WEBVTT - What to Look for on Election Day 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:27.404 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:27.444 --> 0:00:30.044 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:29.684 --> 0:00:32.244 And I'm Nate Silver. Do we even need a script? 0:00:32.244 --> 0:00:34.044 For today? We're talking about the election, right. 0:00:34.484 --> 0:00:38.844 We are, and today is Monday, November fourth, and so 0:00:38.884 --> 0:00:41.964 today we will be This is an extra special episode 0:00:42.684 --> 0:00:45.044 of Risky Business. We don't usually drop on Mondays, but 0:00:45.124 --> 0:00:47.564 here we are recording and dropping on the same day 0:00:47.684 --> 0:00:51.444 to bring you what we know and hope and fear 0:00:51.724 --> 0:00:56.244 and just state of the world less than twenty four 0:00:56.284 --> 0:01:06.844 hours away from election day. Yeah, it's exciting. Nate. What 0:01:06.884 --> 0:01:08.644 are your plans for today and for tomorrow? 0:01:09.564 --> 0:01:14.124 So for today there are things that are extremely high 0:01:14.164 --> 0:01:20.124 priority and things that are medium high priority. Today, at midnight, 0:01:20.524 --> 0:01:22.804 we will run the model for the last time, and 0:01:22.844 --> 0:01:25.364 I'll publish kind of my big last overview of the race. 0:01:25.404 --> 0:01:27.644 So I'm starting to write that in my head. 0:01:27.684 --> 0:01:28.484 I haven't put. 0:01:28.924 --> 0:01:32.124 Keys to our fingers to keys quite yet. We also 0:01:32.164 --> 0:01:35.684 have an election night model for Silver Bulletin readers that 0:01:35.844 --> 0:01:40.884 I think is kind of cool. It relies on which 0:01:40.884 --> 0:01:44.644 states have been called by the networks, because we didn't 0:01:44.644 --> 0:01:49.804 want to have to estimate vote shares individually. Right, we 0:01:49.804 --> 0:01:51.644 don't want to have to get too cute and we're busy. 0:01:51.684 --> 0:01:55.004 We're just two people, Eli and I. But I'll figured 0:01:55.044 --> 0:01:56.844 out that you can get a lot of information from 0:01:56.844 --> 0:02:00.204 like when a state is called. If Florida, probably a 0:02:00.204 --> 0:02:03.204 Trump state is called early for Trump accounts, it's both 0:02:03.204 --> 0:02:07.124 fast that reveals much more information than if it takes 0:02:07.204 --> 0:02:09.404 a while, and it's kind of closed, which, even though 0:02:09.404 --> 0:02:13.284 Trump might win, is kind of potentially maybe even vaguely 0:02:13.324 --> 0:02:16.764 okay for Harris. If Florida is not called until eleven PM, 0:02:16.844 --> 0:02:18.924 that means probably Trump wins by only a couple of points, 0:02:18.964 --> 0:02:21.444 which means that Harris will performing her polls. So the 0:02:21.484 --> 0:02:24.804 model can now account for the timing of calls as 0:02:24.844 --> 0:02:26.444 well as which state remains uncalled. 0:02:26.884 --> 0:02:28.084 I think it's pretty cool. Product. 0:02:28.404 --> 0:02:30.084 I have like three more hours of work to do 0:02:30.124 --> 0:02:30.764 on that product. 0:02:31.524 --> 0:02:35.044 No, that is pretty cool. Yeah, no, I didn't really 0:02:35.084 --> 0:02:36.644 think about that. But of course there is a ton 0:02:36.684 --> 0:02:39.964 of information in things like that which can be more 0:02:40.044 --> 0:02:43.124 bullish or more bearish for either of the candidates. So 0:02:43.164 --> 0:02:45.484 I'm excited to see how that plays out in real time. 0:02:45.884 --> 0:02:48.404 So before we get into kind of the nitty gritty 0:02:48.884 --> 0:02:50.644 and some of the big polls and big news that 0:02:50.684 --> 0:02:53.604 have come out since we lost spoke La last week. 0:02:54.204 --> 0:02:56.124 What is your thought on kind of where we are 0:02:56.204 --> 0:02:59.484 right now? Let's get like a big picture overview, you know, 0:02:59.564 --> 0:03:02.484 one day to go before the election. Where do we stand? 