WEBVTT - Top 10 NFL Week 17 Player Prop Picks & Predictions (Ep. 633) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:03.080 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:05.360 your bets. It is me Joey b Joe P's APA, 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:08.719 and this is VP NFL. It's week seventeen. It's time 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:11.520 to talk about the props and I am rested from 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:13.880 the holidays, ready to go. Shout out to my boy 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:17.400 Seth for holding things down on yesterday's program. I'm sure 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:19.919 Terrell was happy not to see me after the butt 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.320 kicking the Baltimore Ravens gave the Steelers last week. That's right, 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:26.040 t that's right, it happened, but it's in the spirit 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.840 of the holidays. I let it go, gentlemen. Last night 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:31.400 we also got a football game, or so I was told. 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:35.120 I was at Madison Square Garden watching WWE with my kids, 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:37.559 so I didn't have to watch it, but Welsh I 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:39.080 heard it was a barn burner of a game. 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:47.080 It was the worst game I've ever seen. The words 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.360 I want to use, we can't use here. 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:51.080 It was bad. 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:54.720 Yeah, it was really really bad to watch. Tough spot 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:59.640 classic Thursday night football, speechless, speechless about what we got 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:00.480 in this year? 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.120 Is it possible maybe the guys just don't want to 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.480 play around the holidays ericson. I mean, everybody wants time 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:06.800 with their friends and families, a little break. Why don't 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:08.759 they just give these guys a holiday bye week. Why 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:10.600 didn't they make a play. Oh it's Christmas Day. Oh 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:12.319 it's a day after Christmas. Everyone's got to play. 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:12.840 No, they don't. 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:15.840 They really don't have to play on Christmas Day. And 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:17.760 I don't even know how many people were sitting around 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.000 watching all those games, to be honest, not like Thanksgiving, 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:22.760 there's gifts, there's all these other things going on at 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:26.360 Christmas time. The holiday games were kind of blowouts too. 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:29.039 On Christmas Day. What do you make of it? As 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:32.520 the NFL continues to put games every single moment of 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:34.320 our lives on Well. 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:35.240 The thing you have to keep in mind is with 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.200 all these holiday games, like, it's all teams playing on 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:39.639 short weeks, right, so it's harder for them to prepare. 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:42.199 And that's why the better teams come out on top 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.959 by a lot, because they're more prepared than the teams 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:46.800 that are inferior, and that's why they get blown out. 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:48.800 So yeah, I mean that's just gonna I mean, that's 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.400 why Thursday night games, right, are usually bad for the 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.040 most part, like no one's gonna surprise Seahawks Bears. Oh 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.480 six to three, Yeah, that smells like a Thursday night game. Again, 0:01:57.640 --> 0:01:59.880 well said was bad from my perspective, is great because 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:02.000 I four and out with my picks, get first half spread, 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.120 the Bears can't score on the first half nailed it. 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.680 DJ Moore over five and a half catches nailed it. 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.760 Gino Smith under his past attempts nailed it. So and 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.120 DeAndre Swift to get that keeps on giving the lock 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:14.240 of the week. There's a night football under his rushing yards. 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.639 So it was a I enjoyed the game, to be honest. 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.120 Can you bet how many guys the times the guy 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:22.639 gets sacked, because if you can give me five and 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:25.880 a half over, I'm taking Caleb in Week eighteen, he's 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:29.040 gonna get annihilated. And if I could bet on body 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.519 language too, like most shrugs in a game, we would 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.000 go probably eleven and a half would be the line 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:38.480 of over under for Caleb Williams first half. We're gonna 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:42.720 cash that because it'll be like, oh. 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:44.880 Man, it's crazy. 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:49.760 That was a horrible, horrible, horrible post Christmas game. But 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:51.880 that's what you get with Thursday at football games, and 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:54.359 you know what, we should have known better than even 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.120 betting on it, unless you're betting the unders. 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:57.920 Yeah. Well, the funny thing is all the home teams. 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:00.000 You would think a home field advantage in short weeks, 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:01.519 all that stuff. Now, I think you're right. Does the 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:03.360 better teams win? But we're gonna try to win this 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.440 week in props and got some touchdown calls later on 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.919 the show for you two. So without further ado, download 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:10.880 the betting pros apps. Start betting smarter, not harder. We 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:13.680 still got college football playoffs going, We've still got NFL 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.400 playoffs around the corner, and some more regular season games 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:19.639 two weeks left. So let's start with Jamison Williams here, 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.680 because you've got a feeling about an over on the 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.720 receiving yards fifty three and a half Welsh, let's talk 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:25.120 about it. 