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Speaker 2: Welcome to the fastest show in politics. This is kind
Speaker 2: of like the old days, Remember the fastest hour in politics.
Speaker 2: That's what we have today. As we hand things off
Speaker 2: to our colleagues a little early today at Bloomberg Business Week.
Speaker 2: It is the tenth of October and we're tracking Milton
Speaker 2: along with the candidates here as always, the President getting
Speaker 2: his daily brief today and being brief throughout the day
Speaker 2: on Hurricane Milton. With the storyline here could have been
Speaker 2: a lot worse, certainly according to people on the ground.
Speaker 2: There are still a lot of issues to deal with though,
Speaker 2: more than three minute million people without power of storm
Speaker 2: serves that has left floodwaters in many places contaminated. A
Speaker 2: real issue today as rescue crews start their work here,
Speaker 2: the storm is blasting out into the Atlantic, and we
Speaker 2: have Lauren Rosenthal back with us. Has been an indispensable
Speaker 2: voice since we first heard the word Helene. Now we've
Speaker 2: added the name Milton. She is Bloomberg's weather reporter, and
Speaker 2: Lauren joins us from world headquarters in New York, so
Speaker 2: it's made its way across the state here. Lauren, how
Speaker 2: would you describe the impact of this storm.
Speaker 3: We knew that there would be a lot of water
Speaker 3: and a lot of flooding from Hurricane Milton, and that
Speaker 3: has definitely turned out to be the case. While storm
Speaker 3: surge estimates are still rolling in and it's going to
Speaker 3: take some time because you know, readings are difficult to confirm.
Speaker 3: They'll have to get crews out to look at high
Speaker 3: water marks on some buildings. It looks like surge was
Speaker 3: about five to eight feet in the Tampa Bay area.
Speaker 3: That is a lot of water. Has caused a lot
Speaker 3: of localized flooding. And we also saw record breaking one
Speaker 3: day rainfall from Hurricane Milk, and yesterday more than eighteen
Speaker 3: inches of rain fell at an airport in Saint Petersburg.
Speaker 3: That beats the existing record by more than half a foot.
Speaker 3: So there is a lot of water. You know, it's
Speaker 3: complicating efforts to get to people to see how communities
Speaker 3: are doing, to try to start assessing the damage and
Speaker 3: then figuring out where to go next to see.
Speaker 2: The roof torn off Tropicana Field was pretty remarkable. Some
Speaker 2: of the optics here. But the narrative, and you can
Speaker 2: tell me if this is even fair, Lauren, is that
Speaker 2: the state managed to avoid a worst case scenario. Is
Speaker 2: that true?
Speaker 3: That's definitely what we're hearing from. I think it was
Speaker 3: Governor Ron De Santis said that at a briefing this morning. Yeah,
Speaker 3: you know, there was the potential for significantly higher surge.
Speaker 3: There was a real concern that Tampa Bay would see
Speaker 3: its first direct hit from a landfalling hurricane in more
Speaker 3: than a century, which would have caused catastrophic damage, you know,
Speaker 3: in a region that's home to more than three million people.
Speaker 3: The storm hit slightly further south, obviously, as some emergency
Speaker 3: managers told me even before landfall. You know, if Tampa
Speaker 3: is spared a direct hit, it is still really bad
Speaker 3: for someone else. And I think that's still what we'll
Speaker 3: be seeing over the coming days. This is going to
Speaker 3: be a complicated recovery, especially on the heels of Hurricane
Speaker 3: Helene just two weeks ago.
Speaker 2: Understood, and it's a really important point that you that
Speaker 2: you make. The National Hurricane Center says, as of at
Speaker 2: least the update one hour ago, that Milton could still
Speaker 2: cause quote considerable urban flooding unquote in some areas, as
Speaker 2: additional rainfalls on a swath of the state between Orlando
Speaker 2: and Jacksonville. Laura, and how how worried should we be
Speaker 2: about what's left here?
Speaker 3: I definitely think, you know, the risk is not over.
Speaker 3: You know, Milton is a very large storm now. Its
Speaker 3: tropical storm force winds extend for more than three hundred miles.
Speaker 3: So even though Milton's eye is close to pushing back
Speaker 3: out over the over the open ocean, it's winds and
Speaker 3: rain are still going to leave lingering effects for the
Speaker 3: eastern coast of Florida. They're definitely not out of the
Speaker 3: woods yet. The Hurricane Center is advising people to please
Speaker 3: pay attention to local flood warnings, to be careful with
Speaker 3: those winds. Eighty miles an hour right now. Top sustained
Speaker 3: winds in higher gusts possible. It's definitely not something you
Speaker 3: want to take lightly.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Lauren. Lauren Rosenthal Bloomberg Weather Report
Speaker 2: are doing great work for us here to keep tabs
Speaker 2: on this storm. It's not over yet. A boil water
Speaker 2: notice issued. I see clearly here in Saint Petersburg due
Speaker 2: to water main breaks from Hurricane Milton. A city wide
Speaker 2: boil water notice is now in effect for Saint Peter's
Speaker 2: purg Gulf Port, South Pasadena. Lielman, this is the case
Speaker 2: all around a large swath of the Gulf Coast of Florida
Speaker 2: where clean water is going to be an issue. A
Speaker 2: lot of the floodwaters have been contaminated by sewage. So
Speaker 2: we've got got a power situation, a water situation for
Speaker 2: at least those who have been left behind, and they
Speaker 2: include Kathy Caster, the Democrat from Florida's fourteenth district. The
Speaker 2: congresswoman was with us ahead of the storm and is
Speaker 2: back with us now on the line having lost power
Speaker 2: with more than three million people out. Congresswoman, I thank
Speaker 2: you for making the time to talk to us today
Speaker 2: in the throes of the recovery of this storm. Can
Speaker 2: you just give us the lay of the land where
Speaker 2: you are now?
