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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Andrew Sheets is

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Speaker 1: chief cross strategist at Morgan Stanley. He has to synthesize together,

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Speaker 1: piece together all of what Morgan Stanley is doing. Andrew,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to suggest in August, your head is spinning.

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Speaker 1: We've got to get from August to September. What are

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Speaker 1: we gonna look like in September? Well, thanks Tom so

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Speaker 1: so much. I do think markets are in this interesting pause,

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Speaker 1: this interesting quiet before you. A lot of incredibly important

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Speaker 1: events that are all arriving in September October. Right, we

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Speaker 1: have an important FED meeting in September where we think

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Speaker 1: the Fed's gonna hike another fifty basis points. We have

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Speaker 1: inflation that's going to be coming down, but we think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be coming down slower than probably the FED

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Speaker 1: would like. And then you also have a very important

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Speaker 1: earning season where we think the numbers are going to

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Speaker 1: get reduced further into third quarter earnings. So I think

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Speaker 1: at the moment, you know, the market has been getting

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Speaker 1: some relief from the fact that inflation has been a

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Speaker 1: little bit better. Sentiment was was very barish. You've had

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Speaker 1: some better than expected economic data. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: these issues have been resolved. And we still think that

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Speaker 1: the Fed has more to go and then also will

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Speaker 1: ease policy less next year as they want to stay

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Speaker 1: serious about inflation and two at times, and I'll say

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Speaker 1: this for you, I think even the team of unfatty

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Speaker 1: being characterized described as perma bess, you won't spring. In fact,

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Speaker 1: you were out front saying, let's buy this market, let's go,

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Speaker 1: let's go, let's go. Can you tell me the difference

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Speaker 1: between now and them? Because if there were a lot

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Speaker 1: of people that conditioned by that experience andry, they just

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Speaker 1: remember people tanning them, don't buy this, don't buy this.

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Speaker 1: And then we got down the road off the lows

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Speaker 1: and they realized that ms the rally andrew what's the

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Speaker 1: difference between now and them? What are the signals that

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Speaker 1: would triggered then that you said by that aren't being

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Speaker 1: triggered now, yeah, thanks, thanks Jonathans. So I think there

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Speaker 1: are a number of early big differences. I think in

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Speaker 1: early after after that market decline, you had a lot

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Speaker 1: of very early cycle signals. You had very depressed economic data,

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Speaker 1: very depressed sentiment. Importantly, very easy monetary policy with very

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Speaker 1: low inflation. Remember we had that kind of infamous negative

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Speaker 1: number of traded for a barrel of oil, and you

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Speaker 1: had very low valuations are much much lower valuations, all

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Speaker 1: those things coming together, a lot of things that you

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Speaker 1: usually get kind of around around a recession. Now, I

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Speaker 1: think as we kind of fast forward to today, I mean,

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Speaker 1: valuations aren't necessarily expensive on all asset classes, but they're

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Speaker 1: they're nowhere near as cheap as they were in early

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Speaker 1: But I think more importantly that the Monterey policy backdrop

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Speaker 1: is night and day. It's it's gone from kind of

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Speaker 1: whatever whatever it takes response to an unprecedented pandemic to

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the fastest paces of rate hikes

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Speaker 1: that we've seen in the last thirty years in attempting

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Speaker 1: to get in front of some of the highest rates

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Speaker 1: of inflation we've seen in the last forty years. So

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Speaker 1: I think it's that that resolve from central banks, especially

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Speaker 1: the FED, that we think continues. That's one of the

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Speaker 1: big differences. So, Andrew, all of that makes logical sense.

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Speaker 1: And yet we've seen the return of the meme stocks

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Speaker 1: in recent weeks, speculative behavior that we all thought was

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Speaker 1: going to be long gone in an era in which

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Speaker 1: central banks are tightening policy. What kind of signal does

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Speaker 1: that send to you? And how hard do you think

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is going to have to push back

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Speaker 1: against that kind of behavior. Yeah, thanks, Kelly, And so

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Speaker 1: this is a great question. I mean, anytime you're on

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Speaker 1: the more cautious end of the spectrum and you're incorrect

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Speaker 1: about that, I think, as as we've been over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, you do need to think hard

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Speaker 1: about that thesis and if you're missing something, And I

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Speaker 1: think if it was a rally that was being led

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Speaker 1: by by new leadership, cyclical leadership, a sign that you know,

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Speaker 1: we've had the worst of the slowdown behind us and

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Speaker 1: things are going to ret re accelerate, I think I

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Speaker 1: think that would actually be a very encouraging sign. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think that would be the sign that this really

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Speaker 1: is a mid cycle slowdown or or we've already had

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Speaker 1: the sell off off of recession. But I think the

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Speaker 1: the re emergence of some of the biggest beneficiaries of

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Speaker 1: of low rates, zero rates, quantitative easing in one that

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Speaker 1: that doesn't feel like kind of a new cycle starting.

