Speaker 1: This is Joseph Stalin giving a speech to Soviet citizens.
Speaker 1: It's July third, nineteen forty one. In the months before
Speaker 1: this speech, Hitler had lined up thousands of troops alongside
Speaker 1: the Soviet border for some military exercises. Yet there's early
Speaker 1: turns out they weren't just exercises. They were cover for
Speaker 1: a surprise attack on the Soviet Union.
Speaker 2: June twenty first, nineteen forty one, with treacherous assault, Germany
Speaker 2: declares war on Soviet Russia.
Speaker 1: The invasion was called Operation Barbarossa. It was brutal. It
Speaker 1: marked the beginning of the Soviet's four year long entanglement
Speaker 1: in World War II. So great news the Nazis lost.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you heard, but the Soviet death
Speaker 1: toll in World War two was staggering. Twenty five million
Speaker 1: Soviet soldiers and civilians were lost. Stalin hadn't seen it coming.
Speaker 1: Operation Barbarosa had caught him totally by surprise, and getting
Speaker 1: caught unawares was utterly humiliating. His intelligence had failed him.
Speaker 1: The embarrassment of Operation Barbarossa would plant a seed of
Speaker 1: paranoia amongst the Soviets and decades later land them on
Speaker 1: an inevitable crash course with NATO nuclear exercise able Archer
Speaker 1: eighty three. If you go to therapy, as most of
Speaker 1: us probably should, especially if you're anything like Stalin, you'll
Speaker 1: recognize that this German sneak attack qualifies as a traumatic event.
Speaker 1: You think you know someone until they turn on you
Speaker 1: and ravage your homeland. Textbook trauma, trauma that, if left unchecked,
Speaker 1: could cause the Soviet Union to accuse the West of
Speaker 1: treachery every time they did a military exercise, even though
Speaker 1: it's it's really just an exercise. But you're too scared
Speaker 1: to accept that because of your traumatic history with Germany,
Speaker 1: who was totally a jeter. But no Soviet leaders to
Speaker 1: my knowledge at least didn't go to therapy. Maybe their
Speaker 1: insurance didn't cover it, I don't know. Instead, they stole
Speaker 1: the sneak attack move for themselves. They began to use
Speaker 1: military exercises as a cover for invasion. It's how they
Speaker 1: invaded Czechoslovakia in the sixties, and the Russians would go
Speaker 1: on to do the same thing in Crimea, Georgia and
Speaker 1: even Ukraine in twenty twenty two. And they figured, if
Speaker 1: it's something we would do, then of course the Americans
Speaker 1: will do it too. You'd think the Americans would be all, hey,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm not that guy. I know your last squeeze
Speaker 1: did you wrong, but it's different between us. But instead
Speaker 1: America is all.
Speaker 3: They are the focus of evil in the modern world.
Speaker 1: So let's just say when it comes to military exercises,
Speaker 1: the Soviets didn't process their trauma, they didn't have healing.
Speaker 1: They've got trust tissues and can you blame them? Now?
Speaker 1: Fast forward to the Fall of eighty three, which, as
Speaker 1: we all know, was a totally crazy year.
Speaker 3: The aggressive impulses of an evil empire.
Speaker 4: Shut down the Korean Airlines plane that death straight into
Speaker 4: Soviet airspace.
Speaker 1: The army says that the Pershing two can fly up
Speaker 1: to one thousand miles in under ten minutes.
Speaker 5: Her name is Alex.
Speaker 1: She works in a man's world.
Speaker 3: She dances in a world of her dreams, flash dance.
Speaker 1: Like I said, crazy year. I mean, who knew welders
Speaker 1: could dance like that anyway. NATO is now preparing to
Speaker 1: start a massive military exercise, culminating in Able Archer eighty three,
Speaker 1: a rehearsal for nuclear war. What could go wrong? I'm
Speaker 1: at helms and this is Snafu, a podcast about history's
Speaker 1: greatest screw ups, on season one, telling you the story
Speaker 1: of a snafo that is gigantic, terrifying, and absurd. It's
Speaker 1: called Able Archer eighty three, the nineteen eighty three NATO
Speaker 1: military exercise that may have almost triggered a real nuclear war.
Speaker 1: In this episode we get to it, the real deal,
Speaker 1: the big Chabang Abel Archer itself, NATO practice is a
Speaker 1: nuclear war. The Soviets reach their breaking point and one
Speaker 1: man is faced with a cataclysmic decision.
Speaker 6: We practiced who to shoot, when to shoot.
Speaker 1: That was our job, was to practice going to war.
Speaker 1: This is Brian Regal. He was a Cold War tank
Speaker 1: driver and a former participant in NATO's massive annual military
Speaker 1: wargame Autumn Forge, which can best be described as NATO's
Speaker 1: dress rehearsal for World War three. And it would all
Speaker 1: end with little old Able Archer eighty three. It was
Speaker 1: all a coordinated effort. It's like, you know, the most
Speaker 1: elaborate large scale production of West Side Story.
Speaker 2: Ever.
Speaker 1: Like West Side Story, Autumn Forge has two teams, but
Speaker 1: instead of the Sharks and the Jets fighting over a
Speaker 1: girl named Mario, Sorry, I just I love West Side
Speaker 1: Story anyway. Instead of the Sharks and the Jets, Autumn
Speaker 1: Forge has blue and orange. Blue team is NATO and
Speaker 1: orange the Soviets. And just like a play, Autumn Forge
Speaker 1: has a script. The script has different stages or acts,
Speaker 1: if you will, as the drama of a fake war
Speaker 1: plot unfolds. And let me be clear, NATO is very
Speaker 1: serious about rehearsing this play. Opening day is tomorrow. The
Speaker 1: actors are in full makeup and gas masks. I'm talking
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of military men actively playing for tend
Speaker 1: war in Western Germany. They're driving around in real tanks,
Speaker 1: surveilling in real airplanes, setting up fake supply lines and
Speaker 1: fake medical evacuations, because Brian says, it's essential that the
Speaker 1: whole thing feels realistic so that NATO can find the
Speaker 1: wrinkles in their war plan and fix it because next
Speaker 1: time it might not be a rehearsal.
