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Speaker 1: always sharps versus squares. I am, of course the square.
Speaker 1: Chad Milner of the Action Network will stop by in
Speaker 1: ten minutes. Some thoughts watching the Packers, Well, you know,
Speaker 1: if you're a Packer fan and you're rooting for Jordan Love,
Speaker 1: your takeaway could be Hey, last couple of weeks, he's
Speaker 1: been very solid in the second half. He's been a gamer,
Speaker 1: playing from behind. I like his fight. He doesn't quit.
Speaker 1: He's got good mobility. He got in the end zone
Speaker 1: and threw a left handed pass out of the end zone.
Speaker 1: If you're not a Packer fan and you have questions
Speaker 1: about him. You could say last two weeks he has
Speaker 1: buried himself in the franchise, getting into a big hole,
Speaker 1: huge deficit, playing from behind when opposing defenses. Let's be honest.
Speaker 1: You know Derek Carr got hurt. Lion's going to a
Speaker 1: more conservative mode, time clock eating offense, maybe play a
Speaker 1: little less aggressive prevent defense. It depends on your perspective.
Speaker 1: As I've said before, I'm going to give him two
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving and then I'll have a definitive opinion on Jordan Love.
Speaker 1: My takeaway now is he's up and down. I don't
Speaker 1: see a ton of special although I think he moves
Speaker 1: really well. He's not overwhelmed. He gets out of trouble,
Speaker 1: he escapes, he doesn't panic. He's more than competent again
Speaker 1: in this day and age. He moves well, good size,
Speaker 1: nice arm. All the elements are there tonight. The Detroit
Speaker 1: Lions are a better football team. Jared Goff's a better quarterback.
Speaker 1: He was drafted number one. He was a better high school,
Speaker 1: college and so far pro quarterback than Jordan Love. They
Speaker 1: controlled the game. They have a better offensive line. I
Speaker 1: don't want to hear Packers were injured. You get to
Speaker 1: week four, five six in the NFL, everybody's hurt. You know,
Speaker 1: everybody's banged up. Detroit's a better football team. This has
Speaker 1: been a laughing stock of the franchise for years. And
Speaker 1: it's very possible of golf stays in Detroit, or they
Speaker 1: draft another quarterback and get it right, they're going to
Speaker 1: be a very good team for several years. They have
Speaker 1: drafted well. They have very good players. They're not having
Speaker 1: to pay yet. Linebackers, tight end, edge rushers, tackles. They've
Speaker 1: got some dudes. And you know, for years and years,
Speaker 1: you know, you never really trusted the ownership in the
Speaker 1: front office. I really like the executive suite for the Lions.
Speaker 1: I like their drafts. They've taken some swings players that
Speaker 1: I watched a lot of in college. Amor On Saint
Speaker 1: Brown is a much better pro than I thought he
Speaker 1: would be. I watched every USC game of note that
Speaker 1: he played in. He's a better pro than I thought
Speaker 1: he would be. So I think Detroit's just a better team.
Speaker 1: I think they exhibited it again tonight. I think you know,
Speaker 1: they lost in over a time to Seattle, but they
Speaker 1: beat Kansas City a narrowhead. They dominate the Packers at Lambeau.
Speaker 1: It's a good football team and they got we're the
Speaker 1: good players. So you know, they played hard under Dan
Speaker 1: Campbell last year, but they were just missing a couple elements.
Speaker 1: They've shored up to defense. They're not a great defense,
Speaker 1: but they're a better defense. And I like what I see.
Speaker 1: You know, I think Jordan loves fine to this point.
Speaker 1: Nothing you see. He doesn't feel overwhelmed like Zach Wilson.
Speaker 1: He's not regularly inaccurate like justin fields. There's nothing here
Speaker 1: that would mortify me.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: Some of this is just he needs snaps. He needs games.
Speaker 1: He needs snaps. He's been uneven good half bad half
Speaker 1: good half bad half. That's the sign of a young quarterback.
