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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree on five dollars?

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Speaker 3: This is a rating the lesson Cowboy tackle ship one.

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Speaker 1: Man, you're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, that's good.

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Speaker 2: I suppose best, relentless refusing to give up. All right,

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Speaker 2: hit that horn, baby, Let's say.

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Speaker 1: What's good everybody.

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Speaker 2: This is the Fantasy Flex Conference Championship Week Props podcast

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Speaker 2: presented by Prize Picks. I'm your host, Chris Ravon, joined

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Speaker 2: as always by my dude, Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 1: Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: Man? Let's go went four and one in these last

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Speaker 3: three and one the week before, and five and out

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Speaker 3: of the week. Of course, let's keep this writing. How's

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Speaker 3: it going with you?

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Speaker 2: I think I went three and two last week. I

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Speaker 2: don't have a memory beyond that. I'm like a cornerback.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's just onto the next week, no matter

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Speaker 2: how good or how bad you do. That's true, just

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Speaker 2: reinvest in or just turning the bank roll over. Yes,

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Speaker 2: but no, we'll do three props on the show instead

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Speaker 2: of five, just because we don't want to go crazy

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Speaker 2: for the you know, there's less games, but obviously that

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Speaker 2: should still be quite the quite the amount to make

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Speaker 2: some entries here.

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Speaker 1: So let's get to it. Where are you going with

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Speaker 1: your first problem?

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Speaker 2: Oh and for everyone out there, we usually do one

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Speaker 2: quarterback to running back to receiver. For this pot, we're

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Speaker 2: just doing three of whatever, like, no categories because we

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Speaker 2: don't want to kind of limit ourselves here. So let's

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Speaker 2: get to it. Where are you going with your first one?

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Speaker 2: So I'm going with Jimmy g over two and ten

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Speaker 2: and a half passing yards. This is actually the prop

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Speaker 2: I lost last week, so I'm going back to the well. Yes,

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Speaker 2: he kind of has a wide range of outcomes, but

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Speaker 2: I think this is the week he's gonna go over.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Rams play a ton of zones, specifically

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Speaker 2: you know, cover three, four, six, and we look at

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Speaker 2: qbs against those coverages. This season, Jimmy ranks near the top,

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Speaker 2: and like every metric I was looking at, he ranks

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Speaker 2: first and yards per a tent at nine point six

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Speaker 2: second in success rate. You know, a lot of that

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Speaker 2: has to do with the scheme, of course, but also

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Speaker 2: you know, he gets the ball in the hands of

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Speaker 2: yak players like Debo Kittle.

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Speaker 3: You know, even like Mitchell could have a big game receiving.

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Speaker 3: So you know, this is just a spot where I

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Speaker 3: like the matchup. We have talked about it. I like

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Speaker 3: the Niners to win this week, so I think Jimmy

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Speaker 3: g is gonna go over to ten and a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting this poster to like two thirty. But we've

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Speaker 3: seen he as a high ceiling capability here.

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Speaker 2: Rams are number three in past dvoa on defense and

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Speaker 2: as my Dude Stuck he pointed out on our Action

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Speaker 2: Network NFL podcast this week, only one quarterback this year,

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Speaker 2: one starter has averaged over nine yards in attempt against

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Speaker 2: the lost a angelis Rams defense and it's Jimmy Garoppolo

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Speaker 2: and he's done it twice, so that this is this

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Speaker 2: is just his matchup here, and we kind of talk

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Speaker 2: about it all week. So you know, I think the

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Speaker 2: only thing that comes down to and I have it, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I have it around two thirty as well. I think

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Speaker 2: the only thing that comes down to is volume with him.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's there's there's always a possibility that the

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Speaker 2: Niners could be up and not have to do much.

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Speaker 2: I think he had averaging about two fifty against the Rams,

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Speaker 2: but one of the games is like three sixteen, the

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Speaker 2: other one was like one to eighty two.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I still have.

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Speaker 2: Him over as well, but that would be the only

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Speaker 2: thing that would kind of slow him down would be

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Speaker 2: just the volume, I think.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the one eighty two they won by twenty one points,

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Speaker 3: so certainly you know that was games. Well, you said

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Speaker 3: it comes down to volume. But he does perform well

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Speaker 3: against schemes similar to the Rams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Kittle and deebo I believe in the regular

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Speaker 2: season led the league in yards per route versus zone

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Speaker 2: at their respective positions, and the Rams play like zone

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Speaker 2: at a four to one rate compared to man.

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Speaker 1: That's just kind of what they do.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, so this is a little bit less

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Speaker 3: of a bet on Jimmy g and more on you know,

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Speaker 3: Devo and Kittle picking up those YACs. So it's it's

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Speaker 3: kind of investing on those skill players.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's just that's Kyle Shannan's game plan.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: For my first I'm going with Joe Burrow over two

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty and a half passing yards at prize picks.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: He's been over in four of the last five, put

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Speaker 2: up four to forty six against Kansas City in the

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Speaker 2: first matchup, and Kansas City there are top sixteen in

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Speaker 2: terms of man coverage rate, and we know, you know,

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Speaker 2: we've been kind of talking about this all year, but

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow just shreds man coverage. You know, NFL best

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Speaker 2: eleven zero point four yards per targeted pass attempts against

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Speaker 2: man coverage. Kansas City also likes to blitz and Burrow

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Speaker 2: also leads the league by over two yards per tempt

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Speaker 2: against the blitz.

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Speaker 1: So just a great matchup for him.

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Speaker 2: But even if Kansas City makes some adjustments, which I

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Speaker 2: think you have to after a guy goes for four

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Speaker 2: forty plus in the last matchup, although he did it

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Speaker 2: to Baltimore twice, if I'm not mistaken, he went off

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Speaker 2: against Baltimore twice.

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Speaker 1: So maybe it's not as easy as it said it done.

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Speaker 2: But I still think that the way Mahomes is playing,

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a pass heavy gamescript. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's the AFC Championship. You're a seven point underdog. The

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Speaker 2: opposing offense is explosive, So there's a lot of ways

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Speaker 2: for Burrow to get to this. For the fifth time

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Speaker 2: in sixth games, So I'm projecting this closer to two

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Speaker 2: ninety one here. So I bet this into the high

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Speaker 2: tow eighties, maybe to eighty six and a half or

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Speaker 2: so here, with Burrow to go over to eighty and

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Speaker 2: a half against the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one that you definitely stole from me.

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Speaker 3: I love this one as well a lot of things

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Speaker 3: you mentioned. But also last week, you know, I was

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Speaker 3: talking about the Bengals. Their pass rate has gone up

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Speaker 3: significantly the past five or six games, but also you know,

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Speaker 3: their running game has been extremely inefficient, so they've been

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Speaker 3: using Joe Mixon more in the pass game. You know,

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Speaker 3: that was the fourth game in a row that mixing

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Speaker 3: has had four more catches, so they're almost using dump

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Speaker 3: offs to mix it as an extension of the run game,

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Speaker 3: which only helps Burrows prop. So, like you said, I'm

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Speaker 3: projecting this in the two nineties. I just think has

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Speaker 3: a really high floor, especially given the matchup. So I'm

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Speaker 3: with you on the over here as well.

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Speaker 2: Anytime he takes a twenty yard sack, that's just twenty

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Speaker 2: more potential pass years as.

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Speaker 3: Long as it doesn't come on third down, As long

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Speaker 3: as he doesn't get injured. That's the only thing we

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Speaker 3: don't like when it comes to sacks. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 3: it's gonna make a more pass heavy. Maybe get like

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Speaker 3: just a third and fifteen dump off for ten yards. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Like sacks aren't the worst thing that ever happened to

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Speaker 3: a passing prop. All right, where you going with your

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Speaker 3: second prop? So I'm going with Debo over a half

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Speaker 3: a touchdown? So he will score a touchdown this week.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's just been a monster now that you know.

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Speaker 3: He gets eight to ten carries a game plus the

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Speaker 3: receiving usage, so he could get in the end zone

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Speaker 3: either way. He's done an all season. He scored in

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Speaker 3: twelve of sixteen games this year. Score a touch on

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Speaker 3: both meetings against the Ram And look, I said, this

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Speaker 3: is a great matchup for Jimmy G because it's a

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Speaker 3: great matchup for Deebo. He's been shredding zone as a

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Speaker 3: receiver all season, so this is a great spot for him.

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Speaker 3: But also when they get near that goal line, you

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Speaker 3: know he's probably going to be in the backfield on

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Speaker 3: a couple of those plays, So just love his chances.

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Speaker 3: It's much a game like this, you know, to go

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Speaker 3: to the Super Bowl. They are going to feed debo.

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Speaker 3: So love his over a half a touchdown here.

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Speaker 2: He scored in over half his games. I mean it

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Speaker 2: is closer, like sixty closer than sixteen.

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Speaker 1: So like, yeah, it's.

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Speaker 2: Closer like seventy. Yeah, yeah, Now I think it's sixty.

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Speaker 2: I think it's sixty six. I think it's twelve and

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Speaker 2: to eight. He's played eighteen games now, right, if you

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Speaker 2: count the playoffs. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yes, I think

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Speaker 2: it's it's about two thirds. He scores two out of

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Speaker 2: every three.

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Speaker 1: It's a it's a it's a it's a pretty it's

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Speaker 1: a pretty generous line that Price Picks has floated us. Yes,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: For my second prop, I'm going van Jefferson over twenty

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Speaker 2: eight and a half receiving yards and this number is

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Speaker 2: just way too I wonder if it has something to

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Speaker 2: do with the fact that he was a DNP in

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Speaker 2: practice on Wednesday or listed as a DMP I to

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Speaker 2: believe it was like an estimation, But Sean McVay has

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Speaker 2: said it's just kind of a rest situation for Jefferson,

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Speaker 2: and the reason is because he played ninety five percent

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Speaker 2: of the routes last week and his medium for the

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Speaker 2: seasons eighty nine percent, So those underlying metrics are great,

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Speaker 2: and his performance relative to this number is great. He's

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Speaker 2: been over twenty eight and a half and fourteen of

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Speaker 2: nineteen games, he's had thirty one plus yards and thirteen

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Speaker 2: of nineteen, which is sixty eight percent. And he's had

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Speaker 2: forty one plus in twelve of nineteen which is sixty

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Speaker 2: three percent. So I think the books are waiting like

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Speaker 2: the last couple of games, way too heavily here where

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Speaker 2: his underlying usage is great. He only needs one catch

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Speaker 2: to go over this and the Rams will likely have

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Speaker 2: to pass more against the San Francisco defense that's number

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Speaker 2: two in the league in run DVOA. And you know,

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Speaker 2: you look at Jefferson and I think his averages should

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Speaker 2: be in the mid forties. So I mean the fact

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Speaker 2: that he's gone forty one plus and swell with nineteen.

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Speaker 2: I think this number is about ten to eleven yards

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Speaker 2: too low here.

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Speaker 1: So I love this one. Van Jefferson over twenty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half receiver.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I love this one as well. He he's gone

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Speaker 3: over this in three straight games despite averaging only an

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Speaker 3: eight percent target rate on his routs run. Yeah, which

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Speaker 3: is just like it the only way it can goes up,

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Speaker 3: Like it's probably going to bump up in you know,

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Speaker 3: the thirteen fourteen percent range if I had to project that.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, like the fact that he's gone over this

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Speaker 3: in three straight despite almost having a floor game in

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Speaker 3: terms of usage means this is just an easy over

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Speaker 3: for me as well. So this one stuck out. Maybe

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Speaker 3: I think it did have to do at the practice support,

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Speaker 3: but this is a must win games. He's probably gonna

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Speaker 3: be out there for ninety percent plus of the snaps.

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Speaker 3: Where are you going with your third I am going

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Speaker 3: with Byron Pringle over thirty three and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 3: You know, I've been talking about him as being just

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Speaker 3: the clear number two receiver in this offense. You know,

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Speaker 3: he's typically running around in the eighty percent range, and

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Speaker 3: his underlying usage has been really sold for five straight games,

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Speaker 3: and it's translated on the field. You know, he's he's

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Speaker 3: got five or more balls and four of the past

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Speaker 3: five games, So it just gives him a really really

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Speaker 3: high floor. This is a game where I'm probably above

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Speaker 3: the market in terms of passing yards for homes as well.

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Speaker 3: I'm closer to three hundred yards. So I love Byron Pringle. Here,

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting this closer to you know, forty one and

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Speaker 3: a half, so this is about ten yards off.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Prigo has like really established himself here. He's caught

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Speaker 2: five at least five balls in for the last five games.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, you just kind of do the math. Well,

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously he's averaging over ten yards per catch,

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Speaker 2: and I mean he might be you know, he might

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Speaker 2: be closer to fifty. I mean, obviously you're going to

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Speaker 2: kind of knock him down a little bit rushing to

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Speaker 2: the mean. But his median really is, I think, a

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Speaker 2: lot higher than this. And it's another one where I

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Speaker 2: don't I don't know exactly what sample size books are using,

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Speaker 2: but I've noticed that his number is a little across

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Speaker 2: the industry as well. All Right, for my third and

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Speaker 2: final prop, I'm going Tyler Boyd over thirty six and

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Speaker 2: a half receiving yards. So, uh, he's only been over

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Speaker 2: this in about half of his games this year, exactly half.

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Speaker 1: But his median is four catches this season.

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Speaker 2: And he's done that more more than half the time,

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Speaker 2: and he averages twelve point four yards per catch. So

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Speaker 2: I think he's you know, it's just been some kind

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Speaker 2: of fluky sample size. The fact that he's only fifty

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Speaker 2: percent over this number. I think his median should be

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Speaker 2: closer to the to the mid forties, closer to a

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Speaker 2: number like forty eight, maybe even high forties. But more importantly,

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Speaker 2: if you look at the Chiefs defense in that first meeting,

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Speaker 2: they gave up eleven for two sixty six to Jamar

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Speaker 2: Chase with three touchdowns. I think they're going to try to,

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Speaker 2: you know, scheme against him a little more heavily this

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Speaker 2: time around, like they did Stefan Diggs last week. Diggs

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Speaker 2: was held to just three catches for seven yards and

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Speaker 2: gave Davis went eight for two to one.

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Speaker 1: And Cole Beasley went six for sixties.

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Speaker 2: So I think, you know, Boyd is going to kind

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Speaker 2: of be in that in that range where he's gonna

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Speaker 2: be you know, maybe te Higgins has the big game like.

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Speaker 1: Kind of like Gabe Davis.

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Speaker 2: Obviously Chase will get his, but I think Tyler Boyd

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Speaker 2: they're gonna need him to, you know, get more than

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Speaker 2: thirty six thirty seven yards in this game. I think

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Speaker 2: he's gonna be up in the forties. So I have

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Speaker 2: his mean closer to fifty. Actually, I'm a little over

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Speaker 2: obviously on Burrow, like we talked about, So I think

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Speaker 2: this is another one where it's like this, this guy

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Speaker 2: in my high twenties, mid thirties range in the props

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Speaker 2: that I think is just way too low here.

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Speaker 1: So Tyer Boyd over thirty six and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that, And I already mentioned, like on

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Speaker 3: her Tuesday pod, that you know, if Burrow's feeling pressure,

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Speaker 3: if the offense ploying crumbles around him again, he's gonna

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Speaker 3: want to get it out to some like Tyer Boyd,

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Speaker 3: a lower a DOT player. He's been his second most

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Speaker 3: targeted receiver win pressured this season, so this is just

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Speaker 3: a great spot for Tyler Boyd. I agree he's he's

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Speaker 3: more of a high flour player, so whenever his prop

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Speaker 3: is this low, I love taking me over as well.

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Speaker 2: Next up here in the Fantasy Flex is the segment

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Speaker 2: we call Elite entries, where Sean and I dive into

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Speaker 2: the Prize Picks app and compare our player projections to

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Speaker 2: the props to build some entry. Sean, wh's a first

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Speaker 2: prize pick a lead entry for today, so.

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Speaker 3: I'm going Deebo Samuel over a half a touchdown. So basically,

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Speaker 3: he will score a touchdown this week. Whether it's rushing

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Speaker 3: or receiving doesn't matter. He's done it in twelve of

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Speaker 3: eighteen games this year. That's a sixty seven percent clip.

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting him culture to a point eighty five, which

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Speaker 3: you know checks out. I think he's gonna score a

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Speaker 3: touch on over sixty percent at the time, especially since

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Speaker 3: they've been giving him eight to ten rush temps a game.

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Speaker 3: He's gonna you know, see four to five catches. But

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Speaker 3: also when they get in the red zone, they're gonna

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Speaker 3: use him heavily, and he scored in both meeting against

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Speaker 3: the RAMSOM four. This is a great matchup for him.

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Speaker 3: So I just love, you know, taking me over a

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Speaker 3: half a touchdown for Deebo Samuel Esquick.

