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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second spot. Hello, Welcome the Action

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Speaker 2: Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zerilla, joined today

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Speaker 2: by Billy Word to help you break down this weekend's

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Speaker 2: UFC card, giving you some of our best bets, favorite underdogs,

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Speaker 2: top props, and more. If you'd like to tail some

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Speaker 2: of the bets that we discussed today, make sure to

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Speaker 2: find the quick slip link in the podcast at video

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Speaker 2: description or go to Action network dot com Slash bet

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Speaker 2: Now twelve fight card in Seattle. Prelim start at six pm,

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Speaker 2: Main card at nine pm. The main event Henry Sehudo

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Speaker 2: about a plus three twenty underdog against song Ya Dong

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Speaker 2: minus two seventy five sorry, plus two twenty for Henry

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Speaker 2: s Hudo minus two seventy five for Songy Doong. Fight

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Speaker 2: about minus one sixty five to go to a decision

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Speaker 2: about sixty two percent applied plus one thirty to end

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Speaker 2: inside the distance. Billy and I aligned on the same

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Speaker 2: side of the fight, betting it slightly differently, however, do

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Speaker 2: you want to note though the age gap differential between

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Speaker 2: these two Songy Doong eleven years younger, and when there's

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Speaker 2: at least a decade of age between UFC opponents, the

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Speaker 2: younger fighter has tended to beat the market, winning about

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Speaker 2: twelve percent more often the betting market expects seventy one

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Speaker 2: percent win rate versus about average odds of fifty nine

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Speaker 2: percent minus one forty five in that range. Songs also

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Speaker 2: the bigger band forges Holler three and treat advantage to Hudo.

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Speaker 2: A former fly weight, has mentioned potentially going back down

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Speaker 2: to one twenty five if he wins this fight, potentially

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Speaker 2: trying to get his hands back on a UFC title

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Speaker 2: in a division that is a little bit weaker, a

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Speaker 2: little bit more shallow. Now, this is a different matchup

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Speaker 2: forsu Hudo than the guys he's faced in recent fights.

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Speaker 2: He had very tough wrestling style matchups, grappling style fights

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Speaker 2: with Marab Devas Hiley current champion with al Jamaine Sterling who,

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Speaker 2: by the numbers, so Hudo all grappled for portions of

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Speaker 2: that fight. He had more control time, he landed multiple

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Speaker 2: takedowns in that fight. Al Jo had takedowns of his own,

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Speaker 2: but so Who too had five minutes to control.

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Speaker 1: Aljo had four.

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Speaker 2: That fight was a split on the scorecards. But what

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Speaker 2: I do think is the difficulty for Suhudo in terms

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Speaker 2: of winning this fight consistently is the damage optics. Earlier

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Speaker 2: in his career much more capable of winning a fight

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Speaker 2: with control time. Now later in his career, Lesson Cardio

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Speaker 2: not gonna be able to shoot takedowns, you know, more

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Speaker 2: than two takedowns around across a twenty five minute fight,

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Speaker 2: which is roughly what he's average throughout his career.

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Speaker 1: But he's not gonna be able to.

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Speaker 2: Go in there with a a rob style game plan

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Speaker 2: shoot thirty takedowns. He's probably not going to be able

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Speaker 2: to control Song for more than half around at a time.

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Speaker 2: Song is very strong, his get ups aren't super technical,

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Speaker 2: but he's able to explode back to his feet used

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Speaker 2: that athleticism, and then on the feet, Song is the

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Speaker 2: much more dangerous and efficient striker. Sahuda does the ability

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Speaker 2: to damage him to slow him down with leg kicks,

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Speaker 2: but Song is going to land the more impactful punches

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Speaker 2: in the pocket and have much better damage optics. So

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Speaker 2: I think there is a chance to Hudo could win

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Speaker 2: minutes of the round with top control, and then they

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Speaker 2: return to their feet, and Song steals the fight back

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Speaker 2: or steals the roundback with superior damage on the feet.

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Speaker 1: But overall, I do.

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Speaker 2: Think Suhudo has the type of style to give Song trouble.

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Speaker 2: Songs lesser skill or his weakest area is his grappling defense.

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Speaker 2: He's been taken down held down in the past, and

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Speaker 2: Sahudo's arguably the best wrestler that he's ever faced. I'm

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Speaker 2: just concerned about the age Song in his physical prime,

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Speaker 2: Shuto nearing the end of his career in his late thirties.

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Speaker 2: But if there's somebody who's athleticism is going to carry,

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Speaker 2: it's a world class athlete like triple C former Olympic

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Speaker 2: gold medalist in wrestling, two time UFC champion in multiple

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Speaker 2: weight divisions. I'm betting Sahudo by decision of plus three ninety.

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Speaker 2: I made that line closer to plus three twenty five

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Speaker 2: plus three to fifty or better. I don't give him

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Speaker 2: much finishing upside in the fight. I think Song is

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Speaker 2: the favorite because he is much more knockout upside, much

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Speaker 2: more finishing upside, in addition to the damage optics on

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Speaker 2: the feat. Billy, You're just gonna take the straight money

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Speaker 2: line stab at plus two twenty five. Tell me what

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Speaker 2: I missed in terms of my breakdown on this matchup.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you missed anything. I took this one

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Speaker 1: pretty early in the week. I thought the line would

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Speaker 1: come back in a little bit more than it did.

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Speaker 1: You know, before those method of victory props were off.

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Speaker 1: The only thing stylistically I would add is the way

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Speaker 1: that Song likes to get up and escape. He likes

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Speaker 1: to turn his back, go to his turtle and stand up.

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Speaker 1: He's been trying with Team Alpamel. They all do that.

