WEBVTT - The Paul Johnson Aftershow

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Maren Took's Money the After Show. This is

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<v Speaker 1>a show where we comment on and digest the conversation

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<v Speaker 1>that you hear in our regular podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Maren Sunset Web.

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<v Speaker 1>This week, John Steppick, Senior, a border at Bloomberg and

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<v Speaker 1>author of the Daily Money distilled newsletter that is a

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<v Speaker 1>must read, by the way, joins me to discuss the

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<v Speaker 1>conversation we had with Paul Johnson, director at the Institute

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<v Speaker 1>of Fiscal Studies and author of Follow the Money. How

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<v Speaker 1>much does Britain cost? The answer of course being a

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<v Speaker 1>lot too much or not quite enough, depending on that

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<v Speaker 1>where you've said on the political spectrum, John, that was

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<v Speaker 1>a fun conversation, wasn't it? And may I say how

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<v Speaker 1>wonderful it was to have you in the conversation the

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<v Speaker 1>whole way through.

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<v Speaker 2>Very helpful. Meant I had to do significantly less work.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks very much.

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<v Speaker 3>That's very Katy. You say it was wonderful to be there,

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>You missed the bit where I said I only liked

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<v Speaker 1>having you excited to do let's work.

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<v Speaker 2>You're a great compliment acceptor exactly Now, Listen, what.

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<v Speaker 1>We learned from Paul was pretty straightforward. It was the

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<v Speaker 1>UK is incredibly expensive. It's getting more, much more expensive.

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<v Speaker 1>You're going to be a big pile of more taxes.

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<v Speaker 1>We could sort it out, I'm paraphrasing here. We could

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<v Speaker 1>sort it out by growing, but we don't seem to

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<v Speaker 1>be very good at growing anymore. Oh dear, Is that

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<v Speaker 1>a reasonable summary of what we talked about?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean I think it. Poll's great and he's

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<v Speaker 3>full of data and fully really interesting points, but he's

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<v Speaker 3>at a pressing bloke. Yeah, it's basically just you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to have to pay a lot more tax forever, and

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<v Speaker 3>your public services are just going to get essentially what.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, it makes sense. You know, we've lost

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<v Speaker 1>our peace dividend. And one of the points that he

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<v Speaker 1>made that I think is particularly worth focusing on for

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<v Speaker 1>everybody is that one of the ways in which we've

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<v Speaker 1>managed to up a welfare spending to the extent we have,

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<v Speaker 1>and to spend as much more on the NHS, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>as we have is because of the feast dividend. Because

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<v Speaker 1>we've been seeing our defense spending fall and fall and

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<v Speaker 1>fall and fall down to a couple of percentage points.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, a third of what it used to be, and.

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<v Speaker 2>That's turning around.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're now, for obvious reason, is going to have

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<v Speaker 1>to spend more on defense. There's really no way out

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<v Speaker 1>of that in this geopolitical environment. And at the same

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<v Speaker 1>time we also need to spend more and more on welfare,

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<v Speaker 1>on social care, on the NHS because of our aging

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<v Speaker 1>population and by the way, our population that is not

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<v Speaker 1>growing as fast as anyone expected it to even a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years ago. So it's very hard to see

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<v Speaker 1>a way out, particularly with our low growth levels.

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<v Speaker 2>And we didn't look particularly.

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<v Speaker 1>At the speed of UK's growth during that podcast, but

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at between late nineties nineteen ninety eight

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and seven, that period, the UK economy grew

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<v Speaker 1>at two and a half percent a year the whole

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<v Speaker 1>way through, and since then we've dipped and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one and a half percent is kind of our dream

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<v Speaker 1>these days, and that's the problem, and it's all about productivity.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and that's I mean, that's a really interesting point

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<v Speaker 3>they make there about the peace dividend, because there's arguably

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<v Speaker 3>there's an element there that this is all part of

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<v Speaker 3>the same kind of turning point now where we're now

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<v Speaker 3>going into a higher interest rate kind of era as well,

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<v Speaker 3>because the Peace dividend also enabled you know, a massive

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<v Speaker 3>flow of extra labor into the world market, and that

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<v Speaker 3>helped keep wages down, et cetera, et cetera, helps keep

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<v Speaker 3>inflation down. And now that that's all kind of going

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<v Speaker 3>into reverse, you've you've got you've get this happening as well.

