1 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: and fifteen since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 3 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: main story. President Donald Trump has resumed campaigning just over 4 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 1: a week after testing positive for COVID nineteen, but it 5 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 1: remains to be seen whether his body and his campaign 6 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: can escape unscathed from the effects of the virus. But first, 7 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: here's what happened in virus news today. China reported a 8 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: new cluster of coronavirus infections in an eastern ports city, 9 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: breaking a two month streak without local transmission. The city, 10 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: located in Shandong Province, found three asymptomatic case is linked 11 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: to a hospital that treats COVID nineteen patients from abroad. 12 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: More tests uncovered a cluster of twelve cases so far, 13 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: making it China's biggest in months. It shows how difficult 14 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: it is to stamp out the coronavirus in any one country. 15 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 1: When outbreaks are flaring in places like India and the 16 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: US and rebounding in Europe. Several nations in the Asia 17 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: Pacific region, like Thailand or New Zealand, have also maintained 18 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: long stretches of virus free periods, only to see the 19 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: pathogen rear its head again. New research suggests the coronavirus 20 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: can remain infectious for weeks on our paper, currency, and 21 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: handheld screens, among other places. Scientists at the Australian Center 22 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: for Disease Preparedness showed it could live on plastic bank 23 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: notes and glass found on mobile phones for twenty eight 24 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: days at room tem picture that compares with seventeen day 25 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: survival for the flu virus. Scientists say the virus is 26 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: extremely robust and that their research can help them more 27 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: accurately predict and mitigate the pandemic spread. Finally, the US 28 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: death rate from coronavirus infections is the highest in the 29 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: developed world. That's according to a study of global mortality 30 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,959 Speaker 1: rates published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. 31 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: Early in the outbreak, the country's mortality rate from COVID 32 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: nineteen was lower than in many other hard hit countries, 33 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: including the UK, Spain, and the Netherlands. But as spring 34 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: turned to summer, the US largely failed to embrace public 35 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: health policies that have helped other countries reduce their death rates. 36 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: More than one hundred thousand fewer Americans would have died 37 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: if the US had the same mortality rate as the Netherlands. 38 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: The US leads the world in total coronavirus deaths, with 39 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 1: nearly two hundred and fifteen thousand, according to data from 40 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins University and Now for today's main story, President 41 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump returned to the campaign trail today, a little 42 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 1: over a week after testing positive for the coronavirus. He 43 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 1: said he's quote in great shape as he plans a 44 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: rally in Orlando, Florida, to kick off at least four 45 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: straight days of political events. Trump's jam packed itinerary shows 46 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: how much his campaign hopes to reverse polling trends that 47 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: show him falling further behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But 48 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: as the President prepares to address supporters amid record US 49 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: deaths from the pandemic, the virus stays with him, both 50 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: literally and figuratively. I spoke to Michelle fake Cortez, who 51 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: wrote in Bloomberg Business Week that Trump's handling of his 52 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: own infection and the cluster of infections of the White 53 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: House is a microcosm of the country's overall pandemic response. Today, 54 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Florida, 55 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: and that's just a little over a week since he 56 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: announced he had tested positive for COVID nineteen on October two. 57 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: Is that a remarkably fast timeline or or what are 58 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: we looking at here? The CDC does say that people 59 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: who test positive for coronavirus should isolate themselves for about 60 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: ten days, that they will be capable of transmitting the 61 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 1: virus for a little bit over a week to other people, 62 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: and so they should, you know, remain by themselves and 63 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: isolated for that period of time. It's a little bit 64 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: different with President Trump because of the cocktail of medicines 65 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: that he got. There is some thought perhaps the steroids 66 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 1: or he was taking could make him infectious for a 67 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: longer period of time. On the flip side, the doctors 68 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: have been really tracking him very closely. They've been doing 69 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: a lot of tests that look at the levels and 70 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 1: types of antibodies that he has in his body, and 71 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: it does look like he does not have virus that's 72 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: replicating in a way that could be infectious to other people. 