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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on the Insiders, the influencers, the insides. Biden

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Speaker 1: had Thomas again and again he will unite the country.

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Speaker 1: Who do you think Biden has to watch in terms

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Speaker 1: of moderate defectors. Infrastructure has always been guard part offender

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Jack Fitspatrick coming

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Speaker 1: up on the show today. We talked to Bloomberg Tax

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Speaker 1: and Congress reporter Laura Davison about her big scoop on

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Speaker 1: Biden's capital gains tax increased plans. We'll get into the

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Speaker 1: Republican infrastructure counter proposal. We'll talk about the presidents and

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Speaker 1: many world leaders climate plans. We've got Kevin Walling, democratic

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Speaker 1: strategist at h G Creative Media, in a former Biden

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Speaker 1: campaign surrogate John E. Glinder and oceanographer, author and expert

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Speaker 1: on sea level rise joining us now as Bloomberg Tax

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Speaker 1: and Congress reporter Laura Davison big scoop today on President

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden's plan they're supposed to detail next week to

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Speaker 1: almost double the capital gains tax for those earning one

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Speaker 1: million dollars or more. Laura, that's big political news. I'm curious,

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Speaker 1: can you give us a sense of the economic scope

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Speaker 1: of how much money this is supposed to raise for

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Speaker 1: his next big bill that he's proposing, and how many

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Speaker 1: people would be affected by this. Yeah, so in terms

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Speaker 1: of dollars and cents, you know, this is a revenue

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Speaker 1: raiser that would clock in and you know, around three

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy billion dollars, So you know, in the

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Speaker 1: scope of a you know, north of one trillion dollar

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Speaker 1: planet he's proposing. You know, this is is just a

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Speaker 1: portion of that, but he's you know, he's layering several

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Speaker 1: other things on top of this, looking at you know,

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Speaker 1: higher rates on income as well as higher a state

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Speaker 1: tax rates, and a whole bunch of other things. So

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Speaker 1: for people um in that four hundred thousand dollars and

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Speaker 1: above category, and particularly if you're making a million dollars

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Speaker 1: or more, there are a lot of different ways that

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Speaker 1: your taxes would go up, you know, really to the

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Speaker 1: tune of collectively paying you know, a trillion or a

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Speaker 1: trillion a half more over a decade. Now, this sounds

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Speaker 1: like something that is going to get a lot of

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Speaker 1: Republican pushback. Got some push back, I guess from the markets. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they can push tax policy through Congress in a partisan way,

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Speaker 1: I believe. But if he wants to do this with

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Speaker 1: this American Famili's plan that he's supposed to outline next week,

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Speaker 1: how does the Biden side envision this actually becoming law

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Speaker 1: and getting it through Congress. So the Biden team has

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Speaker 1: been very hands off on telling Congress, you know, exactly

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Speaker 1: what to do, but Congress is very engaged on you.

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Speaker 1: They have these two proposals, the infrastructure proposal paid for

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Speaker 1: by corporate tax increases in this upcoming proposal looking at

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Speaker 1: education and uh child's care that's sort of saying paid

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Speaker 1: for by individual tax pieces, and they're looking at you know,

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Speaker 1: both timing they have, you know, a relatively short runway

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Speaker 1: to pass you know what could be you know, close

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Speaker 1: to four trillion dollars in spending, which is just massive

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Speaker 1: um as well as kind of how how much political

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Speaker 1: good will they have from their members. Democrats have really

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Speaker 1: really tight margins. So there's talk about whether they split

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Speaker 1: this up and do it in two packages, whether they

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Speaker 1: have a bipartisan proposal with some of the infrastructure elements

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Speaker 1: that everyone can get on board with, and the doing

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Speaker 1: a democratic only proposal. If if history has any guide

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Speaker 1: here Congress usually does less than does more, and they're

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Speaker 1: going to run into both some constraints both on timing

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Speaker 1: as well as just the constraints of the budget reconciliation

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Speaker 1: process to get this through, you know, by the third quarter,

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Speaker 1: which is what they're looking to do. Sure, now we've

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Speaker 1: heard pushback from Republicans to the two point to five

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Speaker 1: trillion dollar infrastructure plan, but we know Biden is planning

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Speaker 1: this next big family's plan, things that go beyond infrastructure

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Speaker 1: in the economy. If this particular portion is going to

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Speaker 1: raise a few hundred billion dollars, you say, how much

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Speaker 1: else do they need to do to pay for that?

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Speaker 1: What are the numbers we're talking about? If there is

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Speaker 1: this second major package, so the they already have come

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Speaker 1: up with more than two trillion dollars of corporate tax increases.

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Speaker 1: That first part is paid for in the second package.

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Speaker 1: They're also looking at this um. This it gets really technical,

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Speaker 1: but basically it's another big capital gains tax hike that

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Speaker 1: comes when when people die. I check the under the

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Speaker 1: current code, you can pass stuff onto your airs, and

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Speaker 1: those those capital gains don't get taxed. This would tax it.