Speaker 1: So you can sit on the bench for as long
Speaker 1: as you want. Aaron Rodgers first year, he was six
Speaker 1: and ten and then things even out. It's very rare
Speaker 1: when a young quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a great talent.
Speaker 1: He has bad halfs, bad quarters, bad games. So I
Speaker 1: think if you're a Packer optimist, you have to like
Speaker 1: what you see with Jordan. You look at the first half,
Speaker 1: the last two weeks is better teams. Saints are a
Speaker 1: better team. They have a better defense than Green Bay.
Speaker 1: I think the Lions have a better roster, all right,
Speaker 1: But I nothing I see with Jordan Love would would
Speaker 1: deeply concern me. I'm looking for some it's some special
Speaker 1: maybe that develops through confidence and wins. But I think
Speaker 1: in house. I talked to Tyler Dunn, somebody who's covered
Speaker 1: the Packers now on his own platform, used to work
Speaker 1: for the Milwaukee Journal, and he said, in house, there's
Speaker 1: a feeling that they're a little ahead of schedule. They
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. Lions ran the ball well
Speaker 1: better than the Packers did, more yards, more rushing yards.
Speaker 1: That helped a lot. Again, Packers are a little beat up,
Speaker 1: but you know it's it's I'm on a little bit
Speaker 1: of a lucky streak here. So far in the NFC,
Speaker 1: the teams I had making the playoffs Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, Saints.
Speaker 1: Only the Lions in the NFC North in Seattle and
Speaker 1: San Francisco right now would make the playoffs. Seven for
Speaker 1: seven AFC. I'm waiting on Joe Burrow's calf to heal,
Speaker 1: and I don't know what's going on with the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: I had them as a possible number one seed. They're
Speaker 1: a mess. I do think they'll get healthy against Atlanta
Speaker 1: this weekend overseas, but all in all, better team one.
Speaker 1: It's nice to see the Lions win, you know. I mean,
Speaker 1: like last year they were close, but you felt like,
Speaker 1: you know what, they have to win one way, they
Speaker 1: have to outscore people. Tonight they scored, but didn't necessarily
Speaker 1: have to outscore people. I thought they had a couple
Speaker 1: of calls go against them in the game. Then the
Speaker 1: Packers had that weird call and special teams on the
Speaker 1: field goal go against them. All evens out. But you know,
Speaker 1: you go to bed tonight, you wake up tomorrow and
Speaker 1: you think about Jordan Love, all right, we got something here,
Speaker 1: We're okay, We're fine. Doesn't mean you don't draft a
Speaker 1: quarterback in this draft. I wouldn't draft them in the
Speaker 1: first round. The Packers don't have huge needs. I really
Speaker 1: do like their tight ends and the receivers. I really
Speaker 1: think Green Bay is well positioned. But this is the
Speaker 1: youngest team in the NFL, so I think you have
Speaker 1: to come in with you know, Jordan Loves, inexperienced, incredibly
Speaker 1: young roster. You gotta temper your expectations this year. Right now,
Speaker 1: Detroit's on like the second third year of this group.
Speaker 1: I think they're ahead of Green Bay. I think this
Speaker 1: team needs the age, and I think they'll age pretty well.
Speaker 1: So I like the journey. I like watching Jordan Love.
Speaker 1: It's fun. There's no indignity losing to a really good,
Speaker 1: underrated quarterback in Jared Goff. I don't get it. You
Speaker 1: can't tell me there's twelve guys in the NFL better
Speaker 1: than Jared Goff. I don't believe it. I think he
Speaker 1: throws one of the best balls in the league. They
Speaker 1: have a great online Jared Goff's history is when he
Speaker 1: has time to throw, he's good. He made some really,
Speaker 1: really slick throws tonight. I like him, you know that
Speaker 1: I always have. All Right, everybody, it's time for Sharper Square.
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, the CEO of Action Network. All odds provided
Speaker 1: by DraftKings. I went three one one on my blazing
Speaker 1: five picks. Rams was a push, even though I thought
Speaker 1: they outplayed the Bengals for the first two quarters maybe
Speaker 1: two and a half. But that's the way gambling works.