Speaker 7: It wasn't a question of would it happen, It was
Speaker 7: a question of when was it going to happen.
Speaker 1: We were preparing to fight armageddon.
Speaker 6: That's what we were told, That's what we believed, you know,
Speaker 6: that's what we trained for.
Speaker 1: We were training to fight the end of the world.
Speaker 1: The problem with Autumn Forge's realism, of course, is that
Speaker 1: each year the Soviets watched becoming more and more fearful.
Speaker 1: They wondered, is this one an exercise or is this
Speaker 1: the year when the exercise turns into a surprise attack.
Speaker 1: So in nineteen eighty three, like every other year before,
Speaker 1: the Soviets took their seats in the front row of
Speaker 1: NATO's grand production of World War Three, and this year
Speaker 1: they were in for one hell of a show.
Speaker 2: Hello, I'm an Mulligan. Sergeant Richard real is standing by
Speaker 2: at the AFN Autumn Forge News death.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So they even made a fake newscast about it,
Speaker 1: which might seem really bizarre, but it just goes to
Speaker 1: show you how committed they were in producing this thing.
Speaker 1: They really wanted it to feel real. Right now, there
Speaker 1: was a shift in the battle lines. For the past
Speaker 1: two days.
Speaker 2: Orange Forces after crossing the Donau River, I've made steady
Speaker 2: advances against the Blue Forces to the west.
Speaker 1: Act one, Autumn Forge Orange invades West Germany. Of course,
Speaker 1: the Soviets are the aggressors in our little war scenario here.
Speaker 1: I mean, they are the evil empire after all, and
Speaker 1: then Blue approaches the Iron Curtain to try to hold
Speaker 1: off the aggressors. Yes, the invasion isn't real, but there
Speaker 1: are real NATO tanks and very real guns marching right
Speaker 1: up to Soviet territory here, and the Soviets are watching.
Speaker 1: The plot continues, Blue struggles against the might of the
Speaker 1: Orange forces.
Speaker 2: The Orange are and have been making penetration against the
Speaker 2: Blue forces.
Speaker 1: NATO is going to need some backup, which means now
Speaker 1: it's time for act too. Sixteen thousand American troops board
Speaker 1: planes in the United States flyover and are dropped right
Speaker 1: into the Autumn Forge theater. These gis have flown twelve
Speaker 1: hours from Fort Hood, Texas to take part in the
Speaker 1: multinational maneuvers. Now, this phase of the exercise happened every year,
Speaker 1: but this year NATO would make a change, a change
Speaker 1: that would add just a dash of paranoia to what
Speaker 1: was already a recipe for disaster. Over the course of
Speaker 1: eight days, all these sixteen thousand troops were flown in
Speaker 1: under total radio silence. This isn't the kind of silence
Speaker 1: you get at a convention for mimes. I don't know, No,
Speaker 1: this is radio silence, which is what the military does
Speaker 1: when it's trying to avoid enemy's surveillance, and it made
Speaker 1: the Soviets wonder what are they trying to hide. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: in the real world, the United States would make a
Speaker 1: dramatic move, and the Soviets believed their worst fears were
Speaker 1: being realized.
Speaker 2: Corrupt our regularly scheduled program to bring you an NBC
Speaker 2: News report.
Speaker 1: Good afternoon, emby one.
Speaker 2: I'm Tom Broke, O NBC News in New York, and
Speaker 2: here is the latest situation as we now know it
Speaker 2: on the island of Grenada. It has been invaded by
Speaker 2: a multi national force. The bulk of that force about
Speaker 2: eighteen hundred American troops that includes Marie.
Speaker 1: On October twenty third, nineteen eighty three, the United States
Speaker 1: invaded the small island nation of Grenada, a tiny Caribbean
Speaker 1: island but an important Soviet ally. Grenada had been ruled
Speaker 1: by a communist government for years. It was going through
Speaker 1: a violent power struggle when the United States invaded. Reagan
Speaker 1: claimed he was just trying to help restore democracy, but
Speaker 1: even US allies condemned the invasion, and the Soviets believed
Speaker 1: it was proof of just how aggressive America could be. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the autumn forged script continued to escalate. Orange attacks Blues
Speaker 1: supply lines, Blue retaliates. Orange uses chemical weapons, not cool guys.
Speaker 1: The invasion continues, and all of a sudden, according to
Speaker 1: the script, there's nothing left to do but start launching
Speaker 1: nuclear missiles. And that's what brings us to Act three,
Speaker 1: Able Archer. You may wonder, like I did, where the
Speaker 1: name able Archer comes from. I'm so glad you asked.
Speaker 1: I actually don't have an answer for you on that one.
Speaker 1: But don't worry. I have something better because during our
Speaker 1: research we discovered that while there is no known source
Speaker 1: for the name Able Archer, there does exist a porn
Speaker 1: actor named Abel Archer who stars in skin flicks such
Speaker 1: as Reality Dudes and The Balls of Wall Street.
Speaker 6: Any You girls, or to a large with extra cream?
Speaker 1: This is true, and yeah, apparently he didn't even know
Speaker 1: about the wargame. He just came up with it all
Speaker 1: on his own.
