WEBVTT - Week 5 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 59) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:16.640 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.880 Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:22.119 find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady with me, 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:24.360 of course, is Matt Parl. You can find him on 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.400 Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, are you ready to 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:28.960 do this for Week five? 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:30.720 I think I like this card more than you do 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:32.240 what I thought. 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:36.760 You no, I well, yes, that's true. I hate this card. 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.199 I don't like it. You're gonna have to convince me 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:41.199 that this is not a week that we are going 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.040 to pass on all these pics. 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:45.680 I've come around. I'm coming around. 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:50.400 Oh God, you're disappointing me. We'll talk about every game regardless. 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:53.120 You know, we're in the DraftKings contest, So let's actually, uh, 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:56.480 let's recap where we are there, because we're doing okay, 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:00.720 We're not We certainly haven't buried ourselves here. We were 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:02.720 eight and seven coming into last week, and we went 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.720 three and two last week. We missed on the Cardinals 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.399 length three and a half points to the Panthers and 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:10.480 on the Texans length three and a half points to 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:12.720 the Vikings. We hit on the Browns, getting four and 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.160 a half from the Cowboys. We hit on the Eagles, 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.240 getting seven and a half from the forty nine ers, 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:18.640 and we hit on the Colts, getting two and a 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:20.840 half from the Bears. We are eleven and nine now. 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.120 We were two hundred and fifty fifth out of I 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:26.040 think it's six ninety one last week. We're one hundred 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.160 and eighty ninth now, so we're slowly moving up. We're 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:30.480 ready to go, but we need a big week. I 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.440 don't feel like this is a big week because it's 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.600 very difficult in my opinion. Matt apparently feels a little differently. 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.920 So we'll get to it. As always, props, we're not 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:42.800 out yet. We will tune into our YouTube channel YouTube 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:46.440 dot com slash Betting Pros. Matt does a livestream from 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.080 eleven to twelve. Matt, you've been pretty hot on your props. 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:50.120 You've been given out there, right. 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:53.040 Yeah, we've been doing really well actually, and it's I've 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:54.960 had to kind of reassess the way that I put 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.240 my how much money I'm investing in the prop bets 0:01:57.240 --> 0:01:59.520 because the unit bets, the full unit bets have been 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.000 doing okay, but the prop beds have been kind of 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.360 saving me every weekend and normally I only invest about 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:06.600 a quarter unit on props because I just think they're 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.120 very volatile. It's one player, he gets hurt and then 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:13.120 your prop is blown. But I mean last clip, I 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:14.560 think I was I hit for like eleven in my 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:18.240 last fifteen, So I'm pretty hot on that market. So 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:20.440 it's been fun. It's been real fun since the live 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.560 stream has started to get give those out and to 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:25.919 watch those games from a different perspective, almost like a 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.600 DFS perspective, when you're really pulling for one or two 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:29.560 players to do something. 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:32.480 Yeah, props are a lot of fun actually, and i've 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:35.160 kind of I've heard from just people I know that 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:38.480 props are becoming much more of like a sharp play 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:40.920 when people are devoting a little more time to it 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.840 and being able to really because I think that books 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.880 don't take as much care as they do with setting 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:48.240 the lines as they do with player props. 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:51.000 What I would say about is this, in Vegas, the 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:55.320 prop market is much less smaller, right, The options are 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.920 far fewer than it is with the DraftKings and the 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:01.320 fan duels of the world. So what's happened is that 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:04.840 the New Jerseys, the West Virginia's Indiana's Illinois of the world. 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.720 People have grown up playing Daily Fantasy in those markets, 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:11.920 so they go to their apps and they open up 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:14.720 the book and if there's not like fifty props on 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:17.200 every game, they get kind of frustrated. They're like, what 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:18.600 do you mean, hold on a second, why can I 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.040 do it? Because the offshores have done that for years. 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:26.400 So that's been the biggest, not problem, but frustration I 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:29.000 think from people living in Las Vegas is that the 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:32.680 marketplace for props. You're right, the algorithms have not caught 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.400 up yet and they're much easier to beat the book 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:37.840 that way than it is on a total or side. 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.320 Yeah, no, I agree. Okay, so let's talk about a 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:42.720 couple of things here. First, Matt was running around right 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:44.440 before we got into this podcast, so I don't know 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:46.880 if you've heard, Matt, but they have moved the Patriots 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.640 Broncos game to Monday night, going to do it Monday 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:53.240 night doubleheader once again, with the early game going on, 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:56.120 because I know there have been some COVID concerns because 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:58.320 of Stefan Gilmore. Right now, it's on, but it's on 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:00.560 on Monday night. It's going to be the Monday night doubleheader. 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:02.800 Again, I'll just admit how stupid it was to play 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:04.720 that Broncos game. So I mean Chiefs game. 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.120 The Chiefs game. Yeah, that was a terrible time, just. 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:09.040 A stupid move. It was so dumb, it was so predictable, 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:11.960 it was so typical. I think maybe the NFL has 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:14.920 dodged this and it's not a massive Titan type outbreak 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:16.760 for the Patriots, But why in the world do you 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.200 put them on a plane to fly? And it looks 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:21.760 like we're learning a little more about at least playing 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:24.800 football might not be that dangerous the actual act of playing. 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:27.040 It's the practice time, it's the meetings, it's the group 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:31.400 gatherings outside of football. But maybe actually playing the game 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:33.520 is not nearly as dangerous as we thought it might be. 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:36.560 Yeah, and you know, you've got this whole thing now 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:39.599 with the Titans where they apparently, you know, essentially broke 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:41.640 the rules. Who knows if they're going to be able 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:43.240 to play against the Bills. You've got the weird thing 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:45.880 where the Bills are playing next week, supposed to be 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.000 on Thursday. There's talk, well, if they could get the 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:50.839 Titans game in and they don't penalize them a game, 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.880 necessarily that you might move the Chiefs Bills game from 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:57.760 Thursday to Saturday. There's all this nonsense. We can consider 0:04:57.839 --> 0:04:59.720 that game. I haven't given it too much thought because 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:00.840 really hard to see them play. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:02.840 Okay, here's the question I've got for you though, because 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:04.920 I've been looking and I haven't seen it yet. Did 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:06.960 you see what the Circa million two did for the 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:07.520 Bills game? 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:07.920 No? 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.080 All right, Circa has changed their rules, and I don't 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:13.760 know if DraftKings will follow this or if the Super 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.600 Book will as well with the Super Contest. But if 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:20.600 the NFL Tuesday at two am, that's the cutoff date. 