Speaker 4: Yeah, thank you, Joe. This is a harsh double whammage,
Speaker 4: Hurricane Helene then Hurricane Milton within two weeks. That so
Speaker 4: we're grappling with the short term challenges that you've mentioned
Speaker 4: power outages, fuel shortages, critical infrastructure, water and wastewater that
Speaker 4: need to be repaired. But I'll tell you the long
Speaker 4: term economic harm to our way of life in Florida
Speaker 4: also is going to be critical. We're already suffering property
Speaker 4: insurance crisis. We pay the highest rates by far than
Speaker 4: any place across the country. Electric bills have been out
Speaker 4: of sight, and this is the new abnormal. I'm afraid
Speaker 4: because of extreme hot temperatures an overheating Gulf of Mexico.
Speaker 4: It's my fear that this will become routine. So what
Speaker 4: I'll be looking for in a disaster supplemental in Congress
Speaker 4: is safeguarding taxpayer dollars.
Speaker 2: Build it.
Speaker 4: When we build back, do it in a more resilient way,
Speaker 4: do it in a smarter way. For example, McDill air
Speaker 4: Force Space is a critical economic engine here. They've had
Speaker 4: some flooding. How do we safeguard the missions at the
Speaker 4: base safe? Same thing for our Coastguard Air station and
Speaker 4: clear water, and then the City of Tampa Kinells County
Speaker 4: all of our water and wastewater rebuilding. We're going to
Speaker 4: have to be smarter about how we'll do it.
Speaker 2: Well, that's you just said a lot kid with someone.
Speaker 2: I want to unpack some of the things that you
Speaker 2: just said, if you can bear with me through a
Speaker 2: couple of questions here. We understand that swift water teams
Speaker 2: were active overnight and have continued with water rescues this morning.
Speaker 2: Do those continue now? Are we getting beyond the rescue
Speaker 2: phase of this operation? I think we may have lost
Speaker 2: the congress woman. Can you hear me, congress Woman Caster,
Speaker 2: I can hear you now, got you? Are there still
Speaker 2: water rescues underway?
Speaker 5: Now?
Speaker 2: We know that swift boat teams were out overnight.
Speaker 4: Yes, there are. There's one assisted living facility in Northampa
Speaker 4: near the University of South Florida where they are sending
Speaker 4: school buses over to get folks out. Because this was
Speaker 4: much more of a rain event. There are places that
Speaker 4: maybe they didn't flood during Helene. That was a coastal
Speaker 4: flood surge event. So this is a real double whammy,
Speaker 4: and the first course of business is making sure everyone
Speaker 4: is is safe. Many that's a saving grace. They went
Speaker 4: to shelters, they left the evacuation zones, and I think
Speaker 4: that's why the loss of life is going to be
Speaker 4: minimal here in the Tampa Bay area, But I really
Speaker 4: feel for the folks who had to deal with these
Speaker 4: outrageous tornadoes on the eastern side of the state.
Speaker 2: It's very scary stuff. A congresswoman, we're showing our viewers
Speaker 2: images of Tropicana Field, which is now convertible after last
Speaker 2: night we saw actual rain water on the grass in
Speaker 2: the park here. You mentioned people in shelters. There are
Speaker 2: more than seventy thousand in government shelters now that stadium
Speaker 2: was supposed to be one of them. Does Florida have
Speaker 2: room for everyone? We do.
Speaker 4: A lot of our public schools are converted over to shelters.
Speaker 4: But I think a serious long term issue will be
Speaker 4: the tens of thousands of my neighbors who were flooded
Speaker 4: out by Hurricane Helene. And where are they going to go?
Speaker 4: They have all of their their lives out on the
Speaker 4: in their front yards. They tried to collect as much free,
Speaker 4: but where where are we going to house them? And
Speaker 4: thank goodness, FEMA is here delivering the disaster aid into
Speaker 4: people's bank accounts that they need. I've heard of thousands
Speaker 4: of dollars going into people's bank accounts to make sure
Speaker 4: that they can relocate pay rent and get us the
Speaker 4: assistance they need.
Speaker 2: Well, that's awfully important based on some of the misinformation
Speaker 2: that surrounded the response to Hurricane Helene. You can tell
Speaker 2: us then that FEMA is on the ground and is
Speaker 2: active now on this day after the storm.
Speaker 4: Yes, they were, They were active in the days after Helene.
Speaker 4: FEAMA Administrator Dan Chriswell was here last week talking with
Speaker 4: Mayor Castor Tampa, Mayor Welch of Saint Petersburg. She's going
Speaker 4: to be back. President Biden is checking in with all
Speaker 4: of US. Vice President Harris. This is a this is
Speaker 4: an unprecedented response I've seen by THEEMA of the largest
Speaker 4: mobilization in recent history, and we're gonna need it. We're
Speaker 4: going to need everyone's help to rebuild and do it
Speaker 4: in a smarter way and take care of our neighbors.
