Speaker 1: Hey everybody. So a few weeks ago we did a
Speaker 1: show with ce Me about the policies put in place
Speaker 1: to accelerate e V adoption in China. The title was
Speaker 1: Tesla Crushing it in Car Captain Trade Check it out.
Speaker 1: In that episode I mentioned it was a trailer, a
Speaker 1: sort of preview for what we'd do on BNF's flags
Speaker 1: A report on transport, the Electric Vehicle Outlook, or EVO.
Speaker 1: As I said then, the report looks at how electrification,
Speaker 1: shared mobility, and autonomous driving impact road transport from now
Speaker 1: out to twenty fifty. The reports out and the time
Speaker 1: has come. This week we're lucky to be joined by
Speaker 1: the lead author of EVO and head of Transport for BNF,
Speaker 1: Colin mccarricker. I won't be labor the intro too much longer.
Speaker 1: I just want to say, come for the findings, stay
Speaker 1: for collins insightful opinions and observations. If you follow him
Speaker 1: on Twitter you'll know what I mean. He has a
Speaker 1: way of cutting right to what really matters in a
Speaker 1: way that's easy to follow. Being if you just can
Speaker 1: get the electric Vehicle out one on BNF, go on
Speaker 1: the Bloomber terminal and BNF dot com as a reminder
Speaker 1: of BENF does not provide investment strategy advice, and you
Speaker 1: can hear the full disclaimer at the end of the show.
Speaker 1: I'm Mark Taylor and you're listening to switch down to
Speaker 1: BENF podcast. Colin, thanks for joining. Good to be here. Mark.
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure to join you on the program. It's
Speaker 1: always wonderful to have you on, Colin. We missed our
Speaker 1: January ten Things to Watch this this year, and we'll
Speaker 1: make up for it here. We will. We'll have a
Speaker 1: good chat. I'm looking forward to it. Mark. So back
Speaker 1: when I was an analyst and I was editing, you know,
Speaker 1: my team's work and and the like, I always gave
Speaker 1: the suggestion when I was editing to avoid what I
Speaker 1: would call since the Dawn of Time statements you know,
Speaker 1: and often begin with something like that. It was kind
Speaker 1: of off putting, in a little bit too big for
Speaker 1: the reports we were writing. But in Evil the Electric
Speaker 1: Vehicle Outlook, you rightly start with quote mobility is at
Speaker 1: the core of modern civilization and the way people in
Speaker 1: goods move impacts many aspects of life. So definitely that's true.
Speaker 1: This report is huge and far reaching. Can you tell
Speaker 1: us a bit about it and the objectives behind it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: happy too, And I like the leading of of that
Speaker 1: opening line, and I did think about whether we shouldn't
Speaker 1: fluid that, but I do think it's important when you're
Speaker 1: talking about road transport just to recognize how personal it is. Right,
Speaker 1: the power system isn't that personal for a lot of people.
Speaker 1: They just want the lights to come on and and
Speaker 1: it's as long as that happens there, okay, And as
Speaker 1: long as it's not too expensive, it's okay. Mobility is
Speaker 1: personal in a way that most other areas of the
Speaker 1: energy transition and things that that being NEF works on
Speaker 1: sometimes are not. So what is our electric vehicle outlook?
Speaker 1: The kind of high level summary is that this is
Speaker 1: our outlook for all of road transport, looking at how
Speaker 1: people and goods move from now all the way out
Speaker 1: to and then this year we actually extended it out
Speaker 1: to to try and look a little bit at net
Speaker 1: zero scenarios and what that means. And we can talk
Speaker 1: about that in a bit, but that's kind of the
Speaker 1: high level the high level picture. Despite the name, it's
Speaker 1: not just an outlook for electric vehicles. It's an outlook
Speaker 1: for everything to do with how people and goods move
Speaker 1: on on roads around the world in different countries, and
Speaker 1: what is the main objective with it. One of the
Speaker 1: things we're trying to do is really investigate different scenarios
Speaker 1: for how this might all play out, but also stitched
Speaker 1: together a picture that draws in the breadth of research
Speaker 1: that b an e F does. So it's we have
Speaker 1: a team that's called the Electric Vehicle Team. This isn't
Speaker 1: just the output of that team. It's the output of
Speaker 1: that team, plus our intelligent Mobility team, plus the oil team,
Speaker 1: plus the energy storage and batteries team, plus the metals
Speaker 1: and mining team. So a lot of what we're trying
Speaker 1: to do is present an integrated house view from Bloomberg
Speaker 1: an EF about different possibilities for how how road transport
Speaker 1: might might evolve. And this is actually the sixth iteration
Speaker 1: we've done of this report. We started it back in
Speaker 1: and really back then it was only oil companies kind
Speaker 1: of commenting on the future of road transport, and in
Speaker 1: our view, they were dramatically downplaying the changes that were
Speaker 1: afoot that we were seeing on improvements in lithium ion
Speaker 1: batteries and rapid drops in cost. And even though those
Speaker 1: early stages, surging demand and real real consumer interest and
Speaker 1: in electric vehicles. So at that point we thought, look,
Speaker 1: there needs to be an independent voice digging into the
Speaker 1: long term outlook for road transport and playing out what
Speaker 1: it means across all these different areas that that we
Speaker 1: were looking at, And that's kind of how the project
Speaker 1: was was born, and it's evolved a lot since then.
Speaker 1: Each year we're adding new segments. Each each year we're
Speaker 1: adding new countries, we're looking at different impacts. So it
Speaker 1: keeps evolving because we need to stay on top of
Speaker 1: what types of questions are clients are asking us and
Speaker 1: what types of things need answers. There's some things that
Speaker 1: we know more about than we need five or six
Speaker 1: years about, and others that are that are kind of
Speaker 1: still unknowns. So it's really about kind of tying all
Speaker 1: that stuff together, having an independent voice, and then playing
Speaker 1: that out in across different across different areas. What were
Speaker 1: you trying to answer this year that's new that you
Speaker 1: weren't trying to answer in previous years. The big one
Speaker 1: this year is our our net zero scenarios. So generally
Speaker 1: what we've had is kind of our I won't call
Speaker 1: it a base case view, because in economic modeling circles
Speaker 1: and forecasting circles, base case is kind of this thing
Speaker 1: people don't like to say. We call it our economic
Speaker 1: transition scenario, which assumes no new policies are implemented. It's
Speaker 1: a market lad transition. That's what we've generally done in
Speaker 1: the past, sort of a techno economic analysis of adoption
Speaker 1: potential in different segments. So the big difference this year
Speaker 1: is we did a net zero scenario where we said, okay,
Speaker 1: what do you have to do to get road transport
Speaker 1: direct road transport emissions all the way to zero by
Speaker 1: twenty fifty And it's important to note there that that's
Speaker 1: direct tail pipe emissions. There are still possible upstream emissions
Speaker 1: from generating electricity and and potentially generating hydrogen. Those are
Speaker 1: covered in other areas of NF long term forecasting work.
