1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: The volume all right before we start on my rant 2 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: on Jim Harbaugh. If you want to grab your phone, 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,120 Speaker 1: download the game Time app. Takes less than ninety seconds. 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: If you want to go to a championship game, you 5 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: download the app. Game Time App. Use the code column. 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: The redeem code colin coli in twenty bucks off your 7 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: first purchase. Pretty good deal, right, game Time's fast easy, comedy, concerts, 8 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 1: sporting events, theater and more. Game Time has deals right 9 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: up to the event and in fact an hour after 10 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: the event starts. The game Time App guarantees the best 11 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: price you'll find tickets. Let's say in the same section, 12 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,279 Speaker 1: same row, and it's the same price. Game Time will 13 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:47,959 Speaker 1: credit you one hundred and ten percent the difference. Download 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 1: the game Time App, create an account. The redeem code 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: is colin coli in for twenty dollars off the first purchase. 16 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Create an account, redeem code colin. Download 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: the game Time App today last minute tickets loess price 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: is guaranteed. Hi, everybody, welcome in very funny Sharper Square 19 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: with Chad Millman. We're talking to Ravens, Chiefs, lions, Niners. 20 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: Want to address a couple things Falcons did not hire 21 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: Bill Belichick, who I thought, if he wanted personnel control, 22 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: was one of the weaker candidates. I'm not interested in that. 23 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: They hired Raey Morris. So Raheem was a coach and 24 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: Tampa didn't work. Was a great assistant after Brandon Staley 25 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: left for the Rams, became mcveigh's best friend on the 26 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 1: staff and did very, very well with a really young defense. 27 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: Morris is one of those guys like Demiko Ryans or 28 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: Sean McVay. Very impressive in person, kind of you know, 29 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: just a guy, eye contact, really smart point of view. 30 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: So Raheem interviews very well. I've been told that numerous occasions. 31 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: Probably I would have gone after maybe a Mike Rabel again, 32 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 1: defensive coach. They don't have a quarterback. But I think 33 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: this is what Belichick is falling into, is that it's 34 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: really funny that Bill doesn't really have any vulnerability, Like 35 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: Bill's gonna do what Bill wants to do. That's why 36 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: he's got his kids on the staff and he hires 37 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: coaches who are He had a very weak staff, multiple 38 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: fired guys in New England, so you know Bill wants 39 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: more control than Arthur Blank and Rich McKay are willing 40 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: to give, and had Bill read the room, he would 41 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: have known that Arthur Blank has never hired a big 42 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: time head coach. He's always given it to up and 43 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: coming coaches who don't feel like they have to own 44 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: the room. Blank's a brilliant businessman. Rich McKay is excellent 45 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: with operations and certainly knows talent. Terry Fontineau from the 46 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: Saints is a smart guy that's well thought of around 47 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: the league. I mean he's not you know, we don't 48 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: look at him quite as a less Snead maybe yet, 49 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: or a Mickey Loomis in New Orleans yet, or a 50 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: Howie Roseman or a Brett Veach. But he is well 51 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 1: thought of. But I think Belichick the thing that worries 52 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,239 Speaker 1: you if you're Atlanta. He's a milestone guy. Is he 53 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,959 Speaker 1: really care about Atlanta? Never? Never, never coached really, I 54 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: mean head coach in Cleveland, then in New England, he 55 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: didn't know much about the NFC South. He has drafted 56 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: fifteen quarterbacks, one star Brady, one starter Garoppolo, two to 57 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: three capable backups, and ten misses. So I think Bill 58 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: was going up against recent history in Atlanta, where they're 59 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: going to take a Dan Quinn. They're going to take 60 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: a Raheem Morris. They're going to take a young, up 61 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: and coming assistant that's not going to need to dominate personnel. 62 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: And I'll be honest with you, the Seahawks' last two 63 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: drafts have been much stronger when John Snyder was empowered 64 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: by ownership and controlled the drafts. Pete in a vacuum 65 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: in Seattle when Paul Allen died, had a lot of power. 66 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: It frustrated John Snyder, who went and sought the Detroit 67 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: Lions job, got a raised. They brought him back to Seattle, 68 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: and there were some assurances that he would have more 69 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: control in the draft. I have it on two different 70 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: sources who I trust implicitly is that Pete would sometimes 71 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: have a very strong opinion and it would sway the 72 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 1: Seahawks rafts. And for years in a year, I was 73 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: told this for years by people in the league. I 74 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: respected that Seahawks drafts were unpredictable. Now, Pete's were very 75 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: good when he came out out of college out of 76 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: USC at a two or three year run where they're excellent. 