WEBVTT - What the Nobels Tell Us About the World Right Now 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:30.564 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:30.604 --> 0:00:34.724 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm Nate Silver. Today 0:00:34.764 --> 0:00:37.164 on the show, Nate, we'll be talking about a topic 0:00:37.204 --> 0:00:41.404 that I think is really exciting. Every single year, I'm 0:00:41.484 --> 0:00:46.604 always eagerly awaiting the announcements of the Nobel Prizes, not 0:00:46.764 --> 0:00:50.324 because I'm in any danger of winning one, but because 0:00:50.364 --> 0:00:53.124 I think you can learn a lot from the people 0:00:53.164 --> 0:00:56.644 who win the awards. So all of the Nobel Prizes 0:00:56.684 --> 0:01:00.724 for twenty twenty five have been given out, and I'm excited, 0:01:00.804 --> 0:01:04.284 probably more excited than you are in Nate to dive 0:01:04.524 --> 0:01:08.484 into the recipients and some of the broader implications and 0:01:08.524 --> 0:01:10.844 broader history of the Nobel Prize. 0:01:11.204 --> 0:01:14.764 Yeah, you know, look, I think you owe me not 0:01:14.764 --> 0:01:16.324 to be too gender astorre. I think you owe me 0:01:16.364 --> 0:01:21.564 as sports focused episodes and Maria. But yes, I do 0:01:21.644 --> 0:01:24.204 have some thoughts, particularly on the economics Nobel Prize, where 0:01:24.204 --> 0:01:26.324 I'm an admirer of one of the recipients. 0:01:32.124 --> 0:01:36.484 So Nobel Prizes are something that I actually always follow avidly. 0:01:36.764 --> 0:01:39.324 That makes one of us I think that. 0:01:39.244 --> 0:01:43.644 They're fascinating, and I think so for several reasons. First, 0:01:43.764 --> 0:01:49.884 like when we get the Nobel Prizes in you know, medicine, chemistry, physics, 0:01:49.924 --> 0:01:53.484 all of that stuff, I get to learn something about 0:01:53.484 --> 0:01:55.724 the world because it's usually for shit that I had 0:01:55.764 --> 0:01:57.964 no idea existed, and I'm like, oh my god, this 0:01:58.084 --> 0:02:00.924 is so cool. Right, You've been doing all this amazing research, 0:02:00.964 --> 0:02:03.364 and that's really interesting, and it's a way, you know, 0:02:03.444 --> 0:02:05.684 of educating myself about things that I don't know about. 0:02:05.964 --> 0:02:10.044 Nobel Prize in literature I'm always really excited about because 0:02:10.564 --> 0:02:13.004 if it's someone who I know and love, I'm like, yes, 0:02:13.044 --> 0:02:15.284 you know, finally they get recognition. And if it's someone 0:02:15.284 --> 0:02:18.444 whose work I've never read, I'm like, wow, okay, you 0:02:18.444 --> 0:02:21.964 know this is cool. Something else for me. Economics, I 0:02:21.964 --> 0:02:25.524 also think is always just interesting to figure out, you know, 0:02:25.604 --> 0:02:28.284 what is in vogue, so to speak, right, like, what 0:02:28.404 --> 0:02:31.564 ideas are getting rewarded at what time for what reasons, 0:02:31.804 --> 0:02:34.204 Because I do think that there is kind of a 0:02:34.244 --> 0:02:39.004 backdrop for the choices of Nobel Prizes on any given year, 0:02:39.444 --> 0:02:42.604 because they could be awarded at you know, this year 0:02:42.684 --> 0:02:46.164 or next year or never, and when you make that choice, 0:02:46.164 --> 0:02:48.444 you are saying something about I think that this idea 0:02:48.484 --> 0:02:51.404 is very important right now, and the Peace Prize is 0:02:51.444 --> 0:02:54.924 the one that often gets the most attention. You know, 0:02:55.244 --> 0:02:58.484 since Donald Trump has been campaigning for it, it's certainly 0:02:58.484 --> 0:03:00.764 been getting a lot of attention. And I actually think 0:03:00.804 --> 0:03:04.844 that that is the for me, that's the most politicized 0:03:04.964 --> 0:03:08.484 prize and the one that I think sometimes goes to 0:03:08.524 --> 0:03:11.444 people who are depletely undeserving of it, and I'm like, 0:03:11.524 --> 0:03:13.324 what the fuck, Like, you guys are just trying to 0:03:13.364 --> 0:03:17.164 make a political statement. So the Nobel Peace Prize, I think, 0:03:17.604 --> 0:03:20.724 is one that I most often disagree with. But the 0:03:20.764 --> 0:03:23.364 other reason I love the Nobel Prizes is I really 0:03:23.404 --> 0:03:26.684 love the Nobel Lectures. So I actually, especially in literature, 0:03:27.084 --> 0:03:31.564 I love reading the lectures that people write and deliver 0:03:31.964 --> 0:03:33.844 because there are so many. I mean, I think it's 0:03:33.884 --> 0:03:37.684 some of the most interesting thinking and writing out there. 