Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can
Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady with me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Parl. You can find him on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, are you ready to
Speaker 1: do this for Week five?
Speaker 2: I think I like this card more than you do
Speaker 2: what I thought.
Speaker 1: You no, I well, yes, that's true. I hate this card.
Speaker 1: I don't like it. You're gonna have to convince me
Speaker 1: that this is not a week that we are going
Speaker 1: to pass on all these pics.
Speaker 2: I've come around. I'm coming around.
Speaker 1: Oh God, you're disappointing me. We'll talk about every game regardless.
Speaker 1: You know, we're in the DraftKings contest, So let's actually, uh,
Speaker 1: let's recap where we are there, because we're doing okay,
Speaker 1: We're not We certainly haven't buried ourselves here. We were
Speaker 1: eight and seven coming into last week, and we went
Speaker 1: three and two last week. We missed on the Cardinals
Speaker 1: length three and a half points to the Panthers and
Speaker 1: on the Texans length three and a half points to
Speaker 1: the Vikings. We hit on the Browns, getting four and
Speaker 1: a half from the Cowboys. We hit on the Eagles,
Speaker 1: getting seven and a half from the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: and we hit on the Colts, getting two and a
Speaker 1: half from the Bears. We are eleven and nine now.
Speaker 1: We were two hundred and fifty fifth out of I
Speaker 1: think it's six ninety one last week. We're one hundred
Speaker 1: and eighty ninth now, so we're slowly moving up. We're
Speaker 1: ready to go, but we need a big week. I
Speaker 1: don't feel like this is a big week because it's
Speaker 1: very difficult in my opinion. Matt apparently feels a little differently.
Speaker 1: So we'll get to it. As always, props, we're not
Speaker 1: out yet. We will tune into our YouTube channel YouTube
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros. Matt does a livestream from
Speaker 1: eleven to twelve. Matt, you've been pretty hot on your props.
Speaker 1: You've been given out there, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been doing really well actually, and it's I've
Speaker 2: had to kind of reassess the way that I put
Speaker 2: my how much money I'm investing in the prop bets
Speaker 2: because the unit bets, the full unit bets have been
Speaker 2: doing okay, but the prop beds have been kind of
Speaker 2: saving me every weekend and normally I only invest about
Speaker 2: a quarter unit on props because I just think they're
Speaker 2: very volatile. It's one player, he gets hurt and then
Speaker 2: your prop is blown. But I mean last clip, I
Speaker 2: think I was I hit for like eleven in my
Speaker 2: last fifteen, So I'm pretty hot on that market. So
Speaker 2: it's been fun. It's been real fun since the live
Speaker 2: stream has started to get give those out and to
Speaker 2: watch those games from a different perspective, almost like a
Speaker 2: DFS perspective, when you're really pulling for one or two
Speaker 2: players to do something.
Speaker 1: Yeah, props are a lot of fun actually, and i've
Speaker 1: kind of I've heard from just people I know that
Speaker 1: props are becoming much more of like a sharp play
Speaker 1: when people are devoting a little more time to it
Speaker 1: and being able to really because I think that books
Speaker 1: don't take as much care as they do with setting
Speaker 1: the lines as they do with player props.
Speaker 2: What I would say about is this, in Vegas, the
Speaker 2: prop market is much less smaller, right, The options are
Speaker 2: far fewer than it is with the DraftKings and the
Speaker 2: fan duels of the world. So what's happened is that
Speaker 2: the New Jerseys, the West Virginia's Indiana's Illinois of the world.
Speaker 2: People have grown up playing Daily Fantasy in those markets,
Speaker 2: so they go to their apps and they open up
Speaker 2: the book and if there's not like fifty props on
Speaker 2: every game, they get kind of frustrated. They're like, what
Speaker 2: do you mean, hold on a second, why can I
Speaker 2: do it? Because the offshores have done that for years.
Speaker 2: So that's been the biggest, not problem, but frustration I
Speaker 2: think from people living in Las Vegas is that the
Speaker 2: marketplace for props. You're right, the algorithms have not caught
Speaker 2: up yet and they're much easier to beat the book
Speaker 2: that way than it is on a total or side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree. Okay, so let's talk about a
Speaker 1: couple of things here. First, Matt was running around right
Speaker 1: before we got into this podcast, so I don't know
Speaker 1: if you've heard, Matt, but they have moved the Patriots
Speaker 1: Broncos game to Monday night, going to do it Monday
Speaker 1: night doubleheader once again, with the early game going on,
Speaker 1: because I know there have been some COVID concerns because
Speaker 1: of Stefan Gilmore. Right now, it's on, but it's on
Speaker 1: on Monday night. It's going to be the Monday night doubleheader.
Speaker 2: Again, I'll just admit how stupid it was to play
Speaker 2: that Broncos game. So I mean Chiefs game.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs game. Yeah, that was a terrible time, just.
Speaker 2: A stupid move. It was so dumb, it was so predictable,
Speaker 2: it was so typical. I think maybe the NFL has
Speaker 2: dodged this and it's not a massive Titan type outbreak
Speaker 2: for the Patriots, But why in the world do you
Speaker 2: put them on a plane to fly? And it looks
Speaker 2: like we're learning a little more about at least playing
Speaker 2: football might not be that dangerous the actual act of playing.
Speaker 2: It's the practice time, it's the meetings, it's the group
Speaker 2: gatherings outside of football. But maybe actually playing the game
Speaker 2: is not nearly as dangerous as we thought it might be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, you've got this whole thing now
Speaker 1: with the Titans where they apparently, you know, essentially broke
Speaker 1: the rules. Who knows if they're going to be able
Speaker 1: to play against the Bills. You've got the weird thing
Speaker 1: where the Bills are playing next week, supposed to be
Speaker 1: on Thursday. There's talk, well, if they could get the
Speaker 1: Titans game in and they don't penalize them a game,
Speaker 1: necessarily that you might move the Chiefs Bills game from
Speaker 1: Thursday to Saturday. There's all this nonsense. We can consider
Speaker 1: that game. I haven't given it too much thought because
Speaker 1: really hard to see them play.
Speaker 2: Okay, here's the question I've got for you though, because
Speaker 2: I've been looking and I haven't seen it yet. Did
Speaker 2: you see what the Circa million two did for the
Speaker 2: Bills game?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 2: All right, Circa has changed their rules, and I don't
Speaker 2: know if DraftKings will follow this or if the Super
Speaker 2: Book will as well with the Super Contest. But if
Speaker 2: the NFL Tuesday at two am, that's the cutoff date.
Speaker 2: But before then, if they rule a team has forfeited
Speaker 2: and you picked the team like the Bills for instant
Speaker 2: right Bills against the Titans, if you if you win
Speaker 2: the circle picked the Bills this week and it's minus
Speaker 2: three in the circle. But so you picked the Bills
Speaker 2: and the Titans forfeit, you win. Really you get a point.
Speaker 2: If you pick the Titans plus three and the Titans forfeit,
Speaker 2: you lose.
Speaker 1: What if they postpone the game?
Speaker 2: Uh? The game being postponed is interesting. I guess what
Speaker 2: it means. It's a they didn't say as to in
Speaker 2: the in the Circa Survivor, it goes down as a loss.
Speaker 2: They didn't verify our postpone replay game in I'm guessing
Speaker 2: it's going to be just basically it's a zero. It's
Speaker 2: a no play. You'd go with four games that week?
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting, It's it's.
Speaker 2: A it's a game theory type of thing, where like,
Speaker 2: do you run the risk? Do you want to roll
Speaker 2: with it? If you you know? And then if they play,
Speaker 2: are you comfortable being on the Bills minus three? Because
Speaker 2: then that's your pick. So you gotta be comfortable at
Speaker 2: least thinking that they're gonna win.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well anyway, let's let's get into it.
