Speaker 1: The volume. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at
Speaker 1: the volume heavy Friday, everybody hopefull you guys are having
Speaker 1: a great end of your week. We are continuing our
Speaker 1: season preview series today with the Northwest Division, so that's
Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Minnesota Timberwolves,
Speaker 1: the Portland Trailblazers, and the Utah Jazz. We're gonna be
Speaker 1: touching on all five of those teams today. You guys
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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So we're starting with
Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets today. A little quick recap of their offseason.
Speaker 1: They lost Vlaco Konsar, They lost DeAndre Jordan, Michael Porter, Junior,
Speaker 1: Dario Sarich, and Russell Westbrook. They added Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway, Junior,
Speaker 1: Bruce Brown, Jonas Valenschiunis, and essentially adding Deron Holmes who's
Speaker 1: coming back from an achilles tear, a guy who was
Speaker 1: drafted in the first round last year but got hurt
Speaker 1: in training camp, I believe, or either right before training camp,
Speaker 1: but he's gonna be coming back this season. Then another
Speaker 1: guy they added this summer that I'm gonna have my
Speaker 1: eye on is Kessler Edwards. I'll have to compete for
Speaker 1: a roster spot. But his per thirty six numbers were
Speaker 1: pretty impressive last season. In addition to being a big,
Speaker 1: physical perimeter athlete, he averaged ten points and seven rebounds
Speaker 1: per thirty six minutes with a two point five to
Speaker 1: one and assist to turnover ratio. Shot fifty percent from
Speaker 1: the field forty one percent from three ninety two percent
Speaker 1: from the line, so fifty to forty ninety A good
Speaker 1: playmaker relative to most role players in that type of slot.
Speaker 1: Two point three stocks per thirty six minutes. Another guy
Speaker 1: that I think has a decent chance to impress in Nuggets'
Speaker 1: training camp, So no way to look at this as
Speaker 1: anything other than a massive influx of talent. I have
Speaker 1: issues with the guy like Jonas Valancunis in a starting role,
Speaker 1: but he's unquestionably a substantial upgrade from DeAndre Jordan as
Speaker 1: a backup center. Cam Johnson is a better player than MPJ,
Speaker 1: but I also think he's a better fit than MPJ
Speaker 1: in this phase of the Nuggets contention window, which will
Speaker 1: dive deeper into here in a minute. It won't be
Speaker 1: hard for Deron Holmes to be better than Dario Sarach was,
Speaker 1: and I think that the combination of Bruce Brown and
Speaker 1: Tim Hardaway Junior is a big step up from Russell
Speaker 1: Westbrook coming off. So this is quite simply the best
Speaker 1: roster that Nikola Joka just had to work with in
Speaker 1: his entire NBA career, and it's a big part of
Speaker 1: why I'm so high on the Nuggets coming into this
Speaker 1: particular season. Let's start with the Cam Johnson fit. We've
Speaker 1: talked about this plenty over the summer, but i'll go
Speaker 1: over quickly again here. I think Cam represents an upgrade
Speaker 1: over MPG in two clear areas that I think will
Speaker 1: help the Nuggets on both ends of the floor. First
Speaker 1: is the fact that he's just a much better ball
Speaker 1: handler than Michael Porter Junior. The lack of reliable ball
Speaker 1: handling outside of guys like Jamal Murray and a little
Speaker 1: bit of Aaron Gordon was a big part of why
Speaker 1: Denver had to take high risk options like Russell Westbrook
Speaker 1: or leaning a lot on a young Julian Strawther. Now
Speaker 1: Mike Coel Porter Junior could scale up his offense a bit,
Speaker 1: as we've talked about over the years, especially versus lower
Speaker 1: level competition, but mostly in handoffs, and again that had
Speaker 1: some limitations as you went against the higher level teams
Speaker 1: in the league. I think Cam Johnson is just a
Speaker 1: much better ball handler than Mike. He should be able
Speaker 1: to actually run action both with Jokic and without Jokich
Speaker 1: on the floor. I also like this in the context
Speaker 1: of Tim Hardaway Junior, who should be able to come
Speaker 1: in and run many of those same dribble handoff actions
Speaker 1: that Michael Porter Junior ran with nikolea Jokic. In short,
Speaker 1: the team has substantially more offensive firepower. Now, if you,
Speaker 1: as a Nuggets fan, are worried about the catch and
Speaker 1: shoot side of the catch and shoot side of things, yes,
Speaker 1: Michael Porter Junior was taller. I'd argue at like pure
Speaker 1: stand still shooting because of his height and the slight
Speaker 1: increase in percentage, he's a little better than Cam Johnson there,
Speaker 1: but it doesn't really manifest much in the percentages. Cam
Speaker 1: was forty percent on catch and shoot threes last year,
Speaker 1: so was Michael Porter Junior. Cam was forty four percent
Speaker 1: on unguarded catch and shoot threes. Michael Porter Junior was
Speaker 1: forty five percent. So not much of a statistical difference there,
Speaker 1: even though we can admit that Michael Porter Junior is
Speaker 1: probably a little better just because of his size and
Speaker 1: that specific side of things. The second piece here is
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor. In last year's version
Speaker 1: of the team, Christian Brown was their primary point of
Speaker 1: attack defender, and then if they ran into a situation
Speaker 1: where they needed to guard another perimeter player that would
Speaker 1: handle the ball, or if it was a bigger forward
Speaker 1: that was handling the ball, they would have to deploy
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon there. They had no choice because Michael Porter
Speaker 1: Junior is not a good perimeter defender. When Michael Porter
Speaker 1: Junior is locked in, he can be a solid weak
Speaker 1: side defender. He could protect the rim a little bit.