Speaker 8: Anyway, it was a week just like every other week.
Speaker 1: This is Jane Gay, a participant in Able Archer eighty three.
Speaker 8: NATO headquarters is located in a village called Mons, Belgium.
Speaker 1: Monstown Center looked like every classic European city all cobblestone
Speaker 1: and Gothic architecture. But a few miles out there's NATO's
Speaker 1: military headquarters, Stately Square Modern. That's where Gene and his
Speaker 1: colleagues are as Act three, Able Archer kicks off in
Speaker 1: early November.
Speaker 9: The whole purpose of able Archer was the emphasis on
Speaker 9: the practice of the nuclear weapons release for seizures.
Speaker 1: Here's Colonel Spike Calendar, another VET who was also involved
Speaker 1: in Able Archer that year. Now, a few different NATO
Speaker 1: countries had nukes and they didn't need permission from their
Speaker 1: pals to use them. But the whole idea of NATO
Speaker 1: is that if the Soviets invaded one member, all NATO
Speaker 1: countries would coordinate on a nuclear defense. You ever hear
Speaker 1: the phrase big ships turn slowly. In nineteen eighty three,
Speaker 1: there were sixteen NATO member nations, each with their own
Speaker 1: languages and protocols. But when the fate of the world
Speaker 1: hangs in the balance, NATO needed to be able to
Speaker 1: turn that big ship fast.
Speaker 9: The whole idea was, if you ever had to do it,
Speaker 9: you didn't want to do it for the first time.
Speaker 1: Here's how the whole thing is supposed to go down.
Speaker 8: They forced things to happen to make you react to
Speaker 8: it as if it was the real world situation.
Speaker 1: The planners came up with an escalating war scenario and
Speaker 1: the players are given a challenge. As the scenario escalates,
Speaker 1: when will you step in and recommend the use of
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons? Which nuclear weapons should we use? How many?
Speaker 1: And where is trusting use of twenty five years web?
Speaker 1: The men reference their binders of war plans, come up
Speaker 1: with a strategy, and rehearse the approval process for launching nukes.
Speaker 9: When yeah, it reached a point where the yes that
Speaker 9: the president of the Prime Minister agreed that these weapons
Speaker 9: were required and then would give the in effect the
Speaker 9: official release to it.
Speaker 1: During the wargame, once our pretend president approves the fictional
Speaker 1: nuclear launch, the Able Archer communications ricochet backed down the
Speaker 1: chain of command, finally reaching the folks who launch the
Speaker 1: fake nukes, which is exactly what it's like in the movies.
Speaker 1: Two men sitting at opposite ends of a nuclear control room,
Speaker 1: confirming the codes and simultaneously turning the launch keys. Now
Speaker 1: Able Archer, compared to the rest of bottomn Forge, is
Speaker 1: extremely pared down. No more helicopters and tanks, just men
Speaker 1: in a bunker with phones. But even though there are
Speaker 1: fewer players and the stage is largely empty, this is
Speaker 1: where the stakes are highest. I guess that's the thing
Speaker 1: about nuclear wars. When it gets to that point, all
Speaker 1: the thousands of troops and tanks and infrastructure just don't matter.
Speaker 1: It all comes down to a few people in a
Speaker 1: room letting the nukes do all the work. And this
Speaker 1: year the Able Archer players had a few new weapons
Speaker 1: on their nuclear menu, the Pershing twos and the ground
Speaker 1: cruise missiles. The nukes that were scheduled for installation eminently,
Speaker 1: the nukes that could obliterate Moscow in seven minutes. Now,
Speaker 1: it's important to say that even though jene was practicing
Speaker 1: nuclear war with the new euro missiles, they had not
Speaker 1: yet been installed in Western Europe. That deployment date was
Speaker 1: still a couple of weeks away. But the Soviets saw
Speaker 1: deception everywhere, and as Able Archer kicked off, they feared
Speaker 1: those missiles may already be in place. So the first
Speaker 1: week of November nineteen eighty three, a few miles outside
Speaker 1: the lovely town of Mons, Belgium, Gene Spike and their
Speaker 1: colleagues filed into a bunker carrying binders full of nuclear
Speaker 1: plans to hear their Able Archer war game challenge. Earlier
Speaker 1: this year, communist hard liners in Moscow took over the Kremlin.
Speaker 1: Since then the group has expanded their influence in Eastern
Speaker 1: Europe and the Middle East. Now they have officially invaded
Speaker 1: Western Europe.
Speaker 8: So that was the kickoff, and that was my work
Speaker 8: as I started out that week.
Speaker 1: Which brings us to November fourth, nineteen eighty three. The
Speaker 1: bunker deep inside NATO headquarters in Belgium is buzzing to life.
Speaker 1: The communications machines are switched on the lines tested.
Speaker 4: Exercise exercise exercise testing communications over.
Speaker 1: And the Able Archer planners begin performing the wargame script
Speaker 1: over the airwaves. The script's plot is getting more and
Speaker 1: more dire. Remember they're trying to lead the able larger
Speaker 1: players towards a fake nuclear war, So the planners keep
Speaker 1: escalating the narrative.
Speaker 4: Exercise exercise exercise Orange has invaded Germany over.
Speaker 1: And relaying all this drama on NATO's secure communications line.
Speaker 1: But of course they had company. The Soviets had picked
Speaker 1: up the signal.
Speaker 10: Now all this time the communications are going backwards and forwards,
Speaker 10: being listened into by the Soviets, who knew this was
Speaker 10: an intended exercise.
Speaker 1: Here's historian Taylor Downing.
