1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,679 Speaker 1: We are one week to go, and I'm thrilled today 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: on the warning to bring you one of the country's 3 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:09,880 Speaker 1: premiere polsters. Will talk about what a polster is, different 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: than a prognosticator, different than a guesser, different than a 5 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: lot of the bullshitters out there. John Dell of Hoope 6 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 1: at the Harvard Institute of Politics, their director of polling. 7 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: John. 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 3: Welcome, Absolutely, it's great to be with you, Steve. Thanks. 9 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: So we're week out, who's winning? Where does the race stand? 10 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 3: Well, you know, a week out the posters know nothing 11 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 3: more than I think the average person, right, which is 12 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 3: every one of these seven battle ground states is literally 13 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 3: within you know, within a point, within a point. So 14 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 3: this is something Steve that actually is is kind of 15 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 3: beyond I think the scope right of survey research to 16 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 3: call something, you know, with this level of specificity. Having 17 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 3: said that, I think we could, you know, put this 18 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 3: race ins to context relative to the race of twenty twenty, 19 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 3: which is what I generally tend to do in situations 20 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 3: like this, right, And I can argue it. I can 21 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 3: argue it either way. If if if you if you 22 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 3: look at it one way relative to where we were 23 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 3: on this day in twenty twenty, Steve, you know this day, 24 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 3: Joe Biden had roughly a seven point something lead four 25 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 3: years ago in this day in the national poland their 26 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,759 Speaker 3: lead is one to two at the most. On this 27 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 3: day in twenty twenty, when we look through the Blue 28 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 3: Wall States as an example, Biden campaign was leading between 29 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: five and seven points across each of those three states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 3: And today again to the extent that Harris has a lead, 31 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 3: it's less than a point. On this day four years ago, 32 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 3: Biden had a eight point leading in Nevada and today 33 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 3: that's a toss up. Perhaps Paris is up by two points. 34 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 3: Same story in North Carolina he was up by two 35 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: ended up losing that. And he was even in Georgia 36 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 3: this time four years ago, and of course they won 37 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 3: that by just a handful of votes. So when you 38 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 3: look at it in that perspective, a lot of those 39 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 3: signs point to some opportunity for Trump that perhaps didn't 40 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 3: exist four years ago, because we know that he he extended, 41 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 3: you know, his his final number beat the polls by 42 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 3: a couple of points on one hand. On the other hand, 43 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 3: on the other hand, and many of those background states 44 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 3: the Democratic Senate candidate is outperforming the top let ticket, 45 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, which means that there are Democrats there who 46 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: uh that there there were voted voters in those background 47 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 3: states who prefer the Democrat message the Democratic values relative 48 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 3: to the Republican challenger, which shows that there could be 49 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 3: some more rooms to grow for Kamala Harris. So again 50 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 3: you can argue it either either way. But that's you know, 51 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 3: at this stage part of the way in which I'm 52 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: looking at it. 53 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: Do you have a feeling right now and intuition in 54 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 1: the sense of this is the question I would ask 55 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: all you guys back in my days when I was 56 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: doing this, which which is I get the you know, 57 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: you get all the opinions around the table, and I 58 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,119 Speaker 1: bring it down to would you rather be us er them? 59 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: So that question, if you're on the on the Harris side, 60 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: would you rather be user them? 61 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 2: Right now? 62 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 3: The Harris side, I think the Harris side has a 63 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 3: much stronger organization right a much stronger organization end ground game. 64 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 3: They're voters, are voters who have typically voted and in 65 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 3: recent elections, they know who they are. They've invested obviously 66 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 3: tens and tens of millions of dollars on that that 67 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 3: is a known quantity. They have outperformed there. They have 68 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 3: outperformed expectations in multiple races over the last couple of years. 69 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 3: So that is certainly something that I think the Trump 70 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 3: campaign would like an organization like the Harris campaign on 71 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 3: one hand. On the other on the other hand, this 72 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 3: is a race where where I think Kamala Harris, you know, 73 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: had several weeks, if not several months, of momentum. That 74 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 3: momentum has stopped. So that's something that I think, you know, 75 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 3: we're talking one week out. We'll see. I think if 76 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 3: if Massive Square Garden had some effect, I'm not sure 77 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 3: it did, but there I think there needs to be 78 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 3: something that can kick the that have momentum and I 79 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 3: vibe back into something that feels better about them. There 80 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 3: was an article, you know, and and in the in 81 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 3: the Times of the last twelve hours twenty four hours 82 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 3: or so that talked about the headquarters feeling a little 83 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 3: bit better. We'll we'll see, but this isn't gonna be 84 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,479 Speaker 3: something a