WEBVTT - Mattel President Sees Cross-Generational Growth

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Clovel News than keeping a watch on

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<v Speaker 1>Mattel shares, by the way, or up about since a

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<v Speaker 1>recent low last October, They're up six percent year to date.

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<v Speaker 1>We've often checked in with the company CEO, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>got another key member of the c suite. Our next guest,

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<v Speaker 1>who we last caught up with about a year ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Great to have back with us at the president CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of Mattel, Richard Dixon. He's here in our Bloomberg Interactive

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<v Speaker 1>Broker studio. How are you. I'm well, Thank you for

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<v Speaker 1>having me. It's good to see in person. And be

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<v Speaker 1>here with everybody in person. It feels like it feels

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<v Speaker 1>like a little bit more normal. It's definitely more normal,

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<v Speaker 1>but out of out but the world not so normal

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<v Speaker 1>for sure. Well, it's a new normal because it's changing

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<v Speaker 1>every every every day. So talk to us about this

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<v Speaker 1>new normal, Like, what is it in terms of running

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<v Speaker 1>a company in this environment where things feel like they

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<v Speaker 1>keep coming at us from all different angles. And maybe

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<v Speaker 1>just as we start to feel like supply chains so

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<v Speaker 1>important to you guys start to ease, you know, then

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<v Speaker 1>they get kind of upended again. So what's this like? Well, look,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're all dealing with lots of changes, both cultural,

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<v Speaker 1>systemic political. You know, we're living in a day and

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<v Speaker 1>age where nothing is the same. There is a degree

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<v Speaker 1>of excitement around it as well. When you're running a company,

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<v Speaker 1>the pivots, the flexibility, the degree of speed and which

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<v Speaker 1>we need to move and make decisions, Particularly for a

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<v Speaker 1>company like Mattel, which is this storied, legendary toy company.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got, you know, an unbelievable portfolio of legendary brands that,

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<v Speaker 1>as we look at them today, are probably one of

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<v Speaker 1>the most you know, pop culture relevant conversations that are

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<v Speaker 1>happening in the world, particularly in toys, but as we

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<v Speaker 1>extend our brand into entertainment and content digital gaming, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been a really exciting time for these storied brands to

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<v Speaker 1>become part of the pop culture conversation. And f t

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<v Speaker 1>s and f t s are another part of our dynamically,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, growing business and and most importantly, I think

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<v Speaker 1>as you as you think about it today, purpose really

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<v Speaker 1>does matter. You know, you hear a lot about that.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, that walked into the office of today and

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<v Speaker 1>you have a big, you know, display of the purpose

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg. And I think in terms of toys and

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<v Speaker 1>what they represent people's lives, um unlocky imaginations, cognitive, social

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<v Speaker 1>emotional development, creating relationships with parents through toys. It's a

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<v Speaker 1>really important part of development that we feel a great

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<v Speaker 1>degree of responsibility for it. This time, we've gotten to

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<v Speaker 1>talk a lot with the non crisis CEO of Mantel

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<v Speaker 1>over the last year or so eighteen months to understand

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<v Speaker 1>the changes that you guys have had to make when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to supply chain and making sure that you

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<v Speaker 1>are able to deliver on those experiences and on those

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<v Speaker 1>toys throughout the year. I know that you're doubling employment

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<v Speaker 1>in Mexico right now, and I'm wondering if if you

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<v Speaker 1>have start, if you've actually opened the plant there. If

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<v Speaker 1>you have, m are considering making other moves to Mexico

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<v Speaker 1>to help e supply chain challenges right now, So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's a great question. And I think part of

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<v Speaker 1>the strong performance of our supply chain this year is

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<v Speaker 1>attributable to our scale, our expertise, and our flexible model.

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<v Speaker 1>We've spent the last several years through a capital light

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<v Speaker 1>program consolidating our footprint geographically. We've re oriented much of

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<v Speaker 1>our manufacturing footprint to be more flexible, and as you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>recently expanded our facilities in Mexico, um and for a

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<v Speaker 1>variety of reasons cost reduction, consolidation. Obviously, close to shore

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<v Speaker 1>helps with shipping and speed to market um and in general,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the supply chain for MATEL has been a

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<v Speaker 1>competitive advantage. You know, while the world is dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>incredible challenges both in supply chain issues inflation issues, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the performance that we've had in our supply chain

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<v Speaker 1>has really proven that it's a competitive advantage. From attel,

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<v Speaker 1>you guys were doing this prepad nemic, weren't you. We've

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<v Speaker 1>been working on this for several years. It's part of

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<v Speaker 1>a capital light model, that's correct. How much of though

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<v Speaker 1>the tensions the geopolitical this is one of the big

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<v Speaker 1>macro rethinks that we're having right now about we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>it certainly the energy market, I mean energy oil obviously

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<v Speaker 1>very important to plastics as we know. But how are

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<v Speaker 1>you rethinking about kind of where you're getting things because

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<v Speaker 1>you're like, you know what, geo politically, we can't say

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<v Speaker 1>globalization is going to cure all that helps us? How

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<v Speaker 1>much of that is also at play in this that

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<v Speaker 1>might make you do even more aggressive moves in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of protecting that supply chain. It's a really important part

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<v Speaker 1>of our strategic roadmap, and I think as you've seen

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<v Speaker 1>over the last several years, by example, you know, through

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<v Speaker 1>consolidation as well as geographically expanding our footprint, UM offsetting

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<v Speaker 1>if you will, any reliability on any particular market whatsoever,

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<v Speaker 1>and in fact, m opening up various different plants in

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<v Speaker 1>different countries for the same brand and gives us the flexibility,

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<v Speaker 1>the nimbleness that we need UM to accommodate and to

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<v Speaker 1>always keep the business moving despite political issues that may

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<v Speaker 1>be arising in local markets. It's proven incredibly effective, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>our performance in one We're in a quiet period currently,

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<v Speaker 1>but you can see the performance in large part due

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<v Speaker 1>to our our ability to effectively get product to consumers