0:03:37.724 --> 0:03:41.964 And I often quote from people's Nobel Prize speeches lectures 0:03:42.644 --> 0:03:45.364 because I think that we have the chance to hear 0:03:45.364 --> 0:03:47.844 from some of the greatest minds, some of the greatest writers, 0:03:47.884 --> 0:03:50.724 some of the greatest thinkers in the world. So yes, 0:03:50.884 --> 0:03:53.404 I love the Nobel Prizes. Clearly, Nate, you are not 0:03:53.844 --> 0:03:56.604 a fan, though you are not someone who follows them 0:03:57.084 --> 0:03:57.764 follows along. 0:03:58.484 --> 0:04:03.044 You know, I'm more concerned with the American League MVP Award, 0:04:03.204 --> 0:04:07.524 among many other things. I guess I know somebody who's won. 0:04:08.124 --> 0:04:09.884 Somebody call a friend is one of Nobel. You get 0:04:09.884 --> 0:04:13.324 the call from like you know, some strange plus something 0:04:13.844 --> 0:04:16.844 country code, European number, in the middle of the morning, 0:04:17.404 --> 0:04:20.124 middle of the night. Right, very exciting. I would still 0:04:20.124 --> 0:04:22.764 be up. We're working on some fucking model. I'll be like, hey, Nate, 0:04:23.404 --> 0:04:25.364 you and Maria have finally won. I'd be like, I'm 0:04:25.364 --> 0:04:29.404 Tired's call Maria. I'm tired and I'm busy, busy that 0:04:29.484 --> 0:04:31.324 we can. You get money for the Nobel. 0:04:31.004 --> 0:04:32.884 Prize, right, you get money for the Nobel Prize, different 0:04:32.924 --> 0:04:36.724 amounts for different prizes. My favorite, by the way, speaking 0:04:36.844 --> 0:04:39.204 of middle of the night, and I don't know if 0:04:39.204 --> 0:04:41.844 you saw this night, I shared it because it to 0:04:41.924 --> 0:04:45.444 me it actually says something pretty fundamental about the type 0:04:45.484 --> 0:04:50.324 of thinking that is often required to win a Nobel Prize. 0:04:50.444 --> 0:04:54.804 So one of the people who won, Fred Ramsdell, he 0:04:55.044 --> 0:04:59.404 was unreachable when he won the Nobel Prize in medicine 0:04:59.844 --> 0:05:02.644 and they could not get a hold of him, like 0:05:02.804 --> 0:05:04.724 this is the first time actually in the history of 0:05:04.724 --> 0:05:08.604 the Nobel Prize that they literally could not contact a winner, 0:05:08.724 --> 0:05:11.604 not even not immediately, but like for twenty four hours. 0:05:11.644 --> 0:05:14.244 And he was hiking with his wife and off the grid, 0:05:15.084 --> 0:05:19.164 living his best life, as his company said after they've 0:05:19.284 --> 0:05:23.084 reached the company, and the company actually ended up putting 0:05:23.084 --> 0:05:25.804 out a statement on his behalf. So he was just 0:05:26.004 --> 0:05:29.524 completely off off the grid, hiking with his wife. This 0:05:29.604 --> 0:05:31.924 is something that they do, This is something that they 0:05:31.964 --> 0:05:34.804 love doing. They don't have reception, their phones are off. 0:05:35.164 --> 0:05:38.644 His is actually the entire trip in airplane mode, and 0:05:38.684 --> 0:05:42.524 he ended up finding out because his wife had hers 0:05:42.564 --> 0:05:45.284 not in airplane mode, and so at some point they 0:05:45.324 --> 0:05:49.444 came to a place where they had reception exactly exactly, 0:05:49.404 --> 0:05:51.924 and she started screaming and he thought she saw a 0:05:51.964 --> 0:05:55.044 grizzly bear. So he didn't have a heart attack. He 0:05:55.204 --> 0:05:58.124 was fine, but he thought that actually she was in 0:05:58.204 --> 0:06:00.724 danger and she's like, you won the Nobel Prize. 