1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game jewish prow read enough.

2
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 2: They're all for running a game.

3
00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet.

4
00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:19,079
Speaker 2: Slend sixteen just glorious text. Thecution, guys, all I'm looking

5
00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 2: for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

6
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind? Bog buddy, And

7
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

8
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:30,680
Speaker 1: Look at his movements.

9
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 2: The most dangerous mount on the planet.

10
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 1: Nobody picts them.

11
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:43,240
Speaker 2: Sh shut up, I'm trying the love. It's left to

12
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:48,800
Speaker 2: one of the wide eyed, drilled bibus. How old earth

13
00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 2: that happens?

14
00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,880
Speaker 3: Hello are you one? Welcome back to Wonderful, the Soccer

15
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,840
Speaker 3: betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba.

16
00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,680
Speaker 3: Joining me in just a minute. My co hosts, my friends,

17
00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:07,440
Speaker 3: my colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. A little special

18
00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,760
Speaker 3: note keep your ears to the grindstone for Anthony's sultry

19
00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 3: voice on a special edition of the Action Network podcast

20
00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,679
Speaker 3: for the Australian Open. This is a soccer podcast, but

21
00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,560
Speaker 3: we will talk maybe a smidge of tennis here and

22
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,319
Speaker 3: there as the Aussie Open gets going. But before I

23
00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,400
Speaker 3: bring in Bj and Anthony, just a reminder. Wonder Goal

24
00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:31,360
Speaker 3: is presented to you by betfree six five, the world's

25
00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,959
Speaker 3: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to

26
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,520
Speaker 3: get bet three six five's exclusive sign up offer in

27
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,199
Speaker 3: New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game,

28
00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:45,360
Speaker 3: get two hundred free. It is a wild week coming

29
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,920
Speaker 3: in the Premier League, an absolutely wild week. But before

30
00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,639
Speaker 3: we get to the crazy weekend where all eight teams

31
00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,840
Speaker 3: in the top eight are playing one another, and then

32
00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,400
Speaker 3: we have two relegation six pointers headlined by a showdown

33
00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:01,080
Speaker 3: at Goodison Park between Southampton and Everden. Thursday game too,

34
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,480
Speaker 3: just a random sprinkled in Thursday match between Fulham. They're

35
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 3: plus two thirty at home and Chelsea plus one ten

36
00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:13,280
Speaker 3: on the road to draw is plus to seventy. Antony,

37
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,840
Speaker 3: I start with you. We've talked a lot about Fulham's well.

38
00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:18,160
Speaker 3: First of all, it's nice to see you guys again.

39
00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:18,880
Speaker 3: It's been a while.

40
00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:20,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it has been a while, Mike, It has been

41
00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,880
Speaker 1: a while, guy, list This is a great weekend to

42
00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:24,799
Speaker 1: come back, Yeah, exactly. It was a got drilled in

43
00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,239
Speaker 1: the I'm happy for the Premier League to be back.

44
00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,160
Speaker 3: Oh it's back, and it's back with Fulham and Chelsea.

45
00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,120
Speaker 3: We've talked a lot about Fulham's defense nineteenth and non

46
00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,880
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals allowed twentieth, a big scoring chances allowed.

47
00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,000
Speaker 3: Anthony's is just a get right spot for Chelsea on

48
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,480
Speaker 3: the road because they're not very good either.

49
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,880
Speaker 2: I don't think so. You know, Chelsea has clearly been

50
00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,280
Speaker 2: downgraded a little bit in the market here. Now you

51
00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,800
Speaker 2: know this line was sitting minus one oh five. Look aheads,

52
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,600
Speaker 2: now it's up till you down to plus one ten.

53
00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:56,680
Speaker 2: I think a lot of that had to do with

54
00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,920
Speaker 2: the injuries. Rahim Sterling going out injured, Christian poolisit going

55
00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:05,520
Speaker 2: got injured in the city match in the league, and

56
00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,160
Speaker 2: then they looked completely lifeless in the cup match, didn't

57
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 2: register a shot. It was downright embarrassing. And I think

58
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:18,360
Speaker 2: Chelsea now signs Jole Felix, which in the medium to

59
00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,880
Speaker 2: long term I'm fine with. I think it's a good upgrade,

60
00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 2: Like he's a good player, he's fine, but he's not

61
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 2: going to play in this match, I'm assuming. And so

62
00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,600
Speaker 2: there's no real answer in attack for this team. I

63
00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,640
Speaker 2: mean it's Havertz and Obama Yang No Reece James still

64
00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,560
Speaker 2: like this Chelsea team doesn't look like they're making steps forward.

65
00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,360
Speaker 2: I know that the seat's getting a little bit hot

66
00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 2: for Graham Potter, maybe already somehow. But this is also

67
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 2: a bet against the Fulham attack, and I do won't

68
00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 2: repeat myself on their attack. But Alexander Mitchovich is suspended

69
00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,720
Speaker 2: for this match. He will not play. The guy behind

70
00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,440
Speaker 2: him is Tottenham legend Carlos Venisius, who had a short

71
00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,560
Speaker 2: lived stay at Tottenham. Did the mbappe celebration one time

72
00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,560
Speaker 2: that was really cool. But he's not a very good player.

73
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,240
Speaker 2: I mean, he's averaging one point three shots per ninety

74
00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,040
Speaker 2: in four nineties this year and just under a tenth

75
00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,560
Speaker 2: of an XG per ninety, so like he's really not

76
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,200
Speaker 2: been effective at all as striker, and I think it's

77
00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 2: a bad matchup for him. Of course, going up against Chelsea.

78
00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,800
Speaker 2: Fulham's defense continues to be really bad when you look

79
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,120
Speaker 2: at the numbers like XG, but some of the other

80
00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,760
Speaker 2: numbers like expected threat and box entries allowed and like

81
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:26,719
Speaker 2: touches in the penalty here aren't quite as bad. So

82
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 2: I continue to think that Fulham's defense won't stay this

83
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,200
Speaker 2: bad forever. I think there's a little bit of air

84
00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,479
Speaker 2: in those numbers and the Chelsea defense, I just don't

85
00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:36,839
Speaker 2: think it's going to have a ton of problems. You know,

86
00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 2: we talked about Fulham. They're so good at crossing because

87
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 2: they have an elite guy you can get his head

88
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,760
Speaker 2: on the ball and you know, headed in and they

89
00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,480
Speaker 2: lead the league and heading goals or second in the

90
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,400
Speaker 2: league and headed goals most goals from crosses. So that's

91
00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:52,320
Speaker 2: the one avenue. And now they don't have Mitrovich for

92
00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,480
Speaker 2: this match. So I like the under two and a half.

93
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,479
Speaker 2: I grabbed it. I liked anything plus money here. I

94
00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,280
Speaker 2: project this just under two and a half with Mitrovic.

95
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:01,839
Speaker 2: You take came out, you know, you throw a little

96
00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,360
Speaker 2: adjustment in there. I think this is a clear underspot

97
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,000
Speaker 2: and Chelsea's attack just doesn't look like it's going to

98
00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 2: get right. And in some ways it's Potter's fault, but

99
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:10,920
Speaker 2: in some ways it's just a bad run of luck.

100
00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:12,240
Speaker 2: I mean, everybody's hurt.

101
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:17,719
Speaker 3: Eja anything here quickly. I know it's not a game

102
00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,200
Speaker 3: that interests you much from a bending standpoint, But on

103
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,840
Speaker 3: Chelsea and Fulham, before we sink our teeth into this

104
00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,040
Speaker 3: wonderful sleep coming our way this weekend.

105
00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,839
Speaker 1: Right I was actually looking to play Fulham in this

106
00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: one before metrovisch got suspended, and which is crazy to

107
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 1: say given the regression that they're due for. But there

108
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,520
Speaker 1: are just a ton of problems with Chelsea right now

109
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,200
Speaker 1: that Anthony already outlined it with all those injuries. If

110
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:41,640
Speaker 1: you're just gonna be relying on a Bomby hang and

111
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,280
Speaker 1: have verts as being your only two guys really an attack,

112
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 1: that's a problem. And Chelsea midfield hasn't been able to

113
00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,480
Speaker 1: dominate like they have been in years past. Yeah, this

114
00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,360
Speaker 1: is gonna be a very very interesting match and I'm

115
00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,520
Speaker 1: more interested to see. You know, both of these teams

116
00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,440
Speaker 1: have really quick turnarounds once we get to Sunday. We'll

117
00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 1: obviously get to the Chelsea Crystal Palace and the Fulham

118
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,760
Speaker 1: Newcastle matches later on here, but this is one I'm

119
00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 1: very very interested to see how Chelsea plays because this

120
00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:09,720
Speaker 1: is a spot like they should win, right because their

121
00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,400
Speaker 1: favor They're going in Fulham, doesn't that Mitchivich. It's a

122
00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:17,279
Speaker 1: game they absolutely need all three points, so we'll see. Yeah,

123
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 1: the seed is obviously getting a little little hot for Potter.

124
00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,000
Speaker 1: It just seems like every single day Chelsea is just

125
00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,640
Speaker 1: purchasing somebody new. Uh, so we'll see, you know, Felix

126
00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,960
Speaker 1: is obviously it's interesting. The Felix signing is is a

127
00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,120
Speaker 1: little weird to me. I agree with you anything like

128
00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,200
Speaker 1: long term. Yeah, I do believe it'll work out and

129
00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,080
Speaker 1: given the right system that he has. But you know,

130
00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,480
Speaker 1: he did kind of struggle at Athletico. But he's somebody.

131
00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:41,359
Speaker 1: He can't just be an out and out number nine

132
00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,719
Speaker 1: like striker. He needs to play off of somebody. So

133
00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,600
Speaker 1: we'll see if it works in this type of system.

134
00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 1: I like he's gonna play in this match. We might

135
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,480
Speaker 1: se him against Crystal Palace. But yeah, I am passing

136
00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,320
Speaker 1: on this one. Don't hate to look at the under

137
00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:57,440
Speaker 1: given all of the attacking injuries for both teams. But again,

138
00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:59,840
Speaker 1: this full in defense is so bad, Like they've allowed

139
00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,440
Speaker 1: the host big scoring chances in the Premier League. So

140
00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,479
Speaker 1: that scares me taking an under with them.

141
00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:09,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, after Reps got Felix at zero point five to

142
00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:11,640
Speaker 2: nine x G plus x A per ninety this season.

143
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,840
Speaker 2: That's seven matches, it's like pretty good.

144
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:17,920
Speaker 1: Like he's got a ton of time. He's a good striker.

145
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,760
Speaker 1: It's just he needs to be in the right system

146
00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: to thrive.

147
00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,040
Speaker 3: He's got a good head of hair too. Yes, all right,

148
00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 3: let's now go to the weekend. Like I said, all

149
00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,080
Speaker 3: eight teams in the top eight are playing another team

150
00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:34,560
Speaker 3: in the top eight, which means we're also getting a

151
00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 3: lot of you know, relegation six pointers. And guess what

152
00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,120
Speaker 3: that's where we're gonna start. We're gonna start a Goodison

153
00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,880
Speaker 3: Park Everton plus one twenty hosting Southampton plus two forty

154
00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 3: the draw here plus two twenty five. These odds and

155
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 3: all the odds you're gonna hear on the show brought

156
00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 3: to you by our friends at Bet three sixty five.

157
00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,440
Speaker 3: I don't know if you guys noticed this, but Everton

158
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,440
Speaker 3: played alright against Manchester United in the FA Cup. They

159
00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,360
Speaker 3: played alright in two out of the last three matches.