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Speaker 1: That feels a little bit more like shorts being squeezed,

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Speaker 1: investors being fearful of missing out, a sentiment maybe not

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Speaker 1: being as depressed as we otherwise might like to think. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, I also think from a FED perspective, the

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Speaker 1: FED has to think about financial conditions, and it's goal

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Speaker 1: is to tighten financial conditions. And so again, you know,

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Speaker 1: as we've seen stocks bounce back, and as we've seen

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Speaker 1: some the most speculative areas of the market bounce back,

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Speaker 1: that's that's going against one of the things that FED

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Speaker 1: is trying to accomplish. So, Andrew, when do we get

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Speaker 1: the wake up cold? What's the wake up co look like?

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Speaker 1: What do you anticipating? Is it one speech from Chairman

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Speaker 1: Pound next week at Jackson Home, Wyoming? Is the data?

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Speaker 1: What is it? Yeah? So I think it's a it's

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Speaker 1: a number of things I think we need to look

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Speaker 1: out for. And again, I do think this upcoming window

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Speaker 1: for markets is pretty important. I think if you know

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Speaker 1: if worse things are going to happen, or if trouble

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Speaker 1: is going to emerge, it's it's going to happen in

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Speaker 1: the next the next two months, or it's not going

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Speaker 1: to happen. So I think that trouble would come from

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Speaker 1: inflation not coming down as fast as expected. So the

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Speaker 1: upcoming CPI, especially core CPI, core PCE not declining UM

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Speaker 1: as much as the Fed would like. I think that

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Speaker 1: would push the Fed and push the market to to

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Speaker 1: remove their rate cut expectations from next year. And we

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Speaker 1: like pushing against those rate cut expectations next year. We

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Speaker 1: also like being along the dollar for those reasons. And

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Speaker 1: then it's the earnings out. I mean this has been

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Speaker 1: something that might calla Mike Wilson in the US or

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Speaker 1: my Colleaguraham sector in Europe have been very focused on.

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Speaker 1: Is is a view that the earnings expectations they think

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Speaker 1: are too high. Now the third quarter is often a

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Speaker 1: relatively weak quarter seasonally for earnings. That's often when companies

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Speaker 1: come out and take guidance down. We'll see if that

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Speaker 1: happens again. But our expectation or are concern is that

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Speaker 1: the risk of that is is still elevated, and we'd

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Speaker 1: like to get through that third quarter earning season. First,

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Speaker 1: What do you owned the front half of this year?

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Speaker 1: That's for sure. The second half is up for Graps

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Speaker 1: Andrew shake Samo can stand the andre also as a waite.

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Speaker 1: What's important is to watch flows and when it's August

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Speaker 1: and it's slow, flows really matter. Uh uh. Emily Garfao

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Speaker 1: over at our asset division, reporting today on a massive

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Speaker 1: switch and flows that we've seen in the equity income

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Speaker 1: and this is all wrapped around quality. The search for

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Speaker 1: quality is seen and flows. Kelsey Barrow on the bond side,

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Speaker 1: fixed income portfolio manager, JP Morgan Management, Emily Grafo was

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Speaker 1: looking at the equity market, what do you see in

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Speaker 1: flows in bounds? And you and Bob Michael look at

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Speaker 1: the screen, what do flows look like? Yeah, so we've

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Speaker 1: seen some pretty large moves within the fixed income market

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Speaker 1: over the last few months. So if you think about

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Speaker 1: what the market was pricing in terms of recession probabilities

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Speaker 1: implied within triple B spreads or the equity market, it

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Speaker 1: was as high as around eighty percent in mid June.

