WEBVTT - 5. A Script for Nuclear War 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.960 This is Joseph Stalin giving a speech to Soviet citizens. 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:27.320 It's July third, nineteen forty one. In the months before 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:30.080 this speech, Hitler had lined up thousands of troops alongside 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:37.760 the Soviet border for some military exercises. Yet there's early 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.960 turns out they weren't just exercises. They were cover for 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.400 a surprise attack on the Soviet Union. 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:49.280 June twenty first, nineteen forty one, with treacherous assault, Germany 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:51.040 declares war on Soviet Russia. 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:57.279 The invasion was called Operation Barbarossa. It was brutal. It 0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:00.000 marked the beginning of the Soviet's four year long entanglement 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:04.360 in World War II. So great news the Nazis lost. 0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:06.520 I don't know if you heard, but the Soviet death 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.920 toll in World War two was staggering. Twenty five million 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:14.600 Soviet soldiers and civilians were lost. Stalin hadn't seen it coming. 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:18.240 Operation Barbarosa had caught him totally by surprise, and getting 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:22.280 caught unawares was utterly humiliating. His intelligence had failed him. 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:27.080 The embarrassment of Operation Barbarossa would plant a seed of 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:30.679 paranoia amongst the Soviets and decades later land them on 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.680 an inevitable crash course with NATO nuclear exercise able Archer 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:39.880 eighty three. If you go to therapy, as most of 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:44.199 us probably should, especially if you're anything like Stalin, you'll 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:48.160 recognize that this German sneak attack qualifies as a traumatic event. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.760 You think you know someone until they turn on you 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:55.120 and ravage your homeland. Textbook trauma, trauma that, if left unchecked, 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:57.520 could cause the Soviet Union to accuse the West of 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:59.840 treachery every time they did a military exercise, even though 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:02.000 it's it's really just an exercise. But you're too scared 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.440 to accept that because of your traumatic history with Germany, 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:10.360 who was totally a jeter. But no Soviet leaders to 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.240 my knowledge at least didn't go to therapy. Maybe their 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.639 insurance didn't cover it, I don't know. Instead, they stole 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:19.560 the sneak attack move for themselves. They began to use 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:23.320 military exercises as a cover for invasion. It's how they 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:26.480 invaded Czechoslovakia in the sixties, and the Russians would go 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:29.480 on to do the same thing in Crimea, Georgia and 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:33.760 even Ukraine in twenty twenty two. And they figured, if 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:37.480 it's something we would do, then of course the Americans 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:42.079 will do it too. You'd think the Americans would be all, hey, 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.919 maybe I'm not that guy. I know your last squeeze 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:48.280 did you wrong, but it's different between us. But instead 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:49.960 America is all. 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.720 They are the focus of evil in the modern world. 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:56.519 So let's just say when it comes to military exercises, 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:00.480 the Soviets didn't process their trauma, they didn't have healing. 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:05.680 They've got trust tissues and can you blame them? Now? 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:08.359 Fast forward to the Fall of eighty three, which, as 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:11.000 we all know, was a totally crazy year. 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.639 The aggressive impulses of an evil empire. 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.119 Shut down the Korean Airlines plane that death straight into 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:18.040 Soviet airspace. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:20.960 The army says that the Pershing two can fly up 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:23.160 to one thousand miles in under ten minutes. 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:24.760 Her name is Alex. 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:26.799 She works in a man's world. 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:31.080 She dances in a world of her dreams, flash dance. 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.600 Like I said, crazy year. I mean, who knew welders 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:41.240 could dance like that anyway. NATO is now preparing to 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:45.800 start a massive military exercise, culminating in Able Archer eighty three, 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:53.800 a rehearsal for nuclear war. What could go wrong? I'm 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.240 at helms and this is Snafu, a podcast about history's 0:03:57.320 --> 0:04:00.840 greatest screw ups, on season one, telling you the story 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:06.760 of a snafo that is gigantic, terrifying, and absurd. It's 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:10.000 called Able Archer eighty three, the nineteen eighty three NATO 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:15.760 military exercise that may have almost triggered a real nuclear war. 