polland can really indicate. At this point. I 85 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 3: think you know, we're talking about you know, you know, 86 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 3: relatively small numbers of voters and in certain states and 87 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 3: making sure those ballots, those ballots get picked up and 88 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 3: and and dropped off in the ballot box. That's what 89 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 3: people are kind of a looking for the sign when. 90 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: I look at observe the rally in Madison Square Garden, 91 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: Putting aside the repulsiveness of it, from a real world, 92 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: practical electoral perspective, are there enough offendable Puerto Ricans in 93 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania or Florida specifically with regard to that Senate race? 94 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 1: And Rick Scott, who was very fast to draw and 95 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: not me, never heard of Trump when it came to 96 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: the Puerto Rican antagonisms. Any chance that the Puerto Ricans 97 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: are able to because of that be looked at in 98 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: a way that was different than we were looking at 99 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: that block on Saturday. From a determinative voter group perspective, 100 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: I absolutely think. 101 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 3: So you're dealing with a group. You know, there's what 102 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: nor the three hundred thousand Puerto Ricans and Pennsylvania. Yeah, right, 103 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 3: And in my eye, it's less about flipping them from 104 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 3: Republican Democrat, but it's about activating that right and especially 105 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 3: you know they're over indexing. I think for kind of 106 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 3: younger you know, twenty thirty even early forty something, right, 107 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 3: and there's been just you know, I think every port 108 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 3: where you can have seen multiple times right through through 109 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 3: their digital media or through traditional media, or through telephone 110 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: and texting kind of the offensive remarks from from a 111 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 3: couple of days ago of Goo in massive square garden. 112 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 3: And I could see some pressure from you know, members 113 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: of the family saying, come on, let's come on, and 114 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 3: let's vote. And as you know, you know, even just 115 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 3: a very small fraction of three hundred thousand boats right 116 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 3: could be could be determined in Pennsylvania. And listen, don't 117 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 3: you know, don't believe me, you know, you know, talk 118 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 3: to Rick Scott right, or Peter Navarro, you know, and 119 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 3: others who are very very quick to condemn that particular comment, 120 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 3: that particular comment. 121 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: I think that generally you would be regarded as the 122 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: pre eminent and foremost expert on younger voters in the 123 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: in the country, and if not number one, certainly in 124 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: the top top two or three. 125 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 2: And I want to get into that vote. 126 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: We were on a panel at Stanford University in front 127 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: of a class where a mutual friend of ours is 128 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: the is the professor, and you talked about what's going 129 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 1: to be a massive, massive, massive gender gap that flows 130 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: all the way down through the electorate, in a generational 131 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: divide that comes right on through younger male voters. And 132 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: I just wanted to let you talk about that to 133 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: this audience and talk about this younger generation of voters 134 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: who are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a 135 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 1: woke progressive monolith of the imaginings. I think of a 136 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: lot of people who might watch this, a lot of 137 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: people who are watching MSNBC a lot more complex than that, 138 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: and just wanted to hear you extemporize, not to put 139 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 1: you on the spot about it, but what are we 140 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: looking at with regard to younger voters in this electorate? 141 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 2: And why? 142 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks, Steve. A couple things to start with, right, 143 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 3: I think without younger voters and the record setting turnout 144 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 3: from twenty twenty and the Obama literally the Obama like 145 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 3: share a vote that Joe Biden got in twenty and 146 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 3: twenty eight Donald Trump would be president today. Okay, that 147 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 3: when we think about in American politics the last handful 148 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 3: of years, this is the case in twenty eighteen as 149 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 3: well as in twenty twenty two. You know, Republicans do 150 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 3: really well with our generation and those older right with 151 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 3: genitors and baby boomers down the generation, those generations essentially 152 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 3: people over the age of forty five or fifty, is 153 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 3: the you know, the kind of heart and soul of 154 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 3: the Republican Party right now, as you know. And in 155 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 3: twenty twenty, Donald Trump carried that cohort of voters by 156 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 3: a significant margin. It was the again the record turnout 157 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 3: and that sixty percent share of vote that Joe Biden 158 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 3: had that was responsible for flipping those five background states 159 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 3: that we're still talking about from red in twenty sixteen 160 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 3: to blue, Okay. And what was notable is that Joe 161 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 3: Biden in each of those states, with the exception of Georgia, 162 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 3: which was still strong, received about sixty percent of the 163 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 3: There's about a twenty point margin in each of those states. 