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:24.240 But before then, if they rule a team has forfeited 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:27.480 and you picked the team like the Bills for instant 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.800 right Bills against the Titans, if you if you win 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.280 the circle picked the Bills this week and it's minus 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:35.120 three in the circle. But so you picked the Bills 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:39.200 and the Titans forfeit, you win. Really you get a point. 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:42.440 If you pick the Titans plus three and the Titans forfeit, 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:43.400 you lose. 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:45.520 What if they postpone the game? 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:49.720 Uh? The game being postponed is interesting. I guess what 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:55.160 it means. It's a they didn't say as to in 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.800 the in the Circa Survivor, it goes down as a loss. 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.880 They didn't verify our postpone replay game in I'm guessing 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:04.880 it's going to be just basically it's a zero. It's 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:06.680 a no play. You'd go with four games that week? 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:08.760 Yeah, interesting, It's it's. 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.400 A it's a game theory type of thing, where like, 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:13.560 do you run the risk? Do you want to roll 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:15.880 with it? If you you know? And then if they play, 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:18.480 are you comfortable being on the Bills minus three? Because 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:20.839 then that's your pick. So you gotta be comfortable at 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:22.240 least thinking that they're gonna win. 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.080 Yeah, all right, well anyway, let's let's get into it. 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.800 We're recording this because we've talked a little bit about 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:29.960 this game. We're recording this at about six forty five 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:35.400 Eastern on Thursday. So the Bears Bucks game is in 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:37.480 play all right. By the way, Matt, this is Live News. 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:40.279 It's six forty eight Eastern time. I just see a 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.080 tweet from Adam Schefter because I have notifications up saying 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:46.640 the Bill Titans Bills game that's scheduled for Sunday is 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:50.120 being moved to Tuesday. Oh my gosh at six pm. 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:54.080 So long as there are no more positive tests in Tennessee, 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:58.360 the Bills Chiefs game is being switched from Thursday to Sunday, 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:02.440 but it goes back if more positive tests are found 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:08.440 in Cincinnati. In Tennessee, Oh gosh, all right, so we've 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.800 got craziness. I don't know. I mean, they've been new 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:11.560 tests every day. 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.600 Wait, so so Tuesday at two am would not actually 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.400 qualify for this then, because because Tuesday at two am 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.120 is technically the game will we played that day? So 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:22.480 now they've got to move that. Now, circu's going to 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:24.520 move that back, I guess unless they rule that they're 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.200 gonna I mean, so I figured that the NFL did 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.560 not want to forfeit a game to the Titans, even 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.280 though it sure sounds like they should. 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:33.040 Right, Yeah, you don't want to do that to a 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:34.080 playoff contender. 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:36.680 You don't want to team versus another, I mean, two 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:38.120 teams that have very good records. 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:42.000 Yeah. Well, anyway, look, so it's now six forty nine. 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.960 But you know, we we talked a little bit. The 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:48.480 pickens are slim. This weekend. You've got the Bucks taking 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:50.520 on the Bears. Is this a game that you want 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.640 to consider. I believe it's four and a half on DraftKings. 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.520 Yeah, it's it's a bummer because the line's three. And 0:07:56.840 --> 0:07:58.760 have you heard Mike Evans news yet? Is that? 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:00.080 Yeah? He's he is playing. 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.080 Okay, So Mike Evans minus three is my bet and 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:04.679 I'll hold on. It's like, and I got actually physically 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:06.800 do this while we're talking, because that was I've been waiting. 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:07.600 You're getting your bet in. 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:09.200 Yeah, I've been waiting for that new So I have 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:10.200 to physically go ahead and bet. 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.200 Look how dedicated ye live on the podcast on the 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:16.280 podcast YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:22.600 So okay, uh, I will talk, okay it so I 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:23.800 just want to I wanted to make sure I had 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:26.160 the minus three with Mike Evans playing. So four and 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.800 a half is a little steep, it's a little heavy. 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.520 I think it's a field goal game. So uh, in 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:34.839 the DraftKings, I would say pass it because that's a 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:36.440 point and a half different, So I would have to 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:37.960 say four and a half is too heavy. But three 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:40.000 is why I waited, waited for Mike Evans and Mike 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:41.520 Evans minus three I took tempa. 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:43.400 Okay, good, I want to pass on it as well, 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:45.520 So I'm glad you didn't have a very very strong 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:47.520 lean on it. So that game's out. It's three and 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:49.480 a half, by the way, and our consensus odds sixty 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:54.480 five percent of experts are picking the Bucks at that spread. 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:56.000 But we're going to pass that game. We're not going 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:58.640 to go all right, Matt. You know what we do. 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.040 We go back and forth. Here, you one, I do one. 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.559 You gave me a couple that you were leaning on. 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.120 I was, you know, a little hazardant on it. So 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:08.800 go ahead, start us off. What's your best player or 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:09.920 however you wanna you are. 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.160 Put it the play that I like the best, or 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.199 the Pittsburgh Steelers minus seven and seven, right or six 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:15.360 and a. 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.200 Half, seven and a half, seven and a. 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.240 Half, fine, still take it. Don't like it, but I'll 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:21.560 still take it. I don't like it, but I'll still 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:23.800 take it. I think the Steelers are gonna be all 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:26.160 over this. Pittsburgh did this Philadelphia Eagles team. And here's 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:30.400 why the wide receivering class or grouping is still really 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:34.760 banged up. And for whatever reason, when you look at 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:38.120 the way that the Niners played, they didn't blitz Wentz 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.640 nearly enough Blitzburg is gonna be all over Wentz. He's 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:45.480 gonna have no time. He's got the yips still, Nick 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.960 Mullins was why the Eagles won that game. And that's 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:49.520 why I really I was so strong on the Eagles 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:51.000 last week because I really thought, you know what, this 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:52.439 is gonna be a win for them because they're back 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:54.320 to against the wall. But this is a team traveling 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.120 from the East coast, s east coast to the West 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:59.760 coast and back. And I think Pittsburgh is really solid defensively. 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.200 I think it's a blowout Steelers blow up. 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.120 Man, see if it was like six and a half, 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:07.040 I feel, okay, seven and a half. I'm not taking 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:09.199 it off the table. It's not a game that I hate. 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:13.000 Uh And you know, when I first looked at it, 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:14.800 I try to just do a gut reaction to what 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:16.120 I think. And I was like, oh, you know what, 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:18.400 I'm getting the hook, getting the hook with the Eagles. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:20.880 You know they're coming off that win. You know, Wentz 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.720 is crazy, but he you know, finds a way sort 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:25.640 of to get it done. But the more I dug 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:28.440 into it, as long as this isn't a very classic 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.800 let down, Although the Steelers scare me. 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.320 Just I know it's good. I'm glad they haven't played. 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:35.520 They're rested well. 