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Speaker 1: game time all right, everybody welcome in Friday mornings. Are

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Speaker 1: always sharps versus squares. I am, of course the square.

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Speaker 1: Chad Milner of the Action Network will stop by in

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Speaker 1: ten minutes. Some thoughts watching the Packers, Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're a Packer fan and you're rooting for Jordan Love,

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Speaker 1: your takeaway could be Hey, last couple of weeks, he's

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Speaker 1: been very solid in the second half. He's been a gamer,

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Speaker 1: playing from behind. I like his fight. He doesn't quit.

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Speaker 1: He's got good mobility. He got in the end zone

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Speaker 1: and threw a left handed pass out of the end zone.

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Speaker 1: If you're not a Packer fan and you have questions

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Speaker 1: about him. You could say last two weeks he has

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Speaker 1: buried himself in the franchise, getting into a big hole,

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Speaker 1: huge deficit, playing from behind when opposing defenses. Let's be honest.

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Speaker 1: You know Derek Carr got hurt. Lion's going to a

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Speaker 1: more conservative mode, time clock eating offense, maybe play a

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Speaker 1: little less aggressive prevent defense. It depends on your perspective.

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Speaker 1: As I've said before, I'm going to give him two

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving and then I'll have a definitive opinion on Jordan Love.

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Speaker 1: My takeaway now is he's up and down. I don't

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Speaker 1: see a ton of special although I think he moves

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Speaker 1: really well. He's not overwhelmed. He gets out of trouble,

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Speaker 1: he escapes, he doesn't panic. He's more than competent again

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Speaker 1: in this day and age. He moves well, good size,

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Speaker 1: nice arm. All the elements are there tonight. The Detroit

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Speaker 1: Lions are a better football team. Jared Goff's a better quarterback.

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Speaker 1: He was drafted number one. He was a better high school,

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Speaker 1: college and so far pro quarterback than Jordan Love. They

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Speaker 1: controlled the game. They have a better offensive line. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to hear Packers were injured. You get to

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Speaker 1: week four, five six in the NFL, everybody's hurt. You know,

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Speaker 1: everybody's banged up. Detroit's a better football team. This has

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Speaker 1: been a laughing stock of the franchise for years. And

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Speaker 1: it's very possible of golf stays in Detroit, or they

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Speaker 1: draft another quarterback and get it right, they're going to

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Speaker 1: be a very good team for several years. They have

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Speaker 1: drafted well. They have very good players. They're not having

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Speaker 1: to pay yet. Linebackers, tight end, edge rushers, tackles. They've

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Speaker 1: got some dudes. And you know, for years and years,

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Speaker 1: you know, you never really trusted the ownership in the

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Speaker 1: front office. I really like the executive suite for the Lions.

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Speaker 1: I like their drafts. They've taken some swings players that

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Speaker 1: I watched a lot of in college. Amor On Saint

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Speaker 1: Brown is a much better pro than I thought he

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Speaker 1: would be. I watched every USC game of note that

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Speaker 1: he played in. He's a better pro than I thought

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Speaker 1: he would be. So I think Detroit's just a better team.

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Speaker 1: I think they exhibited it again tonight. I think you know,

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Speaker 1: they lost in over a time to Seattle, but they

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Speaker 1: beat Kansas City a narrowhead. They dominate the Packers at Lambeau.

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Speaker 1: It's a good football team and they got we're the

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Speaker 1: good players. So you know, they played hard under Dan

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Speaker 1: Campbell last year, but they were just missing a couple elements.

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Speaker 1: They've shored up to defense. They're not a great defense,

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Speaker 1: but they're a better defense. And I like what I see.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think Jordan loves fine to this point.

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Speaker 1: Nothing you see. He doesn't feel overwhelmed like Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 1: He's not regularly inaccurate like justin fields. There's nothing here

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Speaker 1: that would mortify me.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: Some of this is just he needs snaps. He needs games.

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Speaker 1: He needs snaps. He's been uneven good half bad half

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Speaker 1: good half bad half. That's the sign of a young quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So you can sit on the bench for as long

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Speaker 1: as you want. Aaron Rodgers first year, he was six

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Speaker 1: and ten and then things even out. It's very rare

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Speaker 1: when a young quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a great talent.