Speaker 1: All right. Let's start with some favorites. As you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of favorites. I usually take
Speaker 1: three to four underdogs. But I think it's interesting Miami
Speaker 1: goes on the road again. They have struggled to stop
Speaker 1: Josh Allen again and again. And here's what concerns me
Speaker 1: is that Buffalo can create pressure bringing just four. That's
Speaker 1: the way to slow down Miami New England. You don't
Speaker 1: need sacks. You need to create a little chaos and pressure.
Speaker 1: So I think Buffalo minus two and a half. It
Speaker 1: is one of my favorite bets of the week. At
Speaker 1: minus three, I still lean Buffalo. But teams that score seventy,
Speaker 1: they feel themselves a little pull back, a little another
Speaker 1: flight to the northeast. What say you, Sharper Squareshed.
Speaker 2: Dude, it's like you are reading from the sharp script,
Speaker 2: no joke. Everything you just said is why the wise
Speaker 2: guys are on Buffalo at minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: So a they tend to like a divisional game if
Speaker 2: they can get the favorite under a field goal. So
Speaker 2: there is a slight lean there. B What you said
Speaker 2: about the pressure is key. Sean McDermott has had to
Speaker 2: his number right. Tua has been incredibly good against every
Speaker 2: other team, and he's been much less good against Sean McDermott.
Speaker 2: And now Sean McDermott has what you just said, he
Speaker 2: has film of what the Patriots did, and the Patriots
Speaker 2: did a really good job against Tua. Now, look, they
Speaker 2: have Christian Gonzalez who is turning into an A plus
Speaker 2: draft pick and a dominant cover corner. But what they
Speaker 2: basically did with that umbrella coverage was they did not
Speaker 2: blitz very much. And if you talk about Buffalo, which
Speaker 2: you just said as well, Buffalo has twelve sacks leading
Speaker 2: the NFL, right, but they are the third lowest in
Speaker 2: pressure from blitzing. So they are not doing it because
Speaker 2: they are sending a lot of players. They are doing
Speaker 2: it because their front four is getting to the quarterback.
Speaker 2: And then look those are all the on the field stats.
Speaker 2: Let's look at it from a betting point of view.
Speaker 2: You want to fade the team that just scores seventy points.
Speaker 2: There's not a lot of data about how teams that
Speaker 2: score seventy points do against the spread the following week.
Speaker 2: But I can tell you when a team scores seventy
Speaker 2: generally you want to go against that team. There is
Speaker 2: so much public sentiment for this team. And look, this
Speaker 2: is a game that is kind of vexing the wise
Speaker 2: guys a little bit. If you look at the data,
Speaker 2: seventy percent of the money is on Buffalo. So when
Speaker 2: you get money on one side, that generally means professional
Speaker 2: betters like it. But the tickets are kind of split
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. And what's that saying is that people
Speaker 2: aren't like the wise guys who might like Miami aren't
Speaker 2: rushing in because they really don't know what to do
Speaker 2: with this game. They don't know what to do with
Speaker 2: his team Miami. One wise guy described them to me
Speaker 2: as a little bit like the matrix full of cheat codes,
Speaker 2: and so they're either betting Buffalo or they're passing.
Speaker 1: My favorite bet of the week is Minnesota minus four
Speaker 1: against Carolina at Carolina. Here's why Carolina has a problem.
Speaker 1: There is nobody to throw to. Mingo may not be
Speaker 1: a bust. He doesn't separate. He's a more talented Nikhil Harry.
Speaker 1: He doesn't separate. Young quarterbacks need people who separate. That's
Speaker 1: why actually CJ. Stroud's having a little success his low round,
Speaker 1: mid round draft picks. They got some guys that can
Speaker 1: play so Minnesota. Wouldn't you think of them differently if
Speaker 1: that last pass was a touchdown and not tipped for
Speaker 1: a pick. So they're a little undervalued fos the middle
Speaker 1: of nowhere. Minnesota could have easily won that game, probably
Speaker 1: should have. And Minnesota's got a veteran quarterback and elite weapon.
