1
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,680
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg dayba Qut podcast. Good morning, It's Thursday,

3
00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 2: the seventh of August. I'm Caroline Hepcat in London.

4
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,160
Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. US President Donald

5
00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:21,960
Speaker 1: Trump's new tariffs come into effect, pushing US import duties

6
00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,799
Speaker 1: to their highest since World War II.

7
00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,920
Speaker 2: The White House warns of a one hundred percent tariff

8
00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 2: on semiconducted chips, with carve outs for companies who manufacture

9
00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:32,440
Speaker 2: in the US.

10
00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,680
Speaker 1: Plus Dreaming of your Own off the Grid Island, a

11
00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,320
Speaker 1: tech entrepreneur's converted for it off the Welsh Coast goes

12
00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:41,279
Speaker 1: on the market for three million pounds.

13
00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,520
Speaker 3: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

14
00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,040
Speaker 1: The next phase of US President's global trade tariffs have

15
00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 1: come into effect, pushing American taxes on imports to their

16
00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:53,960
Speaker 1: highest level since World War II. The European Union, Japan,

17
00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,480
Speaker 1: and South Korea negotiated a rate of fifteen percent on

18
00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,959
Speaker 1: their exports to the United States. Other countries simply assigned

19
00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,680
Speaker 1: rates which range from the UK's ten percent to much higher.

20
00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,759
Speaker 1: More levies are yet to come, with President Trump saying

21
00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,400
Speaker 1: he would double tariffs on Indian goods to fifty percent

22
00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,839
Speaker 1: as a penalty for buying Russian oil. Boombergs Jail Lisa

23
00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 1: says these so called secondary tariffs are less about trade

24
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,320
Speaker 1: and more about geopolitics.

25
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 4: It does seem like India has become kind of collateral

26
00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:26,080
Speaker 4: damage in this ongoing pressure campaign that Trump's trying to

27
00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,360
Speaker 4: launch against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Part of that big,

28
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,600
Speaker 4: you know idea of applying these secondary sinctions or tariffs

29
00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,280
Speaker 4: on you know, nations that purchase Russian oil to try

30
00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,000
Speaker 4: to get Putin to end the Russia's warn.

31
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,000
Speaker 1: Ukraine Jesus out of the president. Trump said he might

32
00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,360
Speaker 1: also punish China with additional tariffs over its purchases of

33
00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:50,120
Speaker 1: Russian oil. Trade negotiations with China are still ongoing, along

34
00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 1: with the US's other two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada.

35
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,880
Speaker 2: Now, the US president declared plans for a new one

36
00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:02,320
Speaker 2: hundred percent tariff on semikin doctor imports. Standing next to

37
00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 2: Apple CEO Tim Cook in the Oval Office, Donald Trump

38
00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,760
Speaker 2: says that he is bringing manufacturing back to the US.

39
00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,519
Speaker 5: We'll be putting a terraform of approximately one hundred percent

40
00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:17,560
Speaker 5: on chips and semiconductors. But if you're building in the

41
00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,440
Speaker 5: United States of America, there's no charge, even though you're

42
00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:25,320
Speaker 5: building and you're not producing yet in terms of the

43
00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,760
Speaker 5: big numbers of jobs and all of the things that

44
00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:31,160
Speaker 5: you're building. If you're building, there will be no charge.

45
00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:32,359
Speaker 3: Now.

46
00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:37,240
Speaker 2: Trump's surprise declaration further upends the global electronics supply chain.

47
00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,160
Speaker 2: Tech companies including Apple, TSMC, and Nvidia have pledged to

48
00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,799
Speaker 2: spend more than a trillion dollars collectively in the US

49
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,160
Speaker 2: since Trump returned to power, but the levees may still

50
00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:52,160
Speaker 2: have major implications for the price of consumer electronics in

51
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 2: the US.

52
00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,000
Speaker 1: I Meanwhile, America's allies are still grappling with the shock

53
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,920
Speaker 1: caused by the levees. Switzerland's President Karen Keller Sotter left

54
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,680
Speaker 1: Washington after a two day emergency trip, having failed to

55
00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:08,480
Speaker 1: secure better terms. The European leader did not meet President Trump,

56
00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 1: instead only talking to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Swiss

57
00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 1: goods face the highest American tariff of any developed nation

58
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:19,200
Speaker 1: at thirty nine percent. Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the

59
00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:23,360
Speaker 1: rate comes into effect, including on pharmaceuticals, at risks, cutting

60
00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,360
Speaker 1: up to one percent of Swiss economic output in the

61
00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,160
Speaker 1: medium term. The Swiss government is holding an emergency meeting

62
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:34,720
Speaker 1: later today. Meanwhile, despite agreeing a trade deal with President Trump,

63
00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,000
Speaker 1: Japan is also trying to get clarity on car tariffs.