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Speaker 1: He has bad halfs, bad quarters, bad games. So I

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Speaker 1: think if you're a Packer optimist, you have to like

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Speaker 1: what you see with Jordan. You look at the first half,

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Speaker 1: the last two weeks is better teams. Saints are a

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Speaker 1: better team. They have a better defense than Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: I think the Lions have a better roster, all right,

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Speaker 1: But I nothing I see with Jordan Love would would

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Speaker 1: deeply concern me. I'm looking for some it's some special

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Speaker 1: maybe that develops through confidence and wins. But I think

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Speaker 1: in house. I talked to Tyler Dunn, somebody who's covered

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Speaker 1: the Packers now on his own platform, used to work

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Speaker 1: for the Milwaukee Journal, and he said, in house, there's

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Speaker 1: a feeling that they're a little ahead of schedule. They

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Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. Lions ran the ball well

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Speaker 1: better than the Packers did, more yards, more rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: That helped a lot. Again, Packers are a little beat up,

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Speaker 1: but you know it's it's I'm on a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a lucky streak here. So far in the NFC,

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Speaker 1: the teams I had making the playoffs Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, Saints.

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Speaker 1: Only the Lions in the NFC North in Seattle and

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Speaker 1: San Francisco right now would make the playoffs. Seven for

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Speaker 1: seven AFC. I'm waiting on Joe Burrow's calf to heal,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know what's going on with the Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: I had them as a possible number one seed. They're

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Speaker 1: a mess. I do think they'll get healthy against Atlanta

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Speaker 1: this weekend overseas, but all in all, better team one.

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Speaker 1: It's nice to see the Lions win, you know. I mean,

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Speaker 1: like last year they were close, but you felt like,

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Speaker 1: you know what, they have to win one way, they

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Speaker 1: have to outscore people. Tonight they scored, but didn't necessarily

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Speaker 1: have to outscore people. I thought they had a couple

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Speaker 1: of calls go against them in the game. Then the

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Speaker 1: Packers had that weird call and special teams on the

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Speaker 1: field goal go against them. All evens out. But you know,

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Speaker 1: you go to bed tonight, you wake up tomorrow and

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Speaker 1: you think about Jordan Love, all right, we got something here,

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Speaker 1: We're okay, We're fine. Doesn't mean you don't draft a

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Speaker 1: quarterback in this draft. I wouldn't draft them in the

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Speaker 1: first round. The Packers don't have huge needs. I really

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Speaker 1: do like their tight ends and the receivers. I really

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Speaker 1: think Green Bay is well positioned. But this is the

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Speaker 1: youngest team in the NFL, so I think you have

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Speaker 1: to come in with you know, Jordan Loves, inexperienced, incredibly

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Speaker 1: young roster. You gotta temper your expectations this year. Right now,

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Speaker 1: Detroit's on like the second third year of this group.

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Speaker 1: I think they're ahead of Green Bay. I think this

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Speaker 1: team needs the age, and I think they'll age pretty well.

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Speaker 1: So I like the journey. I like watching Jordan Love.

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Speaker 1: It's fun. There's no indignity losing to a really good,

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Speaker 1: underrated quarterback in Jared Goff. I don't get it. You

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Speaker 1: can't tell me there's twelve guys in the NFL better

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Speaker 1: than Jared Goff. I don't believe it. I think he

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Speaker 1: throws one of the best balls in the league. They

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Speaker 1: have a great online Jared Goff's history is when he

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Speaker 1: has time to throw, he's good. He made some really,

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Speaker 1: really slick throws tonight. I like him, you know that

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Speaker 1: I always have. All Right, everybody, it's time for Sharper Square.

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman, the CEO of Action Network. All odds provided

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Speaker 1: by DraftKings. I went three one one on my blazing

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Speaker 1: five picks. Rams was a push, even though I thought

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Speaker 1: they outplayed the Bengals for the first two quarters maybe

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Speaker 1: two and a half. But that's the way gambling works.