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Speaker 1: So that would you know, add um, you know, almost

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Speaker 1: double the just raising the rate proposal. They're also looking

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Speaker 1: at raising the top income rate for those running four

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars and more up to you know about

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Speaker 1: as well as the estate tax. So all told, they

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Speaker 1: have about a trillion to a trillion and a half

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Speaker 1: dollars worth of tax increases in there. That, of course,

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Speaker 1: is means that they need to get all of this

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Speaker 1: through and they can't start negotiating and giving away a

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Speaker 1: bunch of a bunch of big packages, uh, a bunch

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Speaker 1: of big parts of this proposal without having to cut

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Speaker 1: stuff on the spending side as well. Well. I touched

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Speaker 1: on Republican pushback, but they've got such narrow margins in

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Speaker 1: the House, uh and Senate Democrats do what's the feedback

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Speaker 1: ben from both sides so far? I know this is

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Speaker 1: breaking news today, but what do what have lawmakers said

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Speaker 1: so far about this? Republicans have pammed this and said

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Speaker 1: this is a terrible idea, will kill jobs, will kill investment.

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Speaker 1: Democrats are generally more supportive of this. You know that

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Speaker 1: there's been a push from a lot of members, particularly

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Speaker 1: those that are more progressive, for several years saying that

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Speaker 1: they that work and wealth should be taxed the same

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Speaker 1: essentially what this proposal would do. The question is, how

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Speaker 1: do one sort of your your Joe Mansions, your moderate

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Speaker 1: steel about you know, such big tax increases. You know,

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Speaker 1: we see we saw a mansion on the corporate tax

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Speaker 1: rate say hey, you know, I don't want to go

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Speaker 1: all the way? What about We could see similar reactions

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Speaker 1: here with you know, some moderate saying hey, let's you know,

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Speaker 1: let's go in this direction, but let's not go as

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Speaker 1: far as you want to go to Mr President. The

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Speaker 1: other thing too, is that there are some House Democrats

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Speaker 1: who are really really upset about this thing called the

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Speaker 1: State and Local tax deduction. We're salt, and they said, look,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to vote for anything that the President

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Speaker 1: wants to do unless we get this this very valuable

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Speaker 1: tax breakback. So that's going to be a key part

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Speaker 1: of negotiations going forward. Yeah, the mansion issues and the

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Speaker 1: salt issues are definitely something to watch on the Democratic side,

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Speaker 1: as well as Republican pushback. Laura Davison, Bloomberg News Tax

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Speaker 1: and Congress reporter, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: I want to bring in now Kevin Walling, Democratic strategist

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Speaker 1: is h G. Creative Media and a former Biden campaign

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Speaker 1: surrog We also have Jeanie Schanzano Bloomberg Politics contributor, Jennie,

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Speaker 1: what do you make about the political realism of this proposal?

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Speaker 1: We can talk about economics and what this would do

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Speaker 1: to the tax code, but I'm I'm looking at this

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Speaker 1: plan and wondering if it stands any chance of becoming

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Speaker 1: law in any way that reflects what Biden is set

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Speaker 1: to announce next week. Nobody can be surprised that this

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Speaker 1: is what is under serious consideration and has been floated today.

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Speaker 1: It's long been on Joe Biden's radar. It's not really

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Speaker 1: the outright wealth tax like like Elizabeth Warren has talked about,

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Speaker 1: but it is it is approaching something that progressives can

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Speaker 1: get behind. But as you talked about, in a fifty

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Speaker 1: fifty Senate, they cannot lose one Democratic vote, and you

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Speaker 1: know that's going to be the challenge. So one thing

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Speaker 1: I would I would just offer here is you know,

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Speaker 1: you look at the states like New York and California,

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Speaker 1: which I already have high tax rates. You combine that

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Speaker 1: with this proposal if it indeed goes forward, and they're

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Speaker 1: saying New York's tax rate combined state in federal maybe

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Speaker 1: about California about fifty six fifty seven, And I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: can really Chuck Schumer pushed that through and maintain his

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Speaker 1: seat in New York. So we've got considerations like that

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Speaker 1: as well that I think make this a very very

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Speaker 1: tough thing to imagine a closely divided Senate is going

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Speaker 1: to be able to pass. So in terms of feasibility,

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Speaker 1: it's difficult. But there's a campaign aspect to this. And

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Speaker 1: if you look back at the one point nine trillion

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Speaker 1: dollar stimulus bill, the Biden administration and Democrats and Congress

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Speaker 1: talked about wanting to back up what they said on

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Speaker 1: the campaign trail. Kevin Walling, I want to bring you

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Speaker 1: in what is this plan that we're going to hear

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Speaker 1: more about next week due to follow up on the

