Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is
Speaker 1: Week sixteen. We did not do the look Aheadlines podcast
Speaker 1: this week early on just because a it's the holidays,
Speaker 1: everybody's traveling and be the games and end until you know,
Speaker 1: late night on Tuesday. So this is the only podcast
Speaker 1: for this week, but it is our best bets for
Speaker 1: Week sixteen at the NFL season. With me to do
Speaker 1: that is Pat Fitzmorris, senior editor here at Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Find them on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat. Happy holidays.
Speaker 1: How you doing?
Speaker 2: Happy Holidays? Dan, I'm doing well. Maybe there will be
Speaker 2: a few more people interested in playing these games this
Speaker 2: week since there have been some eliminations unfortunately in our
Speaker 2: fantasy leagues.
Speaker 1: That's true, that's true. Yes, our fantasy leagues are slowly
Speaker 1: whittling down. Thankfully, the betting landscape doesn't change. Although we
Speaker 1: can be as honest as possible, right Pat, this is
Speaker 1: an unconventional time right now in football, and there are
Speaker 1: a lot of bets, Pat, that I want to make
Speaker 1: at the moment and a couple that I have, but
Speaker 1: we have to try lightly right because of the COVID
Speaker 1: situation and everything that's happening. So we'll give out recommendations.
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't run out to bet anything necessarily just yet.
Speaker 1: I would wait as long as possible to see what
Speaker 1: the COVID situations are, certainly for various teams and even
Speaker 1: teams again that we don't know about yet. Just you know,
Speaker 1: we'll have to see what may come in the next
Speaker 1: couple of days. But Pat our last podcast we were
Speaker 1: on for the best bets. We were on opposite sides
Speaker 1: of a game, as you well know, and that game
Speaker 1: turned out to be I don't know if both of
Speaker 1: us were right or neither one of us was right.
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers wound up winning that game, so
Speaker 1: I wound up being on the right side. So we'll
Speaker 1: see whether or not we'll be joining forces on some
Speaker 1: games this week, or whether we'll have some difference of opinions.
Speaker 1: But if so, I look forward to that part. Remember
Speaker 1: what this one is, guys. This is our three best
Speaker 1: bets of the weekend moneyline spreads totals whatever. We'll quickly
Speaker 1: run through the remaining spreads games that we don't talk
Speaker 1: about a couple of things before we start. Hopefully you
Speaker 1: are watching this podcast as well or listening to it
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Speaker 1: And also let me remind you about the latest offer
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Speaker 1: bet MGM Juice one hundred. Brief recap of last week
Speaker 1: read Wallach went two and one. He hit on the
Speaker 1: Steelers getting one and a half from the Titans and
Speaker 1: the Bengals getting two and a half, but he missed
Speaker 1: on the Patriots getting two and a half from the Colts.
Speaker 1: I went one and two. I hit on the Jets
Speaker 1: getting ten points from the Dolphins. Pardon me, pat got that?
Speaker 1: I bet on the Jets. How about that? We went crazy?
Speaker 1: I know that was the bet I hit. I missed
Speaker 1: on the Packers laying five and a half to the
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Bills Panthers under forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: I believe the total went to forty five there and
Speaker 1: the Packers pat right like I got it early. I said,
Speaker 1: bet it early. The spread was I don't know nine
Speaker 1: or something with the time of clothes, maybe went down
Speaker 1: the seven or whatever. So it's like, yes, got the
Speaker 1: best of the number. Still no good, but your Packers
Speaker 1: did win. Congratulations there, okay. Oh by the way, Pat
Speaker 1: before we get going, I don't know whether or not
Speaker 1: you are you were planning to take the Saints, but
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill has just been placed in the reserve COVID
Speaker 1: nightteen oh, and the team is planning to start ian
Speaker 1: book this weekend. So yeah, so you can deal with
Speaker 1: that if you were, were you planning to take that
Speaker 1: game at all? I was.
Speaker 2: I was anxious to talk about the total with you,
Speaker 2: which is already at thirty nine. I mean, what's it
Speaker 2: gonna be nowt twenty nine after like, this is gonna
Speaker 2: be one of the lowest totals of the season.
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. And because Trevor STI means also out,
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is this is something. Okay, we'll figure
Speaker 1: this all out later, but in time. In the meantime, Bat,
Speaker 1: let's talk about our best bets again. Anything you want, money, line, spread, total,
Speaker 1: whatever you want. You're the guest on this podcast, Pat,
Speaker 1: so I defer to you here. Please give me your
Speaker 1: favorite bet for the weekend.
Speaker 2: All right, let's start off with You know, I hate
Speaker 2: generally taking double digit road favorites, but I'm going to
Speaker 2: start with the LA Chargers at the Houston Texans laying
Speaker 2: ten and I the Chargers, they obviously need this. They're
Speaker 2: eight and six, They're in the thick of the wild
Speaker 2: card hunt. They can not afford an untimely stumble against
Speaker 2: a team that, by every metric that I have seen
Speaker 2: is regarded as the worst in the NFL, whether it's
Speaker 2: a you know, strength like a power ranking thing by
Speaker 2: you know, Massy Peabody or Sagarin or whoever it is,
Speaker 2: or the PFF grades like everyone as Houston it's the
Speaker 2: worst team in the league, even though they've managed to
Speaker 2: stumble into three wins this year. But I just don't
Speaker 2: think they have enough to hold off the Chargers and
Speaker 2: keep this one close. The Chargers will have had some
Speaker 2: extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night in
Speaker 2: Week fifteen. Got a lot of firepower on offense. I
Speaker 2: mean it's not just Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler like
Speaker 2: Mike Williams. I know it was guite news on COVID, right,
Speaker 2: Josh Palmer is still a very good third wide out.
Speaker 2: He's been a nice rookie surprise. So I think they
Speaker 2: have too much firepower and just will overwhelm the Texans
Speaker 2: here in the one flaw the Chargers have dan is
Speaker 2: their run defense and maybe they're tackling and this is
Speaker 2: the one team in the league that just can't do
Speaker 2: any damage to them on the ground with Rex Burghead
Speaker 2: and David John like the Texans running game as a joke,
Speaker 2: so they are not going to be able to seize
Speaker 2: on that one weakness the Chargers might have.
Speaker 1: Does it matter to you whatsoever about the current COVID
Speaker 1: situation with them, with the fact that both Austin Eckler
Speaker 1: we mentioned Geyton, but Eckler's on the COVID list and
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks is also on the COVID. I mean, if
Speaker 1: Cooks is out right, I mean whatever, But does that
Speaker 1: matter to you whatsoever? If either or both play?
Speaker 2: It doesn't know because I mean they've they've got a
Speaker 2: capable I guess running back by committee if Eckler is
Speaker 2: not cleared with Justin Jackson, who actually looked good against
Speaker 2: the Chiefs last year. You know, I don't think Joshua
Speaker 2: Kelly is any great running back. I don't know about
Speaker 2: Larry Rowntree, who would probably be active, but I just
Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna matter. Like I think they would
Speaker 2: be able to do more damage through the air and
Speaker 2: have just enough of a running game to provide some balance.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So if I have to go on this game,
Speaker 1: I would be with you because I do think that
Speaker 1: the likelihood is that the Chargers cover this. It's really
Speaker 1: tough for me to get a road team, regardless of
Speaker 1: anything else, laying you know, double digit points. But this
Speaker 1: does strike me as a game where you're right. This
Speaker 1: is not a game where the Chargers can sort of
Speaker 1: come out and be flat. You know, they have to
Speaker 1: come out. They have to keep their foot on the
Speaker 1: gas pedal. They have to put this game away and
Speaker 1: not mess around. The extra rest is a big deal
Speaker 1: at this point in the season, where everybody's exhaust and
Speaker 1: everything like that. They won't have Joey Bosa, right, he's
Speaker 1: declared out I think right for this game already because
Speaker 1: of the cop believe so, and because I think it's
Speaker 1: on back, so I think he's already out. So that
Speaker 1: does obviously hurt the defense, but I don't think it matters,
Speaker 1: so I would lean towards you. But again, a road
Speaker 1: favorite of double digit points, which is really tough for
Speaker 1: me to make my favorites. So I'm interested that you are,
Speaker 1: But this is not one we'll fight about. Would you
Speaker 1: like me to give you one that we're gonna fight about,
Speaker 1: pat Let's do it, Dan, that's the Bills visiting the Patriots,
Speaker 1: laying two and a half. Now Tomorrow is Christmas Eve.