164 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 3: So Number one, we live in a different country, I think, 165 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 3: a better country because because of young people. So and 166 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 3: then that's kind of part one. The other part of 167 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 3: this is over the last twenty five years, there has 168 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 3: been one hundred percent correlation between Democrats winning the White 169 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 3: House when they received sixty percent of the youth vote. 170 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 3: You know, Obama did it twice sixty percent in sixty, 171 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,079 Speaker 3: sixty six and sixty and Joe Biden did it once 172 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 3: as you know, in two thousand, two thousand and four. 173 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 3: In twenty sixteen, Hillary Gore and John Kerrey received somewhere 174 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,439 Speaker 3: in the mid mid to high fifties. So those are 175 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 3: the kind of the things that I'm looking at in 176 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 3: terms of where is Harris now on that kind of 177 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 3: on that on that youth vote. So that's kind of 178 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 3: how I'm thinking about. That's the importance of this particular cohort. 179 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 3: It's likely going to be sixteen seventeen percent I think 180 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 3: of all voter of all those casts, so north of 181 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 3: one in seven or so people will be a young voter, 182 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 3: people under the age of thirty. So that's like the background. Okay, However, 183 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 3: what we what we need to appreciate is that what 184 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 3: makes us so exciting for me every every every cycle, 185 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 3: is that the young voters of today, we're nine years old, 186 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 3: ten years old. I just had lunch with the eight 187 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 3: students you know who were in fifth and sixth grade 188 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 3: when they had their first memory of Donald Trump. Okay, 189 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 3: they're eighteen, nineteen, twenty year old today. A decade ago, 190 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 3: he's coming down the Golden escalator. And these were children, 191 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 3: there were middle schoolers, you know, kind of at best. 192 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 3: And the relationship they have with Donald Trump is different 193 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 3: than the relationship that quote younger voters had just four 194 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 3: years ago. Okay, a younger voter four years ago was 195 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 3: old enough to process, you know, what he said when 196 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 3: he got to the bottom of the escalator, was able 197 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 3: to process what it meant to put ben In on 198 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 3: the Supreme on the NSC right, was able to process 199 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 3: pulling out of Paris, or excuse the behavior in Charlottesville, 200 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 3: or or not or or or not kind of engaging 201 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 3: meaningful ways after the Mandalay Bay and the Parkland shouldn't 202 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 3: They could process that, and they voted in record numbers 203 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 3: as a backlash in some respects to Donald Trump. Okay, well, 204 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 3: the ten year old from a decade ago who is 205 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 3: now twenty didn't able to like, have that same experience 206 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 3: with those some of those public events I just mentioned 207 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 3: instead have been you know, spent thesands of hours in 208 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 3: their room in high school, oftentimes listening to you know, 209 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 3: to podcasters and friends and and through their social media 210 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 3: about the government being ineffective, ineffectual, and and and a 211 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 3: sense of of of Trump was stronger and Biden was weaker, right, 212 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 3: and then the becoming of age where things are obviously 213 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 3: very expensive, especially for younger people, and they are concerned 214 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 3: like we all are, about the cost deliding. And their 215 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 3: response is the backlash some people is a backlash to 216 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 3: the last four years of the Biden administration. So, you know, 217 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 3: to put that into perspective, you said, this is not 218 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,719 Speaker 3: a generation as a woke monolith. It's it's a very 219 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 3: it's a very complex generation and could well be one 220 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 3: of the keys to the election. The degree to which 221 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 3: Kamala Harris gets to sixty percent in those background states 222 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 3: will be you know, how effectives she will be at 223 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 3: kind of bridge. But it isn't even a gender gap 224 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 3: as much it is a gender gulf at this point 225 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 3: or this cohort. 226 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 2: Talk about that. How big is it. 227 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 3: Depends upon what frame we're looking at. To be honest, 228 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 3: Steve right, and if you if you keep up relatively 229 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 3: tight frame around you know, likely likely voters. You know, 230 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 3: we see Harris, We see Harris winning both younger men 231 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 3: and younger when you're younger women. When you can extend 232 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 3: that a little bit too, you know, less for Pence 233 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 3: or just registered voters, the gap gets even bigger, you know, 234 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 3: close to close to thirty apartment points. It just again 235 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 3: depends upon exactly kind of what that what that frame is. 236 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 3: And and I think one of the things that's notable 237 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 3: is one of the things that's very, verynerable is the 238 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 3: degree to which Harris is actually has been making some 239 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 3: interros with this group over the last several months, you know, 240 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 3: six months ago. So we do this Harvard pol We've 241 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 3: been doing it at least twice a year or twenty 242 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 3: five years this uh this year, we have done three. 243 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 3: We've done two just in the in the last month. 