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Speaker 1: All right. Let's start with some favorites. As you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of favorites. I usually take

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Speaker 1: three to four underdogs. But I think it's interesting Miami

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Speaker 1: goes on the road again. They have struggled to stop

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen again and again. And here's what concerns me

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Speaker 1: is that Buffalo can create pressure bringing just four. That's

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Speaker 1: the way to slow down Miami New England. You don't

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Speaker 1: need sacks. You need to create a little chaos and pressure.

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Speaker 1: So I think Buffalo minus two and a half. It

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Speaker 1: is one of my favorite bets of the week. At

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Speaker 1: minus three, I still lean Buffalo. But teams that score seventy,

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Speaker 1: they feel themselves a little pull back, a little another

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Speaker 1: flight to the northeast. What say you, Sharper Squareshed.

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Speaker 2: Dude, it's like you are reading from the sharp script,

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Speaker 2: no joke. Everything you just said is why the wise

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Speaker 2: guys are on Buffalo at minus two and a half.

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Speaker 2: So a they tend to like a divisional game if

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Speaker 2: they can get the favorite under a field goal. So

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Speaker 2: there is a slight lean there. B What you said

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Speaker 2: about the pressure is key. Sean McDermott has had to

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Speaker 2: his number right. Tua has been incredibly good against every

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Speaker 2: other team, and he's been much less good against Sean McDermott.

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Speaker 2: And now Sean McDermott has what you just said, he

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Speaker 2: has film of what the Patriots did, and the Patriots

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Speaker 2: did a really good job against Tua. Now, look, they

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Speaker 2: have Christian Gonzalez who is turning into an A plus

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Speaker 2: draft pick and a dominant cover corner. But what they

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Speaker 2: basically did with that umbrella coverage was they did not

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Speaker 2: blitz very much. And if you talk about Buffalo, which

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Speaker 2: you just said as well, Buffalo has twelve sacks leading

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Speaker 2: the NFL, right, but they are the third lowest in

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Speaker 2: pressure from blitzing. So they are not doing it because

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Speaker 2: they are sending a lot of players. They are doing

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Speaker 2: it because their front four is getting to the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: And then look those are all the on the field stats.

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Speaker 2: Let's look at it from a betting point of view.

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Speaker 2: You want to fade the team that just scores seventy points.

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Speaker 2: There's not a lot of data about how teams that

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Speaker 2: score seventy points do against the spread the following week.

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Speaker 2: But I can tell you when a team scores seventy

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Speaker 2: generally you want to go against that team. There is

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Speaker 2: so much public sentiment for this team. And look, this

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Speaker 2: is a game that is kind of vexing the wise

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Speaker 2: guys a little bit. If you look at the data,

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Speaker 2: seventy percent of the money is on Buffalo. So when

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Speaker 2: you get money on one side, that generally means professional

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Speaker 2: betters like it. But the tickets are kind of split

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Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. And what's that saying is that people

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Speaker 2: aren't like the wise guys who might like Miami aren't

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Speaker 2: rushing in because they really don't know what to do

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Speaker 2: with this game. They don't know what to do with

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Speaker 2: his team Miami. One wise guy described them to me

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Speaker 2: as a little bit like the matrix full of cheat codes,

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Speaker 2: and so they're either betting Buffalo or they're passing.

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Speaker 1: My favorite bet of the week is Minnesota minus four

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Speaker 1: against Carolina at Carolina. Here's why Carolina has a problem.

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Speaker 1: There is nobody to throw to. Mingo may not be

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Speaker 1: a bust. He doesn't separate. He's a more talented Nikhil Harry.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't separate. Young quarterbacks need people who separate. That's

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Speaker 1: why actually CJ. Stroud's having a little success his low round,

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Speaker 1: mid round draft picks. They got some guys that can

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Speaker 1: play so Minnesota. Wouldn't you think of them differently if

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Speaker 1: that last pass was a touchdown and not tipped for

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Speaker 1: a pick. So they're a little undervalued fos the middle

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Speaker 1: of nowhere. Minnesota could have easily won that game, probably

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Speaker 1: should have. And Minnesota's got a veteran quarterback and elite weapon.