73 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 1: So it does seem like it's okay for him to 74 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 1: get out there at this point. And speaking of that 75 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: experimental cocktail, of drugs. It sounds like even if he 76 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: is not contagious, he still potentially might be feeling effects 77 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: from the virus. Or is he potentially experiencing any effects 78 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: from these treatments. The President could absolutely still be suffering 79 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 1: complications from either the virus or the medicines that he took, 80 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: and in some cases he could be getting benefit from 81 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: the medicines that he received, a benefit that might not 82 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: persist once he stops taking them, specifically the decks metha zone, 83 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 1: the steroid that he was given. The other thing that 84 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: I think is really important to keep in mind here 85 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: is it seems like the President really did thread the 86 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: needle when it came to this cocktail of medicines that 87 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: he received. He falls squarely into the high risk category. 88 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: He's older, he's obese, he's not physically active, he doesn't 89 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: have a good diet. There are other health complications that 90 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: he has had that should have made him particularly vulnerable, 91 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: and he seems to have done much much better than 92 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: the average person in his condition when it comes to coronavirus. Now, 93 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: the way that they went about that he received this 94 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: monoclonal antibody from Regeneran that basically was an early start 95 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: to the immune system. Then he got remdesevie, which is 96 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: an anti viral, so that's fighting the virus itself. And 97 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: then he got the steroid, which calms down any kind 98 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 1: of over active response to the virus. So the idea 99 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,479 Speaker 1: that these medicines were given so closely together and each 100 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: seemed to be really potent for him is great news 101 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: for the world that there might be an avenue to 102 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: actually getting this virus under control. The question is going 103 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: to be who gets that treatment and is it going 104 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: to be like this for everyone? And again, going back 105 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: to your point earlier, we don't really know how the 106 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: president is doing. We have gotten some reports from his doctors. 107 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: We've seen him in public a few times, but certainly 108 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: we haven't seen him for extended periods of time, and 109 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: his doctors have not been forthcoming, so we don't really 110 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: know to what extent he's still suffering from the virus 111 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: and it's after effects, or if in fact he has 112 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: truly recovered. And you raised a great point about perhaps 113 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: the unique treatment that the president received, to what extent 114 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: does this differ from, say, a standard treatment for someone 115 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: who comes in with a positive COVID nineteen test. Doctors 116 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: believe that the most potent treatment the President Trump received 117 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: was the monoclonal antibody from Regeneraan. That therapy is not 118 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: currently available to anyone outside of clinical trials, with the 119 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: exception of a handful of patients ten or fewer who 120 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: have gotten it on some type of a compassionate use basis. 121 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: So the answer to the question to what extent can 122 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: the average American get this, the answer is zero. The 123 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: average American has no access to this product from Regeneration. 124 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: There are others that are also in development, one from 125 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: Eli Lily, one from Astra Zeneca. Those also are not 126 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: available outside of a clinical trial. There's not that many 127 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: places where these medicines are being studied, so there's limitations. 128 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 1: Not everybody can drive to those hospitals. Once you get 129 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: to the hospital, you get enrolled in the clinical trial. 130 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: Half the people get the therapy, half the people get 131 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: a placebo. So even then you don't know if you're 132 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: going to get it. So what President Trump got a 133 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 1: hundred percent access to the medicine. Literally no one else 134 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 1: in the world has. Obviously, we have seen that the 135 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: President is very eager to get back onto the campaign trail. 136 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:30,439 Speaker 1: But despite say, a scheduled rally and other in person events. 