Speaker 2: We're spending time talking with Congresswoman Kathy cast who represents
Speaker 2: Florida's fourteenth district that includes the Tampa Bay area, and
Speaker 2: she's on the phone right now because she has no
Speaker 2: power like three million other people in that part of Florida. Congresswoman,
Speaker 2: you mentioned funding for FEMA. We understand the agency does
Speaker 2: have enough money for the Individual Assistance Program, but there
Speaker 2: are some worries about the SBA not being able to
Speaker 2: help businesses turn the lights back on. You mentioned the
Speaker 2: possibility of a supplemental or an emergency request, and I
Speaker 2: saw a posting on Twitter from your Republican colleague in
Speaker 2: the House, Annapolina Luna of all People, Congresswoman. It looks
Speaker 2: like she is working with President Biden. Here she says
Speaker 2: he is personally overseeing that FEMA does not create problems
Speaker 2: with debris removal and is supportive of fifteen billion in
Speaker 2: FEMA funds only for hurricane victims. It sounds like the
Speaker 2: Florida delegation is working with the administration on this. What
Speaker 2: can you tell us.
Speaker 4: It is going to take a bipartisan, cooperative response to
Speaker 4: get the disaster supplemental that we need. I don't think
Speaker 4: fifteen billion is going to cover everything that we're going
Speaker 4: to need for Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina especially,
Speaker 4: But okay, yes, we're going to need those SBA funds.
Speaker 4: They're very important for business and individuals to rebuild over
Speaker 4: the long term. And then all of the critical water
Speaker 4: wastewater infrastructure is going to have a price tag to it.
Speaker 2: Anna Paulina Luna writing on ex Congresswoman, this needs to happen.
Speaker 2: Speaker Johnson call us back. Is that the case? And
Speaker 2: have you heard from leadership about this yet?
Speaker 4: I haven't heard from Republican leadership, but I just got
Speaker 4: off the phone with the lead Democrat from Rosa Delaro
Speaker 4: of Connecticut, who is asking for us to be working
Speaker 4: with our local and federal partner track of the harm
Speaker 4: and the damages here so that we can get things
Speaker 4: rebuilt as quickly as possible. But this is going to
Speaker 4: be job one for the Congress when we come back,
Speaker 4: and it's and as I said, if we're going to
Speaker 4: safeguard the taxpayer dollars, we have to rebuild in a
Speaker 4: more resilient way in our energy systems, our water systems,
Speaker 4: and where we allow development to.
Speaker 2: Hopefully you're still with us, Congressman. I know that there's
Speaker 2: a lot of demand on the cell phone infrastructure in
Speaker 2: Florida right now without power especially, can you still hear us, Congresswoman?
Speaker 4: I can?
Speaker 2: Okay, great, I'll ask you lastly, and you've been very
Speaker 2: generous with your time, that there was an executive order
Speaker 2: issued by Governor Ron DeSantis allowing elections supervisors to consolidate
Speaker 2: voting centers or relocate them if they're flooded or destroyed,
Speaker 2: easing some rules as well for mail in ballots. Is
Speaker 2: enough being done to help people access ballots as early
Speaker 2: voting continues ahead.
Speaker 4: Of November, this is going to be a primary focus, Joe,
Speaker 4: because in Hillsborough County vote by mail ballots arrived in
Speaker 4: mailboxes last Saturday, So if you had been flooded out
Speaker 4: of your home like tens of thousands were during Helene,
Speaker 4: I'm not sure you received that ballot. So we're going
Speaker 4: to need a lot of flexibility. But right now it's
Speaker 4: I think it's making sure everyone is safe. And then
Speaker 4: there'll be plenty of times for elections, but will need
Speaker 4: the extra time and extra flexibility for sure.
Speaker 2: I can't thank you enough for giving us your time,
Speaker 2: Congress On, I'm sure you're hearing not only from constituents
Speaker 2: but family and friends, and I appreciate your time today.
Speaker 2: Kathy cast Florida's fourteenth district, of course, right where the
Speaker 2: hurricane went through in the wee hours of this morning
Speaker 2: late last night. In fact, a congresswoman caster has no power,
Speaker 2: which is why she was on the line with us,
Speaker 2: and we appreciate the insights here. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.
Speaker 2: Glad you're with us today on balance of power as
Speaker 2: we gauge the aftermath of this storm, the political impacts,
Speaker 2: of course, the economic impacts as well. On this CPI day,
Speaker 2: there are some concerns about the potential for inflation and
Speaker 2: things like fertilizer and other items that are made in
Speaker 2: the storm path. I will mention as well. The White
Speaker 2: House has just added some remarks from the President who's
Speaker 2: being briefed we're told throughout the day to day from
Speaker 2: FEMA officials. Two pm Eastern time, Joe Biden will deliver
Speaker 2: remarks on the initial impacts of Milton. I'm just reading
Speaker 2: directly from the White House schedule here that was just released.