64
00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 1: Tokyo says Japanese cars were exempted from the levy, but

65
00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,560
Speaker 1: that detail was not on the executive order.

66
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,280
Speaker 2: Now, three FED officials have voiced fresh concerns over the

67
00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,560
Speaker 2: US labor market, pointing to a rate cut in September.

68
00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,680
Speaker 2: According to the San Francisco FED president Mary Daily, the

69
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:59,240
Speaker 2: data shows policymakers will need to alter borrowing costs soon.

70
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,400
Speaker 6: Labor market has softened, and you can see this everywhere

71
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,720
Speaker 6: in the US economy and here as well. And I

72
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,920
Speaker 6: would see additional slowing in the labor market as an

73
00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,360
Speaker 6: unwelcome sign. So all this means, as you put it together,

74
00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,160
Speaker 6: that I think will likely need to adjust the policy

75
00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,000
Speaker 6: rate sometime in the coming.

76
00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:23,880
Speaker 2: Months, the Fed's Mary Daily speaking there speaking to CNBC. Meanwhile,

77
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,960
Speaker 2: the Minneapolis FED president Near Kashkari also express worry over

78
00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:32,320
Speaker 2: the slowdown showing up in multiple data points, adding that

79
00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,240
Speaker 2: he expects two FED rate cuts before the end of

80
00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,240
Speaker 2: the year. The news also comes off to fellow Governor

81
00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,640
Speaker 2: Lisa Cook said that downward revisions to the jobs data

82
00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 2: for the last three months were typical of turning points

83
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:46,520
Speaker 2: in the economy.

84
00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,200
Speaker 1: In her words, markets are expecting an interest rate cut

85
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,680
Speaker 1: from the Bank of England later today. The news comes

86
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,280
Speaker 1: as members of the Monetary Policy Committee contend with a

87
00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,479
Speaker 1: slowing economy and a jobs market rattled by higher taxes.

88
00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,520
Speaker 1: Bloombergoks tea Adebayo has more.

89
00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,640
Speaker 7: Markets and economists are expecting the UK Central Bank to

90
00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,120
Speaker 7: cut interest rates to four percent this afternoon, a two

91
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,640
Speaker 7: year low. The twenty five bases point drop would be

92
00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,440
Speaker 7: in line with the boees current once a quarter pace

93
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,240
Speaker 7: of easing, but policymakers have remained cautious amid a fresh

94
00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:23,680
Speaker 7: inflation spike. Concerns over the economy are also rising after

95
00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,160
Speaker 7: it faced back to back contractions and a hiring slowdown

96
00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:31,719
Speaker 7: over spring. The decision will likely expose divisions amongst the

97
00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,599
Speaker 7: nine member committee panel, with experts predicting a three way

98
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:39,000
Speaker 7: split in London. Twa Adebayo, Bloomberg.

99
00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:43,120
Speaker 2: Radio president Donald Chom says there is a very good

100
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 2: chance that he will meet Russia's Vlasimir Putin and Ukraine's

101
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,200
Speaker 2: Vladimir Zelinski soon in another bid to broke a piece

102
00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,280
Speaker 2: between the two countries. Chomps spoke to reporters in the

103
00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,560
Speaker 2: Oval Office hours after talks between Putin and US Special

104
00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 2: Envoice Steve Whitkoff in Moscow.

105
00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:04,080
Speaker 5: Very good talks with President Putin today, and there's a

106
00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,880
Speaker 5: very good chance that we could be ending the ending

107
00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,919
Speaker 5: the round, ending the end of that road. Road was

108
00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,480
Speaker 5: long and continues to be long, but there's a good

109
00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,719
Speaker 5: chance that there will be a meaning very soon.

110
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 2: Excuse me, do you think you are some kind.

111
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:21,719
Speaker 5: Of pot Well, look, I don't want to say.

112
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:27,920
Speaker 2: Been disappointed before President Trump speaking thereafter, he informed allies

113
00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,760
Speaker 2: in a phone call on Wednesday that he is positive

114
00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,760
Speaker 2: about the possibility of a ce SPA in Ukraine in.