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Speaker 1: They're not running the football well, but they matched up

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Speaker 1: pretty well. I think against the Chargers a fairly stacked roster.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the four. I'm good with it. I

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Speaker 1: really like the Vikings minus four.

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Speaker 2: Sharper square kind of a eh like. There's no real

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Speaker 2: consensus on this game. It's not a game that folks

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Speaker 2: are pining to bet. You're not finding an advantage. It's,

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Speaker 2: as we like to say, as you and I like

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Speaker 2: to say, it's a corner TV game, right, someone's gonna

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Speaker 2: bet it so it'll be on in the sports book.

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Speaker 2: But the truth is there's no numbers edge, right and

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Speaker 2: the wise guys don't love Minnesota. They don't love the coaching,

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Speaker 2: they don't love the way they've been playing, they don't

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Speaker 2: love that defense at all. They don't like Carolina, they

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Speaker 2: don't like Bryce Young, they don't want to bet on

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Speaker 2: Andy Dalton. They agree with you about the weapons on

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Speaker 2: the edge. This game opened at three and a half.

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Speaker 2: It's been bet up to four. I would have felt

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Speaker 2: like if there was some kind of consensus, it would

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Speaker 2: have been on a home underdog and that Colin. That's

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Speaker 2: sort of the indicator, right, If you're ever looking for

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Speaker 2: signals about who you want to bet on or what

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Speaker 2: wise guys might like, if you see a home dog

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Speaker 2: and the number moves in the direction of the favorite,

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Speaker 2: then you know the wise guys are staying away from

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Speaker 2: it because wise guys tend to jump on home underdogs.

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Speaker 1: All right, you know I like underdogs. Let me give

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Speaker 1: you three that are tasty. Listen. Sam Hell was overwhelmed,

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Speaker 1: completely overwhelmed. Philadelphia is struggling offensively. It may just be

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Speaker 1: a Shane Stiken issue. They're not the same offense. They'll win.

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Speaker 1: The interior line play here, but the Washington d line

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Speaker 1: can play. When you get humiliated, I'll take the eight.

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Speaker 1: It's a division rival again. Young quarterbacks are hot and cold,

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Speaker 1: and I don't care if it's c J. Stroud Bryce Young.

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Speaker 1: Sam Hell was awful the week before. He is pretty interesting.

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Speaker 1: I think Sam Hell little course correct I'll take the

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Speaker 1: eight division rival short week for Philadelphia Sharper Square.

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Speaker 2: Totally sharp. The Wise guys actually are buyers on Sam Howe.

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Speaker 2: They were they were buyers last week on Sam Howell

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Speaker 2: when he went up against Buffalo. They've been really encouraged

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Speaker 2: by what they've seen and the way he's been able

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Speaker 2: to handle himself in the pocket. There were some throws

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Speaker 2: he had against the Broncos two weeks ago that made

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Speaker 2: them sort of stand up and take notice.

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Speaker 1: And Jos.

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Speaker 2: Great and he had a play where he stepped up

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Speaker 2: in the pocket hit Terry McLaurin deep when he was

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Speaker 2: double covered, and he put the ball in play and

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Speaker 2: gave him a chance to catch it. So the wise

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Speaker 2: guys have looked at Sam Howell and said, Okay, we

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Speaker 2: think he's better than maybe we were judging. And look

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Speaker 2: the Eagles. I bet I bet the Commanders at plus

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Speaker 2: eight and a half. The number actually moved down to eight,

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Speaker 2: it went back up to eight and a half. There

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Speaker 2: are some places where you can get it at better

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Speaker 2: than eight and a half right now. So I'm with

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Speaker 2: you on this game, and the wise guys are with

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Speaker 2: you on this game. I think there's one thing, uh,

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Speaker 2: It's why betters might want to wait and see where

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Speaker 2: they can get the best of the number. I think

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Speaker 2: the public is going to love Philadelphia. I think when

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Speaker 2: a team wins in a primetime game and they looked good,

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Speaker 2: and Eagles did look good in the second half, especially

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Speaker 2: like Jalen Hurts has started to figure it out with

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Speaker 2: his new offensive coordinator. There's gonna be a huge public

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Speaker 2: backing of the Eagles in this game. But I don't

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Speaker 2: like that in huge favorites in a divisional game. So

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Speaker 2: I'm with you on the Commanders, and so are thewise guys.

