1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 2: We start with the worst kept secret in Washington, Joe 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 2: Biden's running for reelection. Not with a video today, because 7 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 2: that's what you do now, dropped at six o'clock this morning. 8 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 2: It opens with the menacing view of the mob attacking 9 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 2: the capital on January sixth. 10 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 3: When I ran for president four years ago, I said, 11 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 3: we're in a battle for the soul of America, and 12 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 3: we still are. The question your facing is whether in 13 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 3: the years ahead we have more freedom or less freedom, 14 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 3: more rights are fewer. 15 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 2: This goes on for several minutes, with reaction now from 16 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 2: the Republican National Committee. Quote, Biden is so out of 17 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: touch that after creating crisis after crisis, he thinks he 18 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 2: deserves another four years of voters let Biden finish the job, 19 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 2: which is the theme of the announcement which finished the job. 20 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 2: Inflation will continue to skyrocket, it says, crime rates will more, 21 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: fentanyl will cross our open borders. Children will continue to 22 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 2: be left behind, American families worse off, and reaction as 23 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,919 Speaker 2: well from the man Joe Biden may well be running 24 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 2: against once again, Donald Trump up with his own video. 25 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 4: You could take the five worst presidents in American history 26 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 4: and put them together and they would not have done 27 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: the damage Joe Biden has done to our nation in 28 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,199 Speaker 4: just a few short years. 29 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: He starts by zeroing in on the economy, that he 30 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: gets to other issues including the border, ends up at 31 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 2: the end resolving with his message that the twenty twenty 32 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 2: election was stolen. With that, we bring in someone who 33 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 2: covered both presidents. He was there for all four years 34 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 2: of Donald Trump and is of course in the briefing 35 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 2: room now every day in the West Wing with President Biden. 36 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: That would be Bloomberg. White House reporter Jordan Fabian's great 37 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 2: to see Jordan. A lot of folks questioning the timing 38 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 2: of this announcement here and why not wait. 39 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 5: It's interesting because the President had led his supporters to 40 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 5: believe that he could have all the time he needs, 41 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 5: wait as long as he could. But the White House 42 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 5: was getting a lot of incoming from reporters and from 43 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 5: allies about what the president's timing was, and also a 44 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 5: lot of those questions touched on the president's age, and 45 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,679 Speaker 5: that went directly to the question of is he going 46 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 5: to run again as being the man who's already the 47 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 5: oldest US president ever, and so people in his inner 48 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 5: circle I think wanted to put those questions to rest 49 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 5: by putting out this announcement that he is in fact 50 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 5: going to. 51 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 6: Be seeking reelection. 52 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 2: And this wasn't the soft launch some talked about. Right, 53 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 2: He's actually got paperwork. This is a real announcement. 54 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 7: Right. 55 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 5: He has filed with the Federal Election Commission, which allows 56 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 5: him to start raising money. He announced a campaign manager 57 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 5: and a deputy campaign manager, and also a group of 58 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:52,519 Speaker 5: campaign co chairs. These are effectively people in Democratic Party 59 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 5: who can vouch for President Biden among voters and also 60 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 5: big donors. 61 00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 6: Who will need to contribute to this reelection effort. 62 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: You know what's coming up here is any plans to 63 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 2: hit the road or you know, sit with the video 64 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 2: and keep watching it over again. 65 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 5: More of the latter, Joe, It's uh, we don't really 66 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 5: have a schedule of campaign events at the moment. This 67 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 5: announcement really does feel like it was designed to get 68 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 5: the monkey off their backs, so to speak, and just 69 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 5: get it out there. Stop calling me, stop emailing me, 70 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 5: stop texting. 71 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 6: He's running and we're moving on. 72 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 5: And look, the president has a clear field on the 73 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 5: Democratic side. He is not facing a serious primary challenger, 74 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 5: so he's not really under pressure to campaign, and at 75 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 5: the same time he can use his bully pulpit as 76 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 5: president through these official events to get his message out. 77 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 6: He's speaking to union group right. 78 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 5: Now, and so I would expect more events like that 79 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 5: rather than campaign style events. 80 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 2: Soon they'll learn they'll never get Jordan Fabian off their backs. 81 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: Thank you, Jordan. It's great to see you appreciate the 82 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 2: insights today on Bloomberg as we bring in the voice 83 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 2: of Barbara Perry, professor and director of Presidential Studies at 84 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 2: the University of Virginia's Miller's. Barbara is the author of 85 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 2: an editor of twelve books on presidential history, and we 86 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,839 Speaker 2: really wanted a sense of perspective here from someone who 87 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: has that sort of view on politics, and Professor, it's 88 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 2: great to have you with us here. Jordan, of course 89 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 2: mentioned Joe Biden's age. This is what we're going to 90 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 2: hear about, along with policy disagreements from Republicans for the 91 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 2: next year. 92 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 6: And change. 93 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 2: What is this campaign going to look like for an 94 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 2: eighty something year old man, they have to have him 95 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 2: out there doing push. 96 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 6: Ups every day? 97 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 8: Well, I don't think that. But for those who watched 98 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 8: the video this morning or this afternoon, they will see 99 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 8: a little clip of Joe Biden running. So I think 100 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 8: every opportunity that they can take to put him in 101 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 8: settings where he's comfortable and where he can show that 102 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 8: he is presidential and that he has the physical and 103 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 8: mental strength to carry on, more's the better. But note 104 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 8: that this was a campaign video announcement rather than one 105 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 8: that was live and on stage. 106 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: What do you make of that? Is that a value 107 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 2: to you? Because he's been criticized for it, But when 108 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 2: you look around, you know Asa Hutchinson did the same thing. 109 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 2: I think Nicky Haley had a video. This is what 110 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 2: we do now. It's not so much about a live 111 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 2: event or a news conference, is it. 112 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 8: I think that's so true, so it doesn't look like 113 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 8: it's out of the ordinary. And moreover, we are such 114 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 8: a visual society and a video society these days at 115 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 8: all ages. The Miller Center, for example, where I'm at 116 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 8: the University of Virginia. During the shutdown, and during COVID 117 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 8: really got a bounce in its online audience, which we've 118 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 8: always been looking for nationwide. So that's just where we 119 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 8: are now, it's where politicians are and obviously we saw 120 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 8: this with the January sixth Committee and the kinds of 121 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 8: video and the kinds of media that they use now 122 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 8: it really captures people. So again for people who saw 123 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 8: the video, we'll see it, We'll see how fast paced 124 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 8: it is. And I think that meets again Americans, particularly 125 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 8: younger Americans, where they are. But it also the fast 126 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 8: pace of it, I think leads to the message that 127 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 8: they want to get out that Joe Biden's up to 128 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 8: the task and up to the job. 129 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, well he's a candidate now, he's of course still 130 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 2: the president of the United States, but he's also seeking 131 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 2: to keep the job. And it just changes the way 132 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 2: that Americans look at the president, right, So that I 133 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 2: guess part of the campaign is going to be doing 134 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 2: the job, being seen doing the work of the people 135 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 2: from the White House. 136 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 8: Yeah, so you've got two points going there. I think 137 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 8: one is that, as we've already mentioned, the theme of 138 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 8: and it looks like this is going to be the 139 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 8: bumper sticker finish the job, and so you have that 140 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 8: category of continuing the presidency. But the other factor that 141 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 8: you mentioned is coming from the White House. The White 142 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 8: House itself is such a symbol. Parts of the White 143 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 8: House are such a symbol. So the resolute desk in 144 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 8: the Oval Office, the famous East Room, or standing in 145 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 8: on the second floor of the White House with the 146 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 8: Washington Monument and the Jefferson Memorial in the back, all 147 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 8: these things help to gin up, it seems to me, 148 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 8: the vision and image and symbolism of the president himself. 