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Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy is out. The race for Speaker begins again.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest show in politics. This day after
Speaker 1: the Speaker of the House was ousted for the first
Speaker 1: time ever in American history, and we're already naming names
Speaker 1: on a possible replacement, with one week until the Speaker's
Speaker 1: election and just about forty five days until a possible
Speaker 1: government shut down. We are joined this hour by Congressman
Speaker 1: French Hill, the Republican from Arkansas, still in the Capitol today,
Speaker 1: and brings us his view on what happens next with
Speaker 1: analysis from our signature panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis
Speaker 1: and Genie Shanzano are with us for the hour. We're
Speaker 1: live on the radio, on the satellites, and on YouTube,
Speaker 1: where you search Bloomberg Global News to find us here
Speaker 1: in studio. Welcome to this Wednesday edition of Sound On,
Speaker 1: where we're hearing the term uncharted territory a lot again today.
Speaker 3: On this vote, the Ya's are two sixteen, the nay's
Speaker 3: are two ten. The resolution is adopted without objection. The
Speaker 3: motion to reconsider is laid on the table. The office
Speaker 3: of Speaker of the House of the United States House
Speaker 3: of Representatives is hereby declared vacant.
Speaker 1: How about it drops the gavel? Who never heard that before?
Speaker 1: Happened late yesterday round four thirty in the afternoon Washington time.
Speaker 1: It was later that evening that the ousted speaker made
Speaker 1: clear his intentions not to try this again.
Speaker 4: I will not run for speaker again. I'll have the
Speaker 4: conference pick somebody else.
Speaker 1: And that's where we begin with Congressman french Hill, a
Speaker 1: Republican from Arkansas, joins us. Of course, we talk frequently
Speaker 1: about financial matters as a member of the Financial Services Committee,
Speaker 1: but congressmen were in a different world today, and I
Speaker 1: sure would love your take on all of this. I
Speaker 1: know that you were not a fan of what Congressman
Speaker 1: mac Gates was up to. The language that you used
Speaker 1: in an interaction with him was widely publicized. I know
Speaker 1: that you wanted to keep Speaker McCarthy in place. But
Speaker 1: now that this has happened, can your Republican conference coalesce
Speaker 1: around another speaker in just a week's time.
Speaker 5: Hey, Joe, it's great to be with you. That's essential
Speaker 5: if we want to counter of the bad policies of
Speaker 5: Joe Biden, if we want to be on equal footing
Speaker 5: with Chuck Schumer's Democratic control Senate, we need to rally
Speaker 5: behind a new leader in the House Republican Conference that
Speaker 5: can lead us and represent us and represent the millions
Speaker 5: of conservative voices that elected a Republican House in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty two. And I know we'll do that. I think
Speaker 5: there's hard days ahead of us, there's a lot of
Speaker 5: work ahead of us, but I believe over the next
Speaker 5: week the House Republicans will coalesce around a new leader
Speaker 5: and be able to move forward, and we need to
Speaker 5: move fast because of the forty five day period we
Speaker 5: have before November seventeenth to try to complete a spending
Speaker 5: deal with the Senate.
Speaker 1: Well, what do you think we're in for here? Would
Speaker 1: this next week long conversation that you're having within the
Speaker 1: family prevent what we saw in January where it's fifteen
Speaker 1: rounds the wild West on the floor? Is your intention
Speaker 1: to coalesce around a speaker before it gets to voting.
Speaker 6: Exactly.
Speaker 5: I hope that members will reflect on what a terrible
Speaker 5: day yesterday was where the wishes of ninety six percent
Speaker 5: of the members of the House Republican Conference were not
Speaker 5: honored by aid of their colleagues, and that we reflect
Speaker 5: on what that's done to the strength of the conservative
Speaker 5: movement in the House and leadership of House Republicans on
Speaker 5: these issues, and come back together either Monday night or
Speaker 5: Tuesday and begin a series of meetings that will allow
Speaker 5: us to move forward with a new speaker.
Speaker 1: Well, this is interesting, Congressman, because we are hearing named
Speaker 1: Steve Scalise. Not a surprise to hear the Majority leader's
Speaker 1: name floated. Jim Jordan also apparently is officially running now
Speaker 1: for speaker. I spoke with him along with my colleague
Speaker 1: Anne Marie, just two nights ago. This was Monday evening
Speaker 1: on the balcony of the Cannon House office building right
Speaker 1: where you are. Here is how this part of the
Speaker 1: conversation went. Congressman, you're on a lot of short lists.
Speaker 1: You went through this at the beginning of the year
Speaker 1: when it was a fight for speaker. Of course, Kevin
Speaker 1: McCarthy survived to believe it was fifteen rounds. Yeah, But
Speaker 1: as long as you're on these short lists, would you
Speaker 1: stand to be speaker if you want.
Speaker 7: I don't want to.
Speaker 8: I don't want to be speaker. I want I want
Speaker 8: Kevin Artthy to be speaker. I want to focus on
Speaker 8: the job.
Speaker 9: If you were asked to serve your country in that role.
Speaker 8: Well, I want to focus on the job I have.
Speaker 8: I think I'm serving the folks in the fourth disc
Speaker 8: of Ohio. That's my main job is to do what
Speaker 8: I told them I was going to do when they
Speaker 8: gave me the privilege to represent them, their families, their business,
Speaker 8: our communities across West central and North central Ohio.
Speaker 1: So Congressman Hill, if he didn't want the job, two
Speaker 1: days ago. Do you trust his intentions? Now?
Speaker 6: You know? I do.
Speaker 5: Look, Jim Jordan's a very capable leader in Congress, cheering
Speaker 5: the Judiciary Committee, chairing the Subcommittee, a special select committee
Speaker 5: on the weaponization of the federal government. He's been a
Speaker 5: great voice and leader in the conservative movement, not only
Speaker 5: in the House but across the country. But he was
Speaker 5: a firm supporter of Kevin McCarthy. He rejects what took
Speaker 5: place on the House floor yesterday, and he gave a
Speaker 5: tremendous speech in favor of Kevin yesterday. But yesterday was yesterday,
Speaker 5: and we now need to think about the future.
Speaker 1: Would you vote for him for speaker?
Speaker 5: I think he's an eligible candidate for speaker. Personally, I'm
Speaker 5: waiting over the next few days. I want to hear
Speaker 5: from my colleagues. Talk to my colleagues, because we have
Speaker 5: a tough decision to make. We need a leader to
Speaker 5: carry us through the next election, which is a presidential election,
Speaker 5: and counter this Joe Biden agenda and make sure all
Speaker 5: the Republicans in the House are on the same page. Joe,
Speaker 5: we have a lot of work to do, and we
Speaker 5: don't have time for any more Shenanigans like we've had
Speaker 5: this year.
Speaker 1: Well, we heard some pretty flower language on the floor
Speaker 1: yesterday when it came to describing the intentions motivations of
Speaker 1: Congressman Matt Gates. Now that this has happened, there's been
Speaker 1: talk of expelling him from the Republican Conference. I don't
Speaker 1: know how exactly that would work. Congressman. What's going to
Speaker 1: become of the gentleman from Florida? Now?
Speaker 5: Well, I'm glad we're in a couple of day cooling
Speaker 5: off period, Joe. I think members have gone home to
Speaker 5: their families and to their districts to reflect on what's
Speaker 5: happened over the past few weeks, and particularly yesterday. McCarthy
Speaker 5: was a solid leader of the House Republicans. He scored
Speaker 5: a lot of victories, led us to some major wins,
Speaker 5: and the assertions made that he's not good on spending,
Speaker 5: not good on the border, not good at negotiating with
Speaker 5: Biden is all poppycock. Nobody buys that, and that's why
Speaker 5: I had the support of ninety six percent of the
Speaker 5: Republican Conference. So that's why I think you need to
Speaker 5: have people reflecting over this weekend and coming back together
Speaker 5: next Tuesday. For a family conversation about where to go forward.
Speaker 1: Well, nothing would keep I'm assuming a Congressman Gates from
Speaker 1: doing this again. If the next Speaker, for instance, were
Speaker 1: to put up a cr and maybe get some Democratic votes,
Speaker 1: I guess I'm just curious. Do you think he should
Speaker 1: be in the family, Should he be serving on committees
Speaker 1: as a Republican member.
