Speaker 1: The volume. All right, well, good to hoops tonight here
Speaker 1: at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, hopefull of you guys
Speaker 1: had a great weekend, got a jam packed show for you. Today.
Speaker 1: We are moving on in our player rankings to number
Speaker 1: eight Lebron James, a guy that I'm sure is going
Speaker 1: to lead to a lot of frustration. He's the most
Speaker 1: polarizing player in the NBA. But I really want to
Speaker 1: dive into the reason why he's polarizing, as well as
Speaker 1: why I have him ranked up at number eight this year.
Speaker 1: You'd think it'd be easier to make that case, given
Speaker 1: the fact that he finished sixth an MVP voting and
Speaker 1: made second Team All NBA, but there's a hefty group
Speaker 1: of NBA fans who think Lebron is pretty overrated at
Speaker 1: this point. I'm excited to get into that topic and
Speaker 1: debate it a little bit with you guys today, and
Speaker 1: then hopefully you guys will have your counterpoints, which we
Speaker 1: can get into in our mail bags later on. But
Speaker 1: the second segments, we got six games worth of exhibition
Speaker 1: basketball from Nicole Jokic, Luka, Doncic, and Giannis and Tennekumpo
Speaker 1: in their friendlies as of the time of this recording
Speaker 1: in their friendlies prepping for EuroBasket, I am going to
Speaker 1: give brief thoughts on all three of them, more extensive
Speaker 1: thoughts on Jokich and Luca because both of them have
Speaker 1: kind of interesting stuff going on with their body that
Speaker 1: I have takes about. So we'll have some EuroBasket thoughts
Speaker 1: at the tail end of the show and then we'll
Speaker 1: get out of here for the day. You guys know
Speaker 1: the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops
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Speaker 1: review on that front. Jackson's doing incredible work on our
Speaker 1: social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. Make
Speaker 1: sure you guys follow us there and the last but
Speaker 1: not least, if you disagree with any of these rankings,
Speaker 1: make a case in the comments put mailbag Colin. Make
Speaker 1: your case for why you disagree, up or down, whatever
Speaker 1: it may be, and we will get to it in
Speaker 1: our mail bags moving forward. Mail bags are a fair game.
Speaker 1: You can talk or ask about anything you guys want,
Speaker 1: but I'm also going to be emphasizing some of your
Speaker 1: player ranking centric questions when we get to that point.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So Lebron is easily
Speaker 1: one of the most polarizing players in the league, and
Speaker 1: he's become even more polarizing in this phase of his
Speaker 1: career because it used to be that there was this
Speaker 1: like obvious chunk of fans who had a beef with
Speaker 1: him for whatever reason. It was like MJ fans, you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of the older generation of basketball fans. And
Speaker 1: then because of the Steph Curry Lebron rivalry, when the
Speaker 1: Cavs and Warriors faced off in the finals every single
Speaker 1: year for four straight years. It kind of feels like
Speaker 1: a different era now when you look at how much
Speaker 1: parody there is and how we have a different finals
Speaker 1: matchup every year. But because of that era, there's a
Speaker 1: big chunk of one of the largest fan bases in
Speaker 1: the NBA that dislikes Lebron to a great extent. I've
Speaker 1: struggled to understand that because you know, I've hated Steph
Speaker 1: during that time, but I have such a great appreciation
Speaker 1: and respect for him as as a basketball fan, and
Speaker 1: I wish more people felt that way about Lebron, but
Speaker 1: it is what it is. I'm excited to dive into it, though,
Speaker 1: because I think one of the big reasons why there's
Speaker 1: this kind of polarizing debate surrounding Lebron in his place
Speaker 1: in the league centers around the fact that he used
Speaker 1: to be a lot better. He has certainly declined to
Speaker 1: a certain extent, and for whatever reason, Lebron gets graded
Speaker 1: on like a curve in the negative sense by most
Speaker 1: basketball fans, like we're going to talk about his durability.
