WEBVTT - Vaccine Front-Runner Months Ahead of Competition 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 And of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.959 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.959 hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.079 Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, ol Bloomberg dot com. You 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.280 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.159 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:36.400 YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, the coronavirus, Jason, 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:38.199 you know, initially, I think we thought it was the 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:41.800 great equalizer, meaning everyone was similarly at risk of getting it. 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:43.840 We learned very very quickly that was not the case. 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:45.440 And we have a great guest to get into that 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:48.800 we do really happy to have with us, Amelia Simonova. 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:51.640 She is Associate Professor of Economics and Health at the 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:54.760 Johns Hopkins carry School of Business, joining us on the 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:58.360 phone from the nation's capital and Amelia, it's really nice 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:00.000 to have you with us. You know, often we're taught 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.120 working to some of your colleagues over at the Bloomberg 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:05.200 School of Public Health, which of course is supported by 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:08.280 Mike Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg Philanthropy's and Bloomberg Galpy, 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.160 the parent of this station. But it's a good reminder 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:15.040 of the economic impact of this virus that we also 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:19.880 should be so concerned with that disproportionate effect that Carol 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:24.400 alluded to tell us what the data show. Hi, Carol 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.039 and Jason and everyone in Bloomberg unis thank you for 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:30.560 having me um Um. This is a great question. We 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.360 do talk a lot about the public health impact feature 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:38.080 of course foremost and most important, but the economic impacts 0:01:38.200 --> 0:01:41.560 are also catching up with us and not gingful seed 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:45.840 those economic impacts from fold for this repeable future. Now 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:48.600 a comics they're talking about the piece of one year 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.200 to one and a half maybe two year horizonal or 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:55.920 which wasson a seat um, the impact of the coronavirus epidemics, 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:59.400 and you mentioned just like the public health and the 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:02.520 health and as disproportion and there not, it's not the 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:06.520 great equalizer. On the contrary, it seems to have exacerbations 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:11.600 already existing this one and dificality in the population. So 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:16.160 the economics compact are not the same across or different states, 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:20.000 across different demographic groups, and they won across gender. And 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.239 what we have found is that, you know, there is 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:25.600 a lot of structural reasons for that, and I'm happy 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:28.000 to talk a lot more about that, Amelia. Let's get 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:30.320 into it, because right we have found out that you know, 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:34.800 Blacks Latinos are impacted much more severely because of this. 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:36.880 In a lot of times it's because some of it 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:39.120 has to do with their own health situations, but it 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.000 also happens to do with the kind of jobs that 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.959 they're doing. And I think what you also get into, 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.960 and some of the work that you've done is occupations 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:49.960 in certain cities and state, right are certainly going to 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:55.000 be affected by the amount of different types of populations 0:02:55.040 --> 0:03:00.440 within that state. Absolutely. And the one act think that 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.640 we have booked at is how well can occupations be 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.880 performed remotely and in a in a in a situation 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.960 of social distancing, be at a complete shut down where 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:13.440 everybody is staying at home, or just you know, you 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.680 can't go to the office every day. You can go 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.520 every third day or any of those. It matters a 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:20.839 lot who can do their work from home and who 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:24.240 can do it well um. And it also matters how 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:28.640 this affect your mobility. And we do have data and 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.239 we have studies that show to have um there's big 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:36.760 differences across economic social demographic groups. Right, Black and Voltinos, 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:40.240 the Native Americans are much less likely to be in 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:44.880 jobs that can be performed remotely compared to what's an Asians. 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:46.800 And these are the group that will have looked at 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.080 because that's what's available. But it's exactly agree with what 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:53.880 you're saying. So we do have these their underlying that's 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:57.000 how the economy is and uh and and this is 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:01.240 before COVID hit COVID dominating to work and so Amelia. 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:05.120 When you look at how this will manifest going forward, 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:09.080 how soon will we see the economic impact of this 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:13.040 or are we already seeing it disproportionately when it comes 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:18.440 to these different categories. So we we are already seeing 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:22.360 the impact. And you can you all know the unemploymant numbers. 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:26.400 We are an instituation a really hard imployment um UM. 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:30.160 The numbers are not exaggregated by by racial groups or 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.760 at least you don't have deficial numbers. I think when 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:35.360 we see those numbers will be conformed, but by what 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.039 we've been talking about will be confirmed. What we do 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:42.320 see is we have differences in the impact of uh 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:47.400 OF of unemployment compared in different states depending on how 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.159 teleworkable or how I able our people in those states 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:54.400 to perform their jobs. And in states where you have 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.920 fewer people able to perform their jobs remotely, you have 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:01.640 higher and employment um and spaces where more people can 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:03.880 do them. You have law on employment right, so you 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:07.839 can you know, draw conclusions. What do you know what? 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:09.400 I just want to jump in. I think what's interesting 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:11.320 about this work, especially in a day when we are 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:14.000 hearing from Nancy Pelosi or David Weston caught up with 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.039 her how speaker and we're going to hear a little 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:19.320 bit of that conversation shortly. But you know, when we're 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:22.080 trying to figure out relief, it's just a reminder that 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.360 not every city has impacted the same, not every state 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:25.800 has impacted the same, And a lot of it has 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:29.960 to do through demographics, you know, because that composition has 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.920 determined kind of who has been impacted most by the virus. 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:35.000 Maybe because they couldn't find work or what have you, 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.240 and may also tell us a little bit Amelia about 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:40.440 the kind of relief that maybe needs to go to 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:46.000 certain parts of the country specifically. Well, I can tell 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:49.000 you that there's very big differences a class space. For example, 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:52.039 in Washington, d C. Where I leve, more than sixty 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.920 percent of occupations can be performed remotely, which means that 0:05:56.240 --> 0:06:01.200 traffic went down substantially, traffic kinds of traffics. People just 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:05.039 stayed home, and even when they started reopening, people did 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:07.640 not go back to work because they didn't really have to. 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:10.440 But in the place like was Virginia more like slowly 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:15.000 persental drops can be performed remotely, and so even if 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.359 you if you shut down stuff, people will still have 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:20.280 to go to work because they're considered in essential professionals. 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.560 So traffic doesn't go down as much as it should be. 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.479 And then when they start reopening, everything is going to 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:28.960 under start the opening. Everything is going to go back 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.200 and exceed what has been happening before. If we draw 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:36.440 a power between traffic and infection rates, which which is 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.200 still to be proved, but there's some evidence there that 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:42.480 suggests that that's the case, you can imagine what's happening 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:44.960 with the infection rates as well. It doesn't go down 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:47.599 as much of the chili r gonna go up more. 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:50.360 I want you all right, We're gonna leave it there. 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:52.840 Unfortunately we're running out of time, but thank you so much. 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:56.200 Amelia Semenova, Associate Professor of Economics and Health at the 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.520 Johns Hopkins carry School of Business, showing us on the 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:03.920 phone from Washington. The cover story this week is so timely. 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:07.400 It's by Bloomberg News senior writer Stephanie Baker. She has 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.120 been one of those reporters who has given us all 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:12.800 a front row seat when it comes to the virus. 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:15.200 She joins us right now on the phone from London, 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.640 along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber on the 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.560 phone in Massachusetts. And I feel like Joe, I see 0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:23.280 this book by Stephanie in the works COVID nineteen, my 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:27.320 first person account, because she has just done some incredible 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:31.480 reporting on all of this. I mean, she did incredible 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.960 reporting all the time, but especially on this one. Um. 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:38.520 And you know the I think that the slight difference 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.600 here it was like this particular story is not quite 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.720 as much of the first person story as some of 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:47.760 the other ones, but it's about probably the most in 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:50.440 my mind, one of the most important people in the 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:54.040 world right now, who's an Oxford professor named Sarah Gilbert 0:07:54.440 --> 0:08:01.080 who has basically been toiling away on VA vaccines for coronavirus, 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:05.000 is never getting any attention. She had, uh, you know, 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:08.680 the effort that is she's is sort of the culminating 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.720 effort right now. Began actually with a bola and then 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:14.600 she went to Mers and Lo and behold, at the 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.160 beginning of the year, all of a sudden, a coronavirus 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:20.480 pops up, and suddenly we have a person who had 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:22.720 been working on a very similar project and was able 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:28.040 to pivot and basically changed some of the approaches that 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:31.320 they were looking at. But there she is, months ahead 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:33.920 of where we think other people are in terms of 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:39.920 maybe being able to have a viable vaccine. And Stephanie, UM, 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:43.360 I'm just really curious. What what is she like? What 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:48.320 is her Gilbert like? Yeah, I mean she's really interesting. 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:54.800 I felt a bit like, um, a pestering student asking 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.280 for you know, what the next homework assignment would be. 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:03.040 You know, she had extraordinarily sort of focused and efficient 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:07.000 and conscious of keeping her eye on the prize in 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:10.520 terms of not wasting her time, you know, on things 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:13.440 that are not relevant and that it's just it comes 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:17.920 across in every interaction I had with her. Um, you know, 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:23.400 she's a serious minded scientist. Um. And she knows that, 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:25.400 you get the sense when you speak to her, she 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:29.080 knows that this is her moment that years of research 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:33.120 might finally pay off because of a sort of confluence 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:36.720 of events. Um. And you know that she needs to, 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:39.880 you know, really just keep on with it, keep on 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:43.760 top of it, and take one challenge at a time 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.600 to try to you know, sort of push this thing 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:50.280 forward and hopefully across the line. Um. You know she's 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.720 a scientist. She's not she's not a warm and fuzzy person. 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:56.040 She's she's you know, but I wouldn't want I would 0:09:56.080 --> 0:10:00.000 want someone to be as serious minded as she is. Um. 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.000 If you're looking for someone to save us from this 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:06.800 mass so so, Stephanie. There's there's dozens, I think in 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:09.720 the hundreds of efforts now under underway to actually get 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:15.760 this vaccine. What makes the Oxford approach different than some 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:18.920 of these other ones, including you know Maderna came up 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.600 yesterday as one that the market got really excited about. 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:27.240 What what is Oxford's approach here? Yeah, I think that 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.960 one of the biggest differences is the safety profile. And 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:33.680 you know, we'll find out more about the Oxford vaccine 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:37.680 when they report preliminary results from their Phase one trial 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:44.160 on Monday. UM. But all along UM, Sarah Gilbert has expressed, 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.000 you know, confidence in the safety profile of this vaccine 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.920 that they tested it in something like twelve different vaccines. 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:54.719 In these vaccines haven't one approval, but they that that platform, 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:57.560 the technology that she's using, has been in thousands of 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:01.920 people already, so they have a fairly confident sense of 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:05.800 you know, what the adverse event you know, profile of 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:07.760 this vaccine would be, and they're they're quite confident that 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:10.280 that's not a huge hurdle. And I think, you know, 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.640 some of the results that came up from a Darrena there, 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:18.120 the adverse event profile did take some analysis by surprise. UM. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.360 And if you think about we need a vaccine for 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:24.319 not millions, but potentially billions of people. If you've got 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:28.280 five adverse event profile and you multiply that by the 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.240 number of people that are going to need to have 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:34.400 a vaccine, that's huge, right, So we need something that 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.640 is safe primarily to be able to roll it out 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.760 to a large number of people. And so Stephanie, as 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.320 you were talking to Gartan, as you came to understand this, 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.000 and and as Carol alluded to, you have done such 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:50.319 a great job on this particular project, as you always 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:53.000 do of sort of taking the whole view. And it 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:54.840 has been a personal story as you have helped us 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:58.800 understand from a consumer and a personal perspective, how this 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:02.199 is all working. What's your sense of how scientists are 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.880 working together, the collaboration, because you know, we've been talking 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:07.360 to a bunch of CEO as we talked to the 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:11.199 VOS CEO and others. I mean, everybody's racing for this. 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.360 There is obviously an element of like wanting to literally 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:18.920 save the world, but there's also a sense that beyond 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:22.120 heroic people could be this is when we're after all 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.600 wildly successful. I mean, this could be a game changer 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:30.800 on an economic and financial level too. Yeah, absolutely absolutely. 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:35.400 I mean obviously it's extraordinarily competitive, you know, I think, um, 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:37.600 you know, there's a there's a race to get their 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.920 first Um, you know, I did look at, for instance, 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:46.280 the last the polio vaccine that was developed by Jonas Salk, 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:50.880 who was you know, you know, given banner headlines as 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:54.640 you know, the one who saved the world from the 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:58.839 stability disease polio. You know, I've also often thought that 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.880 whoever gets to a vaccine first in this case, even 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:03.840 if it's not perfect, we'll be kind of the Jonas 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:08.000 Salk of our times. Um. I think there is you know, 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.640 even with the competitive nature of this, I think there 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:15.920 is collaboration among scientists, and you see it on social media, 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.080 and you see it in through the research reports. And 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:21.000 one of the things that Sarah Gilbert said to me is, 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.720 you know, no one knows how strong the immune response 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:27.800 really needs to be to achieve protection in people. You know, 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.959 we don't know the levels of neutralizing antibodies or T 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:35.240 cell responses. But once one vaccine developer gets a result 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:38.560 on what those levels really needs to be need to be, 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.319 and what those levels correlate with the level of protection, 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.080 she you know, she said, the whole field will gain 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.760 from that. They'll know what they're aiming for. Um. And 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.880 in that sense, I've often thought, looking and talking to 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.360 scientists on this, this is just such a huge boon 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:57.080 for science in general. You know that you know, a 0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:02.120 we're appreciating what they do more um and realized how 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.920 important it is, and you know that you know that 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:09.480 this will eventually have a huge positive effect. To think. 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:11.720 In the end, I have to say, Stephanie, your story 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.280 is and I do mean it like you've given us 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.400 a front row seed. And I feel like every time 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.679 Jason and I and I'm sure Jill feels the same way. 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.560 You know, we read something from you, We learned something more, 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:24.040 much more detailed when it comes to either antibodies or 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.920 this process of what it takes to get a vaccine done. Um, 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.040 I just always feel so much smarter. So thank you 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.200 so much. It is the cover story this week. Our 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.400 thanks to Bloomberg News senior writer Stephanie Baker on the 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.840 front runner who is months ahead of our competition when 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:40.320 it comes to getting a COVID vaccine, And of course, 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:42.960 our thanks always to Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Weber. 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:47.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:51.560 Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so let's talk a 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:55.080 little business week economics and now it was a big 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.240 day for data. We talked a little good, some bad, 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:00.640 some good, some bad. So let's figure out what it 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.040 actually means. Uh, we're saying good afternoon to Elena Shall 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:07.600 let you see new US economists for Bloomberg Economics journeys 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.000 on the phone from Long Island, Helena, how are you 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.520 good afternoon, Jason, very good, very well. And there is 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:20.120 some good data, there's some bad, and that highlights what 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.720 is going to happen to the U S economy. I 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:28.000 think the good ones retail sales obviously for the months 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.280 of June, but back in the past the data sale 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:37.840 and the stubbornly elevated levels of unemployment benefits telling us 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.320 that the economy will not be able to continue to 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:45.960 recover on it sold. The economy is approaching a cascade 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:51.000 of cliffs, including the exploration of unemployment benefits in the 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:56.480 top up of six hundred dollars, and the Payrolls Protection 0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.400 Program will stop accepting new applications in the beginning of August. 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.440 And on top of that, we are getting um the 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:10.320 a lot of different mortgage forbearancepluence by expiring as well. 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:15.680 So you know, the consumer may find themselves between the 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.240 rock and the heart place. So for the post of 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.800 next several months, with delayed statements coming do and no 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:27.160 money to say them. I mean, we cannot underestimate, right Yelena, 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:32.480 how important these relief programs have been for supporting the economy. 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:36.120 I mean it's we know GDP not great, we know that, 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.480 but imagine without these relief programs how much worse it 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:44.000 would be, and without these relief programs, how tough it 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:47.080 will be to get to a really strong recovery or 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:53.440 stronger recovery. Absolutely, the robustness of the recent data is 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.920 by no means an indication of UH, the economy that 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.600 can recover on it soul. Instead, it's a testament of 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:07.359 the timeliness of the unprecedented policy response and actually the 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:12.560 need for more. So I think UH Congress will agree 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.920 on it on extended aid by the end of the month, 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:21.120 but it will be slightly less generous and with an 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:25.000 intention to incentivize people to go back to work if 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.680 theres work out there. Yeah. So, as an economist, how 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:32.120 do you view that? I mean, taking it strictly through 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.040 sort of a data lens, knowing the models as well 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.600 as you do, talking to your team like you do, Elena, 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:41.199 what what is the right policy response? Here if you 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:46.280 were to design it, so the six hundred dollars top 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:51.720 up to unemployment benefits in many cases succeeded UH the 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:57.480 previous paycheck basically when a person was employed and people 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:01.119 started getting more than they were before the crisis. So 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:09.679 adjusting and calibrating this additional unemployment benefit would be tremendous 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.040 help going forward. So on the one hand, you need 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:15.679 to incentivise people to go back to work. On the 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:19.800 other hand, you really need to compensate a person who 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:24.080 is not responsible for losing this job just simply because 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:28.720 of what happened and the support income going forward. So UH, 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:34.160 topping unemployment benefits that a hundred percent of the previous 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.440 page chip would be one solution. Cutting it in half, 0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:41.720 I mean cutting in half six hundred dollars um, say 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.359 take a top up of three hundred dollars would be 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:48.560 an easier solution, but in some cases it will not 0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:51.119 be well calibrated. Right, you know, there's a bunch of 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.560 FED speakers. You go on the Bloomberg right now on 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.760 all type dot com, you're gonna see, you know, a 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:59.000 bunch of statements UM and events where a bunch of 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.480 the FED presidents are speaking different events, if you will. 0:19:02.600 --> 0:19:06.680 And you've got the Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostick. He's 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:09.920 saying that the US economy leveling off amid the virus outbreak, 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.760 and he says, you know, real time data, real time 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.240 data that they are getting today is suggesting again that 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.359 leveling off in terms of level of business activity, in 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:21.320 terms of the amount of jobs that are being returned 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:24.280 to the economy. You know, he's just talking about nervousness 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:27.480 exactly to what you're speaking to Lena about these relief 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.240 programs that if they don't come, or if they're smaller, 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.359 or if there's delays. Uh. There's another one by the 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:36.560 Chicago FED President Charlie Evans says he still expects positive 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:39.280 economic momentum in the second half. How are you guys 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:42.840 calling the second half at this point? So, yes, you 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:47.240 write this a lot of policy speeches right now, and 0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:52.479 it's it's very hard to keep trackle but the whole idea. 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:57.040 Actually there are a lot of uh simula themes throughout 0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:01.160 all the speeches, and it's it's about the topic of uncertainty. 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:05.400 So the uncertainty is extremely elevated. This is something that 0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:11.080 little brainer the board member of forms of the fifth 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:17.560 highlighted yesterday. Policy uncertainty and economic concernity is extremely elevated, 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:21.480 and in this environment it's very much up to the 0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:28.399 policymakers loanmakers to keep to provide that bridge going into 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.800 the second half of the year, going into the time 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:35.520 when the health crisis is over, and it will be over, 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:41.040 but in the meantime, the policy support is absolutely essential. Yeah, 0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.080 to catch up with you of the day, don't you think, Jason, 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:48.159 what's that we need more relief? Yeah? I think so. 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.560 I mean, certainly we heard it from How Speaker Nancy 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:53.520 Pelosi and and I think you'll animated a really interesting 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.439 economic case and also helped us understand some of the 0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:59.359 contours of this. And part of the debate is what 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:01.919 is the amount and is it just you know, you 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:05.920 cut it in half? Is that sort of too essentially 0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:09.960 um not dull, but but not sort of nuanced enough 0:21:10.040 --> 0:21:13.840 to to really help solve the problem? Big question, right, 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.000 And I think House Speaker Pelosi saying, you know, you 0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:17.560 gotta it's gonna be targeted. It's got to get to 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:21.320 the right groups of people and states, municipalities. I take 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:23.600 another element we didn't talk as much about that but 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.080 we know that that is being debated as well. Elina 0:21:26.119 --> 0:21:27.800 shall let you with thank you so much. I was 0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:34.560 good to catch up brother a journal now. But you 0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:39.640 let me drive? No, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll 0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:46.119 do the right rivel. I want to drive, just drive. 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:59.400 Good questions trying. This is the drive to the globe. 0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:05.560 On to me a thing radio, Yes, indeed, time for 0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:07.879 the drive to the clothes. Got Collier is with us 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:11.360 e CEO and c i O at Advisor's asset management. 0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:14.199 They've got I think approximately twenty seven billion in assets 0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:17.399 under management. They focus on the fixed income market. He 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:20.960 joins us on the phone from Monument Colorado. He's gotten 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:23.399 nice to have you here on this Thursday. Tell us 0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:25.280 a little bit about Colorado though, and how things are 0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:27.359 going in terms of the virus and how it is 0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:33.720 for you personally and professionally. Well, that that's a big question. Today. 0:22:33.800 --> 0:22:38.920 The the governor instituted um mandatory mask wearing in all 0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:43.000 public places. So up until now it's uh, you know, 0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:45.919 it's been maybe phlf the people wear masks in public 0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:50.160 places and stores. But as of midnight tonight, everyone will 0:22:50.200 --> 0:22:53.679 wear a mask as far as cases and spread in Colorado, 0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:59.320 really has not been nearly as bad as places that 0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:02.840 are farther south, So knock on wood, we feel a 0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:06.200 little bit lucky that way, but you know, it's it's 0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:09.720 a very big concern. It's a very big concern really 0:23:09.760 --> 0:23:13.199 no matter where you go. So professionally, you know, we 0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:17.520 have offices nationwide, so they're all in different areas and 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:22.840 experience different levels of problems, but all in all, everybody 0:23:22.880 --> 0:23:25.760 seems to be operating well. Most of our people are 0:23:25.800 --> 0:23:30.679 operating from home. And so as you look at those headlines, 0:23:30.760 --> 0:23:37.080 both locally and nationally through an investor's lens, Scott, what 0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:41.159 does it cause you to think about? And maybe more importantly, 0:23:41.600 --> 0:23:45.200 how has your view changed over the last say, three 0:23:45.240 --> 0:23:54.840 to five weeks while we're talking long stretches of time there, Jason, Um, so, really, my, 0:23:55.359 --> 0:23:57.640 you know, the outlook really, I don't think has changed 0:23:57.720 --> 0:24:00.639 as far as an investor over the last three to 0:24:00.840 --> 0:24:05.160