Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and
Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead again,
Speaker 1: this time to the AFC Western Division. We're going to
Speaker 1: go through the win totals, the big moves, and of
Speaker 1: course the big bets we want to place. But before
Speaker 1: we get into any of that, make sure you like
Speaker 1: this video. Make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros. We're
Speaker 1: trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this year
Speaker 1: and we could do it with your help. I know
Speaker 1: that we can, so drop your comments below. What are
Speaker 1: you betting on this year in the AFC West And gentlemen,
Speaker 1: let's get after it. Andrew Erickson the undertaker, Terrell Furman
Speaker 1: Junior here to break it all down and let's jump
Speaker 1: in with two feet and talk about some of the
Speaker 1: changes here. And there's been a fair amount of them
Speaker 1: in this division. Year over year. The Kansaity Chiefs got
Speaker 1: to another Super Bowl and lost a Super Bowl and
Speaker 1: typically that doesn't bode well very much for those teams
Speaker 1: that that happens to. Historically speaking, in the last twenty
Speaker 1: five years, but the Las Vegas Raider is probably the
Speaker 1: biggest change because they got a new head coach, Pete Carroll,
Speaker 1: a new quarterback, Gino Smith, a new running back Ash
Speaker 1: and Genty, an other wide receiver Jack Bash and Jeremy
Speaker 1: Chin there as well. So, Terrell, let's start with you
Speaker 1: on this one. We have a lot of turnover, a
Speaker 1: new look Vegas team, new coaching staff, new systems, a
Speaker 1: lot of new And I think there's one thing we know.
Speaker 1: Typically when there's a lot of new, it takes little
Speaker 1: time for things to kind of gel. Do you think
Speaker 1: that is what is waiting ahead for the Las Vegas
Speaker 1: Raiders in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I think that is perfectly fine with the Las Vegas
Speaker 3: Raiders and Pete Carroll here, because Pete Carroll has been
Speaker 3: known to build programs from obscurity and bring them into
Speaker 3: semi relevance. I don't need them to be a great
Speaker 3: team here. I don't expect them to be a Super
Speaker 3: Bowl winning team or anything like that, but semi relevant, Yeah,
Speaker 3: they could be semi relevant. Who's the best semi relevant
Speaker 3: quarterback out there? Geno Smith? Now completely relevant? No, that's
Speaker 3: a different conversation, but semi relevant absolutely, and so this team,
Speaker 3: I think they could absolutely be semi relevant, not only
Speaker 3: in this division but across the league. I think they're
Speaker 3: gonna win some games. Think that they made upgrades and
Speaker 3: they got healthy in the spots that they need to
Speaker 3: get healthy. At the offensive line was an issue for them,
Speaker 3: not because of the talent that was there, but because
Speaker 3: they were absolutely injured at that spot. Same thing along
Speaker 3: the defensive line. They were injured in the trenches all
Speaker 3: last season. Now they have what they feel like is
Speaker 3: competent QB play. They feel like their offensive line and
Speaker 3: defensive lines are healthy and they're better, and so yeah,
Speaker 3: I think that this team actually is going to be
Speaker 3: able to compete all right.
Speaker 1: So certainly an upgrade at quarterback, an upgrade at running
Speaker 1: back with Ashton Genty, and an upgrade at head coach
Speaker 1: with Pete Carroll, a guy who you know, whatever you
Speaker 1: think of Pig Carrol, he's been a winning football coach.
Speaker 1: He's been around the game for a very very long time.
Speaker 1: Andrew Rickson, My whole point though, is when there is
Speaker 1: a lot of new and a very competitive division, I
Speaker 1: do think things are going to be a little tough
Speaker 1: and gonna take some time for things to gel. I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be more competitive, but I just don't
Speaker 1: know eventually if it's gonna, you know, be too little,
Speaker 1: too late. I guess that's the point I'm making. But
Speaker 1: what do you think about the Raiders and all this
Speaker 1: newness surrounding the team in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 4: I think they might be a fun team to back
Speaker 4: against the spread because I think they'll probably underdogs and
Speaker 4: a lot of games they'll play tight, they'll be competitive.
Speaker 4: But when you look it up and down this division,
Speaker 4: how can you not rank or, at least in my opinion,
Speaker 4: I think you're ranking Pete Carroll and Gino Smith as
Speaker 4: the worst head coach quarterback combination. And that's not to
Speaker 4: say that they wouldn't if they were in another division.
Speaker 4: You feel so much better about their win total. But
Speaker 4: Harba Herbert, who are you gonna take? I'm gonna take
Speaker 4: Carbon Herbert Nix and Sean Payton in year two. Maybe
Speaker 4: it's debative of Nicks doesn't has a sophomore slump. I
Speaker 4: could see maybe Gino and peekerro who have obviously chemistry
Speaker 4: from Seattle, maybe they overlap. But Denver Broncos rosters is
Speaker 4: pretty loaded on the defense side of the ball. Offensive
Speaker 4: side of the ball, they'd add a lot of pieces
Speaker 4: as well. And you have the Chiefs who are always
Speaker 4: at the top. So I think that they are going
Speaker 4: to be at one of these teams that we look
Speaker 4: at and say they're a lot better than their record
Speaker 4: because of the opponents that they have to face.
Speaker 1: Now we know the Chargers want to run the football.
Speaker 1: We thought that last year they just really have the
Speaker 1: horses to do it. This year, different story. They signed
Speaker 1: Nausea Harris as a free agent. They drafted Murray and Hampton.