Speaker 10: And each signal was begun with the sort of three
Speaker 10: words exercise, exercise, exercise, exercise. But the Soviet analyzes analyzing
Speaker 10: the radio signals that are being picked up are starting
Speaker 10: at this point to get really quite anxious, and they're
Speaker 10: now starting to think, is this actually a real NATO exercise?
Speaker 10: Is this genuine or is it what they feared was
Speaker 10: the Russian wood his Maskrovka deception? Is all this a
Speaker 10: deception to delude us to the fact that NATO is
Speaker 10: actually amassing its resources to prepare a nuclear assault.
Speaker 1: Now, as you and I both know, NATO is absolutely
Speaker 1: not planning a nuclear assault upon the Soviet Union. They
Speaker 1: want to play the war game, learn their lessons, then
Speaker 1: go catch flash dance or risky business. But the Soviets
Speaker 1: don't know that. All they know is that under Operation Ryan,
Speaker 1: intelligence from Soviet spies seems to keep supporting their assumption
Speaker 1: that the West is definitely planning a nuclear attack. Also
Speaker 1: this year, strangely, autumn forged troops flew in under total
Speaker 1: radio silence, and the US just invaded Grenada. And now
Speaker 1: what they're overhearing from the able archer war game is
Speaker 1: feeling kind of intense. So the Soviets were left one ring.
Speaker 1: What is that Wiley Reagan really up to? Well, actually,
Speaker 1: I would fucking love to tell you what Reagan was
Speaker 1: up to on November fourth. I know because we checked
Speaker 1: the presidential photo archives. While the Soviets were imagining Ronald
Speaker 1: Reagan sitting in the Oval Office with a maniacal grin
Speaker 1: on his face and nuclear plans spread across the resolute desk,
Speaker 1: he was actually quite literally feeding acorns to squirrels on
Speaker 1: the White House lawn.
Speaker 7: Here you go, a little guy, here's a big one
Speaker 7: for you.
Speaker 1: God damn it, you're cute.
Speaker 7: You seem like you've got it all together up in
Speaker 7: your little tree. I've got a whole stash of these
Speaker 7: in my desk, little buddy. Don't you worry, adorable presidential
Speaker 7: respite or an insidious ruse. I'll say this for Reagan.
Speaker 7: The guy contains multitudes.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, in London, it becomes clear to one double agent
Speaker 1: that the KGB is convinced a nuclear war is imminent,
Speaker 1: so that there was.
Speaker 5: A cable in the beginning warning the stations as the
Speaker 5: American status and a very important exercise which can develop
Speaker 5: to something sinister.
Speaker 1: Here's our old pal, Oleg Gordievski. Remember he's a Western
Speaker 1: spy pretending to be a loyal KGB spy who is
Speaker 1: pretending to be a Russian diplomat. I mean, the guy's
Speaker 1: a human nesting dog. Anyway. It's November fifth, nineteen eighty three.
Speaker 1: Gordievski is sitting in the Soviet embassy in London when
Speaker 1: he receives a telegram from Moscow. The telegram tells the
Speaker 1: spies to keep close watch on the movements of British politicians.
Speaker 1: It says, since the US and the UK are such
Speaker 1: close allies, surely the British will be involved in any
Speaker 1: sudden nuclear attack, and so it literally tells them to
Speaker 1: go hang out outside Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher's house and
Speaker 1: watch for any indication that the West has decided to attack,
Speaker 1: because the telegram said once that decision was made, the
Speaker 1: attack would be coming in seven to ten days.
Speaker 5: I knew it was a dramatic moment. I knew Moscow
Speaker 5: was nervous.
Speaker 1: November sixth is quiet. It's Sunday. The Lord rests and
Speaker 1: all that, Ronald and Nancy Reagan wake up at Camp
Speaker 1: David and head back to DC. The night before, they
Speaker 1: stayed up late watching The Wicked Lady starring Faye Dunaway.
Speaker 1: The Wicked Later.
Speaker 2: I'd like a dangerous entity.
Speaker 1: You make a dangerous patna, Reagan writes about it in
Speaker 1: this journal. Naturally, it was embarrassing, damn near pornographic. He
Speaker 1: doesn't even write out the word damn. He literally writes
Speaker 1: d dash dash in Oh my God, what a dork.
Speaker 1: But while Reagan is writing rotten tomatoes reviews in his
Speaker 1: diary and feeding the squirrels, and Dropov isn't having such
Speaker 1: a good time.
Speaker 10: The seventh eighth and November is the anniversary of the
Speaker 10: revolution in Russia back in nineteen seventeen, and this is
Speaker 10: a big public holiday in the Soviet Union. There was
Speaker 10: always a big parade in Red Square.
Speaker 1: But Yuri and drop Off doesn't give a speech at
Speaker 1: the parade in Red Square as he ordinarily would. Instead,
Speaker 1: he lays in a hospital bed in a secure clinic
Speaker 1: twenty kilometers outside of Moscow, dying of kidney failure.
Speaker 10: All the roads to it were very heavily guarded. Nobody
Speaker 10: could get into it. You know, it was far away
Speaker 10: from prying eyes of reporters or dissidents or anybody else.
Speaker 10: It was completely surrounded by a ring of KGB security.
Speaker 10: All the other members of the Politbureau would come out
Speaker 10: in their limousines to visit him.
Speaker 1: And never leaving. A drop Off side was the aid
Speaker 1: who carries the Cheggott, the Soviets version of the nuclear football.
Speaker 1: It's named after a mountain in Russia. I assume because
Speaker 1: they don't play football.
Speaker 10: There was a feeling in Russia that if the West
Speaker 10: is going to attack, they'll probably attack while we're sort
Speaker 10: of off our guard, while we're relaxing, while we're on holiday.
Speaker 1: Now we don't know what happened in that hospital room,
Speaker 1: but here's what we do know. We know that and
Speaker 1: drop Off was dragged into World War II as a
Speaker 1: young man when Operation Barbarossa traumatized the Soviet Union with
Speaker 1: a surprise attack under the ruse of military exercises. We
Speaker 1: know that he conceived of Operation Ryan to preempt a
Speaker 1: surprise nuclear attack from the West. We know Russians believed
Speaker 1: a surprise attack would come during a holiday, and we
Speaker 1: know that now during a holiday, and drop Off was
Speaker 1: dying in a hospital bed with nuclear codes within reach,
Speaker 1: all while NATO rehearsed a nuclear war.
Speaker 10: It's impossible to know what thoughts go through a person
Speaker 10: when they're in that physical state, but it's difficult to
Speaker 10: imagine that it didn't have some effect upon his mental outlook.
Speaker 1: Oh and one other thing. We all also know that
Speaker 1: if the Soviet leaders believed an attack was eminent, they
Speaker 1: had a policy to launch a preemptive strike to take
Speaker 1: out enemy weapons before they were even launched. One can
Speaker 1: only wonder if what was really going on in that
Speaker 1: hospital room on November seventh was the Soviet leadership preparing
Speaker 1: a nuclear attack of their own.
Speaker 5: So obviously, as there was a lot of activity on
Speaker 5: the JERU.
Speaker 1: Say, this is Oleg Gordievski again back in London during
Speaker 1: able archer. He's talking about the GRU, the Soviet military's
Speaker 1: intelligence department. Now this is a little technical, but it's important,
Speaker 1: so let me break it down for you. The KGB,
Speaker 1: Oleg's employer, is the official intelligence organization for the Soviet Union,
Speaker 1: But the Soviet military had their own intelligence department called
Speaker 1: the GRU.
Speaker 5: It was their responsibility. It was their department which was
Speaker 5: responsible for their countermeageres and for monitoring what was happening
Speaker 5: in the nights of countries.
Speaker 1: So like, I don't know, oh, concerns that NATO is
Speaker 1: about to launch a bunch of nukes, that would be
Speaker 1: the primary concern of the GRU, not necessarily the KGB.
Speaker 1: The GRU also had a bunch of spies in London,
Speaker 1: also posing in the embassy as Russian diplomats, and Gordiovski
Speaker 1: remembers that during Able Archer eighty three, those GRU guys
Speaker 1: were looking pretty stressed out.
Speaker 5: I remember that we were sitting on the loft of
Speaker 5: the embassy and they were sitting in the basement, and
Speaker 5: they were sitting like mice day and night during the
Speaker 5: able Archer exercise.
Speaker 1: One reason Grdiovsky could tell the GRU was busier than
Speaker 1: usual is because all of them were skipping the mandatory
Speaker 1: morning meetings with the Russian ambassador.
Speaker 5: In those days of able arch none of them, to
Speaker 5: the irritation of the ambassador, was present.
Speaker 1: For example, the head of the GRU station in London
Speaker 1: was a man by the name of Yezhov.
Speaker 5: People after the because Yezov Heitchhock, as he looks like.
Speaker 1: Heitchcock, always with the sick burn. Here's Gordo, He cracks
Speaker 1: me up. Anyway, She was sitting in a city all
Speaker 1: the time, as the papers, Gordievsky says it was unusual
Speaker 1: for the hedgehog to be head down buried in papers.
Speaker 1: It was clear to him that something was happening that
Speaker 1: was very important to the GRU. Gordievski also says that
Speaker 1: the GRU had a signal station in a building opposite
Speaker 1: the embassy across Kensington Palace gardens. There a GRU radio
Speaker 1: communicator would intercept signals like military communications.
Speaker 5: And he was coming from that building, crossing the roads quickly,
Speaker 5: and in the embassy and down to the basement.
Speaker 1: Gordievski watched this poor guy run back and forth all
Speaker 1: week long, and listen, when you're a top secret GRU spy,
Speaker 1: you don't leave yourself vulnerable to being seen or followed.
Speaker 1: So whatever was happening, it must have been urgent. And
Speaker 1: back in Belgium, well, the temperature was going up there too.
Speaker 10: The Warsaw Pact started to use chemical weapons.
Speaker 1: That's Tailor Downing again, talking about the Able Archer script.
Speaker 1: It's November seventh.
Speaker 10: And the planners decided they had no alternative but to
Speaker 10: respond by NATO forces using chemical weapons.
Speaker 1: Remember we're talking fake chemical weapons here.
Speaker 10: Then on Monday, the seventh of November, in the script,
Speaker 10: the warsaw pac to taking out various NATO command posts.
Speaker 10: For instance, the US Air Force Command Center at Ramstein
Speaker 10: in West Germany is in the script destroyed.
Speaker 4: Exercise Exercise Exercise Orange is undeterred by Blues use of
Speaker 4: chemical weapons. Oranges attack Ramstem with chemical weapons. Boo, what's
Speaker 4: your move?
Speaker 10: The planners, sitting around their tables and looking at the
Speaker 10: maps on the wall, have to decide how to respond.
Speaker 10: Then at this point they begin to think about a
Speaker 10: nuclear execution plan, and on Tuesday, the eighth of November,
Speaker 10: NATO decides that the only way it can respond is
Speaker 10: with a nuclear response, and the planners start working out
Speaker 10: how many megatons of bombs they need to request the
Speaker 10: un of which key targets across the Soviet Union will
Speaker 10: be targeted.
Speaker 8: Part of my role during this time was to integrate
Speaker 8: the new weapons into the NATO arsenal and operational plans.
