1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Kshatrati this week electric cars 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: in developing countries. I've been obsessed with cars since I 3 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: was a kid, but I didn't get a license till 4 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 1: I was thirty five because for me, driving is in 5 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: the fun part. It's everything else that I like about cars, 6 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: like design. Until I left India when I was twenty one, 7 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: I could tell every model of car just by looking 8 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: at the shape of their front or rear lights. That's 9 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: how obsessed I was. In any case, cars have been 10 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: a good obsession when covering climate and energy. Sure, the 11 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: best climate solution is widely accessible cheap electric public transport 12 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 1: in every city in the world. But we don't live 13 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: in the perfect world and cars aren't going to be 14 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: obsolete for a long time. So the climate solution for 15 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: cars is electrification. And what's happening now in the world 16 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: of electric cars is a big deal. They have impacts 17 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 1: at so many levels. At the consumer level, people are 18 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: starting to learn how to charge when there's cheap power 19 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: available because utilities are creating new teriffs. And on the 20 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: geopolitical level, petro states have to start thinking about how 21 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: long they can bet on oil In the future. There's 22 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,639 Speaker 1: always so much news about electric cars, and for years 23 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: the best guide on this transition has been Colin Mcaracker, 24 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: head of transport for bloomergen Ef. So I wanted to 25 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: invite him on the show again, and this time it's 26 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: because there's something really remarkable unfolding in developing countries. Welcome 27 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: back to Zero Colin. 28 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: Thanks, Akhad. Great to be back on the show. 29 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure talking to you because there's never 30 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: a dull moment when covering the massive shift that the 31 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: world's transport sector is undergoing. You were on the show 32 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, and I'll remind you that the 33 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: headline form that episode was titled It's done. The future 34 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:07,919 Speaker 1: is battery powered electric cars. 35 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 2: Yes, I remember. 36 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: Now about forty percent of our listeners are in the US. 37 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: To them, that pronouncement might not feel true given the 38 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: rollbacks from the Trump administration, but surely the remaining sixty percent, 39 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: the majority of the listeners will be nodding along. And 40 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:26,679 Speaker 1: in our conversation today, ivan to spend a lot of 41 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: time talking about electric cars and their takeup in developing 42 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: countries in the rest of the world. But before we start, 43 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: let's look at the long view. Each year Bloomaginif publishes 44 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: the Electric Vehicle Outlook. This year's report is your tenth, 45 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: and there's a thing you do in that report that 46 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: I really appreciate, which is you look back at your 47 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: own forecasts and you check whether they are true or 48 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 1: you got them wrong. And the thing I noticed is 49 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: that the BNF forecast has typically become more optimistic over time. 50 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: So in your twenty nineteen forecast, you were expecting one 51 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty million electric cars to be on the 52 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: road by twenty thirty. Your twenty twenty five forecasts expects 53 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,920 Speaker 1: two one hundred and thirty million, if we take the 54 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: long route. Why has the optimism grown? 55 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a few reasons for that, And I think 56 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 2: it is really important to say you need to do 57 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 2: retrospectives on forecasts, otherwise they're kind of useless. Right, you 58 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 2: need to see what you got right and wrong, and 59 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 2: also you should tell people what you got right and wrong. 60 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 2: That's why we publish that section every year, is to say, hey, 61 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: here's what we were right about, here's what we were 62 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 2: wrong about. And so I think just general credibility, you 63 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 2: should do that. And also I will say I have 64 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 2: seen a lot of very optimistic forecasts that weren't reviewed 65 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 2: and weren't revisited and are now all sort of commically wrong. 66 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 2: So you go back six seven years, there's all these 67 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 2: people saying one hundred percent of car sales are going 68 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 2: to be electric by twenty twenty five or twenty thirty, 69 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 2: including by Elon Musk by the way, he said, we 70 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: think we can get to fifty percent of sales by 71 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. It's twenty twenty five now and we're 72 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 2: not there and we're not going to be close. But 73 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: so in terms of why ours have changed, and I'll say, 74 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 2: look from twenty nineteen till now, the size of the 75 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 2: fleet forecast has gone up a fair bed, but actually 76 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: in the last three years it's been level and even 77 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 2: slightly down. So twenty twenty five was the very first 78 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 2: year where our forecast, our global forecast, went down, and 79 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:22,679 Speaker 2: that's because we were anticipating and starting to see now 80 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 2: a very strong drop in the US. It's not dropping yet, 81 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 2: but the policy leavers going away under the Trump administration 82 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 2: will absolutely have an impact. And this is an important 83 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 2: thing to mention, is that policy still really matters. You 84 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 2: still get the policies that you vote for, and those 85 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 2: policies have an impact on the market, but zooming out 86 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 2: and sort of taking the long view. I think the 87 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 2: biggest reason why it's gone up over a five or 88 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: six year time horizon is that we reach the point 89 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 2: of organic consumer demand takeoff in China about three years 90 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 2: sooner than we thought we would. So our general view 91 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 