1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA. All right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: here we go. 3 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 2: Right in the court ten seconds of an age, so 4 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 2: we just go show under the basket, Under the basket, 5 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 2: it's the truth for the wind, God, ambarracle, the water bit, 6 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: that one from the parking lot. 7 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 3: What's up the generination. Welcome the Big Nuts on Campus Podcast. 8 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 3: This is the weekend college basketball betting preview. I'm stuck 9 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 3: in joining me today and my fellow vio C co 10 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 3: host Jim Root and Greg Waddell. As always, end of 11 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 3: the show, we'll go rapid fire point on our favorite 12 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 3: spots of the weekend. We will add our final future 13 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 3: to our futures portfolio. Starting next week, we will be 14 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 3: diving in to conference tournaments. We will have you cover 15 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:04,960 Speaker 3: for all thirty one conference tournaments. I think probably over 16 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 3: the course of eight ish episodes, but we will have 17 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 3: you covered for every single one, so will be the 18 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 3: focus and then obviously going into the NCAA tournament, we'll 19 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 3: talk futures throughout, but this will be the final official ad. 20 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 3: We'll get to a quick ran er takeaway from the 21 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 3: week that was in just a moment, talk about a 22 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 3: team we're buying or selling and gentlemen, we only have 23 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 3: three more days. Anyone who's listening to this, it's two 24 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 3: more days left in March. We are almost there. I'm 25 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 3: getting excited. I know you guys are getting excited. Jim, 26 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: I'll go to you for the week. There was what's 27 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 3: on your. 28 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: Mind outside of Houston blowing it at home against Arizona, 29 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: which is frustrating for both futures and in game betting purposes. 30 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: I've got a bone to pick with. I feel like 31 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: there are people that are not college basketball fans that 32 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: are parachuting in and are like, what kind of sport 33 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 1: is going to keep Miami Ohio out of the tournament 34 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: if they go thirty one to oh And I just 35 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,239 Speaker 1: need to tell them they're probably not listening to this podcast, 36 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: but that's not happening. Like, there's no way they don't 37 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: get in at large. If they go thirty one to 38 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: oh in the regular season, they could lose in the 39 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament by twenty and they would 40 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: still make it. Their wab would still be their wins 41 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 1: above bubble would still be plenty good enough to make it. 42 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: It's way good enough to make it. Right now, they've 43 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: probably got a two loss lee way. If they go undefeated, 44 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: there in no question about it. I don't know why 45 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: that's popping up. It's driving me nuts. So like the 46 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: people that are propagating that, just just slap them. That's 47 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: what That's what I'm encouraging. 48 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 3: People are like, so they're pre mad. It's like they're like, okay, 49 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 3: I can understand, like being upset if Mana Vihiow doesn't 50 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: make it. If they go undefeated, I think the chances 51 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 3: are slim, but at least wait until it happens, like 52 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,679 Speaker 3: you're getting mad. Now nothing's happened yet. They could also 53 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 3: win the Max like this is, this is There's too 54 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 3: many other things in the college bass world and just 55 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 3: world in general to get upset about this hypothetical three 56 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 3: weeks from now. Uh So, yeah, the maavahile the MAC. 57 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,679 Speaker 3: I love the MAC, but it is one of the 58 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 3: most unfair I don't know if that's the right word, 59 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 3: but it it's one of the most unfair setups for 60 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 3: top seeds. You know, we'll be talking some conference sernaments 61 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 3: where you have the top you know, two seeds get 62 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 3: quadruple buys into the semis. I mean, you go look 63 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 3: at the what the the Sun Belt, you you have 64 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: to win if you're you have Some teams have to 65 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 3: win six games in six days, but the MAC is 66 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: just eight teams, make it regular looking bracket, which can 67 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 3: lead to some chaos. But I would tend to agree 68 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 3: with you speaking of that. By the way, the Sun 69 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 3: Belt Texas State Apps State tomorrow night, Friday Night, Huge 70 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 3: game in Texas State. I think it has been ridiculous at 71 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 3: home this year. But like the winner of that game, 72 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 3: most likely based on the other results, that game is 73 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 3: basically worth two games next week in the in the 74 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 3: Sun Belt Conference tournament. Like app State goes from you know, 75 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 3: going to basically the SEMIS to dropping two games back, 76 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 3: Texas State would drop two games back or move up 77 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 3: two games. Huge game as far as both of those 78 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 3: teams chances to make the NCAA tournament. Greg got got 79 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 3: some Big Ten thoughts of the week, made some major 80 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 3: big bad week for the Big ten as far as 81 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 3: Indiana going down and Ohio State as well. 82 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, the Big ten bubble is in a dangerous spot 83 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 4: right now. But I'm mad at myself. Hand up accountability 84 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 4: hour here. I broke my number one Bible of betting 85 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 4: rule that I followed for four years. Never trust a 86 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 4: Jake Deebler team when they need to win. 87 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 3: A big game. I broke that. 88 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 4: I bet Ohio State money line against Iowa, and I 89 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 4: just thought they were going to keep alternating wins and losses. 90 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 4: I thought Mobley and Royal back was going to lead 91 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 4: to just a boost of energy. I thought Bruce Thornton 92 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,239 Speaker 4: was so spectacular at the Breslan Center that that would 93 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 4: carry over against Bennett Starts, and it just didn't. They 94 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 4: jumped out to a fourteen to two lead. I'm riding hot. 95 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: I'm like, I did it. I nailed this, and then 96 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 4: I think they got out scored like thirty two to 97 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 4: two over the next fourteen minutes. This is such a 98 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 4: lifeless program. And to the people out there that I 99 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 4: get it. Bruce Thornton's good. Evan me has had him 100 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 4: as his third best player in the country for three 101 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 4: years and Evan's my guy. 102 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 3: I love Evan. 103 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 4: But like there's people out there that are in good heart, 104 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 4: good conscience tweeting, Oh, we need to see Bruce Thornton 105 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 4: in the tournament. 106 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:10,679 Speaker 3: No we don't. 107 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 4: Bruce Thornton didn't score in this entire first half while 108 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 4: his team was getting dog walked. He is a loser 109 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 4: and it is the story of his career. And yes, 110 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 4: he hasn't had the right things around him, and he 111 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 4: can put stats up, but I'm mad at myself for 112 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 4: falling for it, and I'm looking forward to trying to 113 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 4: jump back in and fading this Buckeye team down the stretch. 114 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, I like Thornton. He did. They 115 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 3: did get Mobiley back, but I think they lost Tilly 116 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:42,159 Speaker 3: now they've had some injuries in their front court. It 117 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 3: just seems like he has to do so much for 118 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 3: that team to win that. I mean, the amount that's 119 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 3: on his shoulders, and there's only so much that he 120 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 3: can do to get them over the homp Indiana, I mean, 121 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:02,559 Speaker 3: that's lucky. That's an almost an inexcusable loss at home 122 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 3: to Northwestern. I get there was an awful call at 123 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 3: the end that should have been a foul down three, 124 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 3: But you know, you lose to Illinois and Purdue you have, 125 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: which is fine. You know they're in a different class 126 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 3: than Indiana both around the road as well, but you 127 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 3: have to then get the job done at home. Now. 128 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 3: I mean this game against Michigan State on Sunday, becomes 129 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 3: massive for the Hoosiers. I I don't mind. I I 130 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: will look at Indiana. They're a different team at home, 131 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 3: they can shoot the three. Michigan stable will give you threes. 