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Speaker 1: That works really really well against guys whose grappling foundation

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Speaker 1: is like judo or sambo, because I want to jump

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Speaker 1: on your back and get submissions rather than break you

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Speaker 1: back down. Wrestling is all about breaking someone back down

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Speaker 1: from that position. I mean, that's referee's position. That's how

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Speaker 1: everything but the first round starts in wrestling. Most of

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Speaker 1: the time, that is a really tough spot or tough

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Speaker 1: way to get back up against a guy like Suhudo

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Speaker 1: who is going to flatten you back out, make you

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Speaker 1: do it over and over again. So I like that

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Speaker 1: stylistically for Suhudo. But as you touched on like he

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Speaker 1: came back and fought two of the toughest grapplers in

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Speaker 1: the UFC, much less in these divisions. The age is

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Speaker 1: mitigated a little bit by coming back up to one

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Speaker 1: thirty five instead of one twenty five. You know, you're

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Speaker 1: a year or two younger as a bantamweight than you

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Speaker 1: would be as a flyweight. Still don't love that. I

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Speaker 1: actually wish the Comaane was five rounds and this one

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Speaker 1: was three rounds. I'd feel much better about betting on

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Speaker 1: both sides, honestly, but that's not what we have. I

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Speaker 1: am worried about down the stretch. I don't think he

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Speaker 1: gets hurt here sahudo. That is, he's been extremely durable,

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Speaker 1: he's got slick boxing, he's hard to touch. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right about the damage optics this and there's many

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Speaker 1: of these on this card. It would be a great

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Speaker 1: point sped bet on the underdog, but the line is

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Speaker 1: just so far apart is even money at DraftKings, and

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Speaker 1: I'd rather just take a half unit on his money

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Speaker 1: line at plus two twenty five and take a bigger

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Speaker 1: waying because we're not getting really a great price on

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Speaker 1: the points bread. Because the books correctly realized that this

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Speaker 1: should be a close fight.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, plus five and a half can't really do much

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Speaker 2: with that, as the underdog would much rather lay that

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Speaker 2: with the favorite, And again Song does have more finishing

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Speaker 2: upside and more damage optics. You know, you look back

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Speaker 2: at how the Aljro fight scored a lot of people.

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Speaker 2: It'll ended up being a split decision, but more people

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Speaker 2: scored it forty nine to forty six for al Jo

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Speaker 2: than had it forty eight forty seven for Suhudo. And

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Speaker 2: in that case, I think I would want to lay

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Speaker 2: the five and a half with Song as opposed to

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Speaker 2: taking the five and a half with Suhudo. I think

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Speaker 2: Suhudo by decision the best way to go about playing it,

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Speaker 2: maybe even Sahudo in the decision only market, though I

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Speaker 2: projected that at plus one eighty and that's exactly where

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Speaker 2: DraftKings is too, literally to the number we were on

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Speaker 2: the mark in the decision only market, so no value

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Speaker 2: there decision only, even though I thought that might be

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Speaker 2: a way to consider playing it, just Suhudo by decision

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Speaker 2: For me, Billy going with Suhudo on the money line.

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Speaker 2: We'll see if it ends up floating up a little

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Speaker 2: bit more, maybe some Chinese money coming into the market,

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Speaker 2: the offshru markets, or just people betting the age differential.

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Speaker 2: As we get closer to fight time, our fight of

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Speaker 2: the night. Several fights on this card that I'm really

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Speaker 2: interested in. We have a rematch here from LFA between

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Speaker 2: Brendan Allen at plus two seventy and Anthony Fluffy Hernandez

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Speaker 2: at minus three twenty that fight. That first fight occurred

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Speaker 2: in twenty seventeen. Alan opened minus two sixty five for

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Speaker 2: that fight, closed minus one eighty five. Hernandez opened minus

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Speaker 2: one ninety eight for the rematch of DraftKings minus two sixty. Elsewhere,

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Speaker 2: he's been bet up well over minus three hundred billion.

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Speaker 2: I agree on one aspect in particular this fight, which

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Speaker 2: is Alexander Hernandez is a great live bet after five

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Speaker 2: minutes after round one, Billy, I'm gonna let you take

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Speaker 2: it away though, because you have a breakdown for this

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Speaker 2: fight on Action Network dot Com. How are you betting

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Speaker 2: it pre fight while waiting for the Hernettaz live bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pre fight. I'm coming in with a Brandan Allen ticket.

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Speaker 1: We see Anthony Hernandez get hurt early in what feels

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Speaker 1: like all of his fights. It's not all of his fights,

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Speaker 1: but it's often and we've also seen Brendan Allen be

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Speaker 1: much better earlier in fights than late. And what I

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Speaker 1: realized watching tape he did the same thing seven or

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Speaker 1: eight years ago against Fluffy Hernandez that he did against

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Speaker 1: Naserdine Imeobov in his last fight, which is he'll get

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Speaker 1: an early takedown but get so greedy, for lack of

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Speaker 1: a better term, hunting subs, he doesn't hurt his opponent,

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Speaker 1: and then if he doesn't get the submission, he kind

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Speaker 1: of walks away with nothing to show for it. Maybe

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Speaker 1: you win the round because he kept attacking stuff, but

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Speaker 1: now you're tired. The other guy kind of just sat

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Speaker 1: there defending and you didn't do any damage, you didn't

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Speaker 1: weaken him for later rounds. I feel like that's pretty

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Speaker 1: likely to happen again here, just because we've seen seven

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Speaker 1: or eight years of Brendan Allen doing that against guys

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Speaker 1: he can submit great, go tap him out, make it quick,

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Speaker 1: get done with it. If you're not going to find

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Speaker 1: that sub and it's going to go longer into the fight,

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Speaker 1: you put yourself in a pretty bad position. I think

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Speaker 1: if we were doing a one round grappling match, I

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Speaker 1: think Brendan Allen is actually the better grappler here. I

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Speaker 1: know everybody loves Anthony Hernandez. He's a lot of fun.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of like the morob of middleweight. He shot

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Speaker 1: twenty nine takedown attempts in his last fight. You do

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Speaker 1: not see that amongst bigger fighters. But just in terms

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Speaker 1: of like at their peak, we're both fresh. We're only

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Speaker 1: gonna do this for a few minutes. I think Brendan

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Speaker 1: Allen's actually better, might even be the slightly better striker.

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Speaker 1: I just expect him to exhaust himself going for stuff

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Speaker 1: in the first half or so of this fight. So

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Speaker 1: Brendan Allen pre fight. You could even go Brendan Allen

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Speaker 1: round one and then try to come back live if

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Speaker 1: you wanted to really stretch it out. Took that at

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Speaker 1: plus two seventy after the first round. We should be

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Speaker 1: in a spot though, where you can kind of arbitrage

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Speaker 1: it and make money either way, assuming that line comes

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Speaker 1: back in on Fluffy Hernandez. That's why I don't like

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Speaker 1: the round one because you can't really set up that

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Speaker 1: payout either way. Guys are fresh at the start of round.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he comes out swinging real hard, in round two

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Speaker 1: or three. Don't think that's the likeliest, but it makes

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Speaker 1: that a little bit tighter needle to threads. So I

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Speaker 1: like Brendan Allen prefight. I'm totally with you. You're gonna

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Speaker 1: give away, you know, and Hernandez late as well, which

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Speaker 1: exactly how I'm seeing it. I just like trying to

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Speaker 1: build that portfolio where I get paid out either way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, same day parlay Hernandez in the over one and

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Speaker 2: a half rounds at minus one p fifty five. I

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Speaker 2: think that's most of his wing condition in this fight.

