WEBVTT - March Jobs Report Preview, Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News Opening Day, major League Baseball

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<v Speaker 1>being rolled back, uh certainly here in New York with

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<v Speaker 1>the mats because of COVID nineteen protocols. New York Cities

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<v Speaker 1>Health Commissioner a warning residents to take precautions during the

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern passover holidays as the city's COVID nineteen cases remained

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<v Speaker 1>stubbornly high and more contagious variants or past them. And

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<v Speaker 1>then we talked about Fiser and Biontechs COVID nineteen vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>remaining more than effective after six months, according to some

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<v Speaker 1>data from a final stage trial released Uh. Today, We've

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<v Speaker 1>got a perfect voice to talk about it. Dr Amish Adalga.

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<v Speaker 1>He is an infectious disease physician Senior scholar at Johns

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<v Speaker 1>Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of

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<v Speaker 1>Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Dolga on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from Pittsburgh. Dr Dalging, Nice to have you here with

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and myself. So much to talk about, but let's

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<v Speaker 1>start with Fiser and finding that six months out it

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<v Speaker 1>still seems to be working and keeping individuals safe. When

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to COVID nineteen, this feels pretty big. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it is. It's good news, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's something that we all expected to see because most

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines do have durability that last, you know, a year,

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<v Speaker 1>or even more than a year if you think about

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<v Speaker 1>some some vaccines, like our Tetanish vaccines. It's just that

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<v Speaker 1>when you're doing all of this in the midst of

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<v Speaker 1>a pandemic, you're you don't have time to do the

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<v Speaker 1>natural history studies ahead of time to know when immunity

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<v Speaker 1>may wayne, when you might need a booster. So what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on now? Or these natural history studies, and I

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<v Speaker 1>suspect that nine months, will will hear that it works

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<v Speaker 1>well at nine months, and we'll hear that it works

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<v Speaker 1>well at twelve months. Uh, And I think that's that's

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<v Speaker 1>to be expected, and it makes it a lot. It

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<v Speaker 1>gives people a lot more certainty, especially as guidance starts

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<v Speaker 1>to change for what vaccinatee of people can do. So

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<v Speaker 1>Dr R dodges that changed the way you're thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>a potential booster, that people who get this vaccine might

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<v Speaker 1>need a booster at some point in the future. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's too early to say when we might

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<v Speaker 1>need a booster. And remember we have different boosters for

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<v Speaker 1>different vaccines. So a technic shot you get your booster

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<v Speaker 1>every ten years, and there are other vaccines where you

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<v Speaker 1>might get a booster in a shorter period of time. So,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, you get one dose of the Beasels monshrou

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<v Speaker 1>Bella vaccine around twelve or fifteen months, and you get

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<v Speaker 1>another one around five years of age and then you're done.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's different, and it's really based on doing

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<v Speaker 1>those studies, watching antibodies, watching t cells, looking to see

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<v Speaker 1>do people get reinfected, and then you make a decision

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<v Speaker 1>on when a booster might be needed, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're likely not going to need a booster for at

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<v Speaker 1>least a year, and probably more than that. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>separate issue about variant updating the vaccine, which is a

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<v Speaker 1>different issue that sometimes gets conflated with the whole booster issue.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think it's too early to say. Hopefully it

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<v Speaker 1>won't be something that's an annual thing. Maybe it's biennial,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe every three years, every two years. We'll see. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the Fiser bound tech vaccine is one of two m

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<v Speaker 1>R and A vaccines that has emergency use authorization here

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States. The other one comes from MODERNA.

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<v Speaker 1>It does feel like we're getting more data from Fiser

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. Are you seeing Maderna data out there

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<v Speaker 1>or should we think about this being a similar result

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<v Speaker 1>that we'd see from MODERNA. I mean, can we think

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<v Speaker 1>that way? I do think you can largely extrapolate what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening with the Fiser vaccine to the Maderna vaccine because

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<v Speaker 1>they are very similar to their identical technologies, was very

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<v Speaker 1>similar ingredients, So most things are going to apply to

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<v Speaker 1>both of them. But obviously we want to see the

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<v Speaker 1>modernity data as well, because these are two separate products

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<v Speaker 1>and there will be two separate recommendations that that could

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<v Speaker 1>could result if there are any discrepancies. But I don't

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<v Speaker 1>expect to have any kind of surprises with the MODERNA

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<v Speaker 1>data after we've seen the fiser TAVA or DAJA. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>for someone like me who watches FINA to markets and

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<v Speaker 1>economic cycles and have for many years, you know there's

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<v Speaker 1>are there are ups and downs, and there are cycles

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<v Speaker 1>that are shorter longer. When you look at the virus

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<v Speaker 1>and COVID nineteen cycle, where do you think we are?

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're in an interesting situation. So we're basically

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<v Speaker 1>in a in a race between vaccines and this virus,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've done a very good job at getting vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>into high risk individuals, nursing home residents, high risk community

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<v Speaker 1>dwelling people, and that's sort of change the way we

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<v Speaker 1>have to think about this virus. That we still have

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<v Speaker 1>a large proportion of the population it's not vaccinated, but

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<v Speaker 1>we have removed the ability of the virus to really

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<v Speaker 1>compromise hospitals because of the way we rolled out our vaccines.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you're vaccinated now, you're unlikely to be hospitalized,

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<v Speaker 1>and we gave the vaccine to those people who were

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<v Speaker 1>most likely to be hospitalized. So what I see as

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<v Speaker 1>a decoupling of cases from hospital hospital capacity concerns, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's going to take some time to get

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<v Speaker 1>getting used to. And I think people see these cases

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<v Speaker 1>surging and they expect to see us get back in

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<v Speaker 1>the same same predicament we were in in the winter,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's not going to happen because of where the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine went, and that's that's where we are now. The

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<v Speaker 1>goal is really just to get more vaccine into those

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<v Speaker 1>lower priority groups so that we see some decrease in spread.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're not going to get to COVID zero. We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to kind of get to some some spot where

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<v Speaker 1>where this is not a public health emergency anymore, where

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<v Speaker 1>it's a much more manageable respiratory disease. And I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know where that spot is, but when hospitals are not

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<v Speaker 1>in crisis, I for one don't have the same worry

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<v Speaker 1>as as I would looking at this number of cases.

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<v Speaker 1>It just got like thirty thirty seconds here and then

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna take a break and come back and talk

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<v Speaker 1>some more. So we're never going to get to COVID zero. No,

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<v Speaker 1>it's very difficult to eradicate the disease. There's only ever

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<v Speaker 1>been one disease that eradicated from the planet, smallpox in

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen or starrs. COVIE two is an efficiently spreading

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<v Speaker 1>respiratory virus with an unknown animal host that's already spread

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<v Speaker 1>into other animals like minx and cats. It's justn't something

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<v Speaker 1>that goes away. It's going to become an endemic respiratory virus,

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<v Speaker 1>one that we deal with every year, but one that

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<v Speaker 1>never has the ability to threaten us the way it

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<v Speaker 1>can now because of the vaccine dr Adulga. We were

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<v Speaker 1>talking and we'll be talking later to our colleague Sarah Fryer, who,

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<v Speaker 1>along with our other colleagues Sarah Copitt, has a new

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week story all about anti vaxtors and how Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>is really allowing that information to flourish on the platform.

