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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is

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Speaker 1: Week sixteen. We did not do the look Aheadlines podcast

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Speaker 1: this week early on just because a it's the holidays,

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Speaker 1: everybody's traveling and be the games and end until you know,

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Speaker 1: late night on Tuesday. So this is the only podcast

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Speaker 1: for this week, but it is our best bets for

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Speaker 1: Week sixteen at the NFL season. With me to do

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Speaker 1: that is Pat Fitzmorris, senior editor here at Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: Find them on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat. Happy holidays.

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Speaker 1: How you doing?

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Speaker 2: Happy Holidays? Dan, I'm doing well. Maybe there will be

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Speaker 2: a few more people interested in playing these games this

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Speaker 2: week since there have been some eliminations unfortunately in our

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Speaker 2: fantasy leagues.

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Speaker 1: That's true, that's true. Yes, our fantasy leagues are slowly

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Speaker 1: whittling down. Thankfully, the betting landscape doesn't change. Although we

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Speaker 1: can be as honest as possible, right Pat, this is

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Speaker 1: an unconventional time right now in football, and there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of bets, Pat, that I want to make

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Speaker 1: at the moment and a couple that I have, but

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Speaker 1: we have to try lightly right because of the COVID

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Speaker 1: situation and everything that's happening. So we'll give out recommendations.

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Speaker 1: But I wouldn't run out to bet anything necessarily just yet.

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Speaker 1: I would wait as long as possible to see what

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Speaker 1: the COVID situations are, certainly for various teams and even

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Speaker 1: teams again that we don't know about yet. Just you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll have to see what may come in the next

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Speaker 1: couple of days. But Pat our last podcast we were

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Speaker 1: on for the best bets. We were on opposite sides

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Speaker 1: of a game, as you well know, and that game

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Speaker 1: turned out to be I don't know if both of

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Speaker 1: us were right or neither one of us was right.

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Speaker 1: The forty nine ers wound up winning that game, so

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Speaker 1: I wound up being on the right side. So we'll

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Speaker 1: see whether or not we'll be joining forces on some

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Speaker 1: games this week, or whether we'll have some difference of opinions.

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Speaker 1: But if so, I look forward to that part. Remember

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Speaker 1: what this one is, guys. This is our three best

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Speaker 1: bets of the weekend moneyline spreads totals whatever. We'll quickly

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Speaker 1: run through the remaining spreads games that we don't talk

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Speaker 1: about a couple of things before we start. Hopefully you

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Speaker 1: are watching this podcast as well or listening to it

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Speaker 1: on our podcast feed, but you should subscribe to our

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. That

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Speaker 1: really helps us out if you listen to this podcast

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Speaker 1: at all, Subscribing to the channel is an easy way

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Speaker 1: to show your support, and we're also giving away a

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Speaker 1: sign sag on Barkley helmet. By the way, if you

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Speaker 1: do subscribe, then go to Bettingpros dot com slash helmet.

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Speaker 1: And also let me remind you about the latest offer

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Speaker 1: from bet MGM. New customers bet ten dollars win two

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars if the team you bet on scores a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 1: Ten dollars win two hundred dollars in free bets. It's

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Speaker 1: code Juice one hundred. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

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Speaker 1: and Wyoming. And again that is our new offer from

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Speaker 1: bet MGM Juice one hundred. Brief recap of last week

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Speaker 1: read Wallach went two and one. He hit on the

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Speaker 1: Steelers getting one and a half from the Titans and

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Speaker 1: the Bengals getting two and a half, but he missed

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Speaker 1: on the Patriots getting two and a half from the Colts.

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Speaker 1: I went one and two. I hit on the Jets

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Speaker 1: getting ten points from the Dolphins. Pardon me, pat got that?

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Speaker 1: I bet on the Jets. How about that? We went crazy?

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Speaker 1: I know that was the bet I hit. I missed

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Speaker 1: on the Packers laying five and a half to the

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Speaker 1: Ravens and the Bills Panthers under forty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: I believe the total went to forty five there and

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Speaker 1: the Packers pat right like I got it early. I said,

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Speaker 1: bet it early. The spread was I don't know nine

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Speaker 1: or something with the time of clothes, maybe went down

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Speaker 1: the seven or whatever. So it's like, yes, got the

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Speaker 1: best of the number. Still no good, but your Packers

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Speaker 1: did win. Congratulations there, okay. Oh by the way, Pat

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Speaker 1: before we get going, I don't know whether or not

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Speaker 1: you are you were planning to take the Saints, but

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Speaker 1: Taysom Hill has just been placed in the reserve COVID

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Speaker 1: nightteen oh, and the team is planning to start ian

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Speaker 1: book this weekend. So yeah, so you can deal with

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Speaker 1: that if you were, were you planning to take that

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Speaker 1: game at all? I was.

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Speaker 2: I was anxious to talk about the total with you,

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Speaker 2: which is already at thirty nine. I mean, what's it

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Speaker 2: gonna be nowt twenty nine after like, this is gonna

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Speaker 2: be one of the lowest totals of the season.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. And because Trevor STI means also out,

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Speaker 1: So yeah, this is this is something. Okay, we'll figure

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Speaker 1: this all out later, but in time. In the meantime, Bat,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about our best bets again. Anything you want, money, line, spread, total,

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Speaker 1: whatever you want. You're the guest on this podcast, Pat,

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Speaker 1: so I defer to you here. Please give me your

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Speaker 1: favorite bet for the weekend.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's start off with You know, I hate

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Speaker 2: generally taking double digit road favorites, but I'm going to

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Speaker 2: start with the LA Chargers at the Houston Texans laying

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Speaker 2: ten and I the Chargers, they obviously need this. They're

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Speaker 2: eight and six, They're in the thick of the wild

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Speaker 2: card hunt. They can not afford an untimely stumble against

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Speaker 2: a team that, by every metric that I have seen

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Speaker 2: is regarded as the worst in the NFL, whether it's

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Speaker 2: a you know, strength like a power ranking thing by

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Speaker 2: you know, Massy Peabody or Sagarin or whoever it is,

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Speaker 2: or the PFF grades like everyone as Houston it's the

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Speaker 2: worst team in the league, even though they've managed to

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Speaker 2: stumble into three wins this year. But I just don't

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Speaker 2: think they have enough to hold off the Chargers and

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Speaker 2: keep this one close. The Chargers will have had some

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Speaker 2: extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night in

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Speaker 2: Week fifteen. Got a lot of firepower on offense. I

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Speaker 2: mean it's not just Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler like

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Speaker 2: Mike Williams. I know it was guite news on COVID, right,

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Speaker 2: Josh Palmer is still a very good third wide out.

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Speaker 2: He's been a nice rookie surprise. So I think they

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Speaker 2: have too much firepower and just will overwhelm the Texans

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Speaker 2: here in the one flaw the Chargers have dan is

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Speaker 2: their run defense and maybe they're tackling and this is

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Speaker 2: the one team in the league that just can't do

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Speaker 2: any damage to them on the ground with Rex Burghead

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Speaker 2: and David John like the Texans running game as a joke,

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Speaker 2: so they are not going to be able to seize

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Speaker 2: on that one weakness the Chargers might have.

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Speaker 1: Does it matter to you whatsoever about the current COVID

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Speaker 1: situation with them, with the fact that both Austin Eckler

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Speaker 1: we mentioned Geyton, but Eckler's on the COVID list and

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Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks is also on the COVID. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: Cooks is out right, I mean whatever, But does that

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Speaker 1: matter to you whatsoever? If either or both play?