149 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 2: He of course campaigned four years ago, and we are 150 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: noting the anniversary of his announcement in twenty or for 151 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 2: the twenty campaign as a uniter, that was the story, professor, 152 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 2: that he was going to unite the country. After these 153 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 2: four fractured years under Donald Trump coming out of COVID, 154 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 2: can he still tell that story. He's asking for time 155 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 2: to finish the job. But the country feels more divided 156 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 2: than it might have been four years ago. 157 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 8: I'm not sure it's more divided. It seems to me 158 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 8: to be as at least equally divided. I think we're 159 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 8: just in that time frame right now. We're in that 160 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 8: setting and that is the case around the world. Look 161 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 8: at the other democracies around the world and the polarization 162 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 8: that is occurring. So it is true that to be 163 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 8: the great uniter, as George W. Bush that he was 164 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 8: going to be, it's just so much harder to do 165 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 8: that now unless there's some horrible tragedy like nine to 166 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 8: eleven the rally people around the flag. So I would 167 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 8: say that, you know, he probably gets a low mark 168 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 8: on getting rid of polarization. But what he was also saying, 169 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,239 Speaker 8: I think this will be another theme from the video 170 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 8: was preserving freedom. And obviously the two sides have different 171 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 8: views of freedom, and so that's going to be the 172 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 8: difficult sticking point, it seems to me. 173 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: Also with a nod to the abortion issue. There some 174 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 2: things don't always need to be said in these ads, 175 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 2: do they exactly? Well, so we've got a lot of it. 176 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 8: And I was just going to say, though you wouldn't 177 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 8: have noticed a sign of women gathered outside the Supreme 178 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 8: Court saying, you know, protect a right to abortion, that 179 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 8: is healthcare for women. And the book issue, they notice 180 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 8: the banning of the book. So just these little hints 181 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 8: of what he means by protecting freedom in addition to 182 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 8: he said, there are some people who want to tell you, 183 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 8: he said who you could love. Actually that should be 184 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 8: whom you can love. So a little grammar error there, 185 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 8: but that also relates obviously to marriage equality, and that's 186 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 8: what thing. 187 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 2: Yes, she did edit twelve books, people, and. 188 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 8: Went to Catholic school. 189 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 2: He if you want to run that script past Professor Perry, 190 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 2: what's the president of a president running against a former president. 191 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 2: We haven't had so many occasions like this. How will 192 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 2: that direct the way this debate takes place? 193 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 8: Well, Donald Trump will hope that this turns out to 194 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 8: be the eighteen nineties and that it will be a 195 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 8: rematch of Grover Cleveland, the former president who was defeated 196 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 8: by Benjamin Harrison. And then Cleveland comes back and runs 197 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 8: again against Harrison, who's running for a second term, and 198 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 8: Cleveland wins. So he's the only president thus far to 199 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 8: be a former president running for a non consecutive second term. 200 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 8: And that's what Donald Trump has to hope for. So, yes, 201 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 8: we haven't seen this very frequently, but when we did 202 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 8: see it worked in the favor of what Donald Trump 203 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 8: hosts will work for him. 204 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 2: Well, that's interesting because you know, here you have this 205 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 2: sort of the term is in the past, that those 206 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 2: four years are now encapsulated in history books. It's kind 207 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 2: of there in a vacuum to be looked at and 208 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 2: judged as opposed to a sitting president with rolling issues 209 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 2: and developing narratives around him. Which one is better, which 210 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 2: one is worse? 211 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 8: I think the latter is worse. As you're saying that 212 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 8: people are feeling in real time what the president is 213 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 8: doing for good or ill, and so it is just 214 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 8: the nature of the beast. If you're running as an incumbent, 215 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 8: not only do you have a record, but you also 216 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 8: have day to day in real time. You're taking actions, 217 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 8: you're saying things. You're maybe making a misstep or two, 218 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 8: or have a real crisis that you don't handle well. 219 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 8: So we see the most recent incumbents who have lost. 220 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 8: I mean Trump lost because of the crisis of COVID 221 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:49,359 Speaker 8: Bush forty one loss because of the crisis over the economy. 222 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 8: The same with Jimmy Carter plus the Iranian hostage crisis. 223 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 8: And Ford was not previously elected, but he was an 224 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 8: incumbent when he lost to Jimmy Carter, and a lot 225 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 8: of that had to do with the the misstep that 226 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 8: was seen at the time is pardoning Richard Nixon. 227 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 2: That is just going to be a fascinating element to 228 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 2: watch unfold in real time. To your point, professor, when 229 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 2: we consider the age issue here, to what extent will 230 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 2: that be held against Joe Biden, knowing that he's also 231 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 2: running against a pretty old man. We talk about Joe 232 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 2: Biden's age with Donald Trump's only four years behind him. 233 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 8: Right, that helps a lot for Joe Biden if you 234 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 8: were running against again. We're going to presume right now 235 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 8: that Trump will be the nominee, and if he is, 236 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 8: there is that just slight age difference for some reason, 237 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 8: even though one would think just by looking at them 238 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 8: that and hearing the medical reports about Joe Biden as 239 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 8: someone who as an octagenarian, is an excellent health, was 240 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 8: not a smoker or a drinker, so he didn't do 241 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 8: the kinds of things that can lead to premature death. 242 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 8: And then again, looking at someone like Donald Trump, who 243 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 8: doesn't seem to be in the best shape, one would 244 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 8: think it would work to Biden's favor. But certainly the 245 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 8: Republicans and clearly Trump will pick up just like the 246 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 8: schoolyard bully who calls a kid who wears glasses four eyes. 247 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 8: He's going to do his sleepy Joe, and you know 248 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 8: Joe isn't up to the task mentally. And I would 249 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 8: also point out the historical resonance of John Kennedy versus 250 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 8: Richard Nixon. John Kennedy was actually in worst shape in 251 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 8: healthwise than was Richard Nixon, and they were only about 252 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 8: four or five years apart in age. But Nixon was 253 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 8: sick during a good portion of the campaign in nineteen sixteen, 254 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 8: and we know that he went on to lose to 255 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 8: John Kennedy, and. 256 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 2: They were seen as being a generation apart, which is 257 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 2: it's really amazing the way we look at these things, 258 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 2: at least in the moment. Lastly, Professor, is it wrong 259 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 2: first to assume that this is Biden versus Trump? 260 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 8: Well, the good news for Joe Biden, Unlike someone like 261 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 8: Jimmy Carter or George HW. Bush, who had to try 262 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 8: to fend off within their own parties. In the case 263 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 8: of bushwa aready want he had to fend off the 264 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 8: right side of Papuchan. In the case of Jimmy Carterick, 265 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 8: the challenge came from the left from Ted Kennedy and 266 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 8: neither of those challenges worked out, but they really took 267 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 8: a chunk out of the campaign of those two income 268 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 8: and presidents and they lost. So I don't think we're 269 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 8: going to see much of that. Although Robert Kennedy Junior 270 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 8: coming to the fore a little bit, well, maybe siphon 271 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 8: a few votes away from Joe Biden, but it doesn't 272 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 8: appear unless it's someone like DeSantis or Nikki Haley at 273 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 8: this point can overcome Trump. So I don't think it's 274 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 8: wrong for us to project that this could well be 275 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 8: in the ticket on both sides. 276 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 2: She's professor and director of Presidential Studies at the University 277 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 2: of Virginia's Miller Center. Barbara Perry, thank you so much 278 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 2: for joining us on this historic day. If you're into politics, 279 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 2: this is one of the big ones here and we 280 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 2: assemble our panel for a quick pass on this of course. 281 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. Rick, you 282 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 2: questioned the timing of this, is it too early? 283 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 9: You know, look, if he's going to go out and 284 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 9: actively campaign, I think it's a waste of in presidential 285 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,839 Speaker 9: time away from you know, looking presidential, which actually I 286 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 9: think has more appeal to voters than looking like a candidate. 287 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 9: His predecessor in the Democratic Party, Barack Obama announced relatively 288 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 9: really and then didn't hold a campaign event for almost 289 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 9: a year. So maybe that is the strategy he's employing. 290 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 10: It's one he's close to. 291 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 2: Is that the model? Then, Genie, like Jordan said, he 292 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 2: gets the reporter's office back. Now he can hang out 293 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 2: for a minute plan a campaign. 294 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 11: That's right, and he can also importantly raise money. We've 295 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 11: got fundraisers high level descending on the White House. We 296 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 11: understand on Friday he needs to raise a lot of money. 297 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 11: And I would also know unlike Barack Obama, he puts 298 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 11: Kamala Harris in this video apparently about eleven times, maybe 299 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 11: more so a big, big show up support for Harris. 300 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 2: We'll talk more about that. We're just dipping our toe 301 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 2: in the water with the panel here. We'll take the 302 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 2: deep dive next with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano on 303 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 2: this campaign launch day. So much for the soft launch. 304 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 2: It's real. I'm Joe Ma. This is Bloomberg. 305 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 306 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 307 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 308 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business app. 309 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 310 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 311 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 2: We're, of course all assuming that this is Joe Biden 312 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 2: versus Donald Trump, now that the President has made it official. Well, 313 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: the former president did so a couple of months ago here, 314 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 2: and he was quick to respond. 315 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 6: Now, of course we don't know this is the way 316 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 6: it's going. 317 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 2: To go, but I'd love to walk through the reaction here, 318 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 2: not only the Joe Biden video, but the reaction from 319 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Because they both speak volumes. Rick Davis and 320 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano or Bloomberg Politics contributors, they make our signature 321 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 2: panel here on sound On and Rick, I'll tell you 322 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 2: that the Joe Biden video for starters is very deliberately produced. 323 00:15:58,200 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 6: This is a. 324 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 2: Hollywood style production, though it's only a couple of minutes long. 325 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 2: As I mentioned, it starts with scenes from the Capitol 326 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 2: on January sixth, and he continues to talk about the 327 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 2: issues that he thinks will define his campaign, including preserving freedom. 