Speaker 2: He will talk as well about the ongoing support to
Speaker 2: state and local officials. Will do that from the old
Speaker 2: Executive Office building next door across the driveway from the
Speaker 2: West Wing. We'll have ears on that for you. Our
Speaker 2: panel is on the way in next Davis and Genie
Speaker 2: Shanzano this day after the storm, on the fastest hour
Speaker 2: in politics. Glad you're with us. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kench
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Speaker 2: CPI Day. Charlie Pellett with the deep tease. Yeah, Molly
Speaker 2: Smith is coming in. You heard the words, he said,
Speaker 2: higher than expected and that's kind of all you need
Speaker 2: to know today if you're paying attention to that job
Speaker 2: support last week. Now everybody, all the naysayers have a
Speaker 2: little more grist for the mill. And yes, Molly Smith
Speaker 2: with us after an early morning editing the copy here
Speaker 2: on the terminal and online. She's Bloomberg's economics editor. Molly.
Speaker 2: It's great to see you. You connect the dots, and
Speaker 2: you know, as journalists we like to try to reach
Speaker 2: for a trend, and this is pouring a little bit
Speaker 2: of cold water on the idea of winning the war
Speaker 2: on inflation. But is that the case or does it
Speaker 2: simply remind us that this doesn't move in a straight line.
Speaker 6: Exactly. That's more of the takeaway that this is going
Speaker 6: to be a bumpy path. We actually just heard New
Speaker 6: York Fed President John Williams described that there were going
Speaker 6: to be quote wiggles along the way. I thought that
Speaker 6: was a fun way of describing it. So it's not
Speaker 6: a straight line down. But that said, it does seem
Speaker 6: to be that the fundamental drivers of disinflation are still intact,
Speaker 6: and we got good news on that front, at least
Speaker 6: in today's report showing that shelter costs, I mean, that's
Speaker 6: really been the big one holding back the bigger progress.
Speaker 6: That housing costs did moderate in September, so that was
Speaker 6: very welcome to see. But of course you don't like
Speaker 6: to see the things that flared up. You know, car
Speaker 6: prices were a big one. Also saw apparel, car insurance,
Speaker 6: stadium admissions for sporting events that tied in with the
Speaker 6: start of the NFL season. So yeah, definitely a lot
Speaker 6: of things there that I think think economists seemed to
Speaker 6: be painting more is one offs and not so much
Speaker 6: the big drivers of what's going to bring inflation down.
Speaker 2: Okay, so that's good. We're not going to freak out today.
Speaker 2: What do we learn about shelter prices this time. I
Speaker 2: know that's something you've been watching closely.
Speaker 6: Definitely, Yeah, this was really welcome to see that shelter
Speaker 6: was up zero point two percent on the month, and
Speaker 6: that's compared two point five percent in August, so a
Speaker 6: really big step down there. The thing is, though a
Speaker 6: lot of it was by hotel prices, which can be
Speaker 6: really volatile from month to month, and people had actually
Speaker 6: been expecting hotel prices to go up in September and
Speaker 6: to see them fall was quite a big surprise. So
Speaker 6: that dragged down the overall shelter measure. But the thing
Speaker 6: that you really want to look at within shelter is
Speaker 6: how people are, you know, their actual housing costs, not
Speaker 6: just the hotel stays. So those ones were definitely more tame,
Speaker 6: those rental measures. So was that was definitely good to
Speaker 6: see today.
Speaker 2: So the next question, of course, needs to be about
Speaker 2: the FED, right, I was looking at writing from our
Speaker 2: colleagues at Bloomberg Economicsannah Wong and Stuart Paul, despite the
Speaker 2: upside surprise, they say, and this kind of echoes your point,
Speaker 2: we do not think the report will alter the fomc's
Speaker 2: view that inflation is on a down trend trajectory, So
Speaker 2: what does that mean for rates going forward?
Speaker 6: So it looks like, based on the trading in the
Speaker 6: market today, that there's just more conviction for the November
Speaker 6: meeting to be a twenty five basis point cut, which
Speaker 6: was already moving in that direction after the strong jobs
Speaker 6: report last week that you mentioned. Honestly, I'm I was
Speaker 6: thinking there might be a bit more argument that there
Speaker 6: could be some debate as to whether there's a pause
Speaker 6: after these latest two data points that came in pretty strong.
Speaker 6: But you also had jobless claims today rise to the
Speaker 6: highest level in over a year. Definitely reflected some weakness
Speaker 6: from Hurricane Helene in there, with claims in North Carolina
Speaker 6: very high, but also a lot in Michigan. So might
Speaker 6: be some more going on in the manufacturing sector there.
Speaker 2: Gotcha great, Great to talk to Molly Smith. As always,
Speaker 2: people get all worked up at eight thirty, right you
Speaker 2: start calling in trades, everyone freaks out. Then you talk
Speaker 2: to Molly. You reminded this will come up the next day.
Speaker 2: Thank you, as always, Molly Smith in New York, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Economics Editor. As I remind you, now this is all
Speaker 2: we're going to get this is it. September Consumer Price
Speaker 2: Index report is the last one before the election, and
Speaker 2: for that matter, before the next FED meeting, which is
Speaker 2: at least it begins the day after the election. Our
Speaker 2: signature panel is with us on this important economic day.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are here, of course, both
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. She is political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 2: He is a partner at stone Court Capital. So it's
Speaker 2: an interesting moment here, Genie, this is all we're going
Speaker 2: to get. There's no more debates. Donald Trump said just
Speaker 2: yesterday he's not going to do it again with Kamala Harris,
Speaker 2: and we're pretty much all out of the big economic data.
