Speaker 1: The volume all right before we start on my rant
Speaker 1: on Jim Harbaugh. If you want to grab your phone,
Speaker 1: download the game Time app. Takes less than ninety seconds.
Speaker 1: If you want to go to a championship game, you
Speaker 1: download the app. Game Time App. Use the code column.
Speaker 1: The redeem code colin coli in twenty bucks off your
Speaker 1: first purchase. Pretty good deal, right, game Time's fast easy, comedy, concerts,
Speaker 1: sporting events, theater and more. Game Time has deals right
Speaker 1: up to the event and in fact an hour after
Speaker 1: the event starts. The game Time App guarantees the best
Speaker 1: price you'll find tickets. Let's say in the same section,
Speaker 1: same row, and it's the same price. Game Time will
Speaker 1: credit you one hundred and ten percent the difference. Download
Speaker 1: the game Time App, create an account. The redeem code
Speaker 1: is colin coli in for twenty dollars off the first purchase.
Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Create an account, redeem code colin. Download
Speaker 1: the game Time App today last minute tickets loess price
Speaker 1: is guaranteed. Hi, everybody, welcome in very funny Sharper Square
Speaker 1: with Chad Millman. We're talking to Ravens, Chiefs, lions, Niners.
Speaker 1: Want to address a couple things Falcons did not hire
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick, who I thought, if he wanted personnel control,
Speaker 1: was one of the weaker candidates. I'm not interested in that.
Speaker 1: They hired Raey Morris. So Raheem was a coach and
Speaker 1: Tampa didn't work. Was a great assistant after Brandon Staley
Speaker 1: left for the Rams, became mcveigh's best friend on the
Speaker 1: staff and did very, very well with a really young defense.
Speaker 1: Morris is one of those guys like Demiko Ryans or
Speaker 1: Sean McVay. Very impressive in person, kind of you know,
Speaker 1: just a guy, eye contact, really smart point of view.
Speaker 1: So Raheem interviews very well. I've been told that numerous occasions.
Speaker 1: Probably I would have gone after maybe a Mike Rabel again,
Speaker 1: defensive coach. They don't have a quarterback. But I think
Speaker 1: this is what Belichick is falling into, is that it's
Speaker 1: really funny that Bill doesn't really have any vulnerability, Like
Speaker 1: Bill's gonna do what Bill wants to do. That's why
Speaker 1: he's got his kids on the staff and he hires
Speaker 1: coaches who are He had a very weak staff, multiple
Speaker 1: fired guys in New England, so you know Bill wants
Speaker 1: more control than Arthur Blank and Rich McKay are willing
Speaker 1: to give, and had Bill read the room, he would
Speaker 1: have known that Arthur Blank has never hired a big
Speaker 1: time head coach. He's always given it to up and
Speaker 1: coming coaches who don't feel like they have to own
Speaker 1: the room. Blank's a brilliant businessman. Rich McKay is excellent
Speaker 1: with operations and certainly knows talent. Terry Fontineau from the
Speaker 1: Saints is a smart guy that's well thought of around
Speaker 1: the league. I mean he's not you know, we don't
Speaker 1: look at him quite as a less Snead maybe yet,
Speaker 1: or a Mickey Loomis in New Orleans yet, or a
Speaker 1: Howie Roseman or a Brett Veach. But he is well
Speaker 1: thought of. But I think Belichick the thing that worries
Speaker 1: you if you're Atlanta. He's a milestone guy. Is he
Speaker 1: really care about Atlanta? Never? Never, never coached really, I
Speaker 1: mean head coach in Cleveland, then in New England, he
Speaker 1: didn't know much about the NFC South. He has drafted
Speaker 1: fifteen quarterbacks, one star Brady, one starter Garoppolo, two to
Speaker 1: three capable backups, and ten misses. So I think Bill
Speaker 1: was going up against recent history in Atlanta, where they're
Speaker 1: going to take a Dan Quinn. They're going to take
Speaker 1: a Raheem Morris. They're going to take a young, up
Speaker 1: and coming assistant that's not going to need to dominate personnel.
Speaker 1: And I'll be honest with you, the Seahawks' last two
Speaker 1: drafts have been much stronger when John Snyder was empowered
Speaker 1: by ownership and controlled the drafts. Pete in a vacuum
Speaker 1: in Seattle when Paul Allen died, had a lot of power.
Speaker 1: It frustrated John Snyder, who went and sought the Detroit
Speaker 1: Lions job, got a raised. They brought him back to Seattle,
Speaker 1: and there were some assurances that he would have more
Speaker 1: control in the draft. I have it on two different
Speaker 1: sources who I trust implicitly is that Pete would sometimes
Speaker 1: have a very strong opinion and it would sway the
Speaker 1: Seahawks rafts. And for years in a year, I was
Speaker 1: told this for years by people in the league. I
Speaker 1: respected that Seahawks drafts were unpredictable. Now, Pete's were very
Speaker 1: good when he came out out of college out of
Speaker 1: USC at a two or three year run where they're excellent.