Speaker 1: I will be spending it with my wife's family and
Speaker 1: I'm going to play this for my father in law
Speaker 1: with whom I'm very close and my brother in law,
Speaker 1: who I'm also very close with, and I imagine that
Speaker 1: they will come out and tell me I'm an idiot
Speaker 1: for taking the Bills getting the two and a half,
Speaker 1: which is fine. Bill and Kevin, I hope you're listening
Speaker 1: to this. I love you, guys. I hope you have
Speaker 1: a great day today. But you're gonna lose this game.
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are gonna are gonna win this
Speaker 1: game here, pat like, I would take them on the
Speaker 1: money line, but you know, moneyline, BET's what I mean.
Speaker 1: I'll sprinkle on the money line because if you're going
Speaker 1: to take anybody as a short, you know, dog, you
Speaker 1: might as well take them on the money line as well.
Speaker 1: But my official pick will be two and a half.
Speaker 1: There are some twos out there. I'll take the two
Speaker 1: and a half. Obviously, we have some issues with the
Speaker 1: Bills right now. They've got you know, Tredavius Whites out
Speaker 1: for the year. There's no Cole Beasley in this game
Speaker 1: because he tests a positive and he's unvaccinated. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: assume Emmanuel Sanders isn't gonna play here. Pat Both teams
Speaker 1: here are are good and pretty even. I feel like
Speaker 1: when you look at the metrics, right, billse are you know,
Speaker 1: third in overall DVOA. Pats are fifth on defense, the
Speaker 1: Bills are second in EPA per play, the Patriots are third.
Speaker 1: But I'm just I'm tired of like I haven't been
Speaker 1: the whole year pat But I just I'm not trusting
Speaker 1: Mac Jones basically to be able to win these types
Speaker 1: of games.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I know they beat the Bills in the windiest game
Speaker 1: in the history of mankind where he threw three passes,
Speaker 1: but you see what happens if he is forced to
Speaker 1: put the game on his shoulders, like we saw against
Speaker 1: the Colts, it's gonna be really difficult for him to
Speaker 1: do that. They don't have the playmakers in the receiving game,
Speaker 1: and he's a rookie. And we saw how much success
Speaker 1: the Patriots had running the ball against the Bills, of course,
Speaker 1: but even then, pat they still only scored fourteen points
Speaker 1: despite the fact that they could run the ball at
Speaker 1: will in that game. Had the Bills had any semblance
Speaker 1: of a running game, or had they even just let
Speaker 1: Josh Allen throw the ball regularly, even a little more,
Speaker 1: even in that wind, they would have won the game.
Speaker 1: So Damian Harris is hopefully going to play here, but
Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne's on the COVID list, Nelson Aguiler is probably out,
Speaker 1: and kill Harry maybe out. The Bills have issues on
Speaker 1: the offensive line again with COVID John Feliciano Deon Dawkins.
Speaker 1: The Bills are just a better team here. I think
Speaker 1: pat like in a vacuum, they're a better team. It's
Speaker 1: really as simple as that. Too evenly matched teams. It's
Speaker 1: a second divisional game, so you assume it's going to
Speaker 1: be tough. I'm just going to take the underdog and
Speaker 1: the one that doesn't have the rookie quarterback here, especially
Speaker 1: if they're getting points. So I imagine that you have
Speaker 1: a differing opinion, and I would like to hear it.
Speaker 2: I do well, let me be your sparring partner before
Speaker 2: your main event with Bill and Kevin.
Speaker 1: Can you do it?
Speaker 2: Chris? The way that is not good at I should
Speaker 2: have on my podcast this week, I said the Wolf
Speaker 2: of Rodo Street. He's a good Boston guy. I've been
Speaker 2: paying more careful attention so I could mimic more accurately.
Speaker 2: But I don't know if my argument is going to
Speaker 2: be quite as thorough as yours. But in that first meeting,
Speaker 2: we saw the Patriots just abandoned the running game, say
Speaker 2: we're gonna run this and uh, the Bills, oh sorry,
Speaker 2: abandoned the passing game, throw three passes, run it down
Speaker 2: their throats for being an outdoor buffalo team. The Bills
Speaker 2: are a finesse team. It totally blies their location geographically,
Speaker 2: but they are a finesse team. And I think the
Speaker 2: Patriots like took pride in just beating the hell out
Speaker 2: of them in that game physically two weeks ago and
Speaker 2: winning the game that way, And I think they're going
Speaker 2: to try to play that way again and run and
Speaker 2: they have to again here the first time it was
Speaker 2: the wind. This time it's their complete shortage of wide receivers.
Speaker 2: I guess Jacoby Myers is basically like the only healthy
Speaker 2: receiver they have. They're going to line up two tight
Speaker 2: ends run it probably sixty five percent of the time
Speaker 2: against the Bills, and the Bills don't have a great
Speaker 2: run dye. You know they it's either going to be
Speaker 2: a lot of Ramandre Stevenson or a Stevenson Harris combo,
Speaker 2: and I think they're going to have some success as
Speaker 2: they did before. I mean, they didn't hit many long runs,
Speaker 2: but they moved the chains and they got that one
Speaker 2: long run from Damien Harris for the touchdown. And then defensively,
Speaker 2: like I love this Patriots pass defense, Like I think
Speaker 2: it's the best pass defense in the NFL. Their secondary
Speaker 2: is just you know, air tights. I mean, maybe maybe
Speaker 2: Jalen Mills isn't like the best cornerback, but other than that,
Speaker 2: I mean it's there's no weakness in that secondary, and
Speaker 2: they can put pressure on quarterbacks with only four which
Speaker 2: is kind of key against the Bills because that stops
Speaker 2: like if you have your linebackers staying home, like Josh
Speaker 2: Allen probably isn't going to do quite as much damage
Speaker 2: as he could. Although you know, last game he I
Speaker 2: don't can't remember how many rushing yards he had against them.
Speaker 2: Did he go over a hundred against the No? Against
Speaker 2: I can't remember how how many rushing yards he had
Speaker 2: against them, Yeah, yeah, two weeks ago. I can't Anyway,
Speaker 2: I don't know. And like Devin Singletary. The Bills have
Speaker 2: had this inconsistent running game all year. I like that
Speaker 2: they've basically narrowed it down to having Devin Singletary be
Speaker 2: their main guy, or at least we think so, because
Speaker 2: they've had faked us on their backs before. But like,
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to have enough to
Speaker 2: just consistently. It's just not the Bills m to really
Speaker 2: like pound away with a running back. You know, they
Speaker 2: don't win games that way. So yeah, I have some
Speaker 2: concerns about their ability to consistently move the ball on
Speaker 2: this Patriots defense, which is so good against the pass,
Speaker 2: and I think the Patriots are just a more physical
Speaker 2: game being at home outdoors in Foxborough. Like I just
Speaker 2: I kind of like the Pats in this one. Dan,
Speaker 2: It's not a best bet, but I am going to
Speaker 2: be putting something on the Pats laying the points.