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<v Speaker 1>and retailers on time. So if there's a problem somewhere,

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<v Speaker 1>it's very easy to say, Okay, plant number A, you've

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<v Speaker 1>got problems plant number eight, We're just gonna amp it up. Yeah. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't say it's that easy. Uh, but certainly it's

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<v Speaker 1>not easy. But we have incredible expertise that have been

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<v Speaker 1>with a company of a very long time and added

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<v Speaker 1>new talent as well, but strategically made a concerted effort

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<v Speaker 1>over the last several years. So you know, we didn't

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<v Speaker 1>have to react in real time because we were already

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<v Speaker 1>moving strategically. But did you say when that happened, You're like, man,

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<v Speaker 1>we're waiting ahead of the game, because we would have

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<v Speaker 1>had to do some shift. We we certainly felt confident

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<v Speaker 1>in our strategy and in the plans that we had

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<v Speaker 1>and executing bar none within the industry besting class, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that continues to be a strength of Mattel.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're building upon strength. Yeah, Richard, what about when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to rising commodities costs? This is something that

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<v Speaker 1>affects every company, whether you know, not just companies that

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<v Speaker 1>you know our airlines or oil companies. But the price

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<v Speaker 1>of of h W T I is up more than

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five pcent just this year. Tell uses a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of plastic you have to ship stuff. Uh. How does

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<v Speaker 1>that hit margins? Well? Look, uh, you know, cost factors

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<v Speaker 1>have been you know, a real issue in our business

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<v Speaker 1>and in every business for that matter. We've had a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years of significant inflation and we do this

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<v Speaker 1>year is different. This year is to hate to tell

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<v Speaker 1>you there's a lot of plastic and toys there are

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<v Speaker 1>working on that too. We've got a lot of sustainability

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<v Speaker 1>efforts in place. UM. But it looked through a combination

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<v Speaker 1>of pricing UH and cost savings. We expect to exceed

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<v Speaker 1>inflation over time UM and to higher prices or better

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing or lower There's not a silver bullet, right, So,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there there are pricing adjustments and strategies that

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<v Speaker 1>will take place across our portfolio, and there's also cost

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<v Speaker 1>savings as well that we've been also sharing and enjoying

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<v Speaker 1>as part of our structural simplification plans, the two combined,

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<v Speaker 1>if you will mitigate inflation to some degree and contribute

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<v Speaker 1>to the margin expansion that we have UH shared over time. UM. Granted,

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<v Speaker 1>we've we've spent a lot of time talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>impact of inflation and supply chain, but as you can

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<v Speaker 1>see from our results and from the guidance that we've given,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in a quiet period right now, but from our

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand on the side, again, as we take as

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<v Speaker 1>we take strategic price increases and look for cost savings.

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<v Speaker 1>The most important part of our consumer proposition is to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure our consumers really do love and get the

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<v Speaker 1>value and innovation that our toys provide. But you're confident

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<v Speaker 1>that the consumer can handle price increases, that the consumer

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<v Speaker 1>is willing to pay, that you have that pricing power

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<v Speaker 1>at Mattel to raise those prices. I believe that our

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<v Speaker 1>brands resonate with consumers around the world, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be UM the innovation and the brand

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<v Speaker 1>reputation and the quality that ultimately consumers judge UH and

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<v Speaker 1>and jury UH in the in the toy industry, and

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<v Speaker 1>certainly our brands stand the test of time. I also

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<v Speaker 1>think there's a reflection back on nostalgic brands. We have

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<v Speaker 1>brands that mom, dad grew up with and are enjoying

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<v Speaker 1>that relationship with their Alright, So I brought I brought

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<v Speaker 1>a little that I actually have had on my desk.

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<v Speaker 1>It's probably from one of either ian On or somebody

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<v Speaker 1>coming coming to visit. Um grew up with Barbie, loved it,

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<v Speaker 1>loved it. We're talking with Richard Dixon, he's president and

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<v Speaker 1>chief operating off a certain mantel here with Tim and myself. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>these are iconic brands. UM, and my kids played with him.

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<v Speaker 1>Are my daughter, I should say my one kid? Um?

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<v Speaker 1>And I certainly did. Where is the big growth? Because

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about you guys, I've talked with the folks

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<v Speaker 1>at w W E. I mean, you have these partnerships,

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<v Speaker 1>these alliances. You have older collectibles n F T s.

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<v Speaker 1>I assume play into the older collector of Mattel Brands,

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<v Speaker 1>content creation, Barbie movie, Like, when is that happening? Where's

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<v Speaker 1>the real growth going forward? And answer it all in

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<v Speaker 1>two minutes? Well, I think you have to stay, take

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<v Speaker 1>a step back and look at our our strategic roadmap,

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<v Speaker 1>which has really been to be an i P driven

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<v Speaker 1>high performing toy companies, very Disney esque. Well, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's very Mattel. You know. We we have a portfolio

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<v Speaker 1>of incredibly strong i P many of which as you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>and there are a lot of brands within our portfolio

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<v Speaker 1>that have you know, stood the test of time and

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<v Speaker 1>could be revitalized. Masters of the Universe is a great

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<v Speaker 1>example of that. A huge property in the eighties, ran

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<v Speaker 1>dormant for decades and we brought it back. No, I

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<v Speaker 1>didn't play with might might have missed my generation, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know, But anyway, it's back and it's it's arguably

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<v Speaker 1>better than ever. Um. But I think that the growth

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<v Speaker 1>strategy of Mattel is really to continue to expand our

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<v Speaker 1>i P into verticals, digital gaming content and f t

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<v Speaker 1>s as you mentioned. But is it the adult collector

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<v Speaker 1>that's the real like, where where's the growth come from?