Speaker 1: But like most pro coaches, he's not sitting around watching
Speaker 1: college football all Saturday. He's looking at NFL stuff, in
Speaker 1: at NFL personnel, in film. And I thought Seattle's drafts
Speaker 1: got much better in the last couple of years when
Speaker 1: John Snyder exerted more power. I think Belichick's last seven
Speaker 1: drafts have mostly been absolutely abysmal. Why again, I have
Speaker 1: it sourced for multiple people that as he started stacking
Speaker 1: rings and net worth and power, he was more difficult
Speaker 1: for Brady to deal with. And he told mid January
Speaker 1: the draft department, the scouts, I got it from here.
Speaker 1: It's hard to find any hits in the last seven drafts.
Speaker 1: On the offensive side, they've had two Pro bowlers, one's
Speaker 1: a punter. So I don't think coach. I remember when
Speaker 1: Mike Hoggan was in Seattle years ago, great coach, he
Speaker 1: had a little bit too much power. When he first
Speaker 1: started in Seattle, he struggled with a couple of early drafts.
Speaker 1: You're asking drafting is hard enough for great gms. Howie
Speaker 1: Roseman has had huge whiffs, and how he's brilliant and
Speaker 1: completely dedicated. So the idea that Bill Belichick, any of
Speaker 1: these coaches want over fifty percent power. John Gruden, by
Speaker 1: the way, with the Raiders, had the final say with
Speaker 1: Mike Mayock. I know that because it's sourced. Go look
Speaker 1: at the Raiders' first round picks. In later rounds, Ruden
Speaker 1: would let Mayock have more control. But in that first round,
Speaker 1: there's first second round. John thought he was the television
Speaker 1: John Gruden and exerted too much power and control and
Speaker 1: they had multiple major whiffs. Gruden, Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick,
Speaker 1: Mike Holmgren. Those are just four examples. The best way
Speaker 1: to do it is less Snead and the Rams and
Speaker 1: Sean McVay, where McVeigh has absolute say, but they really
Speaker 1: work collaboratively. They really work together very very well. Sean,
Speaker 1: if he does have the final say, is very respectful
Speaker 1: about it. But they're really committed to the process from
Speaker 1: beginning to end. And last year they had a sensational
Speaker 1: draft outside of Stetson Bennett, who had struggled, I think
Speaker 1: with some things personally and they're not sure if that's
Speaker 1: going to work. He was a fourth round pick, but
Speaker 1: they nailed their second round pick, two thirds, multiple fifths.
Speaker 1: It was a great draft for them, even picked up
Speaker 1: some guys late in the sixth and seventh round, so
Speaker 1: you know Belichick has got to read the room. His
Speaker 1: drafting record is atrocious and though Raheem Morris I probably
Speaker 1: would have gone to the offensive side, they just had
Speaker 1: an offensive coach and it didn't work. So there is
Speaker 1: a history in this league. Demiko Ryans is the latest.
Speaker 1: If you have a top defensive coach and a star
Speaker 1: quarterback in c. J. Stroud certainly emerged looks like a star,
Speaker 1: top six to seven quarterback, you can hoist trophies. I
Speaker 1: don't think defensive coaches are as good with marginal quarterback talent.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're good when they have a disruption
Speaker 1: at quarterback, a backup like a Gardner Minshew or a
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. Shane Stikeen and Kevin Stefanski hit it out
Speaker 1: of the park. But if you have a Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: or a Josh Allen or a c J. Stroud or
Speaker 1: Brady in his prime or Big Ben in his prime,
Speaker 1: I'm okay with defensive coaches. So if they nail, if
Speaker 1: they draft the third or the fourth quarterback and nail it,
Speaker 1: Raheem Morris will be a fine coach if they If
Speaker 1: they draft somebody and it doesn't hit and their marginal
Speaker 1: he'll probably struggle it is a weak division. But Belichick
Speaker 1: didn't get it. He didn't get the Chargers. Reportedly, Ben
Speaker 1: Johnson is a slam duncan Washington. To me, those were
Speaker 1: the three best jobs Carolina. Nope, that's taken too by
Speaker 1: a young coach. So and when you get older, Belichick,
Speaker 1: a year off is not an advantage, that's not necessarily
Speaker 1: an advantage. Sean Payton was seeing closer to his prime
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel seen as closer to his prime. Belichick is,
Speaker 1: and his draft record shows it. Allergic to offense, tone deaf, offensively,
Speaker 1: not building great staffs. He is not only past his prime,
Speaker 1: he's well past it. Just say that, all right. Chad Milman,
Speaker 1: CEO Action Network Sharper Square, all odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: So had I bet last week, I would have gone
Speaker 1: three and one. I had the bills. Shame on me,
Speaker 1: everything else, everything else, I was on the right side.
Speaker 2: Come on, come on, no, no, no, no, no, you don't
Speaker 2: get credit for had I bet. You either did or
Speaker 2: you didn't. Well, there is no try. There is do
Speaker 2: or do not. You didn't do anything last week. You
Speaker 2: watched some football, and maybe you were right about what
Speaker 2: you were thinking.