Speaker 5: I think this is for the conference to decide. Look,
Speaker 5: if people say they want a speaker to lead us,
Speaker 5: that they'll buy into and keep and pledge allegiance to
Speaker 5: in the sense in the most positive sense, not in
Speaker 5: a dictatorial way. But we'll work together to counter the
Speaker 5: Biden agenda going into a present sidential election year and
Speaker 5: let Speaker that woman or that man serve until after
Speaker 5: the election in twenty twenty four. I think that would
Speaker 5: give confidence to people to support a speaker. Let's lead
Speaker 5: the charge, and then we can revisit who the Speaker
Speaker 5: of the House is the Republican leader after the election
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty four. We need some certainty here in
Speaker 5: our leadership.
Speaker 1: How about a speaker french Hill.
Speaker 5: Gosh, I have a big job on the House Financial
Speaker 5: Services Committee, the Foreign Affairs Committee, the Intelligence Committee, and
Speaker 5: I love that work, and I'm going to stick with it.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the backdrop here, Congressman, and that's against
Speaker 1: the potential government shutdown we were looking at November seventeenth. Here,
Speaker 1: does this process does the ouster of Kevin McCarthy make
Speaker 1: it more likely that we will shut down next month?
Speaker 5: Boy, this is such a good question, Joe, a smart
Speaker 5: question and a very troubling question for me. Let's assume
Speaker 5: that the House Republicans can elect the speaker next Tuesday
Speaker 5: or Wednesday.
Speaker 6: We've lost five legislative.
Speaker 5: Days of about sixteen legislative days that are scheduled left
Speaker 5: to complete this work. One of the assertions by the
Speaker 5: rebels in Matt Gates's corner where well we're not getting
Speaker 5: these spending bills done on time.
Speaker 6: Well, guess what.
Speaker 5: Ejecting the speaker makes that even tougher, because you can't
Speaker 5: go to the House floor and do any business of
Speaker 5: the House without a speaker decided. So we're putting more
Speaker 5: pressure on the process, weakening the hand in my view
Speaker 5: of Republicans, because that November seventeenth date is charging at us.
Speaker 5: This week, we would have done two appropriations bills, and
Speaker 5: we would do two more the next week, and then
Speaker 5: we would start conferencing these bills with the Senate. And
Speaker 5: that's what we need to be doing in order to
Speaker 5: get a good conservative spending position of the House, negotiating
Speaker 5: with the Democrat control Senate.
Speaker 1: Well, you stayed in town. Where'd everybody go, Congress when
Speaker 1: you could be working on this right now?
Speaker 5: Well that's why I'm in town, and I am working
Speaker 5: on it right now.
Speaker 6: And the whole I wish was here today, but they're not.
Speaker 5: As you know, the Democrats were going out to California
Speaker 5: to the Feinstein meeting. I mean, I'm sorry, I beg
Speaker 5: your pardon, missus Feinstein's funeral, and a lot of the
Speaker 5: House members were meeting today in preparation for that election
Speaker 5: that we'll call for next week.
Speaker 1: Well, let's push this forward a little bit. You and
Speaker 1: I tend to talk about the economy when you're on
Speaker 1: there's a great concern that the hard landing scenario is
Speaker 1: looking a lot more likely as student loan payments resume,
Speaker 1: as interest rates creep higher. Yeah, a government shut down
Speaker 1: to that and an auto workers strike. Congressman, we could
Speaker 1: be talking about a very different economy a couple of
Speaker 1: months from now.
Speaker 5: What's your view, you know, Joe, that's been my view.
Speaker 5: I've never been a full soft landing person. The cause
Speaker 5: of the steepness of the interest rate increases, that was
Speaker 5: the largest most steep increase in short term rates since
Speaker 5: nineteen eighty.
Speaker 6: It has a lagging impact.
Speaker 5: So I think we're just now feeling theer initious effects
Speaker 5: from those monetary policy issues. And as you say, there's
Speaker 5: some other consumer related issues and on the supply side,
Speaker 5: particularly a UAW strike or more bad decisions regulatorily from
Speaker 5: the Biden administration. So I'm very cautious about the economy
Speaker 5: right now, and I think people have been lulled by that.
Speaker 5: But when you combine economic worries and what I've seen
Speaker 5: in the response to the deficit spending two trillion dollars
Speaker 5: and no idea of how to get spending under control,
Speaker 5: you see the ten year rate pushing five percent.
Speaker 6: Those are concerning signs to me.
Speaker 1: Well, that absolutely is the five percent handle here is
Speaker 1: looking pretty scary for the stock markets, for all of
Speaker 1: the markets. Congressman, does the Fed need to stop down
Speaker 1: and take another look at this? Considering the lag effect
Speaker 1: of these historic interest rate hikes, This idea of higher
Speaker 1: for longer is spooking a lot of folks right out
Speaker 1: of the market.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 5: Well, we've got to be concerned about financial stability, bank health,
Speaker 5: market reaction, but we're also concerned about getting inflation down
Speaker 5: to the two percent target. I know where how cautious
Speaker 5: and prudent the chairman pal is. But as I've said
Speaker 5: on this show for over a year now, almost two years,
Speaker 5: the activities of fiscal stimulus and runaway spending by Joe
Speaker 5: Biden is making the attempt to rein in inflation tougher
Speaker 5: for the Central Bank. They cannot do it together, Amity
Speaker 5: schlays and I wrote an op ed of the Wall
Speaker 5: Street Journal about that about.
Speaker 6: A year ago, warning of this.
Speaker 5: And so if we don't get spending under control, we've
Speaker 5: got a fiscal crisis.
Speaker 6: If we don't, as you say.
Speaker 5: Watch the negative consequences of steep interest rate increases, we
Speaker 5: may have some instability crisis in the market. So this
Speaker 5: is a tough position for the Federal Reserve chairman, but
Speaker 5: he's up to it, and I'm counting on him reading
Speaker 5: the data and making the right recommendations.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know this week's jobs report is going to
Speaker 1: play into the future here quite a bit. We've got
Speaker 1: a breaking news headline. Congressman from punch Bowl, Steve Scalise,
Speaker 1: says he will run for speaker. I'm guessing that you
Speaker 1: heard this or maybe you expected this to be coming.
Speaker 1: Weigh in on that as you choose, But looking forward
Speaker 1: to next week's speaker election and considering the transition here,
Speaker 1: what will be the future of Matt Gates's ethics investigation
Speaker 1: under different leadership? If any.
Speaker 5: Well, I'm not sure. I mean, that's really up to
Speaker 5: the House Ethics Committee. They operate in a very independent manner,
Speaker 5: independent of the views of individual members of Congress, to
Speaker 5: assess any assertions or allegations there. But Steve Scalise, our
Speaker 5: majority leader, has been in leadership now for years. He's
Speaker 5: been a very capable whip. He's been a capable majority leader,
Speaker 5: so it doesn't surprise me that he's tossed his hat
Speaker 5: in the ring for speaker, and now you have two
Speaker 5: to publicly address candidates that's got the talent and leadership
Speaker 5: ability to be I think high quality leaders.
Speaker 6: In the Republican Conference.
Speaker 5: But we'll have to wait and see what our collective
Speaker 5: members think is in the best judgment.
Speaker 1: Of the House Lastly, Congressman, do you want to see
Speaker 1: a rules change that might make it more difficult for
Speaker 1: Matt Gates to tip over the cart all by himself
Speaker 1: like yesterday.
Speaker 5: You know, we've had that rule of vak the chair
Speaker 5: with one member offering it for one hundred years. The
Speaker 5: only Speaker who didn't face that constraint was the one
Speaker 5: and only Nancy Pelosi. So there are a lot of
Speaker 5: members that would stick with that tradition. But in a
Speaker 5: modern world, I think that'll be the subject of strong
Speaker 5: debate inside the conference and an important issue for candidates
Speaker 5: running for speaker. What's their view on that? Should they
Speaker 5: would they support a House rule change? And how would
Speaker 5: the members vote on that? And would members be bound
Speaker 5: by a vote on that? For example, you're not supposed
Speaker 5: to offer a motion to vac without the approval of
Speaker 5: the House Republican Conference, But I don't believe any of
Speaker 5: the eight followed that House rule.
