Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gurdusky, Episode
Speaker 1: thirty one. Thank you all for being here yet again.
Speaker 1: It is June, summer is officially here. Half the year
Speaker 1: is over, which is insane to me. Didn't feel like
Speaker 1: it's been six months, but we are getting there, and
Speaker 1: it's been a busy week. There were a lot of
Speaker 1: conferences going on. There was a Bitcoin conference over in
Speaker 1: Vegas that the vice president spoke at. I had a
Speaker 1: few friends there. My buddy Mike Cernovich was kind of
Speaker 1: freaking out on Twitter about the future of AI poses
Speaker 1: to jobs and humanity, and I want to actually get
Speaker 1: them on the podcast to talk about what he heard
Speaker 1: and what I want to do a whole AI episode.
Speaker 1: I think that that would be interesting. If you're interested
Speaker 1: in the AI episode, let me know in my email,
Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of data that that people really would be questioning
Speaker 1: because you hear a lot of back and forth whether
Speaker 1: it's the end of the world or it's really overhyped.
Speaker 1: And then there was also c PAC Hungary over in Buddapest.
Speaker 1: Have a lot of friends that went there. My buddy
Speaker 1: Jack Pisobek had a great speech on patriotism. It was
Speaker 1: on his Twitter account. I really really enjoyed that. I
Speaker 1: don't go to Seapack anymore. Though I won't go there anymore,
Speaker 1: I don't I have a problem with the leadership currently
Speaker 1: under match Lap. I don't think that he's the right
Speaker 1: person run the organization, and he seems that it's not
Speaker 1: always using it for the best purposes. And there are
Speaker 1: so many stories now at this point, and so many
Speaker 1: accusations of him allegedly forcing himself on men that I
Speaker 1: don't feel comfortable supporting that kind of organization so long
Speaker 1: as he's there. And there was a story there was
Speaker 1: an allegation as recently as February that I think Conservation
Speaker 1: know about before they back an institution supported by him.
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of things that go on. There's
Speaker 1: been a lot of stories of people who work there
Speaker 1: that I've heard about him not being allowed in the
Speaker 1: same room as certain staffers, and I think that it's
Speaker 1: it's it's a problem.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't I won't participate in any Seapack things that
Speaker 1: will go in the future. I used to go all
Speaker 1: the time, though I used to love seap was great fun,
Speaker 1: I saw a Congressman Warren Davidson posting a picture he
Speaker 1: took with match Lap and Congressman Abe Hamaday, and I
Speaker 1: really wanted to tweet and be like, what happened? You
Speaker 1: walk into a closet and hang up your code and
Speaker 1: you found the two of them in there, allegedly allegedly Anyway,
Speaker 1: that was what happened this week. But going to June,
Speaker 1: two big things are happening. Two big elections are happening.
Speaker 1: They are the primaries for the New Jersey governor's race
Speaker 1: and the New York City Mayor's election. Now, I spent
Speaker 1: a whole episode in Jersey, and I'm going to have another
Speaker 1: episode in Jersey'm gonna circle back to it, but I
Speaker 1: want to focus on my hometown of New York City.
Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of people who might think,
Speaker 1: you know, it's too hyper local, but it is the
Speaker 1: largest city in America, and the mayor of New York
Speaker 1: City plays a big part in our national conversation. When
Speaker 1: Giuliani was mayor and worked to Clinton New York, it
Speaker 1: affected the entire country and how a tackle crime. And
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton took credit for all that. But then there
Speaker 1: was also who we were as Americans. After Night eleven
Speaker 1: in New York there was Bloomberg, for all of his faults,
Speaker 1: was a representation of really good bipartisan governance, and he
Speaker 1: continued a lot of Giuliani's ideas on especially on crime.
Speaker 1: And then we got Bill de Blasio and the Progressive
Speaker 1: Caucus and it was the end of good governance for
Speaker 1: a lot of people.
Speaker 2: That's just how I.
Speaker 1: Think New York has been reflective of this nation as
Speaker 1: a whole where we are politically. And after four years
Speaker 1: of Eric Adams time in leadership, because he's left the
Speaker 1: party to run as an independent, after all of the
Speaker 1: thing's been going on with him, we have an opening
Speaker 1: in the Democratic primary. Now there'll be two high profile
Speaker 1: independents on the ticket this number, there'll be current Mayor
Speaker 1: Eric Adams running as an independent and former Assistant US
Speaker 1: Attorney Jim Walden, who is formerly a registered Democrat as well.
Speaker 1: New York City being so heavily Democrat means that it's
Speaker 1: likely a Democrat will win the mayoral election after this primary.
Speaker 1: There are eleven people running in a ranked choice voting system.
Speaker 1: This is where voters get a chance to vote for
Speaker 1: who they want first, second, third, fourth, you know, et cetera.
Speaker 1: Some numbers go up, some numbers go down. It's such
Speaker 1: a stupid system that we've adopted, but that's what we have.
Speaker 1: The one of the leading contenders for the nomination, of course,
Speaker 1: is former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who had to
Speaker 1: resign in disgrace in twenty twenty one after a decade
Speaker 1: in office.
Speaker 2: Well he'll be back, you know.
Speaker 1: He's back again, back from the political dead, and he
Speaker 1: has a tremendous lead. Early on this election, he had
Speaker 1: a giant lead, and it's been getting slimmer and slimmer
Speaker 1: and slummer. His primary challenger is a little known assemblyman
Speaker 1: known as Zoran Mendani. He's an Indian immigrant from Uganda
Speaker 1: who is running as an open socialist. He's campaigning on
Speaker 1: freezing rend costs, increasing the minimum wage to thirty dollars
Speaker 1: an hour, free daycare for children, and of course raising
Speaker 1: taxes on the wealthy. Got as sneak that in everywhere.
Speaker 1: And he also wants to take over all the grocery
Speaker 1: stores in New York City and have them govern run
Speaker 1: because it worked out really great in Venezuela assemblymentmen. That
Speaker 1: was a joke by the way, but assemblement. Mandani has
Speaker 1: been polling in a distant second, but has been inching up,
Speaker 1: and in the last Emerson poll, in the last round
Speaker 1: of the rank choice voting, Cuomo has only an eight
Speaker 1: point lead in the last round. That's not I mean,
Speaker 1: it was significantly double digits. So eight points is nice,
Speaker 1: but it's not where it was where it should be.