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Speaker 1: way Joe Biden campaigned for president. Yeah, Jack, it's it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be with you. Uh. And again, this is something

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Speaker 1: that as you really point out, President Biden really campaigned

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Speaker 1: on and he really made the point uh that, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, taxing labor should be the same as taxing

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Speaker 1: gains in the financial market. So you know, I think

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Speaker 1: he's taking kind of a populous stroke as he did

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Speaker 1: during the campaign, to now deliver on some of these

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Speaker 1: promises that he made during the campaign itself. UM. And

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Speaker 1: I think he, you know, is setting it up as

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Speaker 1: kind of a cudgel. I think for two um, and

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Speaker 1: he's going to make the case and he's gonna barnstorm

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Speaker 1: a lot of these different races that were so close.

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Speaker 1: Uh and saying that we are paying for a lot

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Speaker 1: of these investments that he's going to roll out next week.

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Speaker 1: Is you ratherly point out Jack is part of this

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Speaker 1: family's part of the package on the infrastructure in jobs front,

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Speaker 1: uh and say he's gonna pay for it by raising

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Speaker 1: corporate taxes and raising taxes on the most wealthy in

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Speaker 1: this country. I think it's going to be an interesting

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Speaker 1: set up in terms of this, like I said, a

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Speaker 1: populous kind of message, um, in some of these key districts. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Genie point, Genie's point is a very good one.

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't know how well that sells. And

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Speaker 1: for example, Orange County, where we need to win back

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Speaker 1: a few of those races, or in New York State

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Speaker 1: with uh, you know, center majority, Schumert, if he can

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Speaker 1: deliver something like this, protecting his left flank against the

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Speaker 1: able to use of the world, but also the millionaires

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Speaker 1: and billionaires that are fleeing in New York in droves.

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Speaker 1: So it's gonna be an interesting way in terms of

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Speaker 1: how this is all rolled out, I think in the

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Speaker 1: in the coming days from this administration. Well, we got

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Speaker 1: a response from White House Press Secretary Jensaki at today's

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Speaker 1: briefing laying out sort of the Biden administration's justification for this.

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Speaker 1: We have sound on that. Let's play that there's a

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Speaker 1: need to invest in childcare, there's a need to invest

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Speaker 1: in early childhood education and making our kids and the

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Speaker 1: workers of the next generation more competitive, and he should

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Speaker 1: propose a way to pay for it. His view is

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Speaker 1: that that should be on the backs that can be

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Speaker 1: on the backs of the wealthiest Americans who can afford it,

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Speaker 1: and corporations and businesses who can afford it. Well, that's

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Speaker 1: it sounds like a campaign message as much as a

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Speaker 1: legislative message. Kevin, very quickly, where do you see this playing.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned a couple of examples, but in two what

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Speaker 1: are the key races where you think this particular issue

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Speaker 1: is going to be a real factor. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: and Gene is absolutely right. I mean center Schumer's up

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Speaker 1: in two years majority leader. Again, he has an interesting

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Speaker 1: set of circumstances on his on his plate in terms

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Speaker 1: of the progressive left within the New York Delegation challenging him.

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Speaker 1: So I think that is going to be primo in

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Speaker 1: terms of whether he negotiates himself out of out of

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Speaker 1: a Senate seat, potentially as the incumbent majority leader. So

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Speaker 1: that's certainly key. You have a lot of key races

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Speaker 1: in California, as I mentioned, New York State, other high

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Speaker 1: tax areas with that salt deduction. As Jennie mentioned, You've

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Speaker 1: got Tom Swazzy, for example, leading the charge in the

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Speaker 1: New York Delegation among others to push back. And again

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Speaker 1: you also are going to have a lot of members

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Speaker 1: running in new districts in those states as well um

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Speaker 1: with redistricting. So I think California and New York especially

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Speaker 1: will be all right. Coming up, Kevin, stick with us.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the Republican response to the

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Speaker 1: infrastructure proposal. That'll be another interesting issue, as well as

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Speaker 1: climate issues that came up today. For now, I'm Jack Fitzpatrick.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Sound On on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Charlie. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick, along with Bloomberg Politics

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Speaker 1: contributor Jeanie Schanzano and Kevin Walling, Democratic strategist at h

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Speaker 1: G Creative Media. In a former Biden campaign surrogate, Republican

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Speaker 1: senators coming up with a big news today proposing a

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Speaker 1: five eight six billion dollar counter offer to the President's

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Speaker 1: infrastruct your plan, which total to two and a quarter

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars UH. A lot of news from Republicans on

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Speaker 1: what they don't want to include compared to what we

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Speaker 1: see from Democrats. Let's listen to sound from Senator Pat Toomey,

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Speaker 1: Republican of Pennsylvania. While President Biden would like to do

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Speaker 1: all kinds of things that have nothing to do with infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: my view is we can have that discussion at some

