1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,404 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,444 --> 00:00:30,044 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 3 00:00:29,684 --> 00:00:32,244 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Do we even need a script? 4 00:00:32,244 --> 00:00:34,044 Speaker 2: For today? We're talking about the election, right. 5 00:00:34,484 --> 00:00:38,844 Speaker 1: We are, and today is Monday, November fourth, and so 6 00:00:38,884 --> 00:00:41,964 Speaker 1: today we will be This is an extra special episode 7 00:00:42,684 --> 00:00:45,044 Speaker 1: of Risky Business. We don't usually drop on Mondays, but 8 00:00:45,124 --> 00:00:47,564 Speaker 1: here we are recording and dropping on the same day 9 00:00:47,684 --> 00:00:51,444 Speaker 1: to bring you what we know and hope and fear 10 00:00:51,724 --> 00:00:56,244 Speaker 1: and just state of the world less than twenty four 11 00:00:56,284 --> 00:01:06,844 Speaker 1: hours away from election day. Yeah, it's exciting. Nate. What 12 00:01:06,884 --> 00:01:08,644 Speaker 1: are your plans for today and for tomorrow? 13 00:01:09,564 --> 00:01:14,124 Speaker 3: So for today there are things that are extremely high 14 00:01:14,164 --> 00:01:20,124 Speaker 3: priority and things that are medium high priority. Today, at midnight, 15 00:01:20,524 --> 00:01:22,804 Speaker 3: we will run the model for the last time, and 16 00:01:22,844 --> 00:01:25,364 Speaker 3: I'll publish kind of my big last overview of the race. 17 00:01:25,404 --> 00:01:27,644 Speaker 3: So I'm starting to write that in my head. 18 00:01:27,684 --> 00:01:28,484 Speaker 2: I haven't put. 19 00:01:28,924 --> 00:01:32,124 Speaker 3: Keys to our fingers to keys quite yet. We also 20 00:01:32,164 --> 00:01:35,684 Speaker 3: have an election night model for Silver Bulletin readers that 21 00:01:35,844 --> 00:01:40,884 Speaker 3: I think is kind of cool. It relies on which 22 00:01:40,884 --> 00:01:44,644 Speaker 3: states have been called by the networks, because we didn't 23 00:01:44,644 --> 00:01:49,804 Speaker 3: want to have to estimate vote shares individually. Right, we 24 00:01:49,804 --> 00:01:51,644 Speaker 3: don't want to have to get too cute and we're busy. 25 00:01:51,684 --> 00:01:55,004 Speaker 3: We're just two people, Eli and I. But I'll figured 26 00:01:55,044 --> 00:01:56,844 Speaker 3: out that you can get a lot of information from 27 00:01:56,844 --> 00:02:00,204 Speaker 3: like when a state is called. If Florida, probably a 28 00:02:00,204 --> 00:02:03,204 Speaker 3: Trump state is called early for Trump accounts, it's both 29 00:02:03,204 --> 00:02:07,124 Speaker 3: fast that reveals much more information than if it takes 30 00:02:07,204 --> 00:02:09,404 Speaker 3: a while, and it's kind of closed, which, even though 31 00:02:09,404 --> 00:02:13,284 Speaker 3: Trump might win, is kind of potentially maybe even vaguely 32 00:02:13,324 --> 00:02:16,764 Speaker 3: okay for Harris. If Florida is not called until eleven PM, 33 00:02:16,844 --> 00:02:18,924 Speaker 3: that means probably Trump wins by only a couple of points, 34 00:02:18,964 --> 00:02:21,444 Speaker 3: which means that Harris will performing her polls. So the 35 00:02:21,484 --> 00:02:24,804 Speaker 3: model can now account for the timing of calls as 36 00:02:24,844 --> 00:02:26,444 Speaker 3: well as which state remains uncalled. 37 00:02:26,884 --> 00:02:28,084 Speaker 2: I think it's pretty cool. Product. 38 00:02:28,404 --> 00:02:30,084 Speaker 3: I have like three more hours of work to do 39 00:02:30,124 --> 00:02:30,764 Speaker 3: on that product. 40 00:02:31,524 --> 00:02:35,044 Speaker 1: No, that is pretty cool. Yeah, no, I didn't really 41 00:02:35,084 --> 00:02:36,644 Speaker 1: think about that. But of course there is a ton 42 00:02:36,684 --> 00:02:39,964 Speaker 1: of information in things like that which can be more 43 00:02:40,044 --> 00:02:43,124 Speaker 1: bullish or more bearish for either of the candidates. So 44 00:02:43,164 --> 00:02:45,484 Speaker 1: I'm excited to see how that plays out in real time. 45 00:02:45,884 --> 00:02:48,404 Speaker 1: So before we get into kind of the nitty gritty 46 00:02:48,884 --> 00:02:50,644 Speaker 1: and some of the big polls and big news that 47 00:02:50,684 --> 00:02:53,604 Speaker 1: have come out since we lost spoke La last week. 48 00:02:54,204 --> 00:02:56,124 Speaker 1: What is your thought on kind of where we are 49 00:02:56,204 --> 00:02:59,484 Speaker 1: right now? Let's get like a big picture overview, you know, 50 00:02:59,564 --> 00:03:02,484 Speaker 1: one day to go before the election. Where do we stand? 51 00:03:02,524 --> 00:03:03,404 Speaker 1: Where does the ray stand? 52 00:03:03,884 --> 00:03:06,364 Speaker 3: So the big picture, and we'll get into the medium 53 00:03:06,364 --> 00:03:09,004 Speaker 3: sized picture in a moment. The big picture is that 54 00:03:09,084 --> 00:03:12,404 Speaker 3: it's an extremely close election in the polls. That does 55 00:03:12,444 --> 00:03:16,444 Speaker 3: not necessarily guarantee it will be a close election. In reality, 56 00:03:16,484 --> 00:03:18,044 Speaker 3: the polls could be way off out the direction, and 57 00:03:18,084 --> 00:03:20,804 Speaker 3: I've been getting more worried about that in both directions 58 00:03:20,844 --> 00:03:24,124 Speaker 3: for various reasons recently. But you know, we've never had 59 00:03:24,164 --> 00:03:27,884 Speaker 3: a presidential election this close to fifty to fifty. Literally, 60 00:03:27,924 --> 00:03:30,644 Speaker 3: our last model run had Trump at fifty point Let 61 00:03:30,644 --> 00:03:33,044 Speaker 3: me look at the exact numbers, just so I'm not 62 00:03:33,364 --> 00:03:38,444 Speaker 3: misquoting myself, and Harris at forty nine point scroll down, page, 63 00:03:38,484 --> 00:03:43,564 Speaker 3: scroll down, scroll down, Brood forty nine point two percent, 64 00:03:43,724 --> 00:03:47,284 Speaker 3: Trump at fifty point four percent, and no majority meaning 65 00:03:47,284 --> 00:03:49,444 Speaker 3: a tie which probably gets resolved for Trump by the way, 66 00:03:49,884 --> 00:03:52,484 Speaker 3: at zero point four percent. So I literally do not 67 00:03:52,724 --> 00:03:55,524 Speaker 3: know who's going to be ahead. In the last model 68 00:03:55,564 --> 00:03:59,644 Speaker 3: run we published after midnight tonight. That is Harris's best 69 00:03:59,724 --> 00:04:02,164 Speaker 3: number in two and a half weeks. At the same time, 70 00:04:02,204 --> 00:04:04,764 Speaker 3: the forecast has spent the last six or seven weeks 71 00:04:05,164 --> 00:04:06,964 Speaker 3: in the range we call a tass up within the 72 00:04:07,044 --> 00:04:08,124 Speaker 3: range of sixty to forty. 73 00:04:08,124 --> 00:04:08,764 Speaker 2: You now the direction. 74 00:04:09,124 --> 00:04:11,484 Speaker 3: It's rarely fallen outside of that range. 