WEBVTT - AFC West Betting Guide: Coaching Changes, Division Winner & Win Totals (Ep. 724) 0:00:01.960 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:04.160 --> 0:00:06.640 your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:11.160 this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead again, 0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:14.200 this time to the AFC Western Division. We're going to 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:17.120 go through the win totals, the big moves, and of 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.720 course the big bets we want to place. But before 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:21.239 we get into any of that, make sure you like 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.360 this video. Make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros. We're 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:27.440 trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this year 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:29.400 and we could do it with your help. I know 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:31.440 that we can, so drop your comments below. What are 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:34.639 you betting on this year in the AFC West And gentlemen, 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:37.720 let's get after it. Andrew Erickson the undertaker, Terrell Furman 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:39.959 Junior here to break it all down and let's jump 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:41.680 in with two feet and talk about some of the 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:44.120 changes here. And there's been a fair amount of them 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.519 in this division. Year over year. The Kansaity Chiefs got 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.159 to another Super Bowl and lost a Super Bowl and 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:54.040 typically that doesn't bode well very much for those teams 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.960 that that happens to. Historically speaking, in the last twenty 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:00.040 five years, but the Las Vegas Raider is probably the 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.800 biggest change because they got a new head coach, Pete Carroll, 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:05.760 a new quarterback, Gino Smith, a new running back Ash 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.000 and Genty, an other wide receiver Jack Bash and Jeremy 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.480 Chin there as well. So, Terrell, let's start with you 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.120 on this one. We have a lot of turnover, a 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.720 new look Vegas team, new coaching staff, new systems, a 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:18.920 lot of new And I think there's one thing we know. 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:21.080 Typically when there's a lot of new, it takes little 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:23.319 time for things to kind of gel. Do you think 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:25.639 that is what is waiting ahead for the Las Vegas 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:26.880 Raiders in twenty twenty five? 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:27.440 Yeah? 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:29.720 I think that is perfectly fine with the Las Vegas 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:32.600 Raiders and Pete Carroll here, because Pete Carroll has been 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:36.520 known to build programs from obscurity and bring them into 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:39.199 semi relevance. I don't need them to be a great 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.000 team here. I don't expect them to be a Super 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:44.240 Bowl winning team or anything like that, but semi relevant, Yeah, 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:47.080 they could be semi relevant. Who's the best semi relevant 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:51.400 quarterback out there? Geno Smith? Now completely relevant? No, that's 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.840 a different conversation, but semi relevant absolutely, and so this team, 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.520 I think they could absolutely be semi relevant, not only 0:01:57.520 --> 0:01:59.160 in this division but across the league. I think they're 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:02.360 gonna win some games. Think that they made upgrades and 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:04.160 they got healthy in the spots that they need to 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.560 get healthy. At the offensive line was an issue for them, 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:08.799 not because of the talent that was there, but because 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:12.360 they were absolutely injured at that spot. Same thing along 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:15.040 the defensive line. They were injured in the trenches all 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.880 last season. Now they have what they feel like is 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.480 competent QB play. They feel like their offensive line and 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.280 defensive lines are healthy and they're better, and so yeah, 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:24.560 I think that this team actually is going to be 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:26.400 able to compete all right. 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:30.200 So certainly an upgrade at quarterback, an upgrade at running 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:32.600 back with Ashton Genty, and an upgrade at head coach 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:34.200 with Pete Carroll, a guy who you know, whatever you 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.639 think of Pig Carrol, he's been a winning football coach. 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:38.359 He's been around the game for a very very long time. 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:40.720 Andrew Rickson, My whole point though, is when there is 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:42.600 a lot of new and a very competitive division, I 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:43.880 do think things are going to be a little tough 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.080 and gonna take some time for things to gel. I 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:48.000 think they're gonna be more competitive, but I just don't 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.560 know eventually if it's gonna, you know, be too little, 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:53.520 too late. I guess that's the point I'm making. But 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:55.440 what do you think about the Raiders and all this 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:57.760 newness surrounding the team in twenty twenty five? 0:02:58.280 --> 0:02:59.960 I think they might be a fun team to back 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:02.200 against the spread because I think they'll probably underdogs and 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:04.280 a lot of games they'll play tight, they'll be competitive. 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:06.320 But when you look it up and down this division, 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:08.080 how can you not rank or, at least in my opinion, 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:09.880 I think you're ranking Pete Carroll and Gino Smith as 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:13.440 the worst head coach quarterback combination. And that's not to 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.280 say that they wouldn't if they were in another division. 