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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and

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Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead again,

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Speaker 1: this time to the AFC Western Division. We're going to

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Speaker 1: go through the win totals, the big moves, and of

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Speaker 1: course the big bets we want to place. But before

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Speaker 1: we get into any of that, make sure you like

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Speaker 1: this video. Make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros. We're

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Speaker 1: trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this year

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Speaker 1: and we could do it with your help. I know

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Speaker 1: that we can, so drop your comments below. What are

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Speaker 1: you betting on this year in the AFC West And gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: let's get after it. Andrew Erickson the undertaker, Terrell Furman

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Speaker 1: Junior here to break it all down and let's jump

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Speaker 1: in with two feet and talk about some of the

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Speaker 1: changes here. And there's been a fair amount of them

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Speaker 1: in this division. Year over year. The Kansaity Chiefs got

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Speaker 1: to another Super Bowl and lost a Super Bowl and

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Speaker 1: typically that doesn't bode well very much for those teams

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Speaker 1: that that happens to. Historically speaking, in the last twenty

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Speaker 1: five years, but the Las Vegas Raider is probably the

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Speaker 1: biggest change because they got a new head coach, Pete Carroll,

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Speaker 1: a new quarterback, Gino Smith, a new running back Ash

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Speaker 1: and Genty, an other wide receiver Jack Bash and Jeremy

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Speaker 1: Chin there as well. So, Terrell, let's start with you

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Speaker 1: on this one. We have a lot of turnover, a

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Speaker 1: new look Vegas team, new coaching staff, new systems, a

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Speaker 1: lot of new And I think there's one thing we know.

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Speaker 1: Typically when there's a lot of new, it takes little

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Speaker 1: time for things to kind of gel. Do you think

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Speaker 1: that is what is waiting ahead for the Las Vegas

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Speaker 1: Raiders in twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think that is perfectly fine with the Las Vegas

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Speaker 3: Raiders and Pete Carroll here, because Pete Carroll has been

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Speaker 3: known to build programs from obscurity and bring them into

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Speaker 3: semi relevance. I don't need them to be a great

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Speaker 3: team here. I don't expect them to be a Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl winning team or anything like that, but semi relevant, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: they could be semi relevant. Who's the best semi relevant

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Speaker 3: quarterback out there? Geno Smith? Now completely relevant? No, that's

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Speaker 3: a different conversation, but semi relevant absolutely, and so this team,

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Speaker 3: I think they could absolutely be semi relevant, not only

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Speaker 3: in this division but across the league. I think they're

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Speaker 3: gonna win some games. Think that they made upgrades and

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Speaker 3: they got healthy in the spots that they need to

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Speaker 3: get healthy. At the offensive line was an issue for them,

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Speaker 3: not because of the talent that was there, but because

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Speaker 3: they were absolutely injured at that spot. Same thing along

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Speaker 3: the defensive line. They were injured in the trenches all

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Speaker 3: last season. Now they have what they feel like is

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Speaker 3: competent QB play. They feel like their offensive line and

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Speaker 3: defensive lines are healthy and they're better, and so yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think that this team actually is going to be

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Speaker 3: able to compete all right.

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Speaker 1: So certainly an upgrade at quarterback, an upgrade at running

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Speaker 1: back with Ashton Genty, and an upgrade at head coach

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Speaker 1: with Pete Carroll, a guy who you know, whatever you

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Speaker 1: think of Pig Carrol, he's been a winning football coach.

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Speaker 1: He's been around the game for a very very long time.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Rickson, My whole point though, is when there is

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Speaker 1: a lot of new and a very competitive division, I

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Speaker 1: do think things are going to be a little tough

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Speaker 1: and gonna take some time for things to gel. I

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Speaker 1: think they're gonna be more competitive, but I just don't

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Speaker 1: know eventually if it's gonna, you know, be too little,

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Speaker 1: too late. I guess that's the point I'm making. But

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Speaker 1: what do you think about the Raiders and all this

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Speaker 1: newness surrounding the team in twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 4: I think they might be a fun team to back

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Speaker 4: against the spread because I think they'll probably underdogs and

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Speaker 4: a lot of games they'll play tight, they'll be competitive.

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Speaker 4: But when you look it up and down this division,

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Speaker 4: how can you not rank or, at least in my opinion,

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Speaker 4: I think you're ranking Pete Carroll and Gino Smith as

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Speaker 4: the worst head coach quarterback combination. And that's not to

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Speaker 4: say that they wouldn't if they were in another division.

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Speaker 4: You feel so much better about their win total. But

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Speaker 4: Harba Herbert, who are you gonna take? I'm gonna take

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Speaker 4: Carbon Herbert Nix and Sean Payton in year two. Maybe

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Speaker 4: it's debative of Nicks doesn't has a sophomore slump. I

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Speaker 4: could see maybe Gino and peekerro who have obviously chemistry

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Speaker 4: from Seattle, maybe they overlap. But Denver Broncos rosters is

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Speaker 4: pretty loaded on the defense side of the ball. Offensive

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Speaker 4: side of the ball, they'd add a lot of pieces

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Speaker 4: as well. And you have the Chiefs who are always

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Speaker 4: at the top. So I think that they are going

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Speaker 4: to be at one of these teams that we look

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Speaker 4: at and say they're a lot better than their record

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Speaker 4: because of the opponents that they have to face.

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Speaker 1: Now we know the Chargers want to run the football.

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Speaker 1: We thought that last year they just really have the

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Speaker 1: horses to do it. This year, different story. They signed

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Speaker 1: Nausea Harris as a free agent. They drafted Murray and Hampton.

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Speaker 1: They also drafted Trey Harris, so hopefully he starts to

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Speaker 1: fit in sooner than later. Andrew for this Los Angeles

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Speaker 1: Charger team, I think this is a much better look

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Speaker 1: in the backfield than it was last year. A team

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Speaker 1: that certainly is going to throw the ball to and

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert. It's not going to, you know, all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, become the twenty five hundred yard passing guy.