132 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 3: But Indiana almost profiles like Minnesota. If you look like 133 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 3: Minnesota gives up a zero percent transition frequency that it's 134 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 3: impossible to get out in transition against them. Indiana is 135 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 3: like in the second percentile, and both are like fab 136 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 3: if you look at their defensive profiles and like synergy, 137 00:07:55,960 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 3: they're like exactly the same and Minnesota just based We 138 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: kept Michigan State out of transition at home and then 139 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 3: that's how they won the game. I think Indiana to 140 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 3: do something separate, something similar. I do worry about the glass, 141 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 3: like they could just get annihilated on the boards on 142 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 3: both ends, which does worry me. But I'll look at 143 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 3: Indiana on on Sunday for sure. My takeaway from the week, 144 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 3: I was gonna just bitch about yesterday I had, but this. 145 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 3: I just want to use this as a reminder in March, 146 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 3: just a lot of new people betting college basketball. When 147 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 3: you boil it down to like one one day, a 148 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 3: lot of what we're betting on is three point variants 149 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 3: and you just have to sometimes you just have to 150 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 3: swallow it. Also appreciate when it goes your way. But 151 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 3: like on a one day sample, that's basically what we're 152 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,959 Speaker 3: betting on. I mean, last yesterday I had who did 153 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 3: I feel I faded? Georgia, Florida and Morgan State. Who shot? 154 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 3: These teams are like two fortieth, three thirtieth, two ninetieth 155 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 3: in the country in three point percentage they were. They 156 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 3: shot seventy eight percent from three in the second half 157 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 3: of their three games. Morgan State was twelve of twenty 158 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 3: from three. A horrible shooting team. Now I shouldn't have 159 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 3: bet that. I did not. I was not aware that uh, 160 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 3: South Kina State at three three starters out, But that's 161 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 3: what happens when you bet the Miact. But I just 162 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 3: want to use that as a reminder, like you're gonna 163 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 3: have days where your teams just don't make threes the 164 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 3: other teams do. So for new betters, don't chase late, 165 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,719 Speaker 3: just say Okay, it happens and move on. But I 166 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 3: do want to talk about the state of Mississippi. The 167 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 3: Mississippi basketball is in the dumps. I mean, has it 168 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 3: ever been worse like oh Miss, oh Miss and Miss State. 169 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 3: People we forget they started. Both of them started in 170 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: the top thirty in Kempong preseason and both have been 171 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 3: a disaster. I mean, Mississippi State just gave up but 172 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 3: sixteen threes to a file in less Alabama in the 173 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 3: first half twenty two for the game Ole Miss, which 174 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 3: has been I a mess the entire year since. Like 175 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 3: early season press conferences, you can tell Beard hates this team. 176 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 3: They've lost ten straight. Uh, Southern Miss, Mississippi Valley State. 177 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 3: I think Jackson State has been a little disappointment at 178 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 3: who else is in the Mississippi Alcorn State. I mean this, 179 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 3: if you're just a fan, like someone, there's someone out 180 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 3: there that's just like, I'm a huge Mississippi guy. I'm 181 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 3: a fan of all the Mississippi basketball schools. Man, what 182 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 3: a law what a brutal season. So yeah, shout up 183 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 3: to anyone that follows any of the Mississipi schools, if 184 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 3: you're following multiple It's been a very very long season. 185 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 3: I don't even know the most the most the team 186 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 3: with the best chance to get into the Dance is probably, 187 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 3: I don't know, Jackson State. You want to you want 188 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 3: to you want to watch Jackson State Dayshawn Ruffin will 189 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 3: take h every other shot. So if he can go 190 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 3: for like thirty five uh a couple of games, they 191 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: could they could win the swhack. But talk about it. 192 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 3: I mean he might have like the highest usage in 193 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 3: the country, an old Miss and a former old Miss guy. 194 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 3: But Jackson Sat really misses. They're big from last year. 195 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 3: I mean, it's basically just roughen. They don't have a 196 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 3: Shannon Grant this year. 197 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,439 Speaker 1: But the most exciting thing, the most exciting thing that 198 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: happened in Mississippi basketball this week was the Delta Devils 199 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: getting their first Division One win, a near buzzer beater 200 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: for Mississipi Valley State at home. Also, if nobody, if 201 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: you don't follow the loosely associated Mississippi Valley State Twitter 202 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: account basketball on Twitter, it's not an official account, so 203 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: they get to be kind of loose with it on there. 204 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: It is hilarious and I think they had like a 205 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: we finally did it post and they're like final score 206 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: posts are always hilarious. It's it's a gem of an account. 207 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: That's like the best thing that Missippi basketball has going 208 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: right now. 209 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, they have they posted. I think it was said 210 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 3: like Texas Southern seventy one, Mississippi Valley State more than 211 00:11:54,800 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 3: that one. But yeah, I mean, shout out the Delta Devils, 212 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 3: the one team in missip Mississippi that has not failed 213 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:11,319 Speaker 3: to live up to expectations on kempom three hundred and 214 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 3: sixty fifth in the country day one, there's still three 215 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,079 Speaker 3: hundred and sixty fIF They've been three hundred and sixty 216 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 3: fifth every single day of the year. They have not budged. 217 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 3: They were expected to be dead last, and they finished 218 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 3: the last. Well, I mean, you can't really underperform that. 219 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: But so yeah, Rough, I'm very curious that I'm specifically 220 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 3: curious to see what happens with Beard an Ole miss 221 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 3: and how he constructs this roster next year. This thing 222 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 3: was doomed from the start. I mean those depressors early 223 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 3: on with aj Store and like talking about the effort level. 224 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 3: This is this is just a bad team. 225 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: First losing season in sixteen years of head coaching, crazy 226 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: wild ye. 227 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 3: All right, let's get to let's do a quick bilo 228 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 3: saw them. We'll get the futures. Jim greg I'll throw 229 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 3: to you, who what's the team you're buying lower selling 230 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 3: high on I. 231 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 4: Think I beat Jim to the punch here based on 232 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 4: the notes. But apology root, I'm going, oh, dare you? 233 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 4: I'm going with the Clemson Tigers. Four straight losses doom 234 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 4: and gloom. Of course, they've got a big one against 235 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 4: Louisville this weekend that I have thoughts on when we 236 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 4: get the best bets. But I was looking into this, 237 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 4: trying to dig into what's going wrong. I've watched a 238 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 4: good chunk of all these games. It's just been a 239 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 4: ton of crazy shooting splits like this is a good 240 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 4: Clemson shooting team. Over the full course of the season. 241 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 4: Before this four game losing stretch, they were one hundred 242 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 4: and thirty first nationally thirty five percent from three, not bad. 243 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 4: Last four games, they're shooting twenty nine percent from three. 244 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 4: They can't make anything. And then you look at the 245 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 4: flip side of this. Defensively, every team they've played is 246 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 4: shooting the lights out. In this four game sample size, 247 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 4: teams are shooting forty three percent from three against Clemson. 248 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 4: Go back to that Virginia Tech game where they lost 249 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 4: at home, they shot fifty two percent from three in 250 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 4: eleven threes. It's like every non duke team they've played 251 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 4: in two weeks. 252 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 3: Just cannot miss. 253 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 4: And that's not normal because the rest of the season 254 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,680 Speaker 4: they're twelveth nationally and three point percentage defense and I 255 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 4: get that percentage. Three point shooting defense is obviously a 256 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 4: hit or miss thing, but they kind of have a 257 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 4: Michigan State element to them, where you go back through 258 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 4: the last seven years of Brown l they kind of 259 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 4: profile the same. They have a good three point percentage defense, 260 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 4: even though they give up a decent amount of volume. 261 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 4: I just think they're due for some positive regression on 262 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 4: both ends here. I think this is a legitimately good 263 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 4: team in Tier two of the ACC that has had 264 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 4: some pretty horrible ball going through the hoop luck in 265 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 4: the last two weeks, and it's a great bilo opportunity 266 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 4: for them to get right, quite frankly, against a Pat 267 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 4: Kelsey program that doesn't ever pick up quad one wins. 268 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 3: Yeah the I mean, yeah, Clemson, they're in their four 269 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 3: gyme winch. He's running out a negative thirteen and a 270 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 3: half percent three point delta. Like, as you mentioned, shooting 271 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 3: twenty nine percent, opponents are shooting forty three percent. I 272 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 3: think that has a lot to do with the story 273 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 3: full week off here too, after that losing streak to 274 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 3: kind of regrow prep for this game against Louisville, who 275 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 3: had a midweek game against North Carolina, a really poor effort, 276 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 3: and that's the story. Like I'm gonna kind of pile 277 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 3: on you. I mean, the team I'm selling is Louisville 278 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 3: and maybe I mean I think I'm gonna bet Clemson 279 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 3: this weekend. And you mentioned Louisvill's one and eleven in 280 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 3: Quad one A games under Kelsey. They're let's see, they're 281 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 3: minus one forty three in point differential in those games, 282 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 3: minus twelve there, those are boy twelve points per game 283 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 3: on average. Their defense does not travel, and they're not 284 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 3: getting enough in the interior. MIKEL. Brown is electric. They can't. 285 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 3: I mean, look, they're a high variance team, so you 286 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 3: know they could play with anyone on any given night, 287 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 3: but away from home, that defense, the interier, it's just 288 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 3: not good enough. And we talk about this month, we 289 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 3: talk about the Clemson three point differential. Louisville's three and 290 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 3: two over the past five games, they're shooting four twenty 291 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 3: five percent from three. Teams are shooting twenty five percent 292 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: against them. They're running it a plus twenty percent nearly 293 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 3: plus twenty percent delta thrown the three point line, and 294 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 3: they're only three and two. I just from an upside perspective, 295 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 3: I don't think that they have the defense and the 296 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 3: chops inside away from home to make a deep run here, 297 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 3: even though I was thinking like this is an intriguing 298 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 3: team because of the variants, because of the three point shooting, 299 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 3: kind of off on the level. Do jim any thoughts there? 