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<v Speaker 1>It's both. It's it's literally across the board. If you

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<v Speaker 1>look at our performance, every category that we're in and

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<v Speaker 1>we're in seven categories, all grew. We grew market share

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<v Speaker 1>across the world. Our biggest most important franchise brands are

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<v Speaker 1>all in growth mode. Barbie Fisher price, Hot Wheels, American Girl, Thomas,

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<v Speaker 1>the Tank Engine, our games portfolio, you know, single largest

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<v Speaker 1>card game in the world. You know, we've done a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of work. We vital in our brands with the

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<v Speaker 1>Mattel Playbook that we take a lot of pride and innovation,

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<v Speaker 1>cultural relevance and executional excellence have been the forefront of

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<v Speaker 1>making our business successful. When you're thinking about communicating to

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<v Speaker 1>potential customers, the marketing of this, how big of a

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<v Speaker 1>play is nostalgia? I mean, I think about my dad

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<v Speaker 1>is probably more into Hot Wheels than my three year

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<v Speaker 1>old at this point, but he's yeah, he's been in

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<v Speaker 1>a Hot Wheels his whole life. So are you trying

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<v Speaker 1>to reach him? Are you trying to reach my three

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<v Speaker 1>year old? I think, first of all, that's that's a

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<v Speaker 1>great example of what we believe our growth strategy offers

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<v Speaker 1>us as a multigenerational appeal. You know, we obviously have

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<v Speaker 1>a core based business with kids three to eight and

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<v Speaker 1>some younger, some older, but as the brand of sells

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<v Speaker 1>Hot Wheels, Barbie and others have have have affinity and

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<v Speaker 1>emotional connection. We have a collector audience that's growing rapidly

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<v Speaker 1>and becomes an incremental part of our toy business. So again,

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<v Speaker 1>when you look at our three trajectories, growth in our

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<v Speaker 1>core franchises with our core audience, and then incrementality with

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<v Speaker 1>adults and collectors, that are going to be really exciting

0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:34.600
<v Speaker 1>going forward. Probably movie production start this month. It started.

0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.480
<v Speaker 1>We're in second week in production. It is unbelievable. We

0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:40.920
<v Speaker 1>might want to, I might want to. I can't disclose

0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:42.920
<v Speaker 1>all the information, by the way counter discloses. Being on

0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.280
<v Speaker 1>set was absolutely magical, and it's going to be a

0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:50.160
<v Speaker 1>pop culture conversation man the actors. Richard Dixon, thank you

0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:52.520
<v Speaker 1>so much. Thank you any time with both of you.

0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Great to have you here. Richard Dixon, he's the president,

0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.680
<v Speaker 1>chief operating officer at Mattel here in studio. This is

0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:01.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol mass Her and Bloomberg Quick

0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:05.400
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So Florida wants to

0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 1>be known for more than a place to have some

0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:09.600
<v Speaker 1>fun in the sun. They're already attracting. We know the

0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.080
<v Speaker 1>financial types. We talked about that a lot, and just

0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 1>recently we talked about the surging retail sale industry. Retail

0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.599
<v Speaker 1>sales or the retail industry in in Palm Beach, and

0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:25.000
<v Speaker 1>then of course there's crypto. Crypto uh huge when it

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.040
<v Speaker 1>comes to Miami, or at least that's what Miami Mayor

0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:30.120
<v Speaker 1>Francis Suarez is hoping to make it. He's trying to

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.640
<v Speaker 1>do what Finance was in New York and what Web

0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:36.720
<v Speaker 1>two was in San Francisco and Silicon Valley happened for

0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:40.360
<v Speaker 1>Web three in Miami. Mr lane A Golfa Pulu is

0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.559
<v Speaker 1>personal finance reporter for Bloomberg new She's with us in

0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.080
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg in Ractive Broker studio, but she spent some

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:48.080
<v Speaker 1>serious time in Miami talking to the mayor and talking

0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:52.280
<v Speaker 1>to others, uh, including people who are behind crypto firms there,

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>missy Uh. Can they pull it off? Can Miami pull

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.480
<v Speaker 1>it off? Can Miami become the center of crypto in

0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the US. That's the million dollar question? Um. You know,

0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:04.600
<v Speaker 1>I think that as someone who lives in New York.

0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 1>When I first visited Miami a couple of weeks ago,

0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:10.040
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to see what this hype is about. You know,

0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:13.080
<v Speaker 1>everyone talks about crypto in Miami, but is it there?

0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 1>Can you feel it? And the truth is you definitely can.

0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean you walk around the street and you see

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:24.240
<v Speaker 1>pain bitcoin signs everywhere. You're seeing restaurants, nightclubs starting to

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 1>accept it as a form of payment. You're seeing n

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 1>F team murals pop up everywhere around the city. And

0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.680
<v Speaker 1>it's sort of like sliding into real estate as well.

0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 1>So if you want to put you know, money down

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:38.160
<v Speaker 1>for a down payment for an apartment, you can do

0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:41.439
<v Speaker 1>so with crypto in Miami. And so the hype is

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.360
<v Speaker 1>the regular people or is it the you know, wealthy

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.439
<v Speaker 1>people who can throw crypto around. I don't think it's

0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 1>the regular people. I do think it's the piece people.

0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm a regular person too. I think it's you know

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.319
<v Speaker 1>what I mean, Like definitely, I think it's the people

0:13:57.360 --> 0:14:01.240
<v Speaker 1>that moved down there during COVID and have been able

0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.320
<v Speaker 1>to sort of form a community that really sort of

0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 1>embrace this crypto. But it is permeating throughout different aspects

0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 1>of life in a way that you don't see it

0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 1>in any other city. But is this going to be

0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.440
<v Speaker 1>long lasting? Right? Because this is sort of coming off

0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.679
<v Speaker 1>of the back of what happened during COVID. A lot

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.840
<v Speaker 1>of people moved down there, A lot of rich people

0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 1>moved down there. So investors are plentiful in Miami right now.