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Speaker 1: I think everybody was overrating that a little bit last year.

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Speaker 1: In fact, he could have had a better year if

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Speaker 1: maybe Quintin Johnson could hold on to a couple more

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Speaker 1: balls here and there. That would have been nice. But

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Speaker 1: looking at what the identity of this team is, and

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Speaker 1: at least what they desire it to be, this is

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Speaker 1: a really good offseason. I feel like for the Chargers

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Speaker 1: to get closer to that. I know the playoffs didn't

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Speaker 1: end the way they wanted it to. They got embarrassed

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Speaker 1: by the Houston Texans, But Andrew, I think they can

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Speaker 1: really compete for this division this year. What do you

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Speaker 1: think about the new backfield and the new piece at

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Speaker 1: wide receiver that they're flaunting this year?

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Speaker 4: I think the Chargers made a lot of great upgrades.

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Speaker 4: The identity of a Greg Roman offense is to run

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Speaker 4: the football, and last year they tried to do that

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Speaker 4: with not the greatest running back room they had JK.

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Speaker 2: Dobbinson.

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Speaker 4: At the start of the year, it looked like he

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Speaker 4: was back, but he never ends up playing the entire season,

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Speaker 4: so he fizzled out. Gus Edwards was the engine behind

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Speaker 4: this Chargers backfield for too many games. He's not even

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Speaker 4: on a team right now. So upgrading that to a

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Speaker 4: stable veteran presence in Najie Harris four straight one thousand

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Speaker 4: yard seasons and then throwing in a first round pick

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Speaker 4: explosive O'maron Hampton. I think that tenfold that they've improved

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Speaker 4: across that backfield. The offensive line is really really good,

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Speaker 4: and you have multiple outs because if you end up

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Speaker 4: going in to shootout, well, Justin Herbert kN play in

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Speaker 4: those types of contests if they're forced to throw the

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Speaker 4: ball a little bit more so. I also really like

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Speaker 4: the Chargers heading into the season.

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Speaker 1: All right, Terrell, what do you think about this new

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Speaker 1: backfield at the very least of this Charger team with hardball,

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Speaker 1: because you know that running the ball, playing defense, that's

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Speaker 1: kind of his cornerstone.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the backfield is fine. That's not my

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Speaker 3: issues with the Chargers. My issues with the Chargers is

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Speaker 3: the offensive line. I didn't think the offensive line was

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Speaker 3: good last year at all. Justin Herbert was getting beat

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Speaker 3: up and it was very up and down with the

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Speaker 3: run game at times, and you know that's what he

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Speaker 3: wants to do, run the flipball. I didn't feel like

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Speaker 3: they got very good offense line play. I thought the

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Speaker 3: interior of the offensive line was a very much a

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Speaker 3: downpoint for them, and they really didn't tackle it how

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Speaker 3: I would have liked to see them tackle it. We

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Speaker 3: know that they have the tackle spots good, Joe alt

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Speaker 3: or Shawn Slater, that's good, but those three in the middle,

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Speaker 3: they haven't figured out any type of continuity there. And

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Speaker 3: they bring in Makai Becton from this Eagles Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: winning guard now apparently, and he's supposed to be this

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Speaker 3: big thing for him, but he's still very questionable in

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Speaker 3: the pass game. He's a lot better in the run game,

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Speaker 3: so maybe the running the running game still is really solid,

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Speaker 3: but he's questionable as a pass rusher, I mean as

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Speaker 3: a pass blocker. And so I'm very, very questionable on

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Speaker 3: what center is going to look like for them, what

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Speaker 3: the guard spots are going to look like for them,

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Speaker 3: because if they don't figure that out in a division

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Speaker 3: that has Chris Jones, you're going to be really, really

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Speaker 3: frustrated more games than not. So I'm not sold on

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Speaker 3: the Chargers and that is a big contention point. And

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Speaker 3: then along with the defense, the defense I think is

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Speaker 3: very questionable this year.

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Speaker 1: Well, one thing that's not questionable with the defense of

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos, and it just got better because Jday

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Speaker 1: Barron was the big first round pick for them, so

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Speaker 1: arguably the best secondary in the League one good that

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Speaker 1: that conversation. They did fortify their backfield as well R J. Harvey,

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Speaker 1: they drafted, they brought in JK. Dobbins, and then they

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Speaker 1: signed Evan Ingram who had a injury riddle season last year.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of this looks good in theory. It's

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Speaker 1: just a matter of does bo Nicks avoid that sophomore slump.

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Speaker 1: But from what you saw in the off season of

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Speaker 1: the Broncos, are you encouraged or discouraged here?

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Speaker 3: Terrell, I am encouraged. I think the Broncos have a

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Speaker 3: chance to knock the Chiefs off finally for the division lead.

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Speaker 3: I think this is going to be very competitive between

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Speaker 3: those two teams. The Broncos have built the team that

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Speaker 3: has the identity to beat the Chiefs. You have a

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Speaker 3: good offensive line, you run the football, limit mistakes, and

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Speaker 3: you play really good defense and they're stacked around all

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Speaker 3: over the defensive side of ball. So I think this

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Speaker 3: is going to be a good opportunity for Bownicks, who

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Speaker 3: was in the second year in the league, second year

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Speaker 3: with the systems, second year with this head coach, and

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Speaker 3: for a lot of rookie qbs, they can't say they

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Speaker 3: have that Opportunity.

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Speaker 1: Ericson what are your thoughts on the Broncos. Do you

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Speaker 1: think they can actually challenge for this division this year

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Speaker 1: with the offseason moves that they.