Speaker 1: They also drafted Trey Harris, so hopefully he starts to
Speaker 1: fit in sooner than later. Andrew for this Los Angeles
Speaker 1: Charger team, I think this is a much better look
Speaker 1: in the backfield than it was last year. A team
Speaker 1: that certainly is going to throw the ball to and
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert. It's not going to, you know, all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, become the twenty five hundred yard passing guy.
Speaker 1: I think everybody was overrating that a little bit last year.
Speaker 1: In fact, he could have had a better year if
Speaker 1: maybe Quintin Johnson could hold on to a couple more
Speaker 1: balls here and there. That would have been nice. But
Speaker 1: looking at what the identity of this team is, and
Speaker 1: at least what they desire it to be, this is
Speaker 1: a really good offseason. I feel like for the Chargers
Speaker 1: to get closer to that. I know the playoffs didn't
Speaker 1: end the way they wanted it to. They got embarrassed
Speaker 1: by the Houston Texans, But Andrew, I think they can
Speaker 1: really compete for this division this year. What do you
Speaker 1: think about the new backfield and the new piece at
Speaker 1: wide receiver that they're flaunting this year?
Speaker 4: I think the Chargers made a lot of great upgrades.
Speaker 4: The identity of a Greg Roman offense is to run
Speaker 4: the football, and last year they tried to do that
Speaker 4: with not the greatest running back room they had JK.
Speaker 2: Dobbinson.
Speaker 4: At the start of the year, it looked like he
Speaker 4: was back, but he never ends up playing the entire season,
Speaker 4: so he fizzled out. Gus Edwards was the engine behind
Speaker 4: this Chargers backfield for too many games. He's not even
Speaker 4: on a team right now. So upgrading that to a
Speaker 4: stable veteran presence in Najie Harris four straight one thousand
Speaker 4: yard seasons and then throwing in a first round pick
Speaker 4: explosive O'maron Hampton. I think that tenfold that they've improved
Speaker 4: across that backfield. The offensive line is really really good,
Speaker 4: and you have multiple outs because if you end up
Speaker 4: going in to shootout, well, Justin Herbert kN play in
Speaker 4: those types of contests if they're forced to throw the
Speaker 4: ball a little bit more so. I also really like
Speaker 4: the Chargers heading into the season.
Speaker 1: All right, Terrell, what do you think about this new
Speaker 1: backfield at the very least of this Charger team with hardball,
Speaker 1: because you know that running the ball, playing defense, that's
Speaker 1: kind of his cornerstone.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the backfield is fine. That's not my
Speaker 3: issues with the Chargers. My issues with the Chargers is
Speaker 3: the offensive line. I didn't think the offensive line was
Speaker 3: good last year at all. Justin Herbert was getting beat
Speaker 3: up and it was very up and down with the
Speaker 3: run game at times, and you know that's what he
Speaker 3: wants to do, run the flipball. I didn't feel like
Speaker 3: they got very good offense line play. I thought the
Speaker 3: interior of the offensive line was a very much a
Speaker 3: downpoint for them, and they really didn't tackle it how
Speaker 3: I would have liked to see them tackle it. We
Speaker 3: know that they have the tackle spots good, Joe alt
Speaker 3: or Shawn Slater, that's good, but those three in the middle,
Speaker 3: they haven't figured out any type of continuity there. And
Speaker 3: they bring in Makai Becton from this Eagles Super Bowl
Speaker 3: winning guard now apparently, and he's supposed to be this
Speaker 3: big thing for him, but he's still very questionable in
Speaker 3: the pass game. He's a lot better in the run game,
Speaker 3: so maybe the running the running game still is really solid,
Speaker 3: but he's questionable as a pass rusher, I mean as
Speaker 3: a pass blocker. And so I'm very, very questionable on
Speaker 3: what center is going to look like for them, what
Speaker 3: the guard spots are going to look like for them,
Speaker 3: because if they don't figure that out in a division
Speaker 3: that has Chris Jones, you're going to be really, really
Speaker 3: frustrated more games than not. So I'm not sold on
Speaker 3: the Chargers and that is a big contention point. And
Speaker 3: then along with the defense, the defense I think is
Speaker 3: very questionable this year.
Speaker 1: Well, one thing that's not questionable with the defense of
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos, and it just got better because Jday
Speaker 1: Barron was the big first round pick for them, so
Speaker 1: arguably the best secondary in the League one good that
Speaker 1: that conversation. They did fortify their backfield as well R J. Harvey,
Speaker 1: they drafted, they brought in JK. Dobbins, and then they
Speaker 1: signed Evan Ingram who had a injury riddle season last year.
Speaker 1: So a lot of this looks good in theory. It's
Speaker 1: just a matter of does bo Nicks avoid that sophomore slump.
Speaker 1: But from what you saw in the off season of
Speaker 1: the Broncos, are you encouraged or discouraged here?
Speaker 3: Terrell, I am encouraged. I think the Broncos have a
Speaker 3: chance to knock the Chiefs off finally for the division lead.
Speaker 3: I think this is going to be very competitive between
Speaker 3: those two teams. The Broncos have built the team that
Speaker 3: has the identity to beat the Chiefs. You have a
Speaker 3: good offensive line, you run the football, limit mistakes, and
Speaker 3: you play really good defense and they're stacked around all
Speaker 3: over the defensive side of ball. So I think this
Speaker 3: is going to be a good opportunity for Bownicks, who
Speaker 3: was in the second year in the league, second year
Speaker 3: with the systems, second year with this head coach, and
Speaker 3: for a lot of rookie qbs, they can't say they
Speaker 3: have that Opportunity.
Speaker 1: Ericson what are your thoughts on the Broncos. Do you
Speaker 1: think they can actually challenge for this division this year
Speaker 1: with the offseason moves that they.