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Speaker 1: So all the odds are provided by draft kings. I

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Speaker 1: swear I saw the Patriots getting seven. Maybe I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: It's now six and a half. I still like it.

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Speaker 1: This feels ugly and low scoring. The best corner in

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Speaker 1: this game three weeks ago was Trayvon Diggs. Now it's

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Speaker 1: Christian Gonzalez. The best pass rusher is still Micah, but

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Speaker 1: Judon's having another great year. The best coach, Let's not

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Speaker 1: get into it. It's an obvious slam dunk coaching edge,

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Speaker 1: and I really I believe this. I think New England's

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Speaker 1: actually a pretty good team. I don't think they're explosive.

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Speaker 1: I think they missed what we all see a number

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Speaker 1: one receiver. But Jude ju Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker running

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Speaker 1: game with great coaching. I'm taking the six and a half.

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Speaker 1: This feels like twenty seventeen, twenty three, twenty That's what

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Speaker 1: it feels like to me. Sharper Square.

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Speaker 2: Look, the wise guys have bet the Patriots. That's why

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Speaker 2: it moved from seven down to six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think at six and a half you're kind of

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Speaker 2: playing with fire right because this is a game where

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Speaker 2: it could easily end up as a touchdown, and at

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Speaker 2: least at seven it's a key number. You're getting a push.

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Speaker 2: The debate that's going on about this Patriots team is fascinating,

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Speaker 2: and you know, you're always trying to drive a wedge

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Speaker 2: between me and my bff and co host Simon Hunter

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Speaker 2: on the favorites. But this has been a game that

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Speaker 2: we had a fierce debate about today. I actually think

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Speaker 2: this is a huge get right spot for the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: Their red zone against Arizona was terrible. This is an

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Speaker 2: opportunity for them to come back and fix it. Dak

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Speaker 2: in these spots as a favorite at home as a

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Speaker 2: bigger favorite has performed well. The problem is everything you

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Speaker 2: said about the Patriots is true, and it's why the way

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Speaker 2: guys have bet the Patriots down to six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Mac Jones might be terrible, and we can say all

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Speaker 2: we want about he played in a monsoon, or he's

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Speaker 2: played really good defenses. He has had plenty of opportunities

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Speaker 2: to put the Patriots in good positions with one key

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Speaker 2: throw that were available, and you didn't do it. So

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Speaker 2: it's a very good chance that he's just not very good.

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Speaker 2: And you're betting on a guy who's not very good

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Speaker 2: on the road against a team that could have a

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Speaker 2: really dynamic offense. So not my favorite that I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: say that, right.

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Speaker 1: I have kind of a belief now that once the

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Speaker 1: once the schedule was extended to seventeen games, people were

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Speaker 1: playing starters in the preseason even less, and so Week

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Speaker 1: one is absurdly unpredictable. The Bills were bad, the Jets

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Speaker 1: look good. That's not truth. Take out Week one for Seattle,

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Speaker 1: where they had no idea what McVeigh was doing with

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Speaker 1: a new offense. They go to Detroit and beat the Lions,

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Speaker 1: the Hammer Carolina and now they get points at New York,

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Speaker 1: and New York's kind of beat up. I think they're

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Speaker 1: the better team. I think the Rams nobody had a

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Speaker 1: clue what offense they were gonna run. Element of surprise

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Speaker 1: what they dominated that game. Since then, Seattle's pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Seattle's a good football team that I picked against the

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Speaker 1: playoffs that made the playoffs last year. Their young players

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Speaker 1: are better. I'm gonna take the points with Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Sharper square an interesting choice. It's a sharp play, but

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Speaker 2: not like, oh my god, I'm seeing so much value.