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.600 Well, the Lions are going to make the forty nine 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:31.440 ers look like the Bears on Thursday ninth Football. They're 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:35.040 gonna win by thirty forty points. They're not going to 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:38.120 rest anybody. The forty nine ers are a disaster, and 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.760 it's going to center around a big play from Jamison Williams. 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.440 Jamison Williams at fifty three point five is his receiving 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.280 yard marker. He is four or five games he has 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.520 had seven or more targets. He has hit this yard 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:53.400 prop in four of his last six games. Many projections 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.720 already got him at the sixty yard marker, So fifty 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:58.440 nine and a half is where I've seen it right 0:03:58.480 --> 0:03:59.280 around sixty. 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:00.400 It's gonna be big play. 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.119 And the funny thing is is the forty nine ers 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:06.000 they don't rank super high as far as like receiving 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.440 yards given up, but this is going to be a 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.120 primetime game where they are going to get annihilated. 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:13.280 They're going to get annihilated. 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:15.480 We know Perdy plays bad at home, not saying that 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.080 Juwan Jennings and stuff can't put a play in here. 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:20.400 You can throw on the Lions at the end of 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:22.720 the day, So that might put a little wrinkle in 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.960 I'm ladder betting the spread for the Lions up to 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:27.840 nine and a half. I've already done it. I've already 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:29.839 done some versions of it, so that might put a 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.160 roll into it. But Jameson Williams had a bunch of 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:35.480 big targets. He's a huge yack guy, makes big plays. 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.040 A manra is going to stay on the inside. This 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.640 team is banged up. Dray Greenlaw he's shut down for 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:42.719 the season. Don't be surprised if you get a couple 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:45.080 more shutdowns from the forty nine ers. They're eliminated. They're 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:47.800 not playing for anything. Jamison Williams is going to catch 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.440 one around right around the middle. He's going to turn 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.880 it up field, make a big play. Fifty three point 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:57.599 five might hit on one play, I believe. Also looking 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:01.560 at this, I believe he has had had five plays 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.360 of fifty yards or more this season. Or maybe I'm 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:06.880 thinking of someone else that's on my betting card here, 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.159 but big plays for Jamison Williams going to have another 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:10.560 big one. 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:12.640 Oh He's had some big ones this year for sure, 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.240 and that's been his MO. So I like this one. 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:17.440 Betting the over on the longest reception is always a 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:20.960 good one too. Let's talk about the change of quarterback 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.440 in Tennessee because Mason Rudolph took over and hit both 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.719 of the NWY and Calvin Riley touched on calls last 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.159 week because of it. But there's another guy that benefits 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:34.000 from having Mason Rudolph under center. Who is it? Andrew Erickson. 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.640 So I'm rolling with chigakon Quo as my receiver tight 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:39.440 end to go over his receiving arts prop for the 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.039 Tennessee Titan. So it's listed over thirty seven and a half. 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:43.640 So this was a prop I was on. It wasn't 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:45.200 on the show last week. I did go three and 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:47.520 two on the show last week. Depends on the Ramandra 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:49.800 Stevenson number. You got closed at thirteen and a half. 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:51.800 He hit thirteen receiving yards, but on the show it 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:53.760 was twelve and a half, so I'm taking that as 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:55.320 a hit for MESA three and two. 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:57.360 But I did like the Chicka Congo play last week. 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.599 It was lower. Last week it's been moved up almost 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:00.600 nine yards. 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:02.800 I don't care. It's still too low. I mean, he 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.320 had eighty one receiving yards last week. He is Mason 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:07.760 Rudolph's number one target. In the last two weeks, it 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.200 hasn't been Calvin Ridley, and I like the matchup against 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:12.800 the Jacksonville Jaguars. Though the third most touchdowns the Titands 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.480 this season, They've been one of these tight end funnel defenses. 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:18.680 So Mason Rudolph has looked pretty good. I mean, at 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:19.640 least he's competent. 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:22.279 He's not. Will Levis like that's the thing, Like, well, 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.360 I just have so many low bar in all fairs, 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:26.760 exactly low bar. But it is the holiday season. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.040 His last name is Rudolph, so why not back him 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:30.960 here in this spot here, So I just think it's 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:33.000 a very low number here again, eighty one. 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:37.200 Receiver on the app Like seasonal betting based upon names. 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:38.800 I feel like that's one of the betting systems. Right, 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:40.440 guys named Rudolf in the month of the center. 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:44.279 Definitely remember writing streaming tight end articles about Kyle Rudolph 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:46.960 like around this time of year, like constantly like. 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:48.839 Oh, the red Zone rain deer, Kyle Rudolph. 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:50.920 Here we go, red zone Reindeer. 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:53.360 Are there any other Christmas based player names. 