Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the
Speaker 1: latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.
Speaker 1: And of course Carol that's part of a team of
Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: can also listen to our radio show at two pm
Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on
Speaker 1: YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, the coronavirus, Jason,
Speaker 1: you know, initially, I think we thought it was the
Speaker 1: great equalizer, meaning everyone was similarly at risk of getting it.
Speaker 1: We learned very very quickly that was not the case.
Speaker 1: And we have a great guest to get into that
Speaker 1: we do really happy to have with us, Amelia Simonova.
Speaker 1: She is Associate Professor of Economics and Health at the
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins carry School of Business, joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone from the nation's capital and Amelia, it's really nice
Speaker 1: to have you with us. You know, often we're taught
Speaker 1: working to some of your colleagues over at the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: School of Public Health, which of course is supported by
Speaker 1: Mike Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg Philanthropy's and Bloomberg Galpy,
Speaker 1: the parent of this station. But it's a good reminder
Speaker 1: of the economic impact of this virus that we also
Speaker 1: should be so concerned with that disproportionate effect that Carol
Speaker 1: alluded to tell us what the data show. Hi, Carol
Speaker 1: and Jason and everyone in Bloomberg unis thank you for
Speaker 1: having me um Um. This is a great question. We
Speaker 1: do talk a lot about the public health impact feature
Speaker 1: of course foremost and most important, but the economic impacts
Speaker 1: are also catching up with us and not gingful seed
Speaker 1: those economic impacts from fold for this repeable future. Now
Speaker 1: a comics they're talking about the piece of one year
Speaker 1: to one and a half maybe two year horizonal or
Speaker 1: which wasson a seat um, the impact of the coronavirus epidemics,
Speaker 1: and you mentioned just like the public health and the
Speaker 1: health and as disproportion and there not, it's not the
Speaker 1: great equalizer. On the contrary, it seems to have exacerbations
Speaker 1: already existing this one and dificality in the population. So
Speaker 1: the economics compact are not the same across or different states,
Speaker 1: across different demographic groups, and they won across gender. And
Speaker 1: what we have found is that, you know, there is
Speaker 1: a lot of structural reasons for that, and I'm happy
Speaker 1: to talk a lot more about that, Amelia. Let's get
Speaker 1: into it, because right we have found out that you know,
Speaker 1: Blacks Latinos are impacted much more severely because of this.
Speaker 1: In a lot of times it's because some of it
Speaker 1: has to do with their own health situations, but it
Speaker 1: also happens to do with the kind of jobs that
Speaker 1: they're doing. And I think what you also get into,
Speaker 1: and some of the work that you've done is occupations
Speaker 1: in certain cities and state, right are certainly going to
Speaker 1: be affected by the amount of different types of populations
Speaker 1: within that state. Absolutely. And the one act think that
Speaker 1: we have booked at is how well can occupations be
Speaker 1: performed remotely and in a in a in a situation
Speaker 1: of social distancing, be at a complete shut down where
Speaker 1: everybody is staying at home, or just you know, you
Speaker 1: can't go to the office every day. You can go
Speaker 1: every third day or any of those. It matters a
Speaker 1: lot who can do their work from home and who
Speaker 1: can do it well um. And it also matters how
Speaker 1: this affect your mobility. And we do have data and
Speaker 1: we have studies that show to have um there's big
Speaker 1: differences across economic social demographic groups. Right, Black and Voltinos,
Speaker 1: the Native Americans are much less likely to be in
Speaker 1: jobs that can be performed remotely compared to what's an Asians.
Speaker 1: And these are the group that will have looked at
Speaker 1: because that's what's available. But it's exactly agree with what
Speaker 1: you're saying. So we do have these their underlying that's
Speaker 1: how the economy is and uh and and this is
Speaker 1: before COVID hit COVID dominating to work and so Amelia.
Speaker 1: When you look at how this will manifest going forward,
Speaker 1: how soon will we see the economic impact of this
Speaker 1: or are we already seeing it disproportionately when it comes
Speaker 1: to these different categories. So we we are already seeing
Speaker 1: the impact. And you can you all know the unemploymant numbers.
