WEBVTT - Tariffs Take Effect, Trump Targets Chips, and A Welsh Island on Sale

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg dayba Qut podcast. Good morning, It's Thursday,

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<v Speaker 2>the seventh of August. I'm Caroline Hepcat in London.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. US President Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's new tariffs come into effect, pushing US import duties

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<v Speaker 1>to their highest since World War II.

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<v Speaker 2>The White House warns of a one hundred percent tariff

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<v Speaker 2>on semiconducted chips, with carve outs for companies who manufacture

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<v Speaker 2>in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Plus Dreaming of your Own off the Grid Island, a

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<v Speaker 1>tech entrepreneur's converted for it off the Welsh Coast goes

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<v Speaker 1>on the market for three million pounds.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

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<v Speaker 1>The next phase of US President's global trade tariffs have

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<v Speaker 1>come into effect, pushing American taxes on imports to their

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<v Speaker 1>highest level since World War II. The European Union, Japan,

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<v Speaker 1>and South Korea negotiated a rate of fifteen percent on

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<v Speaker 1>their exports to the United States. Other countries simply assigned

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<v Speaker 1>rates which range from the UK's ten percent to much higher.

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<v Speaker 1>More levies are yet to come, with President Trump saying

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<v Speaker 1>he would double tariffs on Indian goods to fifty percent

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<v Speaker 1>as a penalty for buying Russian oil. Boombergs Jail Lisa

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<v Speaker 1>says these so called secondary tariffs are less about trade

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<v Speaker 1>and more about geopolitics.

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<v Speaker 4>It does seem like India has become kind of collateral

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<v Speaker 4>damage in this ongoing pressure campaign that Trump's trying to

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<v Speaker 4>launch against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Part of that big,

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<v Speaker 4>you know idea of applying these secondary sinctions or tariffs

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<v Speaker 4>on you know, nations that purchase Russian oil to try

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<v Speaker 4>to get Putin to end the Russia's warn.

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine Jesus out of the president. Trump said he might

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<v Speaker 1>also punish China with additional tariffs over its purchases of

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<v Speaker 1>Russian oil. Trade negotiations with China are still ongoing, along

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<v Speaker 1>with the US's other two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, the US president declared plans for a new one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred percent tariff on semikin doctor imports. Standing next to

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<v Speaker 2>Apple CEO Tim Cook in the Oval Office, Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>says that he is bringing manufacturing back to the US.

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<v Speaker 5>We'll be putting a terraform of approximately one hundred percent

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<v Speaker 5>on chips and semiconductors. But if you're building in the

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<v Speaker 5>United States of America, there's no charge, even though you're

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<v Speaker 5>building and you're not producing yet in terms of the

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<v Speaker 5>big numbers of jobs and all of the things that

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<v Speaker 5>you're building. If you're building, there will be no charge.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's surprise declaration further upends the global electronics supply chain.

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<v Speaker 2>Tech companies including Apple, TSMC, and Nvidia have pledged to

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<v Speaker 2>spend more than a trillion dollars collectively in the US

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<v Speaker 2>since Trump returned to power, but the levees may still

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<v Speaker 2>have major implications for the price of consumer electronics in

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<v Speaker 2>the US.

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<v Speaker 1>I Meanwhile, America's allies are still grappling with the shock

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<v Speaker 1>caused by the levees. Switzerland's President Karen Keller Sotter left

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<v Speaker 1>Washington after a two day emergency trip, having failed to

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<v Speaker 1>secure better terms. The European leader did not meet President Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>instead only talking to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Swiss

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<v Speaker 1>goods face the highest American tariff of any developed nation

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<v Speaker 1>at thirty nine percent. Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the

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<v Speaker 1>rate comes into effect, including on pharmaceuticals, at risks, cutting

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<v Speaker 1>up to one percent of Swiss economic output in the

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<v Speaker 1>medium term. The Swiss government is holding an emergency meeting

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<v Speaker 1>later today. Meanwhile, despite agreeing a trade deal with President Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>Japan is also trying to get clarity on car tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>Tokyo says Japanese cars were exempted from the levy, but

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<v Speaker 1>that detail was not on the executive order.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, three FED officials have voiced fresh concerns over the

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<v Speaker 2>US labor market, pointing to a rate cut in September.

