WEBVTT - Week 16 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 144)

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<v Speaker 1>Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought

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<v Speaker 1>to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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<v Speaker 1>Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is

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<v Speaker 1>Week sixteen. We did not do the look Aheadlines podcast

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<v Speaker 1>this week early on just because a it's the holidays,

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<v Speaker 1>everybody's traveling and be the games and end until you know,

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<v Speaker 1>late night on Tuesday. So this is the only podcast

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<v Speaker 1>for this week, but it is our best bets for

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<v Speaker 1>Week sixteen at the NFL season. With me to do

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<v Speaker 1>that is Pat Fitzmorris, senior editor here at Betting Pros.

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<v Speaker 1>Find them on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat. Happy holidays.

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<v Speaker 1>How you doing?

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<v Speaker 2>Happy Holidays? Dan, I'm doing well. Maybe there will be

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<v Speaker 2>a few more people interested in playing these games this

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<v Speaker 2>week since there have been some eliminations unfortunately in our

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<v Speaker 2>fantasy leagues.

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<v Speaker 1>That's true, that's true. Yes, our fantasy leagues are slowly

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<v Speaker 1>whittling down. Thankfully, the betting landscape doesn't change. Although we

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<v Speaker 1>can be as honest as possible, right Pat, this is

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<v Speaker 1>an unconventional time right now in football, and there are

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of bets, Pat, that I want to make

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment and a couple that I have, but

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<v Speaker 1>we have to try lightly right because of the COVID

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<v Speaker 1>situation and everything that's happening. So we'll give out recommendations.

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<v Speaker 1>But I wouldn't run out to bet anything necessarily just yet.

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<v Speaker 1>I would wait as long as possible to see what

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID situations are, certainly for various teams and even

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<v Speaker 1>teams again that we don't know about yet. Just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll have to see what may come in the next

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<v Speaker 1>couple of days. But Pat our last podcast we were

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<v Speaker 1>on for the best bets. We were on opposite sides

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<v Speaker 1>of a game, as you well know, and that game

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<v Speaker 1>turned out to be I don't know if both of

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<v Speaker 1>us were right or neither one of us was right.

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<v Speaker 1>The forty nine ers wound up winning that game, so

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<v Speaker 1>I wound up being on the right side. So we'll

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<v Speaker 1>see whether or not we'll be joining forces on some

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<v Speaker 1>games this week, or whether we'll have some difference of opinions.

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<v Speaker 1>But if so, I look forward to that part. Remember

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<v Speaker 1>what this one is, guys. This is our three best

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<v Speaker 1>bets of the weekend moneyline spreads totals whatever. We'll quickly

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<v Speaker 1>run through the remaining spreads games that we don't talk

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<v Speaker 1>about a couple of things before we start. Hopefully you

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<v Speaker 1>are watching this podcast as well or listening to it

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<v Speaker 1>on our podcast feed, but you should subscribe to our

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. That

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<v Speaker 1>really helps us out if you listen to this podcast

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<v Speaker 1>at all, Subscribing to the channel is an easy way

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<v Speaker 1>to show your support, and we're also giving away a

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<v Speaker 1>sign sag on Barkley helmet. By the way, if you

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<v Speaker 1>do subscribe, then go to Bettingpros dot com slash helmet.

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<v Speaker 1>And also let me remind you about the latest offer

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<v Speaker 1>from bet MGM. New customers bet ten dollars win two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars if the team you bet on scores a touchdown.

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<v Speaker 2>That's it.

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<v Speaker 1>Ten dollars win two hundred dollars in free bets. It's

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<v Speaker 1>bet MGM Juice one hundred. Brief recap of last week

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<v Speaker 1>read Wallach went two and one. He hit on the

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<v Speaker 1>Steelers getting one and a half from the Titans and

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<v Speaker 1>the Bengals getting two and a half, but he missed

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<v Speaker 1>on the Patriots getting two and a half from the Colts.

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<v Speaker 1>I went one and two. I hit on the Jets

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<v Speaker 1>getting ten points from the Dolphins. Pardon me, pat got that?

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<v Speaker 1>I bet on the Jets. How about that? We went crazy?

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<v Speaker 1>I know that was the bet I hit. I missed

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<v Speaker 1>on the Packers laying five and a half to the

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<v Speaker 1>Ravens and the Bills Panthers under forty four and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe the total went to forty five there and

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<v Speaker 1>the Packers pat right like I got it early. I said,

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<v Speaker 1>bet it early. The spread was I don't know nine

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<v Speaker 1>or something with the time of clothes, maybe went down

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<v Speaker 1>the seven or whatever. So it's like, yes, got the

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<v Speaker 1>best of the number. Still no good, but your Packers

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<v Speaker 1>did win. Congratulations there, okay. Oh by the way, Pat

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<v Speaker 1>before we get going, I don't know whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>you are you were planning to take the Saints, but

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<v Speaker 1>Taysom Hill has just been placed in the reserve COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nightteen oh, and the team is planning to start ian

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<v Speaker 1>book this weekend. So yeah, so you can deal with

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<v Speaker 1>that if you were, were you planning to take that

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<v Speaker 1>game at all? I was.

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<v Speaker 2>I was anxious to talk about the total with you,

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<v Speaker 2>which is already at thirty nine. I mean, what's it

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<v Speaker 2>gonna be nowt twenty nine after like, this is gonna

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<v Speaker 2>be one of the lowest totals of the season.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh my goodness. And because Trevor STI means also out,

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, this is this is something. Okay, we'll figure

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<v Speaker 1>this all out later, but in time. In the meantime, Bat,

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about our best bets again. Anything you want, money, line, spread, total,

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<v Speaker 1>whatever you want. You're the guest on this podcast, Pat,

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<v Speaker 1>so I defer to you here. Please give me your

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<v Speaker 1>favorite bet for the weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, let's start off with You know, I hate

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<v Speaker 2>generally taking double digit road favorites, but I'm going to

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<v Speaker 2>start with the LA Chargers at the Houston Texans laying

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<v Speaker 2>ten and I the Chargers, they obviously need this. They're

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<v Speaker 2>eight and six, They're in the thick of the wild

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<v Speaker 2>card hunt. They can not afford an untimely stumble against

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<v Speaker 2>a team that, by every metric that I have seen

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<v Speaker 2>is regarded as the worst in the NFL, whether it's

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<v Speaker 2>a you know, strength like a power ranking thing by

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Massy Peabody or Sagarin or whoever it is,

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<v Speaker 2>or the PFF grades like everyone as Houston it's the

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<v Speaker 2>worst team in the league, even though they've managed to

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<v Speaker 2>stumble into three wins this year. But I just don't

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<v Speaker 2>think they have enough to hold off the Chargers and

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<v Speaker 2>keep this one close. The Chargers will have had some

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<v Speaker 2>extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night in

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<v Speaker 2>Week fifteen. Got a lot of firepower on offense. I

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<v Speaker 2>mean it's not just Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler like

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<v Speaker 2>Mike Williams. I know it was guite news on COVID, right,

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<v Speaker 2>Josh Palmer is still a very good third wide out.

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<v Speaker 2>He's been a nice rookie surprise. So I think they

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<v Speaker 2>have too much firepower and just will overwhelm the Texans

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<v Speaker 2>here in the one flaw the Chargers have dan is

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<v Speaker 2>their run defense and maybe they're tackling and this is

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<v Speaker 2>the one team in the league that just can't do

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<v Speaker 2>any damage to them on the ground with Rex Burghead

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<v Speaker 2>and David John like the Texans running game as a joke,

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<v Speaker 2>so they are not going to be able to seize

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<v Speaker 2>on that one weakness the Chargers might have.

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<v Speaker 1>Does it matter to you whatsoever about the current COVID

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<v Speaker 1>situation with them, with the fact that both Austin Eckler

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<v Speaker 1>we mentioned Geyton, but Eckler's on the COVID list and

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<v Speaker 1>Brandon Cooks is also on the COVID. I mean, if

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<v Speaker 1>Cooks is out right, I mean whatever, But does that

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<v Speaker 1>matter to you whatsoever? If either or both play?

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<v Speaker 2>It doesn't know because I mean they've they've got a

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<v Speaker 2>capable I guess running back by committee if Eckler is

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<v Speaker 2>not cleared with Justin Jackson, who actually looked good against

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<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs last year. You know, I don't think Joshua

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<v Speaker 2>Kelly is any great running back. I don't know about

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<v Speaker 2>Larry Rowntree, who would probably be active, but I just

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<v Speaker 2>don't think it's gonna matter. Like I think they would

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<v Speaker 2>be able to do more damage through the air and

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<v Speaker 2>have just enough of a running game to provide some balance.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So if I have to go on this game,

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<v Speaker 1>I would be with you because I do think that

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<v Speaker 1>the likelihood is that the Chargers cover this. It's really

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<v Speaker 1>tough for me to get a road team, regardless of

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<v Speaker 1>anything else, laying you know, double digit points. But this

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<v Speaker 1>does strike me as a game where you're right. This

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<v Speaker 1>is not a game where the Chargers can sort of

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<v Speaker 1>come out and be flat. You know, they have to

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<v Speaker 1>come out. They have to keep their foot on the

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<v Speaker 1>gas pedal. They have to put this game away and

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<v Speaker 1>not mess around. The extra rest is a big deal

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<v Speaker 1>at this point in the season, where everybody's exhaust and

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<v Speaker 1>everything like that. They won't have Joey Bosa, right, he's

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<v Speaker 1>declared out I think right for this game already because

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<v Speaker 1>of the cop believe so, and because I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>on back, so I think he's already out. So that

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<v Speaker 1>does obviously hurt the defense, but I don't think it matters,

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<v Speaker 1>so I would lean towards you. But again, a road

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<v Speaker 1>favorite of double digit points, which is really tough for

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<v Speaker 1>me to make my favorites. So I'm interested that you are,

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<v Speaker 1>But this is not one we'll fight about. Would you

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<v Speaker 1>like me to give you one that we're gonna fight about,

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<v Speaker 1>pat Let's do it, Dan, that's the Bills visiting the Patriots,

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<v Speaker 1>laying two and a half. Now Tomorrow is Christmas Eve.

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<v Speaker 1>I will be spending it with my wife's family and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to play this for my father in law

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<v Speaker 1>with whom I'm very close and my brother in law,

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<v Speaker 1>who I'm also very close with, and I imagine that

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<v Speaker 1>they will come out and tell me I'm an idiot

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<v Speaker 1>for taking the Bills getting the two and a half,

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<v Speaker 1>which is fine. Bill and Kevin, I hope you're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to this. I love you, guys. I hope you have

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<v Speaker 1>a great day today. But you're gonna lose this game.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Bills are gonna are gonna win this

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<v Speaker 1>game here, pat like, I would take them on the

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<v Speaker 1>money line, but you know, moneyline, BET's what I mean.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll sprinkle on the money line because if you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to take anybody as a short, you know, dog, you

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<v Speaker 1>might as well take them on the money line as well.

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<v Speaker 1>But my official pick will be two and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>There are some twos out there. I'll take the two

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<v Speaker 1>and a half. Obviously, we have some issues with the

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<v Speaker 1>Bills right now. They've got you know, Tredavius Whites out

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<v Speaker 1>for the year. There's no Cole Beasley in this game

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<v Speaker 1>because he tests a positive and he's unvaccinated. I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>assume Emmanuel Sanders isn't gonna play here. Pat Both teams

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<v Speaker 1>here are are good and pretty even. I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>when you look at the metrics, right, billse are you know,

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<v Speaker 1>third in overall DVOA. Pats are fifth on defense, the

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<v Speaker 1>Bills are second in EPA per play, the Patriots are third.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm just I'm tired of like I haven't been

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<v Speaker 1>the whole year pat But I just I'm not trusting

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<v Speaker 1>Mac Jones basically to be able to win these types

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<v Speaker 1>of games.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>I know they beat the Bills in the windiest game

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<v Speaker 1>in the history of mankind where he threw three passes,

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<v Speaker 1>but you see what happens if he is forced to

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<v Speaker 1>put the game on his shoulders, like we saw against

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<v Speaker 1>the Colts, it's gonna be really difficult for him to

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<v Speaker 1>do that. They don't have the playmakers in the receiving game,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's a rookie. And we saw how much success

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<v Speaker 1>the Patriots had running the ball against the Bills, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>but even then, pat they still only scored fourteen points

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<v Speaker 1>despite the fact that they could run the ball at

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<v Speaker 1>will in that game. Had the Bills had any semblance

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<v Speaker 1>of a running game, or had they even just let

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<v Speaker 1>Josh Allen throw the ball regularly, even a little more,

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<v Speaker 1>even in that wind, they would have won the game.