Speaker 1: His durability the way that it's discussed doesn't make any sense,
Speaker 1: especially relative to other stars in the league who for
Speaker 1: some reason that gets glossed over because they happen to
Speaker 1: be twenty eight or thirty two, even though they're missing
Speaker 1: more games. It's crazy the way that Lebron gets looked
Speaker 1: at as the old broken down dude when he's sneaky
Speaker 1: been one of the most reliable players in the league
Speaker 1: over the last couple of years, especially really you know,
Speaker 1: in you know, when you compare to the other stars
Speaker 1: at the top of the league. Same thing goes with
Speaker 1: like his overall level of play. Yeah, he's not as
Speaker 1: good as he used to be, but he's still really
Speaker 1: damn good. And there's this idea that like, oh, he
Speaker 1: can't reach the same level, he can't reach the top
Speaker 1: tier guys, there's a certain level of inconsistency. Well guess what,
Speaker 1: once you get to number five on this list, there's
Speaker 1: inconsistency for all the guys. It's so one of the
Speaker 1: big things that I want to emphasize today is in
Speaker 1: with respect to this discussion, Yeah, Lebron's old, there's certainly
Speaker 1: risk that comes associated with that, but when you actually
Speaker 1: look at him in a vacuum compared to the other
Speaker 1: players in this league, he still ranks very highly in
Speaker 1: my book. So let's dive into this a little bit deeper. So,
Speaker 1: first of all, I think that there's this idea that
Speaker 1: Lebron is un liable with his health, and I just
Speaker 1: don't think that's the case just in the Superstar tier,
Speaker 1: so just among the guys that I have in the
Speaker 1: top fourteen, Lebron has played in more regular season games
Speaker 1: over the last two seasons than obviously Kawhi and Embiid,
Speaker 1: Victor wemin Yama, Luka, Doncic, Jiannison, Tennakoumpo, Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant,
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis, and Donovan Mitchell. He literally has played in
Speaker 1: more games over the last two years than nine of
Speaker 1: the top fourteen players on this list. The only guys
Speaker 1: in this tier who are clearly in another tier, like
Speaker 1: clearly more reliable night tonight in terms of being available
Speaker 1: and producing at a superstar level are Nicole Jokic, Chake
Speaker 1: Yilis Alexander and Anthony Edwards. Those are the only three
Speaker 1: guys who are like you can book them for seventy
Speaker 1: five plus games every single year. It's obviously another tier above,
Speaker 1: and Lebron has literally never missed a playoff game for
Speaker 1: his team. Think about how many stars of miss playoff
Speaker 1: games over the last couple of years. So I think
Speaker 1: that label for him is actually unfair. Maybe he'll get
Speaker 1: hurt this year, maybe he'll miss a bunch of time,
Speaker 1: but if you think that's gonna happen, that's wishful thinking
Speaker 1: on your part. And compared to most of the guys
Speaker 1: on this list, he's actually one of the more reliable guys.
Speaker 1: He had a growing injury last year, missed twelve games,
Speaker 1: played seventy. Now what makes things complicated for Lebron and
Speaker 1: the reason why even though he finished sixth an MVP voting,
Speaker 1: I have him down at eight this year is Lebron's
Speaker 1: age does cause him to kind of oscillate between several
Speaker 1: different levels of play throughout the season. We're gonna dive
Speaker 1: more into this concept later on in the show, But
Speaker 1: the way I look at it is like there are
Speaker 1: guys in this list of fourteen who could never reach
Speaker 1: the level that Lebron reached in the time. In that
Speaker 1: time spanning the end of the Anthony Davis era beginning
Speaker 1: at the Luka Doncaje era, he reached the level there
Speaker 1: that there are like legitimately guys on this list have
Speaker 1: never reached. But then there are also guys like there's
Speaker 1: a level that Lebron reached last year in the beginning
Speaker 1: of the year where he was looking especially old or
Speaker 1: that's a lower level than any of the guys on
Speaker 1: this tier are going to reach, aside from obviously Kawhi
Speaker 1: and Embiid who were dealing with injuries, Like there is
Speaker 1: a weird wide range of outcomes with Lebron that stems
Speaker 1: from his age. We're gonna dive a lot into that
Speaker 1: concept in a little bit. I want to quickly just
Speaker 1: run through his statistics and his metrics from this season.
Speaker 1: Then we'll dig into some of the specifics about who
Speaker 1: he is as a basketball player. At this point, seventy
Speaker 1: games played, averaged twenty four points, eight rebounds, and eight assists.
Speaker 1: Guess how many NBI players I guess how many NBA
Speaker 1: players averaged at least twenty four points, seven rebounds, and
Speaker 1: eight assists last year, two Nikola Jokic and Lebron James.
Speaker 1: He also had one point six stocks per game. His
Speaker 1: percentages fifty one percent from the field, thirty eight percent
Speaker 1: from three to seventy eight percent from the line, fifty
Speaker 1: seven percent in effective field goal percentage, and sixty percent
Speaker 1: in true shooting. Let's dig into the play type data.
Speaker 1: Lebron's playtype data was funny to dig into because even
Speaker 1: with his inconsistencies in the level of play that he
Speaker 1: reached at various points in the season, he's still just
Speaker 1: a very reliable shot creator in the half court. We're
Speaker 1: gonna talk more about this concept later, but like Lebron's
Speaker 1: not as good at generating advantages as he used to
Speaker 1: because he's older and he can't move as well, but
Speaker 1: his ability to turn those advantages into quality shots for
Speaker 1: his team as a high level playmaker is still right
Speaker 1: up there with the very best players in the league.
Speaker 1: He finished this year sixth in assists per game. Even
Speaker 1: with his limitations in mobility, especially in one on one situations,
Speaker 1: which we're going to dive into, he ran one three
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety nine pick and rolls, ISOs and post
Speaker 1: ups including passes this year, and on those possessions he
Speaker 1: got one point zero two points per possession, which is solid.
Speaker 1: It's not great by any means, but it's solid. As
Speaker 1: we've consistently talked about over the years, if you can
Speaker 1: run massive volume and get over a point per possession
Speaker 1: in half court offense, that is a huge asset to
Speaker 1: a team. And so yeah, he's not getting up in
Speaker 1: that like one point oh seven, one point oh eight
Speaker 1: that you're seeing the better shot creators in the league
Speaker 1: get on massive volume, but he's still giving you reliable
Speaker 1: half court shot creation. Some specifics, he was very good
Speaker 1: in pick and roll one point zero five points per possession.
Speaker 1: That makes sense, right, and pick and roll you're getting
Speaker 1: a screen, so it's less one on one oriented on
Speaker 1: Lebron's ability to gain an advantage on a guy just
Speaker 1: manned a man versus in the ball screen, where he
Speaker 1: has obviously that screen advantage that can get him downhill.