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<v Speaker 2>According to the San Francisco FED president Mary Daily, the

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<v Speaker 2>data shows policymakers will need to alter borrowing costs soon.

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<v Speaker 6>Labor market has softened, and you can see this everywhere

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<v Speaker 6>in the US economy and here as well. And I

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<v Speaker 6>would see additional slowing in the labor market as an

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<v Speaker 6>unwelcome sign. So all this means, as you put it together,

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<v Speaker 6>that I think will likely need to adjust the policy

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<v Speaker 6>rate sometime in the coming.

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<v Speaker 2>Months, the Fed's Mary Daily speaking there speaking to CNBC. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 2>the Minneapolis FED president Near Kashkari also express worry over

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<v Speaker 2>the slowdown showing up in multiple data points, adding that

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<v Speaker 2>he expects two FED rate cuts before the end of

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<v Speaker 2>the year. The news also comes off to fellow Governor

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<v Speaker 2>Lisa Cook said that downward revisions to the jobs data

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<v Speaker 2>for the last three months were typical of turning points

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<v Speaker 2>in the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>In her words, markets are expecting an interest rate cut

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<v Speaker 1>from the Bank of England later today. The news comes

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<v Speaker 1>as members of the Monetary Policy Committee contend with a

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<v Speaker 1>slowing economy and a jobs market rattled by higher taxes.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloombergoks tea Adebayo has more.

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<v Speaker 7>Markets and economists are expecting the UK Central Bank to

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<v Speaker 7>cut interest rates to four percent this afternoon, a two

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<v Speaker 7>year low. The twenty five bases point drop would be

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<v Speaker 7>in line with the boees current once a quarter pace

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<v Speaker 7>of easing, but policymakers have remained cautious amid a fresh

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<v Speaker 7>inflation spike. Concerns over the economy are also rising after

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<v Speaker 7>it faced back to back contractions and a hiring slowdown

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<v Speaker 7>over spring. The decision will likely expose divisions amongst the

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<v Speaker 7>nine member committee panel, with experts predicting a three way

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<v Speaker 7>split in London. Twa Adebayo, Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>Radio president Donald Chom says there is a very good

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<v Speaker 2>chance that he will meet Russia's Vlasimir Putin and Ukraine's

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<v Speaker 2>Vladimir Zelinski soon in another bid to broke a piece

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<v Speaker 2>between the two countries. Chomps spoke to reporters in the

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<v Speaker 2>Oval Office hours after talks between Putin and US Special

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<v Speaker 2>Envoice Steve Whitkoff in Moscow.

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<v Speaker 5>Very good talks with President Putin today, and there's a

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<v Speaker 5>very good chance that we could be ending the ending

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<v Speaker 5>the round, ending the end of that road. Road was

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<v Speaker 5>long and continues to be long, but there's a good

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<v Speaker 5>chance that there will be a meaning very soon.

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<v Speaker 2>Excuse me, do you think you are some kind.

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<v Speaker 5>Of pot Well, look, I don't want to say.

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<v Speaker 2>Been disappointed before President Trump speaking thereafter, he informed allies

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<v Speaker 2>in a phone call on Wednesday that he is positive

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<v Speaker 2>about the possibility of a ce SPA in Ukraine in.

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<v Speaker 3>Terms of sources.

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<v Speaker 2>Speaking to Bloomberg, he also suggested that Putin would be

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<v Speaker 2>open to peace talks in exchange for discussing land swaps.