0:03:02.524 --> 0:03:03.404 Where does the ray stand? 0:03:03.884 --> 0:03:06.364 So the big picture, and we'll get into the medium 0:03:06.364 --> 0:03:09.004 sized picture in a moment. The big picture is that 0:03:09.084 --> 0:03:12.404 it's an extremely close election in the polls. That does 0:03:12.444 --> 0:03:16.444 not necessarily guarantee it will be a close election. In reality, 0:03:16.484 --> 0:03:18.044 the polls could be way off out the direction, and 0:03:18.084 --> 0:03:20.804 I've been getting more worried about that in both directions 0:03:20.844 --> 0:03:24.124 for various reasons recently. But you know, we've never had 0:03:24.164 --> 0:03:27.884 a presidential election this close to fifty to fifty. Literally, 0:03:27.924 --> 0:03:30.644 our last model run had Trump at fifty point Let 0:03:30.644 --> 0:03:33.044 me look at the exact numbers, just so I'm not 0:03:33.364 --> 0:03:38.444 misquoting myself, and Harris at forty nine point scroll down, page, 0:03:38.484 --> 0:03:43.564 scroll down, scroll down, Brood forty nine point two percent, 0:03:43.724 --> 0:03:47.284 Trump at fifty point four percent, and no majority meaning 0:03:47.284 --> 0:03:49.444 a tie which probably gets resolved for Trump by the way, 0:03:49.884 --> 0:03:52.484 at zero point four percent. So I literally do not 0:03:52.724 --> 0:03:55.524 know who's going to be ahead. In the last model 0:03:55.564 --> 0:03:59.644 run we published after midnight tonight. That is Harris's best 0:03:59.724 --> 0:04:02.164 number in two and a half weeks. At the same time, 0:04:02.204 --> 0:04:04.764 the forecast has spent the last six or seven weeks 0:04:05.164 --> 0:04:06.964 in the range we call a tass up within the 0:04:07.044 --> 0:04:08.124 range of sixty to forty. 0:04:08.124 --> 0:04:08.764 You now the direction. 0:04:09.124 --> 0:04:11.484 It's rarely fallen outside of that range. 0:04:11.524 --> 0:04:12.324 We've never gone. 0:04:12.164 --> 0:04:14.484 Outside that sixty forty range at almost any point, just 0:04:14.484 --> 0:04:18.164 for a few days for Harris after her convention she 0:04:18.164 --> 0:04:20.604 was below of forty percent. But like so, it's the 0:04:20.644 --> 0:04:25.364 same variation. There are these seven swing states. She at 0:04:25.364 --> 0:04:27.244 this point seems to be doing a little bit better 0:04:27.484 --> 0:04:30.804 in the Blue Wall states in particular Michigan and Wisconsin, 0:04:30.924 --> 0:04:32.964 less so in Pennsylvania. But that's kind of a pure 0:04:33.004 --> 0:04:38.564 tie and has kept a North Carolina and Georgia quite competitive. 0:04:38.604 --> 0:04:40.404 But if you squint, you see maybe a Trump lead 0:04:40.444 --> 0:04:42.844 of one point. No one can agree on Nevada except 0:04:42.884 --> 0:04:46.444 to say that we don't know anything about Nevada. Arizona 0:04:46.884 --> 0:04:49.124 is the one state that seems like the safest bet 0:04:49.124 --> 0:04:53.764 for Trump, although although Maria, there was a poll of 0:04:53.804 --> 0:04:58.644 Latino voters out today that showed Harris ahead, and it 0:04:58.764 --> 0:05:01.564 survey just I think it was Telemundo or Univision. 0:05:01.684 --> 0:05:02.764 I can't one of. 0:05:02.684 --> 0:05:07.524 Those major networks that had Harris winning Latinos by thirty 0:05:07.524 --> 0:05:09.684 two points in a large sample of Latinos or something 0:05:09.724 --> 0:05:12.844 the range of thirty two points, which would be a 0:05:12.884 --> 0:05:16.204 total reversal of earlier poland that showed her doing worse 0:05:16.244 --> 0:05:20.684 than typical Democratic margins among the Hispanic population. And you 0:05:20.684 --> 0:05:23.764 have this plausible cause where Trump had this rally where 0:05:24.884 --> 0:05:27.324 one of the warm up speakers made offensive comments about 0:05:27.564 --> 0:05:32.524 Puerto Ricans, and all these Latino pop stars endorsed Harris, 0:05:33.724 --> 0:05:34.364 and that would. 