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.240 I'm sure there are not named Rudolphila. 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.200 Williams did his best Grinch impression last night. 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:02.880 That's true. That's true. Yeah, regardless his contract ruth three 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:06.120 sizes anyway, so it doesn't matter. Let's talk about Mike Evans, 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:09.200 a guy who is certainly trying to finish the season 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:11.200 with a bang. There's no doubt about that. The receptions 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:13.880 number is five and a half in Welsh. Let's talk 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:15.960 about you going over or under that number. 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:17.840 Now we're going to go over. And by the way, 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.880 keeping with the accountability plays, it was also three and 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:23.520 two last week. Hit the reception parlay to throw out 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.320 to everybody, but fell apart. 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:26.720 With the two. 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.280 When we didn't hit, guys got injured. So I have 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:31.240 this bad luck right now. If I'm not going to 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:32.720 hit a prop, I'm going to hurt a player, and 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.000 hopefully it's not going to be Mike, because Mike is 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:38.760 playing for some stuff. He had eight his last game 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:43.240 receptions versus the Carolina Panthers. The number is five point 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.440 five this week from Mike Evans. He has had eight 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.800 or more targets in three of his last four games. 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:51.920 And whether you like it or not, there's an incentive 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:54.440 narrative that's been out there. There's obviously the one thousand 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:57.280 yard season that he wants to hit, but some people 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.440 have put together you can find it out online. From 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:03.160 an incentive base standpoint, he needs thirteen receptions. He needs, 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:06.120 you know, whatever the yard marker is, it's like one 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:08.440 hundred and thirty or one hundred and fifty or something 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.040 like that, and he needs a touchdown. So one touchdown 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.320 thirteen receptions and quite a bit more yards to get 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.240 to that thousand, and that is a three million dollar bonus, 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:20.080 by the way, So receptions, yards, and touchdown equate to 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:23.360 a really big bonus on the incentive side. So I 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:25.800 throw that all out to you to say that Baker 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.280 Mayfield has also been out there talking about these. He's like, 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:30.440 you know, I'm paying attention to it. For Mike Kevins, 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:32.800 I'm pretty sure if there's a three million dollar bonus 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:35.920 that's in play here, that's kind of wonky stuff, sure, 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:37.240 but it's Carolina Panthers. 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:39.199 He's hit this before. He's got to have a big 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.720 reception game to be in toe with it into week eighteen. 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.720 So that's why I'm also hitting the reception marker because 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:46.480 the yards are high. 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:47.240 It's eighty one. 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.120 He does need to hit that because again I'm forgetting 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:51.520 what the yards are. I'd have to go look for it, 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.000 but it's a high number on the eighty one, and 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:55.640 it's probably going to move up to like eighty three 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.000 by the time we lock into games. But it's a 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:01.400 high receiving yard total. Going to get to that total, 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:04.360 let me play six receptions, which he did against this 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:07.480 team before and there's an incentive based into it. So 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:10.959 five point five over receptions for Mike Evans, that's a 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:11.640 play that I like. 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:14.400 All right, let's talk about Cooper Rush. The Dallas Cowboys 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:16.520 are going to go into Philadelphia this week, and the 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:19.880 number is pretty low here, and it's only one ninety 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:22.920 four and a half for the passing total. Now, he's 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:27.240 actually hit this every week since Week eleven except one, ironically, 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:29.520 of all weeks against the Cincinnati Bengals, one where you 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.959 think you would smash this. So Eric said, I know 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.800 the Eagles secondary has played very well this year, but 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:36.640 it is a low number. Do you struggle with the 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:38.640 under here because I know you're on that this week. 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.680 No, I don't struggle with it because one of his 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:43.240 other games that he didn't hit it was against the 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:46.880 Eagles and he threw for forty five yards. 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:49.000 And Cede Lamb. I guess that's the big ceedee. 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.679 Lamb's like, it's all matchups, base like, look at who 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.680 Cooper Rush has faced when he's been hitting the overs. Oh, 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:58.720 the Buccaneers, bad defense, Panthers bad defense. Again, you mentioned 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:00.960 the Bengals. He didn't even get it against the Cincinnati Bengals. 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:05.439 Giants commanders text like this is all about the matchup, 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:06.920 the fact that Ceedee Lamb is not playing, and the 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:08.560 fact that Jalen Hurts is probably not gonna play. This 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:10.439 game is gonna scream towards. There's not gonna be a 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:12.079 lot of points in this game, Like, this is a 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:13.439 game where I think it's going to be known. There's 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.320 a reason why the total is I think at forty 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:18.120 and a half points, probably going down more once Hurts 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:20.880 is are immediately ruled out. So if the Eagles want 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:22.320 to win this game, it's going to come on the 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:24.120 back of their defense. So I think they're really going 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:26.840 to put the clamps down on this Dallas Cowboys offense. 