1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: the Russia goes further with this evasion. We stand prepared 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: to go further with sanctions because we are taking in 4 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: oil from Russia. That gets Bottomer Blood leverage, spite up right, 5 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on Politics, Policy and perspective from DC's top names. 6 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: Let's say Britain succeeds and it takes over all of 7 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: your create. Well, then we're looking at a new line 8 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: in Europe that wasn't there before. It's sort of a 9 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: tip per tat that we're looking at right now, and 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: the question is where do we go from here? Bloomberg 11 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: Sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, and we 12 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: add another layer sanctions on nord stream to now reality 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: here in the US as President Biden expands sanctions against 14 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: Russia and considers releasing more oil from our strategic reserve. 15 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. Will bring you 16 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: the latest in a moment as Washington waits for Vladimir 17 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: Putin's next move, and we'll discuss it all with Daniel Freed, 18 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: former Ambassador to Poland, former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe. 19 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: Later will explore the impact of sanctions and what may 20 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: come next with Brian O'Toole of the Atlantic Council, former 21 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: advisor to the Treasury Department Sanctions Unit. Our signature panel 22 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: is in place. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Chantano and Rick 23 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: Davis are with us for the hour. And the Biden 24 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 1: administration today dropping the hammer on nord Stream too, technically 25 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: sanctioning the company that built the pipeline, nord Stream to 26 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: a G and its corporate officers. And it came just today, 27 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: of course, after the President unveiled the first Tronsh as 28 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: we now call it. We're going with Tronsh right around 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: the world. As he indicated more would becoming. The President 30 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: has come under increasing pressure to do more, even from 31 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: some of his Democratic allies in the Senate, as we've 32 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: told you, also from Ukraine itself. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dimitro 33 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: Kuleba spoke with Bloomberg a short time ago. Well, they 34 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: did the first wave, which is welcome and helpful, but 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: it sends it sends a strong message to put In, 36 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: but it still doesn't stop him. So it means we 37 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: need more sanctions. We need the second wave, and then 38 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 1: probably the third way until it gets clear to him 39 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: that he shouldn't make any step further, and that may 40 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: depend on what Russia, or should we just say, Vladimir 41 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: Putin does next. The U. S Military is moving further 42 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: east though in Europe kind of gone Press Secretary John 43 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: Kirby a short time ago. An infantry battalion task force 44 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: of approximately eight personnel are we moving from Italy to 45 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: the Baltic region. It's a movement of up to eight 46 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: F thirty five strike fighters from Germany to several operating 47 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: locations along the eastern flank. A battalion of attack aviation 48 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: and specifically twenty six helicopters from Germany again to the 49 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: Baltic region, and an attack aviation task force which is 50 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: twelve sixty four helicopters happening as we speak. He says 51 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 1: they'll be there by the end of the week. And 52 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: we're joined to talk about all of this by Daniel Freed, 53 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: former Ambassador to old informer Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, 54 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 1: now a Wiser family, distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. 55 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: He's back with us on sound on, Ambassador, thank you 56 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: for being here. Does this kind of force projection that 57 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: we're seeing in Poland and neighboring countries mean anything to 58 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin. It does mean that the West is not 59 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: going to sit by passively while he threatens war against 60 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: his neighbor He knows perfectly well that NATO in the 61 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: United States don't intend to attack attack Russia, but he's 62 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: trying to intimidate the West into basically retreating. He's demanded 63 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: that the US pull out of Poland and the Baltic States, 64 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: and Biden is not going to do it. The West 65 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: is pretty united and that will make an impression on Putin, 66 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: but he still may attack you praying hold on, Well, 67 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: the nord Stream two sanctions announced today, ambassador have an 68 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: impact on Russia. Or is this more of a symbolic 69 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: move since it's well, not actually operational yet. Well, it's 70 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: more than symbolic. Yesterday Germany froze construction, well froze the 71 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: certification process of the pipeline. The constructions complete, but Germany 72 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: had not yet authorized it to go operational. Germany said 73 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: yesterday they were going to freeze that process. The United 74 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: States followed with sanctions, and my understanding is Germany was 75 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: not surprised that we told him we were doing it. 76 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: That is not symbolism. Putin thought the Germany would never 77 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: allow political considerations, considerations of strategy to get in the 78 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: way of this pipeline deal. But things changed when Germany 79 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: looked at Putin's aggression against Ukraine, they changed their views. 