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 2: a fumbled interception, which hilarious. I think it's pretty clear

651
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 2: looking at Rashie Rice nine targets, nine receptions, he's mahomes

652
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 2: favorite guy. He's the guy probably he trusts, probably behind

653
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 2: Kelsey at the moment. He's just getting a lot of looks,

654
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: So I thought that was interesting. Even looking at mahomes

655
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 2: chart though today, which I glanced at before the pod

656
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 2: thirty seven pass attempts, a ton of them were ten

657
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 2: yards and in like he was just dinking and dunking

658
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: and trying to find spots. But obviously there's just a

659
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 2: lack of faith in his receivers and his targets in

660
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: the downfield stuff, which I just think impacts the team overall.

661
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 2: Defense is great, we know that, but didn't really change

662
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 2: much for me today.

663
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 3: No, And I think that's the thing. We know what

664
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are, we know how their limitations. At this stage,

665
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: You're not really going to take a lot from them

666
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: being the crap out of a two and twelve Patriots

667
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 3: team right at this stage, a team that's probably tanking

668
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 3: trying to get Drake mayor.

669
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 4: I like this though.

670
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 2: So Casey wins out, they go over their win total,

671
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: which is fun. So we'll see how that goes. Still

672
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 2: still in the balance. And lastly, this came into fruition today,

673
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 2: so we might as well watch it going forward. Chiefs

674
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 2: four and ten against a fourth quarter spread this season

675
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: didn't look good today. And then that is actually eighteen

676
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: and thirty six last three seasons sotruggle for them overall.

677
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: Wow.

678
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Falcons Panthers, where the

679
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 3: Panthers win in a baseball score nine to seven, and

680
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 3: the Falcons's favorites again. Evan, I feel like I've been

681
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 3: saying this now three straight weeks. The Falcons as favorites

682
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 3: lose outright. They were two and a half point favorites

683
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 3: today with the over under of thirty two and a

684
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 3: half and if you had the under, it was very

685
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 3: sweat free. But the Panthers, they do win to move

686
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 3: to two and eleven or two or twelve rather. But

687
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 3: what was insane to me that the Panthers won this

688
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 3: game like only two hundred and eighty three yards of

689
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 3: total offense. They trailed the whole game until.

690
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:40,439
Speaker 4: The final play.

691
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: And for anybody who was looking at pictures of fans

692
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 3: or it was a very rainy, messy game in Carolina,

693
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 3: but there was probably less than ten thousand fans there

694
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 3: to see it. The stands look pretty empty. And why

695
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: would you come out in a in a rain game

696
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 3: to watch your team maybe win a second game of

697
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 3: the year, but both wins with a combined twenty two

698
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 3: points and a three point combined win margin. My final

699
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 3: note about this game, though, Evan, is that I think

700
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 3: Arthur Smith is I'm running out of things to say,

701
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 3: but Arthur Smith to me is a piece of shit,

702
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: and with how he uses Jon Robinson, his running backs

703
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 3: and his staff like it is again I say this

704
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 3: roster malpractice, like you cannot have a talent like Bjeon

705
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 3: Robinson in a game where you're facing the worst run

706
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 3: defense in the NFL and you do not use him.

707
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 3: It just blew my mind. And then Desmond Ritter with

708
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 3: a late interception that essentially cost them the game. So

709
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 3: the Falcons they pretty much cost themselves the win and

710
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 3: cost themselves likely the division and maybe even a playoff

711
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 3: spot with this loss today because they're six and eight

712
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 3: now they trail both the Bucks and the Saints, who

713
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 3: are both seven and seven, and the Falcons have the Cults, Bears,

714
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 3: and Saints to round out the year.

715
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 2: It's drafting malpractice but also roster malpractice, right because you're

716
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: gonna make the draft pick, you're going to take the guy,

717
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: and then you're going to not use him the way

718
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 2: he's supposed to be used. Just don't take them and

719
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 2: take something else you needed.

720
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 3: An offensive lineman or a defense like a second like

721
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 3: a cut another cornerback like exactly.