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<v Speaker 1>So Damian Harris is hopefully going to play here, but

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<v Speaker 1>Kendrick Bourne's on the COVID list, Nelson Aguiler is probably out,

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<v Speaker 1>and kill Harry maybe out. The Bills have issues on

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<v Speaker 1>the offensive line again with COVID John Feliciano Deon Dawkins.

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<v Speaker 1>The Bills are just a better team here. I think

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<v Speaker 1>pat like in a vacuum, they're a better team. It's

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<v Speaker 1>really as simple as that. Too evenly matched teams. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a second divisional game, so you assume it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be tough. I'm just going to take the underdog and

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<v Speaker 1>the one that doesn't have the rookie quarterback here, especially

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<v Speaker 1>if they're getting points. So I imagine that you have

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<v Speaker 1>a differing opinion, and I would like to hear it.

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<v Speaker 2>I do well, let me be your sparring partner before

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<v Speaker 2>your main event with Bill and Kevin.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you do it?

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<v Speaker 2>Chris? The way that is not good at I should

0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:06.120
<v Speaker 2>have on my podcast this week, I said the Wolf

0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:08.360
<v Speaker 2>of Rodo Street. He's a good Boston guy. I've been

0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:12.120
<v Speaker 2>paying more careful attention so I could mimic more accurately.

0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.199
<v Speaker 2>But I don't know if my argument is going to

0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:21.720
<v Speaker 2>be quite as thorough as yours. But in that first meeting,

0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:28.240
<v Speaker 2>we saw the Patriots just abandoned the running game, say

0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:33.480
<v Speaker 2>we're gonna run this and uh, the Bills, oh sorry,

0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:36.040
<v Speaker 2>abandoned the passing game, throw three passes, run it down

0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:42.040
<v Speaker 2>their throats for being an outdoor buffalo team. The Bills

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:47.720
<v Speaker 2>are a finesse team. It totally blies their location geographically,

0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.960
<v Speaker 2>but they are a finesse team. And I think the

0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:55.800
<v Speaker 2>Patriots like took pride in just beating the hell out

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.480
<v Speaker 2>of them in that game physically two weeks ago and

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:00.360
<v Speaker 2>winning the game that way, And I think they're going

0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:02.920
<v Speaker 2>to try to play that way again and run and

0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.120
<v Speaker 2>they have to again here the first time it was

0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:10.440
<v Speaker 2>the wind. This time it's their complete shortage of wide receivers.

0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.400
<v Speaker 2>I guess Jacoby Myers is basically like the only healthy

0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.240
<v Speaker 2>receiver they have. They're going to line up two tight

0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:20.120
<v Speaker 2>ends run it probably sixty five percent of the time

0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:22.280
<v Speaker 2>against the Bills, and the Bills don't have a great

0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:26.679
<v Speaker 2>run dye. You know they it's either going to be

0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 2>a lot of Ramandre Stevenson or a Stevenson Harris combo,

0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.640
<v Speaker 2>and I think they're going to have some success as

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.720
<v Speaker 2>they did before. I mean, they didn't hit many long runs,

0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:39.840
<v Speaker 2>but they moved the chains and they got that one

0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 2>long run from Damien Harris for the touchdown. And then defensively,

0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:48.200
<v Speaker 2>like I love this Patriots pass defense, Like I think

0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:51.360
<v Speaker 2>it's the best pass defense in the NFL. Their secondary

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:54.760
<v Speaker 2>is just you know, air tights. I mean, maybe maybe

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 2>Jalen Mills isn't like the best cornerback, but other than that,

0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:00.720
<v Speaker 2>I mean it's there's no weakness in that secondary, and

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:04.800
<v Speaker 2>they can put pressure on quarterbacks with only four which

0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.280
<v Speaker 2>is kind of key against the Bills because that stops

0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:10.839
<v Speaker 2>like if you have your linebackers staying home, like Josh

0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 2>Allen probably isn't going to do quite as much damage

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 2>as he could. Although you know, last game he I

0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 2>don't can't remember how many rushing yards he had against them.

0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.959
<v Speaker 2>Did he go over a hundred against the No? Against

0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.360
<v Speaker 2>I can't remember how how many rushing yards he had

0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:35.840
<v Speaker 2>against them, Yeah, yeah, two weeks ago. I can't Anyway,

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 2>I don't know. And like Devin Singletary. The Bills have

0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 2>had this inconsistent running game all year. I like that

0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:48.200
<v Speaker 2>they've basically narrowed it down to having Devin Singletary be

0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.839
<v Speaker 2>their main guy, or at least we think so, because

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:54.000
<v Speaker 2>they've had faked us on their backs before. But like,

0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:56.840
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if they're going to have enough to

0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:01.320
<v Speaker 2>just consistently. It's just not the Bills m to really

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.960
<v Speaker 2>like pound away with a running back. You know, they

0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 2>don't win games that way. So yeah, I have some

0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:12.000
<v Speaker 2>concerns about their ability to consistently move the ball on

0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:14.680
<v Speaker 2>this Patriots defense, which is so good against the pass,

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.559
<v Speaker 2>and I think the Patriots are just a more physical

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:21.240
<v Speaker 2>game being at home outdoors in Foxborough. Like I just

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.000
<v Speaker 2>I kind of like the Pats in this one. Dan,

0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 2>It's not a best bet, but I am going to

0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 2>be putting something on the Pats laying the points.

0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 1>All right, So good. We can use this for our

0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 1>Sunday night podcast again, we do a fancy podcast on

0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 1>Sunday nights. So this will again whoever wins this game,

0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:38.920
<v Speaker 1>I will say pat will be able to kind of

0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:41.160
<v Speaker 1>lout it over the other one. But I will say

0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 1>that even with that game, which by the way had

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 1>one like however long Damien Harris's touchdown run was early.

0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 2>On sixty eight or something.

0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>They moved the ball by the way, I thinksh Allen

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 1>had thirty nine yards rushing or something or thing. Okay,

0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:00.200
<v Speaker 1>So even with that, even with them being a to

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 1>move the ball at will, which was just crazy, right, Like,

0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 1>they literally ran the same play over and over again

0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 1>and the Bills can have them. They had fourteen points,

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 1>like they this was not sort of a thing where

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:13.600
<v Speaker 1>they could put up points at will because they can't

0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:15.640
<v Speaker 1>pass the ball and they're not gonna be or at

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:17.920
<v Speaker 1>least in that game with the win. I don't expect

0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:19.360
<v Speaker 1>them to be able to do it here. Again, as

0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned Jacobe Myers and Hunter Henry. Fine, but I

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:27.120
<v Speaker 1>do think that the Bills newfound running game, and you're right,

0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:29.920
<v Speaker 1>we've been headfaked before. But I think the difference here

0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 1>is that they understand they have to have a semblance

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 1>of a running game. They have to because otherwise if

0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.640
<v Speaker 1>they're just sort of gonna be this passing offense where

0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.400
<v Speaker 1>there are down weapons and where teams have sort of

0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 1>adapted to them. And Josh Allen isn't playing quite as

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:46.720
<v Speaker 1>well as he did last year. I think they're gonna

0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 1>be able to attack them. And again, even in that game,

0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:50.960
<v Speaker 1>what was the final score that on? Fourteen to ten?

0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Is that right? So yeah, they missed you know, if

0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.800
<v Speaker 1>you know Tyler Bass doesn't miss a you know, twenty

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 1>yards field goal or anything like that, they probably win

0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.120
<v Speaker 1>that game, you know, in that game. I just think

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:03.760
<v Speaker 1>they're a better team.

0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 2>Man.

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 1>Now again, I have been fading two teams this most

0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 1>of the year. Not always sometimes I back them, but

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.320
<v Speaker 1>most of the year Patriots have been one of them.

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.400
<v Speaker 1>Has not always worked out, certainly. I'll talk about the

0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:19.760
<v Speaker 1>other one here with my second pick. But I really

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:21.640
<v Speaker 1>like this betpat I really do. And by the way,

0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.640
<v Speaker 1>assuming that everything stays the same, like, I will be

0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.160
<v Speaker 1>happy to also tease up the Bills here to eight

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:28.840
<v Speaker 1>and a half. This is a prime teaser piece for

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.400
<v Speaker 1>me to bilt like that. I don't see the Patriots

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.000
<v Speaker 1>winning this game by ten points, like under any circumstances,

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think at the very least it'll be

0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:38.800
<v Speaker 1>a close game, maybe they win by three. If that happens,

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:40.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't think so. I think the Bills went out right,

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.800
<v Speaker 1>But I'll probably also tease the Bills up to eight

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 1>and a half from the two and a half as well.

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 1>All right, that's our disagreement. Go on to your second pick.

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 2>All right. So we saw the Bears play one of

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:55.520
<v Speaker 2>the worst games I can ever remember seeing seeing a

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.600
<v Speaker 2>team play just totally undisciplined and awful. And even though

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 2>like a team Hicks, their nose tackle just ruined, single

0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:07.960
<v Speaker 2>handedly ruined the center of the Minnesota offensive line, like

0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 2>the Bears just repeatedly destroyed themselves against Minnesota. And I mean,

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 2>this has the look of a team that has completely

0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:22.439
<v Speaker 2>quit on its head coach. I mean, just playing so

0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:29.119
<v Speaker 2>stupidly and like the offense is struggling. You know. They

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.040
<v Speaker 2>they only got their lone touchdown at the end on

0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 2>the last play on a nineteen yard desperation heave where

0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:40.040
<v Speaker 2>I don't even think the guy actually crossed the goal line. Right,

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:46.359
<v Speaker 2>They're playing a Seattle team in Seattle that, despite being

0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 2>five and nine, has scored exactly as many points as

0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 2>they've allowed this season. They've scored two hundred and eighty two,

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.320
<v Speaker 2>they've allowed two hundred and eighty two. So Seattle's kind

0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:58.800
<v Speaker 2>of unlucky to be a five and nine team. I

0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.879
<v Speaker 2>think it's a better team than that. The defense has

0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 2>been like sneaky effective the last month and a half

0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:09.480
<v Speaker 2>or so. I know Russell Wilson is not firing on

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.320
<v Speaker 2>all cylinders. And you know that the idea that Rishad

0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:14.840
<v Speaker 2>Penny was going to be some sort of savior out

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:18.479
<v Speaker 2>of the backfield was maybe torpedoed a bit in Week fifteen.

0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 2>But like it's a functional offense and man like giving

0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 2>less than a touchdown to this just horrendous Bears outfit

0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:33.359
<v Speaker 2>that has quit on its head coach in Seattle, you know,

0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:37.200
<v Speaker 2>traveling all the way to the Pacific Northwest on over

0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.919
<v Speaker 2>the holidays, Like, I can't imagine they're going to be

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:44.360
<v Speaker 2>real excited about being away from home. I'm all over

0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:48.360
<v Speaker 2>Seattle on this, like absolutely six and a half points.

0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:50.560
<v Speaker 2>I'd give like nine and a half points in this one.

0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.640
<v Speaker 2>I think they're going to wipe out the Bears. Wow,

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:56.120
<v Speaker 2>they're just a much better team, Dan.