328 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 3: But you know, around the country MAGA extremists are line 329 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 3: enough to take on those bedrock freedoms, cutting Social Security 330 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 3: that you've paid for your entire life, well, cutting taxes from. 331 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: The very social Security guards and dollar bills flying by. 332 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 2: This is a campaign against Maga Rick and we're not 333 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 2: sure exactly, at least officially, who the Republican nominee is 334 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: going to be. 335 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, I thought that that. 336 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 9: Aspect of it was a little curious. I mean, it 337 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 9: was a little darker than we're used to seeing from 338 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 9: Team Biden. You know, he was the sort of light 339 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 9: compared to the darkness of the Trump campaign in twenty twenty. 340 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 9: And I think he's sort of taken a page out 341 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 9: of the Trump campaign by saying, Hey, you know, we've 342 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 9: got real issues here, and you know, as president, I'm 343 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 9: trying to address those. But the idea of targeting MAGA itself. 344 00:16:58,360 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 9: You know, what is MAGA, right? 345 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 12: Is that Trump? 346 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 7: Is that? 347 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 10: You know, DeSantis? Is that anybody who gets the Republican nomination? 348 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 6: Great question. 349 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 9: You know, I think it's kind of one off, and 350 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 9: I'm not sure I would have introduced that is you know, 351 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 9: the announcement campaign, I mean, it really should have, in 352 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 9: my view, been about Biden much less about the Republicans. 353 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 9: He's got a case to be made. Fifty one percent 354 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 9: of his own party doesn't want him to run. You know, 355 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 9: maybe he's trying to get them all unified against MAGA, 356 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,959 Speaker 9: but I think he didn't even define what MAGA was. 357 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 2: Once he hit it dark, Brandon was trending on Twitter 358 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 2: at least the last time I looked here, Jeanie, was this, uh, 359 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 2: too dark of a vibe for you? Should there have 360 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 2: been a more optimistic tone? 361 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 13: You know? 362 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 11: My view is that in twenty twenty, this is the 363 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 11: same vibe we had. Let's not forget. His video in 364 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 11: twenty twenty was called the Battle for the Soul of America. 365 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 11: This is a continuation of that. So I don't see 366 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 11: any difference in that regard. He did not come out 367 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 11: in twenty twenty with a bright, cheery, optimistic message. He 368 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 11: said I Am going to stop them from stealing the 369 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 11: soul of America, and today he has said the fight continues. 370 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 11: And you know, I agree. This is heavy on freedom, democracy, rights, democracy, 371 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,439 Speaker 11: and danger. This is you know, I have beat Trump. 372 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 11: We need to keep him out of the White House. 373 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 11: And oh, by the way, if it's not him, I'll 374 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 11: catch my bets. Could be Marjorie Taylor Green, could be DeSantis. 375 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 11: Whoever it is. They the Republicans are, you know, off 376 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 11: their rockers. They are crazy. Look what they're going to 377 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 11: do from entitlements to tax cuts for the wealthy, guns 378 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 11: and abortion. You need me to stop them, and I'm here. 379 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 11: But I see that as a continuation of everything he 380 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 11: ran on in twenty twenty. So I don't see this 381 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 11: as a difference at all. This is Joe Biben quints 382 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 11: essential the only time, and that he's run and won 383 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 11: for presidency. He ran on the same message. 384 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: Oh there's dark Brandon. 385 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 2: The Donald Trump Reacts video is not remarkable from a 386 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 2: visual standpoint. It looks like any number of videos he's done. 387 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 2: There at mar A Lago. He's got flags behind him. 388 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 2: It's like a multi camera shoot, so they get him 389 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: on the profile shot as he's speaking. 390 00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: To no one. 391 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 2: It's kind of bizarre, but it was interesting to walk 392 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 2: through it, Rick, because you know, none of this is 393 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,959 Speaker 2: scripted by accident, and he took the swing at you know, 394 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 2: take the five worst presidents off the top, it'd be 395 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 2: still not as bad as Joe Biden. But then he 396 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:16,360 Speaker 2: hits number one issue is the economy and inflation. The 397 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 2: second one he digs into geopolitics. 398 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 4: Our military is suffering greatly. Biden has totally humiliated our 399 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:28,160 Speaker 4: nation on the world stage, starting with the Afghanistan disaster, 400 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 4: perhaps the most embarrassing event in the history. 401 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 7: Of our country. 402 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 4: We go to Ukraine meant so much to our enemies 403 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 4: when they watched that horrible retreat. Russia is teaming up 404 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 4: with China, Iran is days away from a nuclear bomb, 405 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 4: not even thinkable. Ukraine has been devastated by an invasion 406 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 4: that would never ever have happened. 407 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 2: There you go, if I was president, So he walked. 408 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 2: Then he does, by the way, mention World War three, 409 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 2: which as someone who could have that job again, seem 410 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:06,679 Speaker 2: just the definition of irresponsible. And he resolves with twenty twenty. 411 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 2: He's not dropping this one. 412 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 4: Listen, you know what happened in the last election. 413 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 6: They cheated and they rigged the election. 414 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 4: But I promise you this, when I stand on that 415 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 4: debate stage and compare our records, it will be radical 416 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 4: democrats worst nightmare, because there's never been a record as 417 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 4: bad as they have, and our country has never been 418 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 4: through so much. 419 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 2: So back to the retribution to our I guess here, Rick, 420 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 2: what do you make of this sort of construction here, 421 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 2: he didn't really spend a lot of time on social 422 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 2: issues at all. It was economy, geopolitics they cheated. 423 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 10: Yeah, this is straight out of survey research, right. 424 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 9: I mean, you know, the number one issue that Biden 425 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 9: has vulnerabilities, the most hesitations voters have about him as 426 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,719 Speaker 9: his management of the economy. His approval ratings are in 427 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 9: the thirties. You know, it's extremely bad to the level 428 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 9: of George W. Bush during the downfall of the economy 429 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 9: in two thousand and eight. So that's number one. You know, 430 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 9: he wants to be the global actor, So geopolitics fits 431 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 9: into his sort of you know, I would say campaign 432 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 9: strategy for himself. You know, all the peace and tranquility 433 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,679 Speaker 9: that occurred, he opens himself up to a lot of 434 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 9: criticism by the Biden camp because of the deals he cut, 435 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 9: for instance, with the Taliban in Afghanistan in advance of 436 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 9: Joe Biden's withdrawal. The two of them have, you know, 437 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 9: some burden on each other for that makes up And 438 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,160 Speaker 9: the reality is, as you pointed out, Joe, he can't 439 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 9: help himself. He's got to hit the grievance trail, and 440 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 9: to be honest, I mean, there's not a poll in 441 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 9: the world it says that's a good idea. So it's 442 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 9: the Donald Trump. 443 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,360 Speaker 10: We know, even though he has. 444 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 9: Some discipline in the first couple of minutes of that video, 445 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 9: you know, where he's talking about sort of poll tested, 446 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 9: good election kind of strategy, he reverts to the one 447 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,719 Speaker 9: thing that actually really keeps him from being able to 448 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 9: get new voters into his coalition. And if he continues that, 449 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 9: as has been said by many of his opponents in 450 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,639 Speaker 9: the Republican primary, he's going to consign the Republican Party 451 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 9: potentially to another loss. 452 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 2: So is it almost a deterioration of credibility? Is this 453 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 2: flows a genie from you know, he hit him with 454 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 2: the good stuff the economy at first, then debatable on 455 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 2: Afghanistan and some other issues. He claims the Ukraine War 456 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 2: and never would have happened, all that arguable, and then 457 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 2: he goes for the slam dunk at the end with 458 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 2: the you know, stop the steal stuff, the twenty twenty 459 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,120 Speaker 2: big lie or whatever you want to call it. How 460 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 2: do you get a single independent voter to jump on 461 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 2: board with that kind of a coda to your message. 462 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 11: Yeah, it's the coda that will kill him at this point. 463 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 11: I give him credit for starting with the economy, even 464 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 11: the geopolitics, but to Rick's point, he can't help himself 465 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 11: with the focus on twenty twenty. And you know, I 466 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 11: also would just say I also give him credit because 467 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 11: unlike Desantas, he's not focused on these social woke issues, 468 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 11: which another loser when come to independence and moderates. So 469 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 11: he's got the right political instincts for the first two, 470 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 11: but the third he just can't help himself. He's got 471 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,679 Speaker 11: to go there. But you know, this is what the 472 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 11: Biden team wants, this is what they expect. This is 473 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 11: why Biden begins his video with you know, anything in 474 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 11: the world he could begin with. He begins with January 475 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 11: sixth and the sort of greeny footage of an insurrection, 476 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 11: because what they're going to do is say, no matter 477 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 11: how much any moderate or independent may like some of 478 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 11: the things that Donald Trump did, the reality is this 479 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,720 Speaker 11: is a president who incited an insurrection at the Capitol 480 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 11: and who continues to say what everybody knows is not true, 481 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 11: that the election was stolen. He can't accept the loss 482 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 11: That's what they're going to keep coming back to. It's 483 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 11: that extremist message that Trump can't avoid. That's why they 484 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 11: want to run against against the Trump. And you know, 485 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 11: I think that the danger here for Biden, if I 486 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 11: see anything on the horizon is how does he run 487 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 11: if it's not Trump. They're trying to say they can 488 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 11: pull the same against DeSantis, but can he really because 489 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,959 Speaker 11: his entire message seems to be I'll save you from Trump. 