Speaker 1: Okay, so this week I love the picks. I think
Speaker 1: the lines are wrong this week. First of all, we
Speaker 1: are overvaluing the Chiefs because they played a completely decimated
Speaker 1: Miami defense in minus twenty seven degrees with a quarterback
Speaker 1: that can't throw the ball deep. And then they play
Speaker 1: an absolutely ravaged Bills defense missing six starters, so we're
Speaker 1: overvaluing who they are. Baltimore is a team that wrecked
Speaker 1: San Francisco, dominated Miami, destroy Detroit. You know my favorite
Speaker 1: number in this business, minus four. I think the Ravens
Speaker 1: roll Mahomes is hard to blow out, but I don't
Speaker 1: think they'll have success running it with Pacheco. Here comes
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphrey back to guard Rashi Rice. I think the
Speaker 1: Ravens are one of the best playoff bets, believe it
Speaker 1: or not. At minus four, Sharper square.
Speaker 2: So sharp that if you end up not betting it
Speaker 2: and then just thinking about betting it, doing yourself a disservice.
Speaker 2: It was sharp when it was minus three last Sunday.
Speaker 2: It was sharp when it was three and a half.
Speaker 2: It's still sharp at four. The wise guys love the
Speaker 2: Ravens in this game. It is a scary, scary bet,
Speaker 2: not because of what the Chiefs have done the past
Speaker 2: two weeks, and you're using the right terminology, they're overvalued
Speaker 2: based on their season long results. But it's still Patrick
Speaker 2: Mahomes man, and it's still Patrick Mahomes who's nine one
Speaker 2: and one in his career as an underdog, who's two
Speaker 2: and zero straight up in his career as an underdog,
Speaker 2: who's eight and three straight up in his career as
Speaker 2: an underdog. The reason why this bet is scary is
Speaker 2: because the idea of betting against Patrick Mahomes late in
Speaker 2: the game and he is stepping up in the pocket
Speaker 2: against a really good pass rush and you don't know
Speaker 2: where the ball is going yet because you can't see
Speaker 2: it on TV, and who's on the other end of it.
Speaker 2: You have no idea, but you're pretty sure it's going
Speaker 2: to be completed, and you're pretty sure it's going to
Speaker 2: be a long pass because someone was in single coverage
Speaker 2: and some receiver is wide open. That's the fear. So
Speaker 2: you're right. Sharp's are on it. Sharp's love it defense
Speaker 2: is dominating for Baltimore, and they're rush offense will destroy
Speaker 2: the Chiefs rush defense, and the Chiefs, by the way,
Speaker 2: missing Joe Toney, their offensive guard, who is one of
Speaker 2: the highest rated pass blocking guards according to Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 2: In every way, the Ravens should destroy the Chiefs, except
Speaker 2: the Chiefs have a cheek code and Patrick Mahomes. So
Speaker 2: I will tell you what I've done, which is only
Speaker 2: slightly less untoured and cowardly than claiming credit for Beth
Speaker 2: you didn't make. I bet the Ravens minus two and
Speaker 2: a half first half, all right, because I'm scared, because
Speaker 2: I'm afraid of Patrick Mahomes. But every otherwise guy is
Speaker 2: piling in on the Ravens, and there I agree with
Speaker 2: you one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: All right. I like the Lions plus seven and a half.
Speaker 1: So if you take I do this with big games.
Speaker 1: I take the top ten players and then the top fifteen.
Speaker 1: The Lions are stacked. I have eight seven Lions, eight
Speaker 1: players to seven for the Niners. Now top five McCaffrey, Bosa,
Speaker 1: Trent Williams. But when you start extrapolating from the fourth
Speaker 1: best player, and it's Pine sul and it's Hutcheson, and
Speaker 1: it's Homoran Saint Brown, and it's Jared Goff's the better quarterback.
Speaker 1: The weather's not a factor. We know This is a
Speaker 1: team that doesn't play well and windy or cold. Weather
Speaker 1: going to be sixty seven degrees, it's going to be dry,
Speaker 1: There's going to be no wind. Jared Goff played plenty
Speaker 1: of outdoor games in the Bay Area. He's fine. This
Speaker 1: offensive line's better. The Niners offensive line center right is
Speaker 1: actually one of the weak spots on the team. Neither
Speaker 1: team has a great secondary. What concerns me about San
Speaker 1: Francisco The names are bigger than the production up front. Defensively,
Speaker 1: their rush has been hit and miss over the last
Speaker 1: six seven weeks. Bosa absolutely, Chase Young, meh, you're not
Speaker 1: getting the names right now. It's like a hotel chain
Speaker 1: you went to when you were a kid. You go
Speaker 1: about ten years later and you're like, it's kind of
Speaker 1: an average hotel. Well, the name is bigger than the property,
Speaker 1: right You've seen that with golf courses, hotels. I think
Speaker 1: right now I can't unsee the Ravens crushing them or
Speaker 1: the Packers out playing them. I think Detroit matches up,
Speaker 1: may not win. I think seven and a half. I
Speaker 1: think the numbers should be closer to six five and
Speaker 1: a half. I'm taking the lion Sharper square.