Speaker 1: He's a solid defensive rebounder, but he can't guard on
Speaker 1: the perimeter. I'm not saying that needing to deploy Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon on the perimeter is the reason he got hurt,
Speaker 1: but at this phase in his career, with the mileage
Speaker 1: that Aaron has on his body, I'd prefer to not
Speaker 1: ask him to do that as much. Certain matchups like Lebron,
Speaker 1: James Kawhi Leonard, some guys that might be too strong
Speaker 1: for Cam. Sure, but I think Cam is a perfectly
Speaker 1: fine option to be your secondary point of attack defender
Speaker 1: behind Christian Brown. That should allow you to keep Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon in helpside more, keep him rotating at the rim,
Speaker 1: keep him there for defensive rebounding. Aaron Gordon had a
Speaker 1: little bit of a drop off in his rebounding last year.
Speaker 1: Wasn't just injuries. A lot of it has to do
Speaker 1: with how often he had to be deployed on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: I just think that that's a better all around foundation
Speaker 1: for Denver's defense in general. I just think Km's a
Speaker 1: better player than Michael Porter Junior, but he also is
Speaker 1: a better option on both sides of the floor for
Speaker 1: this phase of where Denver is in their title contention
Speaker 1: with Jonis Valentcunis. The big thing I'm looking for is
Speaker 1: scheme consistency. In years past, Denver would go small when
Speaker 1: Yokich was off the floor much of the time. They
Speaker 1: tried centers, obviously with to no avail, but they would
Speaker 1: mostly go small and they do more switching on defense,
Speaker 1: and Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray would mostly go matchup hunting,
Speaker 1: and frankly, it just didn't work in the large sample.
Speaker 1: They didn't really have any other option though, and that's
Speaker 1: really the big difference here. They didn't have any options
Speaker 1: that they could go to other than that going small, switching,
Speaker 1: attempting to pick teams apart through matchup hunting with Gordon
Speaker 1: and with Murray. Having yonas will allow them to play
Speaker 1: a very similar style on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: To the way they played with Nikolea Jokic right dribil
Speaker 1: Handoff's two man game with Jamal Murray. Yonis can pick
Speaker 1: and pop a little bit. Yonis can play out of
Speaker 1: the post, especially against favorable matchups. No, he can't do
Speaker 1: any of that stuff as well as Jokic can, That's
Speaker 1: not what I'm trying to say. But against inferior NBA
Speaker 1: talent that's coming off the bench for teams, he can
Speaker 1: be reasonably effective there, and it allows you to continue
Speaker 1: to run the same things that you're running. Even on defense.
Speaker 1: You can continue to run your higher drop coverage, perhaps
Speaker 1: with a guy like Deron Holmes operating on the back
Speaker 1: line behind Yonas when he has to come up to
Speaker 1: the level. It's not necessarily about winning those minutes with
Speaker 1: Nikole Jokic off the floor. It's just about not hemorrhaging
Speaker 1: points the way they had been last year. Once again,
Speaker 1: Denver lost ten points per one hundred possession when yokich
Speaker 1: was off the floor. That's just that's gonna make it
Speaker 1: really difficult to win basketball games in the playoffs. In
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty three possessions with Yokich off, they
Speaker 1: lost by thirty one point one points per one hundred possessions.
Speaker 1: That is devastating to you, to your chances. Despite this,
Speaker 1: they pushed OKC to seven and might have won if
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon didn't get hurt. To be clear, it's not
Speaker 1: just about Yonas either. I want to be clear as
Speaker 1: you kind of look down the roster. To me, it's
Speaker 1: about everything. It's about having Bruce Brown, it's about having
Speaker 1: Tim Hardaway Junior. It's about having Yonas Valanciunas. It's about
Speaker 1: having options. I once had someone tell me money doesn't
Speaker 1: give you happiness, but it gives you options. And I
Speaker 1: felt that personally last week when we were moving up
Speaker 1: here to Denver. We were doing our last phase of
Speaker 1: our move. It was a three phase move, and we
Speaker 1: got a trailer and we were driving it up through
Speaker 1: up Interseate twenty five and we hit Albuquerque and rush
Speaker 1: hour traffic in the morning, and literally I blew a
Speaker 1: tire on my truck and I was able to get
Speaker 1: a tow truck and I was able to get a
Speaker 1: couple of tires and get back on the road. I
Speaker 1: remember when I was much younger, my wife and I
Speaker 1: were moving from Charlotte to Tucson, and we had all
Speaker 1: of our stuff loaded up in two cars, and we
Speaker 1: had our dogs with us, and it was a twenty
Speaker 1: eight hour drive, and we were so broke. We literally
Speaker 1: couldn't afford a hotel, like literally because of the dogs
Speaker 1: and knowing that if you wanted to get a place
Speaker 1: that would allow dogs or that would charge a dog fee,
Speaker 1: it was going to be like three or four hundred
Speaker 1: bucks for us to spend the night. We couldn't afford it.
Speaker 1: And so we pushed through the night and it was
Speaker 1: terrifying and I probably shouldn't have done it, and we
Speaker 1: damn near got ourselves killed driving through West Texas in
Speaker 1: the middle of the night, as I'm damn near falling
Speaker 1: asleep on the road. I didn't have options then, whereas
Speaker 1: something far worse happened driving up pulling a trailer, But
Speaker 1: I had options. I was able to get a tow truck.