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<v Speaker 1>With Those are your top stories on the markets this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>The Mscirish Pacific Index nine tenths higher this morning after

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<v Speaker 1>those latest tariff announcement, particularly to do with chick makers,

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<v Speaker 1>have been giving the markets some optimism. TSMC shares in

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan are up by four point nine nine percent. Looking

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<v Speaker 1>ahead to the European trading session, eurostocks fifty futures are

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<v Speaker 1>up by a quarter of one percent. Wall Street futures

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<v Speaker 1>are two tents higher for SMP emonies as well. The

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<v Speaker 1>ten your Treasury eel this morning just up a basis

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<v Speaker 1>point at four point twenty four percent. The Blueberg Dollar

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<v Speaker 1>Spot index is a tenth of one percent weaker.

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<v Speaker 2>Now in a moment, we'll bring you more on the

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<v Speaker 2>latest US tariffs coming into effect. Plus we'll dig into

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<v Speaker 2>the market reaction, particularly to the announcement around chips. But first,

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<v Speaker 2>something we've been laughing about and thinking about all morning,

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<v Speaker 2>really a bit of an escape from all the tariff news.

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<v Speaker 2>Sarah Rappaport School always gets the best assignments, doesn't she.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, she's been writing about a private island for sale

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<v Speaker 1>off the Welsh coast. It's home to a Victorian era

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<v Speaker 1>ford that's been renovated into a five bedroom home. It's

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<v Speaker 1>got things like a roof top bar. It's also fully

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<v Speaker 1>self sufficient with generators, solar panels and heat pumps. Now

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<v Speaker 1>the island is currently owned by the tech On Brenner

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<v Speaker 1>and Mike Connor, who bought it in twenty seventeen brought

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<v Speaker 1>it back from dereliction. He's had some great parties on

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<v Speaker 1>the island over the years. He describes it as a

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<v Speaker 1>really expensive train set.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, I think that's got a helipad on it as well.

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<v Speaker 3>You'll have to add that in there.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's been quite a lot of a work

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<v Speaker 1>that's essentially had to be done to try and get

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<v Speaker 1>this island back to I suppose the state that it's

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<v Speaker 1>in now, but it is on sale. Four an island,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's at the current price is three million pounds.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought that was quite a snip. Actually, I must

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<v Speaker 2>say that I've been doing research asland.

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<v Speaker 7>Well.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I just had seen the island when it was

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<v Speaker 2>for sale.

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<v Speaker 3>I think everybody in the country.

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<v Speaker 2>Saw it because it was the most popular or the

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<v Speaker 2>most viewed for sale property in the UK, and the

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<v Speaker 2>year that it was up for sale I think it

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<v Speaker 2>was twenty seventeen or twenty eighty, So I actually thought

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<v Speaker 2>three million pounds after all the investment that must have

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<v Speaker 2>been needed just.

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<v Speaker 1>Made me think of the famous five To be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of there being an island, you know, with

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<v Speaker 1>a four workshist.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so beautiful a view of that coast must be amazing.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we'll put a link to there rapp And for

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<v Speaker 1>its story in our podcast show notes. But let's bring

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<v Speaker 1>you more down our top stories. The late US round

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<v Speaker 1>of Donald Trump's trade tariffs have come into effect, raising

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<v Speaker 1>the rates faced by dozens of countries around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Switzerland's president left Washington without any change to the thirty

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<v Speaker 1>nine percent rate that their imports will now face in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. Donald Trump's already threatening further moves on chips

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<v Speaker 1>and higher tariffs on India as well. Let's speak to

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Ramsey Arabaki for more on all of this. Ramsey,

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<v Speaker 1>good to talk to you. First of all, just to

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<v Speaker 1>put us where we are with these new tariff rates

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<v Speaker 1>coming into force today. How big a moment is this

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<v Speaker 1>in Donald Trump's trade offensive.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, he's been in one sense, it's at

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<v Speaker 8>least some certainty for the world. He's been talking about

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<v Speaker 8>these things since he got into office. He had this

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<v Speaker 8>big announcement in April, delayed till July, delayed again. Finally

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<v Speaker 8>at midnight in the US New York they have gone

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<v Speaker 8>into effect, So we kind of know where everything lies.