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Speaker 4: Made, I think that they'll be In the conversation, it's

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Speaker 4: always tough to knock off the top dog when it

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Speaker 4: comes to the Kansas City Chiefs, So I know that

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Speaker 4: they're coming off the Super Bowl loss, and a lot

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Speaker 4: of trends are that they're not great coming off losses.

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Speaker 4: But this Chiefs team has lost the Super Bowl before

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Speaker 4: and won the division the next year with twelve wins,

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Speaker 4: so not impossible that they could still repeat as division champs.

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Speaker 4: I will say with the Broncos, going away from the

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Speaker 4: bow Knicks side of things, when Sean Payton has a

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Speaker 4: top ten defense, which I think, I think it's safe

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Speaker 4: to project top ten diver Denver Broncos, even if they're

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Speaker 4: not top five, probably a top ten defense. If you

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Speaker 4: look at historically when he's been a head coach, he's

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Speaker 4: had a top ten defense six times. Those win totals

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Speaker 4: have been ten to nine, eleven, twelve, eleven, eleven, so

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Speaker 4: averaging over.

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Speaker 2: Ten and a half wins per year.

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Speaker 4: When he has a top ten defense, and that was

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Speaker 4: in a lot of seasons that were only sixteen games.

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Speaker 4: So the Broncos are going to be flirting with double

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Speaker 4: digit wins, I think, and I think that means they're

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Speaker 4: going to be in the conversation we saw them, I

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Speaker 4: think Treu made a good point where the Broncos are

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Speaker 4: made to beat the Chiefs. They should have beat them

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Speaker 4: already last year, and then the second game it was

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs playing much backups. So theoretically the Broncos should

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Speaker 4: have actually swept the Chiefs last year. I wasn't for

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Speaker 4: that missed field or the blocked field goal. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think that probably it's going to be a split

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Speaker 4: between them one and one between the Broncos and Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: and I think they'll be in contention when it's all

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Speaker 4: said and done.

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Speaker 1: All Right, the Kansasity Chiefs offseason looks like this. Jalen

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Speaker 1: Moore at left tackle. They re signed Hollywood Brown and

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Speaker 1: Nick Bolton, so brought back those guys, and Josh Simmons

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Speaker 1: was the big draft pick. So ericson how would you

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Speaker 1: grade the Kansas City Chiefs offseason?

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Speaker 2: I think it was pretty solid.

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Speaker 4: I think they addressed the offensive issues, but they had

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Speaker 4: across the offensive line. Drafting Josh Simmons thought was a

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Speaker 4: really good pick, and so far the health reports for

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Speaker 4: him have been very positive of him being ahead of schedule.

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Speaker 4: I know this is basically every single injured players ahead

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Speaker 4: of schedules, so take it with the grain of saltil

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Speaker 4: we actually see him play actual snaps and they do

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Speaker 4: have Jalen More Like you said, that is there. Okay,

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Speaker 4: he's the guy that we're going to use at least

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Speaker 4: in the short term, with Simmons as the long term plan.

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Speaker 2: But I think just goes back to offensive health.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: Last year, Mahomes didn't have a lot of receivers. They

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Speaker 4: were either young, inexperienced, or injured most of the time.

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Speaker 4: So Rashie Rice is back. Hollywood Brown. Yes, not a

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Speaker 4: difference maker, but as a player that's a full time

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Speaker 4: contributor on an offense, I think that makes a big difference.

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Speaker 4: The Chiefs have traditionally rotated so many of their wide receivers.

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Speaker 4: I think this year they actually have a top three

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Speaker 4: with Brown Rice and worry that, Hey, these are our guys.

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Speaker 2: We don't have to have the.

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Speaker 4: Justin Watsons of the world out there running actual routes

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Speaker 4: that doesn't help Patrick Mahomes. So I think if this

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Speaker 4: offense is healthier, I think that's going to give them

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Speaker 4: a pathway to win the division and win a lot

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Speaker 4: of games. So, even if it's not to the extent

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Speaker 4: of the fifteen wins they had last year, because they

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Speaker 4: won all those close games, I think the Chiefs actually

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Speaker 4: could be better than they were last year but actually

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Speaker 4: win less games.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think that's actually a very astute way of putting

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Speaker 1: at Terrell. They had so many games where the ball

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Speaker 1: really did balance their way, or maybe some calls went

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Speaker 1: their way, and they did win a ton of games,

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Speaker 1: and we kept saying, man, this Chiefs team feels a

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Speaker 1: little paper tiger this year. I don't know if the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs really did enough to make me feel like they

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Speaker 1: are back to being the juggernaut of the AFC. I

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Speaker 1: still like the Ravens. I've made no bones about that.

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Speaker 1: I think they're behind the Bills. I don't even know

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Speaker 1: if they're the best team in this division. Did you

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Speaker 1: think that they did enough this offseason to plant their

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Speaker 1: flag and say, yeah, we still are.

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Speaker 3: Man, That we were just gets thrown around so loosely. Nowadays,

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Speaker 3: we had questions about the Chiefs. No, I had no

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Speaker 3: questions about the Chiefs. I said the Chiefs were like that,

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Speaker 3: and it didn't matter because the Chiefs were built to

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Speaker 3: win close games. You have Patrick Mahomes, you have Andy Reid,

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Speaker 3: They're going to win close games. It's like Mike Tomlin,

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Speaker 3: where you go out and you believe them in close games.

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Speaker 1: You thought we did one show where we didn't talk

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Speaker 1: about Mike Tomlin.

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Speaker 3: Nope, So just like that, I love them in close games.

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Speaker 3: They're going to win close games and that's just an

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Speaker 3: edge that they have and it's constantly the case. So no,

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Speaker 3: I don't think that was a one time thing. If

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Speaker 3: you put this team in a close game with Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes behind the helm, I'm gonna like them regardless. But

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Speaker 3: what I think that I did like here is the

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Speaker 3: fact of their question mark here is the offensive line.