0:05:34.124 --> 0:05:34.564 Be a big deal. 0:05:34.604 --> 0:05:37.364 I mean, that's when you might get you know, in 0:05:37.404 --> 0:05:41.524 particular Arizona, Nevada finishing for Harris a little bit than 0:05:41.524 --> 0:05:45.124 the polls might suggest. By the way, there are a 0:05:45.124 --> 0:05:48.404 lot of Puerto Ricans in eastern Pennsylvania. There are some 0:05:48.484 --> 0:05:53.804 counties in Pennsylvania where eleven percent of the population is 0:05:54.364 --> 0:05:55.004 Puerto Rican. 0:05:57.404 --> 0:05:59.804 That could be important in. 0:05:59.884 --> 0:06:01.964 A race that could come down to one or two 0:06:02.004 --> 0:06:03.444 counties in Pennsylvania. 0:06:04.284 --> 0:06:07.764 And so I don't know, we. 0:06:07.684 --> 0:06:10.364 Talked about it last week bad but any matters people 0:06:10.604 --> 0:06:11.884 that matter. 0:06:12.484 --> 0:06:14.644 Well, I also worry that, like, look, there's not a 0:06:14.764 --> 0:06:17.044 huge change in the race. There's also some data that 0:06:17.084 --> 0:06:20.124 Harris is doing well with people who decided late in 0:06:20.124 --> 0:06:23.564 the race over the past week. You know, I mean, 0:06:23.564 --> 0:06:25.804 I wish, despite wanting to get some sleep and having 0:06:25.844 --> 0:06:28.244 this fucking thing be over with, I wish that uh, 0:06:29.044 --> 0:06:31.524 we had like three more days of polling, or that 0:06:31.564 --> 0:06:33.684 we had polsters that were pulling this week in because 0:06:33.764 --> 0:06:36.124 like you can kind of see the makings of a 0:06:36.164 --> 0:06:40.764 trend toward Harris. It's not so clear that it isn't 0:06:40.844 --> 0:06:43.924 just noise. A lot of polsters, by the way, are 0:06:44.284 --> 0:06:45.444 it's got picked up last. 0:06:45.244 --> 0:06:45.884 Week, are hurting. 0:06:45.924 --> 0:06:49.244 They're just kind of literally matching the polling averages exactly 0:06:49.284 --> 0:06:49.924 in every state. 0:06:51.924 --> 0:06:52.164 You know. 0:06:52.404 --> 0:06:55.884 But the independent data points like this pull latinos. 0:06:56.284 --> 0:06:56.924 The last seve New. 0:06:56.924 --> 0:06:59.684 York Times polls were pretty good for har It's not fantastic, 0:07:00.244 --> 0:07:05.004 you know, consistent with tilt Harris race. Also some poles 0:07:05.004 --> 0:07:06.604 that were good for Trump. Right, I mean, the forecast 0:07:06.684 --> 0:07:09.924 is like literally fifty to fifty. Now she talked about 0:07:09.924 --> 0:07:10.484 the Seltzer poll. 0:07:10.964 --> 0:07:13.964 Yeah, let's do it. So let's first set this up 0:07:14.044 --> 0:07:17.924 for people who don't obsessively follow polls. So the Seltzer poll, 0:07:18.084 --> 0:07:21.084 one of the most high quality polls that exists and 0:07:21.164 --> 0:07:23.684 something that people really pay attention to. Nate, do you 0:07:23.724 --> 0:07:25.444 want to just give us like a little bit of 0:07:25.484 --> 0:07:27.764 an overview why her poll matters and kind of what 0:07:28.604 --> 0:07:32.044 this means and why it's important that this poll dropped 0:07:32.244 --> 0:07:37.244 just right now and is actually giving information that is 0:07:37.564 --> 0:07:39.564 contrary to two prior polls in the state. 0:07:40.804 --> 0:07:44.604 So and Seltzer is the one polster that kind of 0:07:44.644 --> 0:07:48.364 doesn't have egg on her face. She has repeatedly defied 0:07:48.364 --> 0:07:51.284 the conventional wisdom and bean correct I remember in two 0:07:51.324 --> 0:07:55.244 thousand and eight she had Barack Obama winning the Iowa 0:07:55.324 --> 0:07:56.524 caucuses by a large margin. 0:07:56.524 --> 0:07:58.564 People didn't believe it, and he did so. 0:08:00.284 --> 0:08:05.484 In June and Seltzer has a poll showing Biden trailing 0:08:05.564 --> 0:08:11.004 Trump by eighteen points even a by the way, eighteen 0:08:11.044 --> 0:08:15.244 points is epic landslide. And she has an old school poster. 