Speaker 1: All right, So good. We can use this for our
Speaker 1: Sunday night podcast again, we do a fancy podcast on
Speaker 1: Sunday nights. So this will again whoever wins this game,
Speaker 1: I will say pat will be able to kind of
Speaker 1: lout it over the other one. But I will say
Speaker 1: that even with that game, which by the way had
Speaker 1: one like however long Damien Harris's touchdown run was early.
Speaker 2: On sixty eight or something.
Speaker 1: They moved the ball by the way, I thinksh Allen
Speaker 1: had thirty nine yards rushing or something or thing. Okay,
Speaker 1: So even with that, even with them being a to
Speaker 1: move the ball at will, which was just crazy, right, Like,
Speaker 1: they literally ran the same play over and over again
Speaker 1: and the Bills can have them. They had fourteen points,
Speaker 1: like they this was not sort of a thing where
Speaker 1: they could put up points at will because they can't
Speaker 1: pass the ball and they're not gonna be or at
Speaker 1: least in that game with the win. I don't expect
Speaker 1: them to be able to do it here. Again, as
Speaker 1: you mentioned Jacobe Myers and Hunter Henry. Fine, but I
Speaker 1: do think that the Bills newfound running game, and you're right,
Speaker 1: we've been headfaked before. But I think the difference here
Speaker 1: is that they understand they have to have a semblance
Speaker 1: of a running game. They have to because otherwise if
Speaker 1: they're just sort of gonna be this passing offense where
Speaker 1: there are down weapons and where teams have sort of
Speaker 1: adapted to them. And Josh Allen isn't playing quite as
Speaker 1: well as he did last year. I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be able to attack them. And again, even in that game,
Speaker 1: what was the final score that on? Fourteen to ten?
Speaker 1: Is that right? So yeah, they missed you know, if
Speaker 1: you know Tyler Bass doesn't miss a you know, twenty
Speaker 1: yards field goal or anything like that, they probably win
Speaker 1: that game, you know, in that game. I just think
Speaker 1: they're a better team.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: Now again, I have been fading two teams this most
Speaker 1: of the year. Not always sometimes I back them, but
Speaker 1: most of the year Patriots have been one of them.
Speaker 1: Has not always worked out, certainly. I'll talk about the
Speaker 1: other one here with my second pick. But I really
Speaker 1: like this betpat I really do. And by the way,
Speaker 1: assuming that everything stays the same, like, I will be
Speaker 1: happy to also tease up the Bills here to eight
Speaker 1: and a half. This is a prime teaser piece for
Speaker 1: me to bilt like that. I don't see the Patriots
Speaker 1: winning this game by ten points, like under any circumstances,
Speaker 1: you know, I think at the very least it'll be
Speaker 1: a close game, maybe they win by three. If that happens,
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think the Bills went out right,
Speaker 1: But I'll probably also tease the Bills up to eight
Speaker 1: and a half from the two and a half as well.
Speaker 1: All right, that's our disagreement. Go on to your second pick.
Speaker 2: All right. So we saw the Bears play one of
Speaker 2: the worst games I can ever remember seeing seeing a
Speaker 2: team play just totally undisciplined and awful. And even though
Speaker 2: like a team Hicks, their nose tackle just ruined, single
Speaker 2: handedly ruined the center of the Minnesota offensive line, like
Speaker 2: the Bears just repeatedly destroyed themselves against Minnesota. And I mean,
Speaker 2: this has the look of a team that has completely
Speaker 2: quit on its head coach. I mean, just playing so
Speaker 2: stupidly and like the offense is struggling. You know. They
Speaker 2: they only got their lone touchdown at the end on
Speaker 2: the last play on a nineteen yard desperation heave where
Speaker 2: I don't even think the guy actually crossed the goal line. Right,
Speaker 2: They're playing a Seattle team in Seattle that, despite being
Speaker 2: five and nine, has scored exactly as many points as
Speaker 2: they've allowed this season. They've scored two hundred and eighty two,
Speaker 2: they've allowed two hundred and eighty two. So Seattle's kind
Speaker 2: of unlucky to be a five and nine team. I
Speaker 2: think it's a better team than that. The defense has
Speaker 2: been like sneaky effective the last month and a half
Speaker 2: or so. I know Russell Wilson is not firing on
Speaker 2: all cylinders. And you know that the idea that Rishad
Speaker 2: Penny was going to be some sort of savior out
Speaker 2: of the backfield was maybe torpedoed a bit in Week fifteen.
Speaker 2: But like it's a functional offense and man like giving
Speaker 2: less than a touchdown to this just horrendous Bears outfit
Speaker 2: that has quit on its head coach in Seattle, you know,
Speaker 2: traveling all the way to the Pacific Northwest on over
Speaker 2: the holidays, Like, I can't imagine they're going to be
Speaker 2: real excited about being away from home. I'm all over
Speaker 2: Seattle on this, like absolutely six and a half points.
Speaker 2: I'd give like nine and a half points in this one.
Speaker 2: I think they're going to wipe out the Bears. Wow,
Speaker 2: they're just a much better team, Dan.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk through some of it then. First
Speaker 1: of all, the Seahawks, oddly enough, the Bears playing on
Speaker 1: a Monday night are on the longer week, right because
Speaker 1: the Seahawks had to play Tuesday, right, I'm not crazy?
Speaker 2: Right? Yes?
Speaker 1: All right, there's a little bit Oddly enough, the Bears
Speaker 1: get the extra rest in this one. The Bears were
Speaker 1: I mean, you were absolutely right in Pat. That the
Speaker 1: beauty of us sort of here is that, you know,
Speaker 1: we talk all the time, we message about football all
Speaker 1: the time during the games, and we are just going
Speaker 1: back and forth, especially with Yeats again one of our
Speaker 1: colleagues here talking about the Bears and how undisciplined they are,
Speaker 1: and their whole secondary was out and still though Pat
Speaker 1: like the defense at least put up an effort there,
Speaker 1: like those I mean they held down justin Jefferson, they
Speaker 1: held on Kirk Cousins like, the defense put up a
Speaker 1: decent effort here. And the Seahawks, who I thought and
Speaker 1: probably should have. I mean, I'm not going to say
Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side, but I feel
Speaker 1: like they should have covered the seven point spread against
Speaker 1: the Rams, Like I feel like that was sort of
Speaker 1: where but they they're so off and Russ the deep
Speaker 1: ball man, like I thought maybe he was finally coming
Speaker 1: back to form. He looked terrible in that game. The
Speaker 1: Seahawks laying almost a touchdown to anybody makes me nervous. Pat,
Speaker 1: It's so it surprises me a little bit that you
Speaker 1: think they're just going to absolutely steamroll the Bears here.
Speaker 2: Getting Locket back is going to help getting him off
Speaker 2: the COVID list. As much as Russell Wilson has struggled,
Speaker 2: I still think he's a much better quarterback than Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 2: which I think was a big I mean that interception
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins through that arm punt. I mean, like Cousins
Speaker 2: is just as I said, and it drew some iron
Speaker 2: on Twitter, Like I think Cousins is a bad quarterback
Speaker 2: masquerading is a good quarterback. And you know Russ is
Speaker 2: just a lot better, especially when he's got Tyler Lockett
Speaker 2: and he and DK have not been clicking this year,
Speaker 2: but if he is Locket, like one receiver he can
Speaker 2: totally trust and be in sync with, Like I think
Speaker 2: that's going to be enough to hit on a couple
Speaker 2: of big plays and keep the chains moving and put
Speaker 2: a points against this Bears defense. Like, yeah, the Bears.