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Speaker 1: point in time, but what we ought to focus on

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Speaker 1: is that which we seem to have agreement on, which

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Speaker 1: is a significant investment in infrastructure. Climate issues, in particular

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles seem to be a bit of a boogeyman

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Speaker 1: for Republicans. We also have sound from Senator John Barrasso

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Speaker 1: Republican from Wyoming. Let's play that he puts more money

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Speaker 1: in his proposal for electric vehicles than he does for

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Speaker 1: Rhodes bridges ports, airports, and waterways combined. So it's time

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Speaker 1: to say we want to do things that are really

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Speaker 1: in the best interest to the American people. With the

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Speaker 1: American people are asking for. Kevin, I want to go

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Speaker 1: to you on the politics of the climate portions in

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Speaker 1: the infrastructure package. We hear the phrase green New Deal.

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Speaker 1: We hear criticisms of electric vehicle related infrastructure and tax

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Speaker 1: credits that aren't really infrastructure. Uh. Is this a campaign

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Speaker 1: message that we're gonna hear going into two or what's

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Speaker 1: the logic behind the focus on and the divide over

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles in particular. Yeah, Jackie's a great question. I

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Speaker 1: was kind of struck by that being one of the

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Speaker 1: only specific pay for is that the Republican proposal included

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Speaker 1: in terms of attacks on new electric vehicles. Um, it's

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Speaker 1: certainly gonna be I think, obviously an issue with the

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Speaker 1: midterms coming up. Um it was interesting obviously played center

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Speaker 1: Pat Toomey's um uh comments in terms of that rollout,

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Speaker 1: I was interested to see his colleague front Pennsylvania. Bob

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Speaker 1: Casey say, um, you know almost immediately that it fails

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Speaker 1: to meet the moment that we're in. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Republicans are, you know, with their proposal maintainance says quo,

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Speaker 1: heavy emphasis on roads, traditional kind of what they have

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Speaker 1: hammered on at infrastructure, and of course it's you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty much a quarter of what the size of the

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Speaker 1: Biden jobs in the infrastructure package is. UM. So you

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Speaker 1: saw some Democrats out of the gate kind of condemning it,

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Speaker 1: pushing it aside. I'll note Chris Coons, who's obviously a

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Speaker 1: key Biden ally in the Senate, was actually encouraged to

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Speaker 1: see the Republicans come forward at least with something UM,

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Speaker 1: even if it's that small, even smaller than what President

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Speaker 1: Trump talked about at one point five trillion tild package

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Speaker 1: when he was in office. So it's interesting to see

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Speaker 1: the different elements to your question within the Democratic caucus

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Speaker 1: reacting to it. But of course it's only been out

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Speaker 1: for the past couple of hours or so, so I

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Speaker 1: think folks are still weighing what they're seeing. Yeah, we've

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Speaker 1: heard a mixed reaction from Democrats. I believe a couple

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Speaker 1: of days ago, Peter DeFazio, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman,

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Speaker 1: even said, you know, something in the six to eight

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Speaker 1: hundred billion dollar range could be at least a starting point.

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Speaker 1: But if you hear comments from Bernie Sanders, who's now

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Speaker 1: the Senate budget chairman, uh, saying the pushback from Republicans

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Speaker 1: on taxes, uh, it sounds like there's a divide among Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Genie Schanzano, I'm just trying to figure out, are we

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Speaker 1: talking about a Grand Canyon between the two parties or

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Speaker 1: a Potomac River? When you hear two point to five

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Speaker 1: trillion from Biden and then five sixties or sixty eight

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Speaker 1: billion from Republicans, Well, am I assuming that the Grand

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Speaker 1: Canyon is bigger, because that's what I would say. It

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Speaker 1: is an enormous division. And you're right that de Fazio

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Speaker 1: said he was open to it, and right he should.

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Speaker 1: Um look at there, there's very little that room to

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Speaker 1: maneuver here. So the Democrats have a couple of choices.

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Speaker 1: They either push this thing through on reconciliation and they

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Speaker 1: are gonna then have to own the fact that they

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Speaker 1: passed infrastructure in this you know, partisan way, or they

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Speaker 1: need to be willing to compromise. There's really no other

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Speaker 1: way around that. And so I think what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: out of the administration, at least in my reading, is

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Speaker 1: that they're going to try to push this through on reconciliation.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's any way around that at this

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Speaker 1: point unless they're willing again to you know, pull look

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Speaker 1: at you know, Chris Coons or something idea about splitting

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Speaker 1: this thing into two. But seems to be very little

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Speaker 1: appetite for that. And even when we talk about the

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Speaker 1: Democrats doing this on their own unilaterally, there still is.