490 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 11: No Trump. It's hard pressed to see how Biden can 491 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 11: get people to support him at this point, and that 492 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 11: is a challenge for him. 493 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 2: Well, it is, and that brings us back to where 494 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 2: we started this portion of the conversation here, Rick, if 495 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,439 Speaker 2: you're running against Maga, can you substitute Ron DeSantis for 496 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 2: Donald Trump and keep the same message. 497 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 10: I don't think so. 498 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 9: I don't think Ron DeSantis sees himself as a MAGA guy, 499 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 9: and I don't think he's going to use that brand. 500 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 9: He's not going to be wearing a red hat with 501 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 9: that on it, for sure, and so I think it 502 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 9: does miss the mark. And that's why I'm so surprised 503 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 9: that he's trying to brand the Mega theme in his 504 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 9: opening statement as a presidential candidate, because you know that 505 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 9: may all disappear, and so I think that he's a 506 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 9: little vulnerable on that. 507 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 10: I think he and the fact that he didn't. 508 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 9: Talk about the economy at all, didn't actually connect with 509 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 9: voters on that, didn't say he has a plan, I 510 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 9: think leaves him open to immense criticism and also vulnerability 511 00:24:59,040 --> 00:24:59,959 Speaker 9: with swing voters. 512 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 10: That's going to be their number one issue. It usually is, 513 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 10: and the. 514 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 9: Fact that they leave that completely out of his video 515 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 9: is shocking to me. 516 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,400 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie shan Zeo smart talk here from 517 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 2: our signature panel. 518 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 6: It's great stuff. 519 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 2: And remember this campaign is going to, at least in 520 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 2: the outset here be happening against the backdrop of this 521 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 2: debt ceiling debate, and we're going to get to that next. 522 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us 523 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 524 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 525 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 526 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 2: And so the pieces will be in place at least 527 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 2: we're told tonight for a potential vote as soon as 528 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 2: tomorrow on the debt limit proposal that Speaker McCarthy put 529 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 2: forth a few days back. Mark Zandi, who we're going 530 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 2: to talk to next hour, takes a swing at the 531 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 2: whole plan, suggesting that it will worsen unemployment and lower 532 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 2: GDP growth. Is that the cost of doing business? We 533 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: get an update on all of this from our friend 534 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 2: Emily Wilkins at Bloomberg Government of course, combing the halls 535 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 2: of Congress for news every day, and joins us. Now, Emily, 536 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 2: the debt limit bill gets a vote tomorrow or is 537 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 2: that still in flux right now? 538 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 12: That is still the plan for the debt limit bill 539 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 12: to get a vote tomorrow, and then it will face 540 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 12: another smaller challenge this afternoon when it will be going 541 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 12: through the Rules Committee. It's a little wonky, but basically 542 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:21,679 Speaker 12: the rules is the one that kind of puts the 543 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 12: tea in the ground and puts the golf ball on 544 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 12: the tee and then hands the club to Congress and says, okay, 545 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 12: take a swing. And so we're going to see this 546 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 12: package go through rules. We're going to see amendments. If 547 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 12: there are members with concerns, we're going to see them. 548 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 12: And I think this is kind of going to be 549 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 12: if there is many grievances to air. This airing of 550 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 12: grievances and concerns, and we know that some members have them. 551 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 12: We know that there are some from the Midwest who 552 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 12: are particularly concerned that a biofuel tax credit is going 553 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 12: to be cut. We have other members who are concerned 554 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 12: a bit about the spending levels in general, about exactly 555 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 12: how many hours one has to work to apply for 556 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 12: federal assistance for various programs. And his team has been 557 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 12: working all weekend to try and make sure that everyone 558 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 12: is on board. But at this point there are still 559 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,199 Speaker 12: a number of members who seem to be holdouts. 560 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 2: And he's kind of locking this down right. No amendments 561 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: is what we heard. Even as to your point, a 562 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,199 Speaker 2: number of lawmakers ask for changes or different things to 563 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 2: hang on the tree. Here, Speaker McCarthy says, this is 564 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 2: the final version. How does that play out in the 565 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 2: rules debate? 566 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 12: So, I mean people can always offer amendments and then 567 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 12: just not have them accepted. I mean McCarthy still has 568 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 12: a number of allies on the Rules Committee. Of course, 569 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 12: he also has some Freedom Caucus members, So we'll see 570 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 12: exactly how that winds up playing out. But McCarthy himself 571 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 12: has said that he's not making any additional changes to 572 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,120 Speaker 12: the text. And I was talking with one lawmaker today 573 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 12: who was like, look, he's like, I am hoping that 574 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 12: in the final thing that we pass several things are different. 575 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 12: He's like, but what we passed tomorrow is not the 576 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 12: final thing. What we passed tomorrow is simply to get 577 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 12: Biden to the negotiating table so we can actually put 578 00:27:56,200 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 12: together a final plan. Very few Republicans believe that what 579 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,840 Speaker 12: they passed tomorrow is actually going to be what winds 580 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,640 Speaker 12: up raising the debt limit. This is simply their opening bed. 581 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 2: You don't have any sense of how close he is 582 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 2: to two eighteen at this point, right We're going to 583 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 2: learn this when it goes to the floor. 584 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 12: We do know that he has a lot of members 585 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 12: who are on board, but there are still members like 586 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 12: Matt Gates came out last night and said he would't 587 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 12: support the bill. There are a number of other hardline conservatives, 588 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 12: and you have a number of more moderate members. And 589 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 12: Nancy Mace has continually raised concerns with this bill. If her, 590 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 12: Brian Fitzpatrick have some concerns with this bill, and so 591 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,639 Speaker 12: really it's kind of a both sides thing where McCarthy 592 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 12: can't just sort of appease one group without angering another, 593 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 12: and that I think is why he's taken this position 594 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 12: of no changes and why he's really trying to emphasize 595 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 12: that the proposal they're putting forward it's not meant for 596 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 12: final passage. It is simply meant to put pressure on 597 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 12: the White House to get bied and back to the 598 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 12: negotiating table. 599 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 2: Real time update from Emily Wilkins. Thank you, Emily, Bloomberg, 600 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 2: Congress reporter with us here Bloomberg Government to be exact 601 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 2: as we reassemble the panel for their take on things 602 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 2: here on this night before Genie Shanzano and Rick Day 603 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 2: Savis or whether's Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, this is going 604 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 2: to happen tomorrow. It looks like is this exactly the 605 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 2: moment that Joe Biden has been hoping for that Kevin 606 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 2: McCarthy dares bring the bill to the floor and it fails. 607 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 11: Well yeah, I mean if this did fail, and I 608 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 11: still think he gets to the two eighteen, this would 609 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 11: be a tremendous loss. I mean, you can't underscore because 610 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 11: if he can't get this Republican wish list through his house. 611 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 11: What can he do? I mean, this would be a 612 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 11: massive fail. So it's you know, for his sake, it's 613 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 11: got to get through. But you know, absolutely for Biden, 614 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 11: if he couldn't do it, you know, it's almost game 615 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 11: over to that extent. But you know, the irony of 616 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 11: this entire thing is you and Emily were just discussing. 617 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 11: He's criticizing Biden for no negotiation, and yet you talk 618 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 11: to these Republicans, He's saying, take it or leave it. 619 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 11: There is no negotiating on this so irony of all ironies. 620 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 11: He's pulling a Biden at this point, and people like 621 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 11: Matt Gaates calling his bluff. He just can't have more 622 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 11: than four of them. 623 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,479 Speaker 2: He's pulling a Biden, says Rick. I know that you 624 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 2: see this passing. What happens to the Matt Gateses of 625 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 2: the world, You know what what convinces them in the end, 626 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 2: is this an eye to eye talk tonight with the Speaker. 627 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 10: No, I mean, maybe he just takes a walk. 628 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 9: You know, the Speaker can burn you know, three or 629 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 9: four votes and not have a problem. And and that 630 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 9: was certainly Matt Gatz's you know, reputation during the Speakership. 631 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 9: You know, it took him forever fifteenth vote. 632 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 10: To get you know, on board. 633 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 9: So there are going to be a few holdouts that 634 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 9: that are probably going to take a walk on this vote. 635 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 10: But it shouldn't. 636 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 9: Shouldn't actually upset the apple cart when it comes to 637 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 9: getting something passed. And I think the Speaker's done a 638 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 9: very good job is saying, look, it's not about amending this, 639 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 9: it's not about perfecting this. 640 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 10: It's not about this. 641 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 9: It's about giving me the leverage that I can use 642 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 9: to get the White House to the table who have 643 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,479 Speaker 9: been resistant on doing any kind of deals cutting, you know, 644 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 9: and this, this starts that process. So it's you have 645 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 9: to basically put the blinders on, go down, cast your ballot, 646 00:30:58,280 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 9: and let. 647 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 10: The Speaker then start the process in earnest. 648 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 2: In the process, the real one will then get underway. 649 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 2: I suspect, Genie, if this passes, assuming it does tomorrow, 650 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 2: how long do we see a meeting with Joe Biden. 