722
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, Atlanta lost the game that they scored a

723
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 2: touchdown and the other team didn't enough set.

724
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 3: Well, let's move to the other side of the NFC

725
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 3: South with Giants, Saints Saints win twenty four to six.

726
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 3: Saints do win and cover his five and a half

727
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 3: point favorites again, back to back weeks of outright wins

728
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 3: and outright covers. It's probably pretty easy to do that

729
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 3: when you're playing the Giants and the Panthers. But the

730
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 3: total does go under a thirty nine and a half.

731
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: And we talked about this like two weeks ago when

732
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 3: we were I was bitching about how the Saints sucked,

733
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 3: but I was saying, look, they got the Panthers and

734
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 3: Giants coming up. They probably will go too to zero

735
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: in those games, and we'll be talking about them me

736
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 3: at seven and seven again. Well, they win back to

737
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 3: back games by a combined score of thirty two to twelve,

738
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 3: and it inspired zero confidence still in me for the

739
00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: Saints going forward.

740
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, struggled, and I think we could have seen this

741
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 2: going forward. I mean, entering today, he was thirty fourth

742
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,720
Speaker 2: in EPA per play, thirty eighth and average up for target,

743
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,760
Speaker 2: and today he was three of nine ten plus yards downfield.

744
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 2: He's just he's a fun story. It's a good situation.

745
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 2: But Saints defense is good and we saw it last week.

746
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: We've seen it earlier this year. We've seen it at

747
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 2: times when they don't have to face you know, really

748
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: really good quarterbacks. They're a good team. The one note,

749
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 2: the Giants just go under happens all the time. Ten

750
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 2: and four to the under this year forty four to

751
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: twenty two to the unders since twenty twenty, by far

752
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 2: the best mark in the NFL happened today. It just

753
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 2: happens when you're gonna score six points.

754
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 3: So and the Saints, they have the Rams here coming

755
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 3: up next week, both teams seven and seven. Winner will

756
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: put themselves in a much more solid position of getting

757
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 3: an NFC playoffs spot for the wildcards. So the Saints,

758
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 3: if they don't win the division again, there is still

759
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 3: an outside chance that they could make the playoffs, whether

760
00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 3: it be a wildcard. But they have two divisional games

761
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 3: to round it out after the Rams, so those will

762
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,959
Speaker 3: probably all come out in the wash as it goes

763
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 3: all right now, Jets Dolphins, Dolphins win thirty to nothing.

764
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 3: Total goes under of thirty seven because the Jets did

765
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 3: not do their part and score any points and the

766
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 3: Dolphins cover is eight point home favorites. But this game, Evan,

767
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 3: it was just a shit kicking, like it was twenty

768
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:25,399
Speaker 3: four to notzhering halftime lead. Tyreek Hill is out, didn't matter.

769
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: They missed a ton of players on defense, didn't matter.

770
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:29,919
Speaker 3: I mean when you saw the inactive list, it looked

771
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 3: like a grocery list, like as far as how many

772
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 3: guys and starters were out. But I mean Raheem Moster

773
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 3: for two touchdowns. And we talk about Christian McCaffrey and

774
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill a lot for offensive Player of the Year,

775
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 3: but steaky candidate for Offensive Player of the Year for

776
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 3: Raheem Moster given the fact that he has the same

777
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: amount of touchdowns as Christian McCaffrey now this year combined twenty.

778
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean Zach Wilson got benched again for

779
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 3: Trevor Semion. You know, he nearly got killed, I think

780
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 3: in the first half of that hit. Did you see

781
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 3: that hit that Bradley Chubb hit that he had on hit?

782
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 3: Oh my god, I thought he was dead from there.

783
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: But it was check in right. Somebody let him through.

784
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 2: It was a terrible block.

785
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. And so with the Dolphins, that's why I wanted

786
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: to talk about them here, because yes, you got that

787
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 3: nice win. We didn't really talk about them about that loss.

788
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 3: That they had to the Titans last week. That improbable

789
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 3: that improbably will come back win by Will Levis. But

790
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 3: got the Cowboys now who are coming off with loss.