0:06:01.044 --> 0:06:02.564 It would be ironic if you did have a heart attack. 0:06:02.844 --> 0:06:04.804 That would be very ironic. Yav I always wonder about 0:06:04.804 --> 0:06:08.564 the mechanics of like I guess I was last year 0:06:08.604 --> 0:06:11.844 was nominated for a prize which is second only the 0:06:11.844 --> 0:06:14.364 Nobel Prize. I was nominated for a Global Poker. 0:06:14.924 --> 0:06:18.164 Or you know, some people would say it's actually more 0:06:18.204 --> 0:06:19.924 prestigious than the Nobel Prize. 0:06:19.924 --> 0:06:22.604 So you know, no, I mean it really is. 0:06:23.164 --> 0:06:25.684 You know, I have won a Global poker okay, and 0:06:25.884 --> 0:06:26.404 I didn't go. 0:06:26.524 --> 0:06:29.164 They have a ceremony. I hadn't made enough to Vegas 0:06:29.164 --> 0:06:31.044 for the year. Didn't go to the ceremony. I kind 0:06:31.044 --> 0:06:33.604 of forget that, Like, if I was gonna win, I 0:06:33.604 --> 0:06:37.804 didn't win, they would tip me off. Oh they don't. 0:06:37.804 --> 0:06:40.524 They do not tip you off. So these are awards 0:06:40.564 --> 0:06:44.684 that are given for various accomplishments in the poker world. 0:06:45.324 --> 0:06:47.964 Some of them are for things like best tournament performance, 0:06:48.044 --> 0:06:51.044 best breakout player, or something that I was nominated for 0:06:51.084 --> 0:06:54.044 once and did not win. Nate, I was Breakout Player 0:06:54.044 --> 0:06:57.164 of the Year and lost to This is very funny 0:06:57.844 --> 0:07:00.644 ali am Siavich, who no longer plays poker because it 0:07:00.684 --> 0:07:05.124 turned out that he was cheating. His breakout performance was 0:07:05.204 --> 0:07:08.524 not quite as breakouting in the in the right ways. 0:07:08.964 --> 0:07:11.724 So I think that that's uh, that actually is quite funny. 0:07:11.724 --> 0:07:13.764 But he won that year. But some of them are 0:07:13.804 --> 0:07:17.724 for poker journalism and those those types of awards you 0:07:17.804 --> 0:07:20.764 were nominated for On the Edge. I was nominated and 0:07:20.964 --> 0:07:26.444 won for the Biggest so my yeah, my, My Global 0:07:26.484 --> 0:07:31.204 Poker Award is for the biggest bluff and it's yeah, 0:07:31.244 --> 0:07:34.404 it's it's a fun ceremony, but no, you have no idea. 0:07:34.764 --> 0:07:37.284 No one is tipped off, and so it's very funny 0:07:37.324 --> 0:07:41.004 because there are people who have won and like when 0:07:41.084 --> 0:07:45.884 I won, I wasn't at the ceremony and didn't get 0:07:45.884 --> 0:07:49.284 my physical award for several years because I kept forgetting 0:07:49.324 --> 0:07:53.044 to pick it up and to ask for it. So yeah, 0:07:53.084 --> 0:07:56.284 they don't tip you off. And then Nobel prizes, So 0:07:56.404 --> 0:07:59.924 this is something quite interesting. I love you know that 0:08:00.004 --> 0:08:01.564 this guy was off the grid, and I think that 0:08:01.644 --> 0:08:05.644 it's really interesting to think about the importance of you know, 0:08:05.764 --> 0:08:08.644 disconnecting and actually letting your brain think and being out 0:08:08.644 --> 0:08:11.484 in nature. There's so many things about this that are 0:08:11.564 --> 0:08:14.124 actually there's a ton of research on why this is 0:08:14.164 --> 0:08:17.804 good for creativity, good thought, et cetera, et cetera. So 0:08:18.164 --> 0:08:22.564 yay Fred Ramsdell and yay being so like basically so 0:08:22.564 --> 0:08:25.044 secure in your profession that it's Nobel Week and you're like, 0:08:25.044 --> 0:08:26.924 fuck it, I'm going off the grid. I don't care. 0:08:28.204 --> 0:08:30.844 So it does say a lot about that. But Nate, 0:08:30.884 --> 0:08:33.724 there's a really interesting component here about the being tipped off. 0:08:33.924 --> 0:08:38.044 There were some controversies surrounding the Nobel Prizes in terms 0:08:38.124 --> 0:08:42.084 of polymarket and prediction market betting, where it seemed like 0:08:42.484 --> 0:08:46.244 there were tip offs before the announcements of certain prize winners, 0:08:46.324 --> 0:08:51.004 most notably the Nobel Peace Prize, which went to Maria 0:08:51.084 --> 0:08:55.924 Quorina Machado. And there was before the announcement, were you. 0:08:55.964 --> 0:08:57.884 Just replaced the native Spanish speaker there? 