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Speaker 1: As we were just talking about issues there, you've got

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Speaker 1: the people in my area at the northeast saying it's

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Speaker 1: a no go for Democrats there without the Salt movement

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Speaker 1: on the salt So a lot of big questions there. Well,

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Speaker 1: I gotta follow up with you, Genie. When you talk

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Speaker 1: about getting this done through reconciliation, it's such an opaque process.

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Speaker 1: How much can they actually do and what's going to

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Speaker 1: get cut out if they go the partisan route. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's going to a little bit depend on what the

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Speaker 1: parliamentarian has to say. But if they can do it

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Speaker 1: on reconciliation, looks like they will be able to do that.

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Speaker 1: There may be things they can't touch, so that would

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Speaker 1: be any thing that the parliamentary and decides doesn't fit

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Speaker 1: under a budget sort of issue, so they may have

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Speaker 1: to swallow that. But I do think that's probably the

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Speaker 1: only way they're going to be able to go if

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Speaker 1: they want to go as big as they say, that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a real challenge. And I say it's an

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Speaker 1: opaque issue because nobody actually entirely knows the answer to

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Speaker 1: that question of what they can do in a partisan way.

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Speaker 1: But that seems to be the X factor unless there's

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Speaker 1: a real Kumbaya moment in Washington with Republicans and Democrats

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Speaker 1: coming a lot closer again. Two point to five trillion

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Speaker 1: from Biden in the infrastructure proposal, uh, and then five

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Speaker 1: sixty eight billion from Republicans. Want to keep this conversation

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Speaker 1: going a little bit more on the GOP infrastructure plan,

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Speaker 1: but also get to the climate issues today. UH, that's

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Speaker 1: up next. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. This is Bloomberg. I'm still

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Speaker 1: here with Bloomberg Politics. Contributor to Jeanie Shanzano and Kevin Walling,

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Speaker 1: Democratic strategist at h G Creative media and a former

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Speaker 1: Biden campaign surrogate, Kevin. I'm looking through the list and

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Speaker 1: this isn't legislative language yet, but a Republican roadmap on

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Speaker 1: what they want to see on infrastructure, and I do

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Speaker 1: see the traditional stuff roads, bridges, transit systems. I'm curious,

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Speaker 1: what can you define for us, what do you see

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Speaker 1: as actually being the bipartisan corpus of what must definitely

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Speaker 1: end up becoming law in an infrastructure package. Yeah, Jack,

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Speaker 1: it's a great, great question. I think obviously roads and bridges.

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Speaker 1: You know, we have so many uh situations in this

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Speaker 1: country that we're falling, you know, behind in terms of

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Speaker 1: actually the safety concerns, So that's certainly an area in

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Speaker 1: which folks can come together. Also, all note, you know

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Speaker 1: you've seen some other UM motions between members, specifically like

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Speaker 1: Chris Coons John Corner of Texas UM floating different ideas

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Speaker 1: in terms of bipartisan approach. I'll note you know Senator's Carper,

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Speaker 1: my former boss from Delaware UM, the chairman of the

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Speaker 1: Environment and Public Works Committee, working across party lines at

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Speaker 1: the ranking member Shelley Moore capital on a drinking water

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Speaker 1: for example. I think that's one key area where you'll

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Speaker 1: see parties working together on those kinds of things. Safety obviously,

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Speaker 1: um port's key issue for a lot of members where

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Speaker 1: it transcends party politics, it's more regional politics. And in

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Speaker 1: terms of Republicans and Democrats working together, so roose bridges,

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Speaker 1: drinking water, all those kinds of things. I think our

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Speaker 1: avenues in which you'll see some uh, either a piecemell

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Speaker 1: approach in terms of breaking it out, bipartisan approach, or

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Speaker 1: you know, pushing in some kind of core capacity together.

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Speaker 1: And well, I've still got you here. I know that

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Speaker 1: there's been a development, I guess, an evolution on infrastructure

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Speaker 1: which makes me wonder about an urban rural divide. Broadband infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: I should say, is a real issue in a lot

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Speaker 1: of rural areas. But of course we've heard Republicans saying, look,

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Speaker 1: we don't want to spend a lot of money on Amtrak.

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Speaker 1: Is this an issue where urban and rural America is

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Speaker 1: kind of politically pitted against each other or is there

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Speaker 1: a lot of middle ground in that regard? Yes, Jack,

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Speaker 1: I actually think you're right in terms of that that

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Speaker 1: approach it might boil down to less. You know, what's

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Speaker 1: the initial behind people's names and where do they actually

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Speaker 1: come from. UM, and we know, you know, living in

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Speaker 1: a in a COVID world, how important broadband is, especially

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Speaker 1: in rural areas. So that might be a uniting factor.

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Speaker 1: There's sixty five billion or so for broadband in the

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Speaker 1: Republican proposal, about a hundred or so billion in President

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Speaker 1: Biden's proposal. So I think the Act would obviously be

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Speaker 1: some point of of agreement. Uh, and just kind of

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Speaker 1: negotiating around the edges for sure, Guys, I need to

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Speaker 1: bring up the other big news of the day. It

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Speaker 1: wasn't just capital gains taxes, It wasn't just the Republican

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Speaker 1: response on infrastructure, Uh, the climate Virtual Climate Summit. Big

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Speaker 1: headline news from that is Biden's promise that the US

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Speaker 1: will cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by There

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Speaker 1: are also questions about what does China do, what does

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Speaker 1: India do? What is the rest of the world. Uh,

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Speaker 1: do we have some sound I'd like to tee up

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Speaker 1: from President Biden. Let's play his words on the emissions

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Speaker 1: targets by maintaining those investments and putting these people to work.

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Speaker 1: The United States sets out on the road to cut

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Speaker 1: a greenhouse gases in half in half by the end

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Speaker 1: of this decade. And you also kind of framed this

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Speaker 1: as a jobs bill. Let's play that as well. Those

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Speaker 1: that do take action and make bold investments in their

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Speaker 1: people and clean energy future, well win the good jobs

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Speaker 1: tomorrow and make their economies more resilient and more competitive. Kevin,

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Speaker 1: what all I've got you here for this segment? I

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Speaker 1: want to ask, is this framing in response to twenty

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Speaker 1: six teens? You know, I remember Trump campaigning on working

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Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh and not Paris. How how have the politics

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Speaker 1: of these issues changed the past few years of at all? Yeah, Jack,

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Speaker 1: I think absolutely right. Of course, as you you know

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Speaker 1: reported on just a few weeks ago, Biden travel to

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh to announce that we were rejoining parish and framing

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Speaker 1: it through that job's perspective. Um and obvious super encouraged

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Speaker 1: to see, you know, the President show some real strong leadership.

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Speaker 1: You brought forty UM countries together, including some of our

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Speaker 1: not so great allies at the moment in terms of

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Speaker 1: the competition factor with China and certainly the the situation

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Speaker 1: with Russia. UM. And I think it's a really smart

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Speaker 1: narrative and lens Um that this administration is talking about

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Speaker 1: the climate crisis, and he called it an existential crisis

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Speaker 1: of our time this morning from the East Room, framing

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Speaker 1: it as not a job's versus climate, but a jobs

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Speaker 1: and climate, and encouraging world leaders to think about it

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Speaker 1: in that way, in almost a global competition for the

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Speaker 1: jobs of the future. I think that's going to be

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Speaker 1: a really strong argument, not just setting in potentially the

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Speaker 1: real act, but also for the sake of our our planet.

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Speaker 1: On on Earth Day, Jeanie Schanzano, I want to ask

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Speaker 1: you you understand how how how promises become law. One

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Speaker 1: of the promises that the White House laid out today

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Speaker 1: was basically doubling financial aid to develop developing nations from

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Speaker 1: the US. Maybe there's some flexibility there, but in terms

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Speaker 1: of financial commitments very quickly, how much can a president

431
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 1: do on his own or how much does Congress need

432
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 1: to step in When it comes to the financial aspect.

433
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: It is almost a congress right. They have the power

434
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: of the purse. So presidents can make promises all they want,

435
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: but to get them delivered takes going through Congress, and

436
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 1: that is the rub and the frustration for all presidents.

437
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 1: So that is one of those things he will not

438
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: be able to do unilaterally. Coming up, we're gonna have

439
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 1: John Englander, who's an ocean ographer, an author, expert on

440
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: sea level rise, talk to us. His latest book is

441
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: Moving to Higher Ground. It seems like there's a lot

442
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: of work left to to see from the President in

443
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: termining today's promises into reality, a real international aspect of

444
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: that as well. So we're gonna keep this conversation going

445
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: on the climate issues with John Englander and Kevin Thank

446
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. I was Kevin Walling,

447
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: democratic strategist at h G Creative Media and a former

448
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 1: Biden campaign surrogate. We'll get to the conversation with John Englander,

449
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: and Genie is sticking with me. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. This

450
00:24:43,960 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: is Bloomberd. This is Bloomberg Sound On on Bloomberg Radio.

451
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 1: I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. I'm here with Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Schanzano.

452
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 1: We've also got a guest joining us, John england Er,

453
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: an oceanographer, author, an expert on sea level rise. His

454
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: latest book is Moving to Higher Ground. John, thanks so

455
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 1: much for joining us. I've got to ask the big

456
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 1: broad question when you heard the US promises about cutting

457
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,120
Speaker 1: greenhouse gas emissions in half by and heard what other

458
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: countries had to say, my simple question is is this enough?