Speaker 1: I was able to get the tires. I was able
Speaker 1: to get us back on the road. In the past
Speaker 1: for the Nuggets, when they would be watching the wheels
Speaker 1: come off, quite literally, David Adelman would look at the
Speaker 1: end of the bench and he wouldn't have those options, right,
Speaker 1: He wouldn't have this player that can go out there
Speaker 1: and patch the holes that could make things work in
Speaker 1: those units when Yokic was off the floor. This is
Speaker 1: what I mean when I say going beyond just yonis
Speaker 1: so for instance, like one of the things that Mike
Speaker 1: Malone would also do over the years is he'd be like, well,
Speaker 1: I'm just going to stagger the starters more in with
Speaker 1: the bench unit and just have Yokic carrier. Inferior units
Speaker 1: have much more flexibility to do that now because I
Speaker 1: know that Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Junior can score
Speaker 1: with Nikola Jokic. I know that those guys Bruce Brown
Speaker 1: can run regular pick and roll and inverted pick and
Speaker 1: roll slipping out of it with Jokic, Tim Hardaway Junior
Speaker 1: can run many of the same dribble handoff actions that
Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic ran with Michael Porter Junior. They have the
Speaker 1: options now to put more of their talent. They could
Speaker 1: run Cam Johnson, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon with Jonas Valanciunis,
Speaker 1: or in a bench group with Gordon at center and
Speaker 1: have more talent on the floor during those units wellout
Speaker 1: having to wear everybody out in the past, they have
Speaker 1: to push minutes to do that. In general, this depth,
Speaker 1: it gives them options. It gives them the ability to
Speaker 1: commit more to the defensive end throughout the entirety of
Speaker 1: the regular season because of the just the ability to
Speaker 1: keep everybody's minutes down and ask people to do more
Speaker 1: game to game, they have so much more in the
Speaker 1: way of options. He's looking at his hand of cards
Speaker 1: and he has like three or four different ways that
Speaker 1: he can try to attack the situation. That did not
Speaker 1: used to be the case. And again, it's not about
Speaker 1: winning necessarily those minutes, but maybe losing the Yokichov minutes
Speaker 1: by one or two points per one hundred possessions instead
Speaker 1: of by ten to fifteen points. That could massively improve
Speaker 1: their chances both night tonight in the regular season and
Speaker 1: when they get to the playoffs. As for the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor, I thought last year was a
Speaker 1: good example of them straight up switching, like flipping the
Speaker 1: switch right. It's a concept that's very dangerous. It's a
Speaker 1: concept that has burned veteran teams over the years, but
Speaker 1: it has worked a few times in NBA history, and
Speaker 1: it usually is teams that have won championships in the past.
Speaker 1: To be clear, the Nuggets did not lose because of
Speaker 1: their defense. They guarded Oklahoma City about as well as
Speaker 1: they possibly could have a combination of having some high
Speaker 1: end defensive personnel like Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown, they're
Speaker 1: weaker defenders. Nicole Jokic and Jamal Murray both have very
Speaker 1: high IQs, which allows them to scale up in those
Speaker 1: situations just by being in the right spots as part
Speaker 1: of the game plan. And credit to David Adelman. I
Speaker 1: thought he did an excellent job of keeping Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: off balance by constantly mixing up coverages and using a
Speaker 1: lot of zone. But they were a brutal regular season defense.
Speaker 1: This year, I expect them to be closer to that
Speaker 1: twelve to fifteen range. One because of depth. Like we
Speaker 1: just mentioned, more good players means less of a necessity
Speaker 1: to conserve energy night to night throughout the season because
Speaker 1: you can keep people's minutes down, you know you got
Speaker 1: enough good players to do it. And then two belief.
Speaker 1: I think this team's going to go into training camp
Speaker 1: feeling like they have the opportunity of a lifetime to
Speaker 1: hoist the trophy again this year. That should lead to
Speaker 1: more buy in throughout the season. I think this is
Speaker 1: the best team in the league. I think Jokic is
Speaker 1: a substantially better player than Shake Gildas Alexander. I think
Speaker 1: this roster is tailor made to his strengths. I think
Speaker 1: if they can stay healthy, if they can get anything
Speaker 1: close to the Jamal Murray they had in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win the trophy. They have their vulnerabilities,
Speaker 1: especially against the second tier teams in the West, like
Speaker 1: Minnesota has given issues because of their center rotation, the
Speaker 1: Lakers because of Luka Doncicz Luca can cause some problems
Speaker 1: for their pick and roll defense. But I still think
Speaker 1: they're better than both of those teams, and I think
Speaker 1: they match up really well with Oklahoma City, so they're
Speaker 1: might pick to win the title this year. We'll get
Speaker 1: into the actual contender rankings the week after we finish
Speaker 1: our season previews. Today's show is brought to you by
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Speaker 1: or Virginia. Moving on to Oklahoma City Thunder. So, to
Speaker 1: be clear, right off the top, I'm picking Denver to
Speaker 1: win the title. But this isn't like a Denver with
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City way down here. The gap is very small
Speaker 1: to me. If anything, I'd say they're on the same tier.
Speaker 1: I just would pick Denver to beat Oklahoma City in
Speaker 1: a series quick off season recap, they're basically the same team,
Speaker 1: plus nikoloatopicch is coming back from an injury that caused
Speaker 1: him to miss all of last year. I actually think
Speaker 1: Topics could end up having like a decent sized role
Speaker 1: on this team, because, as Indiana kind of exposed last year,
Speaker 1: they do have a little bit of a ball handling deficit,
Speaker 1: and I think they could use someone to help them
Speaker 1: run their offense. For stretches help with some advantage creation,
Speaker 1: especially when Shay is off the floor, so I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised if he plays quite a bit this year.
Speaker 1: The story of the Thunder is going to be internal
Speaker 1: improvement in this season. It's been an arms race in
Speaker 1: the Western Conference all summer. The Nuggets added a bunch
Speaker 1: of talent. We just covered that. The Lakers are getting
Speaker 1: a better version of Luca and a massive upgrade at center.
Speaker 1: The Rockets. Obviously they lose Fred van Vliet, but if
Speaker 1: they can pull off a trade for a guard, they'll
Speaker 1: be a top tier contender. The Clippers added a bunch
Speaker 1: of depth. We covered that the other day. The Warriors,
Speaker 1: if they get Horford, will be better. We covered that
Speaker 1: the other day the MAVs will be a pain in
Speaker 1: the ass after being out of the equation last year.
Speaker 1: The Spurs will likely join the mix in the Thunder. Rightfully,
Speaker 1: for the record, they stood pat so if they're going
Speaker 1: to keep up, they need internal improvements. Last year's Thunder
Speaker 1: would lose to this year's Nuggets in my opinion. I mean, hell,
Speaker 1: last year's Thunder damn near lost to last year's Nuggets, right,
Speaker 1: So what does that internal improvement look like for Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City to maintain the gap between them and the rest
Speaker 1: of the league as they get better around them. First
Speaker 1: and foremost, Shay's game management. She had a remarkable regular
Speaker 1: season statistically, but his efficiency plummeted in the postseason, and
Speaker 1: I thought his inconsistent game management was a big part
Speaker 1: of how they had such an up and down postseason run.
Speaker 1: Some nights he'd come out and do a great job
Speaker 1: of setting up his teammates and looking for advantages, picking
Speaker 1: his spots as a score and keeping everybody in rhythm.
Speaker 1: And another Knights, he'd come out gunning, and he'd take
Speaker 1: the team out of rhythm. The stats here, we're insane.
Speaker 1: When the Thunder won in the postseason, they had a
Speaker 1: one to twenty offensive rating. When they lost in the postseason,
Speaker 1: they had a one to ozh three offensive rating out
Speaker 1: of the sixteen playoff teams. If you took all their
Speaker 1: offensive ratings just in losses, that ranked eleventh out of
Speaker 1: the sixteen teams. In short, their offense was awesome when
Speaker 1: they won and legitimately terrible when they lost. Now two
Speaker 1: Shay's credit. Every time the shit hit the fan and
Speaker 1: the Thunder found themselves in like a must win situation.
Speaker 1: I thought he managed those games extremely well and he
Speaker 1: got the job done. That's the beauty of everything that
Speaker 1: happened with the Thunder last year. In many ways, they
Speaker 1: showed the warts of their youth and won anyway. And
Speaker 1: that's what's scary about the potential future. Outside of Game
Speaker 1: four of the finals, Game four of the Finals was
Speaker 1: the one time I thought Shay kind of had a
Speaker 1: bad floor game in a big spot, but even then,
Speaker 1: he came alive down the stretch in the final minutes,
Speaker 1: made the big plays, got the win that they needed.
Speaker 1: But this year, at all likelihood, the margin for air
Speaker 1: will be smaller. The top six teams in the West
Speaker 1: are just better than they were last year, so Shay
Speaker 1: becoming a more consistent game manager would go a long
Speaker 1: way towards them helping avoid an upset. Ja Dubb's overall
Speaker 1: development Jada was incredible in this playoff run, and for
Speaker 1: that reason he ended up cracking my top twenty players
Speaker 1: in our player rankings this year, but he was inconsistent
Speaker 1: as well as many young players are. Like when Jay
Speaker 1: Dubbs scored at least eighteen points, the Thunder went fourteen
Speaker 1: and two, when he failed to score eighteen points the
Speaker 1: thunder went too five. The biggest piece was mostly his
Speaker 1: three point shooting. He was five for thirty four from
Speaker 1: three in those seven games where he failed to get
Speaker 1: to eighteen points. He did really it seemed like right
Speaker 1: towards the end of the Nugget series it like clicked
Speaker 1: for him. You could tell he like realized that no
Speaker 1: one can stop him from getting to the rim. It
Speaker 1: felt like one of the big aha moments for him
Speaker 1: in his career. He's just starting to realize that he's
Speaker 1: one of the most gifted basket attackers in the NBA.
Speaker 1: We went over some of the stats in our player
Speaker 1: rankings video that showed he's already one of the most
Speaker 1: gifted drivers of the basketball in the entire league. But
Speaker 1: if you can balance that out with the reliable three
Speaker 1: point shot, that's where he's going to become a very
Speaker 1: dependable night to night player. And again, when I'm talking
Speaker 1: about this and I'm about to talk about chet in
Speaker 1: a second, I'm not trying to be super critical of
Speaker 1: these guys. I'm pointing this stuff out as a as
Speaker 1: a reason to get excited these guys. How many teams.
Speaker 1: You don't how any fans around the league are looking
Speaker 1: at their team and they're like, we kind of are
Speaker 1: what we are. We just have to hope we have
Speaker 1: enough pieces. Like Oklahoma City can sit there and go like,
Speaker 1: I don't know how much better we're going to get
Speaker 1: this year, but these guys are going to be better.
Speaker 1: It's very possible that even just over the course of
Speaker 1: the season, like sometimes guys take leaps in big spots,
Speaker 1: like you could have Chet figure it out and it
Speaker 1: could all click in a big Western Conference finals series.
Speaker 1: That's a potential that this team has that many teams
Speaker 1: around the league don't have. With Chet, it's his offensive development.
Speaker 1: I thought Chet was phenomenal on defense in the entire
Speaker 1: playoff run. His combination of rim protection and his ability
Speaker 1: to switch out onto guards was a huge part of
Speaker 1: how Oklahoma City reached the level they reached defensively on
Speaker 1: their way to get the trophy. But obviously on offense
Speaker 1: it was an adventure. Right. He had six twenty point games,
Speaker 1: but he had four single digit games, and similarly to
Speaker 1: Jay Dubb, it was tied to the team's success when
Speaker 1: Chet scored at least thirteen points. The Thunder were thirteen
Speaker 1: and three. When he failed to score thirteen points, they
Speaker 1: were three and four. Obviously, a big part of that
Speaker 1: offensive rating we talked about in losses showed up in
Speaker 1: a variety of areas. He was forty six percent on
Speaker 1: layups in the playoff run. Obviously a player of his size,
Speaker 1: he just needs to get better at finishing around the
Speaker 1: rim through contact. He took twenty six off the dribble
Speaker 1: jump shots and only made six of them, so he
Speaker 1: either needs to massively improve there or kind of trim
Speaker 1: that fan out of his game. We'll see, it'll probably
Speaker 1: be a little bit of both. He shot thirty two
Speaker 1: percent on catch and shoot jumpers, including thirty two percent
Speaker 1: when he was unguarded, so he's got to be able
Speaker 1: to knock down open shots. And again, these are not criticisms.
Speaker 1: You literally just won the title and Chet is twenty
Speaker 1: three years old. He's going to get way better, and
Speaker 1: when he does, he's gonna be one of the best
Speaker 1: players in the league. Like I genuinely believe Chet has
Speaker 1: like Anthony Davis level two way potential. That's what he's
Speaker 1: capable of getting to. He's obviously years from that, but
Speaker 1: he has that capability and how far he gets in
Speaker 1: that direction this season is going to be a big
Speaker 1: part of whether or not they can stif arm the
Speaker 1: rest of the Western Conference. And again, like whether it's
Speaker 1: Chet or it's Jadub, or it's Shay or it's guys
Speaker 1: like case on Wallace, or whether or not Nicoleo Topitch
Speaker 1: ends up succeeding in a decent sized role, that will
Speaker 1: be the difference in whether or not that can stiff
Speaker 1: arm these teams or not. The West is an absolute beast.
Speaker 1: The top six teams are insane. I found the stat
Speaker 1: the other day and I found it very interesting. The
Speaker 1: big reason Oklahoma City got to sixty eight wins wasn't
Speaker 1: that they outclassed the West. They only won three more
Speaker 1: games against the West than the Los Angeles Lakers did.
Speaker 1: Led by old man Lebron James, they went twenty nine
Speaker 1: to one against the East. That game where Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: barely lost in Cleveland, that was their only loss against
Speaker 1: an Eastern Conference team all season. This is not an
Speaker 1: unbeatable team. As I said, I have them right there
Speaker 1: with Denver as the best team in the league. And again,
Speaker 1: all of those teams below, whether it be Houston or
Speaker 1: the Lakers or Minnesota. Minnesota Anthony Edwards got his ass
Speaker 1: kicked last year. You don't think he's coming back with
Speaker 1: a little bit more of an attitude, a little bit
Speaker 1: more of an effort to improve in the areas where
Speaker 1: Shay kicked his ass. We're going to talk about it
Speaker 1: in a second. The Clippers are a threat, Golden State's
Speaker 1: a threat. These are all upset threats, right, and then
Speaker 1: Denver's right there with them. This is not going to
Speaker 1: be easy for Oklahoma City to repeat. They're going to
Speaker 1: need that internal improvement. But to make it very clear,
Speaker 1: if they do get substantial leaps out of Shae, out
Speaker 1: of j Dub, out of Chet, they'll kick everyone's ass
Speaker 1: and they'll hoist the trophy again as the first repeat
Speaker 1: champion since twenty eighteen. Moving on to the Minnesota Timberwolves,
Speaker 1: relatively on event for off season. They lost to kill.
Speaker 1: Alexander Walker is really good player that I like, but
Speaker 1: it's a big loss for sure, Luca Garza and Josh Minatt.
Speaker 1: They added Joan Bearinger in the draft is like a
Speaker 1: super raw French big and some end of the bench guys.
Speaker 1: I think it's more likely that we just see more
Speaker 1: of like Terrence Shannon and Jalen Clark rather than a
Speaker 1: guy like Johnny Juzeng, for example. But we'll see the
Speaker 1: Timberwolves painful. As a Lakers fan reminded me last year
Speaker 1: that they are one of the best playoff teams in
Speaker 1: the NBA, regardless of how they look on any given
Speaker 1: night in the regular season. They're just sodamn big and
Speaker 1: sodamn strong and sodamn physical and athletic and sodamn competitive
Speaker 1: that they can just physically overwhelm you over the course
Speaker 1: of a series. But in each of the last two years,
Speaker 1: they've run into a combination of three things, an elite
Speaker 1: defense that can protect the rim, and a superior superstar
Speaker 1: on the other team that could pick apart Minnesota's defense,
Speaker 1: and in both cases, their impressive playoff runs came to
Speaker 1: screeching halts. Now, on the defensive end, there's only so
Speaker 1: much you can do with the supreme superstars of the NBA.
Speaker 1: But I do think it's worth talking about the game planning,
Speaker 1: like I do think Chris Finch was foolish for having
Speaker 1: Jaden McDaniels pick up Shakeous Alexander that far away from
Speaker 1: the basket. That was foolish, but I don't necessarily think
Speaker 1: it changes the outcome of the series. It's just like
Speaker 1: one of the things it's worth mentioning for. As good
Speaker 1: as Minnesota's defense was, both Oklahoma City and Dallas lit
Speaker 1: them up, so game planning obviously is going to be
Speaker 1: part of it as well, getting the most out of
Speaker 1: your defensive talent. But the biggest issue was their offense.
Speaker 1: Minnesota logged a one oh four offensive rating in the
Speaker 1: four losses versus Oklahoma City. That's just not going to
Speaker 1: get it done. It starts with Ant. He's got to
Speaker 1: become a more resilient, less variance dependent score. I talked
Speaker 1: a ton after the Western Conference Finals about how Shay
Speaker 1: badly outclassed Ant as a mid to short range score,
Speaker 1: and I thought it was literally the difference in the series.
Speaker 1: Shay outscored Ant one fifty seven to one fifteen in
Speaker 1: that series. If your superstar gets outplayed to that extent,
Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to overcome. Now, what I said at
Speaker 1: the time was that Ant needed to build out reliable
Speaker 1: short range scoring, the ability to use his size and
Speaker 1: strength to get closer to the against the elite perimeter
Speaker 1: defenders of the league. But also to have a shot
Speaker 1: that he can shoot over the rim protector so he
Speaker 1: doesn't have to contend with those guys at the rim.
Speaker 1: So I was relieved when Shaan Sharani had reported last
Speaker 1: week that Ant had spent all summer working on his
Speaker 1: post game and his mid to short range scoring. That
Speaker 1: means Ant is paying attention to what happened. It means
Speaker 1: he went back and watched the tape. He went back
Speaker 1: and looked at the numbers, and he saw where the
Speaker 1: area of opportunity was. We shared these stats during our
Speaker 1: player ranking series, but I want to share him again.
Speaker 1: Ant posted up twenty seven times in the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four playoff run and got one point one nine points
Speaker 1: per possession. That's awesome. He posted up just seven times
Speaker 1: total in the twenty twenty five playoff run. It was
Speaker 1: a thing that really worked for him and he like
Speaker 1: straight up abandoned it. There's a lot of talk about
Speaker 1: Ant's playmaking, and it's certainly something you want to see
Speaker 1: him to continue to incrementally improve on over the years.
Speaker 1: But he's averaging six assists per game on a two
Speaker 1: to one assist to turnover ratio over the last two
Speaker 1: playoff runs like he's getting better. He'll continue to get
Speaker 1: better there, but his supreme gift is scoring the basketball,
Speaker 1: and right now he's struggling to do that against the
Speaker 1: absolute best defenses in the league. That's where he needs
Speaker 1: to become more reliable. That heavy shift towards three point
Speaker 1: shooting and helped him in true shooting percentage in the
Speaker 1: regular season. It helped him hit higher scoring volume. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying he needs to stop taking threes, but he
Speaker 1: was six for thirty one from three again in the
Speaker 1: four losses against Oklahoma City. Because that's something that can
Speaker 1: happen when you rely on heavy, high volume three point shooting.
Speaker 1: Building out a reliable short range scoring game. It will
Speaker 1: help him go bucket for bucket with guys like Shay
Speaker 1: and the best greats in the NBA. I thought the
Speaker 1: Julius Randall experiment went about as well as it could
Speaker 1: have gone given the clunky fit. He shot better from
Speaker 1: three than you would think, like he was forty percent
Speaker 1: over his last twenty one regular season games and then
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent in the playoffs. He also provided like
Speaker 1: a face up and low post creation element to kind
Speaker 1: of get the defense into rotation. I hated his game two.
Speaker 1: In Game four against Oklahoma City, it felt like he
Speaker 1: was like openly pouting on the floor. But I'm trying
Speaker 1: to cut him at least a little bit of slack,
Speaker 1: just simply because Oklahoma City embarrassed a lot of guys
Speaker 1: with their defense in that playoff run. In general, I
Speaker 1: think he fits the identity of the team really well.
Speaker 1: He's a big, physical ass kicking forward that can really
Speaker 1: leverage that physicality in the postseason. He had twenty seven
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds in the playoffs, and he was a pretty
Speaker 1: efficient twenty four points per game before the Minnesota series.
Speaker 1: I think that that trade and that experiment worked out
Speaker 1: about as well as it possibly could have given the
Speaker 1: way it looked at the time of the trade. Those
Speaker 1: two guys ultimately control this team's destiny. The defense is
Speaker 1: the defense. They definitely need more from Chris Finch and
Speaker 1: game planning, like we talked about to prevent your defense
Speaker 1: from just completely falling apart against Luca and SGA. More
Speaker 1: mixing up of coverages, including some zone, more willingness to
Speaker 1: adjust when things aren't working. I don't think the Nikil
Speaker 1: Alexander Walker loss greatly affects their fortunes like he wasn't
Speaker 1: in their best five. He's very good. I like Alexander Walker.
Speaker 1: I wanted him on the Lakers this summer, but like
Speaker 1: he's not in their best five. And I do think
Speaker 1: in the regular season, guys like Terrence Shannon and Jalen
Speaker 1: Clark can be productive enough to prevent much of a
Speaker 1: drop off there, and one of those guys, one of
Speaker 1: those two dudes will end up popping just enough to
Speaker 1: be able to give you a shift or two per
Speaker 1: game when they get to the postseason. They also match
Speaker 1: up really well with Denver, which I think is a
Speaker 1: strong foundation for a case that Minnesota could win the conference.
Speaker 1: They just need to be able to score the ball
Speaker 1: when they face an elite defense that can protect the rim.
Speaker 1: So essentially, what I'm saying is they've got to be
Speaker 1: able to handle Oklahoma City if they can get there,
Speaker 1: and that's going to depend on Julius Randall avoiding those
Speaker 1: disaster games than the Edwards becoming a better and more
Speaker 1: reliable score hopefully built around the idea of short to
Speaker 1: mid range scoring as well as the incremental improvements as
Speaker 1: a playmaker. The pathways there for Minnesota, like it's easy
Speaker 1: to see Minnesota gets on the opposite side of the
Speaker 1: bracket from Oklahoma City and Denver, and Denver upsets Oklahoma City.
Speaker 1: You get Minnesota Denver in the conference finals, repeat of
Speaker 1: what happened two years ago. All of a sudden, you're
Speaker 1: in the finals and you're probably favored when you get there,
Speaker 1: but again that's not guaranteed. There's a chance. There's a
Speaker 1: good chance you run into Oklahoma City somewhere along the way,
Speaker 1: especially if they end up with the one and two seed.
Speaker 1: So at that point you're going to have to solve
Speaker 1: that puzzle when you get there. Right, We're going to
Speaker 1: go more quickly through these last two Portland Trailblazers off
Speaker 1: season recap. They lost dere And and Andrey Simons. They added
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday and Damian Lillard, who's going to miss all
Speaker 1: of the season, and Young Hansen, who was their first
Speaker 1: round pick at number sixteen. Kind of an interesting pick.
Speaker 1: Most draft boards graded him as a second rounder. My
Speaker 1: guy Sam Vessini, who is the person I trust the
Speaker 1: most with the draft, he had him at forty eight.
Speaker 1: The Blazers also had just drafted Donovan Klingen, so I
Speaker 1: guess they're looking at this as like a center by
Speaker 1: committee thing. I was looking at some quotes and apparently
Speaker 1: they're looking at as like Donovan Klingon is your big,
Speaker 1: physical ass kicking center, and then Yang Hansen is basically
Speaker 1: like your finesse you know, offensive skill oriented center. The
Speaker 1: Blazers have some really interesting young talent. Shade and Sharp
Speaker 1: had a bunch of really big scoring games down the
Speaker 1: stretch of the season. Although that was a lot of
Speaker 1: like high usage chucking. Denny Avdya really popped at the
Speaker 1: end of the year. In his final thirteen games. This
Speaker 1: is crazy. Denny Avdia averaged twenty seven points, eleven rebounds,
Speaker 1: and six assists, and he won his minutes. And he
Speaker 1: did it on fifty two percent from the field, forty
Speaker 1: six percent from three, and eighty two percent from the line.
Speaker 1: And the big thing is, like, again, you see a
Speaker 1: lot of noise at the end of the year, especially
Speaker 1: with teams that don't really have anything to play for.
Speaker 1: They put the ball in the hands of a bunch
Speaker 1: of random do dudes, and sometimes they can put up
Speaker 1: numbers like I like Shaden Sharp, but I don't expect
Speaker 1: Shadon Sharp to be a guy that's gonna average twenty
Speaker 1: six points a game like he did down the stretch
Speaker 1: of the season. Right Like to me, like the major
Speaker 1: on ball stuff isn't really coming forward for me as
Speaker 1: something that I think he's ready for just yet. But
Speaker 1: like the Denny Ovdyus stuff, I view that as real.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe not to the extent is of him
Speaker 1: like averaging twenty seven points per game for a whole season,
Speaker 1: but especially with the Scoot Henderson injury, who apparently tore
Speaker 1: his hamstring the other day. I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: they start with Denny as like their primary shot creators
Speaker 1: start the year. And I wouldn't be surprised if we're
Speaker 1: twenty games into the season and Denny's averaging like twenty
Speaker 1: five points, ten rebounds, five assists on sixty percent through shooting.
Speaker 1: He's just he's a really gifted offensive player. He shot
Speaker 1: pull up threes insanely well. He's got forty one percent
Speaker 1: on seventy pull up threes with Portland. He showed that
Speaker 1: in ball screens when guys would go under. He showed
Speaker 1: it in ISO out of dribble combinations on like step
Speaker 1: backs and things like that. He's got like real downhill
Speaker 1: burst you'll see it in ISOs where he'll just catch
Speaker 1: and he'll get a big on a switch and he'll
Speaker 1: just hit the gas going to the right and he'll
Speaker 1: dust somebody off the dribble. He'll in a ball screen
Speaker 1: if the BIG's not up at the level, he'll get
Speaker 1: downhill into the lane, driving clothes out, so he'll hit
Speaker 1: a really hard like left handed or like a jab
Speaker 1: step to the left and then drive to the right
Speaker 1: where he gets really good first step quickness. He's got
Speaker 1: some bullyball to his game where he'll just power through guys.
Speaker 1: He'll drop that right shoulder and just go through guys
Speaker 1: all the way to the basket. He's got like really
Speaker 1: nice change of pace on his drives, like in ball screens,
Speaker 1: he'll put the defender in jail and trap him on
Speaker 1: the backside and hit a little floater or like a
Speaker 1: step through something like that. He'll like burst downhill and
Speaker 1: then slow way down with slow down steps. His bigs
Speaker 1: jump around him, and then he'll find a little angle
Speaker 1: he'll euro or he'll slide through some weird gap where
Speaker 1: it'll look like he's driving towards the left and then
Speaker 1: somehow finish on the right as he swalloms through the
Speaker 1: lane like it's honestly a little Luca Lights. Sometimes he's
Speaker 1: he's got pump fakes and like up and unders and
Speaker 1: step throughs where he'll get to little short floaters and
Speaker 1: short jump shots. Honestly, I think it's a really impressive
Speaker 1: move from this Portland front office to find an underappreciated
Speaker 1: talent in this league. And to be clear, I wasn't
Speaker 1: watching the Wizards a ton back then. I wasn't aware
Speaker 1: of this upside myself. But he has my attention now
Speaker 1: and I think he's really really good. As I was
Speaker 1: digging into the Portland tape this morning, you know, you're
Speaker 1: gonna see a lot of noise, like we talked about,
Speaker 1: but in that noise, you're gonna see things that you
Speaker 1: think are real, And Denny Avdia being like potentially a
Speaker 1: legitimate like shot creator in this league is something that
Speaker 1: I think is real and I'm really really excited to
Speaker 1: watch him this year. Tamani Kamara and Drew Holliday will
Speaker 1: make a formidable pairing of defensive weapons, and they have
Speaker 1: a strong defensive center rotation with Donovan Klingen and Rob Williams.
Speaker 1: They don't have their clear foundational superstar yet and I'm
Speaker 1: not sure if Scoot hender will ever be that, but
Speaker 1: they do have some really strong foundational pieces. I think
Speaker 1: the main goals for this season are find out if
Speaker 1: Denny is good enough to be a championship number two,
Speaker 1: give him the ball a ton, and then see what
Speaker 1: the upside is trending towards with guys like Scoot Henderson,
Speaker 1: if he can be healthy and shade and sharp right.
Speaker 1: If they're not, then it's time for you to start
Speaker 1: planning how to get that foundational superstar again. The thought
Speaker 1: process is, you need a number one, you need a
Speaker 1: number two, and you need complimentary role players. And you
Speaker 1: don't know what complimentary role players you need until you
Speaker 1: know what your number one and your number two are.
Speaker 1: And I think getting Denny and like seeing that upside
Speaker 1: and we'll see. It's got to you know, it's one
Speaker 1: thing to do it for twenty games or whatever. At
Speaker 1: the end of the season, you got to you gotta
Speaker 1: figure out how to do it. Over the course of
Speaker 1: a season. There's gonna be attempts to figure him out
Speaker 1: in scouting, and teams will figure out ways to guard
Speaker 1: him better than they did. There was a lot of
Speaker 1: like going underpicks on Denny. There are certain teams that
Speaker 1: chase him over, Like I watched the game with the
Speaker 1: Knicks where they chased him over the entire game, and
Speaker 1: that's where he showed a lot of that like putting
Speaker 1: the defender in jail type of stuff. But then there
Speaker 1: are other games where dudes are dying on picks and
Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, if you're going to hit pull up
Speaker 1: threes at forty percent, they're gonna start chasing you over
Speaker 1: the top. Right, We're going to see the league try
Speaker 1: to figure Denny out and then we will find out
Speaker 1: if Denny is worth building around as that like secondary
Speaker 1: star on a real team with real chances. But Portland's
Speaker 1: going to be a really fun league pass team this year.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if they got up around thirty
Speaker 1: to thirty five wins. But we will see. Lastly, today
Speaker 1: the Utah Jazz. They lost Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Colin Sexton,
Speaker 1: Johnny Juzang, Jaden Springer, and they added Mobamba, a bunch
Speaker 1: of vets that they'll probably trade or buy out at
Speaker 1: some point, like Kyle Anderson. Kevin loved George's Kniang and
Speaker 1: use Nurkic. A couple of really interesting draft picks, like
Speaker 1: Ace Bailey out of Rutgers, who's the He's like a
Speaker 1: tough shot maker that can't make tough shots yet and
Speaker 1: a lot of unrealized defensive upside, so, in other words,
Speaker 1: like a big upside pick. So well if he can
Speaker 1: reach that upside. And then Walter Clayton Junior is the
Speaker 1: guard out of Florida who made a name for himself
Speaker 1: in the NCAA Tournament in a deep run. I don't
Speaker 1: have a ton to say about the Jazz. They don't
Speaker 1: feel like they've made any progress towards their big picture plans.
Speaker 1: They clearly don't have their franchise superstar yet. I mean,
Speaker 1: Ace Bailey has that upside, I suppose, but that's a
Speaker 1: long shot. It's certainly like a half decade away. And
Speaker 1: I like Lori Markinen is a potential number two for
Speaker 1: the right superstar. We're going to talk about him in
Speaker 1: the context of the Detroit Pistons in the video coming
Speaker 1: up on Monday, but he's twenty eight years old now,
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure how he fits Utah's timeline unless
Speaker 1: you have a plan to bring in a superstar that's older. Right.
Speaker 1: I continue to see reports coming out of Utah that
Speaker 1: they have no intention of trading him, which makes no
Speaker 1: sense to me. Like, I get that he's a great
Speaker 1: guy and a great player, and you like having him
Speaker 1: in the organization, but he's a great vehicle with which
Speaker 1: to give your team more opportunities to find the foundational superstar,
Speaker 1: which you don't have yet. There's no young player on
Speaker 1: this roster below the age of twenty five that has
Speaker 1: real big picture upside other than Ace Bailey, who you
Speaker 1: just brought in and we've never seen play in the
Speaker 1: pros and in college was a mess. Right, So I
Speaker 1: guess this year there's some interesting stuff, right, Like we'll
Speaker 1: see if the Jazz trade Lori to a contender. We'll
Speaker 1: see if Ace Bailey pops it all. But I'm kind
Speaker 1: of unfamiliar with where Utah is trying to get at
Speaker 1: this point in time. All Right, guys, It's all I
Speaker 1: have for today is always to sincerely appreciate you guys
Speaker 1: for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back
Speaker 1: on Monday, going back out yeast. I believe the Central Division,
Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, so I will see you guys.
Speaker 1: Then