Speaker 2: So the wise guys have been on the Niners. It's
Speaker 2: one of the reasons why this number is moving. In fact,
Speaker 2: it's a really interesting stat Then, the Lions are a
Speaker 2: huge liability for the sportsbooks this weekend, not because there's
Speaker 2: so many people on the Lions. At plus seven and
Speaker 2: a half, there's forty four percent of the money according
Speaker 2: to our tracking on the Lions money line. Like people
Speaker 2: are just piling on the Lions to win this game
Speaker 2: out right, more than they like the Lions to actually
Speaker 2: cover the spread. But the wise guys have been on
Speaker 2: the Niners, and there's a couple factors in play. You
Speaker 2: cannot discount how bad this Lion's secondary is, right, look
Speaker 2: at what they've given up to players like Nick Mullins
Speaker 2: multiple four hundred or near four hundred yard games, Baker
Speaker 2: Mayfield more than three to fifty, Matthew Stafford more than
Speaker 2: three point fifty. Brock Purty. There should be no bashing
Speaker 2: of brock Purty. All the guy has done in a
Speaker 2: season and a half is starting is lead his team
Speaker 2: to two different NFC title games, lead the league in
Speaker 2: passing yards, and be as effective and efficient as any quarterback.
Speaker 2: Kyle Shannon's Shanahan has had and he's the reason why
Speaker 2: he is closer to winning a Super Bowl than he
Speaker 2: has ever been. This is a much better team than
Speaker 2: the Lions across the board, and there's a real big
Speaker 2: factor I think for the Lions their offensive line. Jonah
Speaker 2: Jackson isn't going to be playing in this game. When
Speaker 2: Jonah Jackson played this past week against a heavy blitz
Speaker 2: from the Buccaneers, zero pressures in any of his snaps,
Speaker 2: he goes out at the end of the game seven
Speaker 2: pressures in eighteen snaps given up by his replacement, Jared
Speaker 2: Goff getting pressure up the middle when he cannot step
Speaker 2: up is not the same quarterback no matter what the
Speaker 2: conditions are. So wise guys are back in the Niners.
Speaker 2: Here also the X factor, it's Deebo Samuel. Look when
Speaker 2: the Niners have Deebo Samuel twelve and one this year,
Speaker 2: winning games by an average of eighteen points per game.
Speaker 2: There's one game when they did not win by double digits.
Speaker 2: That was Week two on the road at the Rams
Speaker 2: A Division game they only won by seven. Deebo is
Speaker 2: a complete game changer, and I am checking Debo's availability
Speaker 2: because I already bet the Niners minus six and a half.
Speaker 2: I am checking his availability NonStop, and he's still fifty
Speaker 2: to fifty progress. But in pain. He's a major major
Speaker 2: factor for this game. So even without debo, the wise
Speaker 2: guys have betting the Niners with debo, I think you'll
Speaker 2: see this number skyrocket.
Speaker 1: By the way, he does get a break played on Saturday. Now,
Speaker 1: this game's on Sunday, so you get another twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: and we know with surgery or injuries, twenty four hours
Speaker 1: is a long time. I want to ask you about
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh. So it was funny. I was in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: You know they call it the city of Angels. I've
Speaker 1: heard that, yes, and Harbaugh's no angel But it was
Speaker 1: non stop, wall to wall coverage of Harbaugh in Los Angeles,
Speaker 1: the second biggest city in the country. And I said
Speaker 1: to somebody that I know that's close to the Chargers,
Speaker 1: I said, you guys probably made about six million dollars
Speaker 1: yesterday in coverage. It was wall It led every newscast.
Speaker 1: I mean, it was the story in LA. And then
Speaker 1: the Chargers have fifty one thousand season tickets. If they
Speaker 1: can get to about fifty seven five, which they could
Speaker 1: probably sell the stadium out now with Herbert and Harbaugh,
Speaker 1: but they don't want to because as a war mother city,
Speaker 1: they want the Denvers and Kansas cities to come in
Speaker 1: and to be able to elevate the prices based on
Speaker 1: how hot and how big the game is. So if
Speaker 1: they get to like fifty seven fifty eight thousand season tickets,
Speaker 1: that extra six thousand plus all the publicity you get,
Speaker 1: you kind of pay for Harbaught twenty million bucks a year.
Speaker 1: So Harbaught not that he's a bargain, but this feels
Speaker 1: like seven of the twelve losses for the Chargers were
Speaker 1: three or less significantly more than the league. So this
Speaker 1: is not a rebuild like Houston. This is like a
Speaker 1: five win team that could win eleven And it feels
Speaker 1: totally reasonable. Where would you put the over under if
Speaker 1: you had to? If you I thought to myself, am
Speaker 1: I nuts? It's ten? Am I nuts?