115
00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 3: Terms of sources.

116
00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,680
Speaker 2: Speaking to Bloomberg, he also suggested that Putin would be

117
00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,920
Speaker 2: open to peace talks in exchange for discussing land swaps.

118
00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,520
Speaker 1: With Those are your top stories on the markets this morning.

119
00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,200
Speaker 1: The Mscirish Pacific Index nine tenths higher this morning after

120
00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,560
Speaker 1: those latest tariff announcement, particularly to do with chick makers,

121
00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,480
Speaker 1: have been giving the markets some optimism. TSMC shares in

122
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,440
Speaker 1: Taiwan are up by four point nine nine percent. Looking

123
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,240
Speaker 1: ahead to the European trading session, eurostocks fifty futures are

124
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 1: up by a quarter of one percent. Wall Street futures

125
00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,719
Speaker 1: are two tents higher for SMP emonies as well. The

126
00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,400
Speaker 1: ten your Treasury eel this morning just up a basis

127
00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,640
Speaker 1: point at four point twenty four percent. The Blueberg Dollar

128
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,120
Speaker 1: Spot index is a tenth of one percent weaker.

129
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:19,240
Speaker 2: Now in a moment, we'll bring you more on the

130
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:23,000
Speaker 2: latest US tariffs coming into effect. Plus we'll dig into

131
00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:28,720
Speaker 2: the market reaction, particularly to the announcement around chips. But first,

132
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,960
Speaker 2: something we've been laughing about and thinking about all morning,

133
00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:36,040
Speaker 2: really a bit of an escape from all the tariff news.

134
00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,960
Speaker 2: Sarah Rappaport School always gets the best assignments, doesn't she.

135
00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,640
Speaker 1: Well, she's been writing about a private island for sale

136
00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,560
Speaker 1: off the Welsh coast. It's home to a Victorian era

137
00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,120
Speaker 1: ford that's been renovated into a five bedroom home. It's

138
00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,040
Speaker 1: got things like a roof top bar. It's also fully

139
00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:56,800
Speaker 1: self sufficient with generators, solar panels and heat pumps. Now

140
00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,360
Speaker 1: the island is currently owned by the tech On Brenner

141
00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,800
Speaker 1: and Mike Connor, who bought it in twenty seventeen brought

142
00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,600
Speaker 1: it back from dereliction. He's had some great parties on

143
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,320
Speaker 1: the island over the years. He describes it as a

144
00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,160
Speaker 1: really expensive train set.

145
00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,240
Speaker 2: Yes, I think that's got a helipad on it as well.

146
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:16,600
Speaker 3: You'll have to add that in there.

147
00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:18,720
Speaker 1: I think there's been quite a lot of a work

148
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,800
Speaker 1: that's essentially had to be done to try and get

149
00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,160
Speaker 1: this island back to I suppose the state that it's

150
00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 1: in now, but it is on sale. Four an island,

151
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,480
Speaker 1: and it's at the current price is three million pounds.

152
00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:34,640
Speaker 2: I thought that was quite a snip. Actually, I must

153
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,800
Speaker 2: say that I've been doing research asland.

154
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:38,080
Speaker 7: Well.

155
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:42,000
Speaker 2: No, I just had seen the island when it was

156
00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:42,440
Speaker 2: for sale.

157
00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,319
Speaker 3: I think everybody in the country.

158
00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,880
Speaker 2: Saw it because it was the most popular or the

159
00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,920
Speaker 2: most viewed for sale property in the UK, and the

160
00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:51,719
Speaker 2: year that it was up for sale I think it

161
00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,199
Speaker 2: was twenty seventeen or twenty eighty, So I actually thought

162
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,599
Speaker 2: three million pounds after all the investment that must have

163
00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,559
Speaker 2: been needed just.

164
00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:00,439
Speaker 1: Made me think of the famous five To be honest,

165
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 1: the idea of there being an island, you know, with

166
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:04,079
Speaker 1: a four workshist.

167
00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,000
Speaker 2: It's so beautiful a view of that coast must be amazing.

168
00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:08,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll put a link to there rapp And for

169
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,079
Speaker 1: its story in our podcast show notes. But let's bring

170
00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:12,760
Speaker 1: you more down our top stories. The late US round

171
00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,320
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump's trade tariffs have come into effect, raising

172
00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,880
Speaker 1: the rates faced by dozens of countries around the world.