2: before was it China and the markets are policy push 92 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 2: markets for the next few years, and then around twenty 93 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: twenty five it takes off. What happened in China is 94 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 2: that around twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, organic consumer 95 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 2: demand now fastly outstripping what the government targets are. You're 96 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 2: over fifty percent of sales have a plug. The largest 97 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 2: auto market in the world, half of the sales are electric, 98 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 2: and that is way ahead of what the government targets were. 99 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 2: What that means is that that kink in the curve 100 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 2: where you get organic consumer adoption has come about three 101 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 2: years sooner than we thought, and so since then we've 102 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 2: adjusted that. In the last few years it's been pretty 103 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 2: accurate we've been forecasting for the Chinese market. But that's 104 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 2: probably the single biggest lever why the twenty twenty five 105 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 2: version is higher in twenty thirty than the twenty nineteen version. 106 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 1: Most you were generous in not calling out the oil 107 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: companies who also put out their electric vehicle forecasts and 108 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: have been historically getting it really, really wrong. One reason 109 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: that is because they didn't probably expect as you were, 110 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: that battery costs would fall as far as they have done. 111 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: And in your own forecasting, surely the cost of batteries 112 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: and thus the cost of cars has played a huge role. Right. 113 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 2: Yes, I should mention that the oil companies were also 114 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 2: their forecasts were dramatically off. On the other side, they 115 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,799 Speaker 2: were dramatically underestimating ev adoption. Battery costs have come down dramatically. 116 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 2: We've been tracking that since twenty ten. That surprised a 117 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 2: lot of people. When we looked at some of those 118 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 2: early oil market outlooks, the biggest thing we noticed was 119 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 2: that none of them were very explicit about what they 120 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 2: were expecting on battery costs. And as soon as you 121 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 2: started to look at battery costs and battery prices, you 122 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 2: sort of concluded, WHOA, there's something really dramatic going on here, 123 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 2: and eventually you're going to get to price parody between 124 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 2: electric vehicles and combustion cars, and that's largely what's played 125 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: out now, not everywhere, Like a nava is still significantly 126 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: more expensive in the US and depending on where you 127 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 2: are in parts of Europe than a combustion car, but 128 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: in China it is cheaper. And again that's part of 129 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 2: why you've seen that organic consumer demand take off. And 130 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 2: I think this gets at something quite central too, which 131 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 2: is that when we do these outlooks, the underlying thing 132 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 2: is looking at vehicle economics, So trying to understand when 133 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 2: can you make and sell an electric vehicle profitably in 134 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 2: different segments and in different markets, and what battery prices 135 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 2: do you need to get there? And that's what determines 136 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 2: a lot of the uptake, along with some other things 137 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 2: around total cost of ownership and fuels and addressable market 138 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 2: and all those sorts of things. But I think that's 139 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 2: important because you're not just extrapolating historical growth trends. It's 140 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: really important not to just say, oh, yeah, I grew 141 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 2: at fifteen percent last year, it's going to grow at 142 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 2: fifteen percent this year. It's important to look where can 143 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 2: the economics work? Where are the economics working? Because vehicles 144 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 2: exist sort of at the frontier of purchasing power for 145 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 2: most consumers. So if the vehicle is way more expensive 146 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 2: in the same class, same segment, they're just not going 147 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 2: to buy it. So you do need competitively priced TVs. 148 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 2: We're getting more and more of those around the world 149 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 2: and that's a big part of why you've seen adoption takeoff. 150 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 2: And underlying that is the battery story, and batteries do 151 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 2: keep getting cheaper and they do keep getting better. If 152 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: that ever stops happening, then I will change my view 153 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 2: on long term via adoption. As long as batteries are 154 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 2: still getting better and cheaper, then the future for electrification 155 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 2: road transport is really bright. If it grinds to a halt, 156 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 2: then use would change. 157 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the US market briefly, because there's that 158 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: correction you talked about given the change in policies that 159 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: have already come through, but there is a further downward 160 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: risk that could come right. 161 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, So we have revised our US EV adoption forecast 162 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 2: dramatically down in this year's outlook, and the biggest thing 163 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 2: behind that is that the federal tax credit is going away, 164 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 2: So the end of September it's gone, and then the 165 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 2: other thing is that the fuel economy regulations the cafe 166 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 2: regulations are being rolled back, and both of those were 167 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: set to be big drivers, along with some parts of 168 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 2: the Inflation Reduction Act that we're incentivizing the supply side, 169 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 2: So virtually all of those are under threat now. The 170 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: other big pillar of USCV adoption has been California and 171 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 2: the standards that California sets for vehicles, and the zero 172 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 2: missions vehicle mandate in California that exists because of the 173 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 2: waiver that California has to set its own standards. Trump 174 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 2: has gone after that waiver. We're not legal scholars. There's 175 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: some groups that say that is the mechanism that was 176 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: used to do that is unconstitutional or wouldn't hold up 177 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 2: in court. But the reality is is that is a 178 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 2: further weakness in the US market. Our outlook this year 179 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 2: assumes that California retained some abilities set its own air 180 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 2: quality standards, and that things like the ZEV mandate in 181 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 2: California may be revised but not fully eliminated. That could 182 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 2: go down further. So we already reduced our outlook pretty 183 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 2: significantly between last years and this year's for USCV adoption 184 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 2: twenty thirty we could revise it further if that California 185 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: ability is confirmed to be removed. 