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<v Speaker 3>So yes, so to an ext tent, we kind of

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<v Speaker 3>squandered the Peace dividend arguably, which is the other reason

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<v Speaker 3>that's kind of probably left as way lower productivity as well,

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<v Speaker 3>because we haven't had our you know, our kind of

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<v Speaker 3>noses to the grindstone, as it were, because we've been

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<v Speaker 3>able to ease off from that point of view and

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<v Speaker 3>kind of just enjoy law entry historys and and law

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<v Speaker 3>hot doal rates for people to get the stupid ideas

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<v Speaker 3>are proved and things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>Stupid ideas, John, Honestly, you mean there, yeah, well let's

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<v Speaker 1>not go there.

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<v Speaker 2>That's not good.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, the key, the key takeaway from when

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<v Speaker 1>we talked in the second half of the show, we

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<v Speaker 1>talked we tried to move away from the miseries of

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<v Speaker 1>taxed and the full on socialization of all risk and

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<v Speaker 1>everyone's slightly over enhanced.

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<v Speaker 2>Expectations of the state.

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<v Speaker 1>We tried to move away from that a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>and start talking about how the UK can grow, what

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<v Speaker 1>we can do to improve our productivity rates, and that

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<v Speaker 1>came straight down to what we we often say this

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<v Speaker 1>in finance, don't we simple but not easy?

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, we really really, really really do know how

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<v Speaker 4>to do it, but we decide not to. I mean

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<v Speaker 4>it's uh, you know, so sorting out the planning system,

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<v Speaker 4>sorting out the tax system, if we've just described would

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<v Speaker 4>be good for growth. We know that investment in sensible

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<v Speaker 4>investment in infrastructure is clearly important, and not cutting spending

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<v Speaker 4>on further education and vocational education as has happened over

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<v Speaker 4>the last fifteen years, also building the roads and airports

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<v Speaker 4>and so on. That we need, having a consistent strategy

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<v Speaker 4>towards competition and R and D and all those sorts

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<v Speaker 4>of things, and free at trade with the European Union.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, all of those things we know would be

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<v Speaker 4>good for growth.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, Paul says, we know exactly what we

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<v Speaker 1>need to do if we want to improve productivity and

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<v Speaker 1>we need to grow. We need political stability, We need

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<v Speaker 1>to sort out our tax system, which is just absurd.

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<v Speaker 1>We need to have a good look at the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of welfare. We need to do something about infrastructure, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>build stuff, don't cancel stuff. We need to pull back

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<v Speaker 1>on regulation. We need to do something about our education system.

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<v Speaker 1>We need to do something in our planning, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course we need to return to positive real race of interest.

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<v Speaker 1>All these things need to happen if we want to

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<v Speaker 1>be the kind of economy that is productive and growing again.

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<v Speaker 1>And we had some hints from the Labor Party conference

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<v Speaker 1>about some of those things, and we had some hints

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<v Speaker 1>in the Conservative Party conference about some of those things.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, both sides know that something needs to be

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<v Speaker 1>done about the education system to broaden it out, etc.

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<v Speaker 1>Both sides know something needs to be done about planning,

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<v Speaker 1>although of course only one is planning on building new

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<v Speaker 1>cities and ignoring what everyone says about it. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we know all those things, but we kind of can't

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<v Speaker 1>do them. There's so much leftogy, appathy, obstruction built into

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<v Speaker 1>our system that while we know what to do, we

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to do it. And that was sort of

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<v Speaker 1>slightly the most depressing thing that comes out of talking

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<v Speaker 1>to Paul PAULI you're not depressing in person. By the way, Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a depressing person. He just delivers depressing information.

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<v Speaker 3>Different we shouldn't shoot the messenger, No, I mean, I

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<v Speaker 3>think that is interesting. Nor the fact that there's a

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<v Speaker 3>Lackey political cottage or whatever it is or or will.

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<v Speaker 3>And I know the people you know, you quite often

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<v Speaker 3>get told that well, you get the politicians and the

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<v Speaker 3>political parties that you deserve as voters. But I'm not

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<v Speaker 3>sure that's entirely fair. I have to say.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, one thing I would say that was interesting

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<v Speaker 3>about the reaction of the Labor Party conference and the

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<v Speaker 3>tone that Labor Party took in making the house building announcement.