75 00:04:11,524 --> 00:04:12,324 Speaker 2: We've never gone. 76 00:04:12,164 --> 00:04:14,484 Speaker 3: Outside that sixty forty range at almost any point, just 77 00:04:14,484 --> 00:04:18,164 Speaker 3: for a few days for Harris after her convention she 78 00:04:18,164 --> 00:04:20,604 Speaker 3: was below of forty percent. But like so, it's the 79 00:04:20,644 --> 00:04:25,364 Speaker 3: same variation. There are these seven swing states. She at 80 00:04:25,364 --> 00:04:27,244 Speaker 3: this point seems to be doing a little bit better 81 00:04:27,484 --> 00:04:30,804 Speaker 3: in the Blue Wall states in particular Michigan and Wisconsin, 82 00:04:30,924 --> 00:04:32,964 Speaker 3: less so in Pennsylvania. But that's kind of a pure 83 00:04:33,004 --> 00:04:38,564 Speaker 3: tie and has kept a North Carolina and Georgia quite competitive. 84 00:04:38,604 --> 00:04:40,404 Speaker 3: But if you squint, you see maybe a Trump lead 85 00:04:40,444 --> 00:04:42,844 Speaker 3: of one point. No one can agree on Nevada except 86 00:04:42,884 --> 00:04:46,444 Speaker 3: to say that we don't know anything about Nevada. Arizona 87 00:04:46,884 --> 00:04:49,124 Speaker 3: is the one state that seems like the safest bet 88 00:04:49,124 --> 00:04:53,764 Speaker 3: for Trump, although although Maria, there was a poll of 89 00:04:53,804 --> 00:04:58,644 Speaker 3: Latino voters out today that showed Harris ahead, and it 90 00:04:58,764 --> 00:05:01,564 Speaker 3: survey just I think it was Telemundo or Univision. 91 00:05:01,684 --> 00:05:02,764 Speaker 2: I can't one of. 92 00:05:02,684 --> 00:05:07,524 Speaker 3: Those major networks that had Harris winning Latinos by thirty 93 00:05:07,524 --> 00:05:09,684 Speaker 3: two points in a large sample of Latinos or something 94 00:05:09,724 --> 00:05:12,844 Speaker 3: the range of thirty two points, which would be a 95 00:05:12,884 --> 00:05:16,204 Speaker 3: total reversal of earlier poland that showed her doing worse 96 00:05:16,244 --> 00:05:20,684 Speaker 3: than typical Democratic margins among the Hispanic population. And you 97 00:05:20,684 --> 00:05:23,764 Speaker 3: have this plausible cause where Trump had this rally where 98 00:05:24,884 --> 00:05:27,324 Speaker 3: one of the warm up speakers made offensive comments about 99 00:05:27,564 --> 00:05:32,524 Speaker 3: Puerto Ricans, and all these Latino pop stars endorsed Harris, 100 00:05:33,724 --> 00:05:34,364 Speaker 3: and that would. 101 00:05:34,124 --> 00:05:34,564 Speaker 2: Be a big deal. 102 00:05:34,604 --> 00:05:37,364 Speaker 3: I mean, that's when you might get you know, in 103 00:05:37,404 --> 00:05:41,524 Speaker 3: particular Arizona, Nevada finishing for Harris a little bit than 104 00:05:41,524 --> 00:05:45,124 Speaker 3: the polls might suggest. By the way, there are a 105 00:05:45,124 --> 00:05:48,404 Speaker 3: lot of Puerto Ricans in eastern Pennsylvania. There are some 106 00:05:48,484 --> 00:05:53,804 Speaker 3: counties in Pennsylvania where eleven percent of the population is 107 00:05:54,364 --> 00:05:55,004 Speaker 3: Puerto Rican. 108 00:05:57,404 --> 00:05:59,804 Speaker 2: That could be important in. 109 00:05:59,884 --> 00:06:01,964 Speaker 3: A race that could come down to one or two 110 00:06:02,004 --> 00:06:03,444 Speaker 3: counties in Pennsylvania. 111 00:06:04,284 --> 00:06:07,764 Speaker 2: And so I don't know, we. 112 00:06:07,684 --> 00:06:10,364 Speaker 1: Talked about it last week bad but any matters people 113 00:06:10,604 --> 00:06:11,884 Speaker 1: that matter. 114 00:06:12,484 --> 00:06:14,644 Speaker 3: Well, I also worry that, like, look, there's not a 115 00:06:14,764 --> 00:06:17,044 Speaker 3: huge change in the race. There's also some data that 116 00:06:17,084 --> 00:06:20,124 Speaker 3: Harris is doing well with people who decided late in 117 00:06:20,124 --> 00:06:23,564 Speaker 3: the race over the past week. You know, I mean, 118 00:06:23,564 --> 00:06:25,804 Speaker 3: I wish, despite wanting to get some sleep and having 119 00:06:25,844 --> 00:06:28,244 Speaker 3: this fucking thing be over with, I wish that uh, 120 00:06:29,044 --> 00:06:31,524 Speaker 3: we had like three more days of polling, or that 121 00:06:31,564 --> 00:06:33,684 Speaker 3: we had polsters that were pulling this week in because 122 00:06:33,764 --> 00:06:36,124 Speaker 3: like you can kind of see the makings of a 123 00:06:36,164 --> 00:06:40,764 Speaker 3: trend toward Harris. It's not so clear that it isn't 124 00:06:40,844 --> 00:06:43,924 Speaker 3: just noise. A lot of polsters, by the way, are 125 00:06:44,284 --> 00:06:45,444 Speaker 3: it's got picked up last. 126 00:06:45,244 --> 00:06:45,884 Speaker 2: Week, are hurting. 127 00:06:45,924 --> 00:06:49,244 Speaker 3: They're just kind of literally matching the polling averages exactly 128 00:06:49,284 --> 00:06:49,924 Speaker 3: in every state. 129 00:06:51,924 --> 00:06:52,164 Speaker 2: You know. 130 00:06:52,404 --> 00:06:55,884 Speaker 3: But the independent data points like this pull latinos. 131 00:06:56,284 --> 00:06:56,924 Speaker 2: The last seve New. 132 00:06:56,924 --> 00:06:59,684 Speaker 3: York Times polls were pretty good for har It's not fantastic, 133 00:07:00,244 --> 00:07:05,004 Speaker 3: you know, consistent with tilt Harris race. Also some poles 134 00:07:05,004 --> 00:07:06,604 Speaker 3: that were good for Trump. Right, I mean, the forecast 135 00:07:06,684 --> 00:07:09,924 Speaker 3: is like literally fifty to fifty. Now she talked about 136 00:07:09,924 --> 00:07:10,484 Speaker 3: the Seltzer poll. 137 00:07:10,964 --> 00:07:13,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it. So let's first set this up 138 00:07:14,044 --> 00:07:17,924 Speaker 1: for people who don't obsessively follow polls. So the Seltzer poll, 139 00:07:18,084 --> 00:07:21,084 Speaker 1: one of the most high quality polls that exists and 140 00:07:21,164 --> 00:07:23,684 Speaker 1: something that people really pay attention to. Nate, do you 141 00:07:23,724 --> 00:07:25,444 Speaker 1: want to just give us like a little bit of 142 00:07:25,484 --> 00:07:27,764 Speaker 1: an overview why her poll matters and kind of what 143 00:07:28,604 --> 00:07:32,044 Speaker 1: this means and why it's important that this poll dropped 144 00:07:32,244 --> 00:07:37,244 Speaker 1: just right now and is actually giving information that is 145 00:07:37,564 --> 00:07:39,564 Speaker 1: contrary to two prior polls in the state. 146 00:07:40,804 --> 00:07:44,604 Speaker 3: So and Seltzer is the one polster that kind of 147 00:07:44,644 --> 00:07:48,364 Speaker 3: doesn't have egg on her face. She has repeatedly defied 148 00:07:48,364 --> 00:07:51,284 Speaker 3: the conventional wisdom and bean correct I remember in two 149 00:07:51,324 --> 00:07:55,244 Speaker 3: thousand and eight she had Barack Obama winning the Iowa 150 00:07:55,324 --> 00:07:56,524 Speaker 3: caucuses by a large margin. 