Speaker 1: They're not running the football well, but they matched up
Speaker 1: pretty well. I think against the Chargers a fairly stacked roster.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the four. I'm good with it. I
Speaker 1: really like the Vikings minus four.
Speaker 2: Sharper square kind of a eh like. There's no real
Speaker 2: consensus on this game. It's not a game that folks
Speaker 2: are pining to bet. You're not finding an advantage. It's,
Speaker 2: as we like to say, as you and I like
Speaker 2: to say, it's a corner TV game, right, someone's gonna
Speaker 2: bet it so it'll be on in the sports book.
Speaker 2: But the truth is there's no numbers edge, right and
Speaker 2: the wise guys don't love Minnesota. They don't love the coaching,
Speaker 2: they don't love the way they've been playing, they don't
Speaker 2: love that defense at all. They don't like Carolina, they
Speaker 2: don't like Bryce Young, they don't want to bet on
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton. They agree with you about the weapons on
Speaker 2: the edge. This game opened at three and a half.
Speaker 2: It's been bet up to four. I would have felt
Speaker 2: like if there was some kind of consensus, it would
Speaker 2: have been on a home underdog and that Colin. That's
Speaker 2: sort of the indicator, right, If you're ever looking for
Speaker 2: signals about who you want to bet on or what
Speaker 2: wise guys might like, if you see a home dog
Speaker 2: and the number moves in the direction of the favorite,
Speaker 2: then you know the wise guys are staying away from
Speaker 2: it because wise guys tend to jump on home underdogs.
Speaker 1: All right, you know I like underdogs. Let me give
Speaker 1: you three that are tasty. Listen. Sam Hell was overwhelmed,
Speaker 1: completely overwhelmed. Philadelphia is struggling offensively. It may just be
Speaker 1: a Shane Stiken issue. They're not the same offense. They'll win.
Speaker 1: The interior line play here, but the Washington d line
Speaker 1: can play. When you get humiliated, I'll take the eight.
Speaker 1: It's a division rival again. Young quarterbacks are hot and cold,
Speaker 1: and I don't care if it's c J. Stroud Bryce Young.
Speaker 1: Sam Hell was awful the week before. He is pretty interesting.
Speaker 1: I think Sam Hell little course correct I'll take the
Speaker 1: eight division rival short week for Philadelphia Sharper Square.
Speaker 2: Totally sharp. The Wise guys actually are buyers on Sam Howe.
Speaker 2: They were they were buyers last week on Sam Howell
Speaker 2: when he went up against Buffalo. They've been really encouraged
Speaker 2: by what they've seen and the way he's been able
Speaker 2: to handle himself in the pocket. There were some throws
Speaker 2: he had against the Broncos two weeks ago that made
Speaker 2: them sort of stand up and take notice.
Speaker 1: And Jos.
Speaker 2: Great and he had a play where he stepped up
Speaker 2: in the pocket hit Terry McLaurin deep when he was
Speaker 2: double covered, and he put the ball in play and
Speaker 2: gave him a chance to catch it. So the wise
Speaker 2: guys have looked at Sam Howell and said, Okay, we
Speaker 2: think he's better than maybe we were judging. And look
Speaker 2: the Eagles. I bet I bet the Commanders at plus
Speaker 2: eight and a half. The number actually moved down to eight,
Speaker 2: it went back up to eight and a half. There
Speaker 2: are some places where you can get it at better
Speaker 2: than eight and a half right now. So I'm with
Speaker 2: you on this game, and the wise guys are with
Speaker 2: you on this game. I think there's one thing, uh,
Speaker 2: It's why betters might want to wait and see where
Speaker 2: they can get the best of the number. I think
Speaker 2: the public is going to love Philadelphia. I think when
Speaker 2: a team wins in a primetime game and they looked good,
Speaker 2: and Eagles did look good in the second half, especially
Speaker 2: like Jalen Hurts has started to figure it out with
Speaker 2: his new offensive coordinator. There's gonna be a huge public
Speaker 2: backing of the Eagles in this game. But I don't
Speaker 2: like that in huge favorites in a divisional game. So
Speaker 2: I'm with you on the Commanders, and so are thewise guys.