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.720
<v Speaker 1>But will this last for a long time? We don't know. Okay,

0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.240
<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg. So we like the data. We have

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:33.320
<v Speaker 1>the numbers. You got the numbers from pitchbook. This chart

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 1>in your story, this INTERACTI chart to encourage evility to

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 1>read this online because it is interactive. Uh, missy, San

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.120
<v Speaker 1>Francisco and New York just blow Miami out of the

0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 1>water when it comes to deal value, whether we're talking

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 1>one or so far this year. Yeah, I mean Miami

0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 1>crypto Starbucks have startups excuse me, have attracted a sliver

0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:56.479
<v Speaker 1>of the money that San Francisco and New York have

0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 1>have attracted. We have them here. This is for crypto

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 1>to like. So this is of Victor crypto exactly, but

0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean throughout like the whole industry, and the difference

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 1>is way bigger. So this is wait, this is okay,

0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 1>This is tracking money going into crypto startups in Miami,

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.000
<v Speaker 1>and that number is compared to San Francisco, New York exactly.

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 1>In Miami, that number is eighty eight million. In San Francisco,

0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 1>it's twelve point seven billion. In New York it's seven billies.

0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.440
<v Speaker 1>The numbers don't lie. The numbers don't lie. But look

0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.120
<v Speaker 1>at the year of her year increase that Miami stawped

0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>as I do, not as I say, like, I mean,

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.880
<v Speaker 1>this is like really what's happening right exactly? But again

0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 1>the year of her year increase that Miami saw between one,

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's crazy. They went from six million into

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 1>crypto startups startups to seven hundred million into crypto start

0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.120
<v Speaker 1>ups within a year, right, And so you see the

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:51.280
<v Speaker 1>growth there. It's gonna take time to reach the levels

0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 1>that New York and San Francisco are in, but we're

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 1>seeing this crazy growth. So when we think about crypto,

0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 1>like I do wonder about like how you create a

0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 1>crypto infrastructure world, right, I mean, are there other cities

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.720
<v Speaker 1>that are making moves to actually kind of provide an

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 1>environment where it's easy and fluid to kind of move

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 1>within crypto? Definitely, I mean New York is one of them.

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 1>We saw Mayor Eric Adams go and I'm not doing

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:18.320
<v Speaker 1>anything in crypto. Yeah, it's definitely not seeing it's definitely

0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.720
<v Speaker 1>not happening in the way it's happening in Miami. I'll

0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.240
<v Speaker 1>put it that way. I think it that sort of

0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 1>organizational sort of um campaign that the mayor brought forth

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.240
<v Speaker 1>really attractive people, and we talked still getting paid in crypto?

0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:34.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't think so. Um. You know. We spoke to

0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.880
<v Speaker 1>the blockchain dot Com CEO who moved his office down

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:38.800
<v Speaker 1>to Miami, and he told us that he was actually

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.640
<v Speaker 1>negotiating with several states when COVID hit to decide where

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 1>he would move his headquarters to. And when I asked him,

0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:48.640
<v Speaker 1>you know why Miami, he said that the vision the

0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.000
<v Speaker 1>mayor had really just convinced him to do it because

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.280
<v Speaker 1>for a company like blockchain dot Com, think about how

0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.680
<v Speaker 1>much easier it is to actually retain talent and attract

0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:00.840
<v Speaker 1>talent in a city where crypto is something that everyone

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:02.880
<v Speaker 1>is sort of on board with. So for him, he

0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.199
<v Speaker 1>was like, I can hire people here that I may

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.640
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily be able to hire other cities, thinking about

0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.040
<v Speaker 1>you could be part of that lab in this experiment exactly.

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.440
<v Speaker 1>And he had the mayor come and speak to you know,

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 1>on site at his company, to all the workers there,

0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:21.080
<v Speaker 1>and so that kind of interaction between city officials and

0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:24.280
<v Speaker 1>people having like a vision down there is really prevalent

0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:27.639
<v Speaker 1>in Miami. You did also right though, Missy about the

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:32.920
<v Speaker 1>governor of Florida, and how that in his policies could

0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.640
<v Speaker 1>prevent people from wanting to live there and relocating from

0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:38.160
<v Speaker 1>New York or San Francisco. Perhaps, Yeah, it's it's hard

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.720
<v Speaker 1>to separate Miami from the state of Florida, which it's based,

0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, and politics down there are very controversial for

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:46.439
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people. Well, what I will say is

0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.280
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't seem to matter for all those people that

0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.199
<v Speaker 1>decided to move down to Miami during COVID, And I

0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>think that tells us something. I mean, Miami in and

0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.520
<v Speaker 1>of itself, I think has to really separated itself from

0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.639
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the state. And if all these people

0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 1>are willing to move down there because nothing was shut

0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.760
<v Speaker 1>down and because they had freedoms to do whatever they

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.399
<v Speaker 1>wanted in their day to day life during COVID, you know,

0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.080
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't necessarily point to the fact that this is

0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.600
<v Speaker 1>going to be a problem, at least for now. But

0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 1>the state has other issues as well, right. I think

0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:18.080
<v Speaker 1>we also speak in the story about how it doesn't

0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:22.680
<v Speaker 1>have top tier if I educational institutions like San Francisco

0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:24.320
<v Speaker 1>and New York, and so I think that might be

0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:26.960
<v Speaker 1>something that we should keep our eyes onto it's important.

0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:29.440
<v Speaker 1>Mister Laney got a poolly personal finance reporter for Bloomberg

0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 1>News with us in the Bloomberg INTERACTI Broker Studio. Check

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.840
<v Speaker 1>out her story on Bloomberg dot com. You're listening to

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.920
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes

0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:42.199
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio in the upcoming issue of

0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:44.240
<v Speaker 1>the magazine, a story that also happens to be among

0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.440
<v Speaker 1>her the most read on the Bloomberg Today and Tim,

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:48.920
<v Speaker 1>it's about how an ultra type job market as employers

0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 1>from law of healthcare dropping some of those tough job requirements. Yeah,

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:55.280
<v Speaker 1>these job requirements are known in the industry as quote

0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:57.520
<v Speaker 1>unquote credential lane. It's not something that I had thought

0:18:57.560 --> 0:18:59.679
<v Speaker 1>a lot about before reading this story, and it's not

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:03.399
<v Speaker 1>us doctors and lawyers that require this type of credentialing.