Speaker 1: That'd be our man Gene.
Speaker 8: And then these new weapons include the ground launched cruise
Speaker 8: missile which were being deployed into a NATO military basis
Speaker 8: across Europe as well as the improved US Army pershing
Speaker 8: two missiles.
Speaker 1: Over in London. Some poor gru bastard is listening closely
Speaker 1: to able Archer communications prepared to spreads across Kensington Gardens
Speaker 1: to the Russian embassy and deliver messages to Soviet military intelligence.
Speaker 1: And then within able Archer Blue comes up with their
Speaker 1: next move. They're going to hit Orange with a nuclear strike.
Speaker 10: And now they do something that nature had never done
Speaker 10: before in this regular exercise. They change the codes that
Speaker 10: they're using.
Speaker 4: Diable Archer Able Archer Blue is requesting use of twenty
Speaker 4: five nuclear missiles for use on Orange targets. Please look
Speaker 4: for presidential approval.
Speaker 1: The Soviet guy listening must have been like, they didn't
Speaker 1: say exercise, exercise, exercise. They didn't say it. They didn't
Speaker 1: say exercise.
Speaker 10: And suddenly this change of code now is the final straw.
Speaker 10: The fact they're changing the codes, which they hadn't done before,
Speaker 10: clearly signified to the Soviets that this wasn't just a wargame,
Speaker 10: wasn't just an exercise, but this was a real preparation
Speaker 10: for the launch of nuclear weapons. And the KGB Center
Speaker 10: hearing these reports of NATO mobilizing to prepare to defend itself,
Speaker 10: starts sending out increasingly urgent messages to its residencies abroad
Speaker 10: to tell its agents to look for imminent signs of
Speaker 10: nuclear warfare. You must look for even the slightest hints
Speaker 10: that missiles are being readied.
Speaker 1: Let's check back in with Comrade Gordievski.
Speaker 5: Well, it was a flash telegram. It was an super
Speaker 5: urgent telegram.
Speaker 1: On November eighth or ninth, he can't remember which ole,
Speaker 1: Gordievski received a flash telegram from the KGB center.
Speaker 5: Saying the Americans so now in the middle of their exercise,
Speaker 5: so be ready for everything and watch thorodly because they
Speaker 5: know what may happen.
Speaker 1: Next, the telegram claimed that American bases had been placed
Speaker 1: on high alert. Now that was not true. American bases
Speaker 1: were not on high alert. They had just tightened up
Speaker 1: security in reaction to a recent bombing in Lebanon, but
Speaker 1: the KGB does not know this. The telegram states that
Speaker 1: one explanation for this high alert is that quote the
Speaker 1: countdown to a nuclear first strike had begun under the
Speaker 1: cover of able archer their allies.
Speaker 5: It was more panic and he stated than Emma.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, President Reagan and the First Lady packed their bags
Speaker 1: at the White House, preparing to leave DC for a
Speaker 1: little trip.
Speaker 3: Well in a few moments. As you know, Nancy and
Speaker 3: I'll be bored, Marine want to begin the first leg
Speaker 3: of our trip to Japan and Korea.
Speaker 1: Naturally, their cameras pointed at him, so of course he
Speaker 1: can't leave without a little Soviet jab.
Speaker 3: The Soviet shooting down of Kamla seven, their continued military
Speaker 3: build up in Asia are grim reminders to us that
Speaker 3: we live in a dangerous world. I will reaffirm America's
Speaker 3: commitment to remain a reliable partner for peace and stability
Speaker 3: in the region and in the world. And that's the
Speaker 3: spirit of our trip.
Speaker 1: Moments later, Reagan boarded the helicopter, his aid a few
Speaker 1: paces by behind him, carrying the nuclear football and what's
Speaker 1: in drop off supposed to make of all? This was
Speaker 1: Reagan priming the public, reminding them how evil the Soviets are,
Speaker 1: before he cracked open that briefcase and blew them all
Speaker 1: to smithereens Now a little while later, over in Belgium,
Speaker 1: the able Archer players receive a pretend message that the
Speaker 1: pretend President has approved the use of pretend nuclear missiles
Speaker 1: not real ones. Guys. I know you get it by now.
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to be perfectly clear, and to be fair,
Speaker 1: the Soviets don't get it. They're on the able archer
Speaker 1: line and all they hear is able.
Speaker 4: Archer, able archer use of nuclear weapons is approved, and.
Speaker 10: It's around this time that the Soviets start mobilizing their
Speaker 10: entire nuclear arsenal.
Speaker 1: Soviet leaders had a fateful decision to make, and they
Speaker 1: needed to make it fast. If NATO is in fact
Speaker 1: launching nuclear weapons, the Soviets would need to launch their
Speaker 1: own urgently. If they didn't, their missiles could be taken
Speaker 1: out in the first wave of the American attack. But
Speaker 1: if they hit the button and they're wrong, then they've
Speaker 1: started a war and ended the world as we know it.
Speaker 10: The whole crisis comes to a head really on the
Speaker 10: evening of Wednesday, the ninth of November nineteen eighty three.
Speaker 1: That night, in the middle of holiday celebrations across the
Speaker 1: Soviet Union, military officials received phone calls party time is over.
Speaker 1: They were needed back at work urgently.
Speaker 10: A lot of the Soviets who were mobilized in this
Speaker 10: nuclear operation, they remember that twenty four hour shift that
Speaker 10: they were on, very very clearly as being the most
Speaker 10: anxious point of their career.
Speaker 1: The Soviet military went on a state of nuclear alert
Speaker 1: unlike anything before. And this this is not a rehearsal,
Speaker 1: my friends, this was real.