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<v Speaker 3>They're kind of big front page grabber. Is I think

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<v Speaker 3>that shows that the at least the national conversation on

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<v Speaker 3>infrastructure and specifically in house building is shifting in the

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<v Speaker 3>direction of moving away from you know, theoretically everyone being

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<v Speaker 3>an INMBI a kind of not in my back garden

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<v Speaker 3>kind of person. And I think that's kind of positive

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<v Speaker 3>because it shows that there is that kind of mood

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<v Speaker 3>swing towards look, we're kind of fed up, let's get

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<v Speaker 3>stuff done. I mean, obviously The issue is then when

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<v Speaker 3>you get into the weeds of it, you end up

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<v Speaker 3>waiting because it's one thing, so okay, since labor are

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<v Speaker 3>saying this, but I was recently talking to somebody about

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<v Speaker 3>that whole nutrient neutrality thing which labor blocked, and that's

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<v Speaker 3>literally kind of preventing the kind of instant kind of

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<v Speaker 3>you know, shovels in the groundwork on something like one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred thousand odd houses and a one hundred thousand odd

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<v Speaker 3>houses in the grand scheme of how many we we

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<v Speaker 3>say we need or want to build is a small amount,

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<v Speaker 3>but on an annual basis, it's an awful lot. And

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<v Speaker 3>the point is you could start all of them now

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<v Speaker 3>if you kind of got rid of this somewhat minor

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<v Speaker 3>environmental kind of rule. And that's the problem. You sort

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<v Speaker 3>of you get into that and immediately you know, like

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<v Speaker 3>most of these regulations were put in place for a

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<v Speaker 3>reason and because some pressure group was annoyed about them

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<v Speaker 3>in the first place. There's a lot of very small

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<v Speaker 3>special interests, and I don't I don't know what it

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<v Speaker 3>will take for our politicians to start running raiding rough

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<v Speaker 3>short over those special interests. I feel that there's a

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<v Speaker 3>real ridiculous level of sensitivity in the part of leaders.

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<v Speaker 3>That is incredibly overblown. And I don't I really don't

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<v Speaker 3>know where it comes from.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, everybody, everybody wants to look like the best person,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's easier to do it by you know, approving Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, some of these pressure groups are very strong,

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<v Speaker 1>and the things that they say are very valid. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we must protect this type of animal, that type of animal,

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<v Speaker 1>this type environment, or that type of environment. And the

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<v Speaker 1>bigger picture is much harder to sell, you know, And

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<v Speaker 1>the housing is very hard to sell to communities when

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<v Speaker 1>it's when it's about putting up larger states on the

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<v Speaker 1>edge of towns without increasing and improving the infrastructure around

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<v Speaker 1>those towns. While the idea of having new towns is

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<v Speaker 1>a lot better than the idea of having new housing

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<v Speaker 1>estates tacked onto existing towns that don't have the infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>capacity to deal with them. So, you know, I quite

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<v Speaker 1>rather like that that idea of Kastarmers, let's just build

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<v Speaker 1>nice new towns. He's in cahoots with the king, really,

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<v Speaker 1>isn't He does that a pounded bree everywhere.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm all over that all over.

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<v Speaker 3>That king tells is the true, Poppet myself being to

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<v Speaker 3>live a party as that will be interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>The King has been absolutely right when it has come

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<v Speaker 1>to building whole new towns. Everybody loves a boundary, everybody

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<v Speaker 1>loves living in it.

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<v Speaker 2>It looks nice. No one protests about a poundbury.

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<v Speaker 1>So this idea of building attractive, not hideous, attractive new towns,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they offend architects or not, because everything attractive does

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<v Speaker 1>seem to offend the modern architect If you put those

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<v Speaker 1>up in new spaces with the infrastructure they required, that

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<v Speaker 1>the shops, the GP surgeries, the opticians, etc. Rather than

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<v Speaker 1>tacking them onto the edge of existing towns and expecting

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<v Speaker 1>those towns just to you know, take it. I think

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<v Speaker 1>you won't have the same problem that we've had for

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of decades. So I was very very

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<v Speaker 1>pro that idea from Kiostarmer, and pro a couple of

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<v Speaker 1>other ideas as well, very very not pro some others.

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<v Speaker 1>But we won't go into that now.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, probably it's not.

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<v Speaker 2>Probably does not.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, the one last thing I would say is that,

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<v Speaker 3>and we did discuss this with Paul, that there are

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of things in the taccess them which are I'll.

