1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:30,564 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:30,604 --> 00:00:34,724 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm Nate Silver. Today 3 00:00:34,764 --> 00:00:37,164 Speaker 1: on the show, Nate, we'll be talking about a topic 4 00:00:37,204 --> 00:00:41,404 Speaker 1: that I think is really exciting. Every single year, I'm 5 00:00:41,484 --> 00:00:46,604 Speaker 1: always eagerly awaiting the announcements of the Nobel Prizes, not 6 00:00:46,764 --> 00:00:50,324 Speaker 1: because I'm in any danger of winning one, but because 7 00:00:50,364 --> 00:00:53,124 Speaker 1: I think you can learn a lot from the people 8 00:00:53,164 --> 00:00:56,644 Speaker 1: who win the awards. So all of the Nobel Prizes 9 00:00:56,684 --> 00:01:00,724 Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five have been given out, and I'm excited, 10 00:01:00,804 --> 00:01:04,284 Speaker 1: probably more excited than you are in Nate to dive 11 00:01:04,524 --> 00:01:08,484 Speaker 1: into the recipients and some of the broader implications and 12 00:01:08,524 --> 00:01:10,844 Speaker 1: broader history of the Nobel Prize. 13 00:01:11,204 --> 00:01:14,764 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, look, I think you owe me not 14 00:01:14,764 --> 00:01:16,324 Speaker 2: to be too gender astorre. I think you owe me 15 00:01:16,364 --> 00:01:21,564 Speaker 2: as sports focused episodes and Maria. But yes, I do 16 00:01:21,644 --> 00:01:24,204 Speaker 2: have some thoughts, particularly on the economics Nobel Prize, where 17 00:01:24,204 --> 00:01:26,324 Speaker 2: I'm an admirer of one of the recipients. 18 00:01:32,124 --> 00:01:36,484 Speaker 1: So Nobel Prizes are something that I actually always follow avidly. 19 00:01:36,764 --> 00:01:39,324 Speaker 2: That makes one of us I think that. 20 00:01:39,244 --> 00:01:43,644 Speaker 1: They're fascinating, and I think so for several reasons. First, 21 00:01:43,764 --> 00:01:49,884 Speaker 1: like when we get the Nobel Prizes in you know, medicine, chemistry, physics, 22 00:01:49,924 --> 00:01:53,484 Speaker 1: all of that stuff, I get to learn something about 23 00:01:53,484 --> 00:01:55,724 Speaker 1: the world because it's usually for shit that I had 24 00:01:55,764 --> 00:01:57,964 Speaker 1: no idea existed, and I'm like, oh my god, this 25 00:01:58,084 --> 00:02:00,924 Speaker 1: is so cool. Right, You've been doing all this amazing research, 26 00:02:00,964 --> 00:02:03,364 Speaker 1: and that's really interesting, and it's a way, you know, 27 00:02:03,444 --> 00:02:05,684 Speaker 1: of educating myself about things that I don't know about. 28 00:02:05,964 --> 00:02:10,044 Speaker 1: Nobel Prize in literature I'm always really excited about because 29 00:02:10,564 --> 00:02:13,004 Speaker 1: if it's someone who I know and love, I'm like, yes, 30 00:02:13,044 --> 00:02:15,284 Speaker 1: you know, finally they get recognition. And if it's someone 31 00:02:15,284 --> 00:02:18,444 Speaker 1: whose work I've never read, I'm like, wow, okay, you 32 00:02:18,444 --> 00:02:21,964 Speaker 1: know this is cool. Something else for me. Economics, I 33 00:02:21,964 --> 00:02:25,524 Speaker 1: also think is always just interesting to figure out, you know, 34 00:02:25,604 --> 00:02:28,284 Speaker 1: what is in vogue, so to speak, right, like, what 35 00:02:28,404 --> 00:02:31,564 Speaker 1: ideas are getting rewarded at what time for what reasons, 36 00:02:31,804 --> 00:02:34,204 Speaker 1: Because I do think that there is kind of a 37 00:02:34,244 --> 00:02:39,004 Speaker 1: backdrop for the choices of Nobel Prizes on any given year, 38 00:02:39,444 --> 00:02:42,604 Speaker 1: because they could be awarded at you know, this year 39 00:02:42,684 --> 00:02:46,164 Speaker 1: or next year or never, and when you make that choice, 40 00:02:46,164 --> 00:02:48,444 Speaker 1: you are saying something about I think that this idea 41 00:02:48,484 --> 00:02:51,404 Speaker 1: is very important right now, and the Peace Prize is 42 00:02:51,444 --> 00:02:54,924 Speaker 1: the one that often gets the most attention. You know, 43 00:02:55,244 --> 00:02:58,484 Speaker 1: since Donald Trump has been campaigning for it, it's certainly 44 00:02:58,484 --> 00:03:00,764 Speaker 1: been getting a lot of attention. And I actually think 45 00:03:00,804 --> 00:03:04,844 Speaker 1: that that is the for me, that's the most politicized 46 00:03:04,964 --> 00:03:08,484 Speaker 1: prize and the one that I think sometimes goes to 47 00:03:08,524 --> 00:03:11,444 Speaker 1: people who are depletely undeserving of it, and I'm like, 48 00:03:11,524 --> 00:03:13,324 Speaker 1: what the fuck, Like, you guys are just trying to 49 00:03:13,364 --> 00:03:17,164 Speaker 1: make a political statement. So the Nobel Peace Prize, I think, 50 00:03:17,604 --> 00:03:20,724 Speaker 1: is one that I most often disagree with. But the 51 00:03:20,764 --> 00:03:23,364 Speaker 1: other reason I love the Nobel Prizes is I really 52 00:03:23,404 --> 00:03:26,684 Speaker 1: love the Nobel Lectures. So I actually, especially in literature, 53 00:03:27,084 --> 00:03:31,564 Speaker 1: I love reading the lectures that people write and deliver 54 00:03:31,964 --> 00:03:33,844 Speaker 1: because there are so many. I mean, I think it's 55 00:03:33,884 --> 00:03:37,684 Speaker 1: some of the most interesting thinking and writing out there. 56 00:03:37,724 --> 00:03:41,964 Speaker 1: And I often quote from people's Nobel Prize speeches lectures 57 00:03:42,644 --> 00:03:45,364 Speaker 1: because I think that we have the chance to hear 58 00:03:45,364 --> 00:03:47,844 Speaker 1: from some of the greatest minds, some of the greatest writers, 59 00:03:47,884 --> 00:03:50,724 Speaker 1: some of the greatest thinkers in the world. So yes, 60 00:03:50,884 --> 00:03:53,404 Speaker 1: I love the Nobel Prizes. Clearly, Nate, you are not 61 00:03:53,844 --> 00:03:56,604 Speaker 1: a fan, though you are not someone who follows them 62 00:03:57,084 --> 00:03:57,764 Speaker 1: follows along. 63 00:03:58,484 --> 00:04:03,044 Speaker 2: You know, I'm more concerned with the American League MVP Award, 64 00:04:03,204 --> 00:04:07,524 Speaker 2: among many other things. I guess I know somebody who's won. 65 00:04:08,124 --> 00:04:09,884 Speaker 2: Somebody call a friend is one of Nobel. You get 66 00:04:09,884 --> 00:04:13,324 Speaker 2: the call from like you know, some strange plus something 67 00:04:13,844 --> 00:04:16,844 Speaker 2: country code, European number, in the middle of the morning, 68 00:04:17,404 --> 00:04:20,124 Speaker 2: middle of the night. Right, very exciting. I would still 69 00:04:20,124 --> 00:04:22,764 Speaker 2: be up. We're working on some fucking model. I'll be like, hey, Nate, 70 00:04:23,404 --> 00:04:25,364 Speaker 2: you and Maria have finally won. I'd be like, I'm 71 00:04:25,364 --> 00:04:29,404 Speaker 2: Tired's call Maria. I'm tired and I'm busy, busy that 72 00:04:29,484 --> 00:04:31,324 Speaker 2: we can. You get money for the Nobel. 73 00:04:31,004 --> 00:04:32,884 Speaker 1: Prize, right, you get money for the Nobel Prize, different 74 00:04:32,924 --> 00:04:36,724 Speaker 1: amounts for different prizes. My favorite, by the way, speaking 75 00:04:36,844 --> 00:04:39,204 Speaker 1: of middle of the night, and I don't know if 76 00:04:39,204 --> 00:04:41,844 Speaker 1: you saw this night, I shared it because it to 77 00:04:41,924 --> 00:04:45,444 Speaker 1: me it actually says something pretty fundamental about the type 78 00:04:45,484 --> 00:04:50,324 Speaker 1: of thinking that is often required to win a Nobel Prize. 79 00:04:50,444 --> 00:04:54,804 Speaker 1: So one of the people who won, Fred Ramsdell, he 80 00:04:55,044 --> 00:04:59,404 Speaker 1: was unreachable when he won the Nobel Prize in medicine 81 00:04:59,844 --> 00:05:02,644 Speaker 1: and they could not get a hold of him, like 82 00:05:02,804 --> 00:05:04,724 Speaker 1: this is the first time actually in the history of 83 00:05:04,724 --> 00:05:08,604 Speaker 1: the Nobel Prize that they literally could not contact a winner, 84 00:05:08,724 --> 00:05:11,604 Speaker 1: not even not immediately, but like for twenty four hours. 