77 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 1: But like most pro coaches, he's not sitting around watching 78 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 1: college football all Saturday. He's looking at NFL stuff, in 79 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: at NFL personnel, in film. And I thought Seattle's drafts 80 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: got much better in the last couple of years when 81 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: John Snyder exerted more power. I think Belichick's last seven 82 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: drafts have mostly been absolutely abysmal. Why again, I have 83 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: it sourced for multiple people that as he started stacking 84 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: rings and net worth and power, he was more difficult 85 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: for Brady to deal with. And he told mid January 86 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 1: the draft department, the scouts, I got it from here. 87 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: It's hard to find any hits in the last seven drafts. 88 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: On the offensive side, they've had two Pro bowlers, one's 89 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 1: a punter. So I don't think coach. I remember when 90 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: Mike Hoggan was in Seattle years ago, great coach, he 91 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: had a little bit too much power. When he first 92 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: started in Seattle, he struggled with a couple of early drafts. 93 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: You're asking drafting is hard enough for great gms. Howie 94 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: Roseman has had huge whiffs, and how he's brilliant and 95 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: completely dedicated. So the idea that Bill Belichick, any of 96 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: these coaches want over fifty percent power. John Gruden, by 97 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: the way, with the Raiders, had the final say with 98 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: Mike Mayock. I know that because it's sourced. Go look 99 00:05:55,760 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: at the Raiders' first round picks. In later rounds, Ruden 100 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: would let Mayock have more control. But in that first round, 101 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: there's first second round. John thought he was the television 102 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: John Gruden and exerted too much power and control and 103 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: they had multiple major whiffs. Gruden, Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, 104 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: Mike Holmgren. Those are just four examples. The best way 105 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: to do it is less Snead and the Rams and 106 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: Sean McVay, where McVeigh has absolute say, but they really 107 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: work collaboratively. They really work together very very well. Sean, 108 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 1: if he does have the final say, is very respectful 109 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: about it. But they're really committed to the process from 110 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: beginning to end. And last year they had a sensational 111 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: draft outside of Stetson Bennett, who had struggled, I think 112 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: with some things personally and they're not sure if that's 113 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: going to work. He was a fourth round pick, but 114 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 1: they nailed their second round pick, two thirds, multiple fifths. 115 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: It was a great draft for them, even picked up 116 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: some guys late in the sixth and seventh round, so 117 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,039 Speaker 1: you know Belichick has got to read the room. His 118 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: drafting record is atrocious and though Raheem Morris I probably 119 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: would have gone to the offensive side, they just had 120 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: an offensive coach and it didn't work. So there is 121 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: a history in this league. Demiko Ryans is the latest. 122 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: If you have a top defensive coach and a star 123 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: quarterback in c. J. Stroud certainly emerged looks like a star, 124 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: top six to seven quarterback, you can hoist trophies. I 125 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: don't think defensive coaches are as good with marginal quarterback talent. 126 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: I don't think they're good when they have a disruption 127 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: at quarterback, a backup like a Gardner Minshew or a 128 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. Shane Stikeen and Kevin Stefanski hit it out 129 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: of the park. But if you have a Lamar Jackson 130 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: or a Josh Allen or a c J. Stroud or 131 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: Brady in his prime or Big Ben in his prime, 132 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: I'm okay with defensive coaches. So if they nail, if 133 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: they draft the third or the fourth quarterback and nail it, 134 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: Raheem Morris will be a fine coach if they If 135 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: they draft somebody and it doesn't hit and their marginal 136 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: he'll probably struggle it is a weak division. But Belichick 137 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: didn't get it. He didn't get the Chargers. Reportedly, Ben 138 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: Johnson is a slam duncan Washington. To me, those were 139 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: the three best jobs Carolina. Nope, that's taken too by 140 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 1: a young coach. So and when you get older, Belichick, 141 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: a year off is not an advantage, that's not necessarily 142 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: an advantage. Sean Payton was seeing closer to his prime 143 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: Mike Rabel seen as closer to his prime. Belichick is, 144 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: and his draft record shows it. Allergic to offense, tone deaf, offensively, 145 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 1: not building great staffs. He is not only past his prime, 146 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: he's well past it. Just say that, all right. Chad Milman, 147 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: CEO Action Network Sharper Square, all odds provided by DraftKings. 148 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: So had I bet last week, I would have gone 149 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 1: three and one. I had the bills. Shame on me, 150 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: everything else, everything else, I was on the right side. 151 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 2: Come on, come on, no, no, no, no, no, you don't 152 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 2: get credit for had I bet. You either did or 153 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: you didn't. Well, there is no try. There is do 154 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 2: or do not. You didn't do anything last week. You 155 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 2: watched some football, and maybe you were right about what 156 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 2: you were thinking. 