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Speaker 1: Now that's down to about so we've seen a very

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Speaker 1: large retracement in in high yield spreads down to the

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Speaker 1: mid to low four hundreds. And what we feel in

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Speaker 1: terms of that movement is we understand why there's been

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Speaker 1: a repricing. There is an increased probability of a soft

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Speaker 1: landing that at this point, this level of spread is

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Speaker 1: really no longer protecting you from the still material risk

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Speaker 1: of hard landing, UM if inflation remains stickier, which is

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Speaker 1: our base case. Okay, Cassie, So what is that lefth

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Speaker 1: the treasury market and how that's priced right now? You

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Speaker 1: more comfortable with that? Chris haf You Wells Fargo wrote

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Speaker 1: this in the last twenty four hours, the eight pril's

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Speaker 1: five basis point in version seems to have got more

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Speaker 1: attention than the almost fifty basis point in version we

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Speaker 1: had last week. Why do you think that is? Well,

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Speaker 1: we've been positioned for curve flatteners. Uh. I know, I

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Speaker 1: was last here on July six. We were calling for

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Speaker 1: higher front end yields on a flatter curve. The twos

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Speaker 1: tends curve is now thirty basis points flatter um, and

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Speaker 1: we think that that makes sense. The Fed has done

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Speaker 1: two supersized rate hikes now what we're looking at. So

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Speaker 1: the market is pricing in uh, the FED funds rate

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Speaker 1: getting to around three and a half percent by the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. That's basically in line with the FED.

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Speaker 1: The real divergence comes in where the market is pricing

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Speaker 1: rate cuts and the Fed is expecting to continue to hike,

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Speaker 1: And I think the minutes gave us some insight into that.

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Speaker 1: I noticed one of the things that that stood out

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Speaker 1: to me was the fact that there are a number

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Speaker 1: of people on the committee that expect that once they

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Speaker 1: get the policy rate to rest directive, they're actually gonna

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Speaker 1: need to keep it there for a period of time.

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Speaker 1: And we are lean on that side expecting that the

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Speaker 1: Fed is going to need to keep policy rates higher

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Speaker 1: because although we got one decent inflation report, we're still

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Speaker 1: seeing a lot of wage pressure. And one of the

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Speaker 1: data points that that we thought really was under underappreciated

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Speaker 1: last week was unit labor costs productivity adjusted wages, which

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Speaker 1: is also still very strong relative to previous cycles. Then

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Speaker 1: cassy previous hiking cycles. How much longer do you think

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Speaker 1: they're going to keep it at that terminal? Right? That peak? Right?

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Speaker 1: The Fed in this hiking cycle relative to psychos gone by. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So we looked back at the last four or five

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Speaker 1: six hiking cycles, all kind of the modern hiking cycles

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Speaker 1: that you'd think of, and a couple of things stood

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Speaker 1: out to us. One, the Fed never stops hiking rates

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Speaker 1: when the real Fed funds rate is still negative. So,

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Speaker 1: just to put it out there, the real Fed funds

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Speaker 1: rate is still minus six percent if you deflated by

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Speaker 1: headline CPI. So they still have a lot more to go.

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Speaker 1: But in terms of how long they're going to keep

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Speaker 1: policy and restrictive, on average, we see that the Fed

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Speaker 1: keeps rates uh at that terminal rate for about seven

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Speaker 1: to twelve months, so about a year. Uh. And we

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Speaker 1: think given the magnitude of the inflation problem, given the

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Speaker 1: fact that the unemployment rate actually continues to take down

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Speaker 1: despite you know, we'll watch initial claims later this morning, uh,

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Speaker 1: and so we expect them to to be more in

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Speaker 1: line with the historical average of the last four tightening cycles. Well,

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Speaker 1: while we're looking back at history, let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: seventies as well, because I noticed some research out of

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Speaker 1: Berkeley's on credit earlier this week, essentially saying, when you

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Speaker 1: look at this inflation and growth environment and it's most

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Speaker 1: akin to nineteen seventy to ninety to nine eighty, both

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Speaker 1: periods which were not good for credit, and they say

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Speaker 1: this time isn't going to be different, will it. We

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Speaker 1: are a little bit more cautious on specifically high yield

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Speaker 1: give the retracement we've seen there, there are probably some

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Speaker 1: things that are are going to uh, you know, put

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Speaker 1: some resistance below four hundred on high yield spreads. One,

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Speaker 1: we do expect that issuance is going to start picking up. Also,

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Speaker 1: if you you know, break it down between the categories, uh,

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Speaker 1: within the high yield, one of the areas where you're

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Speaker 1: going to really need to see a lot of retracement

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Speaker 1: to get spreads materially tighter would be triple c's And

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Speaker 1: these lower quality companies are starting to feel the pinch

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Speaker 1: of higher prices, higher interest rates UM. And so you