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Speaker 2: As you mentioned, he does tend to get hurt pretty

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Speaker 2: frequently early. He's vulnerable to the body.

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Speaker 1: It'sack.

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Speaker 2: Kevin Hollan put him away with body shots very quickly.

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Speaker 2: Alan is vulnerable to the head. But I don't think

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Speaker 2: Fluffy has the punching power to necessarily put Alan down

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Speaker 2: at striking range. So I give Alan the striking advantage.

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Speaker 2: I'd give Alan the early wrestling advantage, but as you said,

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Speaker 2: he is probably the better submission grappler, but he makes

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Speaker 2: so many more mistakes in terms of the grappling. Fluffy

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Speaker 2: much calmer. He saw the way he defended against Hudolpha

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Speaker 2: Viira bite at his time until he was able to

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Speaker 2: get on top and submit Viira. Hernandez is just much

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Speaker 2: more composed, and that doesn't really align with the chaotic

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Speaker 2: fighting style that he's trying to implement. He's, you know,

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Speaker 2: relentlessly attacking your legs and going for one takedown after another.

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Speaker 2: But then once he gets to those grappling positions, he's

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Speaker 2: actually not prone to making mistakes. He's very comment progressing

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Speaker 2: from one position to the next and prioritizing position over submission,

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Speaker 2: whereas Allan always prioritizes submission over position and ends up

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Speaker 2: losing said position against guys like Fluffy who are able

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Speaker 2: to defend him. So, yes, I agree with you, Billy.

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Speaker 2: I think Alan, like he did in the first fight,

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Speaker 2: probably lands the first takedown and is the first guy

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Speaker 2: to get top position. But I prefer Hernandez in the scrambling,

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Speaker 2: and I prefer Hernandez the longer the fight goes. I

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Speaker 2: think he is better Cardio. I think his pressure, his

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Speaker 2: tenacity all elite. A bit of an awkward fighter to handicap,

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Speaker 2: because you know, if you think about a fight playing

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Speaker 2: out normally at range, or two fighters wrestling in a

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Speaker 2: normal fashion, or you know, a normal MMA fight playing out.

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Speaker 2: Fluffy's skills don't really measure up to Alan's or even

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Speaker 2: a lot of guys in the division, but the way

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Speaker 2: he fights, the way he sticks on you, it's almost

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Speaker 2: the I think of the Chill Sun unquote. I can't

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Speaker 2: let you get closed. You can't let Fluffy get closed,

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Speaker 2: because once he initiates the process of getting the hands

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Speaker 2: on you and starting the takedowns, he puts you through

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Speaker 2: the washing machine. I talked about this before the Roman

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Speaker 2: kapol Off fight. Kopo Off heard him early in round one,

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Speaker 2: but the moment Fluffy got his hands on him, the

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Speaker 2: moment he got him in his grasp, the fight was

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Speaker 2: basically over. It's literally like putting guys through a washing machine.

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Speaker 2: He just it's rinses and repeats, and it's again and

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Speaker 2: again and again until you're exhausted. So Fluffy live after

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Speaker 2: round one probably going to be the best price on

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Speaker 2: the favorite. I think we get a competitive round one.

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Speaker 2: I think Allen I'd say is fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 1: To win round one.

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Speaker 2: If not favored to win round one, maybe even sixty

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Speaker 2: forty Allen, and then I'd probably go sixty forty Hernandez

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Speaker 2: round two, maybe eighty twenty or ninety ten. Round three's

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Speaker 2: this fight progresses, so Hernandez live after round one, same

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Speaker 2: game parlay Hernandez in the over one and a half,

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Speaker 2: could even do Hernandez round three or decision at minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty and then Hernandez decision is about plus one

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Speaker 2: ten plus one fifteen. I think all fine ways to play.

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Speaker 2: The favorite likely prefer the same game parlay at minus

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Speaker 2: one fifty five. Rely any props you like on this

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Speaker 2: fight aside from the live angle on Hernandez after the

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Speaker 2: pre fight on Alan, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean the prop would be Allen round one, or

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Speaker 1: you could alternatively Hernandez round three or by decision slightly

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Speaker 1: better price than what you got. That's kind of just

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Speaker 1: a play with the timing however you want, with however

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Speaker 1: you have available. But yeah, I mean he has a

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Speaker 1: shot at finishing it in round one, either on the feet,

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Speaker 1: like we could see Andre Petrowski Versudolfo Vieira Part two

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Speaker 1: this weekend with kind of just a kickboxing match, and

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Speaker 1: just like Petrowski over Vieira, I think the underdog here

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Speaker 1: is the better striker. Hopefully we'd see a finish and

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Speaker 1: not what we saw last week, which wasn't a great fight,

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Speaker 1: but we both got paid, so I'm happy with it.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I would add you mentioned Alan making mistakes.

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Speaker 1: It's frustrating because it's not even technical mistakes. It's not

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Speaker 1: like he didn't pass guard appropriately in this way like

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Speaker 1: his jiu jitsu is borderline perfect. It's like strategic, like

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Speaker 1: it's just not understanding what you should be trying to accomplish.

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Speaker 1: And you look at all the fluffy submissions. That front

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Speaker 1: headlock position. He doesn't have to give up anything to

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Speaker 1: set that up, right, he sets it up. If it's

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Speaker 1: not there, move on. You're still in a great spot

294
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Speaker 1: or arm triangle. He's had an arm triangle. Tap. You

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00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 1: can sit in top position hold that arm triangle. If

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Speaker 1: you get it, great, If not, you can still beat

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Speaker 1: the guy up versus Brendon Allen always trying to jump

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Speaker 1: on your back and if you don't get that and

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Speaker 1: you get dumped over the top, yeah, do the whole

300
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Speaker 1: thing all over again. So that's the thing that's interesting

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Speaker 1: to me. Wouldn't shock me if he even did find

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Speaker 1: that submission in the first round, So if I was

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Speaker 1: going to prop it, it'd probably be Allen round one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Allan round one, you get as high as sixteen

305
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Speaker 2: to one, So definitely an interesting poke there. I think