151 00:07:56,524 --> 00:07:58,564 Speaker 2: People didn't believe it, and he did so. 152 00:08:00,284 --> 00:08:05,484 Speaker 3: In June and Seltzer has a poll showing Biden trailing 153 00:08:05,564 --> 00:08:11,004 Speaker 3: Trump by eighteen points even a by the way, eighteen 154 00:08:11,044 --> 00:08:15,244 Speaker 3: points is epic landslide. And she has an old school poster. 155 00:08:15,244 --> 00:08:17,644 Speaker 3: She doesn't do this hurting crap. She's not afraid to 156 00:08:17,804 --> 00:08:20,404 Speaker 3: let her data speak for itself. In September, she has 157 00:08:20,404 --> 00:08:23,764 Speaker 3: a poll showing Kamala Harris trailing Trump, but by only 158 00:08:23,884 --> 00:08:26,564 Speaker 3: four points in Iowa. People are like, oh, it's an outliner. 159 00:08:26,644 --> 00:08:30,004 Speaker 3: Kind of interesting, kind of interesting. I think Biden lost 160 00:08:30,084 --> 00:08:33,884 Speaker 3: Iowa by eight points in twenty and twenty, so she 161 00:08:33,924 --> 00:08:37,084 Speaker 3: had her finer pull out on Saturday night. I had 162 00:08:37,084 --> 00:08:39,164 Speaker 3: plans on Saturday which were canceled because of this poll. 163 00:08:40,364 --> 00:08:44,484 Speaker 3: I'm okay, it'll probably show Trump plus six, a little 164 00:08:44,484 --> 00:08:48,444 Speaker 3: bit better for Harris, and the priors might be, but 165 00:08:48,724 --> 00:08:51,564 Speaker 3: you know whatever, we know Trump's gonna win Iowa instead. 166 00:08:51,844 --> 00:08:57,764 Speaker 3: The number is Harris plus three, the state that Democrats 167 00:08:57,804 --> 00:09:00,004 Speaker 3: lost by nine points in twenty eight nine points in 168 00:09:00,044 --> 00:09:03,044 Speaker 3: twenty twenty, Harris has had by three points. Now, look, 169 00:09:03,564 --> 00:09:05,284 Speaker 3: these poles have a margin of error. If you actually 170 00:09:05,364 --> 00:09:08,284 Speaker 3: calculate this out diligently like I do, the real margin 171 00:09:08,364 --> 00:09:10,604 Speaker 3: could be Trump plus three, or for that matter, Harris 172 00:09:10,604 --> 00:09:11,964 Speaker 3: plus nine or whatever. 173 00:09:12,084 --> 00:09:13,284 Speaker 2: I think that's pretty unlikely. 174 00:09:14,644 --> 00:09:18,644 Speaker 3: But this is an epistemologically important data point because Anne 175 00:09:18,684 --> 00:09:23,924 Speaker 3: Selter doesn't follow the herd. One of the few independent 176 00:09:23,924 --> 00:09:27,884 Speaker 3: pieces of information that you get. And there's kind of 177 00:09:27,924 --> 00:09:31,124 Speaker 3: a story of like Paris getting some surprisingly good polls 178 00:09:31,684 --> 00:09:34,724 Speaker 3: in this kind of prairie part of the Midwest. Right, 179 00:09:34,804 --> 00:09:38,204 Speaker 3: You've got polls of Ohio that she's probably gonna win Ohio, 180 00:09:38,244 --> 00:09:40,964 Speaker 3: but are closer. You got poles, and you know in Nebraska, 181 00:09:41,044 --> 00:09:43,964 Speaker 3: including the one district where they do reward an electoral vote, 182 00:09:44,084 --> 00:09:46,004 Speaker 3: that have been very good for Harris all year long, 183 00:09:46,244 --> 00:09:47,604 Speaker 3: even a pole and Kansas. 184 00:09:47,244 --> 00:09:50,724 Speaker 2: Showed a single digit race. You know. The thing that 185 00:09:50,724 --> 00:09:52,844 Speaker 2: doesn't make sense is like, if she's doing so. 186 00:09:52,884 --> 00:09:57,604 Speaker 3: Well in Iowa, then why is it tied in Wisconsin. 187 00:09:57,684 --> 00:10:01,204 Speaker 3: You're not gonna have like Wisconsin Harris plus one and 188 00:10:01,364 --> 00:10:04,324 Speaker 3: Iowa Harris plus three. If she wins by three in 189 00:10:04,604 --> 00:10:07,284 Speaker 3: Ioways probably wins by seven in Wisconsin or something at 190 00:10:07,284 --> 00:10:11,164 Speaker 3: a minimum, And so lots of theories about it, but 191 00:10:11,164 --> 00:10:14,484 Speaker 3: but you know, it reassured. At the very least, it 192 00:10:14,684 --> 00:10:19,124 Speaker 3: raises the possibility that polsters who have less guts than 193 00:10:19,164 --> 00:10:24,524 Speaker 3: an Seltzer are terrified to show Harris leads because they're knits, Maria, 194 00:10:24,724 --> 00:10:28,204 Speaker 3: They're fucking knits, and they're terrified of being wrong and 195 00:10:28,284 --> 00:10:30,884 Speaker 3: being criticized because they don't have the fucking guts that 196 00:10:30,884 --> 00:10:32,924 Speaker 3: that we have here on the podcast. 197 00:10:33,684 --> 00:10:34,324 Speaker 1: This is true. 198 00:10:34,324 --> 00:10:34,724 Speaker 2: This is true. 199 00:10:34,724 --> 00:10:35,324 Speaker 1: We're definitely not. 200 00:10:35,284 --> 00:10:35,964 Speaker 2: And they have bad data. 201 00:10:36,004 --> 00:10:37,364 Speaker 3: By the way, if you have bad data, to just 202 00:10:37,844 --> 00:10:38,964 Speaker 3: copy the polling averages. 203 00:10:39,884 --> 00:10:48,364 Speaker 1: But that's absolutely true. So if so, if Seltzer is 204 00:10:48,364 --> 00:10:51,964 Speaker 1: is onto something I'm actually a little bit curious about 205 00:10:52,004 --> 00:10:54,964 Speaker 1: your your take on whether we've been We've been critical 206 00:10:55,004 --> 00:10:59,444 Speaker 1: of her VP pick for for many for many months, 207 00:10:59,484 --> 00:11:02,124 Speaker 1: basically since she made it. Do you think that Walls 208 00:11:02,244 --> 00:11:05,404 Speaker 1: might be helping her a little bit? No, not at all. 209 00:11:05,844 --> 00:11:11,204 Speaker 2: She's Minnesota. That is that is very funny the satur 210 00:11:11,364 --> 00:11:13,484 Speaker 2: Live skit where they couldn't tell it was Tim Walls 211 00:11:13,564 --> 00:11:15,484 Speaker 2: or Tim Kane. I think is all you need to know? 212 00:11:16,324 --> 00:11:17,164 Speaker 1: Is all you need to know? 213 00:11:17,364 --> 00:11:17,684 Speaker 2: All right? 214 00:11:17,724 --> 00:11:19,364 Speaker 1: All right, I just wanted I just wanted to throw 215 00:11:19,404 --> 00:11:22,044 Speaker 1: that out there. But yeah, it seems like ann Seltzer 216 00:11:22,084 --> 00:11:25,204 Speaker 1: has more balls than a lot of the other polsters 217 00:11:25,244 --> 00:11:29,084 Speaker 1: that we're seeing. And uh, and that says something so 218 00:11:29,284 --> 00:11:31,044 Speaker 1: other than that. We had the New York Times Siena 219 00:11:31,044 --> 00:11:33,444 Speaker 1: polls right come out. That is the other thing that 220 00:11:33,484 --> 00:11:37,364 Speaker 1: has uh, that has changed since you and I spoke, 221 00:11:37,404 --> 00:11:39,884 Speaker 1: and those are well, why don't you why don't you 222 00:11:39,884 --> 00:11:42,924 Speaker 1: give us a little bit of an update and how 223 00:11:43,004 --> 00:11:46,164 Speaker 1: that has has that has affected your thinking if at all? 224 00:11:46,324 --> 00:11:48,604 Speaker 1: Because they did their polls of the seven swing states 225 00:11:48,684 --> 00:11:50,204 Speaker 1: right New. 226 00:11:50,124 --> 00:11:55,844 Speaker 3: York Time Sceiena College had shown this unusual divide where 227 00:11:55,844 --> 00:11:58,724 Speaker 3: they had had Harris doing conspicuously well in the Blue 228 00:11:58,764 --> 00:12:01,004 Speaker 3: Wall states. Again, those are in Michigan, Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania, 229 00:12:01,564 --> 00:12:06,564 Speaker 3: and conspicuously badly outside of the blue walls, so North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. 