0:08:59.684 --> 0:09:02.884 You know, you know, you know, I studied. I studied 0:09:02.884 --> 0:09:05.364 Spanish for many years and lived in Spain. Nate, I 0:09:05.444 --> 0:09:06.724 studied abroad in Spain. 0:09:08.724 --> 0:09:11.324 So yeah, there was a big surge for her on 0:09:11.404 --> 0:09:14.844 poly market and probably other prediction markets, like right before 0:09:14.884 --> 0:09:17.964 she won. Right. The theory I've heard is that there 0:09:18.124 --> 0:09:21.764 was a lot of maybe some meta data release that 0:09:21.804 --> 0:09:24.604 you're preparing a bio, you're preparing like a big like 0:09:25.004 --> 0:09:27.884 you know, look, I used to know how to find 0:09:28.244 --> 0:09:32.244 poll releases before they were released by typing in certain 0:09:32.524 --> 0:09:35.284 URLs and things like that. Right, So, like if you 0:09:35.324 --> 0:09:38.084 have an incentive to make one hundreds of thousands of dollars 0:09:38.404 --> 0:09:40.724 by getting the sodaity right, and looking for any clues 0:09:40.764 --> 0:09:43.364 that you can. It doesn't necessarily have to be inside information. 0:09:43.684 --> 0:09:46.684 There's a whole longer combinate conversation about like inside information 0:09:46.724 --> 0:09:49.124 and prediction markets and non prediction markets too, that we 0:09:49.124 --> 0:09:52.044 should maybe have for some for other period of time. Right. 0:09:53.844 --> 0:09:55.364 I mean, the one thing where I think polllymarket did 0:09:55.364 --> 0:09:58.244 a bad job was for the Pope. Right, that was 0:09:58.284 --> 0:10:00.644 a case where shit didn't leak. 0:10:01.604 --> 0:10:04.524 That's because there were line Nate, there were no pockets 0:10:04.564 --> 0:10:05.844 of data or anything. 0:10:05.884 --> 0:10:09.724 It was totally It's the exception that proves day of 0:10:09.724 --> 0:10:12.364 the Internet in the Vatican that they probably have the Internet, right, 0:10:12.364 --> 0:10:19.004 they need it for grinder. Sorry, nay, come on, when. 0:10:18.804 --> 0:10:22.524 They're in conclave. They absolutely do not have access to 0:10:22.964 --> 0:10:27.684 the Internet. Nobody does. But they do have somebody who 0:10:27.764 --> 0:10:32.324 can access everything externally in case of medical emergency, et cetera, 0:10:32.364 --> 0:10:35.404 et cetera, as we talked about in our fascinating deep 0:10:35.444 --> 0:10:37.124 dive into the Conclave. 0:10:38.204 --> 0:10:42.964 Have you judged awards before? I have a park poker. 0:10:42.764 --> 0:10:47.844 Yeah I have, indeed, And this is just to say 0:10:47.844 --> 0:10:49.844 that the Nobel does try to keep it very close 0:10:50.084 --> 0:10:51.644 to the best. Have you judged awards before? 0:10:53.164 --> 0:10:56.084 Yeah? I did. A rotating two years to the higher 0:10:56.124 --> 0:10:59.524 journalists were people, you know, to judge the Pulitzers for 0:10:59.564 --> 0:11:02.124 like a two year stint and then Yester's wait another 0:11:02.164 --> 0:11:04.764 decade before they invite you back. But that was fascinating, 0:11:04.844 --> 0:11:06.724 right You spend is it like two or three days 0:11:06.844 --> 0:11:11.604 up at the Columbia campus, and like for the Pulitzers, 0:11:12.524 --> 0:11:17.604 you were given like a gigantic stack of applications in 0:11:17.684 --> 0:11:20.284 your category. Right, I love the spirit of it. It's 0:11:20.284 --> 0:11:22.564 a fun day. You get to meet I guess I 0:11:22.604 --> 0:11:24.644 call myself a journalist among other things. I get to 0:11:24.644 --> 0:11:29.204 meet like real journalists and interesting people, right, and with 0:11:29.244 --> 0:11:32.604 different perspectives. But you're like, you're going through this shit 