244 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 3: And what we found was Harris has has significant has 245 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 3: done a significantly better job at at connecting with this 246 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 3: group compared to compared to what Biden what six six 247 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 3: months ago in our polling. In fact, for some other 248 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 3: polling I did this summertime, Trump was actually leading among 249 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 3: all younger people, among all younger people in the in 250 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 3: the in the battleground states. But Harris has made up 251 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 3: some of that some of that room. She's seemed as 252 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 3: more competent, more empathetic, and among among younger men and 253 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 3: in some cases specifically around younger men who are black 254 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,239 Speaker 3: and Hispanic, Asian American, et cetera. They see her stronger. 255 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 3: So she's made some significant in roads. She needs to 256 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 3: continue to work out of the remaining days of this campaign. 257 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 2: If I was to have woken up from a coma. 258 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: After having been asleep for the last twelve years, and 259 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: they've sent you in to brief me on what's going 260 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: on in American politics, how would you explain it in 261 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: in three minutes? 262 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 2: What happened? 263 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 3: Well, let me let me focus on on the you know, 264 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 3: the place I spend the most time, right, younger Americans, Right, 265 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 3: you know. And by the way, younger Americans are now 266 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 3: two generations Gen Z and millennials, okay, and pushing forty 267 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 3: percent of the electorate in this current cycle. Okay, So 268 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 3: they're very quickly becoming they're very quickly becoming the majority. 269 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 3: I think. I think in two thousand and eight people 270 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 3: felt in their aspects of two thousand and eight. I 271 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 3: think that we saw earlier this summer, right where there 272 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 3: was a sense a sense of hopefulness in our politics, 273 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 3: if even for a fleeting a couple of moments, right, 274 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 3: whether it was the Obama era or or the early 275 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 3: days of the Harris campaign. But if you if you 276 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 3: went to sleep, you know after November of two thousand. 277 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 4: And eight, you know you you you. 278 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 3: You left on a on a really high note right 279 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 3: where where we felt pretty connected for at least a 280 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 3: couple of moments as as Americans, right, you know, your 281 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 3: role boss. Senator McCain was incredibly gracious throughout the entire campaign, 282 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 3: especially at townhome meeting. I think about as we as 283 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 3: we speak, and clearly on election night as well. And 284 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 3: then and then and then I think for for too 285 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 3: many people, things got divisive again, right, I think things 286 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 3: got divisive pretty quickly where you know, it wasn't that 287 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 3: long after the election. Wor Mitch McConnell said, the main 288 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 3: job was to ensure you know, President Obama's defeat, and 289 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 3: I and I think perhaps like that whiplash between feeling 290 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 3: so much hope and then so much division, I think 291 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 3: was extremely difficult, especially kind of for younger people whose 292 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 3: expectations were so high, you know that this could be 293 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 3: their moment and and and and and be a part 294 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 3: of something uh bigger. All right, So part one is 295 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 3: younger people were part of that twodalivan a campaign quickly 296 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 3: got disillusioned, Okay, quickly got disillusioned, and we saw the 297 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 3: decreasing levels of turning out in participation. That's part one, Okay. 298 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 3: The second part, of course, is the significant economic loss 299 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:10,719 Speaker 3: right due to the Great Recession, and that I've learned 300 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 3: has continued, you know, to kind of echo through through 301 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 3: our politics. Not only do we have a generation of 302 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 3: folks I think kind of our age when the Gen 303 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 3: xers who still feel economically kind of unstable because of 304 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 3: all the economic loss from you know, from fifteen or 305 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 3: twenty years ago, but we now have our children and 306 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 3: the children of folks who were suffered so much economic 307 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 3: loss and economic anxiety seeing this as a lens from 308 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 3: what they view politics today, okay, which is very I 309 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 3: think dangerous for the party and power. I've met a 310 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 3: significant number of people who who talk about those nightmares 311 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 3: as children that they're reliving now in their earlier a 312 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 3: doubt years from the Great Recession. Okay. So you have 313 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 3: a generation of miles we're excited to vote for the 314 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 3: first time, we quickly got disillusion about the process. Part one, right, 315 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 3: because of politics. And then you have the significant kind 316 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 3: of economic stability instability from that era, which still hangs 317 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 3: with people, right, and they and they see, I think, 318 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 3: and they see in many ways that both parties have 319 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 3: kind of let them down. I hear that a ton 320 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 3: a ton in the focus groups that have been conducting 321 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 3: over the over the many years kind of since that, right, 322 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 3: So if those two things are happening, I think, to me, 323 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 3: that helps explain why kind of a strong man enters 324 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 3: the arena and says listen, Democrats and traditional Republicans have 325 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 3: not kind of followed through the promises that they've made. 326 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 3: Only I can do this. I come from outside the space. 