Speaker 1: We're recording this because we've talked a little bit about
Speaker 1: this game. We're recording this at about six forty five
Speaker 1: Eastern on Thursday. So the Bears Bucks game is in
Speaker 1: play all right. By the way, Matt, this is Live News.
Speaker 1: It's six forty eight Eastern time. I just see a
Speaker 1: tweet from Adam Schefter because I have notifications up saying
Speaker 1: the Bill Titans Bills game that's scheduled for Sunday is
Speaker 1: being moved to Tuesday. Oh my gosh at six pm.
Speaker 1: So long as there are no more positive tests in Tennessee,
Speaker 1: the Bills Chiefs game is being switched from Thursday to Sunday,
Speaker 1: but it goes back if more positive tests are found
Speaker 1: in Cincinnati. In Tennessee, Oh gosh, all right, so we've
Speaker 1: got craziness. I don't know. I mean, they've been new
Speaker 1: tests every day.
Speaker 2: Wait, so so Tuesday at two am would not actually
Speaker 2: qualify for this then, because because Tuesday at two am
Speaker 2: is technically the game will we played that day? So
Speaker 2: now they've got to move that. Now, circu's going to
Speaker 2: move that back, I guess unless they rule that they're
Speaker 2: gonna I mean, so I figured that the NFL did
Speaker 2: not want to forfeit a game to the Titans, even
Speaker 2: though it sure sounds like they should.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, you don't want to do that to a
Speaker 1: playoff contender.
Speaker 2: You don't want to team versus another, I mean, two
Speaker 2: teams that have very good records.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, anyway, look, so it's now six forty nine.
Speaker 1: But you know, we we talked a little bit. The
Speaker 1: pickens are slim. This weekend. You've got the Bucks taking
Speaker 1: on the Bears. Is this a game that you want
Speaker 1: to consider. I believe it's four and a half on DraftKings.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's a bummer because the line's three. And
Speaker 2: have you heard Mike Evans news yet? Is that?
Speaker 1: Yeah? He's he is playing.
Speaker 2: Okay, So Mike Evans minus three is my bet and
Speaker 2: I'll hold on. It's like, and I got actually physically
Speaker 2: do this while we're talking, because that was I've been waiting.
Speaker 1: You're getting your bet in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been waiting for that new So I have
Speaker 2: to physically go ahead and bet.
Speaker 1: Look how dedicated ye live on the podcast on the
Speaker 1: podcast YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 2: So okay, uh, I will talk, okay it so I
Speaker 2: just want to I wanted to make sure I had
Speaker 2: the minus three with Mike Evans playing. So four and
Speaker 2: a half is a little steep, it's a little heavy.
Speaker 2: I think it's a field goal game. So uh, in
Speaker 2: the DraftKings, I would say pass it because that's a
Speaker 2: point and a half different, So I would have to
Speaker 2: say four and a half is too heavy. But three
Speaker 2: is why I waited, waited for Mike Evans and Mike
Speaker 2: Evans minus three I took tempa.
Speaker 1: Okay, good, I want to pass on it as well,
Speaker 1: So I'm glad you didn't have a very very strong
Speaker 1: lean on it. So that game's out. It's three and
Speaker 1: a half, by the way, and our consensus odds sixty
Speaker 1: five percent of experts are picking the Bucks at that spread.
Speaker 1: But we're going to pass that game. We're not going
Speaker 1: to go all right, Matt. You know what we do.
Speaker 1: We go back and forth. Here, you one, I do one.
Speaker 1: You gave me a couple that you were leaning on.
Speaker 1: I was, you know, a little hazardant on it. So
Speaker 1: go ahead, start us off. What's your best player or
Speaker 1: however you wanna you are.
Speaker 2: Put it the play that I like the best, or
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Steelers minus seven and seven, right or six
Speaker 2: and a.
Speaker 1: Half, seven and a half, seven and a.
Speaker 2: Half, fine, still take it. Don't like it, but I'll
Speaker 2: still take it. I don't like it, but I'll still
Speaker 2: take it. I think the Steelers are gonna be all
Speaker 2: over this. Pittsburgh did this Philadelphia Eagles team. And here's
Speaker 2: why the wide receivering class or grouping is still really
Speaker 2: banged up. And for whatever reason, when you look at
Speaker 2: the way that the Niners played, they didn't blitz Wentz
Speaker 2: nearly enough Blitzburg is gonna be all over Wentz. He's
Speaker 2: gonna have no time. He's got the yips still, Nick
Speaker 2: Mullins was why the Eagles won that game. And that's
Speaker 2: why I really I was so strong on the Eagles
Speaker 2: last week because I really thought, you know what, this
Speaker 2: is gonna be a win for them because they're back
Speaker 2: to against the wall. But this is a team traveling
Speaker 2: from the East coast, s east coast to the West
Speaker 2: coast and back. And I think Pittsburgh is really solid defensively.
Speaker 2: I think it's a blowout Steelers blow up.
Speaker 1: Man, see if it was like six and a half,
Speaker 1: I feel, okay, seven and a half. I'm not taking
Speaker 1: it off the table. It's not a game that I hate.
Speaker 1: Uh And you know, when I first looked at it,
Speaker 1: I try to just do a gut reaction to what
Speaker 1: I think. And I was like, oh, you know what,
Speaker 1: I'm getting the hook, getting the hook with the Eagles.
Speaker 1: You know they're coming off that win. You know, Wentz
Speaker 1: is crazy, but he you know, finds a way sort
Speaker 1: of to get it done. But the more I dug
Speaker 1: into it, as long as this isn't a very classic
Speaker 1: let down, Although the Steelers scare me.
Speaker 2: Just I know it's good. I'm glad they haven't played.
Speaker 2: They're rested well.
Speaker 1: Certainly Deontay Johnson was in the concussion protocol. Now he's out,
Speaker 1: so he should be able to play. And I know
Speaker 1: he introduced Miss Schuster. Both practiced today fully so they
Speaker 1: should be fully healthy. And yet they're gonna blitz and
Speaker 1: it's not a good matchup right now for the Eagles. No.
Speaker 1: Seven and a half is good, but I'm gonna I'm
Speaker 1: gonna keep it on the maybe. Okay, so let's get well,
Speaker 1: we'll keep it on the maybe. It's I'm not taking
Speaker 1: that one off the table, all right, my game that
Speaker 1: I like the most, and this feels like a trap
Speaker 1: game to me, Matt, So I'm just gonna do it.
Speaker 2: Let me.
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm looking at our bed analyzer, which
Speaker 1: tells you how everything comes out in terms of who
Speaker 1: our experts are picking or not. And I half the
Speaker 1: time it takes me two minutes to find the right game. Okay,
Speaker 1: you've got the line of seven on their consensus line,
Speaker 1: because again that takes in lines from all around the industry.
Speaker 1: We're stuck with, you know, when we're looking at it
Speaker 1: we're looking at the DraftKings line at seven. You've got
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of people going with Pittsburgh laying seven,
Speaker 1: So they're on your side. That's fine. It's a maybe
Speaker 1: this feels like a trap game to me, Matt, But
Speaker 1: I don't know how I can feel like the falcon
Speaker 1: should be laying points to anybody at this point. I
Speaker 1: get that the Panthers we sort of not sure if
Speaker 1: we have the Panthers pegged or if we didn't have
Speaker 1: the Cardinals pegged. But the Panthers are playing a little better.
Speaker 1: Their defense is not great, of course, they're often so
Speaker 1: pretty good. The consensus line, by the way, it's two
Speaker 1: and a half in the draft games contest, it's one
Speaker 1: and a half now in the consensus lines. There's not
Speaker 1: gonna be any Julio Jones here. He's almost certainly not
Speaker 1: going to play it in practice today. It would just
Speaker 1: be crazy to go after him like they're Their defense
Speaker 1: is absolutely decimated and it's terrible anyway. They did get
Speaker 1: Torell back, but he is not ready really to do anything,
Speaker 1: and they have three receivers anyway, all of whom are
Speaker 1: capable of doing damage. So for me, I think the
Speaker 1: Panthers are going to win this game out right the fact.