Speaker 1: You know, we had a conversation with Mike Lawler, your
Speaker 1: colleague from New York, a Republican lawmaker who won in
Speaker 1: a Biden district. As were frequently reminded, he threatened to
Speaker 1: take the gavel throw it at Matt Gates hid him
Speaker 1: between the eyes. That comment has gone viral on social media,
Speaker 1: and I wonder if you share the sentiment.
Speaker 5: Well, I think my views on what happened last week
Speaker 5: are pretty well known and pretty well covered. I don't
Speaker 5: know that throwing gabbles is the way to build comedy
Speaker 5: inside the House Republican Conference. We need to remember what
Speaker 5: the mission is here. We need to be taking this
Speaker 5: battle to the American people to end the Biden administration's
Speaker 5: failed policies on the border, economically, in national security policy,
Speaker 5: and elect a president that's a Republican and re elect
Speaker 5: our House and good members like Mike Lawler and God
Speaker 5: Willing reelect a Republican Senate. That's what we need to do.
Speaker 5: We need to be focused on that, not throwing gavels
Speaker 5: at each other.
Speaker 1: Very diplomatics today, Congressman, I appreciate your time.
Speaker 6: I'm doing the best.
Speaker 5: I'm trying to earn a new place and also keep
Speaker 5: the show a little more family friendly than last week.
Speaker 1: Well, thank you, I appreciate that very much. Congressman Frenchhill,
Speaker 1: Republican from Arkansas.
Speaker 2: With us, you're listening to The Bloomberg sound on podcast.
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: You have two official announcements for Speaker, Jim Jordan, who
Speaker 1: told us the other night he didn't want this job,
Speaker 1: and Steve Scalise. They're both going for it. We have
Speaker 1: a speaker's race, and we're joined now by Jeanie Schanzano
Speaker 1: and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, the news has
Speaker 1: been fast and furious. Around this time yesterday, we knew
Speaker 1: that Democrats would not back Kevin McCarthy. He is no
Speaker 1: longer Speaker. Patrick McHenry is in place as acting Speaker,
Speaker 1: and we heard from french Hill a bit earlier this hour.
Speaker 1: Looking ahead one week to a speaker's election, will Republicans
Speaker 1: have coalesced around a candidate by then.
Speaker 10: Well, I think that's one of the reasons you're seeing
Speaker 10: people announce right now is because they're having a trouble
Speaker 10: getting communications. People are en route back to their districts,
Speaker 10: some stuck around Washington. They have these presentations today. Some
Speaker 10: of the candidates are afforded time with the Texas delegation
Speaker 10: twenty five members strong, probably the biggest single coalition Republicans
Speaker 10: from any one state. And so the clock was taken.
Speaker 10: And I think that Jim Jordan's a great example, told
Speaker 10: you two days ago, you know that he didn't want
Speaker 10: to be speaker. A day ago, right after the vote,
Speaker 10: he said he's going to leave that to the caucus.
Speaker 10: And today he announces he's a candidate for speaker, so
Speaker 10: that other members know that he's actually interested in the job,
Speaker 10: and he doesn't have to call him all individually to
Speaker 10: tell him that. This is a difficult communications problem for
Speaker 10: these people who want to run, because they've got four
Speaker 10: days until they make a presentation to the caucus, and
Speaker 10: none of them want that to be the reason that
Speaker 10: they're going to win.
Speaker 7: They want to already lined.
Speaker 10: Up votes, and then Wednesday's the vote, so you know,
Speaker 10: the clock is really ticking down to the eleventh hour already.
Speaker 7: And you can see.
Speaker 10: Why Congressman McHenry, the speaker pro tempt gambled everybody out
Speaker 10: and said go home till Tuesday, because there literally would
Speaker 10: have been no time if they'd gone right into a
Speaker 10: speaker's election so well, caught us by surprise. Yesterday makes
Speaker 10: some sense today.
Speaker 1: Fascinating take from Rick Davis, Geenie, what did you make
Speaker 1: of the president? First of all, he sounded exhausted. I
Speaker 1: don't know if that had anything to do with the
Speaker 1: events in the past twenty four hours, but the dysfunction
Speaker 1: always concerns me. What would this mean for his agenda?
Speaker 11: I think the President is going to continue to move
Speaker 11: forward and focus on the business of the people, and
Speaker 11: that's what he was talking about today. Student loan forgiveness.
Speaker 11: I've just been doing some work on this. The phones
Speaker 11: are jam packed for people who need to repay their
Speaker 11: student loans. It is a very, very stressful time. So
Speaker 11: while the chaos is consuming the Republicans in the House,
Speaker 11: this is what millions and millions of Americans, families, parents,
Speaker 11: former students, current students are deeply concerned about. And that's
Speaker 11: what the President is going to be doing. And he
Speaker 11: ended with a question on Ukraine. And there is a big,
Speaker 11: big question looming over the speaker's fight, whether it is
Speaker 11: Jim Jordan, whether it is Steve Scalise or somebody else
Speaker 11: who and they're all vying for this position. Are they
Speaker 11: going to make a concession on Ukraine funding which so many,
Speaker 11: an increasing number of Republicans the House are gearing for it,
Speaker 11: to tie it to the border security And if they
Speaker 11: do that, what position does it leave Ukraine in? You
Speaker 11: know who's happy about yesterday, Vladimir Putin and Moscow. We
Speaker 11: are seeing Eastern Europe move away from support for Ukraine,
Speaker 11: and we are seeing that in the US Congress. That
Speaker 11: is an enormous, enormous concern for the United States, and
Speaker 11: the President is going to need to do a lot
Speaker 11: to shore up support for that, as are Republicans like
Speaker 11: Mitch McConnell who truly support this funding.
Speaker 1: Well, let's get into this a little bit. I do
Speaker 1: want to ask you both about a little bit more
Speaker 1: about the Speaker's election next week. But the view from
Speaker 1: the White House is important here, Rick, the President couldn't
Speaker 1: keep secret that he was planning a major address on this.
Speaker 1: This is clearly what the conversation was in the room
Speaker 1: before he walked out in front of reporters. But you've
Speaker 1: made the case that a couple of people up here
Speaker 1: who say, you know, not another dollar for Ukraine, do
Speaker 1: not compare to the majority of Democrats and Republicans who
Speaker 1: support this funding effort. How much of a challenge will
Speaker 1: this be for Joe Biden.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think he's actually doing the right thing, and
Speaker 10: I think the calculus that I'm hearing from this news
Speaker 10: is that he's got to convince the American public to
Speaker 10: be on his side, who then will help him convince
Speaker 10: Congress to be on his side for Ukraine funding. Part
Speaker 10: of what is happening in Congress is a realization that
Speaker 10: there's less and less support amongst the American electorate and
Speaker 10: that needs to change otherwise Ultimately that will undermine support
Speaker 10: to Congress. And so going to a presidential speech, hopefully
Speaker 10: prime time, hopefully he'll have a little bit more energy
Speaker 10: in that speech that he just gave on student loans,
Speaker 10: he can be a layout compelling reason why it's in
Speaker 10: our national interests to see Ukraine victorious in this war
Speaker 10: of Russian aggression. And that will in and out but
Speaker 10: self add momentum to his effort for funding on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 10: A part of its parliamentary maneuvering, the House has got
Speaker 10: to figure out a way to operate on every issue,
Speaker 10: not just Ukraine funding. But they do need to determine
Speaker 10: whether or not they can get a fair vote, an
Speaker 10: open vote for Republicans and Democrats who support this, an
Speaker 10: overwhelming majority to allow this fundy to move forward.
Speaker 1: If Joe Biden's going to do this, genie, he needs
Speaker 1: to tear down this wall kind of speech. Is he
Speaker 1: capable of doing that?
Speaker 11: Yeah? I think he is. You know, he has surprised us.
Speaker 11: It was not that long ago that many of us
Speaker 11: were surprised by the way he maneuvered, for instance, in
Speaker 11: the State of the Union to make Republicans agree that
Speaker 11: they weren't going to touch Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid,
Speaker 11: and he did that publicly. So I do think he
Speaker 11: is capable of doing it. But I also think this
Speaker 11: is not just up to Joe Biden. Let's not forget again.