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.559 In this episode we get to it, the real deal, 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:30.760 the big Chabang Abel Archer itself, NATO practice is a 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.920 nuclear war. The Soviets reach their breaking point and one 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:36.880 man is faced with a cataclysmic decision. 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:44.120 We practiced who to shoot, when to shoot. 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.320 That was our job, was to practice going to war. 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:50.880 This is Brian Regal. He was a Cold War tank 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.599 driver and a former participant in NATO's massive annual military 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.080 wargame Autumn Forge, which can best be described as NATO's 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:01.080 dress rehearsal for World War three. And it would all 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:04.960 end with little old Able Archer eighty three. It was 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:08.400 all a coordinated effort. It's like, you know, the most 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:12.320 elaborate large scale production of West Side Story. 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:12.600 Ever. 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:16.880 Like West Side Story, Autumn Forge has two teams, but 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.840 instead of the Sharks and the Jets fighting over a 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:25.520 girl named Mario, Sorry, I just I love West Side 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.320 Story anyway. Instead of the Sharks and the Jets, Autumn 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:32.280 Forge has blue and orange. Blue team is NATO and 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:37.520 orange the Soviets. And just like a play, Autumn Forge 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:40.760 has a script. The script has different stages or acts, 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.279 if you will, as the drama of a fake war 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:47.320 plot unfolds. And let me be clear, NATO is very 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:51.960 serious about rehearsing this play. Opening day is tomorrow. The 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:55.120 actors are in full makeup and gas masks. I'm talking 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.440 tens of thousands of military men actively playing for tend 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:03.920 war in Western Germany. They're driving around in real tanks, 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:07.080 surveilling in real airplanes, setting up fake supply lines and 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:11.479 fake medical evacuations, because Brian says, it's essential that the 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:15.080 whole thing feels realistic so that NATO can find the 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:18.200 wrinkles in their war plan and fix it because next 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:20.640 time it might not be a rehearsal. 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:24.600 It wasn't a question of would it happen, It was 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:26.320 a question of when was it going to happen. 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.640 We were preparing to fight armageddon. 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:32.839 That's what we were told, That's what we believed, you know, 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:33.960 that's what we trained for. 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.640 We were training to fight the end of the world. 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:40.279 The problem with Autumn Forge's realism, of course, is that 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:43.600 each year the Soviets watched becoming more and more fearful. 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:47.480 They wondered, is this one an exercise or is this 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:50.719 the year when the exercise turns into a surprise attack. 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.600 So in nineteen eighty three, like every other year before, 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:00.120 the Soviets took their seats in the front row of 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:04.120 NATO's grand production of World War Three, and this year 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:06.599 they were in for one hell of a show. 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:10.080 Hello, I'm an Mulligan. Sergeant Richard real is standing by 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:11.840 at the AFN Autumn Forge News death. 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:15.480 Yeah. So they even made a fake newscast about it, 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:19.920 which might seem really bizarre, but it just goes to 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:22.880 show you how committed they were in producing this thing. 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.800 They really wanted it to feel real. Right now, there 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:28.840 was a shift in the battle lines. For the past 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:29.280 two days. 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:32.560 Orange Forces after crossing the Donau River, I've made steady 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:34.680 advances against the Blue Forces to the west. 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:39.600 Act one, Autumn Forge Orange invades West Germany. Of course, 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:42.240 the Soviets are the aggressors in our little war scenario here. 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.200 I mean, they are the evil empire after all, and 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:48.200 then Blue approaches the Iron Curtain to try to hold 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.960 off the aggressors. Yes, the invasion isn't real, but there 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:55.320 are real NATO tanks and very real guns marching right 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:58.840 up to Soviet territory here, and the Soviets are watching. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.560 The plot continues, Blue struggles against the might of the 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:04.520 Orange forces. 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.800 The Orange are and have been making penetration against the 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:08.560 Blue forces. 