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<v Speaker 8>But as you guys have been talking about he's still

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<v Speaker 8>full of surprises. There's the issue with India and oil.

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<v Speaker 8>There's this random announcement in the White House about one

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<v Speaker 8>hundred percent or sorry, one hundred percent tariffs on chips

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<v Speaker 8>unless they're produced in the United States or at least

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<v Speaker 8>a company promises to produce the United States. There's the

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<v Speaker 8>shaker on Switzerland. They still haven't settled China and Mexico

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<v Speaker 8>and Canada, which are the biggest trade partners. So in

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<v Speaker 8>one sense things feel quietly settled. But there's still some

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<v Speaker 8>very big questions out there. And as I said, he's

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<v Speaker 8>full of surprises. So everyone's still on their toes.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay, so let's focus in on one of those.

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<v Speaker 2>Then one hundred percent havef on chips with some very

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<v Speaker 2>key exemptions. Is it good or badness for chip makers?

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<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, you even look at the story that

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<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg and others writer. Right now, we even have people trying,

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<v Speaker 8>they say, they're scrambling to make sense of what this

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<v Speaker 8>threat is. It seems good news for a lot of

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<v Speaker 8>the names you would know off the top of your head,

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<v Speaker 8>a company like Apple, Taiwan's TSMC, Samsung in Korea, all

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<v Speaker 8>of those governments. Those companies said, look, we were making

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<v Speaker 8>investments in the United States or we're going to So

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<v Speaker 8>by the reading of what he said, it's like, well,

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<v Speaker 8>they should be exempted. So it's not entirely clear just

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<v Speaker 8>yet how big of a hit it could have to

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<v Speaker 8>some of the biggest suppliers. What he's demanded was sort

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<v Speaker 8>of already in train even before he came into office.

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<v Speaker 8>If you remember, under the Biden administration, there was a

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<v Speaker 8>chips AC that was encouraging chip makers to build in

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<v Speaker 8>the United States, and a lot of them had already

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<v Speaker 8>made commitments to that point. But again, it probably has

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<v Speaker 8>just as much to do with Trump's interest in being

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<v Speaker 8>splashy and having a big number out there and really

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<v Speaker 8>hammering home his point that he wants he wants companies

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<v Speaker 8>to build in America for American consumers and American jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>So this could potentially, as you say, have some good

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<v Speaker 1>news for those chip makers that are carved out from

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<v Speaker 1>the that Twerff threat. But the other threat that we

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<v Speaker 1>had from Donald Trump is to increase the tariff right

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<v Speaker 1>on India from twenty five to fifty percent later this month.

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<v Speaker 1>This is linked to its purchases of Russian oil. Is

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<v Speaker 1>there any hope for negotiation? Do we think we've another

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one days before that higher rate would come into force.

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.959
<v Speaker 8>Gosh, that's another wildcard that we're trying to get our

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.079
<v Speaker 8>head around, you know, if you just we go back

0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 8>a little bit after the invasion of Ukraine, that's when

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.920
<v Speaker 8>the US and the EU really tried to crack down

0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.960
<v Speaker 8>on Russian energy, and they had this policy of trying

0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.800
<v Speaker 8>to cap the price on Russian oil but still trying

0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:42.640
<v Speaker 8>to keep it onto the market, which means there's a

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:44.880
<v Speaker 8>lot of oil, so gasoline prices don't go up, but

0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.720
<v Speaker 8>Moscow and Vladimir Putin get less money. A big buyer

0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.160
<v Speaker 8>during all this was India. The US knew it. They

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.440
<v Speaker 8>sort of just let it slide. India saying we need

0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.240
<v Speaker 8>the cheap oil, we have a growing economy, the US thinking, well,

0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:58.480
<v Speaker 8>we need a counterweight to China, so we'll all get

0:12:58.520 --> 0:12:59.000
<v Speaker 8>along here.