Speaker 1: So long term out looks like our New Energy or
Speaker 1: New Energy outlook. So that's the big change this year
Speaker 1: is to sort of say, let's do a bit more
Speaker 1: of an exercise in working backwards to say what speed
Speaker 1: do different segments have to go at, what has to
Speaker 1: happen over the next five years, ten years, twenty years,
Speaker 1: thirty years to stay on track for this net zero
Speaker 1: scenario by and then look at policy or sorry by
Speaker 1: and then look at policy recommendations that can help get
Speaker 1: you closer to that. So before we get into those
Speaker 1: scenarios a bit more and into the results of the report,
Speaker 1: let's get into the how a little bit more. Thinking back,
Speaker 1: one of my favorite episodes we've done actually was with
Speaker 1: Ian Berryman and it was called Modeling the Energy Future, Ants,
Speaker 1: Birds and Doctor Strange, And in that episode we just
Speaker 1: talked about the only thing we talked about was his
Speaker 1: approach to modeling Energy Forecast Model NEPHEM, the model that
Speaker 1: powers the New Energy Outlook. So I know EVO is
Speaker 1: a similarly complex task that you just mentioned with all
Speaker 1: these teams collaborating and trying to get a coherent view
Speaker 1: on something on the road Transport future. Can you tell
Speaker 1: us a bit more about the approach and how you
Speaker 1: actually got this thing done. One of the big things
Speaker 1: we have to do is kind of start early. So
Speaker 1: we we kind of start at the end of the
Speaker 1: previous year saying what are all the things that we
Speaker 1: want to include in it, and then work for a
Speaker 1: big chunk of the first four or five six months
Speaker 1: of one on it and to put it all together.
Speaker 1: So there's there's definitely an element of planning and thinking
Speaker 1: ahead about what you're gonna do. The summary is that
Speaker 1: it's actually slightly different what we do depending on each segment.
Speaker 1: So some segments have a very different architecture of the
Speaker 1: way you model uptaking them. For example, when we're looking
Speaker 1: at commercial vehicle it's really driven by total cost of
Speaker 1: ownership of different competing drivetrain technologies. When we're modeling passenger vehicles,
Speaker 1: it's much more driven by upfront prices and where did
Speaker 1: those get to. But the one common theme that we
Speaker 1: have across all of what we do is that we
Speaker 1: actually start with again come back coming back to what
Speaker 1: we open with, how do people in goods move? So
Speaker 1: when when we try and forecast or do our outlooks
Speaker 1: for the amount of vehicles that are going to be sold,
Speaker 1: we actually start with kilometers of mobility how much do
Speaker 1: people literally how much do people move around in a
Speaker 1: different country, and freight time kilometers for how much goods
Speaker 1: move around, And then we look at all the factors
Speaker 1: that impact that over time. UH and those can be
Speaker 1: some things that have been consistent or throughout the last
Speaker 1: twenty years or other things that that are just starting
Speaker 1: to come in. So something like e commerce changes the
Speaker 1: distribution of kilometers of freight between whether they're heavier trucks
Speaker 1: or lighter trucks, you might get more last mild delivery
Speaker 1: going on, and that you just start to see that
Speaker 1: in the data. So basically with with starting with kilometers,
Speaker 1: it gives us a really good baseline for this is
Speaker 1: how people in goods move, and then from there we
Speaker 1: determine how many vehicles you need in order to satisfy
Speaker 1: that demand for mobility for people and goods, and then
Speaker 1: from fleet we get to sales. So a lot of
Speaker 1: the and I think that's kind of something a bit
Speaker 1: different about the way we approach it, is that a
Speaker 1: lot of these a lot of the other exercise we've
Speaker 1: seen generally think of sales as just sales, but but
Speaker 1: people don't buy a car just to have a car.
Speaker 1: It's it's to serve a purpose and that purpose is mobility.
Speaker 1: So we kind of start with mobility and then work
Speaker 1: our way down to sales, and then within sales in
Speaker 1: each country, and each year we're creating an adoption outlook
Speaker 1: for different drive trains. So the competing mix of different
Speaker 1: drive trains can be is quite different between different segments.
Speaker 1: So in trucks you might have C and G playing
Speaker 1: a role, compressed natural gas playing a role, whereas in
Speaker 1: the passenger cars it's really much more about um internal combustion, hybrid,
Speaker 1: plug in hybrid, battery electric and maybe a bit a
Speaker 1: few will sell that. We're a bit pessimistic on that.
Speaker 1: So in each year, in each country, in each segment,
Speaker 1: we're building a drive train outlook, and that factors in
Speaker 1: all these different things around economics, but also other factors,
Speaker 1: and there's a lot about the way we kind of
Speaker 1: tie that all together in the long term outlook part.
Speaker 1: And and again the exact mechanics differ a bit depending
Speaker 1: on the segment you're looking at. So it actually does
Speaker 1: sound a bit like power that you start with demand, right,
Speaker 1: you know, in power, you'd start with demand as well,
Speaker 1: and then you build some power plants to meet that
Speaker 1: demand sales or drive trains, and then you start selling megawatts, right,
Speaker 1: so you get individual unit sales. I guess one of
Speaker 1: the things that was kind of, to be honest, controversial
Speaker 1: when we started doing this was that you could use
Speaker 1: consumer adoption modeling trends to actually forecast what was going
Speaker 1: to happen. When we started doing it in twenty six
Speaker 1: going and presenting a vast diffusion curve saying look it
Speaker 1: is going to follow and ask curve that was quite
Speaker 1: We've got a lot of skeptical looks at the time.
Speaker 1: Now everyone kind of accepts that, accepts that, at least
Speaker 1: on the passenger vehicle side, this probably will be a
Speaker 1: tech knowledge adoption story, and it's just people debate over
Speaker 1: which speed and in which segments and how fast it
Speaker 1: goes in which country, but that that that that changeover
Speaker 1: is coming. So when we look at that part, we
Speaker 1: try and say, okay, here's here's what's happened in places
Speaker 1: where adoption has gone quickly, and here's the parameters that
Speaker 1: lead to that. And then we look at how that
Speaker 1: might play out in other countries, and then we add
Speaker 1: some kind of gating factors, and these are sometimes controversial.