Speaker 1: So all the odds are provided by draft kings. I
Speaker 1: swear I saw the Patriots getting seven. Maybe I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: It's now six and a half. I still like it.
Speaker 1: This feels ugly and low scoring. The best corner in
Speaker 1: this game three weeks ago was Trayvon Diggs. Now it's
Speaker 1: Christian Gonzalez. The best pass rusher is still Micah, but
Speaker 1: Judon's having another great year. The best coach, Let's not
Speaker 1: get into it. It's an obvious slam dunk coaching edge,
Speaker 1: and I really I believe this. I think New England's
Speaker 1: actually a pretty good team. I don't think they're explosive.
Speaker 1: I think they missed what we all see a number
Speaker 1: one receiver. But Jude ju Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker running
Speaker 1: game with great coaching. I'm taking the six and a half.
Speaker 1: This feels like twenty seventeen, twenty three, twenty That's what
Speaker 1: it feels like to me. Sharper Square.
Speaker 2: Look, the wise guys have bet the Patriots. That's why
Speaker 2: it moved from seven down to six and a half.
Speaker 2: I think at six and a half you're kind of
Speaker 2: playing with fire right because this is a game where
Speaker 2: it could easily end up as a touchdown, and at
Speaker 2: least at seven it's a key number. You're getting a push.
Speaker 2: The debate that's going on about this Patriots team is fascinating,
Speaker 2: and you know, you're always trying to drive a wedge
Speaker 2: between me and my bff and co host Simon Hunter
Speaker 2: on the favorites. But this has been a game that
Speaker 2: we had a fierce debate about today. I actually think
Speaker 2: this is a huge get right spot for the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: Their red zone against Arizona was terrible. This is an
Speaker 2: opportunity for them to come back and fix it. Dak
Speaker 2: in these spots as a favorite at home as a
Speaker 2: bigger favorite has performed well. The problem is everything you
Speaker 2: said about the Patriots is true, and it's why the way
Speaker 2: guys have bet the Patriots down to six and a half.
Speaker 2: Mac Jones might be terrible, and we can say all
Speaker 2: we want about he played in a monsoon, or he's
Speaker 2: played really good defenses. He has had plenty of opportunities
Speaker 2: to put the Patriots in good positions with one key
Speaker 2: throw that were available, and you didn't do it. So
Speaker 2: it's a very good chance that he's just not very good.
Speaker 2: And you're betting on a guy who's not very good
Speaker 2: on the road against a team that could have a
Speaker 2: really dynamic offense. So not my favorite that I'm gonna
Speaker 2: say that, right.
Speaker 1: I have kind of a belief now that once the
Speaker 1: once the schedule was extended to seventeen games, people were
Speaker 1: playing starters in the preseason even less, and so Week
Speaker 1: one is absurdly unpredictable. The Bills were bad, the Jets
Speaker 1: look good. That's not truth. Take out Week one for Seattle,
Speaker 1: where they had no idea what McVeigh was doing with
Speaker 1: a new offense. They go to Detroit and beat the Lions,
Speaker 1: the Hammer Carolina and now they get points at New York,
Speaker 1: and New York's kind of beat up. I think they're
Speaker 1: the better team. I think the Rams nobody had a
Speaker 1: clue what offense they were gonna run. Element of surprise
Speaker 1: what they dominated that game. Since then, Seattle's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Seattle's a good football team that I picked against the
Speaker 1: playoffs that made the playoffs last year. Their young players
Speaker 1: are better. I'm gonna take the points with Seattle.
Speaker 2: Sharper square an interesting choice. It's a sharp play, but
Speaker 2: not like, oh my god, I'm seeing so much value.
Speaker 2: It's a sharp play because it's a short number. Is
Speaker 2: what you just said about the Giants, like they're kind
Speaker 2: of beat up. There could be regression there. Seattle, actually,
Speaker 2: like you just said, has played better in the following weeks,
Speaker 2: and I think for some reason, there's sort of a
Speaker 2: hangover with Gino. When he doesn't play well, people tend
Speaker 2: to think, oh, Gino's terrible, Whereas if he bounces back,
Speaker 2: he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way
Speaker 2: other quarterbacks would. Right right now, Trevor Lawrence has looked terrible.