85 00:05:11,644 --> 00:05:14,244 Speaker 1: And he was hiking with his wife and off the grid, 86 00:05:15,084 --> 00:05:19,164 Speaker 1: living his best life, as his company said after they've 87 00:05:19,284 --> 00:05:23,084 Speaker 1: reached the company, and the company actually ended up putting 88 00:05:23,084 --> 00:05:25,804 Speaker 1: out a statement on his behalf. So he was just 89 00:05:26,004 --> 00:05:29,524 Speaker 1: completely off off the grid, hiking with his wife. This 90 00:05:29,604 --> 00:05:31,924 Speaker 1: is something that they do, This is something that they 91 00:05:31,964 --> 00:05:34,804 Speaker 1: love doing. They don't have reception, their phones are off. 92 00:05:35,164 --> 00:05:38,644 Speaker 1: His is actually the entire trip in airplane mode, and 93 00:05:38,684 --> 00:05:42,524 Speaker 1: he ended up finding out because his wife had hers 94 00:05:42,564 --> 00:05:45,284 Speaker 1: not in airplane mode, and so at some point they 95 00:05:45,324 --> 00:05:49,444 Speaker 1: came to a place where they had reception exactly exactly, 96 00:05:49,404 --> 00:05:51,924 Speaker 1: and she started screaming and he thought she saw a 97 00:05:51,964 --> 00:05:55,044 Speaker 1: grizzly bear. So he didn't have a heart attack. He 98 00:05:55,204 --> 00:05:58,124 Speaker 1: was fine, but he thought that actually she was in 99 00:05:58,204 --> 00:06:00,724 Speaker 1: danger and she's like, you won the Nobel Prize. 100 00:06:01,044 --> 00:06:02,564 Speaker 2: It would be ironic if you did have a heart attack. 101 00:06:02,844 --> 00:06:04,804 Speaker 2: That would be very ironic. Yav I always wonder about 102 00:06:04,804 --> 00:06:08,564 Speaker 2: the mechanics of like I guess I was last year 103 00:06:08,604 --> 00:06:11,844 Speaker 2: was nominated for a prize which is second only the 104 00:06:11,844 --> 00:06:14,364 Speaker 2: Nobel Prize. I was nominated for a Global Poker. 105 00:06:14,924 --> 00:06:18,164 Speaker 1: Or you know, some people would say it's actually more 106 00:06:18,204 --> 00:06:19,924 Speaker 1: prestigious than the Nobel Prize. 107 00:06:19,924 --> 00:06:22,604 Speaker 2: So you know, no, I mean it really is. 108 00:06:23,164 --> 00:06:25,684 Speaker 1: You know, I have won a Global poker okay, and 109 00:06:25,884 --> 00:06:26,404 Speaker 1: I didn't go. 110 00:06:26,524 --> 00:06:29,164 Speaker 2: They have a ceremony. I hadn't made enough to Vegas 111 00:06:29,164 --> 00:06:31,044 Speaker 2: for the year. Didn't go to the ceremony. I kind 112 00:06:31,044 --> 00:06:33,604 Speaker 2: of forget that, Like, if I was gonna win, I 113 00:06:33,604 --> 00:06:37,804 Speaker 2: didn't win, they would tip me off. Oh they don't. 114 00:06:37,804 --> 00:06:40,524 Speaker 1: They do not tip you off. So these are awards 115 00:06:40,564 --> 00:06:44,684 Speaker 1: that are given for various accomplishments in the poker world. 116 00:06:45,324 --> 00:06:47,964 Speaker 1: Some of them are for things like best tournament performance, 117 00:06:48,044 --> 00:06:51,044 Speaker 1: best breakout player, or something that I was nominated for 118 00:06:51,084 --> 00:06:54,044 Speaker 1: once and did not win. Nate, I was Breakout Player 119 00:06:54,044 --> 00:06:57,164 Speaker 1: of the Year and lost to This is very funny 120 00:06:57,844 --> 00:07:00,644 Speaker 1: ali am Siavich, who no longer plays poker because it 121 00:07:00,684 --> 00:07:05,124 Speaker 1: turned out that he was cheating. His breakout performance was 122 00:07:05,204 --> 00:07:08,524 Speaker 1: not quite as breakouting in the in the right ways. 123 00:07:08,964 --> 00:07:11,724 Speaker 1: So I think that that's uh, that actually is quite funny. 124 00:07:11,724 --> 00:07:13,764 Speaker 1: But he won that year. But some of them are 125 00:07:13,804 --> 00:07:17,724 Speaker 1: for poker journalism and those those types of awards you 126 00:07:17,804 --> 00:07:20,764 Speaker 1: were nominated for On the Edge. I was nominated and 127 00:07:20,964 --> 00:07:26,444 Speaker 1: won for the Biggest so my yeah, my, My Global 128 00:07:26,484 --> 00:07:31,204 Speaker 1: Poker Award is for the biggest bluff and it's yeah, 129 00:07:31,244 --> 00:07:34,404 Speaker 1: it's it's a fun ceremony, but no, you have no idea. 130 00:07:34,764 --> 00:07:37,284 Speaker 1: No one is tipped off, and so it's very funny 131 00:07:37,324 --> 00:07:41,004 Speaker 1: because there are people who have won and like when 132 00:07:41,084 --> 00:07:45,884 Speaker 1: I won, I wasn't at the ceremony and didn't get 133 00:07:45,884 --> 00:07:49,284 Speaker 1: my physical award for several years because I kept forgetting 134 00:07:49,324 --> 00:07:53,044 Speaker 1: to pick it up and to ask for it. So yeah, 135 00:07:53,084 --> 00:07:56,284 Speaker 1: they don't tip you off. And then Nobel prizes, So 136 00:07:56,404 --> 00:07:59,924 Speaker 1: this is something quite interesting. I love you know that 137 00:08:00,004 --> 00:08:01,564 Speaker 1: this guy was off the grid, and I think that 138 00:08:01,644 --> 00:08:05,644 Speaker 1: it's really interesting to think about the importance of you know, 139 00:08:05,764 --> 00:08:08,644 Speaker 1: disconnecting and actually letting your brain think and being out 140 00:08:08,644 --> 00:08:11,484 Speaker 1: in nature. There's so many things about this that are 141 00:08:11,564 --> 00:08:14,124 Speaker 1: actually there's a ton of research on why this is 142 00:08:14,164 --> 00:08:17,804 Speaker 1: good for creativity, good thought, et cetera, et cetera. So 143 00:08:18,164 --> 00:08:22,564 Speaker 1: yay Fred Ramsdell and yay being so like basically so 144 00:08:22,564 --> 00:08:25,044 Speaker 1: secure in your profession that it's Nobel Week and you're like, 145 00:08:25,044 --> 00:08:26,924 Speaker 1: fuck it, I'm going off the grid. I don't care. 146 00:08:28,204 --> 00:08:30,844 Speaker 1: So it does say a lot about that. But Nate, 147 00:08:30,884 --> 00:08:33,724 Speaker 1: there's a really interesting component here about the being tipped off. 148 00:08:33,924 --> 00:08:38,044 Speaker 1: There were some controversies surrounding the Nobel Prizes in terms 149 00:08:38,124 --> 00:08:42,084 Speaker 1: of polymarket and prediction market betting, where it seemed like 150 00:08:42,484 --> 00:08:46,244 Speaker 1: there were tip offs before the announcements of certain prize winners, 151 00:08:46,324 --> 00:08:51,004 Speaker 1: most notably the Nobel Peace Prize, which went to Maria 152 00:08:51,084 --> 00:08:55,924 Speaker 1: Quorina Machado. And there was before the announcement, were you. 153 00:08:55,964 --> 00:08:57,884 Speaker 2: Just replaced the native Spanish speaker there? 154 00:08:59,684 --> 00:09:02,884 Speaker 1: You know, you know, you know, I studied. I studied 155 00:09:02,884 --> 00:09:05,364 Speaker 1: Spanish for many years and lived in Spain. Nate, I 156 00:09:05,444 --> 00:09:06,724 Speaker 1: studied abroad in Spain. 157 00:09:08,724 --> 00:09:11,324 Speaker 2: So yeah, there was a big surge for her on 158 00:09:11,404 --> 00:09:14,844 Speaker 2: poly market and probably other prediction markets, like right before 159 00:09:14,884 --> 00:09:17,964 Speaker 2: she won. Right. The theory I've heard is that there 160 00:09:18,124 --> 00:09:21,764 Speaker 2: was a lot of maybe some meta data release that 161 00:09:21,804 --> 00:09:24,604 Speaker 2: you're preparing a bio, you're preparing like a big like 162 00:09:25,004 --> 00:09:27,884 Speaker 2: you know, look, I used to know how to find 163 00:09:28,244 --> 00:09:32,244 Speaker 2: poll releases before they were released by typing in certain 164 00:09:32,524 --> 00:09:35,284 Speaker 2: URLs and things like that. Right, So, like if you 165 00:09:35,324 --> 00:09:38,084 Speaker 2: have an incentive to make one hundreds of thousands of dollars 166 00:09:38,404 --> 00:09:40,724 Speaker 2: by getting the sodaity right, and looking for any clues 167 00:09:40,764 --> 00:09:43,364 Speaker 2: that you can. It doesn't necessarily have to be inside information. 168 00:09:43,684 --> 00:09:46,684 Speaker 2: There's a whole longer combinate conversation about like inside information 169 00:09:46,724 --> 00:09:49,124 Speaker 2: and prediction markets and non prediction markets too, that we 170 00:09:49,124 --> 00:09:52,044 Speaker 2: should maybe have for some for other period of time. Right. 171 00:09:53,844 --> 00:09:55,364 Speaker 2: I mean, the one thing where I think polllymarket did 172 00:09:55,364 --> 00:09:58,244 Speaker 2: a bad job was for the Pope. Right, that was 173 00:09:58,284 --> 00:10:00,644 Speaker 2: a case where shit didn't leak. 174 00:10:01,604 --> 00:10:04,524 Speaker 1: That's because there were line Nate, there were no pockets 175 00:10:04,564 --> 00:10:05,844 Speaker 1: of data or anything. 176 00:10:05,884 --> 00:10:09,724 Speaker 2: It was totally It's the exception that proves day of 177 00:10:09,724 --> 00:10:12,364 Speaker 2: the Internet in the Vatican that they probably have the Internet, right, 178 00:10:12,364 --> 00:10:19,004 Speaker 2: they need it for grinder. Sorry, nay, come on, when. 179 00:10:18,804 --> 00:10:22,524 Speaker 1: They're in conclave. They absolutely do not have access to 180 00:10:22,964 --> 00:10:27,684 Speaker 1: the Internet. Nobody does. But they do have somebody who 181 00:10:27,764 --> 00:10:32,324 Speaker 1: can access everything externally in case of medical emergency, et cetera, 182 00:10:32,364 --> 00:10:35,404 Speaker 1: et cetera, as we talked about in our fascinating deep 183 00:10:35,444 --> 00:10:37,124 Speaker 1: dive into the Conclave. 184 00:10:38,204 --> 00:10:42,964 Speaker 2: Have you judged awards before? I have a park poker. 185 00:10:42,764 --> 00:10:47,844 Speaker 1: Yeah I have, indeed, And this is just to say 186 00:10:47,844 --> 00:10:49,844 Speaker 1: that the Nobel does try to keep it very close 187 00:10:50,084 --> 00:10:51,644 Speaker 1: to the best. Have you judged awards before? 188 00:10:53,164 --> 00:10:56,084 Speaker 2: Yeah? I did. A rotating two years to the higher 189 00:10:56,124 --> 00:10:59,524 Speaker 2: journalists were people, you know, to judge the Pulitzers for 190 00:10:59,564 --> 00:11:02,124 Speaker 2: like a two year stint and then Yester's wait another 191 00:11:02,164 --> 00:11:04,764 Speaker 2: decade before they invite you back. But that was fascinating, 192 00:11:04,844 --> 00:11:06,724 Speaker 2: right You spend is it like two or three days 193 00:11:06,844 --> 00:11:11,604 Speaker 2: up at the Columbia campus, and like for the Pulitzers, 194 00:11:12,524 --> 00:11:17,604 Speaker 2: you were given like a gigantic stack of applications in 195 00:11:17,684 --> 00:11:20,284 Speaker 2: your category. Right, I love the spirit of it. It's 196 00:11:20,284 --> 00:11:22,564 Speaker 2: a fun day. You get to meet I guess I 197 00:11:22,604 --> 00:11:24,644 Speaker 2: call myself a journalist among other things. I get to 198 00:11:24,644 --> 00:11:29,204 Speaker 2: meet like real journalists and interesting people, right, and with 199 00:11:29,244 --> 00:11:32,604 Speaker 2: different perspectives. But you're like, you're going through this shit 200 00:11:33,364 --> 00:11:36,164 Speaker 2: very fast. I'm not sure if it like applies the 201 00:11:36,204 --> 00:11:40,044 Speaker 2: same way to the Nobel Prize. Right, you know, one 202 00:11:40,044 --> 00:11:42,884 Speaker 2: thing I would know in general, if you're applied for 203 00:11:42,924 --> 00:11:46,804 Speaker 2: an award that's like judged by some panel or committee, 204 00:11:46,924 --> 00:11:50,444 Speaker 2: it's almost like student applications to some elite institution, right, 205 00:11:50,524 --> 00:11:53,964 Speaker 2: Like half of it to two thirds to three quarters 206 00:11:54,964 --> 00:12:02,124 Speaker 2: can be dismissed out of hand pretty much, right. You know, 207 00:12:02,324 --> 00:12:05,364 Speaker 2: if I'm a journalist and I'm judging different stories, there 208 00:12:05,364 --> 00:12:08,484 Speaker 2: are some stories that are prize bait, right, where like 209 00:12:09,444 --> 00:12:12,444 Speaker 2: aimed in this way. It's feature style and blah blah, 210 00:12:12,444 --> 00:12:16,324 Speaker 2: but it's important here's some person who overcame hardships, or 211 00:12:16,364 --> 00:12:18,724 Speaker 2: here's a person who took on city hall, right, and 212 00:12:18,924 --> 00:12:23,804 Speaker 2: like sometimes it's good, but it's sometimes not necessarily all 213 00:12:23,804 --> 00:12:28,164 Speaker 2: that impactful, right, Yep, it's kind of a little bit 214 00:12:28,164 --> 00:12:30,964 Speaker 2: paint by numbers, And like when I'm on the committee, 215 00:12:31,004 --> 00:12:32,924 Speaker 2: I don't particularly care for that type of story, right, 216 00:12:32,964 --> 00:12:35,364 Speaker 2: I kind of care more about like what maye be 217 00:12:35,564 --> 00:12:38,924 Speaker 2: a big splash in the world this year, Right. I 218 00:12:38,924 --> 00:12:40,084 Speaker 2: guess when I was doing it, was it during the 219 00:12:40,124 --> 00:12:43,404 Speaker 2: first Trump term race before COVID. Right, there's a bunch 220 00:12:43,404 --> 00:12:45,244 Speaker 2: of me too stuff. There was a bunch of Trump 221 00:12:45,924 --> 00:12:49,524 Speaker 2: Russia stuff right by the way. You know, you have 222 00:12:49,644 --> 00:12:52,524 Speaker 2: your group that makes a recommendation that can be overridden 223 00:12:52,564 --> 00:12:55,644 Speaker 2: by like the board of the poetry Prizes, which you 224 00:12:55,684 --> 00:12:59,524 Speaker 2: know might sound like it's having a heavy hand on 225 00:12:59,564 --> 00:13:02,964 Speaker 2: the scale, but like, but they're inherently political kind of things. 226 00:13:02,964 --> 00:13:05,404 Speaker 2: I think the poltries do better than some jobs, but 227 00:13:05,564 --> 00:13:09,524 Speaker 2: like it it. You know, it probably helps to to 228 00:13:09,684 --> 00:13:11,444 Speaker 2: know people I suppose. 229 00:13:11,364 --> 00:13:15,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, absolutely, And that's why I said that, you know, 230 00:13:15,204 --> 00:13:16,924 Speaker 1: some of the I think some of the prizes are 231 00:13:17,004 --> 00:13:21,204 Speaker 1: much more political than others. And even it's interesting because 232 00:13:22,284 --> 00:13:26,604 Speaker 1: in the Nobel Peace Prizes, that's very you know, that's 233 00:13:26,684 --> 00:13:29,604 Speaker 1: just egregiously the case. And by the way, that's not 234 00:13:29,764 --> 00:13:33,324 Speaker 1: a knock on this year's winner, who I think is 235 00:13:33,364 --> 00:13:37,604 Speaker 1: incredibly deserving. I'm not trying to subtly suggest that this 236 00:13:37,724 --> 00:13:41,164 Speaker 1: year's winners should not have a should not have one. 237 00:13:41,324 --> 00:13:43,924 Speaker 1: I do want to very strongly suggest that there are 238 00:13:43,964 --> 00:13:46,604 Speaker 1: past winners who should not have one, but she is 239 00:13:46,644 --> 00:13:51,884 Speaker 1: not among them. But even you know, even Peace Prize aside, 240 00:13:52,804 --> 00:13:56,764 Speaker 1: I do think that the Nobels have become more than 241 00:13:57,044 --> 00:14:00,924 Speaker 1: just oh, we think that this is the person most 242 00:14:01,004 --> 00:14:05,004 Speaker 1: deserving of a prize for their literary output, for instance. 243 00:14:05,284 --> 00:14:08,484 Speaker 1: And I say become, but this has always been the 244 00:14:08,524 --> 00:14:13,284 Speaker 1: case to some extent, and where there are political considerations 245 00:14:13,324 --> 00:14:16,484 Speaker 1: of all sorts. So I think with the Nobel Prizes 246 00:14:16,524 --> 00:14:20,604 Speaker 1: in literature, just you know, in recent years, the committee 247 00:14:20,924 --> 00:14:23,164 Speaker 1: was accused of having you know, too many white men, 248 00:14:23,204 --> 00:14:26,244 Speaker 1: too many Europeans, Americans, et cetera. And they're like, okay, 249 00:14:26,644 --> 00:14:28,724 Speaker 1: so how much of that is because we just have 250 00:14:29,564 --> 00:14:33,604 Speaker 1: a committee who's reading habits are inherently biased because of 251 00:14:33,644 --> 00:14:36,044 Speaker 1: who they are, right, Like, they're not trying to be biased, 252 00:14:36,044 --> 00:14:38,844 Speaker 1: but they just are not aware of a lot of 253 00:14:39,284 --> 00:14:45,084 Speaker 1: other literature. That's you know, that's painting them in a 254 00:14:45,124 --> 00:14:49,524 Speaker 1: non aeroditelite saying, you know, you haven't made those sorts 255 00:14:49,564 --> 00:14:53,324 Speaker 1: of comparisons. But sometimes then it's kind of like, you know, 256 00:14:54,804 --> 00:14:58,124 Speaker 1: it's a really it gets into really murky ground where 257 00:14:58,284 --> 00:14:59,844 Speaker 1: we're like, well, are we trying to have like a 258 00:14:59,924 --> 00:15:03,804 Speaker 1: quotea sistem right for Nobel prizes in literature where we 259 00:15:03,884 --> 00:15:07,004 Speaker 1: don't have you know, enough women, We don't have enough 260 00:15:07,604 --> 00:15:10,444 Speaker 1: people from you know, non u et cetera, et cetera, 261 00:15:10,484 --> 00:15:14,404 Speaker 1: et cetera. And I think that part of it is 262 00:15:14,604 --> 00:15:18,444 Speaker 1: just a lack of knowledge, a lack of exposure, a 263 00:15:18,564 --> 00:15:22,284 Speaker 1: lack of translation. Right, that's that's another important thing, Like 264 00:15:22,604 --> 00:15:24,644 Speaker 1: you need who sits on the committee? We don't know, 265 00:15:24,764 --> 00:15:27,484 Speaker 1: by the way, these are things that are very closely 266 00:15:28,204 --> 00:15:31,124 Speaker 1: guarded secrets. So like I do not you can't google 267 00:15:31,204 --> 00:15:34,724 Speaker 1: like who is the committee for the Nobel Prize in X? 268 00:15:35,204 --> 00:15:38,004 Speaker 2: Like have you sold a French edition of The Biggest FLA? 269 00:15:38,604 --> 00:15:39,044 Speaker 2: I have not. 270 00:15:39,324 --> 00:15:42,964 Speaker 1: Actually I have not sold French. I have not so 271 00:15:43,044 --> 00:15:46,004 Speaker 1: the French. I have not sold a single one of 272 00:15:46,004 --> 00:15:50,244 Speaker 1: my books in France ever. And my books this isn't 273 00:15:50,244 --> 00:15:53,084 Speaker 1: a brag, but like my books have been translated into 274 00:15:53,244 --> 00:15:56,484 Speaker 1: over twenty languages, right, like we sold rights all over 275 00:15:56,524 --> 00:15:59,604 Speaker 1: the world. France has never bought one of my books. 