Speaker 11: Whoever runs for speaker needs two hundred and eighteen votes.
Speaker 12: To get there.
Speaker 11: Need to deal not with the majority of the Republican caucus,
Speaker 11: but with the hardliners who are going to demand concessions
Speaker 11: presumably again, and that will likely involve Ukraine funding. So
Speaker 11: it is Republican leadership we need to see in the
Speaker 11: House on Ukraine funding. And yes, it is critically important
Speaker 11: that Joe Biden tell the American people why this is
Speaker 11: in our interest and needs to say it over and
Speaker 11: over again. But Republican leadership in the House needs to
Speaker 11: stand up and say it as well. Kevin McCarthy said
Speaker 11: it was critically important, and then what did he do.
Speaker 11: He bent to the hardliners to keep his job. And
Speaker 11: that is the fear as we move forward with another
Speaker 11: concession out of whoever is the next speaker going you
Speaker 11: know when this vote occurs next week or the week after.
Speaker 1: Spending time with our panel, Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: I want to hear from you both on the future
Speaker 1: of Matt Gates, and I'm going to just walk through
Speaker 1: a couple of moments over the past twenty four hours
Speaker 1: that might help us paint the picture here of what
Speaker 1: he is now looking at. Of course, the motion to
Speaker 1: vacate was successful. We'll start with Kevin McCarthy, the now
Speaker 1: former Speaker, said this whole thing was personal, and he
Speaker 1: makes a reference to the ethics investigation into Matt Gates.
Speaker 4: Listen, look, you all know Matt Gates.
Speaker 7: You know it was personal.
Speaker 4: It had nothing to do about spending, It had nothing
Speaker 4: to do about everything he accused somebody of he was
Speaker 4: doing it. All was about getting attention from you. I mean,
Speaker 4: we're getting email fundraisers from him as he's doing it.
Speaker 1: Join in quickly.
Speaker 4: That's not governing, that's not becoming of a member of Congress.
Speaker 4: And regardless of what you think, I've seen the texts.
Speaker 1: It was all about his ethics. But that's all right,
Speaker 1: I've seen the text. Yes, it was all about his ethics.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the floor. Congressman Garrett Graves, of course,
Speaker 1: an ally of Speaker McCarthy, helped to negotiate the debt
Speaker 1: ceiling deal. Outraged by Matt Gate's fundraising. What's going on in.
Speaker 13: This country today, what's going on in this body where
Speaker 13: you have Freedom Works, Heritage, shipbroy and Jim Jordan say
Speaker 13: something's conservative and these folks say it's not, and they're right.
Speaker 13: And all of a sudden, my phone keeps sending text messages,
Speaker 13: text messages saying, hey, give me money. Oh look at that,
Speaker 13: Oh look give me money. I filed the motion to
Speaker 13: vacate using official actions, official actions to raise money.
Speaker 1: It's disgusting.
Speaker 13: It's what's disgusting about Washington.
Speaker 1: It's what's disgusting. He's not holding back in this case,
Speaker 1: and Matt Gates did answer to those charges.
Speaker 14: Listen, I take no lecture on asking patriotic Americans to
Speaker 14: weigh in and country tribute to this fight from those
Speaker 14: who would grovel and bend mee for the lobbyists and
Speaker 14: special interests who own our leadership, who have followed Boo
Speaker 14: all you want, who have followed out this town and
Speaker 14: have borrowed against the future of our future generations. I'll
Speaker 14: be happy to fund my political operation through the work
Speaker 14: of hardworking Americans ten and twenty and thirty dollars at
Speaker 14: a time, and you all keep showing up at the
Speaker 14: lobbyist fundraisers and see how that goes for you.
Speaker 1: Okay, Rick Davis, what do you think of Matt Gates
Speaker 1: here also being accused of preparing a run for governor
Speaker 1: of Florida? How does this wash out? Is he expelled
Speaker 1: from the conference? Can they do that? Will he lose
Speaker 1: committee assignments? What's next?
Speaker 10: Sounds like we need a GOP therapist for that caucus.
Speaker 7: I mean, it has only gotten worse.
Speaker 10: And I think that press conference you know last night
Speaker 10: after the vote by Kevin McCarthy, now just Congressman McCarthy
Speaker 10: was really telling, I mean really through all these eight
Speaker 10: people who voted against him for the speakership under the
Speaker 10: bus talked about actually running primaries against him and said
Speaker 10: they are not conservatives. And if you want to talk
Speaker 10: about people who just did business with the Democrats, it's
Speaker 10: those eight people who just joined with the Democrats decide
Speaker 10: who's going to be this next speaker. So, I mean,
Speaker 10: I don't know how you put this all back together.
Speaker 10: I mean, like you can't make these kinds of statements,
Speaker 10: Garrett Graves. Uh, you know, Kevin McCarthy, I mean, you know,
Speaker 10: you look at the reaction yesterday and it was hot,
Speaker 10: and these are these are not relationships that are going
Speaker 10: to get repaired anytime soon, and certainly not between now
Speaker 10: and the next vote for speaker. So who in the
Speaker 10: in the caucus is able to have a conversation with
Speaker 10: these various factions in a way that is anything other
Speaker 10: than going to ignite them into all out war like
Speaker 10: they were in yesterday. So, uh, if Steven Scalize wants
Speaker 10: to be the speaker, and evidently Matt Gates thinks he'd
Speaker 10: be great, then the question is going to be if
Speaker 10: you are going to do business with Matt Gates, then
Speaker 10: how about the other two hundred and ten people who
Speaker 10: disagree with them?
Speaker 7: So, I mean, I think you're really stuck in a
Speaker 7: bind in this caucus.
Speaker 10: It will be seriously interesting to see who can prevail
Speaker 10: and how many of those ballots we suffered through fifteen
Speaker 10: with Kevin McCarthy. I mean, you better get out the
Speaker 10: mattresses because next week could be a long week.
Speaker 1: We're going to be going to the mattress's Genie talk
Speaker 1: about the hot as Rick Davis puts it. Mike Lawler,
Speaker 1: the congressman from New York, who was not happy about
Speaker 1: this process and is obviously concerned about a difficult reelection.
Speaker 1: He joined us on Balance of Power last evening on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV, and I asked him about Patrick McHenry's slamming
Speaker 1: of the gavel, which to me might be the enduring
Speaker 1: image of yesterday. I mean, he put his back into
Speaker 1: what I thought the gavel was going to break at
Speaker 1: the end of the session, and Mike Lawler suggested that
Speaker 1: he might have taken it a step further. If you're
Speaker 1: with us on YouTube, look at that. My god, I'd
Speaker 1: have to see a chiropractor after that. Here's Lawler.
Speaker 15: The only thing that I would have done differently is
Speaker 15: flung it in the direction of one person. Look, he
Speaker 15: absolutely epitomized the frustrations of the conference and the American people.
Speaker 15: This is not what they elected us to do, to squabble,
Speaker 15: to fight amongst ourselves. They elected us to govern and
Speaker 15: we need to get Oh yeah, I would have hit
Speaker 15: him square between the eyes.
Speaker 1: I would have hit him square between the eyes. We
Speaker 1: talk about the cage match with Elon and Zuckerberg, Genie,
Speaker 1: I mean Rick mentions a therapist. How about a fight club.
Speaker 1: Where do we get the anger out here?
Speaker 11: I don't know, but you know, Lawler is a really,
Speaker 11: really interesting figure. He is from a Biden district. Of course,
Speaker 11: he's worried about his own re election bid, and he
Speaker 11: has been a voice of reason because from his perspective
Speaker 11: and the perspective of most Republicans who want to win
Speaker 11: and govern, this is the height of insanity. You know,
Speaker 11: You've got a president with very low approval ratings and
Speaker 11: what are you doing. You are showing that you cannot
Speaker 11: be trusted with one third of the government to govern.
Speaker 11: And so all Joe Biden has to sit back to
Speaker 11: do is sit back and watch this chaos play out.