Speaker 2: If Trevor Lawrence plays great this weekend in London, everyone's
Speaker 2: gonna be like, oh he's back. No one's going to think, oh,
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence is still bad. He just had one good game.
Speaker 2: But everyone thinks that about Geno until he has six
Speaker 2: straight games that are really good. So I can't disagree
Speaker 2: with you on this, but definitely not one of my favorites.
Speaker 1: Okay, so then we play the game. Oh I have
Speaker 1: one more before we play the game. Let's hear it.
Speaker 1: So Cleveland minus two and a half at home against Baltimore.
Speaker 1: I think Cleveland has the best defense in the league.
Speaker 1: Baltimore's left tackle may play not one hundred percent, same
Speaker 1: with their center. This is Baltimore. They're beat up in
Speaker 1: division game. I usually take points. I don't think we
Speaker 1: like Cleveland because of their quarterback and their history. This
Speaker 1: defense is Niners, it's Steelers, It's insane. Baltimore remains some
Speaker 1: new perimeter weapons, new coordinators, still figuring themselves out, still
Speaker 1: players coming back on one hundred percent. I'd swallow the
Speaker 1: two and a half. I'll take Cleveland minus two and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Sharper square totally sharp, but it has to be two
Speaker 2: and a half. At three, nobody's buying, But at two
Speaker 2: and a half, everyone's buying from a professional perspective, what
Speaker 2: you're saying, like, this defense is just it's sick, like
Speaker 2: all the film breakdown you can do. You've probably had
Speaker 2: Cosela on to talk about this, like Miles Garrett is
Speaker 2: playing at a defensive Player of the Year level. From
Speaker 2: the front four to the back line, they are just
Speaker 2: stacked and playing incredibly well. Look, I think they've had
Speaker 2: there have been thirty something possessions against the Browns. There's
Speaker 2: been one trip to the red zone against them, Like
Speaker 2: the Steelers, they didn't get into the red zone. It
Speaker 2: was all defensive touchdowns. Like, this defense is insane. And
Speaker 2: Jim Schwartz might have who has had had great careers,
Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator might have the best level of talent
Speaker 2: that matches his philosophy that he's ever had. I agree
Speaker 2: with everything you said about Baltimore. What's tricky about Baltimore
Speaker 2: And this is one of those things again. Are you
Speaker 2: betting what you're seeing on the field? Are you betting
Speaker 2: what history has told you. Lamar Jackson is a favorite, terrible.
Speaker 2: We saw it against the Colts last weekend. Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: as an underdog, almost unbeatable. John Harbaugh as an underdog,
Speaker 2: one of the best coaches in the past twenty years,
Speaker 2: A road division underdog at three, you kind of got
Speaker 2: a pass, or take the dog at two and a half.
Speaker 2: You're going to take the favorite.
Speaker 1: All right, Now, we play the game. I give you
Speaker 1: a game that I want to be talked into, and
Speaker 1: then a game that I totally missed Los Angeles Rams,
Speaker 1: element of surprise game that look great. Since then the
Speaker 1: offense is okay. Another road game. Indianapolis gets Anthony Richardson back,
Speaker 1: Shane Steikin's excellent. Their D and O line combos actually
Speaker 1: pretty good. I think Indy is going to be a
Speaker 1: roller coaster team. But Anthony Richardson actually is a young quarterback,
Speaker 1: takes some time off, watches the game, extra time to
Speaker 1: prep with a great OC. I think I would take
Speaker 1: Indianapolis minus one and a half the Rams. Another road trip,
Speaker 1: short week, go home, come back. Think I would take
Speaker 1: Indy here Sharper square.
Speaker 2: I think you want to rethink that you're gonna want
Speaker 2: to take the Rams. That's the sharp side. It's actually
Speaker 2: a big, big favorite of the wise guys this week.