651 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 11: Well, they don't have a lot of time. And I think, 652 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 11: you know, if this passes, and you know, they need 653 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 11: to get together, and again Democrats are pushing Joe Biden. 654 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 11: We cannot wait. I mean, you know, party differences aside, 655 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 11: we are playing with the future of this country. So 656 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 11: I think you're going to see some push from Democrats 657 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,959 Speaker 11: and also Joe, since I know it's one of your 658 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 11: favorite topics. George Santos filing an amendment to increase required 659 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 11: work hours and he's from a purple district, it makes 660 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 11: literally no sense. 661 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 8: I think he's lost his mind. 662 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 11: But it wouldn't be the first time. 663 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 2: You are right about that. Filed an amendment with the 664 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 2: Rules Committee to increase the number of required work hours 665 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 2: to qualify, you know, for food stamps for Medicaid. He 666 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 2: wants that to go from twenty to thirty. So is 667 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 2: George Santos making waves here, Rick, or just trying to 668 00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 2: get us to talk about No. 669 00:31:58,360 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 9: I think he's just trying to get us to talk 670 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 9: about it. Of course, we took debate today, So yeah, 671 00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 9: he's got his he's got his way. But you know, 672 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 9: I remind everybody, you know, when when Joe Biden was 673 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 9: Vice president in twenty eleven, he negotiated a deal on 674 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 9: the debt ceiling that included you know, uh uh spending cuts, 675 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 9: and so all he's got to do is reprise his 676 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 9: role as speaker or as a vice president to get 677 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 9: a deal done here and to say that he can't 678 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 9: negotiate any other terms but a clean debt ceiling is 679 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 9: really disingenuous. 680 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 2: We don't know when the X date is going to fall, 681 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 2: but as Jack Fitzpatrick said the other night on Balance 682 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 2: of Power, by the time they name the X date, 683 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 2: it's already too late. And I hope that's not true, 684 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 2: because we could get it this week. 685 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 1: Genie. 686 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 2: The House will be out until May ninth after this week. 687 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 2: That means when they come back they might have a 688 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 2: month or so to figure this whole thing out. Is 689 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 2: that is that realistic? 690 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,479 Speaker 11: I say no, I mean hopefully it is. It seems 691 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 11: very very short because of course a month in congressional 692 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 11: terms is you know, but a like ten days, so 693 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 11: it is a very short window. And you know, just 694 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 11: to go back to Joe Biden no economy. In this 695 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 11: rollout video, what we're also hearing is they want to 696 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 11: use McCarthy as a foil during the spring and his 697 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 11: call for budget cuts, and so they are gonna, I think, 698 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 11: drag this out for electoral purposes as much as they 699 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 11: can to pin these Republicans down on exactly what they 700 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 11: are going to cut to make that as public as 701 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 11: possible because he's going to say they're extremists. So watch 702 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 11: for this to enter big time into Joe Biden's re election. 703 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 2: And you know, push here sounds to me like they 704 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 2: kick the can. There's a continuing resolution coming here and 705 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 2: all the parties meet sometime in September. We'll see Rick Davis, 706 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,240 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzino, many thanks, as ever the smartest panel in 707 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,680 Speaker 2: the business. Here, of course, on Bloomberg, I'm Joe, Matthew 708 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,720 Speaker 2: and Washington. Stay right where you are. This is Bloomberg. 709 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. 710 00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern Bloomberg Radio, 711 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: the tune in apt, Bloomberg dot Com, and the. 712 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Business app. 713 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 714 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 715 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 2: You've probably heard by now that Harry Belafonte has died. 716 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 2: Most people, of course, know him as a pop singer, 717 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:27,840 Speaker 2: calypso singer, and indeed he is musician a star performer, 718 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,439 Speaker 2: but he identified himself first as a political activist who 719 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:35,880 Speaker 2: used music to raise awareness talk issues reflect the social 720 00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 2: consciousness of the time. He performed protest music and talked 721 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 2: on PBS a couple of years ago about being inspired 722 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 2: as a young man living in Harlem in the late 723 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 2: nineteen thirty it. 724 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 14: Was nothing to walk down the street in any Dan 725 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,879 Speaker 14: Cy Robesnow or Joe Lewis or Doctor de Bois in Harlem, 726 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,439 Speaker 14: so our role models. 727 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 7: Were always there. 728 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,399 Speaker 14: And by the time I came up on the idea 729 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 14: of being an artist, I brought with me this mission 730 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,400 Speaker 14: of activists. And what attracted me to the arts was 731 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,760 Speaker 14: the fact that I saw theater as a social force, 732 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 14: as a political force. 733 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 2: Harry Belafonte marsh with Martin Luther King Junior. He lobbied 734 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,200 Speaker 2: for the release of Nelson Mandela and even recorded an advertisement, 735 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 2: a TV ad for a young senator from Massachusetts running 736 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:18,800 Speaker 2: for president in nineteen sixty. 737 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 15: I'm seeing here Senator Jack Kennedy as a Negro and 738 00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 15: as an American. I have many questions, and I'm sure 739 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:31,719 Speaker 15: everyone does, about civil rights, about foreign policy, about the 740 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,240 Speaker 15: economy of the country, and about things that will happen. 741 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 16: And I want to make it very clear, Harry, that 742 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,600 Speaker 16: on this question of equality of opportunity for all Americans, 743 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 16: whether it's in the field of civil rights, that are 744 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 16: minimum wages, that are housing at are working conditions, jobs. 745 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 16: I stamped for these things. Democratic Party under Franklin Roosevelt stood. 746 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 15: For I'm voting for this senator, how about you? 747 00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 6: How about you? 748 00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,280 Speaker 2: A poignant message as the modern civil rights move movement 749 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:04,200 Speaker 2: was gaining momentum, and as a forty three year old 750 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,320 Speaker 2: John Kennedy was trying to become the youngest man ever 751 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 2: elected president. 752 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:11,120 Speaker 7: And so we. 753 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 2: Remember Harry Belafonte today he was ninety six. Stay with 754 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 2: us on sound On the Fastest Show and Politics continues. Next, 755 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 2: Shake Shake, Shake, Cinara, shake your body line. We're bringing 756 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,400 Speaker 2: Kaylee lives here in Washington and conversations with Mark Zandi 757 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 2: of Moody's Analytics and former ambassador Daniel Freese. You know, 758 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,759 Speaker 2: we're just getting started here on the Fastest Show in Politics. 759 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 2: Hour two of Sound On It starts right now. 760 00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,359 Speaker 6: My guy's name is Sonora. 761 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:44,880 Speaker 15: I tell you friends, I. 762 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,799 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 763 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 764 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,200 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 765 00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 766 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 2: It's an important state visit at the White House this 767 00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 2: week and one that we have not talked about enough. 768 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 2: I would dare say the media has not covered enough 769 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 2: as the President of South Korea lands in Washington for 770 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 2: high stakes talks with President Biden. I'm Joe Matthew in 771 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,040 Speaker 2: Washington along with Kaylee lines. This is an incredibly important 772 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 2: alliance when you consider the region, Kaili, not just the peninsula. 773 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 2: And that's enough right there with North Korea, but of 774 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 2: course our relationship with China, the tensions in the South 775 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,160 Speaker 2: China Sea, and I could keep going here that the 776 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 2: next forty eight hours are going to be awfully important 777 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,040 Speaker 2: for these two countries to talk. 778 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:28,600 Speaker 8: Yeah. 779 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,359 Speaker 17: Absolutely, I mean we talk so much about the relationship 780 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:35,279 Speaker 17: between the US and its western allies, but in this theater, 781 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,360 Speaker 17: in particular the South China see the issue around Taiwan. 782 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,080 Speaker 17: It is also about the other allies in Asia that 783 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,960 Speaker 17: can serve as a counterbalance against China, which as we know, 784 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:49,360 Speaker 17: has growing tension with the US, not just over the 785 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 17: issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea, but also 786 00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 17: in terms of the war in Ukraine. And it's perceived 787 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,920 Speaker 17: alignment with Russia at the very least, not support for Ukraine. 788 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 7: Right. 789 00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,640 Speaker 2: Well, it's a great opportunity to talk with Ambassador Daniel Freed, 790 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,120 Speaker 2: who we haven't had on the program in a while. 791 00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 2: We're going to cover a number of issues over the 792 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 2: course of this conversation, beginning with this one, because this 793 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:14,280 Speaker 2: visit takes place against the backdrop of the Pentagon Documents League. 794 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,000 Speaker 2: An ambassador, it's great to have you back, Daniel Freed 795 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,880 Speaker 2: with US live now on Bloomberg. I wonder, just to 796 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,960 Speaker 2: start off, how much cleaning up the Biden administration has 797 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,399 Speaker 2: to do here. Knowing that there was outrage in South 798 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,879 Speaker 2: Korea following the leak of these documents, suggesting the US 799 00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,919 Speaker 2: listened in on conversations on what was happening inside South 800 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:38,960 Speaker 2: Korea's presidential office, what's the president got to say today? 801 00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:44,879 Speaker 13: This isn't the first embarrassing league of classified documents from 802 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,839 Speaker 13: the US, and I hate to say it, but it 803 00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:53,960 Speaker 13: may not be the last. These things are embarrassing. I 804 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 13: don't doubt that the South Koreans were irritated, but the 805 00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 13: strength of the US of Korea relationship will help us 806 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,799 Speaker 13: get past this. There is no question In my mind, 807 00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,400 Speaker 13: we will get past this because it's in the interests 808 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 13: of both countries to work together. We have a lot 809 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,520 Speaker 13: in common. So I think that this week's talks will 810 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:15,799 Speaker 13: be good and productive well, and. 811 00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 17: It raises the question as to what they are working 812 00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:22,160 Speaker 17: together for and what they are working together against. Is 813 00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,760 Speaker 17: China the most important topic of conversation for these two countries. 