173
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,320
Speaker 1: Switzerland's president left Washington without any change to the thirty

174
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,839
Speaker 1: nine percent rate that their imports will now face in

175
00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,040
Speaker 1: the US. Donald Trump's already threatening further moves on chips

176
00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 1: and higher tariffs on India as well. Let's speak to

177
00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:34,240
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Ramsey Arabaki for more on all of this. Ramsey,

178
00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,959
Speaker 1: good to talk to you. First of all, just to

179
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,600
Speaker 1: put us where we are with these new tariff rates

180
00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,800
Speaker 1: coming into force today. How big a moment is this

181
00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 1: in Donald Trump's trade offensive.

182
00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,679
Speaker 8: Well, you know, he's been in one sense, it's at

183
00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,199
Speaker 8: least some certainty for the world. He's been talking about

184
00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,840
Speaker 8: these things since he got into office. He had this

185
00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 8: big announcement in April, delayed till July, delayed again. Finally

186
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:04,040
Speaker 8: at midnight in the US New York they have gone

187
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,080
Speaker 8: into effect, So we kind of know where everything lies.

188
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,880
Speaker 8: But as you guys have been talking about he's still

189
00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,280
Speaker 8: full of surprises. There's the issue with India and oil.

190
00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 8: There's this random announcement in the White House about one

191
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 8: hundred percent or sorry, one hundred percent tariffs on chips

192
00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:21,400
Speaker 8: unless they're produced in the United States or at least

193
00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,400
Speaker 8: a company promises to produce the United States. There's the

194
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:30,000
Speaker 8: shaker on Switzerland. They still haven't settled China and Mexico

195
00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,079
Speaker 8: and Canada, which are the biggest trade partners. So in

196
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,960
Speaker 8: one sense things feel quietly settled. But there's still some

197
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,320
Speaker 8: very big questions out there. And as I said, he's

198
00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,800
Speaker 8: full of surprises. So everyone's still on their toes.

199
00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so let's focus in on one of those.

200
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,040
Speaker 2: Then one hundred percent havef on chips with some very

201
00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:54,360
Speaker 2: key exemptions. Is it good or badness for chip makers?

202
00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,839
Speaker 8: Well, you know, you even look at the story that

203
00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,960
Speaker 8: Bloomberg and others writer. Right now, we even have people trying,

204
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,080
Speaker 8: they say, they're scrambling to make sense of what this

205
00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,880
Speaker 8: threat is. It seems good news for a lot of

206
00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:07,480
Speaker 8: the names you would know off the top of your head,

207
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:12,920
Speaker 8: a company like Apple, Taiwan's TSMC, Samsung in Korea, all

208
00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,240
Speaker 8: of those governments. Those companies said, look, we were making

209
00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 8: investments in the United States or we're going to So

210
00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:22,840
Speaker 8: by the reading of what he said, it's like, well,

211
00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 8: they should be exempted. So it's not entirely clear just

212
00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,280
Speaker 8: yet how big of a hit it could have to

213
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,120
Speaker 8: some of the biggest suppliers. What he's demanded was sort

214
00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:33,720
Speaker 8: of already in train even before he came into office.

215
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,080
Speaker 8: If you remember, under the Biden administration, there was a

216
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,240
Speaker 8: chips AC that was encouraging chip makers to build in

217
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 8: the United States, and a lot of them had already

218
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,679
Speaker 8: made commitments to that point. But again, it probably has

219
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,760
Speaker 8: just as much to do with Trump's interest in being

220
00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,200
Speaker 8: splashy and having a big number out there and really

221
00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,920
Speaker 8: hammering home his point that he wants he wants companies

222
00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,680
Speaker 8: to build in America for American consumers and American jobs.

223
00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 1: So this could potentially, as you say, have some good

224
00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,000
Speaker 1: news for those chip makers that are carved out from

225
00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,320
Speaker 1: the that Twerff threat. But the other threat that we

226
00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,120
Speaker 1: had from Donald Trump is to increase the tariff right

227
00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:13,400
Speaker 1: on India from twenty five to fifty percent later this month.

228
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,080
Speaker 1: This is linked to its purchases of Russian oil. Is

229
00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,360
Speaker 1: there any hope for negotiation? Do we think we've another

230
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,080
Speaker 1: twenty one days before that higher rate would come into force.