Speaker 1: Cuomo has the backing of a lot of Latino and
Speaker 1: black voters in the city, while white voters are split
Speaker 1: sixty forty in favor of the Democratic Socialists. This is,
Speaker 1: of course according to the Emerson Pole. Remember a lot
Speaker 1: of white voters in New York outside of Manhattan and
Speaker 1: the areas on the edging on the deep part of
Speaker 1: like the Borough out of boroughs Queens, Brooklyn, Staten Island,
Speaker 1: in the Bronx, they are Republicans. So the ones who
Speaker 1: are left over are very progressive, especially in Manhattan. Manhattan
Speaker 1: acts almost as a sponge progressives all around the country
Speaker 1: who come to move there. Mandani also has a lot
Speaker 1: of support among young voters under the age of fifty,
Speaker 1: while Cuomo is dominating against older voters and the institutional
Speaker 1: organizations for Democrats like unions now that doesn't mean that
Speaker 1: Republicans have nothing to gain in this election. They could
Speaker 1: shock everyone to have an upset victory. New York State
Speaker 1: has something called a Wilson Bakula. It allows smaller third
Speaker 1: parties to co endorse candidates from major parties, So the
Speaker 1: Republican candidate oftentimes will also be endorsed by the Conservative
Speaker 1: Party and the Democratic canty will have the backing of
Speaker 1: the Working Families Party, but not always. New York City
Speaker 1: also has a law that allows politicians to make up
Speaker 1: their own parties if they get enough signatures. So Michael
Speaker 1: Bloomberg used to run under the Jobs and Education Party.
Speaker 1: It was a completely made up party that he ran
Speaker 1: under and got a lot of votes under. It's for
Speaker 1: people who are uncomfortable voting for Mitslayer or Republican, but
Speaker 1: they want to back the Republican candidate.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: This year, Andrew Cuomo has created his own parties called
Speaker 1: the Fight and Deliver Party, and it will be on
Speaker 1: the ballot in November. Likewise, Progressive the Progressive Working Family
Speaker 1: Party announced that it will not be endorsing Cuomo and
Speaker 1: could put up Mendanni as a nominee in the general
Speaker 1: election or another progressive candidate. All told, this means there
Speaker 1: could be four Democrat leaning candidates Adams, Wald, Mandannie and
Speaker 1: Cuomo all running in the general election against a single
Speaker 1: Republican Curtis Lee, while the founder of the crime prevention
Speaker 1: nonprofit of the Guardian Angels also up is all fifty
Speaker 1: one New York City Council seats is up for grab.
Speaker 1: Pilkins will be defending six seats Democrats have forty five.
Speaker 1: Most people don't realize, but New York City has moved
Speaker 1: substantially to the right under Trump. In twenty sixteen, Trump
Speaker 1: won twenty two point six percent of the vote in
Speaker 1: New York City compared to Hillary Clinton's seventy eight point
Speaker 1: four percent, losing the city by a total of about
Speaker 1: fifty six percent. He only won four New York City
Speaker 1: Council seats, including the ultra orthodox Jewish sheet in Brooklyn,
Speaker 1: which votes for Democrats locally. By twenty twenty four, however,
Speaker 1: his number grow to thirty percent of the vote in
Speaker 1: New York City to Harris Is sixty eight percent, reducing
Speaker 1: the Democrat margin from fifty six to thirty eight over
Speaker 1: twelve years, and the number of council seats he won
Speaker 1: went from four to eight. They doubled it. That's a
Speaker 1: lot of gain in a deep blue city with no institutional,
Speaker 1: real Republican party with a lot of money. Republicans are
Speaker 1: hoping to cut into democrats supermajority in the City Council
Speaker 1: and create a real presence, shaving away at the Progressive caucus.
Speaker 1: And they are also hoping that a divided Democratic field
Speaker 1: with four Democratic leaning candidates and only one Republican can
Speaker 1: create a dramatic result where somehow Curtis Lee will wins.
Speaker 1: This week, we have two guests on the show, one Democrat,
Speaker 1: one Republican to talk about what's at stake, what are
Speaker 1: likely outcomes, and what this month's primary holds.
Speaker 2: Stay tuned.
Speaker 1: Our first guest in today's episode is Hank Shankoff. He
Speaker 1: is a veteran Democratic consultant. He's worked on over seven
Speaker 1: hundred campaigns, including President Bill Clinton and Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Hank,
Speaker 1: thank you for being on this podcast.
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me on today. I'm very grateful
Speaker 3: that you called me and asked me to be here.
Speaker 1: So, Hank, you are an expert in a lot of
Speaker 1: things with democratic primaries, especially in New York City, former
Speaker 1: governor Andrew Cuomo has had a very big lead, and
Speaker 1: there's been this one poll, especially by Emerson, showing something
Speaker 1: be MENMANI I'm really climbing in the polls. Is there
Speaker 1: any realistic chance that there could be an upset where
Speaker 1: Cuomo loses?
Speaker 3: Six months ago, a well known idiot predicted that Mandammie
Speaker 3: would be the one to watch. I was the idiot,
Speaker 3: and people said to me, aren't you an idiot? And
Speaker 3: I've been saying it ever since. He's the one to
Speaker 3: watch for a whole host of reasons. If you look
Speaker 3: at the cross tabs of these polls, what you see
Speaker 3: is that Mandamie is doing very well with younger, better educated,
Speaker 3: more professional, and more rich people young people in those quadrants.
Speaker 3: Cuomo is doing better with poorer people, who are more
Speaker 3: minority people, people are less educated. The ballot is complicated
Speaker 3: because of ranked choice voting, regardless of what the people
Speaker 3: came up with ranked choice voting might say. And you know, again,
Speaker 3: better educated people will be able to manipulate it more significantly.
