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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Diligence Podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parol.

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Speaker 2: You guys get following me across all socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt following another one in one night. This is

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a trend here. But back to

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Speaker 2: back nights, back to back one in ones, we get

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Speaker 2: the under right for the aces. We do not get

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Speaker 2: the under right for the storm. When Zho and two

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Speaker 2: on sparks games and back to back games took the

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Speaker 2: Sparks plus the points night before that lost took the

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Speaker 2: under lost. Kind of a bummer there with the storm

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Speaker 2: and the sparks. But we get ourselves the aces and

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Speaker 2: the fever to go under, so we lose. Are down

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Speaker 2: point one. So Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, just a little bit

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Speaker 2: of an under kind of trend here. We're down, little

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Speaker 2: bit little paper cut, paper cut, paper cut. As we

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Speaker 2: head towards Thursday, Welcome back football. So I've got four

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Speaker 2: plays for us here today on a Thursday night football.

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Speaker 2: I have one straight bet, I've got one teaser, and

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Speaker 2: I have two player props for us to jump in

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Speaker 2: with here that I like a lot.

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Speaker 1: That I'm going to bet.

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Speaker 2: Half a unit on here, so we'll have a little

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Speaker 2: over three unit in play likenk we normally do on

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Speaker 2: a Thursday. But before I tell you about the picks

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Speaker 2: and the plays, this podcast is being presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: com slash terms. Okay, let's get into this big divisional

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Speaker 2: game between the Dolphins and the Bills.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we saw a really really bad.

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Speaker 2: Week one for running the football, sorry for passing the football.

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Speaker 2: We saw really good Week one for running the football.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that trend is going to continue,

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Speaker 2: but we do know that tu attaga Aloa can really

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Speaker 2: fill the football. And he yes Tyreek Hill, who hopefully

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Speaker 2: won't get arrested or attained on his way to the

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Speaker 2: game here tonight at hard Rock Stadium. Dolphins one game

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Speaker 2: week won in their first game last week on Sunday

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Speaker 2: twenty to seventeen, didn't cover the three and a half

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Speaker 2: point number. This is now two and a half up

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Speaker 2: against Buffalo. Now, if you look back in Week one

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Speaker 2: last week last year, TUA lost twenty one to fourteen

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Speaker 2: at home to the Buffalo Bills. Didn't cover in that

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Speaker 2: game either. They were short home dogs here in our

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Speaker 2: home favorites rather oh in Buffalo favorite actually Buffalo is

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Speaker 2: two and a half.

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Speaker 1: There were home dogs.

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Speaker 2: Buffalo won by twenty one in that game, Tua was

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Speaker 2: seventeen of twenty one for one hundred and seventy three yards.

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Speaker 2: That will not get it done here tonight if that's

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Speaker 2: how they're going to play. This team needs their offense

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Speaker 2: to click, but the defense needs to be needs to

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Speaker 2: bring their.

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Speaker 1: Hard hat as well.

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Speaker 2: They played well against the Dolphs against the Jaguars in

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Speaker 2: the second half. In the first half, it wasn't great.

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Speaker 2: Threw for three hundred and thirty eight yards last week.

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Speaker 2: Twenty three of thirty seven had the eighty yard touchdown

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Speaker 2: toss to Tyreek Hill, but he was equally effective throwing

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Speaker 2: the football and spreading it around getting off to a

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Speaker 2: one to zero start here. Big Win didn't cover the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Same thing for Buffalo. Buffalo didn't cover the one by six,

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Speaker 2: They did not cover the six and a half. They

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Speaker 2: were very close to covering, but they didn't cover much

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Speaker 2: like Tua and the Dolphins close to covering, but they

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Speaker 2: didn't cover. Dolphins are at home, Okay, I tend to

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Speaker 2: on short weeks, teams that played at home the previous week.

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Speaker 2: On that Sunday, they didn't travel, having to stay at

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Speaker 2: home and take on the Buffalo Bills, who traveled down

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Speaker 2: to South Florida. It's going to feel like one hundred

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Speaker 2: and five degrees. All right. It's at night, so the

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Speaker 2: sun won't be the problem, but the humidity will be.

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Speaker 2: In playing football in Miami when you're not used to

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Speaker 2: it and you're playing from Buffalo, New York. I think

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Speaker 2: the Bills could have a tough time in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 2: short week, hot place Miami is used to it. This

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Speaker 2: is Dolphins home Dolphins two and a half. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: lay the two and a half here with the Dolphins. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I think the Dolphins win the game by three or

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Speaker 2: four points. I don't think it's gonna be. It could

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Speaker 2: very well be like last week, last second field goal

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Speaker 2: to win the game. It could come down to that.

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Speaker 2: So since it's two and a half, it's less than

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Speaker 2: a field goal, I feel good jumping in here now.