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.400 And this is where we've seen Cooper Rush struggle before 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:31.520 in the past. Now you're playing on the road in 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:35.319 Philadelphia without Ceedee Lamb. I don't Thinkop Rush is coming 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:37.920 anywhere near two hundred passing yards. So I'm taking the 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:39.600 under here at one hundred ninety four and a half 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:41.200 passing arts for Cooper Rush. 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:43.240 All right, let's move on to the next one here, 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.720 let's talk about Breeze Hall as the Jets try to 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:49.040 finish up their season. Ticketmaster last couple of weeks, by 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:52.480 the way, just keeps on sending me messages Jets tickets available, 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.319 Giants stickts available. Yeah, I get it. I know why 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.520 they're available. I don't want to go just because they 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:00.000 live in this region. So stop sending me those messages, please, 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:03.240 Pa Brisol. Let's talk about it, because you guys are 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:04.880 both in on the same thing here, which is the 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.800 receiving yards prop. The numbers twenty one and a half 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:10.160 on the over Welsh. Let's start with you on this 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:12.559 one too. Why is this prop so appealing to you 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:14.760 this week in the matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Is 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:15.640 it just a matter of game. 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:18.079 Script as a squad This is a squad ride, by 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:20.440 the way, Yeah, I mean I think it's twofold. 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:21.400 It's the Bills. 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.880 First off, Bills have given up the most receiving yards 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.840 to running backs on the season, so that would be 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:30.120 your number one reason. It's like over seven hundred yards 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:34.960 receiving to RB's. Hall had nineteen touches last week, five 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:37.760 of which were receptions where he went over thirty eight yards. 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.560 Three of his last five games he has hit this 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.720 and the one miss was twenty one yards, So you 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.000 know there was that worry about him being shut down. 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:47.439 Then he publicly came out and said, hey, if the 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.600 veterans can play, I can go. They got him back involved. 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:52.200 That was the big key, was just getting him back. 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:53.600 By the way, the one if you don't count the 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:56.040 twenty one yard one, the other one was when he 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.400 just did like nine touches or ten touches when he 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:01.440 first came back. You got the touches back. You've got 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:03.760 a defense where you literally can do this. You can 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:07.960 as a running back mass get yards and the receiving side, 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:09.800 and that's what Bruce Haall does. And I think, you know, 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:11.559 you might have some of the younger guys going between 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.000 the tackles, but this is all just about touches and 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.000 the script against the Buffalo Bills. Twenty one point five 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.839 is a wildly low number for Bresall. Projections have him 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.480 over thirty right now. The only thing that takes me 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.079 out of this is if he were to come out 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:25.880 of the game and not get a full workload. But 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:27.679 he had nineteen touches last week, so I feel really 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:29.760 good about that. And I would guess for the most 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.520 part that's why we're both on this one. Ericson because 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:33.920 it just kind of screams. 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:35.880 Eric's in your thoughts on the twenty one and a half. 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:37.400 Yeah, I mean that's why I put it on here 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:39.439 because I wasn't trying to just pick another prop that 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.439 probably was gonna miss, Like if you're gonna make one 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:43.200 prop like it would be the brisaw one for me. 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:46.240 As we're talking through these top props for this week, 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:48.520 I think the thing that's cool about the prop at 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.760 Chichi in like the analyzer, what you can do is 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:53.719 you can filter whether the team is a favorite or 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:57.120 an underdog, so you're kind of considering taking into what 0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.240 can the game script be. So it's funny because the 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.760 Jets have barely been underdogs all year long, which is 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.200 commical based on their record because they've just been terrible. 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.120 But they are underdogs in this spot playing on the 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:10.600 road against Buffalo, and this is when bris Hall is 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:12.600 more involved in the passing game. So he's averaged over 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:14.920 thirty six receiving arts per game where it just have 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:18.240 been underdogs this season and in his career he's ten 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:20.520 and three towards the over on his receiving arts prop 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.560 when they're underdogs. So yes, they're not going to have 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:25.040 the opportunity to feed Breese. 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:25.320 Haul the ball. 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:27.040 Oh, let's try to run out the clock. No, like 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:29.679 they're going to be throwing most likely in this spot. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:31.480 The Bills have been giving up to running backs all 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.520 year long in the passing game, and he kind of 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.640 took over that backfield last week after coming in a 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:38.760 little bit slower right when he was coming back from 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.120 his injuries. So yeah, I love Breesaw on the spot 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.520 and his receivers. DeVante's a little bit banged up dealing 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.360 with the hip injury, Garrett Wilson is he's looking like 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:48.439 he might be checked out, but breeseall looks like he's 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:50.600 trying to play and put up some numbers. So again, 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:52.600 I got Brisaw in a couple of Fantasy championships. I 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.280 need him to get those receiving yards. So I'm looking 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.120 forward to getting some points with the Bresall this week. 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:59.199 I also want to point out this is the second 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:03.280 squad ride of the year. First squad ride we cashed, 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.400 so I just want to throw this out the official 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.360 squad ride meter. This is number two on the line 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.000 and we I will say the other one was pretty ugly. 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:15.120 It was Jaalen Wattle. Well, we smashed it. We smashed it. 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:16.959 It is funny that it was Wattle because like Wattle 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.760 in Bresaw were probably my favorite like picks in like 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.400 the first and second rounds of fantasy drafts. 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:23.640 And oh they were values there and they were both. 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:25.400 They did not pan out either of them. 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:28.040 Turns out they were values for a reason. But who knew? 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:30.480 Who knew twenty twenty four would kick us in the 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.240 pants quite the way it did on certain players. But 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:36.040 let's talk about a match up here between the Denver 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.840 Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals. This is one that I've invested 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:41.360 in already and I want our of Courtland something here 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:44.920 because I did mention earlier too talking about the secondary 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:47.000 struggling all year with Cincinnati. This is one that keeps 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.920 bearing fruit pretty much every single week. And Suton has 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.320 a very achievable number. I think that's the best way 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:54.760 to put it here, sixty three and a half of 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:57.560 the receiving yards. And to me, this is one of 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.720 the safer bets on this week seventeen board. Do you agree? 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.600 Yeah, one hundred percent. It's a very good number. Only 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:05.320 thing it would be a slight worries we're doing. This 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.160 is there, there's a little bit of a weather concern. 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:09.600 Nothing crazy, but yeah, you just see rain and stuff 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.080 like that. It messed up the Thursday night. I mean, 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:14.040 it can go either way. People say, like, you know, 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.360 don't bet against the rain, but we've also seen some 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:18.200 messy games when there is a little bit of that. 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.200 So there's a little bit floating out there. But back 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.520 to your point, it's a very achievable number. Sixty three 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.760 point five. He's had eight or more targets in seven 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.760 of his last eight games, Courtland Sutton has and he 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.840 has hit this total in six of his last eight. 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.440 And just to throw this back to you, if you're 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.560 playing the incentive market, let's also talk about a veteran 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.520 wide receiver with a rookie quarterback who's like, hey, this 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.960 is what I need to hit half a million dollars. 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.720 He has to average seventy yards per game over the 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:49.960 last two games of the season and he'll hit a 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.840 half a million dollar marker. So even a little bit 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.600 more incentive if you want to throw that out here, whatever, 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:56.960 you know, they can actually do for that. 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:58.880 But I have absolutely players. 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:00.880 And a guy like Courtland's is going to pay attention 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:03.680 to that. While it's a very achievable number, so projections 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.440 are right in marker here. He's the number one target 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:08.920 for bow Knicks. Also, this isn't even mentioning just the 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.720 Bengals in general from a fantasy perspective. 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:14.280 Their defense stinks, so you're going to be able to throw. 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.400 The only thing that takes you off is the Green 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:19.280 Bay Packer nests that they do to the offense, or 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.480 they'll rotate wide receivers. But luckily, unlike the Packers, Courtland 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:23.760 Sutton just doesn't come off the field. 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:25.400 They'll just rotate the rest of the guys. 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:28.240 So I feel really good about this against a really 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:32.200 garbage defense and with bow Knicks and Courtland Sutton has 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.160 been kind of smashing this so it's one of my 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.920 favorite briessall probably the number one this week, but I really. 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:37.560 Like this bet. 0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.320 Speaking of bow Knicks, by the way, to nineteen and 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:42.000 a half is the rushing yards prop for him. He's 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.600 hit this ford of his last five games, and ericson 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:46.480