80 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: That's a big move by Germany. Today's moved by the 81 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: US follows up. But the big blow came yesterday. Putin's 82 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: aggression means he's lost Germany. That's a big deal. Well, 83 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: it certainly is after what we heard from Chancellor Shults 84 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 1: on his visit to the White House when he said 85 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: he was on board, he was part of the team, 86 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: but wouldn't actually articulate what happened Poland. It's in a 87 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 1: very peculiar place in this whole conversation. And it's not 88 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: just the idea of Russia rolling over the border or 89 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: a cyber attack ricocheting from Kiev across the border. They're 90 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: preparing for a massive humanitarian crisis. This is a part 91 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: of the story that hasn't gotten much coverage yet because 92 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 1: it hasn't begun. But after what we saw in Syria, 93 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 1: after what we saw in Afghanistan, we know how this 94 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 1: story goes. How capable well countries along the border be 95 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: in handling potentially thousands of refugees, the looming humanitarian crisis 96 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: that countries like Poland will have to endure. How much 97 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: can they handle? Woo doesn't come to that, but if 98 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: it does, the US the EU will help Poland. Poland 99 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: won't be alone. Now. There are about a million Ukrainians 100 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: already in Poland, living there and working there, and they 101 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: get along with the Poles really well. Similar language, similar culture. 102 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: Ukrainians are popular in Poland, so I think Polish society 103 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: will welcome them as refugees fleeing Putin's oppression. Putin's war 104 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: don't need help, but I think Polish society will open 105 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: its arms. Judging by what I know of the many 106 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: Ukrainians and Poland right now, the two people's get along. 107 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: I'd like to hear your answer to the question I 108 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: asked you a moment ago, Ambassador, and that is what's 109 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: the big one? What are the crippling sanctions if we 110 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,799 Speaker 1: go all the way that would actually have an impact 111 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: on Putin? Well, the Biben administration is hinted at this, 112 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: and yesterday's just sanctions decisions or a taste of what's 113 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: to come. The Vibe administration could drop the hammer, by 114 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: which I mean full blocking sanctions against major Russian state banks. 115 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: Yesterday they hit the fifth largest and eighth largest bank, 116 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: but they could go after the biggest. They could go 117 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,679 Speaker 1: after v t V Bank, they could go after spare Bunk, 118 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: they could go after other state owned companies. Those are 119 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: big sanctions. You don't get up easily from from sanctions 120 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: like that. So they explain to our listeners, though, Ambassador, 121 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: what impact that would have. We talked about sanctioning banks. 122 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: What would that actually do to change the scenario in Russia. 123 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: It means that the ruble would crash, the markets would crash, 124 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: It would be hard for the Russian economy to function 125 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: with the outside world. It would mean a cut in 126 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: the growth rebels, probably send the Russian economy into a recession. Now, 127 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: the Russians will retaliate. You mentioned this earlier, and you 128 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 1: were right. This is going to be ugly. Pres and 129 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: Biden warned us last week that Russian retaliation could be serious. 130 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 1: So this is an ugly This could be an ugly situation. 131 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: But the United States and Europe or standing firm. I 132 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: don't think Putin counted on that. Uh. The other sanctions. 133 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: The other big sanction is an expert control, basically a 134 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: ban on all semiconductors going to Russia. That's big, and 135 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: it looks like a lot of the Asian countries, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, 136 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: they're going to join us. This is a big deal. 137 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 1: This will hurt the Russian economy. Putin wants a war. 138 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: We have ways to push back, certainly keep him from 139 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: creating a lot of new military hardware. Interesting hearing you 140 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: answer the question on sanctions, ambassador, because you sure get 141 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: the sense that while this could be a major impact 142 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 1: on the people of Russia, Vladimir Putin doesn't care. Uh. 143 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: Is there any way to touch him directly? Is there 144 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: any way to find his money, to go after those 145 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: who are hiding his money. It's not as easy as 146 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: simply as saying it. We can say we want to 147 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: go after Putin's money, we can announce steps, but doing 148 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 1: so is not going to be easy. Still, if you're right, 149 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: it's probably a good thing to do, and probably a 150 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 1: good thing also to expose his wealth. He's one of 151 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 1: the world's richest men, and he didn't get that by 152 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: saving his government salaries. He's hidden the money well. But 153 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: the Russian people don't seem to like corrupt oligarchs. They're 154 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: not gonna like it when we uncover stuff about Putin, 155 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,839 Speaker 1: and if he starts a war, maybe in any event, 156 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: we ought to do it, go after him and go 157 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: after more of his circle. We started that in the 158 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: Biden administration. I was the Senitions coordinator after Putin as attacked. 