0:12:59.559 --> 0:12:59.760
<v Speaker 5>Now.

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.040
<v Speaker 8>Trump thought he could end this war in Russia very quickly.

0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 8>It's going much more difficult than he thought. Vladimir Putin

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 8>is a lot more stubborn than he was expecting. So

0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:11.080
<v Speaker 8>he's been ramping up his pressure on Putin, and I

0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.800
<v Speaker 8>think that's where he probably saw an opportunity to make

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:15.640
<v Speaker 8>it seem like he was serious, and he's kind of

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 8>using India as as the outlet for that. What sort

0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.559
<v Speaker 8>of upside he's going to get is unclear. Vladimir Putin

0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 8>and Russia have been very, very resistant and sort of

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.520
<v Speaker 8>they've adapted well to the economic isolation the West has

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:35.080
<v Speaker 8>tried to put them in. And this is obviously very

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 8>much angered India, so much so that even you know,

0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.199
<v Speaker 8>the Modi's opponents are piling in and backing him in

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 8>a sense saying this is just straight up bullying. But

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 8>you're right, there's time to sort this out. And as

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:50.320
<v Speaker 8>we've seen, Trump can change his mind very quickly, very dramatically.

0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:52.880
<v Speaker 8>And it could be as simple as one phone call.

0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 8>We saw the Swiss apparently didn't get it, got a

0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 8>really terrible deal because of a bad phone call. It

0:13:58.080 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 8>could be that a nice phone call with Modi sorts

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:01.880
<v Speaker 8>it out, or a nice phone call with Putin. But

0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:05.040
<v Speaker 8>it puts the oil market a tricky situation. It puts

0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 8>Indian a very tricky situation. And as I'm sure as

0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:09.439
<v Speaker 8>you might have heard as well in the questioning yesterday

0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 8>in the White House, Trump even said he might do

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.040
<v Speaker 8>the same thing for China, which again it just is

0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.320
<v Speaker 8>throwing another huge wrench in the works in that trade relationship.

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 8>And as I'm sure you know, China is another massive

0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.520
<v Speaker 8>buyer of oil globally and from Russia.

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, person Trump's saying that that may happen, but of

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:31.080
<v Speaker 2>course it also sounded fairly tensitive about China. Let's see

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:33.400
<v Speaker 2>what happens on that point. Ramsey, thank you so much

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 2>for being with us, that is Blomberg's Ramsey Alviccarby that

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 2>are joining us taking us through the latest round of

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 2>trade tariffs.

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Well, let's think about how markets are reacting to that

0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>trade and use now the exemptions that Donald Trump announce

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.160
<v Speaker 1>him his plans. Chip tarris has boosted shares in Asia

0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:50.400
<v Speaker 1>and our market support of Valerie Title is with us.

0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 3>Now for more.

0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:53.000
<v Speaker 1>It just talk us through what we are seeing in

0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>terms of reaction to this latest set of announcements.

0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 9>Well, huge relief when it comes to the semiconductor Yes,

0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 9>it was a big, flashy number one hundred percent, but

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:04.120
<v Speaker 9>it exempts anybody who is pledging investment in the US,

0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 9>is pledging to move their supply chain more to the US.

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:09.840
<v Speaker 9>So we're seeing the likes of TSMC. Those shares are

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 9>up five percent in Taiwan trade. Even the likes of

0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 9>Navidia traded higher in postmarket, and the likes of Apple

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 9>as well. Tim Cook obviously being in the Oval Office

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 9>with Trump when he made this announcement, Apple is going

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:25.800
<v Speaker 9>to get that carve out that exemption too. So Apple

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:29.400
<v Speaker 9>shares traded nearly three percent higher in post market trades.