Speaker 3: What I find fascinating is that this generation of people
Speaker 3: who have eaten more regularly had more housing over their
Speaker 3: head than anyone else in history, have more opportunity than
Speaker 3: anybody else's had in history, and they're better educated than
Speaker 3: anybody else in history. Have decided that they should be
Speaker 3: aligning themselves with someone who has been very public about
Speaker 3: his attitudes about the Middle East, particularly Jews and housing
Speaker 3: and bus fare and who's going to pay? Now? If
Speaker 3: I were a munisipal worker and someone said to me,
Speaker 3: you vote for Bondami, I would say, what are you
Speaker 3: out of your minds? Because after you just finishes in
Speaker 3: taxing everybody and chasing them out of the city, there'll
Speaker 3: be no one here to pay the what do you
Speaker 3: call it, the municipal union agreements?
Speaker 1: Now, I just I think, and maybe I'm wrong. I
Speaker 1: keep looking for what coalitions Cuomo could have, right. I
Speaker 1: think that there are a lot of Italians who want
Speaker 1: to remember his father, who want an Italian mayor.
Speaker 2: I'm Italian.
Speaker 1: I can say like there's a lot of ethnic pride
Speaker 1: and in the tribe union members big time supporter as
Speaker 1: long as furs, Blacks, Latinos, and I think what has
Speaker 1: been under reported a lot of this polling is especially
Speaker 1: Orthodox Jews, who don't answer polls at a high frequency.
Speaker 1: They tend not to Is there anyone on missing that coalition,
Speaker 1: maybe senior citizens.
Speaker 2: Who else.
Speaker 3: Let's look at the city's dynamics per second. It is demographics.
Speaker 3: The wonderful thing about America is that it accepts everyone generally,
Speaker 3: and it changes and it goes through extraordinary moments, which
Speaker 3: is unique to American democracy. You know, we're not tribalistic
Speaker 3: so much as we become tribalistic, but we're really unified.
Speaker 3: And what's changing now is we're not as unified, becoming
Speaker 3: more tribalistic. What does that mean because we don't share
Speaker 3: common heritage. More than fifty percent of people living in
Speaker 3: this country today can no longer trace their roots to Europe,
Speaker 3: which is a pretty significant thing. New York is the
Speaker 3: melting pot of the world. Guess what, we're experiencing the
Speaker 3: same thing. So we have to begin to think about
Speaker 3: who really cares about what and how do we communicate
Speaker 3: with them? And the usual gang of consultants haven't figured
Speaker 3: that out yet because it's not interesting to them. It
Speaker 3: is very interesting to me. Were I running the Cuomo campaign,
Speaker 3: the people I'd be talking to are frankly Koreans Chinese
Speaker 3: who are much more conservative, who are becoming a quickly
Speaker 3: the most significant portion of the Asian community in New
Speaker 3: York City, and I guess they're about eighteen to twenty
Speaker 3: percent now they're going to increase. If you look at
Speaker 3: Brooklyn alone, where you have tremendous numbers, I mean you
Speaker 3: go to Bensonhurst, We're twenty years ago Italians and Jews
Speaker 3: ruled the roost. Today it is all the signs of
Speaker 3: the stores are in Chinese. It's very simple. I would
Speaker 3: be talking to Chinese, I'll be talking to Koreans, I'll
Speaker 3: be talking to South Asians, the Richmond Hill people, people
Speaker 3: who own property, who have vested interest insuring that those
Speaker 3: properties do what they were supposed to do, which is
Speaker 3: provide the income to put the children of those immigrants
Speaker 3: through college, which Mondambi intends to make them possible. Why
Speaker 3: smaller units throw away the taxes. Who's going to put
Speaker 3: the money into those properties? Simple?
Speaker 1: I think wants to control grocery stores, which for Latinos
Speaker 1: who own a lot of bodegas, they kind of classify
Speaker 1: as grocery stores in some capacity. I don't know how
Speaker 1: we would classify that, but that would hurt their businesses
Speaker 1: too immensely.
Speaker 3: It would injure them significantly. I mean, I've done a
Speaker 3: lot of work in Latino communities around them. I don't
Speaker 3: like the word, but Spanish speaking derivative countries I call
Speaker 3: them around the country, and I've worked overseas in Spanish
Speaker 3: speaking countries. It's not a good idea for them. So
Speaker 3: you know, I would be looking at this differently. I
Speaker 3: would also be targeting Irish and Italian Catholics forty plus,
Speaker 3: who are forty plus. I'd be looking at yeah, Koreans, Chinese,
Speaker 3: South Asians forty plus, Italian, Italian and Irish Catholics. I'd
Speaker 3: be looking at Jews very differently. I'd x out Manhattan
Speaker 3: over the top. I wouldn't bother with Manhattan, but I'd
Speaker 3: be looking at the outer boroughs. I'd be looking Jews,
Speaker 3: particularly in Queens Okay, Keew Gardens Hills, that's central that
Speaker 3: general area, whatever's left the Forest Hills. I'd be targeting
Speaker 3: Jews there, the people from Central Asia who have really
Speaker 3: taken over that the Forest Hills, Real Park area, and
Speaker 3: the Russians are now gone. I think in most cases
Speaker 3: from that to those communities, and I'd be looking at
Speaker 3: Brooklyn differently. I'd be looking at let's see Marine Park,
Speaker 3: the area around what they call Madison Park, which is
Speaker 3: Madison High School, and the whole general areas Flatbush, Midwood.
Speaker 3: People think about Jews in New York City, they think
Speaker 3: about votes my hostadium or orthodized people like that. I
Speaker 3: don't think the numbers are really there. If you look
Speaker 3: at real voter turnout in Borough Park and or Williamsburg,
Speaker 3: you just don't have what you used to have. Those
Speaker 3: negments have.
Speaker 1: Changed what I think you're describing and what is so
Speaker 1: commonly happening now in.
Speaker 2: New York City.
Speaker 1: And I am not only a lifelong New York City resident,
Speaker 1: I am in like sixth generation New Yorker. It's Manhattan
Speaker 1: and the regions that touch Manhattan, Northern Staten Island, Northern Brooklyn, Astoria,
Speaker 1: Long Island City, Queens, Southern Bronx that versus the rest
Speaker 1: of the city.