Speaker 1: When he gets downhill, it unlocks some of his scoring
Speaker 1: ability as well as his ability to pass out of it.
Speaker 1: That one point zero five points per possession including passes
Speaker 1: ranked was in the seventy eighth percentile and out of
Speaker 1: the fifty two players to run at least five hundred
Speaker 1: pick and rolls this here, he ranked seventeenth on this list.
Speaker 1: So he's very good in pick and roll. He was
Speaker 1: good shooting out of pick and rolls. He had He
Speaker 1: hit thirty six percent of his pull up threes out
Speaker 1: of pick and roll. That's one point zero seven points
Speaker 1: per shot. That's very good. So if he got into
Speaker 1: a ball screen and the guy died on the screen
Speaker 1: or went under, Lebron was hitting it thirty six percent
Speaker 1: of the time. That solid fifty four percent on twos,
Speaker 1: mainly fueled by his ability to get to the rim.
Speaker 1: Lebron is a decent short range scorer, but it's not
Speaker 1: a strength of his At this point, he was forty
Speaker 1: three percent on floaters, forty one percent on jumpers inside
Speaker 1: of seventeen feet, So obviously not like Jalen Brunson surgical
Speaker 1: from the short range, definitely not going to dominate games
Speaker 1: with middies and push shots, but with his ability to
Speaker 1: get to the rim mixed with mediocre, kind of middle
Speaker 1: of the pack short range shot making, he was fifty
Speaker 1: four percent on twos and he's still just completely ridiculous
Speaker 1: getting to and finishing at the rim. I'm going to
Speaker 1: save the stats here for later because it kind of
Speaker 1: comes into play in several different types of play types
Speaker 1: like transition, cutting, ISO post ups, all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: But that's carrying his ability to get to and finish
Speaker 1: at the rim is carrying a good chunk of his
Speaker 1: pick and roll scoring. And then Lebron, like we mentioned earlier,
Speaker 1: still just a remarkably gifted passer out of pick and roll.
Speaker 1: If he can get his man on that screen and
Speaker 1: get downhill, he's still incredibly good at setting up his
Speaker 1: guys for lobs and for wide open threes. And that's
Speaker 1: the thing. Even that older Lebron James still with sixth
Speaker 1: in the entire league and assists per game, Trey Young,
Speaker 1: Nikole Jokich, Tyre saliburtn Kate Cunningham, James Harden, and Lebron James.
Speaker 1: He's right up there with those guys. Is one on
Speaker 1: one stuff again a little more mixed. He ran seven
Speaker 1: hundred and forty seven ISOs and post ups including passes,
Speaker 1: generated seven hundred and thirty four points. That zero point
Speaker 1: nine to eight points per possession, which is only very
Speaker 1: slightly above average. He was fifty sixth percentile in ISO,
Speaker 1: fifty second percentile in the post. This is the real
Speaker 1: place where his age is shown. On offense, he's just
Speaker 1: not as capable of getting a step on defenders one
Speaker 1: on one as he used to be. Right again, it's
Speaker 1: worth mentioning he's still above average on massive volume there,
Speaker 1: but it's just not the same dominant force that he
Speaker 1: was in his prime. And again, that's really the important
Speaker 1: thing that I want to keep driving home today, Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: when you're comparing it to old Lebron, who literally is
Speaker 1: in the conversation for the greatest basketball player ever, you're
Speaker 1: going to be underwhelmed by some of this stuff. But
Speaker 1: once you actually start to like put it down next
Speaker 1: to the other stars in the league. It still holds
Speaker 1: up pretty favorably. The main area I'm hoping he can
Speaker 1: have a resurgence in is the post. Last year, the
Speaker 1: year before last, I should say he was really good
Speaker 1: in the post. He's one point one to two points
Speaker 1: per possession. In theory, the post relies more on size
Speaker 1: strength iq less on foot speed. Right, So, as a
Speaker 1: Lakers fan, I'm hoping that he can have a bounce
Speaker 1: back year in the post to improve some his one
Speaker 1: on one numbers. But for the sake of this list,
Speaker 1: I think we should look at him as a guy
Speaker 1: who's lost a significant step in one on ones but
Speaker 1: is still a very good pick and role player in
Speaker 1: the league. So, how is Lebron, as you know, more
Speaker 1: of a middle of the pack shot creator still as
Speaker 1: a scorer able to get to twenty four point four
Speaker 1: points per game on sixty percent trough shooting. First, his
Speaker 1: remarkable ability to get to the rim. Forty year old
Speaker 1: old ass Lebron James attempted the eleventh most total shots
Speaker 1: at the rim in the entire NBA last year. Per game,
Speaker 1: he ranked eighth. Old man Lebron James attempted the same
Speaker 1: amount of shots at the rim as Shay Gilders Alexander
Speaker 1: this year, And that's kind of what I'm talking about
Speaker 1: in terms of, like this negative grading on a curve
Speaker 1: that Lebron faces. Has Lebron lost this? Yeah, But how
Speaker 1: do you guys discuss Shake guil Just Alexander and his
Speaker 1: ability to get to the rim. Like, if you ever
Speaker 1: have a conversation with a basketball fan today about Shake
Speaker 1: kil Just Alexander, it's, oh my god, one of the
Speaker 1: most gifted drivers of the basketball we've ever seen. That's
Speaker 1: old man Lebron. That's what he did last year in
Speaker 1: his efficiency there one point four points per attempt, ranked
Speaker 1: fourth out of the eleven players in the league to
Speaker 1: attempt at least five hundred shots there. That's been Lebron's
Speaker 1: bread and butter his entire career, and he's still one
Speaker 1: of the highest volume and efficiency rim finishers in the
Speaker 1: entire league at his age, and that's a big part
Speaker 1: of what allows him to be such an efficient scorer
Speaker 1: despite being middle of the pack as a perimeter score.