186 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: You said that China is now selling more than half 187 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: of all its new car sales as electric, But there's 188 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: a more shocking stat in the report that this will 189 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: be the first year when China will sell more electric 190 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 1: cars than the total number of cars sold in the US, 191 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: whether that's electric or those massive gas guzzling pickup trucks. 192 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: What is that going to do to the competitiveness of 193 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:16,719 Speaker 1: US automakers. 194 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, this was one that came out right at the end, 195 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 2: and it's actually it'll be Q four, so it won't 196 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 2: be the full year where it overtakes it, but in 197 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 2: Q four we think there'll be more ev sold of 198 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: all types, not including two and three wheelers, but cars 199 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: and trucks versus combustion vehicles and all types of vehicles 200 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 2: in the US, which is pretty remarkable. So it's going 201 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 2: from very few sales a few years ago to overtaking 202 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 2: the entire size of the US vehicle market, which is 203 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 2: part of the reason we say as well that combustion 204 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 2: vehicle sales peaked in twenty seventeen because to make up 205 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: for what has happened in China. You would need to 206 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 2: add now an entire new US vehicle market into the 207 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 2: mix all combustion cars to get back to those twenty 208 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 2: seventeen highs. So that means there's just no way to 209 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 2: do that. There's no country in the world that can 210 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 2: do that. So we have past peak combustion vehicle sales 211 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 2: with growing confidence, and not only are they selling a 212 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 2: lot of electric vehicles within China, but the amount of 213 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 2: vehicles they're exporting is also rising really quickly. So China 214 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 2: has become the largest vehicle exporter in the world, overtaking 215 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 2: Japan last year, in Germany the year before. There is 216 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 2: a real risk right now in the US and US 217 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 2: consumers are not able to access these vehicles that the 218 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 2: Chinese automakers are producing because of one hundred percent tariff, 219 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 2: which basically basically makes it impossible for an automaker to 220 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 2: sell there profitably. There is a real risk that the 221 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 2: US market is sort of evolving as its own island, 222 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 2: if you will. If you think of sort of evolutionary 223 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 2: life forms, these islands that get cut off from other 224 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 2: parts of the world, they grow different species within them, 225 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 2: and there was always a bit of that within the 226 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 2: US and North American market, but it starts to look 227 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 2: like are stronger effect if the rest of the world 228 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 2: is moving much more forcefully towards electrification, and you don't 229 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 2: have to go very far from the US or from 230 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 2: Canada even to see that. I mean, if you look 231 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 2: at Latin America, other parts of the Americas, you're seeing 232 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 2: really strong growth in electric vehicles and coming from mostly 233 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 2: Chinese manufacturers. So there is a competitiveness risk. I will say, 234 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 2: and I've said this before, I'd probably say this each year, 235 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 2: and maybe I need to tone it down a little 236 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,719 Speaker 2: bit each year because it's no longer I say it's Look, 237 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 2: it's still early in the transition, it's not that early 238 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 2: in the transition anymore. We're at about twenty five percent 239 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: of global car sales this year are going to be 240 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 2: plug in, so and majority of those battery electrics. So 241 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 2: maybe it's not so early in the transition anymore. But 242 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 2: there is still room for this to turn around. And 243 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 2: companies like Tesla, though their sales have fallen and a 244 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 2: little bit in the lasted a while in some markets, 245 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 2: they are still leaders in electric vehicles globally, so there 246 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 2: is still room to compete and to be at the 247 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 2: forefront of this, but it does look more and more 248 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 2: like under the Trump administration, the US will fall further 249 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: behind on electrification and on batteries, and it is unclear 250 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 2: yet whether that's something to be able to recover from 251 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 2: if that set of policy these lasts four years or longer. 252 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 1: Some of the headlines coming from the US are quite remarkable. 253 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: The raid on a battery plant to pull out workers 254 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: that came from South Korea, and the sort of machinations 255 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: diplomatically that had to go on to make sure that 256 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 1: they can get back to work and the plant can 257 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 1: start operating again. We hear America first, but at least 258 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 1: on autos, it feels like you might end up in 259 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 1: a place where America is alone. But let's turn to 260 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: developing countries. And there are two reasons why I'm interested. First, 261 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 1: because what is happening in some of these markets is astonishing. 262 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: I followed these numbers, not as closely as you, but 263 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:44,199 Speaker 1: fairly often, and some of these numbers still shock me. Second, 264 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: and more importantly, I think when developing countries start adopting 265 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 1: a green technology, you know the technology's time has arrived. 