Speaker 4: Made, I think that they'll be In the conversation, it's
Speaker 4: always tough to knock off the top dog when it
Speaker 4: comes to the Kansas City Chiefs, So I know that
Speaker 4: they're coming off the Super Bowl loss, and a lot
Speaker 4: of trends are that they're not great coming off losses.
Speaker 4: But this Chiefs team has lost the Super Bowl before
Speaker 4: and won the division the next year with twelve wins,
Speaker 4: so not impossible that they could still repeat as division champs.
Speaker 4: I will say with the Broncos, going away from the
Speaker 4: bow Knicks side of things, when Sean Payton has a
Speaker 4: top ten defense, which I think, I think it's safe
Speaker 4: to project top ten diver Denver Broncos, even if they're
Speaker 4: not top five, probably a top ten defense. If you
Speaker 4: look at historically when he's been a head coach, he's
Speaker 4: had a top ten defense six times. Those win totals
Speaker 4: have been ten to nine, eleven, twelve, eleven, eleven, so
Speaker 4: averaging over.
Speaker 2: Ten and a half wins per year.
Speaker 4: When he has a top ten defense, and that was
Speaker 4: in a lot of seasons that were only sixteen games.
Speaker 4: So the Broncos are going to be flirting with double
Speaker 4: digit wins, I think, and I think that means they're
Speaker 4: going to be in the conversation we saw them, I
Speaker 4: think Treu made a good point where the Broncos are
Speaker 4: made to beat the Chiefs. They should have beat them
Speaker 4: already last year, and then the second game it was
Speaker 4: the Chiefs playing much backups. So theoretically the Broncos should
Speaker 4: have actually swept the Chiefs last year. I wasn't for
Speaker 4: that missed field or the blocked field goal. So yeah,
Speaker 4: I think that probably it's going to be a split
Speaker 4: between them one and one between the Broncos and Chiefs,
Speaker 4: and I think they'll be in contention when it's all
Speaker 4: said and done.
Speaker 1: All Right, the Kansasity Chiefs offseason looks like this. Jalen
Speaker 1: Moore at left tackle. They re signed Hollywood Brown and
Speaker 1: Nick Bolton, so brought back those guys, and Josh Simmons
Speaker 1: was the big draft pick. So ericson how would you
Speaker 1: grade the Kansas City Chiefs offseason?
Speaker 2: I think it was pretty solid.
Speaker 4: I think they addressed the offensive issues, but they had
Speaker 4: across the offensive line. Drafting Josh Simmons thought was a
Speaker 4: really good pick, and so far the health reports for
Speaker 4: him have been very positive of him being ahead of schedule.
Speaker 4: I know this is basically every single injured players ahead
Speaker 4: of schedules, so take it with the grain of saltil
Speaker 4: we actually see him play actual snaps and they do
Speaker 4: have Jalen More Like you said, that is there. Okay,
Speaker 4: he's the guy that we're going to use at least
Speaker 4: in the short term, with Simmons as the long term plan.
Speaker 2: But I think just goes back to offensive health.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: Last year, Mahomes didn't have a lot of receivers. They
Speaker 4: were either young, inexperienced, or injured most of the time.
Speaker 4: So Rashie Rice is back. Hollywood Brown. Yes, not a
Speaker 4: difference maker, but as a player that's a full time
Speaker 4: contributor on an offense, I think that makes a big difference.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs have traditionally rotated so many of their wide receivers.
Speaker 4: I think this year they actually have a top three
Speaker 4: with Brown Rice and worry that, Hey, these are our guys.
Speaker 2: We don't have to have the.
Speaker 4: Justin Watsons of the world out there running actual routes
Speaker 4: that doesn't help Patrick Mahomes. So I think if this
Speaker 4: offense is healthier, I think that's going to give them
Speaker 4: a pathway to win the division and win a lot
Speaker 4: of games. So, even if it's not to the extent
Speaker 4: of the fifteen wins they had last year, because they
Speaker 4: won all those close games, I think the Chiefs actually
Speaker 4: could be better than they were last year but actually
Speaker 4: win less games.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think that's actually a very astute way of putting
Speaker 1: at Terrell. They had so many games where the ball
Speaker 1: really did balance their way, or maybe some calls went
Speaker 1: their way, and they did win a ton of games,
Speaker 1: and we kept saying, man, this Chiefs team feels a
Speaker 1: little paper tiger this year. I don't know if the
Speaker 1: Chiefs really did enough to make me feel like they
Speaker 1: are back to being the juggernaut of the AFC. I
Speaker 1: still like the Ravens. I've made no bones about that.
Speaker 1: I think they're behind the Bills. I don't even know
Speaker 1: if they're the best team in this division. Did you
Speaker 1: think that they did enough this offseason to plant their
Speaker 1: flag and say, yeah, we still are.
Speaker 3: Man, That we were just gets thrown around so loosely. Nowadays,
Speaker 3: we had questions about the Chiefs. No, I had no
Speaker 3: questions about the Chiefs. I said the Chiefs were like that,
Speaker 3: and it didn't matter because the Chiefs were built to
Speaker 3: win close games. You have Patrick Mahomes, you have Andy Reid,
Speaker 3: They're going to win close games. It's like Mike Tomlin,
Speaker 3: where you go out and you believe them in close games.
Speaker 1: You thought we did one show where we didn't talk
Speaker 1: about Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 3: Nope, So just like that, I love them in close games.