Speaker 1: So one of the things we do, for example, is
Speaker 1: when we're again in the passenger vehicle segment, we have
Speaker 1: a higher faster adoption rate for people who live in
Speaker 1: single detached homes than in people who live in high
Speaker 1: rise multi dwelling units. Because we think people who have
Speaker 1: easy access to home charging infrastructure will probably go electric faster.
Speaker 1: Now that it might not be the case. A government
Speaker 1: may build its way out of that constraint and just
Speaker 1: blanket a country and chargers, and then the adoption rate
Speaker 1: might be the same. But those are some of the
Speaker 1: things that we can play around within our model and
Speaker 1: say do we think that's a thing, that we think
Speaker 1: that's not a thing. I think it's a thing. I mean,
Speaker 1: I am I'm living proof. Last year I bought a
Speaker 1: car and I didn't buy one because I can't get
Speaker 1: a you know, I live in a row house on
Speaker 1: a on a London street, right, so I don't have
Speaker 1: a charging option. And the deal was that the next
Speaker 1: car we get will be an electric one because the
Speaker 1: assumption is that there will be a charging network by then, hopefully.
Speaker 1: I'm sure that's the calculus for a lot of people. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I think we're just getting to that point where,
Speaker 1: I mean, you have more conversations about this with people, right,
Speaker 1: that's a double edged sword. If you've been working on
Speaker 1: this stuff for a decade, it means everybody wants to
Speaker 1: chat about it, but it also means that you end
Speaker 1: up talking about your work a lot at dinner, which
Speaker 1: which maybe isn't a good thing. As you said, it
Speaker 1: matters to everybody, right, So even if somebody is not
Speaker 1: necessarily interested in the S curve, they're interested in their
Speaker 1: mode of transportation. And then I guess whether that's even
Speaker 1: public transportation two wheelers, cars, trucks, you, I mean, you
Speaker 1: put all of it in. There. Is there different curves
Speaker 1: for different types of technologies that you're seeing, Yeah, there is,
Speaker 1: and and so for example, plug in hybrids in the
Speaker 1: in the passenger vehicle segment, more and more they look
Speaker 1: like a compliance strategy primarily by automakers to meet tightening
Speaker 1: fuel economy regulations. And that's really why they've surged in Europe.
Speaker 1: There about over half of all the plug in vehicle
Speaker 1: sales in Europe right now are are our plug in hybrids.
Speaker 1: The other half better electrics, of course, and that's really
Speaker 1: because Europe tightened the screws on on the CEO two
Speaker 1: regulations for cars this year or last year rather, and
Speaker 1: it's a bit more again this year, and that has
Speaker 1: really mend automakers who are skeptical of fully electric technology
Speaker 1: or who don't have their platforms fully ready to go
Speaker 1: are pushing a lot of plug in hybrids into the market,
Speaker 1: but the dynamics of that are are kind of much
Speaker 1: more predictable based on policy than they are or earth. Sorry,
Speaker 1: the uptake of that technology is much more predicated on
Speaker 1: on policy than it is on other sort of more
Speaker 1: organic consumer demand factors. And that's that's kind of evident
Speaker 1: in the data. So you don't get the same kind
Speaker 1: of s curve for for plug in hybrids as you
Speaker 1: do for better electrics. One, because they never get cheaper,
Speaker 1: They never get cheaper on and upfront basis than comparable
Speaker 1: internal combustion engine vehicles because they still have a combustion
Speaker 1: engine on board. And in our model, which is looking
Speaker 1: for the kind of cheapest path to do that, it
Speaker 1: doesn't build a lot of those beyond what is required
Speaker 1: by current compliance with with existing policies. So that's kind
Speaker 1: of an example of a technology that adoption is going up,
Speaker 1: but it's not going up. It's we don't think it's
Speaker 1: going up on the same kind of ask curve that
Speaker 1: you're going to get with fully electric vehicles. Makes sense, Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I mean they just don't seem very interesting, right,
Speaker 1: Like they don't seem like a big enough change to
Speaker 1: really be all that enticing apart from a policy measure
Speaker 1: or a policy incentive. That's just me speaking, And I
Speaker 1: think for some consumers they are actually a good choice
Speaker 1: if with the right needs. Maybe you just only want
Speaker 1: to go on the odd long trip out out of
Speaker 1: the weekend on the weekend, and and they're good fit
Speaker 1: in that case. I think our our skepticism is more
Speaker 1: that will automakers really build something that if there isn't
Speaker 1: a policy push to do so, that can never get
Speaker 1: cheaper than an internal combustion engine vehicle, because you do
Speaker 1: have a lot of added costs. And so increasingly what
Speaker 1: we're seeing is it automakers kind of they're going to
Speaker 1: sell a bunch of peat plug in hybrids in the
Speaker 1: next little while. But then the strategy starts to get
Speaker 1: a bit more, a bit like a barbell. You go
Speaker 1: fully electric, and then you do a bunch of mild hybrids,
Speaker 1: non pluggable the lowest level of electrification you can, because
Speaker 1: that's quite a cheap way to get the rest of
Speaker 1: the emissions of the rest of your fleet down, and
Speaker 1: then you sell a fair amount of fully electric vehicles
Speaker 1: as well. This is actually one of the fascinating things that,
Speaker 1: to be honest, makes this out look really hard to
Speaker 1: do is that, for one, on the passenger vehicle side anyway,
Speaker 1: right now, in some places you're in the middle of
Speaker 1: a steep part of the curve. Right This isn't theoretical anymore.
Speaker 1: In Germany, more than of auto sales have a plug
Speaker 1: right now. China the latest data in June here around
Speaker 1: fift that's the world's largest auto market. You're really hitting
Speaker 1: kind of the steep part of the curve. So one
Speaker 1: of the things that makes it tricky there is that
Speaker 1: it's already kind of happening. This isn't something way in
Speaker 1: the future. It's kind of happening now. The other thing
Speaker 1: is course, is that there's still a lot of policy
Speaker 1: in the mix. Like we're waiting kind of on tenter
Speaker 1: hook right now to see what the Biden administration does
Speaker 1: with fuel economy regulations in the US, because depending on
Speaker 1: what they do with those, it could go faster or slower.