300 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, as Greg mentioned, I was gonna, I 301 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: did like all the Clemson research had basically the same 302 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: numbers as him, and I went into the notes and 303 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: was he already had Clemson waiting there. I was like, 304 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: damn it, I gotta go back and do a little 305 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 1: more work. But totally agree there. They're a by Low 306 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: and Louisville. You mentioned the shooting splits. They just they 307 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: also just look like a dead fish sometimes in big games, 308 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: like yes, they got everything to go in in the 309 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: big game where they beat NC State by forty, but 310 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: most games, I feel like they're just trying to manufacture 311 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: a tough three point look. They don't get quality looks 312 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: the way somebody like Alabama does it. Can be a 313 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: labor for them to get a three up, not as 314 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,440 Speaker 1: many transition threes as you hope, and like you mentioned, 315 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: they don't have much threat of any of their guards 316 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: driving to the rim. Michel Brown will occasionally get like 317 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: a highlight reel dunk, but he's not a get all 318 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: the way to the rim guy. Conwell certainly isn't. McNeely 319 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: won't even look at the rim unless he's firing a three. 320 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I'm definitely in. I'm fading them as well. 321 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: And then my cell high is Eastern Washington. Kind of 322 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: the theme of the pod here is recent shooting splits. 323 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: They've covered seven straight games, so obviously this seems like 324 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,919 Speaker 1: a pretty high point for them, and it's pretty well 325 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,199 Speaker 1: driven by shooting as well. In that shoot in that 326 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: seven game stretch, they're shooting forty one point seven percent 327 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: from three, thirteenth best nationally, and opponents are shooting sub 328 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: twenty seven percent, number eight nationally. For their defense, they're 329 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: basically even on the glass over that time. They have 330 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 1: a negative turnover margin, so their shot volume isn't very good, 331 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: and they're still somehow covering game after game after game. 332 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: It's pretty much all three point shooting and they played 333 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: a night as we were call on Thursday night against 334 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 1: Northern Colorado. So like, I think that might be the 335 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: start of the fade train, even though they've got revenge 336 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 1: on the mind since they lost in Northern Colorado already, 337 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: but their last two games of the year Northern Arizona 338 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 1: and Idaho, I will be on the opponent for sure. 339 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, two of the hottest they've played tonight, so well, 340 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 3: when you're listening, you'll know already know the results to the 341 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 3: hottest teams in the Big Sky. A really important game. 342 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 3: I wanted that Northern Colorado to win. Starts madness. This 343 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 3: is a team that I thought coming into the season 344 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 3: was one of the favorites, and they started off so bad. 345 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 3: I mean, they were just losing a ton of close games. 346 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 3: They're red hot now. I love Quinn Banker Brock Whisney 347 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 3: have a great two man game. But important game tonight 348 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 3: because you the loser of that game is in danger 349 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 3: of missing a bye, losing a bye. Based on how 350 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 3: the standings will shake out, the winner will be in 351 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 3: much better shape, especially Northern Colorado because they but they'll 352 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 3: have the tiebreakover. You used to watch if they win. 353 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 3: But yeah, Eastern Washington definitely running very well from three 354 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,719 Speaker 3: of the league. All right, let's let's go to our 355 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 3: future's portfolio. Let me pull up. It's gonna be our 356 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 3: final future. All right, So so far we have Saint 357 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 3: Louis final four eighty to one. Got a good number there, 358 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:24,719 Speaker 3: Purdue final four six to one. It's okay, we beat it. 359 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 3: I think it gets like plus five fifty consensus. Now, 360 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 3: Virginia final four twenty to one. Good number there, Illinois 361 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 3: National champion fifteen to one, good number there, and then 362 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 3: SEC National title winner eleven to one. Greg Final, Greg, 363 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 3: just anything to say to Jim. Jim misses the past 364 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 3: two episodes and both of his picks get nominated. You're 365 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 3: definitely in a big underdog today to get picked. With 366 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 3: Jim back in the mix, they're. 367 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 4: Saying up four to one today, Stock, I don't know 368 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 4: what we do with that, but. 369 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 1: Well, what's your paper tiger factor? What's your paper tiger factor? 370 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: I've been playing against Matt and. 371 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 3: Kai speaking of I mean, yeah, Matt. What was Matt's 372 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 3: was Michigan to win the Big ten like minus. 373 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 4: Seven hundreds, So just an auto no from both of. 374 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 3: Us, Jim does have a favorite to win a conference. 375 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 3: You like, who do you like here, Jim? 376 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: I like Yukon to win the Big East minus one twenty. 377 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: I know that isn't overly appealing, but you don't have 378 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: to tie your money up for very long. It's basically 379 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: like a little over a week, so that helps. They've 380 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 1: only got two games left and Saint John's, who they're 381 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: tied with, has three games left. They split the head 382 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 1: to head, so a lot of it could come down 383 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 1: to the tie break, and interestingly, a lot of it 384 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: could come down to Providence first three. If Providence wins 385 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 1: at Creighton, that's huge for Yukon. They would pretty much 386 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 1: be in good shape for the tie break. You've also 387 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 1: got a chance Creighton loses at Butler, so that that helps. 388 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: But also you've got a much tougher schedule for Saint John's. 389 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: They've got to play Villanova, they've got to play Georgetown, whatever. 390 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 1: But then they got to go to Seaton Hall on 391 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 1: the final night of the of the season, and you 392 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 1: know that's going to be John Fanta on the call 393 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: at dis Alma Mater at the Rock Friday night. Pirate 394 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,119 Speaker 1: fans are going to be toasty. They're going to be 395 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: having a nice dal already, so you've got that out. 396 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: I think Yukon takes care of business versus Seaton Hall 397 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 1: at Marquette. Not a bad two game schedule, And just 398 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: just looking at the numbers, CBB Analytics projects it at 399 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: sixty seven point eight percent. The Yukon gets to one seed, 400 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: that's like minus two ten true price, So minus one 401 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,479 Speaker 1: twenty implies only a fifty five percent chance south of that. 402 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,959 Speaker 1: So I think it's much higher than what this price indicates. 403 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 1: And because it's a short term thing, I'm willing to 404 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: lay it with the favorite. I really like that price. 405 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple weeks ago, I told you guys, I 406 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 3: like Saint John's like plus three fifty doing the Big 407 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 3: East was hoping that, you know, Yukon, there's obviously a 408 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 3: chance that they swept. They did not. Saint John's missed 409 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 3: what their finals? What do they missed their finals? 410 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: Like twenty four twenty four shots. 411 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 3: Unbelievable, Maybe five they made five twos all game or something, 412 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 3: six twos, it's done. I was hoping that they either 413 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 3: you know, they could have swept, or that Yukon tripped 414 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 3: up at Nova. But yeah, I'm playing back on this. 415 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 3: I I like this price because, as you said, harder 416 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 3: skeed like Connecticut, Yukon hosts Seaton Hall, Saint John's has 417 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 3: to go to Seaton Hall. They have two games left, 418 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 3: you uh, and Saint John's has three, a tougher road. 419 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 3: And then the way that you mentioned the Providence, the 420 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 3: Providence Creating game matters a lot because if these two 421 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 3: teams finished tied, the way that the tiebreaker works is 422 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 3: you go just go down the line. So you know, 423 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 3: if they both went out, they both are gonna have 424 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 3: two losses. You go to Villanova, you know they both 425 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 3: would have swept, and you go down to you know, 426 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 3: Seaton Hall that would have swept, and then you go 427 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 3: down to Create Like where does Creton in Providence? Because 428 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 3: Yukon lost the Creighton, Saint John's would have swept them, 429 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 3: but Saint John's lost the Providence. Where do they fall 430 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 3: in the standings right now? Creating is it's two more 431 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 3: wins than Providence, but they played one fewer game. They 432 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 3: play each other this Saturday. That's huge. Now there's a 433 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 3: chance that they finished tied in the standings as well, 434 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 3: and if that happens, it comes down the net in 435 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 3: which Canneticut surely would get the one seed as well, 436 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 3: so you have that working for you as well. So yeah, 437 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 3: don't mind that at all. Greg, What do you got? 438 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 3: All right? 