791
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 3: And we'll see what happens here with the Ravens tonight

792
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: against the Jaguars. But that game could likely determine maybe

793
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,800
Speaker 3: who gets the one seed in the AFC. But we

794
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 3: talked about it right now that the Dolphins could potentially

795
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 3: go oho to two year and then we're looking at

796
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 3: a Week eighteen matchup for the AFC title crown. All right, now,

797
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers Cardinals. You want to talk about a

798
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: shit kicking Niners win forty five to twenty nine total

799
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 3: goes over a forty eight and a half and the

800
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers as the biggest favorites of the week.

801
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 3: Twelve point favorites cover very easily. But another huge game

802
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 3: for brock perty two hundred and forty two passing yards,

803
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 3: four touchdowns, no picks. He is the MVP favorite now

804
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 3: over Dak Prescott at a lot of shops, He's around

805
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 3: minus one fifty. Big shift there because Dak was the

806
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 3: favorite coming off of that last week win. But I

807
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 3: think my main takeaway Evan and I was just talking

808
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 3: about this for offensive player of the year, I think

809
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey is the clear cut offensive player of the year.

810
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 3: Over Tyreek Hill. We talked about this about how if

811
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 3: you get to two thousand yards, you hit that milestone

812
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 3: that will kind of just you get there and you're in.

813
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 3: But three touchdowns today for Christian McCaffrey, and I feel like,

814
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 3: if you're looking for a deciding factor, just look at

815
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 3: the anytime touchdown odds in a week. Christian McCaffrey in

816
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 3: any given week is minus three hundred to minus three

817
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 3: to fifty to score at any time touchdown. When you

818
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 3: look at Tyreeks at anytime touchdown odds minus one eighty

819
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 3: to minus two to ten, it's only getting a minus

820
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: two ten if he's facing a team like the Commanders,

821
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 3: who are like last in Dboa defending the pass. And

822
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 3: obviously when he has one hundred and fifty yards two

823
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 3: touchdowns in that game, it made sense. But that was

824
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 3: kind of my takeaway for that game is that I

825
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 3: feel like Christian McCaffrey, even though I mean, even brock

826
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 3: Party today in the postgame interview said that Christian McCaffrey

827
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 3: should be MVP of the League.

828
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 2: Looking at the MVP odds now an updated list as

829
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 2: we're going through the night, that he's up to minus

830
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 2: two hundred. Now, I mean, my gut's gonna say that

831
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 2: there is value in someone else in the market, but

832
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 2: minus two hundred, and right behind him is Dak at

833
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 2: six to one, Lamar six to one. McCaffrey is sitting

834
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 2: at twenty to one. I think the MVP, truthfully is

835
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 2: probably the most interesting thing to come out of this game.

836
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 2: Concerning the fact that San Francisco gets Baltimore next on Christmas,

837
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 2: I don't think anything that would have happened in this

838
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 2: game would have changed how I felt about that at all.

839
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: Baltimore looking good tonight, and even a loss by Baltimore

840
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 2: against a Jacksonville team in Jacksonville doesn't really change anything

841
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 2: about next week's game. So the one stat which I

842
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 2: think will get brought up when it comes to Purty,

843
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 2: his yards per attempt is insane. It is currently nine

844
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: point eighty eighty three, which minimum two hundred attempts, is

845
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:10,919
Speaker 2: the highest in a single season in the Super Bowl

846
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 2: era by literally the smallest of margins ever over Kurt

847
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: Warner in two thousand. He's having a ridiculous season, his efficiency,

848
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 2: his completion percentage, his yards per attempt. As I just

849
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 2: talked about. It's crazy now the supporting cast. It's a

850
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 2: bit of a difficult conversation to see, like how valuable

851
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 2: is someone in that sense when you know, you look

852
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: at Tyreek Hill and you see what you know, Miami

853
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 2: looked at looked like initially at least without him, you know,

854
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 2: conversation all over the place. I do think Arizona going

855
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 2: forward though, I don't think they look bad. I think

856
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 2: they're going to stay in some of these games. They

857
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 2: got Chicago, Philly in Seattle. The rest of the year

858
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 2: seems like they're competing. I took them plus the points

859
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 2: that I didn't work out, but I might look at

860
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 2: them as underdogs going forward as well.