157 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: Okay, so this week I love the picks. I think 158 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: the lines are wrong this week. First of all, we 159 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: are overvaluing the Chiefs because they played a completely decimated 160 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: Miami defense in minus twenty seven degrees with a quarterback 161 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: that can't throw the ball deep. And then they play 162 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,719 Speaker 1: an absolutely ravaged Bills defense missing six starters, so we're 163 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: overvaluing who they are. Baltimore is a team that wrecked 164 00:09:55,760 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: San Francisco, dominated Miami, destroy Detroit. You know my favorite 165 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: number in this business, minus four. I think the Ravens 166 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: roll Mahomes is hard to blow out, but I don't 167 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: think they'll have success running it with Pacheco. Here comes 168 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: Marlon Humphrey back to guard Rashi Rice. I think the 169 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: Ravens are one of the best playoff bets, believe it 170 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: or not. At minus four, Sharper square. 171 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 2: So sharp that if you end up not betting it 172 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 2: and then just thinking about betting it, doing yourself a disservice. 173 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 2: It was sharp when it was minus three last Sunday. 174 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 2: It was sharp when it was three and a half. 175 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 2: It's still sharp at four. The wise guys love the 176 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: Ravens in this game. It is a scary, scary bet, 177 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 2: not because of what the Chiefs have done the past 178 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 2: two weeks, and you're using the right terminology, they're overvalued 179 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 2: based on their season long results. But it's still Patrick 180 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 2: Mahomes man, and it's still Patrick Mahomes who's nine one 181 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: and one in his career as an underdog, who's two 182 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 2: and zero straight up in his career as an underdog, 183 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 2: who's eight and three straight up in his career as 184 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 2: an underdog. The reason why this bet is scary is 185 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 2: because the idea of betting against Patrick Mahomes late in 186 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 2: the game and he is stepping up in the pocket 187 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 2: against a really good pass rush and you don't know 188 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 2: where the ball is going yet because you can't see 189 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 2: it on TV, and who's on the other end of it. 190 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 2: You have no idea, but you're pretty sure it's going 191 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 2: to be completed, and you're pretty sure it's going to 192 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 2: be a long pass because someone was in single coverage 193 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 2: and some receiver is wide open. That's the fear. So 194 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 2: you're right. Sharp's are on it. Sharp's love it defense 195 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: is dominating for Baltimore, and they're rush offense will destroy 196 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 2: the Chiefs rush defense, and the Chiefs, by the way, 197 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 2: missing Joe Toney, their offensive guard, who is one of 198 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 2: the highest rated pass blocking guards according to Pro Football Focus. 199 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 2: In every way, the Ravens should destroy the Chiefs, except 200 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 2: the Chiefs have a cheek code and Patrick Mahomes. So 201 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 2: I will tell you what I've done, which is only 202 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 2: slightly less untoured and cowardly than claiming credit for Beth 203 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 2: you didn't make. I bet the Ravens minus two and 204 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 2: a half first half, all right, because I'm scared, because 205 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 2: I'm afraid of Patrick Mahomes. But every otherwise guy is 206 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 2: piling in on the Ravens, and there I agree with 207 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 2: you one hundred percent. 208 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: All right. I like the Lions plus seven and a half. 209 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: So if you take I do this with big games. 210 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: I take the top ten players and then the top fifteen. 211 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: The Lions are stacked. I have eight seven Lions, eight 212 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: players to seven for the Niners. Now top five McCaffrey, Bosa, 213 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: Trent Williams. But when you start extrapolating from the fourth 214 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,719 Speaker 1: best player, and it's Pine sul and it's Hutcheson, and 215 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 1: it's Homoran Saint Brown, and it's Jared Goff's the better quarterback. 216 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: The weather's not a factor. We know This is a 217 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: team that doesn't play well and windy or cold. Weather 218 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: going to be sixty seven degrees, it's going to be dry, 219 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,079 Speaker 1: There's going to be no wind. Jared Goff played plenty 220 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: of outdoor games in the Bay Area. He's fine. This 221 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: offensive line's better. The Niners offensive line center right is 222 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: actually one of the weak spots on the team. Neither 223 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 1: team has a great secondary. What concerns me about San 224 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: Francisco The names are bigger than the production up front. Defensively, 225 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 1: their rush has been hit and miss over the last 226 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: six seven weeks. Bosa absolutely, Chase Young, meh, you're not 227 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: getting the names right now. It's like a hotel chain 228 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: you went to when you were a kid. You go 229 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: about ten years later and you're like, it's kind of 230 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: an average hotel. Well, the name is bigger than the property, 231 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: right You've seen that with golf courses, hotels. I think 232 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: right now I can't unsee the Ravens crushing them or 233 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 1: the Packers out playing them. I think Detroit matches up, 234 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: may not win. I think seven and a half. I 235 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: think the numbers should be closer to six five and 236 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: a half. I'm taking the lion Sharper square. 