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 1>Jordan do is US economics reporter for Bloomberg Economics. J

0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:09.960
<v Speaker 1>Jordan joins us on the phone from Washington, d C.

0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.840
<v Speaker 1>Jordan's story is featured in the upcoming issue of Business

0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:16.639
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine. Check it out at the Bloomberg Terminal and

0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:18.960
<v Speaker 1>of course, at Bloomberg dot com. Slash business Week as well.

0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.639
<v Speaker 1>Joe Weber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's with

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:24.959
<v Speaker 1>us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio Joel. Credential NG

0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 1>obviously coming to a head right now because of a

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:32.120
<v Speaker 1>tight labor market, but it would seem that changes, Uh,

0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:34.560
<v Speaker 1>we're we're kind of happening before the pandemic to or

0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:36.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of on their way to happen, because it's part

0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:40.879
<v Speaker 1>of a broader conversation about access. Do you have credentials

0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:43.920
<v Speaker 1>to ask me such a question? Um, that's a good question.

0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:48.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm unfortunately, unfortunately I'm overqualified. Yeah, that's that's a problem

0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.840
<v Speaker 1>that on another day. And boy is that over sorry

0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:57.320
<v Speaker 1>over credential not overqualified? That that that does kind of

0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.560
<v Speaker 1>sum it all up though, right, And what the pandemic

0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.040
<v Speaker 1>did was allow a lot of people to say, wait

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.600
<v Speaker 1>a second, maybe we can't we don't need all these

0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:09.080
<v Speaker 1>prerequisite things that we've always required it And so some

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.720
<v Speaker 1>of some people basically that that kind of threshold came down.

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.639
<v Speaker 1>And now the question is do you raise the threshold

0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:18.959
<v Speaker 1>again or does it make you just rethink everything? And

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:23.439
<v Speaker 1>in Jordan, what did you learn in your reporting? Well,

0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:25.800
<v Speaker 1>what I learned. What was interesting for me here is

0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 1>is so much of this conversation historically has been about

0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:31.720
<v Speaker 1>workers well, I guess you could say are sort of

0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.360
<v Speaker 1>on the lower end of the labor market, or who

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.760
<v Speaker 1>work in fields that are sort of lower stakes, that

0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:42.480
<v Speaker 1>have less interaction with people, So care dressers, even florists,

0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:46.879
<v Speaker 1>um plumbers. These workers are all subjected to different types

0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:50.159
<v Speaker 1>of licensing requirements, and for many years a lot of

0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:54.679
<v Speaker 1>policymakers across the spectrum have called for a reevaluation of

0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:58.160
<v Speaker 1>these requirements. But I think what we're seeing in more

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.239
<v Speaker 1>recent years, really brought on by the pandemic, is this

0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:06.760
<v Speaker 1>debate kind of broadening to include more white collar advanced professions.

0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:08.760
<v Speaker 1>So we're seeing it in law, We're seeing it in

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 1>healthcare and education where you have either job shortages or

0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:17.239
<v Speaker 1>you have you know, COVID causing disruption and causing us

0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:21.040
<v Speaker 1>to question the status quo way of doing things. You know,

0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 1>COVID has has upended so many conventions when it comes

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:28.920
<v Speaker 1>to work, when it comes to schooling, And it's interesting

0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:31.480
<v Speaker 1>now that we're two years out to see what might

0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:34.359
<v Speaker 1>stick um where, you know, and in which cases we

0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 1>might kind of snap back to how things were done historically,

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.399
<v Speaker 1>or if people will use this as an opportunity to

0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:43.119
<v Speaker 1>kind of re evaluate, um, not just that ninth to

0:21:43.200 --> 0:21:46.920
<v Speaker 1>five office routine, but sort of the path to getting there. Jordan,

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:49.679
<v Speaker 1>There's a stat that really jumped out at me. In

0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 1>the nineteen fifties, about one in twenty Americans needed a

0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:55.320
<v Speaker 1>license to work in their field. Now it's about one

0:21:55.359 --> 0:22:00.240
<v Speaker 1>in four. What's happened so over the decades, there's there's

0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:04.080
<v Speaker 1>absolutely been an explosion in licensing, and it's really across

0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 1>all different types of fields. So, as I mentioned earlier, um,

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.800
<v Speaker 1>you know some types of jobs and occupations that you

0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:14.440
<v Speaker 1>might not imagine. Florists is a good example. And these

0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:18.200
<v Speaker 1>are state by state licensing requirements, and that's what historically

0:22:18.280 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot of this debate has been about that if

0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:23.159
<v Speaker 1>you live in one state and if you you know,

0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:25.840
<v Speaker 1>relocate to another, which is what we saw a lot

0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:28.840
<v Speaker 1>of during the pandemic, um that it causes a lot

0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:30.960
<v Speaker 1>of red tape because you have to go through all

0:22:31.000 --> 0:22:33.719
<v Speaker 1>of the steps again to get re licensed in the

0:22:33.720 --> 0:22:37.160
<v Speaker 1>new state for doing fairly similar work. You know, where

0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:39.480
<v Speaker 1>the require you know, the the nature of the work

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:42.800
<v Speaker 1>doesn't really shift much from state to state UM. And

0:22:42.840 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 1>so over the years we've seen more and more of

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:48.160
<v Speaker 1>this thing, which is which is overseen by seen by

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.399
<v Speaker 1>states and state licensing boards, UM, you know, more and

0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 1>more of it UM. But I think what's what's different

0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:58.440
<v Speaker 1>now is that the pressure is not just on those

0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:02.000
<v Speaker 1>types of jobs where people where you know, there's there's

0:23:02.080 --> 0:23:05.680
<v Speaker 1>greater consensus about do we really need licensing here? We're

0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:09.399
<v Speaker 1>now seeing that in these um you know, in jobs

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:12.280
<v Speaker 1>where people are working in courtrooms and schools and hospitals,