861
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 4: Well.

862
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 3: The Cardinals worth noting as well. With Murray, they're three

863
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 3: and one against the spread for the first quarter spread.

864
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 3: They've actually scored first in three of four games right

865
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: now with Tyler Murray at quarterbacks. So again, just they

866
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 3: start off ast in every game, but they just get

867
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 3: overwhelmed because they have zero talent on the defensive side.

868
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,879
Speaker 3: But yeah, the forty nine ers are looking very strong

869
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 3: from an MVP standpoint, Rock Purty checks a lot of boxes.

870
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,280
Speaker 3: As far as a team that'll have the best record,

871
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 3: he'll likely be up there. As far as passing touchdowns

872
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,919
Speaker 3: head to head matchup, he'll have that over Dak as well,

873
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 3: So it should be interesting to see where that plays out.

874
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 3: It would not shock me if Rock one MVP and

875
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,919
Speaker 3: McCaffrey won Offensive Player of the Year. I think people

876
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 3: would be very satisfied with that outcome, even though Tyreek

877
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 3: Hill is definitely a worthy candidate for Offensive Player of

878
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 3: the Year. All right, let's round this out now, Commanders,

879
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 3: Rams and Rams win twenty eight to twenty and the

880
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,280
Speaker 3: Rams do cover a six and a half point home favorites,

881
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 3: but the total of forty eight and a half just

882
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 3: goes under. We're going to talk about that here in

883
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 3: a second, because the Rams they moved to seven and

884
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 3: seven and right now are sitting in a wildcard spot

885
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 3: in the NFC. With the Saints coming up. That game

886
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 3: might decide an NFC wildcard spot, But then the Giants

887
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 3: and then of course the forty nine ers that you

888
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 3: alluded to last week, that we might get the week eighteen,

889
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 3: and the forty nine Ers just might not give a

890
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 3: shit anymore, and it might just be a nice little

891
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 3: walkover game for the Rams. But another interesting note here.

892
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,879
Speaker 3: If you had the over, and I believe ev when

893
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 3: we talked about this, you might have had the or

894
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 3: maybe over forty eight and a half. I have to

895
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 3: give you my condolences here because Joey sly cost you

896
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 3: a winner because he had the extra point blocked with

897
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 3: a minute fifty to go on that second touchdown from

898
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: Curtis Samuel that would have put you at forty nine total.

899
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: The Rams still would have been covering in that spot,

900
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 3: but again, that would ban kickers. I mean, really, that's

901
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 3: Those are the types of things where you see that

902
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 3: happen and that makes you immediately feel like we just

903
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,760
Speaker 3: got to take kicking out of the game. Another interesting

904
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 3: end too, Evan, and we'll see how this goes. But again,

905
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 3: with the Lions winning on Saturday over the Broncos and

906
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 3: the Rams sitting right now in a wildcard spot, there's

907
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 3: some nice poetic justice here potentially brewing for the first round,

908
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 3: where there could be the potential where we see a

909
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 3: first round game with Matthew Stafford and the Rams having

910
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 3: to go to Detroit to play the Lions.

911
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 2: The fact that that would be in Detroit and not

912
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: in the Rams, obviously based off the situation, just makes

913
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 2: that literally fifty times better. So that feels amazing. Let's

914
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 2: have the season end today. I think some fans would

915
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 2: love that and some fans would hate that. But the

916
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 2: fact that would be in Detroit, like I just said,

917
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 2: kind of means a lot too, right based off what

918
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 2: we've seen from Goff and Stafford. So the over there

919
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: might be sixty two and a half, but yeah, we'll see.

