1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: We have the newly appointed chair to the Milk and 2 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: Institute Asia, Curtistian with US. Curtis is also former US 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: Ambassador to the Asian Development Bank. And Curtis, you've just 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: come from the G twenty where we are waiting to 5 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: see diplomats agreeing on this draft statement despite the riffs 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: on Russia. Just how nimble does that show that the 7 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: G twenty needs to be when we've got all these 8 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: developing concerns happening and the war in Ukraine really escalating. Well, 9 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: you know, one question will be let's see what that 10 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: final language is because I think they agreed before these 11 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: missiles uh we weren't shot into Poland or appeared people 12 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: are saying in Poland. Um, so you know, whether they 13 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: originated on through Russia or there are missiles in Ukraine 14 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: that kind of fell back. We'll find that out. But 15 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: when we think about our part of the world out here, UM, 16 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia in particular, you know, no country has really 17 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: wanted to take a side UH in US China and 18 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: really no country has really wanted to say yes, what 19 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: is bad? UH in Ukraine cannot come out here. So 20 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: you've seen some acting Singapore Cambodia have spoken up a 21 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 1: little bit about it, but I think countries are having 22 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 1: to face you know, what is no longer the elephant 23 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: in the room, the Russian elephant. Uh, you know, because 24 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: we're seeing the impact with regards of supply chains, with 25 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 1: regards to inflation. So that's your question. I hope there 26 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 1: is that they can be more nimble, But sometimes nimble 27 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: is about let's come up with some new rhetoric, and 28 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: not so nimble about really driving change and getting different 29 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: kinds of results. We've been talking as well about the impact. 30 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: I guess that we need to focus here in on Asia. 31 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,199 Speaker 1: Two when you've had had such big events happening in Asia, 32 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: the G twenty Acciona, I know you're about to head 33 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: to a pact as well. When we look at the 34 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: countries here in Asia being more nimble to these geopolitical events, 35 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 1: how much more does the world need to pay attention 36 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 1: to to Asia? Oh? Well, absolutely. You know I've long 37 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: argued through many administrator I've been honored to serve both 38 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: Republican and democratic administrations in the United States, and I 39 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: would say all these administrations, uh, we just need to 40 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: get our act together, and that includes in essence, a 41 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: full pivot to Asia. And if you remember way back 42 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 1: when under President Obama and then Vice President Biden, they 43 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: talked about a pivot to Asia, but then the words 44 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: changed to a rebalanced to Asia. But at the end 45 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: of the day, the United States, at all levels business, government, 46 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: civil society needs to be much more engaged in this region. 47 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: And i'd argue and a key subset of this region, 48 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 1: which is Southeast Asia, the Southeast I remember the numbers 49 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: we add of the ten nations of the Association of 50 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: Southeast Asian Nations, it's something like I seven million people, 51 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: more than three trillion dollars g D p um. That's 52 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: a lot of opportunity for American business, for American entrepreneurs um. 53 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: But we need to focus on this and not see 54 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: this region to our economic competitors. You talked about supply 55 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: chain shocks just a moment ago, and we're certainly going 56 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: to see that exacerbated by what we've seen in Europe. 57 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: I was speaking earlier as well to the Trade chif CEO, 58 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: a Christian Lang who was saying that interest rates as 59 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 1: well from the fair of putting an invisible strain on 60 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 1: the supply system. When do we when do we start 61 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: to see these pressI disease. I don't think it's gonna 62 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: happen anytime soon, So certainly in the next two quarters 63 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: in my view. But as we've seen just overnight, how 64 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: things change so quickly. And so when I think about 65 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 1: you know, friends, colleagues, business people, I see out here, UM, 66 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:15,839 Speaker 1: inflation is really taking a toll on really everyday people. UM. 67 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: And so you know entirely and we're based part of 68 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: the time. I remember when the price of these instant 69 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: noodles really want from I don't I can't remember. It's 70 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: like fifteen cents to eighteen cents, and there were huge 71 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: news stories about well maybe this family will buy one 72 