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:14.959
<v Speaker 1>where there is a lot of concern about you know,

0:23:15.000 --> 0:23:17.879
<v Speaker 1>your your people's health is on the line, people's you know,

0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:21.879
<v Speaker 1>you're representing clients and court rooms that the arguments and

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:24.800
<v Speaker 1>support of licensing when it comes to protecting public health

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:28.119
<v Speaker 1>and safety are probably most pronounced in these professions. And

0:23:28.119 --> 0:23:31.080
<v Speaker 1>so it's interesting that we're that that it's expanding in

0:23:31.119 --> 0:23:34.240
<v Speaker 1>those areas as well. It's also interesting there is when

0:23:34.400 --> 0:23:37.960
<v Speaker 1>what you're describing on a state by state basis, it

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 1>just seems like there's got to be a way of

0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:44.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, being used to generate revenue, right, and so

0:23:44.119 --> 0:23:47.679
<v Speaker 1>how much of that has entered the conversation licensing as

0:23:47.720 --> 0:23:52.240
<v Speaker 1>a way to boost state revenues. Yeah, I think I

0:23:52.280 --> 0:23:54.800
<v Speaker 1>think that's a lot of the arguments, for sure. A

0:23:54.840 --> 0:23:56.879
<v Speaker 1>lot of the you know, the pushback against some of

0:23:56.880 --> 0:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>these regimes is that it is sort of self serving.

0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:03.720
<v Speaker 1>The sense that you know, you're you know, the woman

0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 1>we spoke with, calls of our exam for example, like

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:09.600
<v Speaker 1>a gate keeping measure, and there's a sense that these

0:24:10.119 --> 0:24:13.879
<v Speaker 1>restrictions serves the members that you know, if you can

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:16.640
<v Speaker 1>restrict the number of people entering the field, you can,

0:24:16.840 --> 0:24:19.000
<v Speaker 1>those people are going to get paid more because there

0:24:19.000 --> 0:24:23.040
<v Speaker 1>are fewer of them UM providing their services. UM. Similarly,

0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:27.120
<v Speaker 1>for the associations and the boards who are dolling out

0:24:27.200 --> 0:24:30.879
<v Speaker 1>these licensing UM, these licenses, it is, it is the

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:34.280
<v Speaker 1>source of revenue and so UM. I spoke with a

0:24:34.320 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 1>professor at the University of Minnesota who's done a lot

0:24:37.600 --> 0:24:40.680
<v Speaker 1>on licensing, Morris Kleiner. He wrote a piece in two

0:24:40.720 --> 0:24:44.639
<v Speaker 1>thousand eighteen approximating two hundred billion dollars up to two

0:24:44.720 --> 0:24:49.080
<v Speaker 1>hundred billion dollars annually and what he calls misallocated resources

0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:53.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm connected to excessive licensing. Well, I gotta say, I

0:24:53.040 --> 0:24:55.320
<v Speaker 1>want my electrician that to be licensed, because I really

0:24:55.359 --> 0:25:02.359
<v Speaker 1>do care. He was over dent. You know that this

0:25:02.440 --> 0:25:04.679
<v Speaker 1>feels like to what's going on with college is right

0:25:04.760 --> 0:25:07.280
<v Speaker 1>the application process, you know, with the test option, because

0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:08.879
<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's such a huge industry, there's so

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:11.760
<v Speaker 1>much money involved, but you're increasingly seeing college a step away.

0:25:11.800 --> 0:25:14.840
<v Speaker 1>But there's also a component to your story, Um, Jordan,

0:25:14.960 --> 0:25:20.120
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to racial exclusion because of excessive licensing.

0:25:20.280 --> 0:25:22.960
<v Speaker 1>UM just got about thirty seconds what you found out

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 1>on that? Sure, Well, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve just put

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 1>out research last month showing that is the case that

0:25:31.480 --> 0:25:34.720
<v Speaker 1>across education levels, we see this gap when it comes

0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:40.480
<v Speaker 1>to licensing, UM, where white workers are disproportionately more licensed.

0:25:40.520 --> 0:25:42.800
<v Speaker 1>And you know, in a lot of these and a

0:25:42.840 --> 0:25:46.040
<v Speaker 1>lot of different sectors, obtaining a license is very costly

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:50.520
<v Speaker 1>and very time consuming, and it can be cost prohibitive.

0:25:50.800 --> 0:25:53.200
<v Speaker 1>So people who have more money to begin with are

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:56.959
<v Speaker 1>more likely to break through those hoops, UM, And so

0:25:57.000 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 1>we're definitely the data definitely supports that. Well, it's certainly

0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:02.560
<v Speaker 1>a sign of the times. Um. We're gonna leave it there.

0:26:02.680 --> 0:26:06.000
<v Speaker 1>I really appreciate it. Jordan jordanad He's US economics reporter

0:26:06.000 --> 0:26:08.879
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg Economics, joining us on the phone from Washington,

0:26:09.160 --> 0:26:11.720
<v Speaker 1>and of course, thanks to Joe Weber, editor Bloomberg Business Week.

0:26:11.760 --> 0:26:13.600
<v Speaker 1>Here in our interacted broker studio, can we tell everybody

0:26:13.600 --> 0:26:17.320
<v Speaker 1>why you're dressed up? We got some national magazine awards tonight,

0:26:17.720 --> 0:26:21.399
<v Speaker 1>a couple nice Joel good Lass. Maybe we come in

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:23.639
<v Speaker 1>tomorrow with the trophy here, So okay, fingers crossed it

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:25.920
<v Speaker 1>that plays out? All right? Check out this story to

0:26:26.000 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It will

0:26:28.520 --> 0:26:31.040
<v Speaker 1>be out later this week online though already and on

0:26:31.119 --> 0:26:34.560
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. This is

0:26:34.600 --> 0:26:40.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with

0:26:40.400 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Alright, everybody,

0:26:47.080 --> 0:26:49.240
<v Speaker 1>just about ten minutes left in the trading session in