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Speaker 2: It's a sharp play because it's a short number. Is

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Speaker 2: what you just said about the Giants, like they're kind

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Speaker 2: of beat up. There could be regression there. Seattle, actually,

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Speaker 2: like you just said, has played better in the following weeks,

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Speaker 2: and I think for some reason, there's sort of a

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Speaker 2: hangover with Gino. When he doesn't play well, people tend

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Speaker 2: to think, oh, Gino's terrible, Whereas if he bounces back,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way

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Speaker 2: other quarterbacks would. Right right now, Trevor Lawrence has looked terrible.

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Speaker 2: If Trevor Lawrence plays great this weekend in London, everyone's

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Speaker 2: gonna be like, oh he's back. No one's going to think, oh,

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence is still bad. He just had one good game.

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Speaker 2: But everyone thinks that about Geno until he has six

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Speaker 2: straight games that are really good. So I can't disagree

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Speaker 2: with you on this, but definitely not one of my favorites.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so then we play the game. Oh I have

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Speaker 1: one more before we play the game. Let's hear it.

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Speaker 1: So Cleveland minus two and a half at home against Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: I think Cleveland has the best defense in the league.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore's left tackle may play not one hundred percent, same

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Speaker 1: with their center. This is Baltimore. They're beat up in

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Speaker 1: division game. I usually take points. I don't think we

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Speaker 1: like Cleveland because of their quarterback and their history. This

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Speaker 1: defense is Niners, it's Steelers, It's insane. Baltimore remains some

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Speaker 1: new perimeter weapons, new coordinators, still figuring themselves out, still

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Speaker 1: players coming back on one hundred percent. I'd swallow the

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Speaker 1: two and a half. I'll take Cleveland minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 2: Sharper square totally sharp, but it has to be two

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Speaker 2: and a half. At three, nobody's buying, But at two

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Speaker 2: and a half, everyone's buying from a professional perspective, what

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Speaker 2: you're saying, like, this defense is just it's sick, like

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Speaker 2: all the film breakdown you can do. You've probably had

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Speaker 2: Cosela on to talk about this, like Miles Garrett is

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Speaker 2: playing at a defensive Player of the Year level. From

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Speaker 2: the front four to the back line, they are just

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Speaker 2: stacked and playing incredibly well. Look, I think they've had

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Speaker 2: there have been thirty something possessions against the Browns. There's

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Speaker 2: been one trip to the red zone against them, Like

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Speaker 2: the Steelers, they didn't get into the red zone. It

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Speaker 2: was all defensive touchdowns. Like, this defense is insane. And

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Speaker 2: Jim Schwartz might have who has had had great careers,

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Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator might have the best level of talent

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Speaker 2: that matches his philosophy that he's ever had. I agree

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Speaker 2: with everything you said about Baltimore. What's tricky about Baltimore

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Speaker 2: And this is one of those things again. Are you

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Speaker 2: betting what you're seeing on the field? Are you betting

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Speaker 2: what history has told you. Lamar Jackson is a favorite, terrible.

401
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Speaker 2: We saw it against the Colts last weekend. Lamar Jackson

402
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Speaker 2: as an underdog, almost unbeatable. John Harbaugh as an underdog,

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Speaker 2: one of the best coaches in the past twenty years,

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Speaker 2: A road division underdog at three, you kind of got

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Speaker 2: a pass, or take the dog at two and a half.

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Speaker 2: You're going to take the favorite.

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Speaker 1: All right, Now, we play the game. I give you

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Speaker 1: a game that I want to be talked into, and

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Speaker 1: then a game that I totally missed Los Angeles Rams,

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Speaker 1: element of surprise game that look great. Since then the

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Speaker 1: offense is okay. Another road game. Indianapolis gets Anthony Richardson back,

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Speaker 1: Shane Steikin's excellent. Their D and O line combos actually

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Speaker 1: pretty good. I think Indy is going to be a

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Speaker 1: roller coaster team. But Anthony Richardson actually is a young quarterback,

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Speaker 1: takes some time off, watches the game, extra time to

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Speaker 1: prep with a great OC. I think I would take

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis minus one and a half the Rams. Another road trip,

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Speaker 1: short week, go home, come back. Think I would take

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Speaker 1: Indy here Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: I think you want to rethink that you're gonna want

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Speaker 2: to take the Rams. That's the sharp side. It's actually

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Speaker 2: a big, big favorite of the wise guys this week.