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Speaker 1: know where we're more focused is in short dated investment

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Speaker 1: grade credits or higher quality as well as short dated

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Speaker 1: securitized credit. These have better break evens, they have better

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Speaker 1: all in yields UM. We can feel more comfortable with

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Speaker 1: the credit quality. And if you look at how they

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Speaker 1: performed in this rally. They've they've kind of lagged relative

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Speaker 1: to the US high yield market where what high yield

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Speaker 1: spreads need to get to in order for it to

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Speaker 1: look attractive. Well, back in June we got around six hundred,

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Speaker 1: and at that point we thought that we were at

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Speaker 1: least starting to price in UH and get compensated for

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Speaker 1: those risks of harder landing for an increase in defaults. Now,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to ignore the fact that on a

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Speaker 1: high level, credit fundamentals are still extremely strong. UH. We're

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Speaker 1: starting from a very good point for both investment grade

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Speaker 1: and high old companies, high cash balances. They've termed out

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Speaker 1: their debt, their leverages is on track and looks good

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Speaker 1: um relative to pre COVID, But we do have to

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Speaker 1: realize that where we are in the cycle, things are

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Speaker 1: going to deteriorate from here. Margins seem to hold up

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Speaker 1: actually better in this last earnings report, but we do

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Speaker 1: see that that that's not something that's going to be

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Speaker 1: sustainable as inflation pressures remain. You can see just awesome

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Speaker 1: as always and wonderful to cashop again here in New York,

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Speaker 1: Cassey better with that of JP morgan Esset Management. My recollection.

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Speaker 1: John Is Francisco Blanche has loved to charge on over

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Speaker 1: a hundred dollars of barrel on Brent. When he said it,

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Speaker 1: it was a shock. He's had a global Commodities and

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Speaker 1: derivative research at Bank of American joins us today. Francisco,

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Speaker 1: I want to touch on one paragraph in your new

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Speaker 1: report which was shocking, and Kayley wants to pick up

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Speaker 1: on the news of the day. You tore about tore

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Speaker 1: apart our key distal it which is a forty seven

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Speaker 1: thousand gallons on a Boeing seven seventies seven that all

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Speaker 1: of us need, that we all take for granted when

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Speaker 1: we fly around domestically and internationally. You say, watch jet fuel.

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Speaker 1: Why well, look Tom, and I think we have We

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Speaker 1: still have China, and lookdown we have large sports of

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Speaker 1: Asia also in partial lookdown when it comes to international

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Speaker 1: travel and um, and I think that's gonna open up

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Speaker 1: in the next sixth both months we are down on

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Speaker 1: Jeff field Man globally from pre of the levels, um,

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Speaker 1: we could see a pickup of half a million barrels day,

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Speaker 1: maybe more just on that front alone. And again this

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Speaker 1: has been the leading fuel in the last twelve months.

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Speaker 1: I expected to be the leading fuel the next twelve months.

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Speaker 1: How will they come over to Brent Cruz price. Can

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Speaker 1: you extrapolate over from the new Pacific RIM demand over

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Speaker 1: to over a hundred dollars of barrel brand? I'm definitely

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Speaker 1: constructive on brand right here. We've we've pulled back after

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Speaker 1: the seasonal driving peak in America. But I think coming

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Speaker 1: into the winter, you're gonna have jet fuel demand. You're

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Speaker 1: going to have demand from Europe because of the record

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Speaker 1: high natural press you have there um and and also

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Speaker 1: remember um we still have a very tight global refining

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Speaker 1: system for for variety of reasons. So all of that

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Speaker 1: I think is gonna drag us back higher. I've got

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Speaker 1: fourteen themes. I have to go to the social reality

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Speaker 1: that Europe faces. This is not about math, It's not

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Speaker 1: about spreads, crack spreads and the rest of it. It's

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Speaker 1: about multiple multip post standard deviation moves that become social policy.