Speaker 1: So this is where when you're doing these long term
Speaker 1: out looks, you have to be really clear what the
Speaker 1: exercises and what we're trying to do is saying here's
Speaker 1: the policy or here's the outlook with no new policies,
Speaker 1: and then here's the net zero outlook. If you want
Speaker 1: to get to that, here's how how much further and
Speaker 1: faster has to go. But we recognize that in the
Speaker 1: near term there is going to be more policy, there
Speaker 1: are going to be more changes, There's gonna be a
Speaker 1: lot of different things that happened. So I think that's
Speaker 1: maybe something we haven't explained as well as we could
Speaker 1: have in the past, that that economic transition scenario assumes
Speaker 1: no new policies, and therefore when there is a new policy,
Speaker 1: it might change the curve. So an example I always
Speaker 1: kind of give is, look, if you were building an
Speaker 1: outlook model in the US last year and you somehow
Speaker 1: knew that Biden was going to win the election, great
Speaker 1: good on you. But we didn't know that, and we're
Speaker 1: not in the business of a forecast election. So we
Speaker 1: had to take sort of here's what the current policy is,
Speaker 1: and here's what what that means for adoption. So that's
Speaker 1: kind of one of the tricky things both to do
Speaker 1: and to kind of communicate what it means overall. Okay,
Speaker 1: so many different directions we could go down. There, so
Speaker 1: many roads we could go down. Huh No, pun intended.
Speaker 1: So much of our language is based on metaphors around transport.
Speaker 1: Once you start to see them, notice them, you can't
Speaker 1: stop seeing them everywhere. Oh sure, okay, so let's actually
Speaker 1: do get into the results for a second, and then
Speaker 1: we can go down a few different roads about you
Speaker 1: know what some of the different markets are doing, some
Speaker 1: of the policies that are in place, etcetera. But as
Speaker 1: you said, your team has been doing this for six
Speaker 1: years now. Is there anything that surprised you from doing
Speaker 1: this year's EVO that you hadn't seen in previous years.
Speaker 1: I think doing this net zero scenario was a bit
Speaker 1: of an eye opener. Even been working on the stuff
Speaker 1: for a long time, and you see how fast it's
Speaker 1: all happening, and it feels like, wow, we're we're in
Speaker 1: the middle of a huge transition. Things are really going
Speaker 1: But at the same time, doing the net zero scenario
Speaker 1: reminds you that it's still all has to go a
Speaker 1: lot faster, and I think that was probably the biggest surprise.
Speaker 1: I mean, you sort of know that intellectually, but then
Speaker 1: you spend three months kind of in the data and
Speaker 1: you're like, well, we we have to as a like globally,
Speaker 1: you would have to phase out combustion vehicle sales um
Speaker 1: completely to stay on track for the net zero scenario,
Speaker 1: and even to do that, you need to do a
Speaker 1: lot of early retirements of older vehicles in to even
Speaker 1: do that. If you wanted to and if you wanted
Speaker 1: to get to net zero without doing early retirements, you
Speaker 1: almost have to stop selling to internal combustion engine vehicles
Speaker 1: tomorrow because some vehicles that are sold now stay on
Speaker 1: the road for a very long time. So so there's
Speaker 1: just some reality of spending that time in the data
Speaker 1: around the net zero scenario that makes you go, wow.
Speaker 1: Road transport is especially personal. Road transport is probably one
Speaker 1: of the areas that, um, we're most optimistic are in
Speaker 1: the in the energy transition, because you have the solutions
Speaker 1: today that can get you most of the way there
Speaker 1: and yet still hard. So I think that's important kind
Speaker 1: of kind of context in all of this that that
Speaker 1: was maybe a bit surprising, again even though you might
Speaker 1: intellectually know it. The other one that's kind of related
Speaker 1: is that we did some investigations this year around reducing
Speaker 1: demand from mobility. Everyone talks about changing over vehicles and
Speaker 1: most of the government programs are aimed at at that,
Speaker 1: at having different options to do the same amount of
Speaker 1: driving and this sort of thing. But we are starting
Speaker 1: to see some governments saying, actually, no, we need to
Speaker 1: tackle how much people are driving around and we need
Speaker 1: to reduce that. And that's through a combination of active travel,
Speaker 1: more dense cities, better public transit. And I guess one
Speaker 1: of the other kind of surprises that I'd like to
Speaker 1: go into a bit more in the future, and and
Speaker 1: and the sustainable transport advocates of course have been all
Speaker 1: over this for a very long time, but is just
Speaker 1: that if you can find a way to reduce demand
Speaker 1: even a little bit, it makes the job of getting
Speaker 1: to net zero a lot easier. So that means you
Speaker 1: want to promote all those things. You want to promote
Speaker 1: more cycling, you want to promote more public trends that
Speaker 1: you want to promote more density and urban areas. You're
Speaker 1: gonna need all of that, and you're also going to
Speaker 1: need millions of electric vehicles in order to to stay
Speaker 1: on track for the net zero scenario. So we're given
Speaker 1: the sort of timing that we're all talking about all
Speaker 1: around these climate targets. Were in the phase where you
Speaker 1: have to do all of the above and you have
Speaker 1: to do all of it very quickly, and that was
Speaker 1: definitely one of the things that really stood out from
Speaker 1: this year's exercise. The other thing that was interesting, again
Speaker 1: from from the net zero scenario stuff, is that some
Speaker 1: segments are are closer to on track than others. So
Speaker 1: the main segments that we look at our passenger cars,
Speaker 1: light commercial vehicles, medium commercial vehicles, heavy commercial vehicles, buses,
Speaker 1: and two and three wheelers. And if you look at
Speaker 1: two and three wheelers and buses, you're actually already at
Speaker 1: pretty high rates of adoption of electric vehicles in those segments,
Speaker 1: and those ones are already pretty close to on track
Speaker 1: for the net zero scenarios. So two and three wheelers
Speaker 1: globally of all vehicles sales last year were already electric.
Speaker 1: Uh and bus is I think we're at almost most
Speaker 1: of that is led out of China, but there's also
Speaker 1: quite a bit of activity spreading in other countries as well.
Speaker 1: So that was kind of another surprise is that, oh, actually,
Speaker 1: in some of these segments of road transport, we're not
Speaker 1: too far off the net zero scenario, and in others
Speaker 1: were miles off, so the ones like heavy commercial vehicles,
Speaker 1: the transition there has not even started and there's a
Speaker 1: long way to go. That was really noticeable last time,
Speaker 1: well last time we were in Shanghai for the b
Speaker 1: NF Shanghai Summit. In they're electric scooters everywhere. It's just really, really,
Speaker 1: really prevalent. I just gonna say that that I totally,
Speaker 1: I totally totally agree with you that once you start
Speaker 1: to look at how far there is to go, you
Speaker 1: realize that we haven't even really started yet. I did
Speaker 1: just back of the envelope calculations, you know, the day
Speaker 1: looking at our New Energy Outlook scenarios, right, and I
Speaker 1: just used some you know, average numbers for how big
Speaker 1: a wind or solar farm would have to be or
Speaker 1: would be. And it took me in the huns and
Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of projects to get to the point
Speaker 1: that we lay out in the New Energy Outlook NEO.