266 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: Because typically developing countries are buying into it because it's 267 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 1: the cheaper, better option rather than because it's going to 268 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: reduce carbon emissions. And for the last eight years, I've 269 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: been talking to my dad in India about electric cars. 270 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: Every second year, we go and test cars out what's 271 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: on offer, and every year he has said, no, I'm 272 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: not quite ready. He's a consumer who's only ever had 273 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: an Indian made car, so he has this old school 274 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: thinking that you know, they provide better services, so I'd 275 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: really need to wait till I get an Indian electric 276 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: car before I buy one, and then foreign cars, even 277 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: if I tried to convince him about the service, just 278 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: always felt like things were out of his budget. He's like, no, 279 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: I'm not buying an expensive car. I'm going to buy 280 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: one that I can afford. This year that changed. He 281 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: was impressed by the range of cars on offer, including 282 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: from Indian companies, and he felt comfortable buying a car 283 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: from a foreign company, but with Indian manufacturing. He ended 284 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: up buying a Hyundai, and independently, a first cousin of 285 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: mine in Mumbai bought a bid MICROCUV. So in between 286 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: these two decisions, there is something that is happening. I 287 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: say that I think of my dad as a bell 288 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: weather for the energy transition, because in twenty nineteen he 289 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: got rooftop solar just as the Indian solar boom was beginning, 290 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: and now this year he's bought an EV. Maybe the 291 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: Indian EV boom is really going to start. Am I 292 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: reading too much into what my dad's choices are? 293 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: Maybe? But I actually one of the things I love 294 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 2: about working on these topics is you get to see 295 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 2: them in real life, right, And that's kind of what 296 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 2: makes it both professionally interesting but personally interesting too. I 297 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 2: don't actually think you are. And to come back to 298 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 2: the point you made at the start about the relative economics, 299 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 2: I completely agree. And one of the things we've often 300 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 2: said is that, look, the reason adoption has been slower 301 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 2: in emerging economies to date is because of primarily a 302 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 2: question of price elasticity of demand. 303 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 1: Right. 304 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 2: Consumers are very price sensitive and when things cost a premium, 305 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 2: they're not going to buy a lot of them. But 306 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 2: the flip side of that is that same price elasticity 307 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 2: of demand doesn't have to change, but just the equation 308 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 2: completely flips once that becomes the cheapest option, and that 309 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 2: means you go as the fastest buyers, because again you're 310 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 2: price sensitive and you are really seeing that. So again, 311 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 2: if you're sat in the US, this might sound surprising, 312 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: but you're getting higher rates of ev adoption in many 313 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 2: emerging economies than you have in the US, than you 314 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 2: have even in some European countries. And the list is 315 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 2: getting longer. So it used to be maybe one or two, 316 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 2: but now you say, okay, actually we've got quite high 317 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 2: rates in Brazil, in Uruguay, in Costa Rica, in big 318 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 2: parts of Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, Nepal, Ethiopia. These are 319 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 2: not places that are doing this for some sort of 320 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: obligation around CO two emissions or some sense of moral 321 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: obligation to other countries. Primarily, those factors can play a role, 322 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 2: but they're primarily doing it because it's the lowest cost 323 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 2: economic choice. Now, I think there is a bit of 324 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 2: a pushback from some of these countries if they make 325 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 2: automobiles themselves, to say look, look, and India is a 326 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 2: good example of this, we want more of it made here. 327 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 2: We don't want important technology. But what you're seeing in 328 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 2: places that don't make a lot of vehicles of any 329 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,479 Speaker 2: type within the countries, they're saying, look, we're importing this 330 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 2: either way, we may as well import the one that 331 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 2: cleans up local air quality and it's cheaper to buy. 332 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 2: I've said for a long time that, look, if we 333 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 2: wait for electrification to start top down and come from 334 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 2: the wealthiest countries, the wealthiest vehicle buyers in those countries, 335 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 2: and the work, it's way down. This is a very 336 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 2: long transition. This is many decades. But if it comes 337 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: bottom up at the same time, which is what you 338 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 2: are starting to see, and again, not just in a 339 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,120 Speaker 2: few countries, in many countries and in many different segments, 340 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 2: to wheelers, buses, delivery vans, cars, all those are really 341 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 2: moving in a lot of emerging economies, then the whole 342 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 2: thing goes goes a lot faster. So India is probably 343 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 2: the most interesting one to watch, to be honest, because 344 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 2: the numbers are starting to go up quite quickly. You 345 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 2: do have domestic manufacturing, so the model choice is going 346 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 2: up very fast. It's fascinating to hear your dad sort 347 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 2: of relaying that that stuff that we're reading about and 348 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 2: writing about and gathering data on, it's always neat to 349 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 2: hear it come back as personal experience. 350 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: And he did test a few electric cars coming from China. 