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Speaker 2: It doesn't know because I mean they've they've got a

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Speaker 2: capable I guess running back by committee if Eckler is

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Speaker 2: not cleared with Justin Jackson, who actually looked good against

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs last year. You know, I don't think Joshua

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Speaker 2: Kelly is any great running back. I don't know about

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Speaker 2: Larry Rowntree, who would probably be active, but I just

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Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna matter. Like I think they would

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Speaker 2: be able to do more damage through the air and

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Speaker 2: have just enough of a running game to provide some balance.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So if I have to go on this game,

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Speaker 1: I would be with you because I do think that

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Speaker 1: the likelihood is that the Chargers cover this. It's really

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Speaker 1: tough for me to get a road team, regardless of

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Speaker 1: anything else, laying you know, double digit points. But this

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Speaker 1: does strike me as a game where you're right. This

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Speaker 1: is not a game where the Chargers can sort of

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Speaker 1: come out and be flat. You know, they have to

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Speaker 1: come out. They have to keep their foot on the

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Speaker 1: gas pedal. They have to put this game away and

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Speaker 1: not mess around. The extra rest is a big deal

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Speaker 1: at this point in the season, where everybody's exhaust and

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Speaker 1: everything like that. They won't have Joey Bosa, right, he's

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Speaker 1: declared out I think right for this game already because

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Speaker 1: of the cop believe so, and because I think it's

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Speaker 1: on back, so I think he's already out. So that

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Speaker 1: does obviously hurt the defense, but I don't think it matters,

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Speaker 1: so I would lean towards you. But again, a road

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Speaker 1: favorite of double digit points, which is really tough for

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Speaker 1: me to make my favorites. So I'm interested that you are,

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Speaker 1: But this is not one we'll fight about. Would you

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Speaker 1: like me to give you one that we're gonna fight about,

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Speaker 1: pat Let's do it, Dan, that's the Bills visiting the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: laying two and a half. Now Tomorrow is Christmas Eve.

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Speaker 1: I will be spending it with my wife's family and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to play this for my father in law

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Speaker 1: with whom I'm very close and my brother in law,

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Speaker 1: who I'm also very close with, and I imagine that

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Speaker 1: they will come out and tell me I'm an idiot

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Speaker 1: for taking the Bills getting the two and a half,

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Speaker 1: which is fine. Bill and Kevin, I hope you're listening

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Speaker 1: to this. I love you, guys. I hope you have

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Speaker 1: a great day today. But you're gonna lose this game.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bills are gonna are gonna win this

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Speaker 1: game here, pat like, I would take them on the

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Speaker 1: money line, but you know, moneyline, BET's what I mean.

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Speaker 1: I'll sprinkle on the money line because if you're going

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Speaker 1: to take anybody as a short, you know, dog, you

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Speaker 1: might as well take them on the money line as well.

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Speaker 1: But my official pick will be two and a half.

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Speaker 1: There are some twos out there. I'll take the two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Obviously, we have some issues with the

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Speaker 1: Bills right now. They've got you know, Tredavius Whites out

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Speaker 1: for the year. There's no Cole Beasley in this game

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Speaker 1: because he tests a positive and he's unvaccinated. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: assume Emmanuel Sanders isn't gonna play here. Pat Both teams

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Speaker 1: here are are good and pretty even. I feel like

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Speaker 1: when you look at the metrics, right, billse are you know,

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Speaker 1: third in overall DVOA. Pats are fifth on defense, the

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Speaker 1: Bills are second in EPA per play, the Patriots are third.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just I'm tired of like I haven't been

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Speaker 1: the whole year pat But I just I'm not trusting

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones basically to be able to win these types

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Speaker 1: of games.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I know they beat the Bills in the windiest game

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Speaker 1: in the history of mankind where he threw three passes,

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Speaker 1: but you see what happens if he is forced to

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Speaker 1: put the game on his shoulders, like we saw against

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Speaker 1: the Colts, it's gonna be really difficult for him to

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Speaker 1: do that. They don't have the playmakers in the receiving game,

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Speaker 1: and he's a rookie. And we saw how much success

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Speaker 1: the Patriots had running the ball against the Bills, of course,

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Speaker 1: but even then, pat they still only scored fourteen points

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Speaker 1: despite the fact that they could run the ball at

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Speaker 1: will in that game. Had the Bills had any semblance

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Speaker 1: of a running game, or had they even just let

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen throw the ball regularly, even a little more,

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Speaker 1: even in that wind, they would have won the game.

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Speaker 1: So Damian Harris is hopefully going to play here, but

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Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne's on the COVID list, Nelson Aguiler is probably out,

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Speaker 1: and kill Harry maybe out. The Bills have issues on

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Speaker 1: the offensive line again with COVID John Feliciano Deon Dawkins.

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Speaker 1: The Bills are just a better team here. I think

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Speaker 1: pat like in a vacuum, they're a better team. It's

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Speaker 1: really as simple as that. Too evenly matched teams. It's

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Speaker 1: a second divisional game, so you assume it's going to

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Speaker 1: be tough. I'm just going to take the underdog and

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Speaker 1: the one that doesn't have the rookie quarterback here, especially

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Speaker 1: if they're getting points. So I imagine that you have

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Speaker 1: a differing opinion, and I would like to hear it.

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Speaker 2: I do well, let me be your sparring partner before

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Speaker 2: your main event with Bill and Kevin.

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Speaker 1: Can you do it?

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Speaker 2: Chris? The way that is not good at I should

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Speaker 2: have on my podcast this week, I said the Wolf

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Speaker 2: of Rodo Street. He's a good Boston guy. I've been

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Speaker 2: paying more careful attention so I could mimic more accurately.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know if my argument is going to

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Speaker 2: be quite as thorough as yours. But in that first meeting,

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Speaker 2: we saw the Patriots just abandoned the running game, say

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Speaker 2: we're gonna run this and uh, the Bills, oh sorry,

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Speaker 2: abandoned the passing game, throw three passes, run it down

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Speaker 2: their throats for being an outdoor buffalo team. The Bills

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Speaker 2: are a finesse team. It totally blies their location geographically,

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Speaker 2: but they are a finesse team. And I think the

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Speaker 2: Patriots like took pride in just beating the hell out

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Speaker 2: of them in that game physically two weeks ago and

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Speaker 2: winning the game that way, And I think they're going

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Speaker 2: to try to play that way again and run and

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Speaker 2: they have to again here the first time it was

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Speaker 2: the wind. This time it's their complete shortage of wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: I guess Jacoby Myers is basically like the only healthy

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Speaker 2: receiver they have. They're going to line up two tight

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Speaker 2: ends run it probably sixty five percent of the time

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Speaker 2: against the Bills, and the Bills don't have a great

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Speaker 2: run dye. You know they it's either going to be

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Speaker 2: a lot of Ramandre Stevenson or a Stevenson Harris combo,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're going to have some success as

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Speaker 2: they did before. I mean, they didn't hit many long runs,

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Speaker 2: but they moved the chains and they got that one

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Speaker 2: long run from Damien Harris for the touchdown. And then defensively,

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Speaker 2: like I love this Patriots pass defense, Like I think

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Speaker 2: it's the best pass defense in the NFL. Their secondary

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Speaker 2: is just you know, air tights. I mean, maybe maybe

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Speaker 2: Jalen Mills isn't like the best cornerback, but other than that,

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Speaker 2: I mean it's there's no weakness in that secondary, and

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Speaker 2: they can put pressure on quarterbacks with only four which

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Speaker 2: is kind of key against the Bills because that stops

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Speaker 2: like if you have your linebackers staying home, like Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen probably isn't going to do quite as much damage

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Speaker 2: as he could. Although you know, last game he I

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Speaker 2: don't can't remember how many rushing yards he had against them.