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Speaker 2: They're all buyers on Matthew Stafford. He's actually having a

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Speaker 2: really good year. And if you look at that game

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Speaker 2: against the Bengals, there's a couple of plays that stand

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Speaker 2: out that win against them. You know, we've talked about

427
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 2: this on the show. We do this thing at Action

428
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 2: Network called the Luck Rankings, which basically takes all of

429
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: the unpredictable plays and puts them in a formula with

430
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: the predictable plays and tells you, if everything was even,

431
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 2: what should the score of that game been and the

432
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 2: Rams would have won that game. And the biggest differential

433
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 2: between teams that have gotten lucky this far in the

434
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: season and the teams that have gotten unlucky this far

435
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: in the season is between the Rams and the Colts

436
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: in this game. So to me, if I just see that,

437
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 2: I'm automatically going to play the Rams. But the numbers

438
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 2: also stack up to Stafford is a better quarterback. This

439
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: Rams defense is playing better than people expect. Anthony Richardson

440
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 2: huge fan like it's Bijon, it's Anthony Richardson, and IT'SHJ.

441
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 2: Shroud if you're talking about offensive rookie of the Year.

442
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 2: But again, it'll be his first game back after a concussion.

443
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: It's not like he's whipping the ball downfield. It's sixty

444
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 2: yards per attempt, right, so he's not blowing it up.

445
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: I think he's a really good player. But I think

446
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: the Rams as short dogs is the play here.

447
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I call the game to talk me

448
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: into all right, what did I miss? What's a sometimes

449
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: an ugly one? I did think about Jacksonville. My guess

450
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 1: I thought Jacksonville's the side against that lamb. That's what

451
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 1: it felt. That's one of the ones I didn't put in,

452
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 1: but I thought that's an ugly one. My guess is

453
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 1: Jacksonville overseas, there's a little pressure on them and they're

454
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 1: not really up for it. I almost love them playing

455
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 1: overseas and like, you know what, we're going to get

456
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 1: out of this country, go do what we do, and

457
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: we got really good players. Am I right? Am I

458
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: guessing right here?

459
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 2: No? No, you're totally right. Like Jacksonville is the side.

460
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: It's the side the wise guys, like it's sitting there

461
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: at minus three. But yeah, you know, there's a lot

462
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,959
Speaker 2: of history to tell you that in these London games

463
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 2: you want to take the favorites. There's a lot in

464
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: the field to tell you that you want to take

465
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 2: the jags here Look, I think in the first two games,

466
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 2: Atlanta surprised a lot of people and made people think

467
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 2: twice because they were able to come back, they were

468
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: able to maintain. And then what you saw last week

469
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 2: against Detroit, where a lot of wise guys were on

470
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 2: the Falcons, Desmond Ritter just was terrible. And so without

471
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 2: a quarterback, this is a gain right spot for Trevor

472
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: Lawrence and the Jags. So the wise guys are going

473
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 2: to be playing Jacksonville. But I will give you a

474
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 2: game that we didn't discuss. Okay, I'm a little surprised

475
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 2: you didn't bring it up, because this is a perfect

476
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 2: spot for you. The Cincinnati Bengals on the road at

477
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee Titans opened at plus two and

478
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 2: a half. It's gone back and forth. It went down

479
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 2: to two because the wise guys like the Titans. Then

480
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 2: the public is coming in on the Bengals because they

481
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 2: just won in prime time. Look, you've got a team

482
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: whose value is deflated because they just got demolished by

483
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 2: potentially in historically great defense in the Browns. Right, So

484
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 2: that's the Titans, and then a team in the Bengals

485
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: that beat the Rams. The number on that game had

486
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 2: swung wildly. The Rams opened to six and a half

487
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,719
Speaker 2: point Dogs, got that down all the way to two

488
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 2: and a half point Dogs because of the Borough news

489
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 2: Borough plays. He doesn't look great, but he wins. Jamar

490
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 2: Chase has a breakout game. It's a prime time game.