Speaker 1: I mean, I know they're getting tow and a half's less
Speaker 1: than field goal, so it doesn't really matter. But for me,
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't see how the Falcons. I don't
Speaker 1: care where you're playing, it doesn't seem like the Falcons
Speaker 1: would be favored over anyone. I think this is finally
Speaker 1: the game that gets to and Quinn Fire. So for me,
Speaker 1: game I like the most is probably the Panthers getting
Speaker 1: two and a half from the Falcons.
Speaker 2: Can't hate on it, but I don't love it. And
Speaker 2: here is the reason why I don't love it. At
Speaker 2: some point, defenses and I know the Falcons are bad,
Speaker 2: but at some point defenses are going to realize what's
Speaker 2: happening here and they're going to change up and they're
Speaker 2: not going to expect the old school defensive, you know,
Speaker 2: the old school Stop McCaffery, stop the running game. They're
Speaker 2: throwing the ball a whole lot, and Bridgewater's been pretty good. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so this is a really big public play. My biggest
Speaker 2: problem with this is this is everyone's pick this week,
Speaker 2: right everyone.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. That's why it feels sort of
Speaker 1: you know something.
Speaker 2: That's why I'm scared about the line. I'm scared about
Speaker 2: just falling down backing the Panthers expecting them to rise up.
Speaker 2: And like, you know, Matt Ryan looked so bad against
Speaker 2: the Packers. I just couldn't figure. And he had Ridley
Speaker 2: and Julio playing and they both were shells of themselves.
Speaker 2: But it was just he looked half a second slow
Speaker 2: with processing everything and then his arm is done like
Speaker 2: he just him and Breeze are just like you know,
Speaker 2: everyone thought Brady would wall fall off a cliff. I
Speaker 2: feel like those two dudes have fallen off of cliffs
Speaker 2: with their arm strength. It's just gone. There's nothing there
Speaker 2: behind the football. So that's my only concern is that
Speaker 2: it is everyone's play. But I don't hate it, and
Speaker 2: I would be comfortable. I would be comfortable rolling with
Speaker 2: it simply because it looks perfect, like everything lines up
Speaker 2: for it, and oftentimes that's when you get burned. But
Speaker 2: this year is a weird year, and yeah, the public
Speaker 2: has been doing pretty well well.
Speaker 1: That's also where I sort of have in my mind.
Speaker 1: We've been talking about it when we look at the
Speaker 1: way the DraftKings contest breaks down, we look at the
Speaker 1: pick distribution, it's so many public plays, but for the
Speaker 1: most part, the public plays have been hitting. So it is.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's just a weird year. I
Speaker 1: don't know if it's because there are no fans or
Speaker 1: what's going on. But I completely agree with you that
Speaker 1: the public being on the Panthers here does make me concerned,
Speaker 1: because it always makes me concerned whenever that happens. But
Speaker 1: still I can't I'm having trouble given the fact that
Speaker 1: there will be no Julio Jones, given how bad their
Speaker 1: defense is on a good day, and now given how the.
Speaker 2: Game though it's a conference game, I get it. Man.
Speaker 1: I look, I'm not putting it in. I'm not putting
Speaker 1: it out. I'm not scratching it like we scratched the
Speaker 1: Raiders and the Bills last one, where I said, I'm
Speaker 1: not doing that. So we've got two, I guess right
Speaker 1: now that are up in the air. Let's go to
Speaker 1: your next one.
Speaker 2: All right, So my next one, and so I kind
Speaker 2: of feel the same way about a bunch of these.
Speaker 2: But okay, the number, let me just make the because
Speaker 2: I know the number in the circa. So the number
Speaker 2: for the Browns and the Colts.
Speaker 1: Colts one and a half to the which is.
Speaker 2: Really interesting that the Colts are favored in this game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: in the circa is are the Colts favorite of the
Speaker 2: Brown's favorite? I thought the Browns are favored in the
Speaker 2: circa That could be a wild split if that's the case.
Speaker 2: Hold on, let me check that out, because yeah, if
Speaker 2: that is the case, and that's a pretty that's a
Speaker 2: pretty big difference. But I do think the Colts are
Speaker 2: going to win that game. And I think the Colts
Speaker 2: are coming around to being one of the best teams
Speaker 2: in the AFC. Their defense is not being talked about
Speaker 2: nearly enough. They're number one in the Indiana in the
Speaker 2: NFL with rush yardage given up right now. Their secondary
Speaker 2: is playing really really well. I know the Bears defense
Speaker 2: or offense. And we'll find out a little more about
Speaker 2: the Bears coming up to coming up on the for
Speaker 2: for Thursday night. But I just even one and a half.
Speaker 2: It's basically a pick them, right. I think the Colts
Speaker 2: win that game.
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, all right, I'm putting in pen because
Speaker 1: I thought you liked the Browns in this game, which
Speaker 1: is why when you first mentioned it too.
Speaker 2: I think, by the way the circusars the Colts are,
Speaker 2: the Colts are yeah, yeah, So I I did look
Speaker 2: at the Browns and then I dug a little deeper
Speaker 2: into it, okay, And I looked at the defensive stats
Speaker 2: for the Colts, and I like the fact that the
Speaker 2: Colts are flying under the radar screen right now. And
Speaker 2: I don't like what's going on with Jonathan Taylor, but
Speaker 2: Philip Rivers as long as he's not being asked to
Speaker 2: throw deep, I think they're okay. And the Browns are
Speaker 2: off of that big one over the Cowboys, and I
Speaker 2: feel like this is the typical team. They're three and one.
Speaker 2: This is where Baker Mayfield starts getting all swaggy and
Speaker 2: all crazy and doing dumb things and starts turning the
Speaker 2: football over. So I like the Colts here miss one
Speaker 2: one and a half.
Speaker 1: So it's funny. I'm totally good with it. That is
Speaker 1: the consensus line. By the way, the the cults are
Speaker 1: laying one and a half sixty four in our bed
Speaker 1: analyzer are is with Cleveland. I actually expect Cleveland to
Speaker 1: be the heavier pick side on this game. And I
Speaker 1: don't really have I don't have a problem with it.
Speaker 1: I like the Browns. I like what Stefanski is doing.
Speaker 1: I really really do. The Chubb injury does hurt I
Speaker 1: think a little bit more than people are understanding because
Speaker 1: Hunt is not built right now, especially that he's got
Speaker 1: the kind of lingering groin injury. He's not in there
Speaker 1: to be a twenty five touch back. They want to
Speaker 1: lean on the running backs. Duranis Johnson is fine, Hilliard
Speaker 1: is fine, but I think that is going to be
Speaker 1: a little bit more for me. The big thing is
Speaker 1: just the I still think the Cults are being underestimated
Speaker 1: in the market. And part of it is I get
Speaker 1: it because when you look at what their offense has
Speaker 1: done over the past couple of games, they've just looked
Speaker 1: very meh, right, Like I mean John and Telly, like
Speaker 1: we talked about it. He just kind of runs into
Speaker 1: the line and you're like, where where's the explosive?
Speaker 2: Me? What? Am I right?
Speaker 1: They're not The receivers aren't aren't involved at all. But
Speaker 1: you know what, I think that they know they have
Speaker 1: a strong defense. Maybe not quite as strong as it
Speaker 1: looks because the offenses they've played. But this is why
Speaker 1: I like them against the Bears, not only is their
Speaker 1: defense strong. I think Reich is just holding back. I
Speaker 1: think when it's time to unleash some creativity in that offense,
Speaker 1: he's going to do it. And I think this is
Speaker 1: where it comes out. So I'm glad you like it
Speaker 1: very much. I will take that as well. The cults.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with a pick that I know you
Speaker 1: don't like because it's a Matt paralim and they burned
Speaker 1: us last week. The consensus line on this game is
Speaker 1: the Texans laying six.