160
00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,000
Speaker 3: And what's the common denominator in those two matches? They

161
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,119
Speaker 3: played with a back five. I don't care if it's Southampton, Frank,

162
00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,520
Speaker 3: just do it again, Just keep lashing in.

163
00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,720
Speaker 1: His job safe now, Michael, Yeah, there's his job safe.

164
00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:20,040
Speaker 3: The off, Yeah, clap back with the letter. I don't

165
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,080
Speaker 3: I mean ever did a plus one twenties is short, man,

166
00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 3: that's way too short. I think it's from a betting standpoint.

167
00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 3: I mean, it's Southampton or nothing. They're coming off a

168
00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,160
Speaker 3: to nothing win over City and the Carabell Cup. Maybe

169
00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:37,480
Speaker 3: we'll see some market love for the Saints. I mean,

170
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,680
Speaker 3: the market always moves away from Everdon before every match,

171
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,400
Speaker 3: it seems, so wouldn't be surprised. It's weird. It's weird

172
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,400
Speaker 3: that that happens. What do you think here, bj Southampton?

173
00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,760
Speaker 1: I think this is one of the easiest passes on

174
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,600
Speaker 1: the board. If I had to play anybody, I would

175
00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:54,280
Speaker 1: play Southampton who has played, you know, their first couple

176
00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,760
Speaker 1: of Premier League matches under Nathan Jones haven't really been

177
00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,959
Speaker 1: that good. The showing against Nottingham for US was out

178
00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,520
Speaker 1: actually very disappointed in. It was one of those matches

179
00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,959
Speaker 1: where they're at home, it's a good spot for them

180
00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,960
Speaker 1: and they really just couldn't couldn't get it done against

181
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:10,960
Speaker 1: a pretty bad Nodingham for his defense, But then they

182
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 1: went and beat Crystal Palace on the road in the

183
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:14,840
Speaker 1: FA Cup, and like he already mentioned, beats a lot

184
00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,760
Speaker 1: of you know, cities backups in the Caraboll Cup. But still,

185
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,680
Speaker 1: I mean it's still a fantastic effort and I think

186
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 1: that what it just comes down to for Southampton is

187
00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,960
Speaker 1: you know who's going to control possession of this match, Michael,

188
00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 1: Because as as I've outlined many times, Southampton Nathan Jones teams.

189
00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,199
Speaker 1: At one point in the match against Fulham, I know

190
00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,760
Speaker 1: it's a couple of matches ago. Fulham was holding around

191
00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 1: seventy to seventy five percent the session. They're They're a

192
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:46,280
Speaker 1: very very direct team. So yeah, So if I'm betting

193
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,640
Speaker 1: on Everton at plus one twenty having to break down

194
00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:53,360
Speaker 1: a low block and then defend in transition, that is very, very,

195
00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 1: very scary. So I am passing on this one. I

196
00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 1: think that. But if you had to play anything I'd play,

197
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,520
Speaker 1: it's probably Southampton nothing who is still there's still a

198
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,240
Speaker 1: top ten team by you know, expectacles allowed. So if

199
00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,800
Speaker 1: they're gonna play more compact under Nathan Jones, then it's

200
00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,160
Speaker 1: gonna be very difficult for Everton to actually create a

201
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:13,720
Speaker 1: number of high quality chances.

202
00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:18,319
Speaker 3: Here, Anthony, you've been Evertt and over has Everdon both

203
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,000
Speaker 3: teams to score? Yes? Is is that just gonna be

204
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:22,440
Speaker 3: something you do to the rest of the season, for

205
00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,800
Speaker 3: the rest of the season. And another one here against Saints.

206
00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,040
Speaker 2: I will until the market adjusts. I mean minus one

207
00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,280
Speaker 2: seven you can find out there on both teams to score.

208
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,600
Speaker 2: I will happily play that. This is a desperation spot.

209
00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,240
Speaker 2: I don't think a draw is good enough for either

210
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,640
Speaker 2: team in this situation. I think both kind of have

211
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,199
Speaker 2: to go for it. And typically, you know, relegation six

212
00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,720
Speaker 2: pointers can be a bit cagy. But like I said,

213
00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,040
Speaker 2: minus one oh seven on an attack in Southampton that

214
00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,920
Speaker 2: has underperformed both expectations. On set pieces, they haven't been

215
00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,600
Speaker 2: as good you'd expect Southampton to be one of the

216
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,120
Speaker 2: better set piece of taking you know teams, they've been

217
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,880
Speaker 2: really bad. I think there's likely to be some improvement

218
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,920
Speaker 2: there going forward. Everton's defense continues to be in terrible form.

219
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,520
Speaker 2: Southampton also crosses the ball a lot, so how to

220
00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:11,280
Speaker 2: get most of their balls in the box. A lot

221
00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,320
Speaker 2: of that was Ralph, but I still think that carries

222
00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,960
Speaker 2: over just generally speaking, with the way that they have

223
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,559
Speaker 2: kind of not necessarily target forwards, but forwards who aren't

224
00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:22,839
Speaker 2: really running behind types like a Chay Adams. They're like

225
00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,360
Speaker 2: get on the end of a cross type. And Everton

226
00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,720
Speaker 2: doesn't stop crosses. I mean their twentieth and stopping cross

227
00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 2: and the penalty area, and I think going to a

228
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,480
Speaker 2: back three doesn't really help you stop the crosses necessarily

229
00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,040
Speaker 2: either in this situation if the fullbacks are going to

230
00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,120
Speaker 2: get forward up the pitch, which I do expect for

231
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,920
Speaker 2: this match. So I like the both teams to score.

232
00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,240
Speaker 2: Southampton's a classic, like the field tilt on them is

233
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,599
Speaker 2: actually higher than Spurs, which is kind of crazy to

234
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:48,640
Speaker 2: think about. Like they do a decent job of keeping

235
00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:50,920
Speaker 2: teams out of their penalty area. They've been really bad

236
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,400
Speaker 2: in goal this year. It's definitely hurt them, but Everton

237
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,360
Speaker 2: have not taken any of their chances. They have been

238
00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,400
Speaker 2: better in attack going at home, though considerably they are

239
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,520
Speaker 2: over one extra ninety at home. So give me the

240
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,120
Speaker 2: both teams to score here. I would lean towards Southampton two.

241
00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,959
Speaker 2: Originally had that but missed the good number. The Toffees

242
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,199
Speaker 2: were minus or a plus one oh five. I would

243
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,040
Speaker 2: have probably laid like a minus one twenty one to

244
00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,959
Speaker 2: twenty five on the Saints plus a half but minus

245
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,640
Speaker 2: one forty Now, no interest there. I'm just going to

246
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,200
Speaker 2: tell the both teams to score and wait for the

247
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,480
Speaker 2: market to adjust. I mean that Brighton total sat at

248
00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,240
Speaker 2: two and a half over last week at like plus

249
00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:31,559
Speaker 2: one oh four. It was five goals was pretty deserved

250
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:32,480
Speaker 2: of like three or four.

251
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,920
Speaker 1: So right to Anthony, that's a really good point that

252
00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 1: you made about the field tilts, and it happened. It

253
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:39,800
Speaker 1: was very, very evident today in the Carabout Cup too,

254
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,920
Speaker 1: because City held over seventy percent possession against Southampton, but

255
00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:44,840
Speaker 1: the field tilt was only around fifty four percent. And

256
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,480
Speaker 1: that's something you know that I've already said about Nathan Jones,

257
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:49,760
Speaker 1: is that they like to press high, like they will

258
00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,440
Speaker 1: force you to essentially hold a lot of possession in

259
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,679
Speaker 1: your own final thirds. So yeah, that's something definitely look

260
00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,240
Speaker 1: out for, especially in this type of match where Everton

261
00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 1: might hold more than like fifty five percent possession, but

262
00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,160
Speaker 1: sellam To might tilt the field on them too.

263
00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:08,040
Speaker 3: All right. Two Derby's at the top were in that

264
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 3: top eight, including the North London Derby A podcast derbyst.

265
00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:16,520
Speaker 1: Best team in the world versus Arsenal.

266
00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,840
Speaker 3: That's right, BJ's Arsenal a plus one twenty road underdog.

267
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,240
Speaker 3: I see the road favorite against Spurs plus two ten.

268
00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 3: The draw here is plus two sixty. Tottenham is five

269
00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,400
Speaker 3: one and five one draw loss over there last eleven

270
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,040
Speaker 3: that's since October first. In that span a plus one

271
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 3: gold differential, plus one point six expected gold differential. So

272
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:40,160
Speaker 3: everything is pointing to what we were trying to tell

273
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,680
Speaker 3: Anthony all along. This is a mediocre team. They're just

274
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,120
Speaker 3: not that great. They're just not a top four squad

275
00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,600
Speaker 3: given their form, given what and I know Spurs is

276
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,679
Speaker 3: coming off a good performances last time out in the

277
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:56,960
Speaker 3: Premier League, but given given their their form and kind

278
00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,480
Speaker 3: of like just trying to stabilize, I actually think Tottenham's

279
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 3: going to come out extremely defensive, even at home here,

280
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,680
Speaker 3: and that kind of puts me onto the draw. I

281
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 3: think that this is going to be almost like a

282
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:17,000
Speaker 3: you know, a Man City versus like a lower tables team,

283
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,280
Speaker 3: like one team just sitting real deep, digging their whole

284
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 3: heels in and trying to counter. And I know that

285
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,640
Speaker 3: Spurs does that, but they're you know, that's selling short

286
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 3: what they were doing when they were at their best.

287
00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 3: So I like the draw here actually plus two sixty.

288
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 3: It's been a while since I bet a draw, and

289
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,240
Speaker 3: this match, I think it's going to be low event.

290
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 3: It's going to be one team defending for their lives

291
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,440
Speaker 3: and the other team trying to break down a team

292
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:44,560
Speaker 3: sitting real deep a lily white bus at parked at

293
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:49,960
Speaker 3: the NFL Stadium in London. Anthony Spurs Arsenal, what do

294
00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 3: you have.

295
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,360
Speaker 2: As of right now? I've actually not been anything so far.

296
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,080
Speaker 2: I'm pulling up the market number now on the total

297
00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,800
Speaker 2: because I am looking toward the under here. I think

298
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,160
Speaker 2: both attacks have run really well this season. I think

299
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,920
Speaker 2: both teams have have vastly overperformed at this point in

300
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 2: the season. I mean, you look at some of the

301
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,960
Speaker 2: Arsenal numbers. Gabrielle jay zus under performing as this tradition,

302
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 2: he won't play in this match, but the numbers they're

303
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 2: getting from Martinelli and Sokka suggest to me that there

304
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,080
Speaker 2: probably is some regression coming for Arsenal and that I

305
00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,800
Speaker 2: don't think they're going to continue to be an entire

306
00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 2: goal better than their opponents in the second half of

307
00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,440
Speaker 2: the season. They could, and we've seen Arsenal have really

308
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,640
Speaker 2: good stretches before under Arteta and follow that up with

309
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 2: some less good stretches. But the thing about this matchup,

310
00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,160
Speaker 2: and we saw this in the first match, I don't

311
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,760
Speaker 2: think much has changed really for either team. Overall tactically,

312
00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:44,440
Speaker 2: Arsenal have really improved in transition defense. Last season, Arsenal

313
00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 2: was roughly eleventh in opponent pass completion of percentage, So

314
00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 2: what percentage of your opponents completing against you? So how

315
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,680
Speaker 2: well are you disrupting their possession? They were eleventh. It's

316
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:55,160
Speaker 2: pretty bad.

317
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 3: You know.

318
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 2: We talked about how Arsenal wasn't like a good pressing team.