Speaker 2: Is it time to start closing arguments?
Speaker 5: Well, you know, and he not only said it, Joe,
Speaker 5: as you know, he said it in all caps. So
Speaker 5: I guess that means fair enough. Fine, No today, Maybe
Speaker 5: he'll change his mind. But you know, I think, you know,
Speaker 5: they are making something of closing arguments, but you just
Speaker 5: got to underscore how important the news is today and
Speaker 5: the economy is overall. I was really struck by the
Speaker 5: latest Gallup pole which said that is the issue fifty
Speaker 5: two percent of Americans agree on as the most important issue,
Speaker 5: describing it as extremely important, another thirty eight saying very important.
Speaker 5: So you're up in the eighty percent plus range of
Speaker 5: Americans who say the economy is it for them when
Speaker 5: they go in the polling booth. And so what that
Speaker 5: means is in these closing statements, so to speak, they
Speaker 5: better be focusing Harrison Trump on the economy and what
Speaker 5: their plans are. That has got to be the number
Speaker 5: one issue that they talk about. And so far, I
Speaker 5: think the two of them have done that to a
Speaker 5: certain extent. But you can't do it enough. So they've
Speaker 5: got to get on this economic policy bandwagon.
Speaker 2: It's a very important point that Genie makes here. That
Speaker 2: gallup pulled out yesterday finds the economy is the number
Speaker 2: one issue for both Republicans and Democrats. A majority of
Speaker 2: voters put them together fifty two percent, with a pretty
Speaker 2: start partisan divide. Rick On on the way you look
Speaker 2: at the economy based on all the data, now we've
Speaker 2: got what we're going to get. The snapshot of the
Speaker 2: economy on the eve of this election favors whom look
Speaker 2: I think that it.
Speaker 7: Really it favors those who looking through the prism of
Speaker 7: who you like for president. As you point out, if
Speaker 7: you're a Republican, you think the economy is horrible, if
Speaker 7: you think if you're a Democrat, you think the economy
Speaker 7: is great. Now it helps that the news today, for instance,
Speaker 7: on CPI is pretty good. It helps that this week
Speaker 7: we've had a record you know, run up in the markets,
Speaker 7: and so consumer attitudes are improving. But I would say,
Speaker 7: if you're the Biden administration, if you're the Harris campaign,
Speaker 7: you wanted to have seen a lot more improvement in
Speaker 7: these metrics by now. How much of this is going
Speaker 7: to seep in between now an election day? I really question,
Speaker 7: because you have a lot of people voting today. They're
Speaker 7: voting on the economy that they woke up to today,
Speaker 7: and so do they feel better about it than they
Speaker 7: did four years ago under Donald Trump? And I do
Speaker 7: think one of the unique things in this election is
Speaker 7: Donald Trump left office in twenty twenty with a thirty
Speaker 7: five percent approval rating or something near there. Today he
Speaker 7: has a fifty percent job approval rating as president. So
Speaker 7: people have forgotten what they didn't like and have focus
Speaker 7: on what they liked. So that's as much of what
Speaker 7: they're battling as the economy itself.
Speaker 2: So what do you think, Genie, The S and P
Speaker 2: five hundred hit it's forty fourth record high of the
Speaker 2: year yesterday. When you listen to what Rick Davis just said,
Speaker 2: think about the broad snapshot on the economy, knowing the
Speaker 2: different ways that d's and rs look at that, you
Speaker 2: can't argue the forty fourth record high on the S
Speaker 2: and P five hundred. To what extent does the wealth
Speaker 2: effect from this market help the incumbent if at all?
Speaker 2: Wall Street seems that at least there's a narrative that
Speaker 2: Wall Street favors Donald Trump because of a lower corporate
Speaker 2: tax rate. But is this something that the Harris campaign
Speaker 2: needs to start highlighting in the closing hours of this campaign.
Speaker 5: Oh? Absolutely, you know. I will go to my grave
Speaker 5: hopefully not soon, so to speak, saying that September eighteenth
Speaker 5: was the best day for Kamala Harris and the Harris
Speaker 5: campaign because of the drop in interest rates. Those macroeconomic
Speaker 5: numbers help them. They need to talk about them, and
Speaker 5: they need to keep talking about them. But the reality
Speaker 5: is they also have to understand where people are when
Speaker 5: they go to the grocery store and go to get
Speaker 5: gas and the costs are high, and so they've had
Speaker 5: this really difficult challenge as the incumbent, so to speak,
Speaker 5: of walking that line. And I thought, that's why what
Speaker 5: Kamala Harris started to do on the View the other
Speaker 5: day is something that she should do all the time,
Speaker 5: which is keep introducing new economic policies. In this case,
Speaker 5: she was talking about how to help the you know
Speaker 5: about one hundred million Americans who are trying to care
Speaker 5: for elderly people in their homes. Now, whether that is
Speaker 5: economically sound I have some questions about, and of course
Speaker 5: it got overshadowed by her hugging of Joe Biden. But
Speaker 5: that aside, she needs to be putting out these economic
Speaker 5: ideas and she needs to stick with them, and she
Speaker 5: needs to talk about this at these macro numbers that
Speaker 5: look good for them, and keep talking about how she's
Speaker 5: going to do things better than Joe Biden did or
Speaker 5: differently as it pertains to costs. Especially.