Speaker 1: And it makes you realize, Okay, we're not really even
Speaker 1: started yet. So yeah, definitely a long way to go. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I think I think these long term targets are
Speaker 1: it's good that they're stretched targets, right. We want to
Speaker 1: keep pushing as to what's possible. And and to be honest,
Speaker 1: this is kind of new turf for us at b
Speaker 1: an F. We've we've spent much more time saying here's
Speaker 1: what's happening, here's what we think it means, here's what
Speaker 1: we think a sensible strategy is, and a lot less
Speaker 1: time on what should happen, right because we're not advocates
Speaker 1: were we're industry analysts. But this is kind of where
Speaker 1: these long term exercises start to blend the two, because
Speaker 1: you spend enough time in the data and you just
Speaker 1: feel like, okay, well, then if we're going to do this, this,
Speaker 1: this is what should happen, this is what has to happen.
Speaker 1: And you find yourself using language that would be much
Speaker 1: more associated with sort of activists or or advocates. And
Speaker 1: I find that in an interesting sort of transition and
Speaker 1: in in my analysts career to talk about that sort
Speaker 1: of stuff. It also makes me uncomfortable sometimes too, because
Speaker 1: it's not what I've thought my role is in the past.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're at a juncture where, uh, where you
Speaker 1: do have to accelerate all this stuff where you are
Speaker 1: and even if you do accelerate all this stuff, you're
Speaker 1: gonna deal with some pretty negative impacts from from climate
Speaker 1: and we're we're seeing that right now. But that tension
Speaker 1: is getting strong between are you are you an analyst
Speaker 1: or are you advocating for a technology? And and I
Speaker 1: think that's sort of one of the things you just
Speaker 1: have to sit with as you're doing these long term outlooks.
Speaker 1: I think you can be both, right. I actually really
Speaker 1: listened to Um part of Fatty Bureau of the IDA
Speaker 1: his speech from earlier last was it this year? Earlier
Speaker 1: this year? Yeah, where he said that you know, new
Speaker 1: exploration for for fossil fields just kind of has to stop, right,
Speaker 1: and the I as you know, analysts but also advocates.
Speaker 1: But really I think you can you could just rest
Speaker 1: on saying if you want this to happen, you know,
Speaker 1: for example, in net zero, then this has to happen. Right.
Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be like we have to do this,
Speaker 1: there's no necessary you don't necessarily have to say it
Speaker 1: like that, but it's just if you want this, then
Speaker 1: you gotta do this exactly. And that's that's how we
Speaker 1: framed all of this, is look, if you if if
Speaker 1: we take these targets seriously and we want to hit them.
Speaker 1: Here's the trajectory you have to be on. And just
Speaker 1: to give you an example, one of the things we
Speaker 1: tried to do to highlight that is we said, okay,
Speaker 1: what has to happen to passenger vehicle sales to stay
Speaker 1: on track for the net zero scenario. They have to
Speaker 1: get to about six fully electric share by So what
Speaker 1: does that? What does that conceptually mean? How do you
Speaker 1: try to bring that make that real? Norway, very small
Speaker 1: market that's lad on evs, has gone from about three
Speaker 1: or four percent to about six fully electric share over
Speaker 1: roughly a ten year period. And what we're saying is
Speaker 1: that the global auto market, which was about four percent
Speaker 1: of sales are electric last year, has to go from
Speaker 1: about four to about six over the next tent. So
Speaker 1: the entire global auto market has to follow the same
Speaker 1: trajectory over the next ten years that Norway followed over
Speaker 1: the last tent. That's gonna be hard there. There are
Speaker 1: going to be challenged with that. There are reasons to
Speaker 1: be optimistic about that, things like the vehicles are a
Speaker 1: lot better, there's more charging infrastructure, There's all sorts of
Speaker 1: things that you can be optimistic about that. There's other
Speaker 1: reasons to say, well, look, nor we had a very
Speaker 1: specific tax structure. It also has a lot of single
Speaker 1: detached homes and a and a really big spread between
Speaker 1: the cost of petrol and the cost of electricity that's
Speaker 1: quite favorable to ev s. That's hard to replicate elsewhere.
Speaker 1: But so those are some of the types of things
Speaker 1: we're trying to say. Okay, let's not just talk about
Speaker 1: our net zero targets framed as let's talk about what
Speaker 1: you have to do in the near term to stay
Speaker 1: on track for those targets. And that leads you to
Speaker 1: some of these more easy to relate to examples that
Speaker 1: are in the report as well. Now for a very
Speaker 1: short break, stay with us. So do you think net
Speaker 1: zero is really the motivation for deployment? Like, I mean,
Speaker 1: let's talk about deployment, right, So, like, are better cars
Speaker 1: more of a motivator or is it charging network more
Speaker 1: of a motivator? Or is it simply policy? You know?
Speaker 1: And what are some of the things that other markets
Speaker 1: can do, maybe that don't have a lot of single
Speaker 1: family homes in the near term to encourage deployment. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this kind of policy versus consumer demand poll is a
Speaker 1: question that comes up a lot, and the detractors for
Speaker 1: electric vehicle adoption will say, it's all just policy, it's
Speaker 1: just pushed onto the market by governments, and it's it's
Speaker 1: just it's yeah, there there isn't organic consumer demand. The
Speaker 1: people who are really pro would often say, no, it's
Speaker 1: all consumer demand and it's going to take off either way,
Speaker 1: no matter what happens with policy. I think it's it's
Speaker 1: it's a mix of those two. Write all the people
Speaker 1: who drive evs love them, but also where there is
Speaker 1: no policy support, there are no EV sales. Generally, to
Speaker 1: come back to kind of the question, it is going
Speaker 1: to take off because it's a cooler, better car. I
Speaker 1: don't think there's very many things that have consumer products
Speaker 1: that have taken off entirely based on their environmental attributes. Right.
Speaker 1: That can get you a certain percentage of buyers, but
Speaker 1: it can't get you all of them. Yeah, and it
Speaker 1: probably can't get you more than four or five. It's
Speaker 1: hard to get everyone on board with something purely based
Speaker 1: on environmental metrics. But so so it is going to
Speaker 1: They are going to take off because they're a better car,
Speaker 1: and that's not a future statement. They're kind of getting
Speaker 1: there now. But you do have to do a lot
Speaker 1: to help enable that, right, And one of the things,
Speaker 1: just as an example, I mentioned China sales data right now.