439 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 4: So full disclosure on strategy here. I was looking at 440 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 4: everything we have and I feel like we're pretty well covered. 441 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 4: And had I felt worse about the full portfolio, I 442 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 4: think I would have given pretty chalky option this week, 443 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 4: just take one of the favorites to win it all 444 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 4: and boots that up. But I think we're in a 445 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 4: good spot, so I want to go long shot here. 446 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 4: I'm throwing at UCLA Final four eighty to one. I 447 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 4: was looking through everything in this price range and this 448 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 4: just stood out as a little bit of a mispriced 449 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 4: Jim was mentioning before we record on the show, apparently 450 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 4: a couple days ago. In one of the discords, there 451 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 4: was some conversation about this and they were one hundred 452 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,719 Speaker 4: and twenty five to one. This is still pretty good 453 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 4: at eighty to one to me. I mean, you see 454 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 4: Indiana sixty to one vcu UCF all worse prices than 455 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 4: UCLA here, the same price as in Ohio State team 456 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 4: that I don't think is going to. 457 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:22,360 Speaker 3: Be in the tournament. 458 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 4: When we fast forward two weeks, this team is firmly 459 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 4: in the tournament. They've got one of the best guards 460 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 4: in the country if you're a bet guards winning March subscriber, 461 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,639 Speaker 4: Donovan Dent at his current form, can certainly win a 462 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 4: few games. They've got a head coach who's done it before, 463 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 4: who took an eleven seed to a Final four in 464 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 4: the last decade. And I don't know that this is 465 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 4: the year that's going to happen, but I do know 466 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 4: that we've seen UCLA against Illinois down twenty three, stare 467 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 4: them in the face and find answers and come back. 468 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 3: I do know that they have a. 469 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 4: Really good win against Perdue, who's probably going to end 470 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 4: up on the two line. We've seen them go up 471 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 4: against the best of the best in the Big ten 472 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 4: outside of the state of Michigan and then really hold 473 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 4: their own. And it would be a great boost if 474 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 4: we do get this team a West Coast trip in 475 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 4: the tournament somehow, But even without eighty to one, I 476 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 4: think it's a pretty great price. 477 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, Can they start in San Diego or where the 478 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 3: committee get some chuckles and send them the buffalo, right away. 479 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 3: They are such a different team at home. That's my 480 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 3: only worry. But you know, getting healthier now and guard play, 481 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 3: they have a style. I can see them definitely make 482 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 3: a run. Gim any thoughts on the Bruins. 483 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it too. Greg didn't mention too they 484 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: went toe to toe with Arizona before we truly knew 485 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,679 Speaker 1: what Arizona was, and that was in LA but not 486 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 1: at home. But as you mentioned, Stucky, they've won one 487 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,160 Speaker 1: game outside of the Pacific time zone. It was at 488 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: Penn State. They're one in five at ats outside of 489 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 1: the Pacific time zone, so where they end up matters 490 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: a lot. But this is eighty to one, and the 491 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: way they're wins a bubble now has gotten too after 492 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: this last week, Like they're kind of comfortably in like 493 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: their mid thirties in that they're not like at risk 494 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: of suddenly dropping out. They're probably not headed to Dayton. 495 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: So yeah, I like the price. 496 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, Like if they're going to force you on defense, 497 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 3: like they're gonna grind the game down, they're gonna force 498 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 3: you to make outside shots and with me threes and 499 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,439 Speaker 3: if the three point variance works their way, you know 500 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 3: it's gonna be in general. Maybe lower scoring games with 501 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 3: UCLA works in their favorite they're trying to pull off 502 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 3: an upset. I'm gonna go. I looked at the board. 503 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 3: There's nothing that I like, nothing that I loved, except 504 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 3: for what I played last week and brought to the table. 505 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 3: So I'm bringing it back Bandy twenty to one to 506 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 3: go to the final four. I talked about this last week, 507 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 3: so I won't go too in depth, but you know, 508 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 3: they're basically inside the top twenty and offensive and defensive efficiency. 509 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 3: They have a great coach, they have a you know, 510 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 3: a first round draft pick. They are one of the 511 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 3: most experienced teams in the country. They're now healthier, they 512 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 3: just got Duke Miles back. They check every single box 513 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 3: for a team that should make a deep run, especially 514 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 3: leve Byington in a tournament setting. So yeah, I think 515 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 3: this team fits the mold. Twenty to one I think 516 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 3: is a good price. So I'm going to bring Vandy 517 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 3: Final four twenty to one to the table. So we 518 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:30,239 Speaker 3: got one hold up A one four Yukon to win 519 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 3: the Big East, two UCLA Final four, and three Vandy 520 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 3: Final four three two one. Wow, first one of the year. 521 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 3: Let's go. So for those listening, I voted for Jim, 522 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 3: Jim voter for Greg and Greg voter for Jim, so 523 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 3: normally I would split the tie. Jim, your vote. 524 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: Means the world to me. I just want you to 525 00:27:58,880 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: know that. 526 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 3: That's But David, based on their arguments, do you want 527 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,679 Speaker 3: to break this tide? Did anyone convince you more than 528 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 3: anyone else? All right, producer says, because I brought Vandy 529 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 3: twice in a row, he's voting with me, just basically 530 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 3: trying to get on my good side, So we'll go 531 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 3: with Vandy. But I like both your guys looks, so 532 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 3: if you're looking to add some more, I think both 533 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 3: of those are good bets. Jim, do you have any 534 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 3: thoughts on Vandy since you weren't here though last week? 535 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, if they've kind of got the interior defense figured out, 536 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 1: I mean, it's not like catastrophic. They've had a couple 537 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: of games where it was really, really bad, but they've 538 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 1: straightened it out. Like in league play, they're only fifth 539 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 1: in two point percentage defense. That's really good. It's been 540 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 1: a weird SEC where it's the second most efficient conference 541 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: in the entire country and it's not that physical This 542 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 1: year and I'm wondering how those teams are going to 543 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 1: look in the tournament when they get outside of that setting. 544 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 1: But Vandy looked awesome in the non conference. Their ball 545 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: pressure like sent Saint Mary's to hell. So I think 546 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,719 Speaker 1: it could be fun, especially with Miles back, You've got 547 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 1: a little bit more depth in the backcourt. Yep. 548 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, My big my concern like as far as if 549 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 3: they what one they run into is you know, they 550 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 3: lost to Florida, and mean, obviously they torched Florida, but 551 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 3: they they couldn't stop Florida. Florida is like the one 552 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 3: team with an elite uh front court in the SEC, 553 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 3: like a super elite front court. So if they run 554 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 3: into one of those, does there because you don't really 555 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 3: face a ton in the SEC, is that where their 556 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 3: INTI your defense gets exposed. But they can get to 557 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 3: the final four without having to worry about that. And 558 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 3: if they get hot from three forcing off turnovers, they 559 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 3: can cause anyone some issues, all right. So that's our 560 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 3: final future and our futures portfolio. It is Bandy Final four, 561 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 3: Saint Louis Final four, Purdue Final four, Virginia Final four, 562 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 3: Illinois Natty SEC Natty let's let's get let's get two, 563 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,960 Speaker 3: but let's definitely at least get one before we get 564 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 3: to our weekend books. Here's your weekly reminder to sign 565 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 3: up for Action Pro Pro. Users get real time, immediate 566 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 3: notifications when any of our action experts track or pick, 567 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 3: whether that's Chris Raybonchron Kerner, myself, or any of our experts, 568 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 3: if you want to get that notification before lines start 569 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 3: to move. Especially important once our main prop guys start 570 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 3: posting props in the tournament, shout out Nick Giffon and 571 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 3: Sean Carner. Those will move right away and they do 572 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 3: a tremendous job. And right now you can get twenty 573 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 3: dollars off the year of Action Pro with Promo Code 574 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 3: Pod twenty. Just go to actionework dot com slash Pro 575 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 3: to get started again. That's Action network dot Com slash 576 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 3: Pro Promo Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off an 577 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 3: annual subscription again Action Network dot Com slash Pro. All right, 578 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 3: let's get to the weekend before we dive in. Gentlemen, Greg, 579 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 3: you do have a look on this Illinois, Michigan, one 580 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 3: of the games of the weekend on Friday night. You 581 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,160 Speaker 3: are looking at the total I am. 582 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 4: I'm expecting points and this might be a little heart 583 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 4: strings because I'll be in the building for this. There's 584 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 4: a non zero chance I'm gettinger with Morez, Johnson's senior 585 00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 4: before this game. That's another story. But I don't think 586 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 4: either of these teams can guard each other. I think 587 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 4: back to last season when Brad Underwood had Dusty May's 588 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 4: defense in Hell and hung sixty one points on Michigan 589 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 4: in the second half alone. They scored I think, on 590 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 4: fifteen straight possessions down the stretch of that game. And 591 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 4: I think this offense is even better. I think it's 592 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 4: the best I've ever seen from a Brad Underwood teams, 593 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 4: the best Ken Pum has ever seen in twenty five years. 