0:08:15.244 --> 0:08:17.644 She doesn't do this hurting crap. She's not afraid to 0:08:17.804 --> 0:08:20.404 let her data speak for itself. In September, she has 0:08:20.404 --> 0:08:23.764 a poll showing Kamala Harris trailing Trump, but by only 0:08:23.884 --> 0:08:26.564 four points in Iowa. People are like, oh, it's an outliner. 0:08:26.644 --> 0:08:30.004 Kind of interesting, kind of interesting. I think Biden lost 0:08:30.084 --> 0:08:33.884 Iowa by eight points in twenty and twenty, so she 0:08:33.924 --> 0:08:37.084 had her finer pull out on Saturday night. I had 0:08:37.084 --> 0:08:39.164 plans on Saturday which were canceled because of this poll. 0:08:40.364 --> 0:08:44.484 I'm okay, it'll probably show Trump plus six, a little 0:08:44.484 --> 0:08:48.444 bit better for Harris, and the priors might be, but 0:08:48.724 --> 0:08:51.564 you know whatever, we know Trump's gonna win Iowa instead. 0:08:51.844 --> 0:08:57.764 The number is Harris plus three, the state that Democrats 0:08:57.804 --> 0:09:00.004 lost by nine points in twenty eight nine points in 0:09:00.044 --> 0:09:03.044 twenty twenty, Harris has had by three points. Now, look, 0:09:03.564 --> 0:09:05.284 these poles have a margin of error. If you actually 0:09:05.364 --> 0:09:08.284 calculate this out diligently like I do, the real margin 0:09:08.364 --> 0:09:10.604 could be Trump plus three, or for that matter, Harris 0:09:10.604 --> 0:09:11.964 plus nine or whatever. 0:09:12.084 --> 0:09:13.284 I think that's pretty unlikely. 0:09:14.644 --> 0:09:18.644 But this is an epistemologically important data point because Anne 0:09:18.684 --> 0:09:23.924 Selter doesn't follow the herd. One of the few independent 0:09:23.924 --> 0:09:27.884 pieces of information that you get. And there's kind of 0:09:27.924 --> 0:09:31.124 a story of like Paris getting some surprisingly good polls 0:09:31.684 --> 0:09:34.724 in this kind of prairie part of the Midwest. Right, 0:09:34.804 --> 0:09:38.204 You've got polls of Ohio that she's probably gonna win Ohio, 0:09:38.244 --> 0:09:40.964 but are closer. You got poles, and you know in Nebraska, 0:09:41.044 --> 0:09:43.964 including the one district where they do reward an electoral vote, 0:09:44.084 --> 0:09:46.004 that have been very good for Harris all year long, 0:09:46.244 --> 0:09:47.604 even a pole and Kansas. 0:09:47.244 --> 0:09:50.724 Showed a single digit race. You know. The thing that 0:09:50.724 --> 0:09:52.844 doesn't make sense is like, if she's doing so. 0:09:52.884 --> 0:09:57.604 Well in Iowa, then why is it tied in Wisconsin. 0:09:57.684 --> 0:10:01.204 You're not gonna have like Wisconsin Harris plus one and 0:10:01.364 --> 0:10:04.324 Iowa Harris plus three. If she wins by three in 0:10:04.604 --> 0:10:07.284 Ioways probably wins by seven in Wisconsin or something at 0:10:07.284 --> 0:10:11.164 a minimum, And so lots of theories about it, but 0:10:11.164 --> 0:10:14.484 but you know, it reassured. At the very least, it 0:10:14.684 --> 0:10:19.124 raises the possibility that polsters who have less guts than 0:10:19.164 --> 0:10:24.524 an Seltzer are terrified to show Harris leads because they're knits, Maria, 0:10:24.724 --> 0:10:28.204 They're fucking knits, and they're terrified of being wrong and 0:10:28.284 --> 0:10:30.884 being criticized because they don't have the fucking guts that 0:10:30.884 --> 0:10:32.924 that we have here on the podcast. 0:10:33.684 --> 0:10:34.324 This is true. 0:10:34.324 --> 0:10:34.724 This is true. 0:10:34.724 --> 0:10:35.324 We're definitely not. 0:10:35.284 --> 0:10:35.964 And they have bad data. 0:10:36.004 --> 0:10:37.364 By the way, if you have bad data, to just 0:10:37.844 --> 0:10:38.964 copy the polling averages. 