Speaker 2: They're all buyers on Matthew Stafford. He's actually having a
Speaker 2: really good year. And if you look at that game
Speaker 2: against the Bengals, there's a couple of plays that stand
Speaker 2: out that win against them. You know, we've talked about
Speaker 2: this on the show. We do this thing at Action
Speaker 2: Network called the Luck Rankings, which basically takes all of
Speaker 2: the unpredictable plays and puts them in a formula with
Speaker 2: the predictable plays and tells you, if everything was even,
Speaker 2: what should the score of that game been and the
Speaker 2: Rams would have won that game. And the biggest differential
Speaker 2: between teams that have gotten lucky this far in the
Speaker 2: season and the teams that have gotten unlucky this far
Speaker 2: in the season is between the Rams and the Colts
Speaker 2: in this game. So to me, if I just see that,
Speaker 2: I'm automatically going to play the Rams. But the numbers
Speaker 2: also stack up to Stafford is a better quarterback. This
Speaker 2: Rams defense is playing better than people expect. Anthony Richardson
Speaker 2: huge fan like it's Bijon, it's Anthony Richardson, and IT'SHJ.
Speaker 2: Shroud if you're talking about offensive rookie of the Year.
Speaker 2: But again, it'll be his first game back after a concussion.
Speaker 2: It's not like he's whipping the ball downfield. It's sixty
Speaker 2: yards per attempt, right, so he's not blowing it up.
Speaker 2: I think he's a really good player. But I think
Speaker 2: the Rams as short dogs is the play here.
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I call the game to talk me
Speaker 1: into all right, what did I miss? What's a sometimes
Speaker 1: an ugly one? I did think about Jacksonville. My guess
Speaker 1: I thought Jacksonville's the side against that lamb. That's what
Speaker 1: it felt. That's one of the ones I didn't put in,
Speaker 1: but I thought that's an ugly one. My guess is
Speaker 1: Jacksonville overseas, there's a little pressure on them and they're
Speaker 1: not really up for it. I almost love them playing
Speaker 1: overseas and like, you know what, we're going to get
Speaker 1: out of this country, go do what we do, and
Speaker 1: we got really good players. Am I right? Am I
Speaker 1: guessing right here?
Speaker 2: No? No, you're totally right. Like Jacksonville is the side.
Speaker 2: It's the side the wise guys, like it's sitting there
Speaker 2: at minus three. But yeah, you know, there's a lot
Speaker 2: of history to tell you that in these London games
Speaker 2: you want to take the favorites. There's a lot in
Speaker 2: the field to tell you that you want to take
Speaker 2: the jags here Look, I think in the first two games,
Speaker 2: Atlanta surprised a lot of people and made people think
Speaker 2: twice because they were able to come back, they were
Speaker 2: able to maintain. And then what you saw last week
Speaker 2: against Detroit, where a lot of wise guys were on
Speaker 2: the Falcons, Desmond Ritter just was terrible. And so without
Speaker 2: a quarterback, this is a gain right spot for Trevor
Speaker 2: Lawrence and the Jags. So the wise guys are going
Speaker 2: to be playing Jacksonville. But I will give you a
Speaker 2: game that we didn't discuss. Okay, I'm a little surprised
Speaker 2: you didn't bring it up, because this is a perfect
Speaker 2: spot for you. The Cincinnati Bengals on the road at
Speaker 2: the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee Titans opened at plus two and
Speaker 2: a half. It's gone back and forth. It went down
Speaker 2: to two because the wise guys like the Titans. Then
Speaker 2: the public is coming in on the Bengals because they
Speaker 2: just won in prime time. Look, you've got a team
Speaker 2: whose value is deflated because they just got demolished by
Speaker 2: potentially in historically great defense in the Browns. Right, So
Speaker 2: that's the Titans, and then a team in the Bengals
Speaker 2: that beat the Rams. The number on that game had
Speaker 2: swung wildly. The Rams opened to six and a half
Speaker 2: point Dogs, got that down all the way to two
Speaker 2: and a half point Dogs because of the Borough news
Speaker 2: Borough plays. He doesn't look great, but he wins. Jamar
Speaker 2: Chase has a breakout game. It's a prime time game.