594 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 4: I don't know what Mara does in this game. I 595 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 4: know that Dusty May has mixed up coverages. I don't 596 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 4: know that any of them will help him on the 597 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 4: perimeter against Illinois's five out find the mismatch system. And 598 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 4: I worry about Morez honestly, with such a big moment 599 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 4: in front of a ferocious crowd, But I think Michigan 600 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 4: will be able to score as well. I think you've 601 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 4: seen this Illinois defense sort of melt down against much 602 00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 4: worse offenses than Illinois or than Michigan. You know, yack 603 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 4: Ccellneborg is a problem for their wings. I think putting 604 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,000 Speaker 4: the visages in ball screens repeatedly is probably a good formula. 605 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 4: So yeah, Ken Pom has this at one sixty one. 606 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 4: It opened at one fifty six and a half. I 607 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,760 Speaker 4: jumped on it immediately. I just think this is going 608 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 4: to be a highly entertaining, high scoring game. 609 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna be on Illinois. They what are 610 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 3: their small home dog. They catch a one one and 611 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,800 Speaker 3: a half. I think they are closed on one point 612 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,800 Speaker 3: favorite one one and that point favorites could be wrong, 613 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 3: but Michigan's pick and roll defense is vulnerable. While they 614 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 3: could take advantage and then they have the big picking 615 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 3: pop the bigs to shoot. We saw Wisconsin take advantage there. 616 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 3: You can actually get on the offensive glass against Michigan 617 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 3: two a bit because of their aggressive this Illinois one 618 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 3: of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Their 619 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 3: offense is electric at home and look, Michigan been has 620 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 3: been great. And if you look like since they started 621 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 3: making threes and they've been there running at a plus 622 00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 3: ten percent Delta in that department for about a month, 623 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 3: and you know, outside of Duke, they've been dominant. But 624 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,719 Speaker 3: you know, if you look over the past two months, 625 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 3: these are two top five teams. The difference is Illinois 626 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 3: has been extremely unlucky. They They've lost four games over 627 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 3: the past three months. They're one at the buzzard in 628 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 3: Nebraska and three in overtime that all basically required buzzer beaters. 629 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 3: So yeah, I think there's some paths here for Illinois 630 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 3: to school. I mean, Michigan's gonna score. I don't disagree 631 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 3: with you because the Illinois defense does have issues, and 632 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 3: they have issues in transition as well, which does scare 633 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 3: me a bit. But at home, I think the line 634 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 3: of might get it done in the close one. Jim, 635 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 3: you have any thoughts on that game one way or 636 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 3: the other. 637 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely agree with points. I mean Woggler, like, 638 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: if you switch a big on him, his eyes just 639 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 1: light up. And I don't know if Michigan's gonna try 640 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: to play deep drop, but I think he'd be quite 641 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 1: alright with that too. But if he gets Johnson or 642 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 1: Mara in a switch, I think he's just gonna have 643 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 1: a great time with that half, a little step back 644 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 1: and score there, and then Michigan's onslot inside. Illinois big, 645 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,279 Speaker 1: but they're not necessarily like the most physical all the time, 646 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: so I think Michigan can kind of get to them there. Yeah, 647 00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 1: I like the points the over meaning that, but side 648 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: I'm torn. I think the Illinois side makes sense, but 649 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,239 Speaker 1: I won't be betting it. 650 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 3: But I'll kick things off. I think I'm gonna be 651 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,520 Speaker 3: on Iowa State here. I don't know what number we're 652 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,879 Speaker 3: gonna get, but I would stayed at home against Texas Tech. 653 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 3: Texas Tech, you have to give a m chaslon credit. 654 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 3: They said they didn't sleep, they were, you know, looking 655 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 3: at film after they lost top in and they you know, 656 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 3: they got it done. Two games at home, they got 657 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 3: they played a bad Kansas State team, they got sensing 658 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 3: a great spot, and they've hit you know, forty five 659 00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 3: percent of their threes over those two games. I do 660 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 3: not think this team's going to continue to shoot forty 661 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 3: to forty five percent from three. They've done it for 662 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 3: most of the year, they've done in the two games 663 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,319 Speaker 3: since top but look at the competition. I don't think 664 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 3: that they're going to be able to keep that up 665 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,799 Speaker 3: because how many wide open shots do they get Because 666 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 3: of the attention that Top and draws, uh, it's going 667 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,040 Speaker 3: to be so much easier to defend them. I think 668 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,240 Speaker 3: this is the game where they're going to miss him 669 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 3: immensely and his passing ability to find those open shooters 670 00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:16,360 Speaker 3: against Iowa State. Additionally, Iowa State, it's one of the 671 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 3: things they struggle with in league players. They'll they'll turn 672 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,879 Speaker 3: it over a bunch of Texas Tech forces no turnovers whatsoever, 673 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,759 Speaker 3: and this Iowa State team at home, it's just a 674 00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:30,280 Speaker 3: different animal on offense. So I think this is really 675 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,439 Speaker 3: really where they missed Top and I think I would 676 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 3: State blows the doors off Tech. I would love to get. 677 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 3: Do you think we could get single digits? 678 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 1: I'm going to guess no. I wanted to say, like 679 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 1: the Cincinnati game was eleven at Ken Palm and six 680 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 1: and a half in the market, so that kind of 681 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 1: implying Top and worth four and a half points in 682 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,320 Speaker 1: this game might be even worth more. 683 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 4: I think. 684 00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 3: More so, especially in this matchup. 685 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, seven at Ken Palm, I'd be pretty surprise. The 686 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,480 Speaker 1: other note is just Anderson had six turnovers against Cincinnati. 687 00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:05,800 Speaker 1: He's going to have ball in his hands all the time. 688 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 1: Lipsi and Ture are like maybe the two best ball 689 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 1: pressure combos in the country. Yeah, worried about it. 690 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, and this Tech team they haven't been They've been 691 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,440 Speaker 3: vulnerable to teams that can pressure you on the road 692 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,120 Speaker 3: at time. So we saw that the Arizona State, the 693 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 3: turnover issues were massive against the team that will pressure you. 694 00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,279 Speaker 3: All Right, Jim Olgodia, what do you got. 695 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to sound like, I don't know, a broken 696 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 1: record of people been listening to this for since we 697 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,439 Speaker 1: started it. But going back to Gonzaga Saint Mary's under 698 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,359 Speaker 1: favorite bet of the weekend, I know you were going there. Yeah, 699 00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:43,160 Speaker 1: I bet it a couple of weeks ago. It closed 700 00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:44,839 Speaker 1: one hundred and forty four and a half landed one 701 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty eight. But it really wasn't that close. 702 00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,760 Speaker 1: It was late game fouling that pushed it up there. 703 00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,280 Speaker 1: In conference, Saint Mary's has ten unders, seven overs. Gonzaga 704 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,040 Speaker 1: has thirteen unders, four overs. Losing huff, they've really slowed down, 705 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 1: played through e in the post a lot. I think 706 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 1: that contributes quite a bit. And then just the history 707 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,879 Speaker 1: of this matchup, this was the big angle last time 708 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,479 Speaker 1: eighth straight have gone under. Twenty one of the last 709 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 1: thirty have gone under, and that history matters to me 710 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 1: because all thirty of those matchups are the same two coaches, 711 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:18,279 Speaker 1: and Bennett just knows how to slow down Gonzaga. This 712 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,319 Speaker 1: total at Ken Palm is one forty six, but like 713 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 1: I said, last one closed one forty four and a 714 00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 1: half and they've been nothing but under machines. I'm imagining 715 00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,879 Speaker 1: it's going to be like one forty three. But I'm 716 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:32,040 Speaker 1: still okay with that. I think everything. Yeah, the history 717 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,560 Speaker 1: in the matchup I think set up very very well 718 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:34,839 Speaker 1: for an. 719 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,319 Speaker 3: Under I knew you were going to go there. Greg. 720 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 3: I'm curious to see which I don't know which side 721 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,959 Speaker 3: you're taking here, but I think I'm going to agree 722 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 3: with you. But Seaton Hall Ukon, what you got there? 