237 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 2: So the wise guys have been on the Niners. It's 238 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 2: one of the reasons why this number is moving. In fact, 239 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 2: it's a really interesting stat Then, the Lions are a 240 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 2: huge liability for the sportsbooks this weekend, not because there's 241 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 2: so many people on the Lions. At plus seven and 242 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 2: a half, there's forty four percent of the money according 243 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 2: to our tracking on the Lions money line. Like people 244 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 2: are just piling on the Lions to win this game 245 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: out right, more than they like the Lions to actually 246 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 2: cover the spread. But the wise guys have been on 247 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 2: the Niners, and there's a couple factors in play. You 248 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 2: cannot discount how bad this Lion's secondary is, right, look 249 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: at what they've given up to players like Nick Mullins 250 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 2: multiple four hundred or near four hundred yard games, Baker 251 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 2: Mayfield more than three to fifty, Matthew Stafford more than 252 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: three point fifty. Brock Purty. There should be no bashing 253 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 2: of brock Purty. All the guy has done in a 254 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 2: season and a half is starting is lead his team 255 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 2: to two different NFC title games, lead the league in 256 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 2: passing yards, and be as effective and efficient as any quarterback. 257 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 2: Kyle Shannon's Shanahan has had and he's the reason why 258 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 2: he is closer to winning a Super Bowl than he 259 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 2: has ever been. This is a much better team than 260 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 2: the Lions across the board, and there's a real big 261 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 2: factor I think for the Lions their offensive line. Jonah 262 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 2: Jackson isn't going to be playing in this game. When 263 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 2: Jonah Jackson played this past week against a heavy blitz 264 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 2: from the Buccaneers, zero pressures in any of his snaps, 265 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 2: he goes out at the end of the game seven 266 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 2: pressures in eighteen snaps given up by his replacement, Jared 267 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 2: Goff getting pressure up the middle when he cannot step 268 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: up is not the same quarterback no matter what the 269 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 2: conditions are. So wise guys are back in the Niners. 270 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 2: Here also the X factor, it's Deebo Samuel. Look when 271 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 2: the Niners have Deebo Samuel twelve and one this year, 272 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 2: winning games by an average of eighteen points per game. 273 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 2: There's one game when they did not win by double digits. 274 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 2: That was Week two on the road at the Rams 275 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 2: A Division game they only won by seven. Deebo is 276 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 2: a complete game changer, and I am checking Debo's availability 277 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 2: because I already bet the Niners minus six and a half. 278 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 2: I am checking his availability NonStop, and he's still fifty 279 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 2: to fifty progress. But in pain. He's a major major 280 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 2: factor for this game. So even without debo, the wise 281 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 2: guys have betting the Niners with debo, I think you'll 282 00:16:58,360 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 2: see this number skyrocket. 283 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: By the way, he does get a break played on Saturday. Now, 284 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: this game's on Sunday, so you get another twenty four hours, 285 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: and we know with surgery or injuries, twenty four hours 286 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: is a long time. I want to ask you about 287 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh. So it was funny. I was in Los Angeles. 288 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 1: You know they call it the city of Angels. I've 289 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:23,679 Speaker 1: heard that, yes, and Harbaugh's no angel But it was 290 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: non stop, wall to wall coverage of Harbaugh in Los Angeles, 291 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: the second biggest city in the country. And I said 292 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 1: to somebody that I know that's close to the Chargers, 293 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: I said, you guys probably made about six million dollars 294 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: yesterday in coverage. It was wall It led every newscast. 295 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,200 Speaker 1: I mean, it was the story in LA. And then 296 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,959 Speaker 1: the Chargers have fifty one thousand season tickets. If they 297 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: can get to about fifty seven five, which they could 298 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: probably sell the stadium out now with Herbert and Harbaugh, 299 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 1: but they don't want to because as a war mother city, 300 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: they want the Denvers and Kansas cities to come in 301 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 1: and to be able to elevate the prices based on 302 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: how hot and how big the game is. So if 303 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:04,479 Speaker 1: they get to like fifty seven fifty eight thousand season tickets, 304 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: that extra six thousand plus all the publicity you get, 305 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: you kind of pay for Harbaught twenty million bucks a year. 306 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 1: So Harbaught not that he's a bargain, but this feels 307 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 1: like seven of the twelve losses for the Chargers were 308 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: three or less significantly more than the league. So this 309 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,239 Speaker 1: is not a rebuild like Houston. This is like a 310 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 1: five win team that could win eleven And it feels 311 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 1: totally reasonable. Where would you put the over under if 312 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: you had to? If you I thought to myself, am 313 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: I nuts? It's ten? Am I nuts? 314 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 2: So it's funny you say that, Hey, I love the 315 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 2: way you're thinking about the economics of this deal. It's 316 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 2: not that dissimilar. Remember when ESPN went out and signed 317 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 2: Tory Aigman and Joe Buck for eight figure yearly contracts. 318 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,959 Speaker 2: Everyone's like, what are they doing. Meanwhile, it puts him 319 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 2: in better with the NFL. They get better games, the 320 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 2: AD rates go up, they sell commercial time, the ratings 321 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 2: go up. Those deals were paid for in one game. Right. 322 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 2: You just made the same point with Harbaugh. It doesn't 323 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 2: matter what they pay him. They were going to pay 324 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 2: for it in some way, shape or form by the 325 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 2: publicity they were getting in the attention they were getting. 