491
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 2: You're automatically going to have the public come in on

492
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 2: that team. Yeah, right, And so all of a sudden,

493
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: you've got a team that the public loves on the

494
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 2: road against a Tennessee team that is one of the

495
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: best coach teams in the NFL. They've got a really

496
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:24,479
Speaker 2: good defensive line, they've got a really smart quarterback. As

497
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 2: much as people don't want to say they like Ryan Tannehill,

498
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 2: he plays well when he's put in a position to succeed.

499
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 2: He doesn't make the mistakes. And Mike Frabel is a

500
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 2: super star as an underdog. Colin, there is one coach

501
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 2: the past twenty years who is over five hundred straight

502
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: up as an underdog, not covering the spread. I mean

503
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 2: straight up he wins as an underdog. It's Mike Rabel.

504
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 2: He's the most profitable coach against the spread as an

505
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 2: underdog the past twenty years.

506
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't pick that game because for the

507
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: first time this year, Burrow is playing without a calf restraint,

508
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: like he's now playing, he's practicing, he's back, and I

509
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 1: don't I don't like betting against Joe when he's back

510
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 1: and they have to win this game. That was That

511
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 1: was That was a game that Jay Mac and I

512
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: had discussed off air this week, and I'm like, I now,

513
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: Burrow's not wearing any calf restraints. He's one hundred percent healthy.

514
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: And by the way, I thought he played better in

515
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: the second half against the Rams, calf loosened up a

516
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: little bit. I'm like, end of that game, it was like,

517
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: is pretty interesting. All right, that's an interesting one. So

518
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 1: I don't know.

519
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 2: I betting means doing bad things, Colin, Sometimes you got

520
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 2: to do things.

521
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: That's listen. I like Minnesota minus four a lot. You

522
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: think it's a nothing burger. I like it a lot.

523
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota had that tip pass on in their favor.

524
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: We would think of them differently. It's a play. It's

525
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 1: one play and beat up. What do they have?

526
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: They have the h one of the leading passers in

527
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 2: the NFL, one of the leading receivers in the NFL.

528
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: And yet they could very much go down as one

529
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 2: of those teams like the Jeff George lad Atlanta Falcons

530
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 2: with Andre Risen right where they run up these huge,

531
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: huge numbers. They never scare anybody. Nobody cares about them

532
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 2: because it's just it's a sugar rush. It's empty calories.

533
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: You want to do something scary, Colin, You want to

534
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 2: know the number that was just moving today. It's been

535
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 2: sitting for say five days since Sunday, and today the

536
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 2: wise guy started pounding it. Are you ready? Are you ready?

537
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 2: I am New York Jets home underdogs against the Kansas

538
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 2: City Chiefs. Tell you right now, I'll tell you right now.

539
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 2: I bet this at the Jets plus ten. It had

540
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: been in nine and a half for most of the week.

541
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: It bumped up to ten. Yesterday I grabbed it went

542
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: back down to nine and a half. I'm not saying

543
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: I moved the number back. I'm just saying after I

544
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 2: grabbed the ten, it went down to nine and a half.

545
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: Uh And today it's been been steaming in the Jets

546
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 2: direction below nine. So you want to talk about a

547
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 2: game the wise guys are on. It's the New York

548
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 2: Jets can't do it.

549
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: I can not do it. Well did Pruden?

550
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: Not gonna do it?

551
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:27,239
Speaker 1: Not gonna do it. Chad Milman, CEO Action Net. We're good.

552
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: See anybody, all right, brother, good luck this week three

553
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 1: one and one. I feel good, dude.

554
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: I was so excited three one in one. You texted

555
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 2: me about the Patriots. I'm like, you gotta do the Patriots.

556
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: I was so glad for you. I knew you could

557
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 2: come back. I knew you.

558
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: Could do it. Maybe maybe temporary when I came back,

559
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: doesn't matter.

560
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 2: See you later.

561
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 1: The volume