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:38.320 Certainly Deontay Johnson was in the concussion protocol. Now he's out, 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:39.640 so he should be able to play. And I know 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:42.160 he introduced Miss Schuster. Both practiced today fully so they 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:44.880 should be fully healthy. And yet they're gonna blitz and 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:46.959 it's not a good matchup right now for the Eagles. No. 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:49.600 Seven and a half is good, but I'm gonna I'm 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:52.800 gonna keep it on the maybe. Okay, so let's get well, 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:54.480 we'll keep it on the maybe. It's I'm not taking 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:56.720 that one off the table, all right, my game that 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.160 I like the most, and this feels like a trap 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.559 game to me, Matt, So I'm just gonna do it. 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:01.839 Let me. 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:03.720 By the way, I'm looking at our bed analyzer, which 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.160 tells you how everything comes out in terms of who 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:08.280 our experts are picking or not. And I half the 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.040 time it takes me two minutes to find the right game. Okay, 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:14.880 you've got the line of seven on their consensus line, 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:18.000 because again that takes in lines from all around the industry. 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:19.920 We're stuck with, you know, when we're looking at it 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.360 we're looking at the DraftKings line at seven. You've got 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:25.679 sixty three percent of people going with Pittsburgh laying seven, 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:28.920 So they're on your side. That's fine. It's a maybe 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.760 this feels like a trap game to me, Matt, But 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:39.960 I don't know how I can feel like the falcon 0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:43.679 should be laying points to anybody at this point. I 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.520 get that the Panthers we sort of not sure if 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.640 we have the Panthers pegged or if we didn't have 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:52.559 the Cardinals pegged. But the Panthers are playing a little better. 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:56.120 Their defense is not great, of course, they're often so 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:58.880 pretty good. The consensus line, by the way, it's two 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:00.679 and a half in the draft games contest, it's one 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.280 and a half now in the consensus lines. There's not 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:05.440 gonna be any Julio Jones here. He's almost certainly not 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:07.320 going to play it in practice today. It would just 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.240 be crazy to go after him like they're Their defense 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.360 is absolutely decimated and it's terrible anyway. They did get 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:18.000 Torell back, but he is not ready really to do anything, 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.320 and they have three receivers anyway, all of whom are 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.319 capable of doing damage. So for me, I think the 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.440 Panthers are going to win this game out right the fact. 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:26.880 I mean, I know they're getting tow and a half's less 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:28.560 than field goal, so it doesn't really matter. But for me, 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:30.840 I don't. I don't see how the Falcons. I don't 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.640 care where you're playing, it doesn't seem like the Falcons 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.360 would be favored over anyone. I think this is finally 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.000 the game that gets to and Quinn Fire. So for me, 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.160 game I like the most is probably the Panthers getting 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:40.240 two and a half from the Falcons. 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.200 Can't hate on it, but I don't love it. And 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.080 here is the reason why I don't love it. At 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.200 some point, defenses and I know the Falcons are bad, 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.040 but at some point defenses are going to realize what's 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.440 happening here and they're going to change up and they're 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.640 not going to expect the old school defensive, you know, 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.760 the old school Stop McCaffery, stop the running game. They're 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:07.880 throwing the ball a whole lot, and Bridgewater's been pretty good. Yeah, 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.320 so this is a really big public play. My biggest 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.400 problem with this is this is everyone's pick this week, 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:15.400 right everyone. 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:17.400 That's what I'm saying. That's why it feels sort of 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:18.040 you know something. 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.480 That's why I'm scared about the line. I'm scared about 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.400 just falling down backing the Panthers expecting them to rise up. 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:27.880 And like, you know, Matt Ryan looked so bad against 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:31.439 the Packers. I just couldn't figure. And he had Ridley 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.080 and Julio playing and they both were shells of themselves. 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:37.720 But it was just he looked half a second slow 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.960 with processing everything and then his arm is done like 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:44.000 he just him and Breeze are just like you know, 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:46.000 everyone thought Brady would wall fall off a cliff. I 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:47.960 feel like those two dudes have fallen off of cliffs 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:50.079 with their arm strength. It's just gone. There's nothing there 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.200 behind the football. So that's my only concern is that 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:55.600 it is everyone's play. But I don't hate it, and 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:57.800 I would be comfortable. I would be comfortable rolling with 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:02.199 it simply because it looks perfect, like everything lines up 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.400 for it, and oftentimes that's when you get burned. But 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:07.720 this year is a weird year, and yeah, the public 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:09.400 has been doing pretty well well. 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:11.880 That's also where I sort of have in my mind. 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:13.319 We've been talking about it when we look at the 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:15.760 way the DraftKings contest breaks down, we look at the 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:19.200 pick distribution, it's so many public plays, but for the 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.440 most part, the public plays have been hitting. So it is. 0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:23.680 I don't know if it's just a weird year. I 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:25.360 don't know if it's because there are no fans or 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.520 what's going on. But I completely agree with you that 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:32.000 the public being on the Panthers here does make me concerned, 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.480 because it always makes me concerned whenever that happens. But 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.120 still I can't I'm having trouble given the fact that 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.040 there will be no Julio Jones, given how bad their 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.240 defense is on a good day, and now given how the. 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.120 Game though it's a conference game, I get it. Man. 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:48.920 I look, I'm not putting it in. I'm not putting 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:50.880 it out. I'm not scratching it like we scratched the 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.200 Raiders and the Bills last one, where I said, I'm 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.640 not doing that. So we've got two, I guess right 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:58.320 now that are up in the air. Let's go to 0:14:58.320 --> 0:14:59.040 your next one. 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.520 All right, So my next one, and so I kind 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.000 of feel the same way about a bunch of these. 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.600 But okay, the number, let me just make the because 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.280 I know the number in the circa. So the number 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.920 for the Browns and the Colts. 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.600 Colts one and a half to the which is. 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.960 Really interesting that the Colts are favored in this game. Yeah, 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.280 in the circa is are the Colts favorite of the 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:22.040 Brown's favorite? I thought the Browns are favored in the 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.800 circa That could be a wild split if that's the case. 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.960 Hold on, let me check that out, because yeah, if 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.600 that is the case, and that's a pretty that's a 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:32.400 pretty big difference. But I do think the Colts are 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:34.640 going to win that game. And I think the Colts 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.800 are coming around to being one of the best teams 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:40.720 in the AFC. Their defense is not being talked about 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:42.560 nearly enough. They're number one in the Indiana in the 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.760 NFL with rush yardage given up right now. Their secondary 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.480 is playing really really well. I know the Bears defense 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:50.240 or offense. And we'll find out a little more about 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.760 the Bears coming up to coming up on the for 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.760 for Thursday night. But I just even one and a half. 