0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:00.480
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's talk through some of it then. First

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.199
<v Speaker 1>of all, the Seahawks, oddly enough, the Bears playing on

0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.920
<v Speaker 1>a Monday night are on the longer week, right because

0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.199
<v Speaker 1>the Seahawks had to play Tuesday, right, I'm not crazy?

0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:09.600
<v Speaker 2>Right? Yes?

0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:12.600
<v Speaker 1>All right, there's a little bit Oddly enough, the Bears

0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.120
<v Speaker 1>get the extra rest in this one. The Bears were

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you were absolutely right in Pat. That the

0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:19.639
<v Speaker 1>beauty of us sort of here is that, you know,

0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.359
<v Speaker 1>we talk all the time, we message about football all

0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the time during the games, and we are just going

0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.200
<v Speaker 1>back and forth, especially with Yeats again one of our

0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:31.000
<v Speaker 1>colleagues here talking about the Bears and how undisciplined they are,

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:34.879
<v Speaker 1>and their whole secondary was out and still though Pat

0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.560
<v Speaker 1>like the defense at least put up an effort there,

0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:41.199
<v Speaker 1>like those I mean they held down justin Jefferson, they

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:44.280
<v Speaker 1>held on Kirk Cousins like, the defense put up a

0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:48.320
<v Speaker 1>decent effort here. And the Seahawks, who I thought and

0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:50.359
<v Speaker 1>probably should have. I mean, I'm not going to say

0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:52.720
<v Speaker 1>the right side is the winning side, but I feel

0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:55.240
<v Speaker 1>like they should have covered the seven point spread against

0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:57.000
<v Speaker 1>the Rams, Like I feel like that was sort of

0:19:57.000 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 1>where but they they're so off and Russ the deep

0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:03.920
<v Speaker 1>ball man, like I thought maybe he was finally coming

0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.879
<v Speaker 1>back to form. He looked terrible in that game. The

0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:10.560
<v Speaker 1>Seahawks laying almost a touchdown to anybody makes me nervous. Pat,

0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:12.480
<v Speaker 1>It's so it surprises me a little bit that you

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 1>think they're just going to absolutely steamroll the Bears here.

0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:19.240
<v Speaker 2>Getting Locket back is going to help getting him off

0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:23.360
<v Speaker 2>the COVID list. As much as Russell Wilson has struggled,

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.440
<v Speaker 2>I still think he's a much better quarterback than Kirk Cousins,

0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:29.199
<v Speaker 2>which I think was a big I mean that interception

0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:33.760
<v Speaker 2>Kirk Cousins through that arm punt. I mean, like Cousins

0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:36.560
<v Speaker 2>is just as I said, and it drew some iron

0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:39.240
<v Speaker 2>on Twitter, Like I think Cousins is a bad quarterback

0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:43.040
<v Speaker 2>masquerading is a good quarterback. And you know Russ is

0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:46.880
<v Speaker 2>just a lot better, especially when he's got Tyler Lockett

0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:50.840
<v Speaker 2>and he and DK have not been clicking this year,

0:20:51.040 --> 0:20:53.640
<v Speaker 2>but if he is Locket, like one receiver he can

0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 2>totally trust and be in sync with, Like I think

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.120
<v Speaker 2>that's going to be enough to hit on a couple

0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:04.640
<v Speaker 2>of big plays and keep the chains moving and put

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.679
<v Speaker 2>a points against this Bears defense. Like, yeah, the Bears.

0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:12.080
<v Speaker 2>The Bears defense is not trash. They just play stupid

0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:17.040
<v Speaker 2>sometimes and like some of the taunting and ridiculous league stuff,

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:18.840
<v Speaker 2>like and are we going to see that end with

0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:20.720
<v Speaker 2>a team that is quit on its head coach, Like

0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:23.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, I mean, they just there's no discipline

0:21:23.800 --> 0:21:29.679
<v Speaker 2>on that team. And like that offense, Dan, I mean, oh,

0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:33.480
<v Speaker 2>David Montgomery has not gotten anything going since coming back,

0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 2>and it's because the offensive line is terrible. You know,

0:21:37.720 --> 0:21:41.600
<v Speaker 2>justin fields is as decent as the numbers might have been, Like,

0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:44.359
<v Speaker 2>he is just not ready for prime time as a

0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:49.399
<v Speaker 2>passer yet. Yeah, man on the road against a pretty

0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:52.639
<v Speaker 2>professional defense, I just do not see them putting up

0:21:52.640 --> 0:21:55.840
<v Speaker 2>more than about fourteen points seventeen points tops.

0:21:56.480 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and you but you think that the Seahawks then

0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:02.240
<v Speaker 1>are obviously going to put up you know, twenty four

0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:03.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe ish, that's.

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 2>Fair, I mean fourteen or seventeen top stan and like yeah,

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:10.080
<v Speaker 2>three and are in play for sure, that's fair.

0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:13.400
<v Speaker 1>That's fair. Yeah, I'm not I'm not going to join. Yeah,

0:22:13.400 --> 0:22:16.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm not gonna go against you because it's basically almost like,

0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:18.880
<v Speaker 1>please don't make me back either one of these teams.

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 1>But I certainly do have some I it's hard to

0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:25.359
<v Speaker 1>see the Bears keeping it close in Seattle in particular

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:29.680
<v Speaker 1>with this, so I'm gonna avoid it another game. It's

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:32.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot, it's a lot of ugly stuff. This week, Pat,

0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:34.359
<v Speaker 1>I think we can agree with that. I am going

0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:37.920
<v Speaker 1>to continue to fade the Bengals as I did when

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:40.280
<v Speaker 1>you were on this podcast last although I did like

0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:43.360
<v Speaker 1>them getting getting the two and a half or three

0:22:43.520 --> 0:22:46.480
<v Speaker 1>from Denver. I'm going to fade them here though, and

0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to take the Ravens getting three here in

0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:51.680
<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati from the Bengals. I admit I'm a little nervous

0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 1>about this one, but it's hard for me to see

0:22:54.280 --> 0:22:57.119
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals totally blowing out the Ravens, even though they

0:22:57.160 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 1>did it earlier this year. This isn't quite like a

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:03.199
<v Speaker 1>must win for either team, but it's kind of a

0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:05.520
<v Speaker 1>must win, like they can each make the playoffs if

0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:08.199
<v Speaker 1>they don't, but it's going to be really hard for

0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:11.880
<v Speaker 1>them to be able to win the division really if

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 1>you lose this game. It's the teams are pretty even overall,

0:23:17.400 --> 0:23:20.640
<v Speaker 1>so I basically will start there. Baltimore sixteenth in overall DVA,

0:23:20.680 --> 0:23:22.720
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals are nineteenth. I've tried to point out where

0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals are in DVA the whole year because I

0:23:25.000 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 1>think that sort of illustrates exactly how good they are.

0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:30.760
<v Speaker 1>They're a very middling team. It's kind of a classic

0:23:30.800 --> 0:23:34.520
<v Speaker 1>Bilo Sell high spot. The Ravens have now lost three games,

0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:39.320
<v Speaker 1>three straight losses by combined four points. Okay, that's crazy

0:23:39.440 --> 0:23:41.879
<v Speaker 1>four points, and they're combined three losses. The Bengals are

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 1>coming off the win in Denver. When all else fails, Pat,

0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:47.600
<v Speaker 1>I go with the better coach team that is the Ravens.

0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:50.240
<v Speaker 1>I know John Harvon's catch a lot of crap for

0:23:50.320 --> 0:23:52.560
<v Speaker 1>his two point conversions. I didn't really have a problem

0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 1>with any of it. But you know, again, with no secondary,

0:23:58.600 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 1>with Tyler Huntley, he just keeps them in games. They

0:24:01.960 --> 0:24:04.439
<v Speaker 1>play hard. They're going to play a tight game here.

0:24:04.880 --> 0:24:06.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't see them getting blown out. And I don't

0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:08.520
<v Speaker 1>trust Sack Tayler whatsoever. I think the Bengals are a

0:24:08.560 --> 0:24:10.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of smoke and mirrors. The Ravens are going to

0:24:10.520 --> 0:24:12.280
<v Speaker 1>be as motivated as possible. I know the Bengals will

0:24:12.280 --> 0:24:14.760
<v Speaker 1>be too, but again, they got trounced in the previous

0:24:14.760 --> 0:24:17.880
<v Speaker 1>game against the Bengals. They're pissed off about these losses.

0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:23.440
<v Speaker 1>It's a revenge spot for them. I know that the

0:24:25.200 --> 0:24:29.040
<v Speaker 1>Ravens secondary is horrific right now because they're so banged

0:24:29.080 --> 0:24:31.399
<v Speaker 1>up and everything, like that, but since he just is

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:34.159
<v Speaker 1>not consistent. I mean, we saw that again, Pat, with

0:24:34.200 --> 0:24:35.639
<v Speaker 1>the forty nine Ers secondary. That was one of the

0:24:35.680 --> 0:24:37.960
<v Speaker 1>things we talked about, right, how decimated it was, and

0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:40.280
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals really weren't able to take advantage of that.

0:24:40.359 --> 0:24:42.600
<v Speaker 1>Joe Mixon is banged up. I think he'll play, but

0:24:42.640 --> 0:24:44.560
<v Speaker 1>again he's banged up in this one. You know, you

0:24:44.600 --> 0:24:46.719
<v Speaker 1>look at how they've done the loss of the Jets.

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:50.199
<v Speaker 1>They were destroyed by the Browns, then they destroyed the Raiders,

0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>and they beat the crap out of the Steelers, then

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:54.679
<v Speaker 1>they get blown out by the Charters. It's just a

0:24:54.760 --> 0:24:58.200
<v Speaker 1>very inconsistent young team. I don't really see them being

0:24:58.200 --> 0:25:00.720
<v Speaker 1>able to win this game. It doesn't matter to me

0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:03.360
<v Speaker 1>if Lamar Jackson plays, It really doesn't like. If he's

0:25:03.400 --> 0:25:05.439
<v Speaker 1>healthy enough to play, that's good. It boosts their chances.

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:07.240
<v Speaker 1>But I do think a full week of practice with

0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:10.800
<v Speaker 1>Tyler Helnley should be fine. The second divisional game here, Pat.

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:13.000
<v Speaker 1>This is also a theme for me second divisional games.

0:25:13.200 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 1>They're always close. I'm getting almost a field goal from

0:25:16.000 --> 0:25:19.400
<v Speaker 1>a team I usually like it. I lean towards the Ravens,

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:22.040
<v Speaker 1>so I'm going to take them getting the three points.

0:25:22.240 --> 0:25:24.400
<v Speaker 1>I admit I'm a little uneasy about it. We were

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:26.359
<v Speaker 1>on different sides of the Bengals game last time, Pat,

0:25:26.400 --> 0:25:28.359
<v Speaker 1>are we on different sides of the Bengals game this time?

0:25:28.680 --> 0:25:32.280
<v Speaker 2>I think we are again. Dan. I'm I'm telling you

0:25:32.320 --> 0:25:34.480
<v Speaker 2>though in advance, I'm not going to touch this game

0:25:34.520 --> 0:25:36.359
<v Speaker 2>because I cannot get on the right side of a

0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:37.120
<v Speaker 2>Ravens game.

0:25:37.240 --> 0:25:38.480
<v Speaker 1>You have to bet them, don't you.

0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:41.600
<v Speaker 2>I have to bet them for my pool every week.

0:25:41.760 --> 0:25:44.480
<v Speaker 2>And I have lost the last two weeks when I

0:25:44.520 --> 0:25:46.880
<v Speaker 2>thought I had made the right wager betting against them

0:25:46.920 --> 0:25:52.399
<v Speaker 2>both times, only for them to furiously rally back into

0:25:52.440 --> 0:25:55.119
<v Speaker 2>a couple of covers. I mean, talk about the back

0:25:55.160 --> 0:25:57.720
<v Speaker 2>door being open for covers for the Ravens the last

0:25:57.720 --> 0:25:58.160
<v Speaker 2>two weeks.