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.360 NATO is going to need some backup, which means now 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:15.440 it's time for act too. Sixteen thousand American troops board 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.800 planes in the United States flyover and are dropped right 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.640 into the Autumn Forge theater. These gis have flown twelve 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:25.680 hours from Fort Hood, Texas to take part in the 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:31.240 multinational maneuvers. Now, this phase of the exercise happened every year, 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:34.560 but this year NATO would make a change, a change 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.440 that would add just a dash of paranoia to what 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:43.160 was already a recipe for disaster. Over the course of 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.560 eight days, all these sixteen thousand troops were flown in 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:51.520 under total radio silence. This isn't the kind of silence 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:55.160 you get at a convention for mimes. I don't know, No, 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:58.640 this is radio silence, which is what the military does 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:01.760 when it's trying to avoid enemy's surveillance, and it made 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:07.000 the Soviets wonder what are they trying to hide. Meanwhile, 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.319 in the real world, the United States would make a 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.120 dramatic move, and the Soviets believed their worst fears were 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:14.439 being realized. 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.240 Corrupt our regularly scheduled program to bring you an NBC 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:19.120 News report. 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:20.440 Good afternoon, emby one. 0:09:20.480 --> 0:09:23.040 I'm Tom Broke, O NBC News in New York, and 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.559 here is the latest situation as we now know it 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.600 on the island of Grenada. It has been invaded by 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.680 a multi national force. The bulk of that force about 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.600 eighteen hundred American troops that includes Marie. 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:37.440 On October twenty third, nineteen eighty three, the United States 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:41.160 invaded the small island nation of Grenada, a tiny Caribbean 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:45.400 island but an important Soviet ally. Grenada had been ruled 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.199 by a communist government for years. It was going through 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:51.920 a violent power struggle when the United States invaded. Reagan 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:55.800 claimed he was just trying to help restore democracy, but 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:59.640 even US allies condemned the invasion, and the Soviets believed 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:04.679 it was proof of just how aggressive America could be. Meanwhile, 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:08.680 the autumn forged script continued to escalate. Orange attacks Blues 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:14.080 supply lines, Blue retaliates. Orange uses chemical weapons, not cool guys. 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:18.840 The invasion continues, and all of a sudden, according to 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:22.400 the script, there's nothing left to do but start launching 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:25.880 nuclear missiles. And that's what brings us to Act three, 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:36.760 Able Archer. You may wonder, like I did, where the 0:10:36.840 --> 0:10:40.239 name able Archer comes from. I'm so glad you asked. 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:42.400 I actually don't have an answer for you on that one. 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:44.800 But don't worry. I have something better because during our 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:47.280 research we discovered that while there is no known source 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:50.120 for the name Able Archer, there does exist a porn 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.160 actor named Abel Archer who stars in skin flicks such 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:56.440 as Reality Dudes and The Balls of Wall Street. 0:10:57.120 --> 0:11:00.840 Any You girls, or to a large with extra cream? 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.880 This is true, and yeah, apparently he didn't even know 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:05.920 about the wargame. He just came up with it all 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:06.440 on his own. 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:15.760 Anyway, it was a week just like every other week. 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:19.040 This is Jane Gay, a participant in Able Archer eighty three. 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:26.200 NATO headquarters is located in a village called Mons, Belgium. 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:31.120 Monstown Center looked like every classic European city all cobblestone 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:35.480 and Gothic architecture. But a few miles out there's NATO's 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:40.880 military headquarters, Stately Square Modern. That's where Gene and his 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.960 colleagues are as Act three, Able Archer kicks off in 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:45.959 early November. 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:51.560 The whole purpose of able Archer was the emphasis on 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.440 the practice of the nuclear weapons release for seizures. 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.320 Here's Colonel Spike Calendar, another VET who was also involved 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:01.680 in Able Archer that year. Now, a few different NATO 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.480 countries had nukes and they didn't need permission from their 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:07.280 pals to use them. But the whole idea of NATO 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.439 is that if the Soviets invaded one member, all NATO 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.920 countries would coordinate on a nuclear defense. You ever hear 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:17.560 the phrase big ships turn slowly. In nineteen eighty three, 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.760 there were sixteen NATO member nations, each with their own 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:24.000 languages and protocols. But when the fate of the world 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.800 hangs in the balance, NATO needed to be able to 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.080 turn that big ship fast. 