276 00:15:59,844 --> 00:16:02,004 Speaker 1: The first one. I was like, well, it's about Charlock Holmes. 277 00:16:02,004 --> 00:16:05,804 Speaker 1: It's very English, right, so maybe there's like an inherently 278 00:16:06,204 --> 00:16:09,364 Speaker 1: anti English bias, but yeah, no, the French do not 279 00:16:09,604 --> 00:16:11,644 Speaker 1: like buying American books, and. 280 00:16:12,164 --> 00:16:16,164 Speaker 2: I like France. I'm by the way, isn't the World 281 00:16:16,164 --> 00:16:18,764 Speaker 2: Bookage or the whatever European booked are back in Paris 282 00:16:18,844 --> 00:16:19,324 Speaker 2: next year. 283 00:16:19,684 --> 00:16:21,844 Speaker 1: Poker Stars is coming back to Paris in February with 284 00:16:21,924 --> 00:16:25,724 Speaker 1: the I will not leave until both of us have 285 00:16:25,804 --> 00:16:27,004 Speaker 1: sold our postil. 286 00:16:26,604 --> 00:16:30,044 Speaker 2: Both of us have books translated into French. I like wine, 287 00:16:30,204 --> 00:16:33,484 Speaker 2: I like coffee, I like lounging around, I like steak freez. 288 00:16:34,044 --> 00:16:36,284 Speaker 1: And there's so many amazing things about France. But yes, 289 00:16:36,324 --> 00:16:39,604 Speaker 1: they do not love our books, Nate, But you know 290 00:16:39,644 --> 00:16:42,644 Speaker 1: this is an issue, right, Translation is a problem. Like 291 00:16:42,764 --> 00:16:46,204 Speaker 1: the Winner this year, not all of his books have 292 00:16:46,244 --> 00:16:51,484 Speaker 1: been translated into English, and some have just been translated, 293 00:16:51,484 --> 00:16:55,204 Speaker 1: by the way, that's Lasno krasno Hork. He is Hungarian, 294 00:16:55,524 --> 00:16:59,124 Speaker 1: and I loved that. His last book, which I have 295 00:16:59,284 --> 00:17:02,484 Speaker 1: not read, is four hundred pages and contains one period 296 00:17:03,564 --> 00:17:07,924 Speaker 1: in the entire book. So so that should be an interesting, 297 00:17:08,044 --> 00:17:08,804 Speaker 1: interesting read. 298 00:17:09,604 --> 00:17:12,764 Speaker 2: As a purveyor of run on sentences myself, I'm officially 299 00:17:12,764 --> 00:17:13,124 Speaker 2: a fan. 300 00:17:13,204 --> 00:17:15,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, there you go. So you know, 301 00:17:16,044 --> 00:17:18,484 Speaker 1: but but you know, you get these you get these 302 00:17:18,724 --> 00:17:22,884 Speaker 1: winners who already are who already won the prize, right, 303 00:17:23,204 --> 00:17:26,644 Speaker 1: someone like this year's winner, And not all of his 304 00:17:26,644 --> 00:17:29,644 Speaker 1: books have been translated into English, and so I assume, 305 00:17:30,004 --> 00:17:33,484 Speaker 1: you know, other languages also suffer from that. Now, imagine 306 00:17:33,484 --> 00:17:36,404 Speaker 1: you're someone who hasn't like and he's someone who already 307 00:17:36,524 --> 00:17:39,364 Speaker 1: rose to that level of prominence. So there are issues 308 00:17:39,404 --> 00:17:42,164 Speaker 1: that end up, you know, making the prize a little 309 00:17:42,164 --> 00:17:46,164 Speaker 1: bit more politicized than one would think. And I said that, 310 00:17:46,564 --> 00:17:50,244 Speaker 1: you know, in recent memory, people have been pressuring the 311 00:17:50,244 --> 00:17:55,684 Speaker 1: committee saying, you know, you're you're representing too many similar voices. 312 00:17:56,164 --> 00:17:59,404 Speaker 1: And yet this has been an issue for a very 313 00:17:59,444 --> 00:18:02,764 Speaker 1: long time. So there have been two times that I 314 00:18:02,804 --> 00:18:06,044 Speaker 1: know of in history. Because deliberations are eventually made public. 315 00:18:06,564 --> 00:18:09,804 Speaker 1: I don't remember how many years after it's decades, but 316 00:18:10,804 --> 00:18:14,684 Speaker 1: you eventually, you eventually do know who was nominated and 317 00:18:14,764 --> 00:18:17,604 Speaker 1: like you do understand, you know why some people were 318 00:18:17,604 --> 00:18:21,364 Speaker 1: shot down, so I can. There are two instances in 319 00:18:21,484 --> 00:18:24,444 Speaker 1: history where I'm like, are you guys, are you kidding me? 320 00:18:24,844 --> 00:18:27,964 Speaker 1: And it shows different sources of biases. One, which I 321 00:18:27,964 --> 00:18:32,724 Speaker 1: think is the single most egregious one is w. H. 322 00:18:32,724 --> 00:18:35,804 Speaker 1: Auden did not get the Nobel Prize in literature. He 323 00:18:35,964 --> 00:18:39,804 Speaker 1: was gay. He was very openly gay. He was, you know, 324 00:18:40,044 --> 00:18:44,804 Speaker 1: very vocal about it. And this was not it's not 325 00:18:44,924 --> 00:18:47,684 Speaker 1: like it's there's a line that says we are not 326 00:18:47,804 --> 00:18:50,284 Speaker 1: giving him the prize because he's gay, But you can 327 00:18:50,364 --> 00:18:54,084 Speaker 1: read between the lines, and he did not get it 328 00:18:54,124 --> 00:18:57,364 Speaker 1: because of his sexual orientation. He's one of the greatest 329 00:18:57,404 --> 00:19:00,044 Speaker 1: poets writers of the twentieth century and the fact that 330 00:19:00,084 --> 00:19:02,244 Speaker 1: he wasn't given the Nobel Prize because of a sexual 331 00:19:02,484 --> 00:19:08,004 Speaker 1: orientation is horrible. Now, second one shows a very different 332 00:19:08,044 --> 00:19:11,684 Speaker 1: sort of bias. White streat Mail. This time Tolkien j R. 333 00:19:11,844 --> 00:19:15,364 Speaker 1: Tolkien did not win the Nobel Prize because people were 334 00:19:15,364 --> 00:19:18,884 Speaker 1: biased against the types of books that he wrote and said, 335 00:19:18,924 --> 00:19:22,204 Speaker 1: you know, oh you know, fantasy is not real literature. 336 00:19:22,884 --> 00:19:26,004 Speaker 1: It's not going to stand the test of time. But 337 00:19:26,124 --> 00:19:29,044 Speaker 1: the year that Tolkien was up, the person who won 338 00:19:29,124 --> 00:19:31,364 Speaker 1: that year, like I have no idea who the fuck 339 00:19:31,404 --> 00:19:35,164 Speaker 1: that is, and like no one remembers that name, and 340 00:19:35,404 --> 00:19:40,324 Speaker 1: everyone knows Tolkien's name, and like it's one of those 341 00:19:40,364 --> 00:19:43,084 Speaker 1: things where I'm like, wow, you guys are just there 342 00:19:43,084 --> 00:19:46,484 Speaker 1: have been closed minded biases around this prize for a 343 00:19:46,644 --> 00:19:50,404 Speaker 1: very very long time, basically since its inception. So instead 344 00:19:50,404 --> 00:19:53,164 Speaker 1: of saying, this is the prize for the you know, 345 00:19:53,284 --> 00:19:56,684 Speaker 1: single most deserving author, just like with all everything, I 346 00:19:56,684 --> 00:20:00,284 Speaker 1: think we need to caveat it. Right that has risen 347 00:20:00,324 --> 00:20:04,204 Speaker 1: to a certain level, whose works have been translated, and 348 00:20:04,244 --> 00:20:06,724 Speaker 1: we don't take issue with the type of writing you do, 349 00:20:07,244 --> 00:20:10,364 Speaker 1: the type of person you are, et ce cetera, et cetera. 350 00:20:11,404 --> 00:20:14,444 Speaker 1: So I think that that's something that's really important to 351 00:20:14,484 --> 00:20:18,484 Speaker 1: keep in mind. And you would think that the other prizes, 352 00:20:18,684 --> 00:20:23,284 Speaker 1: like you know, medicine, physics, economics, that they're a little 353 00:20:23,284 --> 00:20:28,324 Speaker 1: bit potentially, especially with something like physics more straightforward. And 354 00:20:28,444 --> 00:20:32,044 Speaker 1: I actually, just to be perfectly honest, I don't know literature. 