230 00:12:07,924 --> 00:12:10,684 Speaker 3: Those margins tightened a little bit in their final set 231 00:12:10,724 --> 00:12:15,204 Speaker 3: of poles, which could reflect I mean, they don't heard either, 232 00:12:15,724 --> 00:12:19,564 Speaker 3: at least I don't think it could reflect mean reversion, right. 233 00:12:19,644 --> 00:12:21,644 Speaker 3: I mean maybe if you if you burnt all these 234 00:12:21,644 --> 00:12:23,764 Speaker 3: poles and you're honest and you don't heard, you're gonna 235 00:12:23,764 --> 00:12:28,164 Speaker 3: have some results that are are our outliers, and directionally speaking, 236 00:12:29,644 --> 00:12:31,204 Speaker 3: you know, I mean, they still show a wider gap 237 00:12:31,244 --> 00:12:31,604 Speaker 3: in somebody. 238 00:12:31,604 --> 00:12:32,844 Speaker 2: It was a little more scrambled, right. 239 00:12:32,884 --> 00:12:35,964 Speaker 3: It kind of was more that thesis like, yeah, all 240 00:12:36,004 --> 00:12:40,404 Speaker 3: these seven states are are are really close. But in general, 241 00:12:40,444 --> 00:12:42,884 Speaker 3: I think, if you like, in general, they were consistent 242 00:12:42,924 --> 00:12:47,844 Speaker 3: with like a map where Harris probably finds some way 243 00:12:47,844 --> 00:12:49,204 Speaker 3: to win. I think they had her head in like 244 00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:52,404 Speaker 3: North Carolina and Nevada and Michigan, Wisconsin. That's the case 245 00:12:52,404 --> 00:12:56,324 Speaker 3: where actually Nevada would matter in that precise combination. I 246 00:12:56,364 --> 00:12:59,404 Speaker 3: think they also had Pennsylvania as a tie. Roughly, well, 247 00:12:59,284 --> 00:13:00,684 Speaker 3: all these poles, I have had a tie roughly, I 248 00:13:00,684 --> 00:13:01,564 Speaker 3: think they had like an exact DIY. 249 00:13:01,604 --> 00:13:02,524 Speaker 2: It's going for memory here. 250 00:13:03,804 --> 00:13:08,924 Speaker 3: So yeah, Now, look there are other poles. This this 251 00:13:09,004 --> 00:13:11,964 Speaker 3: Brazilian in firm called Atlas Intel, that's highly rated, that's 252 00:13:12,004 --> 00:13:18,004 Speaker 3: had very Trump numbers. National polls have tightened a lot, 253 00:13:18,084 --> 00:13:19,644 Speaker 3: to the point where you would think that would be 254 00:13:19,684 --> 00:13:21,924 Speaker 3: good news for Trump. If he wins or loses a 255 00:13:21,924 --> 00:13:24,604 Speaker 3: popular vote by only a pointer, or wins a popular vote, 256 00:13:24,644 --> 00:13:29,364 Speaker 3: then he probably is gonna win the electoral College. So yeah, 257 00:13:29,564 --> 00:13:34,964 Speaker 3: conflicting data, but I'd say that I mean both the 258 00:13:35,004 --> 00:13:35,924 Speaker 3: model and kind of. 259 00:13:35,804 --> 00:13:38,924 Speaker 2: My subjective subjective take not worth very much. 260 00:13:39,004 --> 00:13:43,364 Speaker 3: Are are you know, more bullish for Harris than they 261 00:13:43,364 --> 00:13:45,764 Speaker 3: were a week ago or two weeks ago, And to 262 00:13:45,804 --> 00:13:47,644 Speaker 3: the point where if you literally gave me a million 263 00:13:47,684 --> 00:13:50,124 Speaker 3: dollar free bet, I'm not sure who had been on, 264 00:13:50,924 --> 00:13:51,324 Speaker 3: I'd be here. 265 00:13:52,084 --> 00:13:52,524 Speaker 2: I'd be here. 266 00:13:53,284 --> 00:13:55,924 Speaker 1: That's interesting because we know that a few a few 267 00:13:55,924 --> 00:13:58,164 Speaker 1: weeks ago that would not have been the case. And 268 00:13:58,364 --> 00:14:02,924 Speaker 1: I you know, from a psychological standpoint, I'm really nervous 269 00:14:03,084 --> 00:14:06,524 Speaker 1: that I am taking the data that I want to 270 00:14:06,564 --> 00:14:09,644 Speaker 1: see because obviously we we know, you know, I'm I'm 271 00:14:09,724 --> 00:14:12,204 Speaker 1: very open that I voted for Harris. I want Harris 272 00:14:12,244 --> 00:14:14,084 Speaker 1: to win. And so when I see this, you know, 273 00:14:14,124 --> 00:14:17,244 Speaker 1: and sells her poll, I'm like, yes, also right, like 274 00:14:17,284 --> 00:14:20,604 Speaker 1: we're seeing yes, absolutely, this means she's going to win. 275 00:14:20,644 --> 00:14:22,244 Speaker 1: This means she's going to win. And I am so 276 00:14:22,404 --> 00:14:26,044 Speaker 1: nervous of that tendency because confirmation bias is real, right, 277 00:14:26,124 --> 00:14:29,124 Speaker 1: and there are people on Trump's on you know, Trump 278 00:14:29,164 --> 00:14:32,724 Speaker 1: supporters who are you know, just as absolutely certain that 279 00:14:33,284 --> 00:14:35,084 Speaker 1: Trump is going to win. And we know that the 280 00:14:35,084 --> 00:14:38,604 Speaker 1: way betting markets work, right, if you're someone's betting against you, 281 00:14:38,644 --> 00:14:41,764 Speaker 1: and both sides always think that they're right, otherwise they 282 00:14:41,804 --> 00:14:46,004 Speaker 1: would not be putting money down. And usually everyone thinks 283 00:14:46,044 --> 00:14:47,964 Speaker 1: that the other person's the dumb money. No one thinks 284 00:14:47,964 --> 00:14:48,884 Speaker 1: that they're the dumb money. 285 00:14:48,924 --> 00:14:50,884 Speaker 3: The betters, by the way, have tightened. 286 00:14:51,044 --> 00:14:53,964 Speaker 1: Also, yeah, let's actually talk about that a little bit 287 00:14:53,964 --> 00:14:57,404 Speaker 1: because poly market and betting markets in general. But Polymarket 288 00:14:57,444 --> 00:14:59,484 Speaker 1: has made the biggest move because poly Market was the 289 00:14:59,484 --> 00:15:01,924 Speaker 1: biggest Trump favorite outlier. 290 00:15:02,164 --> 00:15:03,124 Speaker 2: There are a couple of things here. 291 00:15:05,684 --> 00:15:08,604 Speaker 3: One hypothesis is that this French she was identifies like 292 00:15:08,644 --> 00:15:12,764 Speaker 3: some French guy with sort of midwith opinions like. 293 00:15:13,124 --> 00:15:15,644 Speaker 2: Shy trump boarders, I'm French, the French. 294 00:15:16,644 --> 00:15:17,724 Speaker 1: We need your French accent? 295 00:15:17,764 --> 00:15:23,964 Speaker 3: Where shot swamp filltel? I really French, I really do 296 00:15:24,044 --> 00:15:25,284 Speaker 3: fore it to do regional American? 