Speaker 2: The Bears defense is not trash. They just play stupid
Speaker 2: sometimes and like some of the taunting and ridiculous league stuff,
Speaker 2: like and are we going to see that end with
Speaker 2: a team that is quit on its head coach, Like
Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean, they just there's no discipline
Speaker 2: on that team. And like that offense, Dan, I mean, oh,
Speaker 2: David Montgomery has not gotten anything going since coming back,
Speaker 2: and it's because the offensive line is terrible. You know,
Speaker 2: justin fields is as decent as the numbers might have been, Like,
Speaker 2: he is just not ready for prime time as a
Speaker 2: passer yet. Yeah, man on the road against a pretty
Speaker 2: professional defense, I just do not see them putting up
Speaker 2: more than about fourteen points seventeen points tops.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you but you think that the Seahawks then
Speaker 1: are obviously going to put up you know, twenty four
Speaker 1: maybe ish, that's.
Speaker 2: Fair, I mean fourteen or seventeen top stan and like yeah,
Speaker 2: three and are in play for sure, that's fair.
Speaker 1: That's fair. Yeah, I'm not I'm not going to join. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go against you because it's basically almost like,
Speaker 1: please don't make me back either one of these teams.
Speaker 1: But I certainly do have some I it's hard to
Speaker 1: see the Bears keeping it close in Seattle in particular
Speaker 1: with this, so I'm gonna avoid it another game. It's
Speaker 1: a lot, it's a lot of ugly stuff. This week, Pat,
Speaker 1: I think we can agree with that. I am going
Speaker 1: to continue to fade the Bengals as I did when
Speaker 1: you were on this podcast last although I did like
Speaker 1: them getting getting the two and a half or three
Speaker 1: from Denver. I'm going to fade them here though, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Ravens getting three here in
Speaker 1: Cincinnati from the Bengals. I admit I'm a little nervous
Speaker 1: about this one, but it's hard for me to see
Speaker 1: the Bengals totally blowing out the Ravens, even though they
Speaker 1: did it earlier this year. This isn't quite like a
Speaker 1: must win for either team, but it's kind of a
Speaker 1: must win, like they can each make the playoffs if
Speaker 1: they don't, but it's going to be really hard for
Speaker 1: them to be able to win the division really if
Speaker 1: you lose this game. It's the teams are pretty even overall,
Speaker 1: so I basically will start there. Baltimore sixteenth in overall DVA,
Speaker 1: the Bengals are nineteenth. I've tried to point out where
Speaker 1: the Bengals are in DVA the whole year because I
Speaker 1: think that sort of illustrates exactly how good they are.
Speaker 1: They're a very middling team. It's kind of a classic
Speaker 1: Bilo Sell high spot. The Ravens have now lost three games,
Speaker 1: three straight losses by combined four points. Okay, that's crazy
Speaker 1: four points, and they're combined three losses. The Bengals are
Speaker 1: coming off the win in Denver. When all else fails, Pat,
Speaker 1: I go with the better coach team that is the Ravens.
Speaker 1: I know John Harvon's catch a lot of crap for
Speaker 1: his two point conversions. I didn't really have a problem
Speaker 1: with any of it. But you know, again, with no secondary,
Speaker 1: with Tyler Huntley, he just keeps them in games. They
Speaker 1: play hard. They're going to play a tight game here.
Speaker 1: I don't see them getting blown out. And I don't
Speaker 1: trust Sack Tayler whatsoever. I think the Bengals are a
Speaker 1: lot of smoke and mirrors. The Ravens are going to
Speaker 1: be as motivated as possible. I know the Bengals will
Speaker 1: be too, but again, they got trounced in the previous
Speaker 1: game against the Bengals. They're pissed off about these losses.
Speaker 1: It's a revenge spot for them. I know that the
Speaker 1: Ravens secondary is horrific right now because they're so banged
Speaker 1: up and everything, like that, but since he just is
Speaker 1: not consistent. I mean, we saw that again, Pat, with
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers secondary. That was one of the
Speaker 1: things we talked about, right, how decimated it was, and
Speaker 1: the Bengals really weren't able to take advantage of that.
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon is banged up. I think he'll play, but
Speaker 1: again he's banged up in this one. You know, you
Speaker 1: look at how they've done the loss of the Jets.
Speaker 1: They were destroyed by the Browns, then they destroyed the Raiders,
Speaker 1: and they beat the crap out of the Steelers, then
Speaker 1: they get blown out by the Charters. It's just a
Speaker 1: very inconsistent young team. I don't really see them being
Speaker 1: able to win this game. It doesn't matter to me
Speaker 1: if Lamar Jackson plays, It really doesn't like. If he's
Speaker 1: healthy enough to play, that's good. It boosts their chances.
Speaker 1: But I do think a full week of practice with
Speaker 1: Tyler Helnley should be fine. The second divisional game here, Pat.
Speaker 1: This is also a theme for me second divisional games.
Speaker 1: They're always close. I'm getting almost a field goal from
Speaker 1: a team I usually like it. I lean towards the Ravens,
Speaker 1: so I'm going to take them getting the three points.
Speaker 1: I admit I'm a little uneasy about it. We were
Speaker 1: on different sides of the Bengals game last time, Pat,
Speaker 1: are we on different sides of the Bengals game this time?
Speaker 2: I think we are again. Dan. I'm I'm telling you
Speaker 2: though in advance, I'm not going to touch this game
Speaker 2: because I cannot get on the right side of a
Speaker 2: Ravens game.
Speaker 1: You have to bet them, don't you.
Speaker 2: I have to bet them for my pool every week.
Speaker 2: And I have lost the last two weeks when I
Speaker 2: thought I had made the right wager betting against them
Speaker 2: both times, only for them to furiously rally back into
Speaker 2: a couple of covers. I mean, talk about the back
Speaker 2: door being open for covers for the Ravens the last
Speaker 2: two weeks.
Speaker 1: My god, the Browns game insane.
Speaker 2: But yeah, and that's that's kind of what worries me, Dan,
Speaker 2: that they have had to like stage these big rallies
Speaker 2: just to come back and lose close games. I mean
Speaker 2: they and bless the Ravens for like continuing to play
Speaker 2: their tails off when they have been so decimated by injuries,
Speaker 2: and like they could have easily flown the white flag
Speaker 2: against the Packers last week. When the Packers. You know,
Speaker 2: they couldn't stop the Packers, but like the offense just
Speaker 2: kept fighting back, fighting back, fighting back to make it
Speaker 2: a game. And man, I just I can't back a
Speaker 2: team this decimated, especially in the secondary, when you're going
Speaker 2: up against a team with you know, one of the
Speaker 2: most potent groups of wide receivers in the league against
Speaker 2: a quarterback who I think is like I mean, if
Speaker 2: it's possible to call the former number one overall draft
Speaker 2: pick underrated, I think Burrow is kind of underrated. Like,
Speaker 2: I think he's a fantastic passer, and the numbers have
Speaker 2: not always matched just how good he's been I think recently.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have a hard time backing the Ravens
Speaker 2: with this one just being so under man. I agree
Speaker 2: that Harbaugh's a really good coach and that this team
Speaker 2: just has a lot of spirit and grit, but man, uh,
Speaker 2: like just the injuries on defense, the injury at quarterback.
Speaker 2: Huntley has been good, but like, I don't trust him
Speaker 2: to hang with Burrow in a shootout.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it, I completely get it. You know.
Speaker 1: For me, it's really like the Bengals have had opportunities
Speaker 1: to put up you know, big passing games, you know,
Speaker 1: late and again against San Francisco, and they just didn't
Speaker 1: I think, you know, with this being a divisional game,
Speaker 1: they're always close, usually, especially the second one. I think
Speaker 1: with the weak understanding, I just I trust Harbaugh to
Speaker 1: be able to have some sort of plan to keep
Speaker 1: this close. So yeah, I will go with the Ravens.
Speaker 2: The Bengals have been very jacky and high, no question
Speaker 2: about that. Another reason I don't. I don't want anything
Speaker 2: to do with this game.