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<v Speaker 2>Just dafted new taxes that should come in.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, I mean so many ways that you could

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<v Speaker 4>make it better than it than it is. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>we have this absurd situation where we've got National Insurance

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<v Speaker 4>contributions which are just attaxed. There's no relation to anything

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<v Speaker 4>that people are entitled to, which you pay on earned income.

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<v Speaker 4>So if you're a wage sleeve like me, you pay

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<v Speaker 4>lots of that. If you're a partner at a professional

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<v Speaker 4>services company, you don't. If you're self employed you pay

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<v Speaker 4>a lot less. And if your income is coming from

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<v Speaker 4>rents on a property happened to earn or shares what

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<v Speaker 4>you don't pay anything. You don't pay any National insurance

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<v Speaker 4>on pension payment in payment that actually don't pay it

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<v Speaker 4>on pension contributions either. So number one, just admit that

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<v Speaker 4>this is just a tax on income and get a lot.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they add the result obviously of layer upon

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<v Speaker 3>layer of basically stealth taxes, and you know corn merchant

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:18.920
<v Speaker 3>moves by successive chancellors. But again it feels like one

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<v Speaker 3>of those things if somebody just kind of spoke to

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<v Speaker 3>the public in a slightly rational way, particularly if it's

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<v Speaker 3>a new government and they're a bit more popular, and

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<v Speaker 3>they've got a wee bit more leeway and an honeymoon

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<v Speaker 3>period and said, they see how these stupid marginal tax rates,

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<v Speaker 3>we're gonna get rid of them and we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>replace them. Me is something that's perfectly fair and it's

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<v Speaker 3>still progressive, but one that doesn't stop people from deciding

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<v Speaker 3>to earn more money because they're going to get punched

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<v Speaker 3>in the face as soon as they got over, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred thousand pounds, fifty thousand pounds, et cetera, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'd like to see someone talking about that. And

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<v Speaker 3>again it's one of these weird things where what you

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<v Speaker 3>probably need is a leftish identified party getting any power.

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<v Speaker 3>It do always something, because then it doesn't look as

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<v Speaker 3>if they're going behind to the wretch, whoever their wretch

0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 3>you can consider it to be. So, you know, I

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<v Speaker 3>Fraechel re uses less than then that strikes me as

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<v Speaker 3>making a lot of sense.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, this is really important, John, because what when

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to both parties at the moment actually talking

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<v Speaker 1>about growth. They talk about growth as though growth is

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<v Speaker 1>something you can force, something you can make. They talk

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<v Speaker 1>about creating jobs and all this kind of things so

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<v Speaker 1>they can somehow make it happen. And that's not how

0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:43.200
<v Speaker 1>it works. And what you've just described is the opposite thing.

0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 1>It's let growth happen, you know, let an economy grow.

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<v Speaker 1>The moment we're always talking about forcing it. Now, you

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<v Speaker 1>can't force economic growth. What you can do is create

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<v Speaker 1>the correct infrastructure. Step back and let it happen. You

0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.480
<v Speaker 1>need to create an environment that allows growth. And that's

0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:00.080
<v Speaker 1>something you.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't hear talked about, Everet.

0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.040
<v Speaker 1>It's always about the big government, big state, pushing it,

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<v Speaker 1>making it, creating it things that you and I, because

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<v Speaker 1>we're getting old, simply are not possible.

0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.719
<v Speaker 3>And no, unfortunately, Bill, I see how long it's these

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:16.960
<v Speaker 3>at a fashion. The only thing that will stop. That's

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 3>the point vigilities. Weirdly enough, and yeah, at least they

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:23.400
<v Speaker 3>seem to be shown some things that can help. Even

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 3>the law, I'm still not convinced that they actually properly exist.

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 1>Well, we'll come back to this. We'll come back to

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 1>this another day. But I would like to finish our

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 1>conversation John with an Adam Smith quote. I believe all

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 1>conversations should end with an Adam Smith quote, and this

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 1>one is particularly relevant to everything that we've just been

0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:42.360
<v Speaker 1>talking about.

0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 2>You ready, yelp.

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 1>The uniform, constant, and uninterrupted effort of every man to

0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 1>better his condition is frequently powerful enough to maintain the

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 1>natural progress of things towards improvement, in spite both of

0:14:56.520 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the extravagance of government and of the greatest errors of

0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 1>its administration. Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks

0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.440
<v Speaker 1>Money the after Show. This episode was hosted by me

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Meren Somerset Web alongside John Steppek. It was produced by

0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Someersidi additional editing by Blake Naples.