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:57.960 It's basically a pick them, right. I think the Colts 0:15:57.960 --> 0:15:58.520 win that game. 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.080 Oh my gosh, all right, I'm putting in pen because 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.800 I thought you liked the Browns in this game, which 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:05.360 is why when you first mentioned it too. 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.600 I think, by the way the circusars the Colts are, 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.080 the Colts are yeah, yeah, So I I did look 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:11.720 at the Browns and then I dug a little deeper 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.680 into it, okay, And I looked at the defensive stats 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:17.240 for the Colts, and I like the fact that the 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.600 Colts are flying under the radar screen right now. And 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.440 I don't like what's going on with Jonathan Taylor, but 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:25.520 Philip Rivers as long as he's not being asked to 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.520 throw deep, I think they're okay. And the Browns are 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:30.600 off of that big one over the Cowboys, and I 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.960 feel like this is the typical team. They're three and one. 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:35.760 This is where Baker Mayfield starts getting all swaggy and 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:38.000 all crazy and doing dumb things and starts turning the 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.840 football over. So I like the Colts here miss one 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:41.360 one and a half. 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:43.240 So it's funny. I'm totally good with it. That is 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.360 the consensus line. By the way, the the cults are 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.400 laying one and a half sixty four in our bed 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:52.400 analyzer are is with Cleveland. I actually expect Cleveland to 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:55.040 be the heavier pick side on this game. And I 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:56.600 don't really have I don't have a problem with it. 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.240 I like the Browns. I like what Stefanski is doing. 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:02.840 I really really do. The Chubb injury does hurt I 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.760 think a little bit more than people are understanding because 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:08.280 Hunt is not built right now, especially that he's got 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.080 the kind of lingering groin injury. He's not in there 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:13.200 to be a twenty five touch back. They want to 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.479 lean on the running backs. Duranis Johnson is fine, Hilliard 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:18.240 is fine, but I think that is going to be 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.399 a little bit more for me. The big thing is 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:22.879 just the I still think the Cults are being underestimated 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.080 in the market. And part of it is I get 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.440 it because when you look at what their offense has 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.240 done over the past couple of games, they've just looked 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.800 very meh, right, Like I mean John and Telly, like 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:34.360 we talked about it. He just kind of runs into 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.520 the line and you're like, where where's the explosive? 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:38.119 Me? What? Am I right? 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.480 They're not The receivers aren't aren't involved at all. But 0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:43.280 you know what, I think that they know they have 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:45.639 a strong defense. Maybe not quite as strong as it 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:47.680 looks because the offenses they've played. But this is why 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:49.359 I like them against the Bears, not only is their 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.879 defense strong. I think Reich is just holding back. I 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:55.120 think when it's time to unleash some creativity in that offense, 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:56.679 he's going to do it. And I think this is 0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:58.359 where it comes out. So I'm glad you like it 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.639 very much. I will take that as well. The cults. 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:02.240 I'm gonna go with a pick that I know you 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:05.320 don't like because it's a Matt paralim and they burned 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:08.920 us last week. The consensus line on this game is 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:09.920 the Texans laying six. 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:12.320 I knew you were. I'm on the other side of this. 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:13.760 This is Oh you like the Jaguars. 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:15.879 Yeah, this is Remember when I came on the Eagles 0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:17.800 last time and I said, I said, a friend of 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:20.160 mine has has a guy who does stats and does 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.720 lines on a mathful number, and the Eagles should have 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.480 been minus plus three and they were plus seven and 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:30.119 a half. This line should be seven, okay, And this 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.159 line right now it should be Jaguars should be Jagged 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.360 plus seven. It's Houston minus five and a half. Yeah, 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:37.520 And so this is one of those you no, sorry 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:39.440 the way around. Sorry sorry, this line should be three. 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:41.120 Excuse me, line should be three, right? 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:42.040 I was getting confused. 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:44.600 I'm sorry. This line should be three and it's six 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:46.359 and a half. So it's three points of value on 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:49.080 the Jaguars, and this is only two points of value 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.920 on the Jaguars. But this is Houston after firing their 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.600 head coach. Is this is why I couldn't play this game. 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:58.159 And I'll probably pick it. I'll probably pick it in 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:00.840 the circle, and I probably. 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:04.360 Will on six and a half, by the way, in the. 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:06.159 Six and a half in the circle. Okay, so the 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.920 big point difference, yep. But here's I'm not excited about 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:11.760 doing it, only because I don't know what direction the 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:14.520 Texans go. You get rid of Bill O'Brien, there could 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.639 be a rallying cry for this team. They could figure 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:19.520 it out, or it's Romeo Cornell who is a horrible 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:22.480 head coach, and they could be completely not prepared and 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:24.159 they go out there and get their doors pulling off 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:26.919 by the Jacks. So I don't know. I mean, so 0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:29.320 I think this is a dog or pass game because 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:30.520 of what's going on with the Texans. 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:33.520 Yeah, so we'll put it away. I'm not going to 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:35.520 take the Jacks because I just I like the Texans 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:38.719 side on it. To me, I do think that it 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.239 can only benefit the team to have Bill O'Brien on. 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:43.359 And I do think, and this is much more anecdotally 0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:45.520 because I haven't had the time to really dig into this, 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:47.520 but I feel like there is a little bit of 0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:49.760 a quote unquote rally around the flag effect in that 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:52.679 first game after a head coaches fired, where teams come 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:54.240 out a little bit more. And again the Jaguars, the 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.800 big thing with them is their defense is pretty banged up. 0:19:57.840 --> 0:19:59.840 I mean, Miles Jack isn't practicing. 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:00.240 C J. 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:02.680 Henderson is battling his shoulder injury. De Jay Hayden's gonna 0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:04.800 miss the game. So for me, the injuries to the 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:06.959 defense fine, but it is five and a half, and 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:09.720 especially six and a half is, by the way, the 0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:13.119 consensus lines and the experts are roughly split on it 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.280 fifty six forty four. So I'm fine to move on 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:17.640 with that. I don't want to take the Jags, though, 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:18.960 but I'm fine to move on from that. So go 0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:19.840 ahead to your next one. 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:22.880 The next one is one that is kind of a 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:27.080 system play, and I know you're probably gonna shake your 0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:29.760 head out and say no, but the Bengals are catching 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:33.760 thirteen and a half points thirteen and a half points. 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:39.600 It's Joey backdoor cover baby. I just the Bengals. It 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.240 may not be pretty, but Lamar Jackson's knee injury screams. 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:45.040 Pull him in the third quarter, pull him in the 0:20:45.080 --> 0:20:47.720 fourth quarter, get him off the field, and then let 0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:50.320 Burrow go to work and let them lose by ten 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:52.880 and cover that thirteen and a half point line. It's 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:55.480 gonna be part of my teaser. I'm teasing this. I'm 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:57.399 gonna wait till this line gets to fourteen. I do 0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:58.800 think you'll get to fourteen. 