Speaker 1: We are an instituation a really hard imployment um UM.
Speaker 1: The numbers are not exaggregated by by racial groups or
Speaker 1: at least you don't have deficial numbers. I think when
Speaker 1: we see those numbers will be conformed, but by what
Speaker 1: we've been talking about will be confirmed. What we do
Speaker 1: see is we have differences in the impact of uh
Speaker 1: OF of unemployment compared in different states depending on how
Speaker 1: teleworkable or how I able our people in those states
Speaker 1: to perform their jobs. And in states where you have
Speaker 1: fewer people able to perform their jobs remotely, you have
Speaker 1: higher and employment um and spaces where more people can
Speaker 1: do them. You have law on employment right, so you
Speaker 1: can you know, draw conclusions. What do you know what?
Speaker 1: I just want to jump in. I think what's interesting
Speaker 1: about this work, especially in a day when we are
Speaker 1: hearing from Nancy Pelosi or David Weston caught up with
Speaker 1: her how speaker and we're going to hear a little
Speaker 1: bit of that conversation shortly. But you know, when we're
Speaker 1: trying to figure out relief, it's just a reminder that
Speaker 1: not every city has impacted the same, not every state
Speaker 1: has impacted the same, And a lot of it has
Speaker 1: to do through demographics, you know, because that composition has
Speaker 1: determined kind of who has been impacted most by the virus.
Speaker 1: Maybe because they couldn't find work or what have you,
Speaker 1: and may also tell us a little bit Amelia about
Speaker 1: the kind of relief that maybe needs to go to
Speaker 1: certain parts of the country specifically. Well, I can tell
Speaker 1: you that there's very big differences a class space. For example,
Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. Where I leve, more than sixty
Speaker 1: percent of occupations can be performed remotely, which means that
Speaker 1: traffic went down substantially, traffic kinds of traffics. People just
Speaker 1: stayed home, and even when they started reopening, people did
Speaker 1: not go back to work because they didn't really have to.
Speaker 1: But in the place like was Virginia more like slowly
Speaker 1: persental drops can be performed remotely, and so even if
Speaker 1: you if you shut down stuff, people will still have
Speaker 1: to go to work because they're considered in essential professionals.
Speaker 1: So traffic doesn't go down as much as it should be.
Speaker 1: And then when they start reopening, everything is going to
Speaker 1: under start the opening. Everything is going to go back
Speaker 1: and exceed what has been happening before. If we draw
Speaker 1: a power between traffic and infection rates, which which is
Speaker 1: still to be proved, but there's some evidence there that
Speaker 1: suggests that that's the case, you can imagine what's happening
Speaker 1: with the infection rates as well. It doesn't go down
Speaker 1: as much of the chili r gonna go up more.
Speaker 1: I want you all right, We're gonna leave it there.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately we're running out of time, but thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Amelia Semenova, Associate Professor of Economics and Health at the
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins carry School of Business, showing us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Washington. The cover story this week is so timely.
Speaker 1: It's by Bloomberg News senior writer Stephanie Baker. She has
Speaker 1: been one of those reporters who has given us all
Speaker 1: a front row seat when it comes to the virus.
Speaker 1: She joins us right now on the phone from London,
Speaker 1: along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber on the
Speaker 1: phone in Massachusetts. And I feel like Joe, I see
Speaker 1: this book by Stephanie in the works COVID nineteen, my
Speaker 1: first person account, because she has just done some incredible
Speaker 1: reporting on all of this. I mean, she did incredible
Speaker 1: reporting all the time, but especially on this one. Um.
Speaker 1: And you know the I think that the slight difference
Speaker 1: here it was like this particular story is not quite
Speaker 1: as much of the first person story as some of
Speaker 1: the other ones, but it's about probably the most in
Speaker 1: my mind, one of the most important people in the
Speaker 1: world right now, who's an Oxford professor named Sarah Gilbert
Speaker 1: who has basically been toiling away on VA vaccines for coronavirus,
Speaker 1: is never getting any attention. She had, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the effort that is she's is sort of the culminating
Speaker 1: effort right now. Began actually with a bola and then
Speaker 1: she went to Mers and Lo and behold, at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the year, all of a sudden, a coronavirus
Speaker 1: pops up, and suddenly we have a person who had
Speaker 1: been working on a very similar project and was able
Speaker 1: to pivot and basically changed some of the approaches that
Speaker 1: they were looking at. But there she is, months ahead
Speaker 1: of where we think other people are in terms of
Speaker 1: maybe being able to have a viable vaccine. And Stephanie, UM,
Speaker 1: I'm just really curious. What what is she like? What
Speaker 1: is her Gilbert like? Yeah, I mean she's really interesting.
Speaker 1: I felt a bit like, um, a pestering student asking
Speaker 1: for you know, what the next homework assignment would be.
Speaker 1: You know, she had extraordinarily sort of focused and efficient
Speaker 1: and conscious of keeping her eye on the prize in
Speaker 1: terms of not wasting her time, you know, on things
Speaker 1: that are not relevant and that it's just it comes
Speaker 1: across in every interaction I had with her. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: she's a serious minded scientist. Um. And she knows that,
Speaker 1: you get the sense when you speak to her, she
Speaker 1: knows that this is her moment that years of research
Speaker 1: might finally pay off because of a sort of confluence
Speaker 1: of events. Um. And you know that she needs to,
Speaker 1: you know, really just keep on with it, keep on
Speaker 1: top of it, and take one challenge at a time
Speaker 1: to try to you know, sort of push this thing
Speaker 1: forward and hopefully across the line. Um. You know she's
Speaker 1: a scientist. She's not she's not a warm and fuzzy person.
Speaker 1: She's she's you know, but I wouldn't want I would
Speaker 1: want someone to be as serious minded as she is. Um.
Speaker 1: If you're looking for someone to save us from this
Speaker 1: mass so so, Stephanie. There's there's dozens, I think in
Speaker 1: the hundreds of efforts now under underway to actually get
Speaker 1: this vaccine. What makes the Oxford approach different than some
Speaker 1: of these other ones, including you know Maderna came up
Speaker 1: yesterday as one that the market got really excited about.
Speaker 1: What what is Oxford's approach here? Yeah, I think that
Speaker 1: one of the biggest differences is the safety profile. And
Speaker 1: you know, we'll find out more about the Oxford vaccine
Speaker 1: when they report preliminary results from their Phase one trial
Speaker 1: on Monday. UM. But all along UM, Sarah Gilbert has expressed,
Speaker 1: you know, confidence in the safety profile of this vaccine
Speaker 1: that they tested it in something like twelve different vaccines.
Speaker 1: In these vaccines haven't one approval, but they that that platform,
Speaker 1: the technology that she's using, has been in thousands of
Speaker 1: people already, so they have a fairly confident sense of
Speaker 1: you know, what the adverse event you know, profile of
Speaker 1: this vaccine would be, and they're they're quite confident that
Speaker 1: that's not a huge hurdle. And I think, you know,
Speaker 1: some of the results that came up from a Darrena there,
Speaker 1: the adverse event profile did take some analysis by surprise. UM.
Speaker 1: And if you think about we need a vaccine for
Speaker 1: not millions, but potentially billions of people. If you've got
Speaker 1: five adverse event profile and you multiply that by the
Speaker 1: number of people that are going to need to have
Speaker 1: a vaccine, that's huge, right, So we need something that
Speaker 1: is safe primarily to be able to roll it out
Speaker 1: to a large number of people. And so Stephanie, as
Speaker 1: you were talking to Gartan, as you came to understand this,
Speaker 1: and and as Carol alluded to, you have done such
Speaker 1: a great job on this particular project, as you always
Speaker 1: do of sort of taking the whole view. And it
Speaker 1: has been a personal story as you have helped us
Speaker 1: understand from a consumer and a personal perspective, how this
Speaker 1: is all working. What's your sense of how scientists are
Speaker 1: working together, the collaboration, because you know, we've been talking
Speaker 1: to a bunch of CEO as we talked to the
Speaker 1: VOS CEO and others. I mean, everybody's racing for this.
Speaker 1: There is obviously an element of like wanting to literally
Speaker 1: save the world, but there's also a sense that beyond
Speaker 1: heroic people could be this is when we're after all
Speaker 1: wildly successful. I mean, this could be a game changer
Speaker 1: on an economic and financial level too. Yeah, absolutely absolutely.
Speaker 1: I mean obviously it's extraordinarily competitive, you know, I think, um,
Speaker 1: you know, there's a there's a race to get their
Speaker 1: first Um, you know, I did look at, for instance,
Speaker 1: the last the polio vaccine that was developed by Jonas Salk,
Speaker 1: who was you know, you know, given banner headlines as
Speaker 1: you know, the one who saved the world from the
Speaker 1: stability disease polio. You know, I've also often thought that
Speaker 1: whoever gets to a vaccine first in this case, even
Speaker 1: if it's not perfect, we'll be kind of the Jonas
Speaker 1: Salk of our times. Um. I think there is you know,
Speaker 1: even with the competitive nature of this, I think there
Speaker 1: is collaboration among scientists, and you see it on social media,
Speaker 1: and you see it in through the research reports. And
Speaker 1: one of the things that Sarah Gilbert said to me is,
Speaker 1: you know, no one knows how strong the immune response
Speaker 1: really needs to be to achieve protection in people. You know,
Speaker 1: we don't know the levels of neutralizing antibodies or T
Speaker 1: cell responses. But once one vaccine developer gets a result
Speaker 1: on what those levels really needs to be need to be,
Speaker 1: and what those levels correlate with the level of protection,
Speaker 1: she you know, she said, the whole field will gain
Speaker 1: from that. They'll know what they're aiming for. Um. And
Speaker 1: in that sense, I've often thought, looking and talking to
Speaker 1: scientists on this, this is just such a huge boon
Speaker 1: for science in general. You know that you know, a
Speaker 1: we're appreciating what they do more um and realized how
Speaker 1: important it is, and you know that you know that
Speaker 1: this will eventually have a huge positive effect. To think.
Speaker 1: In the end, I have to say, Stephanie, your story
Speaker 1: is and I do mean it like you've given us
Speaker 1: a front row seed. And I feel like every time
Speaker 1: Jason and I and I'm sure Jill feels the same way.
Speaker 1: You know, we read something from you, We learned something more,
Speaker 1: much more detailed when it comes to either antibodies or
Speaker 1: this process of what it takes to get a vaccine done. Um,
Speaker 1: I just always feel so much smarter. So thank you
Speaker 1: so much. It is the cover story this week. Our
Speaker 1: thanks to Bloomberg News senior writer Stephanie Baker on the
Speaker 1: front runner who is months ahead of our competition when
Speaker 1: it comes to getting a COVID vaccine, And of course,
Speaker 1: our thanks always to Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Weber.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason
Speaker 1: Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so let's talk a
Speaker 1: little business week economics and now it was a big
Speaker 1: day for data. We talked a little good, some bad,
Speaker 1: some good, some bad. So let's figure out what it
Speaker 1: actually means. Uh, we're saying good afternoon to Elena Shall
Speaker 1: let you see new US economists for Bloomberg Economics journeys
Speaker 1: on the phone from Long Island, Helena, how are you
Speaker 1: good afternoon, Jason, very good, very well. And there is
Speaker 1: some good data, there's some bad, and that highlights what
Speaker 1: is going to happen to the U S economy. I
Speaker 1: think the good ones retail sales obviously for the months
Speaker 1: of June, but back in the past the data sale
Speaker 1: and the stubbornly elevated levels of unemployment benefits telling us
Speaker 1: that the economy will not be able to continue to
Speaker 1: recover on it sold. The economy is approaching a cascade
Speaker 1: of cliffs, including the exploration of unemployment benefits in the
Speaker 1: top up of six hundred dollars, and the Payrolls Protection
Speaker 1: Program will stop accepting new applications in the beginning of August.
Speaker 1: And on top of that, we are getting um the
Speaker 1: a lot of different mortgage forbearancepluence by expiring as well.
Speaker 1: So you know, the consumer may find themselves between the
Speaker 1: rock and the heart place. So for the post of
Speaker 1: next several months, with delayed statements coming do and no
Speaker 1: money to say them. I mean, we cannot underestimate, right Yelena,
Speaker 1: how important these relief programs have been for supporting the economy.
Speaker 1: I mean it's we know GDP not great, we know that,
Speaker 1: but imagine without these relief programs how much worse it
Speaker 1: would be, and without these relief programs, how tough it
Speaker 1: will be to get to a really strong recovery or
Speaker 1: stronger recovery. Absolutely, the robustness of the recent data is
Speaker 1: by no means an indication of UH, the economy that
Speaker 1: can recover on it soul. Instead, it's a testament of
Speaker 1: the timeliness of the unprecedented policy response and actually the
Speaker 1: need for more. So I think UH Congress will agree
Speaker 1: on it on extended aid by the end of the month,
Speaker 1: but it will be slightly less generous and with an
Speaker 1: intention to incentivize people to go back to work if
Speaker 1: theres work out there. Yeah. So, as an economist, how
Speaker 1: do you view that? I mean, taking it strictly through
Speaker 1: sort of a data lens, knowing the models as well
Speaker 1: as you do, talking to your team like you do, Elena,
Speaker 1: what what is the right policy response? Here if you
Speaker 1: were to design it, so the six hundred dollars top
Speaker 1: up to unemployment benefits in many cases succeeded UH the
Speaker 1: previous paycheck basically when a person was employed and people
Speaker 1: started getting more than they were before the crisis. So
Speaker 1: adjusting and calibrating this additional unemployment benefit would be tremendous
Speaker 1: help going forward. So on the one hand, you need
Speaker 1: to incentivise people to go back to work. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, you really need to compensate a person who
Speaker 1: is not responsible for losing this job just simply because
Speaker 1: of what happened and the support income going forward. So UH,
Speaker 1: topping unemployment benefits that a hundred percent of the previous
Speaker 1: page chip would be one solution. Cutting it in half,
Speaker 1: I mean cutting in half six hundred dollars um, say
Speaker 1: take a top up of three hundred dollars would be
Speaker 1: an easier solution, but in some cases it will not
Speaker 1: be well calibrated. Right, you know, there's a bunch of
Speaker 1: FED speakers. You go on the Bloomberg right now on
Speaker 1: all type dot com, you're gonna see, you know, a
Speaker 1: bunch of statements UM and events where a bunch of
Speaker 1: the FED presidents are speaking different events, if you will.
Speaker 1: And you've got the Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostick. He's
Speaker 1: saying that the US economy leveling off amid the virus outbreak,
Speaker 1: and he says, you know, real time data, real time
Speaker 1: data that they are getting today is suggesting again that
Speaker 1: leveling off in terms of level of business activity, in
Speaker 1: terms of the amount of jobs that are being returned
Speaker 1: to the economy. You know, he's just talking about nervousness
Speaker 1: exactly to what you're speaking to Lena about these relief
Speaker 1: programs that if they don't come, or if they're smaller,
Speaker 1: or if there's delays. Uh. There's another one by the
Speaker 1: Chicago FED President Charlie Evans says he still expects positive
Speaker 1: economic momentum in the second half. How are you guys
Speaker 1: calling the second half at this point? So, yes, you
Speaker 1: write this a lot of policy speeches right now, and
Speaker 1: it's it's very hard to keep trackle but the whole idea.
Speaker 1: Actually there are a lot of uh simula themes throughout
Speaker 1: all the speeches, and it's it's about the topic of uncertainty.
Speaker 1: So the uncertainty is extremely elevated. This is something that
Speaker 1: little brainer the board member of forms of the fifth
Speaker 1: highlighted yesterday. Policy uncertainty and economic concernity is extremely elevated,
Speaker 1: and in this environment it's very much up to the
Speaker 1: policymakers loanmakers to keep to provide that bridge going into
Speaker 1: the second half of the year, going into the time
Speaker 1: when the health crisis is over, and it will be over,
Speaker 1: but in the meantime, the policy support is absolutely essential. Yeah,
Speaker 1: to catch up with you of the day, don't you think, Jason,
Speaker 1: what's that we need more relief? Yeah? I think so.
Speaker 1: I mean, certainly we heard it from How Speaker Nancy
Speaker 1: Pelosi and and I think you'll animated a really interesting
Speaker 1: economic case and also helped us understand some of the
Speaker 1: contours of this. And part of the debate is what
Speaker 1: is the amount and is it just you know, you
Speaker 1: cut it in half? Is that sort of too essentially
Speaker 1: um not dull, but but not sort of nuanced enough
Speaker 1: to to really help solve the problem? Big question, right,
Speaker 1: And I think House Speaker Pelosi saying, you know, you
Speaker 1: gotta it's gonna be targeted. It's got to get to
Speaker 1: the right groups of people and states, municipalities. I take
Speaker 1: another element we didn't talk as much about that but
Speaker 1: we know that that is being debated as well. Elina
Speaker 1: shall let you with thank you so much. I was
Speaker 1: good to catch up brother a journal now. But you
Speaker 1: let me drive? No, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll
Speaker 1: do the right rivel. I want to drive, just drive.
Speaker 1: Good questions trying. This is the drive to the globe.
Speaker 1: On to me a thing radio, Yes, indeed, time for
Speaker 1: the drive to the clothes. Got Collier is with us
Speaker 1: e CEO and c i O at Advisor's asset management.
Speaker 1: They've got I think approximately twenty seven billion in assets
Speaker 1: under management. They focus on the fixed income market. He
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Monument Colorado. He's gotten
Speaker 1: nice to have you here on this Thursday. Tell us
Speaker 1: a little bit about Colorado though, and how things are
Speaker 1: going in terms of the virus and how it is
Speaker 1: for you personally and professionally. Well, that that's a big question. Today.
Speaker 1: The the governor instituted um mandatory mask wearing in all
Speaker 1: public places. So up until now it's uh, you know,
Speaker 1: it's been maybe phlf the people wear masks in public
Speaker 1: places and stores. But as of midnight tonight, everyone will
Speaker 1: wear a mask as far as cases and spread in Colorado,
Speaker 1: really has not been nearly as bad as places that
Speaker 1: are farther south, So knock on wood, we feel a
Speaker 1: little bit lucky that way, but you know, it's it's
Speaker 1: a very big concern. It's a very big concern really
Speaker 1: no matter where you go. So professionally, you know, we
Speaker 1: have offices nationwide, so they're all in different areas and
Speaker 1: experience different levels of problems, but all in all, everybody
Speaker 1: seems to be operating well. Most of our people are
Speaker 1: operating from home. And so as you look at those headlines,
Speaker 1: both locally and nationally through an investor's lens, Scott, what
Speaker 1: does it cause you to think about? And maybe more importantly,
Speaker 1: how has your view changed over the last say, three
Speaker 1: to five weeks while we're talking long stretches of time there, Jason, Um, so, really, my,
Speaker 1: you know, the outlook really, I don't think has changed
Speaker 1: as far as an investor over the last three to
Speaker 1: five weeks. We've continued to see a slow but bumpy
Speaker 1: opening of the economy. And I think we have to
Speaker 1: remember that we've had pandemics even in this country. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe not so many in the last
Speaker 1: fifty years, but you know, I can even remember polio
Speaker 1: growing up, and and uh, you know, really the fear
Speaker 1: that that caused. We never shut the economy down ever. Ever,
Speaker 1: no matter what the pandemic was, there was never a hey,
Speaker 1: everybody go home, we're going to shut the economy. This
Speaker 1: economy wasn't broken. It wasn't broken before we started. In fact,
Speaker 1: it was really kind of on fire. We just turned
Speaker 1: it off and then what we did is applied about
Speaker 1: three trillion dollars worth of stimulus. Now we're opening it slowly,
Speaker 1: and granted we're having a tweak back a little bit.
Speaker 1: Restaurants and bars, you know, they're bearing the blunt of it.
Speaker 1: But once again, I think, you know, we've learned a
Speaker 1: lot from Asia and that is masks work, and and
Speaker 1: so you know, we have a large presence down in
Speaker 1: Texas there now mandatory masks everywhere. Obviously they they've had
Speaker 1: a bit of an outbreak. You're going to get those
Speaker 1: bumpy spreads as we try to deal with it. But ultimately,
Speaker 1: I think, you know, everybody is focused on vaccines and therapeutics.
Speaker 1: Vaccine would certainly change the outlook for everybody. As far
Speaker 1: as markets, you know, we've seen a tremendous recovery obviously
Speaker 1: sends the lows on March. Interesting. We're starting to see
Speaker 1: leadership changing. I think today's markets a great example of,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of the u UM the winners that
Speaker 1: have been here to date, uh, those those are beginning
Speaker 1: to roll over a little bit since the bottom on Marche.
Speaker 1: We've actually seen leadership in places like energy, which we're like, wow,
Speaker 1: where did that come from? Materials are strong, technology is
Speaker 1: still strong. UM. But that's kind of what you would
Speaker 1: normally think about in a recovery. You would think about
Speaker 1: kind of those cyclicals beginning to outperform. And that's that's
Speaker 1: kind of what we're seeing at this point in time,
Speaker 1: and we think it will continue for quite some time. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're pretty optimistic. It's interesting. On our planning call this morning,
Speaker 1: we were our producer Paul Brannan kind of sharing with
Speaker 1: us some of your thoughts. I mean, you think a
Speaker 1: proper recovery could materialize earlier than we think, correct, I do.
Speaker 1: I think, UM. I think generally the population, because they've
Speaker 1: been sequestered at home and properly scared out of their
Speaker 1: their their wits. I think the business cycle is different
Speaker 1: than the the safety UH concerns maybe of of the
Speaker 1: general public. And I think the business cycle is returning
Speaker 1: faster than most people would think. Um. And I think
Speaker 1: we're seeing that in the data we're seeing in retail sales.
Speaker 1: You know, we didn't get a bad number this morning
Speaker 1: and on a employment claims, but generally the employment reports
Speaker 1: since the bottom have been absolutely astonishing, I mean astonishing.
Speaker 1: So we think that probably continues. What do you mean astonishing,
Speaker 1: You mean astonishing in a bad way, you dell astonishing
Speaker 1: in a good way. We know, putting a larger number
Speaker 1: of people back to work than any of the analysts thought. Um. Now,
Speaker 1: whether that can we still have we still have seventeen
Speaker 1: point three million Americans claiming ongoing unemployment benefits and state programs.
Speaker 1: That's uncorrect. That's a lot well that is. But on
Speaker 1: the other hand, I think once again, the economy wasn't broken. Now, granted,
Speaker 1: they are going to be companies that aren't going to
Speaker 1: be able to start up, They're gonna be restaurants that
Speaker 1: will just never open. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: I think you're going to find that as factories add
Speaker 1: more shifts, as you see a global healing of the economy.
Speaker 1: And then finally, what I said before, if there is
Speaker 1: any hope for a vaccine next year, I think you're
Speaker 1: gonna see the economy recover a lot faster. You know,
Speaker 1: working from home has been surprisingly seamless for our company,
Speaker 1: something I'd never ever would have imagined, but it really
Speaker 1: has worked out well, and for a lot of companies
Speaker 1: it really has worked out well, I believe. All Right, well,
Speaker 1: we really appreciate your time, Scott, Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Scott Callier, CEO and Chief investment Officer at Advisor's Asset
Speaker 1: Management johning Us on the phone from Monument Colorado, Thanks
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