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.319 The whole idea was, if you ever had to do it, 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:34.000 you didn't want to do it for the first time. 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:36.720 Here's how the whole thing is supposed to go down. 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.520 They forced things to happen to make you react to 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.440 it as if it was the real world situation. 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.360 The planners came up with an escalating war scenario and 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:49.800 the players are given a challenge. As the scenario escalates, 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.400 when will you step in and recommend the use of 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:56.199 nuclear weapons? Which nuclear weapons should we use? How many? 0:12:56.280 --> 0:13:00.240 And where is trusting use of twenty five years web? 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.240 The men reference their binders of war plans, come up 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:08.000 with a strategy, and rehearse the approval process for launching nukes. 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.960 When yeah, it reached a point where the yes that 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:15.760 the president of the Prime Minister agreed that these weapons 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.120 were required and then would give the in effect the 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.000 official release to it. 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:27.280 During the wargame, once our pretend president approves the fictional 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.920 nuclear launch, the Able Archer communications ricochet backed down the 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:33.800 chain of command, finally reaching the folks who launch the 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.560 fake nukes, which is exactly what it's like in the movies. 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.720 Two men sitting at opposite ends of a nuclear control room, 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:47.360 confirming the codes and simultaneously turning the launch keys. Now 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.559 Able Archer, compared to the rest of bottomn Forge, is 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:54.120 extremely pared down. No more helicopters and tanks, just men 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:57.240 in a bunker with phones. But even though there are 0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:00.839 fewer players and the stage is largely empty, this is 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:04.400 where the stakes are highest. I guess that's the thing 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.040 about nuclear wars. When it gets to that point, all 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:10.960 the thousands of troops and tanks and infrastructure just don't matter. 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:13.800 It all comes down to a few people in a 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.640 room letting the nukes do all the work. And this 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.720 year the Able Archer players had a few new weapons 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.760 on their nuclear menu, the Pershing twos and the ground 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:27.440 cruise missiles. The nukes that were scheduled for installation eminently, 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:38.160 the nukes that could obliterate Moscow in seven minutes. Now, 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.840 it's important to say that even though jene was practicing 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.800 nuclear war with the new euro missiles, they had not 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:47.760 yet been installed in Western Europe. That deployment date was 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.320 still a couple of weeks away. But the Soviets saw 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:54.880 deception everywhere, and as Able Archer kicked off, they feared 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:59.160 those missiles may already be in place. So the first 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:02.280 week of November nineteen eighty three, a few miles outside 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.920 the lovely town of Mons, Belgium, Gene Spike and their 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:09.640 colleagues filed into a bunker carrying binders full of nuclear 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:18.280 plans to hear their Able Archer war game challenge. Earlier 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:21.200 this year, communist hard liners in Moscow took over the Kremlin. 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.760 Since then the group has expanded their influence in Eastern 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.440 Europe and the Middle East. Now they have officially invaded 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:33.520 Western Europe. 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.600 So that was the kickoff, and that was my work 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:40.440 as I started out that week. 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:44.640 Which brings us to November fourth, nineteen eighty three. The 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:48.600 bunker deep inside NATO headquarters in Belgium is buzzing to life. 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:53.359 The communications machines are switched on the lines tested. 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.680 Exercise exercise exercise testing communications over. 0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:01.080 And the Able Archer planners begin performing the wargame script 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.960 over the airwaves. The script's plot is getting more and 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.920 more dire. Remember they're trying to lead the able larger 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:11.080 players towards a fake nuclear war, So the planners keep 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:12.320 escalating the narrative. 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.880 Exercise exercise exercise Orange has invaded Germany over. 