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Speaker 1: For my first prize pick a weit Entry four today.

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Speaker 2: I'm going Van Jefferson over twenty eight and a half

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Speaker 2: receiving yards. He's he's been at forty one or more

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Speaker 2: in sixty three percent of his games this season. He

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Speaker 2: has a really high but I think the only reason

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Speaker 2: that this number is so low is because he did

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Speaker 2: not practice on Wednesday. But McVeigh has come out and

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Speaker 2: said that that's just him getting some rests, so he'll

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Speaker 2: be fine for the for the game. And this is

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Speaker 2: a game where they might have to pass more against

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Speaker 2: San Francisco's top two run defense. So going Van Jefferson

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Speaker 2: over twenty eight and a half receiving yards. Sean, where

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Speaker 2: are you going with your second prize pickleweed entry.

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Speaker 3: I'm going with Byron Pringle over thirty three and a

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Speaker 3: half receiving yards. So he's a clear number two wide

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Speaker 3: receiver in this Chiefs offense. He's you know, we could

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Speaker 3: typically bank on him to run around about eighty percent

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Speaker 3: of Patrick Mahomes dropbacks, and his underlying usage has been phenomenal.

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Speaker 3: For five straight games he's had no coincidence, he's seen

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Speaker 3: five or more receptions and for the past five games.

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Speaker 3: So just right now he has a really high four

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Speaker 3: and I'm projecting him close for to forty one and

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Speaker 3: a half. So love the value we get over thirty

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Speaker 3: three and a half receion yards for fire and Springle.

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Speaker 2: For my second prize pickle lead entry, I'm going with

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Speaker 2: Tyler Boyd over thirty six and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: He ran a route on ninety six percent of the

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Speaker 2: dropbacks last week. His median catches this year is four,

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Speaker 2: which he's been over in well over half his games

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Speaker 2: after over so averaging twelve yards per catch means his

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Speaker 2: median should be closer to the mid to high forties. Here,

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Speaker 2: we saw the Chiefs takeaway Stefon Diggs last week just

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Speaker 2: three catches for seven yards, well gave. Davis went eight

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Speaker 2: for two a one, and Beasley went six for sixty.

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Speaker 2: So I think Boyd, especially after Burrow got sacked so

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Speaker 2: many times, it's going to be a guy that they

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Speaker 2: look to scheme up some quick passes too. So he's

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Speaker 2: been quiet, but I think this is a good time

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Speaker 2: to buy low and Tyler Boyd at over thirty six

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Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards and that is going to.

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Speaker 1: Do it for our prize picks.

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Speaker 2: The lead entry for today to recap, Shawn's going Deebo

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Speaker 2: Samuel over a half a touchdown Byron Kringle over thirty

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Speaker 2: three and a half receiving yards. I'm going Van Jefferson

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Speaker 2: over twenty eight and a half receiving yards and Tyler

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Speaker 2: Boyd over thirty six and a half receiving yards. As

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Speaker 2: a reminder, Prize Picks markets do move, so you want

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Speaker 2: to get on it quickly in order to lock in

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Speaker 2: the best numbers. If you have not created a prize

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Speaker 2: Picks account yet, check out the link in our episode description.

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Speaker 1: They'll match your first deposit up to one hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: Or you can visit prizepicks dot com and use the

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Speaker 2: promo code action ten. That's act Ion one zero. Okay,

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Speaker 2: now back to the show, all right, that is going

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Speaker 2: to do it For our Championship Week Props podcast to

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Speaker 2: recap Shawn's gone with Jimmy Garoppolo over two hundred ten

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Speaker 2: and a half passing yards, Deebo Samuel over a half

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, and Byron Pringle over thirty three and a

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Speaker 2: half receiving yards. I'm going with Joe Burrow over two

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty and a half passing yards, Van Jefferson

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Speaker 2: over twenty eight and a half receiving yards and Tyler

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Speaker 2: Boyd over thirty six and a half yards. Be sure

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Speaker 2: to follow Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker

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00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 2: and myself at Chris Raybon. You can find us at

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Speaker 2: those same handles and the Free award Winning Action Network

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Speaker 2: AP We sure to check actionnetwork dot com for our

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Speaker 2: betting content and fantasylabs dot com for our DFS content.

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Speaker 1: Tools and models. Till next time, Fetish Money