351 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: So even though India has a tariff one hundred percent 352 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: or so tariff, electric cars even after that tariff can 353 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: be cheaper. Like my cousin buying a bid because well, 354 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: it was just the best car that he tested out, 355 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: even though it was just on the budget of what 356 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: he was buying and was comparable to other Indian electric cars. 357 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 2: I actually wrote a piece just a few months ago saying, look, 358 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 2: if you want your EV market to take off, let 359 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 2: the Chinese vehicles in right. And that may be a 360 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 2: questionable statement, and I think there are reasons for different 361 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 2: countries to consider whether that's what they want to do. 362 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 2: But if one of your goals is to catalyze competition, 363 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 2: give consumers a lot of choice, and see evs take off, 364 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 2: then look around the world. Look at the countries that 365 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 2: are going the fastest. The fastest growth rates are all 366 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 2: in countries where Chinese vehicles are part of the mix. 367 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 2: They're forcing competition, they're bringing down costs for consumers. And 368 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 2: sometimes I hear in the US people say no, no, 369 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 2: consumers don't want to buy these, and I sort of say, well, 370 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 2: let's take out that one hundred percent tariff and see 371 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 2: what happens. Let the consumer decide, and I don't think 372 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 2: we'll see that happen. But it's important to note that 373 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 2: that argument of let the consumer decide used to be 374 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,439 Speaker 2: an argument against electric vehicles and saying no, if you 375 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 2: really let consumers pick, they won't pick these, And then 376 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 2: now it's an argument for let the consumer decide. Open 377 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 2: it up, see what happens. 378 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 1: Join us after the break for more of my conversation 379 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,120 Speaker 1: with Colin mccracker. And while I've got you, please give 380 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: Zero a review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. It helps 381 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: new listeners find the show. Recently, Energy Nerds said I've 382 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: listened to clean energy podcasts for years, The Energy Gang, Volts, etc. 383 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: This is one of the best key topics, good questions 384 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: and important interviewees. Highly recommend ended. Thanks Energy Nerd. I 385 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 1: want to put numbers on how many developing country markets 386 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: are playing in the big league for electric cars now. 387 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: Nepal seventy percent of all new cars electric, Thailand sixty percent, 388 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: Vietnam forty percent. No developing country can quite match your 389 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: resident country of Norway, where one hundred percent cars that 390 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: are sold are evs. But barring that exception, we are 391 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: now at that place where many developing countries have begun 392 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 1: to leap frog develop countries when it comes to new 393 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 1: sales of cars, And it's worth noting these are the 394 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: markets that will have growing car markets in general. You know, 395 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: even if developed countries start sending more electric cars, their 396 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 1: markets are stable or shrinking in many cases. So this 397 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: is happening in emerging markets. It's not a unique story. 398 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: What do you think are lessons that you can see 399 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 1: from these markets that show what needs to be done 400 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: if even more markets want to adopt electric cars. 401 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the things I think to just understand 402 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: the causes of that and why that's happening. We talked 403 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 2: about the economics. The other thing that I think is 404 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 2: important to note. If you map every country in the 405 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 2: world and say what are their biggest imports, you will 406 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 2: find two things come up in almost every single country 407 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 2: in the world in terms of value of imports. One 408 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 2: of them is cars and the other one is oil. 409 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,479 Speaker 2: So if you're looking at that and you're an emerging 410 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 2: economy and you say, well, look, if I'm going to 411 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 2: import the cars anyway, then I'd rather import less oil. 412 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,679 Speaker 2: And so I think one of the lessons from this 413 00:21:55,040 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 2: is that there are multiple factors that can drive these 414 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 2: things forward, and one of them is around energy security, 415 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 2: and countries may say, look, we have good hydro resources 416 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 2: in the country, and we are going to generate a 417 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 2: lot of power from that, and we don't have oil, 418 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,959 Speaker 2: so let's start shifting the fleet, recognizing that it will 419 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 2: take a long time. So I think that sort of 420 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,360 Speaker 2: multitude of factors playing a role in this is part 421 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 2: of why we see different emerging economies pushing harder on it. 422 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 2: I think the other thing that we have seen is 423 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 2: that and this kind of goes against my analyst's sensibilities 424 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 2: because I like the idea that if you look at 425 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 2: enough techno economic data you'll be able to predict things. 426 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 2: But I have actually found, having spent a bunch of 427 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 2: time with some of the people who work in the 428 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 2: EV associations in those different emerging economies, that people make 429 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 2: a very big difference to And again, people's a very 430 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 2: hard thing for US analysts to predict. But individual people 431 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 2: going out and organizing the EV association in their country 432 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 2: that then goes and does test drive events, lobbies for things, 433 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 2: pushes hard with legislators, just sort of makes the case 434 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 2: makes them visible makes a huge difference. So I happen 435 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 2: to know the people who worked on that program in 436 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 2: Costa Rica and continue to work on that. That's been 437 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 2: a great success story, and that's really people driven. And 438 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 2: that's a small country, but this stuff matters. So I 439 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 2: think it's worth remembering that economics and technology are not destiny. 