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<v Speaker 1>There's this fascinating quote in here from Karen Cornblue, director

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<v Speaker 1>of the think tank at the German Marshall Fund of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative. She says, quote,

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<v Speaker 1>the folks who are supporting the science have to get

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<v Speaker 1>better at telling the story, and that's in response to

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<v Speaker 1>the way that the scientists have been responding to anti

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<v Speaker 1>vaxers and the misinformation out there. What's the best way

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<v Speaker 1>for doctors to actually get the message out about the

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<v Speaker 1>safety around this vaccine. I think it's to really talk

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<v Speaker 1>to each person, at each patient that's in front of you,

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<v Speaker 1>and see exactly what their safety concerns are, and then

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<v Speaker 1>provide them with that data. I think one of the

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<v Speaker 1>one of the benefits of our all of Operation Warp

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<v Speaker 1>Speed and all these vaccine trials is that we have

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<v Speaker 1>so much data available so you can basically address any

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<v Speaker 1>person's safety concerns. All of this data is freely available,

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<v Speaker 1>and there are a lot of resources for doctors to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to talk to their patients. But I also think,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, even when you're talking to the public, when

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<v Speaker 1>you're in the press, it's really important just to stress

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<v Speaker 1>that when you look at the safety data, it's really

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<v Speaker 1>remarkable how safe this is. And it's not just the

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<v Speaker 1>clinical trials, it's what's going on in the real world

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<v Speaker 1>with the hundreds of millions of doses that have been

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<v Speaker 1>distributed around the world in the basic absence of any

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<v Speaker 1>major safety signal. That that that's concerning, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's all you can do is really be as

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<v Speaker 1>proactive about this and try and address concerns as best

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<v Speaker 1>as you can and not be in a reactionary stance

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<v Speaker 1>where you're waiting for the anti vaccine movement to come

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<v Speaker 1>up with the latest conspiracy theory and then you're stuck

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<v Speaker 1>rebutting it. I think if we present a positive case

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<v Speaker 1>for this vaccine, you know that the data is the

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<v Speaker 1>best is the best salesperson for it. But having you know,

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<v Speaker 1>medical people in my family, like every once in a

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<v Speaker 1>while we're having conversation and they get into medical speak

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<v Speaker 1>and it's like, I'm sorry, I'm not stupid, but I

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<v Speaker 1>don't understand what you're saying. And I think the messaging

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<v Speaker 1>can sometimes be on a on a different plane that

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't reach people. So like, you've got this incredible audience

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<v Speaker 1>right now, and I know you often do on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>and on Quick Take, like what's what's the thing that

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<v Speaker 1>you think you can say about the vaccines that are

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<v Speaker 1>out there to kind of give confidence to people who

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<v Speaker 1>maybe are holding off on getting the vaccine because they're scared.

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<v Speaker 1>What I would say is that I've been taking care

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID nineteen patients since the beginning of this pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>and I can see the benefit of this vaccine with

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<v Speaker 1>my eyes. When I walked through the hospital. I worked

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<v Speaker 1>at the hospital on Monday and Tuesday. I could walk

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<v Speaker 1>around and I could see that it was a whole

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<v Speaker 1>different place than than it was just back in December

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<v Speaker 1>when we were in on data with COVID nineteen. And

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<v Speaker 1>what changed. The cases are still high. It's actually the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that our vulnerable populations got vaccinated and that vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>has removed the ability of the virus to cause severe

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<v Speaker 1>disease and death. I can also say that I have

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<v Speaker 1>not seen any person present to the hospital with any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of side effect or concerned that put them, that

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<v Speaker 1>that landed them in the hospital from the vaccine. I've

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<v Speaker 1>poured over the data I've I've had to answer so

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<v Speaker 1>many questions about so many different side effects that people

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<v Speaker 1>may or may not have had, or anecdotes, and and

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<v Speaker 1>nothing has really panned out. And I think it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary how safe these vaccines are. And I think that

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<v Speaker 1>even though we don't have long term data, even though

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<v Speaker 1>we don't have long term data, Yes, even though we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have long term data. I think it's important to

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<v Speaker 1>remember that any time of vaccine has approved, we still

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<v Speaker 1>continue to study the vaccine. After approval. They do what

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<v Speaker 1>are called phase four post marketing studies. They're still doing

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<v Speaker 1>no studies for things like the HPV vaccine guard it self.

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<v Speaker 1>That's very normal and and the thing is we're in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of a pandemic where over five thousand people died.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that there was any option of waiting

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<v Speaker 1>six years down the road to say, let's have six

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<v Speaker 1>years of safety data before we release this vaccine. But

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<v Speaker 1>then there would be people said, well, we need seven

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<v Speaker 1>year safety data. We need eight Your safety data agreed.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just playing Devil's Advocate. Already already got I've already

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<v Speaker 1>gotten one, and I'm waiting. I'm glad they waiting for

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<v Speaker 1>that second one, and I'm set to get it this weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm pretty excited about it. Dr Adulge, we do

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<v Speaker 1>still see despite everything that you're saying, despite what the

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<v Speaker 1>scientists and doctors are saying, we do still see hesitancy

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<v Speaker 1>among some Americans. You mentioned her immunity and that we

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<v Speaker 1>need to get to hurt immunity what happens though, if

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<v Speaker 1>we don't get to hurt immunity through the vaccine, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think if we don't get to hurt immunity through

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine, you will still have a higher level of

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<v Speaker 1>cases than anybody wants, probably in the tens of thousands

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<v Speaker 1>range for some time until the population reaches herd immunity

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<v Speaker 1>with a combination of the vaccine and natural immunity. To me,

0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:52.800
<v Speaker 1>herd immunity is an important milestone, but I've always been

0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.920
<v Speaker 1>very focused on hospital capacity, like I said before, So

0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:59.000
<v Speaker 1>if we can get our vulnerbal populations all vaccinated and

0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:02.280
<v Speaker 1>this isn't something lands people in the hospital or kills them,

0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:04.959
<v Speaker 1>it becomes much more manageful even if we don't hit

0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:08.520
<v Speaker 1>her immunity through the vaccine, especially if that if the

0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:11.600
<v Speaker 1>people that are vaccine hesitant are not the highest christ individuals.

0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.840
<v Speaker 1>I worry about that the vaccine hesitancy kind of clustering

0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.679
<v Speaker 1>in a group of people that that might be at

0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:20.640
<v Speaker 1>high risk for hospitalization. But I do think that the

0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.040
<v Speaker 1>more vaccine we get into people, the more people that

0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:25.880
<v Speaker 1>are accepting of this vaccine, the faster track we we

0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:29.640
<v Speaker 1>are on to ending the pandemic and making COVID nineteen

0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.679
<v Speaker 1>something that is more like respiratory viruses that we deal

0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.160
<v Speaker 1>with year in and year out. So it's going to

0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:36.760
<v Speaker 1>be a major challenge when we've become less supply constraint

0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.880
<v Speaker 1>and more demand constrained. One well, so smart and so

0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:42.280
<v Speaker 1>spot on in terms of the conversations I know I'm

0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:45.960
<v Speaker 1>having out in public and certainly around the newsroom and elsewhere.

0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:49.400
<v Speaker 1>Dr Amish Adaga, thank you so much. Infectious Disease Physicians,

0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:52.280
<v Speaker 1>Senior Scholar at John's Hopkins Center for Health Security at

0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.240
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:58.479
<v Speaker 1>founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropy. Is great conversation.