814 00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:33,520 Speaker 13: Well, of course North Korea's dictatorial regime is a threat 815 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,960 Speaker 13: both to the Peninsula and East Asia generally, and so 816 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 13: that will have to come up, and it should come up. 817 00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:44,240 Speaker 13: China is a larger issue. In a better world, China 818 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,360 Speaker 13: would be contributing to let's say, this be part of 819 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,759 Speaker 13: the solution of the problem of North Korea. But now 820 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:57,040 Speaker 13: China is creating its own problems. Someone said earlier. I 821 00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,480 Speaker 13: think you said earlier that the United States has allies 822 00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,880 Speaker 13: not just in Europe, as strong allies in Asia, and 823 00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:07,400 Speaker 13: that is certainly correct. Japan, South Korea are close to 824 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:12,600 Speaker 13: the United States and we need them and other friends 825 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:18,400 Speaker 13: in the East like Australia to deal with the rising 826 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,920 Speaker 13: challenge of China. It's not the same as the challenge 827 00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:24,920 Speaker 13: of Russia. It's not as acute. It's not as violent 828 00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,160 Speaker 13: at the moment, and I hope it never gets there, 829 00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,040 Speaker 13: but that will be the challenge of dealing with China, 830 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:37,439 Speaker 13: will be the backdrop, and that will be the more 831 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:41,000 Speaker 13: profound area of US South Korea consultations. 832 00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 2: I suspect, But that said, Ambassador, we talk so much 833 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,160 Speaker 2: about China, and this White House talks so much about China. 834 00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 2: Does that embolden Kim Jong un in North Korea? And 835 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 2: to what extent? Is he more dangerous now than he 836 00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:57,760 Speaker 2: was when Joe Biden became president. 837 00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:03,799 Speaker 13: He's been to risks for years. I don't think we 838 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 13: should take the temperature constantly and fret and wring our 839 00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,520 Speaker 13: hands about it heat about him. He is dangerous, he 840 00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:15,719 Speaker 13: will continue to be dangerous, and the message we need 841 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:20,400 Speaker 13: to send is that he is potentially putting himself in 842 00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:24,920 Speaker 13: an impossible situation if he goes too far, and I 843 00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:28,160 Speaker 13: think on some level they may know it. I think 844 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 13: the North Koreans are going to continue their provocations. They 845 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:36,239 Speaker 13: are going to continue their ballistic missile and nuclear programs, 846 00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:38,960 Speaker 13: but I don't think that they are going to actually 847 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,640 Speaker 13: launch an all out of assault on the South. I 848 00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,520 Speaker 13: don't think they would make the mistake of thinking that 849 00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:48,200 Speaker 13: the United States would be passive and we wouldn't be so. 850 00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:56,439 Speaker 13: I think there's their preservation instinct may keep them from 851 00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:00,719 Speaker 13: doing things that are even more dangerous, at least I 852 00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:02,399 Speaker 13: hope so well. 853 00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:06,000 Speaker 17: On the subject of nuclear power, we also were hearing 854 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,000 Speaker 17: earlier today, according to state news in Russia, that dmitriy Medvedev, 855 00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,080 Speaker 17: the former Russian president, which it should be known as 856 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,640 Speaker 17: pretty much known for making threatening comments against the West, 857 00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,960 Speaker 17: the US and it's allies, was speaking to a group 858 00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:25,160 Speaker 17: of a Kremlin youth group earlier talking about the fact 859 00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:29,720 Speaker 17: that nuclear war risk is rising. Do you actually perceive 860 00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,800 Speaker 17: that Are we getting closer with each passing day to 861 00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:33,560 Speaker 17: nuclear wars? 862 00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:33,640 Speaker 7: No? 863 00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,600 Speaker 13: I don't think so. MAGGTIV says a lot of things. 864 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:43,200 Speaker 13: He specializes in inflammatory, hysterical rhetoric. I wouldn't take him seriously. 865 00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,480 Speaker 13: It's amazing that the United States huns thought he was 866 00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:50,319 Speaker 13: a modern, more liberal leader of Russia. But that was then, 867 00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:55,160 Speaker 13: and we've learned better. I think the Biden administration has 868 00:42:55,320 --> 00:43:02,160 Speaker 13: handled Russia's nuclear saber rattling in a a capable manner. 869 00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,799 Speaker 13: I think the Biden administration sen sent messages to Russia 870 00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:12,560 Speaker 13: to knock it off basically messages of that conveyed. If 871 00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,799 Speaker 13: you actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there will be 872 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,319 Speaker 13: there will be serious retaliation from the United States. And 873 00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,600 Speaker 13: my guess I don't know, but my guess is that 874 00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:27,800 Speaker 13: we conveyed the possibility of retaliation which is strong enough 875 00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:32,120 Speaker 13: to set the Russians back and not so strong that 876 00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,600 Speaker 13: we could never do it. I think the Biden people 877 00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 13: handled this well. I think the Russians understand that this 878 00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,960 Speaker 13: is not going to work. It's not going to intimidate 879 00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:45,640 Speaker 13: the United States. So Russian state media it's propaganda, Midvieda. 880 00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:50,280 Speaker 13: They talk about nuclear attacks on London, on Paris, on Washington, 881 00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:57,720 Speaker 13: it's talk. It's talk. I think they know the Russians 882 00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,200 Speaker 13: have nuclear weapons, and so do we, so to the British, 883 00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:06,359 Speaker 13: so to the French and ours WARP. I don't think 884 00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,880 Speaker 13: the danger of nuclear war is growing. I think that 885 00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 13: the Russians are rational and that they have a good 886 00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,040 Speaker 13: appreciation of American. 887 00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:18,680 Speaker 2: Results Ambassador Freed. Bloomberg is reporting that Oloff Schultz has 888 00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:23,040 Speaker 2: invited the Chinese premiere for talks in Berlin next month, 889 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,600 Speaker 2: in the latest bid here by Germany's chancellor to ease 890 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 2: tensions between Europe and Beijing. I wonder if you see 891 00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,560 Speaker 2: this now as the two power centers in Europe, Germany 892 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:38,120 Speaker 2: and France following the Macron visit convinced that somehow China 893 00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,200 Speaker 2: can be a conduit for peace in Ukraine. 894 00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,920 Speaker 13: It's interesting to me that a lot of German foreign 895 00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:52,760 Speaker 13: policy leaders, including their foreign minister, were critical of Macron's 896 00:44:53,560 --> 00:45:01,400 Speaker 13: unfortunate interview and suggested a stronger position. I expect the 897 00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,720 Speaker 13: Germans will try to put the invitation to the Chinese 898 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:09,319 Speaker 13: premiere into perspective. I don't expect there will be a 899 00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:14,840 Speaker 13: split between the US and Europe on China policy. In fact, 900 00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:20,080 Speaker 13: if you discount the rather extravagant rhetoric of President Macron, 901 00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,319 Speaker 13: there is a lot of commonality between the US and 902 00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,239 Speaker 13: Europe on how to deal with China. We both know 903 00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,440 Speaker 13: that we can't completely cut off trade relations with China. 904 00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,080 Speaker 13: We can't try to freeze them out of the world 905 00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,440 Speaker 13: economy the way we're trying to freeze out the Russians. 906 00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:39,400 Speaker 13: But we do need to lower our risk profile with 907 00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:42,880 Speaker 13: respect to China. We need, but the European phrase is 908 00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,480 Speaker 13: de risking, by which they mean lowering the areas of 909 00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:51,880 Speaker 13: our vulnerability to China. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a 910 00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:56,799 Speaker 13: speech late last week made that point. We're actually, if 911 00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,840 Speaker 13: you get by past the rhetoric and some of the worries, 912 00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:05,000 Speaker 13: I think we in Europe are pretty close on China. 913 00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:09,359 Speaker 13: And this is essential if we're going to deal with 914 00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,080 Speaker 13: the challenge that China represents. We've got to work with Europe, 915 00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,000 Speaker 13: We've got to work with the G seven, and if 916 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:18,840 Speaker 13: we do have a common position, we've got the edge. 917 00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 13: We just have to remember that well. 918 00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,239 Speaker 17: And of course that is kind of a longer term 919 00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,640 Speaker 17: story that the US has to navigate the world with 920 00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,160 Speaker 17: China in it. Whether or not that is a decoupled world, 921 00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,520 Speaker 17: if you will, or a less globalized one in the 922 00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,120 Speaker 17: longer term, I guess remains to be seen. In the 923 00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:38,720 Speaker 17: nearer term, though, and specifically with the role of China 924 00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,800 Speaker 17: and how it plays into the ongoing war in Ukraine. 925 00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,920 Speaker 17: I understand that just earlier today you were having lunch 926 00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:50,520 Speaker 17: with the mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko. What is the 927 00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,959 Speaker 17: tone of those conversations. Is it seen that in order 928 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,640 Speaker 17: for Ukraine to win this war, China is going to 929 00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:57,960 Speaker 17: have to play some kind of. 930 00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:03,840 Speaker 13: Role well, Mayor Klitchko had two messages. One was the 931 00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:07,920 Speaker 13: Ukrainian people are determined to defend themselves and their country 932 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,680 Speaker 13: and they will succeed. And the other message was after 933 00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:14,600 Speaker 13: the war, Ukrainians are going to build a democratic rule 934 00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:18,959 Speaker 13: of law country or strengthen their democracy in a way 935 00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:23,880 Speaker 13: that is commensurate with the sacrifice of the Ukrainian people. 936 00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:27,000 Speaker 13: Those are my words, not his, but that was his message. 937 00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:31,759 Speaker 13: It was an inspiring one. With respect to China, they 938 00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:34,720 Speaker 13: are not playing a terribly helpful role. They're not all 939 00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,360 Speaker 13: in on the side of the Russians. They are reserved, 940 00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:41,800 Speaker 13: but they're certainly not acting as they force to settle 941 00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:47,160 Speaker 13: the war on anything alike acceptable terms to anybody. It 942 00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,000 Speaker 13: would be great if they were, but they show no 943 00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:56,680 Speaker 13: signs of doing so. So that's unfortunate. But successful successful 944 00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:00,680 Speaker 13: support for Ukraine and Ukraine's victory in this war, that is, 945 00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:03,880 Speaker 13: if they managed to defend themselves from the Russian invasion, 946 00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:09,680 Speaker 13: may cause the Chinese to reassess whatever assumptions they may 947 00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:14,640 Speaker 13: have had about an easy military conquest of Taiwan. The 948 00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:19,640 Speaker 13: West's response to Russian's invasion of Ukraine was stronger than 949 00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:23,640 Speaker 13: the Kremlin expected. More sustained than the Kremlin expected. It 950 00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,560 Speaker 13: was not weak. We didn't dither, we didn't wring our hands. 