440 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 2: They certainly shape the direction we're traveling, but that people 441 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 2: still matter a lot. And again this gets at a 442 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 2: point where we're not very good as analyst at quantifying 443 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,640 Speaker 2: that because that's sort of an uncomfortable thing to say, Look, 444 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: what effect is people organization going to have? But certainly 445 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 2: I would say it does have an effect, particularly for 446 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 2: things like getting charging infrastructure up the agenda all these 447 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 2: sorts of areas, because eventually you run out of the 448 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 2: early adopters, and you run out of the people who 449 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 2: have detached homes to charge at home at and then 450 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 2: you need some public charging infrastructure. So I would say 451 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 2: those two stick out to me as interesting lessons. One 452 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 2: this idea of we're going to import oil or cars 453 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: and let's make a strategic choice on which one it 454 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 2: is and how that changes over time. And then this 455 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 2: other part about people still really mattering in that organization 456 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 2: effort that makes people, the consumers in those countries more 457 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,360 Speaker 2: aware of the options that are out there. 458 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 1: Now, I'm going to put a name on one of 459 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 1: the countries that you were thinking about when you were 460 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: answering your question, which is Ethiopia, the country with hydropower, 461 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 1: cheap hydro power, and the country that thinks it's importing 462 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: way too much oil, so it's banned the imports of 463 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 1: fossil fuel cars altogether, and that means it's just open 464 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: road for Chinese electric cars to sell in Ethiopia. The 465 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 1: other country in Africa that our colleagues and bloom News 466 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: have written about is Nigeria, where the country had a 467 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 1: huge shift in the subsidies that it was offering to 468 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 1: gasoline and they were taken off and suddenly there was 469 00:24:55,680 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: a solar boom because all the diesel powered generators had 470 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: to go away or become too expensive, and solar took off. 471 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,360 Speaker 1: Electric cars are also starting to see a small boom 472 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: as a result. Are there other parts of Africa where 473 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 1: we should be looking at the electric car transition? 474 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 2: I would say in other parts of East Africa, you're 475 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 2: also seeing some pretty interesting stuff on two wheelers and 476 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 2: three wheelers, and Kenya. I think that's an interesting one 477 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 2: to watch too, partially because with the two wheeler market, 478 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 2: the barriers to entry are lower in terms of setting 479 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 2: up manufacturing. So what you're starting to see there is 480 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 2: some homegrown African companies producing two wheeler electric motorbikes for 481 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 2: the electric scooters and three wheelers for the African market, 482 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 2: and so that's always interesting to see as well. There's 483 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 2: some other markets where buses are picking up, but I 484 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 2: think probably yeah, Ethiopia and Nigeria, Kenya, those are the 485 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 2: ones that I'm seeing as kind of the most interesting 486 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 2: right now, and I think the Ethiopia story is fat. 487 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 2: Obviously it's not a huge car market, but it's telling 488 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 2: you something about the competitive economics and also this geopolitics 489 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 2: of dependence as well. 490 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,120 Speaker 1: Now, I want to bring up one sort of future 491 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: oriented technology that is not showing up in developing countries yet, 492 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: but I wonder what you think about it, which is 493 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: autonomous driving. I was able to take a self driven 494 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: car in San Francisco. It was a weim and for 495 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: the first thirty seconds I was a little freaked out, 496 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:35,919 Speaker 1: creeped out, uncomfortable, and after that I forgot that I 497 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: was in a car without a driver. Many of these 498 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,639 Speaker 1: companies have invested huge amounts of money, you know, mapping 499 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: the roads, making sure that the car knows what it's doing. 500 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: You know, driving is a pretty complicated task if you 501 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 1: try and get a robot to do it. But there 502 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: is a very good reason for combining electric cars and 503 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: autonomy because you get this efficiency combo both in fuels 504 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 1: and in resources, because you're going to have fewer cars 505 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: ideally going around more of the time. Do you think 506 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: autonomy has any realistic role to play in emerging markets 507 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: where the cost of driving is still pretty low and 508 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 1: the roads are much much more complicated, either in infrastructure 509 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: or the way people drive. 510 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 2: My view has been generally it doesn't play a huge 511 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 2: role in emerging economies. I've lived in India for a 512 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 2: number of years as well a shot as you know, 513 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 2: and I just struggle to picture sometimes the street scene 514 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,680 Speaker 2: where it would be helpful to have an autonomous car, 515 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 2: right Like, I think in some cases people would just 516 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 2: sort of accept that this thing would have to slow 517 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 2: down if you got in the way, and some streets 518 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 2: that would just be very hard for them to ever 519 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 2: navigate right, and there's just more variety of people and 520 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,360 Speaker 2: types of traffic and things on the road. So and 521 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 2: also an economic point, the part of the reason autonomy 522 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 2: is attractive is because it cuts at the cost of 523 00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 2: labor of the driver and the asset can be used 524 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: or intensely. Some of that works in emerging economies, but 525 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 2: not all of it. So I generally think this one's 526 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 2: probably a wealthy country story for quite a while, and 527 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 2: I include China in that. It is really fascinating to 528 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 2: see the number of trips starting to go up really rapidly. 529 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 2: We had our just more anecdotal evidence. I mean, we 530 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,360 Speaker 2: track all the data, but again to sort of bring 531 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 2: it back to what people actually see in experience. We 532 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 2: had our whole Bloomberg NIF team, both three hundred people 533 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 2: together over the summer and I was just giving a presentation. 534 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 2: I pause and say, how many people have been in 535 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 2: an autonomous car? And more than half the people put 536 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 2: their hands up because they've been through San Francisco and 537 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 2: ridden in one, or they're there based in Fisheng or Shanghai, 538 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 2: and so that that's quite a quite a number, right, 539 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 2: And that's gone from zero probably two years ago. And 540 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 2: the last time I was in San Francisco, I took 541 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 2: one in a rain storm, like a full on downpour, 542 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 2: and it handled everything really, really smoothly. So the technology 543 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 2: is getting better. The number of trips are going up exponentially. 544 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 2: You're seeing their first permits approved to pick up at airports. 545 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 2: And again, if you look at shared mobility patterns, airport 546 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 2: pickups is a really big part of uber and lyft 547 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 2: earnings and things like that. So there's a lot of 548 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 2: trips there available. When we look at it, though, in 549 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 2: terms of the global energy mix and the global vehicle mix, 550 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 2: the number of kilometers people do in a year is 551 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 2: in the tens of trillions. In terms of total population 552 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 2: of the world, how many kilometers they travel by car. 553 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:21,959 Speaker 2: It's going to take quite a while to make a 554 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 2: material dent in that, and therefore to make a material 555 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 2: impact on the energy story. Now, most of those will 556 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 2: be electric. Most of those are electric today. Anything where 557 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 2: you have high utilization and the economics of electrification are 558 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 2: very good, low cost per kilometer, high upfront costs, you're 559 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 2: definitely going to want that to be electric to bring 560 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 2: down the running cost. And certainly what we see today 561 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 2: is I think it's ninety percent of all the kilometers 562 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 2: traveled in autonomous vehicles today are electric, So that's happening. 563 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 2: It's not hypothesized anymore that market is electric, but it's 564 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 2: probably more like the twenty forties and or say late 565 00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 2: twenty thirties and onwards where it starts to make a 566 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 2: materi serial impact in global transit patterns and global energy 567 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 2: use from transport. 568 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: We've talked about cars mostly because they form a big 569 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 1: part of this transition, but that's not the only place 570 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: where the electrification of transport is playing out right. 571 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 2: No, it's not, and it's kind of the middle of 572 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 2: the transition. So we think about twenty five percent of 573 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 2: cars this year will be electric. That's battery electrics and 574 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 2: plug and hybrids combined. If you go down from there, 575 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 2: like commercial vehicles about ten percent will be electric this year, 576 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 2: Medium and heavy about four percent. So passenger cars are 577 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 2: ahead of those two segments, but they're actually behind the 578 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 2: two leading segments, which is two and three wheeled vehicles, 579 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 2: which is thirty nine percent of global sales this year 580 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 2: will be electric, and buses about forty three percent of 581 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 2: sales of the electric So when you think particularly about 582 00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 2: emerging economies think of this sort of combined ecosystem of 583 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,320 Speaker 2: different vehicle types. It's not all about passenger cars, but 584 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 2: you're seeing progress, rapid progress on electrification in multiple segments 585 00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 2: of once. So it's not just happening in the car 586 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 2: you can picture that you might have in your driveway. 587 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 2: It's happening and how goods are moved. It's happening in 588 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 2: two wheelers, it's happening in buses. 589 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 1: I could keep talking to you for a long time, 590 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 1: but I do have to draw a line at some place, 591 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: and there's one I'm going to draw which is going 592 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 1: to take us outside the developing country conversation back to 593 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 1: the global conversation, which is about the demand for oil 594 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 1: as a result of electrification of transport. I know Bluemaghinia 595 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,880 Speaker 1: has tracked these numbers in the past. How are we 596 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: doing on displacing oil demand? 597 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been tracking this for quite a while. And actually, 598 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 2: what's interesting in the oil displacement story is that early on, 599 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 2: a lot of it was driven by buses and two 600 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 2: and three wheeled vehicles, and just now you're starting to 601 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 2: see passenger cars start to make a material dent. It's 602 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 2: about two million barrels per day being displaced right now 603 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 2: by electric vehicles of all types. Now, that's against over 604 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 2: one hundred million barrels per day of oil demand globally, 605 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 2: and obviously that displacement has been built up over a 606 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,520 Speaker 2: decade of selling electric vehicles. But I think what's where 607 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 2: it gets quite interesting is is the markets where you're 608 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 2: seeing higher levels of EVA adoption, because there you are 609 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 2: starting to get significant displacement. Sort of tells you where 610 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 2: you're going, because there's this kind of mechanistic effect between 611 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 2: high share of new sales eventually translates to a share 612 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 2: of the fleet, and that translates to demand displacement for 613 00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 2: gasoline and diesel. So places like Norway, you're getting about 614 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 2: three to four percent drop in liquid fuel demand for 615 