327 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 3: I'm going to use these so called business practices, you know, 328 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 3: for everyone's benefit. Okay, So to me, you know, that 329 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 3: helps kind of explain. That helps kind of explain some 330 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 3: of this. The other thing is that, as I said, 331 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 3: younger people Steve became somewhat disenchanted. So from the high 332 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 3: point of two thousand and eight, we saw a lower turnout, 333 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 3: you know, when young people were not a big part 334 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 3: of the twenty sixteen Hillary Clinton campaign, you know, and 335 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 3: they were kind of, you know, probably less active than 336 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 3: maybe I would have thought when you when you went 337 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 3: to sleep in two thousand and eight. So I think 338 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 3: the combination of the continued economic instability, the lack of 339 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 3: younger people participating in politics and supporting kind of progressive 340 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 3: policies as they did in two thousand and eight opened 341 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 3: the door or someone like Trump. And I think that 342 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 3: to me helps explain part of the reason kind of 343 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 3: where we are. And then and then I think that 344 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 3: the last thing I would say is, you're also waking 345 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 3: up with you know, what tell me is a world 346 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 3: on fire, right, concerns about China and much more of 347 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 3: the concerns about the aggression of Russia, and of course 348 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 3: what's happening. And then the least in an era also, 349 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 3: you know, while you were sleeping for that next number 350 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 3: of years, you know, social media and TikTok has brought 351 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 3: everything you know right direct to cut into our hands 352 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 3: and into our faces and ways that I think of. 353 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 3: People can can feel the vulnerability and other humans and 354 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 3: in the humanity, not just in the community, button around 355 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 3: the world, right, and that makes people feel uneasy and 356 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 3: unhappy with whoever the administration power is. And today it 357 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: happens to be Biden's Paris administration. 358 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 1: You're gonna be like idiocracy became true. 359 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 2: It was a prophecy there you go. Movie. What does 360 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 2: she need to close on? 361 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: If you were she's gonna have fifty thousand people in 362 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: Washington this afternoon, What is she needs to say to 363 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: the country. 364 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 3: I think that she needs to say basically three things, right. One, 365 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 3: of course, is the contrast, and is that you know, 366 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 3: he he's for the wealthy, she's for the working class. 367 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:18,120 Speaker 1: Right. 368 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,880 Speaker 3: I think that needs to be uh clear, That needs 369 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 3: to be that needs to be crystal clear. One, especially 370 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 3: on economic messaging and on and on the vision. I 371 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 3: think that needs to be the stronger one. I think 372 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 3: the second thing is she needs to she needs to 373 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 3: remind aspects I think of her, of her coalition that 374 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:52,199 Speaker 3: she she hears them, and that that she has a 375 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 3: vision and a plan that that that lowers prices and 376 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,640 Speaker 3: gives people some faith, some stability kind of in the economy. Right. 377 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 3: So she needs to absolutely be much stronger in my 378 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,880 Speaker 3: view in the closing days on that aspect of the messaging. 379 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 3: And then the third part is you know she this 380 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 3: is what she I think has been strong at over 381 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 3: the last week, is she needs to continue to keep 382 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 3: this kind of the progressive element, this younger element, kind 383 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 3: of you know, keeps that needs to keep that energy up. 384 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 3: So she needs to do three things right. She needs 385 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 3: to keep this contrast, I think in terms of the 386 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 3: wealthy versus the working class. One. She needs to communicate 387 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 3: her vision for really tell us what the opportunity economy means, okay, 388 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 3: in clear ways in which I can understand it, and 389 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 3: my mom can understand it, and my kids can understand it. 390 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 3: You know what that means for people. And then she 391 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 3: needs to I think also kind of protect her progressive base, 392 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 3: especially in in in in the in the you know, 393 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,679 Speaker 3: in the blue battleground states of the Blue Wall states. 394 00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: I wanted to bring you back to the beginning of 395 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 1: the conversation. I think that one of the things that 396 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,199 Speaker 1: a lot of people are confused about who talk to 397 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: me about the numbers, about how to interpret them, is 398 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: the variance that's played out that you talked about that 399 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: you know, Biden was seven points up and he wins 400 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: by a whisker in this state. 401 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 2: Well, what do you what accounts for that? 402 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: And do you think that that's been kinked out of 403 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: the system now you know after four years that the 404 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: Trump undercount But what what is it that people are 405 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 1: are missing about about the about the Trump vote in 406 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: its total. 407 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an excellent question. So so a couple of things. 408 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 3: The polling has been quite good identifying the Democratic number, right, 409 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 3: it's been the Trump number that has been undercounted. Right. 