Speaker 2: I knew you were. I'm on the other side of this.
Speaker 1: This is Oh you like the Jaguars.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is Remember when I came on the Eagles
Speaker 2: last time and I said, I said, a friend of
Speaker 2: mine has has a guy who does stats and does
Speaker 2: lines on a mathful number, and the Eagles should have
Speaker 2: been minus plus three and they were plus seven and
Speaker 2: a half. This line should be seven, okay, And this
Speaker 2: line right now it should be Jaguars should be Jagged
Speaker 2: plus seven. It's Houston minus five and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And so this is one of those you no, sorry
Speaker 2: the way around. Sorry sorry, this line should be three.
Speaker 2: Excuse me, line should be three, right?
Speaker 1: I was getting confused.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. This line should be three and it's six
Speaker 2: and a half. So it's three points of value on
Speaker 2: the Jaguars, and this is only two points of value
Speaker 2: on the Jaguars. But this is Houston after firing their
Speaker 2: head coach. Is this is why I couldn't play this game.
Speaker 2: And I'll probably pick it. I'll probably pick it in
Speaker 2: the circle, and I probably.
Speaker 1: Will on six and a half, by the way, in the.
Speaker 2: Six and a half in the circle. Okay, so the
Speaker 2: big point difference, yep. But here's I'm not excited about
Speaker 2: doing it, only because I don't know what direction the
Speaker 2: Texans go. You get rid of Bill O'Brien, there could
Speaker 2: be a rallying cry for this team. They could figure
Speaker 2: it out, or it's Romeo Cornell who is a horrible
Speaker 2: head coach, and they could be completely not prepared and
Speaker 2: they go out there and get their doors pulling off
Speaker 2: by the Jacks. So I don't know. I mean, so
Speaker 2: I think this is a dog or pass game because
Speaker 2: of what's going on with the Texans.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll put it away. I'm not going to
Speaker 1: take the Jacks because I just I like the Texans
Speaker 1: side on it. To me, I do think that it
Speaker 1: can only benefit the team to have Bill O'Brien on.
Speaker 1: And I do think, and this is much more anecdotally
Speaker 1: because I haven't had the time to really dig into this,
Speaker 1: but I feel like there is a little bit of
Speaker 1: a quote unquote rally around the flag effect in that
Speaker 1: first game after a head coaches fired, where teams come
Speaker 1: out a little bit more. And again the Jaguars, the
Speaker 1: big thing with them is their defense is pretty banged up.
Speaker 1: I mean, Miles Jack isn't practicing.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 1: Henderson is battling his shoulder injury. De Jay Hayden's gonna
Speaker 1: miss the game. So for me, the injuries to the
Speaker 1: defense fine, but it is five and a half, and
Speaker 1: especially six and a half is, by the way, the
Speaker 1: consensus lines and the experts are roughly split on it
Speaker 1: fifty six forty four. So I'm fine to move on
Speaker 1: with that. I don't want to take the Jags, though,
Speaker 1: but I'm fine to move on from that. So go
Speaker 1: ahead to your next one.
Speaker 2: The next one is one that is kind of a
Speaker 2: system play, and I know you're probably gonna shake your
Speaker 2: head out and say no, but the Bengals are catching
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half points thirteen and a half points.
Speaker 2: It's Joey backdoor cover baby. I just the Bengals. It
Speaker 2: may not be pretty, but Lamar Jackson's knee injury screams.
Speaker 2: Pull him in the third quarter, pull him in the
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, get him off the field, and then let
Speaker 2: Burrow go to work and let them lose by ten
Speaker 2: and cover that thirteen and a half point line. It's
Speaker 2: gonna be part of my teaser. I'm teasing this. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna wait till this line gets to fourteen. I do
Speaker 2: think you'll get to fourteen.
Speaker 1: And you're gonna tease it up to twenty.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna tease it to twenty. I think the Bengals
Speaker 2: are gonna be in the I think the Bengal's gonna
Speaker 2: make this game closer than people realize because I think
Speaker 2: Burrow's that good.
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't hate it. You know you said, oh
Speaker 1: you're gonna I don't hate it, but I'll put it
Speaker 1: on the pencil list. I could see it. And I
Speaker 1: do think Jackson, who misspractice again today with an illness,
Speaker 1: you know he's not at one hundred percent. But you know,
Speaker 1: let me ask you something like this. You've got another
Speaker 1: team catching thirteen and a half points, and that's the
Speaker 1: Raiders getting thirteen and a half from the Chiefs. Do
Speaker 1: you like that game on either side?
Speaker 2: No, and I don't like it on either side. And
Speaker 2: I actually like that maybe the other side of my teaser.
Speaker 2: I haven't fully determined it yet, but if you can
Speaker 2: get twelve and a half for the for the Chiefs
Speaker 2: and then tease it down under seven, get to six
Speaker 2: and a half, I think the Chiefs maybe on the
Speaker 2: other side of that teaser that that I'll play with
Speaker 2: the Ravens and the Chiefs for four and ohero on
Speaker 2: these teasers so far here on the Daily Juice podcast,
Speaker 2: so I'm trying to expend that to five and oh here.
Speaker 2: But I just think the Kanstie Chiefs are not I
Speaker 2: don't want to say they're angry, but they're not happy
Speaker 2: with the way they play against the Patriots offense right.
Speaker 2: They want to get after it. Having Henry Ruggs come
Speaker 2: back is gigantic for the Raiders' offense because it will
Speaker 2: allow Waller to get free over the middle. The problem
Speaker 2: without without the guy to take the top off the defense,
Speaker 2: safety's crept down and you really couldn't get the ball
Speaker 2: to Waller. So for the last two weeks the Raiders
Speaker 2: really Waller wasn't visible, so I think he re emerges
Speaker 2: with then after you open up Waller, now you've got
Speaker 2: the over the top to Rugs and now you can
Speaker 2: run the ball more with Josh Jacobs. So their offense
Speaker 2: really does. Having Rugs there is a major, major piece
Speaker 2: to what they want to do. But on the road
Speaker 2: at Arrowhead, yikes.
Speaker 1: For that it's not the same though, I mean, ara's
Speaker 1: not the same. I'm not going to push for that
Speaker 1: game because that's not a game that I am desperate off.
Speaker 1: It is worth noting both these games. The games are
Speaker 1: the big spread the consensus lines. So the lines in
Speaker 1: the Draftings sportsbook are thirteen and a half for both
Speaker 1: the favorites. The consensus lines that are going at and
Speaker 1: I don't know what they are in the circum at,
Speaker 1: but they're they're closer. The Ravens are only laying twelve
Speaker 1: now in the contstant lines, and by the way, the
Speaker 1: experts are split right down the middle. It's fifty three
Speaker 1: percent even at twelve, so you're getting an extra point
Speaker 1: and a half there. For the Chiefs, they're only laying
Speaker 1: eleven on the consensus lines, and that's fifty eight percent
Speaker 1: leaning towards the Chiefs. So that's fine. I don't have
Speaker 1: a major feel in either one of them. Although if
Speaker 1: you came and you were definitely like, man, I love
Speaker 1: both dogs, I would be willing to take it. It's
Speaker 1: terrifying to do it. It's a little more terrifying to
Speaker 1: go against the Chiefs. Yeah, because it's.
Speaker 2: Twelve in the circle, by the way, Raiders plus twelve
Speaker 2: Bengals plus it's eleven and a half in the circus
Speaker 2: is a bit wow, big difference in points there. And
Speaker 2: to get two points of two points of value in
Speaker 2: the draft Kings contest versus the circa contest, all right,
Speaker 2: So all.