Speaker 2: I don't know who keeping track I understand, Genie, I
Speaker 2: don't know who's keeping track of all these proposals on
Speaker 2: the daily though you mentioned that one from Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: too days ago, right involving support for home health aids. Rick.
Speaker 2: Last night, Donald Trump dropped another one, no income tax
Speaker 2: on expats. We're the tenth of October. At what point
Speaker 2: does the window close on new proposals? How much more
Speaker 2: room do people have in their brains for this? Yeah?
Speaker 7: I think the window closed a long time ago. I mean,
Speaker 7: you you hit it, Joe. I mean, politics is about repetition.
Speaker 7: There's gonna be no recall. If I took a poll
Speaker 7: today and ask people, you know, what have you seen
Speaker 7: right or heard about these campaigns lately?
Speaker 2: And you asked Donald Trump.
Speaker 7: Supporters, you know what they think, and they're not going
Speaker 7: to be able to repeat any of this stuff. They've
Speaker 7: heard it one time. That's why you do advertising over
Speaker 7: and over and over on the same issue, because it's
Speaker 7: hard to get through to these voters. They got a
Speaker 7: few distractions in places like Georgia and Florida and North Carolina,
Speaker 7: you know. And so this, this is an incredible mistake
Speaker 7: that both campaigns are making that in the last you know,
Speaker 7: four weeks of the election, they're introducing new ideas into
Speaker 7: the voters. It's only going to add confusion. I mean,
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris is fighting yesterday's battle yesterday's battle was you're
Speaker 7: not detailed enough.
Speaker 2: We don't know your proposals.
Speaker 7: She's done as much as she could do on that,
Speaker 7: and now's the time just to reinforce. Reinforce, reinforce.
Speaker 2: Advice from Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano. I hope they're listening.
Speaker 2: I know they like to get this program whenever they can,
Speaker 2: not just on the radio, but on YouTube, where you
Speaker 2: can find us now search Bloomberg Business News Live. Because
Speaker 2: we're not done with our panel. Coming up next a
Speaker 2: lot more with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano and the
Speaker 2: politics of a hurricane. We've just had another set of
Speaker 2: remarks added by Joe Biden. He's going to address the
Speaker 2: nation coming up at about ninety minutes with the initial
Speaker 2: reaction the response to Hurricane Milton. Avoided the worst in Florida,
Speaker 2: but they're still dealing with a very dangerous situation, as
Speaker 2: we heard from Congresswoman Caster early this hour. We'll have
Speaker 2: much more ahead on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: CPI Thursday, known to some as Little Friday. Welcome to
Speaker 2: the fastest show in politics, the fastest hour in politics.
Speaker 2: Today it's like the old days as we hand things
Speaker 2: over a little early to Bloomberg Business Week and an
Speaker 2: important series of conversations ahead coming up from screen time
Speaker 2: in la they are convening a meeting as we speak
Speaker 2: in the Situation Room at the White House. President Biden
Speaker 2: and the Vice President, along with members of the administration,
Speaker 2: getting together to talk about the impacts of hurricanes Milton
Speaker 2: and Helen, of course within two weeks of each other.
Speaker 2: At two pm Eastern time, Joe Biden will be holding
Speaker 2: forth with an update from the White House. Much like yesterday,
Speaker 2: He'll be addressing the American people about the initial impacts
Speaker 2: of this storm. And of course we've got a lot
Speaker 2: of different layers of polic surrounding natural disasters this week
Speaker 2: that we want to talk about with our political panel.
Speaker 2: But I have to first not only bring in Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. You know them
Speaker 2: well if you're here every day on this program. She
Speaker 2: is political science professor at Iona University. He is partner
Speaker 2: at stone Court Capital. But if you hear this hour
Speaker 2: typically the twelve New hour, you never get to hang
Speaker 2: out with Kaylee, and so we thought we'd bring Kaylee
Speaker 2: Lines in as well. Of course, normally you hear her
Speaker 2: at one pm Eastern time. Nice to see you, Thanks
Speaker 2: for coming over. I thought we'd hang out for a
Speaker 2: little bit. Absolutely. Yes, we have Rick, we have Genie,
Speaker 2: we have Kaylee, which means that we can do anything here.
Speaker 2: You know, last evening was something listening to Joe Biden
Speaker 2: actually fact checking Donald Trump from the White House, and
Speaker 2: you wonder if he gets into that more today.
Speaker 8: Well, he very well might, as he is making the
Speaker 8: case that the government is there to help people despite
Speaker 8: some of the misinformation that is out there. The concern,
Speaker 8: of course being that it is going to affect human lives.
Speaker 8: We already have seen lives that were lost in the
Speaker 8: storm when it made landfall in Florida yesterday. Still millions
Speaker 8: without power. Access to clean drinking water an issue in
Speaker 8: some areas, and when humanity hangs in the balance, perhaps
Speaker 8: that underscores the need to make sure the facts.
Speaker 2: Are out there yeah, and that's for sure. Let's start
Speaker 2: with our panel and see how this is playing. I
Speaker 2: can go in a lot of different directions here, Rick Davis,
Speaker 2: whether it's misinformation or just actually getting the job done.