137 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: This development has actually led to the cancelation of the 138 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: upcoming debate with Joe Biden. In terms of the health 139 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: risks that an in person debate could hold, what are 140 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: the threats of this in person debate format? The risk 141 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 1: from President Trump is likely very low. The thing is 142 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: is that it's not just President Trump when it comes 143 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: to these debates, all of these all of these candidates 144 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: have a whole host of people who are helping them 145 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: and a whole other group of people who were coming 146 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: to support them. And it's that expanded group that is 147 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: the potential threat. We saw with the first debate that 148 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: President Trump's supporters and his family members came in with 149 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 1: masks on and took their masks off. We know at 150 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: that period of time they were all in a uniquely 151 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 1: vulnerable situation and they were potentially putting other people at risk. 152 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 1: It's that situation that is potentially harmful. President Trump could 153 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: have infected other people in his family, other of his supporters, 154 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: others of his helpers, and those people could have been 155 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: harboring the virus for days or weeks and then turned 156 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: positive before a debate, and then their presence at the 157 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: debate stage could be passing the virus along to other people. 158 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: It also could have worked the opposite way. Just because 159 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: we don't know that Joe Biden wasn't was positive. Just 160 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: because we know that Joe Biden has not been infected 161 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 1: with the virus doesn't mean that somebody in his entourage 162 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: couldn't also be positive. What do you think, if any, 163 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: is the relationship between President Trump's personal response to having 164 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen and how he has handled the pandemic in 165 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: the US overall. President Trump's personal philosophy is very evident 166 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 1: when you see him speaking almost in any circumstance. He 167 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: is a person who tends to put a positive spin 168 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: on things. When he's talking about his own experiences and 169 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: his own life and what he's hoping to do. He 170 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: likes to emphasize the positive. He wants to go into 171 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: a battle, he wants to win. He's looking on the 172 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: bright side. We know from Bob Woodward's book that from 173 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 1: very early on in the pandemic he did not want 174 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: to take a negative tach. He didn't want to scare people. 175 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: He wanted to be calm and reassuring and have a 176 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: positive outlook, this virus is just going to go away 177 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 1: at some point, We're not going to have it. We're 178 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 1: all going to get through this. We'll get to the 179 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: other side of it. All of those things are true. 180 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: The question is is we have no idea when that's 181 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: going to be. We might not be through to the 182 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: other side of it and be done with this virus. 183 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 1: We might get through to the other side and realize 184 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: it's something we just have to live with. The Other 185 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: thing that's very consistent about President Trump is he doesn't 186 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: like bureaucracies. He doesn't like the standard protocols that are 187 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 1: in place. And the huge crisis that came out of 188 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: that because of this pandemic is that the exact way 189 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 1: that we would have been able to best handle it 190 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: is through the efficient and effective and powerful use of 191 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 1: government bureaucracies who have been working for decades for this 192 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: exact moment. There were processes in place. There are public 193 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 1: servants who have been designing ways to combat viral respiratory 194 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: outbreak for years and years and years, and they knew 195 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: exactly what to do. But because the President was taking 196 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: a more optimistic, hopeful approach and an anti bureaucracy approach. 197 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 1: It basically cut the process off at the knees of 198 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: what would have been helpful. So President Trump was hopeful 199 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 1: for himself. He believed that because everyone around him was 200 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: being tested, that he wasn't vulnerable, that he couldn't get infected. 201 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: He believed that the virus was not going to stick around. 202 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: Once it got warm outside, it would go away. All 203 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 1: of these hopeful, idealistic and incorrect ideas did ultimately hurt 204 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: the president and our country. So his hopeful nature for 205 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: him personally might have might have actually paid off, but 206 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: for the rest of the country, with over two hundred 207 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: thousand deaths, clearly it has not. That was Michelle fake Cortez. 208 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: And that's it for our show. To day. For coverage 209 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: of the outbreak from one hundred and twenty bureaus around 210 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if 211 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: you like the show, please leave us a review and 212 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 213 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 214 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: Prognosis Daily Edition is produced by Tophur Foreheads Jordan Gospoure, 215 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 216 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: reported by Michelle fake Cortez. Original music by Leo Sidrian. 217 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 218 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.