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:18.280 You feel so much better about their win total. But 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.120 Harba Herbert, who are you gonna take? I'm gonna take 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:24.679 Carbon Herbert Nix and Sean Payton in year two. Maybe 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:26.959 it's debative of Nicks doesn't has a sophomore slump. I 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:29.360 could see maybe Gino and peekerro who have obviously chemistry 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:33.080 from Seattle, maybe they overlap. But Denver Broncos rosters is 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:35.760 pretty loaded on the defense side of the ball. Offensive 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:37.280 side of the ball, they'd add a lot of pieces 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:39.480 as well. And you have the Chiefs who are always 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.320 at the top. So I think that they are going 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:43.640 to be at one of these teams that we look 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:45.880 at and say they're a lot better than their record 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:47.880 because of the opponents that they have to face. 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:50.400 Now we know the Chargers want to run the football. 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.360 We thought that last year they just really have the 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:55.360 horses to do it. This year, different story. They signed 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:58.000 Nausea Harris as a free agent. They drafted Murray and Hampton. 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:00.600 They also drafted Trey Harris, so hopefully he starts to 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.760 fit in sooner than later. Andrew for this Los Angeles 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.880 Charger team, I think this is a much better look 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.280 in the backfield than it was last year. A team 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.120 that certainly is going to throw the ball to and 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:13.120 Justin Herbert. It's not going to, you know, all of 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.560 a sudden, become the twenty five hundred yard passing guy. 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:17.760 I think everybody was overrating that a little bit last year. 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:19.159 In fact, he could have had a better year if 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:21.839 maybe Quintin Johnson could hold on to a couple more 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:23.800 balls here and there. That would have been nice. But 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.760 looking at what the identity of this team is, and 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:28.919 at least what they desire it to be, this is 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.080 a really good offseason. I feel like for the Chargers 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.400 to get closer to that. I know the playoffs didn't 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.200 end the way they wanted it to. They got embarrassed 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.840 by the Houston Texans, But Andrew, I think they can 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:39.920 really compete for this division this year. What do you 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.919 think about the new backfield and the new piece at 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.000 wide receiver that they're flaunting this year? 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:47.240 I think the Chargers made a lot of great upgrades. 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:49.960 The identity of a Greg Roman offense is to run 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:52.520 the football, and last year they tried to do that 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.440 with not the greatest running back room they had JK. 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:56.000 Dobbinson. 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:57.560 At the start of the year, it looked like he 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.320 was back, but he never ends up playing the entire season, 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:03.160 so he fizzled out. Gus Edwards was the engine behind 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:06.120 this Chargers backfield for too many games. He's not even 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:08.760 on a team right now. So upgrading that to a 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:12.359 stable veteran presence in Najie Harris four straight one thousand 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.960 yard seasons and then throwing in a first round pick 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:19.080 explosive O'maron Hampton. I think that tenfold that they've improved 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:23.200 across that backfield. The offensive line is really really good, 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.680 and you have multiple outs because if you end up 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.919 going in to shootout, well, Justin Herbert kN play in 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:30.640 those types of contests if they're forced to throw the 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:32.440 ball a little bit more so. I also really like 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:33.800 the Chargers heading into the season. 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.039 All right, Terrell, what do you think about this new 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:38.760 backfield at the very least of this Charger team with hardball, 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:41.560 because you know that running the ball, playing defense, that's 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:42.840 kind of his cornerstone. 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:44.919 Yeah. I think the backfield is fine. That's not my 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.080 issues with the Chargers. My issues with the Chargers is 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.359 the offensive line. I didn't think the offensive line was 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.920 good last year at all. Justin Herbert was getting beat 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:55.040 up and it was very up and down with the 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:57.279 run game at times, and you know that's what he 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:58.880 wants to do, run the flipball. I didn't feel like 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:00.839 they got very good offense line play. I thought the 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:03.520 interior of the offensive line was a very much a 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:07.960 downpoint for them, and they really didn't tackle it how 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.400 I would have liked to see them tackle it. We 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.440 know that they have the tackle spots good, Joe alt 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:15.760 or Shawn Slater, that's good, but those three in the middle, 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.440 