Speaker 1: That's actually a really good point, because I do. I
Speaker 1: haven't always faded them. Again, I've sort of been buying
Speaker 1: into them on occasion with some of these games. Again
Speaker 1: last week as well, I liked I liked them getting
Speaker 1: points in Denver. I couldn't understand that spread, like I
Speaker 1: would have taken them on the money line for sure,
Speaker 1: But uh, in this one, I don't know. Man, this
Speaker 1: strikes me as the what's the bad one? Mister Hyde? Yeah,
Speaker 1: mister Hyde version of the doctor declas the hide But yeah,
Speaker 1: you're right. It is a little hard to handicap them
Speaker 1: because they they are like different teams sometimes when they
Speaker 1: come up all right, last pick pat what he got?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this will be quick because it's kind of covering
Speaker 2: old ground. I like the under in the New England
Speaker 2: Buffalo game forty three and a half. I mentioned my
Speaker 2: concerns about Buffalo being able to move the ball and
Speaker 2: find balance against that New England team with all that
Speaker 2: talent they have in the secondary. J C. Jackson, Devin mccordy, Dugger,
Speaker 2: like that's just so hard and being down wide receivers.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to sustain much of a
Speaker 2: running game. That's just not in the Bills offensive DNA.
Speaker 2: And you know, you express some of the concerns about
Speaker 2: mac Jones especially, And here's where you can win your bet, Dan,
Speaker 2: is if like the Bills get a lead, because we
Speaker 2: saw that mac Jones just can't bring them back. Like
Speaker 2: as soon as the Colts got that punt block touchdown
Speaker 2: to go up fourteen, nothing, Yeah, you felt like that
Speaker 2: game was over. It just kind of you know, mac
Speaker 2: Jones digging them out of a big hole. Like that's
Speaker 2: the one thing the Patriots really can't do if they're
Speaker 2: going to win a game, is get down early like that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think this one is going to play under,
Speaker 2: maybe not much under, but I don't see it flying
Speaker 2: way over the total forty three and a half. I
Speaker 2: just think it's a solid percentage play to take the
Speaker 2: under here, especially if there's any sort of weather again
Speaker 2: in New England this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I like it. I definitely like it. So
Speaker 1: I have been cold on totals like so I'm sticking
Speaker 1: with spreads for this week. But I do like it.
Speaker 1: And again last week, I really like the Bills Panthers under,
Speaker 1: and again it went over by half a point. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I know it's a chiller, but anyway, yes, I do
Speaker 1: like it as well. Again the Chris Raybond. Why does
Speaker 1: everybody hate betten unders? You're winning as soon as the
Speaker 1: game starts, So I agree with that. I'm with you
Speaker 1: on that one. And maybe I can see maybe a
Speaker 1: same game teaser there. Maybe I'll tease the total up
Speaker 1: and the Bills up as well. All Right, my last
Speaker 1: one is probably the grossest pick I've ever made, I
Speaker 1: think on this I've made some gross picks and that's
Speaker 1: what you gotta do. It's actually the Raiders they're giving
Speaker 1: one in our consensus. Ods you look at the various
Speaker 1: books Raiders against the Broncos, they are giving one and
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM. They are getting one at
Speaker 1: FanDuel and DraftKings. They are getting half a point at
Speaker 1: Fox Bet, they are giving half a point at points Bet.
Speaker 1: So it's really all over the place. At this point,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go the official consensus line is laying one.
Speaker 1: That's this is ninety percent about Drew Lock. Pat. You
Speaker 1: know Teddy Bridgwater is going to be out for this game.
Speaker 1: That is a massive downgrade to me. Even though Teddy
Speaker 1: hasn't been great this year, just Drew Lock, I've seen
Speaker 1: enough from him to understand that I don't feel great
Speaker 1: about him. The Raiders obviously beat them earlier in this
Speaker 1: year pretty substantially. This is obviously a different team. They're
Speaker 1: not playing nearly as well. There's gonna be no Darren
Speaker 1: Waller offensively, there's no Jonathan Abram Like. They're not as
Speaker 1: good as they were earlier in the year. But the
Speaker 1: Raiders always cover against the Broncos. Oddly enough aided their
Speaker 1: last ten meetings, and I realized it almost lost against
Speaker 1: a Browns team led by Nick Mullins, but they did
Speaker 1: outgain Cleveland by like one hundred yards in that game.
Speaker 1: And this game actually sets up well for the Raiders
Speaker 1: The Raiders have a lot of explosive plays. That's one
Speaker 1: of the things that they do well. The Broncos secondary
Speaker 1: is good, but they do not defend the explosive play
Speaker 1: all that well. We saw that in the first matchup.
Speaker 1: So if you're the Raiders, you just basically have to
Speaker 1: commit yourself to stopping the run. It's all you care about.
Speaker 1: Make Drew Lock beat you. And I think there's such
Speaker 1: a little chance of Drew Lock beating you, especially for
Speaker 1: a team like the Raiders. They get a lot of
Speaker 1: pressure without blitzing a ton, which I think is a
Speaker 1: good recipe for a guy like Lock. So it's uncomfortable
Speaker 1: to be backing a Raiders team that half the time
Speaker 1: just looks dead in the water here pat and especially
Speaker 1: against the Browns. But man, if I have the chance
Speaker 1: to basically just have a pickham game against Drew Lock,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna do it. So I'm going with the
Speaker 1: Raiders here at home against the Broncos, laying a point.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you feel about that one.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a layoff for me. If you force
Speaker 2: me to bet it, I'd probably agree and go with
Speaker 2: the Raiders because I have some of the same feelings
Speaker 2: about Drew Lock. I don't know, like I feel like
Speaker 2: he could maybe surprise us with a non terrible game,
Speaker 2: Like I don't think he's just I actually think there
Speaker 2: are worst backups in the league. I don't think Drew
Speaker 2: Lock should ever be considered as a potential starter for
Speaker 2: anyone ever again. But one thing that kind of worries me,
Speaker 2: like if we don't see Darren Waller come back this week, yep,
Speaker 2: Like passing offense has struggled leg I mean to the
Speaker 2: point that Derek Carr. I think in games Waller has
Speaker 2: played this year, average is like three hundred and ten
Speaker 2: yards a game passing, and then gave Darren Waller doesn't play,
Speaker 2: average is like two forty and has thrown. Yeah, it
Speaker 2: was seventeen touchdowns in eleven games with him, and like
Speaker 2: uh four and four without him, or seventeen ten and
Speaker 2: five and five with him. So it's kind of a
Speaker 2: toothless offense without Waller, which is a concern in the
Speaker 2: Denver defense is pretty credible. So I just worry that
Speaker 2: this is the kind of game that could stay within
Speaker 2: one score the entire time and just get really close.
Speaker 2: Like I understand why the spread is oscillating between you know,
Speaker 2: a point or half a point either way and might
Speaker 2: land as a pick him. But yeah, to me, this
Speaker 2: is just kind of a stay away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I get it. I'm not gonna I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna go play about it. Then over under is forty
Speaker 1: one and a half, by the way, which I don't
Speaker 1: hate the under in that one either, because I do
Speaker 1: think that points are probably going to be a little
Speaker 1: difficult to score here. That is a low one though.
Speaker 1: All right, well, recap everything at the end, Pat, But
Speaker 1: why don't we very quickly run through the remaining spreads
Speaker 1: and just give our five second take on it.
Speaker 2: Good with that, yep, let's do it.
Speaker 1: Your packers are home taking on the Browns. This is
Speaker 1: Saturday laying seven and a half.
Speaker 2: If you made me pick a side, I would probably
Speaker 2: pick my packers to cover. And you know, Dan, I'm
Speaker 2: sort of a pessimistic packers better, So you know, maybe
Speaker 2: that means a little something more that I like them.