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: less or too less a week, and too often I think, 73 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: you know, all these movers and shakers at these great 74 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg events, Um, they're at the macro level, but really 75 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: let's not forget the real micro impact of these big 76 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: stories that we're dealing with. And one of the things 77 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: that is really worrying is it's going to exacerbate the 78 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: food crisis too, and we're looking at a potential for 79 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 1: the famine. I know you focus very much on sustainability, 80 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: what more needs to be done well specific the food. 81 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: You know, people say, well, why is that? It's just 82 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: not that yu grain isn't coming from Ukraine. But people 83 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: don't realize that food at the end of the day 84 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: is based sometimes on fertilizer, and fertilizer costs are typically 85 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: driven off so by what we just think our energy costs. 86 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 1: You know, how is fertilizer made. So clearly countries hopefully 87 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: we'll be able to work together. You know, President jo Koe, 88 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: who you know led the presidency of the G twenty UM, 89 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: has tried to bring nations together, you know, not as 90 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: successfully as might he might have hoped. He had hoped 91 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: that President putin you know, Biden and she would all 92 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: be kind of in the same room. Uh, that didn't happen. 93 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: But clearly his notion of that we need to get 94 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 1: countries to at least talk, if not yet cooperate, needs 95 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: to continue to be a key driver. I also think 96 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 1: I'm just wearing my milk and institute has As we 97 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: think about innovation areas of finance, we also need to 98 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: rethink things like food delivery, like where we get our 99 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: food from. And my hope is that you know, we're 100 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: still in this pandemic, but as we continue to emerge 101 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: that it won't be just same old, same old like 102 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: it was before. Including how we grow our food will 103 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: be a key part of that and feeding into the 104 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: inflationary concerns to when we talk about food, we talk 105 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: about rising rents, we talk about the impacts there. When 106 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: did you see inflation on a global level peak? And 107 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: how concerned are you about a deep downturn in Well, first, 108 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: you know, I always listen to Bloomberg to all these 109 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: smarter people than me, because you know, whenever I project something, 110 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: it's like totally wrong, but very clearly there's a lot 111 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: of number of other factors at play UH and typically 112 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: their domestic factors. So I'd like to say that the 113 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: United States going to focus on that same question and 114 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: think through you know, when are we going to stop 115 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: you know, the series of interest rates, but the reality 116 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: it's going to be driven by US domestic concerns and 117 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: how will our US economy does so, of course i'd 118 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: love to say it be sooner, because I will our 119 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: US economy to be better, but I think it's still 120 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 1: a bit of time coming before that happens. All right, Well, 121 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: let's talk about the US and and you obviously know 122 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 1: a lot about politics. We've had the midterms. We've just 123 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: heard that Donald Trump is going to run for president 124 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 1: in twenty four Your views on on what we're seeing 125 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: between the Democrats, Democrats and the Republicans. It's always like 126 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 1: a new new story every day that like has everything 127 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: I said yesterday turned over? Um? You know out of 128 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: these mid terms. Um, the reality is that former President 129 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: Trump is a little bit weakened. Right, A lot of 130 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: they can not say a lot, but some of the 131 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: candidates that he supported clearly did not come through the 132 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 1: so called Red Way being a sweep of Republicans when 133 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: he didn't happen, and there's now in fighting within the 134 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: Republican Party. So he's a little bit weaker. Um. What 135 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: that means for a key decision now by President Biden 136 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 1: as to whether or not he will run again is unclear, 137 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: but I think it opens up the race a bit 138 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: more that mid term election. Always a pleasure. Great to 139 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 1: see you in person after a couple of years, Curtis, 140 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: although I think we caught up about six months ago 141 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: when board is finally opened. But always great to have 142 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: you with us. A chair of Milk and Institute, Asia, 143 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: Curtis Chin with us here on the second day of 144 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.