0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:51.560
<v Speaker 1>lo and behold. Remember we had a pretty hot m

0:26:51.600 --> 0:26:54.359
<v Speaker 1>and a uh year last year, and we're continuing to

0:26:54.359 --> 0:26:57.399
<v Speaker 1>see stuff happening. Just to rehash, we heard it from

0:26:57.480 --> 0:27:01.240
<v Speaker 1>Charlie Spirit Airlines making an off for our getting an

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:03.639
<v Speaker 1>offer from Jet Blue, a takeover offer, and we're seeing

0:27:03.680 --> 0:27:09.160
<v Speaker 1>shares of Spirit up about it is a three point

0:27:09.240 --> 0:27:11.239
<v Speaker 1>six billion dollar offering again, this is from the New

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:15.919
<v Speaker 1>York Times. Yeah, that offers a roughly premium over the

0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:19.320
<v Speaker 1>offer that Frontier had made in cash and shares to

0:27:19.480 --> 0:27:22.520
<v Speaker 1>buy spirit uh Jeff Police shares by the way down

0:27:22.840 --> 0:27:25.320
<v Speaker 1>of just about eight percent. Yeah, no, no surprise, they're

0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 1>right as the potential acquirer. All right, let's get to it.

0:27:27.600 --> 0:27:30.000
<v Speaker 1>It's a different market day. We heard Caroline Hyde, one

0:27:30.040 --> 0:27:32.680
<v Speaker 1>of our TV colleagues, saying very different kind of from

0:27:32.680 --> 0:27:34.920
<v Speaker 1>what we had yesterday. So let's see what our guest

0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:37.679
<v Speaker 1>has to say about the current environment because we have

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 1>stocks pretty much at their lows. A Newgagar is back

0:27:40.600 --> 0:27:44.080
<v Speaker 1>with us, global investment strategist for Commonwealth Financial Network. She

0:27:44.200 --> 0:27:47.840
<v Speaker 1>is once again with us on the phone in Waltham, Massachusetts. Hey,

0:27:47.840 --> 0:27:50.960
<v Speaker 1>a new Uh, nice to have you here. Had a

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:54.960
<v Speaker 1>bunch of FED speakers out there, esther George mary Dale

0:27:55.040 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 1>or Lale brainerd uh, And they seem to be pretty aggressive,

0:27:58.080 --> 0:27:59.679
<v Speaker 1>or at least some of them, when it comes to

0:28:00.200 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>what we might get out of the balance sheet in

0:28:03.640 --> 0:28:07.199
<v Speaker 1>terms of reductions on that specifically come at main meeting,

0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:10.159
<v Speaker 1>and that has put pressure about the equity trade and

0:28:10.200 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 1>certainly the fixed income treasury market. Trade. Um, how does

0:28:14.600 --> 0:28:16.800
<v Speaker 1>that factor into your market projections if we start to

0:28:16.840 --> 0:28:20.639
<v Speaker 1>see more aggressive moves on the balance sheet? O, Carol,

0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:23.000
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for having me. Great to be

0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:25.960
<v Speaker 1>back here today with you. So you are correct. The

0:28:26.000 --> 0:28:29.280
<v Speaker 1>market is pricing in a more hawkish bed, which includes

0:28:29.320 --> 0:28:33.200
<v Speaker 1>not just rate heights, but also a more aggressive balance

0:28:33.240 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 1>sheet normalization process and likely most sanctions impol John Russia

0:28:38.600 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 1>with the derivative impact belt in the commodity markets. So

0:28:42.160 --> 0:28:47.680
<v Speaker 1>and an inflation globally. And Um, what we're seeing with

0:28:47.800 --> 0:28:51.920
<v Speaker 1>the Fed, the more hawkish Fed is we saw the

0:28:51.960 --> 0:28:56.680
<v Speaker 1>youth of in voting earlier this week, last week, So

0:28:56.760 --> 0:29:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the youth gold seems to be signaling of upcoming recession?

0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:05.720
<v Speaker 1>And is it is it productive to keep having this

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:07.680
<v Speaker 1>recession talk? I can't. I feel like at this point

0:29:07.760 --> 0:29:09.760
<v Speaker 1>we all know that at some point Republic can get

0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:12.200
<v Speaker 1>a recession. It might be equivalent. I mean, come on,

0:29:12.480 --> 0:29:14.720
<v Speaker 1>I no, you don't know. I completely agree with you.

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:16.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, look at the last recession that we predicted.

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:18.880
<v Speaker 1>It predicted it in but the only reason the recession

0:29:18.920 --> 0:29:22.160
<v Speaker 1>happened was because of COVID, which was not something in right,

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:23.640
<v Speaker 1>So is it at this point? Is there a more

0:29:23.680 --> 0:29:26.080
<v Speaker 1>constructive conversation to have then, are we are not going

0:29:26.160 --> 0:29:31.400
<v Speaker 1>to have a recession? You made a great point, and

0:29:31.720 --> 0:29:34.600
<v Speaker 1>we actually do need to take a more holistic perspective

0:29:34.680 --> 0:29:39.720
<v Speaker 1>on the inversion, uh, and also separate the correct co

0:29:39.960 --> 0:29:44.800
<v Speaker 1>relation from the causation. So historically there is about an

0:29:44.800 --> 0:29:48.440
<v Speaker 1>eighty percent probability that a Nields in version is followed

0:29:48.440 --> 0:29:51.080
<v Speaker 1>by a recession, and that is a strong core relation

0:29:51.640 --> 0:29:55.000
<v Speaker 1>and explains why the market is so volatile. But the

0:29:55.120 --> 0:29:58.600
<v Speaker 1>inversion in and of itself does not cause a recession,

0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:02.000
<v Speaker 1>and the not give a good sense of the timing

0:30:02.040 --> 0:30:05.640
<v Speaker 1>for a recession. So what would cause that? So it's

0:30:05.640 --> 0:30:08.200
<v Speaker 1>not the inversion right that causes the recession? What would

0:30:08.240 --> 0:30:12.720
<v Speaker 1>cause our recession? So uh to uh, you know, it

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:15.640
<v Speaker 1>says that we need to look at the other economic

0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:18.440
<v Speaker 1>data points and they have what we're seeing right now.