Speaker 3: They're going to win close games and that's just an
Speaker 3: edge that they have and it's constantly the case. So no,
Speaker 3: I don't think that was a one time thing. If
Speaker 3: you put this team in a close game with Patrick
Speaker 3: Mahomes behind the helm, I'm gonna like them regardless. But
Speaker 3: what I think that I did like here is the
Speaker 3: fact of their question mark here is the offensive line.
Speaker 3: And I feel like they did a lot better than
Speaker 3: the Chargers, who I feel like had the same question
Speaker 3: mark along the offensive line. In the offseason, you bring
Speaker 3: in more, you bring in Simmons, and you look and
Speaker 3: you say, hey, let's develop this into something. Let's make
Speaker 3: this something better, because if we can protect Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 3: who was sacked I believe thirty something times last year,
Speaker 3: thirty six sacks last year, including eleven in the playoffs,
Speaker 3: which had six sacks in the Super Bowl. So that's
Speaker 3: something that teams clearly were not able to take advantage
Speaker 3: of last year because the Chiefs still had got over.
Speaker 3: Their win totals still looked really, really good, and everybody
Speaker 3: was talking about the Chiefs. So I'm very, very optimistic
Speaker 3: of the Chiefs output this year. Not well in addition
Speaker 3: to everything Ericson said about the weapons, but because they
Speaker 3: at least addressed the offensive line and they tried to
Speaker 3: make strides forward. And if that offensive line looks better
Speaker 3: than last year, then it's going to be scary.
Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look ahead and start to
Speaker 1: discuss the win totals. Before we do, a quick reminder
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Speaker 1: win totals first for the Denver Broncos. They range from
Speaker 1: seven and a half nine and a half to eleven
Speaker 1: and a half. Terrell, what's your sweet spot here for
Speaker 1: the Denver Bronco win total?
Speaker 3: Yes, over nine and a half wins rather easily here.
Speaker 3: I think this is easily a double dishit win team.
Speaker 3: The defense is strong, we talked about it. They're borderline
Speaker 3: top five. Projecting them top ten might be too low.
Speaker 3: They might might borderline be a top five defense. You
Speaker 3: have Bownicks, who was in the second year of the
Speaker 3: system with Sean Payton, and he's gonna feel better. It's
Speaker 3: all gonna come a lot easier to him as a quarterback,
Speaker 3: so I think he'll be able to make a lot
Speaker 3: better decisions and be an actual game factor for them.
Speaker 3: I don't think that he was necessarily a game factor
Speaker 3: for me. I think the team has an overall played
Speaker 3: really really well last year, but this year bo Nicks
Speaker 3: can take that leap to where he's actually impacting the
Speaker 3: effects of ends of games, especially when they're down. So
Speaker 3: I really like this Broncos team, and I'm telling you,
Speaker 3: I think this Broncos team is going to give the
Speaker 3: Chiefs every bit of run they can for this division.
Speaker 3: May they fall up short in the end, possibly, but
Speaker 3: I think they're going to give the Chiefs every single
Speaker 3: bit of run they can for the division.
Speaker 1: I'm where you are, Torell. I like that nine and
Speaker 1: a half as well, and you're getting plus money on it. Still,
Speaker 1: I think that's a lock, even if bo Nicks should
Speaker 1: regress a little bit of a sophomore and has a
Speaker 1: little bit of a slump and guys, you know, adjust
Speaker 1: to him. I think that defense is that good that
Speaker 1: they get still squeak out ten wins and get above
Speaker 1: five hundred there for sure. Ericson, do you have a
Speaker 1: favorite win total here for the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4: I definitely don't like the Broncos as much as you two,
Speaker 4: but I still think that the value is taking me
Speaker 4: over at nine and a half, especially at plus money
Speaker 4: odds at plus one ten. And I laid out the
Speaker 4: win totals with Sean Payton when he has a top
Speaker 4: ten defense, so that works in his favor and can
Speaker 4: mitigate if there is a sophomore slump with bo Nicks.
Speaker 4: And we just look at the two matchups they have,
Speaker 4: Denver has a chance to really start hot this year.
Speaker 4: They're playing Titans and Colts. Those are their first two
Speaker 4: matchups of the season. So what we saw last year
Speaker 4: with Denver, they killed bad teams, They destroyed the bad team.
Speaker 4: So I think right now this is an offseason bet
Speaker 4: to make because they're probably gonna start two and zero
Speaker 4: and you're going to see this number not be a
Speaker 4: plus money anymore.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you guys on the over.
Speaker 1: Just for clarity, I like the Broncos. I'm not in
Speaker 1: love with the Broncos. There is a team that I
Speaker 1: do love in this division. We'll get to them later.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Kansasity Chiefs. Here, the win total
Speaker 1: is at nine and a half. You're getting the over
Speaker 1: minus three hundred.
Speaker 2: That's a lot.
Speaker 1: The win total here under nine and a half plus
Speaker 1: two fifty. That's probably unlikely unless everything just completely disintegrated.
Speaker 1: Then you have the other end of the spectrum at
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half, where again minus four to ten
Speaker 1: for the under and then plus three thirty for the over.
Speaker 1: Both of those are a hard sell for me. So
Speaker 1: we're looking at eleven and a half wins here over
Speaker 1: under the overs plus one hundred, the unders minus one twenty.
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson, do you have any strong feelings here about
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs win total.
Speaker 2: I'm going to go over the eleven and a half.
Speaker 4: I think it's more than factoring in the close games
Speaker 4: that they'll probably lose more of than they did last year.
Speaker 4: But it's eleven and a half wins, it's not thirteen
Speaker 4: and a half. I'm not going up that because I
Speaker 4: don't think they're going to reach that type of win
Speaker 4: total after Sun running in all these close games last year.
Speaker 2: So it's going to be an over for me.