326 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, it's going to be such 327 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 2: a better product on the field. He is a game 328 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:24,360 Speaker 2: changing coach. He has been that way everywhere he has gone. 329 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 2: What he does is drive the people that he works 330 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 2: for crazy, and that's when he ends up burning out 331 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 2: his welcome. But he will have this team ready to 332 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: be very competitive and be a contender in the AFC 333 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 2: very very quickly. When you were asking win total, my 334 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 2: first instinct was nine, and you're saying ten. I could 335 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 2: see it at ten because bookmakers might feel like they 336 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,959 Speaker 2: can take advantage of the public and set it a 337 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 2: little bit higher because they can say, all right, Jim 338 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 2: Harbaugh is getting so much attention, we know they're going 339 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:00,439 Speaker 2: to want to bet the over no matter what it is. 340 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 2: So let's set it at ten, and let's see what 341 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 2: we can sort of get in terms of some soccer money. 342 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 2: But I would not bet against Jim Harbaugh. I love 343 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 2: the guy, love the guy as a coach. I think 344 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 2: he's amazing. 345 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: So the public could do very well if Detroit wins. 346 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: But the public had a very good year betting. I 347 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: want to circle back to one of my theories on 348 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 1: this because I had a very good year betting, and 349 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: it took me about four weeks to figure it out. 350 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: But I was overthinking the room. And I've done this 351 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: in the AFC playoffs where I'm five and zero, basically 352 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: picking the best quarterback. I took Stroud over Flacco. The 353 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 1: Sharps like Flacco, and I'm taking golf to cover against Purdy. 354 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: In fact, I took Love over Purdy and he outplayed them. 355 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 1: Is that is do you believe now on a macro 356 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 1: level that some I mean, you'll tweak everything you do 357 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: because you're a professional gambler. But there is a dynamic 358 00:20:56,040 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: now that has to be considered. The young quarterback that 359 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: come in, if they've got two years starting and all 360 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 1: those camps and the new culture. It's a cottage industry quarterback. 361 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: They're better, faster, the coaching's better, and increasingly there's more 362 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: offensive coaches, and that the best quarterback. It's hard, harder 363 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: than it's ever been to bet against them because I 364 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: find myself a default. In fact, a prime example, I 365 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: took Kyler Murray several times. I didn't think Arizona was better, 366 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: but like against Philadelphia, I'm like, Jalen's struggling. He may 367 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: be better than Kyler, but Kyler's healthy, rested. I'm taking Kyler. 368 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: Will you tweak over the course of a season seeing 369 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 1: these trends which appear to be substantial, it may only 370 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: be a half point to a point. But one of 371 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: the teams I didn't bet this year that a lot 372 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: of people did was the Colts because I just couldn't 373 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: buy any Gardner Minshew as much as I like Shane Steiken. 374 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: Your takeawa sort of my rambling here about this changing. 375 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 1: It feels like the league is slightly changing for betting. 376 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: So there's there's three different things that I want to 377 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 2: pick out of that. Number one great year for the 378 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 2: public favorites were winning at an unprecedented clip. And if 379 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 2: you're like me and you like to play underdogs, and 380 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: you find value in the underdogs, and When you model 381 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 2: these things, you're playing on the idea that bookmakers are 382 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 2: going to overvalue favorites because that's where they can expect 383 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 2: the public to come in. So they're going to give 384 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 2: you an advantage. This year it didn't matter as much, right, 385 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,719 Speaker 2: So that's number one. Do I think that's a trend? 386 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 2: Do I think that there's going to be regression for that? 387 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 2: My guess is there will be a regression. There are 388 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 2: some things that are irrefutable when it comes to betting. 389 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 2: Regression is irrefutable, right number one. Number two the quarterbacks betting, 390 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 2: And we've talked about this a lot this week on 391 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 2: my podcast because the Chiefs and the Ravens are a 392 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:02,199 Speaker 2: perfect example of trying to figure out when you are betting, 393 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 2: how to ride the wave and then get off the 394 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 2: wave before it crests. Historically, you look at Lamar Jackson 395 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 2: terrible as a favorite of more than three and a 396 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 2: half or more, Patrick Mahomes amazing as an underdog of 397 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 2: three or any number. Right, So last week we were 398 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: betting on the Texans because we felt like Lamar Jackson 399 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 2: hasn't proven it yet. We were betting on the Chiefs 400 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 2: because we felt like we were betting against the Chiefs 401 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 2: because we felt like at two and a half the 402 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 2: Bills were the right side and Patrick Mahomes' time has 403 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,400 Speaker 2: passed because this team isn't as good. Missed on both 404 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 2: counts because the wave went one way and we were 405 