0:30:18.480 --> 0:30:21.840
<v Speaker 1>In the economy, it's still it's on a very strong footing.

0:30:22.400 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 1>There are more job openings than people looking for employment.

0:30:25.760 --> 0:30:29.959
<v Speaker 1>Wages are growing, convealers are spending, companies are growing learning,

0:30:30.400 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 1>and most importantly, household and copper balance sheets are quite strong. So, yes,

0:30:35.600 --> 0:30:40.040
<v Speaker 1>as you said, recessions risk, it might happen. It's an

0:30:40.080 --> 0:30:43.080
<v Speaker 1>economic cycle. It goes up and goes down. So the

0:30:43.200 --> 0:30:47.120
<v Speaker 1>session risk has risen and we have likely paschment cycle

0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:50.480
<v Speaker 1>and it's possibly heading into late cycles. But this part

0:30:50.480 --> 0:30:52.880
<v Speaker 1>of the cycle could last for as little as six

0:30:52.960 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 1>to seven months and as high as three years before

0:30:55.760 --> 0:30:58.400
<v Speaker 1>we hit recessions, so we can technically be out of it,

0:30:58.560 --> 0:31:00.160
<v Speaker 1>and then we'll get the reports of hey, for cause

0:31:00.120 --> 0:31:02.960
<v Speaker 1>we were in a recession. Right, yeah, that's right. It

0:31:03.040 --> 0:31:06.800
<v Speaker 1>could be just a shallow recession. Yeah, okay, So how

0:31:06.840 --> 0:31:09.360
<v Speaker 1>do you how does our investing audience play the next

0:31:09.400 --> 0:31:14.000
<v Speaker 1>six or twelve months? Yea. So it is important to

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:16.880
<v Speaker 1>note that even when when the years goes it work,

0:31:17.400 --> 0:31:20.080
<v Speaker 1>it's really a poor signal for getting out of this

0:31:20.280 --> 0:31:24.440
<v Speaker 1>gases such as equity because late cycle is not the end,

0:31:24.800 --> 0:31:28.000
<v Speaker 1>not the same as the end of cycle, and equities

0:31:28.040 --> 0:31:31.240
<v Speaker 1>can continue to offer positive return. In fact, in the

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:35.120
<v Speaker 1>last six episodes of yields goes in version since nineteen

0:31:35.240 --> 0:31:39.080
<v Speaker 1>seventy five, global equities have an aggregate written in the

0:31:39.120 --> 0:31:42.880
<v Speaker 1>twelve month period after that version. But of course, under

0:31:42.920 --> 0:31:45.640
<v Speaker 1>the surface there are shifts and leadership and that's where

0:31:45.640 --> 0:31:48.280
<v Speaker 1>we need to focus. Well, So and that's a really

0:31:48.280 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 1>good point, and I think maybe that is and I

0:31:49.840 --> 0:31:52.200
<v Speaker 1>know certainly we do this with our TV colleagues and

0:31:52.200 --> 0:31:56.800
<v Speaker 1>beyond the bell um in terms of constructive conversations about

0:31:57.400 --> 0:32:00.960
<v Speaker 1>right sector rotation, market rotation, like we we can see

0:32:00.960 --> 0:32:03.440
<v Speaker 1>that that will still provide some momentum for the equities,

0:32:03.480 --> 0:32:07.560
<v Speaker 1>but it's not just an all in rally, that's right.

0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:14.360
<v Speaker 1>So UM returns generally have been weaker in the post

0:32:14.440 --> 0:32:18.840
<v Speaker 1>in version period U when we start looking at how

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:22.960
<v Speaker 1>to go state defensive sectors have typically outperformed the C

0:32:23.040 --> 0:32:26.640
<v Speaker 1>clicking sectors in the twelve months period after the two

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 1>ten englosion. And they should make into it of sense

0:32:30.240 --> 0:32:34.880
<v Speaker 1>because if we are nearing late cycles, equities are probably expensive,

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:38.760
<v Speaker 1>Copper learnings have peaked. We are already looking at UM

0:32:38.920 --> 0:32:42.440
<v Speaker 1>earning expectations for two one twenty two of about four

0:32:42.480 --> 0:32:47.160
<v Speaker 1>points seven six cents, which is UM much lower than

0:32:47.200 --> 0:32:50.920
<v Speaker 1>what we've seen in the last several quarters. And UM

0:32:50.920 --> 0:32:53.600
<v Speaker 1>the feeder raising rates, so all of these factors can

0:32:53.680 --> 0:33:00.280
<v Speaker 1>damfinitely return MUM also, you know, so basically would be

0:33:00.320 --> 0:33:03.719
<v Speaker 1>what I'm saying is you have to be more defensively positioned.

0:33:03.840 --> 0:33:06.520
<v Speaker 1>And also if you look at the US versus non US,

0:33:06.720 --> 0:33:11.400
<v Speaker 1>US equally inaggregate book more attractive than not US. All right,

0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:15.800
<v Speaker 1>It's it's tricky, hey, and you always feel like we

0:33:15.840 --> 0:33:18.240
<v Speaker 1>have a very thoughtful conversation with you. So thank you

0:33:18.320 --> 0:33:20.239
<v Speaker 1>so much for for coming out. Tim and I were

0:33:20.240 --> 0:33:24.920
<v Speaker 1>both jotting notes furiously, typing pretty frantically um our drive

0:33:25.000 --> 0:33:27.640
<v Speaker 1>to the closer that new gagar is Global investment Strategist

0:33:27.720 --> 0:33:31.440
<v Speaker 1>are coming with Financial Network. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:35.160
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:33:35.200 --> 0:33:37.040
<v Speaker 1>dot com, and you can also listen to our radio

0:33:37.080 --> 0:33:39.640
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0:33:39.760 --> 0:33:42.120
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