297 00:15:25,924 --> 00:15:28,084 Speaker 1: All right, fine, let's say where where's the where's our 298 00:15:28,084 --> 00:15:32,684 Speaker 1: French guy from in regional America? All right, let's do it? 299 00:15:33,324 --> 00:15:35,244 Speaker 2: Uh Louisiana? Okay? 300 00:15:35,524 --> 00:15:38,364 Speaker 3: Anyway, But like so, maybe he just ran out of 301 00:15:38,364 --> 00:15:40,684 Speaker 3: money that he's willing to bet. And if if he 302 00:15:40,764 --> 00:15:43,964 Speaker 3: is now put all the money he's willing to invest 303 00:15:43,964 --> 00:15:45,484 Speaker 3: in this bet and kind of capitulate it, then it 304 00:15:45,564 --> 00:15:47,204 Speaker 3: kind of falls to this price floor. And I think 305 00:15:47,204 --> 00:15:49,204 Speaker 3: that's part of what happened, because like the movement in 306 00:15:49,204 --> 00:15:51,604 Speaker 3: polling averages didn't really correlate that well day to day 307 00:15:52,444 --> 00:15:54,524 Speaker 3: with movement in the polls except the Seltzer pole. But 308 00:15:54,564 --> 00:15:56,604 Speaker 3: the Seltzer pole also changes a narrative a lot. And 309 00:15:56,644 --> 00:15:59,204 Speaker 3: so you know, so one story is about this one 310 00:15:59,244 --> 00:16:02,924 Speaker 3: trader who impacted the whole market, right. Another story is 311 00:16:02,924 --> 00:16:05,124 Speaker 3: that you have lots of people making technical trades because 312 00:16:05,124 --> 00:16:06,844 Speaker 3: they think they can read the vibes of the market. 313 00:16:07,284 --> 00:16:10,284 Speaker 3: And then you have a reconciliation close to the elections. 314 00:16:10,284 --> 00:16:14,084 Speaker 3: So if you get Harris cheap, right, maybe you might 315 00:16:14,164 --> 00:16:17,884 Speaker 3: now hedge on some trump but anyway, but it could 316 00:16:17,884 --> 00:16:20,284 Speaker 3: be that you revert to the fundamentals. But they converged. 317 00:16:20,484 --> 00:16:23,484 Speaker 3: The markets converged toward the models and not the other 318 00:16:23,524 --> 00:16:27,484 Speaker 3: way around. And again, I work as a consultant for polymarkets. 319 00:16:27,604 --> 00:16:31,684 Speaker 3: I respect both of these techniques. But I think people 320 00:16:31,764 --> 00:16:38,004 Speaker 3: don't understand that market sentiment is a thing, particularly in. 321 00:16:40,044 --> 00:16:41,324 Speaker 2: Things. Well, I don't know. I guess. 322 00:16:41,324 --> 00:16:43,324 Speaker 3: I guess it's more anchored to some reality than a 323 00:16:43,364 --> 00:16:46,844 Speaker 3: lot of things that are are traded. Right, But market 324 00:16:46,884 --> 00:16:49,724 Speaker 3: sentiment is a thing and becoming more of a thing, 325 00:16:50,204 --> 00:16:53,724 Speaker 3: right when game stop can go rocket one hundred x 326 00:16:53,804 --> 00:16:57,844 Speaker 3: based on no fundamental change whatsoever, right or NFTs or 327 00:16:57,964 --> 00:17:02,804 Speaker 3: or or you know, dj T, Donald John Trump, DJT stock. 328 00:17:04,364 --> 00:17:04,564 Speaker 2: You know. 329 00:17:04,804 --> 00:17:08,524 Speaker 3: Look, and again, as someone who's actively an actual gambler, 330 00:17:09,124 --> 00:17:13,884 Speaker 3: I am understand that rich whales are what make gambling 331 00:17:13,964 --> 00:17:17,524 Speaker 3: profitable for skilled gamblers. They're a very important part of 332 00:17:17,564 --> 00:17:20,364 Speaker 3: the ecosystem. And you have people who are like who 333 00:17:20,404 --> 00:17:22,804 Speaker 3: are like, well, he's putting his money behind it. 334 00:17:23,084 --> 00:17:24,364 Speaker 2: It must be you must know something. 335 00:17:24,564 --> 00:17:26,964 Speaker 3: No, he's probably a fucking idiot, right, an idiot will 336 00:17:27,004 --> 00:17:28,964 Speaker 3: be right. Fifty one percent of the time, so God 337 00:17:28,964 --> 00:17:31,244 Speaker 3: bless him. But like, god, have you ever fucking met 338 00:17:31,324 --> 00:17:33,684 Speaker 3: rich people with like strong political opinions? 339 00:17:33,804 --> 00:17:34,244 Speaker 2: They are not. 340 00:17:34,444 --> 00:17:36,844 Speaker 1: Particularly half and they are they are some of my 341 00:17:36,924 --> 00:17:38,844 Speaker 1: favorite opponents at the poker table. 342 00:17:38,684 --> 00:17:42,924 Speaker 3: And they are great to having your lifestyle right, But 343 00:17:43,044 --> 00:17:47,844 Speaker 3: like they don't they index off these kind of stylized 344 00:17:47,884 --> 00:17:50,084 Speaker 3: truths that are not more accurate, I don't think than 345 00:17:50,924 --> 00:17:55,124 Speaker 3: the models now when there's no information. If you know, 346 00:17:55,204 --> 00:18:01,044 Speaker 3: there's a murder investigation into Kamala Harris's husband that begins tonight, right, 347 00:18:02,724 --> 00:18:04,524 Speaker 3: you know, that won't have time to be reflected in 348 00:18:04,524 --> 00:18:06,404 Speaker 3: the polls, but it will be reflected by prediction markets, 349 00:18:06,404 --> 00:18:08,364 Speaker 3: and so that's quite useful. But like, but they kind 350 00:18:08,404 --> 00:18:10,724 Speaker 3: of believe in these halfways superstitious things, and in any event, 351 00:18:11,044 --> 00:18:13,284 Speaker 3: they've converged toward the models. I mean, there's a slight 352 00:18:13,324 --> 00:18:16,524 Speaker 3: Trump edge in Polly Marker. I think it's you know, 353 00:18:17,284 --> 00:18:19,764 Speaker 3: fifty six forty four or something, but much closer than 354 00:18:19,804 --> 00:18:21,244 Speaker 3: it had been a couple of weeks ago. 355 00:18:21,884 --> 00:18:24,324 Speaker 1: That's very interesting that there's still a Trump edge there. 356 00:18:24,324 --> 00:18:26,764 Speaker 1: And then yet you say that if you were given 357 00:18:26,764 --> 00:18:28,924 Speaker 1: a million dollar free roll, you might actually place it 358 00:18:28,964 --> 00:18:32,004 Speaker 1: on Harris So this is just this is giving me 359 00:18:32,164 --> 00:18:36,204 Speaker 1: and my gambler's mind a little bit of pause to 360 00:18:36,284 --> 00:18:39,644 Speaker 1: try to figure out, you know, what are some arbitrage 361 00:18:39,724 --> 00:18:45,124 Speaker 1: opportunities right now leading into the election. But I'm interested 362 00:18:46,044 --> 00:18:48,164 Speaker 1: to see what will actually happen and how this will 363 00:18:48,164 --> 00:18:51,364 Speaker 1: play out. And given the fact that everything is so close, 364 00:18:51,724 --> 00:18:56,284 Speaker 1: let's pivot a tiny bit and talk about our predictions 365 00:18:56,844 --> 00:19:01,484 Speaker 1: for tomorrow and for whether when we basically think this 366 00:19:01,604 --> 00:19:05,844 Speaker 1: race is going to be done, we'll be back right 367 00:19:05,884 --> 00:19:21,884 Speaker 1: after this. We've obviously had some close elections last election cycle, 368 00:19:22,804 --> 00:19:25,364 Speaker 1: so four years ago, we did not know the outcome 369 00:19:25,484 --> 00:19:29,844 Speaker 1: on election day itself. What do we think, you know, 370 00:19:30,044 --> 00:19:33,244 