0:11:33.364 --> 0:11:36.164 very fast. I'm not sure if it like applies the 0:11:36.204 --> 0:11:40.044 same way to the Nobel Prize. Right, you know, one 0:11:40.044 --> 0:11:42.884 thing I would know in general, if you're applied for 0:11:42.924 --> 0:11:46.804 an award that's like judged by some panel or committee, 0:11:46.924 --> 0:11:50.444 it's almost like student applications to some elite institution, right, 0:11:50.524 --> 0:11:53.964 Like half of it to two thirds to three quarters 0:11:54.964 --> 0:12:02.124 can be dismissed out of hand pretty much, right. You know, 0:12:02.324 --> 0:12:05.364 if I'm a journalist and I'm judging different stories, there 0:12:05.364 --> 0:12:08.484 are some stories that are prize bait, right, where like 0:12:09.444 --> 0:12:12.444 aimed in this way. It's feature style and blah blah, 0:12:12.444 --> 0:12:16.324 but it's important here's some person who overcame hardships, or 0:12:16.364 --> 0:12:18.724 here's a person who took on city hall, right, and 0:12:18.924 --> 0:12:23.804 like sometimes it's good, but it's sometimes not necessarily all 0:12:23.804 --> 0:12:28.164 that impactful, right, Yep, it's kind of a little bit 0:12:28.164 --> 0:12:30.964 paint by numbers, And like when I'm on the committee, 0:12:31.004 --> 0:12:32.924 I don't particularly care for that type of story, right, 0:12:32.964 --> 0:12:35.364 I kind of care more about like what maye be 0:12:35.564 --> 0:12:38.924 a big splash in the world this year, Right. I 0:12:38.924 --> 0:12:40.084 guess when I was doing it, was it during the 0:12:40.124 --> 0:12:43.404 first Trump term race before COVID. Right, there's a bunch 0:12:43.404 --> 0:12:45.244 of me too stuff. There was a bunch of Trump 0:12:45.924 --> 0:12:49.524 Russia stuff right by the way. You know, you have 0:12:49.644 --> 0:12:52.524 your group that makes a recommendation that can be overridden 0:12:52.564 --> 0:12:55.644 by like the board of the poetry Prizes, which you 0:12:55.684 --> 0:12:59.524 know might sound like it's having a heavy hand on 0:12:59.564 --> 0:13:02.964 the scale, but like, but they're inherently political kind of things. 0:13:02.964 --> 0:13:05.404 I think the poltries do better than some jobs, but 0:13:05.564 --> 0:13:09.524 like it it. You know, it probably helps to to 0:13:09.684 --> 0:13:11.444 know people I suppose. 0:13:11.364 --> 0:13:15.124 Yeah, no, absolutely, And that's why I said that, you know, 0:13:15.204 --> 0:13:16.924 some of the I think some of the prizes are 0:13:17.004 --> 0:13:21.204 much more political than others. And even it's interesting because 0:13:22.284 --> 0:13:26.604 in the Nobel Peace Prizes, that's very you know, that's 0:13:26.684 --> 0:13:29.604 just egregiously the case. And by the way, that's not 0:13:29.764 --> 0:13:33.324 a knock on this year's winner, who I think is 0:13:33.364 --> 0:13:37.604 incredibly deserving. I'm not trying to subtly suggest that this 0:13:37.724 --> 0:13:41.164 year's winners should not have a should not have one. 0:13:41.324 --> 0:13:43.924 I do want to very strongly suggest that there are 0:13:43.964 --> 0:13:46.604 past winners who should not have one, but she is 0:13:46.644 --> 0:13:51.884 not among them. But even you know, even Peace Prize aside, 0:13:52.804 --> 0:13:56.764 I do think that the Nobels have become more than 0:13:57.044 --> 0:14:00.924 just oh, we think that this is the person most 0:14:01.004 --> 0:14:05.004 deserving of a prize for their literary output, for instance. 