Speaker 2: I just don't think they're going to face plants against
Speaker 2: a pretty limited offense on Christmas in Lambeau. Yep, I
Speaker 2: think I like the under more. And at first my
Speaker 2: instinct of pon seeing what is it forty six.
Speaker 1: Forty six, forty five and a half, forty six draftings,
Speaker 1: So but forty five and a half consensus.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So my first thought was over. But then
Speaker 2: the way to score on the Packers is with the
Speaker 2: big home run plays, not ball control. And that's sort
Speaker 2: of the antithesis of what the Browns do. They are
Speaker 2: a ball control team. You know, maybe the occasional deep
Speaker 2: shot to Donovan People's jones. But like, the Packers have
Speaker 2: given up a lot of forty plus yard pass plays
Speaker 2: and weirdly, they've given up one of the fewest number
Speaker 2: of twenty plus yards pass plays in the league. Like,
Speaker 2: beat them over the top, or don't beat them at all. Like,
Speaker 2: it's hard to do ball control against the Packers. And
Speaker 2: the more important thing for the under here, Dan, these
Speaker 2: are two of the slowest paced teams in the league.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Packers routinely do not snap the ball
Speaker 2: until the play clock is at zero or some people
Speaker 2: would contend past zero. There have been a few instances
Speaker 2: where they've maybe gotten away with what should have been
Speaker 2: delayed games. And the Browns are twenty ninth in pace
Speaker 2: number of seconds between snap. So this is going to
Speaker 2: be a fast moving game. They should get in under
Speaker 2: the three hour mark I would expect. And yeah, so
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think forty five and a half
Speaker 2: or forty six is going to be a pretty tall
Speaker 2: order for these two teams, even though the Packers passing
Speaker 2: game has really been hitting on all cylinders.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, obviously, I mean we have Mbs right now
Speaker 1: in the COVID list, so who knows if he's going
Speaker 1: to play. But I do think that if you're the Browns,
Speaker 1: you want to slow this game down as much as possible,
Speaker 1: right You want to you know, run the ball obviously
Speaker 1: as they always do, as much as possible, and try
Speaker 1: to slow it down, keep the ball out of Rogers hands.
Speaker 1: It lends itself to the under So I don't mind
Speaker 1: that play there. I think I probably would lean towards
Speaker 1: the pack if I had to go, but it's a
Speaker 1: stay away from me. Are you gonna get to enjoy
Speaker 1: this game on Christmas? Pat?
Speaker 2: I will for sure. I will be in a household
Speaker 2: full of Packers fans.
Speaker 1: So wonderful. I love it. Colts against the Cardinals, Pat,
Speaker 1: This is a really interesting one. They're visiting Arizona. Cardinals
Speaker 1: favored by one. I have very mixed feelings about this game. Pat.
Speaker 1: I've gone back and forth on him.
Speaker 2: I do too. It's hard to endorse the Cardinals, as
Speaker 2: bad as they looked on both sides of the ball
Speaker 2: last week against Detroit. But it's always hard to bet
Speaker 2: a team that's coming off such a bad performance. But
Speaker 2: I think one of the best bets you can make
Speaker 2: in football is to take the embarrassed, humiliated team coming
Speaker 2: off a bad loss and a team that's good enough
Speaker 2: to do something about it. And I think the Cardinals
Speaker 2: perfectly fit that criteria going up against a fat and
Speaker 2: happy Indianapolis team that's been playing really well, coming off
Speaker 2: a very convincing victory at home against the Patriots, and
Speaker 2: now they have to go on the road. So just
Speaker 2: kind of the formula here has me leaning towards Arizona,
Speaker 2: even though it does not feel good after the way
Speaker 2: they played against Detroit.
Speaker 1: That is exactly correct. That's exactly how I feel about
Speaker 1: a pat which is to say, by the way, Alvin
Speaker 1: Cook just placed on the COVID nineteen less Pat So
Speaker 1: sorry trying to get ahead of it, my friend, So
Speaker 1: you know, for that one, Yes, that's exactly how I feel.
Speaker 1: About it entirely, which is to say, yeah, a lot
Speaker 1: of it makes me like the Colts. They're playing really well.
Speaker 1: They're an underrated football team. The Cardinals look a little
Speaker 1: bit like they're in disarray. But it is such a
Speaker 1: classic Bilo cell high spot at this point that it
Speaker 1: just makes me feel like if I had to go
Speaker 1: one way, ultimately, I would go with the Cardinals, but man,
Speaker 1: it is unsettling. Giants are visiting the Eagles, a game
Speaker 1: only a mother could love. Nine and a half. Pat
Speaker 1: It's ten at DraftKings, but let's say consensus at nine
Speaker 1: and a half with the Eagles laying that in Philadelphia.
Speaker 2: A total stay away for me. I'm definitely not betting
Speaker 2: on the Joe Judge side, the depleted side, but I
Speaker 2: don't think this Eagles team is good either, and I
Speaker 2: hate them as a double digit favorite pretty much no
Speaker 2: matter who they're playing. So I'm just walking away from
Speaker 2: this game at a fast pace entirely.
Speaker 1: I mean, especially we saw what just happened when they
Speaker 1: played each other. I mean, you know, Dalen Hurts had
Speaker 1: one of the worst games I've ever seen him play.
Speaker 1: So yeah, just run away from this game. Don't watch
Speaker 1: it for any reason whatsoever, unless you're an Eagles fan,
Speaker 1: in which case hopefully you enjoy the victory. My Jets
Speaker 1: are taking on the equally putrid Jaguars laying one and
Speaker 1: a half points in New Jersey. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? So I was kind of compelled by the over
Speaker 2: or the under at first, like how are these two
Speaker 2: teams going to get to forty or forty one points?
Speaker 2: And then I realized they're two of the fastest based
Speaker 2: teams in the league. Like they operate. I think both
Speaker 2: are in the top five as far as number of
Speaker 2: seconds burned between plays. They like to they like to
Speaker 2: get after it dan like they like to fail quickly.
Speaker 2: So yeah, and like, how do you how do you
Speaker 2: play this? I mean with Sala on the COVID list,
Speaker 2: and like we thought the Jaguars might get the post
Speaker 2: or been Meyer bounced last week and it didn't happen.
Speaker 2: Do they get a delayed post Meyer bounce? Like? I
Speaker 2: think if you forced me to pick this one, I
Speaker 2: would take the Jaguars. Yes, But yeah, I'm not going
Speaker 2: to be forced to bet this game or watch this game.
Speaker 1: Correct. I will be forced to watch this game because
Speaker 1: it's the Jets, But I think the Jaguars are the
Speaker 1: right side in this game. You know, I think they're
Speaker 1: overall a better team realistically. I just do the Jets,
Speaker 1: especially without a Lodge more. There's no Corey Davis, like
Speaker 1: the Jets are just bereft of weapons. At least the
Speaker 1: Jaguars have weapons, and James Robinson might run for one
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five yards in this game.
Speaker 2: You know, I know some of the metrics stands say
Speaker 2: that the Jets are the slightly better team.
Speaker 1: I know, I know what the metrics say, but as
Speaker 1: somebody who's compelled to watch every snap of every Jets game,
Speaker 1: I can't imagine they're a better team than any other
Speaker 1: team in the NFL right now. I understand completely, and
Speaker 1: you know, but yeah, I mean, look, I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1: I think that if you have to go one way, though,
Speaker 1: I would go with the Jaguars just because goodness, give
Speaker 1: me the team getting the points in this game. That's
Speaker 1: where I'm going with Bucks are visiting Carolina. Spread's pretty
Speaker 1: consistent here at ten. Obviously you've got no Chris Godwin
Speaker 1: right now. For the Bucks, you've got no Leonard Fournette.