0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Quick takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. So makes you wonder, Tim,

0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:09.760
<v Speaker 1>if anything is changing when it comes to social media.

0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:11.920
<v Speaker 1>This next story kind of plays into that. It's about

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:15.240
<v Speaker 1>how Facebook is letting anti vax ER's scare women from

0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.559
<v Speaker 1>COVID shots. It's real, and I gotta say I know

0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.000
<v Speaker 1>this firsthand based on the conversations I've been having. There's

0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of women, especially those who maybe haven't had

0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.040
<v Speaker 1>children or are waiting to have their kids, and they're

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 1>worried about getting vaccines. Look, this is something that's new

0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:29.839
<v Speaker 1>to everybody right now. The science is playing out in

0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 1>real time as we talk about all the time. Joel

0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:34.000
<v Speaker 1>Webber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week, joining us on

0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.920
<v Speaker 1>the remote from Brooklyn on the access line. Sarah Fryer

0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.600
<v Speaker 1>is technology reporter at Bloomberg News and she's the author

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>of No Filter, The Inside Story of Instagram. Joining us

0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:47.920
<v Speaker 1>now on the phone from San Francisco. U, Joel, this

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:53.080
<v Speaker 1>is a very concerning piece from Sarah Fryar and and

0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.360
<v Speaker 1>and Sarah copit because Facebook, it seems, would have the

0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.240
<v Speaker 1>power to stop the spread of this type of misinformation

0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.040
<v Speaker 1>and the indeed change the way that they're thinking about it,

0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:05.800
<v Speaker 1>but it's still flourishing on the platform. Well, and it

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 1>it just speaks to a kind of the bigger Facebook

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 1>story that UM, Sarah has has been all over for

0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:17.360
<v Speaker 1>for years now about just misinformation on the platform and

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.720
<v Speaker 1>the you know, the main metric of success for Facebook

0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 1>is engagement and UM, even when things are outright lies, UM,

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 1>if people engage with them, it tends to be something

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.480
<v Speaker 1>that that Facebook uh struggles to figure out how to

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.200
<v Speaker 1>police and moderate and you know, they they've kind of

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.559
<v Speaker 1>said one thing and have necessarily not always done that

0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 1>in this particular instance. And I do think it's a

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:44.840
<v Speaker 1>really fascinating sort of case study because here we are,

0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:46.920
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of the pandemic. People are getting shots

0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 1>and or considering getting vaccinated in a rapid clip now,

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.680
<v Speaker 1>and yet we've actually seen and what what serves reporting

0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:59.280
<v Speaker 1>shows is that women on social media and particularly on

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:04.200
<v Speaker 1>Facebook have and basically targeted by anti vaxers as and

0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:09.800
<v Speaker 1>that has become really a devastating um um impact. So

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:11.600
<v Speaker 1>so Sarah talked to us a little bit more about

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:16.440
<v Speaker 1>what you found and why it's so troubling. Well, this

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 1>anti vax movement has been brewing for for years for

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.480
<v Speaker 1>other kinds of vaccines um and with the pandemic, it's

0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 1>different because the first people eligible for these COVID shops

0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>are adults. So the normal rhetoric that they target young

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 1>mothers with telling their telling them not to get their

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 1>kids vascinated, they are targeting that same group but saying

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 1>that of the vaccine is going to cause fertility issues.

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 1>You don't know what the adverse site effects are going

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:49.640
<v Speaker 1>to be and it's simply not true. The problem is

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.560
<v Speaker 1>on Facebook, and we've talked about this over and over

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 1>on this show as well. This stuff that spreads is

0:14:56.160 --> 0:15:00.040
<v Speaker 1>that which sparks emotion, It's that which causes surprise. I

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 1>is in commentary. And although Facebook has done all these things,

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 1>like you know, banning the worst offenders and trying to

0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 1>put up good vaccine information, they're up against their own systems,

0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:16.520
<v Speaker 1>their own their own design that rewards that kind of

0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 1>behavior on their apps and on Instagram. It's it's very

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 1>pervasive too. And I would even say a little bit worth. Um.

0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:28.120
<v Speaker 1>The lead character of our stories, as woman Police Williams,

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 1>who was always a little skeptical, became more skeptical, i

0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.320
<v Speaker 1>should say, of the medical establishment after going through camps

0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 1>between it and when she joined Instagram, she got really

0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:43.240
<v Speaker 1>into alternative health and natural wellness and through that went

0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:48.160
<v Speaker 1>down the rabbit hole into learning this false information about

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:52.800
<v Speaker 1>how vaccines could cause adverse side effects. Um that simply

0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 1>wasn't based in reality. And on Instagram you have the

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 1>effects of the people that are are saying that are

0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 1>famal teneously trying to sell alternatives supplement plans workouts, whatever

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:09.960
<v Speaker 1>they can do as an alternative to what the government

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:14.720
<v Speaker 1>is is selling UM via vaccine. So I really think

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:19.280
<v Speaker 1>that it's it's not a reliable source of good health information. Sarah,

0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm glad you brought that up because that's something I

0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 1>wanted to talk more about, and that was one of

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 1>my takeaways that there is actually this like anti vax

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:30.240
<v Speaker 1>or industrial complex out there that stands to financially benefit

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:36.600
<v Speaker 1>from from people uh not believing the science, right. I

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:38.840
<v Speaker 1>think that that again, it's it's preying on the fear.

0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 1>And on Instagram, people have built their profiles, influencers who

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.640
<v Speaker 1>are in wellness have built their profiles around giving you

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>this idyllic path for your life, saying you know, if

0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:55.080
<v Speaker 1>you just do my Juce cleanse or do my workouts,

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.960
<v Speaker 1>like trust me, I know what do and you can

0:16:58.080 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 1>look like me and you can have a life like me.

0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.760
<v Speaker 1>And those personal stories again, just like on Facebook and

0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:08.120
<v Speaker 1>Facebook groups, personal stories resonate people trust people who who

0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>are intimate and emotional and and letting them into their

0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.600
<v Speaker 1>lives and will buy things from those people, whether it's

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:21.080
<v Speaker 1>UM buy into the antexots they're spreading or UM by

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:25.919
<v Speaker 1>what they're selling in terms of wellness, retreats and supplements.