410 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 3: And there is a debate in our industry in terms 411 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,919 Speaker 3: of the waiting mechanisms between sixteen and twenty you know, 412 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 3: folks who weren't you know, included educational status in terms 413 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 3: of as a waiting variable. Today, a lot of polsters, 414 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 3: not everyone, but a lot of posters are using recalled 415 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 3: vote from twenty twenty as one of those variables as 416 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 3: a way to ensure we're getting enough Trump folks kind 417 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 3: of in in the samples my listen. In my sense 418 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 3: is the this is less about the kind of that 419 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,200 Speaker 3: Bradley effect, right, people being shy Trump voters to posters, 420 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 3: and it's potentially more about a couple of things. There's 421 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 3: a potential there's a potential that there is a potential 422 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 3: that folks who are most likely to be you know, 423 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,479 Speaker 3: you know, his his his expanded base is folks who 424 00:26:55,720 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 3: feel disconnected right from government and may way blaming elites 425 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 3: like posters in the media. Okay, for the situation in 426 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,199 Speaker 3: which the country is in and they're less likely to 427 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 3: get a participate. There's some aspect of that. Again, we 428 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 3: try to correct for that by having the recall vote. 429 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,400 Speaker 3: But to the extent to which he's being an accountant, 430 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,679 Speaker 3: there's elements of that. And I actually, I don't know 431 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 3: a lot of people disagree, but I do think that 432 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 3: there are you know, maybe more undecided or softer voter 433 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 3: Steve right than we might appreciate. I spend a lot 434 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 3: of time talking again in focus grips. I mean, that's 435 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 3: kind of my job. I kind of think of myself 436 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 3: as more of a listener than a statistician, you know. 437 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:42,120 Speaker 3: And and when I enter these rooms and have these conversations, 438 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 3: I see a lot of softness, especially with the cohorts. 439 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 3: I'm focused on right. 440 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,679 Speaker 2: I see he's gonna win. Who who do those people 441 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 2: think is going to be the president? 442 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,920 Speaker 3: I feel that folks are a lot more confident about Trump, right, 443 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 3: And I felt that this entire year, you know. And 444 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 3: and one of the things that I think they're trying 445 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 3: to make this final decision about Steve, especially younger women, 446 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 3: who Harris needs as many as possible, is do I 447 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,400 Speaker 3: vote in, you know, in my interest as a woman, 448 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 3: you know, for reproductive help and abortion access, or do 449 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 3: I vote, you know, for my economic interest? Right? You know, 450 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 3: I could argue that's a false choice, okay, but I'm 451 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,120 Speaker 3: not gonna win that argument with undecided voters right now. 452 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna win that argument, right because it's that's 453 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 3: I can talk in a rational way. They're you know, 454 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 3: reacting in a in an emotional way. And that is why, right, 455 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 3: you ask me what advice I would have for that campaign, 456 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 3: I offer up to two things, right, working class versus 457 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 3: wealthy one. But also like this economic kind of the 458 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 3: importance of this economic vision. So so that's what that 459 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 3: is kind of I think what is driving some of 460 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 3: this softness, but we don't know, and it could be 461 00:28:55,800 --> 00:29:00,239 Speaker 3: different errors based upon different states. Right. You know, there 462 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 3: are other aspects of this too that we hadn't seen 463 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 3: this in point in a while. But like there's a 464 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 3: lot of Hispanic vooks, right, we talked about the Puerto Ricans, well, 465 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 3: right where there's Spanish, and then you know, are we 466 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 3: accurately surveying folks in their native language, right who could 467 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 3: be voting in the degree to which that impacts something? Okay, 468 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 3: that is something in polls I've done over the past. 469 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 3: You see you see very significant differences based upon whether 470 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 3: someone is comfortable speaking their native tongue to a poster 471 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 3: or answering questions in English versus versus Benish. So that 472 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 3: could be something. You know, there are these these This 473 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 3: race is so so very close. The other thing I'm 474 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 3: really struck by, and I'm a crosstob diver, right, is 475 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 3: that there are some extremely high quality polls who show 476 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 3: a double digit gap in favor of Trump among seniors. 477 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 3: CBS poll, it is a CBS poll, for example, has 478 00:29:56,120 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 3: had Trump, uh, you know, had with seniors by fifteen 479 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 3: twelve to fifteen points for months. Okay, there are other 480 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 3: polls who show the opposite almost right, you know, five 481 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:13,080 Speaker 3: or six. So again I don't I can't explain what. 482 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: Is your instinct, kell you on that, on that, on 483 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 1: that variability between them. 484 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 3: The CBS poll, which is I think is one of 485 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 3: the finest, is conducted online by you dove, right, So 486 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 3: it just feels like they, for whatever reason and have 487 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 3: a slightly more democratic leaning sample, right. I think if 488 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 3: if the senior vote is tied, if the senior vote 489 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,960 Speaker 3: is tied, I'd be shocked if Kamala Harris is the 490 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 3: next president, Okay, you know Hillary won that vote. Hillary sorry, 491 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 3: Hillary lost that vote by close to ten points. You know, 492 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen, Biden did very well in closing that 493 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 3: gap to four five or six. If that, if Harris 494 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 3: can continue to close that gap, she's going to be 495 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 3: the president. You know, there's an over a representation of 496 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 3: of of members of that group, of course, especially in 497 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 3: those in those rest belt in those Midwest states, right, 498 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 3: and that's where arguably Biden has had some OF's most 499 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 3: significant Ben Harris administrats, some of the most significant accomplishments. 500 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 3: And by the way, if you ask me what else 501 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 3: I would be suggesting that the VP covering your speech, 502 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 3: I would talk about that that the successes of the 503 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 3: bid Harris administration have an opportunity to be kind of 504 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 3: wiped off the board. So that means insolent priceis that 505 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 3: means prescription drug costs. You know, that means a lot 506 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 3: of other programs that people care about and make a 507 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 3: real difference in lives of working class Americans. 508 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 1: I don't mean to overly put you on the spot here, 509 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 1: but like, let's imagine a scenario where they're where the 510 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 1: outcome of this is a Trump victory, a Republican Senate, 511 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 1: a Democratic House. Who's the leader of the Democratic Party. 512 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 3: We don't know, right, we don't know. We don't know, 513 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 3: we don't know. Is it it is some combination? Right, 514 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,480 Speaker 3: And here's the thing. And I don't know if that's 515 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 3: necessarily a bad answer right now. Okay, obviously you know 516 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 3: came Jefferies in terms of making Washington work. Okay, but 517 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 3: on a natural basis, you know, you have just I 518 00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 3: believe a tremendous amount of of talent right between you know, 519 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,840 Speaker 3: former in that case, right, you'd have former Secretary Pete Buddhage, 520 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 3: You'd have. 521 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 4: Whit murr and and and a variety of kind of 522 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 4: other people who who have been Joshapiro of course, others 523 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 4: who have been so supportive of V. P. 524 00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 3: Harris. But I don't know, and I don't know if 525 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 3: that's not I don't know if that's a bad thing, 526 00:32:56,080 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 3: because I would tell you that if the under that scenario, 527 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,920 Speaker 3: the Democrats need to have a significant, a real, real conversation, 528 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 3: right because you know, getting back to kind of what 529 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 3: I focus on every day, Steve, as younger voters, I 530 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 3: can tell you that every day, okay, every for every 531 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 3: thousand young people who turn from seven to eighteen years 532 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 3: old every day, okay, seven out of ten of those 533 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 3: and have values that are more aligned, you know, with 534 00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 3: the broader Democratic Party's values than maga okay, every single day. Right. 535 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 3: And to the extent to which Democrats don't turn out 536 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 3: younger people and record numbers in this selection and don't 537 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 3: ring up numbers that are beyond what Joe Biden had 538 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty is an incredible lost opportunity in the 539 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 3: short term to govern, you know, to save this democracy, 540 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 3: and longer term for their party. Right. And I would 541 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 3: hope that if your scenario rings true, that there's a 542 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 3: meaningful con station right about how to could have engage 543 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 3: in the modern era of politics and communication. 544 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 2: I pray not. 545 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 1: I certainly hope that agreed that she's going to be elected. 546 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 1: I never had a doubt that Biden was going to win. 547 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 1: I never, In fact, it never occurred to me that 548 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 1: he would be reelected, right, I I really I never 549 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:27,720 Speaker 1: never had a doubt. 550 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:30,479 Speaker 2: I do. 551 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 1: I said to someone earlier today, I have a deep 552 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,359 Speaker 1: faith in the country, and that faith just says to. 553 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 2: Me, no way. 554 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 1: But there's this part of me, this instinct, this voice 555 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,919 Speaker 1: in my head. And for doing this for thirty five years, 556 00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 1: I listened to the voice right and I don't I 557 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 1: don't try to fight it. And and the voice is 558 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 1: different than when we were together in Stamford. It's it's darkened. 559 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:58,799 Speaker 1: And I hope that she will, that she will get 560 00:34:58,840 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 1: over the top. 561 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:01,479 Speaker 2: I don't. 562 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 1: I don't know what else any right minded American UH 563 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:12,280 Speaker 1: needs to see. It's a time where there's tremendous, tremendous 564 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:18,239 Speaker 1: anxiety and transition and fear, and a collapse really of 565 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 1: authority in the media to such a degree that people 566 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: have become unmoored from being able to orient around what's real, 567 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 1: what's delusional, and the debasement of the culture. Rate is 568 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 1: this is this is this is part of the this 569 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,160 Speaker 1: is all part of the cost. You know, it will 570 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 1: be interesting to see, you know, as we look at 571 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 1: these groups, we see signs of realignment. If working class 572 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:57,200 Speaker 1: Latino men, black men, you know, break with Republicans and 573 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,000 Speaker 1: white working class voters, you know, how to white working 574 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 1: class women who are really grievously affected by restrictions on 575 00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 1: their healthcare, their ability to get healthcare, how will they break. 