Speaker 1: if we were, if we were making some predictions, what 371 00:19:33,284 --> 00:19:35,764 Speaker 1: do we think is going to happen this year? Because 372 00:19:35,804 --> 00:19:39,364 Speaker 1: obviously there are some people who are giving just very 373 00:19:39,524 --> 00:19:43,844 Speaker 1: you know, scary civil warlike predictions that you know, no, 374 00:19:43,844 --> 00:19:45,924 Speaker 1: no outcome is going to be accepted, blah blah blah, 375 00:19:45,964 --> 00:19:48,004 Speaker 1: all these all these things are going to happen. People 376 00:19:48,044 --> 00:19:50,724 Speaker 1: are going to not certify. They're all of these what ifs. 377 00:19:51,404 --> 00:19:54,484 Speaker 1: So let's try to talk from a rational, data driven, 378 00:19:54,524 --> 00:19:57,324 Speaker 1: not an emotional perspective, not the things I'm afraid of 379 00:19:58,044 --> 00:20:00,124 Speaker 1: and try to figure out what do we think is 380 00:20:00,164 --> 00:20:03,684 Speaker 1: going to happen tomorrow, What where do the results need 381 00:20:03,724 --> 00:20:05,244 Speaker 1: to be, what do the margins need to be like 382 00:20:05,324 --> 00:20:08,124 Speaker 1: for the result to be kind of definitive within the 383 00:20:08,164 --> 00:20:10,404 Speaker 1: next few days, or or Nate, are you and I 384 00:20:10,484 --> 00:20:13,084 Speaker 1: going to be having this conversation for the next month 385 00:20:13,324 --> 00:20:16,084 Speaker 1: two months to try to figure out who the hell 386 00:20:16,124 --> 00:20:17,564 Speaker 1: won the election and what's happening. 387 00:20:18,524 --> 00:20:21,684 Speaker 3: So, as I think I talked about before, if you 388 00:20:21,804 --> 00:20:26,684 Speaker 3: want a non tense election, then you want to be 389 00:20:26,764 --> 00:20:29,524 Speaker 3: rooting for a polling air. So this is why my 390 00:20:29,564 --> 00:20:32,804 Speaker 3: life sucks either way this nightmare or situation, or you 391 00:20:32,844 --> 00:20:35,084 Speaker 3: have a big polling air because like so, if the 392 00:20:35,124 --> 00:20:39,764 Speaker 3: polls are off consistently in the same direction, then then 393 00:20:39,764 --> 00:20:41,764 Speaker 3: someone could sweep six or seven of the swing states. 394 00:20:43,324 --> 00:20:46,124 Speaker 3: And in that case, then I look, I'm sure that 395 00:20:46,924 --> 00:20:51,004 Speaker 3: Trump would not happily accept defeat unless it's really really bad. 396 00:20:52,444 --> 00:20:54,924 Speaker 3: But yeah, there's a thirty four percent chance that one 397 00:20:54,964 --> 00:20:56,964 Speaker 3: candidate sweeps all the swing states, and like another twenty 398 00:20:56,964 --> 00:20:59,844 Speaker 3: percent chance that it's six or seven in one direction. 399 00:20:59,924 --> 00:21:01,204 Speaker 3: I mean, I've tried to look alonto. 400 00:21:01,364 --> 00:21:03,324 Speaker 1: By the way, those are pretty high percentages. Thirty four 401 00:21:03,364 --> 00:21:04,764 Speaker 1: percent is a pretty high percentage. 402 00:21:04,924 --> 00:21:06,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, one in three. 403 00:21:06,844 --> 00:21:10,164 Speaker 3: I've tried to look a lot at uh, exactly how 404 00:21:10,164 --> 00:21:12,364 Speaker 3: the night will play out. That's important for the election 405 00:21:12,524 --> 00:21:16,644 Speaker 3: night stuff I'm doing. You know, the vote counting should 406 00:21:16,684 --> 00:21:21,364 Speaker 3: be faster than last time around because there are fewer 407 00:21:22,364 --> 00:21:25,924 Speaker 3: male votes, because you don't have Democrats staying at home 408 00:21:26,044 --> 00:21:31,844 Speaker 3: because of COVID as much. Some states have expedited their procedures, 409 00:21:31,884 --> 00:21:33,044 Speaker 3: some have not. 410 00:21:35,244 --> 00:21:36,364 Speaker 2: You know, I mean there's rebel. 411 00:21:36,164 --> 00:21:40,684 Speaker 3: Networks call at versus we'll skilled traders know by which 412 00:21:40,724 --> 00:21:44,644 Speaker 3: way it's leaning by three am Wednesday morning. I mean, 413 00:21:44,684 --> 00:21:50,484 Speaker 3: I'd say seventy percent chance that we'll know by Wednesday 414 00:21:50,524 --> 00:21:54,284 Speaker 3: three am with ninety five plus percent confidence. 415 00:21:55,164 --> 00:21:56,964 Speaker 1: Well, that's that's higher than I would have thought. 416 00:21:57,124 --> 00:21:59,964 Speaker 3: Estimate pulled out of my ass Well, you're. 417 00:21:59,804 --> 00:22:03,404 Speaker 1: You're pulled out of ask. Estimate actually reassures me a 418 00:22:03,404 --> 00:22:05,044 Speaker 1: little bit because I. 419 00:22:04,964 --> 00:22:06,884 Speaker 2: Was that doesn't mean Trump except the results. Right. 420 00:22:08,684 --> 00:22:10,884 Speaker 3: Let's say, Harris, it's a blue wall plus Nevada plus 421 00:22:10,924 --> 00:22:15,484 Speaker 3: North Carolina, one of the more plausible maps, by the way, you. 422 00:22:15,444 --> 00:22:19,044 Speaker 2: Know, that gives her some room to spare. 423 00:22:19,244 --> 00:22:22,004 Speaker 3: Right in that scenario, she could like lose anyone's state 424 00:22:22,764 --> 00:22:25,444 Speaker 3: and still have a victory anyone. 425 00:22:25,084 --> 00:22:27,444 Speaker 2: Of the swing stage. She couldn't list California or something. 426 00:22:28,684 --> 00:22:32,724 Speaker 3: And you know, and that outcome might be clear enough 427 00:22:32,724 --> 00:22:34,844 Speaker 3: that we'd know it by three four am, although Nevada 428 00:22:34,884 --> 00:22:39,404 Speaker 3: takes a long time to count its votes in Pennsylvania's too, 429 00:22:39,524 --> 00:22:42,804 Speaker 3: but we might know by three or four am. And 430 00:22:42,844 --> 00:22:46,764 Speaker 3: then it's all about the aftermath and about and about 431 00:22:46,884 --> 00:22:52,884 Speaker 3: you know, what happens with Trump now. Congress passed reforms 432 00:22:53,484 --> 00:22:56,644 Speaker 3: to the vote counting process. Basically, it's actually a pretty 433 00:22:56,644 --> 00:22:59,644 Speaker 3: good law in the view of election experts that I 434 00:22:59,764 --> 00:23:05,764 Speaker 3: read from. It basically allows the courts to have precedence 435 00:23:06,524 --> 00:23:11,964 Speaker 3: over Republican legislature, or Democratic ones for that matter, over 436 00:23:12,044 --> 00:23:14,364 Speaker 3: people who were at the state level, state officials who 437 00:23:14,404 --> 00:23:17,564 Speaker 3: are trying to interfere with the vote count. And the 438 00:23:17,604 --> 00:23:22,444 Speaker 3: courts have not shown any tolerance for Trump's shenanigans. He 439 00:23:22,524 --> 00:23:24,324 Speaker 3: lost like all but one of the other He was 440 00:23:24,324 --> 00:23:27,084 Speaker 3: like one out of sixty in like court rulings in 441 00:23:27,124 --> 00:23:32,244 Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Also, you have in place in all these 442 00:23:32,244 --> 00:23:36,924 Speaker 3: states positions people in key positions like governors and secretaries 443 00:23:36,924 --> 00:23:41,644 Speaker 3: of state. You know, you have Democrats having a firewall 444 00:23:41,684 --> 00:23:43,604 Speaker 3: and almost all, if not all, of these swing states 445 00:23:43,604 --> 00:23:46,644 Speaker 3: and at least some of those roles, or in the 446 00:23:46,644 --> 00:23:49,604 Speaker 3: case of Georgia, you have Brian Kemp, who is notoriously 447 00:23:49,684 --> 00:23:54,724 Speaker 3: not a fan of Trump's tendency to deny that he 448 00:23:54,804 --> 00:23:56,524 Speaker 3: lost the election in twenty twenty. 449 00:23:57,044 --> 00:23:59,084 Speaker 2: So so I'm. 450 00:23:58,964 --> 00:24:03,684 Speaker 3: Not so worried about like, if Harris wins, she won't 451 00:24:03,684 --> 00:24:09,004 Speaker 3: become presidents somehow? Am I worried about violence a little bit? 452 00:24:09,084 --> 00:24:11,964 Speaker 2: Yeah? 453 00:24:11,764 --> 00:24:13,964 Speaker 3: Yeah, And just for the record too, I mean, if 454 00:24:14,004 --> 00:24:16,324 Speaker 3: if it's a really close Trump when I don't know 455 00:24:16,364 --> 00:24:18,644 Speaker 3: what happens, then either people aren't happy. 456 00:24:19,484 --> 00:24:23,204 Speaker 1: I actually I do hope. I'm sorry, Nate, I know 457 00:24:23,244 --> 00:24:25,244 Speaker 1: that you said, you know, you're in a very tough spot, 458 00:24:25,284 --> 00:24:27,324 Speaker 1: but I do hope that the polling averages are off 459 00:24:27,364 --> 00:24:29,764 Speaker 1: in the sense that I hope that it's a more 460 00:24:29,804 --> 00:24:34,324 Speaker 1: decisive election result than it is a closer one, because 461 00:24:34,604 --> 00:24:36,964 Speaker 1: I think that would just be better for you know, 462 00:24:37,164 --> 00:24:40,524 Speaker 1: better for the country in a lot of respects. Obviously, 463 00:24:40,644 --> 00:24:43,204 Speaker 1: you know, as we know, I'm biased, So I hope 464 00:24:43,204 --> 00:24:47,204 Speaker 1: that that victory is in Kamala Harris's favor. But you know, 465 00:24:47,284 --> 00:24:50,564 Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be a crucial election, 466 00:24:50,764 --> 00:24:52,884 Speaker 1: not just in terms of who wins, but in terms of, 467 00:24:53,204 --> 00:24:56,524 Speaker 1: you know, the future of our democratic institutions, just to 468 00:24:56,644 --> 00:25:00,444 Speaker 1: kind of watch to see how they can be stress tested, 469 00:25:00,524 --> 00:25:04,844 Speaker 1: right they and whether how much they've weakened versus not, 470 00:25:05,684 --> 00:25:08,404 Speaker 1: and what's just going to happen over the next few days. 471 00:25:08,844 --> 00:25:11,844 Speaker 1: I do hope, hope that by November sixth, as you said, 472 00:25:11,964 --> 00:25:15,804 Speaker 1: so next time we're talking is going to be November six, right, 473 00:25:15,884 --> 00:25:18,844 Speaker 1: So we're going to be dropping another Risky Business podcast 474 00:25:18,884 --> 00:25:22,204 Speaker 1: in two days. So I hope that you know, nine 475 00:25:22,284 --> 00:25:26,524 Speaker 1: am Pacific noon Eastern when we when we speak, that 476 00:25:26,644 --> 00:25:29,164 Speaker 1: we will actually know the results of the election. I 477 00:25:29,164 --> 00:25:32,764 Speaker 1: think that would be such a wonderful outcome, just just 478 00:25:32,804 --> 00:25:35,004 Speaker 1: to know that, Okay, we're not going to have this 479 00:25:35,124 --> 00:25:40,244 Speaker 1: protracted battle going on. And to me, to me, that 480 00:25:40,284 --> 00:25:42,804 Speaker 1: would be to me that would you know, that's something 481 00:25:42,844 --> 00:25:49,484 Speaker 1: that's really an optimistic, an optimistic take, because I definitely 482 00:25:49,484 --> 00:25:51,204 Speaker 1: see the scenario we're on the six you and I 483 00:25:51,244 --> 00:25:53,204 Speaker 1: are talking again being like, so who do we think 484 00:25:53,324 --> 00:25:56,844 Speaker 1: is gonna win this election and what's going to happen? 485 00:25:57,164 --> 00:25:59,284 Speaker 1: And I don't want to be having that conversation again 486 00:25:59,964 --> 00:26:03,484 Speaker 1: in the sense of wow, like we really can't decide, 487 00:26:03,564 --> 00:26:07,164 Speaker 1: and and shit's going down because I do think there 488 00:26:07,244 --> 00:26:08,844 Speaker 1: is a lot of uncertainty, and I do think that 489 00:26:08,884 --> 00:26:10,204 Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that we just don't 490 00:26:10,244 --> 00:26:14,804 Speaker 1: know because this is a largely not unprecedented, but it's 491 00:26:14,804 --> 00:26:18,884 Speaker 1: a very different situation than any that's happened during our lifetimes. 492 00:26:19,404 --> 00:26:21,564 Speaker 1: And as you say, this is this is the closest 493 00:26:21,644 --> 00:26:23,684 Speaker 1: race we've had, right, this is the closest race we've 494 00:26:23,684 --> 00:26:24,484 Speaker 1: had during our lifetime. 495 00:26:24,644 --> 00:26:26,324 Speaker 3: I mean, look, I've never had a race where it's 496 00:26:26,364 --> 00:26:28,684 Speaker 3: literally fifty to fifty before on election day, and it's 497 00:26:28,804 --> 00:26:31,364 Speaker 3: I'm only forecasted for presidential elections, I guess, But like, 498 00:26:31,924 --> 00:26:35,564 Speaker 3: you know, look, I was gonna say that, oh, if 499 00:26:35,564 --> 00:26:39,484 Speaker 3: you're a Democrat and Trump has to win, then maybe 500 00:26:39,484 --> 00:26:42,764 Speaker 3: at least what happened when clearly so you know, it 501 00:26:42,844 --> 00:26:45,324 Speaker 3: kind of ends the misery earlier and or avoids the 502 00:26:45,444 --> 00:26:47,284 Speaker 3: sorts of you know, whatever that could happen in a 503 00:26:47,284 --> 00:26:51,324 Speaker 3: close election. I think if you're somebody who is like 504 00:26:52,364 --> 00:26:59,204 Speaker 3: concerned about Trump excesses and overreach, you want a close 505 00:26:59,244 --> 00:27:02,604 Speaker 3: election if Trump wins. Conditional on Trump running for a 506 00:27:02,604 --> 00:27:06,604 Speaker 3: different reason though, which is that in a close election, 507 00:27:07,404 --> 00:27:12,804 Speaker 3: there's a chance that Democrats control still control, probably not 508 00:27:12,844 --> 00:27:15,524 Speaker 3: the Senate. Either control the House or keep the Senate 509 00:27:16,004 --> 00:27:22,044 Speaker 3: to a margin where Trump can't appoint insane cabinet secretaries 510 00:27:22,084 --> 00:27:24,804 Speaker 3: and has some degree of oversight, right that you don't 511 00:27:24,804 --> 00:27:26,764 Speaker 3: have Robert F. 512 00:27:26,844 --> 00:27:31,004 Speaker 2: Cannedy Junior as a health secretary for example. I'm not joking. 