0:10:39.884 --> 0:10:48.364 But that's absolutely true. So if so, if Seltzer is 0:10:48.364 --> 0:10:51.964 is onto something I'm actually a little bit curious about 0:10:52.004 --> 0:10:54.964 your your take on whether we've been We've been critical 0:10:55.004 --> 0:10:59.444 of her VP pick for for many for many months, 0:10:59.484 --> 0:11:02.124 basically since she made it. Do you think that Walls 0:11:02.244 --> 0:11:05.404 might be helping her a little bit? No, not at all. 0:11:05.844 --> 0:11:11.204 She's Minnesota. That is that is very funny the satur 0:11:11.364 --> 0:11:13.484 Live skit where they couldn't tell it was Tim Walls 0:11:13.564 --> 0:11:15.484 or Tim Kane. I think is all you need to know? 0:11:16.324 --> 0:11:17.164 Is all you need to know? 0:11:17.364 --> 0:11:17.684 All right? 0:11:17.724 --> 0:11:19.364 All right, I just wanted I just wanted to throw 0:11:19.404 --> 0:11:22.044 that out there. But yeah, it seems like ann Seltzer 0:11:22.084 --> 0:11:25.204 has more balls than a lot of the other polsters 0:11:25.244 --> 0:11:29.084 that we're seeing. And uh, and that says something so 0:11:29.284 --> 0:11:31.044 other than that. We had the New York Times Siena 0:11:31.044 --> 0:11:33.444 polls right come out. That is the other thing that 0:11:33.484 --> 0:11:37.364 has uh, that has changed since you and I spoke, 0:11:37.404 --> 0:11:39.884 and those are well, why don't you why don't you 0:11:39.884 --> 0:11:42.924 give us a little bit of an update and how 0:11:43.004 --> 0:11:46.164 that has has that has affected your thinking if at all? 0:11:46.324 --> 0:11:48.604 Because they did their polls of the seven swing states 0:11:48.684 --> 0:11:50.204 right New. 0:11:50.124 --> 0:11:55.844 York Time Sceiena College had shown this unusual divide where 0:11:55.844 --> 0:11:58.724 they had had Harris doing conspicuously well in the Blue 0:11:58.764 --> 0:12:01.004 Wall states. Again, those are in Michigan, Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania, 0:12:01.564 --> 0:12:06.564 and conspicuously badly outside of the blue walls, so North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. 0:12:07.924 --> 0:12:10.684 Those margins tightened a little bit in their final set 0:12:10.724 --> 0:12:15.204 of poles, which could reflect I mean, they don't heard either, 0:12:15.724 --> 0:12:19.564 at least I don't think it could reflect mean reversion, right. 0:12:19.644 --> 0:12:21.644 I mean maybe if you if you burnt all these 0:12:21.644 --> 0:12:23.764 poles and you're honest and you don't heard, you're gonna 0:12:23.764 --> 0:12:28.164 have some results that are are our outliers, and directionally speaking, 0:12:29.644 --> 0:12:31.204 you know, I mean, they still show a wider gap 0:12:31.244 --> 0:12:31.604 in somebody. 0:12:31.604 --> 0:12:32.844 It was a little more scrambled, right. 0:12:32.884 --> 0:12:35.964 It kind of was more that thesis like, yeah, all 0:12:36.004 --> 0:12:40.404 these seven states are are are really close. But in general, 0:12:40.444 --> 0:12:42.884 I think, if you like, in general, they were consistent 0:12:42.924 --> 0:12:47.844 with like a map where Harris probably finds some way 0:12:47.844 --> 0:12:49.204 to win. I think they had her head in like 0:12:49.244 --> 0:12:52.404 North Carolina and Nevada and Michigan, Wisconsin. That's the case 0:12:52.404 --> 0:12:56.324 where actually Nevada would matter in that precise combination. I 0:12:56.364 --> 0:12:59.404 think they also had Pennsylvania as a tie. Roughly, well, 0:12:59.284 --> 0:13:00.684 all these poles, I have had a tie roughly, I 0:13:00.684 --> 0:13:01.564 think they had like an exact DIY. 0:13:01.604 --> 0:13:02.524 It's going for memory here. 0:13:03.804 --> 0:13:08.924 So yeah, Now, look there are other poles. This this 0:13:09.004 --> 0:13:11.964 Brazilian in firm called Atlas Intel, that's highly rated, that's 0:13:12.004 --> 0:13:18.004 had very Trump numbers. National