951 00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:31,600 Speaker 13: We actually backed Ukraine with weapons and economic support the 952 00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:37,239 Speaker 13: US and the European our European friends and allies. That 953 00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,960 Speaker 13: shows that the West and the democratic world, the free world, 954 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:44,080 Speaker 13: as we used to say, is not as weak as 955 00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:48,880 Speaker 13: China may suppose. That is an important message. So succeed, 956 00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:52,680 Speaker 13: helping the Ukrainian succeed is important for peace in Europe. 957 00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,240 Speaker 13: It's important also for stability in Asia. 958 00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:00,080 Speaker 2: Ambassador, at your lunch with Mayor Klitschko, did he bring 959 00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,160 Speaker 2: up fighter jets? You and I have been talking about 960 00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,279 Speaker 2: this request for the better part of a year and 961 00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:05,080 Speaker 2: they don't have him yet. 962 00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:11,319 Speaker 13: Well, he was, He was thanking, He was grateful to 963 00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,880 Speaker 13: the United States for all of the help to Ukraine. 964 00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,800 Speaker 13: He was not complaining, he was not whining. He said, 965 00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:22,120 Speaker 13: send weapons, But he wasn't there with a shopping list. Yeah, 966 00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:27,440 Speaker 13: he had broader messages of Ukraine's determination, the resilience of 967 00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,399 Speaker 13: the people of Keys, the ones who elected him, and 968 00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:36,360 Speaker 13: the need to build strengthened Ukraine's democracy, as you know, 969 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:37,359 Speaker 13: when the war is over. 970 00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,719 Speaker 17: Well, on the subject of the war, is over. There 971 00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:45,000 Speaker 17: is a question of when that will happen. The Prime 972 00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:49,520 Speaker 17: Minister of Poland, where you served as ambassador to earlier today, 973 00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,040 Speaker 17: was saying that Russia and its public opinion are patient. 974 00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,759 Speaker 17: It could withstand various election and democratic cycles. It is 975 00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:59,480 Speaker 17: a huge risk we are facing today. What time horizon 976 00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,000 Speaker 17: realistic are we talking about, Ambassador. 977 00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,120 Speaker 13: Well, the polls have a track record of being right 978 00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:09,040 Speaker 13: about Russia, so I would take what their leaders say seriously. 979 00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:17,080 Speaker 13: Much depends on the battlefield, and it is possible that 980 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:25,240 Speaker 13: the Ukrainian military will succeed, at least partly. It's counteroffensive 981 00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,840 Speaker 13: that many people expect to take a place later this 982 00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:34,160 Speaker 13: spring of the summer, and if so, if it succeeds, 983 00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:39,040 Speaker 13: they may be in a better position, and the Russians may, 984 00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:43,200 Speaker 13: even though they don't seem serious about negotiations now, they 985 00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,520 Speaker 13: may have to consider them, especially if the Ukrainians do well. 986 00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:50,640 Speaker 13: Now that's not guaranteed. We don't know. The battlefield is 987 00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:56,160 Speaker 13: that can be tricky place. Anything can happen, So I 988 00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,719 Speaker 13: suspect we will have greater clarity about the course of 989 00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:05,360 Speaker 13: the world later this year. The Russians stay, They're determined 990 00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,160 Speaker 13: to fight as long as necessary. 991 00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:09,719 Speaker 18: Well, we'll see, we'll see. 992 00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:13,720 Speaker 2: Ambassador Daniel freed Wiser, family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, 993 00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:18,000 Speaker 2: former Ambassador to Poland, former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe. 994 00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,759 Speaker 2: We thank you, as always for the insights. Ambassador. This 995 00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:25,480 Speaker 2: is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. 996 00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,920 Speaker 2: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern. 997 00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:32,200 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 998 00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:33,520 Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business App. 999 00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,520 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 1000 00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:41,000 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 1001 00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,400 Speaker 2: Looks like the debt limit proposal. We'll get a vote tomorrow, 1002 00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:48,239 Speaker 2: at least that's the hope of Speaker McCarthy. The legislation's 1003 00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,440 Speaker 2: going to Rules Committee tonight. Be on the Florid tomorrow. 1004 00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:53,000 Speaker 2: And of course it's anyone's guest, really, Kayley, if this 1005 00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,479 Speaker 2: gets two hundred and eighteen votes, I'm Joe Matthew along 1006 00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:56,759 Speaker 2: with Kaylee Lines, welcome. 1007 00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:56,960 Speaker 6: To sound On. 1008 00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:59,200 Speaker 2: I'm glad you're with us today Bloomberg Radio. 1009 00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:00,920 Speaker 6: But then what if it did pass? 1010 00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,040 Speaker 2: What would be the impact And Moody's Analytics, and by 1011 00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,680 Speaker 2: that I mean our friend Mark Zandy, the chief economist 1012 00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,440 Speaker 2: over there, actually came up with an answer. 1013 00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:08,919 Speaker 7: Yeah. 1014 00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,240 Speaker 17: And the answer maybe isn't one that the House Speaker 1015 00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:14,799 Speaker 17: would like to hear because according to Moody's the limit 1016 00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:19,680 Speaker 17: save growth, that could have some pretty down beaten near 1017 00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,840 Speaker 17: term economic growth implications if it were to be passed 1018 00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:26,239 Speaker 17: as it stands now. This is assuming that the bill 1019 00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:29,560 Speaker 17: in question becomes law, which we know isn't necessarily the intention. 1020 00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,879 Speaker 17: This is intended to be kind of an opening move 1021 00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,799 Speaker 17: in what McCarthy hopes will be negotiations with the way 1022 00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:37,360 Speaker 17: it happened and. 1023 00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:39,440 Speaker 2: Form a final product. So it's worth looking at what's 1024 00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:39,799 Speaker 2: in here. 1025 00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:41,719 Speaker 17: Yeah, So let's do that now and dig into it 1026 00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:44,520 Speaker 17: more with Mark Zandy himself again, he is chief economist 1027 00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:46,440 Speaker 17: over at Moody's Analytics. 1028 00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:46,680 Speaker 12: Mark. 1029 00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,040 Speaker 17: Great to have you back on Bloomberg. 1030 00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:50,319 Speaker 18: Thank you, Kayley, it's good to be with you. 1031 00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:53,959 Speaker 17: So, as I said, I was really struck by this research. Note, 1032 00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:57,560 Speaker 17: your essential thesis is that McCarthy's bill could bring a 1033 00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:01,840 Speaker 17: real hit to economic growth. Say that GDP at the 1034 00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:04,800 Speaker 17: end of twenty twenty four would be zero point sixty 1035 00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:08,560 Speaker 17: five percentage points lower than in a clean debt limit scenario, 1036 00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:12,280 Speaker 17: and unemployment would be higher. Walk us through how you got. 1037 00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:18,200 Speaker 18: There, Sure, it's pretty straightforward. The Speaker's plan calls for 1038 00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:24,080 Speaker 18: significant cuts in discretionary government spending federal government spending to 1039 00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,960 Speaker 18: the tune of about one hundred and twenty billion dollars 1040 00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:31,080 Speaker 18: between last year and the next fiscal year. That's about 1041 00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:34,880 Speaker 18: a half a percent of GDP. And then, of course, 1042 00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:36,680 Speaker 18: when you cut those kinds of programs there are a 1043 00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:41,279 Speaker 18: lot of essential services and government income support programs, you 1044 00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:43,600 Speaker 18: get these so called multipliers. So these are the kind 1045 00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:47,560 Speaker 18: of knock on effects of the loss of those of 1046 00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:51,000 Speaker 18: that spending, and so the overall impact, at least in 1047 00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:54,759 Speaker 18: the first year after the passage of the legislation would 1048 00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,520 Speaker 18: shave six seven ten percent off of GDP. So that's 1049 00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,360 Speaker 18: in a nutshell how you get. 1050 00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:03,919 Speaker 17: There, even in the absence of this bill actually becoming law, 1051 00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,839 Speaker 17: which again is still a huge question mark. What do 1052 00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,680 Speaker 17: you think the likelihood of a recession is at this point? 1053 00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:10,600 Speaker 17: Is it inevitable? 1054 00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,680 Speaker 18: No, it's not inevitable, but it's high obviously, I mean 1055 00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:16,239 Speaker 18: very uncomfortably high. I mean we're in a world of 1056 00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,319 Speaker 18: high inflation, and the reserve that has been pushing up 1057 00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,600 Speaker 18: rates very aggressively to try to call that inflation. And 1058 00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,280 Speaker 18: you know, you go back historically and look at previous 1059 00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:27,040 Speaker 18: periods of high inflation, high interest rates, and more often 1060 00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:30,640 Speaker 18: than non end in recession. So I think recession risks 1061 00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,440 Speaker 18: are very very high. I do think we've got a 1062 00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:35,359 Speaker 18: fighting chance to make our way through. I just think 1063 00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,640 Speaker 18: fundamentally the economy is a pretty good spot. You know, 1064 00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,799 Speaker 18: the fundamentals are pretty good. I mean, I think we 1065 00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:42,320 Speaker 18: got nailed by the pandemic in the Russian War in Ukraine, 1066 00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,520 Speaker 18: and you know, we're still trying to kind of navigate 1067 00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:46,840 Speaker 18: around the ill effects of all of that. But but 1068 00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,200 Speaker 18: the fundamentals are good, and so economy is showing a 1069 00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:51,480 Speaker 18: fair amount of resilience in the base of some pretty 1070 00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:55,360 Speaker 18: significant blows, of course, the most recent being the banking courses. 1071 00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:57,719 Speaker 18: So you know, I think we have a fighting chance, 1072 00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:02,160 Speaker 18: but only if policy makers will get it roughly right. 1073 00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:04,360 Speaker 18: And what that means is fed's got to be pretty 1074 00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:09,319 Speaker 18: close to ending it's rate hikes, hopefully sooner later, and 1075 00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:12,960 Speaker 18: obviously most importantly lawmakers, Congress and administration. You have to 1076 00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:17,080 Speaker 18: get it together and passive piece of legislation, increasing the 1077 00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:19,960 Speaker 18: dea liment and end this drama that's starting to develop. 