355 00:20:32,084 --> 00:20:33,924 Speaker 1: I've done a lot of deep dives into the history 356 00:20:33,964 --> 00:20:36,284 Speaker 1: because it's something you know, it's my field. It's something 357 00:20:36,284 --> 00:20:39,924 Speaker 1: that I feel very passionately about. And I wouldn't be 358 00:20:39,964 --> 00:20:42,364 Speaker 1: surprised if I went down the line of you know, 359 00:20:42,404 --> 00:20:46,364 Speaker 1: physics and realized how much controversy there was there. I 360 00:20:46,364 --> 00:20:48,884 Speaker 1: do know that there is controversy and who exactly gets 361 00:20:49,004 --> 00:20:52,804 Speaker 1: prizes for discoveries right? Because sometimes if you know that 362 00:20:52,844 --> 00:20:55,484 Speaker 1: a certain discovery is going to win the prize in physics, medicine, 363 00:20:55,524 --> 00:20:58,044 Speaker 1: et cetera, how do you divide it? Right? How do 364 00:20:58,084 --> 00:21:00,804 Speaker 1: you actually decide who's going to get it? Who's going 365 00:21:00,844 --> 00:21:03,284 Speaker 1: to get credit for this? Does one person get it? 366 00:21:03,324 --> 00:21:05,284 Speaker 1: To two people get it? Do three people get it? 367 00:21:05,284 --> 00:21:08,244 Speaker 1: Because sometimes it is split. This year's prize in economics 368 00:21:08,244 --> 00:21:10,804 Speaker 1: will split three ways. One person got half the prize 369 00:21:10,804 --> 00:21:12,804 Speaker 1: and then two people had to split the other half. 370 00:21:13,164 --> 00:21:15,924 Speaker 1: So you have to make determinations like that all the time. 371 00:21:16,524 --> 00:21:18,644 Speaker 2: You have to be alive too, You have to be alive. 372 00:21:18,684 --> 00:21:20,804 Speaker 2: That's actually interesting, that is huge. 373 00:21:20,804 --> 00:21:24,044 Speaker 1: That's actually really important. So like when Daniel Konnoman won 374 00:21:24,644 --> 00:21:27,764 Speaker 1: the Nobel Prize for his work with Tabarski, Tierski couldn't 375 00:21:27,764 --> 00:21:32,084 Speaker 1: win it, right, even though he did, he did half 376 00:21:32,124 --> 00:21:34,764 Speaker 1: the research. Right, he was half the team, but Conoman 377 00:21:34,884 --> 00:21:36,004 Speaker 1: was alive. Twarski was not. 378 00:21:37,044 --> 00:21:41,764 Speaker 2: My grandparents who are passed away, you know, they would says, 379 00:21:41,804 --> 00:21:44,844 Speaker 2: how do you guys stay married for for fifty years 380 00:21:44,884 --> 00:21:46,044 Speaker 2: or became sixty years eventually? 381 00:21:46,124 --> 00:21:46,244 Speaker 1: Right? 382 00:21:46,324 --> 00:21:49,284 Speaker 2: My grandfather was always like, well, there are three key components, right, 383 00:21:50,124 --> 00:21:55,804 Speaker 2: get married young number one, stay together and don't die. 384 00:21:56,004 --> 00:22:00,484 Speaker 2: The don't die a part is really it's really quite 385 00:22:00,484 --> 00:22:08,044 Speaker 2: important for winning a Nobel On for other things. 386 00:22:08,884 --> 00:22:10,284 Speaker 1: And we'll be back right after this. 387 00:22:27,964 --> 00:22:29,324 Speaker 2: You want to talk a little b about the Economics 388 00:22:29,324 --> 00:22:30,884 Speaker 2: Prize of one thing that I kind of you know, 389 00:22:31,124 --> 00:22:33,004 Speaker 2: I don't know the other two I do know Joel, 390 00:22:33,404 --> 00:22:35,804 Speaker 2: I always thought it was mochr m ok y r. 391 00:22:35,964 --> 00:22:39,084 Speaker 1: I don't actually, yeah, I don't know how it's more okay. 392 00:22:39,284 --> 00:22:43,444 Speaker 2: He's Dutch, Israeli, American. You know a lot of different 393 00:22:43,524 --> 00:22:48,804 Speaker 2: ingredients here. But he does work on economic history in particular. 394 00:22:49,284 --> 00:22:53,164 Speaker 2: I'm going to do very basic stuff, right. If you know, 395 00:22:53,164 --> 00:22:57,644 Speaker 2: if you study economic history, then very stylized competition in 396 00:22:57,684 --> 00:23:01,204 Speaker 2: the facts. Right, you learn that progress is unusual, Right, 397 00:23:01,324 --> 00:23:06,244 Speaker 2: that like humanity has spent most of its existence barely 398 00:23:06,284 --> 00:23:11,364 Speaker 2: eking out a living where innovations are slow to come by, 399 00:23:11,484 --> 00:23:14,644 Speaker 2: there's wars, you might have empires, the empires die out 400 00:23:14,724 --> 00:23:18,844 Speaker 2: after some period of time. And then in the Industrial 401 00:23:18,884 --> 00:23:23,964 Speaker 2: Revolution we had this spark and things began to catalyze 402 00:23:23,964 --> 00:23:28,124 Speaker 2: and into revolution we've had We've had growth. Right at first, 403 00:23:28,124 --> 00:23:30,724 Speaker 2: the growth might be zero point five percent per year 404 00:23:30,764 --> 00:23:34,324 Speaker 2: on top of population growth, although population growth is also important, 405 00:23:34,324 --> 00:23:37,164 Speaker 2: and then it gets up to one percent, two percent, three percent, 406 00:23:37,484 --> 00:23:39,444 Speaker 2: it begins to compound, and so you know, I think 407 00:23:39,844 --> 00:23:44,444 Speaker 2: a history is like a vitally undercovered topic. I think one, 408 00:23:44,564 --> 00:23:49,044 Speaker 2: you know, the average liberal or conservative, this is where 409 00:23:49,084 --> 00:23:51,124 Speaker 2: I think both sides like are full of shit, right. 410 00:23:51,204 --> 00:23:53,604 Speaker 2: I don't think they understand that, like that progress is 411 00:23:53,644 --> 00:23:56,724 Speaker 2: not the default by any means for human history. Right. 412 00:23:56,844 --> 00:24:01,324 Speaker 2: In some ways, its a very pessimistic interpretation of human history, right, 413 00:24:01,404 --> 00:24:03,524 Speaker 2: you know, I mean, you know, now people who think 414 00:24:03,564 --> 00:24:05,644 Speaker 2: that we're on the verge of an ai singularity of saying, okay, 415 00:24:05,684 --> 00:24:08,004 Speaker 2: we're gonna have like an in my book on the 416 00:24:08,084 --> 00:24:10,484 Speaker 2: Edge the Art ofversking everything from publishers ever worre no 417 00:24:10,564 --> 00:24:15,124 Speaker 2: I in my book, you know, I'm using the revolution 418 00:24:15,244 --> 00:24:17,924 Speaker 2: as a paradigm for like what might happen if you 419 00:24:17,924 --> 00:24:21,524 Speaker 2: had very rapid ai growth, right, and the revolution. Of course, 420 00:24:21,564 --> 00:24:24,004 Speaker 2: you had a lot of change of institutions. You have 421 00:24:24,124 --> 00:24:26,084 Speaker 2: the Enlightenment, you had the American Revolution, you had the 422 00:24:26,084 --> 00:24:32,204 Speaker 2: French Revolution. There is always some debate about what came first, Right, 423 00:24:32,564 --> 00:24:37,884 Speaker 2: did you have this technological shock and then institutions catered 424 00:24:37,924 --> 00:24:40,404 Speaker 2: to that. You know, that period of time, maybe things 425 00:24:40,404 --> 00:24:42,484 Speaker 2: that were more a liberal, right, like land didn't matter 426 00:24:42,524 --> 00:24:44,684 Speaker 2: as much now labor power data, and that changes the 427 00:24:44,724 --> 00:24:47,084 Speaker 2: way that all society relates to one of You also 428 00:24:47,084 --> 00:24:49,644 Speaker 2: have wealth that people are not just at subsistence. People 429 00:24:49,684 --> 00:24:51,404 Speaker 2: are not just presents anymore. Although it takes a long 430 00:24:51,444 --> 00:24:54,444 Speaker 2: time to expand that franchise and so forth, right and 431 00:24:54,484 --> 00:24:57,844 Speaker 2: so like, I was very glad to see economic history 432 00:24:58,404 --> 00:25:02,244 Speaker 2: get it to do. I think, you know, the critique 433 00:25:02,244 --> 00:25:04,964 Speaker 2: of economic historians that they're neither economists nor historians. Jill 434 00:25:05,044 --> 00:25:07,684 Speaker 2: Muker Again, I don't know, the two is excellent. I 435 00:25:07,684 --> 00:25:11,564 Speaker 2: think at both. And you know, considering the stakes of 436 00:25:11,644 --> 00:25:17,724 Speaker 2: like why does humanity, why do civilizations grow or stagnate 437 00:25:17,924 --> 00:25:20,804 Speaker 2: or die out, it seems like a very high stakes 438 00:25:20,884 --> 00:25:23,724 Speaker 2: question that most people don't know very much about. Yeah. 439 00:25:23,764 --> 00:25:27,804 Speaker 1: Absolutely, and I'm especially grateful in the present day and age, 440 00:25:27,804 --> 00:25:32,364 Speaker 1: where people seem to be devaluing the importance of history 441 00:25:32,644 --> 00:25:36,244 Speaker 1: and historians in general. I think it's it's very important 442 00:25:36,564 --> 00:25:40,284 Speaker 1: to to illustrate just how important economic I mean history 443 00:25:40,284 --> 00:25:43,684 Speaker 1: in general is, but economic history specifically. And the other 444 00:25:43,724 --> 00:25:46,964 Speaker 1: two winners, by the way, are Peter Howitt I think 445 00:25:47,004 --> 00:25:51,244 Speaker 1: I got that pronunciation correct, and Philippe Agill. And sorry 446 00:25:51,284 --> 00:25:55,764 Speaker 1: if I butchered that one, because you know, I have 447 00:25:55,924 --> 00:25:59,484 Speaker 1: not heard these names pronounced. I've only ever read them. 448 00:25:59,844 --> 00:26:03,564 Speaker 1: And they were awarded it for their work on creative destruction. 