Speaker 1: All right, Terrell, you the same where Andrew Erickson is
Speaker 1: right now eleven and a half looking at the over.
Speaker 3: Yes, for me, it's gonna be the better offensive line play.
Speaker 3: I mean, in a down year for the Chiefs offensive line,
Speaker 3: there was a bunch of teams that could have capitalized
Speaker 3: on it throughout the season and they were unable to.
Speaker 3: I don't think that they're going to be able to
Speaker 3: capitalize on the offensive line that I think is going
Speaker 3: to be slightly better here. So I like the Chiefs
Speaker 3: to continue to do what they're doing. I think that
Speaker 3: they're healthier at all the skill positions, and they're gonna look,
Speaker 3: it's gonna look a lot easier for Patrick Mahomes where
Speaker 3: he's going to be able to make the right play
Speaker 3: on those third downs and extend drives and put more
Speaker 3: points on the board. So I like a better year
Speaker 3: for the Chiefs here over eleven and a half wins, all.
Speaker 1: Right, three for three here, I'm almost a stay away,
Speaker 1: but I think they can get to twelve. I think
Speaker 1: that's the number I'm comfortable at. Let's talk about the
Speaker 1: Las Vegas eight is here. Their win totals arrange from
Speaker 1: five and a half, seven and a half, nine and
Speaker 1: a half. That's what you're looking at. The seven and
Speaker 1: a half is probably the easiest one to disseminate here.
Speaker 1: Over seven and a half wins at plus one thirty
Speaker 1: five under at minus one sixty Unlessterrell, you think this
Speaker 1: is a really tough year because this division is so strong,
Speaker 1: in which case you are getting five and a half
Speaker 1: wins under at plus one eighty. That's a big number
Speaker 1: if you think they just aren't ready to compete on
Speaker 1: the main stage with these other three teams.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think this is a really competitive division.
Speaker 3: I like the over seven and a half wins here
Speaker 3: at plus money. I don't think that they're going to
Speaker 3: be a horrible team. I don't think they're going to
Speaker 3: be a great team. I think they're going to be
Speaker 3: right along there. Eight wins, middle of the pack. Eight
Speaker 3: to nine feels like where they finish at. And it's
Speaker 3: really because they are healthy this year. The offensive line
Speaker 3: is healthy, the defensive line is healthy. If they just
Speaker 3: figure out what they're doing at the corner spot, and
Speaker 3: they lock down what's going on in the corners. I
Speaker 3: think that this defense can actually be pretty solid and
Speaker 3: be able to save them in a few games. Whereas
Speaker 3: the offense, I mean, Pete Carroll and Gino Smith have
Speaker 3: been doing this oh we're going to be just okay
Speaker 3: thing for a little while now, and so now they're
Speaker 3: back together, I think is going to look exactly how
Speaker 3: it did. If that offensive line gets healthy and plays
Speaker 3: any better, Jeans might be really really good at running
Speaker 3: back as well. I think that's gonna win them a
Speaker 3: few games. So are they bottoming out at six five wins?
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think they're much closer to
Speaker 3: a eight win scene.
Speaker 1: I think they're a seven win team, So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: think the under at minus one sixty. But really I
Speaker 1: don't like the juice, so it's probably just to stay
Speaker 1: away from me. I think they are a solid seven
Speaker 1: win team. I think they're going to be competitive. They
Speaker 1: might even cover some games, maybe even pull off a
Speaker 1: couple upsets. I just think the division is too tough,
Speaker 1: and we have to play that many games in your division,
Speaker 1: and then you also have to play the Eagles this year,
Speaker 1: they have to play, you know, I don't know if
Speaker 1: they can necessarily score with the Cowboys if the Cowboys
Speaker 1: are actually you know, clicking on offense for one. Some
Speaker 1: look at the rest of the schedule too. They got
Speaker 1: to play the Washington Commanders two. Who knows. Maybe the
Speaker 1: Giants are improved. That defense is certainly much better and
Speaker 1: some of the offensive pieces they added in. I don't
Speaker 1: like the schedule for them. I like a division they're in.
Speaker 1: I think this is an underwhelming seven win team. What
Speaker 1: do you think, Andrew, why don't you break the tie?
Speaker 2: I'm with you.
Speaker 4: Under seven and a half wins. I think it's more
Speaker 4: like a six win team. And it's just the division
Speaker 4: is really tough, and if they were playing in the NFC,
Speaker 4: you'd probably feel much better about that. But you have
Speaker 4: to consider that all of the Gino Smith and Pete Carroll,
Speaker 4: what kind of success they had was in the context
Speaker 4: of the NFC, which is a weaker division or it
Speaker 4: has been a weaker division or conference than the AFC
Speaker 4: because of the lack of top tier quarterbacks. But now
Speaker 4: they're entering a division with three really strong quarterback options.
Speaker 2: With Gino Smith, there now added to the fold.
Speaker 4: So I want to like the Raiders, but I think
Speaker 4: the best approach, and I mentioned this earlier, I think
Speaker 4: they're two more. Want to bet weekly against the spread,
Speaker 4: to cover games, to be competitive, to keep it tight. Absolutely,
Speaker 4: that's how I think you want to approach the Raiders,
Speaker 4: not betting their season long win toll, because I think
Speaker 4: you're going to be pulling your hair out, but you're
Speaker 4: going to be happy you back.
Speaker 2: Them with the points every single week.
Speaker 1: Last one here the Chargers seven and a half, nine
Speaker 1: and a half or eleven and a half. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be bold here. I'm gonna say over eleven and a
Speaker 1: half wins a plus two ninety. That's my favorite spot
Speaker 1: right now for this team. I think they're a twelve,
Speaker 1: maybe even thirteen win team. I'll looking at the schedule here.