Speaker 2: But there are political implications anytime you see the recovery
Speaker 2: from a storm. Here is Florida. Now on the second storm,
Speaker 2: I'm going to go through what we did the first
Speaker 2: time with misinformation and rumors and social media and the
Speaker 2: fact checking and all the rest of it. Or have
Speaker 2: we've gotten that out of our systems?
Speaker 7: You know, I don't think we've gotten out of our systems.
Speaker 7: I woke up this morning reading a piece that James
Speaker 7: Carvell was talking about, and he was criticizing the Harris
Speaker 7: and Biden administration for losing ground on the narrative about
Speaker 7: how effective these kinds of responses are going to be.
Speaker 7: And even though you have to sort through all this
Speaker 7: this and MISSI and you know it's being done for primarily,
Speaker 7: if not singularly, political purposes, you have to respect the
Speaker 7: fact that James Carver makes the point that if you
Speaker 7: lose the control of the narrative, then what is being
Speaker 7: put out there as misinformation becomes the truth to many voters,
Speaker 7: and so it doesn't surprise me that President of the
Speaker 7: United States has to go out and knock down these
Speaker 7: rumors because he runs the risk of getting and run
Speaker 7: by a fake narrative that people have a tendency to
Speaker 7: right now believe conspiracy theories, and some of them are
Speaker 7: so outlantish you can dismiss them, but not all of them.
Speaker 7: And so I think you're going to see a real
Speaker 7: effort on the part of the Harris campaign and the
Speaker 7: Biden White House to try and knock this stuff down
Speaker 7: so they don't lose control over a narrative, which is
Speaker 7: the American government stands by people who have been injured,
Speaker 7: in lost property and lives from these natural disasters, and
Speaker 7: that that should not be at all a question that
Speaker 7: we're going to do everything we can to support.
Speaker 8: Them, well everything they can, Genie doesn't necessarily mean that
Speaker 8: rescue and recovery efforts will go perfectly, as we saw
Speaker 8: in North Carolina. While there broadly was applauding for the
Speaker 8: emergency personnel who did respond, we know there were some
Speaker 8: delays in western parts of the state. Access was an issue.
Speaker 8: The troops didn't necessarily get there on the timeline that
Speaker 8: was originally proposed. If there are weaknesses any of them
Speaker 8: in the federal response, even if by and large they
Speaker 8: do try to show up in the best way possible
Speaker 8: for these people who are affected, how poorly does that
Speaker 8: reflect back on the Vice president herself since she is
Speaker 8: the candidate in consideration here?
Speaker 5: It's an enormous problem, And you know, I am surprised
Speaker 5: I have to say that Joe Biden is going out
Speaker 5: and trying to fact check on this. The reality is
Speaker 5: Joe Biden is not a great communicator at this point.
Speaker 5: God bless him. He wants to fact check, and he's
Speaker 5: right to fact But the reality is the White House
Speaker 5: and the Harris campaign need somebody front and center the
Speaker 5: way they did or we did during COVID for instance,
Speaker 5: to come out and say we are in a crisis,
Speaker 5: this is what we're doing, this is the information we have.
Speaker 5: There are a lot of great communicators in the White House,
Speaker 5: in the Democratic Party, one person who's been named, you
Speaker 5: guys know, well, Mitch Landrew. Get somebody out who can
Speaker 5: correct this misinformation. And I would just add that I
Speaker 5: spent a lot of yesterday with young people, and I
Speaker 5: could repeat just enormously for a long time, the amount
Speaker 5: of misinformation that they are getting, and they believe a
Speaker 5: lot of what they are hearing. It's got to be
Speaker 5: fact check. But Joe Biden is not the person to
Speaker 5: do it out of the White House, and it's important
Speaker 5: for the campaign and the people in the South who
Speaker 5: are dealing with all of this.
Speaker 2: We saw a post from Anapaulina Luna not to one
Speaker 2: to be working with or complimenting Joe Biden Rick of
Speaker 2: course representing chunk of Florida here, since you just got
Speaker 2: off the phone with Joe Biden, who is personally overseeing
Speaker 2: that FEMA does not create problems with the debris removal
Speaker 2: and supportive of the fifteen billion in FEMA funds only
Speaker 2: for hurricane victims. She ends the post by saying this
Speaker 2: needs to happen. Congress a Special Session Speaker Johnson call
Speaker 2: us back. Is that going to be the next step
Speaker 2: in this reaction from Washington? Rick to lawmakers in fact,
Speaker 2: need to come home despite or back to Washington, despite
Speaker 2: what the speaker is saying.
Speaker 7: Well, I certainly think it's good politics. What else are
Speaker 7: they doing? I mean running for reelection? They got four
Speaker 7: more weeks. You know, the reality is that they actually
Speaker 7: make more friends and find more votes if they gain
Speaker 7: back to Washington and hustled up a supplemental to help
Speaker 7: support victims of these hurricanes. I mean, the reality is
Speaker 7: the entire country, if not large portions of the world,
Speaker 7: have been watching what's been happening here. It's an extraordinary
Speaker 7: set of conditions that have existed, and it would just
Speaker 7: be rational that the Republican leadership should would say, you
Speaker 7: know what, we've got to get our piece of this.
Speaker 7: We're going to come in and we're going to show
Speaker 7: our support for these folks. But I think they've been
Speaker 7: distracted by all this disinformation that's emanating from mar Lago
Speaker 7: and they think somehow that now they can't be part
Speaker 7: of the solution. They have to just point out the problems,
Speaker 7: and that is taking politics in the wrong direction. And frankly,
Speaker 7: I think going to hurt a lot of the momentum
Speaker 7: of these Republican congressional candidates if they sign on to
Speaker 7: this kind of thing.