they haven't figured out any type of continuity there. And 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:22.160 they bring in Makai Becton from this Eagles Super Bowl 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.800 winning guard now apparently, and he's supposed to be this 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.320 big thing for him, but he's still very questionable in 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:30.680 the pass game. He's a lot better in the run game, 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:33.600 so maybe the running the running game still is really solid, 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.000 but he's questionable as a pass rusher, I mean as 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.160 a pass blocker. And so I'm very, very questionable on 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:41.160 what center is going to look like for them, what 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:42.880 the guard spots are going to look like for them, 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.000 because if they don't figure that out in a division 0:06:45.040 --> 0:06:47.559 that has Chris Jones, you're going to be really, really 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:50.479 frustrated more games than not. So I'm not sold on 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:52.719 the Chargers and that is a big contention point. And 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:54.760 then along with the defense, the defense I think is 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:56.000 very questionable this year. 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:58.479 Well, one thing that's not questionable with the defense of 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.760 the Denver Broncos, and it just got better because Jday 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.560 Barron was the big first round pick for them, so 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:07.520 arguably the best secondary in the League one good that 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:11.440 that conversation. They did fortify their backfield as well R J. Harvey, 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.400 they drafted, they brought in JK. Dobbins, and then they 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.680 signed Evan Ingram who had a injury riddle season last year. 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:19.960 So a lot of this looks good in theory. It's 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:22.840 just a matter of does bo Nicks avoid that sophomore slump. 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.040 But from what you saw in the off season of 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.920 the Broncos, are you encouraged or discouraged here? 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:31.880 Terrell, I am encouraged. I think the Broncos have a 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:34.760 chance to knock the Chiefs off finally for the division lead. 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.520 I think this is going to be very competitive between 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:40.760 those two teams. The Broncos have built the team that 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:43.720 has the identity to beat the Chiefs. You have a 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:47.920 good offensive line, you run the football, limit mistakes, and 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:52.160 you play really good defense and they're stacked around all 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:54.760 over the defensive side of ball. So I think this 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.040 is going to be a good opportunity for Bownicks, who 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:58.920 was in the second year in the league, second year 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:01.040 with the systems, second year with this head coach, and 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:03.600 for a lot of rookie qbs, they can't say they 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:05.160 have that Opportunity. 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:07.480 Ericson what are your thoughts on the Broncos. Do you 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.760 think they can actually challenge for this division this year 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:11.320 with the offseason moves that they. 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:14.760 Made, I think that they'll be In the conversation, it's 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:17.120 always tough to knock off the top dog when it 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:18.480 comes to the Kansas City Chiefs, So I know that 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:20.320 they're coming off the Super Bowl loss, and a lot 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.640 of trends are that they're not great coming off losses. 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:24.840 But this Chiefs team has lost the Super Bowl before 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:27.520 and won the division the next year with twelve wins, 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.880 so not impossible that they could still repeat as division champs. 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:33.199 I will say with the Broncos, going away from the 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:36.000 bow Knicks side of things, when Sean Payton has a 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:37.880 top ten defense, which I think, I think it's safe 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:40.880 to project top ten diver Denver Broncos, even if they're 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:43.040 not top five, probably a top ten defense. If you 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.000 look at historically when he's been a head coach, he's 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:49.000 had a top ten defense six times. Those win totals 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.640 have been ten to nine, eleven, twelve, eleven, eleven, so 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:52.520 averaging over. 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:54.079 Ten and a half wins per year. 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:55.719 When he has a top ten defense, and that was 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:57.960 in a lot of seasons that were only sixteen games. 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.439 So the Broncos are going to be flirting with double 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:03.240 digit wins, I think, and I think that means they're 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:04.719 going to be in the conversation we saw them, I 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.480 think Treu made a good point where the Broncos are 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:09.960 made to beat the Chiefs. They should have beat them 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.800 already last year, and then the second game it was 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.520 the Chiefs playing much backups. So theoretically the Broncos should 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:17.520 have actually swept the Chiefs last year. I wasn't for 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:20.200 that missed field or the blocked field goal. So yeah, 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.319 I think that probably it's going to be a split 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.600 between them one and one between the Broncos and Chiefs, 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:27.120 and I think they'll be in contention when it's all 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:27.760 said and done. 