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Speaker 2: his best path to victory here is just to separate

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Speaker 2: and strike. And I know there will be a point

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Speaker 2: in this fight where he's winning striking at distance and

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Speaker 2: Hernandez hasn't pressured or he you know, he hasn't pressured

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Speaker 2: in a minute, and Allen's going to be the one

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Speaker 2: who initiates the grap like and then Hernandez is going

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Speaker 2: to get on top again. That seems to happen in

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Speaker 2: every Brendon Allen fight where he's winning one aspect of

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Speaker 2: the fight and then he's like, well, I'm well rounded,

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Speaker 2: I should change it up and go for the other,

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Speaker 2: and then he ends up losing in the other aspect

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Speaker 2: of the fight. So yeah, Brenon Allen just prone to

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Speaker 2: in fight mistakes, prone to not taking the path of

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Speaker 2: lyrics to resistance or capitalizing in the area where he

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Speaker 2: has the advantage over his opponent. I do think he'll

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Speaker 2: end up making mistake, Fluffy will capitalize, and Fluffy will

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Speaker 2: take over down the stretch. Moving on our favorite underdogs

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Speaker 2: on this card, quite a number of underdogs we like

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Speaker 2: just give about one. Obviously in the comin event Billy

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Speaker 2: did with Brendon Allen, I've got one of my best bets.

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Speaker 2: Billy kind of has one in his best bets. He's

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Speaker 2: betting an underdog, but doing it in a different fashion,

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Speaker 2: and I've got three highlighted under our favorite underdog section.

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Speaker 2: Billy's also betting one of these in the prop market

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Speaker 2: as well, So quite a bit of agreement on some

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Speaker 2: of these dogs. I'm gonna start and throw to you,

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Speaker 2: Billy first, on one that was in your luck rankings

333
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Speaker 2: earlier this week. Halfie Elser Carria at plus two sixty

334
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Speaker 2: five is what you got on Monday. I took plus

335
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Speaker 2: two thirty last night. What's your price target on Sirkaria

336
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Speaker 2: and w are you betting this matchup?

337
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Speaker 1: Yeah? I think i'd take it down to about plus

338
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Speaker 1: two hundred. It's a tricky one. We don't know a

339
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Speaker 1: ton about Circaria. He got starched by Ebo Aslan in

340
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Speaker 1: his debut. It was a weird situation though he was

341
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Speaker 1: supposed to fight on the Contender Series. They had at

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Speaker 1: different points three different opponents for him on the Contender

343
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Speaker 1: Series before he got called up. So like I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give him a pass on that, just because he was

345
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Speaker 1: preparing for all kinds of different people. Who knows part

346
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Speaker 1: of that ten and zero. I think nine finishes most

347
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Speaker 1: of them in the first round. In Bukowskis, who he's fighting,

348
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Speaker 1: is a guy who can kind of get overwhelmed by

349
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Speaker 1: like big pressure athletes, you know. Jimmy Krut knocked him

350
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Speaker 1: out in the first round. Khilil Roundtree knocked him out

351
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Speaker 1: in the second round. Petrino got him in the second

352
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Speaker 1: round in an extended fight. I think Bruskowskis might be

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Speaker 1: the more skilled fighter from what I've seen from Sir Korea,

354
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Speaker 1: though he's just gonna swarm early do some damage. I

355
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Speaker 1: think if I was betting it now, that's why I

356
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Speaker 1: had a hard time with your question, I might take

357
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Speaker 1: inside the distance or part laid with under two rounds

358
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Speaker 1: or under one and a half, some version of that,

359
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,159
Speaker 1: had I not got the better line. But there's just

360
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Speaker 1: enough unknowns about how this is going to go that

361
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Speaker 1: getting if we're flipping a coin because we don't know

362
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Speaker 1: what's going on, better than two to one on one

363
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Speaker 1: side obviously makes a lot more sense than the other.

364
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that Ko one loss, first loss

365
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Speaker 2: of his UFC career. First, you know, the UFC moment

366
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Speaker 2: he had is giving us value and potentially two fights

367
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Speaker 2: on this card, both the Circaria fight against Pukowskis and

368
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Speaker 2: then also the Ebo Aslon fight, which we'll discuss later.

369
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Speaker 2: Sirkaria closed minus one twenty against Ebo Aslon after opening

370
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Speaker 2: at plus one fifty, so the market moved him to favorite,

371
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Speaker 2: and then he died on the first exchange. And I

372
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Speaker 2: do think first exchange ko's first round KOs are not

373
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Speaker 2: very repeatable outcomes. They're random, they're high variants. I think

374
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Speaker 2: people take away much more from them than they actually

375
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Speaker 2: tell you. And in the case of a fighter like

376
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Speaker 2: Ebo Aslon who will get to you later, or Nikolai

377
00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 2: Vertikov who will get to you later, there are guys

378
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 2: who fall into this round one finisher archetype who as

379
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 2: their fights extend, you don't really know what they have

380
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Speaker 2: to offer. And Sirkaria actually fits into that category as well.

381
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Speaker 2: But I think that unpredictability at plus two thirty is

382
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 2: worth betting into, not betting into it at minus one twenty,

383
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,920
Speaker 2: knowing that Bukowskis is likely the better point fighter likely

384
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 2: to sustain better across a fifteen minute fight, But Sir

385
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Speaker 2: Karia is probably the more dangerous guy we know. Bukowskis

386
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 2: has a potentially compromised shin has been put away in

387
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Speaker 2: the past, seemingly gets hurt in every fight, So Sirkaria

388
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,800
Speaker 2: pre fight, you may be able to come back live Bukowskis.

389
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Speaker 2: The other way I was thinking about betting this though,

390
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 2: was the ghost to decision at two to one. I

391
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Speaker 2: think I Bukowskis wins this. He probably wins by decision.

392
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Speaker 2: I wouldn't necessarily mind having Sir Carria plus two thirty

393
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Speaker 2: on the money line and then having a two to

394
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Speaker 2: one bet on the fight to reach a decision, and

395
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Speaker 2: then hopefully cashing either of those tickets. May not even

396
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 2: stake them. The same may put a slightly smaller bet

397
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 2: on the GTD prop as opposed to this er Carrier

398
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Speaker 2: money line. But do you think there's potentially a value

399
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:07,879
Speaker 2: on ser Carrier based on where he was lying in

400
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: his last fight, getting what I view as an equal

401
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: or lesser opponent this time out, more time to prepare,

402
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 2: and a significant marketing adjustment relative to where he was previously.

403
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,359
Speaker 2: The one dog we do not have necessarily an alignment

404
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 2: on the I'm curious Mobilly thinks about this fight Eric

405
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,160
Speaker 2: mcconaco at about plus two forty. I grabbed them last

406
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 2: night versus Nurse Sultan Ruzaboyev. I talked about guys with

407
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Speaker 2: that round one finisher archetype. Ruzaboyev absolutely fits into that category.

408
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 2: He's very big. Mconago though his last fight came at

409
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Speaker 2: light heavyweight, he won that he is more of a

410
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 2: natural middleweight. He is the smaller man, but I do

411
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 2: think he's capable of handling Ruzboya's power, and I give

412
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: him the grappling upside and the durability or the cardio

413
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 2: advantage down the stretch of this fight. I want two

414
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,119
Speaker 2: to want or better at Eric mcconaco. I also like

415
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 2: him by decision at plus fifty, and I think live

416
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 2: after round one could be a solid entry point as well.

417
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: Mcconico make his the ucadview, But MMA LAB trained. Those

418
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: guys always come in with a very high four not

419
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 2: all of them necessarily championship caliber, but basically all of

420
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 2: them that we see come into the UFC are very

421
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 2: very well rounded fighters with decent skill sets who end

422
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Speaker 2: up sticking around for at least a few fights Billy

423
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Speaker 2: before I move on to the third dog. Any thoughts

424
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Speaker 2: on the mcconicos boy fight.

425
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't watched a ton of tape on it.

426
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 1: It's hard to find anything on mcconico, which is kind

427
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 1: of why I mostly stayed away from this one. Don't

428
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: love a thirty four year old UFC debutant, even though

429
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: we're both betting on a different thirty four year old

430
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: UFC debutant on this card. The only pushback I give

431
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: you is, I'm not sure that mcconico has the grappling edge,

432
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 1: at least without seeing him. Who's a boy of trains

433
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: with Petrowsky and Pat Sabattini and Jeremiah Wells and all

434
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 1: those guys in Philly, and a lot of his wins

435
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 1: before the UFC were submissions. He just came in here

436
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 1: and knocked people out. So I think we might have

437
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: a little bit of a skewed he. Mcconico might be

438
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: the better grappler, just without actually seeing him do it.

439
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 1: I don't feel confident in that assertion makes total sense, though.

440
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 1: I mean, riz aboyev if he gets extended historically not

441
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 1: been great. Maybe that'll be better for him at middleweight.

442
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: He was. He's certainly big enough to fight middleweight, so

443
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 1: maybe less of a weight cut helps. I don't know,

444
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 1: not a lot of strong thoughts. Just I like to

445
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: watch a lot of tape. I have a hard time

446
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 1: betting on a guy who whose fights seemed to have

447
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 1: existed only in his mind or in the minds of

448
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 1: people that saw him that time. Like, I don't know

449
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 1: how we didn't record this stuff, but there we are.

450
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's an internet fighter. I guess that's what we

451
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 2: could call him. He's a tapology fighter because his fights

452
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 2: only exist within the universe of Tapology and shirt Dogs

453
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: databases did have a win on tough Enough last time out.

454
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 2: He was he was supposed to be the main event.

455
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 2: I believe we're tough Enough again this weekend, and the

456
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 2: UC called him up for this Jerusi boy fight, but

457
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 2: Ruza Boyev wasn't booked against anybody. This fight seemingly just

458
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: made out of thin air. I'm not really sure where

459
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 2: it came from. But moving on to earthan under dog

460
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 2: Julius Walker against Alonzo Menifield. Walker, a former college basketball player,

461
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 2: not necessarily the best base for MMA, but he is

462
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 2: twelve years younger. Here he's the bigger athlete forage color,

463
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 2: two inch reach advantage, and Menfield is coming off of

464
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 2: consecutive knockout losses. He's old, he's in his late thirties,

465
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 2: he's slowing athletically, and he hasn't catoed an opponent himself

466
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 2: in over three years. Walker does have the grappling upside.

467
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,439
Speaker 2: He's more of a jiu jitsu guy. I think if

468
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 2: he gets on top he can finish this fight via submission.

469
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 2: He can finish it with ground and pound from top position.

470
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 2: But on the feet, I do think he's going to

471
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 2: be vulnerable, especially early.

472
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 1: Again.

473
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 2: Menfield another guy who fits in that round one finisher category,

474
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 2: but then after round one, Menifield typically finds himself fading,

475
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 2: struggling to maintain that striking output across a fifteen minute fight,

476
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 2: struggling to get guys back down to the ground later

477
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 2: on in fights, says of a juda background, decent takedowns,

478
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 2: but I think defensively, as he gets tired, Walker is

479
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 2: going to wash Manfield in the grappling like plus two

480
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: hundred better pre fight and then live after round one, Billy,

481
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: you're gonna go ahead and take Walker inside the distance

482
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 2: at plus two seventy five, very close to being a

483
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 2: bet for me, manned up on my round robin tickets.

484
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 1: Why do you like this one? I mean he's finished

485
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: every fight he's been in in six and a half

486
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 1: minutes or less, only once seen a second round. And

487
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,959
Speaker 1: it's not even just that. It's that, like you pointed out,

488
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 1: with Manifield getting knocked out in the first couple of

489
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: first round his last couple of fights, if somebody is

490
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: knocked out within a minute, it's probably Alonzo Minifield. That's

491
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: just likelier to happen. The way I see Minifield winning

492
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: here is just kind of tackling him, holding them up

493
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: against the fence, making it a slow, boring fight. And

494
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: if we see that kind of fight, I don't think

495
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 1: Julius Walker wins it. This is a big step up

496
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 1: for him. I will note he fought a Ultimate Fighter

497
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: veteran in his last fight, finished it in under two minutes,

498
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 1: and then before that fought a UFC veteran. Although Bevan

499
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: Lewis is seven and five and went like one in

500
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: four in the UFC, so that almost counts. So he's

501
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: got a pretty tough resume all things considered on his

502
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: way into the UFC. I just don't know what's gonna

503
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: happen to him if he hits a guy and they

504
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: don't die. You know, like for a lot of times,

505
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: when you're fighting these people who are just athletically way

506
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 1: better than you, put them away. You go home, you

507
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: cast your check, everything's happy, and the next thing you know,

508
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: you're in a fight against a guy who's still there

509
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 1: without a lot of experience being in those situations. So

510
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: I wish the price was farther away from his money

511
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: line because it almost makes it feel not worth it.