polls have tightened a lot, 0:13:18.084 --> 0:13:19.644 to the point where you would think that would be 0:13:19.684 --> 0:13:21.924 good news for Trump. If he wins or loses a 0:13:21.924 --> 0:13:24.604 popular vote by only a pointer, or wins a popular vote, 0:13:24.644 --> 0:13:29.364 then he probably is gonna win the electoral College. So yeah, 0:13:29.564 --> 0:13:34.964 conflicting data, but I'd say that I mean both the 0:13:35.004 --> 0:13:35.924 model and kind of. 0:13:35.804 --> 0:13:38.924 My subjective subjective take not worth very much. 0:13:39.004 --> 0:13:43.364 Are are you know, more bullish for Harris than they 0:13:43.364 --> 0:13:45.764 were a week ago or two weeks ago, And to 0:13:45.804 --> 0:13:47.644 the point where if you literally gave me a million 0:13:47.684 --> 0:13:50.124 dollar free bet, I'm not sure who had been on, 0:13:50.924 --> 0:13:51.324 I'd be here. 0:13:52.084 --> 0:13:52.524 I'd be here. 0:13:53.284 --> 0:13:55.924 That's interesting because we know that a few a few 0:13:55.924 --> 0:13:58.164 weeks ago that would not have been the case. And 0:13:58.364 --> 0:14:02.924 I you know, from a psychological standpoint, I'm really nervous 0:14:03.084 --> 0:14:06.524 that I am taking the data that I want to 0:14:06.564 --> 0:14:09.644 see because obviously we we know, you know, I'm I'm 0:14:09.724 --> 0:14:12.204 very open that I voted for Harris. I want Harris 0:14:12.244 --> 0:14:14.084 to win. And so when I see this, you know, 0:14:14.124 --> 0:14:17.244 and sells her poll, I'm like, yes, also right, like 0:14:17.284 --> 0:14:20.604 we're seeing yes, absolutely, this means she's going to win. 0:14:20.644 --> 0:14:22.244 This means she's going to win. And I am so 0:14:22.404 --> 0:14:26.044 nervous of that tendency because confirmation bias is real, right, 0:14:26.124 --> 0:14:29.124 and there are people on Trump's on you know, Trump 0:14:29.164 --> 0:14:32.724 supporters who are you know, just as absolutely certain that 0:14:33.284 --> 0:14:35.084 Trump is going to win. And we know that the 0:14:35.084 --> 0:14:38.604 way betting markets work, right, if you're someone's betting against you, 0:14:38.644 --> 0:14:41.764 and both sides always think that they're right, otherwise they 0:14:41.804 --> 0:14:46.004 would not be putting money down. And usually everyone thinks 0:14:46.044 --> 0:14:47.964 that the other person's the dumb money. No one thinks 0:14:47.964 --> 0:14:48.884 that they're the dumb money. 0:14:48.924 --> 0:14:50.884 The betters, by the way, have tightened. 0:14:51.044 --> 0:14:53.964 Also, yeah, let's actually talk about that a little bit 0:14:53.964 --> 0:14:57.404 because poly market and betting markets in general. But Polymarket 0:14:57.444 --> 0:14:59.484 has made the biggest move because poly Market was the 0:14:59.484 --> 0:15:01.924 biggest Trump favorite outlier. 0:15:02.164 --> 0:15:03.124 There are a couple of things here. 0:15:05.684 --> 0:15:08.604 One hypothesis is that this French she was identifies like 0:15:08.644 --> 0:15:12.764 some French guy with sort of midwith opinions like. 0:15:13.124 --> 0:15:15.644 Shy trump boarders, I'm French, the French. 0:15:16.644 --> 0:15:17.724 We need your French accent? 0:15:17.764 --> 0:15:23.964 Where shot swamp filltel? I really French, I really do 0:15:24.044 --> 0:15:25.284 fore it to do regional American? 