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:22.800 And relaying all this drama on NATO's secure communications line. 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:27.600 But of course they had company. The Soviets had picked 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:28.320 up the signal. 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:33.520 Now all this time the communications are going backwards and forwards, 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:37.680 being listened into by the Soviets, who knew this was 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:39.080 an intended exercise. 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.320 Here's historian Taylor Downing. 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:44.200 And each signal was begun with the sort of three 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:49.400 words exercise, exercise, exercise, exercise. But the Soviet analyzes analyzing 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:51.960 the radio signals that are being picked up are starting 0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:55.080 at this point to get really quite anxious, and they're 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:59.800 now starting to think, is this actually a real NATO exercise? 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:02.360 Is this genuine or is it what they feared was 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:06.919 the Russian wood his Maskrovka deception? Is all this a 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.480 deception to delude us to the fact that NATO is 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:15.040 actually amassing its resources to prepare a nuclear assault. 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.280 Now, as you and I both know, NATO is absolutely 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.520 not planning a nuclear assault upon the Soviet Union. They 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:26.760 want to play the war game, learn their lessons, then 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:30.280 go catch flash dance or risky business. But the Soviets 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:34.240 don't know that. All they know is that under Operation Ryan, 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:38.320 intelligence from Soviet spies seems to keep supporting their assumption 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.359 that the West is definitely planning a nuclear attack. Also 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:46.640 this year, strangely, autumn forged troops flew in under total 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:52.200 radio silence, and the US just invaded Grenada. And now 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:56.280 what they're overhearing from the able archer war game is 0:17:56.320 --> 0:18:00.240 feeling kind of intense. So the Soviets were left one ring. 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:05.320 What is that Wiley Reagan really up to? Well, actually, 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:08.000 I would fucking love to tell you what Reagan was 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:11.280 up to on November fourth. I know because we checked 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:15.280 the presidential photo archives. While the Soviets were imagining Ronald 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:17.800 Reagan sitting in the Oval Office with a maniacal grin 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:21.000 on his face and nuclear plans spread across the resolute desk, 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:25.879 he was actually quite literally feeding acorns to squirrels on 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:27.040 the White House lawn. 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:31.360 Here you go, a little guy, here's a big one 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:32.359 for you. 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:33.760 God damn it, you're cute. 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:36.840 You seem like you've got it all together up in 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.560 your little tree. I've got a whole stash of these 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:44.080 in my desk, little buddy. Don't you worry, adorable presidential 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:49.520 respite or an insidious ruse. I'll say this for Reagan. 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.040 The guy contains multitudes. 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.000 Meanwhile, in London, it becomes clear to one double agent 0:18:56.320 --> 0:19:00.480 that the KGB is convinced a nuclear war is imminent, 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:05.359 so that there was. 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:09.520 A cable in the beginning warning the stations as the 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:15.040 American status and a very important exercise which can develop 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:16.160 to something sinister. 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:20.120 Here's our old pal, Oleg Gordievski. Remember he's a Western 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.080 spy pretending to be a loyal KGB spy who is 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.520 pretending to be a Russian diplomat. I mean, the guy's 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:29.640 a human nesting dog. Anyway. It's November fifth, nineteen eighty three. 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.600 Gordievski is sitting in the Soviet embassy in London when 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:37.119 he receives a telegram from Moscow. The telegram tells the 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:40.560 spies to keep close watch on the movements of British politicians. 0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:43.200 It says, since the US and the UK are such 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.480 close allies, surely the British will be involved in any 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:50.000 sudden nuclear attack, and so it literally tells them to 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:53.639 go hang out outside Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher's house and 0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:57.840 watch for any indication that the West has decided to attack, 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:01.639 because the telegram said once that decision was made, the 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:04.200 attack would be coming in seven to ten days. 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:10.160 I knew it was a dramatic moment. I knew Moscow 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:14.520 was nervous. 