723 00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just looking at spot here and I'm going 724 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:53,080 Speaker 4: to jump all over the Yukon let down Following the 725 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 4: greatest defensive performance in Dan Hurley team history against a 726 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,720 Speaker 4: Seaton Hall team that you know the history here, Yukon 727 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,000 Speaker 4: has not exactly played their best in the Seaton Hall 728 00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 4: series in recent years. They got the Demons out thanks 729 00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 4: to an Etsy Witch earlier this season. But I think 730 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,400 Speaker 4: if you look back at that game, a five point 731 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:17,799 Speaker 4: Yukon win, Seaton Hall was able to do what they 732 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 4: do best for seventeen Yukon turnovers and that kept them 733 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,720 Speaker 4: in the game until very late. I think that holds 734 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,319 Speaker 4: true in this matchup. I don't know exactly what the 735 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,759 Speaker 4: number will be, but this is a Seaton Hall team 736 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,759 Speaker 4: that absolutely would love to just stamp their resume with 737 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,880 Speaker 4: a Yukon victory. It's a huge spot. Of course, Kempom 738 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 4: has it at thirteen, but if it's you know, anything 739 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,359 Speaker 4: around twelve or above, I'm going to be all over 740 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:42,080 Speaker 4: Seaton Hall here. 741 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,479 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I think this is like the best 742 00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 3: spot on Saturday or one of them. Seaton Hall week off, 743 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 3: you know, Connecticut off two mega efforts one midweek against 744 00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,920 Speaker 3: Saint John's, and I mean this game is how many 745 00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,320 Speaker 3: possessions are going to be in this game? Two teams 746 00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,960 Speaker 3: that want to grind it down. Connecticut's press offense has 747 00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 3: not been great this year. Now against Saint John's, you 748 00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,359 Speaker 3: can't press if you if you shoot six of fifty eight, 749 00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 3: miss your last twenty four shots, you can't set up 750 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,120 Speaker 3: any pressure. Now that could happen to seat In Hall 751 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:22,560 Speaker 3: as well. Their offense is undodly bad. Ken the I 752 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:28,520 Speaker 3: mean Ken Seaton Hall make four threes. They can make 753 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 3: four threes. Oh, they'll cover this game, but they just 754 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,680 Speaker 3: I mean they I laughed. They won a game last week. 755 00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 3: They shot oh of eighteen from three the first time 756 00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 3: these teams, says I think they went one of seventeen. 757 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,759 Speaker 3: I mean, this team cannot shoot against let's se they've 758 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,239 Speaker 3: been better. They've been better on the road, shooting on 759 00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,239 Speaker 3: the road, for what it's worth. But yeah, if they 760 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,800 Speaker 3: can just make like, just shoot twenty, just shoot thirty 761 00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,200 Speaker 3: percent from three, make a couple three, set up your 762 00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 3: pressure for some turnovers. Connecticut has a couple of guys 763 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,080 Speaker 3: that will miss some free throws, which is massive in 764 00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 3: a game with low like Reedal missed a bunch of 765 00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:05,279 Speaker 3: free throws, and then you know, a game with such 766 00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,400 Speaker 3: a low possession total. I think Seaton Hall can get 767 00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 3: enough offense, redounds, get to the line a couple of times, 768 00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,080 Speaker 3: and then just keep this close. It's also just that, 769 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,319 Speaker 3: like we mentioned a sleepy spot for a Connecticut team 770 00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:22,200 Speaker 3: that I think is bored at times in the Big East, 771 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,960 Speaker 3: and we've seen that at home, and we've seen Hurley 772 00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,319 Speaker 3: call out the crowd, right, the crowds haven't been great 773 00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,600 Speaker 3: for some of these other games. This is a noon tip, 774 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:32,880 Speaker 3: and how much energy is going to be in this building. 775 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,799 Speaker 3: There's probably not gonna be a lot of juice. And 776 00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 3: you look back at some of the the other home 777 00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 3: efforts against Yukon, I mean, before Saint John's, which is 778 00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,000 Speaker 3: obviously like mega game for the Big East, the building, 779 00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,880 Speaker 3: the team was juiced, but they lost to Creton at home. 780 00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:52,759 Speaker 3: Before that, they they beat Georgetown by four at home. 781 00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:57,399 Speaker 3: Before that, you know, they barely beat Providence at home. 782 00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,880 Speaker 3: They had to go to overtime against Villanova, you know, 783 00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:04,040 Speaker 3: de Paul, it wasn't a complete blowout. So like they've 784 00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,520 Speaker 3: had these games at home this year in Bigia's play 785 00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,600 Speaker 3: where they're just kind of sleepy and going through the motions. 786 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,200 Speaker 3: And this would be a game where I mean, that 787 00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,920 Speaker 3: fits the definition. So I agree, I'll be looking to 788 00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,600 Speaker 3: get seat in hopefully we can get a good number. 789 00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 3: Jim degree or disagree there? 790 00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, Just the spot is such a home run. 791 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:24,200 Speaker 3: What else you looking at? 792 00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:28,360 Speaker 1: Jim Vandy at Kentucky. I know we talked Vandy and 793 00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,520 Speaker 1: the Really two of my bets have a lot to 794 00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,560 Speaker 1: do with the future section that we discussed here, But 795 00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: I'm still selling Kentucky generally. I just don't love the fit. 796 00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,319 Speaker 1: The offense still drives me notts of times. I don't 797 00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,680 Speaker 1: have a true creator that makes other players better, and 798 00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,640 Speaker 1: they will turn it over fourteenth in the SEC and 799 00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,720 Speaker 1: turnover rate we talked about. With Miles back and Tanner 800 00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,320 Speaker 1: on the ball, Vandy can force turnovers number one in 801 00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:53,200 Speaker 1: the SEC and defensive turnover rate. I don't worry too 802 00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:57,040 Speaker 1: much about moreno and debate and Garrison punishing Vandy and 803 00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,560 Speaker 1: the paint. There's just not that many physical front courts 804 00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,160 Speaker 1: in this league. The first game was a total slaughter, 805 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,759 Speaker 1: and maybe that gives me some hesitance, like Vandy ran 806 00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,799 Speaker 1: them out of the gym. Maybe there's some flip to that. 807 00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,839 Speaker 1: Vandy a little complacent mentally, but Kentucky could not get 808 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,680 Speaker 1: near the rim first percentile and average two point a 809 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:18,279 Speaker 1: tenth distance in Ken Palm's database. Kentucky turned it over 810 00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:22,080 Speaker 1: fifteen times. I think that happens again, and with Miles healthier, 811 00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:23,879 Speaker 1: that's just a big for Vandy. So I like Vandy 812 00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,440 Speaker 1: on the road. There it's MYUS one at Ken Palm. 813 00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,239 Speaker 1: I'm thinking it'll be right around there. 814 00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:32,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, not a great matchup for my cats. Speaking of revenge, 815 00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:38,880 Speaker 3: I think I may look at Utah State over Grand Canyon. 816 00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,960 Speaker 3: They lost earlier this year, but they're coming off two 817 00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,680 Speaker 3: losses a blowout loss to San Diego State. I think 818 00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,279 Speaker 3: you get a fully focused EF a year at home, 819 00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,200 Speaker 3: and I don't think Grand Canyon can keep up, and 820 00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,080 Speaker 3: maybe some little hitten edge this time of the year. 821 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:55,160 Speaker 3: We know that Calhoun cares about the net and he 822 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,040 Speaker 3: will not take his foot off the gas late. So 823 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,480 Speaker 3: you know that the chances of a potential backdoor. You know, 824 00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,360 Speaker 3: if it's like a twelve point game that happened in Memphis. 825 00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,200 Speaker 3: It was like a fourteen point game, they're laying fifteen. 826 00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:08,960 Speaker 3: They went on like a ten to one run at 827 00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:13,279 Speaker 3: the end. So I'll be looking at Utah State another one. 828 00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,680 Speaker 3: Depending on how the IVY plays out. I might look 829 00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:24,120 Speaker 3: at penn On against Harvard on Saturday. The I mean, 830 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:29,800 Speaker 3: if you look at Harvard on the road in IVY 831 00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,600 Speaker 3: play has been I mean they've been They're five to zero, 832 00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,160 Speaker 3: but they're shooting thirty eight percent from three teams are 833 00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:40,960 Speaker 3: shooting twenty two percent from three. Meanwhile, Penn is shooting 834 00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,759 Speaker 3: only thirty percent from three at home forty five on 835 00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,440 Speaker 3: the road. But their defense is improved. McCaffrey's made some 836 00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,879 Speaker 3: adjustments there. Harvard could have everything clinched, pen could need 837 00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,719 Speaker 3: the game. There's some other tie breakers, but I might 838 00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,000 Speaker 3: be looking at Penn has been really good at home. 839 00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,560 Speaker 3: I think they have one loss all year at home 840 00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:02,040 Speaker 3: to Yale, and they've been playing better of late. So 841 00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,719 Speaker 3: I'll be looking at Penn on Saturday as well. Greg, 842 00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:06,399 Speaker 3: what else you got? 843 00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:10,080 Speaker 4: I want the other side of that diabolically awful Saint 844 00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:12,920 Speaker 4: John's Yukon game as well. I want the Johnnies in 845 00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,799 Speaker 4: a bounce back spot here against a Villanova team that 846 00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,560 Speaker 4: they have seen before this season. Remember it was a 847 00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:22,120 Speaker 4: seven point victory for Saint John's at Villanova back in 848 00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,480 Speaker 4: the middle of January. In that game that kayten Lewis 849 00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,239 Speaker 4: had six turnovers. I think a Kayden's been playing great. 