Speaker 1: Right, I want to vomit, but let's put that one
Speaker 1: in pencil and be okay. So we've got a couple
Speaker 1: of leeks that are under consideration. We've only got one
Speaker 1: that we're definitely doing, with the Colts laying one and
Speaker 1: a half to the Browns, and then we've got the
Speaker 1: Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagless definitely under consideration.
Speaker 1: The Bengals getting thirteen and a half from the Ravens
Speaker 1: and the Panthers laying two and a half to the Falcons,
Speaker 1: which you know is a well we'll see. Uh what
Speaker 1: about the Cardinals laying seven and a half points to
Speaker 1: the Joe Flacco led Jets.
Speaker 2: I mean, okay, hold on. Have you seen some of
Speaker 2: the stats for Kyler Murray.
Speaker 1: Oh? I well, you can read them off if you look.
Speaker 2: I'm just saying his completion he's last in the NFL
Speaker 2: in yards per completion.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I know, it's really scary to go and ask him
Speaker 2: to do anything. I'm really I'm nervous about that team
Speaker 2: and how they've regressed very quickly.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: They the Cardinals are scaring the holy heck out of me.
Speaker 2: And I think Joe Flacco is playing for legacy. Uh
Speaker 2: uh oh, I think.
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, Matt, I will grant you everything
Speaker 1: you want to say about the Cardinals one hundred percent agree.
Speaker 1: They have not played well. I also, I don't know
Speaker 1: what Cliff Kingsbury is doing when they get close to
Speaker 1: the goal line, and even when they do give it
Speaker 1: to Kendon Drake, who has not played well and maybe
Speaker 1: battling and to remember, he was in that walking boot
Speaker 1: all in in, you know, and he has not looked good.
Speaker 1: They don't just pound it up up the middle. They
Speaker 1: do these sweeps that go on the outside and they're
Speaker 1: just not gonna get done. The play calling is atrocious
Speaker 1: when you get there. I get all that, but it's
Speaker 1: the Jets, the Adam Gates led Jets with Joe Flacco
Speaker 1: playing for legacy. I mean, Joe Laco could be playing
Speaker 1: for a billion dollars and it wouldn't change how I
Speaker 1: feel about him as a quarterback. Now, look, anytime you're
Speaker 1: over a touchdown.
Speaker 2: They're gonna lose. It's the question of public how much
Speaker 2: that's my worry.
Speaker 1: We were like four seconds away from a win against
Speaker 1: the Broncos, which you and I both had. We were
Speaker 1: four seconds away from the Jets beating the Broncos, and
Speaker 1: they wound up losing by what nine, ten eleven, whatever
Speaker 1: that was. They are terrible. They're one of the worst
Speaker 1: football teams that I can remember watching. It's my own team,
Speaker 1: so I've seen a lot of bad teams.
Speaker 2: But there If you don't like teams on East Coast,
Speaker 2: I just I'm I'm concerned about the Cardinals. I'm concerned
Speaker 2: about DeAndre Hopkins not getting the football in the right cases.
Speaker 2: I wish you know. I to me, this is like
Speaker 2: a prove it game, Like watch the Cardinals this this
Speaker 2: week and if they win by ten points and I'll
Speaker 2: be like, Okay, here they go. They they've rectified and
Speaker 2: fixed some stuff. But I just this is about asking
Speaker 2: one of these mediocre teams to go in and cover
Speaker 2: anything on the road in the NFL. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think it's hard on ten o'clock kick early start time.
Speaker 2: It's it's it worries me.
Speaker 1: So I'll make you a deal. We're gonna take this
Speaker 1: one out. However, if the Cardinals massacre the Jets, from
Speaker 1: now on, my takes on the Jets, which are almost
Speaker 1: always going to be whatever.
Speaker 2: It's your team, Yes, it's your team.
Speaker 1: So yeah, whatever the spread is it's too small, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we're gonna We're gonna listen that. We're gonna give that more.
Speaker 2: Look, if you want to stand on the table and
Speaker 2: tell me no, no, no, I love the Cardinals, so I
Speaker 2: I I'm okay. I mean I toldally going into the
Speaker 2: year this is a great team.
Speaker 1: I'm just correcked.
Speaker 2: I'm nervous about my own evaluation of these guys because
Speaker 2: I feel like Kyler Murray is regressing as a passer
Speaker 2: and he came out of the gate for firing and
Speaker 2: it looked awesome. And now it's like all this dink
Speaker 2: and dunk stuff isn't working, and I can't, like, where's Fitzgerald,
Speaker 2: Where's Kirk? Like where is this team right now? Offensively?
Speaker 2: And it's great when Kyler's running, But how long can
Speaker 2: you do that and have him be healthy?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, look, I think two weeks ago, it
Speaker 1: might have been last week where I said, Man, I
Speaker 1: just I think the market just hasn't caught up so
Speaker 1: that the Cardinals are really good now they're they're really struggling,
Speaker 1: I will say, And I'm not pushing towards this game.
Speaker 1: This spread, the contents of spread is seven and I'm
Speaker 1: looking at our bet analyzer, of our betting pros dot
Speaker 1: Com slash NFL slash bet dash analyzer, it is eighty
Speaker 1: that's the most one sided game. Of the people who
Speaker 1: are picking games, it's eighty two percent are on the
Speaker 1: Cardinals to cover a seven point spread against the Jets.
Speaker 1: We'll take it off because as long as I can
Speaker 1: know that in the future, if there's and you might
Speaker 1: be right, I just I can't imagine. I mean Leveon
Speaker 1: Bell is coming back. I don't care. It just doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: They are.
Speaker 1: They are an historically terrible team, they really are. But
Speaker 1: let's go to your next pick then, okay, So well,
Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna put that one in pencil. We'll
Speaker 1: take it off. It's okay with me because I don't
Speaker 1: It's not like I love it, but it was one
Speaker 1: of the one and sosiying, do you have anything else
Speaker 1: that you're eyeing? Because I got a couple more than
Speaker 1: I'm maybe thinking about.
Speaker 2: Not really, I mean, the only other game that I
Speaker 2: think we're gonna wind up taking in the Circa is
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna play that system, play on the
Speaker 2: Bills and lay the three and a half to see
Speaker 2: what the NFL might might come back and do, because
Speaker 2: I just I know we're sitting here on Thursday.
Speaker 1: And what is the what? What is the spread?
Speaker 2: It's three?
Speaker 1: The Titans are laying three.
Speaker 2: No, the Bills are laying three.
Speaker 1: You know that in ours? The Titans are laying one
Speaker 1: and a half to the Bills, right, unless I wrote that?
Speaker 1: Did I write that down wrong? Please tell me I didn't.
Speaker 2: You sent to me?
Speaker 1: I sent to you. Good, look at the signs the Bills.
Speaker 2: Are one and no the Bills are favorite mins one
Speaker 2: and a.
Speaker 1: Half the Bills are favorite. I'm sorry, Okay, that would
Speaker 1: have been That would have been pretty great. That would
Speaker 1: have been great.
Speaker 2: Monster that everybody. I mean, yeah, so I mean to
Speaker 2: me because I don't I'm not so sure that the
Speaker 2: Titans aren't gonna have something drop here that's going to
Speaker 2: be catastrophic on Saturday that the league's gonna come back
Speaker 2: and say, you're gonna forfeit this game. I mean, if
Speaker 2: the Titans aren't going to forfeit this game, no one
Speaker 2: will ever forfeit a game in the NFL, not that
Speaker 2: they want.
Speaker 1: To know what could happen, Matt, you know what could happen?
Speaker 1: What I I forgot who somebody tweeted this sat It
Speaker 1: might have been Todd Furman, somebody tweeted out somebody said.