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 2: expecting it could to go a different way with the Ravens, 406 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: and the wave went one way and we were expecting 407 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 2: it to stay the same with the Chiefs. And so 408 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 2: this week trying to thread that needle. Are we betting 409 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 2: on Lamar Jackson? Do we think he's over the hump 410 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 2: on the stressful situations and choking in the playoffs? Are 411 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 2: we betting on Patrick Mahomes because what we've seen out 412 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,200 Speaker 2: of him, no matter what his team has been, has 413 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 2: been so good so often. That is the biggest challenge, 414 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 2: and adjusting that it's really really hard, and this is 415 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 2: a game where you sort of measure it. 416 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 1: The reason I'm taking Lamar over Mahomes, I consider Mahomes better, 417 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 1: but as I told you circumstantially with Kyler Murray, I 418 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 1: believe Lamar is at home with better protection and significantly 419 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: better weapons. So it's not just who's better circumstances, whether 420 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: where's the game, what are your weapons. I think with 421 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: Marlon Humphreys coming back taking on Rashi Rice, you're not 422 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: going to run much on Baltimore. I think Mahomes is 423 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: going to be very frustrated in this game at times. 424 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 1: And I think Lamar, I think Jay Flowers Mark Andrews back, 425 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: he'sa Flowers has been. I mean just a seminal change 426 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,719 Speaker 1: in his career. I mean Lamar has He's got his 427 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: you know, Stafford is Cooper Cup, He's got his safety valve. 428 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,439 Speaker 1: He never had one. It was a tight end. So 429 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 1: in that instance, I like Lamar because I think he'll 430 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: be the better quarterback in this game. I think Goff 431 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: will have better protection, better protection, and I'm betting that 432 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: Debo doesn't play much, so that Golf will be the 433 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: better quarterback in this game. May not win, but I 434 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,199 Speaker 1: don't think you're getting forty eight snaps from Debo. I 435 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: think you're getting eighteen. And therefore, I like the weaponry 436 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: of amor on Saint Brown, Laporta, Gibbs, Montgomery, and he'll 437 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: have better protection. So in this instance, I believe I 438 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,440 Speaker 1: am taking well, GoF is better than Perty is a 439 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: natural thrower. I'm taking the better quarterback circumstantially and what 440 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: he's surrounded by. So that's why I'm taking my pick. 441 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: So again this is the classic. I know that Malms 442 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: is better than Lamar. I don't think he's got great 443 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: protection this year. Now he's not getting sacked much because 444 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 1: he's very nimble. This Baltimore front is this is the 445 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: best linebacking crew in football. It's this front seven is 446 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: really athletic and really twitchy for big athletes, and I 447 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 1: think he's going to be under some dress. 448 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 2: So to your point about the quarterbacks, it's a little 449 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 2: bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, yes, because the better 450 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 2: quarterback is almost always on the better team, and so 451 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 2: if you want to bet on the better quarterback, they're 452 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 2: almost always going to be on the favorite. And this 453 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,719 Speaker 2: year the favors were winning at a larger clip than 454 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 2: they ever have before. So the real test to your theory, 455 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 2: and this is what's interesting about betting, is you don't 456 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 2: bet for the week. You bet for your life, right, 457 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 2: and how did you do this year? How did you 458 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 2: do the next year? How do you do the year 459 00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 2: after that? Does that trend continue to hold? It's why 460 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 2: trends can be an interesting compliment to anything you're doing. 461 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 2: When you're talking about betting, we're talking about what's happening 462 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 2: on the field. That's really important. A trend is a 463 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 2: good compliment to anything you're thinking about in the field. 464 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 2: It's not the re and you make the bet. So 465 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 2: well the Kylin Cowhard good quarterback theory hold up next year. 466 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 2: That's when we start to know if that's really something 467 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 2: that is sustainable. As for the game, I think what 468 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 2: you're saying about the Chiefs offensive line is critical. I 469 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 2: think the middle of the field for the Chiefs in 470 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,679 Speaker 2: this game against the Ravens defense is critical. The Chiefs 471 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 2: are not an explosive offense at all. If Marlin Humphrey 472 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 2: is back like you say, and he is locking up 473 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 2: or she rice, which is what the expectation is. The 474 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: Ravens are not the Bills who are starting aj Klein. 475 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 2: They are not the Dolphins who are decimated at every 476 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 2: level of their defense. They are Patrick Queen. They are 477 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 2: Rokwan Smith defending the middle of the field, who can 478 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 2: do wonders when they're patrolling that middle of the field. 