Speaker 1: So China just in June about fifteen percent of sales
Speaker 1: fully elect or fifteen percent of sales were electric. That's
Speaker 1: in the world's largest autom market, a remarkable leap. Part
Speaker 1: of that is driven because China started building charging infrastructure
Speaker 1: way ahead of demand. So in December, China build over
Speaker 1: a hundred thousand chargers, which is more than the size
Speaker 1: of the entire US network built over twenty years. Depending
Speaker 1: on when you start, want to start the clock in
Speaker 1: one month. And so what they're doing is saying, look,
Speaker 1: we we recognize as coming, so let's let's build the
Speaker 1: network for it. And now they start seeing starting to
Speaker 1: see much higher levels of adoption. So it's this kind
Speaker 1: of if you build it, they will come. And that
Speaker 1: is very true of charging infrastructure. But you need to
Speaker 1: have the in some cases government support or certainly a
Speaker 1: lot of buy in from from different groups in order
Speaker 1: to get that level of build out. But they're also
Speaker 1: kind of doucing it a bit. Right. We had seen
Speaker 1: me on last week talking about some of the policy
Speaker 1: mechanisms they got in place, like the cap and trade
Speaker 1: for cars, what do they call it, the n e
Speaker 1: V program. Basically that puts the onus on the manufacturers
Speaker 1: to sell evs in that market. Is that working? Is
Speaker 1: it going in other markets as well? Yeah, and I
Speaker 1: didn't mean to imply that what's happening in China's entirely
Speaker 1: organic consumer demand. Definitely, the policy still playing a big role.
Speaker 1: China's fuel economy regulations, the ny V credit system, the
Speaker 1: city level restrictions, those are also all a big part
Speaker 1: of what's driving the Chinese market. The interesting thing is
Speaker 1: is that's allowed there to be a number of uh, startup,
Speaker 1: very well funded startups, but I guess we still call
Speaker 1: them start up Chinese auto manufacturers that are producing models
Speaker 1: that do seem to have some real organic consumer demand
Speaker 1: to them, which is getting getting quite interesting. So this
Speaker 1: is where it is. It is kind of a mix.
Speaker 1: It is kind of a mix of the cooler car
Speaker 1: that that that people love, but also the policy support
Speaker 1: to help enable the supply to get there. There's a
Speaker 1: podcast I listened to. I won't mention the name, but
Speaker 1: it's fantas Sick, and the host often talks about the
Speaker 1: pending Apple car and how he thinks that's gonna, you know,
Speaker 1: just take over the market when it comes out. You know,
Speaker 1: I don't know either way, But like, is there a
Speaker 1: place for startup e V? Maybe you know, Apple would
Speaker 1: be a startup in this case, but is there a
Speaker 1: case where newcomers in this market? There are a lot
Speaker 1: of newcomers, and in my view, there are too many
Speaker 1: car companies. In my view, there were probably too many
Speaker 1: car companies before all this happened. If you look at
Speaker 1: how a lot of them just kind of replicate the
Speaker 1: same the same R and D spending, And I wouldn't
Speaker 1: say that's an especially efficient allocation of capital. You have.
Speaker 1: As I said, you probably have too many car companies
Speaker 1: before all this hit. Now you have have way too many,
Speaker 1: I think. But having said that that those startups and
Speaker 1: challengers are a big part of what is pushing the
Speaker 1: market forward. I think the window on the startups is
Speaker 1: closing a bit. So a bunch of them have made
Speaker 1: it through. So obviously Tesla is very established now, other
Speaker 1: ones like Chinese ones like Neo, x, Pung b y D,
Speaker 1: upcoming ones like Rivian and Lucid. There's kind of a
Speaker 1: top tier of these startups, and again I wouldn't put
Speaker 1: Tesla in that category the very established. Now there's kind
Speaker 1: of a top tier of this next group of startups,
Speaker 1: then there's going to be a large list of kind
Speaker 1: of also rans. I think if you're entering the v
Speaker 1: market now, you have to be entering it with a
Speaker 1: very different angle, which which I think would be Apple's angle.
Speaker 1: They would they wouldn't try and manufacture their own vehicles,
Speaker 1: they'd rely on external party. There would be some sort
Speaker 1: of major software differentiation, whether that's some combination of connectivity
Speaker 1: on autonomous driving, you would need something quite special, I
Speaker 1: think to differentiate. I think this there was this there
Speaker 1: is this window around electrification, but it's closing fast as
Speaker 1: the established automakers really ramp up their spending and start
Speaker 1: cranking out the models in the next few years. Okay, now,
Speaker 1: speaking of also rans, we've got the Olympics going on
Speaker 1: in Japan, and I know japan and Japanese companies have
Speaker 1: had high hopes and put a lot of investment into
Speaker 1: hydrogen fuel sale vehicles, but in the report they don't
Speaker 1: really show up in a big way. Why is that?
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of discussions on this over the years,
Speaker 1: and I won't try and kind of rehash them all
Speaker 1: over over here. If you want to UM, if you
Speaker 1: want to have if you want to hear them all,
Speaker 1: you can just go on Twitter and say something controversial
Speaker 1: and people will pounce on it on either side and
Speaker 1: you can get a great back and forth in your
Speaker 1: Twitter mentions. But UM a couple of reasons they don't
Speaker 1: play a big role in our economic transition scenario. One
Speaker 1: of them is around the availability of green hydrogen. So
Speaker 1: bn F has done a lot of work we on
Speaker 1: green on hydrogen. We do think hydrogen produce for renewables
Speaker 1: is going to get a lot cheaper over the next
Speaker 1: few years, in the next decades, but it's still going
Speaker 1: to be a scarce resource. There's still going to be
Speaker 1: competition for its supply. And I think you can make
Speaker 1: a case that you should use that green hydrogen in
Speaker 1: areas where you don't have a viable alternative for decarbonization.
Speaker 1: So that might be things like fertilizer, it might be
Speaker 1: things like um shipping by ammonia, it might be aviation,
Speaker 1: it might be heavy industry. You do have a route
Speaker 1: to de carbonization for for passenger vehicles, so putting it
Speaker 1: into passenger vehicles. I don't think it is a great
Speaker 1: use of a scarce resource. So that's kind of the
Speaker 1: from this perspective of like efficiency and designing a system
Speaker 1: and all this sort of stuff. But of course there's
Speaker 1: nobody orchestrating everything around how this plays out around the world.