Speaker 11: You know, people talk about Joe Biden's age, but when
Speaker 11: you're looking at twenty twenty four and you are sitting
Speaker 11: in a suburban district or you are trying to attract
Speaker 11: independence and moderates and women, old is probably better than crazy.
Speaker 11: And this has been crazy crazy. So for Lawler, he
Speaker 11: knows where this is headed, and he has every right
Speaker 11: to be frustrated. And I'm not recommending he engage in violence,
Speaker 11: but I wish you had been on with him later
Speaker 11: to ask him what he thinks about McHenry throwing this
Speaker 11: former speaker out of her office while she is attending
Speaker 11: the yeah for a senator. So you know, I'm not
Speaker 11: sure that's what the American people elected them to do either. Petty, petty,
Speaker 11: petty and crazy crazy crazy seems to rule to day.
Speaker 1: I'm glad that you mentioned, by the way, the line
Speaker 1: of the hour so far, Jeanie Shanzano, old is better
Speaker 1: than crazy. I think we can put that on a
Speaker 1: bumper sticker, Rick, But talk to me about the eviction.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned this, Genie. The first move from
Speaker 1: the acting speaker is to throw Nancy Pelosi out of
Speaker 1: the so called hideaway. This is not her actual office,
Speaker 1: but the hideaway, you know, prize real estate in the Capitol.
Speaker 1: And Stenny Hoyer got booted as well. They're pulling the
Speaker 1: furniture out of there while Nancy Pelosi is at a
Speaker 1: funeral in California. Is that the right move?
Speaker 7: You want me to answer that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, honestly, right, maybe maybe internal politics say that is
Speaker 1: a good move.
Speaker 7: Now, I mean it was pretty random. Uh.
Speaker 10: And and look, I mean this shows you just the
Speaker 10: level of anger and uh that exists inside the Republican Caucus.
Speaker 10: I mean, you know, McHenry was upset that his friend
Speaker 10: Kevin McCarthy had been just posed, and and and and
Speaker 10: Nancy Pelosi was piling on saying no way would she
Speaker 10: ever allow the caucus to vote for this guy.
Speaker 7: To some degree was the bet he made.
Speaker 10: Himself, Kevin McCarthy, because he basically gave the message to
Speaker 10: the Democrats that he didn't want their support.
Speaker 7: So, I mean, it was a confusing day.
Speaker 10: But the idea that you react to that by turning
Speaker 10: on the Democrats and kicking Nancy Pelosi out, you know,
Speaker 10: it's just a bad precedent. Uh. Former speakers have always
Speaker 10: been afforded to hideaway. It's part of the gentilneus genteelness
Speaker 10: of the House of Representatives. You don't want to see
Speaker 10: that go away just because people are angry. I think
Speaker 10: everybody needs to just calm down. And I'm glad Speaker
Speaker 10: pro Tem McHenry actually told people to go home because
Speaker 10: the last thing we want is any more of that
Speaker 10: kind of thing happening today.
Speaker 1: And well, I guess there's something to be said for it, though, Genie,
Speaker 1: I have to admit, look at what happened to Liz
Speaker 1: Cheney and Kevin McCarthy had a lot to do with that.
Speaker 1: Thrown out of the House, thrown out of the Republican family,
Speaker 1: and lost her job over it. Are we in a
Speaker 1: world in which Liz Cheney is punished more severely for
Speaker 1: what she did to stand up for the Constitution effectively
Speaker 1: than Matt Gates is for what happened yesterday.
Speaker 11: We certainly are. I mean, I don't think we see
Speaker 11: any inkling at this point that Matt Gates will lose
Speaker 11: his seat over what he has done. He may be
Speaker 11: expelled from the conference. I don't see how they let
Speaker 11: him into those conference meetings. Then he goes out and
Speaker 11: he reveals all their secrets. So I do think it
Speaker 11: is very possible that this is the moment that we
Speaker 11: are in. And I think that is such an important point, Joe,
Speaker 11: because what are we seeing. We are seeing populism run
Speaker 11: amok in the Republican Party. It is run by the
Speaker 11: Maga wing. And you know Jim Jordan saying to you
Speaker 11: two days ago he doesn't want the job. Now he's
Speaker 11: going forward. If he gets this job. It is another
Speaker 11: nail in that coffin where MAGA is controlling this party,
Speaker 11: and that is a problem. We've seen Mitt Romney leeve,
Speaker 11: We've seen Liz Cheney leave, Mike Pence making really important
Speaker 11: speeches against it has gotten no traction. And Matt Gates
Speaker 11: is ruling this caucus even though it is against the
Speaker 11: interests and the votes of ninety six percent of his
Speaker 11: fellow party members. This is a very very dangerous moment
Speaker 11: for the Republican Party, and because they have the majority
Speaker 11: for all of us, and again it stretches around the
Speaker 11: world to Ukraine, and that is the most troubling aspect
Speaker 11: of all of this.
Speaker 1: Something to think about. Rick Janey was kicked out of
Speaker 1: the leadership and eventually lost her job. What will happen
Speaker 1: to Matt Gates.
Speaker 7: You know, it's hard to tell.
Speaker 10: I mean, I believe Kevin McCarthy when he throws down
Speaker 10: the gauntlet that the Ethics Committee is working on this,
Speaker 10: But there is an investigation by the Ethics Committee into
Speaker 10: mac Gates, and I suspect they're all the members of
Speaker 10: that group are all under a lot of pressure to,
Speaker 10: you know, get their job done. I would say all
Speaker 10: of this may be mood a year from now, like
Speaker 10: the next Speaker may have another very short tenure because
Speaker 10: at the rate they're going, the Republicans in Congress are
Speaker 10: going to convince the American people that they are crazy
Speaker 10: and that nothing gets done on their watch, and that
Speaker 10: they will be cast out like any good electorate would
Speaker 10: do to a bunch of cowboys like this. And we
Speaker 10: don't have to worry about Jim Jordan being Speaker anymore,
Speaker 10: or Steven Scalize or anybody else, because it'll be a
Speaker 10: dark day and you know, Washington before Republicans can claim
Speaker 10: leadership of the House of Representatives by this kind of Conduct's.
Speaker 1: Genie, right, Rick is old better than crazy.
Speaker 7: I'd rather have a better set of choices.
Speaker 10: You know, nobody loves crazy, no matter what age you're at.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess that's right, man. This is why we
Speaker 1: have Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno. Rick and Jeannie. I'm
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: Here we are already with Kaylee Lines in Washington. Nice
Speaker 1: to see you, as always, Welcome back to the Capitol.
Speaker 1: You picked the perfect time to join us here. I
Speaker 1: know you were up covering the trial in New York yesterday.
Speaker 1: Not the Trump trial, we have to be specific about
Speaker 1: this going down, but the Sam Bankman freed trial each other, Yeah,
Speaker 1: which we'll have an opportunity to talk a lot more about.
Speaker 1: But we needed you back here. This has been a
Speaker 1: wild twenty four hours, wild seventy two hours. I guess
Speaker 1: we thought that the government was going to shut down
Speaker 1: a couple of days ago.
Speaker 12: Yeah, and wild seems like it's almost under selling it.
Speaker 12: Probably chaotic, yes, right, tumultuous, vitriolic could think of a
Speaker 12: few other descriptors. But yeah, that's where we are, Joe.
Speaker 1: Two grown men want this job. They want to go there.
Speaker 1: Steve Scalise, whose name has floated every time you have
Speaker 1: this conversation, a majority leader. He's been in Republican leadership
Speaker 1: for a long time, but he's being treated for cancers,
Speaker 1: going through chemotherapy at the same time as Speaker's race
Speaker 1: is happening. I don't know how you do that. Then again,
Speaker 1: we've seen him recover from a gunshot wound. And then
Speaker 1: there's Jim Jordan, the Chairman of the Judiciary, who we
Speaker 1: thought didn't want that job.
Speaker 12: Isn't that what he told you?
Speaker 1: Well, that's true, Anne, Marie and I talked to the
Speaker 1: chairman two days ago. This was Monday, when everyone was
Speaker 1: celebrating the government not closing.
Speaker 12: Before the motion to vacate even had been That's correct.
Speaker 9: You're on a lot of short lists.
Speaker 1: You went through this at the beginning of the year
Speaker 1: when it was a fight for speaker.