Speaker 3: I think that's entirely accurate. If you look at Long
Speaker 3: Island City and you look at where ground zero is
Speaker 3: for DSA candidates, it's Queens. You know, that's where the
Speaker 3: action is and who is that? Those are people who
Speaker 3: have gentrified or newcomers to those communities and high rises
Speaker 3: that have been built. And again who have had the
Speaker 3: they are the luckiest generation in the history of the world.
Speaker 3: They've eaten more frequently. How's better, They've got better educational opportunities.
Speaker 3: And their response to all this is to say, drop dead.
Speaker 3: We all we demand more, and we like this night
Speaker 3: because he's gonna make us feel better about demanding more
Speaker 3: and screw everybody else. So that's what that's about.
Speaker 2: It amazing one hundred percent. Sure, it's scary.
Speaker 1: And I grew up in a time where Long Island
Speaker 1: City was a shanty Irish neighborhood and no one want
Speaker 1: to be there at night, and now you can't afford
Speaker 1: to live there for a lot of people.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: And I think that what people miss about New York
Speaker 1: State and New York City is New York State is
Speaker 1: traditionally it's not a progressive state. It's an establishment Democrat state.
Speaker 3: Well partially, but hold on, hold on this someven you're
Speaker 3: missing and it's not for sure New York State. We
Speaker 3: used when I used to look at state wide campaigns,
Speaker 3: have been in successful state wide campaigns my whole career.
Speaker 3: You're looking to say, okay, what are the percentages of
Speaker 3: who the largest turnout number was Catholic, That started to shift.
Speaker 3: Why because of the decline of religion as an organizing tool.
Speaker 3: That is changing now with the new immigrants for Latin
Speaker 3: from Spanish speaking countries who are filling up parishes that
Speaker 3: were about to fall apart of clothes, who are also
Speaker 3: hard working. Many of them are you know, take the
Speaker 3: Laborer's Union people. They're Ecuadorians. They go to church, they
Speaker 3: have their they have their own ways of praying which
Speaker 3: are consistent with Catholic theology. But their participants and they
Speaker 3: have a vested interest in the system. Those are the
Speaker 3: people that the Cuomos and the others who are against
Speaker 3: Mondomie need to start reaching so that the think about
Speaker 3: this differently. Were in otherwords, we're not thinking about politics
Speaker 3: the way we should. We're thinking about the politics the
Speaker 3: way we think we should think about politics. And so
Speaker 3: long as we do that, Madamie has a much better
Speaker 3: shot well.
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 1: Also the thing is that someone asked me how was
Speaker 1: he gaining traction? What I said is New York City
Speaker 1: has become a sponge for the most far left people
Speaker 1: living in other places. If you're a far left progressive
Speaker 1: in Kentucky, you're not going to stay in Kentucky. You're
Speaker 1: going to move to New York City and the working
Speaker 1: class person, you're regardless of their race, but from any
Speaker 1: of them. White working class have left the city and
Speaker 1: they have moved into a lot of black working class
Speaker 1: I love to see too. They have moved into those neighborhoods.
Speaker 1: You go to certain parts of Brooklyn that were one
Speaker 1: hundred percent black when I was growing up. It's maybe
Speaker 1: a third white now. But they're not white, you know,
Speaker 1: Irish working class. They are far left progressive activists who
Speaker 1: have moved into those neighborhoods and have changed them.
Speaker 3: Absolutely accurate. Who's leaving New York. The young people you're
Speaker 3: talking about are not leaving New York. The people who
Speaker 3: are older, who don't want to be here anymore and
Speaker 3: who can't afford to live here or leaving New York.
Speaker 3: Those are the people leaving. The trucks, the moving vans
Speaker 3: are on the streets. They are leaving. Look if you're
Speaker 3: a police officer, white, Black or Latino, and let's see
Speaker 3: your husband, you're a police officer retiring and you're a
Speaker 3: second grade detective. Your husband, who's a police department was
Speaker 3: in a police department and was a patrol officer. You know,
Speaker 3: police life not to promoted, and you're getting two pensions,
Speaker 3: and your healthcare is taken care of into your sixty
Speaker 3: six right, and you're going to wait for Social Security
Speaker 3: and you're going to go to get another job. If
Speaker 3: you sell your house that you bought for fifty thousand,
Speaker 3: for three hundred thousand or wherever it is more, take
Speaker 3: three hundred, five hundred and six hundred, you're going to
Speaker 3: take the cash. You take your pension, you're going to
Speaker 3: take your health insurance, You're going to leave. You move
Speaker 3: to Florida. If you're black, you're going to move to Florida.
Speaker 3: If you're white, you're going to move to Florida. If
Speaker 3: you're a Latin, you're going to move to Florida. You're leaving.
Speaker 3: Let's be real, who wants to stay here unless you
Speaker 3: love the place, you believe that it's saveable and that
Speaker 3: it is worth being here. Now, that's it.
Speaker 1: One thing we saw in the last election last president
Speaker 1: struction was a tremendous growth for the support of Donald
Speaker 1: Trump in New York City.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: He went from twenty one percent twenty sixteen to thirty
Speaker 1: percent in twenty twenty four. That's a lot for a
Speaker 1: Republican candidate primarily of both white working class voters the
Speaker 1: ones who were left, and among ethnic minority specifically Asians
Speaker 1: and Hispanic specifically in Queens, the Bronx and Brooklyn. What
Speaker 1: in those communities, in the largest city in America, in
Speaker 1: a city that has really no functioning Republican party as
Speaker 1: it is known in other parts of the country, they
Speaker 1: are organically moving towards Trump. Why is it that Democrats
Speaker 1: are losing them without Republicans spending a lot of time, money,
Speaker 1: and intention trying to get.
Speaker 3: Important questions you're raising. If you look at South Brooklyn
Speaker 3: for a second, you look at where the numbers are,
Speaker 3: Trump did extraordinarily, Well, what is this about? We have
Speaker 3: no functioning Republican Party in New York City, which is tragic.