0:14:05.284 --> 0:14:08.484 And I say become, but this has always been the 0:14:08.524 --> 0:14:13.284 case to some extent, and where there are political considerations 0:14:13.324 --> 0:14:16.484 of all sorts. So I think with the Nobel Prizes 0:14:16.524 --> 0:14:20.604 in literature, just you know, in recent years, the committee 0:14:20.924 --> 0:14:23.164 was accused of having you know, too many white men, 0:14:23.204 --> 0:14:26.244 too many Europeans, Americans, et cetera. And they're like, okay, 0:14:26.644 --> 0:14:28.724 so how much of that is because we just have 0:14:29.564 --> 0:14:33.604 a committee who's reading habits are inherently biased because of 0:14:33.644 --> 0:14:36.044 who they are, right, Like, they're not trying to be biased, 0:14:36.044 --> 0:14:38.844 but they just are not aware of a lot of 0:14:39.284 --> 0:14:45.084 other literature. That's you know, that's painting them in a 0:14:45.124 --> 0:14:49.524 non aeroditelite saying, you know, you haven't made those sorts 0:14:49.564 --> 0:14:53.324 of comparisons. But sometimes then it's kind of like, you know, 0:14:54.804 --> 0:14:58.124 it's a really it gets into really murky ground where 0:14:58.284 --> 0:14:59.844 we're like, well, are we trying to have like a 0:14:59.924 --> 0:15:03.804 quotea sistem right for Nobel prizes in literature where we 0:15:03.884 --> 0:15:07.004 don't have you know, enough women, We don't have enough 0:15:07.604 --> 0:15:10.444 people from you know, non u et cetera, et cetera, 0:15:10.484 --> 0:15:14.404 et cetera. And I think that part of it is 0:15:14.604 --> 0:15:18.444 just a lack of knowledge, a lack of exposure, a 0:15:18.564 --> 0:15:22.284 lack of translation. Right, that's that's another important thing, Like 0:15:22.604 --> 0:15:24.644 you need who sits on the committee? We don't know, 0:15:24.764 --> 0:15:27.484 by the way, these are things that are very closely 0:15:28.204 --> 0:15:31.124 guarded secrets. So like I do not you can't google 0:15:31.204 --> 0:15:34.724 like who is the committee for the Nobel Prize in X? 0:15:35.204 --> 0:15:38.004 Like have you sold a French edition of The Biggest FLA? 0:15:38.604 --> 0:15:39.044 I have not. 0:15:39.324 --> 0:15:42.964 Actually I have not sold French. I have not so 0:15:43.044 --> 0:15:46.004 the French. I have not sold a single one of 0:15:46.004 --> 0:15:50.244 my books in France ever. And my books this isn't 0:15:50.244 --> 0:15:53.084 a brag, but like my books have been translated into 0:15:53.244 --> 0:15:56.484 over twenty languages, right, like we sold rights all over 0:15:56.524 --> 0:15:59.604 the world. France has never bought one of my books. 0:15:59.844 --> 0:16:02.004 The first one. I was like, well, it's about Charlock Holmes. 0:16:02.004 --> 0:16:05.804 It's very English, right, so maybe there's like an inherently 0:16:06.204 --> 0:16:09.364 anti English bias, but yeah, no, the French do not 0:16:09.604 --> 0:16:11.644 like buying American books, and. 0:16:12.164 --> 0:16:16.164 I like France. I'm by the way, isn't the World 0:16:16.164 --> 0:16:18.764 Bookage or the whatever European booked are back in Paris 0:16:18.844 --> 0:16:19.324 next year. 0:16:19.684 --> 0:16:21.844 Poker Stars is coming back to Paris in February with 0:16:21.924 --> 0:16:25.724 the I will not leave until both of us have 0:16:25.804 --> 0:16:27.004 sold our postil. 0:16:26.604 --> 0:16:30.044 Both of us have books translated into French. I like wine, 0:16:30.204 --> 0:16:33.484 I like coffee, I like lounging around, I like steak freez. 0:16:34.044 --> 0:16:36.284 And there's so many amazing things about France. But yes, 0:16:36.324 --> 0:16:39.604 they do not love our books, Nate, But you know 0:16:39.644 --> 0:16:42.644 this is an issue, right, Translation is a problem. Like 0:16:42.764 --> 0:16:46.204 the Winner this year, not all of his books have 0:16:46.244 --> 0:16:51.484 been translated into English, and some have just been translated, 0:16:51.484 --> 0:16:55.204 by the way, that's Lasno krasno Hork. He is Hungarian, 0:16:55.524 --> 0:16:59.124 and I loved that. His last book, which I have 0:16:59.284 --> 0:17:02.484 not read, is four hundred pages and contains one period 0:17:03.564 --> 0:17:07.924 in the entire book. So so that should be an interesting, 0:17:08.044 --> 0:17:08.804 interesting read. 0:17:09.604 --> 0:17:12.764 As a purveyor of run on sentences myself, I'm officially 0:17:12.764 --> 0:17:13.124 a fan. 0:17:13.204 --> 0:17:15.764 Yeah, there you go, there you go. So you know, 0:17:16.044 --> 0:17:18.484 but but you know, you get these you get these 0:17:18.724 --> 0:17:22.884 winners who already are who already won the prize, right, 0:17:23.204 --> 0:17:26.644 someone like this year's winner, And not all of his 0:17:26.644 --> 0:17:29.644 books have been translated into English, and so I assume, 0:17:30.004 --> 0:17:33.484 you know, other languages also suffer from that. Now, imagine 0:17:33.484 --> 0:17:36.404 you're someone who hasn't like and he's someone who already 0:17:36.524 --> 0:17:39.364 rose to that level of prominence. So there are issues 0:17:39.404 --> 0:17:42.164 that end up, you know, making the prize a little 0:17:42.164 --> 0:17:46.164 bit more politicized than one would think. And I said that, 0:17:46.564 --> 0:17:50.244 you know, in recent memory, people have been pressuring the 0:17:50.244 --> 0:17:55.684 committee saying, you know, you're you're representing too many similar voices. 0:17:56.164 --> 0:17:59.404 And yet this has been an issue for a very 0:17:59.444 --> 0:18:02.764 long time. So there have been two times that I 0:18:02.804 --> 0:18:06.044 know of in history. Because deliberations are eventually made public. 0:18:06.564 --> 0:18:09.804 I don't remember how many years after it's decades, but 0:18:10.804 --> 0:18:14.684 you eventually, you eventually do know who was nominated and 0:18:14.764 --> 0:18:17.604 like you do understand, you know why some people were 0:18:17.604 --> 0:18:21.364 shot down, so I can. There are two instances in 0:18:21.484 --> 0:18:24.444 history where I'm like, are you guys, are you kidding me? 0:18:24.844 --> 0:18:27.964 And it shows different sources of biases. One, which I 0:18:27.964 --> 0:18:32.724 think is the single most egregious one is w. H. 0:18:32.724 --> 0:18:35.804 Auden did not get the Nobel Prize in literature. He 0:18:35.964 --> 0:18:39.804 was gay. He was very openly gay. He was, you know, 0:18:40.044 --> 0:18:44.804 very vocal about it. And this was not it's not 0:18:44.924 --> 0:18:47.684 like it's there's a line that says we are not 0:18:47.804 --> 0:18:50.284 giving him the prize because he's gay, But you can 0:18:50.364 --> 0:18:54.084 read between the lines, and he did not get it 0:18:54.124 --> 0:18:57.364 because of his sexual orientation. He's one of the greatest 0:18:57.404 --> 0:19:00.044 poets writers of the twentieth century and the fact that 0:19:00.084 --> 0:19:02.244 he wasn't given the Nobel Prize because of a sexual 0:19:02.484 --> 0:19:08.004 orientation is horrible. Now, second one shows a very different 0:19:08.044 --> 0:19:11.684 sort of bias. White streat Mail. This time Tolkien j R. 0:19:11.844 --> 0:19:15.364 Tolkien did not win the Nobel Prize because people were 0:19:15.364 --> 0:19:18.884 biased against the types of books that he wrote and said, 0:19:18.924 --> 0:19:22.204 you know, oh you know, fantasy is not real literature. 0:19:22.884 --> 0:19:26.004 It's not going to stand the test of time. But 0:19:26.124 --> 0:19:29.044 the year that Tolkien was up, the person who won 0:19:29.124 --> 0:19:31.364 that year, like I have no idea who the fuck 0:19:31.404 --> 0:19:35.164 that is, and like no one remembers that name, and 0:19:35.404 --> 0:19:40.324 everyone knows Tolkien's name, and like it's one of those 0:19:40.364 --> 0:19:43.084 things where I'm like, wow, you guys are just there 0:19:43.084 --> 0:19:46.484 have been closed minded biases around this prize for a 0:19:46.644 --> 0:19:50.404 very very long time, basically since its inception. So instead 0:19:50.404 --> 0:19:53.164 of saying, this is the prize for the you know, 0:19:53.284 --> 0:19:56.684 single most deserving author, just like with all everything, I 0:19:56.684 --> 0:20:00.284 think we need to caveat it. Right that has risen 0:20:00.324 --> 0:20:04.204 to a certain level, whose works have been translated, and 0:20:04.244 --> 0:20:06.724 we don't take issue with the type of writing you do, 0:20:07.244 --> 0:20:10.364 the type of person you are, et ce cetera, et cetera. 