Speaker 1: What they should do is when you have these games,
Speaker 1: don't give the Titans a loss necessarily. I don't know
Speaker 1: if this would be fair because they're avoiding games with
Speaker 1: tough teams, But you give the Bills a win, like
Speaker 1: the Bills are credited with a win in the game,
Speaker 1: but you don't make the Titans take the loss on it.
Speaker 1: They stay at whatever their record is and you just
Speaker 1: give the posing you can win. Now that's not really
Speaker 1: I mean, they play the Steelers, that's a tough game
Speaker 1: for them.
Speaker 2: So just really congratulations, Jo hate that the books who
Speaker 2: have Bills, who have big liability on the Bills.
Speaker 1: That's true.
Speaker 2: Win total. That's crazy that Titan win totals as well,
Speaker 2: because you'd want them to actually have a loss there
Speaker 2: not a win. I guess it for win to win matter.
Speaker 1: So who do you think is going to win this
Speaker 1: game if they do play?
Speaker 2: Though? Well, you know what I think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you hate the Bills and you will never bet
Speaker 1: on the Bills.
Speaker 2: You know where I am on this game, and I
Speaker 2: think this is the exposure game. I think this is
Speaker 2: the game where where finally the Titans play a solid
Speaker 2: game and Tannehill plays well because I think I think
Speaker 2: that Bills defense is horrible and I think this Bills
Speaker 2: team is finally gonna play a defense worth something. They
Speaker 2: haven't played a defense worth anything so far this year.
Speaker 2: Everyone they plays garbage defensively. So if I had to
Speaker 2: bet it, give me the three points in the in
Speaker 2: the Titans. If I was betting it, with money. I'll
Speaker 2: take the Titans plus three at home.
Speaker 1: And you're gonna play it in the circle, though, but
Speaker 1: you're gonna play it for the Bills. Is that what
Speaker 1: I mean?
Speaker 2: We're debating it. We're gonna wait all the way till
Speaker 2: right before the deadline to see if the NFL on
Speaker 2: Saturday decides to make the Titans forfeit, and then if
Speaker 2: they don't, then we'll just go ahead and play it.
Speaker 2: We'll either replace it or we'll play it. We'll have
Speaker 2: a way we want to play it. But that's the
Speaker 2: We have four picks and we're kind of waiting on
Speaker 2: the waiting on that game to see what's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: All right, let me give you another play that I
Speaker 1: know you're gonna hate because it goes against Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: and it's the Vikings getting six and a half from
Speaker 1: the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: So in Seattle at home, you're going you're taking Kirk
Speaker 2: Cousins on the road against Ross Well sort of this
Speaker 2: time in prime time.
Speaker 1: Also not a good fact for me. I agree that.
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson with his numbers in primetime, these things are
Speaker 2: at home against Kirk Cousins in primetime.
Speaker 1: These things are not good. These things are not good
Speaker 1: facts for me saying that this is bet where we
Speaker 1: could take. However, let me offer some counterpoints. There are
Speaker 1: a couple of things. Number one, of course, there are
Speaker 1: no fans, so I realized that that may not matter,
Speaker 1: you know, when you think about it. But for me,
Speaker 1: the way I think about that is the huge home
Speaker 1: field advantage that the Seahawks have. This is just more
Speaker 1: that they're comfortable and they don't have to travel. So
Speaker 1: that is something, but it's not nearly the same at
Speaker 1: as what it was in that stadium where it was crazy.
Speaker 1: I think the Vikings have really now changed, and I
Speaker 1: think we didn't see it when we bet the Texans
Speaker 1: last week against them. As bad as the Texans played,
Speaker 1: I think getting Justin Jefferson more involved and essentially taking
Speaker 1: that Stefan Diggs role is going to allow them to
Speaker 1: put up a ton of points and Seattle's Can you
Speaker 1: admit at least that Seattle's defense stinks?
Speaker 2: Oh no, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, there's no debate in
Speaker 2: that Seattle's defense is definitely not good. I'm not going
Speaker 2: to deny that. It's just that Wilson is so on
Speaker 2: this MVP watch that it's something else and that secondary
Speaker 2: for the Vikings is who's guarding dk metcalf? Oh?
Speaker 1: I agree, but who was guarding them last week against
Speaker 1: the Dolphins and they didn't have this? I mean I
Speaker 1: realized their home now and it's prime time. It's not
Speaker 1: like Wilson went. I mean, Wilson not a great game,
Speaker 1: right of course, and they put up plenty of points,
Speaker 1: but that game was kind of that wasn't you know?
Speaker 1: That the Dolphins decide that they're not going to settle
Speaker 1: for all those field goals, and that's a game. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's something that's close. The Seahawks don't usually blow teams out,
Speaker 1: especially teams that can put up a ton of boys.
Speaker 2: Remember points, a blowout, no, but more points. They usually
Speaker 2: play one.
Speaker 1: They usually play one score games. And who have they
Speaker 1: beaten so far this year? Matt like, go through their games? Okay,
Speaker 1: they've beaten the.
Speaker 2: Dolphins, Patriots with cam at home.
Speaker 1: Yeah that was good. That was good. But they barely
Speaker 1: squeaked they barely Okay, chill out, that's fine. Then who
Speaker 1: did they beat? You know, kind of a hard fought game,
Speaker 1: the Falcons, right, garbage? And then who did they beat
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, right, the other team they garbage mostly garbage.
Speaker 2: Was a garbage Yeah, yeah, no, I agree, But the
Speaker 2: same thing can be some of the Bills. I mean,
Speaker 2: you're so good, you're raw, raw, Josh Allen.
Speaker 1: Man, Come on, you know.
Speaker 2: Who's played a tougher schedule, The Bills or the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Okay, who's the Bills played?
Speaker 2: The Jets, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Rams,
Speaker 2: uh and the and the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Yeah, neither one. But I'm not sitting here and saying
Speaker 1: that Russell Wilson sucks or the Seahawks suck. I'm just
Speaker 1: saying that I don't know necessarily if they are this
Speaker 1: complete juggernaut.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna make you Kirk Cousins to do anything
Speaker 2: in primetime that is.
Speaker 1: I think that's I think if you're if you're avoiding
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins outside of a one o'clock Eastern game, you're fine.
Speaker 2: Time that dude bright lights, no way.
Speaker 1: All right, So we're running out of choices here. Let
Speaker 1: me get down a couple other giants getting nine and
Speaker 1: a half from the Cowboys. By the way, I will
Speaker 1: say that on our bed analyzer, the vast majority of
Speaker 1: experts it's the second most heavily sided game, which is
Speaker 1: the Seahawks to cover the seven points. Bread, I'll just
Speaker 1: put that out there. I don't care. I'll do what
Speaker 1: I want. But yeah, yeah, Faith, I'm getting nine and
Speaker 1: a half from the Cowboys. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Why are you so interested in your bad Giants team?
Speaker 1: Is it like I'm not I'm going to the next game.
Speaker 1: I don't like that game. I'm just now saying I'm
Speaker 1: out of games. I thought you were too. Are you?
Speaker 1: Do you have anything?
Speaker 2: I want? Absolutely nothing. I won't watch a single second
Speaker 2: of this game. I want no part of anything to
Speaker 2: do with the Giant, with Dallas and the Giant because
Speaker 2: it's fine because you know what back door is coming, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, Dallas is gonna go up, Everyone's gonna relax,
Speaker 2: and then Danny's gonna start throwing.
Speaker 1: It's going to go into like, oh, I'm on the
Speaker 1: Giants side here. If I have to be on the.
Speaker 2: Side, yeah, I just I don't trust the Cowboy and
Speaker 2: I also don't trust the Giants not to lose my fifty.
Speaker 1: Totally fine, So it's not a game that we need
Speaker 1: to go near at all. I think if you want
Speaker 1: to bet on either one of these teams. You're just insane, insane.
Speaker 1: And again it's minus nine on our consensus lines and
Speaker 1: the experts are fifty one forty nine, so it's completely split,
Speaker 1: all right, So do you have any others or do
Speaker 1: you want to go through their main game?