0:20:58.680 --> 0:20:59.920 And you're gonna tease it up to twenty. 0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:03.000 I'm gonna tease it to twenty. I think the Bengals 0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:04.680 are gonna be in the I think the Bengal's gonna 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:07.080 make this game closer than people realize because I think 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:08.359 Burrow's that good. 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:12.239 Okay, I don't hate it. You know you said, oh 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:14.199 you're gonna I don't hate it, but I'll put it 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:16.760 on the pencil list. I could see it. And I 0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:20.280 do think Jackson, who misspractice again today with an illness, 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:24.840 you know he's not at one hundred percent. But you know, 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:27.040 let me ask you something like this. You've got another 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.760 team catching thirteen and a half points, and that's the 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:32.879 Raiders getting thirteen and a half from the Chiefs. Do 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:34.639 you like that game on either side? 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:37.879 No, and I don't like it on either side. And 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:41.119 I actually like that maybe the other side of my teaser. 0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:44.000 I haven't fully determined it yet, but if you can 0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:46.399 get twelve and a half for the for the Chiefs 0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:48.320 and then tease it down under seven, get to six 0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.280 and a half, I think the Chiefs maybe on the 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:52.000 other side of that teaser that that I'll play with 0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.199 the Ravens and the Chiefs for four and ohero on 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.960 these teasers so far here on the Daily Juice podcast, 0:21:58.000 --> 0:21:59.800 so I'm trying to expend that to five and oh here. 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:05.080 But I just think the Kanstie Chiefs are not I 0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:07.320 don't want to say they're angry, but they're not happy 0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:09.200 with the way they play against the Patriots offense right. 0:22:09.240 --> 0:22:11.400 They want to get after it. Having Henry Ruggs come 0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:13.640 back is gigantic for the Raiders' offense because it will 0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:16.159 allow Waller to get free over the middle. The problem 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:18.160 without without the guy to take the top off the defense, 0:22:18.359 --> 0:22:20.280 safety's crept down and you really couldn't get the ball 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:22.919 to Waller. So for the last two weeks the Raiders 0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:25.920 really Waller wasn't visible, so I think he re emerges 0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:28.320 with then after you open up Waller, now you've got 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.280 the over the top to Rugs and now you can 0:22:30.359 --> 0:22:34.199 run the ball more with Josh Jacobs. So their offense 0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:36.520 really does. Having Rugs there is a major, major piece 0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:38.480 to what they want to do. But on the road 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:40.800 at Arrowhead, yikes. 0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:43.080 For that it's not the same though, I mean, ara's 0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:44.280 not the same. I'm not going to push for that 0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:46.440 game because that's not a game that I am desperate off. 0:22:46.480 --> 0:22:48.560 It is worth noting both these games. The games are 0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:50.840 the big spread the consensus lines. So the lines in 0:22:50.840 --> 0:22:53.880 the Draftings sportsbook are thirteen and a half for both 0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:56.040 the favorites. The consensus lines that are going at and 0:22:56.040 --> 0:22:57.280 I don't know what they are in the circum at, 0:22:57.320 --> 0:22:59.960 but they're they're closer. The Ravens are only laying twelve 0:23:00.480 --> 0:23:02.479 now in the contstant lines, and by the way, the 0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:05.320 experts are split right down the middle. It's fifty three 0:23:06.119 --> 0:23:08.560 percent even at twelve, so you're getting an extra point 0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:13.200 and a half there. For the Chiefs, they're only laying 0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:16.000 eleven on the consensus lines, and that's fifty eight percent 0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:18.199 leaning towards the Chiefs. So that's fine. I don't have 0:23:18.240 --> 0:23:20.159 a major feel in either one of them. Although if 0:23:20.160 --> 0:23:22.359 you came and you were definitely like, man, I love 0:23:22.920 --> 0:23:25.119 both dogs, I would be willing to take it. It's 0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:27.520 terrifying to do it. It's a little more terrifying to 0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:29.240 go against the Chiefs. Yeah, because it's. 0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:31.920 Twelve in the circle, by the way, Raiders plus twelve 0:23:32.000 --> 0:23:35.320 Bengals plus it's eleven and a half in the circus 0:23:35.440 --> 0:23:37.720 is a bit wow, big difference in points there. And 0:23:38.280 --> 0:23:40.560 to get two points of two points of value in 0:23:40.600 --> 0:23:43.760 the draft Kings contest versus the circa contest, all right, 0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:44.480 So all. 0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:46.640 Right, I want to vomit, but let's put that one 0:23:46.680 --> 0:23:49.000 in pencil and be okay. So we've got a couple 0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:50.840 of leeks that are under consideration. We've only got one 0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:52.680 that we're definitely doing, with the Colts laying one and 0:23:52.680 --> 0:23:54.720 a half to the Browns, and then we've got the 0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:57.639 Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagless definitely under consideration. 0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:01.800 The Bengals getting thirteen and a half from the Ravens 0:24:01.840 --> 0:24:04.160 and the Panthers laying two and a half to the Falcons, 0:24:04.160 --> 0:24:07.080 which you know is a well we'll see. Uh what 0:24:07.200 --> 0:24:09.840 about the Cardinals laying seven and a half points to 0:24:09.960 --> 0:24:12.240 the Joe Flacco led Jets. 0:24:12.440 --> 0:24:14.440 I mean, okay, hold on. Have you seen some of 0:24:14.480 --> 0:24:15.639 the stats for Kyler Murray. 0:24:15.840 --> 0:24:18.400 Oh? I well, you can read them off if you look. 0:24:18.560 --> 0:24:21.040 I'm just saying his completion he's last in the NFL 0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:22.080 in yards per completion. 0:24:22.520 --> 0:24:22.840 Yeah. 0:24:22.960 --> 0:24:25.679 I know, it's really scary to go and ask him 0:24:25.680 --> 0:24:27.800 to do anything. I'm really I'm nervous about that team 0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:29.439 and how they've regressed very quickly. 0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:30.560 Yeah. 0:24:30.600 --> 0:24:32.680 They the Cardinals are scaring the holy heck out of me. 0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:36.360 And I think Joe Flacco is playing for legacy. Uh 0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:37.800 uh oh, I think. 0:24:38.040 --> 0:24:41.359 I mean, I mean, Matt, I will grant you everything 0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:44.960 you want to say about the Cardinals one hundred percent agree. 0:24:45.000 --> 0:24:47.480 They have not played well. I also, I don't know 0:24:47.520 --> 0:24:49.879 what Cliff Kingsbury is doing when they get close to 0:24:49.920 --> 0:24:51.600 the goal line, and even when they do give it 0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:53.760 to Kendon Drake, who has not played well and maybe 0:24:53.800 --> 0:24:55.879 battling and to remember, he was in that walking boot 0:24:55.920 --> 0:24:58.040 all in in, you know, and he has not looked good. 0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:00.920 They don't just pound it up up the middle. They 0:25:00.960 --> 0:25:03.160 do these sweeps that go on the outside and they're 0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:05.280 just not gonna get done. The play calling is atrocious 0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:08.160 when you get there. I get all that, but it's 0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:11.520 the Jets, the Adam Gates led Jets with Joe Flacco 0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:14.719 playing for legacy. I mean, Joe Laco could be playing 0:25:14.760 --> 0:25:17.439 for a billion dollars and it wouldn't change how I 0:25:17.480 --> 0:25:20.200 feel about him as a quarterback. Now, look, anytime you're 0:25:20.200 --> 0:25:21.280 over a touchdown. 0:25:21.040 --> 0:25:23.679 They're gonna lose. It's the question of public how much 0:25:23.960 --> 0:25:26.200 that's my worry. 0:25:26.480 --> 0:25:30.639 We were like four seconds away from a win against 0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:33.360 the Broncos, which you and I both had. We were 0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:35.960 four seconds away from the Jets beating the Broncos, and 0:25:36.000 --> 0:25:39.359 they wound up losing by what nine, ten eleven, whatever 0:25:39.560 --> 0:25:42.440 that was. They are terrible. They're one of the worst 0:25:42.480 --> 0:25:45.320 football teams that I can remember watching. It's my own team, 0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:46.760 so I've seen a lot of bad teams. 0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:49.400 But there If you don't like teams on East Coast, 0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:52.400 I just I'm I'm concerned about the Cardinals. I'm concerned 0:25:52.400 --> 0:25:55.360 about DeAndre Hopkins not getting the football in the right cases. 0:25:55.680 --> 0:25:57.760 I wish you know. I to me, this is like 0:25:57.800 --> 0:26:00.240 a prove it game, Like watch the Cardinals this this 0:26:00.320 --> 0:26:03.040 week and if they win by ten points and I'll 0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:05.560 be like, Okay, here they go. They they've rectified and 0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:09.159 fixed some stuff. But I just this is about asking 0:26:09.280 --> 0:26:12.320 one of these mediocre teams to go in and cover 0:26:12.560 --> 0:26:15.320 anything on the road in the NFL. I don't know. 0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:18.040 I think it's hard on ten o'clock kick early start time. 0:26:18.200 --> 0:26:19.720 It's it's it worries me. 0:26:20.040 --> 0:26:22.000 So I'll make you a deal. We're gonna take this 0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:27.320 one out. However, if the Cardinals massacre the Jets, from 0:26:27.320 --> 0:26:30.439 now on, my takes on the Jets, which are almost 0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:33.000 always going to be whatever. 