Speaker 2: So it's funny you say that, Hey, I love the
Speaker 2: way you're thinking about the economics of this deal. It's
Speaker 2: not that dissimilar. Remember when ESPN went out and signed
Speaker 2: Tory Aigman and Joe Buck for eight figure yearly contracts.
Speaker 2: Everyone's like, what are they doing. Meanwhile, it puts him
Speaker 2: in better with the NFL. They get better games, the
Speaker 2: AD rates go up, they sell commercial time, the ratings
Speaker 2: go up. Those deals were paid for in one game. Right.
Speaker 2: You just made the same point with Harbaugh. It doesn't
Speaker 2: matter what they pay him. They were going to pay
Speaker 2: for it in some way, shape or form by the
Speaker 2: publicity they were getting in the attention they were getting.
Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, it's going to be such
Speaker 2: a better product on the field. He is a game
Speaker 2: changing coach. He has been that way everywhere he has gone.
Speaker 2: What he does is drive the people that he works
Speaker 2: for crazy, and that's when he ends up burning out
Speaker 2: his welcome. But he will have this team ready to
Speaker 2: be very competitive and be a contender in the AFC
Speaker 2: very very quickly. When you were asking win total, my
Speaker 2: first instinct was nine, and you're saying ten. I could
Speaker 2: see it at ten because bookmakers might feel like they
Speaker 2: can take advantage of the public and set it a
Speaker 2: little bit higher because they can say, all right, Jim
Speaker 2: Harbaugh is getting so much attention, we know they're going
Speaker 2: to want to bet the over no matter what it is.
Speaker 2: So let's set it at ten, and let's see what
Speaker 2: we can sort of get in terms of some soccer money.
Speaker 2: But I would not bet against Jim Harbaugh. I love
Speaker 2: the guy, love the guy as a coach. I think
Speaker 2: he's amazing.
Speaker 1: So the public could do very well if Detroit wins.
Speaker 1: But the public had a very good year betting. I
Speaker 1: want to circle back to one of my theories on
Speaker 1: this because I had a very good year betting, and
Speaker 1: it took me about four weeks to figure it out.
Speaker 1: But I was overthinking the room. And I've done this
Speaker 1: in the AFC playoffs where I'm five and zero, basically
Speaker 1: picking the best quarterback. I took Stroud over Flacco. The
Speaker 1: Sharps like Flacco, and I'm taking golf to cover against Purdy.
Speaker 1: In fact, I took Love over Purdy and he outplayed them.
Speaker 1: Is that is do you believe now on a macro
Speaker 1: level that some I mean, you'll tweak everything you do
Speaker 1: because you're a professional gambler. But there is a dynamic
Speaker 1: now that has to be considered. The young quarterback that
Speaker 1: come in, if they've got two years starting and all
Speaker 1: those camps and the new culture. It's a cottage industry quarterback.
Speaker 1: They're better, faster, the coaching's better, and increasingly there's more
Speaker 1: offensive coaches, and that the best quarterback. It's hard, harder
Speaker 1: than it's ever been to bet against them because I
Speaker 1: find myself a default. In fact, a prime example, I
Speaker 1: took Kyler Murray several times. I didn't think Arizona was better,
Speaker 1: but like against Philadelphia, I'm like, Jalen's struggling. He may
Speaker 1: be better than Kyler, but Kyler's healthy, rested. I'm taking Kyler.
Speaker 1: Will you tweak over the course of a season seeing
Speaker 1: these trends which appear to be substantial, it may only
Speaker 1: be a half point to a point. But one of
Speaker 1: the teams I didn't bet this year that a lot
Speaker 1: of people did was the Colts because I just couldn't
Speaker 1: buy any Gardner Minshew as much as I like Shane Steiken.
Speaker 1: Your takeawa sort of my rambling here about this changing.
Speaker 1: It feels like the league is slightly changing for betting.
Speaker 2: So there's there's three different things that I want to
Speaker 2: pick out of that. Number one great year for the
Speaker 2: public favorites were winning at an unprecedented clip. And if
Speaker 2: you're like me and you like to play underdogs, and
Speaker 2: you find value in the underdogs, and When you model
Speaker 2: these things, you're playing on the idea that bookmakers are
Speaker 2: going to overvalue favorites because that's where they can expect
Speaker 2: the public to come in. So they're going to give
Speaker 2: you an advantage. This year it didn't matter as much, right,
Speaker 2: So that's number one. Do I think that's a trend?
Speaker 2: Do I think that there's going to be regression for that?
Speaker 2: My guess is there will be a regression. There are
Speaker 2: some things that are irrefutable when it comes to betting.