Speaker 10: Thousands of warheads were mobilized and prepared to launch nuclear weapons.
Speaker 10: That is, ascent to their battle stations. Each of these
Speaker 10: ICBMs has well the average was about six warheads, each
Speaker 10: war head with something like forty times the destructive capability
Speaker 10: of a Hiroshima bomb.
Speaker 1: Commanders who manned the Soviet's nuclear missiles were told to
Speaker 1: stand by and await launch instructions that could be coming
Speaker 1: any time in the next few hours.
Speaker 10: The Soviet leadership stayed up anxiously waiting for signs that
Speaker 10: the Americans had in fact launched an attack and prepared
Speaker 10: to retaliate in a full scale nuclear assault upon Western
Speaker 10: Europe and North America. And they sent out a message
Speaker 10: effectively saying, you know, are these guys about to attack us?
Speaker 10: Are they about to launch nuclear weapons?
Speaker 11: The courier at first brought me the message.
Speaker 1: This is ryaner Rup again aka Agent Topaz. He's in
Speaker 1: Brussels at his job in NATO, where he's working undercover
Speaker 1: for the East German Stazi, a close partner of the KGB.
Speaker 1: It's November ninth, nineteen eighty three when he receives an
Speaker 1: urgent message from a Stazi.
Speaker 11: Courier Hilers, the Russians are really scared. Day one and
Speaker 11: away everything any NATO is preparing for war and son.
Speaker 10: As far as Rainer grew Up is concerned, it's just
Speaker 10: another day in the office. There's absolutely nothing going on. No, no, no,
Speaker 10: we're not preparing any sort of assault at all. It's
Speaker 10: just another regular day at work.
Speaker 1: That NATO headquarters, Yiner Rupp is instructed to respond urgently.
Speaker 1: He reaches into his pocket and takes out his spy calculator.
Speaker 1: It's pouring rain. Reiner runs to the designated phone booth.
Speaker 1: He's out of breath, He's paranoid. He looks over his shoulder.
Speaker 1: Has he been followed? He puts two francs in the
Speaker 1: coin slot and dials the number. An elderly woman answers
Speaker 1: the phone.
Speaker 8: Hello.
Speaker 1: Reiner says the code phrase, hello Grandma, I'd like to
Speaker 1: come visit you this weekend. There's a pause and then
Speaker 1: a click. Now he knows quote unquote, grandmother is recording
Speaker 1: the call. He raises the calculator to the receiver, presses
Speaker 1: a button and it makes a noise. Yeah. Encoded in
Speaker 1: the crackle is his urgent message. NATO is not preparing
Speaker 1: an attack. There are no plans for a secret surprise attack.
Speaker 1: Stand down. He hangs up the phone.
Speaker 5: No be armed.
Speaker 11: I mean, I don't see anything of that happening in NATO.
Speaker 1: Now. Somewhere in East Germany, Stazi agents rushed to the
Speaker 1: home of the elderly woman, retrieved the recording and decode
Speaker 1: the bleepity, bluepity message that could save the entire world
Speaker 1: as we know it. They'd send an urgent telegram back
Speaker 1: to the KGB in Moscow. NATO is not preparing an attack,
Speaker 1: and when the KGB receives this message, the panic will
Speaker 1: all die down. Ryan or Rupp will have single handedly
Speaker 1: ended the nuclear scare, popped the champagne. The world is saved, right,
Speaker 1: of course not.
Speaker 10: They might well have just been another form of deception.
Speaker 10: And these supremely paranoid KGB officials are seeing Maskarovka everywhere.
Speaker 10: You know, they're all out to get us. That Rynner
Speaker 10: Up had been taken over and been told to send
Speaker 10: this message.
Speaker 1: I mean it sounds paranoid, but at the same time, like,
Speaker 1: how are you supposed to trust a spy?
Speaker 11: Of course I was only one agent's and they had
Speaker 11: their other views.
Speaker 1: Sorry, Ryner, we know you tried your best. The KGB
Speaker 1: doesn't trust him. The one man who could solidly confirm
Speaker 1: that NATO was not preparing an attack on the Soviet Union.
Speaker 1: And even at this moment where it seems like things
Speaker 1: could not get any worse, they do.
Speaker 6: It was extraordinarily tense time.
Speaker 1: This is John Perutz.
Speaker 6: Lieutenant General Lennarprutz was my father and he was in
Speaker 6: Germany while I was in high school when the events
Speaker 6: of the Soviet War took place.
Speaker 1: John's father, Lieutenant General Leonard Perutz, was a high ranking
Speaker 1: intelligence officer for the US Air Force stationed in Germany,
Speaker 1: and it was during Exercise Able Archer when a memo
Speaker 1: from the NSSA landed on Lyonard Perut's desk about some
Speaker 1: concerning Soviet military movements.
Speaker 6: The first thing, it's the first thing they noted were
Speaker 6: some heightened activities by some Soviet aircraft across the border
Speaker 6: in Germany.
Speaker 1: The memo said that as of nineteen hundred hours on November,
Speaker 1: two Soviet fighter bomber planes in East Germany were on
Speaker 1: high alert. By itself, it wasn't enough to be extremely alarming.
Speaker 1: But then a few days later he got an update
Speaker 1: and the picture got a lot scarier.
Speaker 6: We found out that some Soviet Air Force unit got
Speaker 6: approval to arm their aircraft without their jamming pods. Now,
Speaker 6: the electronic jamming pods are pretty standard piece of equipment
Speaker 6: on a military aircraft.
Speaker 1: They're actually an essential piece of equipment on a military aircraft.
Speaker 1: They can jam a radar, letting the flight go undetected
Speaker 1: by enemy surveillance.