0:26:32.840 --> 0:26:34.160 It's your team, Yes, it's your team. 0:26:34.160 --> 0:26:36.440 So yeah, whatever the spread is it's too small, Yeah, 0:26:36.440 --> 0:26:38.239 we're gonna We're gonna listen that. We're gonna give that more. 0:26:38.400 --> 0:26:39.679 Look, if you want to stand on the table and 0:26:39.680 --> 0:26:41.520 tell me no, no, no, I love the Cardinals, so I 0:26:41.680 --> 0:26:43.480 I I'm okay. I mean I toldally going into the 0:26:43.520 --> 0:26:44.360 year this is a great team. 0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:45.040 I'm just correcked. 0:26:45.119 --> 0:26:48.920 I'm nervous about my own evaluation of these guys because 0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:51.400 I feel like Kyler Murray is regressing as a passer 0:26:51.800 --> 0:26:54.399 and he came out of the gate for firing and 0:26:54.440 --> 0:26:56.880 it looked awesome. And now it's like all this dink 0:26:56.920 --> 0:27:01.600 and dunk stuff isn't working, and I can't, like, where's Fitzgerald, 0:27:01.720 --> 0:27:05.160 Where's Kirk? Like where is this team right now? Offensively? 0:27:05.440 --> 0:27:07.800 And it's great when Kyler's running, But how long can 0:27:07.840 --> 0:27:09.199 you do that and have him be healthy? 0:27:09.560 --> 0:27:11.520 Yeah? I mean, look, I think two weeks ago, it 0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:13.320 might have been last week where I said, Man, I 0:27:13.400 --> 0:27:15.720 just I think the market just hasn't caught up so 0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:18.920 that the Cardinals are really good now they're they're really struggling, 0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:21.160 I will say, And I'm not pushing towards this game. 0:27:21.600 --> 0:27:23.400 This spread, the contents of spread is seven and I'm 0:27:23.400 --> 0:27:25.800 looking at our bet analyzer, of our betting pros dot 0:27:25.800 --> 0:27:29.480 Com slash NFL slash bet dash analyzer, it is eighty 0:27:29.600 --> 0:27:32.600 that's the most one sided game. Of the people who 0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:34.960 are picking games, it's eighty two percent are on the 0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:38.439 Cardinals to cover a seven point spread against the Jets. 0:27:38.600 --> 0:27:40.800 We'll take it off because as long as I can 0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:42.399 know that in the future, if there's and you might 0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:44.800 be right, I just I can't imagine. I mean Leveon 0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:48.159 Bell is coming back. I don't care. It just doesn't matter. 0:27:48.480 --> 0:27:48.960 They are. 0:27:49.200 --> 0:27:52.800 They are an historically terrible team, they really are. But 0:27:52.880 --> 0:27:54.640 let's go to your next pick then, okay, So well, 0:27:54.800 --> 0:27:56.440 I'm not even gonna put that one in pencil. We'll 0:27:56.440 --> 0:27:58.000 take it off. It's okay with me because I don't 0:27:58.080 --> 0:27:59.760 It's not like I love it, but it was one 0:27:59.800 --> 0:28:01.360 of the one and sosiying, do you have anything else 0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:03.119 that you're eyeing? Because I got a couple more than 0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:04.160 I'm maybe thinking about. 0:28:04.320 --> 0:28:07.000 Not really, I mean, the only other game that I 0:28:07.000 --> 0:28:08.919 think we're gonna wind up taking in the Circa is 0:28:09.000 --> 0:28:10.720 I think we're gonna play that system, play on the 0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:13.080 Bills and lay the three and a half to see 0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:15.920 what the NFL might might come back and do, because 0:28:15.960 --> 0:28:18.800 I just I know we're sitting here on Thursday. 0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:20.199 And what is the what? What is the spread? 0:28:20.400 --> 0:28:21.000 It's three? 0:28:21.600 --> 0:28:22.800 The Titans are laying three. 0:28:22.920 --> 0:28:24.080 No, the Bills are laying three. 0:28:24.280 --> 0:28:27.200 You know that in ours? The Titans are laying one 0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:29.320 and a half to the Bills, right, unless I wrote that? 0:28:29.400 --> 0:28:31.639 Did I write that down wrong? Please tell me I didn't. 0:28:33.240 --> 0:28:33.800 You sent to me? 0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:38.920 I sent to you. Good, look at the signs the Bills. 0:28:38.600 --> 0:28:40.920 Are one and no the Bills are favorite mins one 0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:41.080 and a. 0:28:41.040 --> 0:28:43.880 Half the Bills are favorite. I'm sorry, Okay, that would 0:28:43.880 --> 0:28:45.720 have been That would have been pretty great. That would 0:28:45.720 --> 0:28:46.080 have been great. 0:28:46.560 --> 0:28:50.320 Monster that everybody. I mean, yeah, so I mean to 0:28:50.400 --> 0:28:52.920 me because I don't I'm not so sure that the 0:28:52.920 --> 0:28:55.360 Titans aren't gonna have something drop here that's going to 0:28:55.440 --> 0:28:57.880 be catastrophic on Saturday that the league's gonna come back 0:28:57.920 --> 0:29:00.840 and say, you're gonna forfeit this game. I mean, if 0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:02.920 the Titans aren't going to forfeit this game, no one 0:29:02.960 --> 0:29:04.560 will ever forfeit a game in the NFL, not that 0:29:04.560 --> 0:29:05.000 they want. 0:29:04.880 --> 0:29:06.920 To know what could happen, Matt, you know what could happen? 0:29:07.000 --> 0:29:09.320 What I I forgot who somebody tweeted this sat It 0:29:09.360 --> 0:29:12.920 might have been Todd Furman, somebody tweeted out somebody said. 0:29:12.920 --> 0:29:15.680 What they should do is when you have these games, 0:29:16.160 --> 0:29:19.720 don't give the Titans a loss necessarily. I don't know 0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:21.720 if this would be fair because they're avoiding games with 0:29:21.800 --> 0:29:24.440 tough teams, But you give the Bills a win, like 0:29:24.520 --> 0:29:27.000 the Bills are credited with a win in the game, 0:29:27.200 --> 0:29:30.160 but you don't make the Titans take the loss on it. 0:29:30.200 --> 0:29:32.280 They stay at whatever their record is and you just 0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:33.880 give the posing you can win. Now that's not really 0:29:33.880 --> 0:29:35.800 I mean, they play the Steelers, that's a tough game 0:29:35.840 --> 0:29:36.120 for them. 0:29:36.160 --> 0:29:40.040 So just really congratulations, Jo hate that the books who 0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:42.560 have Bills, who have big liability on the Bills. 0:29:42.760 --> 0:29:43.280 That's true. 0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:47.920 Win total. That's crazy that Titan win totals as well, 0:29:47.960 --> 0:29:49.520 because you'd want them to actually have a loss there 0:29:49.600 --> 0:29:51.720 not a win. I guess it for win to win matter. 0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:53.040 So who do you think is going to win this 0:29:53.080 --> 0:29:53.960 game if they do play? 0:29:53.960 --> 0:29:56.200 Though? Well, you know what I think. 0:29:56.480 --> 0:29:58.640 Yeah, you hate the Bills and you will never bet 0:29:58.680 --> 0:29:59.240 on the Bills. 0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:00.720 You know where I am on this game, and I 0:30:01.040 --> 0:30:03.200 think this is the exposure game. I think this is 0:30:03.240 --> 0:30:07.000 the game where where finally the Titans play a solid 0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:09.440 game and Tannehill plays well because I think I think 0:30:09.440 --> 0:30:12.000 that Bills defense is horrible and I think this Bills 0:30:12.040 --> 0:30:14.320 team is finally gonna play a defense worth something. They 0:30:14.320 --> 0:30:16.960 haven't played a defense worth anything so far this year. 0:30:17.000 --> 0:30:20.360 Everyone they plays garbage defensively. So if I had to 0:30:20.360 --> 0:30:21.800 bet it, give me the three points in the in 0:30:21.840 --> 0:30:23.800 the Titans. If I was betting it, with money. I'll 0:30:23.800 --> 0:30:25.200 take the Titans plus three at home. 0:30:25.360 --> 0:30:27.200 And you're gonna play it in the circle, though, but 0:30:27.240 --> 0:30:28.960 you're gonna play it for the Bills. Is that what 0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:29.440 I mean? 0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:31.360 We're debating it. We're gonna wait all the way till 0:30:31.440 --> 0:30:34.200 right before the deadline to see if the NFL on 0:30:34.280 --> 0:30:36.920 Saturday decides to make the Titans forfeit, and then if 0:30:36.920 --> 0:30:38.760 they don't, then we'll just go ahead and play it. 0:30:38.760 --> 0:30:40.720 We'll either replace it or we'll play it. We'll have 0:30:40.800 --> 0:30:43.240 a way we want to play it. But that's the 0:30:43.360 --> 0:30:44.920 We have four picks and we're kind of waiting on 0:30:44.960 --> 0:30:46.960 the waiting on that game to see what's gonna happen. 0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:50.760 All right, let me give you another play that I 0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:54.640 know you're gonna hate because it goes against Russell Wilson 0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:57.960 and it's the Vikings getting six and a half from 0:30:58.280 --> 0:30:59.680 the Seahawks. 0:31:00.120 --> 0:31:06.120 So in Seattle at home, you're going you're taking Kirk 0:31:06.160 --> 0:31:11.800 Cousins on the road against Ross Well sort of this 0:31:12.440 --> 0:31:13.280 time in prime time. 0:31:14.000 --> 0:31:17.400 Also not a good fact for me. I agree that. 0:31:17.280 --> 0:31:20.640 Russell Wilson with his numbers in primetime, these things are 0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:23.560 at home against Kirk Cousins in primetime. 0:31:23.360 --> 0:31:25.720 These things are not good. These things are not good 0:31:25.760 --> 0:31:28.040 facts for me saying that this is bet where we 0:31:28.080 --> 0:31:32.640 could take. However, let me offer some counterpoints. There are 0:31:32.680 --> 0:31:34.719 a couple of things. Number one, of course, there are 0:31:34.760 --> 0:31:38.240 no fans, so I realized that that may not matter, 0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:40.200 you know, when you think about it. But for me, 0:31:40.720 --> 0:31:42.840 the way I think about that is the huge home 0:31:42.880 --> 0:31:46.480 field advantage that the Seahawks have. This is just more 0:31:46.520 --> 0:31:48.240 that they're comfortable and they don't have to travel. So 0:31:48.400 --> 0:31:50.600 that is something, but it's not nearly the same at 0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:53.800 as what it was in that stadium where it was crazy. 0:31:54.120 --> 0:31:58.440 I think the Vikings have really now changed, and I 0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:01.400 think we didn't see it when we bet the Texans 0:32:01.600 --> 0:32:04.000 last week against them. As bad as the Texans played, 0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:08.640 I think getting Justin Jefferson more involved and essentially taking 0:32:08.680 --> 0:32:11.680 that Stefan Diggs role is going to allow them to 0:32:11.840 --> 0:32:14.240 put up a ton of points and Seattle's Can you 0:32:14.280 --> 0:32:16.440 admit at least that Seattle's defense stinks? 0:32:16.960 --> 0:32:18.960 Oh no, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, there's no debate in 0:32:18.960 --> 0:32:21.160 that Seattle's defense is definitely not good. I'm not going 0:32:21.240 --> 0:32:24.120 to deny that. It's just that Wilson is so on 0:32:24.160 --> 0:32:28.880 this MVP watch that it's something else and that secondary 0:32:28.920 --> 0:32:31.600 for the Vikings is who's guarding dk metcalf? Oh? 0:32:31.600 --> 0:32:34.320 I agree, but who was guarding them last week against 0:32:34.520 --> 0:32:37.200 the Dolphins and they didn't have this? I mean I 0:32:37.240 --> 0:32:39.600 realized their home now and it's prime time. It's not 0:32:39.640 --> 0:32:42.200 like Wilson went. I mean, Wilson not a great game, 0:32:42.320 --> 0:32:44.280 right of course, and they put up plenty of points, 0:32:44.280 --> 0:32:46.760 but that game was kind of that wasn't you know? 0:32:46.840 --> 0:32:49.360 That the Dolphins decide that they're not going to settle 0:32:49.400 --> 0:32:51.400 for all those field goals, and that's a game. I mean, 0:32:51.440 --> 0:32:55.120 that's something that's close. The Seahawks don't usually blow teams out, 0:32:55.200 --> 0:32:57.480 especially teams that can put up a ton of boys. 0:32:57.360 --> 0:33:04.600 Remember points, a blowout, no, but more points. They usually 0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:05.080 play one. 0:33:05.160 --> 0:33:07.560 They usually play one score games. And who have they 0:33:07.600 --> 0:33:10.080 beaten so far this year? Matt like, go through their games? Okay, 0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:10.680 they've beaten the. 0:33:10.600 --> 0:33:13.480 Dolphins, Patriots with cam at home. 0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:16.240 Yeah that was good. That was good. But they barely 0:33:16.280 --> 0:33:20.600 squeaked they barely Okay, chill out, that's fine. Then who 0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:22.360 did they beat? You know, kind of a hard fought game, 0:33:22.440 --> 0:33:25.040 the Falcons, right, garbage? And then who did they beat 0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:29.760 the Cowboys, right, the other team they garbage mostly garbage. 