159 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: When Putin attacked to quit the first time. So I 160 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 1: was doing this along with Brian O'Toole. You're next guesting. Yeah, 161 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: you've seen this movie before, Ambassador. I only have thirty 162 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: seconds left, Sir. I wish I had an hour with you. 163 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: How far do you think Vladimir Putin is gonna go? 164 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: Is he gonna annex parts of the Bush? I don't know. 165 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 1: The Biden administration thinks he's gonna launch a general attack 166 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: on Ukraine, all the World War two style. I am 167 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: not convinced to that yet. The Biden administration isn't making 168 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: it up right, they're not HIPing they've got the intelligence. 169 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: But we're all hoping that it doesn't happen. Ambassador Daniel Fried, 170 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: You're always welcome here. Former Ambassador to polling. Great to 171 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: have you with us. Why is her family distinguished fellow 172 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: at the Atlantic Council. To his point, we'll have his 173 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: former colleague Bryan O'Toole a bit later on the sanctions Expert. 174 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: But we assemble the panel next. Rick and Jenier with 175 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: us on sound on. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 176 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew 177 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. The headline on the terminal separatists asked 178 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: Putin to help fight Ukraine Kremlin says, it's almost like 179 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 1: we saw this coming, almost like we were told it 180 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:03,079 Speaker 1: would happen. Let's assemble the panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie 181 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,319 Speaker 1: Chanzano and Rick Davis are with us on the fastest 182 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 1: hour in politics. Genie, Ambassador Freed spoke a moment ago 183 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: to the significance of the Nord's dream too sanctions, and 184 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: we should note it actually prompted Senator Ted Cruz to 185 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: lift the holds he had put on a bunch of 186 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: President Biden's nominees. Overall of that's got a nice response 187 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: from the ranking member on the Foreign Relations Committee, But 188 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: will it make any difference for Ukraine. They are important, 189 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: as the ambassador mentioned, um, you know the Germany's action 190 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: the other day the United States following that, these are important. 191 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: I don't think Russia was completely convinced that they would 192 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: act in concert, given Germany's dependency on their oil, but 193 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: they have and so that is a good sign. Whether 194 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: they change or dissuade Poo and if he had an 195 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: intention to go in full force to Ukraine from doing that, 196 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: I think is another question. And I don't think we 197 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 1: know the answer to that yet. Was this the right 198 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: thing here? Rick, and I guess a better way to 199 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: add skit was too late. This is something that the 200 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: president was called on to do that he decided not 201 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: to do early in his presidency, and of course a 202 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: lot has happened since then. Is it too little, too late? Yeah? Look, 203 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 1: I think the administration's plan was to try to use 204 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 1: the threat of sanctions as a deterrent to, you know, 205 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 1: the invasion, and by their own determination, the invasion has started, 206 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: so they weren't deterrence the threat. And so now we're 207 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: going to see if the sanctions themselves, UH can either 208 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: slow down the momentum or at least create enough pressure 209 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: on Vladimir Putin not to take even more extreme actions. Uh. Look, 210 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: I think ambassador freed with spot On. I mean, I 211 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: think you know, his view was that, um, you know, 212 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: these sanctions, if done in a in a methodical way 213 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: and ratcheted up like he described, could could have a 214 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 1: positive impact on the outcome. But again you're dealing with 215 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: you know, uh, someone in Vladimir Putin, who really, I 216 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,959 Speaker 1: don't think listens to anybody. We heard from Ukraine's foreign 217 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:03,599 Speaker 1: minister earlier today Bloomberg. Dimitrio Kuleba spoke with Bloomberg's and 218 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: Marie Hordern, who asked about the prospect of Putin annexing 219 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: the separatist regions in the dun Boss that have been 220 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 1: identified here, remembering that Vladimir Putin annexed crimea twenty four 221 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: hours after acknowledging it much in the same way he 222 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 1: did here. Here was his answer, Not within the next 223 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: twenty four hours. But do you expect that at some 224 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: point in the near future. So no, at certain at 225 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: certain point. The problem with President Putin is that he 226 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: lives in his own world. He had doesn't have checks 227 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: and balances, he doesn't have free media. Really, actually, we 228 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: don't really need to hear anymore. The fact is he 229 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: did not say no, Uh, Genie, is that Putin's next move? 230 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: It very well could be. And I think that that's 231 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 1: why it's important that the United States, the Biden administration, NATO, 232 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: it's European allies keep in concert the fact that they 233 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: have room to maneuver on these sanctions. I think one 234 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: that struck me maybe not the most potent, but may 235 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: hit by hit Putin rather, is this ex warding of 236 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: American technology to Russia, because one thing we know is 237 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: Putin is dependent on the oligarchs over there for their support, 238 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: and he's dependent on the public. The more strain you 239 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: put in those two areas increasingly, the more you can 240 