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Speaker 2: It may go up to three, but it may come

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Speaker 2: down too good season Bills money coming in here with

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen, the way Josh Allen has played. But I

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Speaker 2: just think Tua in this offense will do enough, not

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Speaker 2: a ton, but they'll do enough here to get the win.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the two and a half points with

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Speaker 2: the Miami Dolphins at home up against the Buffalo Bills,

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Speaker 2: and frankly under Mike McDonald m McDaniel, they've been pretty good.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Dolphins have been pretty good at home

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Speaker 2: up against divisional teams. And if you kind of go

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Speaker 2: back and look at what happened last year for Tua

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Speaker 2: in games at home against divisional opponents, he played pretty well.

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Speaker 2: He didn't play against well against the Bills, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: but when played at home against the Jets, they won

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Speaker 2: the game thirty to nothing to throw for two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty four yards. Up against the Patriots, he went

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Speaker 2: thirty for forty five for three hundred and twenty four

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Speaker 2: yards in a thirty one seventeen victory at home against

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Speaker 2: the uh There was the Bills and the Jets and

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Speaker 2: the Patriots. So those are three home games two and

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Speaker 2: one to have played well in both wins. I think

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Speaker 2: he'll play well here tonight. I think the Bills are

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Speaker 2: gonna have a tough time on a short week after

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Speaker 2: a hard fought game against the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: I'll lay the two and a half points.

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Speaker 2: I'll take the Miami Dolphins mist two and a half

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Speaker 2: for one point one units. However, Thursday night, short week.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we're gonna see a ton of offense.

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Speaker 2: We could, but I think the defense will be again ahead.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the passing games will be really there.

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Speaker 2: We could run the football, but I'm not loving the

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Speaker 2: love of the passing game. I'm gonna same game tease this.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Bills up to plus eight and

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Speaker 2: a half. I'm gonna go from forty nine up to

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Speaker 2: fifty five, and I'm taking the under. I just to under.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think we're gonna see fifty five points

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Speaker 2: here in a divisional game. And other than the yes,

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Speaker 2: the Patriot game wound up with a forty eight, thirty one, seventeen,

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Speaker 2: thirty to nothing, twenty one to fourteen at fifty five points.

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Speaker 2: Last year, the three divisional games at home for Miami

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Speaker 2: all went under fifty five points. I just think you

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Speaker 2: look at last week at home against Jacksonville. That game

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Speaker 2: goes way under. We're talking about fifty five points and

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Speaker 2: the Bills. I know Buffalo could score another capable of

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Speaker 2: scoring a lot of points thirty four to twenty eighth

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Speaker 2: the final, but that was at home and they had

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Speaker 2: to come from behind to win the game. They let

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals get after it and really move the football.

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Speaker 2: I think it's significant to look at the Bills and

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins to go it's divisional game. I just don't

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Speaker 2: think we're seeing a high scoring game a week number two. Now,

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Speaker 2: the injuries do effect here. I'm not going to lie

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Speaker 2: here that back in the Dolphins with the injuries that

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Speaker 2: are going to be in this game. Chane is out

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Speaker 2: for the Dolphins. We've got Elijah Campbell who's questionable for

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins. Maraheem Moster is out for the Dolphins. Other side,

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Speaker 2: you've got a couple of out. Tyron Johnson is out,

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Speaker 2: Javon Solomon is questionable for the Buffalo Bills against short week,

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Speaker 2: hot stadium. A Chan being out stinks, but I think

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Speaker 2: the I think the Dolphins we will be okay here

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Speaker 2: and going ahead and leaning on their depth at running

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Speaker 2: back because they do have weapons to roll through. You know,

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Speaker 2: out A Chain is most likely out. It's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a lot of Jeff Wilson here, who's been decent at times,

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Speaker 2: Jalen Wright, who's been decent at times. I think the

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Speaker 2: Dolphins will throw the ball a little bit more. But

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Speaker 2: I also think that they're gonna have a tough time

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Speaker 2: throwing the football. So I don't think we're gonna see

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Speaker 2: a ton of big yarded teer in this game. I

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Speaker 2: just think the Dolphins defense can do a lot.

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Speaker 1: If a Chan.

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Speaker 2: Can't go, that's gonna be huge. But he you know,

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Speaker 2: most as out we'll see what a chain looks like.

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Speaker 2: If he can play, that's huge, and they'll run the

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Speaker 2: football at hopefully he's getting.

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Speaker 1: Ready to go. Here with this, the number opened up

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Speaker 1: at one.

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Speaker 2: It's been bet to two and a half, so I

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Speaker 2: think that tells me that eight Chan's gonna play in

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Speaker 2: this game. Dolphins might as two and a half bills

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Speaker 2: plus eight and a half teased to eight and a

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Speaker 2: half fifty five. We're going with the under. Now, we

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Speaker 2: saw one hundred and eighty eight and a half yards

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Speaker 2: per team passed in Week one of the NFL. That's

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Speaker 2: the lowest passing yardage in this century for teams in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. I'm not saying the Dolphins can't explode and

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Speaker 2: go off for a ton of yards, but in a

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Speaker 2: divisional game, I'm not sure they're going to Tua threw

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Speaker 2: for three hundred and thirty eight yards in that game

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Speaker 2: come from behind game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jaguars secondary

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Speaker 2: is awful. The Bills have a decent defense. The Bills

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Speaker 2: should be able to at least contain Tua. I think

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Speaker 2: Tua in terms of a yardage situation, I think Tua

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Speaker 2: is gonna have a two hundred and twenty five type

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Speaker 2: of game. I don't think he'll have one hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy seven. But I think if Ahang can play, they'll

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Speaker 2: run the football. And I think Tua is gonna go

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Speaker 2: under his passing number, and I think it's because of

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Speaker 2: the fact that you have that big play Tyreek Hill

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Speaker 2: like he had. I think too his passing number is

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Speaker 2: gonna be too high. And I'll ride this trend of

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Speaker 2: really a lot of unders coming in with passing yardage

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Speaker 2: four quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he throws for a ton of yards.

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Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be an it's two hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty five and a half, I'm gonna go under

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Speaker 2: here or two sixty nine and a half. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: go under with this for two sixty eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: So I played two sixty eight and a half for

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Speaker 2: Tua under and then I think James Cook is gonna

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Speaker 2: have a nice night. James Cook caught three balls for

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Speaker 2: thirty two yards against Arizona. I think against an aggressive

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Speaker 2: Dolphins front, I think James Cook can catch swing passes

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Speaker 2: and can catch screens. And I think James Cook picks

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Speaker 2: up pretty easily over eighteen and a half yards receiving

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Speaker 2: three catches for him average ten point seven yards per

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Speaker 2: catch in the game against Arizona. I think he's a

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Speaker 2: similar type of game here for James Cook. I think

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Speaker 2: he's gonna have an opportunity to maybe break off a

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Speaker 2: couple of them. I'm gonna go over eighteen and a

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Speaker 2: half receiving yards for James Cook or the Buffalo Bills

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Speaker 2: here for zero point five to five units. That's to

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Speaker 2: win a half a unit. Okay, so nothing too crazy

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Speaker 2: on this game here for tonight, nothing too wild, but

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Speaker 2: four plays going on Thursday Night football again, We're coming in.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the Dolphins minus oh sorry, the Dolphins minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half for one point one units, teasing

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Speaker 2: the Bills up to eight and a half at taking

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Speaker 2: the under fifty five at mice one twenty James Cook

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Speaker 2: over eighteen and a half receiving yards for zero point

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Speaker 2: five to five units and under two hundred and sixty eight,

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Speaker 2: you might get two sixty nine. I bet under two

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Speaker 2: sixty eight and a half. I just saw our book

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Speaker 2: that's at two sixty nine, so you may make it

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Speaker 2: a better number than me. But two sixty eight and

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Speaker 2: a half at mis one ten at point five to five.

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Speaker 1: So we're coming in little over.

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Speaker 2: You know, three point four units in play here on

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Speaker 2: Thursday night football for us on this Thursday.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 2: Remember coming up, we'll have a live stream with more

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Speaker 2: player props thirty minutes prior to kickoff. Join me on

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Speaker 2: this very betting Pros YouTube channel. We'll get at you

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Speaker 2: for the last thirty minutes. We'll talk about the game.

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Speaker 2: We'll break down the game a chain in or out.

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Speaker 2: How does that affect things. I'll have two more player props,

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Speaker 2: maybe more, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how many player props I like.

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Speaker 2: I may have more than two to give you, but

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Speaker 2: I generally play quarter unit on player props. I've got

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Speaker 2: two half unit plays coming in, so I may come

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Speaker 2: in with another four player props for a quarter unit,

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Speaker 2: depending on what I like and what I see but

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Speaker 2: I'm giving you the teaser now, giving the number now

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Speaker 2: because I think the number can be moving around to

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Speaker 2: see if you get.

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Speaker 1: Three, that's great.

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Speaker 2: But to me, this is same game type of long

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Speaker 2: teaser situation for taking the Bills update in a half

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Speaker 2: and taking the total down if under fifty five, seventh

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Speaker 2: will come out you at four thirty Pacific seven thirty

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Speaker 2: Eastern time on the Betting Pros YouTube channel with myself

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Speaker 2: for thirty minutes taking you up to kickoff top of

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Speaker 2: the hour for Thursday Night football between the Bills and

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins. I will talk to you later on today

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Speaker 2: on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Mine's Matt Perrault following

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Speaker 2: acrost All Socials at Sports Talk Matt. The Dealed Yous

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Speaker 2: podcast every morning presented by DraftKings