449 00:26:04,204 --> 00:26:07,684 Speaker 1: So the concept of creative destruction, so the process by 450 00:26:07,684 --> 00:26:13,164 Speaker 1: which something new, something innovative, will replace older technologies and businesses. 451 00:26:13,604 --> 00:26:16,604 Speaker 1: And that was originally to put a little more history here. 452 00:26:16,804 --> 00:26:21,644 Speaker 1: It was originally coined in a nineteen forty two book Capitalism, Socialism, 453 00:26:21,684 --> 00:26:27,124 Speaker 1: and Democracy by Joseph Schumpeter. Schumpeter, how do you pronounce it? 454 00:26:27,444 --> 00:26:29,964 Speaker 1: I don't know how to pronounce any of these last names, Nate, 455 00:26:30,044 --> 00:26:33,564 Speaker 1: this is going to be riddled with riddled with a 456 00:26:33,684 --> 00:26:36,244 Speaker 1: mispronunciation episode. 457 00:26:36,764 --> 00:26:38,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's kind of become a little bit 458 00:26:38,604 --> 00:26:41,804 Speaker 2: of a buzzword in Silicon Valley where it can be. 459 00:26:42,564 --> 00:26:44,124 Speaker 2: You know, hey man, let's go to burning man do 460 00:26:44,164 --> 00:26:49,404 Speaker 2: some creative instruction kind of thing. But yeah, look, one 461 00:26:49,444 --> 00:26:53,684 Speaker 2: of the core basic foundations of both capitalism and democracy, 462 00:26:53,884 --> 00:26:57,684 Speaker 2: which is why they have some correlation often repaired together. 463 00:26:57,724 --> 00:27:02,004 Speaker 2: I mean, they both ideally should believe in competition, right. 464 00:27:02,044 --> 00:27:03,484 Speaker 2: I mean this is why I think people, you know, 465 00:27:03,684 --> 00:27:07,604 Speaker 2: and I'd put these both under liberalism. Like people are flawed. 466 00:27:07,724 --> 00:27:09,644 Speaker 2: It is hard to predict the future. It is hard 467 00:27:09,684 --> 00:27:11,364 Speaker 2: to know what's going to work, hard to no ideas 468 00:27:11,404 --> 00:27:14,684 Speaker 2: what find a market, right, and so and so you 469 00:27:14,724 --> 00:27:18,124 Speaker 2: want them to compete instead of to have central planning, right. 470 00:27:18,124 --> 00:27:20,444 Speaker 2: And this is more of a risky business kind of topic, right, 471 00:27:20,444 --> 00:27:22,404 Speaker 2: But like you know, a lot of it is the 472 00:27:22,524 --> 00:27:27,564 Speaker 2: value of of optionality. Right. You know, if I were 473 00:27:27,564 --> 00:27:30,604 Speaker 2: living in some small town and I could like commission 474 00:27:30,604 --> 00:27:33,884 Speaker 2: the perfect restaurant in my town, right, maybe I'm some patron, right, 475 00:27:34,044 --> 00:27:37,924 Speaker 2: I'd rather have like five in a food hall or something, right, 476 00:27:38,004 --> 00:27:41,084 Speaker 2: and then the best ones can can survive because there's 477 00:27:41,124 --> 00:27:45,124 Speaker 2: uncertainty because like you know, because it creates proper incentives. 478 00:27:45,204 --> 00:27:51,604 Speaker 2: And it also means that like that older institutions sometimes 479 00:27:51,644 --> 00:27:58,084 Speaker 2: have to be replaced and destroyed, right, I think ironically 480 00:27:58,084 --> 00:28:00,684 Speaker 2: and ironically, I guess ironically only because we're talking about Europe, 481 00:28:00,724 --> 00:28:03,164 Speaker 2: you know, but like small things like that, like making 482 00:28:03,164 --> 00:28:07,164 Speaker 2: it hard to fire unsuccessful employees or making it hard 483 00:28:07,204 --> 00:28:11,124 Speaker 2: to dislodge businesses, that having him with the government. But 484 00:28:11,244 --> 00:28:13,244 Speaker 2: like that's it's very it's very important. And you know, 485 00:28:13,244 --> 00:28:17,244 Speaker 2: the thing about economic history too, is like again for 486 00:28:17,364 --> 00:28:20,244 Speaker 2: our audience, it's kind of like a one oh one concept, 487 00:28:20,284 --> 00:28:24,684 Speaker 2: but the notion of like compounding growth when you're looking 488 00:28:24,804 --> 00:28:27,724 Speaker 2: taking the truly long term perspective. I probably said versions 489 00:28:27,724 --> 00:28:30,964 Speaker 2: of this before, but like you know, I am worried 490 00:28:31,484 --> 00:28:35,804 Speaker 2: in the Trump era about America like squandering its leadership 491 00:28:36,324 --> 00:28:39,964 Speaker 2: in various ways, including its economic leadership, and that having 492 00:28:40,164 --> 00:28:43,924 Speaker 2: compounding effects. Right, I mean, the US has like a 493 00:28:44,084 --> 00:28:47,764 Speaker 2: big lead over the rest of the world, and a 494 00:28:47,804 --> 00:28:50,204 Speaker 2: lot a lot of advantages, a lot of advantages, worlds 495 00:28:50,244 --> 00:28:55,804 Speaker 2: leading currency, world's largest or you know, most effective military, right, 496 00:28:58,284 --> 00:29:04,684 Speaker 2: world's most number of founders, I guess, effectively, right, you know, 497 00:29:04,724 --> 00:29:06,444 Speaker 2: we're in a very we even very America is a 498 00:29:06,444 --> 00:29:08,564 Speaker 2: beautiful country. You got lots of good land. Whoops, almos 499 00:29:08,604 --> 00:29:12,284 Speaker 2: knocked over a lamp, and like we're starting from a 500 00:29:12,364 --> 00:29:16,364 Speaker 2: very high point, and you know, fortunately every other country 501 00:29:16,444 --> 00:29:18,884 Speaker 2: is fucking up too, right, But like, but yeah, when 502 00:29:18,884 --> 00:29:20,484 Speaker 2: you go from like three percent to two percent to 503 00:29:20,524 --> 00:29:23,524 Speaker 2: one percent to negative one percent GDP growth per capita 504 00:29:23,884 --> 00:29:27,444 Speaker 2: over time, then you really notice that after a generation 505 00:29:27,844 --> 00:29:30,924 Speaker 2: and and you know, you kind of need more of 506 00:29:30,964 --> 00:29:33,844 Speaker 2: an economic history of perspective, comparative perspective at least to 507 00:29:34,444 --> 00:29:35,724 Speaker 2: understand the implications of that. 508 00:29:36,044 --> 00:29:40,844 Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, And mok here is someone who's definitely thought 509 00:29:40,884 --> 00:29:46,844 Speaker 1: a lot about the implications of creative destruction and kind 510 00:29:46,884 --> 00:29:50,324 Speaker 1: of how how you need to think about it in 511 00:29:50,444 --> 00:29:53,604 Speaker 1: order to enable long term growth, right and not just 512 00:29:53,764 --> 00:29:56,964 Speaker 1: like have this short like let's move fast and break 513 00:29:56,964 --> 00:30:01,484 Speaker 1: shit type of mentality, because one of the elements of 514 00:30:01,524 --> 00:30:06,364 Speaker 1: his work, of all three of their's work, is that 515 00:30:07,364 --> 00:30:12,484 Speaker 1: in order for the innovations to have lasting positive impact, 516 00:30:13,004 --> 00:30:18,044 Speaker 1: you need to actually support the individuals who were affected 517 00:30:18,164 --> 00:30:22,124 Speaker 1: by the changes and be able to protect the workers 518 00:30:22,964 --> 00:30:26,364 Speaker 1: and move them to kind of more productive other jobs. 519 00:30:26,644 --> 00:30:31,324 Speaker 1: So he's not saying that you need to protect specific jobs. 520 00:30:31,724 --> 00:30:34,324 Speaker 1: You know, jobs are going to get replaced, right, because 521 00:30:34,684 --> 00:30:37,924 Speaker 1: that's the nature of the way the world works, But 522 00:30:38,004 --> 00:30:42,164 Speaker 1: you do need to know how to actually protect productivity 523 00:30:42,204 --> 00:30:45,564 Speaker 1: and protect workers. And if you don't do that, right, 524 00:30:45,604 --> 00:30:47,764 Speaker 1: if you don't actually do everything together and have a 525 00:30:47,804 --> 00:30:51,044 Speaker 1: full vision for how this will work with long term 526 00:30:51,084 --> 00:30:55,564 Speaker 1: societal impact, you might be negatively surprised. So this is 527 00:30:55,884 --> 00:30:59,124 Speaker 1: I think something that a lot of people don't realize, 528 00:30:59,284 --> 00:31:01,324 