Speaker 1: Nothing to write home about, Like he's gonna hit a
Speaker 1: decent amount of his pull up threes he's gonna hit,
Speaker 1: you know, forty percent of his mid rangers and his
Speaker 1: floaters not gonna you know, take that to the bank
Speaker 1: as one of the elite perimeter scorers in the league.
Speaker 1: But when you combine that with him still just being
Speaker 1: such a remarkable to the rim force, it makes him
Speaker 1: still such an efficient, high volume score. And then secondly,
Speaker 1: I think Lebron has always been underrated as an all
Speaker 1: around offensive player. There's this idea that Lebron has to
Speaker 1: have the offense built around him, and I don't view
Speaker 1: that as the case. It really hasn't been built around
Speaker 1: him in years. It's become you know, they're variations Darvin
Speaker 1: Ham's more five out approach, JJ Reddicks more like kind
Speaker 1: of spread pick and roll four out approach, although he
Speaker 1: also includes five out concepts. But in the last few
Speaker 1: years it's become a lot of Dlo and Austin, now
Speaker 1: Luca and Austin. It's a lot of Luke Lebron having
Speaker 1: to function as a screener and having to function off
Speaker 1: the ball. He's become a very good catch and shoot player.
Speaker 1: Now two years in a row he's been great at it,
Speaker 1: one point to two points per attempt. This last season.
Speaker 1: He made forty five percent of his unguarded catch and
Speaker 1: shoot jumpers. Last year, he got one point three to
Speaker 1: five points per attempt in the playoffs against Minnesota. He
Speaker 1: has functioned as an off ball scorer off of Luca.
Speaker 1: He's good at finishing on cuts. He got one point
Speaker 1: five to eight points per cut last year out of
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighteen guys who logged at least fifty cuts.
Speaker 1: That was the fifth most efficient finisher on cuts in
Speaker 1: the league. He's excellent in transition. Lebron scored the ninth
Speaker 1: most transition points per game in the entire NBA last year.
Speaker 1: A lot of that benefiting off of those hit aheads
Speaker 1: from other ball handlers on his team. All of that
Speaker 1: has allowed him to function offensively off of Luca. As
Speaker 1: you guys may remember, I was critical of Austin Reeves
Speaker 1: last year for really struggling to play offense off of
Speaker 1: Luca and off of Lebron. That's something he has to
Speaker 1: improve on. Lebron has always been very good at finding
Speaker 1: ways to be impactful offensively, even as his role changes
Speaker 1: around him. Now, let's dig into the reality that Lebron
Speaker 1: reaches different levels throughout the season Lebron basically hovers between
Speaker 1: three different levels at this phase of his career. There's
Speaker 1: the top tier superstar, the guy that we saw for
Speaker 1: a little while right before his growing injury last year.
Speaker 1: Then there's the second tier superstar, this is the guy
Speaker 1: we saw for the majority of last year. We'll get
Speaker 1: into those two versions of Lebron here in a minute.
Speaker 1: But then there's the third tier star. This is that
Speaker 1: floor that Lebron will reach that most of the guys
Speaker 1: in this tier don't reach. This guy just shows up
Speaker 1: every once in a while, usually early in the season,
Speaker 1: and it's during these stretches that the noise surrounding Lebron
Speaker 1: and his age starts to get really loud. Now, it's
Speaker 1: worth mentioning that version of Lebron still has a pretty
Speaker 1: high floor. So, for instance, in this last season, Lebron
Speaker 1: had his longest version of this type of stretch for
Speaker 1: the first twenty one games of the season. Lebron was
Speaker 1: mediocre by his stand He averaged just twenty two points
Speaker 1: per game on fifty seven percent true shooting, but he
Speaker 1: also averaged eight rebounds and nine assists per game. Do
Speaker 1: you know how many players in the NBA averaged at
Speaker 1: least twenty two points and at least five rebounds and
Speaker 1: five assists per game last year, let alone eight to nine,
Speaker 1: but five and five. There are only eleven dudes who
Speaker 1: reached that mark last year. So Lebron's basement as a
Speaker 1: player is twenty two, eight and nine on fifty seven
Speaker 1: percent trugh shooting, a level of production only about a
Speaker 1: dozen players in the NBA can achieve. But and this
Speaker 1: is where it gets complicated, because what I just described
Speaker 1: is still very much a second tier star. The reason
Speaker 1: why I drop him to that third tier when he's
Speaker 1: playing at this level is he really can get pretty
Speaker 1: lazy on defense during these stretches. Again, it's usually early
Speaker 1: in the season, and it's getting a little bit longer
Speaker 1: with each passing season, but he can really start to
Speaker 1: cut corners in terms of just his effort and energy
Speaker 1: on that end of the four. I still think when
Speaker 1: Lebron is engaged, he's not an all like, He's not
Speaker 1: like a you know, when he's super healthy, he can
Speaker 1: still reach that all defense level like he did in February,
Speaker 1: which we'll talk about. But like Lebron in the playoffs
Speaker 1: last year, he's a very good defender. But He's not
Speaker 1: like a world beating defender anymore. He can't reach that ceiling.
Speaker 1: But Lebron is still a very very good defensive player
Speaker 1: when he gives a shit. But Lebron is an issue,
Speaker 1: which is that for stretches of seasons, especially at the
Speaker 1: beginning when the when the goal just feels so far away,
Speaker 1: he can be an inconsistent effort and energy I on
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the four and that can certainly
Speaker 1: hurt your team there, and so that to me drops
Speaker 1: his overall impact in those phases to that of a
Speaker 1: third tier star. But that's the basement. Lebron spent the
Speaker 1: vast majority of last season playing well above that level,
Speaker 1: but it's important for us to acknowledge that he has
Speaker 1: as that basement, and that's a big part of why
Speaker 1: I put him down at eight, despite him reaching heights
Speaker 1: higher than that during the season, most of the guys
Speaker 1: in the Superstar tier never dipped that low, and that's
Speaker 1: why I kind of gave that as a hit to
Speaker 1: him on this list. But then Lebron also reached a
Speaker 1: level in the middle of the season when both Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis and Luca were out and he was literally playing
Speaker 1: like the MVP of the league and carrying the team
Speaker 1: to win after win after win against really good teams.
Speaker 1: And we're going to go into those specifics here in
Speaker 1: just a second. But that's what makes Lebron such a
Speaker 1: complicated player to bring. So let's take a look at
Speaker 1: Lebron's ceiling. This stretch that I keep referring to where
Speaker 1: Lebron reached that top tier superstar level. It was sixteen
Speaker 1: games long, so a little under a fourth of the season.
Speaker 1: Call it like a fifth of the season. From January
Speaker 1: twenty eighth to March sixth, which was his final great
Speaker 1: game before he heard his growing again in the Celtics game.
Speaker 1: During that stretch, he averaged twenty nine points, eight rebounds,
Speaker 1: nine assists on sixty five percent true shooting, so the
Speaker 1: same Swiss army knife that we've always known Lebron to be.
Speaker 1: But also twenty nine points per game on sixty five
Speaker 1: percent true shooting. He was fifty four percent from the
Speaker 1: field forty one percent from three on seven attempts per game.
Speaker 1: He was literally the best defender on the number one
Speaker 1: defense in the NBA in that span. That's right, Anthony Davis.
Speaker 1: In that entire span from January twenty eighth to March sixth,
Speaker 1: when the Lakers were the number one defense in the league.
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis literally played just nine minutes and fifty seconds
Speaker 1: of total minute of total game time in that entire span.
Speaker 1: Played a little bit in the first game, got hurt,
Speaker 1: we didn't see him again in a Laker jersey, and
Speaker 1: then Luca returned at the end of that stretch. Towards
Speaker 1: the end of that stretch, but he was a fat,
Speaker 1: out of shape version of himself, wasn't nearly as good
Speaker 1: on offense as Lebron at that specific point in time,
Speaker 1: and Lebron was literally carrying the defense still. And during
Speaker 1: that stretch, the Lakers went thirteen and three with Lebron
Speaker 1: basically leading the way as the superstar. They beat the
Speaker 1: Knicks twice, they beat the Clippers three times, they beat
Speaker 1: the Warriors. When Luca returned, they beat the Nuggets in Denver,
Speaker 1: they beat the Timberwolves. I literally cannot overstate how well
Speaker 1: Lebron played in that stretch. As a fan, it was
Speaker 1: like going back in time and watching twenty eighteen. Lebron
Speaker 1: again twenty nine to eight nine on sixty five percent
Speaker 1: truugh shooting while anchoring the best defense in the league
Speaker 1: and just beating great team after great team. It was
Speaker 1: amazing to watch. And again, that was a level that
Speaker 1: many of the guys in this top fourteen have quite
Speaker 1: literally never reached in their entire basketball lives. And that
Speaker 1: is what makes this so complicated. So let's zoom out
Speaker 1: and let's talk about why put on at eight. Lebron
Speaker 1: has actually sneakily been one of the most consistently reliable
Speaker 1: and productive players in the NBA over the last two seasons.
Speaker 1: I posted this stat on Twitter a few weeks back,
Speaker 1: but it's crazy. Guess how many players in the NBA
Speaker 1: have played in at least seventy games each of the
Speaker 1: last two seasons, so consistently available and to over the
Speaker 1: course of those two seasons average at least twenty five
Speaker 1: to five and five on at least sixty percent trough shooting.
Speaker 1: So again, just think of that as just consistent superstar
Speaker 1: production at least seventy games per season and at least
Speaker 1: superstar production of twenty five to five and five on
Speaker 1: at least sixty percent through shooting. Three players hit that,
Speaker 1: Mark Nikole Jokic and shay Giljes Alexander the last two
Speaker 1: MVPs of the league in Lebron James Again, as I said,
Speaker 1: it's important and it's fair for us to discuss Lebron's
Speaker 1: health and his age as it pertains to which ceiling
Speaker 1: he can reach. And like what you get in the
Speaker 1: postseason matters like twenty twenty three, you get a broken
Speaker 1: foot version of Lebron that you know was a lesser
Speaker 1: version of the playoff Lebron we've seen over the years.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four, they didn't lose to Denver because of Lebron.
Speaker 1: Lebron was incredible in that series. I would argue he
Speaker 1: played at a top tier superstar level in that series,
Speaker 1: a just clutch shot after clutch shot after clutch shot,
Speaker 1: and and just the Nuggets were better, and the Nuggets
Speaker 1: are one of the great teams of this era. And
Speaker 1: then last year against Minnesota kind of in between those
Speaker 1: two levels, and that that's the fair discussion we can
Speaker 1: have as it pertains to which ceiling Lebron can reach.
Speaker 1: And that's why he's eighth and not fifth, right, But
Speaker 1: in terms of actually being available to his team and
Speaker 1: reaching superstar production, Lebron has actually been one of the
Speaker 1: most reliable guys in the league over the last couple
Speaker 1: of years. He's never even missed a playoff game in
Speaker 1: his twenty two season career. So yeah, he's old, and
Speaker 1: maybe maybe this is the year he finally suffers a
Speaker 1: severe injury. Maybe this year he gets hurt and misses
Speaker 1: a bunch of time. But if you're banking on that,
Speaker 1: it's wishful thinking compared to reality, and especially compared to
Speaker 1: the other superstars in this league, who for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: get held to a different standard just because they're young.
Speaker 1: They miss games, nobody cares because they're between twenty eight
Speaker 1: and thirty two. They are inconsistent when it comes to
Speaker 1: meeting the top tier superstar standard. Who cares? But because
Speaker 1: it's Lebron and he's old, it's something everybody hyper focuses on.
Speaker 1: So that's why I have Lebron at number eight this year.
Speaker 1: Now we have one last bonus Lebron topic before we
Speaker 1: get to the EuroBasket stuff, because I know Lebron haters
Speaker 1: very well. We are almost certainly going to get a
Speaker 1: bunch of comments under this video of people glombing onto
Speaker 1: Lebron's on and off numbers this year, and the stat
Speaker 1: is real, So let's start there. The Lakers were six
Speaker 1: point nine points per one hundred possessions worse this year
Speaker 1: with Lebron on the floor versus off. Now for starters,
Speaker 1: it's it's a statistical outlier in every single season of
Speaker 1: Lebron James's career. I literally went back on cleaning the
Speaker 1: glass and looked at every single season, including the early
Speaker 1: Calves years, the Miami Heat years, the second Calves years,
Speaker 1: the Lakers years, every single season of Lebron's career. The
Speaker 1: team has been substantially better with him on the floor
Speaker 1: versus off every single one twenty one consecutive years, even recently,
Speaker 1: old Man Lebron. Twenty twenty four Lebron was not as
Speaker 1: good as twenty twenty five Lebron. Twenty twenty five Lebron
Speaker 1: received more MVP consideration, was second team all the NBA,
Speaker 1: was better defensively, reached a higher ceiling. He was a
Speaker 1: better player twenty twenty four Lebron. The Lakers were eight
Speaker 1: points better per one hundre possessions with Lebron on verse
Speaker 1: off in twenty twenty three, ten points better twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: three points better, twenty twenty one, thirteen points better twenty
Speaker 1: twenty eleven points better, twenty nineteen nine points better. Again,
Speaker 1: you go back further in his career, it gets even crazier.
Speaker 1: There's like a half dozen years where he's thirteen plus
Speaker 1: points better. Two thousand and nine, Lebron, the first year
Speaker 1: he won his MVP, the Cavs were eighteen points better
Speaker 1: per one hundred possessions when Lebron was on the floor
Speaker 1: versus off. So it is quite literally the most obvious
Speaker 1: statistical outlier that I can remember seeing in Lebron's career.
Speaker 1: So I've almost inclined to discount it entirely, but let's
Speaker 1: dive into it any What caused this outlier piece of data.
Speaker 1: It comes down to a couple things. First of all,
Speaker 1: Lebron was second on the Lakers roster in minutes, so
Speaker 1: the sample size of them having a higher net rating
Speaker 1: was actually substantially smaller. He was on the floor for
Speaker 1: most of the time, including all the minutes that the
Speaker 1: starters were out there, and closing every single game for
Speaker 1: a team that won fifty games and was the third
Speaker 1: seed in the Western Conference. So if you're under the
Speaker 1: impression that he was hurting the team, frankly, you're an idiot. Secondly,
Speaker 1: there were a couple of lineup in regularities to Lebron
Speaker 1: having to anchor many of Los Angeles's worst lineups, and
Speaker 1: those lineups didn't perform very well. And if there's a
Speaker 1: lesson to be learned, because like basically go it was,
Speaker 1: JJ kind of made a strategic effort to anchor Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis with more ball handling, right, and so Lebron often
Speaker 1: had to anchor these bench units where he was like
Speaker 1: the only ball handler and they'd have like a G
Speaker 1: League center because of the week center rotation, and those
Speaker 1: lineups got rolled. And there's no doubt that Lebron isn't
Speaker 1: as capable of floor raising bad NBA players anymore, and
Speaker 1: that maybe something that JJ Reddick has to address moving forward.