Speaker 2: What about Sam fran at home with Garoppolo plays?
Speaker 1: Ah?
Speaker 2: What what half our lines? Eight and a half?
Speaker 1: Eight and a half? I worry a little bit again,
Speaker 1: I mean it, you know, didn't look that great the
Speaker 1: last last week.
Speaker 2: But I worry a little moans with two interceptions.
Speaker 1: Yeah, not about the forty nine ers. I mean more
Speaker 1: about the Dolphins. I feel fine with the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: but again that the forty nine ers, their their defense
Speaker 1: is so decimated and you get the good fits and
Speaker 1: you could easily keep that game within a touchdown right
Speaker 1: by the way, it's that's legitimately. I've sorted it right
Speaker 1: now by most experts side with somebody and fewest experts
Speaker 1: and fifty fifty is Dolphins and forty nine ers covered
Speaker 1: the spread and our bedanaliz our myself, and that's how
Speaker 1: I am. I don't have a good lean for that.
Speaker 1: You like it? Moster may come back as well, and
Speaker 1: Garoppolo may come back. That makes me feel a little better.
Speaker 2: Plays. I'm I think the forty nine ers beat you
Speaker 2: love it? He beat him badly. Yeah, I think Kettle
Speaker 2: has a monster game. I think that that at home.
Speaker 2: I think that's just one of those West Coast East
Speaker 2: coast type matchups that if you get Groppolo back healthy,
Speaker 2: they just run them over and they just kill him.
Speaker 2: But I don't. But again, Groppolo coming back has to play,
Speaker 2: and that's a big question mark still as to whether
Speaker 2: or not he's gonna play. If it's Nick Mullins, I want
Speaker 2: no part of the game.
Speaker 1: All right. How about what do you think about the
Speaker 1: Washington football team getting seven and a half from the Rams.
Speaker 2: See, here's the thing with this quarterback change. I don't
Speaker 2: know what Kyle Allen's gonna do, so, I mean, and
Speaker 2: also it doesn't sound like the hook won't be that
Speaker 2: far away from Allen and they may go to Alex Smith.
Speaker 2: I mean, there are plenty of questions to Ron Rivera
Speaker 2: about Alex Smith's availability, and he was like, Alex Smith
Speaker 2: is cleared to play. And if Alex Smith is, if
Speaker 2: doctors say he can play, he can play. If we
Speaker 2: need him, we're gonna play him. So, I mean, I
Speaker 2: don't know who plays quarterback, So that worries me a
Speaker 2: little bit about what's like what happened with the with
Speaker 2: the Falcons and and Nick Foles coming in. It's like
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you make a switch and a
Speaker 2: light bulb goes off and one of those guys gets hot,
Speaker 2: and well.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm not I mean, for me with the hook,
Speaker 1: I actually like Washington. Now, Chase Young, I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna play. Oh he's practicing right now.
Speaker 2: J Young plays, then I could probably subscribe to that.
Speaker 2: I could probably, I could probably get.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think I think whoever's out there, Kyle
Speaker 1: Allen Colin's not a great NFL quarterback. And I always
Speaker 1: have to qualify this map because sometimes I feel like
Speaker 1: on the Fancy Bros. Podcast, where like, oh that guy stinks.
Speaker 1: To be clear, anybody playing in the NFL is better
Speaker 1: at playing football than any of us will ever be
Speaker 1: at anything in our lives. So just bear that in mind.
Speaker 1: But Kyle Allen not great. But we're talking about Dayne
Speaker 1: Haskins year, he's an upgrade. Alex Smith would certainly be
Speaker 1: an upgrade. Alan knows that system because he obviously familiar.
Speaker 1: I think it's an upgrade. The Rams really did not
Speaker 1: look impressive last week. You know, we we've been singing
Speaker 1: their praises a little bit. I remember they were getting
Speaker 1: killed right in that game against was Dallas against the Bills.
Speaker 1: They alway killed against that game against the Bills, the Rights,
Speaker 1: and then they just they managed to make it a
Speaker 1: game at the very end. I don't know what happened. Well,
Speaker 1: obviously you think the Bills think, but you know, if
Speaker 1: Young does play, I kind of might be willing to
Speaker 1: take the hook. And again it's it's minus seven ore
Speaker 1: consensus odds seventy two percent are going with the Rams.
Speaker 1: But this feels like, you know, getting more in a touchdown.
Speaker 1: If Young play is going to Alan and having Alex
Speaker 1: Smith by the way as your backup, which is an upgrade, right,
Speaker 1: that might be a game that I would doubtle on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I can get behind that. I can at
Speaker 2: seven and a half. It does come down to come
Speaker 2: down to I need Chase Young out there to get
Speaker 2: after in disrupting who I think is mister happy feet
Speaker 2: and Jared Goff. So I think you need to make
Speaker 2: it make his life a little more miserable than it's been.
Speaker 2: So if you have young out there being able to
Speaker 2: get out to the quarterback and disruption and interrupting the offense,
Speaker 2: is that, yeah, I can get by in seven and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 1: Sure, Okay, all right, so let's let's put that as
Speaker 1: a as a maybe for sure. How how do you
Speaker 1: feel about your team laying ten and a half to
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I'm assuming they play now on Monday night,
Speaker 1: Prime Time ten and a half.
Speaker 2: This is the biggest no play of the week. You
Speaker 2: cannot go near this game. I mean, we don't know
Speaker 2: about CAM. I mean yeah, and then if it's if
Speaker 2: it's not going to be Cam, are they gonna play Hoyer?
Speaker 1: I mean no, They're going to Stidham? All right? Hoyer
Speaker 1: was terrible said that.
Speaker 2: Belichick won't say that. He's been asked point playing three times. Now,
Speaker 2: are you going to go to Stidham if Cam is
Speaker 2: not available?
Speaker 1: How can you go back to Hoyer after what you
Speaker 1: saw against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: I really think that here's my conspiracy theory, and this
Speaker 2: is could be way off, but here's what I think.
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots know that Jared Stidham's their quarterback
Speaker 2: next year, regardless of what happens with Cam this year.
Speaker 2: And then Cam knows that too, and I think they
Speaker 2: know they've got something. Instead of that they needed another
Speaker 2: year to season him, to get him really up to
Speaker 2: speed and ready to go, kind of like a Patrick
Speaker 2: Mahomes situation where in practice everyone's like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: this kid can play now, and we're really excited about it.
Speaker 2: And I think this team is wanting to avoid a
Speaker 2: quarterback controversy if Sidheam goes out and sets the world
Speaker 2: on fire and then Cam comes back and they've already
Speaker 2: given a year to Cam. This is your year. Cam,
Speaker 2: come here and play for a year for us, give
Speaker 2: us everything for one year, and then go and cash in.
Speaker 2: I mean, Cam has been pretty honest, honest. It's like
Speaker 2: it's a business trip. His family hasn't moved there, like
Speaker 2: he has no plans to staying long term, and because
Speaker 2: of that, he has to know that like he he
Speaker 2: hasn't said, like, well, maybe I'm the quarterback in the
Speaker 2: next year and if I play well enough, give me
Speaker 2: a contract. It's like Sideam's the guy. So I think
Speaker 2: that's why they're either a protecting him, not wanting to
Speaker 2: get hurt or be not wanting to cause a quarterback controversy.
Speaker 1: Okay, so you think Sindham's not going to play in
Speaker 1: this game, even if Cam, If Cam, I think.
Speaker 2: They're going to play Hooyer. I think that they're gonna
Speaker 2: be stubborn about this, and I think until he struggles,
Speaker 2: until he sucks, in which he probably will, I think
Speaker 2: that they will then turn around and go to stidheam
Speaker 2: in it in an emergency if they have to, but
Speaker 2: I think it's their preference to play Hoyer.