Speaker 1: My guess is you will have no Mike Evans in
Speaker 1: this game, but you will have Antonio Brown and you
Speaker 1: will have Ronald Jones unless there's COVID issues. So Pat,
Speaker 1: what do you do? Hear the road team laying ten
Speaker 1: in Carolina?
Speaker 2: I think the Bucks are good enough to make the
Speaker 2: necessary adjustments after they were just completely thwarted by the
Speaker 2: Saints last weekend. Like the Panthers defense is no joke,
Speaker 2: it's good. I don't know if they'll be able to
Speaker 2: bring this sort of heat on Tom Brady that the
Speaker 2: Saints were able to put on him last week. I
Speaker 2: kind of just think the Buccaneers are going to figure
Speaker 2: this out. I kind of lean on them to cover
Speaker 2: the number against you know, the Panthers offense is just
Speaker 2: so like, I can't I can't take the Panthers even
Speaker 2: with the ten points. I can't take this Panthers offense
Speaker 2: against Tom Brady. So I'm leaning Bucks here. I don't
Speaker 2: know if I'm gonna bet it or not.
Speaker 1: Yeah I would, I'm not going to bet it, but
Speaker 1: assuming that COVID doesn't wreck everything again, all all recommendations
Speaker 1: are assuming COVID does a recornything. I would go with
Speaker 1: the Bucks because I do think you're going to see
Speaker 1: a bounce back performance here. You know that the Panthers
Speaker 1: offensively are not going to be able to put up
Speaker 1: that many points no matter what goes on. You've got
Speaker 1: DJ Moore little banged up. But also you saw even
Speaker 1: the Bucks with Jones and Fournette before he went out,
Speaker 1: they were able to run the ball pretty well against
Speaker 1: a very difficult Saints run defense. So I do think
Speaker 1: that they'll worse, come to worse. He'll be able to
Speaker 1: do that, but you get Brady a week to prepare
Speaker 1: for these guys, especially with Brown back, with Gronk, even
Speaker 1: you know, guy like Tyler Johnson. I feel like offensively
Speaker 1: they're going to bounce back and they'll want to make
Speaker 1: a statement here, so I will go with them. Lions
Speaker 1: are getting five and a half right now in Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Jared Goff is on the COVID list. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: I know, Pat, what you want to do about that.
Speaker 1: Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn't. So I don't know
Speaker 1: how you can handicap this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly it. And it's a weird line Atlanta
Speaker 2: minus six and plus one hundred I was seeing this
Speaker 2: morning at DraftKings. So even money for Atlanta to cover
Speaker 2: a six point spread, Like, you can't feel good about
Speaker 2: Atlanta covering a six point spread against anyone, But I
Speaker 2: guess my biggest concern about betting Atlanta is that their
Speaker 2: offense can just be wrecked by a good pass rush.
Speaker 2: And I think Detroit's pass rush is ranked like thirty
Speaker 2: first by PFF. So maybe the Falcons are the right
Speaker 2: side on this one, even though I think the Lions
Speaker 2: are going to get respect from betters because they've been
Speaker 2: a frisky underdog lately and obviously they were really frisky
Speaker 2: against the Cardinals last week. But if I had to
Speaker 2: play this, I think I would play it on the
Speaker 2: Atlanta side and lay the points. As really uncomfortable as
Speaker 2: that feels, I think that might be the right bet.
Speaker 1: I'm really excited, uh for an excuse to not have
Speaker 1: to bet or watch this game because of the COVID situation.
Speaker 1: But yeah, as of right now, I take the Falcons
Speaker 1: because I do think that that they have the ability
Speaker 1: to to put up some big numbers of everything goes right,
Speaker 1: and you're right that lines don't get a lot of pressure,
Speaker 1: so that does.
Speaker 2: I would say, I would say, for sure, Dan, I
Speaker 2: like I would not want to play this one until
Speaker 2: we knew whether was going because golf has been like
Speaker 2: sneakily good in the last four weeks, been pretty good.
Speaker 1: Correct, the Rams are laying three in Minnesota? Who now
Speaker 1: maybe down Dalvin Cook. I have no idea with the
Speaker 1: with the protocols pat like I I don't know what
Speaker 1: being placed on the COVID list on the absolutely means
Speaker 1: for Sunday. There was no tweet about him being ruled
Speaker 1: out or anything like that with Dalvin Cook. Without Dalvin
Speaker 1: Cook three points in Minnesota? What do you think?
Speaker 2: And this was already a weird line because the Rams
Speaker 2: were two and a half this morning. Last I checked
Speaker 2: before this show, Rams were two and a half point
Speaker 2: favorites on the road at Minnesota, but minus won twenty
Speaker 2: five at Draftking.
Speaker 1: So that's the difference that Draft Kings juiced up minus
Speaker 1: uh minus two and a half. It's minus one ten
Speaker 1: and three at most other books. But that's why it
Speaker 1: was minus one twenty five for it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm definitely not betting the Vikings here. If
Speaker 2: I play this one, it's gonna be the Rams. And
Speaker 2: like the Dalvin Cook thing might drive the line enough
Speaker 2: that I just don't want to take it cause, like,
Speaker 2: I mean, I have a little respect for the Vikings.
Speaker 2: I think they're a decent team, but like they're two
Speaker 2: of their most glaring weaknesses the center of their offensive line.
Speaker 2: I mean, they couldn't draft block a Keem Nicks last week.
Speaker 2: How are they gonna do against Aaron Donald this week?
Speaker 2: My guess is probably not. Well. Yeah, and their defensive backfield,
Speaker 2: which is like so bad. They just cut for Shud
Speaker 2: Breeland and I mean not that Breeland was any good,
Speaker 2: but right, like that's just a disaster. And you know,
Speaker 2: how are they gonna stop Cooper Cupp right, Van Jefferson
Speaker 2: and Odell Beckham. So I do think the Rams are
Speaker 2: gonna win this game. I don't know if they're gonna
Speaker 2: blow the Vikings out in Minnesota though, that's another story.
Speaker 2: And I'm kind of depends where the line winds up.
Speaker 2: But I'm probably not gonna be too interested in playing
Speaker 2: this one.
Speaker 1: So I think looking at a pat it's like when
Speaker 1: I just take a step back and look at it,
Speaker 1: it strikes me as like it strikes me as the
Speaker 1: right play absent Dalvin Cook, would be the really ugly
Speaker 1: hold your nose Vikings play here getting points because they
Speaker 1: always keep games close. The Rams are coming off a
Speaker 1: short week shorter we again than even the Viking somehow
Speaker 1: again for the second straight time. Rams sort of in
Speaker 1: a cell high sort of momentier, and it would be
Speaker 1: one like I'd hate to make, but I think over
Speaker 1: the long terms it's probably you know plus ev, but
Speaker 1: I couldn't. I wouldn't actually make that bet right it
Speaker 1: strikes He's like, this seems like maybe a spot because
Speaker 1: everything looks like the Rams are a much better team.
Speaker 1: It's the type of game that the Vikings just randomly
Speaker 1: show up for and do, but it's just to stay
Speaker 1: away from me, and Dalvin Cook gives me the excuse.
Speaker 1: So I'm very excited to do that. The Chiefs who
Speaker 1: have everyone on the COVID list already and the only
Speaker 1: one we know who's out is Harrison Butker, so it'll
Speaker 1: be Elliott Fry kicking. So take that into account. They
Speaker 1: are still links seven and a half right now, pretty
Speaker 1: much across the board to the Steelers in Kansas City.
Speaker 1: I think I'm expecting them to get back Tyreek Hill
Speaker 1: and Travis Kelsey, by the way, like they went on
Speaker 1: the COVID list early the new protocols maybe, but who
Speaker 1: really knows. What do you do with this one?