0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.480 November sixth is quiet. It's Sunday. The Lord rests and 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.200 all that, Ronald and Nancy Reagan wake up at Camp 0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:24.520 David and head back to DC. The night before, they 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:27.760 stayed up late watching The Wicked Lady starring Faye Dunaway. 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:29.360 The Wicked Later. 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:31.200 I'd like a dangerous entity. 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:34.159 You make a dangerous patna, Reagan writes about it in 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:41.639 this journal. Naturally, it was embarrassing, damn near pornographic. He 0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:44.720 doesn't even write out the word damn. He literally writes 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:48.760 d dash dash in Oh my God, what a dork. 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:52.000 But while Reagan is writing rotten tomatoes reviews in his 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:55.560 diary and feeding the squirrels, and Dropov isn't having such 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:56.160 a good time. 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:02.600 The seventh eighth and November is the anniversary of the 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:07.119 revolution in Russia back in nineteen seventeen, and this is 0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:09.920 a big public holiday in the Soviet Union. There was 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.040 always a big parade in Red Square. 0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:16.119 But Yuri and drop Off doesn't give a speech at 0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:19.840 the parade in Red Square as he ordinarily would. Instead, 0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:22.359 he lays in a hospital bed in a secure clinic 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:26.960 twenty kilometers outside of Moscow, dying of kidney failure. 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:31.760 All the roads to it were very heavily guarded. Nobody 0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:34.080 could get into it. You know, it was far away 0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:38.160 from prying eyes of reporters or dissidents or anybody else. 0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:41.280 It was completely surrounded by a ring of KGB security. 0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:44.600 All the other members of the Politbureau would come out 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.600 in their limousines to visit him. 0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:49.400 And never leaving. A drop Off side was the aid 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:53.240 who carries the Cheggott, the Soviets version of the nuclear football. 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:56.600 It's named after a mountain in Russia. I assume because 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:57.560 they don't play football. 0:21:58.119 --> 0:22:00.800 There was a feeling in Russia that if the West 0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:03.680 is going to attack, they'll probably attack while we're sort 0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:08.040 of off our guard, while we're relaxing, while we're on holiday. 0:22:08.960 --> 0:22:11.200 Now we don't know what happened in that hospital room, 0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:13.879 but here's what we do know. We know that and 0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:15.959 drop Off was dragged into World War II as a 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:19.960 young man when Operation Barbarossa traumatized the Soviet Union with 0:22:20.040 --> 0:22:24.720 a surprise attack under the ruse of military exercises. We 0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:27.439 know that he conceived of Operation Ryan to preempt a 0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:31.280 surprise nuclear attack from the West. We know Russians believed 0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:34.080 a surprise attack would come during a holiday, and we 0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:37.280 know that now during a holiday, and drop Off was 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:40.800 dying in a hospital bed with nuclear codes within reach, 0:22:41.359 --> 0:22:43.880 all while NATO rehearsed a nuclear war. 0:22:46.160 --> 0:22:48.879 It's impossible to know what thoughts go through a person 0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:53.080 when they're in that physical state, but it's difficult to 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:58.000 imagine that it didn't have some effect upon his mental outlook. 0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:00.520 Oh and one other thing. We all also know that 0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:03.760 if the Soviet leaders believed an attack was eminent, they 0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:08.120 had a policy to launch a preemptive strike to take 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:12.000 out enemy weapons before they were even launched. One can 0:23:12.040 --> 0:23:14.679 only wonder if what was really going on in that 0:23:14.760 --> 0:23:18.240 hospital room on November seventh was the Soviet leadership preparing 0:23:18.280 --> 0:23:20.359 a nuclear attack of their own. 0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:25.119 So obviously, as there was a lot of activity on 0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:25.800 the JERU. 0:23:25.840 --> 0:23:29.160 Say, this is Oleg Gordievski again back in London during 0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:33.159 able archer. He's talking about the GRU, the Soviet military's 0:23:33.200 --> 0:23:36.840 intelligence department. Now this is a little technical, but it's important, 0:23:36.880 --> 0:23:39.640 so let me break it down for you. The KGB, 0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:43.720 Oleg's employer, is the official intelligence organization for the Soviet Union, 0:23:43.920 --> 0:23:47.600 But the Soviet military had their own intelligence department called 0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:48.400 the GRU. 0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:52.480 It was their responsibility. It was their department which was 0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:56.760 responsible for their countermeageres and for monitoring what was happening 0:23:56.800 --> 0:23:58.200 in the nights of countries. 0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:01.399 So like, I don't know, oh, concerns that NATO is 0:24:01.400 --> 0:24:03.800 about to launch a bunch of nukes, that would be 0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:08.120 the primary concern of the GRU, not necessarily the KGB. 0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:11.800 The GRU also had a bunch of spies in London, 0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:15.439