513 00:27:31,124 --> 00:27:31,924 Speaker 2: He's talked about it. 514 00:27:32,004 --> 00:27:35,804 Speaker 3: If you have a fifty two excuse me, a fifty 515 00:27:35,884 --> 00:27:38,644 Speaker 3: one forty nine up majority in the Senate, you're going 516 00:27:38,684 --> 00:27:41,884 Speaker 3: to have some objectors to objectors at RFK Junior. If 517 00:27:41,884 --> 00:27:48,244 Speaker 3: it's fifty four seats, then that's a huge difference. So 518 00:27:48,364 --> 00:27:50,844 Speaker 3: scenario where like the polling is way off on Trump 519 00:27:51,204 --> 00:27:53,084 Speaker 3: and he beats his polls again and again, this is 520 00:27:53,244 --> 00:27:56,804 Speaker 3: look this up. I mean, it's unsurprisingly where Republicans beat 521 00:27:56,804 --> 00:27:59,004 Speaker 3: their polls in the presidential race and vice versa, the 522 00:27:59,044 --> 00:28:01,484 Speaker 3: Senate candidates will do the same thing with very high correlation. 523 00:28:02,844 --> 00:28:08,244 Speaker 3: So so yeah, Democrats, I think, really want to avoid 524 00:28:08,324 --> 00:28:10,924 Speaker 3: these lands to lide outcome where they are kind of 525 00:28:10,964 --> 00:28:12,764 Speaker 3: totally dealt out of power. 526 00:28:13,684 --> 00:28:17,484 Speaker 1: I mean, I obviously agree, but I as people know, 527 00:28:17,644 --> 00:28:20,684 Speaker 1: you know that's the outcome I want is a Democratic victory. 528 00:28:20,964 --> 00:28:23,844 Speaker 1: But like I said, I'm trying. I'm trying my best, Nate, 529 00:28:23,964 --> 00:28:28,204 Speaker 1: to look at the data without that emotional tint right now, 530 00:28:28,244 --> 00:28:30,724 Speaker 1: because I think that emotion ain't going to help anyone 531 00:28:31,444 --> 00:28:33,684 Speaker 1: other than you know, as we already said, if you 532 00:28:33,724 --> 00:28:37,044 Speaker 1: haven't voted yet, please please please go out and vote, 533 00:28:37,164 --> 00:28:39,964 Speaker 1: and if you're undecided, please go, you know, please go 534 00:28:40,004 --> 00:28:43,084 Speaker 1: and vote tomorrow. I think that that is crucially important. 535 00:28:43,564 --> 00:28:44,604 Speaker 2: That's by the way, let me have you know. 536 00:28:44,764 --> 00:28:49,124 Speaker 3: Yeah, we talk about these seven swing states, and there's 537 00:28:49,204 --> 00:28:50,964 Speaker 3: you know, a ninety percent chance that one of them 538 00:28:51,004 --> 00:28:52,204 Speaker 3: is what I call the tipping points state. 539 00:28:52,244 --> 00:28:52,844 Speaker 2: But if you're in. 540 00:28:54,364 --> 00:28:58,084 Speaker 3: Iowa or New Hampshire or Virginia or New Mexico or 541 00:28:58,124 --> 00:29:04,844 Speaker 3: Minnesota or so Alaska, some of these states are reaches 542 00:29:04,884 --> 00:29:06,724 Speaker 3: for the cat ades, but they come up there once 543 00:29:06,764 --> 00:29:08,604 Speaker 3: in a while, right, And we're pretty smart about how 544 00:29:08,604 --> 00:29:11,524 Speaker 3: we simulate this, and like, if the polls are way off, 545 00:29:11,524 --> 00:29:13,404 Speaker 3: you could have some surprising states in place. So if 546 00:29:13,444 --> 00:29:18,124 Speaker 3: you're in that broader pin number of swing states, whoever 547 00:29:18,164 --> 00:29:21,444 Speaker 3: you have, if you have a preference, I'm not endorsing anybody, 548 00:29:21,924 --> 00:29:25,284 Speaker 3: but I would endorse idea of your vote being worth 549 00:29:25,364 --> 00:29:27,164 Speaker 3: the time for you to get off your ass and 550 00:29:27,764 --> 00:29:30,484 Speaker 3: vote tomorrow. It's going to be easier now because, like, 551 00:29:30,884 --> 00:29:33,324 Speaker 3: because you have in moll states this spread of like 552 00:29:33,884 --> 00:29:36,244 Speaker 3: methods of voting. The polls aren't as swarmed as much 553 00:29:36,244 --> 00:29:37,884 Speaker 3: on election days, so you're not going to have to, 554 00:29:38,604 --> 00:29:40,804 Speaker 3: you know, go too far away. Go go one of 555 00:29:40,844 --> 00:29:44,764 Speaker 3: those nice artistical coffee shops, right, and you get your sticker. 556 00:29:45,404 --> 00:29:47,124 Speaker 3: So I will endorse idea of voting. 557 00:29:47,684 --> 00:29:50,644 Speaker 1: So now you know, with less than twenty four hours 558 00:29:50,804 --> 00:29:53,764 Speaker 1: left to go, I am going to let you go 559 00:29:53,844 --> 00:29:58,324 Speaker 1: and worry about your final model and polls and looking 560 00:29:58,364 --> 00:30:00,924 Speaker 1: forward to seeing what the silver bulletin says tonight. Nate, 561 00:30:00,964 --> 00:30:03,684 Speaker 1: as you've already said, you have no idea what it's 562 00:30:03,764 --> 00:30:05,804 Speaker 1: going to look like when you run the model for 563 00:30:05,844 --> 00:30:06,444 Speaker 1: the last time. 564 00:30:06,964 --> 00:30:10,004 Speaker 3: Just as we were taping this, there was a Marist 565 00:30:10,164 --> 00:30:12,204 Speaker 3: National poll, another high quality pul so that is known 566 00:30:12,244 --> 00:30:16,124 Speaker 3: for not hurting, that had Harris plus four or so. Look, 567 00:30:16,164 --> 00:30:19,404 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know, I don't know who I'd 568 00:30:19,444 --> 00:30:21,604 Speaker 3: been on. People think I'm like tinkering with knobs and shit, 569 00:30:21,964 --> 00:30:25,164 Speaker 3: I don't. I have no idea who we had to Well. 570 00:30:25,204 --> 00:30:28,644 Speaker 1: Let's see, and I'm very curious. I will be waiting 571 00:30:28,764 --> 00:30:33,044 Speaker 1: with baited breath. So with that, let's let's leave. Everyone. 572 00:30:33,284 --> 00:30:37,444 Speaker 1: Please please go vote and we will check back in 573 00:30:37,564 --> 00:30:40,004 Speaker 1: in forty eight hours to see to see where we are. 574 00:30:40,444 --> 00:30:48,124 Speaker 1: Good luck everybody, indeed, good luck America. Let us know 575 00:30:48,164 --> 00:30:50,484 Speaker 1: what you think of the show. Reach out to us 576 00:30:50,524 --> 00:30:55,284 Speaker 1: at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm. Risky Business is 577 00:30:55,324 --> 00:30:57,484 Speaker 1: hosted by me Maria Kannikova. 578 00:30:57,164 --> 00:30:58,484 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. 579 00:30:58,884 --> 00:31:02,404 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 580 00:31:02,924 --> 00:31:06,484 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 581 00:31:06,564 --> 00:31:09,284 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is J. 582 00:31:09,604 --> 00:31:10,924 Speaker 2: Goldstein. If you like the. 583 00:31:10,884 --> 00:31:13,084 Speaker 3: Show, please rate and review us so other people can 584 00:31:13,124 --> 00:31:15,044 Speaker 3: find us too. And if you want to listen to 585 00:31:15,084 --> 00:31:18,724 Speaker 3: an ad free version, sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six, 586 00:31:18,764 --> 00:31:20,404 Speaker 3: ten and nine a month you get access to ad 587 00:31:20,404 --> 00:31:22,324 Speaker 3: free listening. Thanks for tuning in.