Speaker 3: I've always believed in two party systems, and I think
Speaker 3: that it is for more. I have tremendous, always had
Speaker 3: tremendous regard for the late Mike Long and certainly for
Speaker 3: Jeriekasar's success in the Conservative Party. Whether I agree with
Speaker 3: them or not, it doesn't matter the fact that they
Speaker 3: have principle, they stand for something and prepared to work
Speaker 3: for it is a pretty significant thing. So we don't
Speaker 3: have Republican party because people decided we shouldn't have a
Speaker 3: Republican party. And Trump, the Trump trumpiness has made that
Speaker 3: more difficult in New York, where Trump's numbers are astronomically
Speaker 3: bad now. But people are tired of a system that
Speaker 3: they believe not to be representative of them, that is
Speaker 3: not represented a blue collar people anymore, no matter what
Speaker 3: their race is. And if you look at the numbers
Speaker 3: that Trump had going back to twenty sixteen in the
Speaker 3: South Bronx, you have to be fairly shocked by it. Right.
Speaker 3: It is a resentment built upon reality, and the reality
Speaker 3: is that they're not being serviced by that party. They
Speaker 3: don't feel part of it, and they believe the elites
Speaker 3: have taken it over. And whether Republicans are controlled by
Speaker 3: elites or not they are doesn't matter. The rhetoric works,
Speaker 3: and that's one of the reasons why republic By Democrats
Speaker 3: are in so much trouble in this country. You know,
Speaker 3: as a Clinton guy, right, I can tell you that
Speaker 3: we're back in time. The party has lost its place
Speaker 3: because they never it's not a party anymore. What it is.
Speaker 3: It's a collection of clans very different way. You can't
Speaker 3: have a political party when when there's no joining mechanism,
Speaker 3: where people are clannish because their interests are very particularistic,
Speaker 3: and where you have no enforcement tool. The president of
Speaker 3: the Republican Party is the enforcement tool. The enforcement tool
Speaker 3: among Democrats used to be labor unions, but they're not
Speaker 3: as strong as they once were, and the strongest of them,
Speaker 3: the teamsters, walked away from the Democrats, and you know,
Speaker 3: made sure that May does their best to help Donald
Speaker 3: Trump get elected, knowing that the basic part of their
Speaker 3: population and membership were Frankly Trump.
Speaker 1: Iyes Hank, going last question, if you were advising Governor
Speaker 1: Cuomo from my Governor Cuotomo, what is his message in
Speaker 1: the last three weeks to Democratic voters in New York City.
Speaker 3: I'll make you feel safe again, and I'll make you
Speaker 3: feel wanted.
Speaker 1: That's great, that's right, Hank. Where can people go to
Speaker 1: read more of your stuff and find out more about you.
Speaker 3: I've never been really good at self promotion. I just
Speaker 3: go out and do this. I have no idea. If
Speaker 3: you said, you know I'm a blue collar product of
Speaker 3: New York City, they got to do this work all
Speaker 3: over the world. I have no idea how it happened.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of stuff online. I just it amazes
Speaker 3: me every day, and I think I'm the luckiest, most
Speaker 3: fortunate me. And I would leave you with one thought,
Speaker 3: though I'm not a fool. And what I believe is
Speaker 3: that whatever I have been able to achieve in my
Speaker 3: life from a high school drop out, you know that
Speaker 3: free education, University City, University of New York. I would
Speaker 3: never go one to school without New York. I would
Speaker 3: never become Hangshikoff. And I urge everyone to remember not
Speaker 3: my example, but the example of millions who came before
Speaker 3: me and afterwards want the same opportunities. And they got
Speaker 3: to figure out which of the people running from mayor
Speaker 3: We'll make sure those dreams can come true.
Speaker 2: That's great.
Speaker 1: I'm a product in New York City too, although I
Speaker 1: went to Catholic school, but I New York nade me
Speaker 1: into a person. So I love that city endlessly and
Speaker 1: I completely relate to you.
Speaker 2: And I ended up going to politics.
Speaker 1: And I also I'm a college dropout, not high school,
Speaker 1: but college, so I went back.
Speaker 3: I got lucky again. Cuning made it possible for me
Speaker 3: when there was no tuition.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I went to wait.
Speaker 3: You know, I worked. I was a condoman at the Carnegie,
Speaker 3: in the stage and all those places, a union economyn
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I was a police officer. That's
Speaker 3: fairly well known. I mean I had an extraordinarily interesting
Speaker 3: life and through a satin of accidents, this occurred and
Speaker 3: I haven't looked back. But again, this generation of people
Speaker 3: have had it really good. Why they're in revolt is
Speaker 3: the question that Democrats need to answer, because if the
Speaker 3: two parties split, one going all the way to the
Speaker 3: right and one going all the way to the left,
Speaker 3: it tells you that there's something wrong in the country
Speaker 3: because there's no place where all of us can meet anymore.
Speaker 3: And that is really troubling to me.
Speaker 1: That's a great closer And Hank, New York makes the
Speaker 1: most interesting people in the world, and you're one of them.
Speaker 1: Thank you for being on this podcast.
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me on. I'm grateful.
Speaker 2: Hey, we'll be right back after this.
Speaker 1: My other guest for this episode is Councilman Joeanne Ariola.
Speaker 1: She is the minority leader of the Republican Party in
Speaker 1: the New York City Council. She represents the area around
Speaker 1: Howard Beach and Rockaway and Ozon Parks. She's a good
Speaker 1: friend of mine. Councilman, Areola, thank you for being here.
Speaker 4: Such a pleasure. Thank you so much.
Speaker 3: Ryan.
Speaker 2: This is your podcast debut. So it's very exciting, it
Speaker 2: really is.
Speaker 4: I'm very excited.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Most people don't know this, but New York City has
Speaker 1: been taking to the right. In the last couple elections.
Speaker 1: In twenty nineteen, there were only six elected Republicans in
Speaker 1: all of New York City and there are currently sixteen.
Speaker 1: That's something that seems that getting ten seats in over
Speaker 1: the course of the five years. Given what we have
Speaker 1: with the elections this year, what are Republicans really focusing on.
Speaker 5: We're focusing on the migrant crisis, working collaboratively with ICE
Speaker 5: to alleviate that crisis, Law and order crime, We're working
Speaker 5: with the state representatives that are Republicans to address criminal justice, reform,
Speaker 5: raise the age, and of course cash list fail because
Speaker 5: these are all the things that put us where we
Speaker 5: are today.