0:15:25.924 --> 0:15:28.084 All right, fine, let's say where where's the where's our 0:15:28.084 --> 0:15:32.684 French guy from in regional America? All right, let's do it? 0:15:33.324 --> 0:15:35.244 Uh Louisiana? Okay? 0:15:35.524 --> 0:15:38.364 Anyway, But like so, maybe he just ran out of 0:15:38.364 --> 0:15:40.684 money that he's willing to bet. And if if he 0:15:40.764 --> 0:15:43.964 is now put all the money he's willing to invest 0:15:43.964 --> 0:15:45.484 in this bet and kind of capitulate it, then it 0:15:45.564 --> 0:15:47.204 kind of falls to this price floor. And I think 0:15:47.204 --> 0:15:49.204 that's part of what happened, because like the movement in 0:15:49.204 --> 0:15:51.604 polling averages didn't really correlate that well day to day 0:15:52.444 --> 0:15:54.524 with movement in the polls except the Seltzer pole. But 0:15:54.564 --> 0:15:56.604 the Seltzer pole also changes a narrative a lot. And 0:15:56.644 --> 0:15:59.204 so you know, so one story is about this one 0:15:59.244 --> 0:16:02.924 trader who impacted the whole market, right. Another story is 0:16:02.924 --> 0:16:05.124 that you have lots of people making technical trades because 0:16:05.124 --> 0:16:06.844 they think they can read the vibes of the market. 0:16:07.284 --> 0:16:10.284 And then you have a reconciliation close to the elections. 0:16:10.284 --> 0:16:14.084 So if you get Harris cheap, right, maybe you might 0:16:14.164 --> 0:16:17.884 now hedge on some trump but anyway, but it could 0:16:17.884 --> 0:16:20.284 be that you revert to the fundamentals. But they converged. 0:16:20.484 --> 0:16:23.484 The markets converged toward the models and not the other 0:16:23.524 --> 0:16:27.484 way around. And again, I work as a consultant for polymarkets. 0:16:27.604 --> 0:16:31.684 I respect both of these techniques. But I think people 0:16:31.764 --> 0:16:38.004 don't understand that market sentiment is a thing, particularly in. 0:16:40.044 --> 0:16:41.324 Things. Well, I don't know. I guess. 0:16:41.324 --> 0:16:43.324 I guess it's more anchored to some reality than a 0:16:43.364 --> 0:16:46.844 lot of things that are are traded. Right, But market 0:16:46.884 --> 0:16:49.724 sentiment is a thing and becoming more of a thing, 0:16:50.204 --> 0:16:53.724 right when game stop can go rocket one hundred x 0:16:53.804 --> 0:16:57.844 based on no fundamental change whatsoever, right or NFTs or 0:16:57.964 --> 0:17:02.804 or or you know, dj T, Donald John Trump, DJT stock. 0:17:04.364 --> 0:17:04.564 You know. 0:17:04.804 --> 0:17:08.524 Look, and again, as someone who's actively an actual gambler, 0:17:09.124 --> 0:17:13.884 I am understand that rich whales are what make gambling 0:17:13.964 --> 0:17:17.524 profitable for skilled gamblers. They're a very important part of 0:17:17.564 --> 0:17:20.364 the ecosystem. And you have people who are like who 0:17:20.404 --> 0:17:22.804 are like, well, he's putting his money behind it. 0:17:23.084 --> 0:17:24.364 It must be you must know something. 0:17:24.564 --> 0:17:26.964 No, he's probably a fucking idiot, right, an idiot will 0:17:27.004 --> 0:17:28.964 be right. Fifty one percent of the time, so God 0:17:28.964 --> 0:17:31.244 bless him. But like, god, have you ever fucking met 0:17:31.324 --> 0:17:33.684 rich people with like strong political opinions? 0:17:33.804 --> 0:17:34.244 They are not. 0:17:34.444 --> 0:17:36.844 Particularly half and they are they are some of my 0:17:36.924 --> 0:17:38.844 favorite opponents at the poker table. 0:17:38.684 --> 0:17:42.924 And they are great to having your lifestyle right, But 0:17:43.044 --> 0:17:47.844 like they don't they index off these kind of stylized 0:17:47.884 --> 0:17:50.084 truths that are not more accurate, I don't think than 0:17:50.924 --> 0:17:55.124 the models now when there's no information. If you know, 0:17:55.204 --> 0:18:01.044 there's a murder investigation into Kamala Harris's husband that begins tonight, right, 0:18:02.724 --> 0:18:04.524 you know, that won't have time to be reflected in 0:18:04.524 --> 0:18:06.404 the polls, but it will be reflected by prediction markets, 0:18:06.404 --> 0:18:08.364 and so that's quite useful. But like, but they kind 0:18:08.404 --> 0:18:10.724 of believe in these halfways superstitious things, and in any event, 0:18:11.044 --> 0:18:13.284 they've converged toward the models. I mean, there's a slight 0:18:13.324 --> 0:18:16.524 Trump edge in Polly Marker. I think it's you know, 0:18:17.284 --> 0:18:19.764 fifty six forty four or something, but much closer than 0:18:19.804 --> 0:18:21.244 it had been a couple of weeks ago. 0:18:21.884 --> 0:18:24.324 That's very interesting that there's still a Trump edge there. 