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.760 All Right, the Kansasity Chiefs offseason looks like this. Jalen 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.199 Moore at left tackle. They re signed Hollywood Brown and 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.640 Nick Bolton, so brought back those guys, and Josh Simmons 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.240 was the big draft pick. So ericson how would you 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:41.040 grade the Kansas City Chiefs offseason? 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:42.920 I think it was pretty solid. 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.200 I think they addressed the offensive issues, but they had 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:48.280 across the offensive line. Drafting Josh Simmons thought was a 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.400 really good pick, and so far the health reports for 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:52.920 him have been very positive of him being ahead of schedule. 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.400 I know this is basically every single injured players ahead 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:57.560 of schedules, so take it with the grain of saltil 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:00.560 we actually see him play actual snaps and they do 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.760 have Jalen More Like you said, that is there. Okay, 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:04.240 he's the guy that we're going to use at least 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:06.160 in the short term, with Simmons as the long term plan. 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:08.480 But I think just goes back to offensive health. 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:08.640 Right. 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:11.400 Last year, Mahomes didn't have a lot of receivers. They 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:13.960 were either young, inexperienced, or injured most of the time. 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:16.800 So Rashie Rice is back. Hollywood Brown. Yes, not a 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:20.080 difference maker, but as a player that's a full time 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:23.720 contributor on an offense, I think that makes a big difference. 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.199 The Chiefs have traditionally rotated so many of their wide receivers. 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:27.960 I think this year they actually have a top three 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:30.760 with Brown Rice and worry that, Hey, these are our guys. 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:32.360 We don't have to have the. 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:34.839 Justin Watsons of the world out there running actual routes 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.520 that doesn't help Patrick Mahomes. So I think if this 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:40.000 offense is healthier, I think that's going to give them 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.280 a pathway to win the division and win a lot 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.559 of games. So, even if it's not to the extent 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:46.920 of the fifteen wins they had last year, because they 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.199 won all those close games, I think the Chiefs actually 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:52.400 could be better than they were last year but actually 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:53.160 win less games. 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:53.840 Yeah. 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:56.640 I think that's actually a very astute way of putting 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.760 at Terrell. They had so many games where the ball 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:01.679 really did balance their way, or maybe some calls went 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.800 their way, and they did win a ton of games, 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:06.120 and we kept saying, man, this Chiefs team feels a 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:08.920 little paper tiger this year. I don't know if the 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:11.440 Chiefs really did enough to make me feel like they 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:15.080 are back to being the juggernaut of the AFC. I 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.160 still like the Ravens. I've made no bones about that. 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:19.880 I think they're behind the Bills. I don't even know 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:21.880 if they're the best team in this division. Did you 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.640 think that they did enough this offseason to plant their 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:26.280 flag and say, yeah, we still are. 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:31.400 Man, That we were just gets thrown around so loosely. Nowadays, 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:35.280 we had questions about the Chiefs. No, I had no 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:38.840 questions about the Chiefs. I said the Chiefs were like that, 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:40.719 and it didn't matter because the Chiefs were built to 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:42.959 win close games. You have Patrick Mahomes, you have Andy Reid, 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:46.560 They're going to win close games. It's like Mike Tomlin, 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:50.200 where you go out and you believe them in close games. 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:52.600 You thought we did one show where we didn't talk 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:53.440 about Mike Tomlin. 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:57.640 Nope, So just like that, I love them in close games. 0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:59.640 They're going to win close games and that's just an 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.679 edge that they have and it's constantly the case. So no, 0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:04.520 I don't think that was a one time thing. If 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:06.240 you put this team in a close game with Patrick 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:08.680 Mahomes behind the helm, I'm gonna like them regardless. But 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:10.760 what I think that I did like here is the 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:14.199 fact of their question mark here is the offensive line. 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:16.760 And I feel like they did a lot better than 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.120 the Chargers, who I feel like had the same question 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.960 mark along the offensive line. In the offseason, you bring 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:24.680 in more, you bring in Simmons, and you look and 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.520 you say, hey, let's develop this into something. Let's make 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:30.480 this something better, because if we can protect Patrick Mahomes, 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.680 who was sacked I believe thirty something times last year, 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:37.400 thirty six sacks last year, including eleven in the playoffs, 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:41.280 which had six sacks in the Super Bowl. So that's 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:44.560 something that teams clearly were not able to take advantage 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:47.439 of last year because the Chiefs still had got over. 