Speaker 1: But even within that context, when I see twenty one
Speaker 1: consecutive seasons of excellent on off numbers, including recent seasons
Speaker 1: of old man Lebron, who wasn't even as good as
Speaker 1: the player we saw this last year, I'm inclined, excuse me,
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to basically just consider it a statistical outlier.
Speaker 1: And again, like Lebron more or less was the same
Speaker 1: player at this year than he was last year, and
Speaker 1: the data looks so different. It looks like an outlier
Speaker 1: to me. But again, this kind of floor raising piece,
Speaker 1: this inability to carry inferior lineups the way he used to,
Speaker 1: that inconsistency of the level of player that he can reach,
Speaker 1: is all part of the reason why a guy that
Speaker 1: can reach the ceiling lebron reached in February ranks down
Speaker 1: at number eight for me this year. Now, let's do
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Speaker 1: see dknng co slash audio. I watched a bunch of
Speaker 1: tape of Jannis Luca and Nicole Jokic and their early
Speaker 1: friendlies as they prepare for EuroBasket, So I wanted to
Speaker 1: quick touch on all three of these guys here for
Speaker 1: about ten minutes. First of all, Luka Doncic, I just
Speaker 1: think he looks amazing physically. He's very clearly much leaner.
Speaker 1: He also looks to have maintained much of his strength,
Speaker 1: which means that they're clearly staying dedicated to the weight
Speaker 1: room through this process. Again, like the idea is you
Speaker 1: don't want to get skinny, you know, Like I remember
Speaker 1: when Lebron went on his like weird fish diet in
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen. He came into the twenty fifteen season like
Speaker 1: considerably carrying less muscle mass, and it was something that
Speaker 1: was a bad idea, and you could tell like Lebron
Speaker 1: knew it, like he was like, oh shit, Like this
Speaker 1: diet that I went on was not a good idea.
Speaker 1: And I remember even talked before the season, He's like, oh,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be quicker this year. And he may have
Speaker 1: been a tiny bit quicker, but that lack of strength
Speaker 1: ended up really hurting him. And then almost immediately Lebron
Speaker 1: went back to a different diet and loaded up in
Speaker 1: the weight room and got his muscle mass back. Right,
Speaker 1: I can see several examples of Luca looking like he
Speaker 1: has that extra burst while still having the strength to
Speaker 1: power through people. His Euro steps have more of like
Speaker 1: a side to side pop to them. There were several
Speaker 1: like examples of him changing direction at full full speed
Speaker 1: that looked really good, like chaining together lots of moves
Speaker 1: and being able to really pop side to side and
Speaker 1: shed defenders, especially driving close out, so you can see
Speaker 1: like a real quickness to his first step that really
Speaker 1: didn't seem to be the case last year. So I
Speaker 1: think overall the physical transformation is going to be huge
Speaker 1: for him. I'm very, very excited to see the level
Speaker 1: that Luca can reach this year. Now some specifics. His
Speaker 1: play type efficiency in the two friendlies have been off
Speaker 1: the charts for sylvania one point one sission of points
Speaker 1: per possession, including passes on fifty eight, pick and rolls, ISOs,
Speaker 1: and post ups. He's been excellent in all three categories.
Speaker 1: His jumper's been a bit off four for eight off
Speaker 1: the catch, which is fine. Obviously, He's just six for
Speaker 1: twenty one off of off the dribble jump shots so far.
Speaker 1: That's always a rhythm thing. I actually expect Luca to
Speaker 1: have a good perimeter jump shooting season, driven by his
Speaker 1: improved conditioning. Step back threes are all about getting separation
Speaker 1: in the lyft, and that can often become a problem
Speaker 1: when you tire out, and I think Luca is going
Speaker 1: to be in good shape this year. He's five for
Speaker 1: seven on floaters. That's a really good sign. If you
Speaker 1: guys remember his short range touch was a major issue
Speaker 1: last year, so that was something I thought was a
Speaker 1: really good sign. I think in general that's super important.
Speaker 1: And this is the one weird thing. He's not taking
Speaker 1: mid range jumpers at all. Out of the twenty nine
Speaker 1: jump shots he took in the two games, just one
Speaker 1: of them was a mid range two, And I really
Speaker 1: think that's an important part of his game. When he's
Speaker 1: clicking on all cylinders. Again, it's like the Anthony Edwards
Speaker 1: debate we were having surrounding shake kiods. As Alexander, there's a
Speaker 1: delicate balance between large sample efficiency that can come from
Speaker 1: heavily indexing tour ards threes and the possession to possession
Speaker 1: consistency and the kind of like durability against rough shooting
Speaker 1: nights that you can have if you mix in more
Speaker 1: short range scoring. So on the one hand five or
Speaker 1: seven on floaters in two games. Like, I think that's
Speaker 1: a good sign that Lucas getting some of his floater
Speaker 1: touched back. But the jump shot piece him relying almost
Speaker 1: entirely on threes is not something that I love. But again,
Speaker 1: and this is something I want to be clear about.
Speaker 1: Even with the five for seven, even with the poor shooting,
Speaker 1: the six for twenty one on the off the dribble
Speaker 1: jump shots, I'm not really concerned with shot making at
Speaker 1: this point in the summer. It's just such a small
Speaker 1: sample size, especially when we're just looking at a couple
Speaker 1: of friendlies. I'm mainly concerned by just how these guys
Speaker 1: look physically, and I'm just thrilled with how Luca looks physically,
Speaker 1: and I'm super excited to watch him this year. Nikoley Okic.