0:25:58.160 --> 0:25:59.960
<v Speaker 1>My god, the Browns game insane.

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:02.720
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, and that's that's kind of what worries me, Dan,

0:26:02.800 --> 0:26:05.720
<v Speaker 2>that they have had to like stage these big rallies

0:26:06.359 --> 0:26:08.560
<v Speaker 2>just to come back and lose close games. I mean

0:26:08.600 --> 0:26:13.240
<v Speaker 2>they and bless the Ravens for like continuing to play

0:26:13.280 --> 0:26:16.919
<v Speaker 2>their tails off when they have been so decimated by injuries,

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:20.159
<v Speaker 2>and like they could have easily flown the white flag

0:26:20.200 --> 0:26:23.639
<v Speaker 2>against the Packers last week. When the Packers. You know,

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 2>they couldn't stop the Packers, but like the offense just

0:26:26.119 --> 0:26:28.920
<v Speaker 2>kept fighting back, fighting back, fighting back to make it

0:26:28.960 --> 0:26:34.199
<v Speaker 2>a game. And man, I just I can't back a

0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:38.560
<v Speaker 2>team this decimated, especially in the secondary, when you're going

0:26:38.640 --> 0:26:40.800
<v Speaker 2>up against a team with you know, one of the

0:26:40.840 --> 0:26:44.800
<v Speaker 2>most potent groups of wide receivers in the league against

0:26:44.840 --> 0:26:47.679
<v Speaker 2>a quarterback who I think is like I mean, if

0:26:47.720 --> 0:26:51.000
<v Speaker 2>it's possible to call the former number one overall draft

0:26:51.000 --> 0:26:53.960
<v Speaker 2>pick underrated, I think Burrow is kind of underrated. Like,

0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:58.960
<v Speaker 2>I think he's a fantastic passer, and the numbers have

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:06.040
<v Speaker 2>not always matched just how good he's been I think recently.

0:27:06.200 --> 0:27:10.240
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I have a hard time backing the Ravens

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:13.080
<v Speaker 2>with this one just being so under man. I agree

0:27:13.160 --> 0:27:17.080
<v Speaker 2>that Harbaugh's a really good coach and that this team

0:27:17.240 --> 0:27:21.320
<v Speaker 2>just has a lot of spirit and grit, but man, uh,

0:27:23.000 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 2>like just the injuries on defense, the injury at quarterback.

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:32.280
<v Speaker 2>Huntley has been good, but like, I don't trust him

0:27:32.320 --> 0:27:35.159
<v Speaker 2>to hang with Burrow in a shootout.

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:38.199
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I get it, I completely get it. You know.

0:27:38.240 --> 0:27:41.600
<v Speaker 1>For me, it's really like the Bengals have had opportunities

0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:44.919
<v Speaker 1>to put up you know, big passing games, you know,

0:27:45.160 --> 0:27:47.560
<v Speaker 1>late and again against San Francisco, and they just didn't

0:27:47.640 --> 0:27:49.600
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, with this being a divisional game,

0:27:49.600 --> 0:27:52.880
<v Speaker 1>they're always close, usually, especially the second one. I think

0:27:52.960 --> 0:27:56.119
<v Speaker 1>with the weak understanding, I just I trust Harbaugh to

0:27:56.160 --> 0:27:58.600
<v Speaker 1>be able to have some sort of plan to keep

0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:00.879
<v Speaker 1>this close. So yeah, I will go with the Ravens.

0:28:00.920 --> 0:28:03.800
<v Speaker 2>The Bengals have been very jacky and high, no question

0:28:03.880 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 2>about that. Another reason I don't. I don't want anything

0:28:06.240 --> 0:28:06.960
<v Speaker 2>to do with this game.

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:08.920
<v Speaker 1>That's actually a really good point, because I do. I

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:11.600
<v Speaker 1>haven't always faded them. Again, I've sort of been buying

0:28:11.600 --> 0:28:13.920
<v Speaker 1>into them on occasion with some of these games. Again

0:28:14.000 --> 0:28:15.960
<v Speaker 1>last week as well, I liked I liked them getting

0:28:15.960 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 1>points in Denver. I couldn't understand that spread, like I

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:20.200
<v Speaker 1>would have taken them on the money line for sure,

0:28:20.600 --> 0:28:23.919
<v Speaker 1>But uh, in this one, I don't know. Man, this

0:28:23.960 --> 0:28:27.200
<v Speaker 1>strikes me as the what's the bad one? Mister Hyde? Yeah,

0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:30.360
<v Speaker 1>mister Hyde version of the doctor declas the hide But yeah,

0:28:30.400 --> 0:28:32.000
<v Speaker 1>you're right. It is a little hard to handicap them

0:28:32.000 --> 0:28:34.199
<v Speaker 1>because they they are like different teams sometimes when they

0:28:34.240 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 1>come up all right, last pick pat what he got?

0:28:36.320 --> 0:28:38.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this will be quick because it's kind of covering

0:28:38.080 --> 0:28:40.080
<v Speaker 2>old ground. I like the under in the New England

0:28:40.080 --> 0:28:42.560
<v Speaker 2>Buffalo game forty three and a half. I mentioned my

0:28:42.640 --> 0:28:45.760
<v Speaker 2>concerns about Buffalo being able to move the ball and

0:28:46.160 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 2>find balance against that New England team with all that

0:28:50.640 --> 0:28:54.360
<v Speaker 2>talent they have in the secondary. J C. Jackson, Devin mccordy, Dugger,

0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 2>like that's just so hard and being down wide receivers.

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 2>I don't think they're going to sustain much of a

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:07.080
<v Speaker 2>running game. That's just not in the Bills offensive DNA.

0:29:07.240 --> 0:29:09.960
<v Speaker 2>And you know, you express some of the concerns about

0:29:10.000 --> 0:29:16.080
<v Speaker 2>mac Jones especially, And here's where you can win your bet, Dan,

0:29:16.440 --> 0:29:18.280
<v Speaker 2>is if like the Bills get a lead, because we

0:29:18.320 --> 0:29:20.520
<v Speaker 2>saw that mac Jones just can't bring them back. Like

0:29:20.560 --> 0:29:23.160
<v Speaker 2>as soon as the Colts got that punt block touchdown

0:29:23.240 --> 0:29:25.560
<v Speaker 2>to go up fourteen, nothing, Yeah, you felt like that

0:29:25.600 --> 0:29:29.000
<v Speaker 2>game was over. It just kind of you know, mac

0:29:29.080 --> 0:29:31.320
<v Speaker 2>Jones digging them out of a big hole. Like that's

0:29:31.360 --> 0:29:34.080
<v Speaker 2>the one thing the Patriots really can't do if they're

0:29:34.080 --> 0:29:36.800
<v Speaker 2>going to win a game, is get down early like that.

0:29:36.960 --> 0:29:40.760
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I think this one is going to play under,

0:29:40.960 --> 0:29:44.479
<v Speaker 2>maybe not much under, but I don't see it flying

0:29:44.520 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 2>way over the total forty three and a half. I

0:29:46.400 --> 0:29:48.720
<v Speaker 2>just think it's a solid percentage play to take the

0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:52.480
<v Speaker 2>under here, especially if there's any sort of weather again

0:29:52.680 --> 0:29:54.200
<v Speaker 2>in New England this week.

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:57.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, no, I like it. I definitely like it. So

0:29:57.480 --> 0:30:00.760
<v Speaker 1>I have been cold on totals like so I'm sticking

0:30:00.760 --> 0:30:03.719
<v Speaker 1>with spreads for this week. But I do like it.

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 1>And again last week, I really like the Bills Panthers under,

0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:10.720
<v Speaker 1>and again it went over by half a point. Yeah,

0:30:10.840 --> 0:30:14.479
<v Speaker 1>I know it's a chiller, but anyway, yes, I do

0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 1>like it as well. Again the Chris Raybond. Why does

0:30:18.040 --> 0:30:20.120
<v Speaker 1>everybody hate betten unders? You're winning as soon as the

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:23.080
<v Speaker 1>game starts, So I agree with that. I'm with you

0:30:23.120 --> 0:30:26.000
<v Speaker 1>on that one. And maybe I can see maybe a

0:30:26.080 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 1>same game teaser there. Maybe I'll tease the total up

0:30:28.800 --> 0:30:30.920
<v Speaker 1>and the Bills up as well. All Right, my last

0:30:30.960 --> 0:30:34.600
<v Speaker 1>one is probably the grossest pick I've ever made, I

0:30:34.640 --> 0:30:36.440
<v Speaker 1>think on this I've made some gross picks and that's

0:30:36.480 --> 0:30:39.320
<v Speaker 1>what you gotta do. It's actually the Raiders they're giving

0:30:39.360 --> 0:30:41.400
<v Speaker 1>one in our consensus. Ods you look at the various

0:30:41.440 --> 0:30:44.720
<v Speaker 1>books Raiders against the Broncos, they are giving one and

0:30:44.720 --> 0:30:47.720
<v Speaker 1>a half at bet MGM. They are getting one at

0:30:47.760 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 1>FanDuel and DraftKings. They are getting half a point at

0:30:50.640 --> 0:30:53.920
<v Speaker 1>Fox Bet, they are giving half a point at points Bet.

0:30:54.240 --> 0:30:56.280
<v Speaker 1>So it's really all over the place. At this point,

0:30:56.680 --> 0:30:59.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna go the official consensus line is laying one.

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:03.920
<v Speaker 1>That's this is ninety percent about Drew Lock. Pat. You

0:31:03.960 --> 0:31:05.920
<v Speaker 1>know Teddy Bridgwater is going to be out for this game.

0:31:06.120 --> 0:31:08.440
<v Speaker 1>That is a massive downgrade to me. Even though Teddy

0:31:08.440 --> 0:31:10.840
<v Speaker 1>hasn't been great this year, just Drew Lock, I've seen

0:31:10.920 --> 0:31:13.720
<v Speaker 1>enough from him to understand that I don't feel great

0:31:13.720 --> 0:31:16.719
<v Speaker 1>about him. The Raiders obviously beat them earlier in this

0:31:16.800 --> 0:31:20.880
<v Speaker 1>year pretty substantially. This is obviously a different team. They're

0:31:20.880 --> 0:31:22.840
<v Speaker 1>not playing nearly as well. There's gonna be no Darren

0:31:22.880 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 1>Waller offensively, there's no Jonathan Abram Like. They're not as

0:31:26.320 --> 0:31:28.320
<v Speaker 1>good as they were earlier in the year. But the

0:31:28.400 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Raiders always cover against the Broncos. Oddly enough aided their

0:31:31.120 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 1>last ten meetings, and I realized it almost lost against

0:31:34.000 --> 0:31:36.320
<v Speaker 1>a Browns team led by Nick Mullins, but they did

0:31:36.320 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 1>outgain Cleveland by like one hundred yards in that game.

0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:40.760
<v Speaker 1>And this game actually sets up well for the Raiders

0:31:40.800 --> 0:31:43.520
<v Speaker 1>The Raiders have a lot of explosive plays. That's one

0:31:43.520 --> 0:31:45.600
<v Speaker 1>of the things that they do well. The Broncos secondary

0:31:45.640 --> 0:31:48.520
<v Speaker 1>is good, but they do not defend the explosive play

0:31:48.640 --> 0:31:50.440
<v Speaker 1>all that well. We saw that in the first matchup.

0:31:50.840 --> 0:31:53.800
<v Speaker 1>So if you're the Raiders, you just basically have to

0:31:53.800 --> 0:31:56.520
<v Speaker 1>commit yourself to stopping the run. It's all you care about.

0:31:57.240 --> 0:31:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Make Drew Lock beat you. And I think there's such

0:31:59.800 --> 0:32:02.560
<v Speaker 1>a little chance of Drew Lock beating you, especially for

0:32:02.560 --> 0:32:04.400
<v Speaker 1>a team like the Raiders. They get a lot of

0:32:04.400 --> 0:32:06.800
<v Speaker 1>pressure without blitzing a ton, which I think is a

0:32:06.800 --> 0:32:09.600
<v Speaker 1>good recipe for a guy like Lock. So it's uncomfortable

0:32:09.720 --> 0:32:11.920
<v Speaker 1>to be backing a Raiders team that half the time

0:32:12.000 --> 0:32:13.840
<v Speaker 1>just looks dead in the water here pat and especially

0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:17.080
<v Speaker 1>against the Browns. But man, if I have the chance

0:32:17.200 --> 0:32:20.760
<v Speaker 1>to basically just have a pickham game against Drew Lock,

0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:23.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm just gonna do it. So I'm going with the

0:32:23.760 --> 0:32:27.240
<v Speaker 1>Raiders here at home against the Broncos, laying a point.

0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:29.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how you feel about that one.

0:32:30.400 --> 0:32:33.960
<v Speaker 2>It's gonna be a layoff for me. If you force

0:32:34.040 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 2>me to bet it, I'd probably agree and go with

0:32:35.840 --> 0:32:37.840
<v Speaker 2>the Raiders because I have some of the same feelings

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:40.120
<v Speaker 2>about Drew Lock. I don't know, like I feel like

0:32:40.160 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 2>he could maybe surprise us with a non terrible game,

0:32:43.400 --> 0:32:46.239
<v Speaker 2>Like I don't think he's just I actually think there

0:32:46.240 --> 0:32:49.000
<v Speaker 2>are worst backups in the league. I don't think Drew

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:51.800
<v Speaker 2>Lock should ever be considered as a potential starter for

0:32:51.840 --> 0:32:55.640
<v Speaker 2>anyone ever again. But one thing that kind of worries me,

0:32:55.680 --> 0:32:59.240
<v Speaker 2>like if we don't see Darren Waller come back this week, yep,

0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 2>Like passing offense has struggled leg I mean to the

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:06.720
<v Speaker 2>point that Derek Carr. I think in games Waller has

0:33:06.760 --> 0:33:08.719
<v Speaker 2>played this year, average is like three hundred and ten

0:33:08.800 --> 0:33:12.600
<v Speaker 2>yards a game passing, and then gave Darren Waller doesn't play,

0:33:13.240 --> 0:33:17.400
<v Speaker 2>average is like two forty and has thrown. Yeah, it

0:33:17.440 --> 0:33:21.680
<v Speaker 2>was seventeen touchdowns in eleven games with him, and like

0:33:22.760 --> 0:33:26.239
<v Speaker 2>uh four and four without him, or seventeen ten and

0:33:26.280 --> 0:33:29.120
<v Speaker 2>five and five with him. So it's kind of a

0:33:29.160 --> 0:33:32.480
<v Speaker 2>toothless offense without Waller, which is a concern in the

0:33:32.520 --> 0:33:37.880
<v Speaker 2>Denver defense is pretty credible. So I just worry that

0:33:37.960 --> 0:33:39.920
<v Speaker 2>this is the kind of game that could stay within

0:33:40.040 --> 0:33:43.320
<v Speaker 2>one score the entire time and just get really close.

0:33:43.400 --> 0:33:49.000
<v Speaker 2>Like I understand why the spread is oscillating between you know,

0:33:49.320 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 2>a point or half a point either way and might

0:33:51.320 --> 0:33:54.600
<v Speaker 2>land as a pick him. But yeah, to me, this

0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:55.880
<v Speaker 2>is just kind of a stay away.

0:33:56.560 --> 0:33:59.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and I get it. I'm not gonna I'm not

0:33:59.480 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 1>gonna go play about it. Then over under is forty

0:34:01.760 --> 0:34:03.400
<v Speaker 1>one and a half, by the way, which I don't

0:34:03.400 --> 0:34:04.920
<v Speaker 1>hate the under in that one either, because I do

0:34:04.960 --> 0:34:06.480
<v Speaker 1>think that points are probably going to be a little

0:34:06.480 --> 0:34:08.359
<v Speaker 1>difficult to score here. That is a low one though.

0:34:08.440 --> 0:34:11.120
<v Speaker 1>All right, well, recap everything at the end, Pat, But

0:34:11.320 --> 0:34:13.600
<v Speaker 1>why don't we very quickly run through the remaining spreads

0:34:13.680 --> 0:34:15.719
<v Speaker 1>and just give our five second take on it.

0:34:15.760 --> 0:34:17.680
<v Speaker 2>Good with that, yep, let's do it.

0:34:18.040 --> 0:34:21.640
<v Speaker 1>Your packers are home taking on the Browns. This is

0:34:21.960 --> 0:34:24.120
<v Speaker 1>Saturday laying seven and a half.

0:34:25.200 --> 0:34:27.160
<v Speaker 2>If you made me pick a side, I would probably

0:34:27.239 --> 0:34:29.920
<v Speaker 2>pick my packers to cover. And you know, Dan, I'm

0:34:29.960 --> 0:34:34.040
<v Speaker 2>sort of a pessimistic packers better, So you know, maybe

0:34:34.040 --> 0:34:36.680
<v Speaker 2>that means a little something more that I like them.

0:34:36.719 --> 0:34:40.240
<v Speaker 2>I just don't think they're going to face plants against

0:34:40.280 --> 0:34:45.840
<v Speaker 2>a pretty limited offense on Christmas in Lambeau. Yep, I

0:34:45.840 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 2>think I like the under more. And at first my

0:34:48.520 --> 0:34:51.560
<v Speaker 2>instinct of pon seeing what is it forty six.

0:34:53.160 --> 0:34:55.480
<v Speaker 1>Forty six, forty five and a half, forty six draftings,

0:34:55.520 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 1>So but forty five and a half consensus.

0:34:57.160 --> 0:35:01.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, So my first thought was over. But then

0:35:02.680 --> 0:35:05.160
<v Speaker 2>the way to score on the Packers is with the

0:35:05.200 --> 0:35:08.200
<v Speaker 2>big home run plays, not ball control. And that's sort

0:35:08.239 --> 0:35:12.000
<v Speaker 2>of the antithesis of what the Browns do. They are

0:35:12.040 --> 0:35:16.520
<v Speaker 2>a ball control team. You know, maybe the occasional deep

0:35:16.520 --> 0:35:20.000
<v Speaker 2>shot to Donovan People's jones. But like, the Packers have

0:35:20.080 --> 0:35:22.800
<v Speaker 2>given up a lot of forty plus yard pass plays

0:35:22.920 --> 0:35:25.600
<v Speaker 2>and weirdly, they've given up one of the fewest number

0:35:25.800 --> 0:35:28.560
<v Speaker 2>of twenty plus yards pass plays in the league. Like,

0:35:28.680 --> 0:35:31.040
<v Speaker 2>beat them over the top, or don't beat them at all. Like,

0:35:31.080 --> 0:35:34.759
<v Speaker 2>it's hard to do ball control against the Packers. And

0:35:34.800 --> 0:35:37.600
<v Speaker 2>the more important thing for the under here, Dan, these

0:35:37.600 --> 0:35:39.920
<v Speaker 2>are two of the slowest paced teams in the league.

0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:43.399
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the Packers routinely do not snap the ball

0:35:43.600 --> 0:35:47.320
<v Speaker 2>until the play clock is at zero or some people

0:35:47.320 --> 0:35:51.320
<v Speaker 2>would contend past zero. There have been a few instances

0:35:51.360 --> 0:35:53.440
<v Speaker 2>where they've maybe gotten away with what should have been

0:35:53.440 --> 0:35:56.840
<v Speaker 2>delayed games. And the Browns are twenty ninth in pace

0:35:57.239 --> 0:35:59.799
<v Speaker 2>number of seconds between snap. So this is going to

0:35:59.840 --> 0:36:02.839
<v Speaker 2>be a fast moving game. They should get in under

0:36:02.880 --> 0:36:06.840
<v Speaker 2>the three hour mark I would expect. And yeah, so

0:36:08.280 --> 0:36:10.399
<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I think forty five and a half

0:36:10.480 --> 0:36:12.359
<v Speaker 2>or forty six is going to be a pretty tall

0:36:12.520 --> 0:36:15.120
<v Speaker 2>order for these two teams, even though the Packers passing

0:36:15.120 --> 0:36:17.520
<v Speaker 2>game has really been hitting on all cylinders.

0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:20.040
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, obviously, I mean we have Mbs right now

0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:21.520
<v Speaker 1>in the COVID list, so who knows if he's going

0:36:21.600 --> 0:36:23.880
<v Speaker 1>to play. But I do think that if you're the Browns,

0:36:23.880 --> 0:36:25.880
<v Speaker 1>you want to slow this game down as much as possible,

0:36:25.960 --> 0:36:28.280
<v Speaker 1>right You want to you know, run the ball obviously

0:36:28.320 --> 0:36:30.120
<v Speaker 1>as they always do, as much as possible, and try

0:36:30.160 --> 0:36:32.040
<v Speaker 1>to slow it down, keep the ball out of Rogers hands.

0:36:32.040 --> 0:36:33.919
<v Speaker 1>It lends itself to the under So I don't mind

0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:36.320
<v Speaker 1>that play there. I think I probably would lean towards

0:36:36.360 --> 0:36:37.719
<v Speaker 1>the pack if I had to go, but it's a

0:36:37.719 --> 0:36:39.359
<v Speaker 1>stay away from me. Are you gonna get to enjoy

0:36:39.360 --> 0:36:40.800
<v Speaker 1>this game on Christmas? Pat?

0:36:41.160 --> 0:36:43.240
<v Speaker 2>I will for sure. I will be in a household

0:36:43.280 --> 0:36:44.600
<v Speaker 2>full of Packers fans.

0:36:44.600 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 1>So wonderful. I love it. Colts against the Cardinals, Pat,

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:51.800
<v Speaker 1>This is a really interesting one. They're visiting Arizona. Cardinals

0:36:51.840 --> 0:36:55.399
<v Speaker 1>favored by one. I have very mixed feelings about this game. Pat.

0:36:55.440 --> 0:36:56.560
<v Speaker 1>I've gone back and forth on him.

0:36:57.480 --> 0:36:59.880
<v Speaker 2>I do too. It's hard to endorse the Cardinals, as

0:37:00.080 --> 0:37:02.200
<v Speaker 2>bad as they looked on both sides of the ball

0:37:02.280 --> 0:37:07.960
<v Speaker 2>last week against Detroit. But it's always hard to bet

0:37:07.960 --> 0:37:10.160
<v Speaker 2>a team that's coming off such a bad performance. But

0:37:10.800 --> 0:37:12.439
<v Speaker 2>I think one of the best bets you can make

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:17.080
<v Speaker 2>in football is to take the embarrassed, humiliated team coming

0:37:17.120 --> 0:37:21.359
<v Speaker 2>off a bad loss and a team that's good enough

0:37:21.360 --> 0:37:23.719
<v Speaker 2>to do something about it. And I think the Cardinals

0:37:23.880 --> 0:37:27.400
<v Speaker 2>perfectly fit that criteria going up against a fat and

0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:31.399
<v Speaker 2>happy Indianapolis team that's been playing really well, coming off

0:37:31.440 --> 0:37:35.759
<v Speaker 2>a very convincing victory at home against the Patriots, and

0:37:35.800 --> 0:37:37.960
<v Speaker 2>now they have to go on the road. So just

0:37:38.040 --> 0:37:41.520
<v Speaker 2>kind of the formula here has me leaning towards Arizona,

0:37:41.600 --> 0:37:43.600
<v Speaker 2>even though it does not feel good after the way

0:37:43.640 --> 0:37:44.760
<v Speaker 2>they played against Detroit.

0:37:45.120 --> 0:37:47.919
<v Speaker 1>That is exactly correct. That's exactly how I feel about

0:37:47.920 --> 0:37:50.479
<v Speaker 1>a pat which is to say, by the way, Alvin

0:37:50.520 --> 0:37:53.080
<v Speaker 1>Cook just placed on the COVID nineteen less Pat So

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:56.440
<v Speaker 1>sorry trying to get ahead of it, my friend, So

0:37:56.560 --> 0:38:02.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, for that one, Yes, that's exactly how I feel.

0:38:02.000 --> 0:38:06.960
<v Speaker 1>About it entirely, which is to say, yeah, a lot

0:38:07.000 --> 0:38:09.280
<v Speaker 1>of it makes me like the Colts. They're playing really well.

0:38:09.440 --> 0:38:13.279
<v Speaker 1>They're an underrated football team. The Cardinals look a little

0:38:13.320 --> 0:38:16.160
<v Speaker 1>bit like they're in disarray. But it is such a

0:38:16.320 --> 0:38:20.480
<v Speaker 1>classic Bilo cell high spot at this point that it

0:38:20.640 --> 0:38:22.279
<v Speaker 1>just makes me feel like if I had to go

0:38:22.360 --> 0:38:26.040
<v Speaker 1>one way, ultimately, I would go with the Cardinals, but man,

0:38:26.160 --> 0:38:30.000
<v Speaker 1>it is unsettling. Giants are visiting the Eagles, a game

0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:32.280
<v Speaker 1>only a mother could love. Nine and a half. Pat

0:38:32.520 --> 0:38:35.799
<v Speaker 1>It's ten at DraftKings, but let's say consensus at nine

0:38:35.840 --> 0:38:43.160
<v Speaker 1>and a half with the Eagles laying that in Philadelphia.

0:38:40.960 --> 0:38:45.000
<v Speaker 2>A total stay away for me. I'm definitely not betting

0:38:45.040 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 2>on the Joe Judge side, the depleted side, but I

0:38:50.120 --> 0:38:54.200
<v Speaker 2>don't think this Eagles team is good either, and I

0:38:54.239 --> 0:38:56.520
<v Speaker 2>hate them as a double digit favorite pretty much no

0:38:56.560 --> 0:38:59.000
<v Speaker 2>matter who they're playing. So I'm just walking away from

0:38:59.000 --> 0:39:01.840
<v Speaker 2>this game at a fast pace entirely.

0:39:02.239 --> 0:39:04.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, especially we saw what just happened when they

0:39:04.040 --> 0:39:06.319
<v Speaker 1>played each other. I mean, you know, Dalen Hurts had

0:39:06.400 --> 0:39:08.440
<v Speaker 1>one of the worst games I've ever seen him play.

0:39:08.680 --> 0:39:10.759
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, just run away from this game. Don't watch

0:39:10.800 --> 0:39:13.120
<v Speaker 1>it for any reason whatsoever, unless you're an Eagles fan,

0:39:13.160 --> 0:39:16.160
<v Speaker 1>in which case hopefully you enjoy the victory. My Jets

0:39:16.320 --> 0:39:20.400
<v Speaker 1>are taking on the equally putrid Jaguars laying one and

0:39:20.440 --> 0:39:23.000
<v Speaker 1>a half points in New Jersey. What do you think?

0:39:25.360 --> 0:39:29.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah? So I was kind of compelled by the over

0:39:29.880 --> 0:39:32.040
<v Speaker 2>or the under at first, like how are these two

0:39:32.160 --> 0:39:34.600
<v Speaker 2>teams going to get to forty or forty one points?

0:39:34.600 --> 0:39:37.320
<v Speaker 2>And then I realized they're two of the fastest based

0:39:37.400 --> 0:39:40.680
<v Speaker 2>teams in the league. Like they operate. I think both

0:39:40.680 --> 0:39:43.120
<v Speaker 2>are in the top five as far as number of

0:39:43.160 --> 0:39:45.880
<v Speaker 2>seconds burned between plays. They like to they like to

0:39:45.920 --> 0:39:49.360
<v Speaker 2>get after it dan like they like to fail quickly.

0:39:49.640 --> 0:39:53.640
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, and like, how do you how do you

0:39:53.680 --> 0:39:56.720
<v Speaker 2>play this? I mean with Sala on the COVID list,

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:59.760
<v Speaker 2>and like we thought the Jaguars might get the post

0:39:59.880 --> 0:40:02.520
<v Speaker 2>or been Meyer bounced last week and it didn't happen.

0:40:02.560 --> 0:40:06.200
<v Speaker 2>Do they get a delayed post Meyer bounce? Like? I

0:40:06.239 --> 0:40:08.360
<v Speaker 2>think if you forced me to pick this one, I

0:40:08.360 --> 0:40:14.359
<v Speaker 2>would take the Jaguars. Yes, But yeah, I'm not going

0:40:14.440 --> 0:40:17.280
<v Speaker 2>to be forced to bet this game or watch this game.

0:40:17.760 --> 0:40:20.640
<v Speaker 1>Correct. I will be forced to watch this game because

0:40:20.640 --> 0:40:23.160
<v Speaker 1>it's the Jets, But I think the Jaguars are the

0:40:23.200 --> 0:40:26.919
<v Speaker 1>right side in this game. You know, I think they're

0:40:26.960 --> 0:40:30.320
<v Speaker 1>overall a better team realistically. I just do the Jets,

0:40:30.360 --> 0:40:33.440
<v Speaker 1>especially without a Lodge more. There's no Corey Davis, like

0:40:33.480 --> 0:40:35.440
<v Speaker 1>the Jets are just bereft of weapons. At least the

0:40:35.520 --> 0:40:37.799
<v Speaker 1>Jaguars have weapons, and James Robinson might run for one

0:40:37.840 --> 0:40:39.600
<v Speaker 1>hundred and seventy five yards in this game.

0:40:39.640 --> 0:40:42.040
<v Speaker 2>You know, I know some of the metrics stands say

0:40:42.080 --> 0:40:44.239
<v Speaker 2>that the Jets are the slightly better team.

0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:47.080
<v Speaker 1>I know, I know what the metrics say, but as

0:40:47.120 --> 0:40:50.560
<v Speaker 1>somebody who's compelled to watch every snap of every Jets game,

0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:53.439
<v Speaker 1>I can't imagine they're a better team than any other

0:40:53.520 --> 0:40:58.160
<v Speaker 1>team in the NFL right now. I understand completely, and

0:40:58.360 --> 0:41:00.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, but yeah, I mean, look, I'm not betting it.

0:41:01.200 --> 0:41:02.839
<v Speaker 1>I think that if you have to go one way, though,

0:41:02.840 --> 0:41:05.600
<v Speaker 1>I would go with the Jaguars just because goodness, give

0:41:05.600 --> 0:41:08.399
<v Speaker 1>me the team getting the points in this game. That's

0:41:08.400 --> 0:41:12.520
<v Speaker 1>where I'm going with Bucks are visiting Carolina. Spread's pretty

0:41:12.520 --> 0:41:16.360
<v Speaker 1>consistent here at ten. Obviously you've got no Chris Godwin

0:41:16.480 --> 0:41:19.239
<v Speaker 1>right now. For the Bucks, you've got no Leonard Fournette.

0:41:19.680 --> 0:41:22.560
<v Speaker 1>My guess is you will have no Mike Evans in

0:41:22.600 --> 0:41:24.680
<v Speaker 1>this game, but you will have Antonio Brown and you

0:41:24.719 --> 0:41:27.640
<v Speaker 1>will have Ronald Jones unless there's COVID issues. So Pat,

0:41:27.680 --> 0:41:30.600
<v Speaker 1>what do you do? Hear the road team laying ten

0:41:30.800 --> 0:41:31.440
<v Speaker 1>in Carolina?

0:41:32.520 --> 0:41:34.640
<v Speaker 2>I think the Bucks are good enough to make the

0:41:34.719 --> 0:41:39.839
<v Speaker 2>necessary adjustments after they were just completely thwarted by the

0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:43.839
<v Speaker 2>Saints last weekend. Like the Panthers defense is no joke,

0:41:43.920 --> 0:41:47.160
<v Speaker 2>it's good. I don't know if they'll be able to

0:41:47.160 --> 0:41:49.759
<v Speaker 2>bring this sort of heat on Tom Brady that the

0:41:49.800 --> 0:41:53.239
<v Speaker 2>Saints were able to put on him last week. I

0:41:53.360 --> 0:41:55.480
<v Speaker 2>kind of just think the Buccaneers are going to figure

0:41:55.520 --> 0:41:58.960
<v Speaker 2>this out. I kind of lean on them to cover

0:41:59.160 --> 0:42:03.200
<v Speaker 2>the number against you know, the Panthers offense is just

0:42:03.280 --> 0:42:09.719
<v Speaker 2>so like, I can't I can't take the Panthers even

0:42:09.760 --> 0:42:13.240
<v Speaker 2>with the ten points. I can't take this Panthers offense

0:42:13.280 --> 0:42:17.160
<v Speaker 2>against Tom Brady. So I'm leaning Bucks here. I don't

0:42:17.200 --> 0:42:18.839
<v Speaker 2>know if I'm gonna bet it or not.

0:42:19.960 --> 0:42:23.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah I would, I'm not going to bet it, but

0:42:23.239 --> 0:42:26.960
<v Speaker 1>assuming that COVID doesn't wreck everything again, all all recommendations

0:42:26.960 --> 0:42:29.319
<v Speaker 1>are assuming COVID does a recornything. I would go with

0:42:29.360 --> 0:42:31.200
<v Speaker 1>the Bucks because I do think you're going to see

0:42:31.200 --> 0:42:34.360
<v Speaker 1>a bounce back performance here. You know that the Panthers

0:42:34.440 --> 0:42:36.640
<v Speaker 1>offensively are not going to be able to put up

0:42:37.400 --> 0:42:40.279
<v Speaker 1>that many points no matter what goes on. You've got

0:42:40.360 --> 0:42:42.680
<v Speaker 1>DJ Moore little banged up. But also you saw even

0:42:42.680 --> 0:42:46.560
<v Speaker 1>the Bucks with Jones and Fournette before he went out,

0:42:46.960 --> 0:42:50.160
<v Speaker 1>they were able to run the ball pretty well against

0:42:50.200 --> 0:42:53.160
<v Speaker 1>a very difficult Saints run defense. So I do think

0:42:53.200 --> 0:42:54.960
<v Speaker 1>that they'll worse, come to worse. He'll be able to

0:42:54.960 --> 0:42:56.920
<v Speaker 1>do that, but you get Brady a week to prepare

0:42:57.239 --> 0:43:00.000
<v Speaker 1>for these guys, especially with Brown back, with Gronk, even

0:43:00.160 --> 0:43:02.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, guy like Tyler Johnson. I feel like offensively

0:43:02.640 --> 0:43:04.640
<v Speaker 1>they're going to bounce back and they'll want to make

0:43:04.680 --> 0:43:08.040
<v Speaker 1>a statement here, so I will go with them. Lions

0:43:08.080 --> 0:43:10.000
<v Speaker 1>are getting five and a half right now in Atlanta.

0:43:10.440 --> 0:43:13.319
<v Speaker 1>Jared Goff is on the COVID list. Yeah, you know,

0:43:13.560 --> 0:43:15.719
<v Speaker 1>I know, Pat, what you want to do about that.

0:43:15.760 --> 0:43:17.480
<v Speaker 1>Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn't. So I don't know

0:43:17.480 --> 0:43:18.719
<v Speaker 1>how you can handicap this game.

0:43:19.400 --> 0:43:22.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's exactly it. And it's a weird line Atlanta

0:43:22.280 --> 0:43:25.920
<v Speaker 2>minus six and plus one hundred I was seeing this

0:43:26.000 --> 0:43:30.120
<v Speaker 2>morning at DraftKings. So even money for Atlanta to cover

0:43:30.200 --> 0:43:32.200
<v Speaker 2>a six point spread, Like, you can't feel good about

0:43:32.320 --> 0:43:35.360
<v Speaker 2>Atlanta covering a six point spread against anyone, But I

0:43:35.400 --> 0:43:40.120
<v Speaker 2>guess my biggest concern about betting Atlanta is that their

0:43:40.160 --> 0:43:43.040
<v Speaker 2>offense can just be wrecked by a good pass rush.

0:43:43.280 --> 0:43:46.440
<v Speaker 2>And I think Detroit's pass rush is ranked like thirty

0:43:46.520 --> 0:43:50.520
<v Speaker 2>first by PFF. So maybe the Falcons are the right

0:43:50.560 --> 0:43:53.800
<v Speaker 2>side on this one, even though I think the Lions

0:43:53.840 --> 0:43:57.359
<v Speaker 2>are going to get respect from betters because they've been

0:43:57.480 --> 0:44:01.120
<v Speaker 2>a frisky underdog lately and obviously they were really frisky

0:44:01.160 --> 0:44:05.080
<v Speaker 2>against the Cardinals last week. But if I had to

0:44:05.160 --> 0:44:07.640
<v Speaker 2>play this, I think I would play it on the

0:44:07.640 --> 0:44:12.279
<v Speaker 2>Atlanta side and lay the points. As really uncomfortable as

0:44:12.280 --> 0:44:14.719
<v Speaker 2>that feels, I think that might be the right bet.

0:44:15.400 --> 0:44:18.759
<v Speaker 1>I'm really excited, uh for an excuse to not have

0:44:18.800 --> 0:44:22.759
<v Speaker 1>to bet or watch this game because of the COVID situation.

0:44:23.200 --> 0:44:25.080
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, as of right now, I take the Falcons

0:44:25.600 --> 0:44:28.840
<v Speaker 1>because I do think that that they have the ability

0:44:28.920 --> 0:44:31.560
<v Speaker 1>to to put up some big numbers of everything goes right,

0:44:31.600 --> 0:44:33.480
<v Speaker 1>and you're right that lines don't get a lot of pressure,

0:44:33.560 --> 0:44:34.239
<v Speaker 1>so that does.

0:44:34.200 --> 0:44:36.080
<v Speaker 2>I would say, I would say, for sure, Dan, I

0:44:36.200 --> 0:44:38.040
<v Speaker 2>like I would not want to play this one until

0:44:38.040 --> 0:44:41.239
<v Speaker 2>we knew whether was going because golf has been like

0:44:41.719 --> 0:44:46.200
<v Speaker 2>sneakily good in the last four weeks, been pretty good.

0:44:46.800 --> 0:44:52.120
<v Speaker 1>Correct, the Rams are laying three in Minnesota? Who now

0:44:52.160 --> 0:44:55.600
<v Speaker 1>maybe down Dalvin Cook. I have no idea with the

0:44:55.920 --> 0:44:58.040
<v Speaker 1>with the protocols pat like I I don't know what

0:44:58.200 --> 0:45:01.960
<v Speaker 1>being placed on the COVID list on the absolutely means

0:45:01.960 --> 0:45:04.840
<v Speaker 1>for Sunday. There was no tweet about him being ruled

0:45:04.840 --> 0:45:08.240
<v Speaker 1>out or anything like that with Dalvin Cook. Without Dalvin

0:45:08.280 --> 0:45:11.360
<v Speaker 1>Cook three points in Minnesota? What do you think?

0:45:11.760 --> 0:45:13.960
<v Speaker 2>And this was already a weird line because the Rams

0:45:13.960 --> 0:45:16.200
<v Speaker 2>were two and a half this morning. Last I checked

0:45:16.239 --> 0:45:19.480
<v Speaker 2>before this show, Rams were two and a half point

0:45:19.520 --> 0:45:22.000
<v Speaker 2>favorites on the road at Minnesota, but minus won twenty

0:45:22.040 --> 0:45:23.320
<v Speaker 2>five at Draftking.

0:45:23.400 --> 0:45:26.440
<v Speaker 1>So that's the difference that Draft Kings juiced up minus

0:45:27.040 --> 0:45:29.799
<v Speaker 1>uh minus two and a half. It's minus one ten

0:45:30.239 --> 0:45:33.160
<v Speaker 1>and three at most other books. But that's why it

0:45:33.239 --> 0:45:34.680
<v Speaker 1>was minus one twenty five for it.

0:45:35.360 --> 0:45:37.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I'm definitely not betting the Vikings here. If

0:45:37.680 --> 0:45:39.560
<v Speaker 2>I play this one, it's gonna be the Rams. And

0:45:39.640 --> 0:45:42.479
<v Speaker 2>like the Dalvin Cook thing might drive the line enough

0:45:42.520 --> 0:45:44.400
<v Speaker 2>that I just don't want to take it cause, like,

0:45:45.800 --> 0:45:47.560
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I have a little respect for the Vikings.

0:45:47.640 --> 0:45:49.879
<v Speaker 2>I think they're a decent team, but like they're two

0:45:49.920 --> 0:45:55.160
<v Speaker 2>of their most glaring weaknesses the center of their offensive line.

0:45:55.600 --> 0:45:58.919
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they couldn't draft block a Keem Nicks last week.

0:45:58.960 --> 0:46:01.279
<v Speaker 2>How are they gonna do against Aaron Donald this week?

0:46:01.320 --> 0:46:05.560
<v Speaker 2>My guess is probably not. Well. Yeah, and their defensive backfield,

0:46:05.960 --> 0:46:08.600
<v Speaker 2>which is like so bad. They just cut for Shud

0:46:08.680 --> 0:46:12.000
<v Speaker 2>Breeland and I mean not that Breeland was any good,

0:46:12.080 --> 0:46:15.400
<v Speaker 2>but right, like that's just a disaster. And you know,

0:46:15.440 --> 0:46:18.960
<v Speaker 2>how are they gonna stop Cooper Cupp right, Van Jefferson

0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:22.680
<v Speaker 2>and Odell Beckham. So I do think the Rams are

0:46:22.680 --> 0:46:26.359
<v Speaker 2>gonna win this game. I don't know if they're gonna

0:46:26.360 --> 0:46:30.080
<v Speaker 2>blow the Vikings out in Minnesota though, that's another story.

0:46:30.120 --> 0:46:33.960
<v Speaker 2>And I'm kind of depends where the line winds up.

0:46:34.000 --> 0:46:36.920
<v Speaker 2>But I'm probably not gonna be too interested in playing

0:46:36.920 --> 0:46:37.400
<v Speaker 2>this one.

0:46:37.560 --> 0:46:39.480
<v Speaker 1>So I think looking at a pat it's like when

0:46:39.480 --> 0:46:41.080
<v Speaker 1>I just take a step back and look at it,

0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:45.040
<v Speaker 1>it strikes me as like it strikes me as the

0:46:45.160 --> 0:46:49.320
<v Speaker 1>right play absent Dalvin Cook, would be the really ugly

0:46:49.840 --> 0:46:54.680
<v Speaker 1>hold your nose Vikings play here getting points because they

0:46:54.719 --> 0:46:58.120
<v Speaker 1>always keep games close. The Rams are coming off a

0:46:58.160 --> 0:47:01.840
<v Speaker 1>short week shorter we again than even the Viking somehow

0:47:01.880 --> 0:47:05.080
<v Speaker 1>again for the second straight time. Rams sort of in

0:47:05.120 --> 0:47:09.040
<v Speaker 1>a cell high sort of momentier, and it would be

0:47:09.040 --> 0:47:11.439
<v Speaker 1>one like I'd hate to make, but I think over

0:47:11.480 --> 0:47:15.040
<v Speaker 1>the long terms it's probably you know plus ev, but

0:47:15.280 --> 0:47:17.440
<v Speaker 1>I couldn't. I wouldn't actually make that bet right it

0:47:17.480 --> 0:47:19.839
<v Speaker 1>strikes He's like, this seems like maybe a spot because

0:47:19.880 --> 0:47:22.200
<v Speaker 1>everything looks like the Rams are a much better team.

0:47:22.440 --> 0:47:24.520
<v Speaker 1>It's the type of game that the Vikings just randomly

0:47:24.560 --> 0:47:27.560
<v Speaker 1>show up for and do, but it's just to stay

0:47:27.600 --> 0:47:29.840
<v Speaker 1>away from me, and Dalvin Cook gives me the excuse.

0:47:30.000 --> 0:47:32.799
<v Speaker 1>So I'm very excited to do that. The Chiefs who

0:47:32.800 --> 0:47:35.160
<v Speaker 1>have everyone on the COVID list already and the only

0:47:35.160 --> 0:47:37.879
<v Speaker 1>one we know who's out is Harrison Butker, so it'll

0:47:37.880 --> 0:47:40.719
<v Speaker 1>be Elliott Fry kicking. So take that into account. They

0:47:40.719 --> 0:47:43.400
<v Speaker 1>are still links seven and a half right now, pretty

0:47:43.480 --> 0:47:46.960
<v Speaker 1>much across the board to the Steelers in Kansas City.

0:47:47.680 --> 0:47:50.879
<v Speaker 1>I think I'm expecting them to get back Tyreek Hill

0:47:51.040 --> 0:47:52.920
<v Speaker 1>and Travis Kelsey, by the way, like they went on

0:47:52.920 --> 0:47:55.520
<v Speaker 1>the COVID list early the new protocols maybe, but who

0:47:55.560 --> 0:47:57.440
<v Speaker 1>really knows. What do you do with this one?

0:47:57.520 --> 0:48:00.319
<v Speaker 2>Pat, I almost feel like the line is saying they

0:48:00.360 --> 0:48:03.720
<v Speaker 2>expect Tyreek Hill and Travis Chelsea to come back early,

0:48:03.960 --> 0:48:06.440
<v Speaker 2>and if they do. I like the Chiefs at this point,

0:48:06.560 --> 0:48:09.040
<v Speaker 2>like I have kind of felt all year that the

0:48:10.960 --> 0:48:15.960
<v Speaker 2>Steelers are a bad team, portraying a five hundred team,

0:48:16.080 --> 0:48:19.000
<v Speaker 2>a mediocre team, and the Chiefs have been playing their

0:48:19.000 --> 0:48:22.359
<v Speaker 2>best football of the season. Their defense has gone from

0:48:22.480 --> 0:48:27.400
<v Speaker 2>just horrendous in that first month to actually really good,

0:48:27.440 --> 0:48:32.600
<v Speaker 2>and I think a lot of the metrics show that

0:48:32.640 --> 0:48:35.560
<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs are now. I think they're the odds on

0:48:35.680 --> 0:48:38.000
<v Speaker 2>favorite now to win the Super Bowl in a lot

0:48:38.000 --> 0:48:42.600
<v Speaker 2>of spots, and I can understand why with that defense

0:48:42.600 --> 0:48:46.560
<v Speaker 2>playing well, and we knew Mahomes was eventually going to

0:48:46.560 --> 0:48:48.520
<v Speaker 2>get his act together. I don't know if we can

0:48:48.560 --> 0:48:51.200
<v Speaker 2>say that he's all the way there, but we've seen

0:48:51.239 --> 0:48:54.359
<v Speaker 2>a couple of his ceiling games in the last three

0:48:54.440 --> 0:48:58.719
<v Speaker 2>weeks or so. I think Kansas City is going to

0:48:58.760 --> 0:49:01.080
<v Speaker 2>cover this if they get their past catchers back, Like

0:49:01.120 --> 0:49:05.200
<v Speaker 2>if Hill and Kelsey play, Assuming no other major COVID

0:49:05.239 --> 0:49:07.760
<v Speaker 2>scratches in this game, nothing that really moves the line

0:49:07.800 --> 0:49:09.360
<v Speaker 2>off of seven and a half and a half, I

0:49:09.360 --> 0:49:11.040
<v Speaker 2>would lay those points to Pittsburgh.