Speaker 1: And with that, let's say there is no Camp. Let's
Speaker 1: say they do go with Hoyer and maybe we find
Speaker 1: out about it before time locks. There's no Stevan Gilmore
Speaker 1: in this game because he's on COVID and there's probably
Speaker 1: not gonna be locked. So you're dealing with Brett Rippon.
Speaker 1: I get it, but he.
Speaker 2: Didn't look that bad till the second half.
Speaker 1: Would you take and a half ten and a half?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I would, yeah, because that was my first instinct, YE
Speaker 1: was I might take the Broncos here. What if it's Stidham,
Speaker 1: though you don't like it.
Speaker 2: If it's Stidham, I'm a little more concerned because I
Speaker 2: think the Hey can play, but without Gilmore, I think
Speaker 2: you're gonna I think Judy could go off, right, So
Speaker 2: I think there's the potential to have a big game
Speaker 2: for the wide receivers against the Patriots defense. And let's
Speaker 2: be frank, the Patriots always put up a huge fight
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs because they spend in you know, three
Speaker 2: weeks prepping for that game, and then the Broncos don't
Speaker 2: get the same attention and you're expecting to run the ball.
Speaker 2: I think Damien Harris is going to be an absolute monster,
Speaker 2: so I think he had one hundred yards. It was
Speaker 2: the first game the Patriots lost. It was They're now
Speaker 2: fifty to two in their last fifty two games when
Speaker 2: they have a rusher goal for for one hundred or
Speaker 2: more yards, so that it is really rare for them
Speaker 2: to have a one hundred yard rusher and lose. So
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna run the ball a lot with
Speaker 2: with Harrods and that shrinks the game, and that could
Speaker 2: factor into a ten point victory. And we went on
Speaker 2: a hook. So I don't mind the ten and a
Speaker 2: half there. I feel that's that's a pretty heavy number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I might be willing to do that one. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's I think there's only one game that we haven't
Speaker 1: talked about, and that is the Saints ling eight and
Speaker 1: a half to the Charters.
Speaker 2: So this is a I don't like this number, all right. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but justin Herbert getting named the starting quarterback for the
Speaker 2: Chargers for the rest of the year, I think is
Speaker 2: a pretty significant rallying CRI as they head to New Orleans.
Speaker 2: Because it's his guy, it's his job, it's his team.
Speaker 2: There's no more looking over your shoulder, and you get
Speaker 2: to go and build that rapport, in that relationship with
Speaker 2: the with your teammates, and you're Mike Williams and say, hey,
Speaker 2: this is guys Hunter, Henry, this is who we're gonna
Speaker 2: go and this is our guy now. And I don't
Speaker 2: like this Saints offense. Eight and a half's pretty heavy
Speaker 2: if I don't like the game. But if I had
Speaker 2: to bet it, I'll dike the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Wow, Yeah, I don't like it. It's a stay away
Speaker 1: from me. I get it. You're making good points. I
Speaker 1: don't want to you don't want to bet really on
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins in primetime. I don't really want to bet
Speaker 1: against Drew Breese in primetime a girl, though I know,
Speaker 1: I know there wasn't a good performance a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago. Okay, So here's what we're looking at, Matt.
Speaker 1: We got one game that we're both like, yep, we're
Speaker 1: good on, and that's the Colt slang one and a
Speaker 1: half to the Browns. I think we should probably write
Speaker 1: in the Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: because I do like that one. So I'll put that
Speaker 1: one in in pen. After that, we've got a bunch
Speaker 1: of sort of questionable ones, and I guess what we're
Speaker 1: gonna do here is we'll maybe we'll just say that
Speaker 1: we'll wait it and we'll tweet it out because we'in
Speaker 1: at Dan Harris Adi Sports Talk, Matt. Here are the
Speaker 1: ones that are under consideration. The Broncos getting ten and
Speaker 1: a half from the Patriots, which is heavily under consideration
Speaker 1: if Cam is out, especially, and then we'll figure that out.
Speaker 1: The Washington football team getting seven and a half from
Speaker 1: the Rent if Chase Young plays. We also kind of
Speaker 1: lean that way. The Bengals getting thirteen and a half
Speaker 1: from the Ravens, which I feel sick about. But I
Speaker 1: am starting to lean that way. And the Panthers getting
Speaker 1: two and a half from the Falcons, which we both
Speaker 1: agree is to public play, and I'm just more on
Speaker 1: the I'm okay to take a public play this year ticket? Yeah,
Speaker 1: oh yeah, so if you're good with that when I
Speaker 1: put it.
Speaker 2: In, but ticket, I mean, I'm okay, I'm okay with it.
Speaker 2: I mean again, it's I was always arguing with friends
Speaker 2: of mine who like the Falcons and have been I
Speaker 2: have one friend in particular that really is a sharp
Speaker 2: guy who loves the Falcons for whatever reason. He thinks
Speaker 2: that they just get tons of value because everybody thinks
Speaker 2: they stink. But I think I think they stink. So
Speaker 2: it's like it's like, great, you could have all the
Speaker 2: value you want on the line and the numbers, but
Speaker 2: I think I just think the Falcons stink.
Speaker 1: Right, and they're so banged up. So I think those
Speaker 1: three the Steelers link seven and a half to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: the Colts getting one and a half, laying one and
Speaker 1: a half to the Browns, and the Panthers getting two
Speaker 1: and a half from the Falcons just pretty much in.
Speaker 2: But real quick. For the record, I have bet against
Speaker 2: the Panthers the last two weeks and lost. Yeah, if
Speaker 2: I bet we bet on them and they lose this
Speaker 2: week out, they become my new Texans.
Speaker 1: That's fine. I'll take that. I'll take that. I don't
Speaker 1: I don't have a good feel for that either.
Speaker 2: I want I'm part of them the rest of the year.
Speaker 2: They are eighty six. We're not dealing with the Panthers anymore.
Speaker 1: I think that's fair. I think that's fair about it.
Speaker 1: All right, that's different Today and Matt mentioned that he
Speaker 1: host a Daily Juice podcast, which I said in the
Speaker 1: beginning to that is a great podcast, and I really
Speaker 1: enjoyed it every morning when you wake up Matt sort
Speaker 1: of and his little community which he's got. Now if
Speaker 1: you go on Twitter you can see hashtag you can
Speaker 1: see everything you go through, the best bets of the day.
Speaker 1: It's a really good listen. Also again eleven a m
Speaker 1: Eastern eight am Pacific on Sunday mornings, Matt does a
Speaker 1: full show, breaking them the slate and giving prop bets.
Speaker 1: I always give him a couple as well in addition
Speaker 1: to what he's been doing. He's been really successful. So
Speaker 1: go check it out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty good too.
Speaker 1: By the way, thanks.
Speaker 2: Thanks.
Speaker 1: I mean it's part. It's like my job is to
Speaker 1: project players for Fantasy.
Speaker 2: I mean you gave me. I I message you about
Speaker 2: the one of the props for the under on Ezekiel
Speaker 2: Elliott that I thought was accurate, and you were you
Speaker 2: nailed it. I mean I said, yeah, it was eighty
Speaker 2: five and a half. You said seventy three. I think
Speaker 2: he ran for fifty five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, I did have that one always makes
Speaker 1: me nervous going against Zeke, but yeah, so I will
Speaker 1: give Mad some as I usually do on Sunday nights
Speaker 1: on Saturday nights, and he can relate to the audience.
Speaker 1: But definitely check it out YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Subscribe you'll see it every live stream every Sunday morning,
Speaker 1: Eastern time at eleven. In the meantime, we are going
Speaker 1: to put in our picks as we'll wait and I'll
Speaker 1: tweet them out when we make our final decisions, usually
Speaker 1: on Saturday night, and we will talk to you next week,
Speaker 1: doing the same thing for week six.