Speaker 9: Of course, Kevin McCarthy survived. I believe it was fifteen rounds.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but as long as you're on these short lists,
Speaker 1: would you stand to be speaker if you don't want to?
Speaker 8: I don't want to be speaker. I want I want
Speaker 8: Kevin McCarthy to be speaker. I want to focus on
Speaker 8: the job.
Speaker 9: And if you were asked to serve your country in
Speaker 9: that role.
Speaker 8: Well, I want to focus on the job I have.
Speaker 8: I think I'm serving the folks in the fourth this
Speaker 8: reg of Ohio.
Speaker 1: That's my main I don't want to be speaker, and
Speaker 1: I guess that's what you say, though, when Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 1: still has the job, they were allied. Did he know
Speaker 1: he was going to do this in just two days.
Speaker 1: There's no way we'll know that.
Speaker 12: But you wonder, well, maybe he was hoping he wouldn't
Speaker 12: be in a position where he could.
Speaker 1: Everybody was gaming this.
Speaker 12: Everything's conditional, right, Joe, I don't want to be speaker,
Speaker 12: right if Kevin McCarthy is. If Kevin McCarthy is not speaker,
Speaker 12: maybe you answer that question differently. Clearly, he is considering.
Speaker 12: He is now in this race.
Speaker 1: So we've got a week. I guess candidates will present
Speaker 1: their positions next Tuesday. To Patrick McHenry.
Speaker 12: YEP votes begin Wednesday.
Speaker 1: Votes begin Wednesday, and boy, it's anyone's guest, I asked,
Speaker 1: as french Hill the Congressman from Arkansas earlier if coalescing
Speaker 1: around a candidate might prevent another fifteen rounds. And that's
Speaker 1: their hope right now, is that what happens in the
Speaker 1: next week makes this nice and clean on the floor
Speaker 1: next Wednesday. But then there's reality.
Speaker 12: Well, and there's the consideration that a lot of members
Speaker 12: of Congress are going home if they haven't already. So
Speaker 12: what are they going to be doing between now and
Speaker 12: next week when they have to come back to vote?
Speaker 12: And you know, there was a meeting with the Texas
Speaker 12: Republican delegation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, now you were down there for that. What'd you
Speaker 1: get out of there? Anything? Did they run past you?
Speaker 12: Well, all of the Texas delegates have representatives have decided
Speaker 12: not at this time to say who they are supporting
Speaker 12: for speaker. They agreed to that as a group. So
Speaker 12: none of them were answering that question in the hallway.
Speaker 12: But it was interesting. Congressman Michael McCall said that not
Speaker 12: only Scalice and Jordan said that they were running that.
Speaker 12: Kevin Hearn, the Congressman, told them that he was going
Speaker 12: to get in there too.
Speaker 1: Well, that's news.
Speaker 12: We haven't actually gotten the letter to college.
Speaker 1: It's not official official, but that's coming.
Speaker 12: Apparently that's what was suggested, but really no real sign.
Speaker 12: And I was speaking with Congressman Pete Sessions, of course
Speaker 12: of Texas, and I said, as any of them, are
Speaker 12: any of them going to be able to get two
Speaker 12: hundred and eighteen votes? And he just looked me dead
Speaker 12: in the eye and said, well, that's the question, isn't it.
Speaker 1: That's why I still say I don't know. They would
Speaker 1: be remarkable. After a round after out of that's not happening.
Speaker 1: This guy named Kevin stands up this drafted they pull
Speaker 1: me back in. I don't know, Terry Haynes, maybe I'm dreaming.
Speaker 1: We were talking about this on the radio this morning.
Speaker 1: Everybody says what they mean until they don't mean it anymore.
Speaker 1: Are we actually ruling out I know he says he's
Speaker 1: not going to run, but are we ruling out Kevin
Speaker 1: McCarthy in a world in which no one else can
Speaker 1: get to to eighteen?
Speaker 16: Good afternoon to both of you. I'm glad Kayley's been
Speaker 16: sprung from purgatory here and he was back in Washington
Speaker 16: meetso particularly you know two things.
Speaker 14: Thing.
Speaker 16: I'll get to Henry in a second, but you know
Speaker 16: they're gonna run because it's a loose analog to like
Speaker 16: running for president, right, they're people that are actually credible
Speaker 16: presidential candidates. There are people that want stuff, There are
Speaker 16: people that want to be cabinet secretaries, and you know,
Speaker 16: so people get in for all kinds of reasons. And
Speaker 16: so you know, you know why Scalisee is in. I mean, Jordan,
Speaker 16: I don't know, you know, I mean, I don't think
Speaker 16: he can get there, but but you know he can.
Speaker 16: He can get some stuff out of Scalisee or somebody
Speaker 16: else or whoever's running. So you know, they're all jockeying
Speaker 16: in that sort of way. Now, you know McHenry is
Speaker 16: you and I talked this morning on daybreak. I think
Speaker 16: McHenry is a real dark horse here. There are not
Speaker 16: a lot of people who are trusted by both sides,
Speaker 16: and he's got a he's got a real facility for
Speaker 16: being able to listen and come up with good compromises.
Speaker 16: He was McCarthy's lieutenant in the whole debt ceiling fight,
Speaker 16: and you know he has the ability here and may
Speaker 16: end up being the reluctant guy. So you know, we
Speaker 16: had a ways to go.
Speaker 12: Well, well, and Terry. Congressman Garrett Graves, who of course
Speaker 12: is very close, was very close to McCarthy and along
Speaker 12: with mckenry, was one of those key players in the
Speaker 12: dead Sealing talk. Suggested to Bloomberg reporters earlier that mc
Speaker 12: henry might be needing to stay in that seat through
Speaker 12: November seventeenth, when that Continuing Resolution expires and we could
Speaker 12: potentially be staring down the barrel of another government shutdown.
Speaker 12: Does all of this just make that pretty much a
Speaker 12: guarantee at this point.
Speaker 16: I wouldn't say it's a guarantee there is, but I
Speaker 16: see the logic, and mister Graves is a very savvy guy.
Speaker 16: The thing is with the speakership is that and I say,
Speaker 16: this is somebody that was involved in the continuity of
Speaker 16: government plans twenty years ago and helped to set up
Speaker 16: the system that we're now seeing. The temporary speaker existed,
Speaker 16: you know, in case a bomb dropped on the Capitol,
Speaker 16: or you know, there was you know, something else happened.
Speaker 16: It wasn't really envisioned for situations like this, but what
Speaker 16: it was envisioned to be was a it was a
Speaker 16: temporary stopgap for as short a period of time as possible.
Speaker 16: So you know, the onus has been in the Parliamentarians.
Speaker 16: I think we'll tell the Republicans that. So the onus
Speaker 16: is really on the Republicans to come up with a
Speaker 16: with a real candidate that can get to two eighteen
Speaker 16: as too, as soon as possible. And that's reflected in
Speaker 16: McHenry's own time frame where he wants a He wants
Speaker 16: to vote next Wednesday. Now all that said, you know
Speaker 16: there might be a number of different candidates. McHenry may
Speaker 16: want to be out out like not really do it,
Speaker 16: and he really doesn't want to do it. So we're
Speaker 16: in a situation, I think where where there could be
Speaker 16: a prolonged period of time and if it and if
Speaker 16: something doesn't happen within a week or two, at the
Speaker 16: very outside, for stability purposes alone, you need somebody to
Speaker 16: be in that seat. So it may end up being
Speaker 16: McHenry through the November seventeenth.
Speaker 1: Yes, fascinating. It's because you were a part of crafting
Speaker 1: that continuity of government plan. That's in part why we
Speaker 1: wanted to talk to you today, Terry. I just wonder
Speaker 1: how much wiggle room there is in the powers of
Speaker 1: this acting Speaker, this protempt speaker, particularly if this becomes
Speaker 1: protracted as we consider the idea of a possible shutdown,
Speaker 1: could there be an agreement between an acting speaker and
Speaker 1: the Conference that would allow him to have more powers
Speaker 1: to introduce legislation dectually act as a speaker.