0:33:30.160 --> 0:33:31.920 Was a garbage Yeah, yeah, no, I agree, But the 0:33:31.920 --> 0:33:33.480 same thing can be some of the Bills. I mean, 0:33:33.480 --> 0:33:35.920 you're so good, you're raw, raw, Josh Allen. 0:33:36.040 --> 0:33:38.160 Man, Come on, you know. 0:33:38.640 --> 0:33:42.720 Who's played a tougher schedule, The Bills or the Seahawks. 0:33:43.240 --> 0:33:44.400 Okay, who's the Bills played? 0:33:44.760 --> 0:33:48.360 The Jets, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Rams, 0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:50.960 uh and the and the Raiders. 0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:55.480 Yeah, neither one. But I'm not sitting here and saying 0:33:55.480 --> 0:33:58.200 that Russell Wilson sucks or the Seahawks suck. I'm just 0:33:58.200 --> 0:34:00.360 saying that I don't know necessarily if they are this 0:34:00.480 --> 0:34:02.160 complete juggernaut. 0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:03.440 I'm not gonna make you Kirk Cousins to do anything 0:34:03.440 --> 0:34:04.240 in primetime that is. 0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:06.080 I think that's I think if you're if you're avoiding 0:34:06.120 --> 0:34:08.960 Kirk Cousins outside of a one o'clock Eastern game, you're fine. 0:34:09.600 --> 0:34:11.560 Time that dude bright lights, no way. 0:34:11.640 --> 0:34:13.400 All right, So we're running out of choices here. Let 0:34:13.440 --> 0:34:15.799 me get down a couple other giants getting nine and 0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:18.120 a half from the Cowboys. By the way, I will 0:34:18.120 --> 0:34:20.200 say that on our bed analyzer, the vast majority of 0:34:20.200 --> 0:34:23.160 experts it's the second most heavily sided game, which is 0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:26.360 the Seahawks to cover the seven points. Bread, I'll just 0:34:26.400 --> 0:34:27.920 put that out there. I don't care. I'll do what 0:34:27.960 --> 0:34:30.200 I want. But yeah, yeah, Faith, I'm getting nine and 0:34:30.239 --> 0:34:32.239 a half from the Cowboys. What do you think? 0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:35.600 Why are you so interested in your bad Giants team? 0:34:35.800 --> 0:34:37.719 Is it like I'm not I'm going to the next game. 0:34:37.760 --> 0:34:39.839 I don't like that game. I'm just now saying I'm 0:34:39.840 --> 0:34:42.000 out of games. I thought you were too. Are you? 0:34:42.160 --> 0:34:42.600 Do you have anything? 0:34:42.640 --> 0:34:44.640 I want? Absolutely nothing. I won't watch a single second 0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:46.279 of this game. I want no part of anything to 0:34:46.280 --> 0:34:48.120 do with the Giant, with Dallas and the Giant because 0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:49.919 it's fine because you know what back door is coming, right, 0:34:50.000 --> 0:34:52.680 I mean, Dallas is gonna go up, Everyone's gonna relax, 0:34:52.719 --> 0:34:54.120 and then Danny's gonna start throwing. 0:34:54.160 --> 0:34:56.000 It's going to go into like, oh, I'm on the 0:34:56.040 --> 0:34:57.600 Giants side here. If I have to be on the. 0:34:57.520 --> 0:35:00.319 Side, yeah, I just I don't trust the Cowboy and 0:35:00.360 --> 0:35:02.600 I also don't trust the Giants not to lose my fifty. 0:35:02.640 --> 0:35:04.279 Totally fine, So it's not a game that we need 0:35:04.320 --> 0:35:05.799 to go near at all. I think if you want 0:35:05.800 --> 0:35:09.160 to bet on either one of these teams. You're just insane, insane. 0:35:10.040 --> 0:35:12.880 And again it's minus nine on our consensus lines and 0:35:12.960 --> 0:35:16.200 the experts are fifty one forty nine, so it's completely split, 0:35:16.719 --> 0:35:18.000 all right, So do you have any others or do 0:35:18.000 --> 0:35:19.560 you want to go through their main game? 0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:22.320 What about Sam fran at home with Garoppolo plays? 0:35:22.640 --> 0:35:23.200 Ah? 0:35:23.200 --> 0:35:26.440 What what half our lines? Eight and a half? 0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:30.240 Eight and a half? I worry a little bit again, 0:35:30.320 --> 0:35:32.680 I mean it, you know, didn't look that great the 0:35:32.800 --> 0:35:33.719 last last week. 0:35:33.760 --> 0:35:35.839 But I worry a little moans with two interceptions. 0:35:36.920 --> 0:35:38.799 Yeah, not about the forty nine ers. I mean more 0:35:38.800 --> 0:35:40.960 about the Dolphins. I feel fine with the forty nine ers, 0:35:41.000 --> 0:35:44.800 but again that the forty nine ers, their their defense 0:35:44.880 --> 0:35:48.319 is so decimated and you get the good fits and 0:35:48.400 --> 0:35:50.560 you could easily keep that game within a touchdown right 0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:53.640 by the way, it's that's legitimately. I've sorted it right 0:35:53.680 --> 0:35:58.000 now by most experts side with somebody and fewest experts 0:35:58.040 --> 0:36:02.560 and fifty fifty is Dolphins and forty nine ers covered 0:36:02.560 --> 0:36:04.400 the spread and our bedanaliz our myself, and that's how 0:36:04.440 --> 0:36:06.359 I am. I don't have a good lean for that. 0:36:06.440 --> 0:36:09.279 You like it? Moster may come back as well, and 0:36:09.320 --> 0:36:11.520 Garoppolo may come back. That makes me feel a little better. 0:36:12.040 --> 0:36:14.440 Plays. I'm I think the forty nine ers beat you 0:36:14.520 --> 0:36:16.399 love it? He beat him badly. Yeah, I think Kettle 0:36:16.440 --> 0:36:18.319 has a monster game. I think that that at home. 0:36:18.719 --> 0:36:20.359 I think that's just one of those West Coast East 0:36:20.400 --> 0:36:23.120 coast type matchups that if you get Groppolo back healthy, 0:36:23.680 --> 0:36:25.440 they just run them over and they just kill him. 0:36:25.520 --> 0:36:28.040 But I don't. But again, Groppolo coming back has to play, 0:36:28.080 --> 0:36:29.879 and that's a big question mark still as to whether 0:36:29.960 --> 0:36:31.520 or not he's gonna play. If it's Nick Mullins, I want 0:36:31.520 --> 0:36:32.200 no part of the game. 0:36:32.520 --> 0:36:36.440 All right. How about what do you think about the 0:36:36.600 --> 0:36:40.400 Washington football team getting seven and a half from the Rams. 0:36:40.719 --> 0:36:43.200 See, here's the thing with this quarterback change. I don't 0:36:43.200 --> 0:36:45.960 know what Kyle Allen's gonna do, so, I mean, and 0:36:46.000 --> 0:36:48.560 also it doesn't sound like the hook won't be that 0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:50.879 far away from Allen and they may go to Alex Smith. 0:36:50.920 --> 0:36:53.240 I mean, there are plenty of questions to Ron Rivera 0:36:53.280 --> 0:36:56.080 about Alex Smith's availability, and he was like, Alex Smith 0:36:56.200 --> 0:36:58.239 is cleared to play. And if Alex Smith is, if 0:36:58.239 --> 0:36:59.960 doctors say he can play, he can play. If we 0:37:00.080 --> 0:37:02.600 need him, we're gonna play him. So, I mean, I 0:37:02.600 --> 0:37:05.200 don't know who plays quarterback, So that worries me a 0:37:05.200 --> 0:37:07.480 little bit about what's like what happened with the with 0:37:07.560 --> 0:37:10.680 the Falcons and and Nick Foles coming in. It's like 0:37:11.080 --> 0:37:13.120 all of a sudden, you make a switch and a 0:37:13.200 --> 0:37:15.440 light bulb goes off and one of those guys gets hot, 0:37:15.520 --> 0:37:16.120 and well. 0:37:15.960 --> 0:37:19.000 That's what I'm not I mean, for me with the hook, 0:37:19.360 --> 0:37:23.920 I actually like Washington. Now, Chase Young, I think he's 0:37:23.960 --> 0:37:26.719 gonna play. Oh he's practicing right now. 0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:29.719 J Young plays, then I could probably subscribe to that. 0:37:29.760 --> 0:37:31.200 I could probably, I could probably get. 0:37:31.160 --> 0:37:33.080 I mean, I think I think whoever's out there, Kyle 0:37:33.080 --> 0:37:36.840 Allen Colin's not a great NFL quarterback. And I always 0:37:36.840 --> 0:37:38.640 have to qualify this map because sometimes I feel like 0:37:38.640 --> 0:37:40.880 on the Fancy Bros. Podcast, where like, oh that guy stinks. 0:37:40.920 --> 0:37:43.080 To be clear, anybody playing in the NFL is better 0:37:43.120 --> 0:37:46.319 at playing football than any of us will ever be 0:37:46.400 --> 0:37:48.600 at anything in our lives. So just bear that in mind. 0:37:48.840 --> 0:37:53.000 But Kyle Allen not great. But we're talking about Dayne 0:37:53.080 --> 0:37:57.000 Haskins year, he's an upgrade. Alex Smith would certainly be 0:37:57.400 --> 0:38:01.200 an upgrade. Alan knows that system because he obviously familiar. 0:38:01.560 --> 0:38:04.040 I think it's an upgrade. The Rams really did not 0:38:04.120 --> 0:38:06.640 look impressive last week. You know, we we've been singing 0:38:06.680 --> 0:38:09.280 their praises a little bit. I remember they were getting 0:38:09.920 --> 0:38:13.880 killed right in that game against was Dallas against the Bills. 0:38:13.880 --> 0:38:17.799 They alway killed against that game against the Bills, the Rights, 0:38:17.840 --> 0:38:19.600 and then they just they managed to make it a 0:38:19.640 --> 0:38:21.200 game at the very end. I don't know what happened. Well, 0:38:21.200 --> 0:38:24.800 obviously you think the Bills think, but you know, if 0:38:24.880 --> 0:38:28.360 Young does play, I kind of might be willing to 0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:30.560 take the hook. And again it's it's minus seven ore 0:38:30.600 --> 0:38:33.320 consensus odds seventy two percent are going with the Rams. 0:38:33.680 --> 0:38:37.120 But this feels like, you know, getting more in a touchdown. 0:38:37.360 --> 0:38:40.040 If Young play is going to Alan and having Alex 0:38:40.080 --> 0:38:42.480 Smith by the way as your backup, which is an upgrade, right, 0:38:42.560 --> 0:38:43.960 that might be a game that I would doubtle on. 0:38:44.080 --> 0:38:45.920 Yeah, no, I can get behind that. I can at 0:38:45.960 --> 0:38:47.600 seven and a half. It does come down to come 0:38:47.640 --> 0:38:49.799 down to I need Chase Young out there to get 0:38:49.760 --> 0:38:52.879 after in disrupting who I think is mister happy feet 0:38:52.920 --> 0:38:55.200 and Jared Goff. So I think you need to make 0:38:55.239 --> 0:38:57.759 it make his life a little more miserable than it's been. 0:38:58.080 --> 0:38:59.680 So if you have young out there being able to 0:38:59.680 --> 0:39:02.200 get out to the quarterback and disruption and interrupting the offense, 0:39:02.280 --> 0:39:03.480 is that, yeah, I can get by in seven and 0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:03.799 a half. 0:39:03.840 --> 0:39:06.200 Sure, Okay, all right, so let's let's put that as 0:39:06.200 --> 0:39:08.759 a as a maybe for sure. How how do you 0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:11.080 feel about your team laying ten and a half to 0:39:11.160 --> 0:39:13.399 the Broncos. I'm assuming they play now on Monday night, 0:39:13.719 --> 0:39:15.440 Prime Time ten and a half. 0:39:16.840 --> 0:39:19.080 This is the biggest no play of the week. You 0:39:19.120 --> 0:39:21.160 cannot go near this game. I mean, we don't know 0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:23.759 about CAM. I mean yeah, and then if it's if 0:39:23.760 --> 0:39:26.120 it's not going to be Cam, are they gonna play Hoyer? 0:39:26.840 --> 0:39:28.840 I mean no, They're going to Stidham? All right? Hoyer 0:39:28.920 --> 0:39:30.440 was terrible said that. 0:39:30.600 --> 0:39:33.200 Belichick won't say that. He's been asked point playing three times. Now, 0:39:33.239 --> 0:39:35.160 are you going to go to Stidham if Cam is 0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:35.800 not available? 0:39:35.880 --> 0:39:37.880 How can you go back to Hoyer after what you 0:39:37.920 --> 0:39:38.920 saw against the Chiefs. 0:39:38.960 --> 0:39:42.560 I really think that here's my conspiracy theory, and this 0:39:42.600 --> 0:39:44.200 is could be way off, but here's what I think. 