319
00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 2: This shit are up to fourth, So that's a huge

320
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,200
Speaker 2: step forward for a team that's done much better and

321
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,400
Speaker 2: transition defense, much better counter pressing. And that's really what

322
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,080
Speaker 2: happened in the first match. I mean they dominated the ball,

323
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 2: Spurs couldn't really get out of their own half. They

324
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,240
Speaker 2: had a couple dangerous counters, one of which was led

325
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,680
Speaker 2: to the penalty which led to the goal that Spurs

326
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 2: didn't really create much else in the match. No team

327
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 2: has allowed more high turnovers this is from the analyst

328
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,680
Speaker 2: in the prem than Spurs, and they've allowed the fifth

329
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 2: most shots off of those high turnovers force. So if

330
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,040
Speaker 2: Spurs aren't going to be the good counter attacking team

331
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,360
Speaker 2: that we saw of last season, and there's a real

332
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 2: risk that Arsenal kind of just keeps them penned in

333
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,240
Speaker 2: and that Spurs are in a rough spot here to

334
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 2: try to get anything from this. But I also think

335
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 2: that Spurs are underrated defensively. I think they've shown some cracks.

336
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,800
Speaker 2: Larice has been meh, but overall, I think the defense

337
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 2: has improved. You saw that in the Palace match with

338
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 2: how they defended really well in that match, conceded point

339
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,000
Speaker 2: six to x G. But even the attack against Pallace,

340
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,840
Speaker 2: you know, they end up scoring four. Kin kind of

341
00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 2: put the backpack on only a half expected like every

342
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 2: chance went in and it was more of a collapse

343
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 2: from Palace than like Spurs really improving all that much.

344
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 2: I thought I wasn't that impressed with the second half,

345
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,000
Speaker 2: so I lean toward the under here. I would love

346
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 2: it at three. I don't think we're gonna get three

347
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,679
Speaker 2: sitting there two seven five, two and a half plus money.

348
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,240
Speaker 2: I may end up getting there by kick, you know,

349
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,440
Speaker 2: follow me in the app but I think I'm gonna

350
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,439
Speaker 2: end up sitting out the derby again, which sucks, but

351
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 2: ours the Spurs are not giving me much hope to

352
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:29,879
Speaker 2: bet them as an underdog, which I had hoped to

353
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,960
Speaker 2: do coming into the season.

354
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,360
Speaker 3: More so it's it's an eleven dirty kickoff on Sunday,

355
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 3: which I'm really interested in where this number goes because

356
00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 3: here in the States, these are two really popular sides.

357
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,880
Speaker 3: This is gonna be one of the biggest ratings matches

358
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 3: we'll see an nbcpcock et cetera. So there will be

359
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 3: a lot of people getting their betting juice is going

360
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:03,360
Speaker 3: because the NFL starts at one pm the playoffs, so

361
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,639
Speaker 3: there's gonna be I think it's just a ton of

362
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,960
Speaker 3: action on this game relative to what we you'd see

363
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 3: in a normal Premier League match, So I yeah, really

364
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 3: interested to see because these are two public sides, at

365
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 3: least here in the States. BJ. What are your thoughts

366
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 3: here on the North London Derby.

367
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,159
Speaker 1: I'm steering towards both of both of you guys, So

368
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 1: I'm looking at a both team to score no which

369
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 1: is currently a plus one thirty five. I think it's

370
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,959
Speaker 1: we have an inflata both teams to score because it

371
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 1: is Arsenal and Tottenham and it's supposedly two of the

372
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,120
Speaker 1: best attacks in the Premier League. But to Anthony's point,

373
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:40,680
Speaker 1: you know our guy Mark stats, he tracks opponent build up,

374
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,439
Speaker 1: a completion percentage, which is a good indicator of how

375
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 1: well you're disrupting opponents when they're actually trying to build

376
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:47,680
Speaker 1: up rather than just you know, whether it be in

377
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 1: transition or whatever like that. Arsenal second behind only Liverpool

378
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 1: in that category, the Tottenham sitting around fourteenth thirteenth and

379
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 1: that and then the first meeting between Arsenal, Arsenal had

380
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 1: a ninety point three percent build up completion percentage and

381
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 1: Todam's passage for defense faction was nineteen point five. So

382
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,879
Speaker 1: the game plan was, like you mentioned, Michael is park

383
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 1: the white bus in front of the eighteen yard box

384
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 1: and just try and defend for our lives and then

385
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:14,359
Speaker 1: look to counter, which is what we've seen a lot

386
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 1: from Tottenham this season. I mean, Arsenal had twenty one

387
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 1: to ten plus pass sequences and held a lot of

388
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 1: possession in that match. And I don't to Anthony, like

389
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,959
Speaker 1: to your point, it's like what's changed since then? Not

390
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 1: really much. I'd say Tottham has probably gotten a little

391
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 1: bit worse and Arsenal's kind of improved. I'd say over

392
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,159
Speaker 1: that time span. You know, the match against Crystal Palace

393
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 1: is a perfect match. Not to overreact to. You know,

394
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: Tottenham created one point four expected goals. They just finished

395
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: at a very high rate. The match got open, they

396
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 1: were able to convert a couple of their chances. But

397
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 1: I mean this Arsenal defense is still incredible. I mean

398
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,119
Speaker 1: they are one of the best set piece defenses in

399
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 1: the Premier League, which is big. They've only conceded one

400
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 1: set piece goal and only around three and change expected

401
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 1: which has been because Spurs obviously leads to the Premier

402
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 1: League and set piece goals and it's where they create

403
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 1: a lot of their chances. And on the flip side

404
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 1: of that, you know, Tottenham is a really really good defense.

405
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 1: I mean they they're allowing just close under a little

406
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 1: over one expected goal for ninety minutes right now. They

407
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: have one of the lowest x giper shots in the

408
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 1: Premier League. They're very very good at defending set pieces,

409
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 1: which is big against Arsenal, who actually is number one

410
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 1: in x GP per set piece. So I think the

411
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 1: the script here is going to be, like you guys said, Tom,

412
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 1: Them's gonna sit very deep and they're going to look

413
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 1: to counter. But I'm not so sure they're going to

414
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 1: be able to do that against Arsenal. So that steers

415
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 1: me towards this both teams to score no, whereas we're

416
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 1: going to see sort of a stalemate for about the

417
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 1: first forty five minutes here, and we're basically going to

418
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 1: be relying on Arsenal or Tottenham to convert some low

419
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 1: quality chances because I don't really see a path for

420
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: Tottenham creating over one expected goal here unless they break

421
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 1: get a couple big scoring chances, which I again, the

422
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 1: only big scoring chance that happened against Newcastle for Arsenal

423
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 1: was also off a corner, so we'll see. But again,

424
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 1: I think this is setting up. I'm very cautious because

425
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 1: I really want to just say Arsenal is going to

426
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 1: smack them, because I really think they are. But I'm

427
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: being very cautiously optimistic because I know how these things work.

428
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: As soon as I think Arsenals can be better than Tottenham,

429
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 1: Harry Kane scores two goals from outside the box, and

430
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: then Huntman's son, you know, scores another one from outside

431
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 1: the box and throws his mask at the ground, So

432
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna steer clear of that. But yeah, the both

433
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 1: team to score no, I think it's pretty inflated here

434
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: at plus one thirty five, So that's where I'm going

435
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 1: with this one.

436
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, I mean, home teams have just dominated

437
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 2: this rivalry and like I don't really care that much

438
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: about like past history, but it is I mean, it

439
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 2: is interesting that you know, Arsenal haven't won it Spurs

440
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 2: since two thy and fourteen. They play every year.

441
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: Arsenal has sucked on the road though for so many years.

442
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 2: In the Premiere Land and they have not been a

443
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 2: great away team. But they also, like Arsenal haven't lost

444
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 2: to Spurs at home since twenty ten, so like it

445
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 2: has been just a rivalry, a derby dominated by the

446
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 2: home team. And I do expect a much better effort

447
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 2: and showing from Spurs in this match. I wouldn't, you know.

448
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: I think the market's about right. I mean there was

449
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: a Arsenal got to minus one o five a couple

450
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 2: of weeks ago, and I looked at it and I

451
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: was like, I have value on Tottenham here, like I

452
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 2: needed pet Spurs, but I didn't. And I'm glad now

453
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 2: that it's come back because I can pass on the

454
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 2: side and roll with what will likely end up being

455
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 2: an under by a kick.

456
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll see, because you know, Klusevski and Charlson

457
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: are both questionable right now, Like if they play that

458
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 1: that if they play, that's massive Spurs, especially because you

459
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: know Charlson played in the first meeting. If they both

460
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 1: don't play, then it's you know, it's a lot more

461
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 1: Harry Kane, huntman Son and I don't really, it's gonna

462
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 1: be very difficult trying to progress the ball field against Arsenal.

463
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 3: Look at the table real quick before we go to

464
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 3: our next game, because it is relevant. Arsenal there at

465
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 3: the top forty four points on seventeen matches, played City

466
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 3: five points behind them thirty nine and seventeen. Newcastle and

467
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:07,479
Speaker 3: United both on thirty five, Tottenham and thirty three. Manchester

468
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 3: United has played seventeen Newcastle and Tottenham have both played

469
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,719
Speaker 3: one more than that. United are plus three fifty hosting

470
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 3: City minus one twenty five the draws plus two sixty.

471
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 3: Of course, these odds are from VET three six five

472
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 3: for the Manchester derby. Here are their numbers since October first,

473
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: man United seven two and two win, draw loss, nineteen

474
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 3: goals for twelve goals against twenty point six expectacles for

475
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 3: eleven point one expectacles against City seven one and two,

476
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 3: so seven wins, one draw, two losses, twenty two goals for,

477
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 3: ten goals against, twenty one point five expected goles for

478
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 3: ten point three expectacles against. I know, yeah, United's played

479
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: one more match in that span, but the numbers just

480
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 3: aren't all that different. And City's coming off another weird performance.

481
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 3: We've said it every season about or you know, in

482
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 3: our two seasons, like City just will be they'll throw

483
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 3: up a dud now and then, and we really meant

484
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 3: now and then, like very very rarely, like you'll get

485
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 3: a weird City performance. Maybe they'll do one in the

486
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 3: group stage of the Champions League, one in the first

487
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 3: half of the Premier League season, then one in the second.

488
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 3: But they seem more prevalent now. And they just drew

489
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 3: Everton at home, and then they lost to Southampton and

490
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 3: the Carabell Cup, albeit with some really good players on

491
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 3: the bench. I think it's United or Nothing here at

492
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 3: home in good form. This is a big one for them.

493
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 3: The price is plus three fifty. I wish it was

494
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 3: a little higher, but it would be United or nothing.

495
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 3: BJ you start to sound like you're coming around on

496
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: the Red Devils and you're just gonna put the handbrake

497
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 3: on that.

498
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I am listen. United's been on tary lately, Michael.

499
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: Nine point one expected goals in their last four matches.

500
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: Here's the murderer's role. They've played Fulham, Nottingham, Forest Wolves

501
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: and Bournemouth the previous five matches. Before that, they had

502
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,719
Speaker 1: to play some difficult competition Newcastle, Tottenham, Chelsea, West Ham

503
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: and Aston Villa. Credit just four point eight expected goals

504
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: in those five matches. City is going to be a

505
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: completely different animal for Manchester United, just like they were

506
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: in their meeting on October second. City demolished Manchester United

507
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: in that match. And I'm sitting here asking myself what

508
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: has changed so drastically where I should be looking at

509
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: betting Manchester United, and I'm saying really not much. I

510
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: mean obviously, because here's the thing is that if we

511
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: go back to that, go back in time United we

512
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: were in the exact same scenario where United was coming

513
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,239
Speaker 1: off four straight wins. Everything was looking good. They had

514
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: beaten Liverpool at home, they had beaten Arsenal at home.

515
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: Things were good under Eric Tennhag and then Pep just

516
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 1: absolutely demolished them. They scored six goals, all of them

517
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: off process. And here's the big, big problem and a

518
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: little bit of what City did against Chelsea in the

519
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 1: league match as post of the FA Cup is Pep

520
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 1: went with a completely different formation and he started to

521
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: create overloads on the left side of the pitch, but

522
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: he wanted to build up from the right, so he

523
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 1: would push Holland, Bernardo Silva and Voden over to the

524
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: left to force Chelsea to commit bodies over there, and

525
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: then he'd leave de Bruyna, Mares and Gonzalo on the

526
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 1: right and essentially they have three V threes or three

527
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: V twos and allow them to get space and just

528
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: cross the ball into the box. Because City their attacking

529
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: players are some of the best in the world at

530
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,880
Speaker 1: finding that half space in the box or making those

531
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: runs to be able to get on the end of

532
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: those chances, whether it be Holland, whether it be Voden

533
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: or whoever. United really struggled defending that in the last meeting.

534
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: Because now they have Casamiro and that's wonderful and he's

535
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 1: one of the best defensive midfielders of the world and

536
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: he's really solved Manchester United's transition defensive problems. But guys

537
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 1: like Aaronson, Fernanz Rashford Antony, They're not good at defending

538
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 1: those half spaces. They're not good at pressing. So if

539
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: they're gonna get pinned in for a majority of the

540
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 1: match like they were the last time, I have a

541
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: hard time seeing if the City's gonna have so many

542
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 1: of these opportunities to cross the ball in or find

543
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 1: that half space with these average to below average defenders

544
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: trying to defend some of these attacking midfielders. It's a

545
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 1: big problem. If you go back and watch the highlights.

546
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 1: The first two goals, it came off of Ericson just

547
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: not following a pote and run. The second goal came

548
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: off a corner where Rickson once again just lost Holland

549
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 1: through the bodies and didn't really commit to it because

550
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: he's just not a good defender. I mean, he's more

551
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 1: of an attacking, attacking midfielder. So we'll see. We'll see

552
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: if ten Hogs is a little bit different lineup, Maybe

553
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: he goes with two defensive midfielder, which I think would

554
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: be a big time benefit for him. So I had

555
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: to sit and ask myself, I'm like, why am I

556
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: staying away from City? Here, Like, I think this is

557
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: gonna be another city route. I think United hasn't faced

558
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: good competition in a really, really, really long time, and

559
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna get their doors blown off once again. So

560
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 1: I love Manchester City on the money line minus won

561
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: twenty five. I'd actually don't really project much value on it,

562
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: but you just gotta do after watching the bat like,

563
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: what's going to change? I don't think much.

564
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 2: Before the next show. I think I have I have

565
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 2: some space over my shoulder. I think I'm going to

566
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 2: get a sign It says it has been x days

567
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: since DJ last bet against Manchester United, and.

568
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 3: Then no under that it should be it has been

569
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 3: x day since BJ one a bed.

570
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: Same number, Yeah, exactly, But I mean this is I

571
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 1: mean I think the match is like, from just a

572
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: straight up projection standpoint, the match is priced a little

573
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: bit correctly, but from a matchup standpoint, I just don't

574
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: see how United is going to defend all of the

575
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: City's attackers in space, as we've seen from the previous

576
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: meetings with them. So yeah, I'm all over city here.

577
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 3: I like it. No, I I think you know BJ.

578
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 3: I like when when when you start to when you go,

579
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 3: but when Also, when you take your numbers, you look

580
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 3: at them and you get mad at them. I think

581
00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: you're mad at your You know.

582
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: What it was, Michael, It was like, okay, because United,

583
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: if you look through their extgy results, they've created over

584
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: two expected goals in their last four matches against you know,

585
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: Murder's role, like I already mentioned. And we're at the

586
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: point in the season now where pretty much everybody's played,

587
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: everybody wants so strength to schedule is kind of muted

588
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: or pretty much the same for everybody. So I'm sitting

589
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: here and I'm being like, United is just getting overvalued

590
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: here because they just went on this crazy run. And

591
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,959
Speaker 1: again I've said it on many times on the podcast,

592
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: but I I mean, Rashford and martiall Is, are they

593
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 1: really the best, you know, an elite striking duo that

594
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: puts the fear of God into opposing defenses? I don't

595
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: think so.

596
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that. I think Rashford's running really

597
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: really well right now. He's been hot, he's been one

598
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: of the best players in the league, and probably some

599
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: regression coming there. I mean, they're not getting anything out

600
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 2: of Antony. I mean, I hate to be like Bust,

601
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 2: but not getting anything out of Antony in terms of shots,

602
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: like all of his shots are just bad shots. And

603
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: Marshall's fine. I don't think he's great, and I think

604
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 2: United we have seen the transition United as much lately.

605
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: I think it's very interesting to see how that looks

606
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: in this setup against City, who, in the opposite of Arsenal,

607
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 2: has actually taken a step back in their ability to

608
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 2: disrupt teams. Like they were used to be second behind

609
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 2: Liverpool an opponent pass completion percentage. Now they're down to

610
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 2: about seventh. That's so interesting. You know, they're letting teams

611
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 2: have the ball more, they're not pressing as much. Holland

612
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: doesn't do a ton of pressing from the front, and

613
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: like Jesus and Sterling were pressers. So I think that's

614
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: like the main difference, but from a matchup point of view,

615
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: from a number point of view rather, I actually think

616
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: this is a little bit inflated on City. I have

617
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: City minus one oh nine, so that means I have United,

618
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: you know, plus one oh nine to get a result

619
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 2: in this match, which is right right right in line

620
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: with the market. So I think City's a little overinflated.

621
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: I don't really have a Ton on United either though,

622
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,479
Speaker 2: so I'm not really going there. This is implying United's

623
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 2: barely better than Chelsea. I mean we just saw this match.

624
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 2: City went to Chelsea last week. It was like minus

625
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: one forty. I think United's clearly better than Chelsea at

626
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: the moment. But I agree with BJM and he mentioned

627
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: the teams they've faced in the last three or four

628
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 2: matches really since the World Cup break. You know, you

629
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 2: get the three in the league with Forrest Bourde Myth,

630
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: don't say Wolves, It's not gonna get any better than that.

631
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: But then they get a Cup match, yeah, and then

632
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: they get another Cup match against Charlton. I mean, you're

633
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: not going to get a better run than that. And

634
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 2: so I do think United has done really well and

635
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: everybody's high on United, but they have not faced a

636
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 2: good defense in the last since the World Cup. They

637
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 2: have not faced a team that you would consider an

638
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 2: above average defense in the PREM. Now they're going to

639
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 2: face the best defense in the PREM in City. So

640
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 2: there's regression coming there. And like this City attack, I mean,

641
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: they're just not getting the shot numbers they were getting

642
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 2: last year either. Their shots are way down. Yes, Holland

643
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: is Holland and betting against that man is asking for

644
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 2: a death sentence, but I do it regularly and I'm

645
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 2: happy to bet against both of these attacks and bet

646
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: the under three. You can find a minus one twenty

647
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,479
Speaker 2: seven minus one thirties are out there willing to lay

648
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 2: a little bit of juice here. I know there was

649
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: nine goals in the first meeting, but if you go

650
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 2: back and look, I think this is kind of similar

651
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: to the Chelsea match where United is struggling to get shots,

652
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 2: but they've been so improved defensively, that's the biggest thing.

653
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 2: I mean, they did concede to Everton in the Cup,

654
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 2: but in the league, even against the so called better

655
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: teams that they faced, they were conceding, you know, less

656
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: than one expected goal to Villa, even though you know

657
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 2: they did lose that match, less than one to Forest,

658
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: less than one to Bourne. Myth. You can even go

659
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: back to the Spurs match to the Chelsea match, like

660
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: they've taken clear steps forward in defense, and I think

661
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 2: that will help them mitigate this matchup, whereas I think

662
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: when they played early in the season there was not

663
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 2: the improved defense set in place yet for United. So

664
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: I'm like the under again and wish me luck.

665
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 1: And by the way, just real quick, United's upcoming schedule.

666
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: They've got Palace next Wednesday in a makeup match, then

667
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: they got an EFL Cup match at Forest, and then

668
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: they're going to Arsenal. Who is sitting there at minus

669
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: one ten right now? Just for everybody out there, all.

670
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 3: Right, Pacha, I don't know what you're trying to say there,

671
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 3: but we'll move on. We'll move on there to Brighton

672
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 3: and Liverpool. Brighton's plus two forty, Liverpool's plus one ten

673
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 3: to draw here a weekend, plus two sixty a weekend.

674
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 3: I don't even know if we need to discuss this

675
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 3: at all. If you've been so, if you're new to this,

676
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,239
Speaker 3: if you're new to this podcast, here's a spoiler. All

677
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 3: three of us are going to be on Brighton. If

678
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 3: you're old to this podcast, you know exactly what we're

679
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 3: going to say. Brighton here, the Seagles are four two

680
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 3: and five under deserve be in the Premier League plus

681
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 3: one goal differential in that time, twenty one goals scored,

682
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 3: crazy twenty goals there, and they're so eighteen point three

683
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 3: goals expectacles for sixteen point five expectacles allowed. That is

684
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: the key here. They're an offensive dynamo and they're gonna

685
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 3: be playing a really pedestrian their standards defense that's missing.

686
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: Virgil Van Dyke, I don't really think, Yeah, I don't

687
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 3: really need to go much further than that, so I'll

688
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 3: pass it over to you guys. It's gonna be funny.

689
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 3: I mean, I would love to see Yurga Klapp just

690
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:14,959
Speaker 3: set up park the bus.

691
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: He has to, yeah, like what else? Like literally, that's

692
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 1: what he has to do if he wants any chance

693
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 1: of keeping Brighton off the board. Like I'm dead serious,

694
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: Like this is insane.

695
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: Uh so Liverpool that they're not going to do that.

696
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: I know, I know they're not going to do that,

697
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 1: But Anthony, I mean you know this. You've seen what

698
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 1: Brighton has been able to do. I mean they did

699
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 1: it under Deserby's first match in charge against Liverpool. They

700
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 1: completely went right through the middle of the pitch. They

701
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: beat him on the wings, they beat him everywhere. And

702
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: if Liverpool, Okay, here's the big thing with Liverpool, and

703
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, what's the everybody says, what's the

704
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: problem with Liverpool right now? Why are they so bad defensively?

705
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 1: Why aren't they playing like the Liverpool that we've seen

706
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: the past two years. They're not being able to run

707
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 1: people over in the midfield anymore, and so they they're

708
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: just old. I think something Anthony said had been you

709
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 1: know a couple of podcast ago is that Jordan Henderson, Thago, Fabinho,

710
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 1: they're just getting old and they just can't cover ground

711
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: like they used to. And I read a wonderful article

712
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 1: in The Analyst. I apologize I don't remember the name

713
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: of the author who wrote it, but Liverpool essentially what

714
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 1: they're doing right now is that Darwin Nuniaz is typically

715
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: on an island up front as a nine, and you

716
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: know Sala whoever's playing on the left, usually like to

717
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 1: push wide to you know, push the defense out, create

718
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: space in the middle so that they can make runs

719
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 1: into the box. Well, right now Liverpool is having to

720
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: play in midfield usually of Fabinho, Thiago and Harvey Elliott.

721
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: Harvey Elliott. It's just not a guy who's going to

722
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: make runs in the box. He's much more of a

723
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: ball carrier creator, somebody who's going to get the ball

724
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: onto Darwin Nunia as Sala whoever, which means Thago or

725
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: Fabinho or Jordan Henderson, whatever combination is playing, or the

726
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: other two midfield spots. They're the ones having to make

727
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 1: runs into the box, which once Liverpool loses the ball,

728
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: they are incredibly exposed in transition defense. And like you

729
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,840
Speaker 1: guys already mentioned, someone like Virgil van Dyke in the

730
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 1: past has cleaned up a lot of that, a lot

731
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 1: of that mess. Well, now they don't have him, obviously,

732
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: I think Ibrahim Knte is a fine replacement. Like this

733
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 1: is I'm not going to overreact to Virgil van Dyke out.

734
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: It might That's my point is that it might be

735
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: an upgrade because I because what you'll see a lot

736
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 1: is people being like, oh my gosh, this is what

737
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 1: Liverpool was defensively in twenty twenty one when Van Dyke

738
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 1: was out. Mattiep and Joe Gomas were also out that

739
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: almost that entire season. And now we're in a situation

740
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 1: where Van Dyke's out and that's it. So I don't

741
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 1: think Liverpool's defense is really going to like completely drop off,

742
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: but they have still been pretty bad. And this is

743
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: something that we've been mentioning, is that Liverpool's tenth and

744
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goal is allowed like they're eleventh and

745
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: big scoring chances allowed and Allison is still running ridiculously hot.

746
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: He's a plus nine post shout actually plus minus. And

747
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: if we go back to the first match where it

748
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 1: was a three to three just chaotic draw between Brighton

749
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: and Liverpool, Brighton went up two goals early and what

750
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 1: it was is they couple of high turnovers. They're obviously

751
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 1: a very good pressing team and if you have problems

752
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: in the midfield, Brighton is not the team you want

753
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: to face because Brighton can play right through the middle

754
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 1: of the pitch, they can play out wide. Metoma has

755
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: become like literally the best ballcarrier in the Premier League

756
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 1: by all the metrics that everybody sees. He's gonna be

757
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 1: going against Trent alejand Arnold, who's a terrible defender. So

758
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: there's so many problems here for Liverpool. I really really

759
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: questioned how they're going to defend Brighton.

760
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 3: Now.

761
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: Obviously Deservey has been playing very open, which obviously leads

762
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 1: these chaotic matches, but I don't see how Liverpool is

763
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: gonna keep Brighton out of the net. So and just

764
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: from a price point standpoint, Arsenal is plus one fifteen,

765
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 1: Like what a week and a half ago at Brighton

766
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: and now Liverpool's plus one oh five. So the market's

767
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: telling you even with all the injuries. Oh, by the way,

768
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: Diego Jota, Luis Diaz, probably Bobby Formino are gonna be out,

769
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: all still gonna be out for this match, Like this

770
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: is an insane price. So obviously we're all gonna betting Brighton.

771
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 1: Thinking Brighton over one and a half goals, I'm thinking

772
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 1: Brighton reverse puck line, I'm thinking Brighton money line, and

773
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: obviously Brighton plus a half. You might want the same

774
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: game partably that, but yeah, anyway you want to bet Brighton.

775
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: This is I feel very similar to this spot as

776
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 1: I did when United went to Brentford, when Chelsea went

777
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: to Brighton, when Chelsea went to Brentford. Essentially it's just

778
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 1: Brighton or Brentford whenever they get one of the big

779
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: six teams that's on a bad run, like these are

780
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: the spots you absolutely dream of if you bet the

781
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: Premier League.

782
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: So yes, we will all be on bright Yeah it's funny.

783
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 2: I mean the most fun I've had all year in

784
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: the prem is probably that Brentford Liverpool game. Victory lap time.

785
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 2: Like we talked about transition issues, we talked about set

786
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 2: piece issues for Liverpool defensively, all came to bear in

787
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 2: the first half against Brentford and then you know, Fandel

788
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 2: forgot that Ivan Tony was out and didn't alter the

789
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: anytime goal scorers on Wisa and Baimo. So it ended

790
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: up being a very fun afternoon. And of course it's

791
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 2: always fun when Liverpool goes down despite Far's attempts to

792
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 2: save them. But yeah, I agree with you guys. I mean,

793
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 2: we don't have to repeat all this. I think Arsenal

794
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: is marginally better than Liverpool. Liverpool's better price here, similar

795
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 2: price than the Arsenal was at Brighton two weeks ago.

796
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 2: Metold you mentioned him third in the Prem in successful

797
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: dribbles per ninety amongst players. At least it's going to

798
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 2: be great, yes, And that's the thing like Matoma is

799
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 2: awesome and another w for the Brighton scott In department.

800
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 2: But yeah, the goals. They don't do as well on

801
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 2: set pieces, so that's not as quite as much of

802
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 2: an advantage. But I mean this is I love a

803
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 2: lot of unders in the prem right now. I think

804
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 2: all these teams have run really well. These are two

805
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 2: teams where I will not touch an under at the

806
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 2: current number. I almost like the over BTTs over two

807
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 2: and a half has been like the cash cow of

808
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: cash cows. Under deserby, You know you want to keep

809
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 2: riding that. I don't hate it either, but yeah, I

810
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 2: like Brighton.

811
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 3: All right, Onto Leads and Aston Villa. This one's at

812
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 3: Villa Park Villa odds on, I just want ten hosting

813
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 3: leads three to one. The draw is plus two sixty.

814
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 3: We know Jesse Marsh's Leads are defensive disasters, even though

815
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 3: Anthony won't admit it, and they're taking on they're taking

816
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 3: on Huniamory, one of the best managers you'll ever see

817
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 3: in any sport. Really he could. If if one of

818
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,439
Speaker 3: these NFL teams wanted to just hire Huniamory, they'd atom

819
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 3: they'd win their wildcard game, even if they were the underdog.

820
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 3: I don't know who's a big underdog this week, the Dolphins.

821
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: The Dolphins could could hire this guy and he'd have

822
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: them set up to beat the Patriots or whoever they're playing, Uh,

823
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 3: the the villains. Like I said, their odds on, Emory's

824
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:37,399
Speaker 3: got them. It looks like they're playing better, They're they're

825
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 3: creating more offensively, which is it's fun to say after

826
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 3: Steven Gerrard, Anthony's boy just thought the way he's going

827
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: to manage Poland and he's going to manage Manny Cash,

828
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 3: which is great. But stand again, what Gerard just yeah,

829
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 3: I mean, they just think they He thought you could

830
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:02,720
Speaker 3: win soccer matches by not scoring. Didn't work. I actually

831
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 3: think Villa are a little inflated here. Maybe it's the

832
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 3: Leads being a little underrated. If this match was played

833
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: on the other side of the World Cup break and

834
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 3: I know, like there's a lot to talk about there

835
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 3: because of the manager change or whatever, I don't think

836
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: it'd be this high, so it would be Leads here.

837
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 3: For me, I think I'm gonna bet him. I'm just

838
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 3: gonna see where this goes. I know you guys don't

839
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 3: have much, so I'll just go quickly to you, Anthony

840
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 3: before we move on your thoughts here on Leads and Villa.

841
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: I mean, this is like the Dubundo Bowl and two

842
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 2: teams I love coming into the year for various different reasons,

843
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 2: one of which has been kind of in line with expects.

844
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: I think both have largely been in line after with

845
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 2: expectations after Villa was below them with Gerard and now

846
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 2: they've kind of progressed back. But yeah, I have the

847
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 2: market right in line here. I didn't bet the first

848
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 2: time these teams played. I'm not betting this one either.

849
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 2: Probably the easiest pass on the board for me.

850
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 3: All right, BJ, you're also passing so we can move

851
00:41:58,160 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 3: on to Villa.

852
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: Did you just lose stevenage?

853
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 3: And yeah, we don't know. We don't need it.

854
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 2: We don't need two goals the stoppage time, we don't need.

855
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 3: A Yeah, Caramel Cup. FA Cup. Stuff is so hard,

856
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 3: especially with the the fixtures just piling up after the

857
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 3: World Cup. I kind of feel for these teams. Uh

858
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 3: Forrest and Leicester, Little Derby up there in the Midlands.

859
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 3: Uh noting Forests plus one seventy five at the city

860
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 3: ground hosting Leicester plus one sixty another relegation six pointer here,

861
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 3: Anthony the draws plus two thirty quickly run through it

862
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 3: h Saints at the bottom of the table Southampton they're

863
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 3: on twelve points, Wolves nineteenth at fourteen points, Everdon and

864
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 3: west Ham are tied to fifteen points. Everdon in eighteenth

865
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 3: on gold differential Bournemouth at sixteen, then Forrest leads and

866
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 3: Leicester on seventeen. So two teams here on seventeen points,

867
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 3: two teams that a win is a huge result for

868
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: either side, just a huge result to put some true

869
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 3: kind of cushion between them and the drop zone depending

870
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 3: on the results. Notingam Forrest is three wins, four draws,

871
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: four losses in their least eleven games, three wins and

872
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 3: four drawers. They got results in seven out of eleven.

873
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 3: They scored seven goals. We've got a minus ten goal

874
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 3: differential in that span. Something's coming for them, and we

875
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 3: just keep talking about how we've been waiting. You know,

876
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 3: we want to bet against this Leicester team every chance

877
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,919
Speaker 3: we can, but this is not one of the spots.

878
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 3: I actually would look at Lester here more than more

879
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 3: than Forest, which is saying something because I like this

880
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 3: Forest team. So I'm gonna be passing Anthony.

881
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 2: What do you have?

882
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 3: This is?

883
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 2: So I was looking at the market during the boxing

884
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 2: day rhet or after boxing day, and I was just

885
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 2: like looking at look aheadlines on other books and about

886
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 2: three six five, of course, and Boris was like a

887
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 2: huge underdog here. They were plus one thirty on the

888
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 2: draw no bet line, and I was like, I don't

889
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 2: care what happens in the next week and a half.

890
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 2: There's no way that number is right. So if you

891
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 2: follow me the app like I grabbed Forest early, the

892
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,959
Speaker 2: market has come heavy, heavy Forest, and the market likes Forest.

893
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 2: I mean they got steam against Wolves today, they took

894
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 2: some money and they've taken a ton of money in

895
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 2: this game. Lester just isn't a good attack at all.

896
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 2: I mean they have not been good. Their regression is coming,

897
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 2: They're not getting close in shots, the high quality looks

898
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 2: in front of goal have not been their shrunk suit,

899
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 2: and now they're dealing with a bunch of injuries with

900
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: Madison being out, it's hard to make the case. And look,

901
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: Forrest has gotten their their butts kicked many times in

902
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 2: this league, but when they're at home, like, they have

903
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 2: been a solid team who's given good, good effort, good

904
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 2: fight at the city ground. So it's Forest to nothing

905
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 2: now at the current number. But you're laying minus one

906
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 2: ten on the drawn no bet. I think Lester's marginally better.

907
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:39,439
Speaker 2: They're on the roads like now, I think the number

908
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 2: is right. But this is a classic example of like

909
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: the number does matter as much as we talk about

910
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: like regression and who's overrated, who's underrated relitive to the market.

911
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 2: The market is starting to hate Lester and I am

912
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 2: starting to not be able to bet against them at

913
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:54,479
Speaker 2: the current number.

914
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 3: So it's a pass here, BJ, What do you have?

915
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 1: Both teams have score no Plus one fifteen. Uh you

916
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 1: remember this match the previous between these two, it was

917
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: really dumb. Lester scored three goals from outside the box

918
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 1: they created one point three expected. Two of those goals

919
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: came from James Madison, who, like Anthony already mentioned, it's

920
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 1: gonna be out for this match. He leads lesser and

921
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 1: goals seven goals up two point six expected. And to

922
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 1: Anthony's point, yeah, I mean Lester. We say it time

923
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: and time again, like they have one of the longest

924
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: average shots distance in the distances in the Premier League.

925
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: They don't create a lot of high quality chances, so

926
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 1: they're going up against another three to five to two

927
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 1: low block. But the flip side of that is for us,

928
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: you know, the markets obviously come down on them, so

929
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: you can't bet them, but also they're probably gonna be

930
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: without Allen aUI Morgan gives White and Jesse Linguard, like

931
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: Allen Owi and Gives White are their two highest x

932
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: G plus expected sis per ninety minute guys. So being

933
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 1: without two of their best attackers, even though this lesser

934
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: defense has not been good, uh, I find it very

935
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: very hard to see how the two teams are actually

936
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 1: to create a lot of high quality chances. So for

937
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: both teams to score, no, that's that's sitting at plus

938
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: one fifteen. I think that's a really good price. So

939
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:05,479
Speaker 1: that's what I'll be playing.

940
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: All right, we'll head to the Black Country, but we'll

941
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 3: stay in the relegation fight. West Ham visiting Wolves at

942
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,439
Speaker 3: the mile and you Wolverhampton plus one sixty two west

943
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 3: Ham plus one seventy the draws.

944
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 1: This is andy, This is both teams to score. Come on,

945
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: I know, I know you want to do it.

946
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 2: I know you so bad. This last time right up,

947
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: the classes scored and I went crazy, and then they

948
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 2: threw up the flag and I was like, nop, They're

949
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 2: never scoring. But yes, this is the spot, I mean,

950
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 2: of all spots. West Ham incredibly up against the wall here.

951
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 2: I just think the tactics for these teams kind of

952
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 2: just cancel each other out. I mean, Wolves doesn't want

953
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 2: to do anything with the ball. West Ham will let

954
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: Wolves have the ball and do nothing with it. They're

955
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 2: super passive out out of possession. But like they can't

956
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 2: draw right, Like Moyes is not going to save his

957
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 2: job with a bunch of draws.

958
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 1: They Yeah, they have dried over his entire career to

959
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:56,240
Speaker 1: do that, Anthony.

960
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I just don't know if it's enough anymore.

961
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: That's the question. Do they have to go for this?

962
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 2: Because if they have to go for it, I love

963
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 2: both teams to score. I think that it's undervalued a

964
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,720
Speaker 2: little bit. Uh, you know, they get the draw with leads.

965
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 2: They were pushing at the end. West Ham was so like,

966
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 2: you know, give them credit for that. But yeah, this

967
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: is a both teams a score spot for me on

968
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 2: on west Ham and Wolves and it's just a classic

969
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 2: Wolves over. I mean, it's a beautiful thing.

970
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 3: It's a classic bet.

971
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 1: Two goals should have been three against Liverpool in the

972
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 1: FA Cup.

973
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: I had both teams to score and I don't know

974
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 2: if you saw the first goal.

975
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 1: I didn't.

976
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 2: Alison insane screw up, just kicked it right to I

977
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 2: don't even know who it was for Wolves, but oh, yeah,

978
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 2: I saw empty net tap and immediately after I got

979
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 2: the goal, alert that it was one zero and I

980
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,799
Speaker 2: was like, like, both teams to score is loot now?

981
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 2: Like we got the Wolves goal and then I saw

982
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 2: that somebody sent me the video and all I could

983
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 2: do was cackle because Allison has cost me so much

984
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 2: money over the years, over the last year because of

985
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: just god likability and one on ones and to get

986
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 2: some back on this liberal just just win money fading.

987
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 2: This Liverpool defense all year has just been beautiful. But yeah,

988
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 2: both teams to score here, uh you know minus one

989
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 2: ten fifteens are out there. Hmm, It's gonna be hard

990
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 2: to keep me off it. I'm betting all totals this weekend,

991
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 2: so it's gonna go really, really poorly. I can't win

992
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 2: totals in this league.

993
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 3: So let's let's book the Sunday. We'll head to London.

994
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 3: Like we said, Chelsea is playing on Thursday and then

995
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 3: they're playing again Sunday. They're hosting Crystal Palace. Chelsea's minus

996
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 3: won sixty three, Palace plus four to twenty five, the

997
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 3: draws three to one. Palace is in bad form. They

998
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:39,919
Speaker 3: have one win out of their last four they've lost

999
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 3: three and that span two goals scored, eight goals allowed,

1000
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 3: obviously a lot of that is coming from Tottenham, and

1001
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 3: three expected goals created, five point six allowed. All that

1002
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 3: looks bad. But you just can't make Chelsea minus what

1003
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 3: sixty three against this team right now. I don't think

1004
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 3: even at home at home, I know Palace has not

1005
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 3: been good, but like we know, you just it's one

1006
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 3: of those things where the numbers look ugly and you're

1007
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 3: just like, this team is better than that. We saw

1008
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 3: it over a full season. We saw it, and they've

1009
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 3: They've got to keep the players who could score. Chelsea's

1010
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 3: dealing with an absolute onslaught of injuries. They don't look

1011
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 3: settled under Potter. It's a good spot. Short rest, this

1012
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 3: is a good spot. So Palace at better than four

1013
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 3: to one BJ don't shake your head.

1014
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 1: No, I I will probably end up being on Palace

1015
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: in this one. But the numbers come down. Chelsea opened

1016
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: at minus two fifteen and now we're found of mine.

1017
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 3: That's why we that's why we need Chelsea to storm

1018
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 3: Fullham exactly and not have that.

1019
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: So this this match and the next one we'll talk about,

1020
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 1: which is you know, Fulham and Newcastle. I'm gonna have

1021
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: this Chelsea Crystal Palace match, the odds for it at

1022
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 1: that three six five, and the Newcastle Fulham one open

1023
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 1: based on just whatever happens in that match, because I

1024
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 1: think the market's gonna move pretty drastically, Like if Fulham

1025
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 1: just somehow absolutely pays Chelsea, then we're probably gonna better

1026
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 1: number on new Castle. But anyway, Yeah, it's just man,

1027
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 1: it just keeps I keep saying. I said it a

1028
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 1: couple of podcasts ago. It's like, what's wrong with the

1029
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: Palace defense? Because it's like everything you look at, like

1030
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 1: every metric, they're just like fifteenth or sixteenth. It's that

1031
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:22,320
Speaker 1: they just allow a ton of expected goals to the

1032
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 1: Big Six. And it happened. I mean, the obviously allowed

1033
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 1: a ton of expected goals, but they just were not

1034
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 1: good defensively against Tottenham. So I'm gonna wait. I'll see

1035
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: what happens when we get there. We'll see what happens

1036
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 1: with the Chelsea injury situation. Like if everybody's still out,

1037
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard to keep me off Palace. So

1038
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 1: I will probably be there with you. This match is

1039
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 1: pretty you know, the last time these two teams faced,

1040
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 1: it was pretty dead, like Palace scored right away and

1041
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 1: then they tried to defend for their lives and they

1042
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:55,240
Speaker 1: couldn't and Chelsea end up winning two to one. But again,

1043
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 1: that was I think Potter's what second match in charge

1044
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 1: of Chelsea. So yeah, no, I'll probably end up being

1045
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: on Crystal Palace. But man, it's it's getting hard to

1046
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: play the Eagles right now.

1047
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:13,839
Speaker 2: Connor Gallagher hit like an eighty ninth minute yeah I remember, yeah,

1048
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 2: the top corner. Yeah, I mean like, but it was

1049
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: an even game and like Chelsea didn't create anything. It

1050
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,360
Speaker 2: was at Selhurst Park. But I mean, how is Chelsea

1051
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 2: getting margin right now? That's the thing. I mean, they

1052
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 2: have to win by more than a gold to cost

1053
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 2: us our bets, not Michael's bet, but to win our bet,

1054
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,399
Speaker 2: my bet, my cowardly plus one that I'm probably gonna

1055
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: end up being on. I won't bet anything until we

1056
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 2: see how they look against Fulham. I'm interested in that.

1057
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 2: I'm interested in kind of following up the Felix news here,

1058
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 2: could Ras be back Rahem Sterling for Sunday? Looks like

1059
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 2: maybe we'll know more as we go forward, but yeah,

1060
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:49,280
Speaker 2: it'd be Palace.

1061
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:53,760
Speaker 3: And nothing here Newcastle minus one eighty eight hosting Fulham

1062
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 3: who's playing Chelsea on Thursday. Fulham's five to one for

1063
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 3: this one the draws plus three thirty three. I think

1064
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 3: Newcastle is a okay parlay piece. Actually yeah, I'll talk

1065
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 3: about them with with with another team that we haven't

1066
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 3: got to yet as maybe the square parlay of the week.

1067
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:17,919
Speaker 3: It's Newcastle's numbers are on par with the best teams

1068
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 3: in the league over the past three months. So what

1069
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 3: what would we see this number? If if you covered

1070
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 3: up the name and you just slapped Liverpool next to

1071
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 3: you know, Newcastle's numbers, what would this number be? So

1072
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 3: it is a little cheap, I think, so yeah, it'd

1073
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 3: be like a Newcastle parlay with with with another team

1074
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 3: BJ I.

1075
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 1: Do like I do like Newcastle minus one here at

1076
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 1: minus one twenty. I mean we've already talked about Fulham

1077
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 1: on's how big of their aggression is. And the big

1078
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 1: thing about Fulham as well is like they've had a

1079
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 1: ton of penalty Look like they've been awarded five penalties,

1080
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: that's second most and primarily the only west Ham. So

1081
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 1: if you take away all of those penalties, they're actually

1082
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:03,800
Speaker 1: had a minus ten point four non penalty they expected

1083
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,399
Speaker 1: gold differential. That's the third worst in the Premier League,

1084
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 1: behind Bournemouth and the jersey of the team that Michael's

1085
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 1: wearing right now. So now we're getting a price here

1086
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 1: of Newcastle and minus one seventy five when in the

1087
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 1: past when they've gone to face Tottenham, Toddam has been

1088
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 1: minus too fifty. When they've gone to face Arsenal, Arsenal's

1089
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:25,240
Speaker 1: been minus too eighty. I'm not saying that necessarily Newcastle

1090
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 1: on the level of Arsenal, but for a price like

1091
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 1: this to be this cheap on Newcastle, I think this

1092
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 1: is the spot. I've been looking for a spot to

1093
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: fade this freaking fall on team forever and I tried

1094
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 1: to do in the FA Cup with Whole City and

1095
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:39,879
Speaker 1: I got a nice ninety fourth minute winner from Dan

1096
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 1: James to ruin a plus one.

1097
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 3: But.

1098
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 1: Alexander michivitually back. Obviously they're going to try to send

1099
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:48,879
Speaker 1: it to look to counter and send it a bunch

1100
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:51,240
Speaker 1: of crosses. Newcastle is a top seven team at defending

1101
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: process and Newcastle is also one of the best teams

1102
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 1: at disrupting build up play and direct play. And transition.

1103
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 1: So and the big thing here with Newcastle is they're

1104
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:02,839
Speaker 1: fully healthy. Alexander e. Shach's will be back no more

1105
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 1: Chris Woods, so obviously a major, major upgrade up front

1106
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 1: for Newcastle. The last time these two teams met, Fulham

1107
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:11,399
Speaker 1: got a red card in the eighth minutes. There's really

1108
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 1: just nothing you can take away from the match. I mean,

1109
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:16,360
Speaker 1: Fulham scored four goals created three point three, but again

1110
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 1: you can't really take away anything of that. But I mean,

1111
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:20,919
Speaker 1: Fulham's the second worst defense in the Premier League.

1112
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 2: Like they're good. I don't know. We did a point

1113
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 2: total draft the beginning of the season. They have control

1114
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 2: l FPL pod took Fulham under thirty seven and a half,

1115
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:34,399
Speaker 2: which is probably gonna be the first bet to lose

1116
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 2: they have.

1117
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 1: Oh my, my, Newcastle under is going to be right

1118
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:43,759
Speaker 1: behind him. No, Fulham has con seeded thirty three big

1119
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 1: scoring chances in eighteen matches, eleven point five expected goals

1120
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: can expected goals allowed. In their last seven Premier League matches,

1121
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 1: They've only allowed seven goals. So maybe burn Lane is

1122
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:58,479
Speaker 1: just the best goalkeeper in the world and Arsenals should

1123
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 1: have kept him. But no, Well, Newcastle minus one minus

1124
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 1: one twenty Actually do project Newcastle on minus two to fifty.

1125
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 1: I think it's kind of crazy that they're just sitting

1126
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 1: this low when we've looked at comparative prices of other

1127
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 1: Big Six clubs who have hosted Fulham. It's just yeah,

1128
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:15,359
Speaker 1: it's just it's too cheap. So with a full full

1129
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 1: strength Newcastle team, Fullham, obviously on short rest playing in London,

1130
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 1: have been traveled all the way up to the Northeast.

1131
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 1: If you've ever been to England, it's a hall to

1132
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 1: get all the way up there in Newcastle. So yes,

1133
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:28,319
Speaker 1: Newcastle minus one and minus one twenty three.

1134
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 3: All right, finally, let's talk about Bourne Myth and Brentford.

1135
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 3: This one will be at the Brentford Community Stadium. Brentford

1136
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 3: is minus one fifty four right now bet three sixty five,

1137
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:43,799
Speaker 3: Bourn Myth plus four to twenty five. That draws three

1138
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 3: to one. This is a Saturday game. I think Brentford

1139
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 3: and we talk about Brentford not being a great team

1140
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 3: as a favorite, not a team you want to really

1141
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 3: latest kind of juice against, but I don't mind doing

1142
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,960
Speaker 3: it in this case because they're playing a team that

1143
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 3: just shouldn't be able to score, So it's a can

1144
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 3: can Brentford get get one? And at home? I think

1145
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 3: they can. Can Brentford get two, then you basically can

1146
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:09,400
Speaker 3: can kick your feet up. So I actually like Brentford

1147
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 3: Newcastle parlaid on the money line and that's where I'll

1148
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:17,840
Speaker 3: be going even without Ivan. Tony is he is? He? Is?

1149
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 1: He for sure? Out of this one?

1150
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 2: He is injured?

1151
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:21,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's kind of.

1152
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 2: He's questionable for injury reasons. It's unclear if he's going

1153
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 2: to If he's injured, you can't look Tony or not.

1154
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 2: I do think this line is total is inflated. Like

1155
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:33,760
Speaker 2: the under Bournemouth can't score. I'll have more in depth

1156
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 2: analysis on the Action Network website that'll be up Friday.

1157
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,359
Speaker 2: I'm doing a full preview for this match. I bet

1158
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 2: the under a few weeks ago. Still love the under

1159
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:45,359
Speaker 2: plus one ten plus one oh five. I just think

1160
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:47,359
Speaker 2: this is the perfect time to play against the Bees.

1161
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:50,560
Speaker 2: And Bournemouth does one thing well, it's defense set pieces,

1162
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 2: so that's that takes away a major avenue Brentford dominance

1163
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 2: and attack and creating chances. So I like the the

1164
00:56:57,840 --> 00:56:58,880
Speaker 2: under again.

1165
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, anything for you here, BJ Before we yeah,

1166
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 3: I'm with you.

1167
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 1: I like Brentford. I think there's like I project him

1168
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 1: at minus one ninety so I think there is a

1169
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 1: decent projection edge here if you can find a minus

1170
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 1: one fifty five out there. The last time these two

1171
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:15,240
Speaker 1: faced off, I mean, Brentford did an outstanding job defending

1172
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 1: their penalty area. Bournemouth did pretty much nothing offensively, only

1173
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 1: point four expecting goals to have a shot on target.

1174
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 1: Brentford was able to control a lot of possession, did

1175
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 1: a lot of great progression and build up play, just

1176
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 1: really couldn't find the back of the net. Yeah, so

1177
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: this is another good spot for them, even if I

1178
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 1: even Tonia is out. I keep saying it. My guy

1179
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 1: Keen Lewis Potter, I think he's gonna be one of

1180
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 1: the names to watch in this one. He might be

1181
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 1: the one playing up front for Brentford. They also just

1182
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 1: signed I'm spacing on his name right now from Ryberg.

1183
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 1: After this, I'll be kicking myself in the name. But

1184
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 1: he might be coming in here in a few matches

1185
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 1: to maybe provide write a little help here up front

1186
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 1: if if Tonia is actually going to be out. So

1187
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 1: we'll see. But yeah, I do we actually project a

1188
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: little bit of value here on Brentford. They obviously play

1189
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:03,880
Speaker 1: much better at home than they do on the road.

1190
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 1: They actually have played pretty well against lesser competition this season.

1191
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 1: So give me the Beast minus one fifty five at home.

1192
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 3: Okay, let's run around Europe really quick before we talk

1193
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 3: about our favorite underdogs and then our best bet in

1194
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 3: the Premier League. We'll start in Italy. We'll start with you, Anthony.

1195
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's make it the weekly Roma bad at this point.

1196
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 2: I love them at home against Fiorentina. The market's saying

1197
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 2: that Roma is only slightly better than Fiorentina. I think

1198
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 2: they're much better, got them better by about point seven

1199
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 2: goals make them around minus one thirty here minus one

1200
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 2: thirty five. So I like Roma at even money at home.

1201
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 2: I know they're not necessarily a great favorite. They don't

1202
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 2: get margin, but I'm riding the high off of that

1203
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 2: miracle comeback against me Lan to get the point. Miracle absolutely,

1204
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 2: and I will donate those winnings to Roma money line

1205
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:54,600
Speaker 2: on the weekend.

1206
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 3: BJ what do you have for us in Syria?

1207
00:58:56,880 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 1: A I like Wodin essay even money against Bologna. If

1208
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 1: you look at the expected goals table. These two teams,

1209
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 1: there's really not much between them. You know, Udon essays

1210
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 1: about a plus one expected goal Diffranchi all Bolognia is

1211
00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 1: at minus four point five. But Udiness is a team

1212
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 1: that started out just red hot in the in in Syria.

1213
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:15,840
Speaker 1: I think they won around seven or eight matches in

1214
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 1: a row. We've kind of cooled off a little bit,

1215
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 1: a lot of draws, a lot. They've kind of been

1216
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 1: overvalued in the market. But I think this is a

1217
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 1: good spot for them because Bolognia, just a very very

1218
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 1: below average team, is going to be with how they

1219
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: have two midfielders suspended. Musabera, one of their best attackers,

1220
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 1: is going to be out. Joshua is aer Keisi, another

1221
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 1: good striker that they have that plays behind are not

1222
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:41,400
Speaker 1: to bitch excuse me just blinking on his name, is

1223
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 1: also going to be out for this one so very

1224
00:59:44,080 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 1: very muted attack here from Bologna that was already below

1225
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: average to begin with. So good spot here for UDINESSA

1226
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 1: at home project them around minus one thirty. So I

1227
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 1: like the price at plus one hundred.

1228
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 3: Uh LA Liga have no surprise here. I like Bobao

1229
00:59:57,360 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 3: their play plus two ten at Ri also s Dad

1230
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 3: bill Bao still the best defensive team in Spain by

1231
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:08,560
Speaker 3: expectacles allowed, and they are six points a drift of

1232
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 3: Sosia Dad and the table. But you look at their

1233
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 3: expectacle differential, it's nearly five goals better. It is a

1234
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 3: great underdog team, great underdog spot. So give me Los

1235
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 3: Leones plus two ten Anthony Spain.

1236
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean if you took the names off of

1237
01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 2: the jerseys and just looked at the underlying numbers between

1238
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 2: Girona and Sevilla, you would have a vastly different perception

1239
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 2: of these two teams. I mean, Girona's attacks been really good.

1240
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 2: They added Tati Castianos from NYCFC, and they're actually in

1241
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 2: the top half of the table, getting more shots per

1242
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:46,560
Speaker 2: ninety than Sosia Dodd, Celta, Vigo Virial and Osasuna, and

1243
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 2: of course their opponent in this match Sevilla, so they're

1244
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 2: a much better attacking team, and Sevilla hasn't been a

1245
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 2: good shot stopping either, preventing teams from getting shots, whereas

1246
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 2: giron is also an above average team in its allowed

1247
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 2: for ninety. So everything you look at across the board

1248
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 2: with Sevilla just screams just terrible team. Uh, and like

1249
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:09,920
Speaker 2: we mentioned, they've gotten really old. And if you look

1250
01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 2: at it, you want anybody want to guess who the

1251
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 2: leading score is for Sevie this season in the league,

1252
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 2: You'll never get it.

1253
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 1: Oh man, is it Conya?

1254
01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 2: No, It is a three way tie, one of which

1255
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 2: being Eric Yeah. So, and he's got the second most

1256
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 2: shots for them this year.

1257
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 3: So that really kind of gets it into perspective sectually

1258
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 3: not having a bad season, but like it's really bad

1259
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 3: for Sevilla and they're a worst team on the road,

1260
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 3: who they're barely worse than a pick them. So I'm

1261
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 3: gonna take your run on the money line at plus

1262
01:01:39,600 --> 01:01:41,200
Speaker 3: one forty. I love them at home in this spot.

1263
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 3: I think they roll. Uh, They're just better on both

1264
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 3: ends of the pitch, better in the midfield. So happy

1265
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 3: to happy to fade Sevia BJ for you in La Liga.

1266
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:53,960
Speaker 1: I both seems to score no at an insanely high price.

1267
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 2: I love that.

1268
01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:59,919
Speaker 1: I love doing. It's gonna be Majorca and Osasuna both

1269
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 1: teams to score no at minus one fifty. These are

1270
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 1: two actually the top five defensive teams and non penalty

1271
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed shots loud for ninety big scoring chance

1272
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 1: allowed and two offenses that just flat out suck. I

1273
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 1: mean we have Oh so Souna has created over one

1274
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 1: expected goal twice in their last twelve matches, and it

1275
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 1: was against Real Valadalide and Valencia, and I believe Valenza

1276
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 1: got a red card in that one. And I mean,

1277
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: speaking of athletic Bilbow, they just held them to one

1278
01:02:32,360 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 1: expected goal on Monday, which was just a complete snoozer

1279
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:37,280
Speaker 1: of a match. And I'm thinking this is going to

1280
01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 1: be the exact same type of match. Two teams I

1281
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 1: like to play very direct. It's going to be a big,

1282
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:45,320
Speaker 1: big time stalemate here in Majorca. The only teams they've

1283
01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:47,680
Speaker 1: allowed over one expected goal too in their last twelve

1284
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 1: matches have been Socia Dad, Valencia, Madrid and Gitafe, which

1285
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:57,200
Speaker 1: kind of an outlier there, but anyway, I predicted at

1286
01:02:57,240 --> 01:03:00,400
Speaker 1: minus one ninety eight, so I like the price minus

1287
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 1: one fifty and I'm always here to give the people

1288
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 1: an insanely priced btt S. No in the bottom half

1289
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: the table in Spain, although soon is in the top half.

1290
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 3: That's a great note to end that portion of the

1291
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 3: program on it. Now we get to talk about some

1292
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 3: bigger prices, some longer prices rather than minus one fifty

1293
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 3: both teams to score notes, our favorite all time, our

1294
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 3: favorite underdogs for the weekend.

1295
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:28,760
Speaker 1: It's I think the last one I gave one just

1296
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 1: like it did that.

1297
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 2: It was like minus one seventy and yeah, and it

1298
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 2: was like one nil.

1299
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 3: It was beautiful.

1300
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1301
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 3: Uh, Anthony, who's your favorite underdog this weekend?

1302
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 2: I'm just god it doesn't involve Catafe. That's that was

1303
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 2: what I was expecting him to say when he said

1304
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 2: both teams to score no and an obnoxious price, just

1305
01:03:45,080 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 2: the worst team in Europe. But uh, I like Brighton

1306
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,720
Speaker 2: plusing fifty five. I just think that, you know, I

1307
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:53,520
Speaker 2: think I did Brighton as minder dog when they played

1308
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 2: Arsenal a couple of weeks ago and that ended poorly.

1309
01:03:56,240 --> 01:04:00,000
Speaker 2: But the goals are a good matchup for Liverpool. They've

1310
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 2: cause problems for Liverpool in the past. Liverpool hasn't solving

1311
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:05,080
Speaker 2: their issues. They have injuries. They have injury problems both

1312
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 2: an attack and defense. I mean, we talked at length

1313
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:09,600
Speaker 2: about Brighton, so I don't think we need to keep going.

1314
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 2: But I like them plus two fifty five.

1315
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I like Palace They're plus four to twenty

1316
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 3: five at Stanford Bridge On Sunday. We talked a lot

1317
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 3: about Chelsea's problems right off the top previewing their showdown

1318
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 3: with Fulham banged up, short rest not very good four

1319
01:04:28,000 --> 01:04:31,440
Speaker 3: three and four would draw loss and their last undergrad

1320
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:35,640
Speaker 3: potter eleven matches in the Premier League, twelve goals, four

1321
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 3: ten goals against a minus three point seven expected gold

1322
01:04:39,760 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 3: differential per understat that's mid table numbers. Would a mid

1323
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:48,120
Speaker 3: table team be minus one sixty three against the Crystal Palace?

1324
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:51,160
Speaker 3: I don't think so, So I'll take a shot here

1325
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 3: plus four to twenty five. Patrick Vieira's Eagles. They've let

1326
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:58,680
Speaker 3: me down a lot this season and they'll probably do

1327
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 3: it again. BJ. What do you have?

1328
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 1: You know, Michael, I've been waiting and waiting and waiting

1329
01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 1: for the right opportunity to fade the stupid Lazio team,

1330
01:05:07,320 --> 01:05:09,440
Speaker 1: and I think I found the spot here. So swallow

1331
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 1: plus two ten at home against Lazio. I mean they're

1332
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 1: doing it again. We're at what a plus thirteen actual

1333
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:20,479
Speaker 1: goal differential plus point nine expected goal differential because again

1334
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:23,760
Speaker 1: they're just finishing it at a st insane rate offensively

1335
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 1: but this is the spot here where Lazio is starting

1336
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:30,000
Speaker 1: to get overvalued. Although zero and Mobble is going to

1337
01:05:30,040 --> 01:05:32,200
Speaker 1: be back. He's probably gonna score some banger from outside

1338
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:38,400
Speaker 1: the box. But Swallow to Swallow is in their dreadful form.

1339
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 1: They have lost five of their last six. They have

1340
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 1: conceded close to twelve twelve expected goal or twelve actual

1341
01:05:48,160 --> 01:05:51,360
Speaker 1: goals expected. It's only around eight, so they're due for

1342
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:54,920
Speaker 1: some positive regression. This is just another good spot where

1343
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna fade Lotzio. I only project, actually project

1344
01:05:58,280 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 1: this right around a pick I'm to swallow plays much

1345
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:01,800
Speaker 1: better at home than actually a plus one point eight

1346
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,400
Speaker 1: expect a gold defrontile home, and they've just been terrible

1347
01:06:04,480 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 1: on the road. So to swallow plus two ten against Latsio.

1348
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:15,080
Speaker 3: It's a it's a beautiful parlays. Just Swollo Brighton, feel

1349
01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 3: good about feel good about this one. This is gonna

1350
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:19,439
Speaker 3: be the week. This is going to be the week again.

1351
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 3: Fifty eight to one for one for the underdog money

1352
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 3: line parlay gives you some good bank roll as we

1353
01:06:28,080 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 3: head towards the Australian Open. And I'll say right now

1354
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:33,440
Speaker 3: that Matteo Berrettini at thirty five to one. That's that's

1355
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 3: my my my pick and Tiafo if you can get

1356
01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 3: a triple digit number on him. Let's talk about our

1357
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 3: best bets in the Premier League now, j right back

1358
01:06:44,200 --> 01:06:44,320
Speaker 3: to you.

1359
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:48,160
Speaker 1: Brighton plus half a goal at minus one twenty against Liverpool.

1360
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:51,320
Speaker 1: Liverpool has major problems right now and it starts in

1361
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 1: the midfield. The reason Liverpool hasn't been that great is

1362
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:56,280
Speaker 1: they not be able to run people over the midfield

1363
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 1: like they have in the past. And it comes down

1364
01:06:57,840 --> 01:07:01,640
Speaker 1: to guys like Thiago, Jordan he Fabinho. They've just gotten old.

1365
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:03,960
Speaker 1: They can't cover ground like they used to. And so

1366
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,560
Speaker 1: what happens with Liverpool is that guys like Harvey Elliott

1367
01:07:07,640 --> 01:07:09,240
Speaker 1: are not guys who are gonna make runs into the box.

1368
01:07:09,280 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 1: He's more of a ball carrier, likes to supply the

1369
01:07:11,240 --> 01:07:13,920
Speaker 1: front line. So guys like Theago or Jordan Henderson are

1370
01:07:13,960 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 1: having to make those run into the box once Liverpool

1371
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:18,640
Speaker 1: has possession in the final third. But once they lose

1372
01:07:18,680 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 1: the ball, guys like Virgil van Dyke were the ones

1373
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 1: actually cleaning up a lot of the transition. Well, he's

1374
01:07:23,160 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 1: gonna be out for this match. Brighton is absolutely the

1375
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:27,880
Speaker 1: team you do not want to see if you have

1376
01:07:28,000 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 1: midfield problems, because Deserbi's team can play through the middle,

1377
01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:32,960
Speaker 1: they can play out wide, and they can play right

1378
01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 1: through pressure. They're one of the best teams outside of

1379
01:07:34,960 --> 01:07:37,360
Speaker 1: the Big Six at playing through pressure. They've been running

1380
01:07:37,360 --> 01:07:40,560
Speaker 1: incredibly hot offensively, but they're still creating a ton of

1381
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:43,160
Speaker 1: expected goals and creating a lot of chances, and they'll

1382
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:45,080
Speaker 1: have advantages through the middle of the pitch. They'll have

1383
01:07:45,120 --> 01:07:46,720
Speaker 1: a huge advantage on the left side of the pitch

1384
01:07:46,760 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 1: with Metoma and Sali March, two outstanding ball carriers going

1385
01:07:49,680 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 1: against Alexander Arnold, who's one of the worst defending right

1386
01:07:52,520 --> 01:07:55,120
Speaker 1: backs in the Premier League. This is an outstanding spot

1387
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:57,760
Speaker 1: for Brighton and I really just don't get the price here, Michael.

1388
01:07:58,080 --> 01:08:00,960
Speaker 1: We have Liverpool sitting at plus one hive when Arsenal

1389
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 1: League leaders just went to Brighton a week and a

1390
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:06,000
Speaker 1: half ago and were plus one fifteen. So this is

1391
01:08:06,000 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: an outstanding price, a spot you dream of if you

1392
01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 1: bet the Premier League. I love Brighton plus half a

1393
01:08:11,560 --> 01:08:12,720
Speaker 1: goal at minus one twenty.

1394
01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, my favorite bet is also bright but I like

1395
01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:19,120
Speaker 3: them on the money line plus two forty twenty one

1396
01:08:19,200 --> 01:08:21,800
Speaker 3: goals scored, eighteen goals expect eighty point three expect to

1397
01:08:21,840 --> 01:08:26,559
Speaker 3: goles created for Deservey Seagulls going up against a very

1398
01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:34,559
Speaker 3: very shaky, suspect fraudulent Liverpool defense. It's just a great spot.

1399
01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:37,200
Speaker 3: Like bj just said, this is a beautiful number and

1400
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:40,000
Speaker 3: a beautiful team, a team that has always paid off

1401
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 3: for us. Anthony close out the show, my friend.

1402
01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:45,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go. Brentford and Bournemouth under two and

1403
01:08:45,720 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 2: a half at plus one ten. Bournemouth has been a

1404
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:50,800
Speaker 2: pretty good set piece defense. And that's about all the

1405
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 2: good things you can say about this team. They have

1406
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 2: really struggled. Anytime they've gone up in competition and played

1407
01:08:56,000 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 2: a team in the top half of the table, they

1408
01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 2: have had no attack whatsoever. I think it's gonna continue

1409
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:02,280
Speaker 2: to be a problem. We've saw it against Chelsea, against

1410
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 2: Man United, they have not been good. Now they get

1411
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 2: a Brentford team who's a big favorite on the money line.

1412
01:09:08,040 --> 01:09:10,519
Speaker 2: You don't see Brentford at minus one fifty in this league,

1413
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 2: giving the little market respect they get, and I just

1414
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:15,439
Speaker 2: wonder how good they're going to be. They don't really

1415
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:19,719
Speaker 2: have the passing quality to really break down a defensive

1416
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:22,160
Speaker 2: team in tight spaces. They're very good in transition, very

1417
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:24,280
Speaker 2: good on set pieces, but they don't really profile that

1418
01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 2: well as a favorite here at home, so I think

1419
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:28,240
Speaker 2: they're going to struggle to get margin. They may win

1420
01:09:28,320 --> 01:09:30,479
Speaker 2: the match, but I see this as a one nil,

1421
01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:33,640
Speaker 2: two nil, maybe one one type game where under two

1422
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:36,080
Speaker 2: and a half is clearly undervalued. Tony is a question

1423
01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:39,120
Speaker 2: mark with his injury health status right now and his

1424
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 2: potential suspension looming as well. It could come any day,

1425
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:44,479
Speaker 2: so I like the under here two and a half.

1426
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:47,599
Speaker 3: All right. That does it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1427
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:52,560
Speaker 3: It is a wonderful schedule of matches this weekend in

1428
01:09:52,560 --> 01:09:55,680
Speaker 3: the Premier League, and we hope you enjoy them. You

1429
01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:58,559
Speaker 3: want some money on them, and maybe Everden gets us

1430
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:02,120
Speaker 3: three points. Start charging up the table for Anthony Debundo,

1431
01:10:02,200 --> 01:10:04,680
Speaker 3: for BJ Cunningham, I Michael leave up. Thank you once

1432
01:10:04,680 --> 01:10:07,080
Speaker 3: again to Betrie six five our wonderful sponsors. We'll see

1433
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:07,960
Speaker 3: you again next week.

1434
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:20,040
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1435
01:10:20,120 --> 01:10:22,880
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1436
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:25,960
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred. Gambler