0:20:11.404 --> 0:20:14.444 So I think that that's something that's really important to 0:20:14.484 --> 0:20:18.484 keep in mind. And you would think that the other prizes, 0:20:18.684 --> 0:20:23.284 like you know, medicine, physics, economics, that they're a little 0:20:23.284 --> 0:20:28.324 bit potentially, especially with something like physics more straightforward. And 0:20:28.444 --> 0:20:32.044 I actually, just to be perfectly honest, I don't know literature. 0:20:32.084 --> 0:20:33.924 I've done a lot of deep dives into the history 0:20:33.964 --> 0:20:36.284 because it's something you know, it's my field. It's something 0:20:36.284 --> 0:20:39.924 that I feel very passionately about. And I wouldn't be 0:20:39.964 --> 0:20:42.364 surprised if I went down the line of you know, 0:20:42.404 --> 0:20:46.364 physics and realized how much controversy there was there. I 0:20:46.364 --> 0:20:48.884 do know that there is controversy and who exactly gets 0:20:49.004 --> 0:20:52.804 prizes for discoveries right? Because sometimes if you know that 0:20:52.844 --> 0:20:55.484 a certain discovery is going to win the prize in physics, medicine, 0:20:55.524 --> 0:20:58.044 et cetera, how do you divide it? Right? How do 0:20:58.084 --> 0:21:00.804 you actually decide who's going to get it? Who's going 0:21:00.844 --> 0:21:03.284 to get credit for this? Does one person get it? 0:21:03.324 --> 0:21:05.284 To two people get it? Do three people get it? 0:21:05.284 --> 0:21:08.244 Because sometimes it is split. This year's prize in economics 0:21:08.244 --> 0:21:10.804 will split three ways. One person got half the prize 0:21:10.804 --> 0:21:12.804 and then two people had to split the other half. 0:21:13.164 --> 0:21:15.924 So you have to make determinations like that all the time. 0:21:16.524 --> 0:21:18.644 You have to be alive too, You have to be alive. 0:21:18.684 --> 0:21:20.804 That's actually interesting, that is huge. 0:21:20.804 --> 0:21:24.044 That's actually really important. So like when Daniel Konnoman won 0:21:24.644 --> 0:21:27.764 the Nobel Prize for his work with Tabarski, Tierski couldn't 0:21:27.764 --> 0:21:32.084 win it, right, even though he did, he did half 0:21:32.124 --> 0:21:34.764 the research. Right, he was half the team, but Conoman 0:21:34.884 --> 0:21:36.004 was alive. Twarski was not. 0:21:37.044 --> 0:21:41.764 My grandparents who are passed away, you know, they would says, 0:21:41.804 --> 0:21:44.844 how do you guys stay married for for fifty years 0:21:44.884 --> 0:21:46.044 or became sixty years eventually? 0:21:46.124 --> 0:21:46.244 Right? 0:21:46.324 --> 0:21:49.284 My grandfather was always like, well, there are three key components, right, 0:21:50.124 --> 0:21:55.804 get married young number one, stay together and don't die. 0:21:56.004 --> 0:22:00.484 The don't die a part is really it's really quite 0:22:00.484 --> 0:22:08.044 important for winning a Nobel On for other things. 0:22:08.884 --> 0:22:10.284 And we'll be back right after this. 0:22:27.964 --> 0:22:29.324 You want to talk a little b about the Economics 0:22:29.324 --> 0:22:30.884 Prize of one thing that I kind of you know, 0:22:31.124 --> 0:22:33.004 I don't know the other two I do know Joel, 0:22:33.404 --> 0:22:35.804 I always thought it was mochr m ok y r. 0:22:35.964 --> 0:22:39.084 I don't actually, yeah, I don't know how it's more okay. 0:22:39.284 --> 0:22:43.444 He's Dutch, Israeli, American. You know a lot of different 0:22:43.524 --> 0:22:48.804 ingredients here. But he does work on economic history in particular. 0:22:49.284 --> 0:22:53.164 I'm going to do very basic stuff, right. If you know, 0:22:53.164 --> 0:22:57.644 if you study economic history, then very stylized competition in 0:22:57.684 --> 0:23:01.204 the facts. Right, you learn that progress is unusual, Right, 0:23:01.324 --> 0:23:06.244 that like humanity has spent most of its existence barely 0:23:06.284 --> 0:23:11.364 eking out a living where innovations are slow to come by, 0:23:11.484 --> 0:23:14.644 there's wars, you might have empires, the empires die out 0:23:14.724 --> 0:23:18.844 after some period of time. And then in the Industrial 0:23:18.884 --> 0:23:23.964