920
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we the Jared Goff and the Detroit offense

921
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 3: on Saturday just completely dominated. As far as the Broncos

922
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 3: are concerned. The Broncos could not stop tight ends. They

923
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 3: were lasting dvaway to tight ends entering the game. They

924
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: give up three touchdowns in Samuel Porta. I'm not sure

925
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 3: if there's a spot below thirty two in the NFL standings,

926
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 3: but that's where the Broncos are when it comes to

927
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 3: defending tight ends this year. So it should be interesting

928
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 3: to see what happens with that game or a potential outcome.

929
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 3: No matter what, the Lions in the opening round of

930
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 3: the playoffs will be home and that's where we know

931
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 3: that jerick Off from that offense usually does play pretty

932
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 3: well and does usually cover the spread pretty well as

933
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: well in Jared Coff's career. All Right, So that's the

934
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 3: Sunday slate for week fifteen notes. Check with Patrick Everson

935
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 3: with Vegas Insider to see how sportsbooks faired in Las

936
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: Vegas for week fifteen.

937
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:44,879
Speaker 1: Hey, Jill, thanks again for having me on the Action

938
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: Network podcast. I'm talking to you on a Sunday night

939
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 1: after I've gleaned a lot of information from lonsmakers around

940
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: Las Vegas and around the country about how NFL Week

941
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 1: fifteen went for the books and for the betters for

942
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: that matter, and also a little bit of a look

943
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: ahead to the Money Night game even some of these

944
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 1: games coming up on Christmas weekend. There is some dandy

945
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 1: matchups on the schedule. But first let's talk a little

946
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: bit about how this weekend unfolded. Specifically at bet MGM,

947
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 1: I was going back and forth throughout the day with

948
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 1: Christian Cippolini, and he said, before the Sunday night game

949
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 1: between the Ravens and the Jacks, which obviously was gonna

950
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: be a key game, it'said a really weird day. We

951
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 1: got a few games to go our way, but the

952
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 1: important ones didn't go our way, And by that he

953
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 1: means the Chiefs, the Dolphins, and the forty nine ers

954
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: all bad for us. And it rolls into parlays, but

955
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: not only parlays, money line parlays. Depending on what you

956
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 1: got a Chief number act, you might have got to push,

957
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 1: but generally they know they covered because that number did

958
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 1: get below ten. The Niners covered, the Dolphins obviously covered,

959
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: and shutting out the Jets, so they were really going

960
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 1: to need the Jaguars on Sunday night. Jaguars didn't win,

961
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 1: Jaguars didn't cover, So that has the books in a

962
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 1: really interesting spot come Monday, and it's all going to

963
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 1: depend on the injury situation for both teams quarterbacks. What

964
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,720
Speaker 1: Christian said is we take most of the money around kickoff,

965
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: so it would depend on whether Genae Smith starts for

966
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. And and further, he said, look, if the

967
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: Ravens win, which they did, and there's no Geno, they're

968
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 1: gonna need the Seahawks really bad tomorrow night. However, if

969
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 1: Gino plays and Jalen hurts, Eagles QB who's under the

970
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 1: weather like I am, he probably has the same credit

971
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 1: that I'm dealing with this weekend, except I don't have

972
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 1: to go out and play quarterback and get chased around

973
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: by three hundred pounds defensive lineman. But he said, if

974
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: Gino plays and it Hurts is still sick, he anticipates

975
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 1: that they get more Seahawks money and that might mitigate

976
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: some of the liability there. But if Hurts is playing

977
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,240
Speaker 1: with what raven what happens in the Ravens game tonight,

978
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 1: it'll they'll they'll definitely be leaning into the Seahawks heavily

979
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 1: tomorrow behind the count Benham Jam. They're gonna want Seattle

980
00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: to at least cover that game, and they'd love somehow

981
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: for Seattle to spring the upset. And I spoke with

982
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 1: another odds maker here in Las Vegas, and what he

983
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 1: had to say is that even though the Ravens won

984
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 1: and covered tonight, the fact that that game stayed under

985
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: was really good for them, and they actually had a

986
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 1: pretty good day, mainly because of Buffalo running over Dallas.