Speaker 6: And there was speculation as to why would they be
Speaker 6: allowed to get ready, to be on alert and get
Speaker 6: ready to fly without that, And there were speculation that, well,
Speaker 6: maybe they had a different payload.
Speaker 1: Than they were used to. Let me do just some
Speaker 1: military translating for you. The electronic jamming pods are heavy.
Speaker 1: Linard Perots analysts told him the planes are experiencing weight issues.
Speaker 1: They're trying to rebalance the aircraft because the weight distribution
Speaker 1: is changing. It's our theory that they're taking off the
Speaker 1: jamming pods because whatever they're loading onto those planes is
Speaker 1: too heavy. And we think they're loading real nuclear weapons.
Speaker 6: Interesting, anomalous.
Speaker 1: Something you should know about Leonard Peruts. He was a
Speaker 1: military man his whole life. Procedures, chain of command, I mean,
Speaker 1: protocol was practically middle name. Actually it was Harry, but
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So when he got that
Speaker 1: frightening report from his analysts, Lynyrd Perutz immediately called his
Speaker 1: superior four star General Billy Minter.
Speaker 6: And he had to report to him, Hey, sir, there's
Speaker 6: some anomalies Soviet forces seemed if air forces have gone
Speaker 6: on a heightened alert.
Speaker 1: Heightened alert with bombs and tow General Billy Mintor asks
Speaker 1: Peruts what he thinks.
Speaker 6: They said, you know, Lenny, should we heighten our alert level?
Speaker 1: Should we put our air force on alert? In that moment,
Speaker 1: Leonard Perutz was completely unaware that his next move might
Speaker 1: determine the fate of humanity. He had no clue that
Speaker 1: the Soviets had intercepted able archer radio communications in which
Speaker 1: NATO ordered the pretend launch of twenty five nuclear weapons
Speaker 1: upon Soviet targets, and that the Soviet leaders were awake
Speaker 1: that night waiting for those missiles to appear on their
Speaker 1: radar screens. All he saw was real Soviet bombs being
Speaker 1: loaded onto real Soviet planes, and he had a decision
Speaker 1: to make Option one, put the air force on alert,
Speaker 1: pass the intel up the chain of command. But what
Speaker 1: would Reagan do with this information? Would he start a war?
Speaker 1: And what would the Soviets do if they saw us reacting?
Speaker 1: Option two? Wait and watch, risk getting it wrong, risk
Speaker 1: the fate of the world. If he waited while the
Speaker 1: Soviets launched nuclear bombs from their planes, the world would
Speaker 1: be forever changed, possibly destroyed, and it would be all
Speaker 1: his fault. All right, my nerves are totally fried. So
Speaker 1: let's recap where we are in a fun way. Let's
Speaker 1: do it in song.
Speaker 12: With The Soviets were paranoid that any military exercises might
Speaker 12: just be cover for an actual attack, and so they
Speaker 12: had all of their.
Speaker 1: Spies looking signs of an attack. And basically we're swimming
Speaker 1: in a stew of confirmation bias. And then NATO begins
Speaker 1: Able Archer. It's a giant exercise and it fulfills all
Speaker 1: the soviets worst nightmares. They loaded up all their planes
Speaker 1: with bombs, and all the leaders retreated to the bunkers,
Speaker 1: and now their fingers are hovering over the buttons, and
Speaker 1: they're gonna launch missiles at each other and start a
Speaker 1: huge jugar war. And it's down to good old Leonard Peruts,
Speaker 1: who has no idea what's actually going on, but has
Speaker 1: to make a crazy decision next week. Oh no, we
Speaker 1: have to wait until next week. Yep, sorry everybody. This
Speaker 1: is how we did things before Netflix gave you bingeables.
Speaker 1: Next week on SNAFU.
Speaker 5: And General Pots makes a really critical decision at this time.
Speaker 5: He's not making this decision based on any knowledge about
Speaker 5: what's happening.
Speaker 6: That decision made is attributed to out of misinformation. It's
Speaker 6: even described as that of ignorance.
Speaker 1: So there are two versions of this.
Speaker 11: There's the version the CIA initially put out, and then
Speaker 11: Ilfoya the State Department and got its version, and its
Speaker 11: version is pretty interesting.
Speaker 6: Speak truth to power even when it hurts.
Speaker 1: Snapfoo is a production of iHeartRadio, Film, Nation Entertainment, and
Speaker 1: Pacific Electric Picture Company in association with Gilded Audio. Our
Speaker 1: lead producers are Sarah Joyner and Alyssa Martino. Our producer
Speaker 1: is Carl Nellis, Associate producer Tory Smith. It's executive produced
Speaker 1: by me Ed Helms Milan Papelka, Mike Falbo, Andy Chug,
Speaker 1: and Whitney Donaldson. This episode was written by Sarah Joyner,
Speaker 1: with additional writing from me Elliot Kalen, and Whitney Donaldson.
Speaker 1: Our senior editor is Jeffrey Lewis. How upset are you
Speaker 1: about this fact? Olivia Kenny is our production assistant. Our
Speaker 1: creative executive is Brett Harris. Additional research and fact checking
Speaker 1: by Charles Richter, Engineering and technical direction by Nick Dooley.
Speaker 1: Original music and sound design by Dan Rosatto. Additional editing
Speaker 1: from Ben Chugg. Some archival audio from this episode originally
Speaker 1: appeared in Taylor Downing's fantastic film nineteen eighty three, The
Speaker 1: Brink of Apocalypse. Thank you, mister Downing for permission to
Speaker 1: use it. Special thanks to Alison Cohen and Matt Aisenstadt.