Speaker 1: right when they're like, oh, well, we just need to innovate, 529 00:31:01,404 --> 00:31:04,524 Speaker 1: But they don't realize that they're actually ways of innovating 530 00:31:04,524 --> 00:31:10,844 Speaker 1: successfully that have long term positive economic implication and ways 531 00:31:10,844 --> 00:31:14,764 Speaker 1: of doing it in a much less successful way. And 532 00:31:14,924 --> 00:31:19,724 Speaker 1: people don't normally couple those things together necessarily. They're like, yeah, 533 00:31:19,764 --> 00:31:21,004 Speaker 1: the market will just figure it out. 534 00:31:22,044 --> 00:31:25,564 Speaker 2: Yeah, And kind of when you look back at history 535 00:31:25,564 --> 00:31:28,204 Speaker 2: with a very long lens, right, you're like, oh, there 536 00:31:28,284 --> 00:31:33,164 Speaker 2: was political turmoil during this time, right, and you don't 537 00:31:33,204 --> 00:31:39,284 Speaker 2: live through that turmoil necessarily, right. Yeah. It's particularly interesting 538 00:31:39,284 --> 00:31:44,404 Speaker 2: in the case of AI where explicitly some of the 539 00:31:44,484 --> 00:31:48,004 Speaker 2: leaders in Silicon Valley are saying they're not saying we're 540 00:31:48,004 --> 00:31:51,764 Speaker 2: going to create millions of new high paying jobs, right, 541 00:31:52,604 --> 00:31:55,044 Speaker 2: some of them are saying, we're going to create a 542 00:31:55,084 --> 00:31:59,044 Speaker 2: life of leisure for people where you can create weird 543 00:31:59,124 --> 00:32:02,444 Speaker 2: Soora videos of furries having sex and I don't know 544 00:32:02,444 --> 00:32:06,004 Speaker 2: what you're going to do right in neglecting like the 545 00:32:06,164 --> 00:32:10,404 Speaker 2: dignity of work or the fact get like you know 546 00:32:10,444 --> 00:32:14,524 Speaker 2: you're gonna have like a political of people is a euphemism, right, 547 00:32:14,564 --> 00:32:17,204 Speaker 2: you know, if you kind of like take everyone's jobs, 548 00:32:17,204 --> 00:32:21,404 Speaker 2: you might have a revolution or something, right, and ignoring 549 00:32:21,484 --> 00:32:24,644 Speaker 2: kind of that history lesson, even though some people, you know, 550 00:32:25,004 --> 00:32:29,324 Speaker 2: Patrick Collison is the CEO of Stripe, and he and 551 00:32:29,404 --> 00:32:31,604 Speaker 2: Tyler Conwan economists have kind of like founded a field 552 00:32:31,644 --> 00:32:33,524 Speaker 2: called progress studies, which in this kind of the like 553 00:32:33,884 --> 00:32:38,724 Speaker 2: same vein potentially, but like the politics and the economics 554 00:32:39,124 --> 00:32:43,404 Speaker 2: are intertwined. I think probably there's too much of saying 555 00:32:43,524 --> 00:32:45,884 Speaker 2: we have to preserve these kind of coal miners jobs, 556 00:32:45,884 --> 00:32:49,004 Speaker 2: and you have like parochial interests and things like that. 557 00:32:49,044 --> 00:32:53,644 Speaker 2: But if you have very widespread destructions of existing institutions 558 00:32:54,204 --> 00:32:59,204 Speaker 2: and you don't have a good plan to create new institutions, 559 00:32:59,324 --> 00:33:02,484 Speaker 2: then that could get very messy. Potentially. I'm not sure 560 00:33:02,524 --> 00:33:05,764 Speaker 2: it's a good precedent. You know. Again, I worried about 561 00:33:05,764 --> 00:33:11,004 Speaker 2: the combination of rapid technological change with declining institutions, right, 562 00:33:11,124 --> 00:33:15,444 Speaker 2: and and the fact that the technologies involved in some 563 00:33:15,484 --> 00:33:20,044 Speaker 2: ways people checking out from civic life. I mean again, 564 00:33:20,124 --> 00:33:22,244 Speaker 2: after World War Two, we kind of had a new 565 00:33:22,404 --> 00:33:26,564 Speaker 2: world order somewhat literally. We also had the development of 566 00:33:26,604 --> 00:33:29,564 Speaker 2: the atomic bomb. It probably is another episode, right, but 567 00:33:29,564 --> 00:33:32,644 Speaker 2: you also did the development of the United Nations, which, 568 00:33:32,684 --> 00:33:35,084 Speaker 2: whatever you think of it, I get annoyed because it 569 00:33:35,084 --> 00:33:37,684 Speaker 2: makes it a fucking nightmare to commute to the East 570 00:33:37,684 --> 00:33:39,524 Speaker 2: Side for a couple of months every year when they 571 00:33:39,524 --> 00:33:40,244 Speaker 2: have a conference. 572 00:33:40,324 --> 00:33:40,484 Speaker 1: Right. 573 00:33:40,564 --> 00:33:43,524 Speaker 2: Good, and by the way, the building is the building 574 00:33:43,604 --> 00:33:45,324 Speaker 2: is not super and I feel like that you went 575 00:33:45,364 --> 00:33:46,404 Speaker 2: you a fucking better building. 576 00:33:46,924 --> 00:33:49,604 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna do a total caveat on our Nobel 577 00:33:49,684 --> 00:33:54,644 Speaker 1: episode to just complain. So that was the United Nations 578 00:33:54,724 --> 00:33:58,164 Speaker 1: was meeting when we were trying to rent a car 579 00:33:58,364 --> 00:34:02,164 Speaker 1: and drive to Vermont and rented the car in Midtown 580 00:34:02,324 --> 00:34:05,564 Speaker 1: because I'm an idiot and forgot and had to wait 581 00:34:05,644 --> 00:34:08,924 Speaker 1: for an hour basically to leave the garage because the 582 00:34:08,964 --> 00:34:12,484 Speaker 1: block the car was on had dignitaries staying on it, 583 00:34:12,524 --> 00:34:15,204 Speaker 1: and then everything was blocked off. Anyway, it was just 584 00:34:15,244 --> 00:34:17,484 Speaker 1: such a nightmare and I was like, Okay, I'm just 585 00:34:17,524 --> 00:34:20,764 Speaker 1: never going to go to Midtown Manhattan when the UN 586 00:34:20,844 --> 00:34:25,764 Speaker 1: is meeting ever again. Anyway, that's a big caveat. But yes, 587 00:34:26,004 --> 00:34:28,844 Speaker 1: you can be annoyed by that. But your broader point 588 00:34:29,004 --> 00:34:31,564 Speaker 1: it is an incredibly important one, and I want to 589 00:34:31,604 --> 00:34:33,684 Speaker 1: make sure that we stay with it, which is that 590 00:34:34,084 --> 00:34:38,804 Speaker 1: the institutions that came out of it were actually incredibly important, 591 00:34:38,844 --> 00:34:42,164 Speaker 1: and that you need multiple prongs for stability, and that 592 00:34:42,204 --> 00:34:44,804 Speaker 1: you might have issues with a lot of the kind 593 00:34:44,844 --> 00:34:48,244 Speaker 1: of UN directions, you might have issues with the UN traffic, 594 00:34:48,644 --> 00:34:50,724 Speaker 1: you might have issues with more important things that the 595 00:34:50,804 --> 00:34:53,484 Speaker 1: UN does, But the fact that you do have this 596 00:34:53,964 --> 00:35:00,324 Speaker 1: societal structure is something that helped prevent innovation with negative 597 00:35:00,404 --> 00:35:03,044 Speaker 1: kind of with the negative social disruptions that might have 598 00:35:03,164 --> 00:35:07,444 Speaker 1: otherwise accompanied it, with the social displacements, with the revolutionary 599 00:35:07,604 --> 00:35:11,404 Speaker 1: forces that people tend to gloss over. 600 00:35:14,564 --> 00:35:29,124 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break, Mariet, what 601 00:35:29,124 --> 00:35:32,284 Speaker 2: would you give yourself a Nobel Prize for nothing? 602 00:35:34,204 --> 00:35:37,564 Speaker 1: I don't think I deserve a Nobel prize, Nate. If 603 00:35:37,604 --> 00:35:39,684 Speaker 1: I were to give you a Nobel prize, Nate, I 604 00:35:39,724 --> 00:35:43,124 Speaker 1: would give you the prize in economics, and you would 605 00:35:43,124 --> 00:35:45,204 Speaker 1: get it for some of your statistical stuff. And I'm 606 00:35:45,204 --> 00:35:47,924 Speaker 1: sure that by the time you get your Nobel Prize, 607 00:35:48,764 --> 00:35:51,964 Speaker 1: you will have come up with some, you know, great 608 00:35:52,004 --> 00:35:57,764 Speaker 1: statistical innovations that help us forecast and project more accurately, 609 00:35:58,044 --> 00:36:02,044 Speaker 1: and hopefully, because we're friends, I'll be able to profit 610 00:36:02,084 --> 00:36:06,484 Speaker 1: off of that by placing very nice bets on prediction markets. 611 00:36:10,204 --> 00:36:11,964 Speaker 2: Because I would give you the prize in literature because 612 00:36:11,964 --> 00:36:13,004 Speaker 2: I know. 613 00:36:12,324 --> 00:36:15,524 Speaker 1: I have written fiction, and I hope you're very good writer. Well, 614 00:36:15,524 --> 00:36:18,844 Speaker 1: I appreciate that night, and yes, and I hope to 615 00:36:19,004 --> 00:36:22,804 Speaker 1: write more fiction in the future. So that is something 616 00:36:22,844 --> 00:36:24,844 Speaker 1: that I'm definitely I feel. 617 00:36:24,644 --> 00:36:26,804 Speaker 2: Like we're probably being in puckle world. We probably both 618 00:36:26,844 --> 00:36:30,324 Speaker 2: deserve the Noble Piece Prize for listening to bad beat 619 00:36:30,364 --> 00:36:31,244 Speaker 2: stories over the years. 