Speaker 1: We have a run here where they play the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: the Colts, they play a rookie quarterback in the Vikings.
Speaker 1: Then they played the Tennessee Titans, Terrell's Pittsburgh Steelers, and
Speaker 1: then the Jacksonville Jaguars before their bye week. And I
Speaker 1: just think that's a real great opportunity where they can
Speaker 1: rattle off a bunch of wins, and I just like
Speaker 1: what they've done this offseason. I like how they've addressed
Speaker 1: the backfield. This two good monster. I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be very good. I think Herbert's got a lot more
Speaker 1: to work with. It's another year with Harball in the
Speaker 1: continuity of that system. Andrew, where are you with the
Speaker 1: Chargers win total for this season?
Speaker 4: Well, so much money betting on the Chargers historically, but
Speaker 4: not last year. Last year was profitable because I bet
Speaker 4: this over the win total last year and it worked
Speaker 4: out and was basically based on the fact that Harbaugh
Speaker 4: wins where he goes. He's a seventy percent win rate
Speaker 4: in the NFL, So that's putting him over clearly over
Speaker 4: nine and a half wins in a seventeen game season.
Speaker 4: And entering last year, the Chargers had four straight years
Speaker 4: of failing to hit their win total. Last year they
Speaker 4: hit the over, and I think we're gonna get a
Speaker 4: streak of over over over. So I'm going right back
Speaker 4: to it didn't If it ain't, don't fix it right,
Speaker 4: So taking the over so.
Speaker 1: Which number though, because the nine and a half at
Speaker 1: plus one hundred is is an easier money. I'm saying
Speaker 1: that I'm going to double down on it. I know
Speaker 1: the nine and a half at plus one hundred, and
Speaker 1: then take the eleven and a half at plus two
Speaker 1: ninety two and just throw a unit there too. I
Speaker 1: so heavy units on the nine and a half and
Speaker 1: then just one on the bigger return, just to see
Speaker 1: if it hits. Do you think you agree with that approach.
Speaker 4: I think I'm probably just a little bearish on that,
Speaker 4: just because of the how good the division is. Right,
Speaker 4: so they're dogs to win the division with the Chiefs
Speaker 4: and about equal odds with the Denver Broncos. I can't
Speaker 4: completly say, oh, they're gonna have more wins than Denver,
Speaker 4: So that kind of gets me a little bit nervous.
Speaker 4: Where I get plus plus money at over nine and
Speaker 4: a half wins, I feel really good about that happening,
Speaker 4: and always wonky stuff can always happen at week eighteen.
Speaker 4: Guys are resting players, et cetera, et cetera, And then
Speaker 4: you're I don't want to have one of those bad
Speaker 4: beats in week eighteen.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Terrell, where do you see the Chargers landing
Speaker 1: this year in the win column.
Speaker 3: I'm on the complete other side of you. Both I okay,
Speaker 3: not big on the Chargers at all, and I can't
Speaker 3: take the over on a win total on a team
Speaker 3: who's defense that I'm questioning on what they're gonna look
Speaker 3: like this season. I mean, yes, the coach is cool
Speaker 3: and all, but you go and you don't have Joey
Speaker 3: Bost anymore. So that's something that has to be talked about.
Speaker 3: You look at the secondary, and you lost both of
Speaker 3: your starting corners in the secondary, both of you actually
Speaker 3: lost one of them inside the division, so Fulton moves
Speaker 3: inside the division. You lose a Sance Samuel Junior, and
Speaker 3: the two corners that you signed to replace them are
Speaker 3: Dante Jackson and Benjamin Saint Juics, who were both the
Speaker 3: corners that we targeted when we were talking about player props,
Speaker 3: when we're talking about fantasy, when we're talking about anything
Speaker 3: on the other side.
Speaker 1: Of the ball.
Speaker 3: Last season, those were the two corners for the Steelers
Speaker 3: and the Commanders that we were targeting in games, and
Speaker 3: now those are their two starters. So I just don't
Speaker 3: think that this team is going to be good enough.
Speaker 3: And I don't think that Justin Herbert is a good
Speaker 3: enough quarterback where if you put him in a shootout
Speaker 3: night in night out, that he's gonna constantly get win
Speaker 3: after win after win. So I think that this team
Speaker 3: is going to be a lot close Raiders than they
Speaker 3: are the Chiefs. So I like the under here, all right, So.
Speaker 1: We'll disagree there. I don't think Joey Bosa is too
Speaker 1: much of a loss. I mean, twenty twenty two and
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three can play to combined fourteen games. Last
Speaker 1: year he played fourteen games when we had five sacks.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just think Joey Bosa is at
Speaker 1: least some Yeah, it's fine. He's just overrated and he's
Speaker 1: always hurt, and you know, I want healthy place.
Speaker 2: Is it you hurt right now?
Speaker 1: He is, right, yeah, yeah, he has hurt already, so
Speaker 1: you know, but that's the Bills problem now, not ours.
Speaker 1: Let's get to the division winners, and I think Terrell
Speaker 1: might have showed his hand here. But let's take a
Speaker 1: look at the board. First. The Chiefs are at the
Speaker 1: top of it, minus one fifteen, the Chargers at plus
Speaker 1: three ten. I think everybody knows that's where I'm going,
Speaker 1: So give me the Chargers there, the Broncos at plus
Speaker 1: three forty, and then the Raiders at plus twelve hundred Terrell,
Speaker 1: the board is yours pick the winner of the AFC West.