Speaker 1: Well, we have the elections for the City Council and
Speaker 1: the mayor. Is there any chance for Republicans to gain
Speaker 1: in the City Council.
Speaker 5: Yes, we definitely have areas where we can gain. I
Speaker 5: think in Queens we can take Bob Holden seat which
Speaker 5: will be vacated because he's term limited with Alicia Maconez.
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, that is in western Queens.
Speaker 1: That's one of the red spots you always see in
Speaker 1: a map of New York cities. It's traditionally ready he's
Speaker 1: a conservative Democrat now retiring. So yes, that's one of
Speaker 1: the areas.
Speaker 4: The other is in Brooklyn forty seven.
Speaker 5: We have Richard Barsimi and he's currently the chair of
Speaker 5: the Republican Party and I think that he's now in
Speaker 5: a hotly contested primary which I believe he will win,
Speaker 5: and I think he will take it across the finish
Speaker 5: line in November.
Speaker 1: Well, I think that what people don't, I think realize
Speaker 1: that everyone kind of has a characature of New York
Speaker 1: and New Yorkers, But Republicans have had tremendous interests gains
Speaker 1: rather with the Hispanic community, in the Asian community. And
Speaker 1: this has been with Governor Lee Zelden's campaign, This has
Speaker 1: been with Curtis Lee was first campaign. This is now
Speaker 1: with Trump's campaign. You've seen this continue increase. How does
Speaker 1: a party work to sit there and try to keep
Speaker 1: those voters. How do we sit there and work to
Speaker 1: have those conversations. You have a lot of South these
Speaker 1: Asians in your own district and the Hispanics in your
Speaker 1: district too. What are some things that Republicans in urban
Speaker 1: areas should be doing to build those kinds of connections.
Speaker 5: What we've been doing in Queen's County is doing a
Speaker 5: lot of outreach and we're doing a lot of offshoot
Speaker 5: clubs South Asian Republican Clubs, Asian Republican Clubs, the Hispanic
Speaker 5: Republican clubs, really inviting them into the main organization called
Speaker 5: the Queen's County GOP. And the reason why we've seen
Speaker 5: such a shift in these demographics is because they've just
Speaker 5: had enough of democratic rule where they were losing their
Speaker 5: specialized schools, their kids couldn't get to school safely, the
Speaker 5: crime on the subways and the buses that children couldn't
Speaker 5: take to go to school, or people couldn't go to work.
Speaker 5: When you talk about the Asian community and the Hispanic community,
Speaker 5: the Bangladeshi community, any community where you have one and
Speaker 5: two income families that have a home and just want
Speaker 5: to have their peace of Americana they're going to vote
Speaker 5: Republican right.
Speaker 1: And this is I think what we're seeing a lot
Speaker 1: in the Democratic primary for mayor, where you have a
Speaker 1: Samil Mendani who is running on a very far left platform,
Speaker 1: specifically something that he's really curated towards Manhattanites, people who
Speaker 1: live in places like a story of people who live
Speaker 1: in Williamsburg, high income, college educated people who would both
Speaker 1: be negatively affected by his by his platform, but the
Speaker 1: working class would be much more negatively affected by his platform.
Speaker 1: I had I had on my last guest was a
Speaker 1: Democratic consultant and Harry Schenkoff, and he sat there and
Speaker 1: said that working class people feel like they are abandoned
Speaker 1: by the elitism of the Democratic Party, and that's why
Speaker 1: you're seeing these voters move towards Republicans. Is that a
Speaker 1: conversation you've had with voters in your time as a
Speaker 1: councilman and now as minority leader.
Speaker 5: I think that the people I've spoken to, the middle
Speaker 5: class voters that I've spoken to, feel that the Democratic
Speaker 5: Party has abandoned them, that that's not the party of
Speaker 5: their father and grandfather and the reason why they registered
Speaker 5: in the Democratic Party to begin with, a person like Mondambie.
Speaker 5: What he wants to do is socialize an entire city
Speaker 5: and that will just grow. He gets money from all
Speaker 5: over the country's sorrows, money to help him complete the
Speaker 5: mission of taking away our American freedoms and our.
Speaker 4: Way of life. Just one of his initiatives, which is to.
Speaker 5: Own or have government own all of the mom and
Speaker 5: pop shops, is just install grocery stores. I mean, are
Speaker 5: we now turning into a communist country? A communist These
Speaker 5: people save their money, They came from other countries legally,
Speaker 5: they saved their money, they went into business. That is
Speaker 5: what they have. That's their piece of Americana. And you
Speaker 5: want to just take that from them. No, we're not
Speaker 5: ready for that. We're not ready for him. And I
Speaker 5: don't believe that that there are enough DSA members to
Speaker 5: take him over the finish line.
Speaker 4: I don't care.
Speaker 5: How he pretends to be everything to all people. Donald
Speaker 5: Trump woke up the voters and they are very aware
Speaker 5: of who's running and what they stand for.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, DSAY is Democrats socials of America. And I
Speaker 1: brought this up to Harry for a lot of and
Speaker 1: a lot of ethnic neighborhoods and a lot of Chinese neighbors.
Speaker 1: For example, you have Chinese curative food stores that are
Speaker 1: just specifically heavily for the foods that they like. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of bodegas that are owned by Latinos. I
Speaker 1: believe bodegas would.
Speaker 2: Fall under grocery stores.
Speaker 1: They sell enough produce I guess to be a grocery
Speaker 1: store that would have devastating effects for Latinos and Asians
Speaker 1: in our city. Not alone everybody else, but specifically small
Speaker 1: business owners who own those types of stores.
Speaker 5: Where about less government, not more government. We want people
Speaker 5: to come here year, open up businesses and succeed, just
Speaker 5: like my grandparents did when they came in from Italy.
Speaker 4: So this is what we want. We don't want to
Speaker 4: take away their rights.
Speaker 5: What's next We'll have ticket books to say, oh, we
Speaker 5: can buy bread today or we can buy eggs.