459
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: It's not enough, but it's a great start and we

460
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: should applaud the progress, but it's not going to solve

461
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 1: the problem. When we talk about enough, a lot of

462
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: this conversation has been about a one point five celsius

463
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 1: degree increase or a two degree celsius increase. Can you

464
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: give us a little bit of just the scope, uh,

465
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 1: if we were to stay on the track we're on. Now,

466
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 1: what are the numbers we're talking about and what do

467
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: those numbers mean? Well, okay, we've already had one degree

468
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: celsius of warming, and for simplicity, let's double it for

469
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: fahrenheit for Americans, so we've already had that. To keep

470
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: it to another degree, the two degrees total would be

471
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 1: doubling the warming we've already had. And we're already seeing

472
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 1: the effects of warming all over the planet, from wildfires

473
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: to melting ice sheets, high temperatures, heavier rainfall, etcetera. So

474
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 1: it's like any problem, you've got to take a stab

475
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:49,479
Speaker 1: at it and reducing the uh temperature um, you know,

476
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 1: the trajectory we're on is really important, and I want

477
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,360
Speaker 1: to applaud what was done today, but that's still warming.

478
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: They're what they're talking about is reducing the warming by

479
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: reduce see the emissions to half of what they are currently.

480
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: That would be half the increased in warming. And John

481
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 1: um I noticed that Scientific America and others have moved

482
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: from talking as we used to about climate change and

483
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: climate crisis to now a climate emergency, and you know,

484
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: I thought that was really important because part of this,

485
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: I think is changing people's hearts and minds about what

486
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: what is trying to be done. You know, you not

487
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: that it may not be enough, but it's still a

488
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 1: big societal transformation. So can you just talk a little

489
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 1: bit about why this is an emergency and what the

490
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: impact is going to be on things like refugees and

491
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: others if we don't change things fast? Sure, I mean against.

492
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: We can look at wildfires as one metric because in

493
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 1: the hotter world, with drier timber and warmer temperatures, we're

494
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 1: going to see greater wildfires. And we've seen that all

495
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 1: over the world, from California to Australia to China to Siberia.

496
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: In the last two years, terrible wildfires, unprecedented, So that's

497
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 1: one one extreme. We're seeing strange weather patterns, extreme storms,

498
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: even the snowfall in Texas is all part of weather

499
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: destabilization as the Arctic ice cap melts and with warmer temperatures,

500
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 1: so the heat waves, the heavier rainfall and route. Strangely enough,

501
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: um all come on a warmer planet. And then my

502
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 1: topic is rising sea level which comes from the ice

503
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 1: sheets on Greenland and Antarctica melting, and that's just going

504
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 1: to continue in a warmer world. So as you say,

505
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: refugees will will be a problem as people abandon low

506
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: lying areas all over the world. And one thing I

507
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 1: just wanted to follow up really quickly because I know

508
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: this is your area. I understand that if rapid action

509
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: isn't taken, they are talking about two to three million

510
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 1: refugees in Southeast Asia as a result as a result

511
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: of these rising sea levels. By is that what what

512
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: you're seeing ahead, Well, it's really hard to come up

513
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: with a number, whether it's two hundred or three million.

514
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: I mean, there's different ways of calculating that based on

515
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: what happens to the local economy, the infrastructure, the global supply, Chaine, etcetera.

516
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: It's a UM, it's kind of like predicting the pandemic,

517
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: you know at the moment which we're we're in't just

518
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: seeing the difficulties to project where there's a lot of

519
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: variables and a lot of UM, a lot of unknowns

520
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: actually and uh. But even if it's only a hundred

521
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: million people by mid centuries, as you say, I mean,

522
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: and it's not just Southeast Asia, I mean Bangladesh, Vietnam,

523
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: I'm sure, India, but part of Shanghai, uh, and of

524
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 1: course parts of America. It's all it's coastal, low lying

525
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: cities all over the world. I like to say that

526
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: there's ten thousand coastal communities that are exposed to rising

527
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: sea level. So I know it's obvious why there's so

528
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 1: much discussion about the humanitarian aspect of risk to day

529
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: to day p people. But I do have to ask,

530
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: especially with a scientist on uh, not asking a general

531
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: or a lieutenant, but a scientist, about the national security

532
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: aspect of this. If I want to sign up to

533
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: take a cruise through the Northwest Pack passage, I think

534
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: that's something I can do now. And there seems to

535
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: be concerned, especially here in the US, that if Russia

536
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: wants to have free movement around the Arctic, that's an

537
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 1: increasing concern. Uh, in less of humanitarian sense, more of

538
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: a military sense. John, do you, as a scientist have

539
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: a warning on what the repercussions are? Yeah, thanks for asking. Jack.

540
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: You know, the last year or so, the world struggled

541
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: with a million refugees from Africa coming across the Mediterranean

542
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: into ports like Italy and Greece and so on, and

543
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: and that kind of dislocation. And we of course have

544
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: our own problem at the borders in the United States.