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:49.720 Their win totals still looked really, really good, and everybody 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:53.120 was talking about the Chiefs. So I'm very, very optimistic 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.800 of the Chiefs output this year. Not well in addition 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:59.040 to everything Ericson said about the weapons, but because they 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.760 at least addressed the offensive line and they tried to 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.400 make strides forward. And if that offensive line looks better 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:06.360 than last year, then it's going to be scary. 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:08.880 All right, let's take a look ahead and start to 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:12.280 discuss the win totals. 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Terrell, what's your sweet spot here for 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:14.439 the Denver Bronco win total? 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.520 Yes, over nine and a half wins rather easily here. 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:19.520 I think this is easily a double dishit win team. 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.720 The defense is strong, we talked about it. They're borderline 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.800 top five. Projecting them top ten might be too low. 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:28.320 They might might borderline be a top five defense. You 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.240 have Bownicks, who was in the second year of the 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.000 system with Sean Payton, and he's gonna feel better. It's 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.320 all gonna come a lot easier to him as a quarterback, 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.120 so I think he'll be able to make a lot 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:40.920 better decisions and be an actual game factor for them. 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:43.520 I don't think that he was necessarily a game factor 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.480 for me. I think the team has an overall played 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.680 really really well last year, but this year bo Nicks 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:51.640 can take that leap to where he's actually impacting the 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.280 effects of ends of games, especially when they're down. So 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.720 I really like this Broncos team, and I'm telling you, 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:58.280 I think this Broncos team is going to give the 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.240 Chiefs every bit of run they can for this division. 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:03.640 May they fall up short in the end, possibly, but 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:05.680 I think they're going to give the Chiefs every single 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:07.160 bit of run they can for the division. 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:09.560 I'm where you are, Torell. I like that nine and 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:11.840 a half as well, and you're getting plus money on it. Still, 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:13.560 I think that's a lock, even if bo Nicks should 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.200 regress a little bit of a sophomore and has a 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.160 little bit of a slump and guys, you know, adjust 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.320 to him. I think that defense is that good that 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.000 they get still squeak out ten wins and get above 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:24.720 five hundred there for sure. Ericson, do you have a 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.040 favorite win total here for the Denver Broncos. 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:29.560 I definitely don't like the Broncos as much as you two, 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.200 but I still think that the value is taking me 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.440 over at nine and a half, especially at plus money 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:38.560 odds at plus one ten. And I laid out the 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.600 win totals with Sean Payton when he has a top 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:42.640 ten defense, so that works in his favor and can 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:45.280 mitigate if there is a sophomore slump with bo Nicks. 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.200 And we just look at the two matchups they have, 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:49.200 Denver has a chance to really start hot this year. 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:51.400 They're playing Titans and Colts. Those are their first two 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.280 matchups of the season. So what we saw last year 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:58.400 with Denver, they killed bad teams, They destroyed the bad team. 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:00.880 So I think right now this is an offseason bet 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:02.880 to make because they're probably gonna start two and zero 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:04.920 and you're going to see this number not be a 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:05.920 plus money anymore. 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:07.760 So I'm with you guys on the over. 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.440 Just for clarity, I like the Broncos. I'm not in 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.240 love with the Broncos. There is a team that I 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.520 do love in this division. We'll get to them later. 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.360 Let's talk about the Kansasity Chiefs. Here, the win total 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.000 is at nine and a half. You're getting the over 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:21.920 minus three hundred. 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:22.520 That's a lot. 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:26.000 The win total here under nine and a half plus 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.760 two fifty. That's probably unlikely unless everything just completely disintegrated. 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:31.640 Then you have the other end of the spectrum at 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:33.880 thirteen and a half, where again minus four to ten 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.160 for the under and then plus three thirty for the over. 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.400 Both of those are a hard sell for me. So 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:40.400 we're looking at eleven and a half wins here over 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:43.240 under the overs plus one hundred, the unders minus one twenty. 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:45.840 Andrew Erickson, do you have any strong feelings here about 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:47.440 the Kansas City Chiefs win total. 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:50.360