0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 9>This is just another tariff now, Stephen, that we don't

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 9>have to worry about. The tariff thread on semiconductors seems

0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:40.400
<v Speaker 9>in the rear view mirror the exemptions. The list of

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 9>both foundries and chip designers who have pledged investment in

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:49.360
<v Speaker 9>the US is really quite extensive. TSMC, applied materials, Apple

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:51.600
<v Speaker 9>has talked about moving some of their supply chains to

0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.720
<v Speaker 9>the US. Navidia as well. There's this big Phoenix plant

0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:59.880
<v Speaker 9>that TSMC is building in Arizona, and many chip designers

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.600
<v Speaker 9>voice support of using that production line as well. So

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.520
<v Speaker 9>the carve ounts are quite enormous on this one, and

0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 9>I think that surprised the market in quite a positive way.

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.880
<v Speaker 9>With TSMC up some five percent and trade in Taiwan in.

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:17.400
<v Speaker 2>Terms of the USS of taffs O buying Russian oil.

0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:21.000
<v Speaker 3>Targeting India and China. How's that affecting oil prices?

0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:22.520
<v Speaker 9>This is a really hard one to put your finger

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:25.800
<v Speaker 9>on because secondary sanctions are very much known to be

0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 9>very hard to enforce, and honestly, the oil price yesterday

0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:32.880
<v Speaker 9>was way more affected by reports that Trump wants to

0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.720
<v Speaker 9>meet with Putin and Zelenski. So we actually saw oil

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.880
<v Speaker 9>fall at the end of the session yesterday. So it

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:40.720
<v Speaker 9>does seem like to be there's two things pulling the

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 9>oil market. It has rallied this week on worries of

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.800
<v Speaker 9>these secondary sanctions, but then yesterday was really much on

0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 9>a back foot on hopes of a ceasefire when it

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 9>comes to the Russia Ukraine. Or we did have WTI

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.880
<v Speaker 9>falling over percent by the end of the close in

0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 9>yesterday session.

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.000
<v Speaker 1>And just in terms of markets are thinking about the

0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.280
<v Speaker 1>tireffs more broadly in the effect on the US economy.

0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.720
<v Speaker 1>Interesting of comments from Federal Reserve policymakers Mary Daily and

0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:08.960
<v Speaker 1>Yakashkari among them about interest.

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.800
<v Speaker 9>Rights exactly a dove its shift from some of these

0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.680
<v Speaker 9>FED members voicing some fresh concerns on the labor market.

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 9>Mary Daily Basically, this is now her second time around

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:21.840
<v Speaker 9>that she's mentioned that the labor market is cooling, because

0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 9>Kari mentioned that as well, saying cutting sooner rather than

0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 9>later might be better than waiting because of this cooling

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.640
<v Speaker 9>in the labor market. We also heard from Lisa Cook,

0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.399
<v Speaker 9>who is a Fed governor a current voter as well,

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:37.320
<v Speaker 9>saying that it is concerning the latest jobs market. Jobs

0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.800
<v Speaker 9>data is concerning and those big revisions can be somewhat

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.879
<v Speaker 9>typical of turning points in the US economy. So this

0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.680
<v Speaker 9>dubvish language from the Federal Reserve members, it has kept

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 9>the dollar soft. It's been weakening for five straight days.

0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:52.760
<v Speaker 9>It's now down a percent and a half since Friday's

0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.240
<v Speaker 9>payroll report. But when it comes to what's priced in

0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.320
<v Speaker 9>the front end, I think it's fairly justified. We're pricing

0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.160
<v Speaker 9>still around a ninety percent ninety ninety to ninety five

0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 9>percent chance of a September cut, So at least no

0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:06.440
<v Speaker 9>one for now is talking about a big jumbo cut

0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:08.399
<v Speaker 9>when it comes to September. That would be something that

0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:10.800
<v Speaker 9>would really shift the market. But Stephen, remember we still

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.040
<v Speaker 9>have another CPI print and another payroll print before we

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 9>get to that September meeting, so that might keep FED

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:20.760
<v Speaker 9>members from sounding any alarm on a jumbo cut until

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:21.440
<v Speaker 9>we get more data.

0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.840
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.960
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