WEBVTT - The Virus Dogs Trump's Campaign 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:08.000 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:13.160 and fifteen since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:18.239 main story. President Donald Trump has resumed campaigning just over 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:22.439 a week after testing positive for COVID nineteen, but it 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:26.279 remains to be seen whether his body and his campaign 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:32.800 can escape unscathed from the effects of the virus. But first, 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:45.800 here's what happened in virus news today. China reported a 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:50.000 new cluster of coronavirus infections in an eastern ports city, 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:55.360 breaking a two month streak without local transmission. The city, 0:00:55.800 --> 0:01:00.840 located in Shandong Province, found three asymptomatic case is linked 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.880 to a hospital that treats COVID nineteen patients from abroad. 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.600 More tests uncovered a cluster of twelve cases so far, 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:14.880 making it China's biggest in months. It shows how difficult 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:18.600 it is to stamp out the coronavirus in any one country. 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.679 When outbreaks are flaring in places like India and the 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:26.840 US and rebounding in Europe. Several nations in the Asia 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:31.479 Pacific region, like Thailand or New Zealand, have also maintained 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:35.480 long stretches of virus free periods, only to see the 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:41.720 pathogen rear its head again. New research suggests the coronavirus 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:45.560 can remain infectious for weeks on our paper, currency, and 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:51.160 handheld screens, among other places. Scientists at the Australian Center 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.800 for Disease Preparedness showed it could live on plastic bank 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:58.680 notes and glass found on mobile phones for twenty eight 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:03.280 days at room tem picture that compares with seventeen day 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:07.720 survival for the flu virus. Scientists say the virus is 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:11.320 extremely robust and that their research can help them more 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:18.440 accurately predict and mitigate the pandemic spread. Finally, the US 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.160 death rate from coronavirus infections is the highest in the 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:26.280 developed world. That's according to a study of global mortality 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.959 rates published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:34.520 Early in the outbreak, the country's mortality rate from COVID 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:38.640 nineteen was lower than in many other hard hit countries, 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:43.720 including the UK, Spain, and the Netherlands. But as spring 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:48.160 turned to summer, the US largely failed to embrace public 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:52.880 health policies that have helped other countries reduce their death rates. 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:58.120 More than one hundred thousand fewer Americans would have died 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.560 if the US had the same mortality rate as the Netherlands. 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:06.440 The US leads the world in total coronavirus deaths, with 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:10.799 nearly two hundred and fifteen thousand, according to data from 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:20.160 Johns Hopkins University and Now for today's main story, President 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:23.680 Donald Trump returned to the campaign trail today, a little 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:27.800 over a week after testing positive for the coronavirus. He 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:31.079 said he's quote in great shape as he plans a 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.239 rally in Orlando, Florida, to kick off at least four 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:40.400 straight days of political events. Trump's jam packed itinerary shows 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:43.800 how much his campaign hopes to reverse polling trends that 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:49.240 show him falling further behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:53.480 as the President prepares to address supporters amid record US 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:57.640 deaths from the pandemic, the virus stays with him, both 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:03.000 literally and figuratively. I spoke to Michelle fake Cortez, who 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:06.480 wrote in Bloomberg Business Week that Trump's handling of his 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:09.880 own infection and the cluster of infections of the White 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:21.839 House is a microcosm of the country's overall pandemic response. Today, 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:25.080 President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Florida, 0:04:25.320 --> 0:04:28.320 and that's just a little over a week since he 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:32.080 announced he had tested positive for COVID nineteen on October two. 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.480 Is that a remarkably fast timeline or or what are 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:39.960 we looking at here? The CDC does say that people 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:43.839 who test positive for coronavirus should isolate themselves for about 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.200 ten days, that they will be capable of transmitting the 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:49.919 virus for a little bit over a week to other people, 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.000 and so they should, you know, remain by themselves and 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.440 isolated for that period of time. It's a little bit 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.080 different with President Trump because of the cocktail of medicines 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:01.080 that he got. There is some thought perhaps the steroids 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:03.800 or he was taking could make him infectious for a 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:07.040 longer period of time. On the flip side, the doctors 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.240 have been really tracking him very closely. They've been doing 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.000 a lot of tests that look at the levels and 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:16.479 types of antibodies that he has in his body, and 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:20.279 it does look like he does not have virus that's 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.480 replicating in a way that could be infectious to other people. 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:26.600 So it does seem like it's okay for him to 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:30.159 get out there at this point. And speaking of that 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:35.040 experimental cocktail, of drugs. It sounds like even if he 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:39.839 is not contagious, he still potentially might be feeling effects 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:43.880 from the virus. Or is he potentially experiencing any effects 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:48.200 from these treatments. The President could absolutely still be suffering 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:51.359 complications from either the virus or the medicines that he took, 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:53.839 and in some cases he could be getting benefit from 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.880 the medicines that he received, a benefit that might not 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:00.560 persist once he stops taking them, specifically the decks metha zone, 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.159 the steroid that he was given. The other thing that 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.080 I think is really important to keep in mind here 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:09.080 is it seems like the President really did thread the 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:12.640 needle when it came to this cocktail of medicines that 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:16.960 he received. He falls squarely into the high risk category. 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:21.000 He's older, he's obese, he's not physically active, he doesn't 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:25.159 have a good diet. There are other health complications that 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:28.800 he has had that should have made him particularly vulnerable, 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:32.440 and he seems to have done much much better than 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:39.040 the average person in his condition when it comes to coronavirus. Now, 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.960 the way that they went about that he received this 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:48.200 monoclonal antibody from Regeneran that basically was an early start 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:52.120 to the immune system. Then he got remdesevie, which is 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:56.160 an anti viral, so that's fighting the virus itself. And 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:59.920 then he got the steroid, which calms down any kind 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:04.040 of over active response to the virus. So the idea 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:07.479 that these medicines were given so closely together and each 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:11.800 seemed to be really potent for him is great news 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:15.720 for the world that there might be an avenue to 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:19.960 actually getting this virus under control. The question is going 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:22.680 to be who gets that treatment and is it going 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:25.520 to be like this for everyone? And again, going back 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.600 to your point earlier, we don't really know how the 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:34.920 president is doing. We have gotten some reports from his doctors. 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:38.000 We've seen him in public a few times, but certainly 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:40.760 we haven't seen him for extended periods of time, and 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:43.880 his doctors have not been forthcoming, so we don't really 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:48.080 know to what extent he's still suffering from the virus 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:51.000 and it's after effects, or if in fact he has 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:57.280 truly recovered. And you raised a great point about perhaps 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:01.880 the unique treatment that the president received, to what extent 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:06.560 does this differ from, say, a standard treatment for someone 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:10.840 who comes in with a positive COVID nineteen test. Doctors 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:16.000 believe that the most potent treatment the President Trump received 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:21.120 was the monoclonal antibody from Regeneraan. That therapy is not 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:25.720 currently available to anyone outside of clinical trials, with the 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:29.320 exception of a handful of patients ten or fewer who 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:32.360 have gotten it on some type of a compassionate use basis. 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:35.719 So the answer to the question to what extent can 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:39.200 the average American get this, the answer is zero. The 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.720 average American has no access to this product from Regeneration. 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.360 There are others that are also in development, one from 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:49.480 Eli Lily, one from Astra Zeneca. Those also are not 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.880 available outside of a clinical trial. There's not that many 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:59.000 places where these medicines are being studied, so there's limitations. 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:02.959 Not everybody can drive to those hospitals. Once you get 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.480 to the hospital, you get enrolled in the clinical trial. 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.400 Half the people get the therapy, half the people get 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:11.800 a placebo. So even then you don't know if you're 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:14.880 going to get it. So what President Trump got a 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:18.839 hundred percent access to the medicine. Literally no one else 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.199 in the world has. Obviously, we have seen that the 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:25.640 President is very eager to get back onto the campaign trail. 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:30.439 But despite say, a scheduled rally and other in person events. 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:34.240 This development has actually led to the cancelation of the 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:37.840 upcoming debate with Joe Biden. In terms of the health 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:42.360 risks that an in person debate could hold, what are 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:47.520 the threats of this in person debate format? The risk 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:52.199 from President Trump is likely very low. The thing is 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.440 is that it's not just President Trump when it comes 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:58.000 to these debates, all of these all of these candidates 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:00.880 have a whole host of people who are helping them 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.160 and a whole other group of people who were coming 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:08.000 to support them. And it's that expanded group that is 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:11.680 the potential threat. We saw with the first debate that 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:15.160 President Trump's supporters and his family members came in with 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:19.240 masks on and took their masks off. We know at 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:22.120 that period of time they were all in a uniquely 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:26.440 vulnerable situation and they were potentially putting other people at risk. 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:31.959 It's that situation that is potentially harmful. President Trump could 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:36.040 have infected other people in his family, other of his supporters, 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:39.760 others of his helpers, and those people could have been 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:42.920 harboring the virus for days or weeks and then turned 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:47.480 positive before a debate, and then their presence at the 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.760 debate stage could be passing the virus along to other people. 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.800 It also could have worked the opposite way. Just because 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:57.600 we don't know that Joe Biden wasn't was positive. Just 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.440 because we know that Joe Biden has not been infected 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.559 with the virus doesn't mean that somebody in his entourage 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:08.840 couldn't also be positive. What do you think, if any, 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:13.680 is the relationship between President Trump's personal response to having 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:17.600 COVID nineteen and how he has handled the pandemic in 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:23.120 the US overall. President Trump's personal philosophy is very evident 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:27.840 when you see him speaking almost in any circumstance. He 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:31.160 is a person who tends to put a positive spin 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:36.200 on things. When he's talking about his own experiences and 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.760 his own life and what he's hoping to do. He 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:42.880 likes to emphasize the positive. He wants to go into 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:45.200 a battle, he wants to win. He's looking on the 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:49.360 bright side. We know from Bob Woodward's book that from 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.079 very early on in the pandemic he did not want 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.120 to take a negative tach. He didn't want to scare people. 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:58.280 He wanted to be calm and reassuring and have a 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:01.160 positive outlook, this virus is just going to go away 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:03.640 at some point, We're not going to have it. We're 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:05.200 all going to get through this. We'll get to the 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.880 other side of it. All of those things are true. 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:10.680 The question is is we have no idea when that's 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.800 going to be. We might not be through to the 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.080 other side of it and be done with this virus. 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.199 We might get through to the other side and realize 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:19.640 it's something we just have to live with. The Other 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.480 thing that's very consistent about President Trump is he doesn't 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:26.920 like bureaucracies. He doesn't like the standard protocols that are 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.120 in place. And the huge crisis that came out of 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:34.360 that because of this pandemic is that the exact way 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:37.199 that we would have been able to best handle it 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:41.320 is through the efficient and effective and powerful use of 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:45.320 government bureaucracies who have been working for decades for this 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:50.280 exact moment. There were processes in place. There are public 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:56.160 servants who have been designing ways to combat viral respiratory 0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:58.880 outbreak for years and years and years, and they knew 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:02.160 exactly what to do. But because the President was taking 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:08.400 a more optimistic, hopeful approach and an anti bureaucracy approach. 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.200 It basically cut the process off at the knees of 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:16.120 what would have been helpful. So President Trump was hopeful 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.720 for himself. He believed that because everyone around him was 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:23.280 being tested, that he wasn't vulnerable, that he couldn't get infected. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:27.400 He believed that the virus was not going to stick around. 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.600 Once it got warm outside, it would go away. All 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:38.200 of these hopeful, idealistic and incorrect ideas did ultimately hurt 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:43.160 the president and our country. So his hopeful nature for 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:47.240 him personally might have might have actually paid off, but 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:49.600 for the rest of the country, with over two hundred 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:57.800 thousand deaths, clearly it has not. That was Michelle fake Cortez. 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:00.720 And that's it for our show. To day. For coverage 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.040 of the outbreak from one hundred and twenty bureaus around 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:07.720 the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:09.920 you like the show, please leave us a review and 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.600 a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:17.360 way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:21.880 Prognosis Daily Edition is produced by Tophur Foreheads Jordan Gospoure, 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:27.200 Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:31.560 reported by Michelle fake Cortez. Original music by Leo Sidrian. 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:36.000 Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:39.840 is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.