850 00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,000 Speaker 4: I'm a huge fan of his. I think it's a 851 00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,440 Speaker 4: pretty tough matchup for him in general, which is all 852 00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:34,600 Speaker 4: the ball pressure, the physicality that Saint John's brings to 853 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,400 Speaker 4: the table, to size and the perimeter and then they 854 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:38,959 Speaker 4: can beat them up on the boards. And they didn't 855 00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,960 Speaker 4: really do it in the first matchup because Villanova shot 856 00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,040 Speaker 4: pretty well from three, so they didn't need to. But 857 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:49,280 Speaker 4: the Johnnys did get twelve offensive rebounds in that game, 858 00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,719 Speaker 4: and I think they're probably going to be able to 859 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,560 Speaker 4: come out the gates on fire with Rick Patino lighting 860 00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,840 Speaker 4: into them for three days on the form of a 861 00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,640 Speaker 4: three minute press conference in the hallway. 862 00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:00,480 Speaker 3: But I don't know. 863 00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,360 Speaker 4: Even just listening to Zoombi edge of four, he was 864 00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:03,680 Speaker 4: just like, Yeah, I don't know what that was. 865 00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:04,520 Speaker 3: That was a disaster. 866 00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,360 Speaker 4: I expect the Johnny's at their best. 867 00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:07,520 Speaker 3: I don't know that there's. 868 00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,560 Speaker 4: Much Villanova can do to hold them off the boards 869 00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:11,720 Speaker 4: physically in this game. 870 00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:15,680 Speaker 3: Jim, you you want to fade the UCLA on the 871 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,319 Speaker 3: road in another time zone. 872 00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it. I see you've got Minnesota written 873 00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:21,439 Speaker 1: down there as well. I think it makes sense. They're 874 00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,560 Speaker 1: one in five ats outside of the Pacific time zone, 875 00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,520 Speaker 1: one in five straight up. The only win and cover 876 00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,719 Speaker 1: was at Penn State, who is abysmal. And you've also 877 00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,720 Speaker 1: got UCLA coming off two huge wins like the buzzer 878 00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,719 Speaker 1: beater in ot against Illinois and blowing out their cross 879 00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,800 Speaker 1: town rival USC. The concern is that there's no Crocker 880 00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,040 Speaker 1: Johnson for Minnesota for the year, right, Yeah, that's I 881 00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:47,719 Speaker 1: think that's like the expectation, unfortunately, And one of Minnesota's 882 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,520 Speaker 1: huge advantages is taking you out of transition offense, Like 883 00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,600 Speaker 1: that's how they stuck with Michigan for so long. And 884 00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,200 Speaker 1: I don't think mccronian really cares about that. He's happy 885 00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:57,920 Speaker 1: to get into a rock fight in half court. But 886 00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:00,040 Speaker 1: the Barn is just a tough place to go, and 887 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,799 Speaker 1: you have like this weird travel to Minnesota then come 888 00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,120 Speaker 1: back home and host Nebraska coming off two wins, Like, 889 00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,359 Speaker 1: it's a challenging spot for UCLA and they've already proven 890 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,120 Speaker 1: their bad outside their time zone. So give me the 891 00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:11,640 Speaker 1: go ferst. 892 00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:16,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I wish Crocker Johnson is playing. But one of 893 00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:21,080 Speaker 3: the what UCLI has really really struggled to defend cutting action, 894 00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,200 Speaker 3: and that's basically all Minnesota is in the half court. 895 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,319 Speaker 3: They're elite in that aspect, so I think that they can. 896 00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,319 Speaker 3: They're gonna get a lot of like back doors and 897 00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:33,240 Speaker 3: open layups here and then as a result, some wide 898 00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,760 Speaker 3: open looks from three. But because of the Crocker Johnson injury, 899 00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,160 Speaker 3: because they're so short ended, Minnesota is basically now a 900 00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:44,160 Speaker 3: zone defense if you look over the past three games. 901 00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,319 Speaker 3: I'll put up here in a sec but that so 902 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:52,240 Speaker 3: as a result, that helps in this specific matchup for 903 00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,560 Speaker 3: a couple of reasons. But before when they you know, 904 00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,279 Speaker 3: weren't a zone defense, and now Medgod has had to 905 00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:01,759 Speaker 3: go zone, their pick a roll defense was really bad 906 00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:05,480 Speaker 3: and that would have been a problem against UCLA very 907 00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:09,640 Speaker 3: pick and roll heavy offense, obviously with a very electric 908 00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:14,880 Speaker 3: league guard in that aspect. But now like that, going 909 00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:19,040 Speaker 3: almost zone is basically you know, takes away mitigates a 910 00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,880 Speaker 3: lot of those issues and it's just going to lead 911 00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,200 Speaker 3: to a lot more spot up threes, and that's not 912 00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:27,000 Speaker 3: something you said I loves to do. They're capable, but 913 00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,799 Speaker 3: they're not a great spot up shooting team. They're not, 914 00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,759 Speaker 3: So I think that the reason. Because Crocker Johnson is out, 915 00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:37,399 Speaker 3: it does hurt and hurts their ceiling on the offensive end. 916 00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,920 Speaker 3: But because of that, because he's been out there, gone zone, 917 00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:44,880 Speaker 3: which I think works to their advantage in this specific matchup. 918 00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:50,120 Speaker 3: I mean, looking at Minnesota zone their past, let's see 919 00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:54,320 Speaker 3: I mean, here's their last four games against Washington twenty 920 00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,080 Speaker 3: five possessions in mandate thirty in zone, and then here's 921 00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,839 Speaker 3: the last three thirty two zone eight man, forty six 922 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,640 Speaker 3: zone nine man, and then their last game against Michigan 923 00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:09,200 Speaker 3: sixty eight zone two possessions in man. And then as 924 00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:10,719 Speaker 3: a result, if you look at all the possessions they're 925 00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,200 Speaker 3: giving up in pick and roll versus spot up, there 926 00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,360 Speaker 3: was a basically flipped from their season long and I 927 00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,120 Speaker 3: think that that'll help in this specific matchup. So, yeah, 928 00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:23,040 Speaker 3: UCLA on the road. Hopefully Donovan Dent doesn't make four. 929 00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:24,359 Speaker 3: I mean he made four threes in the first half 930 00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:25,719 Speaker 3: the other night. I don't think he's made four threes 931 00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:29,800 Speaker 3: in the game in four years. But like the spot 932 00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,680 Speaker 3: and there's some matchup things I don't mind there, Greg, 933 00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,160 Speaker 3: what else you got. 934 00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,200 Speaker 4: We talked about this in the by low Sell high. 935 00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,160 Speaker 4: But I'm just taking a shot at Clemson against Louisville. Here, 936 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,880 Speaker 4: I looked up Louisville's shooting splits. By the way, they 937 00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:45,680 Speaker 4: shoot it way better at home than they do on 938 00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,800 Speaker 4: the road. I'm sure that's expected, but thirty eight percent 939 00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,000 Speaker 4: at home thirty three percent on the road. I think 940 00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:57,480 Speaker 4: all the numbers point to Clemson deserving a good shooting. 941 00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:57,880 Speaker 3: Break in a game. 942 00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,560 Speaker 4: We know that that's basically all Louisville wants to do 943 00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:03,160 Speaker 4: if they just go dry. I think this could be 944 00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,400 Speaker 4: honestly a runaway with the game for Clemson. But I 945 00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,920 Speaker 4: will say this, it's on my card. I never feel 946 00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:11,960 Speaker 4: good about doing the big three point variance game like 947 00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,200 Speaker 4: good luck. Every time I fade Louisville, they just shoot 948 00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:17,680 Speaker 4: fifty two and I regret it every single second. But 949 00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:20,840 Speaker 4: I'm going back to the well for it strictly because 950 00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:21,400 Speaker 4: of the spot. 951 00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:27,719 Speaker 3: A couple other spots here Cornell against I think they're 952 00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:30,880 Speaker 3: Brown on Saturday. I think Brown will be eliminated on 953 00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,480 Speaker 3: Friday Night from Mighty Madness, and they just don't have 954 00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:38,680 Speaker 3: the offense to keep up with Cornell. So I'll be 955 00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:43,320 Speaker 3: looking at big Red there. Tennessee potentially against out. I 956 00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:46,120 Speaker 3: know Alabama has revenge, which I don't love from earlier 957 00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:50,959 Speaker 3: this season. Maybe Filon doesn't play again. I just think 958 00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:56,479 Speaker 3: this Alabama Tennessee should dominate Alabama on the glass, and 959 00:49:56,800 --> 00:50:00,719 Speaker 3: Tennessee's one of their major issues is turnovers. Well, they're Alabama, 960 00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:02,239 Speaker 3: is not. I think they're dead last in the country 961 00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,759 Speaker 3: enforcing turnovers on the road. They're not going to force 962 00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:07,880 Speaker 3: any turnovers here. I think Tennessee can crush them inside 963 00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:11,800 Speaker 3: and look Alabama for as well as they've looked, and 964 00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:13,719 Speaker 3: when you make twenty two threes in the game, you're 965 00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:17,399 Speaker 3: gonna look great. Name when's the here's a tripa cars. 966 00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:22,960 Speaker 3: When's the last time Alabama beat a tournament team away 967 00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:23,799 Speaker 3: from home? 968 00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,640 Speaker 1: Anyone want to guess Saint John's That's fine, Yeah. 969 00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:30,839 Speaker 3: Saint John's November eighth. Actually, now, I mean I guess 970 00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,279 Speaker 3: Illinois was Illinois, so November nineteen. But my point is 971 00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:40,480 Speaker 3: they've had a pretty favorable run here, winners of seven straight. Right, 972 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,600 Speaker 3: they'd beat Texas A and M by three at home. Auburn, 973 00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:45,920 Speaker 3: I guess Auburn could be a tournament team. They're they're 974 00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:49,040 Speaker 3: gonna they're squarely on the bubble, you know. Then they've 975 00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:52,160 Speaker 3: had ole, miss South Carolina or a shorthanded Arkansas. They 976 00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:56,080 Speaker 3: went in double overtime LSU and Mississippi State? What else? 977 00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:01,840 Speaker 3: New Haven? Potentially, I there's a chance. Just pay attention 978 00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:03,279 Speaker 3: to the that there's a chance. It depends on the 979 00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,840 Speaker 3: number and the situation. But there's a chance Lamoine It 980 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,640 Speaker 3: doesn't have a deep bench. They don't go deep, and 981 00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,680 Speaker 3: they've had a couple of injuries that they've dealt with 982 00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,680 Speaker 3: them in recent weeks. But there's a chance Lamoyn's locked 983 00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:18,480 Speaker 3: into the four going into Saturday, depending on what happens tonight. 