231
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,959
Speaker 8: Gosh, that's another wildcard that we're trying to get our

232
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,079
Speaker 8: head around, you know, if you just we go back

233
00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 8: a little bit after the invasion of Ukraine, that's when

234
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,920
Speaker 8: the US and the EU really tried to crack down

235
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,960
Speaker 8: on Russian energy, and they had this policy of trying

236
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,800
Speaker 8: to cap the price on Russian oil but still trying

237
00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:42,640
Speaker 8: to keep it onto the market, which means there's a

238
00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:44,880
Speaker 8: lot of oil, so gasoline prices don't go up, but

239
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,720
Speaker 8: Moscow and Vladimir Putin get less money. A big buyer

240
00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,160
Speaker 8: during all this was India. The US knew it. They

241
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,440
Speaker 8: sort of just let it slide. India saying we need

242
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,240
Speaker 8: the cheap oil, we have a growing economy, the US thinking, well,

243
00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,480
Speaker 8: we need a counterweight to China, so we'll all get

244
00:12:58,520 --> 00:12:59,000
Speaker 8: along here.

245
00:12:59,559 --> 00:12:59,760
Speaker 5: Now.

246
00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:02,040
Speaker 8: Trump thought he could end this war in Russia very quickly.

247
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,680
Speaker 8: It's going much more difficult than he thought. Vladimir Putin

248
00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,120
Speaker 8: is a lot more stubborn than he was expecting. So

249
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,080
Speaker 8: he's been ramping up his pressure on Putin, and I

250
00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,800
Speaker 8: think that's where he probably saw an opportunity to make

251
00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,640
Speaker 8: it seem like he was serious, and he's kind of

252
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 8: using India as as the outlet for that. What sort

253
00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,559
Speaker 8: of upside he's going to get is unclear. Vladimir Putin

254
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,000
Speaker 8: and Russia have been very, very resistant and sort of

255
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,520
Speaker 8: they've adapted well to the economic isolation the West has

256
00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,080
Speaker 8: tried to put them in. And this is obviously very

257
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 8: much angered India, so much so that even you know,

258
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,199
Speaker 8: the Modi's opponents are piling in and backing him in

259
00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,400
Speaker 8: a sense saying this is just straight up bullying. But

260
00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,480
Speaker 8: you're right, there's time to sort this out. And as

261
00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:50,320
Speaker 8: we've seen, Trump can change his mind very quickly, very dramatically.

262
00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:52,880
Speaker 8: And it could be as simple as one phone call.

263
00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 8: We saw the Swiss apparently didn't get it, got a

264
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,040
Speaker 8: really terrible deal because of a bad phone call. It

265
00:13:58,080 --> 00:13:59,760
Speaker 8: could be that a nice phone call with Modi sorts

266
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:01,880
Speaker 8: it out, or a nice phone call with Putin. But

267
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,040
Speaker 8: it puts the oil market a tricky situation. It puts

268
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,360
Speaker 8: Indian a very tricky situation. And as I'm sure as

269
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,439
Speaker 8: you might have heard as well in the questioning yesterday

270
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,080
Speaker 8: in the White House, Trump even said he might do

271
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,040
Speaker 8: the same thing for China, which again it just is

272
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,320
Speaker 8: throwing another huge wrench in the works in that trade relationship.

273
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 8: And as I'm sure you know, China is another massive

274
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 8: buyer of oil globally and from Russia.

275
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, person Trump's saying that that may happen, but of

276
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,080
Speaker 2: course it also sounded fairly tensitive about China. Let's see

277
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 2: what happens on that point. Ramsey, thank you so much

278
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 2: for being with us, that is Blomberg's Ramsey Alviccarby that

279
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 2: are joining us taking us through the latest round of

280
00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:40,120
Speaker 2: trade tariffs.

281
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,520
Speaker 1: Well, let's think about how markets are reacting to that

282
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,320
Speaker 1: trade and use now the exemptions that Donald Trump announce

283
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,160
Speaker 1: him his plans. Chip tarris has boosted shares in Asia

284
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,400
Speaker 1: and our market support of Valerie Title is with us.

285
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:51,320
Speaker 3: Now for more.

286
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,000
Speaker 1: It just talk us through what we are seeing in

287
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,200
Speaker 1: terms of reaction to this latest set of announcements.

288
00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,200
Speaker 9: Well, huge relief when it comes to the semiconductor Yes,

289
00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:00,800
Speaker 9: it was a big, flashy number one hundred percent, but

290
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 9: it exempts anybody who is pledging investment in the US,

291
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 9: is pledging to move their supply chain more to the US.