1078 00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:23,239 Speaker 2: You mentioned the FED a couple of times. Mark is 1079 00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:26,839 Speaker 2: Speaker McCarthy essentially proposing to do the Fed's job for it. 1080 00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:29,120 Speaker 2: He seems like he might be given j Powell a 1081 00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:32,719 Speaker 2: break here. If that ends up with rate cuts at 1082 00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,120 Speaker 2: some point in the near future, well that's. 1083 00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:36,520 Speaker 18: One way I'm thinking about it, Joe. 1084 00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:37,359 Speaker 10: Yeah. 1085 00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,400 Speaker 18: I mean, if you push the economy into recession, I mean, 1086 00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:41,640 Speaker 18: if it's going to have to cut well, you would 1087 00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:43,839 Speaker 18: think that's going to knock the wind out of it. 1088 00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:47,120 Speaker 18: What remaining when is left in inflation, and the FED 1089 00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:49,279 Speaker 18: will have to start cutting interest rates. I mean, you know, 1090 00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,600 Speaker 18: financial market is you know better than I are already 1091 00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:57,319 Speaker 18: discounting some pretty significant rate cuts later this year. And 1092 00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:59,960 Speaker 18: that has nothing to do even before you even can 1093 00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:03,000 Speaker 18: sharing anything relates to the debt limit and speaking macarthy's legislation. 1094 00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:07,680 Speaker 18: So yeah, I mean, I think if Speaking McCarthy's legislation 1095 00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:11,480 Speaker 18: has passed in its entirety, you know, it will mean 1096 00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,160 Speaker 18: that it's going to have to be backtracking here pretty 1097 00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,920 Speaker 18: quickly because the economy it's not intercession, will be pretty. 1098 00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,200 Speaker 17: Darn close well, And of course you have to factor 1099 00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:21,200 Speaker 17: in the recent banking crisis to that which you alluded 1100 00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:24,480 Speaker 17: to earlier. Mark, how much do you expect that that 1101 00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,200 Speaker 17: recent turmoil in the banking sector is going to weigh 1102 00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:30,360 Speaker 17: on economic growth, is going to weigh on lending? Do 1103 00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,120 Speaker 17: you think we're heading for a credit crunch? 1104 00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,960 Speaker 18: Yeah, it's a it's ahead. When it's a question to 1105 00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,560 Speaker 18: what degree you know, right, I'll have to say, you know, 1106 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:43,040 Speaker 18: my expectation a few weeks ago, in the immediate wake 1107 00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:45,640 Speaker 18: of the of the crisis was that it would shave 1108 00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:47,560 Speaker 18: about a half a point off a GDP in the 1109 00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:50,920 Speaker 18: coming year, and the key link would be through, as 1110 00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:54,719 Speaker 18: you say, tighter lending standards and less credit availability for 1111 00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:59,960 Speaker 18: businesses and for consumers. And still early days a week, 1112 00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,760 Speaker 18: still on a lot of data points, So we're getting 1113 00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:04,719 Speaker 18: a lot more anecdotes than data so far. But the 1114 00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:08,120 Speaker 18: anecdotes feel better than I would have thought. I mean, 1115 00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:12,080 Speaker 18: lenders are clearly tightening, lending is clearly weakening, but so 1116 00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:15,120 Speaker 18: far not to the degree that I was fearful of 1117 00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:17,240 Speaker 18: just a few weeks ago. So I feel pretty I 1118 00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:19,800 Speaker 18: feel better about that than I did. You know, in 1119 00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:23,200 Speaker 18: the immediate wag. But nonetheless, having said all of that, obviously, 1120 00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:25,760 Speaker 18: you know, a lot of uncertainty here and a lot 1121 00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,120 Speaker 18: to play out over the next few weeks a few months. 1122 00:57:28,320 --> 00:57:31,040 Speaker 17: To come back to what Speaker McCarthy is trying to achieve. 1123 00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:34,080 Speaker 17: He wants to pull back on spending because as much 1124 00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:36,680 Speaker 17: as we can talk about the economic gramifications of what 1125 00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,640 Speaker 17: you know, a lower fiscal impulse means for the economy, 1126 00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:44,280 Speaker 17: there also are economic gramifications of high debt levels, right, 1127 00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:45,960 Speaker 17: I mean, how should we be thinking about that? 1128 00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,680 Speaker 18: Yeah, I totally agree with that. I mean, we got along, 1129 00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:51,880 Speaker 18: We've got some real significant fiscal issues. I think this 1130 00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:56,640 Speaker 18: though discussion around cutting discretionary spending is really a sideshow 1131 00:57:56,760 --> 00:58:00,200 Speaker 18: and you know, not productive, because discretionary spending is been 1132 00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,800 Speaker 18: falling steadily and at least in terms of GDP, it's 1133 00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,440 Speaker 18: a very small piece of the pie. And this it's 1134 00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:07,360 Speaker 18: not going to address any issues. It just creates a 1135 00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:10,120 Speaker 18: lot of stirm and drag and drama and the day 1136 00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:12,160 Speaker 18: it's not going to help, you know, significantly in terms 1137 00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:14,760 Speaker 18: of addressing our long term problems. I mean, clearly the 1138 00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:19,000 Speaker 18: problems are centered around the mandatory programs like Social Security 1139 00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:23,320 Speaker 18: and more significant Medicare and Medicaid. That's really where they 1140 00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:26,280 Speaker 18: wallmakers need to focus. But they can't do that in 1141 00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:28,600 Speaker 18: the heat of the battle over a debt limit increases. 1142 00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:32,520 Speaker 18: This is something These are big programs require very careful 1143 00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,720 Speaker 18: consideration and the flow of the deliberation. It's going to 1144 00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:37,640 Speaker 18: take some time, and you can't do that, you know, 1145 00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:39,640 Speaker 18: in a few weeks, few months. So this debt limit 1146 00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,240 Speaker 18: drama is very unproductive. It's not helpful in addressing our 1147 00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:43,360 Speaker 18: long term fiscal problems. 1148 00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,920 Speaker 2: Well, that's right, So just to zero in on that 1149 00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:48,600 Speaker 2: a bit more while you're still with us, Mark Sandy, 1150 00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:51,320 Speaker 2: At what point do you start worrying? Maybe you're there already. 1151 00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:52,600 Speaker 2: I feel like I can hear it a bit in 1152 00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:55,120 Speaker 2: your voice. But the market's been kind of whistling past 1153 00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:57,200 Speaker 2: the graveyard on this, at least the stock market, I 1154 00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,320 Speaker 2: know the bond market is waking up a bit. But 1155 00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,600 Speaker 2: knowing that the Congress is about to go on recess again, 1156 00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:04,960 Speaker 2: knowing the X date could be sooner than first planned, 1157 00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:08,720 Speaker 2: it seems like the odds are getting worse with each 1158 00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:12,160 Speaker 2: day that Speaker McCarthy and Joe Biden don't talk, and 1159 00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:14,920 Speaker 2: no one expects this plan to get through Congress. So 1160 00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,360 Speaker 2: when when do we start worrying about the cliff? 1161 00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:21,320 Speaker 18: Well, I'm worried about it. Yeah, I mean, I think 1162 00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:23,520 Speaker 18: this is going to be pretty ugly, pretty messy. I mean, 1163 00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:27,120 Speaker 18: I think the next thing that will happen though, would 1164 00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:29,560 Speaker 18: be that lawmakers will agree to kick the can down 1165 00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:32,320 Speaker 18: the road, that they're going to bury the debt limit 1166 00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,600 Speaker 18: decision around the decision for the fiscal year twenty twenty 1167 00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:39,040 Speaker 18: fourth budget. You know, that's funding the government after September 1168 00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:43,200 Speaker 18: thirtieth ye and keeping the government open and not along 1169 00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,160 Speaker 18: the shutdown, and so by so doing, you know, I 1170 00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,600 Speaker 18: think they'll we'll have to address those two issues. But 1171 00:59:48,680 --> 00:59:51,720 Speaker 18: that's that kicks the can. It buys them a little 1172 00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:55,720 Speaker 18: bit of time. The drama will calm down, that's my expectation. 1173 00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:59,080 Speaker 18: But having said that, you know, September counp will come 1174 00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:01,280 Speaker 18: here pretty quickly. Yeah, right, and we're gonna be right 1175 01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:03,120 Speaker 18: right back at it. And of course the time is 1176 01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:05,680 Speaker 18: going to be even weaker, you know, come September and 1177 01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:08,000 Speaker 18: more vulnerable being and it goes wrong. 1178 01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:09,160 Speaker 6: So I am very. 1179 01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:10,920 Speaker 18: Worried about it. I think, you know, just this doesn't 1180 01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:11,520 Speaker 18: make any. 1181 01:00:11,320 --> 01:00:13,560 Speaker 6: Sense whatsoever, even though you've seen this movie. 1182 01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,280 Speaker 2: Maybe that's actually the reason why you're worried you've seen 1183 01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:17,560 Speaker 2: this movie too many times. 1184 01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:20,200 Speaker 18: Well, I've seen the movie and this movie, and I 1185 01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:22,440 Speaker 18: think we all know the ending. Yes, it feels like 1186 01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:25,000 Speaker 18: between now and the ending is gonna's going to be 1187 01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:27,440 Speaker 18: different this time. This one is not going to be 1188 01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:31,720 Speaker 18: as you know, as uh as graceful if that's the word, 1189 01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,760 Speaker 18: I can't do it a better word, as has been 1190 01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:36,840 Speaker 18: in infication in the past. This this is going to 1191 01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:41,000 Speaker 18: be just given the politics or political uh kind of discord, 1192 01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:44,760 Speaker 18: and just the kind of theosyncratic makeup of the Congress 1193 01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,400 Speaker 18: at this point in time, this doesn't feel very good 1194 01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:47,600 Speaker 18: to me. 1195 01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:49,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's a little more of an action movie 1196 01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,000 Speaker 2: than we before, maybe more of a horrible There you go. Mark, 1197 01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:53,920 Speaker 2: great to have you and thanks for sharing your insights. 1198 01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:56,560 Speaker 2: Mark Zandy is a chief economist of course, at Movie's Analytics, 1199 01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:58,000 Speaker 2: and Mark, great to have you back today on. 1200 01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:01,040 Speaker 18: Bloomberg anytime, Joe, It's good to chat with you guys. 1201 01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:01,600 Speaker 18: Take care now. 1202 01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:04,680 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to spend time with Mark Sandy. And 1203 01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:06,960 Speaker 2: it's a forecast that we need to factor in again here, 1204 01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:09,720 Speaker 2: Kayley not necessarily because this is going to pass. No 1205 01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:12,280 Speaker 2: one's predicting that. I don't think even Speaker McCarthy would 1206 01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:14,640 Speaker 2: tell you that. But components of it will end up 1207 01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:15,360 Speaker 2: in a final bill. 1208 01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:15,880 Speaker 7: Yeah. 1209 01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,360 Speaker 17: I mean, if ultimately what this comes down to is 1210 01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:22,080 Speaker 17: that a Republican party, which does have leadership of the 1211 01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:25,320 Speaker 17: House of Representatives, wants to pull back on spending, we 1212 01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:28,080 Speaker 17: do have to start thinking about the longer term economic 1213 01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:31,240 Speaker 17: ramifications of that. What that you lack of a fiscal 1214 01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:34,680 Speaker 17: impulse ultimately is going to bring or not bring for 1215 01:01:34,840 --> 01:01:36,120 Speaker 17: the US economy. 1216 01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:37,400 Speaker 2: And an interesting wrinkle on what it means for the 1217 01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:41,560 Speaker 2: FED because that will change the whole dynamic for the 1218 01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:46,480 Speaker 2: FED as it makes decisions about the year going forward. 1219 01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure 1220 01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:54,000 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 1221 01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:56,640 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 1222 01:01:56,720 --> 01:01:59,440 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, d C at one 1223 01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:03,480 Speaker 2: pm E Dan time at Bloomberg dot com