984 00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:24,760 Speaker 3: And that means after tonight they're not going to prep 985 00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,200 Speaker 3: for new Haven on Saturday. They're gonna prep for whoever 986 00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,680 Speaker 3: they I would imagine you start prepping for Wednesday. You 987 00:51:30,719 --> 00:51:33,680 Speaker 3: also might not run some of your guys as hard. 988 00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:35,879 Speaker 3: You know, Shiloh Jackson, the Company. You might not play 989 00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:39,360 Speaker 3: them forty minutes with the NEC tournament looming, and you 990 00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:40,920 Speaker 3: might have a sea locked up in New Haven. It's 991 00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,759 Speaker 3: not eligible. This is their first year in D one. 992 00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,239 Speaker 3: It's their final home game. I think you get their 993 00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:54,360 Speaker 3: best effort Montana potentially against Portland State. They match up 994 00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,359 Speaker 3: pretty well against Portland Say they already beat Portland State 995 00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,400 Speaker 3: earlier this year. There's a chance Portland State has everything 996 00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:03,680 Speaker 3: wrapped up by then, and they're a team that I 997 00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,600 Speaker 3: think is starting to stumble late in the year. They 998 00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:09,760 Speaker 3: were very lucky all year, won a ton of close games, 999 00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,839 Speaker 3: had good three point variants, but they're starting to wear down. 1000 00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:17,160 Speaker 3: They have no bench at all, bottom ten fifteen. They 1001 00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:20,279 Speaker 3: basically run like a six to seven man rotation. And 1002 00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:24,120 Speaker 3: what has happened. We'll look at their Saturdays, their Saturdays 1003 00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,800 Speaker 3: after the Thursday games on in the Big Sky schedule. 1004 00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,960 Speaker 3: They got blown out by Eastern Washington last Saturday. The 1005 00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,920 Speaker 3: Saturday before that, they got blown out by Northern Colorado. 1006 00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:37,640 Speaker 3: The Saturday before that, they beat Sacramento State by one. 1007 00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,480 Speaker 3: So I think that they're starting to wear it down. 1008 00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,680 Speaker 3: There's no reason to push it here if they have 1009 00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,800 Speaker 3: everything locked up. I think Montana matches up pretty well. 1010 00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:49,480 Speaker 3: So I'll be looking at the grizz and I think 1011 00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:51,360 Speaker 3: that was it for me. Greg. What else you got? 1012 00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:55,600 Speaker 4: My last one is Florida against Arkansas in the Boogie 1013 00:52:55,640 --> 00:53:00,000 Speaker 4: Flanned Bowl Here. I just want any great front court 1014 00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:03,680 Speaker 4: against Arkansas as much as possible, whenever possible. I think 1015 00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:05,840 Speaker 4: there's a shock value for SEC teams when they have 1016 00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:07,880 Speaker 4: to play Florida. When you think about all of the 1017 00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:11,759 Speaker 4: contenders in this conference, there's really not any teams that 1018 00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:15,400 Speaker 4: are employing pros in the front court this year. Florida's 1019 00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,239 Speaker 4: got three of them. It's just different you don't really 1020 00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:19,880 Speaker 4: know what you're looking at until you see it. And 1021 00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,279 Speaker 4: I think you go through Arkansas schedule this year when 1022 00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,600 Speaker 4: they've ran up against those types most of those games 1023 00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,040 Speaker 4: in the non conference, it hasn't gone well. Give up 1024 00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:30,200 Speaker 4: a bunch of offensive boards, Duke, Houston, Michigan State all got 1025 00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:30,959 Speaker 4: the better of them. 1026 00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:33,239 Speaker 3: So this Florida team's a train. We know that. 1027 00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,880 Speaker 4: But I think that's going to be a pretty motivated 1028 00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,640 Speaker 4: spot for the Gators and I expect them to win 1029 00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:39,600 Speaker 4: by double digits. 1030 00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:41,080 Speaker 3: Jim, you got anything else? 1031 00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,200 Speaker 1: A couple ones real quick? Yeah, Penn State plus nine 1032 00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,120 Speaker 1: is the Ken Palm line right now. But Iowa just 1033 00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,759 Speaker 1: played really, really well against Ohio State. They have not 1034 00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,919 Speaker 1: been great on the road before a big home game. 1035 00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:56,160 Speaker 1: They lost at Minnesota before hosting Illinois, lost at Maryland 1036 00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:59,480 Speaker 1: before hosting Purdue, lost at Wisconsin before hosting Ohio State. 1037 00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:01,440 Speaker 1: The ask the it's a little dice serve example. But 1038 00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:03,719 Speaker 1: they've got a little bit of a sandwich here with 1039 00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:07,719 Speaker 1: hosting Michigan coming up, and I think you just get 1040 00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:09,560 Speaker 1: a little bit more of a dead effort from them. 1041 00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,839 Speaker 1: They play so slowly, it's a little harder to blow 1042 00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,560 Speaker 1: teams out in the conference. Penn State stinks, but they've 1043 00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:16,880 Speaker 1: fought okay at home, lost by mission, lost to Michigan 1044 00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:20,160 Speaker 1: by two, beat Minnesota, lost USC by two, so I 1045 00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,640 Speaker 1: think they can hang. And then in the Patriot League 1046 00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:25,600 Speaker 1: Colgate plus eight. Colgate kind of needs it for the 1047 00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,480 Speaker 1: two seed. Navies won the league for two weeks and 1048 00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:30,319 Speaker 1: they've still been rolling teams. But it's the last game 1049 00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,880 Speaker 1: of the year. Could potentially sit a little bit. Colgate 1050 00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:36,279 Speaker 1: almost had them in overtime in the first meeting. I 1051 00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:37,680 Speaker 1: think there's a little bit of pride in the line, 1052 00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:40,279 Speaker 1: plus wanting to get that two seed. In the Patriot League, 1053 00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:43,760 Speaker 1: it's to host home games that matters. Then mcneicse minus 1054 00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:47,160 Speaker 1: seven at New Orleans total spot one here for New Orleans. 1055 00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:49,440 Speaker 1: They were off that huge win at Steven F. Austin 1056 00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:51,319 Speaker 1: that kind of came out of nowhere on Monday. Now 1057 00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,720 Speaker 1: they played the most talented team in the league in McNeice, 1058 00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:56,799 Speaker 1: most athletic. I think McNeice gets them. It kind of 1059 00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:57,839 Speaker 1: blows them out on the road. 1060 00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:00,839 Speaker 3: Bighamton just put off a big co It's keeps their 1061 00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:03,759 Speaker 3: season alive. Only the top eight the Americans make it. They 1062 00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:07,040 Speaker 3: now are three and twelve. They will host Maine on Saturday. 1063 00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:10,840 Speaker 3: I might look at bigger than there, but that'll do 1064 00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,680 Speaker 3: it for us. Thanks to Jim. Actually, no favorite bet, 1065 00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:18,600 Speaker 3: favorite bet if the lines are where you think they're 1066 00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:21,200 Speaker 3: going to be, what would you say your your favorite 1067 00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:23,000 Speaker 3: bet is as of right now, Jim. 1068 00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,720 Speaker 1: Good Zaga Saint Mary's under just going to keep riding 1069 00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:27,640 Speaker 1: the train until it goes off the tracks. 1070 00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:31,000 Speaker 4: Yep, hitter me and the Bandwagon with Jim for that one. 1071 00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:32,920 Speaker 4: But I'll go Johnny's against. 1072 00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:34,560 Speaker 3: Nova and I'm gonna say Iowa State. I think they 1073 00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:37,399 Speaker 3: buried Texas Tech. All right, that'll do it for us. 1074 00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:40,920 Speaker 3: Thanks to Greg and Jim for joining me. Thanks to 1075 00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:42,560 Speaker 3: our prucer David on the back end, most partly thanks 1076 00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:45,279 Speaker 3: to all be for tuning in. Conference tournament previously start 1077 00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:49,480 Speaker 3: next week, but Weave will have their semi normal Sunday 1078 00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:51,560 Speaker 3: early week episode because they're also going to cover the 1079 00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,920 Speaker 3: first three conference tournaments. And make sure if you're doing 1080 00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:56,279 Speaker 3: any contests, check out my Twitter if you want to 1081 00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,120 Speaker 3: join a contest that I'm running. The goat confer recool 1082 00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,759 Speaker 3: It's awesome give you action on every single game. It's 1083 00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:04,840 Speaker 3: a good way to just have Action all day on everything, 1084 00:56:06,160 --> 00:56:08,560 Speaker 3: but make sure you check that out. And then starting 1085 00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,520 Speaker 3: like Tuesday Wednesday, we'll be rolling them out a couple 1086 00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:14,920 Speaker 3: a day or two at least before the next wave starts, 1087 00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,440 Speaker 3: and we'll have you covered for every single one, and 1088 00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:21,080 Speaker 3: then obviously throughout the NCAA Tournament Live show Saturday, ten 1089 00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:25,160 Speaker 3: thirty am Eastern. As always, check out everything that Greig 1090 00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:30,520 Speaker 3: is doing on Twitter with sleepers and his stuff, Jim 1091 00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:33,560 Speaker 3: with three men leave and his stuff. I'll do a 1092 00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:36,000 Speaker 3: tremendous job. Thanks again for tuning in. 1093 00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:49,440 Speaker 5: Let's have a March catch all inter cheers. 1094 00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,399 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 1095 00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,640 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 1096 00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:05,560 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 1097 00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:06,400 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler