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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrelt. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt. Not a winning day on Friday, Bummer.

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Speaker 2: The Atlanta Dream were outscored thirty one to twenty in

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Speaker 2: the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: They had a nice lead.

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Speaker 2: They were up by double digits the whole game, and

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Speaker 2: then the fourth quarter they collapsed and the Mystics almost

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Speaker 2: won the game, win for the Dream, but they do

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Speaker 2: not come anywhere near covering unfortunately, so we go zero

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Speaker 2: to one in the w one in one in Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball. The plus money on the Pirates helped to

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Speaker 2: cut down on the Blue Jays. That was the play

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Speaker 2: of the day blue Jays ouch, but Bo Boushett Bobashet

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Speaker 2: got an RBI. I did bet that prop more than

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Speaker 2: here in just one second on that. So it's a

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Speaker 2: one in two day. Down one point three four units.

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Speaker 2: Now we need to have winning days on Saturday and

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Speaker 2: Sunday to even have a shot have a winning week.

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Speaker 2: It's still technically in range. We're now eight and seven

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Speaker 2: our picks on the week, but down obviously from the

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Speaker 2: juice perspective. So let's see what we do Saturday in Sunday. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So I've been playing with the prop bet cheat sheet

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Speaker 2: and I've been betting different plays during the week before

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Speaker 2: I got involved, because I knew I would start to

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Speaker 2: get more heavily involved with Major League Baseball. From the

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Speaker 2: prop bet cheat sheet perspective, Basketball went so well, I

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Speaker 2: kind of wanted to get a feel and I kind

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Speaker 2: of wanted to play some things, and so I was

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Speaker 2: doing other things and betting it with my other show,

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Speaker 2: which is the Hat I'm wearing, and so we had

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Speaker 2: a good week, and so I'm going to jump in

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Speaker 2: here and start to bet some player props for Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball. I don't love player props for Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 1: I think that they're kind of wonky.

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Speaker 2: I think they're very inconsistent, and I think there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of group think that goes into these props.

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Speaker 1: I think everybody.

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Speaker 2: Winds up on the same thing. It's like always a

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Speaker 2: strikeout prop, and it's always like a six and a

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Speaker 2: half and the guy has six or he has seven,

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Speaker 2: so it's somewhere in that range, right, But there's one

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Speaker 2: player that the propet cheet sheet really has liked this week,

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Speaker 2: and so I think it's a chance to jump in

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Speaker 2: given the opponent as to who he is playing. I'm

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Speaker 2: also going to get involved with a total in that game.

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Speaker 2: And I have a college Baseball bet for Game one

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Speaker 2: of the College World Series tonight. We have not bet

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Speaker 2: anything to do with Omaha. Let's get involved with Coastal

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Speaker 2: against LSU here tonight in Game one of the College

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Speaker 2: Baseball World Series in Omaha, Nebraska. If you guys don't know,

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Speaker 2: spent five years hosting Afternoon Drive in Omaha doing a

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Speaker 2: ton of work around the College World Series.

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Speaker 1: I love this event.

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Speaker 2: I don't normally bet it until we get to the

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Speaker 2: final and we have Game one here tonight between Coastal

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Speaker 2: and LSU in Omaha at Charles Swab Stadium.

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Speaker 1: But before I talk about the.

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Speaker 2: Plays for today, let me remind you about our offer

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Speaker 2: from no vig. This is a peer to peer betting

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Speaker 2: platform that's legal in most states. You compete against other users.

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Speaker 2: You can also find better lines than traditional books. You

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Speaker 2: can also set your own lines as well. There are

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Speaker 2: no commissions and no hidden fees. It uses a coin

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Speaker 2: deposit system, but it is real money. You can use

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Speaker 2: the code daily Juice for fifty percent off your first

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Speaker 2: coin purchase up to twenty five dollars. Check it out

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Speaker 2: now at bettingpros dot com slash juice. That's bettingpros dot

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Speaker 2: com slash juice code daily Juice for a fifty percent

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Speaker 2: off your first coin purchase with no vig okay. So

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Speaker 2: let's talk about the first game of the day. Tigers

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Speaker 2: on the road against the Race. So you look at

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Speaker 2: the Tigers on the road this year in Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 2: They are the number one team to road overs so

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Speaker 2: far twenty four and fifteen. That sixty one point five

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Speaker 2: percent of the time they're going over. In the first

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Speaker 2: game of this series, we saw a massive explosion by

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Speaker 2: the Ray's offense. In fact, the Ray's offense has been

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Speaker 2: absolutely on fire, and the Rays have caught the Yankees

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Speaker 2: in the American League East. It's pretty impressive to see.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the entire American League East is really pretty tight.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: Red Sox just beat the Giants last night. The Yankees

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Speaker 2: are only a game and a half up on Tampa,

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Speaker 2: two games up in the lost column. They are three

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Speaker 2: games up on the Blue Jays in the lost column.

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Speaker 2: They're five games up on the Red Sox in the

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Speaker 2: lost column. But the Red Sox are starting to play

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Speaker 2: much better on the road and now seventeen and twenty

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Speaker 2: where they were Red Sox gonna win last night. Actually

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Speaker 2: they're now eighteen and twenty and there are just four

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Speaker 2: games back. That sending seven hasn't been updated yet. Red

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Speaker 2: Sox just went final seven to five, beating Raphael Devers

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Speaker 2: and the San Francisco Giants. So those two teams go

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Speaker 2: at it again. But the first game of the day

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Speaker 2: here today Tigers at Tampa Sawyer Gibson Long against Ryan.

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Speaker 1: Pepiot or Pepiot.

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Speaker 2: This is the team of last names I cannot pronounced,

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Speaker 2: but Brandon Law I can say his name, and he's

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Speaker 2: been good to me this week, whether it be to

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Speaker 2: score a run or to have an RBI now the

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Speaker 2: prop bet cheat sheet to score a run for Brandon Law.

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Speaker 2: He went last week seven consecutive games where he scored

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Speaker 2: a run. He went one one two one one one

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Speaker 2: two before last night, which is kind of crazy because well,

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Speaker 2: let's see Friday night, excuse me, before Friday night, where

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Speaker 2: he didn't score. I'm pretty confident he scored yesterday he's

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Speaker 2: been unbelievable from a run scoring perspective. Fourteen to eight

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Speaker 2: was the final score and he did not score a run.

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Speaker 2: That's back to back games he has not scored a run,

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Speaker 2: which is crazy too. Didn't have an RBI one for five.

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Speaker 2: Brandon Lao, he's been red hot. It was everybody else

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Speaker 2: that got rolling the bottom of the order. The seven

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Speaker 2: eight to nine hitters for Tampa Bay wound up driving

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Speaker 2: in eight of the fourteen runs. Pretty impressive. Prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat sheet likes Brandon Lao to score a run. The

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Speaker 2: price is only plus one oh five. It's heavily juiced

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Speaker 2: to the under a minus one fifty, but it is

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Speaker 2: a fifty percent cover probability, eleven percent expected value.

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Speaker 1: Four star play.

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Speaker 2: So I don't normally get involved with this, but because

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Speaker 2: he was so hot scoring so many runs, I think

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Speaker 2: it's worth a flyer. At plus one twenty. You can

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Speaker 2: look around. Sorry, wrong price, it's plus one twenty. Bet

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Speaker 2: three sixty five has got this at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: Shop a run and find a good price. But he

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Speaker 2: has been so hot. It's been you know, back to

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Speaker 2: back games without him scoring a run. I think go

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Speaker 2: score a run here up against the pitcher for the Rays.

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Speaker 2: So sorry for the for the Tigers, who is an opener.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna be into the bullpen fast, So your Gibson

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Speaker 2: Long will probably go three innings. He's gone three and

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Speaker 2: two thirds, four and two thirds and three innings, he's

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Speaker 2: given up one to one in three earned runs. And

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Speaker 2: then we get into the bullpen here. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: I'm not a big fan of the Tigers pitching outside

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Speaker 2: of the best pitcher in the game in school. I

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Speaker 2: just I don't think that Flarherty is that good of

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Speaker 2: a picture. He got lit up again yesterday and Baz

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Speaker 2: was great. Flarerty went two and a third eight earned runs,

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Speaker 2: did not even see the fourth inning. So the bullpen

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Speaker 2: got used a ton in the Tampa Bay heat yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Tigers threw four pictures out of the bullpen yesterday. So

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Speaker 2: a lot of guys, a lot of high leverage guys

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Speaker 2: have come in and already thrown. So we're back into

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Speaker 2: the bullpen here for the Tigers. So to score a

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Speaker 2: run for Lao is plus one twenty. Let's take a

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Speaker 2: half a unit and throw it on that. Okay again,

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Speaker 2: Prop Thatt cheat sheet, I'm gonna kind of dabble and

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Speaker 2: tip my toe and kind of get into it that way.

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Speaker 2: I don't like to go kind of head first until

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Speaker 2: I have a really good feel for where we are

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Speaker 2: here on at least on this podcast, I like to

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Speaker 2: be a little bit more conservative. So we're going to

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Speaker 2: go half a unit on Brandon Lao plus one twenty

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Speaker 2: to score a run. But I'm also going to talk

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Speaker 2: about him to drive in a run because the prop

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Speaker 2: bet cheat sheet loves this, that Lao will drive a

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Speaker 2: run in today.

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Speaker 1: This is a fifty two.

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Speaker 2: Percent cover probability, but a plus sixty two expected value, big, big,

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Speaker 2: big value there, five star play. He did not drive

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Speaker 2: in a run the last two games, but he did

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Speaker 2: on the eighteenth, and this is a plus. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you can get all sorts of cool prices on this.

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Speaker 2: You can get as good as plus two ten on

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Speaker 2: this plus two ten on Brandon Lao to go ahead

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Speaker 2: and drive in a run here, and the prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat sheet likes it a lot. I mean, these are

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Speaker 2: again plays that I like. I think I've played them

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Speaker 2: this week. I've played RBIs, I have played I've played

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Speaker 2: a Brandon Lao RBI, have played a Brandon law run

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Speaker 2: scored trying to think of what what else have I

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Speaker 2: played on this? For Brandon Lao? That price is wrong,

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Speaker 2: so I need to correct the price on that. That's

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Speaker 2: what I was doing to serve for a second, because

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Speaker 2: we want to go ahead and grab plus one twenty

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Speaker 2: on that, not plus Ooh sorry, okay, that's why hold

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Speaker 2: on a second. Then let me go ahead and correct

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Speaker 2: that because that's not what I wanted. I was looking

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Speaker 2: at that for a second, and that's not the price

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Speaker 2: that we wanted on this because we have to export

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Speaker 2: this properly.

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Speaker 1: Well that's what I.

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Speaker 2: Didn't do, Okay, So let's do that and then we

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Speaker 2: can correct it for the DJ play. So we're gonna

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Speaker 2: play Lao over one and a half runs scored here today,

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Speaker 2: and we're gonna play Lao over one and a half

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Speaker 2: RBIs today at plus two ten. Okay, so two good

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Speaker 2: shots at plus money. We just need one of the

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Speaker 2: two to hit when we go ahead and cover the

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Speaker 2: other one when we make money. Basically, so let's go ahead,

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Speaker 2: and if we hit the over on a run, even great.