Speaker 2: Regression is irrefutable, right number one. Number two the quarterbacks betting,
Speaker 2: And we've talked about this a lot this week on
Speaker 2: my podcast because the Chiefs and the Ravens are a
Speaker 2: perfect example of trying to figure out when you are betting,
Speaker 2: how to ride the wave and then get off the
Speaker 2: wave before it crests. Historically, you look at Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: terrible as a favorite of more than three and a
Speaker 2: half or more, Patrick Mahomes amazing as an underdog of
Speaker 2: three or any number. Right, So last week we were
Speaker 2: betting on the Texans because we felt like Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: hasn't proven it yet. We were betting on the Chiefs
Speaker 2: because we felt like we were betting against the Chiefs
Speaker 2: because we felt like at two and a half the
Speaker 2: Bills were the right side and Patrick Mahomes' time has
Speaker 2: passed because this team isn't as good. Missed on both
Speaker 2: counts because the wave went one way and we were
Speaker 2: expecting it could to go a different way with the Ravens,
Speaker 2: and the wave went one way and we were expecting
Speaker 2: it to stay the same with the Chiefs. And so
Speaker 2: this week trying to thread that needle. Are we betting
Speaker 2: on Lamar Jackson? Do we think he's over the hump
Speaker 2: on the stressful situations and choking in the playoffs? Are
Speaker 2: we betting on Patrick Mahomes because what we've seen out
Speaker 2: of him, no matter what his team has been, has
Speaker 2: been so good so often. That is the biggest challenge,
Speaker 2: and adjusting that it's really really hard, and this is
Speaker 2: a game where you sort of measure it.
Speaker 1: The reason I'm taking Lamar over Mahomes, I consider Mahomes better,
Speaker 1: but as I told you circumstantially with Kyler Murray, I
Speaker 1: believe Lamar is at home with better protection and significantly
Speaker 1: better weapons. So it's not just who's better circumstances, whether
Speaker 1: where's the game, what are your weapons. I think with
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphreys coming back taking on Rashi Rice, you're not
Speaker 1: going to run much on Baltimore. I think Mahomes is
Speaker 1: going to be very frustrated in this game at times.
Speaker 1: And I think Lamar, I think Jay Flowers Mark Andrews back,
Speaker 1: he'sa Flowers has been. I mean just a seminal change
Speaker 1: in his career. I mean Lamar has He's got his
Speaker 1: you know, Stafford is Cooper Cup, He's got his safety valve.
Speaker 1: He never had one. It was a tight end. So
Speaker 1: in that instance, I like Lamar because I think he'll
Speaker 1: be the better quarterback in this game. I think Goff
Speaker 1: will have better protection, better protection, and I'm betting that
Speaker 1: Debo doesn't play much, so that Golf will be the
Speaker 1: better quarterback in this game. May not win, but I
Speaker 1: don't think you're getting forty eight snaps from Debo. I
Speaker 1: think you're getting eighteen. And therefore, I like the weaponry
Speaker 1: of amor on Saint Brown, Laporta, Gibbs, Montgomery, and he'll
Speaker 1: have better protection. So in this instance, I believe I
Speaker 1: am taking well, GoF is better than Perty is a
Speaker 1: natural thrower. I'm taking the better quarterback circumstantially and what
Speaker 1: he's surrounded by. So that's why I'm taking my pick.
Speaker 1: So again this is the classic. I know that Malms
Speaker 1: is better than Lamar. I don't think he's got great
Speaker 1: protection this year. Now he's not getting sacked much because
Speaker 1: he's very nimble. This Baltimore front is this is the
Speaker 1: best linebacking crew in football. It's this front seven is
Speaker 1: really athletic and really twitchy for big athletes, and I
Speaker 1: think he's going to be under some dress.
Speaker 2: So to your point about the quarterbacks, it's a little
Speaker 2: bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, yes, because the better
Speaker 2: quarterback is almost always on the better team, and so
Speaker 2: if you want to bet on the better quarterback, they're
Speaker 2: almost always going to be on the favorite. And this
Speaker 2: year the favors were winning at a larger clip than
Speaker 2: they ever have before. So the real test to your theory,
Speaker 2: and this is what's interesting about betting, is you don't
Speaker 2: bet for the week. You bet for your life, right,
Speaker 2: and how did you do this year? How did you
Speaker 2: do the next year? How do you do the year
Speaker 2: after that? Does that trend continue to hold? It's why
Speaker 2: trends can be an interesting compliment to anything you're doing.
Speaker 2: When you're talking about betting, we're talking about what's happening
Speaker 2: on the field. That's really important. A trend is a
Speaker 2: good compliment to anything you're thinking about in the field.
Speaker 2: It's not the re and you make the bet. So
Speaker 2: well the Kylin Cowhard good quarterback theory hold up next year.
Speaker 2: That's when we start to know if that's really something
Speaker 2: that is sustainable. As for the game, I think what
Speaker 2: you're saying about the Chiefs offensive line is critical. I
Speaker 2: think the middle of the field for the Chiefs in
Speaker 2: this game against the Ravens defense is critical. The Chiefs
Speaker 2: are not an explosive offense at all. If Marlin Humphrey
Speaker 2: is back like you say, and he is locking up
Speaker 2: or she rice, which is what the expectation is. The
Speaker 2: Ravens are not the Bills who are starting aj Klein.
Speaker 2: They are not the Dolphins who are decimated at every
Speaker 2: level of their defense. They are Patrick Queen. They are
Speaker 2: Rokwan Smith defending the middle of the field, who can
Speaker 2: do wonders when they're patrolling that middle of the field.