Speaker 2: Pat, I almost feel like the line is saying they
Speaker 2: expect Tyreek Hill and Travis Chelsea to come back early,
Speaker 2: and if they do. I like the Chiefs at this point,
Speaker 2: like I have kind of felt all year that the
Speaker 2: Steelers are a bad team, portraying a five hundred team,
Speaker 2: a mediocre team, and the Chiefs have been playing their
Speaker 2: best football of the season. Their defense has gone from
Speaker 2: just horrendous in that first month to actually really good,
Speaker 2: and I think a lot of the metrics show that
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are now. I think they're the odds on
Speaker 2: favorite now to win the Super Bowl in a lot
Speaker 2: of spots, and I can understand why with that defense
Speaker 2: playing well, and we knew Mahomes was eventually going to
Speaker 2: get his act together. I don't know if we can
Speaker 2: say that he's all the way there, but we've seen
Speaker 2: a couple of his ceiling games in the last three
Speaker 2: weeks or so. I think Kansas City is going to
Speaker 2: cover this if they get their past catchers back, Like
Speaker 2: if Hill and Kelsey play, Assuming no other major COVID
Speaker 2: scratches in this game, nothing that really moves the line
Speaker 2: off of seven and a half and a half, I
Speaker 2: would lay those points to Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's probably right, assuming that they come back.
Speaker 1: But man, this is so crazy. I'm just saying, like,
Speaker 1: you know, betting right now and everything like that is
Speaker 1: just nuts.
Speaker 2: Can I can I give you the like it's weird
Speaker 2: that we get it as a slow drip, but like
Speaker 2: you know that we're going to lose basically two percent
Speaker 2: of the player population this week. It is like the
Speaker 2: Leftovers on HBO, the HBO series where two percent of
Speaker 2: the Earth's population just disappeared. And that's what's happening in
Speaker 2: the NFL every week, except rather than all disappearing at once,
Speaker 2: it's a slow drip, right, a coffee maker, And it's
Speaker 2: just weird. And I can't even imagine what it would
Speaker 2: be like to work in a book making operation, right,
Speaker 2: and like having to tweak these lines like every hour
Speaker 2: on the hour as things change, like just crazy.
Speaker 1: I mean minute by minute, right, because God forbid, somebody
Speaker 1: sees something. But again, they always have advanced info at least,
Speaker 1: but you've got to be on the ball with them.
Speaker 1: Cowboys are home against Washington Lank ten and a half
Speaker 1: on Sunday Night.
Speaker 2: Yeah, weird that we've seen Dak not play very well lately,
Speaker 2: and it's kind of been a sustained thing over like
Speaker 2: a five game period. I think there was a stat
Speaker 2: where Dak has averaged There have been seventeen games in
Speaker 2: Dak's career where he has averaged less than six point
Speaker 2: yards six point zero yards per pass attempt, and five
Speaker 2: of them have been since the start of November. Like,
Speaker 2: he is playing terribly, but he played poorly when they
Speaker 2: played Washington in Week fourteen. He was twenty two of
Speaker 2: thirty nine for two hundred and eleven yards, one touchdown,
Speaker 2: two interceptions, averaged five point four yards per pass attempt,
Speaker 2: and they won by seventeen points on the road. So
Speaker 2: I'm definitely not playing Washington in this one. But I
Speaker 2: just don't know if I can back the Cowboys with
Speaker 2: their passing game not quite functional. The Dallas d is
Speaker 2: playing great though. If I'm betting this, I'm definitely betting Dallas.
Speaker 1: I'm staying far away from it, man, like they just
Speaker 1: I have trouble like figuring out the Dallas offense because
Speaker 1: that really is not playing well at all. But I
Speaker 1: just can't back Washington and now Tara Heineke did come
Speaker 1: off the covid lest day, but still I'm just saying
Speaker 1: a way, especially with Antonio Gibson banged up, I don't know.
Speaker 1: Last game Monday night, the Dolphins visiting New Orleans, we
Speaker 1: just got it now. The line went from Saints minus
Speaker 1: three to It looks like for the most part the
Speaker 1: Dolphins are laying either one or one and a half here,
Speaker 1: and it does sound like Book is going to be
Speaker 1: the starter.
Speaker 2: What's the total?
Speaker 1: Now, let me check that out for you, all right,
Speaker 1: take a guess, bat. That's what Joe and I like
Speaker 1: to do on the Look Aheads. We take the guests
Speaker 1: on the total. I'm gonna see I can tell you
Speaker 1: what it was if you want. Before I tell you
Speaker 1: what it was, was it thirty nine before it was
Speaker 1: thirty nine?
Speaker 2: Yes, I'll say thirty five and a half.
Speaker 1: It's only thirty seven right now, only thirty seven. But
Speaker 1: my guess is they gotta they gotta slowly readjust it right,
Speaker 1: They've got to slowly figure it out. Thirty seven is
Speaker 1: the latest total.
Speaker 2: This is a week where generally I don't want to
Speaker 2: lock anything in Dan, but I might have to jug
Speaker 2: down that under if I can lock it in at
Speaker 2: thirty seven. And like I, when I saw that initial total,
Speaker 2: I wondered if that was just the recency bias of
Speaker 2: having seen the Saints pass rush just completely smother Brady
Speaker 2: last week, a game where Brady was clearly, you know,
Speaker 2: also frazzled by losing like his top receivers. But man,
Speaker 2: I don't know that's uh, I'm I'm probably just laying
Speaker 2: off this one. Like I've never really been much of
Speaker 2: a believer in the Dolphins, I've one of the teams
Speaker 2: I've had a hard time figuring out the entire season. Sure,
Speaker 2: And yeah, and the Saints are just such a moving
Speaker 2: target now with their quarterback woes.
Speaker 1: Just stay away, I go. Or if you're gonna bet it,
Speaker 1: wait until Monday night, you know how your week went,
Speaker 1: see what the COVID situation is, and then do it. Man, goodness, gracious, don't. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there are a few bets who might want to lock
Speaker 1: in early. This might be one of them, though, Pat
Speaker 1: with the with the under, I'm with you on that one,
Speaker 1: all right, Pat, let's go over your bets one more time.
Speaker 1: If you remember them, tell me what they were so
Speaker 1: you could start it. Then I'll give mine, sure.
Speaker 2: So I like the Chargers ling ten on the road
Speaker 2: against the Texans. I like Seattle, which is of this morning,
Speaker 2: was minus six and a half against the hapless Chicago
Speaker 2: Bears in Seattle. And I like the under in that
Speaker 2: Buffalo Patriots game. That is going to be such a
Speaker 2: raucous event at your holiday gathering then, and that was
Speaker 2: a forty three and a half last I saw.
Speaker 1: Well, I look forward to playing this podcast for my
Speaker 1: father and brother in law. I will take with my lead.
Speaker 1: There you go, Billy and Kevin. Bill's getting two and
Speaker 1: a half from the Patriots, the Ravens getting three from
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I'm not kidding. The consensus line since
Speaker 1: we started this has now flipped to the Raiders getting one.
Speaker 1: But I'll take the Raiders giving one to the Broncos.
Speaker 1: So that's gonna do it. I hope everyone has a
Speaker 1: wonderful Christmas. To everybody who celebrates, enjoy the football regardless,
Speaker 1: Enjoy your Sunday. Unless you have an under on the
Speaker 1: Saints Miami game, probably wait as long as possible to
Speaker 1: place in your bets. And in the meantime, again, everybody,
Speaker 1: have a wonderful weekend. We'll be back doing this next
Speaker 1: week again. We'll probably take a look aheadline, hopefully without
Speaker 1: all the COVID news and all the all the holiday stuff,
Speaker 1: but we'll talk to you then