Speaker 1: The other reason is much more around just the numbers
Speaker 1: about where we are today. So if you look at
Speaker 1: the amount of fuel cell vehicles on the road today,
Speaker 1: if you are to guest mark, there's a there's one
Speaker 1: point to billion cars in the world. How many fuel
Speaker 1: cell vehicles do you think there are? Mandod Yeah, order magnitude,
Speaker 1: So all across all vehicle types, cumulative sales are around
Speaker 1: thirty thousand. The actual fleet is smaller than that, so
Speaker 1: not not not bad as as a as a guess,
Speaker 1: the actual fleet is around thirty thousand, or the cumuli
Speaker 1: of sales around thirty thousand, and the first generation of
Speaker 1: Maras from Toyota, a lot of those are getting taken
Speaker 1: back off Ley, so some are under thirty thou And
Speaker 1: so if you just stay with that number for a second,
Speaker 1: and again let's think about spending lots of time in
Speaker 1: the numbers and orders of magnitude and these sorts of things.
Speaker 1: If the number of fuel cell vehicles on the road
Speaker 1: doubled every eighteen months, every eighteen months all the way
Speaker 1: out to they would still only be about one to
Speaker 1: one and a half percent of all the vehicles on
Speaker 1: the road. So even if you believe that scenario and
Speaker 1: it's really hard to double the fleet every eighteen months,
Speaker 1: that would be incredibly rapid growth. But the starting point
Speaker 1: really matters. And again, when we're looking at these these
Speaker 1: kind of time scales were on you need you need
Speaker 1: to somehow go even faster than that for them to
Speaker 1: make a material impact in the passenger vehicle segment. So
Speaker 1: there's all these other arguments about UH infrastructure and efficiency
Speaker 1: and all those sorts of things that are hashed out
Speaker 1: at nauseum elsewhere, But I think just the raw numbers
Speaker 1: part is something that's underappreciated, is that even in the
Speaker 1: scenario where these grow really rapidly, they're not a big
Speaker 1: part of vehicles on the road, at least in the
Speaker 1: passenger vehicle segment. And then there's this other thing around
Speaker 1: There isn't a similar parallel industry that you saw with
Speaker 1: lithium ion batteries in the form of consumer electronics that's
Speaker 1: driving down the cost of fuel cell vehicle stacks, So
Speaker 1: they don't play much of a role at all on
Speaker 1: the passenger vehicle side in our in our outlook, they
Speaker 1: might play a role in the heavy and heavy duty
Speaker 1: long haul vehicles in the net zero scenario. So that's
Speaker 1: kind of where we see. There's still a bit of
Speaker 1: a technology question, but we're actually getting more optimistic on
Speaker 1: the role the batteries are going to play in even
Speaker 1: in heavy duty long haul. So definitely a participation award there,
Speaker 1: not necessarily a medal. Okay, So where might we be
Speaker 1: wrong in EVO? What are some of the potential blind
Speaker 1: spots that came up. Yeah, one of them, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: is trucks. So there's a lot of different technologies competing
Speaker 1: for for the heavy duty truck and parts. So we
Speaker 1: think increasingly that fully electric trucks are going to going
Speaker 1: to play a big role, and and some combination of
Speaker 1: just fully electric or maybe overhead lines or overhead catinary
Speaker 1: lines or battery swapping for trucks, those are all sort
Speaker 1: of in the running, but that those that that can
Speaker 1: play quite a big role. We might be wrong there,
Speaker 1: there's this is at the very beginning of that transition.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of money flying around, so that could
Speaker 1: still we could still be wrong there. Another one is
Speaker 1: that is autonomous vehicles, so and shared mobility more generally. Um,
Speaker 1: this is still kind of a wild card. So we
Speaker 1: do think shared mobility goes up a lot over the
Speaker 1: over the next years. So right now, about three to
Speaker 1: four of all kilometers traveled in cars anyway are in
Speaker 1: some sort of shared mobility application, so that includes taxis
Speaker 1: and things like that, and in some countries it's much higher,
Speaker 1: but globally it's about that. We think that goes up
Speaker 1: to about but there's a lot of unknowns in that.
Speaker 1: Right if you really get fully autonomous vehicles that the
Speaker 1: sort of robotaxi scenario, it could go up a lot
Speaker 1: more than that. Um, we've been kind of skeptical about
Speaker 1: that and and sort of said no, that's much more
Speaker 1: of a late thirties story. Though you are going to
Speaker 1: get some interesting city level experiments in the Indian interim.
Speaker 1: Once you talk about global car markets and global energy picture,
Speaker 1: it's probably not in the next ten years. But again
Speaker 1: we might be wrong there, and that that's an interesting one,
Speaker 1: and then the last one I would just say is
Speaker 1: that it's very hard to know or quantify the pushback
Speaker 1: that you might get on some of these transitions. So
Speaker 1: if you think about I think about the last couple
Speaker 1: of electoral cycles in the US where coal became this
Speaker 1: really big issue, right like it became a sort of mark,
Speaker 1: a signaling device and part of the kind of culture
Speaker 1: wars and and all this sort of stuff. And I
Speaker 1: think the day I'm this isn't my field, but I
Speaker 1: think the data says that's somewhere around the number of
Speaker 1: people who work in the US coal industry similar to
Speaker 1: the number of people who work at Arby's, a mid
Speaker 1: size fast food fast food chain in the US, not
Speaker 1: a huge employer. A lot more people work in oil
Speaker 1: and gas, and a lot more people work in in
Speaker 1: in in different parts of the internal combustion engine value chain,
Speaker 1: so in the supply chain. So there is going to
Speaker 1: be pushback against a bunch of this stuff, and it's
Speaker 1: just a question of what form it takes, how strong
Speaker 1: it is, how long it lasts, and that's those are
Speaker 1: things that are hard hard to quantify for us. We
Speaker 1: don't assume anything on that right now. We don't assume
Speaker 1: there's a big backlash or anything like that, because we
Speaker 1: assume that the number of people who are driving electric
Speaker 1: vehicles is they're enjoying their purchase and they become part
Speaker 1: of the ones who are supporting that transition. But the
Speaker 1: reality is this stuff may be messy in the interim.
Speaker 1: You are both our outlooks in both the scenarios that
Speaker 1: we run. Oil demand peaks within the ties and then
Speaker 1: starts to decline. The politics of what happens then is
Speaker 1: probably going to get quite complicated. And I think that's
Speaker 1: something that we just don't know exactly how that's going
Speaker 1: to play out, but we're watching it carefully. So that's
Speaker 1: kind of another mind spot is that this is a
Speaker 1: big transition involving big industries. The auto industry. Auto sales
Speaker 1: are a couple of trillion dollars a year, Oil and
Speaker 1: gas another big industry. How is that going to play out?
Speaker 1: And I think I think you'd be sort of foolish
Speaker 1: to think it's all just going to go very very smoothly.