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Speaker 3: And I feel like they did a lot better than

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Speaker 3: the Chargers, who I feel like had the same question

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Speaker 3: mark along the offensive line. In the offseason, you bring

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Speaker 3: in more, you bring in Simmons, and you look and

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Speaker 3: you say, hey, let's develop this into something. Let's make

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Speaker 3: this something better, because if we can protect Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: who was sacked I believe thirty something times last year,

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Speaker 3: thirty six sacks last year, including eleven in the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: which had six sacks in the Super Bowl. So that's

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Speaker 3: something that teams clearly were not able to take advantage

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Speaker 3: of last year because the Chiefs still had got over.

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Speaker 3: Their win totals still looked really, really good, and everybody

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Speaker 3: was talking about the Chiefs. So I'm very, very optimistic

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Speaker 3: of the Chiefs output this year. Not well in addition

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Speaker 3: to everything Ericson said about the weapons, but because they

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Speaker 3: at least addressed the offensive line and they tried to

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Speaker 3: make strides forward. And if that offensive line looks better

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Speaker 3: than last year, then it's going to be scary.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look ahead and start to

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Speaker 1: discuss the win totals. Before we do, a quick reminder

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Speaker 1: com slash juice. Today, let's take a look at the

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Speaker 1: win totals first for the Denver Broncos. They range from

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Speaker 1: seven and a half nine and a half to eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half. Terrell, what's your sweet spot here for

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Speaker 1: the Denver Bronco win total?

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Speaker 3: Yes, over nine and a half wins rather easily here.

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Speaker 3: I think this is easily a double dishit win team.

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Speaker 3: The defense is strong, we talked about it. They're borderline

340
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Speaker 3: top five. Projecting them top ten might be too low.

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Speaker 3: They might might borderline be a top five defense. You

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Speaker 3: have Bownicks, who was in the second year of the

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Speaker 3: system with Sean Payton, and he's gonna feel better. It's

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Speaker 3: all gonna come a lot easier to him as a quarterback,

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Speaker 3: so I think he'll be able to make a lot

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Speaker 3: better decisions and be an actual game factor for them.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that he was necessarily a game factor

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Speaker 3: for me. I think the team has an overall played

349
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Speaker 3: really really well last year, but this year bo Nicks

350
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,640
Speaker 3: can take that leap to where he's actually impacting the

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Speaker 3: effects of ends of games, especially when they're down. So

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Speaker 3: I really like this Broncos team, and I'm telling you,

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Speaker 3: I think this Broncos team is going to give the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs every bit of run they can for this division.

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Speaker 3: May they fall up short in the end, possibly, but

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Speaker 3: I think they're going to give the Chiefs every single

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Speaker 3: bit of run they can for the division.

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Speaker 1: I'm where you are, Torell. I like that nine and

359
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Speaker 1: a half as well, and you're getting plus money on it. Still,

360
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Speaker 1: I think that's a lock, even if bo Nicks should

361
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Speaker 1: regress a little bit of a sophomore and has a

362
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Speaker 1: little bit of a slump and guys, you know, adjust

363
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Speaker 1: to him. I think that defense is that good that

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Speaker 1: they get still squeak out ten wins and get above

365
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Speaker 1: five hundred there for sure. Ericson, do you have a

366
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Speaker 1: favorite win total here for the Denver Broncos.

367
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Speaker 4: I definitely don't like the Broncos as much as you two,

368
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Speaker 4: but I still think that the value is taking me

369
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Speaker 4: over at nine and a half, especially at plus money

370
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Speaker 4: odds at plus one ten. And I laid out the

371
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Speaker 4: win totals with Sean Payton when he has a top

372
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Speaker 4: ten defense, so that works in his favor and can

373
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Speaker 4: mitigate if there is a sophomore slump with bo Nicks.

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Speaker 4: And we just look at the two matchups they have,

375
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Speaker 4: Denver has a chance to really start hot this year.

376
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Speaker 4: They're playing Titans and Colts. Those are their first two

377
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Speaker 4: matchups of the season. So what we saw last year

378
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Speaker 4: with Denver, they killed bad teams, They destroyed the bad team.

379
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Speaker 4: So I think right now this is an offseason bet

380
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 4: to make because they're probably gonna start two and zero

381
00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:04,920
Speaker 4: and you're going to see this number not be a

382
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Speaker 4: plus money anymore.

383
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Speaker 2: So I'm with you guys on the over.

384
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Speaker 1: Just for clarity, I like the Broncos. I'm not in

385
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Speaker 1: love with the Broncos. There is a team that I

386
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Speaker 1: do love in this division. We'll get to them later.

387
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Kansasity Chiefs. Here, the win total

388
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 1: is at nine and a half. You're getting the over

389
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:21,920
Speaker 1: minus three hundred.

390
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 2: That's a lot.

391
00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,000
Speaker 1: The win total here under nine and a half plus

392
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 1: two fifty. That's probably unlikely unless everything just completely disintegrated.

393
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 1: Then you have the other end of the spectrum at

394
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:33,880
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half, where again minus four to ten

395
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 1: for the under and then plus three thirty for the over.

396
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 1: Both of those are a hard sell for me. So

397
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Speaker 1: we're looking at eleven and a half wins here over

398
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 1: under the overs plus one hundred, the unders minus one twenty.

399
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson, do you have any strong feelings here about

400
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:47,440
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs win total.

401
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 2: I'm going to go over the eleven and a half.

402
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 4: I think it's more than factoring in the close games

403
00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,200
Speaker 4: that they'll probably lose more of than they did last year.

404
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 4: But it's eleven and a half wins, it's not thirteen

405
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:00,320
Speaker 4: and a half. I'm not going up that because I

406
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 4: don't think they're going to reach that type of win

407
00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 4: total after Sun running in all these close games last year.