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Speaker 1: Tell us how your world can help Europe and this

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Speaker 1: crushing social policy of where prices are electricity in France

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Speaker 1: as an example, Well, Europe faces an obviously a very

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Speaker 1: complicated situation. If you look at European natural gas um right,

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Speaker 1: I mean comes from Russia used to come from Russia,

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Speaker 1: and you've lost right around um, you've lost right around

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Speaker 1: ten percent of the entire energy supply of Europe with

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Speaker 1: Russia curtailing that gas um other things man equal, that

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Speaker 1: would that would mean a ten percent GDP contraction. And

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Speaker 1: what's happening right now Essentially Europe is trying to price

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Speaker 1: itself back into the global economy, so to speak, by

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Speaker 1: attracting liquid gas from Japan from China bringing it to

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Speaker 1: the European continent. But also importantly we're seeing the shutdown

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Speaker 1: of zinc smelters, aluminum smelters, um steel plants, and fertilizer capacity,

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Speaker 1: so that that's all important. Again. So essentially all European

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Speaker 1: energy prices are rising above global prices, but importantly a

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Speaker 1: lot of the domestic produced energy intensive commodities like steel

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Speaker 1: and what have you are also being displaced out um.

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Speaker 1: And and that's the way Europe is going to avoid

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Speaker 1: a very very steep recession and probably end up with

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Speaker 1: just the mile That's that's essentially approach we're going through. Well, Francisco.

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Speaker 1: What I find so ironic about frances Nuclear was supposed

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Speaker 1: to help them out and yet because of the climate

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Speaker 1: issues in the river temperatures, it also is inhibiting their

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Speaker 1: ability to use that power, which brings me to clean energy.

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Speaker 1: There is now moves in the US after the signing

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Speaker 1: of the Inflation Reduction Act. In that effort, there's also

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Speaker 1: metrics within that, like a methane tax for example, for

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Speaker 1: US producers. How is that ultimately going to affect supply

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Speaker 1: of fossil fuels? Well? Um one of the hardest parts,

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Speaker 1: right that we often forget is that the COVID collapse

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Speaker 1: in demand also brought about a collapse in investment. Um so,

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Speaker 1: was not just the demand shock, was also a supply shock.

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Speaker 1: We had negative oil prices. We had um we had

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Speaker 1: natural gas in Europe TTF at one dollar per m

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Speaker 1: b tu, which is the same gas US trading at

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Speaker 1: eighty bucks and m btu right, almost like like a

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Speaker 1: cryptocurrency if you like, and not precisely Bitcoin, one of

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Speaker 1: the more extreme ones. And this is a real commodity

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Speaker 1: that actually people use every day. So um so, I think,

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Speaker 1: I think false health fuels have have a tough future

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Speaker 1: ahead of them because nobody wants to sign long term

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Speaker 1: call leases, right um and and and no financial institution

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Speaker 1: or no major France institution wants to be financing thermal

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Speaker 1: coal either. Uh, it's hard to get financing for conventional

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Speaker 1: oil and gas or or or just shell gas. So

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Speaker 1: I think I think the issue is is going to

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Speaker 1: be in the medium term. We are trying to move

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Speaker 1: very fast into into a greener economy because we have

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Speaker 1: this pressure is coming from climate and we've seen them. Right.

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Speaker 1: Part of the problem you talked for nukes. Part of

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Speaker 1: the issue in the with the French nukes is that

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Speaker 1: we don't have enough water on European rivers, which is

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Speaker 1: a function of glaciers melting fast. Right, So we're starting

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Speaker 1: to get all the compounded effects of climate change across

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Speaker 1: the energy supply system. UM and and and I think, um,

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Speaker 1: I think it's obviously very important to move quick to

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Speaker 1: green fuels, but at the same time we have this gap.

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Speaker 1: And unfortunately, remember prices are just the balancing item for

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Speaker 1: supply and demanding commodity markets, and we continue to expect

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Speaker 1: very high volatility um continued inflation and of course a

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Speaker 1: lot of basis risks in terms of differentials, time spreads,

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Speaker 1: and cross commodities across the complex. So I I just

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Speaker 1: don't think. I think commodity markets are going to give

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Speaker 1: us a solution, but it's all gonna be extreme pricing

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Speaker 1: for a while and we remain constructive on the complex. Francisco,

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Speaker 1: I've got thirty seconds left. Can you tell me what

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Speaker 1: you think Eupe looks like this winter? We're going do

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Speaker 1: a four day work week. What's going to happen with

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Speaker 1: the effort to curve consumption? Um? Well, Europe is going

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Speaker 1: to is going to to curve consumption by by definition,

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Speaker 1: it's as I mentioned at the very beginning, it's happening already,

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Speaker 1: um with with curt elements to to uh of energy

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Speaker 1: supplight to industry, but also curt elements of uh um

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Speaker 1: temperatures at home during the summer and during the winter

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Speaker 1: as well. Right, so we're going to see UM forced

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Speaker 1: reductions potentially potentially rolling brownouts in some parts of Europe. Right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is what what what it looks like.