0:18:24.324 --> 0:18:26.764 And then yet you say that if you were given 0:18:26.764 --> 0:18:28.924 a million dollar free roll, you might actually place it 0:18:28.964 --> 0:18:32.004 on Harris So this is just this is giving me 0:18:32.164 --> 0:18:36.204 and my gambler's mind a little bit of pause to 0:18:36.284 --> 0:18:39.644 try to figure out, you know, what are some arbitrage 0:18:39.724 --> 0:18:45.124 opportunities right now leading into the election. But I'm interested 0:18:46.044 --> 0:18:48.164 to see what will actually happen and how this will 0:18:48.164 --> 0:18:51.364 play out. And given the fact that everything is so close, 0:18:51.724 --> 0:18:56.284 let's pivot a tiny bit and talk about our predictions 0:18:56.844 --> 0:19:01.484 for tomorrow and for whether when we basically think this 0:19:01.604 --> 0:19:05.844 race is going to be done, we'll be back right 0:19:05.884 --> 0:19:21.884 after this. We've obviously had some close elections last election cycle, 0:19:22.804 --> 0:19:25.364 so four years ago, we did not know the outcome 0:19:25.484 --> 0:19:29.844 on election day itself. What do we think, you know, 0:19:30.044 --> 0:19:33.244 if we were, if we were making some predictions, what 0:19:33.284 --> 0:19:35.764 do we think is going to happen this year? Because 0:19:35.804 --> 0:19:39.364 obviously there are some people who are giving just very 0:19:39.524 --> 0:19:43.844 you know, scary civil warlike predictions that you know, no, 0:19:43.844 --> 0:19:45.924 no outcome is going to be accepted, blah blah blah, 0:19:45.964 --> 0:19:48.004 all these all these things are going to happen. People 0:19:48.044 --> 0:19:50.724 are going to not certify. They're all of these what ifs. 0:19:51.404 --> 0:19:54.484 So let's try to talk from a rational, data driven, 0:19:54.524 --> 0:19:57.324 not an emotional perspective, not the things I'm afraid of 0:19:58.044 --> 0:20:00.124 and try to figure out what do we think is 0:20:00.164 --> 0:20:03.684 going to happen tomorrow, What where do the results need 0:20:03.724 --> 0:20:05.244 to be, what do the margins need to be like 0:20:05.324 --> 0:20:08.124 for the result to be kind of definitive within the 0:20:08.164 --> 0:20:10.404 next few days, or or Nate, are you and I 0:20:10.484 --> 0:20:13.084 going to be having this conversation for the next month 0:20:13.324 --> 0:20:16.084 two months to try to figure out who the hell 0:20:16.124 --> 0:20:17.564 won the election and what's happening. 0:20:18.524 --> 0:20:21.684 So, as I think I talked about before, if you 0:20:21.804 --> 0:20:26.684 want a non tense election, then you want to be 0:20:26.764 --> 0:20:29.524 rooting for a polling air. So this is why my 0:20:29.564 --> 0:20:32.804 life sucks either way this nightmare or situation, or you 0:20:32.844 --> 0:20:35.084 have a big polling air because like so, if the 0:20:35.124 --> 0:20:39.764 polls are off consistently in the same direction, then then 0:20:39.764 --> 0:20:41.764 someone could sweep six or seven of the swing states. 0:20:43.324 --> 0:20:46.124 And in that case, then I look, I'm sure that 0:20:46.924 --> 0:20:51.004 Trump would not happily accept defeat unless it's really really bad. 0:20:52.444 --> 0:20:54.924 But yeah, there's a thirty four percent chance that one 0:20:54.964 --> 0:20:56.964 candidate sweeps all the swing states, and like another twenty 0:20:56.964 --> 0:20:59.844 percent chance that it's six or seven in one direction. 0:20:59.924 --> 0:21:01.204 I mean, I've tried to look alonto. 0:21:01.364 --> 0:21:03.324 By the way, those are pretty high percentages. Thirty four 0:21:03.364 --> 0:21:04.764