0:49:11.760 --> 0:49:14.879
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's probably right, assuming that they come back.

0:49:14.920 --> 0:49:18.120
<v Speaker 1>But man, this is so crazy. I'm just saying, like,

0:49:18.239 --> 0:49:20.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, betting right now and everything like that is

0:49:20.280 --> 0:49:20.840
<v Speaker 1>just nuts.

0:49:20.840 --> 0:49:23.400
<v Speaker 2>Can I can I give you the like it's weird

0:49:23.440 --> 0:49:25.759
<v Speaker 2>that we get it as a slow drip, but like

0:49:26.320 --> 0:49:29.400
<v Speaker 2>you know that we're going to lose basically two percent

0:49:29.440 --> 0:49:32.360
<v Speaker 2>of the player population this week. It is like the

0:49:32.440 --> 0:49:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Leftovers on HBO, the HBO series where two percent of

0:49:36.200 --> 0:49:40.000
<v Speaker 2>the Earth's population just disappeared. And that's what's happening in

0:49:40.040 --> 0:49:43.759
<v Speaker 2>the NFL every week, except rather than all disappearing at once,

0:49:43.800 --> 0:49:47.439
<v Speaker 2>it's a slow drip, right, a coffee maker, And it's

0:49:47.560 --> 0:49:51.160
<v Speaker 2>just weird. And I can't even imagine what it would

0:49:51.160 --> 0:49:55.960
<v Speaker 2>be like to work in a book making operation, right,

0:49:56.080 --> 0:50:00.439
<v Speaker 2>and like having to tweak these lines like every hour

0:50:00.560 --> 0:50:04.400
<v Speaker 2>on the hour as things change, like just crazy.

0:50:04.120 --> 0:50:06.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean minute by minute, right, because God forbid, somebody

0:50:06.480 --> 0:50:10.120
<v Speaker 1>sees something. But again, they always have advanced info at least,

0:50:10.120 --> 0:50:11.879
<v Speaker 1>but you've got to be on the ball with them.

0:50:12.280 --> 0:50:15.759
<v Speaker 1>Cowboys are home against Washington Lank ten and a half

0:50:15.800 --> 0:50:16.600
<v Speaker 1>on Sunday Night.

0:50:17.840 --> 0:50:22.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, weird that we've seen Dak not play very well lately,

0:50:22.920 --> 0:50:26.480
<v Speaker 2>and it's kind of been a sustained thing over like

0:50:26.520 --> 0:50:28.880
<v Speaker 2>a five game period. I think there was a stat

0:50:28.960 --> 0:50:32.480
<v Speaker 2>where Dak has averaged There have been seventeen games in

0:50:32.560 --> 0:50:35.080
<v Speaker 2>Dak's career where he has averaged less than six point

0:50:35.160 --> 0:50:38.879
<v Speaker 2>yards six point zero yards per pass attempt, and five

0:50:38.960 --> 0:50:41.440
<v Speaker 2>of them have been since the start of November. Like,

0:50:41.520 --> 0:50:44.680
<v Speaker 2>he is playing terribly, but he played poorly when they

0:50:44.719 --> 0:50:47.400
<v Speaker 2>played Washington in Week fourteen. He was twenty two of

0:50:47.480 --> 0:50:50.600
<v Speaker 2>thirty nine for two hundred and eleven yards, one touchdown,

0:50:50.920 --> 0:50:54.520
<v Speaker 2>two interceptions, averaged five point four yards per pass attempt,

0:50:55.239 --> 0:50:58.120
<v Speaker 2>and they won by seventeen points on the road. So

0:50:59.239 --> 0:51:02.920
<v Speaker 2>I'm definitely not playing Washington in this one. But I

0:51:03.040 --> 0:51:05.880
<v Speaker 2>just don't know if I can back the Cowboys with

0:51:05.920 --> 0:51:09.360
<v Speaker 2>their passing game not quite functional. The Dallas d is

0:51:09.360 --> 0:51:13.359
<v Speaker 2>playing great though. If I'm betting this, I'm definitely betting Dallas.

0:51:13.840 --> 0:51:16.279
<v Speaker 1>I'm staying far away from it, man, like they just

0:51:16.640 --> 0:51:19.759
<v Speaker 1>I have trouble like figuring out the Dallas offense because

0:51:19.760 --> 0:51:22.200
<v Speaker 1>that really is not playing well at all. But I

0:51:22.320 --> 0:51:24.640
<v Speaker 1>just can't back Washington and now Tara Heineke did come

0:51:24.640 --> 0:51:27.879
<v Speaker 1>off the covid lest day, but still I'm just saying

0:51:27.880 --> 0:51:30.920
<v Speaker 1>a way, especially with Antonio Gibson banged up, I don't know.

0:51:31.200 --> 0:51:34.719
<v Speaker 1>Last game Monday night, the Dolphins visiting New Orleans, we

0:51:35.040 --> 0:51:38.360
<v Speaker 1>just got it now. The line went from Saints minus

0:51:38.400 --> 0:51:41.799
<v Speaker 1>three to It looks like for the most part the

0:51:41.920 --> 0:51:45.239
<v Speaker 1>Dolphins are laying either one or one and a half here,

0:51:45.600 --> 0:51:47.360
<v Speaker 1>and it does sound like Book is going to be

0:51:47.400 --> 0:51:47.840
<v Speaker 1>the starter.

0:51:49.040 --> 0:51:49.840
<v Speaker 2>What's the total?

0:51:49.920 --> 0:51:52.640
<v Speaker 1>Now, let me check that out for you, all right,

0:51:52.680 --> 0:51:54.239
<v Speaker 1>take a guess, bat. That's what Joe and I like

0:51:54.280 --> 0:51:55.960
<v Speaker 1>to do on the Look Aheads. We take the guests

0:51:56.000 --> 0:51:58.440
<v Speaker 1>on the total. I'm gonna see I can tell you

0:51:58.480 --> 0:52:00.279
<v Speaker 1>what it was if you want. Before I tell you

0:52:00.360 --> 0:52:04.120
<v Speaker 1>what it was, was it thirty nine before it was

0:52:04.320 --> 0:52:05.120
<v Speaker 1>thirty nine?

0:52:05.280 --> 0:52:08.000
<v Speaker 2>Yes, I'll say thirty five and a half.

0:52:08.280 --> 0:52:11.319
<v Speaker 1>It's only thirty seven right now, only thirty seven. But

0:52:11.360 --> 0:52:14.440
<v Speaker 1>my guess is they gotta they gotta slowly readjust it right,

0:52:14.440 --> 0:52:17.279
<v Speaker 1>They've got to slowly figure it out. Thirty seven is

0:52:17.280 --> 0:52:18.080
<v Speaker 1>the latest total.

0:52:18.480 --> 0:52:20.440
<v Speaker 2>This is a week where generally I don't want to

0:52:20.440 --> 0:52:22.479
<v Speaker 2>lock anything in Dan, but I might have to jug

0:52:22.520 --> 0:52:24.400
<v Speaker 2>down that under if I can lock it in at

0:52:24.400 --> 0:52:29.120
<v Speaker 2>thirty seven. And like I, when I saw that initial total,

0:52:29.160 --> 0:52:32.279
<v Speaker 2>I wondered if that was just the recency bias of

0:52:32.320 --> 0:52:38.560
<v Speaker 2>having seen the Saints pass rush just completely smother Brady

0:52:38.840 --> 0:52:41.400
<v Speaker 2>last week, a game where Brady was clearly, you know,

0:52:41.480 --> 0:52:47.359
<v Speaker 2>also frazzled by losing like his top receivers. But man,

0:52:47.440 --> 0:52:50.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't know that's uh, I'm I'm probably just laying

0:52:50.560 --> 0:52:53.200
<v Speaker 2>off this one. Like I've never really been much of

0:52:53.200 --> 0:52:57.200
<v Speaker 2>a believer in the Dolphins, I've one of the teams

0:52:57.200 --> 0:53:01.279
<v Speaker 2>I've had a hard time figuring out the entire season. Sure,

0:53:01.320 --> 0:53:05.040
<v Speaker 2>And yeah, and the Saints are just such a moving

0:53:05.120 --> 0:53:07.520
<v Speaker 2>target now with their quarterback woes.

0:53:08.400 --> 0:53:11.000
<v Speaker 1>Just stay away, I go. Or if you're gonna bet it,

0:53:11.000 --> 0:53:13.239
<v Speaker 1>wait until Monday night, you know how your week went,

0:53:13.840 --> 0:53:19.239
<v Speaker 1>see what the COVID situation is, and then do it. Man, goodness, gracious, don't. Yeah,

0:53:19.280 --> 0:53:20.600
<v Speaker 1>there are a few bets who might want to lock

0:53:20.640 --> 0:53:22.319
<v Speaker 1>in early. This might be one of them, though, Pat

0:53:22.360 --> 0:53:24.399
<v Speaker 1>with the with the under, I'm with you on that one,

0:53:24.920 --> 0:53:30.360
<v Speaker 1>all right, Pat, let's go over your bets one more time.

0:53:31.200 --> 0:53:34.000
<v Speaker 1>If you remember them, tell me what they were so

0:53:34.160 --> 0:53:36.240
<v Speaker 1>you could start it. Then I'll give mine, sure.

0:53:36.239 --> 0:53:39.120
<v Speaker 2>So I like the Chargers ling ten on the road

0:53:39.280 --> 0:53:43.720
<v Speaker 2>against the Texans. I like Seattle, which is of this morning,

0:53:43.800 --> 0:53:47.040
<v Speaker 2>was minus six and a half against the hapless Chicago

0:53:47.120 --> 0:53:51.040
<v Speaker 2>Bears in Seattle. And I like the under in that

0:53:51.080 --> 0:53:53.680
<v Speaker 2>Buffalo Patriots game. That is going to be such a

0:53:53.800 --> 0:53:56.759
<v Speaker 2>raucous event at your holiday gathering then, and that was

0:53:56.800 --> 0:53:59.879
<v Speaker 2>a forty three and a half last I saw.

0:54:00.200 --> 0:54:02.239
<v Speaker 1>Well, I look forward to playing this podcast for my

0:54:02.320 --> 0:54:05.600
<v Speaker 1>father and brother in law. I will take with my lead.

0:54:05.640 --> 0:54:08.520
<v Speaker 1>There you go, Billy and Kevin. Bill's getting two and

0:54:08.560 --> 0:54:12.200
<v Speaker 1>a half from the Patriots, the Ravens getting three from

0:54:12.239 --> 0:54:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals, and I'm not kidding. The consensus line since

0:54:16.600 --> 0:54:19.600
<v Speaker 1>we started this has now flipped to the Raiders getting one.

0:54:19.640 --> 0:54:23.400
<v Speaker 1>But I'll take the Raiders giving one to the Broncos.

0:54:23.440 --> 0:54:26.680
<v Speaker 1>So that's gonna do it. I hope everyone has a

0:54:26.760 --> 0:54:31.120
<v Speaker 1>wonderful Christmas. To everybody who celebrates, enjoy the football regardless,

0:54:31.560 --> 0:54:34.080
<v Speaker 1>Enjoy your Sunday. Unless you have an under on the

0:54:34.120 --> 0:54:36.840
<v Speaker 1>Saints Miami game, probably wait as long as possible to

0:54:36.880 --> 0:54:39.960
<v Speaker 1>place in your bets. And in the meantime, again, everybody,

0:54:40.040 --> 0:54:42.640
<v Speaker 1>have a wonderful weekend. We'll be back doing this next

0:54:42.680 --> 0:54:45.040
<v Speaker 1>week again. We'll probably take a look aheadline, hopefully without

0:54:45.719 --> 0:54:48.240
<v Speaker 1>all the COVID news and all the all the holiday stuff,

0:54:48.280 --> 0:55:02.880
<v Speaker 1>but we'll talk to you then