Speaker 4: The next day.
Speaker 5: This is just ridiculous. This is communism. It's it's not socialism.
Speaker 4: This is it. It's terrible, it's Marxism. I can go
Speaker 4: on and on.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, there's so, and I brought this to my listeners.
Speaker 1: There is now in the democratic and the general election
Speaker 1: for mayor, there is a situation where we're going to
Speaker 1: have former attorney Attorney General assistant turn in General Walden,
Speaker 1: You'll have Eric Adams running as both independents, and you
Speaker 1: will have a Democrat. And if Andrew Cuomo, who is
Speaker 1: still likely to win the primary if he is the
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee, the Working Family Party has said they will
Speaker 1: put up their own candidate. So there's a potential of
Speaker 1: having four Democratic candidates for different Democratic leaning candidates versus
Speaker 1: Curtis Leewaw in such an environment where the Democratic vote
Speaker 1: could be split four different ways. Is there any chance
Speaker 1: for Curtis to win the mayoral election, which everyone sees
Speaker 1: is a very big long shot.
Speaker 4: It isn't a long shot.
Speaker 5: It is very feasible why he got thirty three percent
Speaker 5: or so in in his race head to head against
Speaker 5: Eric Adams last time out. Now you named the institutional candidates,
Speaker 5: We've just had an onslaught of independent candidates that filed
Speaker 5: with the Board of Elections that we won't know how
Speaker 5: many of them have been certified or not, so we
Speaker 5: don't know how many are going into the general election.
Speaker 5: That lessens the percentage needed. And I think that when
Speaker 5: people look and see what the field of candidates are
Speaker 5: and what they've done. When you have a proven record
Speaker 5: that hasn't hasn't succeeded, like Andrew Pomo and like Eric Adams,
Speaker 5: or the threat of becoming a communist city with Zoram
Speaker 5: being our mayor, people are starting to look at at Curtis.
Speaker 5: Curtis has been out there for over thirty years. His
Speaker 5: message has not changed. He has not changed.
Speaker 4: He wants to set this city right.
Speaker 5: And the only way to really do it, whether you
Speaker 5: believe in him or not, is the only way to
Speaker 5: make change is to have change. And the only difference
Speaker 5: of everyone who's on that list that's different is Curtis Leewa.
Speaker 5: And if we want change, we're going to have to
Speaker 5: make that change at the voting booth right.
Speaker 1: And I mean I have I have seen Curtis Lee
Speaker 1: well I don't know how many times, and just not
Speaker 1: a Republican. It's just out and about he does. He does.
Speaker 1: He is doing the old fashioned campaigning. When you look
Speaker 1: at what so he ran for those listeners don't know
Speaker 1: he ran in twenty twenty one, he got I think
Speaker 1: twenty seven point five twenty eight percent. He did slightly
Speaker 1: better than Nicole Mally talkers whos now is a congressman,
Speaker 1: but she ran for mayor four years.
Speaker 2: Prior to that.
Speaker 1: They had very similar results. But it's very interesting Curtis
Speaker 1: did substantially bet are in the Bronx Queens in Brooklyn
Speaker 1: and worse in Manhattan and Queens especially which you represent from.
Speaker 1: There is a real chance in Queens like there has
Speaker 1: never been before my home home county, Donald Trump's home
Speaker 1: county where you have a where you're seeing political realignment
Speaker 1: happen in real time with the Asian community, with some
Speaker 1: Southeast Asians looking into the future, which no one has
Speaker 1: a crystal ball, but if these trends continue, is there
Speaker 1: a chance that we could see a Queen's county one
Speaker 1: day that has a Republican Congressman that has you know,
Speaker 1: Republican the state senators and say some ofment again, you know,
Speaker 1: is that a real possibility as we are progressing down
Speaker 1: this path?
Speaker 5: It is an absolute possibility because even if you take
Speaker 5: into consideration not just the Latinos and the Asians, if
Speaker 5: you look at the African American community who have taken
Speaker 5: flight from this city and moved to the Carolinas, Georgia
Speaker 5: and any of state that they feel safer and you know,
Speaker 5: I ran for Borough president in twenty twenty, as you know, Ryan,
Speaker 5: and you know that. And I came into the race
Speaker 5: late where we were out numbered eight to one in
Speaker 5: registration Democrats to Republican and I was unsuccessful. However, I
Speaker 5: was unsuccessful in a two to one. The ratio was
Speaker 5: reduced to two to one. And where do those votes
Speaker 5: come from? In the areas of the African American population,
Speaker 5: where they're saying, we don't want less police, we want
Speaker 5: more police. We don't want more guns on the street,
Speaker 5: we want less guns on the street. We don't want
Speaker 5: criminals on the street, we want them behind bars. They
Speaker 5: have the very same ideology that we do, but they
Speaker 5: never knew they had a chance. So now it's up
Speaker 5: to the Republicans to make sure that we do enough
Speaker 5: outreach to those demographics Asian, the African American, and the
Speaker 5: South Asian and the Latino community so that they know
Speaker 5: that we're here, they know.
Speaker 4: That we have candidates.
Speaker 5: People are leary to donate money to Republicans because they
Speaker 5: don't think that that money is well spent. It is
Speaker 5: well spent, and it would mean the difference between your
Speaker 5: life changing for the better or worse.
Speaker 1: Right and also be the difference of New York State.
Speaker 1: There is no longer a blue Queen's county. There is
Speaker 1: no longer a guarantee that the governorship or the Senate
Speaker 1: seats remain blue either. I mean, the change is going
Speaker 1: to come from New York City. It's not going to
Speaker 1: come from upstate. Long Island has changed radically. That an
Speaker 1: Island has changed radically, But New York City is really
Speaker 1: where it's happening. It's happening, it's the change. The voter
Speaker 1: shift is the reason that New York State moved eleven points.
Speaker 1: The biggest right wing shift of any state in the
Speaker 1: entire country is because of New York City. And I
Speaker 1: don't think that's appreciated enough.
Speaker 2: Becuns.