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Speaker 1: And it's almost, you know, it's almost like like the

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Speaker 1: developed markets are becoming emerging markets and and in in

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Speaker 1: a in a in a weird kind of way. So Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bank America Global Research, Francisco, awesome. As always, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go right to it. You know what I care about,

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Speaker 1: Dan ives, which is the chips that are in all

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Speaker 1: these miracle toys we use. The the new Apple phone

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Speaker 1: in September, we'll have the A sixteen chip, which is

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Speaker 1: five nanometer technology. Blah blah blah. Is that enough to

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Speaker 1: get Kaylee Lines to buy a new phone? I think

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Speaker 1: it's Kellie and about forty million others because I think,

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Speaker 1: what were you're really gonna see here? This is a

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Speaker 1: catalyst that speaks of the pen up demand that we

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Speaker 1: see across the installing She woundered forty million of a

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Speaker 1: billion iPhones worldwide have not upgrading three and a half years.

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Speaker 1: And I think this is still significantly underestimated by the street. Dan.

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Speaker 1: I take huge issues, as I know you do, with

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Speaker 1: the way the media tosses out O MG, why would

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Speaker 1: anybody buy a nine hundred dollar toy? What percentage of

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Speaker 1: us are buying this on a monthly plan? And has

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Speaker 1: that worked out for Apple and frankly for the cell

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Speaker 1: phone providers? Well, it has that's about from from a

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Speaker 1: monthly perspective, and you put that together, it's ultimately, especially

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Speaker 1: when we were going to be a hundred increase on

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Speaker 1: the iPhone pro pro mact. It's become more than jestable.

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Speaker 1: Remember you haven't had a price increase and call it

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Speaker 1: four or five years. I think you're starting to keep

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Speaker 1: consumers now more and more look at a thousand hour

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Speaker 1: iPhones has really pay the price of what they expect

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Speaker 1: to be. When it comes to Apple, what about in China.

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Speaker 1: I understand that the U S consumer is in a

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Speaker 1: pretty healthy position, but we've actually seen Apple doing discounting

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Speaker 1: in China on higher end models. That's a pretty important

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Speaker 1: market for them. What is your read on how that's going. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a great question. I think in China, re estimate

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Speaker 1: about of the Chinese consumers in terms of iPhones are

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Speaker 1: in the window of an upgrade opportunity and actually more

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Speaker 1: and more pushing towards the higher a sp throw pro mac.

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Speaker 1: That's very important is this all plays out, because that's

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Speaker 1: the hearts and lungs of the Apple bull story. And

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Speaker 1: I can tell you this week our checks in Asia

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Speaker 1: basically showing firm demand in terms of coming out of

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Speaker 1: the gates drive on four teams, which looks like the

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Speaker 1: lawn state you know called first week after Labor Day. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: September seven, is coming up quick. Dan. Of course for me,

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Speaker 1: I have a ton of Apple products. It's more about

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Speaker 1: the ecosystem because my phone connects to my watch, I

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Speaker 1: get eye messages on my Mac laptop. I have the

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Speaker 1: AirPods that hook up steamlessly to my phone. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's the whole thing. When people upgrade an iPhone, what

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Speaker 1: about the rest of it? Both services, that's really been

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Speaker 1: the key to the valuation rereading that we've seen. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's going to be ninety billion of annual revenue going

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Speaker 1: into next year, and and and that's why they have

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Speaker 1: a golden and all baseps on mapp. Then I want

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Speaker 1: to get through this quickly just because of time. The

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Speaker 1: one percent text on share by backs, is that going

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Speaker 1: to ruin your world? The Danais world. I view it

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Speaker 1: as noise is not going to change. Okay, I want

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Speaker 1: you to frame for all the gloomsters out there and Apple.

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Speaker 1: Now you're by on Apple three years out? Where is

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Speaker 1: this a hundred and seventy dollar stock? Well, peters will

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Speaker 1: continue to eat an Apple. I view this is and

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Speaker 1: it exceeds three trillion mark app to twenties are base case,

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Speaker 1: to forties are bull kids. And this just continues to

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Speaker 1: be what I view in the middle inning of just

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Speaker 1: an unpressed made upgrade cycle despite the dark storm cloud, Dan,

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Speaker 1: I thank you so much. Thank you for your work

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Speaker 1: at Wedbush supposed to have been extraordinary on this hugely

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Speaker 1: popular part of the market. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

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Speaker 1: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television

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