Speaker 16: I don't think the theoretically, yes, Joe. In reality, I
Speaker 16: think that is almost impossible. The Speaker's powers are what
Speaker 16: they are, including constitutional You know, the only the Speaker
Speaker 16: of the House is the only constitutional officer in the
Speaker 16: House and represents the entire House, so you've got that,
Speaker 16: But you know they're not going to be in as
Speaker 16: long as the speaker is the temporary speaker. The speaker
Speaker 16: pro temporary formally is in that position. You know that
Speaker 16: person has many of the powers of the speaker, but
Speaker 16: due to his now his temporary status, he doesn't really
Speaker 16: have the ability to compel much of anything. So I
Speaker 16: think I think McHenry starts from a pretty weak position
Speaker 16: and would find it difficult to impossible to build out
Speaker 16: strengths as you suggest in order to in order to
Speaker 16: expedite the work of the House. Not impossible, but I
Speaker 16: think right now it's unlikely.
Speaker 12: So on the subject of the work of the House
Speaker 12: and when it realistically is going to be able to
Speaker 12: get done, knowing we are up against that November seventeenth deadline,
Speaker 12: Congressman Michael McCall, who, as I was mentioning to Joe
Speaker 12: we caught up with in the hallway earlier, said he's
Speaker 12: pretty worried about a shutdown, that this whole thing is
Speaker 12: just going to get a lot harder now that Kevin
Speaker 12: McCarthy is gone. Where do you put the probability of
Speaker 12: a shutdown come November seventeenth.
Speaker 16: Terry, I was, as both of you know, I was
Speaker 16: early two months early in telling people that a shut
Speaker 16: down with seventy percent likely, way before most people got there,
Speaker 16: you know, the moment that McCarthy was vacated out of
Speaker 16: his position, I told markets, I thought the shutdown likelihood
Speaker 16: was eighty percent. The difficulty to me is, i'd say ministerial,
Speaker 16: and I've said that, I've said that before, but is
Speaker 16: you know, the House is not really going to It's
Speaker 16: not going to be able to do its work as quickly.
Speaker 16: They're going to find difficulties getting to the floor. Technically
Speaker 16: they can get to the floor and pass rules to
Speaker 16: put things together and all the rest, but they're going
Speaker 16: to be in a practical sense, they're going to be
Speaker 16: hamstrung by not having a speaker there. It's going to
Speaker 16: make it that much more difficult to referee disputes and
Speaker 16: get things to the floor and be successful on the floor.
Speaker 16: So so you know, I think this this puts a
Speaker 16: new weight W E I G H T on the
Speaker 16: House's ability to do its business, and that alone, I
Speaker 16: think justifies a ramped up and more negative look at it.
Speaker 12: Also probably a wait, W A I T if this
Speaker 12: is going to take a while for them.
Speaker 1: To be able to do these guys, you guys work
Speaker 1: that out in advanced very mode. We're very The headline,
Speaker 1: I know you're amazing. The headline on your client note.
Speaker 1: Yesterday this went out at five in the afternoon. Everyone's waiting,
Speaker 1: what does Terry you think about this house speaker? Ouster
Speaker 1: markets negative market c Washington incompetent to govern? Terry? Does
Speaker 1: this ensure a downgrade from Moody's.
Speaker 16: I don't think insure as I think my gut is
Speaker 16: they'd probably wait until November seventeenth. The way they put it,
Speaker 16: the way Moodies put it out there was that they
Speaker 16: saw downgrade possibility should there be a shutdown. So assuming
Speaker 16: they think the same, and I have no reason to
Speaker 16: know what they think right now, but assuming they think
Speaker 16: the same, well then you know, should there be a shutdown,
Speaker 16: then uh then you know, I think that's probably likely
Speaker 16: er than not. Yeah, I mean, because they've already telegraphed
Speaker 16: that very short, very shortly. I mean, you know what
Speaker 16: I've said all along is that you know, it's it's
Speaker 16: this is kind of interesting Washington small ball, but what
Speaker 16: markets see is very different. What markets are already spooked
Speaker 16: by is out of control fiscal Uh no, no sense
Speaker 16: of when there when the Washington's going to deal with
Speaker 16: debt and deficit. And now you know that that's ramped
Speaker 16: up even more and uh, you know, so that's a danger.
Speaker 16: And compounded with that is is the idea that you know,
Speaker 16: I mean, French hill Aside and who's a very astute
Speaker 16: guy and gets it. Somebody like French Aside though uh,
Speaker 16: Washington's oblivious to everything that I just said, get it
Speaker 16: at all. And and you know, the John Farah was
Speaker 16: asking me yesterday about something that French said to surveillance,
Speaker 16: which was you know that the you know, kind of
Speaker 16: the right to be I think the right to be
Speaker 16: reckless or you know, had gone. And you know, did
Speaker 16: I think that was the case? And I said absolutely,
Speaker 16: you know, but Washington has, you know, for a generation,
Speaker 16: lived in this world where they can deal you know,
Speaker 16: they can deal with fiscal things kind of recklessly because
Speaker 16: there's no consequence well you know, coming down the pike,
Speaker 16: our potential real consequences, and those consequences are being stoked
Speaker 16: by what they're doing right now.
Speaker 12: Well, Terry, speaking of what's happening right now, I want
Speaker 12: to get your take on a headline that just crossed
Speaker 12: the bloomberg. The minority leader in the Senate, Senator Mitch
Speaker 12: McConnell is speaking to reporters and he said the next
Speaker 12: speaker needs to ditch the motion to vacate. There's been
Speaker 12: a lot of talk in the last twenty four hours
Speaker 12: about maybe needing to change this rule where any one
Speaker 12: individual can trigger this. Do you think there's a real
Speaker 12: probability of that happening or could we be, say a
Speaker 12: couple of months from now, talking about ousting another speaker,
Speaker 12: whoever that may be.
Speaker 16: I think in the I think in the next congress, uh,
Speaker 16: dealing with that differently is likely. I think in this congress,
Speaker 16: it's very unlikely. In this situation, it's very unlikely. And
Speaker 16: the reason is it really comes down to hubris.
Speaker 13: Uh.
Speaker 16: You know, the Gates faction.
Speaker 11: Uh.
Speaker 16: You know, it has a lot of hubris going right now.
Speaker 16: And I'll look forward to the five o'clock interview and
Speaker 16: watch that very closely.
Speaker 14: But the.
Speaker 16: But you know, I know you're waiting for it too, Joe,
Speaker 16: But the uh, the situation is, I keep going, I
Speaker 16: keep thinking about how Anne Marie is going to handle this.
Speaker 16: I know how you're going to handle it. But it's
Speaker 16: like you know, and real dig right and as you will.
Speaker 12: Different the best tease of all time.
Speaker 16: You know, I'm very much looking forward to seeing it.
Speaker 16: But the uh and see how he justifies himself this time.
Speaker 16: But you know, the hubris at this point will be
Speaker 16: such that, you know, any news speaker won't have any
Speaker 16: more rope than the old speaker did. And for a
Speaker 16: couple of reasons. One is they feel, like you know,
Speaker 16: that maximizes their leverage. And secondly, to the extent that
Speaker 16: this is personal between Gates and McCarthy and my moone
Speaker 16: of you is that it is what you get is
Speaker 16: a situation where they back off and all the same
Speaker 16: they back off the single vote nakate, then it looks
Speaker 16: like it actually was. It's an additional additional proof.
Speaker 1: Terry Haynes. Email me your questions from Matt Gates from
Speaker 1: Pangaea Policy. Terry Haynes on Bloomberg you're listening to The
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Speaker 1: Just say play Bloomberg eleven. As we feel our way
Speaker 1: through the woods here, uncharted territory is what I keep hearing,
Speaker 1: and I'd say that's fair. After all, it was the
Speaker 1: first time in history a speaker of the House was ousted.
Speaker 1: Kaylee lyons, we've got one week to figure out potentially
Speaker 1: who the next speaker is, or at least what the
Speaker 1: field looks like. Maybe that's a better way to put it,
Speaker 1: having gone through what we did in January with fifteen rounds,
Speaker 1: remembering people can be drafted or nominated right there on
Speaker 1: the floor. That's how Donald Trump got in the mix
Speaker 1: last time.
Speaker 12: It's very true. And I do have that question about
Speaker 12: Kevin McCarthy because he said he's not going to run.