Speaker 1: One last question for you before you have to go,
Speaker 1: what is the goal of the New York City Council
Speaker 1: Republican Party? And you have a larger thing called the
Speaker 1: Common Sense caugnis, which includes conservative Democrats. Two, when it
Speaker 1: comes to working into legislation with a mayor, if you're
Speaker 1: a minority, I think people don't appreciate how an effect
Speaker 1: a minority can change the path that a city takes.
Speaker 2: Path and depardon.
Speaker 5: Right now, we're at eight in the Common Sense Caucus. Well,
Speaker 5: actually we're seven because we had Kalman Jaeger went to
Speaker 5: the Assembly. But we are considered a voting block now,
Speaker 5: and we do have leverage when we speak with the
Speaker 5: mayor's office, when we speak with the with the Speaker's office,
Speaker 5: and we put our legislation forward, and if it's common
Speaker 5: sense legislation, you'd be surprised how many members who are
Speaker 5: historically progressive but found out that from the DSA, the
Speaker 5: Democratic Socialists of America, that they were just not progressive enough.
Speaker 5: So they've gone further towards moderation. And so they're now
Speaker 5: signing onto our bills, they're signing onto our letters. They're
Speaker 5: seeing out perspective and in kind, we're doing the same
Speaker 5: with them. If it is a common sense letter or
Speaker 5: a common sense legislation, we ie on and support it.
Speaker 1: That's great, Well, counselmen, where can people go to find
Speaker 1: more of your information about what you do about the
Speaker 1: Republicans running for your I mean the Republicans the City
Speaker 1: Council and supporting Republicans running in New York City.
Speaker 5: So of course it's all online. Campaign Finance has a
Speaker 5: website for all of the candidates. In my particular case,
Speaker 5: I'm on all forms of social media and I.
Speaker 2: Have the address Counselman, So there are.
Speaker 5: So many, So it's counsel women, Joane Ariola, Joe and
Speaker 5: Ariola for New York Council, New York City Council. And
Speaker 5: then we have Twitter which is at Joe and Ariola
Speaker 5: thirty two and Instagram which is at Joe and Ariola
Speaker 5: thirty two. So you can get me that way, or
Speaker 5: you can just call the office at seven eight three
Speaker 5: eight one zero A three will help anybody.
Speaker 1: You know the National podcast, So I don't know if
Speaker 1: they're calling, but thank you so much, Thank you so much, pleasure.
Speaker 1: It was so great and let's see what happens later
Speaker 1: on this month.
Speaker 4: It's always great to see you.
Speaker 1: You're listening to It's a numbers game with Ryan Grodsky.
Speaker 2: We'll be right back.
Speaker 1: Okay, that was great and it was super interesting seeing
Speaker 1: both sides of the parties that they're in talk. We'll
Speaker 1: see what happens in New York in the month, but
Speaker 1: I'm super excited with this. Now for the Ask Me
Speaker 1: Anything segment, you could be part of the Ask Me
Speaker 1: Anything segment if you email Ryan at numbers gamepodcast dot com.
Speaker 1: That's ryanat numbers Plural gamepodcast dot com. I'll take questions
Speaker 1: on anything. I want to get back to Russell's questions
Speaker 1: from last week, because he asked me a really important question.
Speaker 1: I didn't have I think the best answer for it.
Speaker 1: So he asked, Democrats have a smug elitist problem and
Speaker 1: do Republicans' independence know how democrats think can see the world. Okay, First,
Speaker 1: on the smug problem, I was able to find the
Speaker 1: date on this. In twenty twenty four, you Go found
Speaker 1: that thirty one percent of Americans so that Democrats were
Speaker 1: out of touch in terms of their association with elitism.
Speaker 1: The perception was highest among Republicans. Fifty three percent of
Speaker 1: Republicans sat there and said that Democrats were smug and
Speaker 1: elite among An NBC poll from twenty twenty five the
Speaker 1: following year obviously said that thirty eight percent of adults
Speaker 1: find that neither major political party fights for them, and
Speaker 1: that Democrats especially were disconnected and more tied to elitism.
Speaker 1: This was especially felt among young voters and even among progressives. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: there is an elitism a problem on the Democratic Party,
Speaker 1: and the polls are showing it. Now for the question
Speaker 1: of do Republicans and independents know how Democrats feel, that's
Speaker 1: a great question because there is something called a perception gap,
Speaker 1: and you see this in a number of polls. In
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, Democrats have shifted to the left right,
Speaker 1: there was a significant shift. There were fifty one percent
Speaker 1: identify as liberal now and versus twenty five percent back
Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety four. So there has been a shift
Speaker 1: to the left. But is a misperception given how people
Speaker 1: feel about certain topics, certain issues, right, okay, So on
Speaker 1: the issues that Republicans usually the Democrats have a uniform
Speaker 1: belief like a ninety nine ninety five percent in open
Speaker 1: borders or universal healthcare or welfare, in reality it is
Speaker 1: much much smaller among those who identify as very liberal
Speaker 1: to support those.
Speaker 2: Kinds of things.
Speaker 1: It's closer to twenty percent. So there is a misconception.
Speaker 1: There is a misperception over individual issues. Now, they don't
Speaker 1: consist synthactly the pull on all these issues. It's more
Speaker 1: of an alignment of where they are as an ideology
Speaker 1: based on very far left, very far progressive, and where
Speaker 1: the party is. That's why you get these polls that
Speaker 1: say do you support Trump's mass deportation, and something like
Speaker 1: twenty percent or fifteen percent of Democrats will say yes.
Speaker 1: When you take the word Trump out of the equation,
Speaker 1: it bumps up to like thirty five percent. Because the
Speaker 1: party is not as uniform as people think it is,
Speaker 1: and that is that's also true of how Democrats think
Speaker 1: of Republican simoquests think Republicans are much more to the
Speaker 1: right than they actually are. That's a great question. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much for asking it. I really appreciate these
Speaker 1: kinds of questions, Russell and I hope to get your
Speaker 1: questions soon on Thursday's episode. If you like this podcast,
Speaker 1: please hit like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast,
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. If you're feeling generous, please
Speaker 1: give me a good review. I got a few more
Speaker 1: on Apple. I notice them. I check these things out.
Speaker 1: I really really appreciate all of you. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Thursday.