576 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:17,839 Speaker 1: You know, how will immigration stack up versus abortion as 577 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 1: the issue you know that drives that drives people to 578 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 1: the to the polls, and you know the degree to 579 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 1: which there's so much amplification of all the idiocy, all 580 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 1: the noise, all the thunder, and there's just this dichotomy 581 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,320 Speaker 1: that you know, I'm looking over your shoulder in our 582 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 1: in our in our in our picture here, and you know, 583 00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,399 Speaker 1: outside that window, right, I don't see any of the 584 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 1: madness or outside my wind right, you know in real 585 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 1: life that you see manifested in the political coverage. And 586 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 1: so we just are going to have to wait and see. 587 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,880 Speaker 1: Do you have a number, and then I'll let you 588 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,240 Speaker 1: go that you think is going to be the number 589 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 1: that shows up to vote in total? Somewhere north of 590 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty million, I imagine, is what you 591 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be. But is it gonna Is it 592 00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 1: gonna go north of one hundred and sixty three, one 593 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two? Is it going to break the 594 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 1: break any records? 595 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,360 Speaker 2: Here? 596 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 3: Yeah? I listen, that's not I take the council of 597 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,600 Speaker 3: others who spend more time on that particular on that 598 00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:31,840 Speaker 3: particular question. But given what my numbers say in terms 599 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,640 Speaker 3: of on youth relative to what we saw in the 600 00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,279 Speaker 3: recent past, and what others who are smarter than me 601 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,640 Speaker 3: on this think is that you know, we don't get 602 00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:40,719 Speaker 3: it's not record breaking the year. We don't get to 603 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 3: where we were and in twenty twenty. That's my that 604 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 3: is my that is my sense of it, and what 605 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,920 Speaker 3: I say to my kids, you know, who are in 606 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:55,080 Speaker 3: their especially my daughters who are in there, you know, 607 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,399 Speaker 3: early in mid twenties, and we need to prepare for anything, right, 608 00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 3: And you talked about that so eloquently when we were 609 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,640 Speaker 3: when we were lasted together, and they don't feel prepared. 610 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,400 Speaker 3: You know that that the media that they're consuming in 611 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,320 Speaker 3: New York City and Washington, d c. Is really not 612 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,279 Speaker 3: reflective of I think the potential reality that we're talking about, right, 613 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 3: which is you know that that's certainly kind of return 614 00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 3: by by Trump and all that all that means as 615 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,799 Speaker 3: as as leader again, and I think we just need 616 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 3: to be honest and talk about that conversation. And again, 617 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:32,760 Speaker 3: we can play it out a couple of different ways, 618 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,319 Speaker 3: but I think that's the reality. And people need to 619 00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 3: stress out about too much. But work work for you know, 620 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,640 Speaker 3: work against it and if that's what you are over 621 00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,800 Speaker 3: the next couple of days and then to be prepared 622 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:44,560 Speaker 3: for it next week. 623 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:48,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, enorm mistakes on the line. I appreciate it very much. 624 00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,200 Speaker 1: You taking the time of week out from the election. 625 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 1: What I say to everybody watching and listening, even one 626 00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:57,720 Speaker 1: of the foremost experts in public opinion research, right now, 627 00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 1: it's really impossible, uh to call to predict. This is 628 00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 1: very much in the hands of the American people, and 629 00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,560 Speaker 1: if you have any sense of the history of the country, 630 00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,359 Speaker 1: we have had many long nights where everything was on 631 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:20,200 Speaker 1: the line, and hopefully Winston Churchill's admonition that in the 632 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:24,040 Speaker 1: end Americans do the right thing, though we exhaust every 633 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 1: possibility before doing it holds here, and we do not 634 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:33,560 Speaker 1: elect somebody. I think that is demonstrated quite clearly that 635 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 1: he's a fascist and comfortable around fascists. And it's hard 636 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:45,320 Speaker 1: to see how catastrophe doesn't roll out of what Bob 637 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: Woodward describes in the book and all of the people 638 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,880 Speaker 1: that would roll in the government with Trump. So we 639 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,600 Speaker 1: have a week to decide, and it's always been the case. 640 00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,839 Speaker 1: This is the sixtieth time the country is doing this 641 00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,520 Speaker 1: and even the most pessimistic amongst us. I want you 642 00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,399 Speaker 1: to understand this. We will do it again. We will 643 00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:10,799 Speaker 1: have an election in four years. The United States will 644 00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,560 Speaker 1: not disappear. Even if Donald Trump raises his hand and 645 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:16,759 Speaker 1: takes the oath, he can do a lot of damage. 646 00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:21,280 Speaker 1: But we have a very complex, very resilient society and 647 00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,560 Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. But John del Volpe, thank you 648 00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:25,960 Speaker 1: very much for your time today. 649 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:28,880 Speaker 3: All Right, Steve, thanks so much, you bet. 650 00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:29,120 Speaker 2: Thank you. 651 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 1: I'm Steve Schmidt. This is the warning and I invite 652 00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:36,880 Speaker 1: you to join. Subscribe on our substack, on our YouTube channel, 653 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,080 Speaker 1: follow us. Welcome to the community.