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 1: potentially deter him. I'm not convinced it's gonna work, but 241 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 1: I think those kinds of abilities to ratchet this thing 242 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: up are what's going to make the difference if anything 243 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: short of boots on the ground by the United States 244 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: and NATO can and I guess that's not going to happen, 245 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: Rick and and and since Vladimir Putin apparently doesn't care 246 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: about the rest of this conversation here, does he annex 247 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: the don boss oh, I think Vamir Putin is probably 248 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: sitting with bated breath to know what we're saying. Um, 249 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: uh yeah. I think the annexes the Don Boss and 250 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: then when the attack occurs, you know, against Russian troops 251 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: in the Don Boss by the Ukrainian regulars Hill then 252 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: and claim he has to protect them by invading the 253 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: balance of the country. Look, um, there's a game plan 254 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: that he's executing, and as you pointed out earlier, this 255 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: is not like happening in real time, and this is 256 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: all according to the plan. People are just doing their 257 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: part in the very extraordinary and and evil play that 258 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin's scripting out here. I want to ask you 259 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: both about war powers. Uh. This topic now in the 260 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: air again on Capitol Hill. We heard today from the 261 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: Democratic leadership by way of Nancy Pelosi, but she was 262 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: joined by a number of other lawmakers, some of whom 263 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: signed off on what was a bipartisan letter forty three 264 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: members of Congress D S and ours a letter to 265 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: the Biden administration to quote, reassert the war powers vested 266 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: in Congress under the Constitution. This is something that Congresswoman 267 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 1: Barbara Lee, Democrat from California, famously this is her issue 268 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: spoke about today increase intentions. We we signed the letter 269 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: and wrote the letter because we want to make sure 270 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: that that uh what the War Powers UH Act is 271 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: complied with, and that that the public understands that the 272 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: president means what he says, because he's not going to 273 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: uh insert ground troops into this possible encourage Jennie. We've 274 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: asked a lot of lawmakers on this broadcast about it. 275 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: None of them have have even nibbled on this as 276 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: as being necessary. Uh. Do we need another authorization for 277 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: the use of force here or at least some guardrails 278 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: on the way the military is handled. You know. I 279 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: think it's something that people feel like they don't want 280 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: to address now because the Biden administration has taken that 281 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: off the table. But if that was to come back on, 282 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: it certainly should be. I mean, one thing we should 283 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: keep in mind about what Putin is intent on doing 284 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: is disrupting the way of life of democracies like the 285 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: United States. One aspect of our way of life is 286 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: we have a Congress and an executive branch who don't 287 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: have full authority. They share power, and so that becomes 288 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: critical from that perspective alone. Although Rick, they couldn't come 289 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: up with the sanctions bill, How the heck are they 290 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: going to do this? Well, they're not gonna do this, 291 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 1: and and and it's unfortunate that even try. Right. In 292 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: addition to the lawmakers you've interviewed, you've interviewed a number 293 00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: of former generals who say, why would we ever take 294 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 1: chess pieces off the table? That's right, Rick Davis back 295 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: with us today along with Genie Chantano or a signature 296 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: panel reunited. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Glad you're spending 297 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 1: time with us on Bloomberg Sound On. We're gonna be 298 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 1: joined next by Brian O'Toole, used to advise the Treasury 299 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: Department Sanctions Unit and expert is next. This is Bloomberg Today. 300 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: We're bringing you here on sound On Voices of experience, 301 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: deep experience and diplomacy and with sanctions as we try 302 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 1: to make sense of all the headlines that have been flying. 303 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 1: We take a deep dive on this program. And we're 304 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: joined now by Brian O'Toole, Senior fellow at the Atlantic 305 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: Council's Geo Economics Center, former advisor to the Treasury Departments 306 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: sanctions Unit. Brian, Welcome back to Bloomberg. Thanks for having me. 307 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: I'd like to start with the biggest news out of 308 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 1: the White House today, sanctions on nord Stream to a 309 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: g the company that built the pipeline. I know this 310 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: was a delicate dance with our European allies, especially during 311 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: any Is it the right move right now? It certainly is. 312 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: I mean there has there has been a great hue 313 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,199 Speaker 1: and cry from a lot of the Western world about, 314 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: you know, kind of pronouncements out of various German officials 315 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: that nord Stream too was not a political um, political 316 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: pipeline or project um. And I think, you know, regardless 317 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: of what what waffling they have been, enough happened. Um. 318 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: The diplomacy between the US and Germany worked out the 319 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: way it should. Germany took the action first to the 320 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: U s is reinforcing it to good outcome. Would have 321 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: made a difference if it had been done earlier. As 322 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: many Republicans say, I don't know how much of a 323 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: difference it would have made for Ukraine's security and territorial 324 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: stability had this been done earlier. I mean, it's always 325 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: hard to prove a counter factual, but I don't. I 326 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: don't know that the economic impact of nord Stream to 327 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: being shut down, you know, even as as significant as 328 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 1: it may be, is really enough to have prompted or 329 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: to have forestalled um, you know, putting from from crossing 330 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: this line certainly cannsidering the fact that it's not operational yet. 331 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: There's a big debate in Washington about timing here. As 332 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: I know you're well aware whether to go incremental, as 333 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: I think you've described this approach, or to go all 334 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 1: the way with punishing sanctions that have been promised if 335 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: Russia goes further, can we tell Brian based on history 336 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: which approach works better. I don't think there's any great 337 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: history on imposing the types of sanctions that are under 338 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: consideration on an economy as large as Russia's. Um. You know, 339 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 1: Iran was a relatively large economy, but order of magnitude smaller. 340 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 1: So I think you know the the approach here and 341 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 1: and the reason why there's a debate I think between 342 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: this incremental versus go big you know approach is a 343 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: fundamental miscommunication issue, right, which is a classic problem in 344 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 1: international relations. If Putin doesn't understand or acknowledge the impact 345 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,479 Speaker 1: that major sanctions against a commercial bank will have like 346 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: you know, they're basically for very large commercial banks in Russia. 347 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: If he doesn't know what that is or understand just 348 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: how much that's gonna hurt, then the deterrent effect that 349 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 1: the threats have is necessarily lower. And so I think 350 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: now that he's crossed the line, um, that that worry 351 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: is still there because they took more of a measured 352 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: approach and then there's no there's reason why they did that. Um. 353 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: It's so I don't want to criticize too much over it, 354 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: but that that potential disconnect about what the impact of say, 355 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: full blocking sanctions against the VTB or a spare bank 356 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,399 Speaker 1: might do to the Russian economy could give putin the 357 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: impression he's got a freer hand than he may actually have, 358 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 1: and you may be diminishing your deterrent effect. I'm not 359 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: demonstrating kind of that immediate big impact of big bank stanctions. Well, 360 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: the debate over timing, among other things, resulted in a 361 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: fallout in negotiations on Capitol Hill. No bill ever came 362 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 1: out of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate, despite 363 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 1: a lot of tough talk. Brian I wonder has that 364 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: hampered the Biden administration in dealing with this or is 365 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: that Congress just yelling at itself. Well, I don't. I 366 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: don't think the Biden administration is lacking for sanctions authorities. 367 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: The kind of laws on the books, as it were, 368 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: are extraordinarily broad, um and inflexible. Now, sometimes it is 369 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,919 Speaker 1: useful to have Congress in the background saying if the 370 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 1: administration is not tough enough, we're going to go crazy 371 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 1: and smack you around. You know, that kind of message 372 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 1: to Putin might be useful. I think that that's still 373 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: kind of that specter is still there even without a 374 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: bill on the table Um and I would, frankly, i'd 375 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:41,239 Speaker 1: expect if if Putin expands the kind of boundaries of 376 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 1: these republics or makes a bigger push and Congress, especially 377 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: the Dems, UM and Congress believe that the White House 378 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 1: isn't being strong enough, I bet you there's a build 379 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 1: that materializes pretty quickly. So what's left here? Brian? People 380 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: talk about going all the way, punishing crippling sanctions. What 381 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: is going all the way? Look, it starts with going 382 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: after those big four state owned financial institutions. It starts 383 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: with going after other sectors of the economy that may 384 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 1: be vulnerable to sanctions and then from there ratcheting up 385 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: the pressure potentially. And this depends on exactly where Putin 386 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: is going with us, right, is it just take over Ukraine? 387 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 1: Is it fundamentally you know, menace Poland and the Baltics? Um? Right, 388 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: these things start to get really scary really quickly when 389 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: you talk about NATO defense obligations and actual military confrontation, 390 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: and that made prompt sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia, 391 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 1: against the big state oil and gas companies, things like that. 392 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit of a stimulus response 393 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: approach to some degree, and the administration is going to 394 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: try to use threats to contain or constrained Putin at 395 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: every single step. But it it's it's a matter of 396 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: how far Putin is really willing to go. And his 397 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,479 Speaker 1: speech the other day shouldn't give anybody any comfort. Well, 398 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: that's right. There's been talk about personal sanctions, trying to 399 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 1: go after Vladimir Houton on an individual level. Is it 400 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 1: possible to sanction a man who knows how to hide money? 401 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 1: So well, I mean, sure you can sanction, and i 402 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: I've I've never been a huge fan of sanctions against 403 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: heads of state, I'm not sure it gets you much. Um. 404 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: As you said, he can hide his money. It's not 405 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: that hard if you're you're in control of an economy 406 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 1: and you can forge documents with with no repercussions. Does 407 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: the Treasury already have these steps figured out? Or are 408 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: they building the plane in flight? Do they know, to 409 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: Jen Psaki's point yesterday that the next wave comes with 410 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: the press of a button or are these ongoing deliberations. 411 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 1: I think it's mostly press of a button. I think 412 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 1: you know, the Treasure Department has to put together actual 413 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,400 Speaker 1: like legal packages to sanction sanction people. So that's been done, 414 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 1: I imagine, I imagine all of those are done. Um. 415 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: And so then what it comes down to is the 416 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:53,119 Speaker 1: decision by President Biden and his cabinet about exactly who's 417 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: going to get the who's going to get the act um. 418 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 1: And you know, it struck me that one of the 419 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 1: reasons he may have been late and get his address 420 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 1: yesterday was they were busy deciding that UM. And so 421 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 1: you know that's why Treasury came out a little bit later. 422 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 1: And you know, those things happened right U until the 423 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: last minute that's that's kind of how policy making works. 424 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 1: So but my my, my impression is that there are 425 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: a lot of sanctions targets locked and ready to go. 426 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: He's a man who knows. Brian O'Toole, Senior fellow at 427 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 1: the Atlantic Council's Geo Economics Center, Brian many thanks for 428 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: your insights helping us clarify this today on Bloomberg Radio. 429 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 1: Thanks so much. Donald Trump is making headlines. Did you 430 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 1: know what he said? Of course, no stranger to Russia 431 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 1: or Vladimir Putin for that matter. Still a big fan, 432 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 1: as it turns out, of the Russian president. Will play 433 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: for you what he said. Talked about it with the panel, 434 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: Rick and Jeanie with us today our signature panel on 435 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening 436 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 437 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 1: Donald Trump still has a soft spot in his heart 438 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: for Vladimir Putin, it seems, and what timing to express 439 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: such feelings, only twenty four hours after Putin's televised rant 440 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 1: and decision to acknowledge the separatist regions and the done 441 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: Boss with plans to send troops into the region, and 442 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 1: of course American intelligence warning on a daily basis that 443 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin is planning much worse. Here is the former 444 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: president on the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show. I 445 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 1: went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and 446 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 1: I said, this is genius. Putin declares a big portion 447 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: of the Ukraine of Ukraine, Putin declares it as independent. 448 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 1: Oh that's wonderful. So Putin is now saying it's independent 449 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that? 450 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: And he's going to go in and be a peacekeeper. 451 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: And he described Putin as more than just smart and genius. No, 452 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: but think of it. Here's a guy who's very savvy. 453 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: I know him very well, very very well. By the way, 454 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: this never would have happened with us had I've been 455 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: in office, not even thinkable, This would never have happened. 456 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,800 Speaker 1: But here's the guy that says, you know, I'm going 457 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:16,160 Speaker 1: to declare a big portion of Ukraine independent. He used 458 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: the word independent, and we're gonna go out and we're 459 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,119 Speaker 1: gonna go in and we're gonna help keep peace. You 460 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 1: got to say that's pretty savvy, savvy, smart, genius and 461 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 1: apparently this ran through the administration. Donald Trump's comments were 462 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,119 Speaker 1: reinforced by what we heard from his former Secretary of 463 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: State Mike Pompeo yesterday. I consider him a elegantly sophisticated 464 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: counterpart and one who is not reckless, but has always 465 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 1: done the math. And we may disagree with his priorities. 466 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 1: We may disagree with his math. We certainly disagree that 467 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: the interest that he seeks are reasonable for his country 468 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,879 Speaker 1: many cases, but we should never underestimate that he is 469 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,400 Speaker 1: He is doing this in a way where he's exhibiting 470 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: his capacitated control and his deep desire that he is 471 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: most important objective, and I should have listened this first. 472 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: His most important objective is that he continues to run 473 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: the deal. First and foremost, he is about power for himself, 474 00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 1: making sure that his place as the leader of Russia continues. 475 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 1: But we got that out. That was from a conversation 476 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 1: hosted by the Center for the National Interest, So elegantly 477 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: sophisticated genius smart putin let's reassembled the panel Rick and 478 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: Genie with US Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Chanzano and Rick 479 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 1: Davis uh Rick. I think I know what your take 480 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: on this will be It's one thing, though to hear 481 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 1: from Donald trumpet's another to hear from Mike Pompeo, who 482 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 1: has further political aspirations. Both of these guys could end 483 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 1: up running for president. Yeah, I hope they run against 484 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 1: each other and counter each other out. I think it 485 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 1: would be the best case scenario for this situation. But look, 486 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: I mean, there are elements the Tucker Carlson Republican wing 487 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 1: who seemed to be accommodating Vladimir Putin, and and and 488 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 1: and and if anything, sucking up to him. I mean, 489 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: it's really a significant departure from where the Republican Party 490 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 1: has been in my entire lifetime, dating back to Ronald Reagan, 491 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: who was able to free the people of Russia from 492 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: the Soviet binds of the Soviet Union, to where we 493 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 1: are today. I mean, it's a it's a it's a 494 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 1: steep decline from from the orthodoxy of the Republican movement. 495 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: What if Donald Trump were to be president again, I mean, 496 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: that's that's certainly a likelihood. He says that he wants 497 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,000 Speaker 1: to run, it's entirely likely that he would be elected 498 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 1: if he did. Rick Davis, what would that do to 499 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: our relationship with Russia and the rest of the world. Look, 500 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 1: these kinds of comments only five or six years ago 501 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 1: would have been completely disqualifying to a person who wanted 502 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: to get the nomination from the Republican Party for president. 503 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 1: So uh, it's it's untreaded ground, right, I mean, I 504 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: think people would have to be clear now that if 505 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: they want Vladimir Putin to be, you know, second only 506 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 1: to the President United States in um dividing up the 507 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: spoils of the world, then then that would be the 508 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 1: person you'd want to have nominated for the party. I 509 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: suspect this this would change the dynamic of the Republicans 510 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: running against Donald Trump, and there will be plenty who 511 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: will use this as a way of trying to draw 512 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: that contrast. So uh, it's a it's an ominous comment, 513 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: you know, on the heels of an invasion into a 514 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: free country. You know, Genie, we really try not to 515 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: play into media stereotypes here and you know, do the 516 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 1: Trump bashing thing and all of that, But the comments 517 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: are out there. Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised, like 518 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 1: I said, by what Donald Trump said. But well, Mike 519 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: Pompeo regret those comments, Oh he will if he if 520 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: he wants to seriously run for president and have a 521 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 1: serious chance of winning. You know, listening to Donald Trump 522 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,959 Speaker 1: um speaking, you wonder does he have love letters from 523 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 1: Putin the way he claims to have them from King 524 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 1: Jong Un? And you know, I would just say that this, 525 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 1: to me exacerbates a longstanding division in the Republican Party 526 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,239 Speaker 1: between the more isolationist wing and the hawks, and I 527 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: find Donald Trump in the middle. All about Donald Trump, 528 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 1: as that last clip depicted, you know, unlike some of 529 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: the more isolationists like Tucker Carlson and Josh Holly, he's 530 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 1: saying that the one difference would have been if he 531 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 1: was in office, Putin never would have tried this. So 532 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 1: for Trump, it's all about Trump, which takes the Republican 533 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,280 Speaker 1: Party right back to Georgia Senate when they lose the 534 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 1: Senate seats that they should have won. So, you know, 535 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 1: to me, this is all about Trump being about himself. 536 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: There is a serious debate in the Republican Party, just 537 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 1: like there is one of the Democratic Party about how 538 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 1: much the U s should be spread thin around the world. 539 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,959 Speaker 1: Those are real debates. This one with Trump is not. Well. 540 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: Look Rick let me ask you the tough question as 541 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 1: a Republican here. Uh, look, you may not think Vladimir 542 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: Putin is elegantly sophisticated or a genius for that matter, 543 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: but as Donald Trump, right, would this have happened if 544 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 1: he was in office? Well, I mean, let's think about 545 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: what happened when Donald Trump was in office, right, I mean, 546 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: like Vladimir Putin sat in Crimea without one effort to 547 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 1: try and take him out, even though it was the 548 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 1: you know, the country's policy as it relates to the 549 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 1: Minska agreements to get him out of the the c's territory. 550 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 1: So there was never an effort on the part of 551 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,479 Speaker 1: the Trump administration to put any pressure on um on 552 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: on President Putin to to get him out of uh, 553 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: the Ukraine. So why would we believe, now, uh, that 554 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: he'd advanced a new invasion strategy, that Donald Trump would 555 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 1: stand up to him for the exact same cause. So 556 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 1: it's almost as if he was suggesting that they knew 557 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 1: each other so well and they were such kind of 558 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 1: pals and c and eyed eye and having respect for 559 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 1: each other, genie, that you know, just a phone call 560 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 1: might have taken care of this. Yeah, that that was 561 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 1: always Trump's selling point, right, which was that you know, 562 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 1: I am so good at negotiating people just to love me. 563 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 1: I can go around the world and I can make 564 00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,920 Speaker 1: these things happen. To Rick's point, he wasn't able to 565 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: make it happen in Ukraine with CRIMEA, he wasn't able 566 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,320 Speaker 1: to make it happen in North Korea, he wasn't able 567 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 1: to make it happen in China with the trade. So 568 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 1: you know, failure after failure on these points. He sold 569 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 1: himself as somebody who could do these things because of 570 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 1: his personality and his business background, but it certainly didn't 571 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 1: come to fruition policy wise. Well is there's no point 572 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 1: trying to get inside anyone's head here. But there are 573 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 1: a lot of questions about not just Donald Trump, of course, 574 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: put Vladimir Putin's better intentions right now. Uh. Sir Peter 575 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: Westmacott was on the balance of power with David Weston's, 576 00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: a former British ambassador to the US, suggesting that people 577 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 1: who know Putin are wondering if he's still all there. 578 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 1: There's plenty of technical intelligence. You know, how many tanks 579 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 1: of that, how many airplanes, many helicopters, how many hospital units. 580 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 1: What about the satellite petography. All that is is pretty remarkable, 581 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: But what we don't have is a comer inside his head. 582 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 1: And some of the foreign diplomats and leaders who have 583 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 1: seen President Putin in recent times have been saying privately, 584 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: he's not the same guy. He's not the same guy, 585 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 1: Rick Davis? Is is he a madman or crazy like 586 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: a fox? Well? I mean, the indications are pretty stark. 587 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 1: The speech that Vladimir Putin gave on the eve of 588 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 1: the invasion um our long die tribe about how you know, 589 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: uh Ukraine is not even a real place and that 590 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 1: it's you know, Russia's lost property, would actually indicate a 591 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 1: worldview that is tipping on insane. I think that people 592 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 1: raising questions about how isolated he's become and how there's 593 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 1: nobody to check his power, And then you listen to 594 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: a speech like that, you really have to wonder if 595 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: if the person in charge of Russia's got all his 596 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 1: bolts screwed tightly down, that's a very dangerous situation for 597 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 1: obvious reasons. Here, Jeannie, do you do you think Vladimir 598 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 1: Putin has gone the way of Kim Jong Um? You know, 599 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 1: I think that's a real concern. I mean, we saw 600 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 1: on Russian TV which was quite astonishing him having this 601 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,440 Speaker 1: debate with his own top spy, which is quite unprecedented, 602 00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 1: and a lot of talk to your point about him 603 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 1: being isolated during COVID and not really having concerted conversations, 604 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,399 Speaker 1: and that is a very dangerous position to be in. 605 00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: And let's face it, now he has gone out and 606 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,840 Speaker 1: said he is going to do this. He's amassed these troops, 607 00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,399 Speaker 1: and he's done everything the US has said he had 608 00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 1: promised to do. Rick and Genie a great talk. I 609 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: was looking forward to it, Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis. 610 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 1: Our signature panel here Bloomberg Politics contributors here on sound 611 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,799 Speaker 1: On February is Black History Months. Every day this month 612 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 1: we're celebrating significant moments in US black history and our 613 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,040 Speaker 1: chance now to hear from Nita. Our installment for this Wednesday, 614 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,799 Speaker 1: the February, Here is Bloomberg's Nita Young on This day 615 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 1: in Black History. In nineteen seventy nine, Frankie Peterson Jr. 616 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 1: His name, the first black general in the U. S. 617 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 1: Marine Corps. He was determined to serve his country despite 618 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,680 Speaker 1: racial discrimination. Peterson first attempted to join the U. S. Navy, 619 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: but was asked to take the entrance exam over because 620 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:15,320 Speaker 1: administrators believed he had cheated. In nineteen fifty, Peterson enlisted 621 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 1: in the Navy, and two years later as a Marine, 622 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,360 Speaker 1: he completed flight school and was commissioned as a second lieutenant. 623 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 1: Peterson went on to become the Marines first black aviator 624 00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 1: and served as Commanding General for the Marine Corps Combat 625 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:31,800 Speaker 1: Development Command. Throughout his career, Peterson received several military awards, 626 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 1: among them the Navy Distinguished Service Medal, Defense Superior Service Medal, 627 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,279 Speaker 1: and the Purple Heart. So in n Peterson retired as 628 00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,960 Speaker 1: lieutenant general after serving as Special Assistant to the Chief 629 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 1: of Staff. That's today in black History. I'm reny to 630 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 1: young Bloomberg Radio. Ready to thank you and big thanks 631 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: as well to Brian O'Toole and Ambassador Daniel Freed along 632 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 1: with our panel, Rick and Jennie for a smart talk. 633 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 1: You won't hear these conversations anywhere else. I'll see it 634 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,840 Speaker 1: back here tomorrow. I'm Joe Matthew. 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