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:30.119
<v Speaker 1>So I think that that it's important for people to

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:34.560
<v Speaker 1>understand that as we shift from this discussion about vaccine supply,

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.119
<v Speaker 1>like you know, who's eligible, when is it going to

0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:41.680
<v Speaker 1>be distributed to us, a discussion about vaccines demand. Um,

0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 1>once more people have access to the shot, this is

0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:47.879
<v Speaker 1>going to be a huge factor. So Sarah like, who's

0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.520
<v Speaker 1>the fault? I mean, I feel like Facebook, you know,

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:53.000
<v Speaker 1>we learned a lot leading up to the November election

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:58.639
<v Speaker 1>about misinformation on the platform. So do you fall Facebook

0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.840
<v Speaker 1>for not policing it more? Or do people fall uh

0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.439
<v Speaker 1>Facebook now you know, for policing it not more? Or

0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:07.399
<v Speaker 1>what about the science community and medical community for coming

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:12.680
<v Speaker 1>out with smarter messaging? Well, the medical community, it's it's

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.679
<v Speaker 1>difficult because inherently doctors are not going to tell you

0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.480
<v Speaker 1>things and absolutes. There's there's a lot of nuance there,

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.359
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of technical background that needs to be

0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:27.080
<v Speaker 1>to be told in on Facebook all they have done

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:32.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot to try to improve their reaction to the problems,

0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.240
<v Speaker 1>but they haven't done anything to solve They're solving the

0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:39.320
<v Speaker 1>symptom and not the disease um. The symptoms being the

0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:42.280
<v Speaker 1>information that spreads the people that have gotten saneus. The

0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:46.199
<v Speaker 1>worst is the worst, Um, the disease being just the

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.680
<v Speaker 1>very structure of the app, how it actually works, Um,

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.479
<v Speaker 1>the way things are personalized. The woman I was speaking

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:55.360
<v Speaker 1>of earlier UM said, you know the great thing about

0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:58.439
<v Speaker 1>Instagram is once you find some people who are you know,

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.760
<v Speaker 1>in the world she wants to sell her essential oil

0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:04.040
<v Speaker 1>to Instagram just serves up more people like those people.

0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 1>It's all about the personalization. It's all about bringing people

0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 1>deeper into the communities that they want to interact with

0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:12.760
<v Speaker 1>online because, like Joel said, it's all about engagement and

0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.040
<v Speaker 1>that is the fundamental problem. I love that aspect of it,

0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.760
<v Speaker 1>where you got into groups and the meaningful conversations and

0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:21.040
<v Speaker 1>how that just provided so much more momentum um to

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:25.159
<v Speaker 1>these conversations inaccurate ones and others. Uh Sarah. It's a

0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.920
<v Speaker 1>great read. It is so full of information, smart information

0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 1>and understanding how this all works. So I highly recommend

0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 1>that everybody check it out. It's going to be featured,

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:35.560
<v Speaker 1>by the way, in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:37.639
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine. You can read it now though on the

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Terminal and also at Bloomberg dot Com, Slash business Week.

0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:43.960
<v Speaker 1>Sarah Fryer, thank you, Thank you, Technology report at Bloomberg News,

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:47.119
<v Speaker 1>author of No Filter, the inside story of Instagram. Great

0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:49.760
<v Speaker 1>weekend reading. I'm just going to point that out with us.

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>From San Francisco. Joel Weber, editor a Bloomberg Business Week.

0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:01.200
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol and Bloomberg

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:06.400
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes. Tim Stinovy from Bloomberg Radio. You are listening

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:09.520
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. It is Thursday. It is the

0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>monthly jobs report. Eve and back with us as an

0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:15.000
<v Speaker 1>insider and informed, an insightful voice when it comes to

0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:18.560
<v Speaker 1>all things Washington and politics and policy. Chris lou is

0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:21.200
<v Speaker 1>back with us. He's former Deputy Secretary of Labor under

0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:24.280
<v Speaker 1>the Obama administration, worked up on Capitol Hill. He's actually

0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:27.159
<v Speaker 1>worked in each of the three branches of the U. S. Government.

0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:29.879
<v Speaker 1>He was also executive director of Barack Obama's two thousand

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:33.560
<v Speaker 1>eight transition team, member of President Biden's transition team, and

0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:36.960
<v Speaker 1>he is senior Fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center.

0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:40.160
<v Speaker 1>He joins us on the phone in Charlottesville, Virginia, Chris,

0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:42.680
<v Speaker 1>so nice to have you here. How are you? I'm

0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.440
<v Speaker 1>a great boy that we have to shortenight. I was

0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:47.000
<v Speaker 1>gonna say, sorry, we've run out of time. You have

0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:50.800
<v Speaker 1>to stop being, you know, doing all these notable things. Um,

0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:53.320
<v Speaker 1>let's talk jobs. How do you see it right now

0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:56.160
<v Speaker 1>in terms of we knew the pandemic shut us down,

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 1>we lost all these jobs were coming back, but we're

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:02.520
<v Speaker 1>a long way from being there. We are a long way.

0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:06.120
<v Speaker 1>You know. The consensus estimate for tomorrow is around six

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:10.639
<v Speaker 1>hundred to seven hundred thousand compared to last month, which

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 1>was three hundred and seventy nine thousand, and I think

0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:16.159
<v Speaker 1>that's about right. I think when you look at the

0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:20.320
<v Speaker 1>pace of vaccinations as well as reopenings around the country,

0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.359
<v Speaker 1>people are starting to travel more, go out to restaurants.

0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:26.159
<v Speaker 1>I think things are picking up. But it's important to

0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:29.000
<v Speaker 1>understand what a big hole we are in. Let's let's

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:33.879
<v Speaker 1>say we get you know, six hundred thousand jobs created. Uh,

0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:36.560
<v Speaker 1>we'd still be down about nine million from where we

0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>were before the pandemic, and that's still far worse than

0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:42.760
<v Speaker 1>we ever were at the height of the Great Recession.

0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 1>So we're in a really big hole. And we're kind

0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:50.760
<v Speaker 1>of slowly crawling back out. Obviously, the economic relief package,

0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:54.400
<v Speaker 1>the one point nine trilling is important, Infrastructure is important.

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:56.400
<v Speaker 1>But we're not out of the woods yet. I mean

0:21:56.440 --> 0:21:59.479
<v Speaker 1>we we could now are starting to see COVID cases

0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:03.040
<v Speaker 1>rise back up in the Northeast and Midwest, UM, some states,

0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I would argue our opening too fast, and so it's

0:22:06.600 --> 0:22:08.639
<v Speaker 1>kind of a race against time right now. Can we

0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>get out of the woods, Chris without another recovery package? Well, look,

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.200
<v Speaker 1>it sort of depends on what you think get out

0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.399
<v Speaker 1>of the woods means. I mean, you know, what UM

0:22:21.720 --> 0:22:24.359
<v Speaker 1>President Biden has talked about is building back better, which

0:22:24.359 --> 0:22:26.399
<v Speaker 1>is the goal is not just to get back to

0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:30.040
<v Speaker 1>where we were in February, but to really try to

0:22:30.200 --> 0:22:34.320
<v Speaker 1>address some of the broader economic inequalities, not only just

0:22:34.400 --> 0:22:38.119
<v Speaker 1>at the individual level, but obviously the continued under investment

0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:42.360
<v Speaker 1>in infrastructure over the years, and that's across all administrations.

0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 1>So you know, look, I think we can get employment

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:47.800
<v Speaker 1>back to where it was eventually. But I do think

0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.159
<v Speaker 1>the lesson we learned from the Great Recession is that

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:55.399
<v Speaker 1>unless we go big, the recovery takes much longer. People

0:22:55.680 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 1>will suffer far longer, and I think that's the underlying

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:02.960
<v Speaker 1>theory about why the President and Democrats in Congress feel

0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:06.840
<v Speaker 1>like infrastructure needs to happen. That's a great point, Like, listen,

0:23:06.960 --> 0:23:09.680
<v Speaker 1>this is not the same crisis as the financial crisis, right, Chris.

0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 1>But we did commit a lot of money right after

0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:15.800
<v Speaker 1>the financial crisis to bring things back. But if but

0:23:15.840 --> 0:23:18.840
<v Speaker 1>we let's not forget how kind of low and slow

0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:23.760
<v Speaker 1>it was going, uh, in terms of that recovery. Here

0:23:23.800 --> 0:23:26.439
<v Speaker 1>we are, and we have an opportunity to kind of

0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:29.440
<v Speaker 1>really make a difference for the current economy, but even

0:23:29.440 --> 0:23:32.000
<v Speaker 1>more importantly for the longer term growth of the US

0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:37.439
<v Speaker 1>economy exactly. And you know, I I think about the

0:23:37.440 --> 0:23:40.160
<v Speaker 1>Recovery Act that was passed in two thousand nine when

0:23:40.200 --> 0:23:42.920
<v Speaker 1>I worked for President Obama. That seemed really big at

0:23:42.920 --> 0:23:45.639
<v Speaker 1>the time. And now you consider that just over the

0:23:45.680 --> 0:23:49.840
<v Speaker 1>past year plus, we've done about five to six trillion

0:23:49.920 --> 0:23:53.440
<v Speaker 1>of economic relief up just to get us out of COVID,

0:23:53.800 --> 0:23:57.200
<v Speaker 1>and then potentially now another two trillion in this first

0:23:57.280 --> 0:23:59.879
<v Speaker 1>round of infrastructure. So we're not looking at, you know,

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:03.240
<v Speaker 1>eight nine times bigger than where we went were in

0:24:03.280 --> 0:24:06.080
<v Speaker 1>two thousand nine. And I think history has taught us

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:08.719
<v Speaker 1>that If we really want to get the economy up

0:24:08.720 --> 0:24:11.840
<v Speaker 1>back up and running, but more importantly, create jobs, bring

0:24:11.840 --> 0:24:15.040
<v Speaker 1>manufacturing back, and stay competitive with China, we need to

0:24:15.040 --> 0:24:17.600
<v Speaker 1>do a lot more. And that's why there's so much

0:24:17.640 --> 0:24:21.560
<v Speaker 1>in this infrastructure package and so many things. Frankly that again,

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:24.680
<v Speaker 1>if we could divorce politics from this, and that's obviously

0:24:25.000 --> 0:24:28.360
<v Speaker 1>impossible to do, you'd find a lot of bipartisan support

0:24:28.400 --> 0:24:32.320
<v Speaker 1>for not just roads and bridges, but broadband and school construction.

0:24:32.640 --> 0:24:34.679
<v Speaker 1>These are things that people have been talking about in

0:24:34.720 --> 0:24:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Washington for years. We can't divorce politics from this, though,

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 1>and and that's that's the issue, right, Everything is political.

0:24:42.160 --> 0:24:44.439
<v Speaker 1>Given that the Biden administration wasn't able to get a

0:24:44.480 --> 0:24:47.240
<v Speaker 1>single Republican vote for the one point nine trillion dollar

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:50.200
<v Speaker 1>relief package, how does the administration push through a two

0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:54.960
<v Speaker 1>point to five billion trillion dollar infrastructure plan. I think

0:24:54.960 --> 0:24:57.000
<v Speaker 1>they're going to first see if they can find some

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:00.440
<v Speaker 1>support in some common ground. And the White House Chief

0:25:00.440 --> 0:25:03.480
<v Speaker 1>of Staff Ron Klain, did a talk today where you know,

0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:06.320
<v Speaker 1>he didn't immediately say we're going to go down and

0:25:06.359 --> 0:25:10.240
<v Speaker 1>do the budget reconciliation route, which takes votes, but he's

0:25:10.280 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 1>going to try that. They're going to try to find

0:25:12.080 --> 0:25:16.120
<v Speaker 1>bipartisan sport and that maybe not in Washington, but they're

0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:17.600
<v Speaker 1>going to try at least make the case to the

0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 1>American people the way they did with the Economic Relief package.

0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:23.680
<v Speaker 1>Why this is so important. It's one of the reasons

0:25:23.960 --> 0:25:27.639
<v Speaker 1>why that bill pulls so well. But I think ultimately,

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:31.560
<v Speaker 1>if you were a betting person, you'd say it's unlikely

0:25:31.600 --> 0:25:34.920
<v Speaker 1>Republicans would support this in light of the tax increases

0:25:34.920 --> 0:25:36.840
<v Speaker 1>that are going to be part of this, which means

0:25:36.840 --> 0:25:38.159
<v Speaker 1>you're going to have to go back and do that

0:25:38.200 --> 0:25:41.720
<v Speaker 1>budget reconciliation process. Again, Chris just got about a minute

0:25:41.720 --> 0:25:43.160
<v Speaker 1>and then we'll take a break and come back some more.

0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:45.720
<v Speaker 1>But I do wonder how do you, from your experience

0:25:45.720 --> 0:25:49.240
<v Speaker 1>of working in in in the Obama administration but also

0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:53.120
<v Speaker 1>in Congress, like, how do you how does public sentiment

0:25:53.160 --> 0:25:56.040
<v Speaker 1>play into this? I mean, I think you know, Americans

0:25:56.040 --> 0:25:58.600
<v Speaker 1>get it when they get or whatever it isn't back

0:25:58.640 --> 0:26:02.000
<v Speaker 1>in their pocket, right. Do they kind of relate with

0:26:02.080 --> 0:26:04.880
<v Speaker 1>a big infrastructure spending bill that might give them better

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:07.560
<v Speaker 1>internet or cleaner water? Do we relate well? Do we

0:26:07.600 --> 0:26:09.680
<v Speaker 1>think about that when we go to the polls? And again,

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:12.879
<v Speaker 1>just got about fifty seconds here, and it's hard because

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 1>the evidence will show that it didn't translate to political

0:26:15.840 --> 0:26:18.440
<v Speaker 1>sport in two thousand and ten. I think what will

0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:20.879
<v Speaker 1>be important is how tangible some of these things are.

0:26:21.040 --> 0:26:24.120
<v Speaker 1>People really do see the road, roads and bridges improved,

0:26:24.400 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 1>really do see investments that affect their life immediately versus

0:26:28.600 --> 0:26:31.600
<v Speaker 1>much much further down the road. The tough part is

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:34.439
<v Speaker 1>that stuff doesn't happen immediately though these are infrastructure projects

0:26:34.440 --> 0:26:38.800
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about. No, but right right, Chris, it's a while, yeah,

0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 1>And I'm not sure, like if we say we're going

0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:44.080
<v Speaker 1>to modernize our electrical grid, anybody can never notice that

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:48.080
<v Speaker 1>until we have a situation like Texas exactly. Hey, Chris,

0:26:48.080 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 1>something I wanted to ask you, and I feel like

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 1>this plays into President Biden's Infrastructure's plan and spending. Uh,

0:26:55.720 --> 0:26:59.320
<v Speaker 1>is that when you look at a nation like China,

0:26:59.440 --> 0:27:02.600
<v Speaker 1>and of course very different from the United States, certainly

0:27:02.640 --> 0:27:04.600
<v Speaker 1>in terms of its run, but it is planning for

0:27:04.680 --> 0:27:07.600
<v Speaker 1>the future and making some big investments. And we had

0:27:07.640 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 1>a really smart story in the Bloomberg yesterday that talked

0:27:10.040 --> 0:27:13.920
<v Speaker 1>about how China's COVID rebound edging it closer to overtaking

0:27:13.960 --> 0:27:17.160
<v Speaker 1>the US economy. I mean, they are doing spending today

0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:20.200
<v Speaker 1>that will give it economic momentum in the future when

0:27:20.240 --> 0:27:23.159
<v Speaker 1>you look at US versus China. What do we as

0:27:23.200 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Americans need to think about when it comes to whether

0:27:27.400 --> 0:27:30.360
<v Speaker 1>or not we are first or second um the global

0:27:30.440 --> 0:27:35.159
<v Speaker 1>economic scale. Well, that's that's a big question about what

0:27:35.200 --> 0:27:38.399
<v Speaker 1>I say that this Infrastructure Bill try to get at

0:27:38.480 --> 0:27:41.480
<v Speaker 1>some of this. Now there's obviously not one answer, but

0:27:41.960 --> 0:27:46.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, a big investment into UH school construction and

0:27:46.240 --> 0:27:49.439
<v Speaker 1>broadband and job training in shorts that we have the

0:27:49.480 --> 0:27:52.399
<v Speaker 1>workforce that we need for the twenty one century. You know,

0:27:52.440 --> 0:27:55.479
<v Speaker 1>there's about a quarter trillion dollars in this bill that

0:27:55.520 --> 0:27:58.880
<v Speaker 1>goes for R and D, including the beefing up our

0:27:58.920 --> 0:28:02.439
<v Speaker 1>federal labs and the research facilities at universities so that

0:28:02.520 --> 0:28:05.560
<v Speaker 1>we can start innovating again and building the kinds of

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:08.600
<v Speaker 1>products that should be UH that we've done, you know,

0:28:09.040 --> 0:28:11.240
<v Speaker 1>for all of the twenty century. And then the roads

0:28:11.240 --> 0:28:13.080
<v Speaker 1>and bridges really is a kind of a critical part.

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:15.040
<v Speaker 1>If we want to start to manufacture more things in

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:17.800
<v Speaker 1>the United States, we have to be able to transport

0:28:17.840 --> 0:28:21.679
<v Speaker 1>that stuff efficiently around the country. And so there's not

0:28:21.760 --> 0:28:23.920
<v Speaker 1>just one thing. It's a multiple things, and I think

0:28:23.960 --> 0:28:26.080
<v Speaker 1>that's what this bill tries to do, as well as

0:28:26.119 --> 0:28:30.480
<v Speaker 1>importantly making those investments into clean energy like solar and wind,

0:28:30.960 --> 0:28:33.600
<v Speaker 1>which are areas that we are really in direct competition

0:28:33.640 --> 0:28:36.280
<v Speaker 1>with China right now. Chris, the fact sheet from the

0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>White House that came out yesterday about the American Jobs Plan,

0:28:39.800 --> 0:28:43.240
<v Speaker 1>it mentions China five times. Is this the right way

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:46.360
<v Speaker 1>to position it to try to get some bipartisan support

0:28:46.600 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 1>for the plan? Positioning China as as as one of

0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 1>the reasons as to why Republicans should sign on along

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:56.880
<v Speaker 1>with Democrats exactly. And I do think that is oddly

0:28:57.040 --> 0:29:01.520
<v Speaker 1>one of the areas of true bipartisanship is trying to

0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:04.720
<v Speaker 1>kind of bass China, go head to head with China,

0:29:04.720 --> 0:29:06.880
<v Speaker 1>however you want to characterize it. So I think that's

0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>obviously very deliberate. On the other hand, as we talked

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:12.400
<v Speaker 1>about in the previous segment, the fact that a lot

0:29:12.400 --> 0:29:15.640
<v Speaker 1>of these investments will be paid for by rolling back

0:29:15.680 --> 0:29:18.800
<v Speaker 1>the Trump tax cuts, I think will be so problematic

0:29:18.840 --> 0:29:22.400
<v Speaker 1>for Republicans that even if there's a lot of things

0:29:22.400 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 1>in here that would help make us more competitive, it

0:29:24.880 --> 0:29:30.080
<v Speaker 1>won't overcome There are other objections, so is there a

0:29:30.120 --> 0:29:35.560
<v Speaker 1>better way to position paying for this, because it's it's

0:29:35.600 --> 0:29:42.320
<v Speaker 1>anathema to two Republicans raising raising corporate taxes. This is

0:29:42.360 --> 0:29:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the problem. I mean, you know, it became things cost money,

0:29:46.440 --> 0:29:49.640
<v Speaker 1>Thanks Cast exactly, things cost money. And this this became

0:29:49.680 --> 0:29:52.560
<v Speaker 1>the running joke over the previous four years when we

0:29:52.600 --> 0:29:55.600
<v Speaker 1>would have infrastructure every six months or so. And when

0:29:55.600 --> 0:29:59.120
<v Speaker 1>it came down to it, the concept of infrastructure was good,

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:01.240
<v Speaker 1>but if you really you wanted to go big on

0:30:01.360 --> 0:30:03.920
<v Speaker 1>the kinds of investments you need, you've got to come

0:30:04.000 --> 0:30:06.080
<v Speaker 1>up with a way to pay for it. You know.

0:30:06.200 --> 0:30:09.640
<v Speaker 1>I was struck by that annual survey that comes out

0:30:09.680 --> 0:30:12.320
<v Speaker 1>every year about the it's I think it's the the

0:30:12.480 --> 0:30:16.920
<v Speaker 1>the Association of Civil Engineers that evaluates our physical infrastructure.

0:30:17.280 --> 0:30:19.520
<v Speaker 1>And this year, I believe we got to C minus,

0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:22.520
<v Speaker 1>which I think was an improvement from where it had been,

0:30:22.560 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>which is deep plus. For years and years and years

0:30:25.000 --> 0:30:28.920
<v Speaker 1>and so there's been a constant under investment in democratic

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:32.800
<v Speaker 1>and Republican administrations, and inevitably the reason is is because

0:30:32.840 --> 0:30:35.520
<v Speaker 1>nobody wants to pay for it. And I would argue,

0:30:35.520 --> 0:30:37.320
<v Speaker 1>and I think most economists would tell you that we

0:30:37.360 --> 0:30:39.600
<v Speaker 1>either pay for this on the front end, or we're

0:30:39.600 --> 0:30:41.200
<v Speaker 1>going to pay for this on the back end in

0:30:41.320 --> 0:30:45.080
<v Speaker 1>terms of UM, a workforce that's not well trained, roads

0:30:45.080 --> 0:30:49.560
<v Speaker 1>and bridges that can't transport goods, less innovation in our country. Hey,

0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:52.320
<v Speaker 1>we've just got about a minute or so UM left here, Chris.

0:30:52.320 --> 0:30:56.040
<v Speaker 1>One thing that we wanted to ask you. UM. It

0:30:56.160 --> 0:30:57.960
<v Speaker 1>just feels like the last year we have just seen

0:30:58.200 --> 0:31:01.440
<v Speaker 1>segments of our population to get it, whether it's Black

0:31:01.440 --> 0:31:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Americans and most recently we're seeing Asian Americans targeted. And

0:31:04.920 --> 0:31:08.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm just curious what your thoughts are. Are you nervous

0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:11.800
<v Speaker 1>as you move around society because of what we've seen

0:31:11.840 --> 0:31:14.440
<v Speaker 1>as of late, the hate crimes that we're seeing against

0:31:14.640 --> 0:31:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Asians in this country. It's incredibly troubling, and it's consistent

0:31:19.000 --> 0:31:23.280
<v Speaker 1>with the rather grim history of Asians in America, where

0:31:23.680 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 1>we have been treated as outsiders, people with dual loyalties,

0:31:27.480 --> 0:31:29.680
<v Speaker 1>people who can't be trusted, really going all the way

0:31:29.720 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>back to Chinese railroad workers in Japanese, American and tournament. Obviously,

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:37.440
<v Speaker 1>the political rhetoric around COVID over the past year has

0:31:37.480 --> 0:31:41.360
<v Speaker 1>really exacerbated the problem. And frankly, the issue that we

0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:44.360
<v Speaker 1>just mentioned China is going to continue to weigh on this.

0:31:44.960 --> 0:31:47.280
<v Speaker 1>I would like to think that we can have a

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:50.080
<v Speaker 1>reason discussion about how the United States should be more

0:31:50.080 --> 0:31:54.200
<v Speaker 1>competitive against China and actually confront them on intellectual property

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:58.080
<v Speaker 1>and their military aggression without the flip side of it

0:31:58.160 --> 0:32:02.840
<v Speaker 1>being more attacks ostracism of Chinese Americans and more broadly

0:32:02.880 --> 0:32:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Asian Americans. But unfortunately, the history in our country is that,

0:32:06.360 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, when that has not been the case. Yeah,

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:12.560
<v Speaker 1>history often trips us up on this in an unfair way,

0:32:12.640 --> 0:32:14.880
<v Speaker 1>in in a wrong way. Chris, Thank you though, for

0:32:14.960 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 1>weighing in on that and so much more. Chris lou

0:32:17.240 --> 0:32:20.400
<v Speaker 1>uh Senior Fellow, University of Virginia, Miller Center, former Deputy

0:32:20.400 --> 0:32:23.080
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Labor under President Obama, joining us once again

0:32:23.360 --> 0:32:31.640
<v Speaker 1>from Charlottesville, Virginia. Christy Safe brom the Journal. Yeah but

0:32:31.760 --> 0:32:33.920
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, who's

0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:39.479
<v Speaker 1>going home? Honey? Please, I'll do the right revels. I

0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:48.360
<v Speaker 1>want to drive all just drive, baby, the questions trying.

0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll

0:32:58.360 --> 0:33:01.760
<v Speaker 1>drive us to Dawn Boomberg Radio. All right, just got

0:33:01.760 --> 0:33:03.920
<v Speaker 1>about ten minutes a little bit under, just about ten

0:33:03.920 --> 0:33:06.360
<v Speaker 1>minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap

0:33:06.480 --> 0:33:09.840
<v Speaker 1>up the holiday shortened equity I should say shortened equity

0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:14.000
<v Speaker 1>trading on this holiday week. Let's get to John train Or.

0:33:14.040 --> 0:33:16.600
<v Speaker 1>He's back with us, chief investment officer at People's United

0:33:16.600 --> 0:33:20.000
<v Speaker 1>Advisors nine billion in assets under management, on the phone

0:33:20.040 --> 0:33:22.280
<v Speaker 1>in Bridgeport, Connecticut. This on a day where we saw

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:26.440
<v Speaker 1>the S and P five breaking above four thousand, uh

0:33:26.480 --> 0:33:29.360
<v Speaker 1>and we're really seeing the bullmarket barrel on. John, good

0:33:29.360 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 1>to have you here. Four thousand. It's just a level,

0:33:32.760 --> 0:33:36.400
<v Speaker 1>but it's just a reminder that stacks continue to move higher.

0:33:37.760 --> 0:33:40.120
<v Speaker 1>Thank you for having me back. And you're correct, I mean,

0:33:40.320 --> 0:33:42.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, hitting that number. You know the numbers are

0:33:43.000 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, these psychological barriers, but it just shows you,

0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:49.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, the confidence that investors are gaining in the market,

0:33:49.760 --> 0:33:52.520
<v Speaker 1>in the economy and in the recovery. And you know,

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:54.800
<v Speaker 1>it's great to say, it's great to see and there's

0:33:54.800 --> 0:33:58.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of momentum behind that, behind that, that that

0:33:58.120 --> 0:34:01.440
<v Speaker 1>that psychology, that confidence. Well, the confidence is there and

0:34:01.480 --> 0:34:05.160
<v Speaker 1>that the reopening is happening, but how much higher can

0:34:05.200 --> 0:34:07.880
<v Speaker 1>it go this year? Well, you know, one of the

0:34:07.920 --> 0:34:10.799
<v Speaker 1>things that we're talking with clients about is you know,

0:34:10.840 --> 0:34:13.399
<v Speaker 1>it's great to see the average is moving, but what

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:16.480
<v Speaker 1>we really want to see is a broadening of the market.

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:18.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, and you know, you know last year was

0:34:18.239 --> 0:34:19.879
<v Speaker 1>really you know, if you didn't own the big five

0:34:19.920 --> 0:34:23.120
<v Speaker 1>tech stocks, you didn't participate. Well, we think this year

0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:25.200
<v Speaker 1>is going to be the story of the other four.

0:34:26.760 --> 0:34:29.040
<v Speaker 1>So you could do well this year and you not

0:34:29.200 --> 0:34:32.399
<v Speaker 1>see the averages go through the roof, but you could

0:34:32.400 --> 0:34:34.160
<v Speaker 1>do well if you do. You know, you have that

0:34:34.239 --> 0:34:37.240
<v Speaker 1>broadening of the market, a broadening of the portfolio. Listen,

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:41.239
<v Speaker 1>it's an economic recovery. I mean, whether we you know, right,

0:34:41.360 --> 0:34:44.160
<v Speaker 1>this is what we're getting ready for, provided we don't

0:34:44.160 --> 0:34:46.960
<v Speaker 1>see another you know, significant COVID outbreak that leads to

0:34:47.280 --> 0:34:49.759
<v Speaker 1>a shutting down of the US economy. But I mean,

0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:52.279
<v Speaker 1>I feel like John, everything is pointing to a very

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:55.520
<v Speaker 1>very strong second half. Having said that, how much of

0:34:55.560 --> 0:34:59.280
<v Speaker 1>it do you think is already factored into the overall trade? Well,

0:34:59.800 --> 0:35:01.160
<v Speaker 1>you're you hit the nail on the head. I do

0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:04.160
<v Speaker 1>think a good amount of it is factored in. But

0:35:04.280 --> 0:35:06.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, just think about you know, the recovery that

0:35:06.600 --> 0:35:09.200
<v Speaker 1>we still need to see on Main Street. I mean,

0:35:09.239 --> 0:35:11.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, the restaurants one of the things we'll be

0:35:11.120 --> 0:35:14.480
<v Speaker 1>watching for the unemployment number tomorrow is how many people

0:35:14.600 --> 0:35:17.880
<v Speaker 1>get rehired in the hospitality and leisure area. You know,

0:35:17.920 --> 0:35:20.759
<v Speaker 1>those are the waiters and waitresses. So there's a lot

0:35:20.880 --> 0:35:24.239
<v Speaker 1>of recovery that still needs to take place. And consumers,

0:35:24.520 --> 0:35:25.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, they need to get out, they need to

0:35:26.000 --> 0:35:28.719
<v Speaker 1>get outside. They once they get get on you know,

0:35:28.800 --> 0:35:31.279
<v Speaker 1>get back to main street. I think you'll see that

0:35:31.360 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 1>flow into the market. So we still think we're going

0:35:34.200 --> 0:35:37.239
<v Speaker 1>to see these these averages move higher. Hey, John, where

0:35:37.280 --> 0:35:41.080
<v Speaker 1>where does the economic stimulus package? And I'm not talking

0:35:41.080 --> 0:35:42.879
<v Speaker 1>about the one point nine trillion dollar when I'm talking

0:35:42.880 --> 0:35:46.680
<v Speaker 1>about two point two five trillion dollar infrastructure plan that

0:35:46.760 --> 0:35:49.960
<v Speaker 1>was announced yesterday. Where does that fit into this this picture.