Speaker 12: That's right, But could that mean that people still nominate
Speaker 12: him even if he's not, like Jim Jordan and Steve's
Speaker 12: glee saying I'm actively running for this. I'm going to
Speaker 12: pursue it. They could just you know, it's like a shove.
Speaker 1: I threw this up in the air earlier today. It
Speaker 1: was it was batted down. But I'm glad that you're
Speaker 1: open to this idea because if we go through, you know,
Speaker 1: fifteen ballots, nobody can get to two eight. And Kevin's
Speaker 1: sitting back there. I know he said this.
Speaker 4: Will not run for speaker again. I'll have the conference
Speaker 4: pick somebody else.
Speaker 1: But imagine the cameras zooming in on him watching all
Speaker 1: of this, the sentimental music starts playing, somebody nominates him.
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's entirely possible, isn't it.
Speaker 12: But could even he get to eighteen if there's eight.
Speaker 1: Who votes, Well, there's a fair point. Maybe no one can.
Speaker 1: We'll just operates a.
Speaker 12: Very real probability.
Speaker 1: Can we do that for a while? Lester Munson is
Speaker 1: with us now, of course, co head of the international
Speaker 1: practice at BGR Group, but it's spent quite a bit
Speaker 1: of time on Capitol Hill, in both the House and
Speaker 1: the Senate. Lester, it's good to have you talk us
Speaker 1: off the ledge here. Kevin McCarthy says he's not going
Speaker 1: to run. Do we have our field? Is this going
Speaker 1: to be Jim Jordan versus Steve Scalise?
Speaker 17: It seems like it's Jordan versus Scales to me. But
Speaker 17: what if they can't get to the requisite number of votes?
Speaker 17: That opens it back up. I don't think you can
Speaker 17: really rule out any thing at this point. I don't
Speaker 17: know if that keeps you on the ledge or gets
Speaker 17: you off the ledge, but I think we're in for
Speaker 17: a lot of chaos in the near future.
Speaker 12: Well, Lester, as we talk about the requisite number of votes,
Speaker 12: is anyone who can get support of some of these hardliners,
Speaker 12: some of which Austin McCarthy, even those that didn't vote
Speaker 12: to oust him still had voiced a lot of disappointment
Speaker 12: with him in not advancing the conservative policies that they wanted.
Speaker 12: Can you get those people and also get the moderates?
Speaker 12: Is this even really, really possible.
Speaker 17: You know, I think some of this stuff is so
Speaker 17: personal and so idiosyncratic, going member my member, they almost
Speaker 17: have each one has different reasons for doing what they're doing,
Speaker 17: and so can Scalice be the person who rises above
Speaker 17: all of that stuff and get enough support from the
Speaker 17: Republican Conference to become speaker? Maybe can Jordan do it?
Speaker 17: I do think it's less likely Jordan can do it,
Speaker 17: but I wouldn't rule it out.
Speaker 2: This.
Speaker 17: You know, Kevin McCarthy did some amazing stuff in just
Speaker 17: the few months he was speaker, a lot of things
Speaker 17: people didn't think he could do, but we all kind
Speaker 17: of knew that he was going to this judgment day
Speaker 17: was coming based on the number of people who were
Speaker 17: skeptical of his speakership and how thin a majority he
Speaker 17: had at the end of the day. The reason Republicans
Speaker 17: are in this position is because they have such a
Speaker 17: small majority. If that doesn't change this, this is just
Speaker 17: going to keep ongoing.
Speaker 1: The closer you get to the sun here, though, when
Speaker 1: it comes to allies of Kevin McCarthy, the more problematic
Speaker 1: this could be next week, right, I mean, Steve Scalise
Speaker 1: is not too many shades away from Kevin McCarthy when
Speaker 1: it comes to policy, and he's certainly been an avid
Speaker 1: supporter or was of Kevin McCarthy as speaker. So if
Speaker 1: you're a Matt Gates, are one of these ten Republicans
Speaker 1: who didn't like McCarthy, would you like Scalise?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 17: I think I think Gates has specifically said he would
Speaker 17: he would think favorably about scalise candidacy. But but does
Speaker 17: that matter to the other voices or are there other
Speaker 17: voices within the conference that that don't like Congressman Scalise.
Speaker 17: There it just takes five really to oppose the nominee
Speaker 17: for that nominee to not become speaker, and then we're
Speaker 17: back where we were in January, where no one member
Speaker 17: can get a majority of the votes of those who
Speaker 17: are present on the floor at that time, and so
Speaker 17: we're going to all be going back to doing math.
Speaker 17: So who can who can get you know, the Republican
Speaker 17: Conference enough enough of those votes only lose two or
Speaker 17: three votes and get to be speaker. I don't think
Speaker 17: we know yet, and it's it's not it may take
Speaker 17: a few a few turns, you know, times around the
Speaker 17: block to figure out who's going to prevail. Here, this
Speaker 17: this could drag on for a few days.
Speaker 12: Well, we've seen it drag on for a few days
Speaker 12: back in January when it was Speaker McCarthy trying to
Speaker 12: get this done. It took four days, fifteen rounds, as
Speaker 12: we all know quite well. And no knowing that this
Speaker 12: fight is going to go down within just weeks of
Speaker 12: November seventeenth, when government funding is going to expire, Lester,
Speaker 12: is the House going to be so focused on its
Speaker 12: own internal dynamics that the regular business just does not
Speaker 12: get done.
Speaker 17: Well, like, yeah, for a long time. Yeah, Because because
Speaker 17: you can't do anything on the floor until you have
Speaker 17: an elected speaker. So the demands of the kind of
Speaker 17: the chaos caucus here, which is we want votes on
Speaker 17: the individual appropriation spills, which by the way, is kind
Speaker 17: of a sensible thing. Strangely, you can't do that until
Speaker 17: you have a speaker. So the longer time they spend
Speaker 17: on picking a speaker, the less time they have to
Speaker 17: do the things they say they want to do on
Speaker 17: the floor before we run into the time limit on
Speaker 17: the currency area and the other kind of tick and
Speaker 17: time bomb here is ad Ukraine. At a certain point,
Speaker 17: we're we're going to see a date emerge where we
Speaker 17: really where Congress is really going to need to act
Speaker 17: or to keep that pipe line of assistance going to
Speaker 17: Ukraine to sustain the effort against Russia. And so there's
Speaker 17: there are multiple complicating factors here, and the more time
Speaker 17: they spend on selecting the speaker, the harder those other
Speaker 17: things are going to become.
Speaker 1: We're going to be spending some time with Congressman Matt
Speaker 1: Gats a little bit later on today, Lester, what would
Speaker 1: you ask him?
Speaker 17: Well, I think I think you might want to ask him,
Speaker 17: how does he is he willing to compromise on any
Speaker 17: of his issues in order to get done the things
Speaker 17: he wants to get done? In other words, at a
Speaker 17: certain point, don't you have to trade? Don't you have
Speaker 17: to go for the good, good solution rather than the
Speaker 17: perfect solution. Are you willing to support a candidate for
Speaker 17: speaker who will do the things that you say you
Speaker 17: want to have done, even if you don't agree with
Speaker 17: that person on every single thing? Like, is there any
Speaker 17: compromising you at all on these issues? Because if you
Speaker 17: keep insisting on the one thing, you're not going to
Speaker 17: get the other thing. So at what point does that
Speaker 17: are you willing to compromise to balance out the things
Speaker 17: that you're asking for.
Speaker 12: I look forward to seeing how he answers that question. Lester.
Speaker 12: Just finally, because if you're watching on YouTube, you see
Speaker 12: Lester has a Chicago Bears pillow in the background. Lester,
Speaker 12: I'm a Broncos fan, good and I think last weekend
Speaker 12: maybe the only game we will win this season potentially.
Speaker 12: But he did beat you, guys. I'm very sorry for
Speaker 12: your loss.
Speaker 17: It's hard to be a Bears fan today. It's also
Speaker 17: hard to be a Republican these days. But you know
Speaker 17: we will. We will soldier on.
Speaker 1: Only Lester could get out of that so smoothly, Lester
Speaker 1: Munson with apologies, Kayley Lines, well done. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 1: in Washington. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.
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