620 00:36:31,284 --> 00:36:34,444 Speaker 1: Yeah, we could collectively. I think we could collectively take 621 00:36:34,484 --> 00:36:38,204 Speaker 1: a Nobel Piece Prize for listening to bad beat stories 622 00:36:38,244 --> 00:36:41,604 Speaker 1: and not actually physically harming anyone who tells us a 623 00:36:41,644 --> 00:36:44,604 Speaker 1: bad beat story, even though sometimes I really really want tonight. 624 00:36:45,084 --> 00:36:48,804 Speaker 1: There are some people who you just when they're like Maria, hey, 625 00:36:48,804 --> 00:36:51,324 Speaker 1: do you want to grab dinner? I'm like, oh no, no, no, 626 00:36:51,324 --> 00:36:54,044 Speaker 1: no no. You probably know some of these people and 627 00:36:54,084 --> 00:36:56,484 Speaker 1: you just want to run away, and when you actually 628 00:36:56,524 --> 00:36:59,204 Speaker 1: are cornered and end up in a conversation with them 629 00:36:59,324 --> 00:37:01,684 Speaker 1: or at a dinner with them, and you smile and 630 00:37:01,724 --> 00:37:03,484 Speaker 1: nod through the whole thing. You do feel like a 631 00:37:03,564 --> 00:37:05,684 Speaker 1: mediator who's made world peace possible. 632 00:37:06,604 --> 00:37:09,124 Speaker 2: Can you believe that that flush came in on that river? Again? 633 00:37:09,804 --> 00:37:11,964 Speaker 1: Can you believe the idiot who stayed in the hand 634 00:37:12,044 --> 00:37:15,324 Speaker 1: until the river? The odds were so bad? How does 635 00:37:15,324 --> 00:37:17,564 Speaker 1: this fish ever make any money? By the way, Nate, 636 00:37:17,724 --> 00:37:19,844 Speaker 1: this is totally off Well, it's not off topic with 637 00:37:19,884 --> 00:37:22,364 Speaker 1: the poker bad beats, but have you noticed that there's 638 00:37:22,404 --> 00:37:24,324 Speaker 1: a certain type of person who whenever they tell you 639 00:37:24,604 --> 00:37:27,644 Speaker 1: hand histories, this usually goes hand in hand with bad 640 00:37:27,724 --> 00:37:30,484 Speaker 1: beats stories. It's always like the whale in the one 641 00:37:30,524 --> 00:37:32,884 Speaker 1: seat did this, and then the fish did this, and 642 00:37:32,924 --> 00:37:35,844 Speaker 1: then the idiot did this. It seems like every single 643 00:37:35,884 --> 00:37:39,564 Speaker 1: person at their table is a whale, a fish, an idiot, 644 00:37:39,604 --> 00:37:43,124 Speaker 1: a donk, a something bad and no one is actually 645 00:37:43,644 --> 00:37:46,164 Speaker 1: and from their descriptions, I'm like, wow, I want to 646 00:37:46,164 --> 00:37:48,844 Speaker 1: play in that tournament, you know, seems like seems like 647 00:37:48,884 --> 00:37:51,044 Speaker 1: a great field. No. 648 00:37:51,204 --> 00:37:53,084 Speaker 2: The way you can learn a lot from the causes 649 00:37:53,084 --> 00:37:55,764 Speaker 2: of death. I once called it in a poker tournament, right, 650 00:37:55,804 --> 00:37:57,484 Speaker 2: and once like created a texta one and they're like 651 00:37:58,524 --> 00:38:02,604 Speaker 2: thirteen ways to die, right, and how do you die? 652 00:38:02,924 --> 00:38:04,764 Speaker 2: You know, I go up, sometimes I go with a 653 00:38:04,764 --> 00:38:07,924 Speaker 2: bluff some times a life. If you're only losing poker 654 00:38:07,964 --> 00:38:10,804 Speaker 2: tournaments when you take a bad beat, it's often the 655 00:38:10,804 --> 00:38:13,964 Speaker 2: sign of people who are who are too nitty and 656 00:38:14,484 --> 00:38:17,684 Speaker 2: risk averse that you chip down, you chip down, chip down, 657 00:38:17,764 --> 00:38:20,244 Speaker 2: chip down right, because you're not taking any chances, and 658 00:38:20,244 --> 00:38:22,884 Speaker 2: then yeah, you'll lose it seventy thirty, or you lose 659 00:38:23,004 --> 00:38:25,284 Speaker 2: aces versus kings. Maybe if the kings against the aces 660 00:38:25,284 --> 00:38:27,484 Speaker 2: can't avoid that kind of thing, right, But like, you 661 00:38:27,524 --> 00:38:33,644 Speaker 2: know someone who is never busting out of a tournament 662 00:38:33,644 --> 00:38:37,164 Speaker 2: by saying, look, I made a big bluff here, it 663 00:38:37,164 --> 00:38:40,244 Speaker 2: didn't work. I made a big fold here, I got 664 00:38:40,244 --> 00:38:42,044 Speaker 2: shown the hand. It was wrong, and then I was 665 00:38:42,084 --> 00:38:44,324 Speaker 2: down low on chips. Right, I made a big call 666 00:38:44,404 --> 00:38:48,084 Speaker 2: and that was wrong. I tried to slow places. I 667 00:38:48,124 --> 00:38:49,204 Speaker 2: thought it was the right play, and you caught the 668 00:38:49,204 --> 00:38:50,964 Speaker 2: perfect card and I lost all my chip. Like, if 669 00:38:51,004 --> 00:38:54,644 Speaker 2: you're never like admitting to like making a bold poker play, 670 00:38:54,844 --> 00:38:58,764 Speaker 2: then then I kind of think you're probably an inferior player. 671 00:38:58,804 --> 00:39:01,044 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, yeah, what matters is all the decisions 672 00:39:01,044 --> 00:39:03,604 Speaker 1: that led up to that point not the actual bad 673 00:39:03,684 --> 00:39:06,964 Speaker 1: being at the end. I think that that's that's an 674 00:39:07,004 --> 00:39:10,324 Speaker 1: important thing to remember when you're a warding the Nobel 675 00:39:10,404 --> 00:39:14,444 Speaker 1: Prize in poker. Bad beat stories, Nobel Committee, these are 676 00:39:14,484 --> 00:39:17,804 Speaker 1: all things that we need to that we all need 677 00:39:17,844 --> 00:39:21,004 Speaker 1: to keep in mind. Nate, you will have created a 678 00:39:21,044 --> 00:39:25,124 Speaker 1: statistical model that tells us how to avoid the people 679 00:39:25,124 --> 00:39:28,164 Speaker 1: who will tell us the bad beat stories. You'll you'll 680 00:39:28,204 --> 00:39:32,684 Speaker 1: get us maps of the Paris and Horseshoe ballrooms so 681 00:39:32,724 --> 00:39:35,244 Speaker 1: that we know the best routes to take to avoid 682 00:39:35,324 --> 00:39:39,044 Speaker 1: bad beat storytellers. And I will incorporate them into my 683 00:39:39,164 --> 00:39:42,924 Speaker 1: novel and we will we will bring this to the 684 00:39:42,964 --> 00:39:46,764 Speaker 1: Nobel's attention. But that was a I really enjoyed that. 685 00:39:47,284 --> 00:39:49,164 Speaker 1: And next year I hope, Nate, that you will be 686 00:39:49,204 --> 00:39:53,684 Speaker 1: a little bit more engaged in the Nobel Prize given 687 00:39:53,764 --> 00:39:56,484 Speaker 1: now that you understand why some of them can be 688 00:39:56,524 --> 00:39:59,804 Speaker 1: so interesting to follow, and now that you know some 689 00:39:59,884 --> 00:40:01,164 Speaker 1: of the controversy behind. 690 00:40:00,964 --> 00:40:03,004 Speaker 2: The scenes, you can bet on it. 691 00:40:03,084 --> 00:40:05,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we can bet on it all right. Next 692 00:40:05,604 --> 00:40:07,164 Speaker 1: year we can do Nobel brackets. 693 00:40:07,684 --> 00:40:10,804 Speaker 2: Nobel brackets. Yeah, Okay, Maria will have to be one 694 00:40:10,924 --> 00:40:14,164 Speaker 2: another's Nobel Prize for now, So Thank you listeners, and 695 00:40:14,164 --> 00:40:14,804 Speaker 2: we'll see you soon. 696 00:40:20,484 --> 00:40:22,284 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 697 00:40:22,324 --> 00:40:26,084 Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm. 698 00:40:26,244 --> 00:40:29,324 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. 699 00:40:29,044 --> 00:40:31,804 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool 700 00:40:31,804 --> 00:40:35,764 Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 701 00:40:35,804 --> 00:40:40,124 Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, 702 00:40:40,244 --> 00:40:43,124 Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our 703 00:40:43,164 --> 00:40:47,004 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 704 00:40:47,524 --> 00:40:49,764 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 705 00:40:49,804 --> 00:40:52,444 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again, 706 00:40:52,604 --> 00:40:54,404 Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad 707 00:40:54,444 --> 00:40:56,604 Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.