545
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: But as you point out, if sea level rises just

546
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: a meter about three feet, there are going to be

547
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: tens of millions of refugees. It has huge destabilization, economic impacts,

548
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: humanitarian concerns, but national security. Uh. Now, I've got to

549
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: ask an overarching question after the tone we heard from Biden, uh,

550
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: in the emphasis that the US has seemed to place

551
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: on positioning itself as a leader on climate change after

552
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: the Trump administration. Uh. You know, we cover the issues

553
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: on tax incentives, on regulations, on spending, but there seem

554
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: to be so much of a focus on reclaiming a

555
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: moral high ground. Politically, is there a tangential advantage to

556
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: the Biden administration that you see in making moral arguments

557
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 1: like this, what's the effect of that? Well? Actually, well,

558
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: I appreciate the question. I actually purposely stay out of

559
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,479
Speaker 1: politics and morality arguments only because that that's so fraught

560
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: with different opinions. I like to stay as a as

561
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: a scientist, I like to stay on solid ground and

562
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 1: stick with the simplest issues. That sea level moves up

563
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: and down tens or hundreds of feet. Actually in geologic history,

564
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: we are now facing the prospect of five or ten

565
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: ft of seal ol eyes this century. And if if

566
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: we don't, you know, um get things right. And certainly

567
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: what we heard today is a big step in the

568
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: right direction. Let's be clear. But to your opening question,

569
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: even if we cut our greenhouse gas emissions in half

570
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: by twenty thirty, that does not stop the warming. It

571
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: slows the warming. And right now the ice sheets in

572
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 1: Greenland and Antarctica are melting faster and faster, and melting

573
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: the ice sheets means sea level is gonna rise, and

574
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: that's going to take away real estate all over the

575
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: world in coastal areas. So John, I know you said

576
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: you want to stay out of politics, and um, I

577
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: wonder if you would just allow me to ask you

578
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: this question. If you were advising the president, or indeed

579
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: became president yourself, what would you like to see happen?

580
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: What would you like the Biden administration or any administration

581
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: to do at this point, given where we are today,

582
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: I think we need to do three things. We need

583
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 1: to do things like we saw today or heard today

584
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: about slowing the reduction of greenhouse gases, slowing the warming

585
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: by using various economic concentives, frankly pricing carbon and carbon

586
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: dioxide or greenhouse gases one way or another. The second

587
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: thing is, even while we're doing that, we need to

588
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 1: be more resilient. We need to plan for everything from wildfires,

589
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: too heavy rainfall, two droughts, um the kind of extreme

590
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: weather we're getting. That's resiliency and that has to happen

591
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: at the same time. And the third thing we have

592
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: to do simultaneously with the first two is to begin

593
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: adapting for certain things like rising sea level. There is

594
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: no scenario that has a stopping sea level where it

595
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: presently is. We've gotten fulled because sea level hasn't changed

596
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: in six thousand years and Um, so I believe we

597
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: have to be sustainable with energy, we have to be

598
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: resilient in our planning for the near term, and we

599
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: have to begin adaptation in advance of things like C

600
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: level rise, which are going to happen at least to

601
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: some degree. John, it's a close I've got a hope,

602
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,439
Speaker 1: a fairly quick one for you. How much of your

603
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: you know, you say we're not on track to we're

604
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: only on track to try to cut the increase. How

605
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: much of your concerns are the numbers from the US?

606
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 1: How much is this due to what we see from

607
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: China or India? Which areas in which economies are the

608
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,919
Speaker 1: ones that are the most concerning to you? Well, Jack,

609
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: you've you've named the top three, which is great, certainly

610
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 1: the United States, China and in the ear the big

611
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: three contributors. Um. But this has to be something tackled

612
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 1: by the two nations of the world, of course, but

613
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 1: it starts with leadership. So so, um, the question of

614
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: whether the US put most of the load in and

615
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: the in the last fifty years, and whether China is

616
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: doing at this decade. That's the kind of thing the

617
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 1: politicians or or you know, experts can argue about what

618
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: we can applaud is that they all got to the

619
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: table today, forty major nations, including the U. S and China,

620
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 1: taking leadership roles and saying we have to tackle this

621
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 1: emergency now. John Englander, I almost succeeded in getting a

622
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: scientist to jump head first into the political debate. Thank

623
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. John Englander as an oceanographer, author,

624
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 1: expert on sea level rise and his latest book is

625
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: Moving to Higher Ground. Uh. Real good insights on on

626
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: the scientific aspects and Genie's I think you asked some

627
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: very good questions, uh that that touch on the political

628
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 1: aspects here. Uh. Big day in news, capital gains, tax increase,

629
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: Republican response on infrastructure that will be a big story

630
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: going forward. Uh, and major major global action and con

631
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 1: versation at least on climate change. Thank you again to

632
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 1: John Englander, Jeanie Schanzano, Laura Davison earlier, and Kevin Walling.

633
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 1: That's it for me. That's our our show today. I'm

634
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: Jack Fitzpatrick. This is Bloomberg