0:35:50.600 --> 0:35:53.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, we've taken a look at a couple of

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:56.720
<v Speaker 1>economic estimates and and again this is this is infrastructure spending.

0:35:56.760 --> 0:35:59.000
<v Speaker 1>So this is spending that's going to be you know,

0:35:59.360 --> 0:36:01.720
<v Speaker 1>for years to come. I mean, you know, the planning

0:36:01.760 --> 0:36:05.600
<v Speaker 1>of rebuilding bridges and and all that infrastructure needs to

0:36:05.640 --> 0:36:08.359
<v Speaker 1>be done. One of the things that that has has

0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:11.520
<v Speaker 1>encouraged us about the infrastructure plan is that we were

0:36:11.560 --> 0:36:14.359
<v Speaker 1>concerned that we would have this spurt with the one

0:36:14.400 --> 0:36:17.200
<v Speaker 1>point nine trillion of spurting growth this year and then

0:36:17.360 --> 0:36:22.040
<v Speaker 1>slow down pretty dramatically in the out years. The infrastructure package.

0:36:22.080 --> 0:36:24.680
<v Speaker 1>It's not causing us to change our forecast for this year,

0:36:25.000 --> 0:36:29.320
<v Speaker 1>but we're raising our two thousand, twenty three four numbers

0:36:29.360 --> 0:36:32.080
<v Speaker 1>because of that package. So it's it's increasing our confidence

0:36:32.120 --> 0:36:35.040
<v Speaker 1>in the out years. So what the risks here? What's

0:36:35.040 --> 0:36:38.560
<v Speaker 1>the thing that we're not you know, beyond the arcticos

0:36:38.680 --> 0:36:41.719
<v Speaker 1>or our k goos however you say it blow up

0:36:41.760 --> 0:36:44.200
<v Speaker 1>which didn't really impact the overall trade, but as a

0:36:44.239 --> 0:36:49.520
<v Speaker 1>reminder that things can happen, um, you know without our

0:36:49.640 --> 0:36:52.320
<v Speaker 1>our you know, without us you know those black swans,

0:36:52.320 --> 0:36:55.400
<v Speaker 1>they do happen, even little black swans, that's right. And

0:36:55.440 --> 0:36:58.000
<v Speaker 1>it's it's really the leverage in the system. You know,

0:36:58.000 --> 0:37:00.319
<v Speaker 1>when you when you've got free money for as long

0:37:00.360 --> 0:37:02.439
<v Speaker 1>as we've had it, and that's basically what we've had

0:37:02.480 --> 0:37:04.680
<v Speaker 1>from the Fed for quite a while now. You know,

0:37:04.800 --> 0:37:07.280
<v Speaker 1>mistakes are made when you're when you're hurdle rate is zero.

0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:11.879
<v Speaker 1>Everything looks good, So I wouldn't be surprised if we see,

0:37:11.920 --> 0:37:14.680
<v Speaker 1>if we don't see some more of the heavy, heavily

0:37:14.800 --> 0:37:19.520
<v Speaker 1>levered investors. The hedge funds primarily have problems going forward

0:37:19.560 --> 0:37:21.520
<v Speaker 1>because there are a lot of leverage bets out there

0:37:21.920 --> 0:37:24.600
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think we've seen the end of that.

0:37:25.000 --> 0:37:28.160
<v Speaker 1>Um So the leverage in the system is is a

0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:30.640
<v Speaker 1>is a concern, but you know that the bigger issue,

0:37:31.040 --> 0:37:34.040
<v Speaker 1>um we and we haven't seen it. Investors in the

0:37:34.080 --> 0:37:37.560
<v Speaker 1>bond market are basically still saying the Fed is going

0:37:37.600 --> 0:37:40.600
<v Speaker 1>to do a good job and keep keep inflation under control.

0:37:40.840 --> 0:37:43.200
<v Speaker 1>That to us, that's the big question. Mark Joe wis

0:37:43.239 --> 0:37:44.560
<v Speaker 1>and though I don't have the note in front of me,

0:37:44.600 --> 0:37:46.120
<v Speaker 1>but puts out a note every morning, but kind of

0:37:46.120 --> 0:37:48.560
<v Speaker 1>the five things you need to know every morning. And

0:37:48.600 --> 0:37:50.480
<v Speaker 1>one of the things he had a guest on recently

0:37:50.640 --> 0:37:52.880
<v Speaker 1>that when you look at the activity, and forgive me,

0:37:52.880 --> 0:37:55.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm not probably not going to do the best summary,

0:37:55.480 --> 0:37:58.239
<v Speaker 1>but it's basically this whole idea that you know, back

0:37:58.280 --> 0:38:01.239
<v Speaker 1>in January, things everything was falling apart. We were looking

0:38:01.239 --> 0:38:05.120
<v Speaker 1>at rising virus cases, looking at another wave. We didn't

0:38:05.120 --> 0:38:07.640
<v Speaker 1>have all the economic recovery packages in place, and it

0:38:07.680 --> 0:38:10.160
<v Speaker 1>felt like everything was coming undone. And then here we get,

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:13.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, trillions back into the economy and we're now

0:38:13.080 --> 0:38:16.279
<v Speaker 1>talking about crazy growth numbers for the second half, and

0:38:16.320 --> 0:38:18.440
<v Speaker 1>the bond market is just reflecting that. And did it

0:38:18.440 --> 0:38:20.799
<v Speaker 1>pretty quickly? Is that something you think about and just

0:38:20.880 --> 0:38:24.399
<v Speaker 1>got about thirty seconds, actually about twenty seconds. No, No,

0:38:24.480 --> 0:38:27.040
<v Speaker 1>And what we're looking at. Yes, we've seen introt frates

0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:29.279
<v Speaker 1>go up, but we haven't really seen, you know, the

0:38:29.400 --> 0:38:32.400
<v Speaker 1>real rate go through the roof. And we believe the

0:38:32.440 --> 0:38:34.719
<v Speaker 1>bond market, even though rates are moving up, the bond

0:38:34.800 --> 0:38:37.120
<v Speaker 1>market is still saying the Fed is in control and

0:38:37.200 --> 0:38:40.839
<v Speaker 1>the good job. Hey, John, have a good weekend. Thanks

0:38:40.840 --> 0:38:43.400
<v Speaker 1>for stopping by, John Train, our chief investment officer, People's

0:38:43.480 --> 0:38:49.400
<v Speaker 1>United Advisors on the phone and Bridgeport, Connecticut. Thanks for

0:38:49.440 --> 0:38:53.160
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:38:53.320 --> 0:38:55.480
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:38:55.480 --> 0:38:58.080
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0:38:58.200 --> 0:39:06.880
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