479 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 2: And as we said before, Joe Toney offensive guard for 480 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 2: the Chiefs and not going to be playing that also 481 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,199 Speaker 2: will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to step up 482 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 2: into the pocket. There's nothing scarier for a quarterback than 483 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 2: not being able to step up right to roll out. 484 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 2: They like to be able to step up against pressure 485 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 2: that is coming in from the edges. I think that's 486 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 2: going to be a real handicap for Patrick Mahomes in 487 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,120 Speaker 2: this game. So I completely agree with your theory on 488 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 2: why you like the Ravens and why Lamar could be 489 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,119 Speaker 2: the better quarterback in this game. That's why the Sharps 490 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:17,680 Speaker 2: believe it too. 491 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 1: Well. Hey, before, I don't watch any streaming during the 492 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:28,160 Speaker 1: football season, and then once the football season ends, I'll 493 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 1: commit to a few Netflix shows. I've peeled back. I 494 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: have Amazon for football and Netflix for my wife. I've 495 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: peeled way back on this stuff. I think these streaming 496 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 1: services are I like sports, I like news, I like politics. 497 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 1: It's all on TV. But give me one series, one 498 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 1: streaming series now. As I segue, probably in about a week, 499 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: as I move toward an occasional streaming show, do you 500 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: and your wife have one? I should be aware of. 501 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: Oh my god, Colin, we have so many. And I 502 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 2: love how you're being with the streamers. I know you're 503 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 2: saving up. I know you got a lot of big plans. 504 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 1: Hey, you just got I got a bile Southwest Airlines 505 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 1: and Spirit Airlines tickets. 506 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 2: I understand. So I'm gonna I'm gonna give you three okay. 507 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 2: Number One, If you're not watching The Bear, which is 508 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 2: on Hulu slash FX, okay, then you are missing out 509 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 2: on one of the best shows of the past twenty years. 510 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 2: This is a show. Now, granted, I'm a Chicago guy 511 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 2: and this is a Chicago show to culinary culinary show. 512 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: It just swept the Emmys right. Every single morning I 513 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 2: am watching a clip from The Bear on YouTube. I 514 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 2: go onto YouTube. I want to see, hey, how do 515 00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 2: we do overnight in our clips and everything else? And 516 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 2: before I get there, The Bear is all over my 517 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 2: home feed. It is so brilliant, Colin. It is the 518 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 2: only show that has ever come out where I waited 519 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 2: long after the premiere of the second season because I 520 00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,040 Speaker 2: knew the second I started the show, every second I 521 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,760 Speaker 2: watching it was a second closer to being over. It 522 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 2: is a unbelievably enriching experience. Number two, Listen, you have fine, 523 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 2: fine tastes. I'm gonna give you a show that was 524 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 2: really interesting. It's called Drops of God Apple TV. I 525 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 2: don't know if you want to pony up for Apple 526 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 2: TV plus Drops a god fascinating show about a guy 527 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 2: who had the most expensive fiction, the most expensive wine 528 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 2: collection in the world, A real terrible person as a 529 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 2: human being, and a father leaves the wine collection to 530 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 2: his daughter and one of his proteges, but they have 531 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 2: to answer like all these questions almost go through like 532 00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 2: a contest to see who's going to get it. And 533 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 2: it is dramatic. It makes you want to drink a 534 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 2: bottle of wine every time you're sitting down to watch it. 535 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 2: I freaking loved it. Finally, I'll tell you Season five 536 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 2: of far Ago John Hamm Juno Temple a amazing. 537 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 1: Okay, my wife said Jody Foster True Detective may be 538 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 1: worth watching, thoughts haven't. 539 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 2: I would watch it huge. Jody Foster fan loved the 540 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 2: first season A True Detective. Haven't watched it since the 541 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 2: Vince Vaughan You're at the season I didn't love and 542 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 2: so I would pick it. I would pick it back 543 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 2: up for sure. 544 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 1: You know Vince Vonder works out at my gym. He's 545 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 1: much bigger in person than you'd. 546 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 2: Think tall guy. Another Chicago guy. 547 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 1: He's a Chicago guy. 548 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 2: He is very tall guy. Loves sports games, a lot 549 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 2: of games. Is he stacking weights? Do you judge it? 550 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't judge. I myself am more of 551 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:42,239 Speaker 1: a repetition guy than a stack weights guy. I just 552 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 1: want to be, you know, sort of tight, as I say, 553 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: I've had a beautiful wife, and I have to be 554 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 1: at my you know, it's got to be at my best. 555 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 1: I gotta look tight. I'm not worried about being the 556 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,480 Speaker 1: biggest guy. I'm not going to be. 557 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 2: Your wife is beautiful. Your wife is beautiful. As we've discussed, 558 00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 2: my wifs kind of look alike. My wife also has 559 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 2: red hair. They're both in the architecture and design space. 560 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 2: Last night, I feel like you can appreciate this. Last 561 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 2: night I was in the kitchen and my wife asked 562 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,040 Speaker 2: me a question and I answered with a joke, kind 563 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 2: of one of two or three jokes I've said, probably 564 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 2: for the twenty something years we've been together. She looks 565 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 2: at me with all seriousness. She goes, look, if things 566 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 2: go well, you and I are going to be together 567 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 2: for another thirty something years. Micah, Huh. She goes, you 568 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 2: need to get some new material. So now I'm working 569 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 2: on it. I got to think of some new jokes 570 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 2: for the next thirty years of my life. If things 571 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 2: go by the way, if things go. 572 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 1: Well, well, she's worth keeping. My wife has an amazing 573 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,880 Speaker 1: quality and I have no idea how she does it. 574 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,480 Speaker 1: So if somebody tells me a funny joke, I will 575 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 1: walk up to a stranger within five minutes and tell 576 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: them because I can't keep it to myself. I want 577 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 1: to get a laugh. I want to perform and get 578 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 1: a laugh. Of course can't. My wife cannot only keep 579 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: a joke for twenty years. I've been with her seventeen years. 580 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,479 Speaker 1: And she will deliver the line or the joke at 581 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 1: the perfect time, and I'll go, how long have you 582 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 1: had that? She goes, oh god, I heard that in college. 583 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 1: I'm like, you stored that for sixteen years. And it's 584 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: not just jokes. She'll have a line. And she dropped 585 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: one the other day, one of the lines she dropped 586 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 1: years and years ago. We had just gotten married. And 587 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 1: you know, I'm feisty, little rascible, feisty, and I was 588 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 1: just in one of my moods and I said you 589 00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 1: know this, nobody, nobody that's balanced is happy. I said, 590 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,640 Speaker 1: is Peyton Manning balanced? Was Michael Jordan? Balanced? Passion is 591 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,560 Speaker 1: what makes people happy, finding something, falling in love with it, 592 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 1: kicking ass. Those are happy people. Not the web designer, 593 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: ski instructor, poet, barista. That guy's not happy. He's searching 594 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: his whole life. Well, he's balanced. And she goes, honey, 595 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 1: she touched me on the shoulder. You're balanced. You have 596 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 1: a chip on both shoulders. 597 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 2: Oh man, that is good. 598 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,000 Speaker 1: And I was like, you saved that for twelve years. 599 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 1: So the other day we were talking about the volume 600 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 1: and the growth of it, and you know, she I'm 601 00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:46,200 Speaker 1: always interested in her opinion on it. And you know, 602 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 1: I said, I you know, I'm I'm I'm proud of this, this, this, 603 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,840 Speaker 1: And she goes, honey, it's okay to look at success. 604 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,359 Speaker 1: Don't stare at it. And I wow, wow. And I 605 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 1: was like she was basically saying, stop patting yourself on 606 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:02,879 Speaker 1: the back. 607 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:10,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, do the next thing, one step every day forever. 608 00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 1: Fled. 609 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 2: I was just like that, that's amazing. 610 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:16,320 Speaker 1: It's a great quality. 611 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 2: It is. I feel like and maybe this is a 612 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:27,280 Speaker 2: trait that balances couples like you. I my The success 613 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 2: of an evening for me is judged by laughs per 614 00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 2: minute from things I said, And so at the end 615 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,240 Speaker 2: of the night, it was a great night with another 616 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:42,400 Speaker 2: couple if the other couple laughed at a lot of 617 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 2: the things that I said. My wife will say all 618 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:51,439 Speaker 2: of the things that she thinks really matter. I'll say, 619 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:57,000 Speaker 2: I'm going for volume. She is going for a very specific, 620 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,000 Speaker 2: calibrated comment that everyone's going to remember. I think I 621 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,320 Speaker 2: think we married the same woman. 622 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,640 Speaker 1: It's it's I marvel at it. 623 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. 624 00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,799 Speaker 1: It would be like if you're a baseball pitcher and 625 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: you had the best pitch and you were facing the 626 00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 1: Dodgers and you only used it twice against Mookie Bets 627 00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,560 Speaker 1: and only in the later innings, and he'd be like, 628 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:23,239 Speaker 1: why don't you use that thing in the first inning. 629 00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 1: You're like, well, I don't want to show too much 630 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:27,839 Speaker 1: of it. I'm gonna use it like twice a game. 631 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 1: And you're like, the game was tied in the third, 632 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,560 Speaker 1: it was tied in the fifth, you only used it 633 00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:32,920 Speaker 1: in the eighth, And you were like, well, it was 634 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 1: a high leverage situation. I thought that's the time to 635 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 1: use it. They'd be like, I can't. I can't do that. 636 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not capable of saying I've got this 637 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,040 Speaker 1: great gift, I'll hold off of it for twenty years. 638 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna wait. I need to be expressing what 639 00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 2: I believe my full potential is at all times. 640 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:54,879 Speaker 1: I'm like, because if. 641 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 2: I'm not Colin, if I'm not I'm not sharing my 642 00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,000 Speaker 2: gift with the world. Yeah, what am I doing? Then? 643 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,600 Speaker 1: I feel like the minute I get a funny joke, 644 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 1: I'm in the catskills and I'm Scheky Green, I've got 645 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:06,879 Speaker 1: to let it go. 646 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 2: And you're wasting your life if you're not doing that. 647 00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 2: I know. All right, all right man, good stuff, buddy, 648 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:16,759 Speaker 2: Good luck to you this weekend. Talk to you later. 649 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:19,320 Speaker 2: The volume