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 2: road transport every year, and that's just as the fleet 616 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 2: turns over. In China, which has been the biggest driver 617 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 2: of oil demand growth over the last two decades, various groups, 618 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 2: including Sinopack, the largest fuel distributor in the country, has 619 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 2: said they think gasoline demand is either peaking this year 620 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 2: or has already peaked. Diesel demand they see growing for 621 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,719 Speaker 2: a little bit longer because of heavy trucks, but you're 622 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 2: actually also starting to see pretty rapid uptake of electric 623 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 2: trucks about sixteen percent right now of electric trucks, or 624 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,959 Speaker 2: of truck sales or electric heavy truck sales or electric 625 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 2: much higher for vans, So that's starting to displace as well. 626 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 2: When we add that all together, we at Bloomberg and 627 00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 2: EFC road global road oil DEMANDAD fuel demand, which is 628 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 2: a contributor to global oil demand peaking around twenty twenty 629 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 2: ninths within four years. Now, that doesn't mean overall transport 630 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 2: demand peaks. That's just road transport. With shipping and aviation. 631 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 2: You could see that growing for another couple of years. 632 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 2: But then our view is that the sort of weight 633 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 2: of that road fuel part, which is still the biggest 634 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 2: consumer of oil, biggest single consumer of oil in the world, 635 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 2: starts to out weigh both the rising shipping and aviation 636 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,360 Speaker 2: part around twenty thirty one, and then you start to 637 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 2: get a peak around there. Now this is a hotly 638 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 2: debated topic, but I would say that you can look 639 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 2: a little bit just at the fleet of vehicles, Like, 640 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 2: the biggest thing driving oil global oil demand is the 641 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 2: fleet of combustion engine vehicles on the road. It is 642 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,720 Speaker 2: still growing. Therefore, oil demand is still growing, but it's 643 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 2: not going to grow for much longer because we passed 644 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 2: the peak of sales in twenty seventeen. Takes above ten 645 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 2: years for that to fully float through the fleet, and 646 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 2: then that flows through to gasoline and oil demand. So 647 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,320 Speaker 2: I think where people go a bit wrong is thinking 648 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 2: of a peak as the only thing that matters. There's 649 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 2: different shapes to a peak. Are we talking a Hemalaan 650 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 2: peak or an Appalachian peak? Right? Is? Is this a sharp, 651 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 2: rocky matterhorn or is this somewhere an Appalachia which has 652 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 2: been rounded off by millions of years of weathering? And 653 00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,960 Speaker 2: I think certainly what our data shows is that it's 654 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 2: more of a rounded story. Certainly right now, given what 655 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 2: we see, this will still take a long time, and 656 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 2: unless you see a significant acceleration, there is almost no 657 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 2: chance at this point on the trajectory we're on of 658 00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 2: getting to this talk of net zero by twenty fifty, 659 00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 2: even in road transport, which is one of the more 660 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,359 Speaker 2: optimistic scenario or one of the more areas where there's 661 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 2: sort of more reason for optimism. So in our EVA 662 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,759 Speaker 2: outlook this year, we said the net zero by twenty 663 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 2: fifty story is almost out of reach. You would need 664 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 2: to see a significant acceleration, and in cases like the US, 665 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 2: you're not seeing that, you're seeing the opposite. So this 666 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 2: is sort of when you work on electric vehicles, you 667 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 2: have to sort of hold hope and despare in two 668 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 2: and at the same time. Right in some there's a 669 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,720 Speaker 2: lot of reasons to be helpful from a technology development 670 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,840 Speaker 2: point of view, from an uptake point of view, from 671 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,800 Speaker 2: just a better experience in cities and urban air quality. 672 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 2: But if you're looking at it purely from a climate lens, 673 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,840 Speaker 2: we're still a long way from being on track, and 674 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,760 Speaker 2: we would have to see more action, not less. Depending 675 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,319 Speaker 2: on which side of the market you're on. If you're 676 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,719 Speaker 2: selling oil, then maybe the hope and despair are reversed. 677 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,319 Speaker 2: If you're a fan of trying to cut emissions and 678 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 2: improve urban air quality in cities and offering low cost 679 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 2: vehicles to consumers in the long run, then maybe it 680 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 2: goes hither way. 681 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 1: It's funny you bring up the Appalachian Mountains because there's 682 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 1: not just nature that has shaped them, but humans do. 683 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,360 Speaker 1: A bunch of those mountains have had their tops cutoff 684 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 1: because of coal, and so humans are driving this transition, 685 00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,240 Speaker 1: and it's been such fun to try and understand where 686 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,680 Speaker 1: this transition is in developing countries, because that's a place 687 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,800 Speaker 1: that few people look at, but more people should. Thank you, Colin, 688 00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:02,799 Speaker 1: Thanks ax Sha. Great to speak to you today, and 689 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,279 Speaker 1: thank you for listening to zero. And now for the 690 00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 1: sound of the week. That's the sound of lithium metal 691 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 1: in liquid ammonia. Sounds very different when lithium metal is 692 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 1: dropped in water, which would be a big bang. If 693 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 1: you like this episode, please take a moment to rate 694 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,040 Speaker 1: and review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share 695 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,239 Speaker 1: this episode with a friend or with someone who is 696 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,840 Speaker 1: as obsessed as I am with car design. This episode 697 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 1: was produced by Oscar boyd Our. Theme music is composed 698 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: by Wondering Special thanks to Eleanor Harrison Tengate, Samarsadi Mosses 699 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 1: andim Laura Milan and Sharon chen i'm Akshadrati back soon.