Speaker 2: And as we said before, Joe Toney offensive guard for
Speaker 2: the Chiefs and not going to be playing that also
Speaker 2: will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to step up
Speaker 2: into the pocket. There's nothing scarier for a quarterback than
Speaker 2: not being able to step up right to roll out.
Speaker 2: They like to be able to step up against pressure
Speaker 2: that is coming in from the edges. I think that's
Speaker 2: going to be a real handicap for Patrick Mahomes in
Speaker 2: this game. So I completely agree with your theory on
Speaker 2: why you like the Ravens and why Lamar could be
Speaker 2: the better quarterback in this game. That's why the Sharps
Speaker 2: believe it too.
Speaker 1: Well. Hey, before, I don't watch any streaming during the
Speaker 1: football season, and then once the football season ends, I'll
Speaker 1: commit to a few Netflix shows. I've peeled back. I
Speaker 1: have Amazon for football and Netflix for my wife. I've
Speaker 1: peeled way back on this stuff. I think these streaming
Speaker 1: services are I like sports, I like news, I like politics.
Speaker 1: It's all on TV. But give me one series, one
Speaker 1: streaming series now. As I segue, probably in about a week,
Speaker 1: as I move toward an occasional streaming show, do you
Speaker 1: and your wife have one? I should be aware of.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Colin, we have so many. And I
Speaker 2: love how you're being with the streamers. I know you're
Speaker 2: saving up. I know you got a lot of big plans.
Speaker 1: Hey, you just got I got a bile Southwest Airlines
Speaker 1: and Spirit Airlines tickets.
Speaker 2: I understand. So I'm gonna I'm gonna give you three okay.
Speaker 2: Number One, If you're not watching The Bear, which is
Speaker 2: on Hulu slash FX, okay, then you are missing out
Speaker 2: on one of the best shows of the past twenty years.
Speaker 2: This is a show. Now, granted, I'm a Chicago guy
Speaker 2: and this is a Chicago show to culinary culinary show.
Speaker 2: It just swept the Emmys right. Every single morning I
Speaker 2: am watching a clip from The Bear on YouTube. I
Speaker 2: go onto YouTube. I want to see, hey, how do
Speaker 2: we do overnight in our clips and everything else? And
Speaker 2: before I get there, The Bear is all over my
Speaker 2: home feed. It is so brilliant, Colin. It is the
Speaker 2: only show that has ever come out where I waited
Speaker 2: long after the premiere of the second season because I
Speaker 2: knew the second I started the show, every second I
Speaker 2: watching it was a second closer to being over. It
Speaker 2: is a unbelievably enriching experience. Number two, Listen, you have fine,
Speaker 2: fine tastes. I'm gonna give you a show that was
Speaker 2: really interesting. It's called Drops of God Apple TV. I
Speaker 2: don't know if you want to pony up for Apple
Speaker 2: TV plus Drops a god fascinating show about a guy
Speaker 2: who had the most expensive fiction, the most expensive wine
Speaker 2: collection in the world, A real terrible person as a
Speaker 2: human being, and a father leaves the wine collection to
Speaker 2: his daughter and one of his proteges, but they have
Speaker 2: to answer like all these questions almost go through like
Speaker 2: a contest to see who's going to get it. And
Speaker 2: it is dramatic. It makes you want to drink a
Speaker 2: bottle of wine every time you're sitting down to watch it.
Speaker 2: I freaking loved it. Finally, I'll tell you Season five
Speaker 2: of far Ago John Hamm Juno Temple a amazing.
Speaker 1: Okay, my wife said Jody Foster True Detective may be
Speaker 1: worth watching, thoughts haven't.
Speaker 2: I would watch it huge. Jody Foster fan loved the
Speaker 2: first season A True Detective. Haven't watched it since the
Speaker 2: Vince Vaughan You're at the season I didn't love and
Speaker 2: so I would pick it. I would pick it back
Speaker 2: up for sure.
Speaker 1: You know Vince Vonder works out at my gym. He's
Speaker 1: much bigger in person than you'd.
Speaker 2: Think tall guy. Another Chicago guy.
Speaker 1: He's a Chicago guy.
Speaker 2: He is very tall guy. Loves sports games, a lot
Speaker 2: of games. Is he stacking weights? Do you judge it?
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't judge. I myself am more of
Speaker 1: a repetition guy than a stack weights guy. I just
Speaker 1: want to be, you know, sort of tight, as I say,
Speaker 1: I've had a beautiful wife, and I have to be
Speaker 1: at my you know, it's got to be at my best.
Speaker 1: I gotta look tight. I'm not worried about being the
Speaker 1: biggest guy. I'm not going to be.
Speaker 2: Your wife is beautiful. Your wife is beautiful. As we've discussed,
Speaker 2: my wifs kind of look alike. My wife also has
Speaker 2: red hair. They're both in the architecture and design space.