Speaker 8: Well, it's not just the congressional candidates to consider, but
Speaker 8: Senate ones as well as Senator Rick Scott, the Republican
Speaker 8: incumbent in Florida who is up for reelection this cycle,
Speaker 8: has also called for potentially supplemental funding emergency session. We
Speaker 8: have new polling from The New York Times in Santa
Speaker 8: College that finds while Trump is up thirteen points in
Speaker 8: Florida and the presidential race, Senator Scott is ahead by
Speaker 8: nine points. A separate Merist poll finds him up by
Speaker 8: just two points against his Democratic opponent Rick. When you
Speaker 8: consider the impact of this particular natural disaster, how does
Speaker 8: it affect Senator Scott's rece.
Speaker 7: Well, I think he's going to get graded on how
Speaker 7: they feel the federal responses is occurring, and he can't
Speaker 7: have the luxury of spreading misinformation and thinking that's somehow
Speaker 7: going to help him. He is the primary elected official
Speaker 7: who's connected to the federal response, connected to FEMA, connected
Speaker 7: to the White House, who needs to make sure that
Speaker 7: the people of Florida are taken care of. And so
Speaker 7: I'm not surprised that he's calling for special session. I
Speaker 7: know that it would show that he is doing something
Speaker 7: in this regard. There's little he can do at home
Speaker 7: directly other than be a catalyst for federal action. So
Speaker 7: being a catalyst means getting something done. If he does
Speaker 7: nothing in the next four weeks, it's not going to
Speaker 7: help him get re elected.
Speaker 2: Interesting, Kaylee points to this Siena College New York Times
Speaker 2: poll Genie and it brings troubling news for Democrats in
Speaker 2: these Senate races, not just Florida, but also Montana and Texas,
Speaker 2: and they conclude here that the GOP is on a
Speaker 2: clear path to winning Senate control. Does any element of
Speaker 2: the response to these storms affect that outcome?
Speaker 5: It absolutely does. First of all, you and Kaylee know
Speaker 5: that this was very distressing for me as I have
Speaker 5: a bet with Rick Davis about Texas.
Speaker 1: And to see the thing by.
Speaker 5: It's very distressing. Although I would add if I could,
Speaker 5: that it's still that state is still the one where
Speaker 5: the Democrats have the best shot. So Colin all Red
Speaker 5: has got to come through just for me. Beyond that,
Speaker 5: you know, this is I think where you know, forget
Speaker 5: all the noise, forget the storm. We knew this was
Speaker 5: going to be a really tough year for Democrats. The
Speaker 5: map has totally worked against them, and we're seeing that.
Speaker 5: And of course, you know Montana looks like it is
Speaker 5: lost already. You were just talking about Florida. Sure this
Speaker 5: you know the storm can change that, but you know,
Speaker 5: you still have Scott up, and of course Colin already
Speaker 5: is still down by fourig in Texas. So it is
Speaker 5: looking very much like the Republicans have a very good
Speaker 5: shot of taking the Senate. And you know, one thing
Speaker 5: just to add to the conversation on Florida and Rick
Speaker 5: Scott is the fact that housing and insurance costs are
Speaker 5: just really really hard to get insurances, you know, in Florida,
Speaker 5: and the costs are exorbitant. And that's something Democrats have
Speaker 5: been talking about for the last several years. That may
Speaker 5: help turn the state, but I don't think it's going
Speaker 5: to happen this year.
Speaker 8: All right. So that's a look down the ballot, if
Speaker 8: we could zoom back up and look at the presidential race.
Speaker 8: We've course learned yesterday that there will be no rematch
Speaker 8: in terms of a debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris,
Speaker 8: at least according to Trump. Harris of course had agreed
Speaker 8: she went October twenty third debate on CNN. Now CNN
Speaker 8: Today has proposed two separate town halls with the candidates
Speaker 8: on the network on that date. We're getting reporting that
Speaker 8: Harris has agreed to participate. Not sure yet on Donald Trump, Genie,
Speaker 8: if he decides not to participate or to counter programming
Speaker 8: in some way, net who benefits from that?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 5: I think she it's important for her to go out
Speaker 5: and to keep talking to voters. I say the same
Speaker 5: thing about him. But if he's going to counter program,
Speaker 5: I don't think his absence from CNN is going to
Speaker 5: hurt him all that much. You know. The reality is
Speaker 5: is that Donald Trump has been out there trying to
Speaker 5: speak to the people in his base, and he has
Speaker 5: been doing so successfully. CNN is not that audience, So
Speaker 5: I don't think it hurts him that much if he
Speaker 5: stays away from it. Maybe another story if he gets
Speaker 5: invite from Fox and declines that.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, great conversation as always, Genie Shanzano and
Speaker 2: Rick Davis. A rare appearance by Kaylee Lyons here at
Speaker 2: the noontime Eastern hour. Great to see both of you.
Speaker 2: Partner at Stone Court Capital, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano,
Speaker 2: political science professor at Ionia University. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get
Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday
Speaker 2: from Washington, DC, at noontime Eastern at bloomberg dot com.