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Speaker 2: So here's the fun thing. If Brandon Lao hits a

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Speaker 2: home run, we cover both bets. So we hit them

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Speaker 2: both so it's great RBI and run scored. So we

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Speaker 2: want a Brandon Loo home run. That would be awesome

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Speaker 2: to come in. Equally, I want to look at the

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Speaker 2: total for the game at eight and a half, and

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Speaker 2: fourteen to eight was the score in game one. If

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Speaker 2: you look on the road, scores for the Tigers recently

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Speaker 2: have been fourteen eight, four to one, ten to one,

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Speaker 2: five to three, three to two, five four, eight to one,

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Speaker 2: thirteen to one. They're going over consistently. On the flip side,

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Speaker 2: the Rays are scoring a ton and the Rays now

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Speaker 2: are twenty six and twenty two at home.

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Speaker 1: And the Rays look at.

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Speaker 2: Their scores going back to the Red Sox series ten eight,

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Speaker 2: three to one, in four to three, was on the road,

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Speaker 2: seven five, eight, four, nine to nothing on the road

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Speaker 2: against the Mets, seven to one, five to one, twelve

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Speaker 2: eight and four to one at home against the Orioles,

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Speaker 2: and now fourteen to eight.

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Speaker 1: Here the pitcher.

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Speaker 2: It's a bullpen game for for the for the Tigers

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Speaker 2: and Pee Pot or Pee Piochts. I almost Forigar the

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Speaker 2: guy's name, but he we've pitched up. We looked at

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Speaker 2: him before. He's been up and down.

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Speaker 1: He was great.

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Speaker 2: His last start against the Baltimore Orioles, a seven to

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Speaker 2: one win, eight innings, one earned run, but time before that,

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Speaker 2: gave up three earned runs on the road to the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox and a three to one loss against Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Sorry against Texas rather a four to three win, he

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Speaker 2: went to six and nings, give up two earned runs.

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Speaker 2: Against Houston, a two to one loss. He won six

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Speaker 2: to two thirds, give up no earned runs against Toronto,

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Speaker 2: a thirteen to nothing win, seven innings and no earned runs.

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Speaker 1: I think the Rays are gonna score.

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Speaker 2: I don't mind a team total over for the Rays,

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Speaker 2: but I just think we're gonna see offense here in

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Speaker 2: the middle of the day in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: This is a game in which we're gonna see There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of these games.

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Speaker 2: We're to try to get the game in a little

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Speaker 2: earlier because of the issues, because of what's going on

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Speaker 2: for Tampa. And this game is on MLB Network. It

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Speaker 2: is a twelve to ten Eastern time start over eight

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Speaker 2: and a half Detroit and Tampa and Brandon Lao over

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Speaker 2: a half a run in over a half of an RBI. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so three bets in one game. I'm gonna try to

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Speaker 2: like narrow my search when it comes to Major League

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Speaker 2: Baseball and try to attack one game rather than kind

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Speaker 2: of spray the board. Let's look at one game now.

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Speaker 2: It also means you can fade all this because if

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Speaker 2: it's a two to one baseball game and Loud didn't

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Speaker 2: do anything, then I'm dead and I'm gonna go zero

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Speaker 2: to three on this on this and wind up being

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Speaker 2: down over two units on this game.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see how this.

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Speaker 2: Goes from an experiment standpoint, But this is kind of

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Speaker 2: how I'm going to approach major League Baseball on days

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Speaker 2: I don't love the entire board because I don't love

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Speaker 2: the entire board like Red Sox are throwing. Brian Beao

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Speaker 2: on the road, Land and Rupe Roupe has been very good.

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Speaker 2: I lean towards the Giants to win that game. Mitch

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Speaker 2: Keller's at home against Kumar Rocker for Texas. I like

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Speaker 2: the under in that game Chicago and Toronto. After I

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Speaker 2: just bet on the Blue Jays to score a lot

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Speaker 2: of runs. I think I got blanked. I like them

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Speaker 2: to bounce back and score here today Baltimore is on

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Speaker 2: the road at the Yankees. Clark Smitt going for the

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Speaker 2: Yankees against Zach Efflin, I like the Yankees on the

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Speaker 2: run line in that game. And then you've got the

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Speaker 2: Dodgers in the Washington Nationals with Dustin May going up

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Speaker 2: against Jake Irvin. So I don't mind that. So there's

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Speaker 2: some games on there that I like, but they're all leans.