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Speaker 2: Did he go over a hundred against the No? Against

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Speaker 2: I can't remember how how many rushing yards he had

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Speaker 2: against them, Yeah, yeah, two weeks ago. I can't Anyway,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. And like Devin Singletary. The Bills have

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Speaker 2: had this inconsistent running game all year. I like that

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Speaker 2: they've basically narrowed it down to having Devin Singletary be

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Speaker 2: their main guy, or at least we think so, because

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Speaker 2: they've had faked us on their backs before. But like,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to have enough to

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Speaker 2: just consistently. It's just not the Bills m to really

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Speaker 2: like pound away with a running back. You know, they

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Speaker 2: don't win games that way. So yeah, I have some

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Speaker 2: concerns about their ability to consistently move the ball on

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Speaker 2: this Patriots defense, which is so good against the pass,

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Speaker 2: and I think the Patriots are just a more physical

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Speaker 2: game being at home outdoors in Foxborough. Like I just

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Speaker 2: I kind of like the Pats in this one. Dan,

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Speaker 2: It's not a best bet, but I am going to

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Speaker 2: be putting something on the Pats laying the points.

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Speaker 1: All right, So good. We can use this for our

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Speaker 1: Sunday night podcast again, we do a fancy podcast on

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Speaker 1: Sunday nights. So this will again whoever wins this game,

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Speaker 1: I will say pat will be able to kind of

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Speaker 1: lout it over the other one. But I will say

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Speaker 1: that even with that game, which by the way had

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Speaker 1: one like however long Damien Harris's touchdown run was early.

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Speaker 2: On sixty eight or something.

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Speaker 1: They moved the ball by the way, I thinksh Allen

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Speaker 1: had thirty nine yards rushing or something or thing. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So even with that, even with them being a to

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Speaker 1: move the ball at will, which was just crazy, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: they literally ran the same play over and over again

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Speaker 1: and the Bills can have them. They had fourteen points,

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Speaker 1: like they this was not sort of a thing where

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Speaker 1: they could put up points at will because they can't

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Speaker 1: pass the ball and they're not gonna be or at

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Speaker 1: least in that game with the win. I don't expect

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Speaker 1: them to be able to do it here. Again, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned Jacobe Myers and Hunter Henry. Fine, but I

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Speaker 1: do think that the Bills newfound running game, and you're right,

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Speaker 1: we've been headfaked before. But I think the difference here

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Speaker 1: is that they understand they have to have a semblance

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Speaker 1: of a running game. They have to because otherwise if

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Speaker 1: they're just sort of gonna be this passing offense where

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Speaker 1: there are down weapons and where teams have sort of

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Speaker 1: adapted to them. And Josh Allen isn't playing quite as

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Speaker 1: well as he did last year. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to attack them. And again, even in that game,

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Speaker 1: what was the final score that on? Fourteen to ten?

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Speaker 1: Is that right? So yeah, they missed you know, if

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Speaker 1: you know Tyler Bass doesn't miss a you know, twenty

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Speaker 1: yards field goal or anything like that, they probably win

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Speaker 1: that game, you know, in that game. I just think

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Speaker 1: they're a better team.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 1: Now again, I have been fading two teams this most

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Speaker 1: of the year. Not always sometimes I back them, but

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Speaker 1: most of the year Patriots have been one of them.

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Speaker 1: Has not always worked out, certainly. I'll talk about the

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Speaker 1: other one here with my second pick. But I really

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Speaker 1: like this betpat I really do. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: assuming that everything stays the same, like, I will be

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Speaker 1: happy to also tease up the Bills here to eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. This is a prime teaser piece for

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Speaker 1: me to bilt like that. I don't see the Patriots

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Speaker 1: winning this game by ten points, like under any circumstances,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think at the very least it'll be

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Speaker 1: a close game, maybe they win by three. If that happens,

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think the Bills went out right,

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Speaker 1: But I'll probably also tease the Bills up to eight

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Speaker 1: and a half from the two and a half as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, that's our disagreement. Go on to your second pick.

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Speaker 2: All right. So we saw the Bears play one of

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Speaker 2: the worst games I can ever remember seeing seeing a

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Speaker 2: team play just totally undisciplined and awful. And even though

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Speaker 2: like a team Hicks, their nose tackle just ruined, single

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Speaker 2: handedly ruined the center of the Minnesota offensive line, like

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Speaker 2: the Bears just repeatedly destroyed themselves against Minnesota. And I mean,

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Speaker 2: this has the look of a team that has completely

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Speaker 2: quit on its head coach. I mean, just playing so

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Speaker 2: stupidly and like the offense is struggling. You know. They

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Speaker 2: they only got their lone touchdown at the end on

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Speaker 2: the last play on a nineteen yard desperation heave where

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Speaker 2: I don't even think the guy actually crossed the goal line. Right,

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Speaker 2: They're playing a Seattle team in Seattle that, despite being

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Speaker 2: five and nine, has scored exactly as many points as

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Speaker 2: they've allowed this season. They've scored two hundred and eighty two,

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Speaker 2: they've allowed two hundred and eighty two. So Seattle's kind

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Speaker 2: of unlucky to be a five and nine team. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a better team than that. The defense has

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Speaker 2: been like sneaky effective the last month and a half

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Speaker 2: or so. I know Russell Wilson is not firing on

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Speaker 2: all cylinders. And you know that the idea that Rishad

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Speaker 2: Penny was going to be some sort of savior out

358
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Speaker 2: of the backfield was maybe torpedoed a bit in Week fifteen.

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Speaker 2: But like it's a functional offense and man like giving

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Speaker 2: less than a touchdown to this just horrendous Bears outfit

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Speaker 2: that has quit on its head coach in Seattle, you know,

362
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Speaker 2: traveling all the way to the Pacific Northwest on over

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Speaker 2: the holidays, Like, I can't imagine they're going to be

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Speaker 2: real excited about being away from home. I'm all over

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Speaker 2: Seattle on this, like absolutely six and a half points.

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Speaker 2: I'd give like nine and a half points in this one.

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to wipe out the Bears. Wow,

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Speaker 2: they're just a much better team, Dan.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk through some of it then. First

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Speaker 1: of all, the Seahawks, oddly enough, the Bears playing on

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Speaker 1: a Monday night are on the longer week, right because

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks had to play Tuesday, right, I'm not crazy?

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Speaker 2: Right? Yes?

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Speaker 1: All right, there's a little bit Oddly enough, the Bears

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Speaker 1: get the extra rest in this one. The Bears were

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Speaker 1: I mean, you were absolutely right in Pat. That the

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Speaker 1: beauty of us sort of here is that, you know,

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Speaker 1: we talk all the time, we message about football all

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Speaker 1: the time during the games, and we are just going

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Speaker 1: back and forth, especially with Yeats again one of our

381
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Speaker 1: colleagues here talking about the Bears and how undisciplined they are,

382
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Speaker 1: and their whole secondary was out and still though Pat

383
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Speaker 1: like the defense at least put up an effort there,

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Speaker 1: like those I mean they held down justin Jefferson, they

385
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Speaker 1: held on Kirk Cousins like, the defense put up a

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Speaker 1: decent effort here. And the Seahawks, who I thought and

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Speaker 1: probably should have. I mean, I'm not going to say

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Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side, but I feel

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Speaker 1: like they should have covered the seven point spread against

390
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Speaker 1: the Rams, Like I feel like that was sort of

391
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Speaker 1: where but they they're so off and Russ the deep

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Speaker 1: ball man, like I thought maybe he was finally coming

393
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Speaker 1: back to form. He looked terrible in that game. The

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Speaker 1: Seahawks laying almost a touchdown to anybody makes me nervous. Pat,

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Speaker 1: It's so it surprises me a little bit that you

396
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Speaker 1: think they're just going to absolutely steamroll the Bears here.

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Speaker 2: Getting Locket back is going to help getting him off

398
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Speaker 2: the COVID list. As much as Russell Wilson has struggled,

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Speaker 2: I still think he's a much better quarterback than Kirk Cousins,

400
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Speaker 2: which I think was a big I mean that interception

401
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins through that arm punt. I mean, like Cousins

402
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Speaker 2: is just as I said, and it drew some iron

403
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Speaker 2: on Twitter, Like I think Cousins is a bad quarterback

404
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 2: masquerading is a good quarterback. And you know Russ is

405
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 2: just a lot better, especially when he's got Tyler Lockett

406
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Speaker 2: and he and DK have not been clicking this year,

407
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Speaker 2: but if he is Locket, like one receiver he can

408
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 2: totally trust and be in sync with, Like I think

409
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Speaker 2: that's going to be enough to hit on a couple

410
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Speaker 2: of big plays and keep the chains moving and put

411
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Speaker 2: a points against this Bears defense. Like, yeah, the Bears.

412
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Speaker 2: The Bears defense is not trash. They just play stupid

413
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Speaker 2: sometimes and like some of the taunting and ridiculous league stuff,

414
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Speaker 2: like and are we going to see that end with

415
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Speaker 2: a team that is quit on its head coach, Like

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Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean, they just there's no discipline

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Speaker 2: on that team. And like that offense, Dan, I mean, oh,

418
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Speaker 2: David Montgomery has not gotten anything going since coming back,

419
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Speaker 2: and it's because the offensive line is terrible. You know,

420
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Speaker 2: justin fields is as decent as the numbers might have been, Like,

421
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Speaker 2: he is just not ready for prime time as a

422
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Speaker 2: passer yet. Yeah, man on the road against a pretty

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Speaker 2: professional defense, I just do not see them putting up

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Speaker 2: more than about fourteen points seventeen points tops.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you but you think that the Seahawks then

426
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Speaker 1: are obviously going to put up you know, twenty four

427
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Speaker 1: maybe ish, that's.

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Speaker 2: Fair, I mean fourteen or seventeen top stan and like yeah,

429
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Speaker 2: three and are in play for sure, that's fair.

430
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 1: That's fair. Yeah, I'm not I'm not going to join. Yeah,

431
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go against you because it's basically almost like,

432
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 1: please don't make me back either one of these teams.

433
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: But I certainly do have some I it's hard to

434
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: see the Bears keeping it close in Seattle in particular

435
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 1: with this, so I'm gonna avoid it another game. It's

436
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: a lot, it's a lot of ugly stuff. This week, Pat,

437
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: I think we can agree with that. I am going

438
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 1: to continue to fade the Bengals as I did when

439
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: you were on this podcast last although I did like

440
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 1: them getting getting the two and a half or three

441
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: from Denver. I'm going to fade them here though, and

442
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Ravens getting three here in

443
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 1: Cincinnati from the Bengals. I admit I'm a little nervous

444
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: about this one, but it's hard for me to see

445
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: the Bengals totally blowing out the Ravens, even though they

446
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: did it earlier this year. This isn't quite like a

447
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 1: must win for either team, but it's kind of a

448
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 1: must win, like they can each make the playoffs if

449
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,199
Speaker 1: they don't, but it's going to be really hard for

450
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 1: them to be able to win the division really if

451
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: you lose this game. It's the teams are pretty even overall,

452
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 1: so I basically will start there. Baltimore sixteenth in overall DVA,

453
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: the Bengals are nineteenth. I've tried to point out where

454
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: the Bengals are in DVA the whole year because I

455
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 1: think that sort of illustrates exactly how good they are.

456
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 1: They're a very middling team. It's kind of a classic

457
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: Bilo Sell high spot. The Ravens have now lost three games,

458
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: three straight losses by combined four points. Okay, that's crazy

459
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 1: four points, and they're combined three losses. The Bengals are

460
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: coming off the win in Denver. When all else fails, Pat,

461
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: I go with the better coach team that is the Ravens.

462
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: I know John Harvon's catch a lot of crap for

463
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: his two point conversions. I didn't really have a problem

464
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: with any of it. But you know, again, with no secondary,

465
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: with Tyler Huntley, he just keeps them in games. They

466
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 1: play hard. They're going to play a tight game here.

467
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: I don't see them getting blown out. And I don't

468
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: trust Sack Tayler whatsoever. I think the Bengals are a

469
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: lot of smoke and mirrors. The Ravens are going to

470
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: be as motivated as possible. I know the Bengals will

471
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: be too, but again, they got trounced in the previous

472
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 1: game against the Bengals. They're pissed off about these losses.

473
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 1: It's a revenge spot for them. I know that the

474
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: Ravens secondary is horrific right now because they're so banged

475
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 1: up and everything, like that, but since he just is

476
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: not consistent. I mean, we saw that again, Pat, with

477
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers secondary. That was one of the

478
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: things we talked about, right, how decimated it was, and

479
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: the Bengals really weren't able to take advantage of that.

480
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon is banged up. I think he'll play, but

481
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: again he's banged up in this one. You know, you

482
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,719
Speaker 1: look at how they've done the loss of the Jets.

483
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 1: They were destroyed by the Browns, then they destroyed the Raiders,

484
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: and they beat the crap out of the Steelers, then

485
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 1: they get blown out by the Charters. It's just a

486
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 1: very inconsistent young team. I don't really see them being

487
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: able to win this game. It doesn't matter to me

488
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 1: if Lamar Jackson plays, It really doesn't like. If he's

489
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 1: healthy enough to play, that's good. It boosts their chances.

490
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: But I do think a full week of practice with

491
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: Tyler Helnley should be fine. The second divisional game here, Pat.

492
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 1: This is also a theme for me second divisional games.

493
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: They're always close. I'm getting almost a field goal from

494
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 1: a team I usually like it. I lean towards the Ravens,

495
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: so I'm going to take them getting the three points.

496
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 1: I admit I'm a little uneasy about it. We were

497
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 1: on different sides of the Bengals game last time, Pat,

498
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 1: are we on different sides of the Bengals game this time?

499
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 2: I think we are again. Dan. I'm I'm telling you

500
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 2: though in advance, I'm not going to touch this game

501
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 2: because I cannot get on the right side of a

502
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 2: Ravens game.

503
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: You have to bet them, don't you.

504
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: I have to bet them for my pool every week.

505
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 2: And I have lost the last two weeks when I

506
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 2: thought I had made the right wager betting against them

507
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 2: both times, only for them to furiously rally back into

508
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 2: a couple of covers. I mean, talk about the back

509
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: door being open for covers for the Ravens the last

510
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 2: two weeks.

511
00:25:58,160 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: My god, the Browns game insane.

512
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 2: But yeah, and that's that's kind of what worries me, Dan,

513
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 2: that they have had to like stage these big rallies

514
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 2: just to come back and lose close games. I mean

515
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: they and bless the Ravens for like continuing to play

516
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 2: their tails off when they have been so decimated by injuries,

517
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 2: and like they could have easily flown the white flag

518
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 2: against the Packers last week. When the Packers. You know,

519
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: they couldn't stop the Packers, but like the offense just

520
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 2: kept fighting back, fighting back, fighting back to make it

521
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 2: a game. And man, I just I can't back a

522
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 2: team this decimated, especially in the secondary, when you're going

523
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 2: up against a team with you know, one of the

524
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 2: most potent groups of wide receivers in the league against

525
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 2: a quarterback who I think is like I mean, if

526
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: it's possible to call the former number one overall draft

527
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: pick underrated, I think Burrow is kind of underrated. Like,

528
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 2: I think he's a fantastic passer, and the numbers have

529
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: not always matched just how good he's been I think recently.

530
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have a hard time backing the Ravens

531
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 2: with this one just being so under man. I agree

532
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: that Harbaugh's a really good coach and that this team

533
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 2: just has a lot of spirit and grit, but man, uh,

534
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: like just the injuries on defense, the injury at quarterback.

535
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 2: Huntley has been good, but like, I don't trust him

536
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 2: to hang with Burrow in a shootout.

537
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it, I completely get it. You know.

538
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: For me, it's really like the Bengals have had opportunities

539
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 1: to put up you know, big passing games, you know,

540
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: late and again against San Francisco, and they just didn't

541
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: I think, you know, with this being a divisional game,

542
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 1: they're always close, usually, especially the second one. I think

543
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: with the weak understanding, I just I trust Harbaugh to

544
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: be able to have some sort of plan to keep

545
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: this close. So yeah, I will go with the Ravens.

546
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: The Bengals have been very jacky and high, no question

547
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: about that. Another reason I don't. I don't want anything

548
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 2: to do with this game.

549
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 1: That's actually a really good point, because I do. I

550
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 1: haven't always faded them. Again, I've sort of been buying

551
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: into them on occasion with some of these games. Again

552
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: last week as well, I liked I liked them getting

553
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: points in Denver. I couldn't understand that spread, like I

554
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: would have taken them on the money line for sure,

555
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 1: But uh, in this one, I don't know. Man, this

556
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: strikes me as the what's the bad one? Mister Hyde? Yeah,

557
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 1: mister Hyde version of the doctor declas the hide But yeah,

558
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: you're right. It is a little hard to handicap them

559
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 1: because they they are like different teams sometimes when they

560
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: come up all right, last pick pat what he got?

561
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, this will be quick because it's kind of covering

562
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 2: old ground. I like the under in the New England

563
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: Buffalo game forty three and a half. I mentioned my

564
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 2: concerns about Buffalo being able to move the ball and

565
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: find balance against that New England team with all that

566
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 2: talent they have in the secondary. J C. Jackson, Devin mccordy, Dugger,

567
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: like that's just so hard and being down wide receivers.

568
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to sustain much of a

569
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: running game. That's just not in the Bills offensive DNA.

570
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 2: And you know, you express some of the concerns about

571
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 2: mac Jones especially, And here's where you can win your bet, Dan,

572
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: is if like the Bills get a lead, because we

573
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: saw that mac Jones just can't bring them back. Like

574
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 2: as soon as the Colts got that punt block touchdown

575
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 2: to go up fourteen, nothing, Yeah, you felt like that

576
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 2: game was over. It just kind of you know, mac

577
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: Jones digging them out of a big hole. Like that's

578
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: the one thing the Patriots really can't do if they're

579
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 2: going to win a game, is get down early like that.

580
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think this one is going to play under,

581
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,479
Speaker 2: maybe not much under, but I don't see it flying

582
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: way over the total forty three and a half. I

583
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: just think it's a solid percentage play to take the

584
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 2: under here, especially if there's any sort of weather again

585
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 2: in New England this week.

586
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I like it. I definitely like it. So

587
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: I have been cold on totals like so I'm sticking

588
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,719
Speaker 1: with spreads for this week. But I do like it.

589
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: And again last week, I really like the Bills Panthers under,

590
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: and again it went over by half a point. Yeah,

591
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,479
Speaker 1: I know it's a chiller, but anyway, yes, I do

592
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: like it as well. Again the Chris Raybond. Why does

593
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: everybody hate betten unders? You're winning as soon as the

594
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: game starts, So I agree with that. I'm with you

595
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: on that one. And maybe I can see maybe a

596
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: same game teaser there. Maybe I'll tease the total up

597
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: and the Bills up as well. All Right, my last

598
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 1: one is probably the grossest pick I've ever made, I

599
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: think on this I've made some gross picks and that's

600
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: what you gotta do. It's actually the Raiders they're giving

601
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: one in our consensus. Ods you look at the various

602
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: books Raiders against the Broncos, they are giving one and

603
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM. They are getting one at

604
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: FanDuel and DraftKings. They are getting half a point at

605
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: Fox Bet, they are giving half a point at points Bet.

606
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 1: So it's really all over the place. At this point,

607
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go the official consensus line is laying one.

608
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: That's this is ninety percent about Drew Lock. Pat. You

609
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: know Teddy Bridgwater is going to be out for this game.

610
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: That is a massive downgrade to me. Even though Teddy

611
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: hasn't been great this year, just Drew Lock, I've seen

612
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: enough from him to understand that I don't feel great

613
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,719
Speaker 1: about him. The Raiders obviously beat them earlier in this

614
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: year pretty substantially. This is obviously a different team. They're

615
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: not playing nearly as well. There's gonna be no Darren

616
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 1: Waller offensively, there's no Jonathan Abram Like. They're not as

617
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: good as they were earlier in the year. But the

618
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: Raiders always cover against the Broncos. Oddly enough aided their

619
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: last ten meetings, and I realized it almost lost against

620
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: a Browns team led by Nick Mullins, but they did

621
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: outgain Cleveland by like one hundred yards in that game.

622
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: And this game actually sets up well for the Raiders

623
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: The Raiders have a lot of explosive plays. That's one

624
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: of the things that they do well. The Broncos secondary

625
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 1: is good, but they do not defend the explosive play

626
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: all that well. We saw that in the first matchup.

627
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: So if you're the Raiders, you just basically have to

628
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: commit yourself to stopping the run. It's all you care about.

629
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: Make Drew Lock beat you. And I think there's such

630
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 1: a little chance of Drew Lock beating you, especially for

631
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 1: a team like the Raiders. They get a lot of

632
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: pressure without blitzing a ton, which I think is a

633
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: good recipe for a guy like Lock. So it's uncomfortable

634
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: to be backing a Raiders team that half the time

635
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: just looks dead in the water here pat and especially

636
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: against the Browns. But man, if I have the chance

637
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: to basically just have a pickham game against Drew Lock,

638
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna do it. So I'm going with the

639
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: Raiders here at home against the Broncos, laying a point.

640
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: I don't know how you feel about that one.

641
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a layoff for me. If you force

642
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: me to bet it, I'd probably agree and go with

643
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 2: the Raiders because I have some of the same feelings

644
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 2: about Drew Lock. I don't know, like I feel like

645
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: he could maybe surprise us with a non terrible game,

646
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,239
Speaker 2: Like I don't think he's just I actually think there

647
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 2: are worst backups in the league. I don't think Drew

648
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: Lock should ever be considered as a potential starter for

649
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 2: anyone ever again. But one thing that kind of worries me,

650
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 2: like if we don't see Darren Waller come back this week, yep,

651
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: Like passing offense has struggled leg I mean to the

652
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 2: point that Derek Carr. I think in games Waller has

653
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,719
Speaker 2: played this year, average is like three hundred and ten

654
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 2: yards a game passing, and then gave Darren Waller doesn't play,

655
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: average is like two forty and has thrown. Yeah, it

656
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: was seventeen touchdowns in eleven games with him, and like

657
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 2: uh four and four without him, or seventeen ten and

658
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 2: five and five with him. So it's kind of a

659
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 2: toothless offense without Waller, which is a concern in the

660
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: Denver defense is pretty credible. So I just worry that

661
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 2: this is the kind of game that could stay within

662
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 2: one score the entire time and just get really close.

663
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 2: Like I understand why the spread is oscillating between you know,

664
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: a point or half a point either way and might

665
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: land as a pick him. But yeah, to me, this

666
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 2: is just kind of a stay away.

667
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I get it. I'm not gonna I'm not

668
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 1: gonna go play about it. Then over under is forty

669
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: one and a half, by the way, which I don't

670
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: hate the under in that one either, because I do

671
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: think that points are probably going to be a little

672
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 1: difficult to score here. That is a low one though.

673
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: All right, well, recap everything at the end, Pat, But

674
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: why don't we very quickly run through the remaining spreads

675
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: and just give our five second take on it.

676
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: Good with that, yep, let's do it.

677
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 1: Your packers are home taking on the Browns. This is

678
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: Saturday laying seven and a half.

679
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 2: If you made me pick a side, I would probably

680
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 2: pick my packers to cover. And you know, Dan, I'm

681
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 2: sort of a pessimistic packers better, So you know, maybe

682
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: that means a little something more that I like them.

683
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 2: I just don't think they're going to face plants against

684
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 2: a pretty limited offense on Christmas in Lambeau. Yep, I

685
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 2: think I like the under more. And at first my

686
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 2: instinct of pon seeing what is it forty six.

687
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: Forty six, forty five and a half, forty six draftings,

688
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: So but forty five and a half consensus.

689
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So my first thought was over. But then

690
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 2: the way to score on the Packers is with the

691
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 2: big home run plays, not ball control. And that's sort

692
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: of the antithesis of what the Browns do. They are

693
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 2: a ball control team. You know, maybe the occasional deep

694
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: shot to Donovan People's jones. But like, the Packers have

695
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 2: given up a lot of forty plus yard pass plays

696
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: and weirdly, they've given up one of the fewest number

697
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: of twenty plus yards pass plays in the league. Like,

698
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: beat them over the top, or don't beat them at all. Like,

699
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 2: it's hard to do ball control against the Packers. And

700
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 2: the more important thing for the under here, Dan, these

701
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: are two of the slowest paced teams in the league.

702
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 2: I mean, the Packers routinely do not snap the ball

703
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 2: until the play clock is at zero or some people

704
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 2: would contend past zero. There have been a few instances

705
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: where they've maybe gotten away with what should have been

706
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 2: delayed games. And the Browns are twenty ninth in pace

707
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: number of seconds between snap. So this is going to

708
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 2: be a fast moving game. They should get in under

709
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 2: the three hour mark I would expect. And yeah, so

710
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think forty five and a half

711
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 2: or forty six is going to be a pretty tall

712
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: order for these two teams, even though the Packers passing

713
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: game has really been hitting on all cylinders.

714
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, obviously, I mean we have Mbs right now

715
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 1: in the COVID list, so who knows if he's going

716
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 1: to play. But I do think that if you're the Browns,

717
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: you want to slow this game down as much as possible,

718
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 1: right You want to you know, run the ball obviously

719
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: as they always do, as much as possible, and try

720
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: to slow it down, keep the ball out of Rogers hands.

721
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 1: It lends itself to the under So I don't mind

722
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 1: that play there. I think I probably would lean towards

723
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: the pack if I had to go, but it's a

724
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 1: stay away from me. Are you gonna get to enjoy

725
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 1: this game on Christmas? Pat?

726
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,240
Speaker 2: I will for sure. I will be in a household

727
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: full of Packers fans.

728
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: So wonderful. I love it. Colts against the Cardinals, Pat,

729
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 1: This is a really interesting one. They're visiting Arizona. Cardinals

730
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 1: favored by one. I have very mixed feelings about this game. Pat.

731
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: I've gone back and forth on him.

732
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: I do too. It's hard to endorse the Cardinals, as

733
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: bad as they looked on both sides of the ball

734
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 2: last week against Detroit. But it's always hard to bet

735
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 2: a team that's coming off such a bad performance. But

736
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,439
Speaker 2: I think one of the best bets you can make

737
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 2: in football is to take the embarrassed, humiliated team coming

738
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 2: off a bad loss and a team that's good enough

739
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 2: to do something about it. And I think the Cardinals

740
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 2: perfectly fit that criteria going up against a fat and

741
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 2: happy Indianapolis team that's been playing really well, coming off

742
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: a very convincing victory at home against the Patriots, and

743
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 2: now they have to go on the road. So just

744
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: kind of the formula here has me leaning towards Arizona,

745
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 2: even though it does not feel good after the way

746
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 2: they played against Detroit.

747
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 1: That is exactly correct. That's exactly how I feel about

748
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,479
Speaker 1: a pat which is to say, by the way, Alvin

749
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 1: Cook just placed on the COVID nineteen less Pat So

750
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: sorry trying to get ahead of it, my friend, So

751
00:37:56,560 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: you know, for that one, Yes, that's exactly how I feel.

752
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 1: About it entirely, which is to say, yeah, a lot

753
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 1: of it makes me like the Colts. They're playing really well.

754
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 1: They're an underrated football team. The Cardinals look a little

755
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: bit like they're in disarray. But it is such a

756
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: classic Bilo cell high spot at this point that it

757
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: just makes me feel like if I had to go

758
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 1: one way, ultimately, I would go with the Cardinals, but man,

759
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 1: it is unsettling. Giants are visiting the Eagles, a game

760
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,280
Speaker 1: only a mother could love. Nine and a half. Pat

761
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 1: It's ten at DraftKings, but let's say consensus at nine

762
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: and a half with the Eagles laying that in Philadelphia.

763
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 2: A total stay away for me. I'm definitely not betting

764
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 2: on the Joe Judge side, the depleted side, but I

765
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 2: don't think this Eagles team is good either, and I

766
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: hate them as a double digit favorite pretty much no

767
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 2: matter who they're playing. So I'm just walking away from

768
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 2: this game at a fast pace entirely.

769
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: I mean, especially we saw what just happened when they

770
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: played each other. I mean, you know, Dalen Hurts had

771
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 1: one of the worst games I've ever seen him play.

772
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: So yeah, just run away from this game. Don't watch

773
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: it for any reason whatsoever, unless you're an Eagles fan,

774
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: in which case hopefully you enjoy the victory. My Jets

775
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 1: are taking on the equally putrid Jaguars laying one and

776
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: a half points in New Jersey. What do you think?

777
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 2: Yeah? So I was kind of compelled by the over

778
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 2: or the under at first, like how are these two

779
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 2: teams going to get to forty or forty one points?

780
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 2: And then I realized they're two of the fastest based

781
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 2: teams in the league. Like they operate. I think both

782
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 2: are in the top five as far as number of

783
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: seconds burned between plays. They like to they like to

784
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 2: get after it dan like they like to fail quickly.

785
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, and like, how do you how do you

786
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 2: play this? I mean with Sala on the COVID list,

787
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 2: and like we thought the Jaguars might get the post

788
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: or been Meyer bounced last week and it didn't happen.

789
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 2: Do they get a delayed post Meyer bounce? Like? I

790
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 2: think if you forced me to pick this one, I

791
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 2: would take the Jaguars. Yes, But yeah, I'm not going

792
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 2: to be forced to bet this game or watch this game.

793
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 1: Correct. I will be forced to watch this game because

794
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: it's the Jets, But I think the Jaguars are the

795
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,919
Speaker 1: right side in this game. You know, I think they're

796
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,320
Speaker 1: overall a better team realistically. I just do the Jets,

797
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: especially without a Lodge more. There's no Corey Davis, like

798
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: the Jets are just bereft of weapons. At least the

799
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 1: Jaguars have weapons, and James Robinson might run for one

800
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five yards in this game.

801
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: You know, I know some of the metrics stands say

802
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 2: that the Jets are the slightly better team.

803
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 1: I know, I know what the metrics say, but as

804
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: somebody who's compelled to watch every snap of every Jets game,

805
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,439
Speaker 1: I can't imagine they're a better team than any other

806
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: team in the NFL right now. I understand completely, and

807
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: you know, but yeah, I mean, look, I'm not betting it.

808
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 1: I think that if you have to go one way, though,

809
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: I would go with the Jaguars just because goodness, give

810
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,399
Speaker 1: me the team getting the points in this game. That's

811
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: where I'm going with Bucks are visiting Carolina. Spread's pretty

812
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 1: consistent here at ten. Obviously you've got no Chris Godwin

813
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 1: right now. For the Bucks, you've got no Leonard Fournette.

814
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 1: My guess is you will have no Mike Evans in

815
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: this game, but you will have Antonio Brown and you

816
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: will have Ronald Jones unless there's COVID issues. So Pat,

817
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 1: what do you do? Hear the road team laying ten

818
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 1: in Carolina?

819
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: I think the Bucks are good enough to make the

820
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 2: necessary adjustments after they were just completely thwarted by the

821
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 2: Saints last weekend. Like the Panthers defense is no joke,

822
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: it's good. I don't know if they'll be able to

823
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 2: bring this sort of heat on Tom Brady that the

824
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 2: Saints were able to put on him last week. I

825
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: kind of just think the Buccaneers are going to figure

826
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 2: this out. I kind of lean on them to cover

827
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 2: the number against you know, the Panthers offense is just

828
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: so like, I can't I can't take the Panthers even

829
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:13,240
Speaker 2: with the ten points. I can't take this Panthers offense

830
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 2: against Tom Brady. So I'm leaning Bucks here. I don't

831
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 2: know if I'm gonna bet it or not.

832
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: Yeah I would, I'm not going to bet it, but

833
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: assuming that COVID doesn't wreck everything again, all all recommendations

834
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 1: are assuming COVID does a recornything. I would go with

835
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 1: the Bucks because I do think you're going to see

836
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 1: a bounce back performance here. You know that the Panthers

837
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 1: offensively are not going to be able to put up

838
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 1: that many points no matter what goes on. You've got

839
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: DJ Moore little banged up. But also you saw even

840
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 1: the Bucks with Jones and Fournette before he went out,

841
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: they were able to run the ball pretty well against

842
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: a very difficult Saints run defense. So I do think

843
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 1: that they'll worse, come to worse. He'll be able to

844
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: do that, but you get Brady a week to prepare

845
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 1: for these guys, especially with Brown back, with Gronk, even

846
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: you know, guy like Tyler Johnson. I feel like offensively

847
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: they're going to bounce back and they'll want to make

848
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 1: a statement here, so I will go with them. Lions

849
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: are getting five and a half right now in Atlanta.

850
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: Jared Goff is on the COVID list. Yeah, you know,

851
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: I know, Pat, what you want to do about that.

852
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 1: Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn't. So I don't know

853
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 1: how you can handicap this game.

854
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly it. And it's a weird line Atlanta

855
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 2: minus six and plus one hundred I was seeing this

856
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: morning at DraftKings. So even money for Atlanta to cover

857
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 2: a six point spread, Like, you can't feel good about

858
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 2: Atlanta covering a six point spread against anyone, But I

859
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 2: guess my biggest concern about betting Atlanta is that their

860
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 2: offense can just be wrecked by a good pass rush.

861
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 2: And I think Detroit's pass rush is ranked like thirty

862
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 2: first by PFF. So maybe the Falcons are the right

863
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 2: side on this one, even though I think the Lions

864
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 2: are going to get respect from betters because they've been

865
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 2: a frisky underdog lately and obviously they were really frisky

866
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 2: against the Cardinals last week. But if I had to

867
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 2: play this, I think I would play it on the

868
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 2: Atlanta side and lay the points. As really uncomfortable as

869
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 2: that feels, I think that might be the right bet.

870
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 1: I'm really excited, uh for an excuse to not have

871
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 1: to bet or watch this game because of the COVID situation.

872
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, as of right now, I take the Falcons

873
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: because I do think that that they have the ability

874
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 1: to to put up some big numbers of everything goes right,

875
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: and you're right that lines don't get a lot of pressure,

876
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 1: so that does.

877
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: I would say, I would say, for sure, Dan, I

878
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 2: like I would not want to play this one until

879
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 2: we knew whether was going because golf has been like

880
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: sneakily good in the last four weeks, been pretty good.

881
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: Correct, the Rams are laying three in Minnesota? Who now

882
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 1: maybe down Dalvin Cook. I have no idea with the

883
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 1: with the protocols pat like I I don't know what

884
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 1: being placed on the COVID list on the absolutely means

885
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 1: for Sunday. There was no tweet about him being ruled

886
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:08,240
Speaker 1: out or anything like that with Dalvin Cook. Without Dalvin

887
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 1: Cook three points in Minnesota? What do you think?

888
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 2: And this was already a weird line because the Rams

889
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 2: were two and a half this morning. Last I checked

890
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: before this show, Rams were two and a half point

891
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 2: favorites on the road at Minnesota, but minus won twenty

892
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,320
Speaker 2: five at Draftking.

893
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 1: So that's the difference that Draft Kings juiced up minus

894
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 1: uh minus two and a half. It's minus one ten

895
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: and three at most other books. But that's why it

896
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 1: was minus one twenty five for it.

897
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm definitely not betting the Vikings here. If

898
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 2: I play this one, it's gonna be the Rams. And

899
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,479
Speaker 2: like the Dalvin Cook thing might drive the line enough

900
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: that I just don't want to take it cause, like,

901
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I have a little respect for the Vikings.

902
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,879
Speaker 2: I think they're a decent team, but like they're two

903
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 2: of their most glaring weaknesses the center of their offensive line.

904
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,919
Speaker 2: I mean, they couldn't draft block a Keem Nicks last week.

905
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 2: How are they gonna do against Aaron Donald this week?

906
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 2: My guess is probably not. Well. Yeah, and their defensive backfield,

907
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 2: which is like so bad. They just cut for Shud

908
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 2: Breeland and I mean not that Breeland was any good,

909
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 2: but right, like that's just a disaster. And you know,

910
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 2: how are they gonna stop Cooper Cupp right, Van Jefferson

911
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 2: and Odell Beckham. So I do think the Rams are

912
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 2: gonna win this game. I don't know if they're gonna

913
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 2: blow the Vikings out in Minnesota though, that's another story.

914
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 2: And I'm kind of depends where the line winds up.

915
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 2: But I'm probably not gonna be too interested in playing

916
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 2: this one.

917
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 1: So I think looking at a pat it's like when

918
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: I just take a step back and look at it,

919
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: it strikes me as like it strikes me as the

920
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:49,320
Speaker 1: right play absent Dalvin Cook, would be the really ugly

921
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: hold your nose Vikings play here getting points because they

922
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 1: always keep games close. The Rams are coming off a

923
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 1: short week shorter we again than even the Viking somehow

924
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: again for the second straight time. Rams sort of in

925
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 1: a cell high sort of momentier, and it would be

926
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,439
Speaker 1: one like I'd hate to make, but I think over

927
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 1: the long terms it's probably you know plus ev, but

928
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 1: I couldn't. I wouldn't actually make that bet right it

929
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 1: strikes He's like, this seems like maybe a spot because

930
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 1: everything looks like the Rams are a much better team.

931
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 1: It's the type of game that the Vikings just randomly

932
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 1: show up for and do, but it's just to stay

933
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 1: away from me, and Dalvin Cook gives me the excuse.

934
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: So I'm very excited to do that. The Chiefs who

935
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: have everyone on the COVID list already and the only

936
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 1: one we know who's out is Harrison Butker, so it'll

937
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 1: be Elliott Fry kicking. So take that into account. They

938
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: are still links seven and a half right now, pretty

939
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 1: much across the board to the Steelers in Kansas City.

940
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 1: I think I'm expecting them to get back Tyreek Hill

941
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 1: and Travis Kelsey, by the way, like they went on

942
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 1: the COVID list early the new protocols maybe, but who

943
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: really knows. What do you do with this one?

944
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 2: Pat, I almost feel like the line is saying they

945
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:03,720
Speaker 2: expect Tyreek Hill and Travis Chelsea to come back early,

946
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 2: and if they do. I like the Chiefs at this point,

947
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 2: like I have kind of felt all year that the

948
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 2: Steelers are a bad team, portraying a five hundred team,

949
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 2: a mediocre team, and the Chiefs have been playing their

950
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 2: best football of the season. Their defense has gone from

951
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 2: just horrendous in that first month to actually really good,

952
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 2: and I think a lot of the metrics show that

953
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are now. I think they're the odds on

954
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 2: favorite now to win the Super Bowl in a lot

955
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: of spots, and I can understand why with that defense

956
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 2: playing well, and we knew Mahomes was eventually going to

957
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: get his act together. I don't know if we can

958
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 2: say that he's all the way there, but we've seen

959
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:54,359
Speaker 2: a couple of his ceiling games in the last three

960
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 2: weeks or so. I think Kansas City is going to

961
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: cover this if they get their past catchers back, Like

962
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 2: if Hill and Kelsey play, Assuming no other major COVID

963
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,760
Speaker 2: scratches in this game, nothing that really moves the line

964
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 2: off of seven and a half and a half, I

965
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 2: would lay those points to Pittsburgh.

966
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:14,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's probably right, assuming that they come back.

967
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: But man, this is so crazy. I'm just saying, like,

968
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 1: you know, betting right now and everything like that is

969
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 1: just nuts.

970
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 2: Can I can I give you the like it's weird

971
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 2: that we get it as a slow drip, but like

972
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 2: you know that we're going to lose basically two percent

973
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 2: of the player population this week. It is like the

974
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: Leftovers on HBO, the HBO series where two percent of

975
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 2: the Earth's population just disappeared. And that's what's happening in

976
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 2: the NFL every week, except rather than all disappearing at once,

977
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,439
Speaker 2: it's a slow drip, right, a coffee maker, And it's

978
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 2: just weird. And I can't even imagine what it would

979
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 2: be like to work in a book making operation, right,

980
00:49:56,080 --> 00:50:00,439
Speaker 2: and like having to tweak these lines like every hour

981
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 2: on the hour as things change, like just crazy.

982
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: I mean minute by minute, right, because God forbid, somebody

983
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 1: sees something. But again, they always have advanced info at least,

984
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 1: but you've got to be on the ball with them.

985
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 1: Cowboys are home against Washington Lank ten and a half

986
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: on Sunday Night.

987
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:22,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, weird that we've seen Dak not play very well lately,

988
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: and it's kind of been a sustained thing over like

989
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 2: a five game period. I think there was a stat

990
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 2: where Dak has averaged There have been seventeen games in

991
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 2: Dak's career where he has averaged less than six point

992
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:38,879
Speaker 2: yards six point zero yards per pass attempt, and five

993
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 2: of them have been since the start of November. Like,

994
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 2: he is playing terribly, but he played poorly when they

995
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 2: played Washington in Week fourteen. He was twenty two of

996
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 2: thirty nine for two hundred and eleven yards, one touchdown,

997
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 2: two interceptions, averaged five point four yards per pass attempt,

998
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 2: and they won by seventeen points on the road. So

999
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 2: I'm definitely not playing Washington in this one. But I

1000
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 2: just don't know if I can back the Cowboys with

1001
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:09,360
Speaker 2: their passing game not quite functional. The Dallas d is

1002
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:13,359
Speaker 2: playing great though. If I'm betting this, I'm definitely betting Dallas.

1003
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 1: I'm staying far away from it, man, like they just

1004
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 1: I have trouble like figuring out the Dallas offense because

1005
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: that really is not playing well at all. But I

1006
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 1: just can't back Washington and now Tara Heineke did come

1007
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,879
Speaker 1: off the covid lest day, but still I'm just saying

1008
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 1: a way, especially with Antonio Gibson banged up, I don't know.

1009
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 1: Last game Monday night, the Dolphins visiting New Orleans, we

1010
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:38,360
Speaker 1: just got it now. The line went from Saints minus

1011
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 1: three to It looks like for the most part the

1012
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 1: Dolphins are laying either one or one and a half here,

1013
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 1: and it does sound like Book is going to be

1014
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 1: the starter.

1015
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 2: What's the total?

1016
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 1: Now, let me check that out for you, all right,

1017
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 1: take a guess, bat. That's what Joe and I like

1018
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 1: to do on the Look Aheads. We take the guests

1019
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 1: on the total. I'm gonna see I can tell you

1020
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 1: what it was if you want. Before I tell you

1021
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 1: what it was, was it thirty nine before it was

1022
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 1: thirty nine?

1023
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 2: Yes, I'll say thirty five and a half.

1024
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 1: It's only thirty seven right now, only thirty seven. But

1025
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 1: my guess is they gotta they gotta slowly readjust it right,

1026
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: They've got to slowly figure it out. Thirty seven is

1027
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 1: the latest total.

1028
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 2: This is a week where generally I don't want to

1029
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,479
Speaker 2: lock anything in Dan, but I might have to jug

1030
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 2: down that under if I can lock it in at

1031
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 2: thirty seven. And like I, when I saw that initial total,

1032
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 2: I wondered if that was just the recency bias of

1033
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: having seen the Saints pass rush just completely smother Brady

1034
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 2: last week, a game where Brady was clearly, you know,

1035
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:47,359
Speaker 2: also frazzled by losing like his top receivers. But man,

1036
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 2: I don't know that's uh, I'm I'm probably just laying

1037
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 2: off this one. Like I've never really been much of

1038
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 2: a believer in the Dolphins, I've one of the teams

1039
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 2: I've had a hard time figuring out the entire season. Sure,

1040
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 2: And yeah, and the Saints are just such a moving

1041
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 2: target now with their quarterback woes.

1042
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 1: Just stay away, I go. Or if you're gonna bet it,

1043
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 1: wait until Monday night, you know how your week went,

1044
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 1: see what the COVID situation is, and then do it. Man, goodness, gracious, don't. Yeah,

1045
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 1: there are a few bets who might want to lock

1046
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 1: in early. This might be one of them, though, Pat

1047
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,399
Speaker 1: with the with the under, I'm with you on that one,

1048
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:30,360
Speaker 1: all right, Pat, let's go over your bets one more time.

1049
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 1: If you remember them, tell me what they were so

1050
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:36,240
Speaker 1: you could start it. Then I'll give mine, sure.

1051
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 2: So I like the Chargers ling ten on the road

1052
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:43,720
Speaker 2: against the Texans. I like Seattle, which is of this morning,

1053
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 2: was minus six and a half against the hapless Chicago

1054
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 2: Bears in Seattle. And I like the under in that

1055
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: Buffalo Patriots game. That is going to be such a

1056
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 2: raucous event at your holiday gathering then, and that was

1057
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:59,879
Speaker 2: a forty three and a half last I saw.

1058
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 1: Well, I look forward to playing this podcast for my

1059
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 1: father and brother in law. I will take with my lead.

1060
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 1: There you go, Billy and Kevin. Bill's getting two and

1061
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: a half from the Patriots, the Ravens getting three from

1062
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I'm not kidding. The consensus line since

1063
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: we started this has now flipped to the Raiders getting one.

1064
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 1: But I'll take the Raiders giving one to the Broncos.

1065
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 1: So that's gonna do it. I hope everyone has a

1066
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: wonderful Christmas. To everybody who celebrates, enjoy the football regardless,

1067
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 1: Enjoy your Sunday. Unless you have an under on the

1068
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:36,840
Speaker 1: Saints Miami game, probably wait as long as possible to

1069
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 1: place in your bets. And in the meantime, again, everybody,

1070
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: have a wonderful weekend. We'll be back doing this next

1071
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: week again. We'll probably take a look aheadline, hopefully without

1072
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Speaker 1: all the COVID news and all the all the holiday stuff,

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Speaker 1: but we'll talk to you then