Speaker 1: I think we're we're going to have some there's gonna
Speaker 1: be some battles there, and and and we don't know
Speaker 1: exactly what's going to come from those. So will your
Speaker 1: analysis be to show up some of those blind spots
Speaker 1: to you know, factor in some of the battles that
Speaker 1: might take place, or what are your plans to change
Speaker 1: in the next iteration of this report? Yeah, I think unfortunately,
Speaker 1: some of those blind spots are just gonna sit as
Speaker 1: blind spots. I don't think this time next year we're
Speaker 1: going to have a hugely better view on exact timelines
Speaker 1: of a v S or how what what shapes some
Speaker 1: pushback might might take. But I can say that we
Speaker 1: want to start doing more on the roadmap for net zero.
Speaker 1: So not just saying globally, here's what has to happen,
Speaker 1: but start saying on a country basis, here's what has
Speaker 1: to happen. Because our net zero scenario is actually a
Speaker 1: global one, whereas the the other scenario and the report
Speaker 1: is a country by country one built bottom up. So
Speaker 1: we want to start doing a roadmap to net zero
Speaker 1: four different countries and with specific policy recommendations on how
Speaker 1: to get there. And then we also want to do
Speaker 1: more on infrastructure costs. Right now, we have some high
Speaker 1: level conclusions on the amount of investment needed in infrastructure,
Speaker 1: but we want to do more on different deployment models, um,
Speaker 1: different support models, because increasingly that's kind of one of
Speaker 1: the areas that's really coming into focus as it becomes
Speaker 1: clear that the demand is probably there, the cars are
Speaker 1: probably there, the economics are getting good, all this sort
Speaker 1: of stuff, Um, we want to zoom in on those
Speaker 1: parts that still have some uncertainty around them. So that's
Speaker 1: that's still around the infrastructure side, and that seems to
Speaker 1: make a lot of sense with Top twenty six coming up.
Speaker 1: You know, you have all these countries making pledges or not,
Speaker 1: and you want to have a bit more clarity on
Speaker 1: the country level. It seems yeah, definitely. You know, since
Speaker 1: since we missed our ten predictions this year, is there
Speaker 1: anything that we should be looking for, anything that you're
Speaker 1: looking for? In h two of we're on pace for
Speaker 1: a record year on ev adoption, So we're just kind
Speaker 1: of watching the numbers there and I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: probably exceed our expectations again for this year and probably
Speaker 1: have over five million v sold. So that's that's important.
Speaker 1: We just crossed one percent of all vehicles in the
Speaker 1: world being electric, which is also important. One of the
Speaker 1: things that I'm I'm kind of watching that I think
Speaker 1: is going to be really neat in the next a
Speaker 1: little more than just the next six months. But what
Speaker 1: happens with um some of these Chinese ev companies that
Speaker 1: are trying to sell levis in other markets outside of
Speaker 1: their own, outside of their home market as well, so
Speaker 1: some of them starting to export to Europe. And what
Speaker 1: that's doing is kind of keeping established automakers from just
Speaker 1: treating evs as a compliance only tool because there's these
Speaker 1: other sort of pressure of someone else coming in and and saying, well,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm willing to sell these things. I'm and I'm
Speaker 1: going to take market share if you if you don't
Speaker 1: ramp up your effort. So I think that I think
Speaker 1: what that signals is that the competitive dynamics are getting interesting,
Speaker 1: because for a while, some automakers were sort of saying, no,
Speaker 1: this isn't the direction we're heading. That's kind of all gone.
Speaker 1: Now everybody's saying, there, look, our our future is is electric.
Speaker 1: It's just all a question of segments and timings, and
Speaker 1: that's where you start to get much more interesting competitive dynamics.
Speaker 1: So forward, for example, coming out and saying the F
Speaker 1: one fifty lightning the base competitive base price is actually
Speaker 1: pretty competitive with with the with the base price of
Speaker 1: of a normal F one fifty in the US. That's
Speaker 1: an example that they're saying, no, we're going to defend
Speaker 1: market share in the full size pickup segments so that
Speaker 1: electrification doesn't take anything away from our our our real
Speaker 1: cash cow there. And again that's just those things about
Speaker 1: Chinese evs, your Chinese automakers trying to enter Europe forward,
Speaker 1: defending market share. It just shows that you're getting to
Speaker 1: the next phase of adoption where it's much more about
Speaker 1: competitive dynamics automaker strategies and less questions about oh do
Speaker 1: people want these are not? And I think that's sort
Speaker 1: of the one of the air is that we're we're
Speaker 1: pretty interested in. And then one other thing I'm kind
Speaker 1: of watching is is at b n F, we're also
Speaker 1: expanding our our scope of our transport team coverage, so
Speaker 1: we're doing more now on on shipping and aviation, so
Speaker 1: we're starting to look more at what are the pathways
Speaker 1: around decarbonizing some of these other parts of the transport ecosystem,
Speaker 1: and and I think most of those are still much
Speaker 1: further behind where we are on a road road transport,
Speaker 1: but there are still really interesting things happening. So we're
Speaker 1: tracking everything from procurement of electric aircraft to the types
Speaker 1: of shipping vessels that are being procured, and that's that's
Speaker 1: going to be something we're keeping a close eye on
Speaker 1: in the next six eight months as well. One final question,
Speaker 1: along with the predictions, give me your take. Are you
Speaker 1: more or less optimistic on decarbonizing transport than you were
Speaker 1: in the past. I think I'm much more optimistic on
Speaker 1: the speed of adoption of some of these alternative drive trains.
Speaker 1: Things are going really fast. There's a lot of reasons
Speaker 1: to be very optimistic on on that. I think I'm
Speaker 1: also more aware of the sheer scale of the challenge
Speaker 1: than I than I was in the past. And again,
Speaker 1: digging into that data on the net Serah scenario shows
Speaker 1: you that, yeah, you can be really optimistic about it
Speaker 1: happening fast, and it probably has to happen even faster
Speaker 1: than than you thought to stay on track for that scenario.
Speaker 1: So my optimism waxes and wanes a bit. It probably
Speaker 1: depends a bit on whether I've had two cups of
Speaker 1: coffee or on one when you ask me that question.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think I'm more optimistic on the speed
Speaker 1: of adoption, but more aware of just how how big
Speaker 1: the system is and how hard how long it takes
Speaker 1: to change. Colin, always a pleasure having you on. We
Speaker 1: look forward to have many back soon. Great Thanks Mark.
Speaker 1: This week's show was produced by Eva Gonzalez Visla and
Speaker 1: edited by Rex Warner of great Stoke Media. BLOOMBERGINNYA is
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