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Speaker 2: They're not like solid games that I like that I

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Speaker 2: want to bet. So three bets one game Detroit and Tampa.

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Speaker 2: First game of the day. Let's get into it now,

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Speaker 2: Coastal Game one up against LSU.

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Speaker 1: So here's what we've got.

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Speaker 2: Kate Anderson going for LSU. Over one hundred innings pitched,

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Speaker 2: has thera about three point four. He just pitched incredibly

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Speaker 2: against Arkansas. He is a tremendous, tremendous pitcher. He has

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Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy k's. He's number three on the

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Speaker 2: LSU single season strikeout list, only behind Ben McDonald and

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Speaker 2: Paul Skens to pretty good pitchers. He's number one in

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Speaker 2: the SEC this year in strikeouts. He's number one in

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Speaker 2: the SEC in innings pitched, He's number one in wins.

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Speaker 2: He's number nine in ERA and number ten opposing batting average.

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Speaker 2: He is a first team All American Golden Spikes Award

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Speaker 2: semi finalist, number one in the nation in strikeouts, not

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Speaker 2: just SEC but number in the nation, number seven in

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Speaker 2: the nation in strikeouts per nine innings, and number fourteen in.

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Speaker 1: Strikeout to walk ratio.

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Speaker 2: He's really darn good now, the kid he's playing for

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Speaker 2: Coastal up against the Coastal Riley Ekoff three era. He's

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Speaker 2: a stable arm for a team that has won twenty

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Speaker 2: six consecutive games. Twenty six consecutive games. I don't mind

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Speaker 2: taking Coastal on the run line at plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half runs, but that's minus one forty. It's really

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Speaker 2: expensive to do that. This feels like a three to

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Speaker 2: two game, Okay, one way or the other, LSU or Coastal,

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Speaker 2: But with these darn bats, it makes it scary. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. It makes it worrisome when you

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Speaker 2: have the bats, the aluminum bats, the big ballpark at

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Speaker 2: Charles Swab in Omaha. So with both these teams, I'm

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Speaker 2: betting under eight and a half. But at some point

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Speaker 2: during this game I will look to middle it. Like

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Speaker 2: if we get an in game that's somewhere around like

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Speaker 2: over six and a half or over five and a half,

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Speaker 2: bet over Okay, just because in the later innings I

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Speaker 2: am concerned about the bullpens that come in for both

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Speaker 2: these teams. Both teams are well rested, they have their best,

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Speaker 2: high leverage arms. But this is when College World Series

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Speaker 2: baseball gets a little hairy, because we might need like

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Speaker 2: a five to one win one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: I cannot fade chto Leers. I can't. I can't fade Coastal.

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Speaker 1: They've won twenty straight games.

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Speaker 2: But LSU's best team in the country, with the best

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Speaker 2: pitcher in the country on the mount and they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have a massive home court home field advantage. LSU's gonna

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Speaker 2: have tons of fans there on top of Livy Doun.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna bet it live. But pregame under eight and

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Speaker 2: a half and hope that both pitchers are sharp early

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Speaker 2: here in Game one of the College World Series.

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Speaker 1: All right, so plays for today.

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Speaker 2: Brandon Lao over half of RBI at plus one sixty five,

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Speaker 2: Brandon Lao over half a run at plus two to

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Speaker 2: ten for a half a unit raised Tigers over eight

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Speaker 2: and a half for the game at minus one ten

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Speaker 2: and Coastal and LSU under eight and a half at

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Speaker 2: minus one fifteen in the game one of the College

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Speaker 2: World Series.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Pereltz.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow me all my socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice.