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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How aren't you welcome into a new

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Speaker 1: Year's Day? Happy New Year edition of the Daily Juice

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Speaker 1: podcast with me Matt Perrelt at Sports Talk. Matt developed

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Speaker 1: me across all socials. This podcast being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by our friends at Omaha Steaks dot Com. Today is

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Speaker 1: our last day of this sale as we roll into

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Speaker 1: the new year, the first of the year. Here Omaha

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Speaker 1: Steaks dot Com from a code It's Juice in the

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Speaker 1: search bar stage at thirty dollars off sitewide sale going

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Speaker 1: on last day for it today. New offer begins tomorrow

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Speaker 1: here for us with omah Steaks dot Com. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: this will be kind of a quick podcast. It's been.

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Speaker 1: I'm very happy to end twenty twenty four. I'm very

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Speaker 1: happy to turn the page and to get ourselves into

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Speaker 1: a different situation for a brand new year. Everything will

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Speaker 1: be changed over. Okay, so brand new site. We are

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Speaker 1: now officially done with twenty twenty three. We unfortunately are

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Speaker 1: going to end up about up eighteen units for the

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Speaker 1: year that was at a high of forty five. That's

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Speaker 1: how bad this was. I mean, we just kind of

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Speaker 1: fell apart. College football will wind up up well Depending

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Speaker 1: on how this ends up, we could wind up with

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Speaker 1: the bets for twenty twenty three but up thirteen point

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Speaker 1: seventy five units hit below sixty percent sixty and forty

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Speaker 1: one in twenty twenty three in college football that's fifty

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Speaker 1: nine percent. The NBA will end at fifty nine point

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Speaker 1: eight percent sixty four and forty three, up seventeen point

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Speaker 1: five units in that NFL will end up just a

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Speaker 1: little bit down, will end up just a little bit

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Speaker 1: down on Watchton. I think we'll probably be still profitble

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Speaker 1: in prop betting. We'll be one in three in prop betting,

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Speaker 1: so thirty nine and thirty five on prop betting, end

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Speaker 1: up fifty six and fifty two in NFL betting for

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Speaker 1: the year. NBA props wind up fifty two percent. NHL

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Speaker 1: continues to be just a little bit of a crapshoot

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Speaker 1: for us. We're down nine units in the NHL after

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Speaker 1: being way up. Had a rough start to the season there.

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Speaker 1: College basketball is down a couple of units there, fifty

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Speaker 1: four and fifty two, so we're at fifty one percent

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Speaker 1: in college basketball there. So overall, a winning year, but

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Speaker 1: not nearly as good as we could have had it

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Speaker 1: We had a really good run there, and unfortunately we

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Speaker 1: wind up profitable, but we don't wind up getting ourselves

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Speaker 1: where we were, which was up forty five units at

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Speaker 1: one point. We've given over twenty of those units back

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Speaker 1: over the last six weeks. So really tough year, really

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Speaker 1: tough end of the year. But we head to January,

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Speaker 1: new year, new slate, new start, zero and zero in

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Speaker 1: a way, we go here on a brand new Monday.

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Speaker 1: Now there is no NFL today. Why there is a

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Speaker 1: ton of college football today. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun to watch these games and see how

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Speaker 1: it all plays out. Okay, so let's start with the

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Speaker 1: Alabama Michigan game. We are already in for two units

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Speaker 1: with Alabama plus one and a half. We made this

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Speaker 1: bed a while ago. This number has not moved. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Alabama now, Well, Michigan now is two point favorites at

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Speaker 1: certain books. Okay, open up a minus two, Circa's up

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Speaker 1: minus two. Vegas is seeing action on Michigan plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half at DraftKings, plus two at Caesars now,

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Speaker 1: So there's movement on Michigan. Is that good? Well, kind

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Speaker 1: of yeah, because I think the winner of this game Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Michigan wins the National Championship, so we may wind up

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Speaker 1: losing two units on Alabama if Michigan winds up winning

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Speaker 1: this game. Now, the best case scenario is a one

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Speaker 1: point win for Michigan, obviously because we're on plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half. But let's see what happens here, because

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Speaker 1: as this game plays out, it doesn't really matter. If

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Speaker 1: Bama wins, that's great, we'll win two units. We lose

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Speaker 1: a unit on the Alabama on the Michigan future, but

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Speaker 1: we've made money. We'll be up a unit there, and

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Speaker 1: then we can hedge off of it or play off

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Speaker 1: of it for the National Championship game. Michigan wins the

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Speaker 1: game and beats Alabama, well then we're gonna wind up

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Speaker 1: getting ourselves into a pretty good spot because we've got Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the eleven to one ticket will be down down to

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Speaker 1: a nine to one ticket after Michigan if they win,

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Speaker 1: so that'll alternate a little bit. But we can probably

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Speaker 1: just let it ride with Michigan and see how we

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Speaker 1: can come back and cash it with the Michigan ticket.

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Speaker 1: So I'm pulling for Michigan here in this game. We've

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Speaker 1: already hedged off of it, but where I'm pulling for

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Speaker 1: Michigan to win. Here. The first semi final, now, that

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Speaker 1: game is at the Rose Bowl. That game is a

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Speaker 1: two o'clock Pacific time, five o'clock Eastern time kick. The

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Speaker 1: nightcap is Texas at Washington. Let's talk about that game

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Speaker 1: here in a second. Let's start with Iowa and Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: If you want to bet under for Iowa thirty six,

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Speaker 1: be my guest. Okay, I'm not going to say anything

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Speaker 1: about it. I think it's a good play, I do.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a decent move. Tennessee is without a

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Speaker 1: ton of talent here. No Joe Milton, no Jalen Right,

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Speaker 1: no Jabari Small. I mean they are down skill player

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Speaker 1: after skill player. Iowa can't score on anybody, So it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter who's playing quarterback. It doesn't matter who's playing

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Speaker 1: offense for the Hawkeyes here. If you want to play

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Speaker 1: the under, go right ahead. We bet under all season

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Speaker 1: long here for Iowa, and well, it was profitable all

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Speaker 1: season long. Iowa was eleven and two this year to

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Speaker 1: the under, nine to one over their last ten they

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Speaker 1: were six and oh to the under away from home.

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Speaker 1: So you want to bet under thirty six, go right ahead.

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Speaker 1: I will be too. But what have the bulls taught

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Speaker 1: us so far? It's been a place where favorites have

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Speaker 1: gone to die, like literally gone to die. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what to make of this. Iowas had a lot

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Speaker 1: of time to work on some stuff. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if Tennessee wants to be in this bowl game. My

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Speaker 1: gut tells me they do not. I don't think I

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Speaker 1: can bet a total in this game simply because I

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Speaker 1: think Iowa might be able to score. And if Iowa scores,

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Speaker 1: Tennessee's going to score some and we could wind up

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Speaker 1: going over and it winds up you know, twenty one

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Speaker 1: twenty final we lose, you know, twenty three seventeen, we lose.

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Speaker 1: Like it's just it's a bowl game. I can't with

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Speaker 1: good conscious play a total. But plus six to Iowa

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Speaker 1: is kind of the only thing I can really stomach here,

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Speaker 1: because I do think the unders in play. If the

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Speaker 1: unders in play, Iowa was in the game, and Iowa

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Speaker 1: could very well wind up winning this game. There were

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Speaker 1: three and three ats on the year, you know, Iowa

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Speaker 1: six to six and one this season the end of

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Speaker 1: the year, you know, on the road against Nebraska looking

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Speaker 1: pretty good. They beat Northwestern on the road on a

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Speaker 1: neutral field. They lost to Michigan in the Big Ten

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Speaker 1: title game, but that's not really any You know that

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Speaker 1: they had a full complement of players or Michigan and

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Speaker 1: a full compliment for Iowa. The only thing I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: do is here is you can play. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: can get really creative if you want. You can play

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Speaker 1: a same game teaser a six point t Iowa plus

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Speaker 1: twelve and then take the total from thirty six up

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Speaker 1: to forty one and play under. You can do that

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Speaker 1: if you want. But officially, I'm just going to come

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Speaker 1: in here with the Hawks. I'm gonna take the plus

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Speaker 1: six with Iowa, keep the game close, lose the game

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Speaker 1: by a field goal, maybe win the game outrights. You

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Speaker 1: want to take Iowa money line, and I don't hate it.

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Speaker 1: This is a bigger game to Iowa. This is a

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Speaker 1: bigger game to the Hawkeyes, and they've got their defense

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Speaker 1: ready to go against a depleted Tennessee offense. We saw

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Speaker 1: what happened with Florida State against Georgia. I don't think

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Speaker 1: to me like a blowout like that. But what does

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Speaker 1: Tennessee want to play for? Here. I don't really know.

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Speaker 1: It's a bigger game for Iowa. I'm taking the Hawks

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Speaker 1: plus six Iowa one point one units. Again, you want

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Speaker 1: to fade these bets, go right ahead. But new year,

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Speaker 1: new month, hopefully a new start in a new year

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Speaker 1: for me here when it comes to where we are

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Speaker 1: numbers wise, officially, Iowa plus six for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: Second bet, let's go to Texas and Washington. I lean

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Speaker 1: towards the over in this game. But it hasn't moved

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Speaker 1: sixty three and a half and it hasn't moved. That

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Speaker 1: scares me. This game's been up for a month, hasn't moved.

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Speaker 1: Scares me. Don't know what to make of it makes

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Speaker 1: me go, uh oh, let's stay away from the total.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a high scoring game, but it makes

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Speaker 1: me worried that these teams have had this much time,

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Speaker 1: there's been this much betting going on, and the books

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Speaker 1: haven't moved sixty three and a half. That tells me something.

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Speaker 1: It's a good number, it's the right number. Don't want

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Speaker 1: to come near it. So who wins Texas or Washington?

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Speaker 1: I have doubted Washington all year long. I have questioned,

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Speaker 1: I have doubted I have made every case for why

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Speaker 1: Washington just isn't there and Washington's not that good, And

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Speaker 1: I'm finally going to come around here and say, you

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Speaker 1: know what, I'm going to buy the undefeated team. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about this lineup. I'm gonna talk about this offense.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about Pennix Junior. I'm gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: the wide receivers, and say, you know what, Washington was

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Speaker 1: four and to ats away from home this year, Texas

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Speaker 1: was four and three. But that win over Oregon showed

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Speaker 1: me something for Washington. They can play with anybody. Texas

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Speaker 1: has been red hot. I totally get it. Their only

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Speaker 1: losses to Oklahoma and on a neutral field. Everything else

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Speaker 1: on the road neutral didn't matter, bet I with State

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Speaker 1: on the road, whipped Oklahoma State in the Big Twelve

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Speaker 1: championship game, had a great performance up against teams like

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Speaker 1: Houston and Baylor and Wyoming. The win over Alabama was enormous,

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Speaker 1: but it was Week two and Jalen Milroe was not

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Speaker 1: the same player that he is today. But I know

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Speaker 1: everyone wants the rematch of Alabama. Texas doesn't always work

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Speaker 1: out like that, does It doesn't always look as pretty

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Speaker 1: the numbers four. It's coming down. I'm gonna take Washington.

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Speaker 1: I'm finally gonna buy this team. I'm finally gonna buy

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Speaker 1: into this offense and finally gonna buy into their ability

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Speaker 1: to move the football and their ability to throw against

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Speaker 1: this secondary. For Texas, it really comes down to the

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Speaker 1: Texas secondary up against the Washington passing attack. And this

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Speaker 1: is the number one passing attack in football three hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty three yards plus per game passing for Washington.

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Speaker 1: Texas's secondary gives up two hundred and forty plus yards

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Speaker 1: per game. That is eighty fourth in the country. Not good.

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Speaker 1: They give up, you know, three hundred thirty five point

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Speaker 1: eight pass temps per game. That's one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: fifth in the country. Teams know you can throw on

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Speaker 1: Texas teams, you know, are seeing a pretty good six

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Speaker 1: point seven yards per pass play. Now that's not tremendous,

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Speaker 1: but it's still pretty good. Washington nine point two yards

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Speaker 1: per pass play, which is outstanding. And Washington will try

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Speaker 1: to run the ball, but they don't really need to.

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Speaker 1: Texas has a great run defense, but they don't have

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Speaker 1: a good pass defense. And this is where Michael Pennix

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Speaker 1: comes in. This is where these wide receivers come in.

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be the difference. Big plays

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Speaker 1: for Washington up against Texas, who are going to face

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Speaker 1: maybe an underrated Washington defense. People really and Gluing myself

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Speaker 1: have questioned this. Now, it's hard to pass on them.

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Speaker 1: Six point six yards per pass play is twenty first

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Speaker 1: best in the country. They do give up two hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty three yards per game. Yes, Texas throws for

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Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty six yards per game. That's top

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Speaker 1: twenty in the country. They run the ball really well,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty nine yards per game on the ground,

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Speaker 1: but Washington gives up one hundred and thirty three yards rushing.

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Speaker 1: Texas might have a tough time moving the football here

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Speaker 1: on Washington. I'm going to take the dog. Give me

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Speaker 1: plus four again, favorites a big hit and worked. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to go with the dog here, Washington plus four

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Speaker 1: for one point one units. All right, So Alabama Michigan,

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Speaker 1: we're on both sides. We're happy with either team that wins.

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Speaker 1: Alabama wins, that's great, that's an immediate payout. If Michigan wins,

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Speaker 1: we got to wait a week as they get up

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Speaker 1: into the National Championship game and we'll see what the

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Speaker 1: number is for that. But we'll have a live ticket

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Speaker 1: for Michigan to win the National Championship at eleven to one,

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Speaker 1: so that's great. That ticket will be live for us

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Speaker 1: there or we'll have to give it up, so that's

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Speaker 1: decent either side. Michigan Alabama doesn't matter. Iowa plus six

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Speaker 1: one point one units, Washington plus four one point one

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Speaker 1: units here today going, that's all I'm going to get

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Speaker 1: into here with college football on a New Year's Day

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Speaker 1: for today. By the way, good news on that eight

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Speaker 1: and a half win total for the Steelers. They cashed

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Speaker 1: that yesterday, so that was good to get that in.

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Speaker 1: So overall it was a two and three day on

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Speaker 1: the one unit plays in the NFL for yesterday, down

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Speaker 1: a little bit there in one in three for the

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Speaker 1: prop bets, down a little bit there. So I again

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Speaker 1: we end the year with a losing mark. We end

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Speaker 1: the month with a losing mark. I'll go and calculate

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Speaker 1: it all again here probably tomorrow if I have time

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Speaker 1: to give you the full accounting of everything. But profitable year,

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Speaker 1: just not as profitable as I wanted to be at

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Speaker 1: any stretch in the imagination here, given where we were

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Speaker 1: in mid November when we were way up, and then

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Speaker 1: from there it was just an avalanche to the end

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Speaker 1: of the year. Falling flat on my face at the

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Speaker 1: end of the year, really tough, and I mean, my gosh,

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Speaker 1: some of those that were just brutal, like some of

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Speaker 1: them were just tough to watch. And I mean the

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Speaker 1: Falcons missed their first two field goals and that was

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Speaker 1: kind of like it was dead. After that, it was bad.

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Speaker 1: Bad News had two bets riding with the Falcons yesterday

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Speaker 1: and that killed the day with the Falcons inability to

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Speaker 1: kick field goals, which is really weird. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that was the wind either. I just think I think

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Speaker 1: just to keep bad kicking woes and just kicking outdoors.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think the wind had much to do

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Speaker 1: with the ball striking and upright and then missing a

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Speaker 1: forty five plus yard field goal, and after that, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it could have been a close game, and then it

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Speaker 1: wasn't a close game. Unfortunately, we did get my teas

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Speaker 1: are right, We got that right. So yesterday it was

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Speaker 1: a one and two mark on the podcast, but the

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Speaker 1: wong teaser missed. I had plus nine on the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: They got destroyed by the Ravens. Ravens are the one seed,

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Speaker 1: Niners are the one seed. We'll see what the Ravens

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Speaker 1: look like against the Steelers next week. Steelers are gonna

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Speaker 1: need They're gonna need that game desperately. Ravens will not.

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Speaker 1: So could be a chance maybe the Ravens. Maybe the

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Speaker 1: Steelers do get to ten wins, which would be somewhat

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Speaker 1: shocking given where they were. But ten and seven will

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Speaker 1: be a hell of a year for Mike Tomlin. We'll

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Speaker 1: see how he plays out. I'll be in the Discord

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Speaker 1: channel betting pros dot COM's last chat, but officially, Alabama

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half for two units was made

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Speaker 1: a while ago, Michigan eleven to one to win the

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Speaker 1: national championship. That is still live. Iowa plus six, Washington

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Speaker 1: plus four, cross our fingers, see what happens. But it's

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Speaker 1: been a really tough Bowl season to predict here. If

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Speaker 1: you want to fade both those bets, go right ahead.

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Speaker 1: Won't insult me in the least, As Matt Parol followed

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Speaker 1: me across all socials at Sports Talk Matt every single morning.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to twenty twenty four is a Dely Juice podcast.

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Speaker 1: I was being brought to you by olmah stakes dot

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Speaker 1: com