WEBVTT - Brookings Study of AI Impact on Jobs

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio work every day. So, as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, jobs and focus today, Uh, this morning again

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<v Speaker 1>people talking about what I missed that when talking about jobs,

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<v Speaker 1>one subject that reliably comes up is AI, artificial intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>and it's impact on labor markets. I want to point

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<v Speaker 1>out that software to automate manual task Jason, you might

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<v Speaker 1>find this industry interesting, is growing at twenty per year,

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<v Speaker 1>likely to reach about five billion. So I mean it's

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<v Speaker 1>a it's a gramming impact numbers, Yeah, real numbers. So

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about this with Mark Ummureau. He is Senior

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<v Speaker 1>Fellow and policy director at the Metropolitan Policy Program at

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<v Speaker 1>book Brookings on the phone from Washington, d C. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>rushing to get to you because I am curious how

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<v Speaker 1>you see all of this. Nice to uh have you

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<v Speaker 1>joining us on this Friday, Mark, So, I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about AI and the impact it's having on

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<v Speaker 1>the late remarket. What's some of the latest researcher writings

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<v Speaker 1>that you have seen or done on this? Hey, well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's great to be here. So you're rushing to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure that your job remains while you finished it. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>so okay, So so uh you know, this research that

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<v Speaker 1>we've done focuses on AI specifically. This isn't about broader

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<v Speaker 1>forms of robotic and other kinds of automation. So AI

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<v Speaker 1>specifically has its own particular uh footprint or work using

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<v Speaker 1>patent data to identify on affected occupation shows that, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing has a lot of AI coming, but it's the

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<v Speaker 1>white collar workforce that may be most involved with it.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what does that look like? You know, what

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<v Speaker 1>what would it look like to to someone who's in

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<v Speaker 1>a white collar profession now or maybe more importantly, a

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<v Speaker 1>younger person who's going into college right now, and thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about how this may affect the work force of the

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<v Speaker 1>next fifteen years. Uh, it doesn't. What it doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily is that all the jobs and all those occupations

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<v Speaker 1>will go away. And this is things like market research,

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<v Speaker 1>sales managers, computer programming, financial advice, management analysts. All of

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<v Speaker 1>those are going to be heavily involved with AI. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that necessarily means that that they will be uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, liquidated in some way. AUTO involvement doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily erosion of work. But we think it's definitely suggests

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<v Speaker 1>coming uh flux and change, and and those coming into

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<v Speaker 1>these occupations better be ready to roll with it, because

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<v Speaker 1>at minimum, these technologies are going to change what people

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<v Speaker 1>are doing, speed up change, and require new skills learning well.

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<v Speaker 1>And a lot of what we've heard in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>conversations with various guests that you know we're all going

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<v Speaker 1>to be working are not all of us, but maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people are gonna be working alongside AI

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<v Speaker 1>uh and getting an assistant what they're doing, and so

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<v Speaker 1>those menial tasks are being done by computers, by AI

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<v Speaker 1>and so on, and it frees us up to do

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<v Speaker 1>more complicated things and do more of it. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely and it can be very much persuaded that that's true.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's harder to see the upside in some

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<v Speaker 1>ways for individual workers in a factory and where robotics

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<v Speaker 1>comes in here. I think it very much is uh

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<v Speaker 1>possibility that workers going to be freed up from the

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<v Speaker 1>most boring drudgery, you know, cranking out standard reports every month, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>get out from under that and get more into the interpretation,

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<v Speaker 1>into the human interaction, the networking UH and all of that.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's true. Uh, I think there will be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of change along the way. You know, in

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<v Speaker 1>this is in our in our horizon is more than

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<v Speaker 1>just the next five years. We're talking over ten, fifteen,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years. And so Mark, how should we you know,

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<v Speaker 1>those of us who are mid career, how should we

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<v Speaker 1>be thinking about either different training or you know, different

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<v Speaker 1>ways of looking at the world. Are preparing ourselves for

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<v Speaker 1>this different sort of future very much big changes ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's the need to really get more focused

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<v Speaker 1>on adding value, doing what the machines can't do. So

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<v Speaker 1>if a machine can do it, it can probably do

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<v Speaker 1>it better than you can. So find we need to

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<v Speaker 1>focus on the things that they can't do, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>often things around judgment, UH, ethics, leadership, motivation, interaction, interpersonal exchange,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, gauging UH complex situations. So I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>there is a huge scope of work, all of the

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<v Speaker 1>creative aspects of jobs can will likely be resilient for

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<v Speaker 1>a good long time. So I think I think though

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<v Speaker 1>it is going to require more focus on what exactly

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<v Speaker 1>you know, humans are bringing to each job. If you

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<v Speaker 1>had to pick one industry, where AI and the type

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<v Speaker 1>of work that you're saying will be displaced as a result.

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<v Speaker 1>What would it be. Well, our research shows that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>marketing and sales are going to be heavily involved. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't know if it's negative disruptions, but clearly very

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<v Speaker 1>high scores in our forecast of association with AI And

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<v Speaker 1>I think I think you can see why there's prediction

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<v Speaker 1>of uh, you know, uh interest in things, prediction of sales.

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<v Speaker 1>All of these things can be done, so I think,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think they're some reporting. I think people in

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<v Speaker 1>marketing and sales see some of this coming, but they

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<v Speaker 1>believe that they will have a human role in the future.

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<v Speaker 1>But they know there's a lot of change coming. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting insights. Thank you so much. Mark Morrow, senior

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<v Speaker 1>fellow and policy director at the Metrotol Metropolitan excuse me,

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<v Speaker 1>a policy program at Brookings C, joined us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Washington, d C.