987
00:48:58,280 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 1: He said, the Buffalo, it was a really good day

988
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: for us with the Buffalo win. And he said, Ravens

989
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 1: an over would take a bit out of the day,

990
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 1: but we would still do well, instead they got Ravens

991
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: and unders. So they probably lost a little bit to

992
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: the Ravens against the Jags tonight, but by the game

993
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 1: staying under the total, they did all right there, so

994
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 1: it's going to be a win for that particular book.

995
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: Now as we go to Monday night, this is from

996
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 1: bet MGM. Here are the numbers at least as of

997
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 1: Sunday at bet MGM for this game, and that the

998
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: Eagles are actually taking eighty percent of spread tickets and

999
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: eighty two percent of spread money. Now, the bulk of

1000
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 1: money is going to come in on game day and

1001
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: if Jalen Hurds isn't playing, that's gonna shift this dynamic dramatically.

1002
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 1: Obviously it'll shift with Gino Smith too, but Jalen Hurts

1003
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 1: is obviously much more high profile. So keep an eye

1004
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 1: on the injury report, the illness report, I guess it is,

1005
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 1: and in the case of Jalen Hurts, because that could

1006
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: shift things significantly on the total in tomorrow night's game.

1007
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: Monday Night's game, you got about two and a half

1008
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 1: to one tickets and three to one money coming in

1009
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 1: on the over. That's obviously going to get impacted heavily

1010
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 1: by who or who is not at quarterback. Now, let's

1011
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 1: jump ahead to week sixteen. Christmas weekend, we got a

1012
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 1: few good games and two just superb games. On Christmas

1013
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 1: Eve you got the Dallas Cowboys at the Miami Dolphins.

1014
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 1: And on Christmas Day night, wrapping up a triple header,

1015
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: you've got the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francis of

1016
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. This could be a Super Bowl preview.

1017
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 1: These two teams are one and two on the Super

1018
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 1: Bowl odds board at many books. Let's start with that

1019
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: that Christmas Day night one. I spoke with the Vegas

1020
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 1: odsmaker on this Sunday evening open San fran minus five,

1021
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: noting that the forty nine ers are banged up on

1022
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 1: defense entering this battle and injuries are not He said

1023
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 1: the book will need Baltimore in this game. He said

1024
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: the Christmas Day money line. Again, it's a triple header

1025
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: of games. He said, the money line parlay of Chiefs

1026
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 1: to Eagles to Niners is looking like an easy way

1027
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,720
Speaker 1: for public betters to make Christmas cash, so he expects

1028
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 1: the public to be all in on the I would

1029
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 1: call it the Christmas money line parlay. Christmas Day money

1030
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: line parlay it actually rhymes a little bit. And then

1031
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: on the day before Christmas Eve the Cowboys Dolphins game.

1032
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: This game opens Miami minus two initially backs up to

1033
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 1: one and a half. That's where we're sitting late Sunday night. However,

1034
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 1: the odds maker said, if Tyreek Hill heals up with

1035
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: his ankle, along with the Dolphins offensive line and defensive

1036
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,879
Speaker 1: backfield getting better, they're banged up in those areas as well,

1037
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 1: he thinks the number is gonna move toward Miami minus three.

1038
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 4: So there we have it, folks.

1039
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: I'll look back at the weekend that was in the

1040
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 1: NFL kind of a mixed bag. Some books did well,

1041
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 1: some books are going to take away in seattitude and

1042
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: probably will need Seattle, could need Seattle very badly come

1043
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 1: Monday night. And with that I look ahead to Monday

1044
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 1: night as well, and of course I'll look at a

1045
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 1: couple of the key Week sixteen games. Thanks lot for

1046
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: hav Migille, will see you next time.

1047
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 3: Thank you Patrick, and thanks for listening to the Action

1048
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 3: Network podcast presented by bet MGM. The Enjoy Monday Night

1049
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,439
Speaker 3: football and keep an eye out for Oliver NFL Week

1050
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 3: sixteen podcasts. Right here on the.

1051
00:51:52,920 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 1: Action note, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1052
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1053
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,359
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1054
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:20,160
Speaker 1: hundred gambler