512
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: I just don't see a decision coming from Julius Walker here.

513
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: Another thing I will know Minafield, former CFL football player,

514
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: so we can settle the age old debate. What is

515
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 1: the better background for MMA is at lower level pro

516
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: football or Division two basketball. So we'll finally get to

517
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: settle that one this weekend, which will be good.

518
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 2: Shouldas Walker also coming down from light or from heavyweight.

519
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 2: I believe right he passed couple fights at light heavyweight.

520
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 2: I think he competed at heavyweight earlier in his career.

521
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: He's a big dude, and he's got room to add

522
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 2: onto this frame. He's only been training MMA for a

523
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 2: few years. He's twenty five years old. He was playing

524
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,239
Speaker 2: college basketball till he was twenty two. So this is

525
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 2: the type of guy whose skill set should level up

526
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: relatively quickly relative to other people his age. You know,

527
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 2: he's barely been training. You're going to see huge leaps

528
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 2: from him from one fight to the next. His last fight,

529
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:22,719
Speaker 2: I want to pull it up.

530
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: It was in one was booked at heavyweight that he

531
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: was supposed to have and then they came this, So

532
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 1: I'm guessing he was going to show up at like

533
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: two twenty five or whatever. So not a true true heavyweight.

534
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's a big guy, so we'll see, you know.

535
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 2: The biggest concern, like, I'm assuming he'll have the cardio

536
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 2: advantage because he's the younger man. But as you pointed out,

537
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: he's basically finished every fight in the first round and

538
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 2: a half Metafield tends to slow down after round one.

539
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 2: Walker may two, especially if he was previously you know,

540
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 2: maybe taking a fight up at heavyweight now cutting back

541
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 2: to two of five. So I do worry about the

542
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 2: cardio dynamic here and Walker not having the ability. This

543
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 2: is a saying later in the fight. But the age

544
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: advantage is the thing I'm leaning on here. Twelve years younger.

545
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 2: As I pointed out earlier, when there's at least a

546
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 2: decade of UFC or decade of age between UFC combatants,

547
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 2: the younger fighter wins about twelve percent more often than

548
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 2: the betting market expects. They just tend to be underrated.

549
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 2: The older fighters have bore of a fan base, more familiarity,

550
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 2: more tape on them. People are dislikelier to bet things

551
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 2: that they're more familiar with against the unknown. I think

552
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: the unknown worth leaning into here at plus money two

553
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: to one plus two ten on walkers what I took

554
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 2: last night. Move on are top props. I've got a

555
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 2: fun one here. I'm going to go a Gene Silva

556
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: by submission a plus seven to fifty. I also bet

557
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 2: him inside the distance at about minus one thirty five

558
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 2: at ESPN. ESPN lets you place fighters to win inside

559
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 2: the distance, but you have to do it as the

560
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 2: same game parlay. You have to hit the fighter money

561
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 2: line and then the ends inside of the distance, no

562
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: oftentimes of that book. Betting those sgps, you actually get

563
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 2: a better price than you do on their inside the

564
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 2: distance odds elsewhere DraftKings FanDuel at MGM. So always take

565
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 2: a look and see what other options books let you

566
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 2: put together in terms of the same game parlay market.

567
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: That is how you bet inside the distance at that

568
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 2: particular book, and I got a number that is about

569
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 2: eighteen cents better than as they it'll get anywhere else.

570
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 2: But I do like Silva to win this by submission

571
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 2: at plus seven fifty. I think he's a big grappling

572
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 2: advantage here over Melsic Pagnasari and fighting nerds trained. We

573
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 2: often see the fighting nerds guys pursue the path of

574
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 2: least resistance against their opponents. They do tend to have

575
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 2: pretty good fight IQ. That said, Silva is I don't

576
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 2: know the best way to put this. There's a few

577
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 2: guys on that team who don't seem like they're mentally

578
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 2: all there and they just want to throw down inside

579
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: the cage, and Jean Silva is somebody I would put

580
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 2: in that category. Mauricio Hoofi probably in that category as well.

581
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: So even though he has the grappling advantage, even though

582
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 2: I think he can finish this fight via submission, there's

583
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 2: a very strong chance that Jean Silva to strike it

584
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: out for fifteen minutes and probably doesn't cover his minus

585
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 2: five hundred et cetera price tag. So as a result,

586
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: I think Melsick the money line sader passed. I think

587
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 2: Melzik a good chance of winning round one on the feet.

588
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 2: He's got a really nasty bodykick. Gene maintains a really high, tight, tight,

589
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: high guard, so he's gonna leave himself open to those bodykicks.

590
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: Probably probably not going to get knocked out with a

591
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 2: head strike, but if this fight does hit the ground,

592
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 2: I think Gene Silva can wrap up a guillotine and

593
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 2: finish this one pretty quickly. I also like him live

594
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 2: after round one if he is striking it out. If

595
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 2: Meltick does win that first round, if you can get

596
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 2: minus two hundred on Gene Silva live after round one

597
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: before he's even attempted to grapple, I think that might

598
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 2: be a solid spot to bet into as well. Billy,

599
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: any thoughts on the Silva versus Meltick fight, and then

600
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: any other top props you want to give out aside

601
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 2: from the walker inside the distance play.

602
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: I absolutely love the Gene Silva submission. It makes all

603
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: the sense in the world. Melsick's only austin the UFC

604
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: was a submission. He has been either taken down or

605
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: submitted in four or five promotional appearances. He's a former kickboxer.

606
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: Like everything is pointing that way. I get what you

607
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 1: mean on the mindset, but like worst case scenario with that,

608
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: you can still hope for a club in sub you know,

609
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: maybe Gene Silva heards Sam and he turns his back

610
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: when he falls down, and we get a cheeky submission

611
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 1: even though he won with his striking, So that one

612
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: makes it ton of sense. I like you, was a

613
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: little bit worried about his money line in case it

614
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 1: turns into a kickboxing match, So that submission prop is

615
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: I think the perfect way to handle this one.

616
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, even you know the durability thing for Melsick, like

617
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,479
Speaker 2: the inside of the distance part on Silva, I project

618
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,959
Speaker 2: value on the under ins inside the distance here. I

619
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 2: wanted to have something tied to this fight finishing by

620
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 2: Ko or Silva winning via Ko. I didn't want to

621
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 2: lay the minus one to eighty though on the fight

622
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 2: to end in ICD or maybe even a little bit

623
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: steeper than that.

624
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: So getting that off.

625
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 2: Market price, I guess I would call it on silver

626
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: inside the distance. I think worth betting minus one fifty

627
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,479
Speaker 2: five north of minus one fifty silver inside the distance.

628
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: Not really as interested Silvia submission the best way to

629
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 2: play this fight. You could also make it a small sprinkle.

630
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 2: If he never decides to grapple, you won't be particularly

631
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: mad about it because he didn't risk a ton on

632
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 2: the lost. Let's move on our best bets for this card.

633
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 2: As I said, you're going to take another shot on

634
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: another underdog, but you're gonna do so on the point spread.

635
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 2: Ricky Simone plus three and a half points at minus

636
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: one forty in a three round fight, just needed to

637
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 2: win one round on each scorecards. Tell me why you

638
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 2: like him?

639
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was really hoping we'd get a better price

640
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: on this because his money line is as high as

641
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: plus two ten at ESPN. Even so, this one's really

642
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: hard to pass up. Very good grappler, you know, just

643
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: attempts a ton of takedowns. Javid Baschrot usually will grapple

644
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: with you, like even if he's not initiating that, he'll

645
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: usually jump into it. And if you look at Ricky

646
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 1: Simone's last three fights, he got knocked out in the

647
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: fifth round, best song, you dong, but it won some

648
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: rounds before that, and at least one judge gave him around,

649
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: and both of his last two losses against people who

650
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: are probably tougher to grapple than Javid Baschrot Baschat doesn't

651
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: finish anyone, just kind of out there point fighting, mixing

652
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: in some takedowns. The odds of him stealing a round

653
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 1: here in a fight that's very likely to go to

654
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: decision is pretty high. So what I did? I put

655
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 1: point seven units to win, half a unit on Ricky

656
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: simone minus one p forty on the point spread, and

657
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 1: then point three units on his money line. That way,

658
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: even if he covers the point spread, slight profit, big

659
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 1: profit if he wins outright. I think he's undervalued just

660
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: as a money line play here for the stylistic matchup,

661
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: but I would prefer the point spread. I'd really prefer

662
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 1: the point spread at plus money or whatever, but we're

663
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 1: not getting that this time around.

664
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I show value on the fight to go to

665
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,479
Speaker 2: decision now it is minus three to fifty. I think

666
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 2: you can use it as a parlay piece. I also

667
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 2: like simone by decision at three to one. That might

668
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: be a round robin piece for me, A couple of

669
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 2: other fights that I view very similarly on this card

670
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 2: that when I modeled them out, seem to have a

671
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 2: lot of public action pointing to the underdog, and as

672
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: a result, I'm not on the underdog. The Andre Philly

673
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 2: Melki Costa fight, and then also the Rob Font John

674
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: Mattsimoto fight. I like both of those fights to go.

675
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: To a decision.

676
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 2: I lean to both underdogs as value to win by decision.

677
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily know if I like any of these

678
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 2: three underdogs to ultimately win the decision, but those are

679
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: the value plays for me. Simon by decision, Philly by decision,

680
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 2: Font by decision, all three of those fights to go

681
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 2: to a decision, the Philly fight, the Font fight Billy

682
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 2: before we get out of here, before I give out

683
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 2: my best bets an he takes on those fights because

684
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: I think the underdogs are going to be very popular

685
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: in both of those matchups, and I think ultimately both

686
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 2: may end up looking like value draps.

687
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually had in my notes, like before the

688
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: market came up, that I was really interested in Rob

689
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 1: Font plus three and a half for almost exact same

690
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: reasons to talk about it was reackuy Simon, but the

691
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: price adjustment is insane. He's minus one ninety five and

692
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: plus three and a half, which I just can't take.

693
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: Like that's too far for a point spread beat and

694
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: Andre Peeley. Yeah, this one's moved around a lot. I

695
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: took Andre Peelly early in the week, hoping the line

696
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: would move en off that I could arbit out on

697
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: the other side. But now I'm kind of left holding

698
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 1: my Andre Peely bag. I'm fine with that. I think

699
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: he probably should win. Malchie Costas look really good when

700
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: they give him bad opponents, but doesn't seem like mid

701
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: UFC level. He seems like he's kind of holding the

702
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: door between low and mid level, where we know Andre

703
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: Pheley at this point he's dangerous. He can beat anyone.

704
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: So I like the feely side a little bit. I

705
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 1: wish I'd been able to time the market movement a

706
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 1: little bit better. And yeah, I'm with you if I

707
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: like the points bread. I guess it makes sense that

708
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: also that guy by decision logically is a solid bed

709
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: if you want something risk here.

710
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: Six year age gap between font or between pheely and

711
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 2: and Malkie, I believe. And then yeah, six year age gap,

712
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 2: but much more significant twelve years between Font and Matsumoto.

713
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: Just worth noting the age angles I discussed earlier with

714
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: everybody seemingly in the public projections that I'm you know,

715
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 2: accumulating data from seeming to be on Font and Feeley.

716
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 2: I'm passing on both of those fights, lean to either

717
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 2: fighter either underdog, to win by decision, probably saving both

718
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: for round robin tickets. If at all, couple bets I

719
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 2: want to give out before we get out of here,

720
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 2: technically best bets, I would file these under best of

721
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 2: the rest or as equivalent to anything else I've given

722
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 2: out on this card, but probably you know the top

723
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: two bets if I had to choose them amongst one,

724
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 2: I'm betting this weekend my two favorite bets Austin Vanderford

725
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 2: currently can get him about minus one ten. I took

726
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: minus one oh three. He opened at plus money. This

727
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 2: is a very late booking, to the point where props

728
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 2: aren't even up yet for this fight, but his opponent

729
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 2: was actually moved off of a booking from last week

730
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: back to this week. He pulled out of that fight

731
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 2: moved back to this week. Nikola I Verretnikov and Verretnikov

732
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: is really bad once you put him on bottom. Vanderford

733
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:56,240
Speaker 2: is a decent wrestler. He's ania national champion. I don't

734
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 2: like his striking defense. I think Nikola I can absolutely

735
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,280
Speaker 2: hurt him, finish him on the but once Vanderford starts

736
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: landing takedowns, I think he's going to take over. At

737
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: the momentum of this fight. Should be able to press

738
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 2: him up against the cage, should be able to control

739
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 2: from top position, and then Vanderford live after round one.

740
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 2: The longer this fight goes, the better I think it

741
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 2: plays out for him. Also, coming down from middleweight to

742
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 2: wealterweight for this fight, essentially spent most of his career

743
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 2: at middleweight, had some good wins over in Bell Tour

744
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: out of age particularly well. I do think he's a

745
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 2: pretty good wrestler, and I think getting essentially what was

746
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 2: you know, the grappling upside, all the grappling upside of

747
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 2: plus money now getting it at a picker price, I

748
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 2: think Vanderford clear side. I would bet him up to

749
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: about minus one twenty, project him closer minus one thirty,

750
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 2: and then Eon Kotzalava at plus one p fifty two

751
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 2: against Ebo Aslon I mentioned that as on Ko one

752
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: against her carrier earlier. I think that's provided value both

753
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: on both against Aslon and oncer Carria. Those KOs are

754
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: just not repeatable and eventually you are going to run

755
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 2: into guys as you move up the ladder of the

756
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 2: UFC ranking who can take those punches, and Ebo Aslon,

757
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,720
Speaker 2: once he goes against the guy who can take those punches,

758
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 2: his game is gonna fall apart in the second and

759
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 2: third round. He can't grapple, he doesn't have good cardio,

760
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: he has good power, He's the bigger man two inch taller,

761
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: too inch reach advantage. But if Kutalaba survives that first round,

762
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 2: I think he takes over with the grappling. I think

763
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: he actually has the better cardio of the two, which

764
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: is very rare for an Ian Kutzalaba fight. He faded

765
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,760
Speaker 2: in the third round of his last fight. It actually

766
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: the first time we've seen him fight more measured, more

767
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 2: conservatively ended up winning a decision. Really like to see

768
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: the development and improvement in his skill set and in

769
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 2: his mindset in terms of approaching these fights, and it's

770
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 2: a fight where he may have a rare cardio advantage

771
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 2: over his opponents, so Ian Kutzalaba want plus one forty

772
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 2: five or better, may consider him live after round one

773
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 2: as well, considering or once I can see how both

774
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 2: guys look near the end of the round, how they

775
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 2: look on the tools. But Billy any thoughts on Koutolaba

776
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 2: a plus one fifty two. I know you liked Vanderford

777
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 2: and not sure what price target you like up to.

778
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on Vanderford. Retnikoff got taken down

779
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: four times by Michael Morales on the Contender series, and

780
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: Michael Morales is like a pure striker. He strikes with

781
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: everybody else, So that tells you both. I mean how

782
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: much he motivates opponents to want to take him down,

783
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,879
Speaker 1: but also how relatively easy it is. I actually took

784
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 1: the ebo os on side. I got him at minus

785
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: one fifty earlier in the week. Would absolutely not take

786
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: minus one eighty or minus one ninety on that now.

787
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: If it moves even more, I might just arm out

788
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: and take a little profit either way. To me, it

789
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 1: feels like a pretty pure striker versus grappler match. Not

790
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 1: that Ewon can't strike, but he's at such a power

791
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 1: disadvantage and his chin seems to be rapidly leaving him

792
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: even though he's only thirty one, So those two things

793
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 1: make it hard. And then I was saying Ebo has

794
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: defended every takedown he's faced in the UFC so far,

795
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 1: but like they all came from Antonterkli, so we don't.

796
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 1: It's more of a question mark, i'd say, than a weakness.

797
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: Might be a weakness we might see this time. But yeah,

798
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: fairly binary fight that one for DFS. Either Eon gets

799
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 1: takedowns and finishes it pretty fast or he gets knocked

800
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: out right away. But yeah, the price is at now

801
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think that's the better side, and

802
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 1: maybe we'll see if I can get both sides and

803
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: just lock into profit either way.

804
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 2: A lot of fights heavily used to go to a decision,

805
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 2: or at least that I expect to go to a

806
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 2: decision on this card. That's a great shout out on

807
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 2: the kudulaba As on fight for DFS purposes, I would

808
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 2: assume the Walker Menfield fight would probably be good for

809
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 2: you for DFS purposes.

810
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: Any other ones that you're going to be targeting for

811
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 1: DFS this weekend, Alan Hernandez seems like another good one.

812
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:35,240
Speaker 1: Because if I think it's either Alan Early or Anthony

813
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 1: Hernandez doing a morob impression, kind of either way, the

814
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: winner gets a big score there. Main event's kind of

815
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: fun too, Honestly, similar logic in the main event because

816
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: song quick knockout or a lot of damage, or Henry

817
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: Sujudo just lands twenty six takedowns that he holds for

818
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: four seconds each. Either way, we're good with that. So yeah,

819
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 1: those are kind of like the four where I want

820
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: exposure to. Kind of a tough week when we're down

821
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 1: to twelve fights, there's a lot hard to make a

822
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: unique lineup, so you gotta get a little bit off

823
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: the board. I would even consider stack. I would even

824
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 1: consider stacking the main event because there's a case that

825
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: Sahudo gets takedowns for three or four rounds and gets

826
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: knocked out late. Both guys end up with a good

827
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: score even in a loss. So kind of where I'm

828
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 1: at right now.

829
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 2: No great points, I considering I had those three fights

830
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 2: all over like minus three hundred, you know, projected to

831
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 2: reach a decision. Yeah, again, the font Mattsimoto, Simone bach Rot,

832
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 2: and Philly Costa, I'm probably not going to pick any

833
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 2: of those six fighters in DFS lineups, maybe maybe one

834
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 2: of them like skipping three of those fights. Now I'm

835
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 2: down to nine, so let's find fights focused on. So yeah,

836
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: I appreciate you going a little bit more into the

837
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 2: DFS angles for this weekend, but that'll do it for

838
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 2: a USC betting preview. You can find more USC betting

839
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 2: content for both Billy and myself on Action network dot

840
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 2: com and in the Action Network app. And you remember

841
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 2: if you instantly tail some of the bets we discussed

842
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 2: on today's show, look for the quick slip link in

843
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 2: the podcast and the video descriptions, or visit Action network

844
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: dot com slash bat now. Don't forget to download the

845
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 2: free award winning Action over Gap and sign up for

846
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks, analysis, and

847
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 2: quicker bet notifications. Best of luck with all your best

848
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 2: this weekend, and enjoy the violence. Thank you for listening.

849
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 1: See you next time. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

850
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,880
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851
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,839
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852
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:28,680
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