0:39:44.560 --> 0:39:46.800 I think the Patriots know that Jared Stidham's their quarterback 0:39:46.840 --> 0:39:48.879 next year, regardless of what happens with Cam this year. 0:39:48.920 --> 0:39:51.000 And then Cam knows that too, and I think they 0:39:51.040 --> 0:39:53.320 know they've got something. Instead of that they needed another 0:39:53.440 --> 0:39:55.880 year to season him, to get him really up to 0:39:55.960 --> 0:39:58.120 speed and ready to go, kind of like a Patrick 0:39:58.160 --> 0:40:01.000 Mahomes situation where in practice everyone's like, oh my gosh, 0:40:01.040 --> 0:40:03.160 this kid can play now, and we're really excited about it. 0:40:03.600 --> 0:40:07.160 And I think this team is wanting to avoid a 0:40:07.200 --> 0:40:10.000 quarterback controversy if Sidheam goes out and sets the world 0:40:10.040 --> 0:40:13.080 on fire and then Cam comes back and they've already 0:40:13.160 --> 0:40:16.120 given a year to Cam. This is your year. Cam, 0:40:16.280 --> 0:40:18.200 come here and play for a year for us, give 0:40:18.280 --> 0:40:20.839 us everything for one year, and then go and cash in. 0:40:21.040 --> 0:40:23.120 I mean, Cam has been pretty honest, honest. It's like 0:40:23.160 --> 0:40:26.040 it's a business trip. His family hasn't moved there, like 0:40:26.080 --> 0:40:28.840 he has no plans to staying long term, and because 0:40:28.840 --> 0:40:30.960 of that, he has to know that like he he 0:40:31.000 --> 0:40:32.880 hasn't said, like, well, maybe I'm the quarterback in the 0:40:32.920 --> 0:40:34.640 next year and if I play well enough, give me 0:40:34.680 --> 0:40:38.520 a contract. It's like Sideam's the guy. So I think 0:40:38.560 --> 0:40:41.560 that's why they're either a protecting him, not wanting to 0:40:41.560 --> 0:40:44.920 get hurt or be not wanting to cause a quarterback controversy. 0:40:45.320 --> 0:40:47.400 Okay, so you think Sindham's not going to play in 0:40:47.400 --> 0:40:49.400 this game, even if Cam, If Cam, I think. 0:40:49.239 --> 0:40:51.839 They're going to play Hooyer. I think that they're gonna 0:40:51.840 --> 0:40:54.799 be stubborn about this, and I think until he struggles, 0:40:55.120 --> 0:40:57.879 until he sucks, in which he probably will, I think 0:40:57.960 --> 0:40:59.680 that they will then turn around and go to stidheam 0:40:59.760 --> 0:41:01.759 in it in an emergency if they have to, but 0:41:01.840 --> 0:41:03.640 I think it's their preference to play Hoyer. 0:41:04.040 --> 0:41:06.399 And with that, let's say there is no Camp. Let's 0:41:06.440 --> 0:41:08.279 say they do go with Hoyer and maybe we find 0:41:08.280 --> 0:41:11.960 out about it before time locks. There's no Stevan Gilmore 0:41:12.200 --> 0:41:14.800 in this game because he's on COVID and there's probably 0:41:14.880 --> 0:41:17.280 not gonna be locked. So you're dealing with Brett Rippon. 0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:19.080 I get it, but he. 0:41:19.040 --> 0:41:21.200 Didn't look that bad till the second half. 0:41:21.320 --> 0:41:23.399 Would you take and a half ten and a half? 0:41:23.480 --> 0:41:23.680 Yeah? 0:41:23.680 --> 0:41:27.319 I would, yeah, because that was my first instinct, YE 0:41:27.680 --> 0:41:30.400 was I might take the Broncos here. What if it's Stidham, 0:41:30.440 --> 0:41:31.279 though you don't like it. 0:41:31.560 --> 0:41:33.360 If it's Stidham, I'm a little more concerned because I 0:41:33.360 --> 0:41:36.680 think the Hey can play, but without Gilmore, I think 0:41:36.680 --> 0:41:39.360 you're gonna I think Judy could go off, right, So 0:41:39.440 --> 0:41:41.279 I think there's the potential to have a big game 0:41:41.280 --> 0:41:44.600 for the wide receivers against the Patriots defense. And let's 0:41:44.640 --> 0:41:47.160 be frank, the Patriots always put up a huge fight 0:41:47.160 --> 0:41:49.479 against the Chiefs because they spend in you know, three 0:41:49.520 --> 0:41:52.000 weeks prepping for that game, and then the Broncos don't 0:41:52.000 --> 0:41:54.919 get the same attention and you're expecting to run the ball. 0:41:55.080 --> 0:41:57.480 I think Damien Harris is going to be an absolute monster, 0:41:58.000 --> 0:42:00.319 so I think he had one hundred yards. It was 0:42:00.320 --> 0:42:02.920 the first game the Patriots lost. It was They're now 0:42:02.960 --> 0:42:05.759 fifty to two in their last fifty two games when 0:42:05.760 --> 0:42:08.200 they have a rusher goal for for one hundred or 0:42:08.200 --> 0:42:11.600 more yards, so that it is really rare for them 0:42:11.640 --> 0:42:13.520 to have a one hundred yard rusher and lose. So 0:42:13.560 --> 0:42:15.080 I think they're gonna run the ball a lot with 0:42:15.080 --> 0:42:17.600 with Harrods and that shrinks the game, and that could 0:42:17.640 --> 0:42:19.640 factor into a ten point victory. And we went on 0:42:19.680 --> 0:42:22.360 a hook. So I don't mind the ten and a 0:42:22.360 --> 0:42:24.480 half there. I feel that's that's a pretty heavy number. 0:42:25.080 --> 0:42:27.080 Yeah, I might be willing to do that one. Okay, 0:42:27.120 --> 0:42:28.839 let's I think there's only one game that we haven't 0:42:28.840 --> 0:42:33.080 talked about, and that is the Saints ling eight and 0:42:33.120 --> 0:42:34.080 a half to the Charters. 0:42:34.560 --> 0:42:37.640 So this is a I don't like this number, all right. Yeah, 0:42:37.840 --> 0:42:40.600 but justin Herbert getting named the starting quarterback for the 0:42:40.680 --> 0:42:42.680 Chargers for the rest of the year, I think is 0:42:42.719 --> 0:42:46.000 a pretty significant rallying CRI as they head to New Orleans. 0:42:46.200 --> 0:42:48.239 Because it's his guy, it's his job, it's his team. 0:42:48.280 --> 0:42:50.640 There's no more looking over your shoulder, and you get 0:42:50.640 --> 0:42:52.680 to go and build that rapport, in that relationship with 0:42:52.560 --> 0:42:55.000 the with your teammates, and you're Mike Williams and say, hey, 0:42:55.040 --> 0:42:57.359 this is guys Hunter, Henry, this is who we're gonna 0:42:57.360 --> 0:43:00.000 go and this is our guy now. And I don't 0:43:00.160 --> 0:43:02.760 like this Saints offense. Eight and a half's pretty heavy 0:43:02.880 --> 0:43:04.239 if I don't like the game. But if I had 0:43:04.239 --> 0:43:06.040 to bet it, I'll dike the Chargers. 0:43:06.320 --> 0:43:09.560 Wow, Yeah, I don't like it. It's a stay away 0:43:09.560 --> 0:43:12.080 from me. I get it. You're making good points. I 0:43:12.080 --> 0:43:14.480 don't want to you don't want to bet really on 0:43:14.680 --> 0:43:17.360 Kirk Cousins in primetime. I don't really want to bet 0:43:17.360 --> 0:43:19.680 against Drew Breese in primetime a girl, though I know, 0:43:19.760 --> 0:43:21.840 I know there wasn't a good performance a couple of 0:43:21.840 --> 0:43:24.240 weeks ago. Okay, So here's what we're looking at, Matt. 0:43:24.320 --> 0:43:26.520 We got one game that we're both like, yep, we're 0:43:26.560 --> 0:43:28.239 good on, and that's the Colt slang one and a 0:43:28.280 --> 0:43:31.279 half to the Browns. I think we should probably write 0:43:31.280 --> 0:43:33.200 in the Steelers laying seven and a half to the Eagles, 0:43:33.280 --> 0:43:35.360 because I do like that one. So I'll put that 0:43:35.400 --> 0:43:39.560 one in in pen. After that, we've got a bunch 0:43:39.640 --> 0:43:42.000 of sort of questionable ones, and I guess what we're 0:43:42.000 --> 0:43:44.279 gonna do here is we'll maybe we'll just say that 0:43:44.320 --> 0:43:46.319 we'll wait it and we'll tweet it out because we'in 0:43:46.360 --> 0:43:48.440 at Dan Harris Adi Sports Talk, Matt. Here are the 0:43:48.480 --> 0:43:50.920 ones that are under consideration. The Broncos getting ten and 0:43:50.960 --> 0:43:54.360 a half from the Patriots, which is heavily under consideration 0:43:54.520 --> 0:43:56.560 if Cam is out, especially, and then we'll figure that out. 0:43:56.680 --> 0:43:59.560 The Washington football team getting seven and a half from 0:43:59.600 --> 0:44:02.400 the Rent if Chase Young plays. We also kind of 0:44:02.480 --> 0:44:05.000 lean that way. The Bengals getting thirteen and a half 0:44:05.000 --> 0:44:06.600 from the Ravens, which I feel sick about. But I 0:44:06.680 --> 0:44:10.560 am starting to lean that way. And the Panthers getting 0:44:10.560 --> 0:44:13.680 two and a half from the Falcons, which we both 0:44:13.719 --> 0:44:16.480 agree is to public play, and I'm just more on 0:44:16.560 --> 0:44:19.640 the I'm okay to take a public play this year ticket? Yeah, 0:44:19.680 --> 0:44:21.440 oh yeah, so if you're good with that when I 0:44:21.440 --> 0:44:21.759 put it. 0:44:21.719 --> 0:44:23.680 In, but ticket, I mean, I'm okay, I'm okay with it. 0:44:23.719 --> 0:44:26.560 I mean again, it's I was always arguing with friends 0:44:26.560 --> 0:44:29.120 of mine who like the Falcons and have been I 0:44:29.160 --> 0:44:31.640 have one friend in particular that really is a sharp 0:44:31.680 --> 0:44:33.920 guy who loves the Falcons for whatever reason. He thinks 0:44:33.960 --> 0:44:35.839 that they just get tons of value because everybody thinks 0:44:35.880 --> 0:44:38.279 they stink. But I think I think they stink. So 0:44:38.320 --> 0:44:40.040 it's like it's like, great, you could have all the 0:44:40.120 --> 0:44:42.080 value you want on the line and the numbers, but 0:44:42.120 --> 0:44:43.800 I think I just think the Falcons stink. 0:44:44.120 --> 0:44:46.279 Right, and they're so banged up. So I think those 0:44:46.320 --> 0:44:48.520 three the Steelers link seven and a half to the Eagles, 0:44:48.560 --> 0:44:50.160 the Colts getting one and a half, laying one and 0:44:50.160 --> 0:44:52.399 a half to the Browns, and the Panthers getting two 0:44:52.400 --> 0:44:54.719 and a half from the Falcons just pretty much in. 0:44:54.800 --> 0:44:57.720 But real quick. For the record, I have bet against 0:44:57.760 --> 0:45:00.319 the Panthers the last two weeks and lost. Yeah, if 0:45:00.360 --> 0:45:02.160 I bet we bet on them and they lose this 0:45:02.239 --> 0:45:04.520 week out, they become my new Texans. 0:45:04.800 --> 0:45:07.520 That's fine. I'll take that. I'll take that. I don't 0:45:07.680 --> 0:45:08.919 I don't have a good feel for that either. 0:45:09.000 --> 0:45:10.520 I want I'm part of them the rest of the year. 0:45:10.560 --> 0:45:12.920 They are eighty six. We're not dealing with the Panthers anymore. 0:45:13.120 --> 0:45:16.080 I think that's fair. I think that's fair about it. 0:45:16.320 --> 0:45:18.279 All right, that's different Today and Matt mentioned that he 0:45:18.320 --> 0:45:20.000 host a Daily Juice podcast, which I said in the 0:45:20.040 --> 0:45:22.319 beginning to that is a great podcast, and I really 0:45:22.400 --> 0:45:24.560 enjoyed it every morning when you wake up Matt sort 0:45:24.560 --> 0:45:26.520 of and his little community which he's got. Now if 0:45:26.520 --> 0:45:28.160 you go on Twitter you can see hashtag you can 0:45:28.160 --> 0:45:30.319 see everything you go through, the best bets of the day. 0:45:30.320 --> 0:45:33.080 It's a really good listen. Also again eleven a m 0:45:33.280 --> 0:45:36.640 Eastern eight am Pacific on Sunday mornings, Matt does a 0:45:36.640 --> 0:45:39.080 full show, breaking them the slate and giving prop bets. 0:45:39.120 --> 0:45:41.320 I always give him a couple as well in addition 0:45:41.360 --> 0:45:43.520 to what he's been doing. He's been really successful. So 0:45:43.560 --> 0:45:44.200 go check it out. 0:45:44.360 --> 0:45:45.279 Yeah, pretty good too. 0:45:45.320 --> 0:45:46.560 By the way, thanks. 0:45:46.760 --> 0:45:47.000 Thanks. 0:45:47.160 --> 0:45:49.319 I mean it's part. It's like my job is to 0:45:49.400 --> 0:45:51.000 project players for Fantasy. 0:45:51.400 --> 0:45:53.839 I mean you gave me. I I message you about 0:45:53.840 --> 0:45:56.840 the one of the props for the under on Ezekiel 0:45:56.880 --> 0:45:58.600 Elliott that I thought was accurate, and you were you 0:45:58.640 --> 0:46:00.480 nailed it. I mean I said, yeah, it was eighty 0:46:00.520 --> 0:46:02.239 five and a half. You said seventy three. I think 0:46:02.239 --> 0:46:03.200 he ran for fifty five. 0:46:03.520 --> 0:46:05.600 Yeah, yeah, no, I did have that one always makes 0:46:05.600 --> 0:46:07.600 me nervous going against Zeke, but yeah, so I will 0:46:07.600 --> 0:46:09.520 give Mad some as I usually do on Sunday nights 0:46:09.719 --> 0:46:11.600 on Saturday nights, and he can relate to the audience. 0:46:11.600 --> 0:46:14.000 But definitely check it out YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. 0:46:14.080 --> 0:46:17.280 Subscribe you'll see it every live stream every Sunday morning, 0:46:17.320 --> 0:46:20.040 Eastern time at eleven. In the meantime, we are going 0:46:20.120 --> 0:46:21.799 to put in our picks as we'll wait and I'll 0:46:21.800 --> 0:46:23.919 tweet them out when we make our final decisions, usually 0:46:23.960 --> 0:46:26.879 on Saturday night, and we will talk to you next week, 0:46:26.960 --> 0:46:28.239 doing the same thing for week six.