Speaker 2: You're automatically going to have the public come in on
Speaker 2: that team. Yeah, right, And so all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: you've got a team that the public loves on the
Speaker 2: road against a Tennessee team that is one of the
Speaker 2: best coach teams in the NFL. They've got a really
Speaker 2: good defensive line, they've got a really smart quarterback. As
Speaker 2: much as people don't want to say they like Ryan Tannehill,
Speaker 2: he plays well when he's put in a position to succeed.
Speaker 2: He doesn't make the mistakes. And Mike Frabel is a
Speaker 2: super star as an underdog. Colin, there is one coach
Speaker 2: the past twenty years who is over five hundred straight
Speaker 2: up as an underdog, not covering the spread. I mean
Speaker 2: straight up he wins as an underdog. It's Mike Rabel.
Speaker 2: He's the most profitable coach against the spread as an
Speaker 2: underdog the past twenty years.
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't pick that game because for the
Speaker 1: first time this year, Burrow is playing without a calf restraint,
Speaker 1: like he's now playing, he's practicing, he's back, and I
Speaker 1: don't I don't like betting against Joe when he's back
Speaker 1: and they have to win this game. That was That
Speaker 1: was That was a game that Jay Mac and I
Speaker 1: had discussed off air this week, and I'm like, I now,
Speaker 1: Burrow's not wearing any calf restraints. He's one hundred percent healthy.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I thought he played better in
Speaker 1: the second half against the Rams, calf loosened up a
Speaker 1: little bit. I'm like, end of that game, it was like,
Speaker 1: is pretty interesting. All right, that's an interesting one. So
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I betting means doing bad things, Colin, Sometimes you got
Speaker 2: to do things.
Speaker 1: That's listen. I like Minnesota minus four a lot. You
Speaker 1: think it's a nothing burger. I like it a lot.
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota had that tip pass on in their favor.
Speaker 1: We would think of them differently. It's a play. It's
Speaker 1: one play and beat up. What do they have?
Speaker 2: They have the h one of the leading passers in
Speaker 2: the NFL, one of the leading receivers in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And yet they could very much go down as one
Speaker 2: of those teams like the Jeff George lad Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 2: with Andre Risen right where they run up these huge,
Speaker 2: huge numbers. They never scare anybody. Nobody cares about them
Speaker 2: because it's just it's a sugar rush. It's empty calories.
Speaker 2: You want to do something scary, Colin, You want to
Speaker 2: know the number that was just moving today. It's been
Speaker 2: sitting for say five days since Sunday, and today the
Speaker 2: wise guy started pounding it. Are you ready? Are you ready?
Speaker 2: I am New York Jets home underdogs against the Kansas
Speaker 2: City Chiefs. Tell you right now, I'll tell you right now.
Speaker 2: I bet this at the Jets plus ten. It had
Speaker 2: been in nine and a half for most of the week.
Speaker 2: It bumped up to ten. Yesterday I grabbed it went
Speaker 2: back down to nine and a half. I'm not saying
Speaker 2: I moved the number back. I'm just saying after I
Speaker 2: grabbed the ten, it went down to nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Uh And today it's been been steaming in the Jets
Speaker 2: direction below nine. So you want to talk about a
Speaker 2: game the wise guys are on. It's the New York
Speaker 2: Jets can't do it.
Speaker 1: I can not do it. Well did Pruden?
Speaker 2: Not gonna do it?
Speaker 1: Not gonna do it. Chad Milman, CEO Action Net. We're good.
Speaker 1: See anybody, all right, brother, good luck this week three
Speaker 1: one and one. I feel good, dude.
Speaker 2: I was so excited three one in one. You texted
Speaker 2: me about the Patriots. I'm like, you gotta do the Patriots.
Speaker 2: I was so glad for you. I knew you could
Speaker 2: come back. I knew you.
Speaker 1: Could do it. Maybe maybe temporary when I came back,
Speaker 1: doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: See you later.
Speaker 1: The volume