292
00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 9: So we're seeing the likes of TSMC. Those shares are

293
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,960
Speaker 9: up five percent in Taiwan trade. Even the likes of

294
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 9: Navidia traded higher in postmarket, and the likes of Apple

295
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 9: as well. Tim Cook obviously being in the Oval Office

296
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,360
Speaker 9: with Trump when he made this announcement, Apple is going

297
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,800
Speaker 9: to get that carve out that exemption too. So Apple

298
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 9: shares traded nearly three percent higher in post market trades.

299
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 9: This is just another tariff now, Stephen, that we don't

300
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 9: have to worry about. The tariff thread on semiconductors seems

301
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:40,400
Speaker 9: in the rear view mirror the exemptions. The list of

302
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 9: both foundries and chip designers who have pledged investment in

303
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:49,360
Speaker 9: the US is really quite extensive. TSMC, applied materials, Apple

304
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 9: has talked about moving some of their supply chains to

305
00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 9: the US. Navidia as well. There's this big Phoenix plant

306
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 9: that TSMC is building in Arizona, and many chip designers

307
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 9: voice support of using that production line as well. So

308
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,520
Speaker 9: the carve ounts are quite enormous on this one, and

309
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 9: I think that surprised the market in quite a positive way.

310
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,880
Speaker 9: With TSMC up some five percent and trade in Taiwan in.

311
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 2: Terms of the USS of taffs O buying Russian oil.

312
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 3: Targeting India and China. How's that affecting oil prices?

313
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 9: This is a really hard one to put your finger

314
00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 9: on because secondary sanctions are very much known to be

315
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 9: very hard to enforce, and honestly, the oil price yesterday

316
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 9: was way more affected by reports that Trump wants to

317
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 9: meet with Putin and Zelenski. So we actually saw oil

318
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 9: fall at the end of the session yesterday. So it

319
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:40,720
Speaker 9: does seem like to be there's two things pulling the

320
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 9: oil market. It has rallied this week on worries of

321
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,800
Speaker 9: these secondary sanctions, but then yesterday was really much on

322
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 9: a back foot on hopes of a ceasefire when it

323
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,400
Speaker 9: comes to the Russia Ukraine. Or we did have WTI

324
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,880
Speaker 9: falling over percent by the end of the close in

325
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 9: yesterday session.

326
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 1: And just in terms of markets are thinking about the

327
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 1: tireffs more broadly in the effect on the US economy.

328
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,720
Speaker 1: Interesting of comments from Federal Reserve policymakers Mary Daily and

329
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 1: Yakashkari among them about interest.

330
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 9: Rights exactly a dove its shift from some of these

331
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,680
Speaker 9: FED members voicing some fresh concerns on the labor market.

332
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 9: Mary Daily Basically, this is now her second time around

333
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 9: that she's mentioned that the labor market is cooling, because

334
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 9: Kari mentioned that as well, saying cutting sooner rather than

335
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 9: later might be better than waiting because of this cooling

336
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,640
Speaker 9: in the labor market. We also heard from Lisa Cook,

337
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,399
Speaker 9: who is a Fed governor a current voter as well,

338
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 9: saying that it is concerning the latest jobs market. Jobs

339
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 9: data is concerning and those big revisions can be somewhat

340
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,879
Speaker 9: typical of turning points in the US economy. So this

341
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,680
Speaker 9: dubvish language from the Federal Reserve members, it has kept

342
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 9: the dollar soft. It's been weakening for five straight days.

343
00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 9: It's now down a percent and a half since Friday's

344
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 9: payroll report. But when it comes to what's priced in

345
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 9: the front end, I think it's fairly justified. We're pricing

346
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,160
Speaker 9: still around a ninety percent ninety ninety to ninety five

347
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,680
Speaker 9: percent chance of a September cut, So at least no

348
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,440
Speaker 9: one for now is talking about a big jumbo cut

349
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,399
Speaker 9: when it comes to September. That would be something that

350
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 9: would really shift the market. But Stephen, remember we still

351
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 9: have another CPI print and another payroll print before we

352
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 9: get to that September meeting, so that might keep FED

353
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 9: members from sounding any alarm on a jumbo cut until

354
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:21,440
Speaker 9: we get more data.

355
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

356
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

357
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

358
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

359
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,

360
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

361
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

362
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

363
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,520
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again

364
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,119
Speaker 1: tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start

365
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 1: your day right here on Bloomberg day Break Europe