Speaker 2: Last night, I feel like you can appreciate this. Last
Speaker 2: night I was in the kitchen and my wife asked
Speaker 2: me a question and I answered with a joke, kind
Speaker 2: of one of two or three jokes I've said, probably
Speaker 2: for the twenty something years we've been together. She looks
Speaker 2: at me with all seriousness. She goes, look, if things
Speaker 2: go well, you and I are going to be together
Speaker 2: for another thirty something years. Micah, Huh. She goes, you
Speaker 2: need to get some new material. So now I'm working
Speaker 2: on it. I got to think of some new jokes
Speaker 2: for the next thirty years of my life. If things
Speaker 2: go by the way, if things go.
Speaker 1: Well, well, she's worth keeping. My wife has an amazing
Speaker 1: quality and I have no idea how she does it.
Speaker 1: So if somebody tells me a funny joke, I will
Speaker 1: walk up to a stranger within five minutes and tell
Speaker 1: them because I can't keep it to myself. I want
Speaker 1: to get a laugh. I want to perform and get
Speaker 1: a laugh. Of course can't. My wife cannot only keep
Speaker 1: a joke for twenty years. I've been with her seventeen years.
Speaker 1: And she will deliver the line or the joke at
Speaker 1: the perfect time, and I'll go, how long have you
Speaker 1: had that? She goes, oh god, I heard that in college.
Speaker 1: I'm like, you stored that for sixteen years. And it's
Speaker 1: not just jokes. She'll have a line. And she dropped
Speaker 1: one the other day, one of the lines she dropped
Speaker 1: years and years ago. We had just gotten married. And
Speaker 1: you know, I'm feisty, little rascible, feisty, and I was
Speaker 1: just in one of my moods and I said you
Speaker 1: know this, nobody, nobody that's balanced is happy. I said,
Speaker 1: is Peyton Manning balanced? Was Michael Jordan? Balanced? Passion is
Speaker 1: what makes people happy, finding something, falling in love with it,
Speaker 1: kicking ass. Those are happy people. Not the web designer,
Speaker 1: ski instructor, poet, barista. That guy's not happy. He's searching
Speaker 1: his whole life. Well, he's balanced. And she goes, honey,
Speaker 1: she touched me on the shoulder. You're balanced. You have
Speaker 1: a chip on both shoulders.
Speaker 2: Oh man, that is good.
Speaker 1: And I was like, you saved that for twelve years.
Speaker 1: So the other day we were talking about the volume
Speaker 1: and the growth of it, and you know, she I'm
Speaker 1: always interested in her opinion on it. And you know,
Speaker 1: I said, I you know, I'm I'm I'm proud of this, this, this,
Speaker 1: And she goes, honey, it's okay to look at success.
Speaker 1: Don't stare at it. And I wow, wow. And I
Speaker 1: was like she was basically saying, stop patting yourself on
Speaker 1: the back.
Speaker 2: Yeah, do the next thing, one step every day forever.
Speaker 1: Fled.
Speaker 2: I was just like that, that's amazing.
Speaker 1: It's a great quality.
Speaker 2: It is. I feel like and maybe this is a
Speaker 2: trait that balances couples like you. I my The success
Speaker 2: of an evening for me is judged by laughs per
Speaker 2: minute from things I said, And so at the end
Speaker 2: of the night, it was a great night with another
Speaker 2: couple if the other couple laughed at a lot of
Speaker 2: the things that I said. My wife will say all
Speaker 2: of the things that she thinks really matter. I'll say,
Speaker 2: I'm going for volume. She is going for a very specific,
Speaker 2: calibrated comment that everyone's going to remember. I think I
Speaker 2: think we married the same woman.
Speaker 1: It's it's I marvel at it.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: It would be like if you're a baseball pitcher and
Speaker 1: you had the best pitch and you were facing the
Speaker 1: Dodgers and you only used it twice against Mookie Bets
Speaker 1: and only in the later innings, and he'd be like,
Speaker 1: why don't you use that thing in the first inning.
Speaker 1: You're like, well, I don't want to show too much
Speaker 1: of it. I'm gonna use it like twice a game.
Speaker 1: And you're like, the game was tied in the third,
Speaker 1: it was tied in the fifth, you only used it
Speaker 1: in the eighth, And you were like, well, it was
Speaker 1: a high leverage situation. I thought that's the time to
Speaker 1: use it. They'd be like, I can't. I can't do that.
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not capable of saying I've got this
Speaker 1: great gift, I'll hold off of it for twenty years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna wait. I need to be expressing what
Speaker 2: I believe my full potential is at all times.
Speaker 1: I'm like, because if.
Speaker 2: I'm not Colin, if I'm not I'm not sharing my
Speaker 2: gift with the world. Yeah, what am I doing? Then?
Speaker 1: I feel like the minute I get a funny joke,
Speaker 1: I'm in the catskills and I'm Scheky Green, I've got
Speaker 1: to let it go.
Speaker 2: And you're wasting your life if you're not doing that.
Speaker 2: I know. All right, all right man, good stuff, buddy,
Speaker 2: Good luck to you this weekend. Talk to you later.
Speaker 2: The volume