Speaker 1: So I was having dinner with oamar Is on about
Speaker 1: a week ago and he was like telling me, he's
Speaker 1: like he's like, dude, Jokic looks like he's put on
Speaker 1: some weight. And I was like, wow, really okay. So,
Speaker 1: like I go home and I dig into the film
Speaker 1: and he's still moving really well, like moving just fine.
Speaker 1: And what's really fascinating to me about that is, Like
Speaker 1: I think like Jokic generally is kind of dowe, right,
Speaker 1: and so there's no way to tell how much of
Speaker 1: that is, Like maybe he's worked out a little bit
Speaker 1: this summer and put on some muscle, or maybe he's
Speaker 1: put on a little bit of fat, or maybe some
Speaker 1: combination of the two. But this is what Adam and
Speaker 1: I got into that night. Like Adam was arguing to
Speaker 1: me that it actually might be good for him to
Speaker 1: be bigger under the circumstances that they're playing in this
Speaker 1: particular year. And I think I agree with him. Jokic
Speaker 1: being bigger is the right approach when you factor in
Speaker 1: one this Nuggets team is much deeper than last year,
Speaker 1: so they should be able to keep his minutes down. Again,
Speaker 1: what I'm always scared of when a guy's carrying extra
Speaker 1: weight is the wear and tear on the lower body.
Speaker 1: And so even if like even for a player puts
Speaker 1: on muscle, like if you're just weighing fifteen pounds more,
Speaker 1: your every cut, every change of direction, every jump, every landing,
Speaker 1: all of that just wears your lower body down more. Right, So,
Speaker 1: like the ability to keep his minutes in check by
Speaker 1: having a legitimate backup center. By having just a much
Speaker 1: deeper rotation with which you can carry yourself through the
Speaker 1: regular season, that should allow them to carry a bigger
Speaker 1: Yokic throughout the season. The second piece of it is
Speaker 1: acknowledge reality, and that is that Oklahoma City defended Jokic
Speaker 1: into the worst three game stretch of playoff basketball that
Speaker 1: we've ever seen from him, and they did it by
Speaker 1: having Isaiah Hartenstein overplay his right shoulder with chet holmgrin
Speaker 1: behind and then just swarming him with their perimeter guys.
Speaker 1: I think Jokic carrying some more strength and weight to
Speaker 1: handle that swarming attack would actually be really helpful. His
Speaker 1: jumpers off, He's just one for eight so far, and
Speaker 1: the one he made was kind of like a grifty
Speaker 1: like pump, fake lean in and one that he got.
Speaker 1: But as I was saying with Luca, I'm not really
Speaker 1: concerned with small sample shooting numbers like that. Excuse me.
Speaker 1: I'm more concerned with just how guys look physically in
Speaker 1: these tournaments, and I think Jokic like he's mauling everybody
Speaker 1: in these friendli It's like he's on seventeen post ups
Speaker 1: so far in these games. He's generated one point four
Speaker 1: to seven points per possession, including passes. It's just completely ridiculous.
Speaker 1: And he's literally just tossing people around like rag dolls. Yeah, honest,
Speaker 1: Just very briefly on him. He's only played one game.
Speaker 1: He's only at the time of this recording, he's just
Speaker 1: played in one friendly against Latvia. But he looks fantastic.
Speaker 1: He had twenty five points on twelve shots, bullying everybody
Speaker 1: on Latvia through the rim, several possessions where like dudes
Speaker 1: were kind of draped on him and he just powered
Speaker 1: through him with that shoulder and just goes right to
Speaker 1: the front of the rim. You know, just classic y honest.
Speaker 1: And then the jumper looked great. At the risk of
Speaker 1: being hypocritical after I just said that, I'm not too
Speaker 1: concerned about jump shooting here. It's more just that, specifically
Speaker 1: with Yiannis, I'm excited about jump shooting right because he's
Speaker 1: just kind of become a pretty reliable mid range guy.
Speaker 1: We talked about that last year often, and once again,
Speaker 1: his first game playing you know, real five on five,
Speaker 1: serious basketball in a long time, hits a turnaround jumper
Speaker 1: over his right shoulder. HiT's like a one leg fade
Speaker 1: away off the right block. He gets three more pull
Speaker 1: up mid rangers out of hesitation dribbles, just like that
Speaker 1: little touch that he's demonstrating. Again, that's a real small
Speaker 1: sample and I'm not overreacting to it. But just over
Speaker 1: the last year, Giannis has shown a proficiency in the
Speaker 1: mid range as a jump shooter that I think bodes
Speaker 1: really well for him as he develops into an older
Speaker 1: half court score. But overall, I'm just super excited for
Speaker 1: your basket this year. We're gonna have some kind of
Speaker 1: coverage of it when we get to that point. I
Speaker 1: can't promise that we're certainly not gonna cover every game,
Speaker 1: but we got three of the top four players in
Speaker 1: the world playing in this tournament. We should get some
Speaker 1: really high level basketball, and we will definitely cover it
Speaker 1: to search to a certain extent this year. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: That's all I have for today is always sincerely appreciate
Speaker 1: you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We
Speaker 1: will be back on Wednesday with number seven. I will
Speaker 1: see you guys then.