408
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,360
Speaker 2: So it's going to be an over for me.

409
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 1: All right, Terrell, you the same where Andrew Erickson is

410
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 1: right now eleven and a half looking at the over.

411
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,920
Speaker 3: Yes, for me, it's gonna be the better offensive line play.

412
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 3: I mean, in a down year for the Chiefs offensive line,

413
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,399
Speaker 3: there was a bunch of teams that could have capitalized

414
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 3: on it throughout the season and they were unable to.

415
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:23,919
Speaker 3: I don't think that they're going to be able to

416
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:25,919
Speaker 3: capitalize on the offensive line that I think is going

417
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,280
Speaker 3: to be slightly better here. So I like the Chiefs

418
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,160
Speaker 3: to continue to do what they're doing. I think that

419
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,480
Speaker 3: they're healthier at all the skill positions, and they're gonna look,

420
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 3: it's gonna look a lot easier for Patrick Mahomes where

421
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 3: he's going to be able to make the right play

422
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,640
Speaker 3: on those third downs and extend drives and put more

423
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 3: points on the board. So I like a better year

424
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 3: for the Chiefs here over eleven and a half wins, all.

425
00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,240
Speaker 1: Right, three for three here, I'm almost a stay away,

426
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:48,920
Speaker 1: but I think they can get to twelve. I think

427
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 1: that's the number I'm comfortable at. Let's talk about the

428
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,919
Speaker 1: Las Vegas eight is here. Their win totals arrange from

429
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,359
Speaker 1: five and a half, seven and a half, nine and

430
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: a half. That's what you're looking at. The seven and

431
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 1: a half is probably the easiest one to disseminate here.

432
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 1: Over seven and a half wins at plus one thirty

433
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 1: five under at minus one sixty Unlessterrell, you think this

434
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 1: is a really tough year because this division is so strong,

435
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,320
Speaker 1: in which case you are getting five and a half

436
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 1: wins under at plus one eighty. That's a big number

437
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 1: if you think they just aren't ready to compete on

438
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 1: the main stage with these other three teams.

439
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think this is a really competitive division.

440
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:25,919
Speaker 3: I like the over seven and a half wins here

441
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 3: at plus money. I don't think that they're going to

442
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 3: be a horrible team. I don't think they're going to

443
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:31,159
Speaker 3: be a great team. I think they're going to be

444
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,160
Speaker 3: right along there. Eight wins, middle of the pack. Eight

445
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,160
Speaker 3: to nine feels like where they finish at. And it's

446
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 3: really because they are healthy this year. The offensive line

447
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 3: is healthy, the defensive line is healthy. If they just

448
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 3: figure out what they're doing at the corner spot, and

449
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,119
Speaker 3: they lock down what's going on in the corners. I

450
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,639
Speaker 3: think that this defense can actually be pretty solid and

451
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 3: be able to save them in a few games. Whereas

452
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,119
Speaker 3: the offense, I mean, Pete Carroll and Gino Smith have

453
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 3: been doing this oh we're going to be just okay

454
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,200
Speaker 3: thing for a little while now, and so now they're

455
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 3: back together, I think is going to look exactly how

456
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 3: it did. If that offensive line gets healthy and plays

457
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 3: any better, Jeans might be really really good at running

458
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 3: back as well. I think that's gonna win them a

459
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 3: few games. So are they bottoming out at six five wins?

460
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,119
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think they're much closer to

461
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:13,959
Speaker 3: a eight win scene.

462
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 1: I think they're a seven win team, So I'm gonna

463
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 1: think the under at minus one sixty. But really I

464
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:21,120
Speaker 1: don't like the juice, so it's probably just to stay

465
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 1: away from me. I think they are a solid seven

466
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 1: win team. I think they're going to be competitive. They

467
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 1: might even cover some games, maybe even pull off a

468
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 1: couple upsets. I just think the division is too tough,

469
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 1: and we have to play that many games in your division,

470
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,200
Speaker 1: and then you also have to play the Eagles this year,

471
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 1: they have to play, you know, I don't know if

472
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 1: they can necessarily score with the Cowboys if the Cowboys

473
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 1: are actually you know, clicking on offense for one. Some

474
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,360
Speaker 1: look at the rest of the schedule too. They got

475
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 1: to play the Washington Commanders two. Who knows. Maybe the

476
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,199
Speaker 1: Giants are improved. That defense is certainly much better and

477
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 1: some of the offensive pieces they added in. I don't

478
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 1: like the schedule for them. I like a division they're in.

479
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: I think this is an underwhelming seven win team. What

480
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 1: do you think, Andrew, why don't you break the tie?

481
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 2: I'm with you.

482
00:19:58,119 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 4: Under seven and a half wins. I think it's more

483
00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 4: like a six win team. And it's just the division

484
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 4: is really tough, and if they were playing in the NFC,

485
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 4: you'd probably feel much better about that. But you have

486
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,479
Speaker 4: to consider that all of the Gino Smith and Pete Carroll,

487
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 4: what kind of success they had was in the context

488
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 4: of the NFC, which is a weaker division or it

489
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 4: has been a weaker division or conference than the AFC

490
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 4: because of the lack of top tier quarterbacks. But now

491
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,880
Speaker 4: they're entering a division with three really strong quarterback options.

492
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 2: With Gino Smith, there now added to the fold.

493
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 4: So I want to like the Raiders, but I think

494
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 4: the best approach, and I mentioned this earlier, I think

495
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 4: they're two more. Want to bet weekly against the spread,

496
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 4: to cover games, to be competitive, to keep it tight. Absolutely,

497
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 4: that's how I think you want to approach the Raiders,

498
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 4: not betting their season long win toll, because I think

499
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 4: you're going to be pulling your hair out, but you're

500
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 4: going to be happy you back.

501
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 2: Them with the points every single week.

502
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,239
Speaker 1: Last one here the Chargers seven and a half, nine

503
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 1: and a half or eleven and a half. I'm gonna

504
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 1: be bold here. I'm gonna say over eleven and a

505
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 1: half wins a plus two ninety. That's my favorite spot

506
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: right now for this team. I think they're a twelve,

507
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 1: maybe even thirteen win team. I'll looking at the schedule here.

508
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 1: We have a run here where they play the Dolphins,

509
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 1: the Colts, they play a rookie quarterback in the Vikings.

510
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: Then they played the Tennessee Titans, Terrell's Pittsburgh Steelers, and

511
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,719
Speaker 1: then the Jacksonville Jaguars before their bye week. And I

512
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 1: just think that's a real great opportunity where they can

513
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 1: rattle off a bunch of wins, and I just like

514
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 1: what they've done this offseason. I like how they've addressed

515
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 1: the backfield. This two good monster. I think it's gonna

516
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 1: be very good. I think Herbert's got a lot more

517
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 1: to work with. It's another year with Harball in the

518
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 1: continuity of that system. Andrew, where are you with the

519
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: Chargers win total for this season?

520
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,719
Speaker 4: Well, so much money betting on the Chargers historically, but

521
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 4: not last year. Last year was profitable because I bet

522
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 4: this over the win total last year and it worked

523
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 4: out and was basically based on the fact that Harbaugh

524
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 4: wins where he goes. He's a seventy percent win rate

525
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 4: in the NFL, So that's putting him over clearly over

526
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 4: nine and a half wins in a seventeen game season.

527
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 4: And entering last year, the Chargers had four straight years

528
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 4: of failing to hit their win total. Last year they

529
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 4: hit the over, and I think we're gonna get a

530
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 4: streak of over over over. So I'm going right back

531
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 4: to it didn't If it ain't, don't fix it right,

532
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 4: So taking the over so.

533
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 1: Which number though, because the nine and a half at

534
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: plus one hundred is is an easier money. I'm saying

535
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 1: that I'm going to double down on it. I know

536
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 1: the nine and a half at plus one hundred, and

537
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 1: then take the eleven and a half at plus two

538
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 1: ninety two and just throw a unit there too. I

539
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 1: so heavy units on the nine and a half and

540
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: then just one on the bigger return, just to see

541
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 1: if it hits. Do you think you agree with that approach.

542
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 4: I think I'm probably just a little bearish on that,

543
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 4: just because of the how good the division is. Right,

544
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 4: so they're dogs to win the division with the Chiefs

545
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 4: and about equal odds with the Denver Broncos. I can't

546
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 4: completly say, oh, they're gonna have more wins than Denver,

547
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 4: So that kind of gets me a little bit nervous.

548
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 4: Where I get plus plus money at over nine and

549
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 4: a half wins, I feel really good about that happening,

550
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 4: and always wonky stuff can always happen at week eighteen.

551
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 4: Guys are resting players, et cetera, et cetera, And then

552
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 4: you're I don't want to have one of those bad

553
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 4: beats in week eighteen.

554
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Terrell, where do you see the Chargers landing

555
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 1: this year in the win column.

556
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 3: I'm on the complete other side of you. Both I okay,

557
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 3: not big on the Chargers at all, and I can't

558
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 3: take the over on a win total on a team

559
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 3: who's defense that I'm questioning on what they're gonna look

560
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 3: like this season. I mean, yes, the coach is cool

561
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 3: and all, but you go and you don't have Joey

562
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 3: Bost anymore. So that's something that has to be talked about.

563
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: You look at the secondary, and you lost both of

564
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 3: your starting corners in the secondary, both of you actually

565
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 3: lost one of them inside the division, so Fulton moves

566
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 3: inside the division. You lose a Sance Samuel Junior, and

567
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 3: the two corners that you signed to replace them are

568
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 3: Dante Jackson and Benjamin Saint Juics, who were both the

569
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: corners that we targeted when we were talking about player props,

570
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 3: when we're talking about fantasy, when we're talking about anything

571
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 3: on the other side.

572
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: Of the ball.

573
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: Last season, those were the two corners for the Steelers

574
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 3: and the Commanders that we were targeting in games, and

575
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: now those are their two starters. So I just don't

576
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 3: think that this team is going to be good enough.

577
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 3: And I don't think that Justin Herbert is a good

578
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 3: enough quarterback where if you put him in a shootout

579
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: night in night out, that he's gonna constantly get win

580
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 3: after win after win. So I think that this team

581
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,959
Speaker 3: is going to be a lot close Raiders than they

582
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 3: are the Chiefs. So I like the under here, all right, So.

583
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 1: We'll disagree there. I don't think Joey Bosa is too

584
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 1: much of a loss. I mean, twenty twenty two and

585
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three can play to combined fourteen games. Last

586
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 1: year he played fourteen games when we had five sacks.

587
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just think Joey Bosa is at

588
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 1: least some Yeah, it's fine. He's just overrated and he's

589
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: always hurt, and you know, I want healthy place.

590
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: Is it you hurt right now?

591
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: He is, right, yeah, yeah, he has hurt already, so

592
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: you know, but that's the Bills problem now, not ours.

593
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 1: Let's get to the division winners, and I think Terrell

594
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 1: might have showed his hand here. But let's take a

595
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 1: look at the board. First. The Chiefs are at the

596
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: top of it, minus one fifteen, the Chargers at plus

597
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 1: three ten. I think everybody knows that's where I'm going,

598
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: So give me the Chargers there, the Broncos at plus

599
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 1: three forty, and then the Raiders at plus twelve hundred Terrell,

600
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,959
Speaker 1: the board is yours pick the winner of the AFC West.

601
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 3: Well, for value, I'll just take the Broncos. I think

602
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 3: that is a good chance that is the Chiefs, and

603
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 3: I have a better way to play it, and I'll

604
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: talk about that a little bit later, But I'm completely

605
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 3: sold on the charge. Like well, I'm sold on the

606
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 3: Chargers not being relevant for this division. I truly think

607
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: that they are a lot closer and they're going to

608
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 3: be battling for fourth place with the Raiders, who are

609
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 3: not going to be a bad team. And I'm not

610
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 3: saying that either one of these two teams are going

611
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 3: to be a bad team. I think the loser of

612
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 3: this division has eight seven wins here, and so ultimately,

613
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 3: I just don't think that they have the defense, clearly

614
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 3: not the defense to the level of the Broncos. I

615
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 3: think they could lose both of the games against the Broncos.

616
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 3: They haven't had any type of consistency at all with

617
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, So I just don't think that they're one

618
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 3: of the top two teams in the division, and so

619
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 3: it's value play Broncos here. But I have a better

620
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 3: way to play it and I'll save it for the end, all.

621
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: Right, Andrew Erickson. So we got one for the value,

622
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: one for the Chargers. Where are you going?

623
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 4: She's taking the layup Chiefs one division nine years in

624
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 4: a row, win every year that Mahomes is a starter,

625
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 4: So minus one fifteen for it's been a lock since

626
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 4: the last nine years. So until them, until somebod else happens,

627
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 4: I'll keep being the Chiefs to win the division.

628
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

629
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: Look, as a Patriots fan, you should know this. Remember

630
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 1: when you know they started losing super Bowls and all

631
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: of a sudden that started plucking around there, you know,

632
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: those kind of annoying years. I'm just saying, I think

633
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: we're in that Chiefs window.

634
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 3: Right.

635
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 4: They would always win on these weird tie breakers and

636
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 4: be a three way tie, the AFC East and the

637
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 4: Jets and sneaking the Patriots missed the playoffs because they

638
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 4: want to let they went eleven and five one year

639
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 4: and they.

640
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: Missed the playoffs.

641
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, I guess I Look, I've never been

642
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: the guy that been against the Chiefs after that Super

643
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: Bowl last year. The age of that team where.

644
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,239
Speaker 4: They did it, They've already done this though, they've been

645
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 4: down this road. They lost the Super Bowl already, and

646
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 4: they came back and won the division and.

647
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 2: Lost an embarrassing fashion.

648
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 3: They lost in embarrassing fashion and came back in one two.

649
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 2: They did.

650
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: But at the time that division was an absolute joke.

651
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: It is not a joke anymore. You have one of

652
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: the best defenses in that division. You've got a young

653
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 1: quarterback in Justin Herbert and a very good head coach

654
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,239
Speaker 1: in Hardball on the other team. And then you've got

655
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: a guy in Pete Carroll who's been around the league

656
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: for you know, I don't know, seven hundred years, who

657
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: knows what he's doing. The Chiefs are like a lot

658
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 1: of great dynasties, which if you go back to the

659
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers dynasty, absolutely great team, obviously, some of

660
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,199
Speaker 1: the most talent you'll ever see on a roster. They

661
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: also benefited from a weak division, so to the Patriots,

662
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: you know, sort of the seventies Steelers. A lot of

663
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 1: these teams that are dynasties, they benefit from weak divisions,

664
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 1: and I just don't think the division as nearly as

665
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: weak as it used to be. And they were teams

666
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: last year that really took the Chiefs to their limit.

667
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: The Texans did so, the Broncos do it. I just

668
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a much different season for them,

669
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: and I still am not sure what that offense is

670
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 1: going to look like with the pieces it currently has.

671
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: But that's for everybody else in the comments to decide

672
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: and get their takes let them fly on YouTube. Let's

673
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: get to our last segment here, our favorite bets and

674
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 1: our wildcard crazy bets for the AFC West. I'm going

675
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: to start things off here. I'm gonna take this pretty

676
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: easy here.

677
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 2: I think the.

678
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: Chargers make the playoffs. I think the Broncos make the playoffs.

679
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: You're getting both of those easy money minus one twenty

680
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 1: four for the Chargers minus one fourteen for the Broncos. Again,

681
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: I just like easy money, so I'm going to take

682
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: the lay up there. Four thousand passing yards for Justin Herbert, Yes, please,

683
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: you're getting two to one on this. I know they're

684
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 1: gonna run the football. He's still going to have over

685
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: four thousand passing This is twenty twenty five NFL so

686
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: this is just about him staying healthy. Ap NFL Offensive

687
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year for twenty twenty five Ash and

688
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: Jendy can get it plus two seventy. I think that's

689
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 1: a good look there. I think that's worth the investment. Torell,

690
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 1: you teased us earlier with one of your favorite ways

691
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: to approach this division. So let's unleash the Beast here.

692
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's just go ahead and do it top two.

693
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 3: Any order, doesn't matter what order. Give me the Chiefs

694
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 3: and the Broncos to be one two in the division.

695
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter what order. It could be Broncos Chiefs,

696
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 3: it could be Chiefs Broncos. But I'm convinced that I

697
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 3: don't think that the Chargers are in it for this division.

698
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, it's too many question marks on the defensive

699
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 3: side of the ball. And I am not big into

700
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert as everybody else is. You said, Justin Herbert

701
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: a young quarterback. He's five years in. This is year

702
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 3: six for him. Like, at this point, what point do

703
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 3: you become a veteran and when do we start giving

704
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: you some more expectations of getting the job done. I

705
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 3: understand you've been heard a couple of years, but that's

706
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 3: that's the nature of the Beast. You gotta figure out

707
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 3: how to get it done and I just don't have

708
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 3: the faith that if they're in a close game, if

709
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 3: they're in shootouts, and he's got to constantly be perfect,

710
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 3: constantly keeps the offense going every single time with the

711
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 3: defense that isn't gonna give you any breaks. And hopefully

712
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: we'll see if Harball can coach this defense up where

713
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: maybe this is a non starter and they take guys

714
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 3: like Saint just who I was absolutely flaming when he

715
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: was on the Washington Commanders and make him into a

716
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,959
Speaker 3: really good starting corner for them. But for that, I

717
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 3: just don't think that they're gonna be in it. I

718
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 3: really don't. So that's where I'm just putting everything at.

719
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: I think this is a very very good bet where

720
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 3: I feel very confident that no matter how this division

721
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 3: pans out, it's gonna be one and two at the top.

722
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: Well, he's about the same age Justin Herbert as Tyler Shuck,

723
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, So just putting that out there, he's

724
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: twenty six years old, Justin Herbert going on twenty seven.

725
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: I am, I don't remember.

726
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 3: Comparisons to Tyler Shuck is a good thing.

727
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: Man, I'm saying. You're saying he's been in the league

728
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 1: so long. He's just twenty six. He came into the

729
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: league when he was twenty two. He did set a

730
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: rookie passing record for yards. He did throw for five

731
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 1: thousand yards the next season, forty seven hundred the year

732
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: after that, before they bought him out in twenty twenty

733
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,959
Speaker 1: three with a terrible season and he was hurt and

734
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: the coach got fired. And last year was the first

735
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: year in new system. He had thirty eight seventy and

736
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: again the touchdown total was lame, but he didn't have

737
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: a lot of great weapons. He took Keenan Allen away

738
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 1: from him. Quentin Johnson stings. You know, he was relying

739
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: basically on a rookie Lad McConkie, who was great. I

740
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: love Laden McConkie, but Lad mccakie, Trey Harris, these running backs,

741
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think the Chargers are going to

742
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: be a lot to handle. Let's get Andrew Erickson's take

743
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: here some of his fun bets. What do you have

744
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: here for the AFC West.

745
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 4: Andrew, Yeah, So I'm backing the Chargers as well. That's

746
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 4: why I wore my powder blue so Chargers over a

747
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 4: nine and a half wins plus money I'm going to

748
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 4: go with the lock that's been the lock for the

749
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 4: last nine years, Chiefs to win the division at minus

750
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 4: one fifteen, I will say with the Chief's bet. I

751
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 4: don't know if I want to bet this right now,

752
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 4: because if you look at I always try to look

753
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 4: at some of these early schedules. So Week one, they

754
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 4: play in Brazil against the Chargers, weird game. Could the

755
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 4: Chiefs lose that game? I think it's possible. We saw

756
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 4: last year when they played in Brazil a lot of

757
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 4: weird things happened. There were guys that were wide open,

758
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 4: guys were slipping. So I think that there's some mystery,

759
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 4: a mystique to that game that could result in something

760
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 4: kind of weird happening. So and then the second game

761
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 4: they play is against the Eagles, right, so they start

762
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 4: one in one. I think you can get a better

763
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 4: record or a better number on them to win the

764
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 4: division that at minus one fifteen, you might even get

765
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 4: that plus money if the Broncos, like I said, they

766
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 4: start out to to Oh, you're gonna see the odds shift.

767
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 4: So that's going to keep in mind when it comes

768
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 4: to the player props. I think that this one really

769
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 4: stuck out to me. And it's not a player that

770
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 4: I particularly like. I just think the number is it's

771
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 4: just so low. Naji Harris over five hundred and twenty

772
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 4: five rushing yards. He has four straight seasons of one

773
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 4: thousand yards. The projections for betting pros have him going

774
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 4: over this number. And this is not a high number

775
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 4: to pass some of the guys that hit this number

776
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 4: last year that I honestly could not believe. But I

777
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 4: actually had to look and see Antonio Gibson, Travis etn

778
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,719
Speaker 4: Jerome Ford like that. That's what Najierras has to do

779
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 4: in a run first offense with the Gregs. It's really

780
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 4: not a high bar to pass, even with Omaron Hampton

781
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 4: also there.

782
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 2: So I just think the number is just too low.

783
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 4: And then my last one, my fun one is Patrick

784
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 4: Mahomes to leave the NFL in passing touchdowns. Last year,

785
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 4: only Joe Burrow had more red zone pass attempts than

786
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: he did. He was second in the NFL red zone

787
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 4: pass attempts, second and expected passing touchdowns last season. He

788
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 4: was third neck category. In twenty twenty three, when Tom

789
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 4: Brady turned thirty, he threw fifty touchdowns. Mahmes it's gonna

790
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 4: be thirty this year. Maybe we have another fifty touchdown

791
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 4: season coming.

792
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe, And don't forget everybody. If you're gonna betting

793
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: this year, make sure you're using the Betting Pros app.

794
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: Download it today, it's free. You can sink your sportsbooks

795
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: for free too, and you could use tools like the

796
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: Betting Pros Picktracker and of course the Picktracker. It sinks

797
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: to your sports book, the tailor tyali which picks will

798
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: hit for you and which have missed. Plus, it gives

799
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: you a live look at what the public is doing,

800
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: so you can use real time tracking to determine which

801
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: place to make and which ones to fade. So track

802
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: your picks today on Betting Pros use the Picktracker, or

803
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: go to Betting pros dot com slash picktracking, or just

804
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: use the Betting Pros app right now. Download that boy

805
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: today and use the tools to bet smarter and not harder.

806
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below to what's your favorite bet in

807
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: the AFC Western Division? Is it a team total? Is

808
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: it the Chargers to win? Sure it is, whatever it is.

809
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below let us know what you think,

810
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: and of course, subscribe to the YouTube channel like this video.

811
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

812
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: game goes on for Terrell and Andrew. I'm Joey P.

813
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids.

814
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

815
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,280
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816
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,720
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817
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,640
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818
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:39,400
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819
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,959
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