Speaker 3: Well, for value, I'll just take the Broncos. I think
Speaker 3: that is a good chance that is the Chiefs, and
Speaker 3: I have a better way to play it, and I'll
Speaker 3: talk about that a little bit later, But I'm completely
Speaker 3: sold on the charge. Like well, I'm sold on the
Speaker 3: Chargers not being relevant for this division. I truly think
Speaker 3: that they are a lot closer and they're going to
Speaker 3: be battling for fourth place with the Raiders, who are
Speaker 3: not going to be a bad team. And I'm not
Speaker 3: saying that either one of these two teams are going
Speaker 3: to be a bad team. I think the loser of
Speaker 3: this division has eight seven wins here, and so ultimately,
Speaker 3: I just don't think that they have the defense, clearly
Speaker 3: not the defense to the level of the Broncos. I
Speaker 3: think they could lose both of the games against the Broncos.
Speaker 3: They haven't had any type of consistency at all with
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, So I just don't think that they're one
Speaker 3: of the top two teams in the division, and so
Speaker 3: it's value play Broncos here. But I have a better
Speaker 3: way to play it and I'll save it for the end, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Andrew Erickson. So we got one for the value,
Speaker 1: one for the Chargers. Where are you going?
Speaker 4: She's taking the layup Chiefs one division nine years in
Speaker 4: a row, win every year that Mahomes is a starter,
Speaker 4: So minus one fifteen for it's been a lock since
Speaker 4: the last nine years. So until them, until somebod else happens,
Speaker 4: I'll keep being the Chiefs to win the division.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Look, as a Patriots fan, you should know this. Remember
Speaker 1: when you know they started losing super Bowls and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden that started plucking around there, you know,
Speaker 1: those kind of annoying years. I'm just saying, I think
Speaker 1: we're in that Chiefs window.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: They would always win on these weird tie breakers and
Speaker 4: be a three way tie, the AFC East and the
Speaker 4: Jets and sneaking the Patriots missed the playoffs because they
Speaker 4: want to let they went eleven and five one year
Speaker 4: and they.
Speaker 2: Missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, I guess I Look, I've never been
Speaker 1: the guy that been against the Chiefs after that Super
Speaker 1: Bowl last year. The age of that team where.
Speaker 4: They did it, They've already done this though, they've been
Speaker 4: down this road. They lost the Super Bowl already, and
Speaker 4: they came back and won the division and.
Speaker 2: Lost an embarrassing fashion.
Speaker 3: They lost in embarrassing fashion and came back in one two.
Speaker 2: They did.
Speaker 1: But at the time that division was an absolute joke.
Speaker 1: It is not a joke anymore. You have one of
Speaker 1: the best defenses in that division. You've got a young
Speaker 1: quarterback in Justin Herbert and a very good head coach
Speaker 1: in Hardball on the other team. And then you've got
Speaker 1: a guy in Pete Carroll who's been around the league
Speaker 1: for you know, I don't know, seven hundred years, who
Speaker 1: knows what he's doing. The Chiefs are like a lot
Speaker 1: of great dynasties, which if you go back to the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers dynasty, absolutely great team, obviously, some of
Speaker 1: the most talent you'll ever see on a roster. They
Speaker 1: also benefited from a weak division, so to the Patriots,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of the seventies Steelers. A lot of
Speaker 1: these teams that are dynasties, they benefit from weak divisions,
Speaker 1: and I just don't think the division as nearly as
Speaker 1: weak as it used to be. And they were teams
Speaker 1: last year that really took the Chiefs to their limit.
Speaker 1: The Texans did so, the Broncos do it. I just
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a much different season for them,
Speaker 1: and I still am not sure what that offense is
Speaker 1: going to look like with the pieces it currently has.
Speaker 1: But that's for everybody else in the comments to decide
Speaker 1: and get their takes let them fly on YouTube. Let's
Speaker 1: get to our last segment here, our favorite bets and
Speaker 1: our wildcard crazy bets for the AFC West. I'm going
Speaker 1: to start things off here. I'm gonna take this pretty
Speaker 1: easy here.
Speaker 2: I think the.
Speaker 1: Chargers make the playoffs. I think the Broncos make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: You're getting both of those easy money minus one twenty
Speaker 1: four for the Chargers minus one fourteen for the Broncos. Again,
Speaker 1: I just like easy money, so I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the lay up there. Four thousand passing yards for Justin Herbert, Yes, please,
Speaker 1: you're getting two to one on this. I know they're
Speaker 1: gonna run the football. He's still going to have over
Speaker 1: four thousand passing This is twenty twenty five NFL so
Speaker 1: this is just about him staying healthy. Ap NFL Offensive
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year for twenty twenty five Ash and
Speaker 1: Jendy can get it plus two seventy. I think that's
Speaker 1: a good look there. I think that's worth the investment. Torell,
Speaker 1: you teased us earlier with one of your favorite ways
Speaker 1: to approach this division. So let's unleash the Beast here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's just go ahead and do it top two.
Speaker 3: Any order, doesn't matter what order. Give me the Chiefs
Speaker 3: and the Broncos to be one two in the division.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter what order. It could be Broncos Chiefs,
Speaker 3: it could be Chiefs Broncos. But I'm convinced that I
Speaker 3: don't think that the Chargers are in it for this division.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, it's too many question marks on the defensive
Speaker 3: side of the ball. And I am not big into
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert as everybody else is. You said, Justin Herbert
Speaker 3: a young quarterback. He's five years in. This is year
Speaker 3: six for him. Like, at this point, what point do
Speaker 3: you become a veteran and when do we start giving
Speaker 3: you some more expectations of getting the job done. I
Speaker 3: understand you've been heard a couple of years, but that's
Speaker 3: that's the nature of the Beast. You gotta figure out
Speaker 3: how to get it done and I just don't have
Speaker 3: the faith that if they're in a close game, if
Speaker 3: they're in shootouts, and he's got to constantly be perfect,
Speaker 3: constantly keeps the offense going every single time with the
Speaker 3: defense that isn't gonna give you any breaks. And hopefully
Speaker 3: we'll see if Harball can coach this defense up where
Speaker 3: maybe this is a non starter and they take guys
Speaker 3: like Saint just who I was absolutely flaming when he
Speaker 3: was on the Washington Commanders and make him into a
Speaker 3: really good starting corner for them. But for that, I
Speaker 3: just don't think that they're gonna be in it. I
Speaker 3: really don't. So that's where I'm just putting everything at.
Speaker 3: I think this is a very very good bet where
Speaker 3: I feel very confident that no matter how this division
Speaker 3: pans out, it's gonna be one and two at the top.
Speaker 1: Well, he's about the same age Justin Herbert as Tyler Shuck,
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, So just putting that out there, he's
Speaker 1: twenty six years old, Justin Herbert going on twenty seven.
Speaker 1: I am, I don't remember.
Speaker 3: Comparisons to Tyler Shuck is a good thing.
Speaker 1: Man, I'm saying. You're saying he's been in the league
Speaker 1: so long. He's just twenty six. He came into the
Speaker 1: league when he was twenty two. He did set a
Speaker 1: rookie passing record for yards. He did throw for five
Speaker 1: thousand yards the next season, forty seven hundred the year
Speaker 1: after that, before they bought him out in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: three with a terrible season and he was hurt and
Speaker 1: the coach got fired. And last year was the first
Speaker 1: year in new system. He had thirty eight seventy and
Speaker 1: again the touchdown total was lame, but he didn't have
Speaker 1: a lot of great weapons. He took Keenan Allen away
Speaker 1: from him. Quentin Johnson stings. You know, he was relying
Speaker 1: basically on a rookie Lad McConkie, who was great. I
Speaker 1: love Laden McConkie, but Lad mccakie, Trey Harris, these running backs,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think the Chargers are going to
Speaker 1: be a lot to handle. Let's get Andrew Erickson's take
Speaker 1: here some of his fun bets. What do you have
Speaker 1: here for the AFC West.
Speaker 4: Andrew, Yeah, So I'm backing the Chargers as well. That's
Speaker 4: why I wore my powder blue so Chargers over a
Speaker 4: nine and a half wins plus money I'm going to
Speaker 4: go with the lock that's been the lock for the
Speaker 4: last nine years, Chiefs to win the division at minus
Speaker 4: one fifteen, I will say with the Chief's bet. I
Speaker 4: don't know if I want to bet this right now,
Speaker 4: because if you look at I always try to look
Speaker 4: at some of these early schedules. So Week one, they
Speaker 4: play in Brazil against the Chargers, weird game. Could the
Speaker 4: Chiefs lose that game? I think it's possible. We saw
Speaker 4: last year when they played in Brazil a lot of
Speaker 4: weird things happened. There were guys that were wide open,
Speaker 4: guys were slipping. So I think that there's some mystery,
Speaker 4: a mystique to that game that could result in something
Speaker 4: kind of weird happening. So and then the second game
Speaker 4: they play is against the Eagles, right, so they start
Speaker 4: one in one. I think you can get a better
Speaker 4: record or a better number on them to win the
Speaker 4: division that at minus one fifteen, you might even get
Speaker 4: that plus money if the Broncos, like I said, they
Speaker 4: start out to to Oh, you're gonna see the odds shift.
Speaker 4: So that's going to keep in mind when it comes
Speaker 4: to the player props. I think that this one really
Speaker 4: stuck out to me. And it's not a player that
Speaker 4: I particularly like. I just think the number is it's
Speaker 4: just so low. Naji Harris over five hundred and twenty
Speaker 4: five rushing yards. He has four straight seasons of one
Speaker 4: thousand yards. The projections for betting pros have him going
Speaker 4: over this number. And this is not a high number
Speaker 4: to pass some of the guys that hit this number
Speaker 4: last year that I honestly could not believe. But I
Speaker 4: actually had to look and see Antonio Gibson, Travis etn
Speaker 4: Jerome Ford like that. That's what Najierras has to do
Speaker 4: in a run first offense with the Gregs. It's really
Speaker 4: not a high bar to pass, even with Omaron Hampton
Speaker 4: also there.
Speaker 2: So I just think the number is just too low.
Speaker 4: And then my last one, my fun one is Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes to leave the NFL in passing touchdowns. Last year,
Speaker 4: only Joe Burrow had more red zone pass attempts than
Speaker 4: he did. He was second in the NFL red zone
Speaker 4: pass attempts, second and expected passing touchdowns last season. He
Speaker 4: was third neck category. In twenty twenty three, when Tom
Speaker 4: Brady turned thirty, he threw fifty touchdowns. Mahmes it's gonna
Speaker 4: be thirty this year. Maybe we have another fifty touchdown
Speaker 4: season coming.
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe, And don't forget everybody. If you're gonna betting
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Speaker 1: so you can use real time tracking to determine which
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Speaker 1: Drop your comments below to what's your favorite bet in
Speaker 1: the AFC Western Division? Is it a team total? Is
Speaker 1: it the Chargers to win? Sure it is, whatever it is.
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below let us know what you think,
Speaker 1: and of course, subscribe to the YouTube channel like this video.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the
Speaker 1: game goes on for Terrell and Andrew. I'm Joey P.
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids.
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